AirDNA's 2025 Mid-Year Report: Why Market Predictions Come With a Big Asterisk.
On this episode of the Real Estate Education Podcast, Erin and James dive into AirDNA's mid-year STR market report, which shows steady recovery from the 2023 Airbnb bust with occupancy rates projected to hit just below 56% in 2026—above pre-pandemic averages. While the data suggests continued balance between supply and demand, the hosts emphasize the report's major caveat: unprecedented policy uncertainty at the national level makes these projections far less reliable than in previous years.
The conversation shifts to a troubling trend in the housing market where sellers are pulling listings at record rates—up 47% from last year according to Realtor.com data. With 13 out of every 100 homes being withdrawn from the market (compared to just 6 in 2022), the hosts explore what this "delisting surge" means for both buyers and rental property owners, particularly how failed sales are creating increased competition in the rental market.
Reach Out
Interested in consulting with Erin? Email erin@erinspradlin.com
Work with James: James@JamesCarlsonRe.com
Also in this episode:
- How booking behavior has shifted dramatically—42% of all US bookings now made within two weeks
- Why Erin advises underpricing rentals initially rather than starting high and dropping prices
- The impact of sellers remaining "anchored to peak era expectations" on market dynamics
- Personal lessons on avoiding difficult conversations (featuring Erin's pickleball tournament dilemma)
- Concerns about institutional investors and foreign cash buyers changing the investment landscape
Whether you're an STR owner navigating shifting booking patterns, considering your first rental property investment, or trying to understand why the housing market feels so unpredictable, this episode provides crucial context for 2025's unique challenges. The hosts remind listeners that while data shows gradual improvement, the current environment of rapid change—from AI to political upheaval—makes traditional real estate assumptions worth questioning.
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