College Football Betting Preview with Tim Murray

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Welcome to the solid verbal hull. That for me, I'm
a man, I'm forty. I've heard so many players say, well,
I want to be happy. You want to be happy
for a day? Edith State is that woo woom? And
them and Tie.

Speaker 2 (00:18):
Dan Robertstein will welcome back to the pod Migrating good Friend.
As you know, next week gonna be starting up previews. Yes, sir,
this is our last episode before we dive in officially
to the college football preseason.

Speaker 1 (00:35):
We're gonna lead off.

Speaker 2 (00:37):
Our preview coverage by doing what we did last year,
the intro to the twenty twenty five season. Then we're
going to give you the rest of the week off.
But when we come back from the July fourth holiday,
we flip the switches. We go to three a week.
We're going to start talking through the group of six conferences.

Speaker 1 (00:53):
All this this is the time of year that I
like to call the Thai Romance season. Here we go,
Tie loves with his whole heart. Tie decides whether or
not Ty is like what was the show man? I remember? Okay,

(01:14):
So it was Lorenzo Lamas who was like a former
model actor. Right, he had the laser pointer where it
was called I almost called, like are you hot or not?
Or that was the website that there was? You can
look this up as I'm speaking almost positive Lorenzo Lamas.
I apologize if it was not Lorenzo Lamas with a
laser pointer, look up the name of the show, Ty.
We want to be accurate here. But he would decide

(01:37):
whether or not somebody was attractive enough, and while evaluating
to them, Let's be clear, not a picture. I don't
believe in person would circle problematic areas on their body,
like you can't be a nine because this is what
your knees look like. I believe it. Are you hot?
The search for America's Sexiest People?

Speaker 2 (01:57):
And was it Lorenzo Lamas? It was lorenzol Did he
have a laser pointer? He did have a laser pointer yet,
oh my god.

Speaker 1 (02:03):
The show was.

Speaker 2 (02:03):
Widely criticized for its superficial premise yeh or judging problematic
elements to evaluating somebody to their face.

Speaker 1 (02:12):
With a laser pointer. But I guess it's better than
doing it with a picture. You know, it's a little
more honest, I guess. But this is the time of
year where Ty is searching for hotness in this sport
you know, I'm just trying to, you know, play things
even handed. Ty I'm just trying to be as objective
as possible. But Tye allows himself to be intellectually aroused

(02:33):
by what he learns as he's studying college football. So
he's taking the proverbial laser pointer to you know, your Indiana's,
your NC States, your Stanford's, your USC's, your Oregons, and
he's deciding whether or not it gets his blood pumping.

Speaker 2 (02:49):
I just sent you a completely ridiculous screen grab from
this show.

Speaker 1 (02:54):
Yes, oh, and yeah, he's wearing the yellow tinted glasses,
which I don't know if that helped him see where
his laser was ending up and look, great head of hair,
attractive guy. But it was what we it was, my
guess is nineteen ninety eight, two thousand and three. I
don't know when. It was a different time, ty.

Speaker 2 (03:14):
It was definitely a different ty It was two thousand
and three, by the way, so was.

Speaker 1 (03:18):
Two thousand and three Rubenstein. So this is all a
preamble in a way of saying, uh, I guess we're
building our whole preview season out of a Lorenzo Lamis theme.
Now you can do that if we won. I mean,
it's an option. It is an option.

Speaker 2 (03:33):
We still have not necessarily put together our format. So
there is an opening here for Lamis. Should we be
ever so inclined?

Speaker 1 (03:42):
Yeah, we can talk about our laser point, I mean,
can we can come up with a laser pointer sound?
Even though I believe laser pointers were silent.

Speaker 2 (03:50):
It was dubbed the Lorenzo Lamis flawfinder. Oh my god,
that's good branding. It's problematic thinking. It's good branding.

Speaker 1 (03:59):
We can use that.

Speaker 2 (04:00):
We can use the Dan Rubinstein and the Ty hilden
Brand flawfinder.

Speaker 1 (04:03):
Oh my god, the flawfinder, the laser pointer, audio laser pointer.
You know, it's a reference that everybody's gonna understand immediately
listening to a show in twenty twenty five, a twenty
two year old reality show that is looked back upon harshly.
We're going to using a college football theme out of it.
I want to use this now, I do too. I
want it came about organically. Yeah, we're ready. This is

(04:25):
how we put our content together.

Speaker 2 (04:27):
Well, welcome back one and all, Hit follow, hit subscribe
if you enjoyed that Forballers dot com, rb Lars dot
com I'm using the sing song voice a little bit
more just for you, Dan Rubinstein. Yep, that is where
you can go get access to the shows a little
bit early without the ads playing the games. We're working
on the games. Those are going to be coming up
here as we get a little bit closer to the season.

(04:49):
I wanted to do this episode though for a couple
of years we haven't had a chance to do it.
But finally we gave ourselves a bit of an opening
here where we can bring our friend Tim Murray genuinely
our friend in the desert. Of course, Tim Murray works
for v SIN, also the host of the Vson College
Football Betting podcast. We have had questions about this. I

(05:11):
can't even tell you how many years running, people asking
us bring a betting guy on, Bring somebody who understands
sports gambling, understands lines, understands that side of the business.

Speaker 1 (05:22):
I understand.

Speaker 2 (05:23):
I know there is a balance that we need to
walk when we do an episode like this. Because we
have a good chunk of our listeners who don't care
at all about college football betting, we also have a
great number of people who do. Most of the people
who listen are probably somewhere in the middle. But we
have always taken the tact on this show that it's
useful information. Whether you bet or not, it doesn't matter
to us. But point spreads, win totals, things of that nature.

(05:47):
It's useful information. It helps guide the conversation. That's why
we've brought it up on this show quite literally every
year when we have previewed teams, every year, when we
have previewed games dating back to two thousand and eight.

Speaker 1 (06:00):
We just think it's an interesting part of the sport.
That would be silly to fully ignore it. Yeah, it'd
be silly to ignore it. So we've incorporated that into
the way that we cover the sport, and over the
course of many years, we've gotten a variety of questions
as to what influences point spreads, How should I go
about betting?

Speaker 2 (06:20):
Is a letdown look ahead sandwich really a real thing
that we should pay attention to, or is it just
these two idiots coming up with the SoundBite to play
on the podcast. Sure, stuff like that. We're gonna frame
it up. We're gonna pose it to Tim here over
the next hour. So we're gonna do a little bit
of a gambling preview, but we're not gonna go too
deep in the weeds that it's going to put you off.
If that's not your cup of tea, that makes sense.

Speaker 1 (06:42):
It does, all right, Dan joining us now he is.

Speaker 2 (06:47):
He's our friend in the desert. I don't know, true,
I don't know how else to classify this guy. He's
our friend in the desert. Tim Murray, one of the
affable hosts on the Vson Network, was on stage with us.
I believe we did a show in in DC.

Speaker 1 (07:01):
See yeah, because he's formerly Annapolis.

Speaker 3 (07:04):
Yeah, and great memory, great memory, guys.

Speaker 1 (07:07):
Tim Murray, how goes Vegas? My friend Vegas is good.

Speaker 3 (07:10):
Yeah, It's kind of crazy to believe that I've been
out here going on five years.

Speaker 1 (07:16):
Has it been that long?

Speaker 3 (07:17):
Yeah? It has packed up the old uh Subaru in
the middle of the pandemic and drove across country and
we've been here ever since. So I still remember jumping
on stage with you fellas in front of a packed
house down there in DC. And I still remember being
on the set at NBC Sports Washington and my mention

(07:39):
started going nuts because you guys at the back end
of one of your podcasts, had your army tell me
to stop being a coward and go to the Muhlenberg
Salisbury game. And I could not understand for the life
of me why my mentions were going nuts. But I mean,
that's just the power of the solid verbat there. Man.

(08:01):
You guys tell them to do something, they'll do it.

Speaker 2 (08:03):
I mean, at the end of this interview, if you've
got a secret verbal that you'd like to throw out,
this is a courtesy that we will extend to you
as one of our one of our preferred guests here
on the program.

Speaker 3 (08:15):
I will I will have to think of it. I
do wonder. I am wearing my solid verbal hat beautiful,
and this, uh you know, this little ditty has has
made its rounds. I've I brought it to the Smurf
turf when I was doing the sidelines for the Potato Bowl.
I did. I did wear it last week when I
got a great tour of the San Jose State facilities.

(08:39):
Far as a couple of days ago. I did not
take a picture on the field there. And but this
bad boys made its ways around. It's gone to Disneyland.
So it's my number one hat right now. Boys, I'll
just say that's number Wow.

Speaker 2 (08:52):
Merch dot Solid Verbal dot Com for those of you
listening at home watching along on YouTube, Yes you can
go and get yours available in many different colors. We
wanted to bring you on, Tim, because you know, as
we build to the start of the college football season,
and as Dan and I are just in throes of

(09:12):
recording some of our previews, we wanted to at least reference.
We wanted to at least make mention of what's going
on in the gambling world. Mindful of the fact that
we've got some listeners who care a great deal about it,
others who couldn't care less. But our standpoint here on
the show has always been that it's useful information. Going

(09:34):
way back when when we first started this thing, we
would always talk about point spreads in reference to games
that were upcoming win totals before the season, just as
a guide for how Vegas was thinking about some of
these teams that we were going to talk about. So
we wanted to bring you on as sort of our
trusted expert here to give us. I don't know that

(09:55):
side of things as you see them right now, because you,
of course our podcast in a successful host in your
own right. What are the betting markets telling you right now?
High level Key themes, key topics, things that maybe you expect,
others that maybe you didn't. What are the betting markets
telling you about the college football season in twenty twenty five?

Speaker 3 (10:16):
You know, I would say one of the early themes
in the betting market has been the love for Clemson.
This is a team that I know, friend of your show,
Bill Conley, in his sp plus as let us know
that this is the number one team in returning production.
And I would say one of the early themes, at
least from the betting market is that you know, Clemson

(10:38):
is live to win the national championship. Now, I want
to put this into perspective. They're not the betting favorite
to win the national title. But when I look at
some of the odds that are out there, guys, they
have been one of the biggest movers. You know, They've
moved from as high as twenty to one earlier this
summer now down around twelve or fourteen to one. You

(10:58):
look at their odds to win the conference championship. That
was a bet that I made, I believe at plus
one sixty And now I understand, you know, some people
might know exactly what I'm talking about. To put that
into perspective, What does plus one sixty mean? Well, it
means if you put down ten dollars and you won
your bet, you win sixteen bucks and you're ten dollars back. Right,

(11:19):
you're not just giving that there laying juice. Meaning they
are the favorite, would mean if they were minus one fifteen,
you'd put down eleven dollars and fifty cents to win
ten dollars. So it's all fractionally based. If you're looking
at it from a future standpoint, and then you know,
you get into the long shots, right, you might see
plus ten thousand, Well what does that mean? It means

(11:40):
you put down one hundred bucks, you win ten thousand dollars.
So that that's kind of how it all plays out.
So back to your initial questions, I Clemson has been
one of the movers for sure when I look at
you know, their odds to win the ACC their odds
to win the National Championship, and you know, another one
of the kind of interesting things in my opinion heading

(12:01):
into this year is I think last year maybe opened
up the eyes a little bit more in that it
is more wide open than we thought. We had a
stretch from a betting standpoint where it felt like there
was not many much you know, air quotes value in
the futures market. There's no long shots. Now you can
do a long shot to make, you know, to win

(12:22):
their conference, whatever it may be. But I think Ohio
State is an eight. Notre Dame as a seven. Making
it to the National Championship Game a year ago, I
think has opened up the eyes that hey, maybe there
aren't super teams right now, and maybe Ohio State was
and they just got knocked off twice during the regular season.
But I think when you look at the odds board
right now, there is no you know, peak Alabama or

(12:45):
peak Georgia, if that makes sense. You know, Ohio State's
your betting favorite, but they're still at five to one.
You know. I think back to I think it was
the twenty twenty season when Alabama was just a juggernaut
and they won the national championship and they were five
to one pre season. I was like, that's a steal.
Right Now, Ohio State and Texas are both your co favorites.

(13:07):
But what's interesting, as you guys know and as your
listeners know, they play each other in Week one, so
one of their odds is going to shift in Week
one both one down and one up, right, and then
you know, I think two What is also interesting, and
I'm sure you guys have discussed I've discussed it at
nauseum on my podcast is look you look at Ohio State, Texas, Georgia, Oregon, Bama,

(13:29):
Notre Dame, if you want to go fur little further down,
Michigan Ole miss a lot of uncertainty of the quarterback position, right,
So I think that's from that's kind of interesting to
me from a gambling standpoint, is you know, I think
this year feels wide open, and the odds kind of
indicate that it is has the potential to be pretty
wide open this year.

Speaker 1 (13:46):
Has there been anything different about this offseason, either because
of portal stuff or because you're two of a twelve
team playoff? You mentioned the wide open nature of last
season and the sort of novel like people didn't know
what to expect out of how teams were going to
look heading into and during a twelve team playoff. This

(14:06):
is the first post twelve team playoff off season. Have
you noticed anything different about this off season? You mentioned
obviously Clemson as a big favorite on the conference and
national level, but has the rhythm of the off season
been at all different with regard to I guess futures
in the way people are looking at the season.

Speaker 3 (14:25):
Yeah, you know, just talking to folks in my world,
I do feel like, I don't want to say hesitancy.
And look, there's some sharp guys that I trust that
are firing away right away, but I do feel like
they've kind of wanted to let the dust settle a
little bit. And you know it's interesting too, is I've
gotten to know people on the other side of the counter,
right the people who are putting these up, and they've

(14:47):
gotten better at it, you know. And I'll give you
an example. And look, it might have just been a
one off, and who knows, but Indiana was as high
as two hundred to one to just make the play
off last year. And now I think when you look
at the odds board guys for to make the playoff odds,
there aren't a ton of teams in that realm. Now, look,

(15:11):
if you want to bet Stanford or Purdue at two
hundred to one to make the playoff, godspeed, you know.
I mean, but you think about an Indiana team whose
win total was five and a half a year ago,
and you know, now we look back on it, We're like, Wow,
that was a great bet. Nobody really believed it. But
I'll say this, a lot of people anticipated them to
have a pretty good season when you looked at the schedule,

(15:32):
when you looked at the track record of signetti, the
pieces they were bringing in. But just for a comparison's sake,
you know, Indiana, I had one listener send me a
ticket slip of him betting him a two hundred to one.
You know, I had someone from DraftKings sportsbook on my
podcast tell me that it was one hundred to one.
You know, these are the teams that are one hundred
to one to make the playoff, Jacksonville State, Wyoming, Buffalo, Bowling,

(15:57):
Green Troy. Like, it's the kind of the long shots
out of the G five. So I do wonder if
the if the you know, the odds makers are being
a little bit more cautious on those long shots to
make the playoffs, because now that we've seen how it
played out, guys you can see in Indiana make the
college football playoff as that long shot. So you know,

(16:19):
when you look at the odds board, at least at
DraftKings right now, and I think that's the only book
that has to make the playoff odds out there, You're
looking at very few Power for teams that have one
hundred to one or longer odds, and the teams that
are all kind of in that ballpark. As I mentioned Stanford,
who's believed to be, you know, maybe a three win

(16:41):
football team perdue with Barry Odom coming in that was
a terrible P four team a year ago. Wake Forest
they've got a new you know, sheriff in town. So
there's not a lot of P four teams in that
one hundred to one or longer odds. And I think
that's an adjustment to what we saw last year after
Indiana made their magical run to the playoff.

Speaker 1 (17:03):
Well you sort of speak of the uncertainty of not
knowing what Signetti and Indiana are going to do. It's
it's obviously much more difficult given how much rosters change coaches,
it seems like they're changing a little bit less as
the sport sort of morphs into a newer version of itself.
Perhaps maybe you know, this is the year, you know,
seventeen Power Conference coaches are going to get fired. Who knows,

(17:25):
But have you noticed any interesting trends in terms of
either how sharpspat or what the conversation is around in
terms of how people who wager on college football approach
the timing of how they bet. Are they waiting a
certain number of weeks to like figure out what teams
are or aren't? Like what does the new world of

(17:46):
college football mean for people trying to evaluate who is
and isn't good?

Speaker 3 (17:51):
Yeah, I mean, it's it's a great question. I think
they're all kind of, you know, adjusting on the fly
as we all Do you know, what value should we
put on a coordinator change? You know, when you think
to Ohio State, for example, they're five to one to
win the national championship. They're loaded from a roster standpoint,
but they've got a quarterback who's never taken really a

(18:13):
meaningful snap and Julian saying, or it's going to be
Lincoln kay Holts, who you know. Bobby Carpenter, former Ohio
State linebacker, was on my pod and he said, look,
this kid's really talented, and you know, maybe it's not
as lockdown as you think. And the fact that you know,
Ohio State a year ago had arguably the best coordinator
tandem in college football with Chip Kelly and Jim Knowles,

(18:36):
and they're both gone. So it's like, you know, how
much do you put into that? But then also how
much you just put into the stock that Ohio State
has been recruiting at an elite level and they arguably
have the two most talented players in college football, and
Caleb Downs and Jeremiah Smith. It's an interesting, you know,
dynamic when you when you think of it from that standpoint.

(18:56):
So yeah, I think you know, as you mentioned Dan,
you know, sharp guys, where are they looking to bet?
I'll give you an example. You know. I I am
a Notre Dame fan. I think all of you guys
know that, but I don't tend to bet on Notre
Dame all that often. But there was one shop out
there that had CJ. Carr at seventy five to one
to win the Heisman Trophy. And if you followed just

(19:19):
kind of closely to that team, you felt like, he's
probably going to be the starting quarterback for Notre Dame.
And it's not lockdown yet. Kenny Minshee could ultimately take
the job. But I bet it at seventy five to
one because I was under the assumption that Steve ANGELI
was probably going to transfer and he ultimately did, so
I think there's also you know, trying to read the

(19:42):
tea leaves and kind of jump the gun a little
bit on all right, where are we going to see this?
I'll say this real quickly though, I think it happens
more so in college basketball, where the portal movements one
player makes such a drastic difference in college basketball and
can shift the odds. So I do know some sharp
guys from the college basketball front that are trying to

(20:03):
kind of predict where certain players might ultimately go in
the transfer portal and try to get ahead of that
because you're going to see significant line movement, you know.
For example, I know I'm kind of going all over
the place, but yeah, when you see Kevin Durant get
traded in the NBA, I mean that massively shifted the
betting market. You know, Houston right now is the second

(20:25):
favorite to win the NBA Championship now that Kevin Durant's
on their roster. A little bit lower down, Desmond Baine,
he gets traded from Memphis to Orlando. And while the
casual fan of this podcast probably doesn't even know who
Desmond Baine is, but those odds were cut in half
according to one odds maker. I think from like forty
to one down to twenty to one. It just doesn't

(20:46):
really happen that way in football, right. I mean, yes,
quarterbacks are vitally important, and a team gets, you know,
a particular player in the portal, but you're not going
to see enormous shifts based off of one player. And
I think that's what's interesting too, is you know, now
that we're here in this portal era, you know, there
were a lot of folks early on, right that were
going fading Colorado in the early coach prime years with

(21:09):
the assumption of you know, this isn't going to work.
And look, they've gone over their win total both years
out of Colorado. So you know, I think everybody's kind
of trying to learn on the fly and what it
ultimately means. And I think right now, you know famous
last words, I think there's a little bit more understanding
of how it works. And then you look at a
team like I mentioned Clemson. They did dip their toe

(21:32):
into the portal a little bit, right, But what is
the biggest thing that is working in Clemson's favor. It's
they went out they added a big time decordinator in
Tom Allen, and they're number one in the country in
returning production. They've got a quarterback in Kid Klubnick that
is believed to be the best returning quarterback in college football.

Speaker 1 (21:51):
How much do you believe in historical data, because again
this is we're looking at futures, right, so we could
pull up that. Let's just take down and Clemson as
the example that that Dabo Sweeney is, you know, twelve
and four hitting the over for Clemson's wind total during
his career. How much of historical data do you actually

(22:11):
care about? Do you have a threshold that like and
I'm not even talking about wagering yourself. I'm just saying,
like that you care to talk about because you think
it's important for your audience. And how much do you
just go year by year? This is what their schedule is,
this is what their roster is, this is what the
new coordinator is. Do you care about historical data? Or
if you know somebody is you know, Kirk Farrens has

(22:31):
been there for so long that you're like, man, that
sample size is crazy. He's twenty three and three not
hitting you know the wind total? Or I guess not
hitting that would be missing the wind total? What, however
you want to phrase it? Do you care or is
there some value? Little value, a ton of value? Where
do you come down?

Speaker 3 (22:48):
Well, I actually I think there there is some value.
Now they're also weird trends, right, Oh, you know on
every October twenty seventh, you know, Alabama covers the point spread.
That is ridiculous. It's it's kind of fun fodder for
social media. You know, you think about this random ass
thing with you know the Tyrese Haliburt and Torn Achilles.

(23:09):
Well you know that Jason Tatum, Damian Lillard and tyre'se Haliburton.
Oh where zero? What do I do with that?

Speaker 1 (23:15):
Nothing?

Speaker 3 (23:15):
But I'll say this, Dan is you know, for example,
I think you know, looking at Marcus Freeman real quickly.
Now it's a little bit different because they're going to
be a favorite in every single game this year. But
if you look at so far through his first four
years at Notre Dame, I don't have the exact numbers
in front of me, but he is fantastic as an

(23:37):
underdog against the spread. He's fantastic in close points spreads.
But as we all know, and I'm sure, Dan reminds
tie regularly. They did lose to Northern Illinois, they did
lose to Marshall, they lost to a terrible Stanford team
in year number one. And you look at some of
the games that have been a little bit too close

(23:57):
for comfort early on in his career. Now there's the
caveat he was a young head coach. Is he learning
on the fly? Is he going to start to take
care of business more regularly? You started to see that
at the end of last season where they were covering
at a very strong clip. So yeah, I do look
at some historical data. I'll give you another interesting one.
Diego Pavia. If you look at him as the starting

(24:19):
quarterback of Vanderbilt, and I know he made some you know,
braggadocious comments because that's just who Diego Pavia is. But
I think in the gambling community he's kind of looked
at us like this this godlike figure. Because last year
at Vanderbilt he was eight and two against the spread
as an underdog. And then the two games guys that
Vanderbilt was favored in they lost to Georgia State and

(24:42):
they did not cover against Ball State. So this is
a team in Vanderbilt that clearly kind of punches up
in their weight class. Now, this is the last thing
I'll say about this. Oddsmakers aren't dummies, right, They're going
to adjust and they're going to realize, all right, these
particular teams maybe thrive in the this dog role and
you tend to have to pay the tax. So, you know,

(25:04):
as last year went on, I believe I remember correctly,
they did not cover. There was one game that Vanderbilt
did not cover, and I felt like everybody was jumping
on Vanderbilt and became kind of a popular underdog. So
to answer your question, Dan, I do think historical data
data can certainly play a positive, you know, especially if

(25:25):
you're looking at how do they fare as an underdog?
How do they fare as a big favorite? You know.
For example, I was reading through Phil Steele's magazine and
there's a pretty good situational spot, as you guys like
to say, sandwich spot. Ye. And when you look at
Iowa State, they play farmer geddon over in Ireland, they
don't take a bye, they come home, they're going to

(25:46):
play South Dakota prior to the Syhawks. So a really
good sandwich spot. And then what Phil Steele pointed out
from a historical data point is that Iowa status three
and ten against the spread against FCS opponents. So they
and to take those FCS foes a little bit more lightly, right,
maybe it's a you know, a glorified scrimmage, whatever it's

(26:07):
going to be. So recognizing that, you know, Iowa State
historically has not blown out FCS opponents. And then on
the flip side, you look at someone like Kirk Signetty,
guys who last year really knew the point spread and
I believe they covered every single game outside of Week
one when they were a favorite. They were, you know,
covering the number. And then some on a regular basis. So,

(26:30):
you know, recognizing coaches trends. You know, coaches will never
say it, but they know the point spread, right, and
they and sometimes there's coaches out there who want to
make sure they take care of business.

Speaker 2 (26:42):
Wow, Look we're doing a show here, Tim Dan and
I tend to be emotional when we are making our picks. No,
our picks should not be taken as gospel, because clearly,
if you've listened to the show over the years, you
know that I've had a bit of a bad run,
let's say, over the life couple years with respect to
making my picks. But what do you think when you

(27:06):
hear us talk about things like let down, look ahead sandwiches?
Because if you go by the solid very ball, it's
a thing. It's something that matters. Body blow, Yeah, it's
something that matter. All of these little I don't know inventions,
these are things that we've come up with that our
audience tends to gravitate towards. You talk to actual betters,
which I have, they look at you like you got

(27:28):
two heads. So what do you think as obviously a
big fan of college football, but also somebody who is
very steeped in this world of pro professional actual gamblers
who pay their bills with this sort of thing.

Speaker 3 (27:40):
Now let me preface it. I am not a pro
better I am. I'm like you guys. I have a job.
I work for a gambling network, But I am not
a professional better. There are people who are much smarter
than me when it comes to that. But I want
to say this, I am a big situational handicapper. I
think it is massive in college football, and I know

(28:01):
I keep bringing it up. But when you think back
to last year, did I think Notre Dame would lose
to Northern Illinois. Absolutely not. Did I think they would
cover a four touchdown spread a week removed from beating
Texas A and M on the road, No, I didn't.
I thought that was a massive letdown spot. I do
believe in situational handicapping, and look, I did a podcast

(28:24):
a week ago, guys where I spent fifteen minutes looking
at early potential situational angles, and not all of them
are going to come home. I'll give you an example.
How about this spot in early season. You've got Arkansas
on the road at Ole Miss and then two weeks
later they host Notre Dame. Friend of mine who works

(28:45):
at the Action Network, Colin Wilson, lives in Fayetteville, and
he said they're already talking about Notre Dame's trip to Arkansas.
In the middle of that, they have to go on
the road to take on Memphis. I mean, that's a
huge game from Memphis. You're getting a power four team
into your home stadium, and it's a It's a great spot.
Now once again oddsmakers realize that there's going to be

(29:08):
a tax that you have to pay. But you know,
there's a lot of different people who go about betting
very differently, and that's the beauty of sports gambling, right.
I tend to like situational handicapping, right, you know, desperation
spot all of that. Now, you can't go just want
all in on one particular angle. But there's a lot
of people out there that are numerically based. I mentioned

(29:29):
Bill Connley. He's got a you know, his system. His
spits out to his numbers and that's what he's going
to bet. He's going to try to find his edges
based off of numbers. But I'm going to more often
than not, you know, look at a situation that I
look to bet. And then and lastly, guys, you know
the reason I got into sports betting, believe it or not,

(29:49):
it was there was a segment in DC with a
radio host that I work with. His name's Kevin Sheen,
and he is very close with Scott Van Pelt. So
he and Scott Van Pelt bet very similarly. And Van
Pelt does his winners, you know, every Thursday night on
his show, and it's always going to be dogs. Very

(30:10):
rarely will you pick a favorite. But what led us,
what led me to this kind of unique way of betting,
was calling it a stinky line, a little fishy line, right,
and you look at it and you're like, h that
doesn't seem to feel accurate. And then you just kind
of you kind of put your finger up to the
wind and you're like, all right, what are people saying
about this game? And everybody seems to be on one side,

(30:33):
and that's the old contrarian betting, right, you go the
opposite way, you know. So look, contrarian betting, situational betting,
betting based off your numbers. If there was something that
made us hit at one hundred percent, we'd all be
doing it and we'd all be living on islands out there.
So you know that however you want to do it.
But you know, I've certainly texted Tie a time or

(30:54):
two and be like, TYE wouldn't go there. We wouldn't
go there. That's a very short, suspicious line.

Speaker 1 (31:00):
And sometimes you like leaning into the stink or avoiding
the stink.

Speaker 3 (31:03):
Embracing the stink is something that I like to say.
You know, if if the line seems wrong, you steer
into it, you grab that stinky line. So look, there's
so many different theories of how people want to bet,
but those are two of the ways that I do
bet the stinky line and also kind of the contrarian
sandwich spot. Maybe I stole it from you guys, but

(31:24):
my producer last Saturday or last year, excuse me, on
my Saturday Tailgate show created a segment we called it
the Murray Delicatessen, and we talked about sandwich spots. So
you know a lot of it. There's there's there's angles
always out there to to take a look at, you know,
from a betting standpoint.

Speaker 2 (31:44):
Just for our audience here, which plays in our run
the Board game, which is a pickup game against the
spread out in our Patreon for ballers dot com up
that it needs any extra plug here, But what is
your formula when you are determining which side of a
bet you want to go on? I mean, obviously there
are some spots that, as we've discussed here, jump out

(32:06):
to you. Whether it's a stinky line or a situational spot.
These things tend to be fairly obvious. But for games
that aren't. If you're just looking at a point spread
and one team is favored by seven and it feels
about right, what are like those points of information that
you would use to guide you to help pick one
side over the other.

Speaker 3 (32:26):
Yeah, I mean, I mean, look, you don't have to
bet every game obviously. That is the beauty of college
football is we have so many games out there that
you don't have to bet every side. But you know,
when you're playing in a pick them pool or something
like that, like you guys do with your your listeners, Yeah,
sometimes you just kind of trust your gut. Maybe a

(32:47):
little bit looked that way, but yeah, I mean look,
more often than not, I wouldn't say I'm a blind
underdog better, but I like to grab the points as
much as I possibly can. But now there's gonna be
spots where you're gonna want to, you know, lay lay
the chalk. So yeah, it's you know, as you'll hear

(33:07):
all the time, it's you know, case by case basis
however it's going to be. But yeah, I think, you know,
when you look at a point spread, I don't know
if I have a hard and fast breakdown of where
I go. Look, there are a lot of people in
my line of work that make their own power ratings.
I do not, you know, I trust in you know,

(33:29):
what odds makers put out there and kind of decipher,
you know. I think also to. One of the interesting
things kind of how you go about betting is I've historically,
as I look back at my bets, my Week one
tends to be one of my worst weeks. I don't
know what it is. I think I need to kind
of get a little bit more information under my belt.

(33:49):
And I also think too, you know, the overreaction to
what you saw last is such a such a commonplace,
you know, and from better And it's not just college football,
it's all sports, right. You know, you see a team win,
you know, forty two to nothing one week, and you
all right, they're going to be the betting favorite, and
then they're they're an underdog and you're like, wait, that's wrong.

(34:11):
And then they go out and they get blown out.
You got got to look into games. You got to
you know, you know, I know Phil Steele does this
a lot. He looks at you know, the teams that
are probably going to regress, right, is the turnover margin,
you know, out of out of whack one way or
the other. Oh my gosh, this team is minus fourteen
in the turnover margin. If they just don't turn the
ball over, they might win this game. And you do

(34:33):
see that certainly from time to time. So I think too,
to kind of go back to Tye, how you go
about it and why I feel like I tend to
be successful as the year goes on. I think, looking
at some of that data, what is what's the outlier here?
Did this team win you know, a game where they
were out gained by two hundred yards or did they
were they plus four in the turnover margin and they

(34:56):
won by two points probably indicating it probably shouldn't have
won that game. Do we utilize that to our advantage
as a better So? I think, you know, that's that's
why I think I tend to be better certainly as
a as a year goes on. And then lastly, I'll
say this, and I know you guys have done your
Bowl pick'ems forever. I think have had a successful bowl

(35:16):
season like five or six straight years. I mean, bowl
season motivation is such a massive thing in these smaller bowls.
Now it gets challenging because, you know, not that long ago,
when the portal wasn't as rampant as it was, you
would look at a you know, a MAX school playing
a P four school and you'd be like, we're going
to take the Max school because they're motivated to play

(35:36):
a P four school. Now a lot of those school
their best players are all in the portal trying to
go to P four teams. So it's not as you know,
cut and dry as maybe it used to be. But yeah,
Bull season, you talk about motivation, man, that is a
that is a driving factor. There is no doubt Bowl
season is a is a clear motivational handicap for sure.

(35:58):
I mean you talk to pro betters, they just completely
throw out their numbers more often than not. Now the
playoff is different, obviously, but they just eliminate their numbers
because it's just it's impossible to know who's going to be,
you know, geared up to be in the you know,
the Frisco Bowl day night before Christmas.

Speaker 2 (36:15):
It's so funny to hear you talk about your tendencies
because I find for myself I'm the exact opposite. And
I've joked about it on this show before. I am
a low information better. I do really well in September.
I do really well the first two weeks of the season.
If I were to shut everything down after September, I
would be much better off for it. You're in your
own head, ty, it's what analysis by over your you.

Speaker 3 (36:38):
Already you said it. You can't get over what you
saw last You've got to remove from the brain what
you saw last Saturday and recognize that there's going to
be whether it's you know, I'm a big believer in
you know, regression, whether it's positive or negative, things tend
to come back. And you know, when you think out
a team like now there they are a team that

(37:00):
defy that logic. And once again, you know, I remember,
you know, a lot of us in the betting world
were continuing to try to go at Signetti last year,
being like, all right, we're gonna we're gonna get him
here Maryland catching.

Speaker 1 (37:12):
Sun end soon, yeah yeah.

Speaker 3 (37:14):
And then you know they would cover with ease there.
So yeah, it's us. I mean, that's the beauty of
gambling man. And even if you're not a better I
just think looking at the point spread tends to be
so fascinating, Like what was the point spread in this one?
Oh wow, that's pretty interesting that they were a touchdown
underdog and they're winning by twenty one points.

Speaker 1 (37:34):
You know, it's almost like you're saying I mean, you
said emotional, but like everybody knows this about Tye he's romantic, right,
of course that ty loves with his whole heart. So
if he sees Kansas State win a big game in
week three or week four, come week seven or eight,
Tye is just like, I still believe, right, I still
think even if there's three weeks consecutively of evidence to
the contrary, Ty's like, I'm gonna fight for this relationship.

Speaker 3 (37:58):
Now. Every Johnson's hair just it's it's romantic. It's just romantic.

Speaker 1 (38:03):
I'm curious. You have the data. Everybody has the data.
If you want to look up who's good against the spread,
who's not good against the spread? You look at the
teams who tend to be terrible against the spread over
the course of a season, especially once you're eight, nine, ten,
eleven weeks in or whatever, and those teams tend to
be the ones who looked good last year and what

(38:26):
you mentioned, you know, having a short memory here, looked
good last year and sort of fell off a cliff
this year, especially on defense, it seems. Is there a
point of the year where you where people who do
this professionally say to themselves, Okay, I know we had
high hopes for Blank, but it's now weak this and

(38:47):
we have to stop. We have to be real and
live in the moment.

Speaker 3 (38:52):
Now I'm pulling up, so I track every one of
my liafe.

Speaker 1 (38:55):
Last year was Arizona, right, Arizona were like, well, they
got the best receiver, they got the quarterback back, and
they were gone awful against the spread last year as
they collapsed with a new coach.

Speaker 3 (39:05):
Well, I'll give you another one that was terrible against
the spread was Liberty. Liberty a year removed from you
know their run Oregon. Oregon destroyed Liberty. I mean they
ruined them, you know, beating them in that bowl game.
But they were a team that we all saw make
the College Football Playoff, believed to be just that much

(39:26):
better than everyone in Conference USA. And last year they
went three to nine against the spread, and they were
a team that you know, I fell for it. I
fell for I think mid season I ended up betting
them to win the conference because I was thinking they're
just better. But sometimes you know, it doesn't work out
that easily, right, There's not always going to be that

(39:49):
positive regression in that regard, but you know it is
worth noting. Right, you look at a team like Florida State,
for example, and you know, you got the comments from
Thomas Castianos as he now heads to Florida State from
Boston College. And you know, last year, guys, Florida State

(40:10):
opens up in Dublin, loses to Georgia Tech. And then
that number, I want to say opened I think as
high as twenty three in favor of Florida State against
Boston College, and I want to say, went all the
way down to sixteen and Boston and Boston College won
the game outright, right. So Florida State was one of
those teams where the market just couldn't adjust them fast enough.

(40:35):
And if you were just blindly fading Florida State, you
were making a ton of money. And then on the
flip side, we mentioned Indiana. Indiana ended up being a
team that just continued to cover and they ended up going,
you know, nine and four against the spread, and I'm
looking at it right now. They had the best cover
margin in college football. They covered games. So once again,
let's say the point spread is seven. They covered games

(40:58):
by an average of twelve point eight points per game,
meaning a seven point spread on average. They beat that spread.
They won by twenty points. So that just tells you
that the market was just off in Indiana, so you'll
see it all the time. And this is where I
you know, I'm a bit stubborn when it comes to this.
When you start to see the trends on Twitter and

(41:20):
you start to hear from your neighbor and he's telling
you that you know, so and so has covered six
straight games, I'm like, all right, it's time to get off. Right.
It's like when your parents started doing something when you
were in middle school and you're like, whoa that is?
That's no longer cool. So it is kind of funny
where that's just my brain where once I start to

(41:41):
see the people kind of pointing out a statistical trend
from an ATS standpoint, that's where I'm like, all right,
I got to get off or I got to go
on the other side. So well, once again, that's just
how my kind of crazy brain works. But yeah, I
mean that's that's something too, where you know, odds makers
have power ratings and they live by those power ratings

(42:04):
and they're going to adjust obviously, but it's hard to
overreact to one game. So Florida State, for example, they
go twelve to zero in you know, twenty twenty three,
and then we had no idea that they were going
to be that tragically bad last year, and once again,
not only did they go what two and ten straight up,

(42:24):
but I think they went to eight and two against
the spread because the market is trying to adjust fastly,
but they don't want to overreact to what we saw.
You know. Okay, they lost to Georgia Tech and Ireland.
All right, no big deal. Let's see how they do
against Boston College. Woh, they lost to Boston College. Now
we have to readjust and change our power ratings. So
they're trying to change on the fly, but they don't

(42:45):
want to change too much because then, you know, sharp
guys might come in and say, you guys shouldn't have
done this. You overreacted this too much, and we're going
to you know, pound you. On the other side, are
there ratings ratings?

Speaker 1 (42:56):
Are there people whose power ratings are more accurate over time?
Just in terms of like, Okay, this is my model,
this is my algorithm, this is my system or whatever,
and it has proved to be a more successful view
of who is and who isn't trustworthy in college football
than my competitors.

Speaker 3 (43:18):
I mean, every pro better out there is hoping that
their system is got some edges, right, So I don't know.
I mean, look, a lot of pro betters we don't
even know who they are, you know. But there's a
lot of people out there that, you know, I'm not
going to name them, but there's plenty of handicappers. I
have a bunch on my show that they have respected
ratings and sometimes there's going to be a big discrepancy

(43:40):
in their power rating versus the market, and that's going
to lead them to a bet. So I don't know,
if if if I can name you one particular person
that you know, well, even like the odds makers, right,
the odds makers have their they yeah, they have ratings.

Speaker 1 (43:53):
They have rankings where it's just like, yeah, Caesar's or
whoever was way lower on Arizona State than every everybody
else and that paid off.

Speaker 3 (44:02):
Yeah, and you'll see it, you know, Dan, when you
look at you know, different books that are out there.
My studio is inside the Circus Sports Book. They're they're
thought to be probably one of the sharpest books in
the world, if not the sharpest book in the world.
So you know, you look around and that and that's
what's kind of interesting. And you'll hear people like on Vsen.
We always say always shop around, right, and you know

(44:25):
this is something too. If you're just getting into gambling
and you know you're you're a twenty dollars a game,
better whatever it is, whatever you feel, it doesn't matter.
But I always say this, you know, always look around.
You know, we as a society will drive. We'll drive
an extra ten miles if I can save you know,
two cents on gas, when in reality, probably driving that

(44:48):
far just was a waste of money. But at the
end of the day, it's in our minds that I've
got to get the cheapest price out there. But when
it comes to gambling, I feel like people are like, well,
what's the difference between seven and a half and eight?
It's like, well, over time, that's going to come back
and bite you in the butt. So you always, as
I always look around, don't just settle because it's more convenient,

(45:11):
you know, get as many outs as possible.

Speaker 1 (45:12):
I think that's a good life philosophy.

Speaker 3 (45:14):
Yeah, when you think about you know, Dan your state
in Illinois or tie your state in Pennsylvania. There's so
many books out there, whether it be DraftKings, FanDuel, you know,
Bet mgm et cetera, et cetera. That just look at
all of them. More often than not, guys, they're they're
going to have the same number. You know, you're not
going to see it off all that much, but there
are going to be differences in the futures market, you know,

(45:36):
when you look at hey, I like, you know, a
long shot Heisman bet that I made. Is it going
to come home? Probably not? But I bet Devin dan
Pier to win the Heisman Trophy as he goes to Utah,
He's one hundred to one at DraftKings. He's like fifty
to one everywhere else. Don't just settle and be like, well,
fifty to one is the same as one hundred to one. No,
it's it's double doublely better. You know, at so always

(46:00):
around and if you can, you know, it's kind of
tedious at times, but just just check your apps and
see if you can get a little bit of difference,
because there's a there's certainly a big difference between you know,
two and a half and three, six and a half
and seven, and if you can get that better number,
certainly it's it's definitely worth an over time. While you
may you know, I hear it all the time. Well,

(46:22):
I just I just laid the money line instead of
you know, taking the points. Okay, and that's that's your prerogative,
and maybe you'll hit more often than not. But as
you continue to do this time and time again, over
years and years and years, you're gonna get bit in
the butt if you're just only betting the money lines
as opposed to taking the points.

Speaker 1 (46:39):
What's the least efficient way to wager on college football props? Parlays?
You know what? What are you just like, Hey.

Speaker 3 (46:46):
This is a teazers or here it is teasers? Never
tease college football? Look, okay. In the NFL, teasers have actually,
over time become a profitable endeavor. And I'll give you
an example. I'll give you kind of.

Speaker 1 (47:01):
Just define teaser, by the way, for the people, so
thank you.

Speaker 3 (47:04):
A teaser is when you utilize points and you can
manipulate the line. So your standard teaser is two team
six point teaser. And in the NFL these have become
profitable and sportsbooks have adjusted accordingly because in the NFL

(47:25):
the margins are so razor tight and the games are
going to tend to fall in there. So in the NFL,
if you're teasing The belief is you want to get
through what are key numbers? Right, key numbers are three
and seven. Those are the most key numbers. That's what
games land on the most. So for example, I'll just

(47:46):
use random teams. If the Philadelphia Eagles are a one
and a half point underdog against the Kansas City Chiefs,
you can utilize a six point teaser and take the
Philadelphia Eagles, move them through three, move them through seven,
and now you've got the Eagles as a seven and
a half point underdog. But it's not that easy. You
got to find another dance partner, right, So you got

(48:07):
to find another team that you feel like. Maybe the
Bills are a seven and a half point favorite against
the Dolphins. So we're going to take the Bills and
we're going to move them through seven and three, move
them down, and now I've got the Bills minus one
and a half and the Eagles plus seven and a
half and both have to hit in order for me

(48:27):
to win my bet. So in college football, go ask
an odds maker. They'll tell you the answer. They'll tell
you never tease in college football. There's too much volatility
in college football. So you know, look, parlays are fun.
We like to put together, you know, our five leg parlay,
you know, and try to hit on a big cash.

(48:48):
And if that's what you want to do your recreational
you know, teach their own I'm not going to tell
you not to do it, but for a teaser, it's
just there's so much volatility out there in college football
where it's just it's not gonna be worth it to
utilize it. And when you look at the juice that
you have to pay, for example, in the NFL, juice

(49:08):
meaning what the house's take is going to be. In
the NFL, they've moved the juice of standard two team
six point teasers to anywhere from like minus one twenty
to minus one forty. They don't want you to play them.
That's why they've moved it that way. If you go
play like a college football teaser, there's like no juice.
It's like even money. It's a hint from the books

(49:30):
being like, sure, we'll take your money on this because
this won't come home more often than not. So look,
books love when you play parlays because it's harder to
hit parlays, right, you gotta hit, you gotta hit four
legs of five legs, six legs. Look, I'm not gonna lie.
I play them from time to time, some moneyline parlays

(49:51):
I put together favorites. But in college football, you guys
known as well as anybody, the weeks that we expect
there to be no chaos, there's utter.

Speaker 2 (49:59):
Chaos, the quiet ones, right, it's always a quince.

Speaker 3 (50:02):
You know. So yeah, do not tease college football. Let
me just that's my PSA. Do not tease college football.

Speaker 1 (50:09):
There's I don't know if this is a fallacy. I
don't know if there's actual value in it. Do you
find it to be the case in the conversations you
have that hyper focusing on smaller conferences is valuable? Or
is football so big that the people who truly care
so that in this the book makers, the odds makers
like there they know what they're talking about with the

(50:30):
Conference USA lines and the Mountain West lines and FCS lines,
Or is there actual like are do these some of
these games sort of exists in the shadows mathematically, and
if you really lock in on a smaller conference you
can succeed.

Speaker 3 (50:46):
I think there is some validity to that. You know,
if you are only focusing on the MAC I think
you might find yourself having an edge. Now, I think
it's more more applicable to college basket because there's so
many teams and you know, odds makers are just going
to trust their power ratings and probably not look at

(51:07):
situational spots if you are focused in on you know,
the NYC or the Patriot League. I think there is
an edge to be had in college basketball, for sure.
I think there still is the potential to look around
in the MAC, in the CUSA if you want to
divulge in the FCS. FCS numbers move very quickly, you know,

(51:32):
meaning they're going to trust the bets that come in
a lot, and they're going to move those numbers rapidly,
you know, sharp money. Look, I don't move lines, right,
you guys don't move lines. The guys that are respect
for yourself, Well that's true. I can't speak for Dan Tye. You.
I don't think you.

Speaker 1 (51:51):
Might move markets tie. Everybody knows this, but yeah.

Speaker 3 (51:54):
It's interesting. And look, that's also something to note. Right,
you'll hear people like me or others saw about like
sharp action that is coming in when a line moves.
That is typically sharp action the public now, not all
the time, but more often than not, the sharp action
is the one that moves lines right. The public better

(52:15):
is not going to move line. Sports books are okay
taking a stand like they if they see that, you know,
eighty percent of recreational betters are on, you know, Florida
State plus twelve and a half against Alabama, probably not
going to move that line because they're okay, they want
to win, they want to beat the better at the
end of the day. Now, if they see a bunch

(52:37):
of betters that they respect coming in on Florida State
plus twelve and a half, that's when you're going to
see the number move right. So that is you know,
I don't want to say it's a common misconception, but
a lot of the time, you know people say, you know,
sportsbooks want fifty to fifty action. That's not always true.
You know that they're going to want to take a stand,

(52:58):
and you know you'll you'll hear like I have odds
makers on all the time, and you know they'll say, hey,
it was a great weekend for us. You know we
got this underdog home or or this you know underdog
one and it blew up moneyline parlays. So you hear
that a lot too, where you know, you see, you know,
especially in the NFL, guys, when you see like you
know that they're gonna the Chiefs and the Eagles and

(53:22):
and all these very popular good teams, people just throw
them into moneyline parlays, and when one of them loses,
it tends to be a good thing for the sports
book because that's gonna wipe out all of these money
line parlays. Because when you put together a money line parlay, right,
you get a little more creative juice. All right, cool,
Now I've got you know, Ohio State paired with Penn State,

(53:43):
paired with Oregon. All they have to do is win
these three games and I'm going to bring it home
at you know, plus one oh five. But when one
of those teams loses, it tends to help out the
sportsbook and wipe out those money line parlays.

Speaker 1 (53:56):
You have any good stories about somebody having eye and
years everywhere finding out if a quarterback got dumped, finding
out if you know, a running back and his coach
got in a screaming match and shoved each other and
now he might not be playing. You know, a you
take your pick a receiver and his wife or girlfriend
having a baby, and now he's up all night because

(54:18):
he's got a newborn, and maybe you know, fade this thing,
like do you have stories about you know, Sharp's having
those eyes and ears everywhere?

Speaker 3 (54:26):
No doubt, I'll give you one. A couple of years ago,
I think it was. I think it was twenty twenty one.
Notre Dame was playing Virginia in Charlottesville and the week prior,
Brennan Armstrong got banged up, and I was just kind

(54:46):
of speculating him, like, I don't I don't think he's
going to play. You know, it's it's Notre Dame. It's
a big game. But it's also they still were, i
think at the time, in the acc hunt. So I
was just kind of poking around and reached out to
a couple of folks and they were like, oh, yeah,
he's not playing. And then you find out a little

(55:07):
bit further down the line, I think the stories come out,
like how that information, you know, came out? So yeah,
I mean, if you can beat the market on information,
like there are some really good folks out there that
are just ruthless trying to find out information, you know,
having sources inside you know, training facilities.

Speaker 1 (55:27):
I don't unfortunately, come on, you got to get the
kids in on this. Who's in a walking boot?

Speaker 3 (55:32):
I know? But yeah, every once in a while, I
think I'll give you I remember, and this is with
college basketball. I want to say it was like information
that was like readily available, but it was a Patriot
League team, American university. I think their best player had
played like illegally in you know, Europe or something like that,
and he was suspended due to NCAA rules and the

(55:55):
market just didn't realize it. And I'm like, did they
know that their best player is just not playing today?
The information was just out there, and you know, sometimes
you just you know they're they're asleep at the wheel.
Not so much in college football, but yeah, I mean
I think if you have sometimes you just get lucky
and you get that information. I'm trying to think of
some others that I've know you have some good closing

(56:17):
line value. But yeah, I do remember that Notre Dame
Virginia game. I remember going on the air and be like,
I know that Brendan Armstrong's not going to play, but
it's not been reported, so I kind of try to
like strongly hint, be like.

Speaker 1 (56:30):
I don't know guys is up in the air. He
might not be playing.

Speaker 3 (56:35):
And then I want to say the points spread went
from like seven to like fourteen once you officially got
ruled out, you know, before the start of the game.
But hey, look so sometimes you get burned. Right, you
have a source that's like, this guy is definitely not
going to play, right, and then you're texting with people,
you know what, You're like, is he warming up? They're like, yeah,
he's going to play. You're like, oh, this is terrible information. So,

(56:56):
you know, always always trust your sources and trust your information.
And obviously, as much as we want to trust everything
that we see on on you know, social media, it's
not always going to be accurate. So yeah, be careful
all the time, you know, loading up, you know, every
dollar that you have in a bank account, because you know,
the uh, the you know, backup center told you information

(57:21):
that the starting quarterback is going to be out the place.

Speaker 1 (57:24):
Kicker's hands have been shaking while he was drinking his smoothie.
I don't know if his mental state is where it
needs to be, if this is close.

Speaker 2 (57:30):
We had so many people right in about cam Rising
last year.

Speaker 1 (57:35):
I remember that, well, people like that game it was a.

Speaker 3 (57:39):
Friday night game. It was Utah and like, oh god,
was it Washington State or something like that, and all
week winning him was like, yeah, he's gonna play.

Speaker 1 (57:50):
And then Friday night. Yeah, it's a couple of years ago. Yeah,
that was a big thing too, because I don't I
think this story was on the show somebody. I forget
who told it, and forgive me, But that was also
a Fox game that they were broadcasting from LA, so
they didn't actually have the right and I think Kyle
Whittingham kind of misled the broadcast crew, but like because

(58:13):
they weren't there, they didn't actually have eyes and ears
on like the team and the situation and what was
going on. And so like Fox felt betrayed being away
from LA that they weren't getting the full information. That
might have been Petros Papadacus. I forget who it was,
but that was a whole thing with Cam Rising is
going to play and then he just didn't.

Speaker 2 (58:31):
Yeah, And interestingly enough, I believe starting with this next
round of the College Football Playoff, they're going to require
schools to provide an availability report in advance of some
of these games.

Speaker 3 (58:44):
So well, I'll say this real quickly thinking back to
this last year's playoff, right, Jeremiah Love was all sorts
of banged up, right, and I I probably put one
of my biggest bets of the year on his under
rushing yards and I think it came home against Penn State.
But he played a lot more than we expected. You know,

(59:04):
it was like, hey, he's going to have four carries.
I think he had like eleven or twelve carries in
that game. And I think there were markets out there
where it was like Jeremiah Love versus Trayveon Henderson, Who's
going to have more rushing yards as he played Texas,
and I'd loaded up on that, gave it out of
my shows, and he ended up with like fifty some
odd yards and Traveon Henderson, if I remember correctly, they

(59:27):
didn't really run the ball all that well against Texas.
So you know, sometimes you think that the information you've
got is good and the market's off the off the mark,
and it just doesn't come home. That's that's the beauty
of sports betting, and in sports, right, it's that's all
we love this stuff so much. So you know I
hate everyone's like, you know, what, give me a lock
I'm like, I'm.

Speaker 1 (59:47):
Not going to Sorry, friend, I'm not going to do that.

Speaker 3 (59:50):
Like you know you can. I like this bet, I've
made it myself. But there's no such thing as a lock.
And if you could just hit at you know, fifty
five percent, you're doing you're doing very well, which I
know people don't like to hear. They want you to
be hitting at you know, seventy five percent.

Speaker 1 (01:00:05):
Well, let's close out with this. I won't ask you
for your locks, but.

Speaker 2 (01:00:11):
Some of your favorite moves, some of your favorite lines,
some things that have been of interest to you in
the preseason. As I know you're every bit is deep
in this as Dan and I are. What what are
some of the some of the bets that you like?

Speaker 3 (01:00:29):
Yeah, so, I mean full disclosure, I've only made a
couple so far. You know, I'm really diving into it
now for for win totals and stuff like that. The
long shot I mentioned already is Devin Dan Pierre and
you know, a lot of people are going to discuss
John Mattier and look, I'm excited to see what he's
going to bring to the table with his you know,

(01:00:49):
his unique style of play down at Oklahoma, and you know,
maybe I'm a little bit of a hater, but I
want to see it, right. I want to see him
perform at the level that he perform at in you know,
let's call it what it was, the Mountain West last year.
As he goes to the best conference in college football
from top to bottom. So you know, there's a there's
a unique aspect of you know, Ben Arbuckle comes with

(01:01:11):
him down to Oklahoma. But you know, look at the
odds board, guys on John Mattier. You know, the odds
are very much baked in, and he is you know
when you look at you know, Heisman Trophy thirty five
to one, which you know if if he wins it,
hey man, that more power to you. That's that's a
great bet to make. But you know, I'm just not

(01:01:32):
there yet. But I am excited about you know, Devin
dan Pier because it's a similar situation where he brings
he is coming with his offensive coordinator from New Mexico.
I think it's Jason. He goes up to New Mexico
or excuse me, goes to Utah and look, the schedule
is much more manageable for Utah as opposed to Oklahoma.

(01:01:56):
Oklahoma's believed by some people to have the most difficult
sched in college football this upcoming year. So, you know,
Devin dave Peer is not the polished passer that I
would say John Mattier is, but you know, you watch
some of his highlights a year ago. Man that was
a special, special player, and the level of talent that
was on New Mexico's roster was was not anywhere close

(01:02:17):
to what Washington State was. So he's kind of the
guy that I'm most intrigued about this year in college football,
you know, from an outside standpoint. Obviously, I'm intrigued by
you know, Ty Simpson and you know CJ. Carr and
players that you know, the big time programs. But he
is the one guys that I threw one hundred to
one bet on him. I think that's still out there
at DraftKings. You know, once again, long shot, it was,

(01:02:39):
as we like to call pizza bed. It was nothing big,
but that one. I'm like, I'm a little bit talking
out of both sides of my mouth in the sense
that I'm questionable on John Mattier and I'm all in
on Devin damp here. But you know, the SEC versus
the big twelve let's be real, right, you know, that's
a little bit of a different ballgame in those two
particular conferences. I mentioned Clemson obviously, they are a team

(01:03:01):
that I'm very high on. And then you know, the
one team that I feel like, as crazy as it sounds,
and it's not like they're a one hundred to one
shot that just people may not be discussing enough in
my opinion, is Alabama. You know, when you look at
the positional strengths that they have, I think, you know,

(01:03:24):
and I'm not saying that he's the Gospel, but I
think Phil Steele had them top ten in every position
outside of quarterback. And I think that's what's so fascinating
about this year, guys, is if a couple of these
schools hit at the quarterback position, whether it be Ty
Simpson at Alabama or CJ. Carr at Notre Dame or
Dante More at Oregon, Like, what's the ceiling for these

(01:03:47):
particular schools? Right? Like they have loaded rosters, but we
just don't know about the quarterback, and the quarterbacks the
most important position in the sport. But what if they hit.
It's not like Ty Simpson was some JABBRONI he was
a five star wars crewed a couple of years ago. CJ.
Carr high four star recruit. So we know recruiting rankings
are hit or miss, and there's plenty of bus out there.

(01:04:08):
But what I think was interesting when you look at
Georgia and Bama and Notre Dame and Oregon is that
they didn't really go in the portal. They didn't look
all that hard. Miami did right. They brought in Carson
Beck and you know, from my understanding, we had a
friend of your show, Scott Doctrman, on my podcast and

(01:04:32):
he said that, you know, Miami went hard after Mark
Ronowski from South Dakota State. So Miami was clear, we
need a quarterback. The other schools are kind of like,
we're good, we think we can roll with this. So
going back to Bama real quickly, guys, you know, Caitlin
de Boor, it felt like maybe his stock was too
high when he went down to Bama. And now doesn't

(01:04:52):
it feel like the stock is like, well, this guy's
got to do it not for losses. Is not how
you do it down here in Tuscaloosa. I'm like, the
rosters still loaded with talent, and Ryan Williams maybe you know,
the best wide receiver one B to Jeremiah Smith's one A.
And if Ty Simpson hits with an offensive coordinator and

(01:05:12):
Ryan Grubb that has worked wonders over his career. You know,
that reuniting reunion of Grub and Deboor. I think needs
to get a little bit more love out there. Like, look,
Penn State, you went out, you got Jim Knowles. That
could work out wonderfully well, and I'm not saying it won't,

(01:05:32):
but I think people are overlooking the fact that Ryan
Grubb and Kaylin de Boor led Washington to the National
Championship Game two years ago, and now with more talent,
we're kind of looking at Alabama as like the eighth
or ninth best team in the country. So I just
I think Alabama I would not be surprised if they're
playing in late January wonderful.

Speaker 1 (01:05:56):
Well.

Speaker 2 (01:05:56):
His name is Tim Murray. You can find him out
on the v SIN network as well as the Vson
College Football Betting podcast. Anything that I missed, Tim.

Speaker 3 (01:06:07):
I don't think, so I got it all just fired
up to get to going. Oh I do uh I
actually you did miss something. For those of you watching
with us, you could see over my shoulder. That is
my prestigious college jersey I was. I was an All American,
and by All American, I played about nine minutes a

(01:06:27):
game from Ulenberg College. But I bring this up and
we're talking to basketball.

Speaker 1 (01:06:31):
Yeah, because Ty.

Speaker 3 (01:06:33):
Hilton Brandt over there lives a stone's throw away from
my alma mater in Allentown, Pennsylvania. And Dan, we're doing
all this, you know, gambling chatter, and it's an important
thing in gambling to pay your debts, and Ty Hillton
Brandt has has not paid his debt. I have a

(01:06:53):
several of years ago, Notre Dame played Ohio State and
Ty and I both Notre Dame fans, of course, and
Ty was as as he's one to do, feeling good,
and he said, Notre Dame is gonna beat Ohio State.
They could have, They could should be.

Speaker 1 (01:07:09):
They nearly had enough men on the field. Yeah.

Speaker 3 (01:07:12):
But at the end of the day, when triple zeros
were on the board and I was sitting there with
a sour puss on my face inside Notre Dame Stadium
wearing a green T shirt, Ohio State had beaten Notre Dame.
But we had a little wager on the side where
if Ohio State won the game, because I was very

(01:07:34):
pessimistic about said game, that Ty Hilton Brandt would walk
over to the Muhlenberg bookstore buy a Muhlenberg basketball T
shirt and wear it on the podcast.

Speaker 1 (01:07:45):
Ty come on, I know, I know, Rubenstein.

Speaker 3 (01:07:48):
Remind me you are a man who has a great memory.
Have we seen a Muhlenberg basketball T shirt uppear on
the solid.

Speaker 1 (01:07:58):
Verbal Thistly, this show has been mule free since two
thousand and three, and I don't appreciate Tye bringing now
a pretty bad reputation.

Speaker 3 (01:08:10):
You know, Dan, in some circles there are you know
there old people, kneecaps are broken, You know that things
get ugly. You know, you know the Murray sports book
is pretty kind. I'm just publicly tight.

Speaker 1 (01:08:25):
So we're talking about a college athlete here who has
a lot of pride, who winning is important. Here's my
final question, by the way, because you're you're displaying the
jersey in the background here, you were you a power forward?
What position did you play?

Speaker 3 (01:08:38):
Believe it or not, I was a center.

Speaker 1 (01:08:39):
Okay, so you're playing center for the Berg Mules, playing
nine minutes a game. But nobody can take away the
fact that you were a college athlete. So to any
aspiring low post player fifteen sixteen years old and they
want to play is muelen Bert was a d D three?
They just want to keep that that career going. What

(01:09:02):
is what is something that they should be working on
in those unseen hours in the gym? Are we talking
about dropstaff baby hook? Are we become a stretch five?
What is your advice to surpass your nine minutes a
game playing D three basketball?

Speaker 3 (01:09:14):
Well, you know free throws are important. Yeah, I did.
I did set a I did set the record at
Muhlenberg for a single season worst free throw percentage. It
was a fact. My junior year, I was eight for
thirty one from the free throw on at twenty five
point eight percent. I don't know how you can.

Speaker 1 (01:09:37):
Was it your hands, was it your head? Was it
your rhythm? All in the head.

Speaker 3 (01:09:40):
It's all between the ears man and kind of it's
not like I was playing every game, you know there
inside Memorial Hall it was it was like the Cameron crazies.
You know, let's be real. It was a smattering of
students and parents inside those arenas. But it's all between
the ears man. So if you could figure out a

(01:10:01):
way to I don't know if you had to go
to a sports psychologist or do something like that. Man,
the mental side of things is vital.

Speaker 1 (01:10:10):
I appreciate that we just spent an hour talking about
how to think about and evaluate college football from somebody
who could not hit thirty percent of his free throw.

Speaker 3 (01:10:17):
That's correct, Okay, just making sure seventy five percent free
throw shooter in high school. And then I got to college,
and I would a I did improve my senior year.
I think I went nine for twenty three my senior year.

Speaker 2 (01:10:30):
Okay, you need a gene hackman out there with the
ruler measuring it to show you visually that it's the
same height and the same h you know.

Speaker 3 (01:10:39):
Yeah, so yeah, I would say mentally, you know, stay
stay sharp between the ears. Okay, that's always helpful. Yeah
I did. I will say though, my freshman year, I
did lead the nation in field goal.

Speaker 1 (01:10:52):
Percentage, which was one percent one for one, So perfect
here perfect that is?

Speaker 3 (01:10:59):
I mean, look, those are those are things people can't
take away, you know though, those are those are factual statements.
And you know, maybe one day ty Hilton Brandt will
will represent his hometown. I mean, look, it's his hometown
team Dan. I mean it's right down the road, you know,
in the Lehigh Valley.

Speaker 1 (01:11:16):
Here is my promise to you, Tim, Here is my promise.

Speaker 2 (01:11:19):
Come on, My promise is on one of our upcoming
preview episodes. Because we're in the as I said, throws
of trying to put these together. Now, I will run
up to Muhlenberg. I will pick up a shirt. I
will wear it on one of the preview episodes. I
will send it off to you. I'll send you a screenshot,
all right, so that you can verify and so I
can make good on my bet.

Speaker 3 (01:11:40):
All right. You know, hey, look, at the end of
the day, you got to you gotta pay your debts.
It's it'll be almost two years since that game. I
remember sitting in the parking lot, an empty parking lot,
at like one o'clock in the morning after Notre Dame
lost to Ohio State. And I want to say I
did call the verbaler line, just being very despondent and

(01:12:03):
sad that I had just witnessed it. But you know,
we press on and we'll see what We'll see what
comes of it. And you got to pay your debts
in another part of a part of gambling. You gotta
pay your debts.

Speaker 2 (01:12:16):
An important life lesson from Tim Murray over at the
Visa Network. Tim, thank you for sharing your insight, your wisdom.
It's always great to have you back.

Speaker 3 (01:12:25):
See you guys.

Speaker 1 (01:12:25):
All right, there you go, Tim Murray calling me out.
How long of a drive is it? It's like ten minutes.

Speaker 2 (01:12:34):
Okay, it's I could have walked there before.

Speaker 1 (01:12:36):
I can't walk there anymore. Muhlenberg Mules shirt. Let's take
a look at the options all on the show together.

Speaker 2 (01:12:43):
When we brought him on and I saw his frame
with the Muhlenberg basketball jersey over his I guess right shoulder.
I knew he was going to bring that up. I
just I knew in my marrow he was going to
bring that up. And I feel bad about it because
we did make the bet and I didn't follow through.
But I will definitely follow through now that he called

(01:13:05):
me out on the air.

Speaker 1 (01:13:06):
I'm looking right now. You can get twenty twenty. There's
like a bucking Mule shirt made by Gilden for the Mules. Great,
It's totally good. It's totally good. I did a little
bit more Lorenzo Lamas research. Of course he did. His
lady co host on Are You Hot was Rachel Hunter.
Rachel Hunter who at one point was married to Rod

(01:13:27):
Stewart and more affectionately, this century known as Stacy's mom.
Oh parenthetically has got it going on? I did not
know that. Yes, she was the co host of that show.
And here's the other Lorenzo Lamises. His filmography is an
insane list of titles going back to when he was

(01:13:50):
like a kid in stuff. He was in both Snake
Eater and Snake Eater Too colon, The Drug Buster, he
was in Body Rock Promises in the Dark. I can
only imagine what that is, But that's Snake Eater three colon,
His Law Cia Code Name colon Alexa CIA two Colan

(01:14:11):
Target Alexa, Bad Blood, Midnight Man, Gladiator, Cop Terminal, Justice,
The Rage, Undercurrent, The Circuit Too colon The Final Punch.

Speaker 2 (01:14:21):
These sound like chat GPT movies.

Speaker 1 (01:14:23):
Is what the unbelievable unseen evil sci Fi Fighter Killing
Cupid eighteen Fingers of Death, and he played a character
named Antonio Bandana, Sucubis colin Hell Bent, Mega Shark Versus
Giant Octopus, Return to Vengeance, Cathedral Canyon bro Comma, What

(01:14:44):
Happened Atomic Eden, God's Club, Railroad to Hell colon, A
Chinaman's Chance. I do not approve of that way of speaking.
Las Vegas, Vietnam colon, the movie Scorpion Awakening colon the
movie Real Blood colon The True Beginning. Wow Yeah, and

(01:15:07):
Phineas and Ferb, Ghost Girls, Luca Underground, Sharknado three colon
O heell no, this is this is this is great,
this is okay. I don't know how we not? It
says this are you hot.

Speaker 2 (01:15:25):
The series was short lived, lasting only a handful of
episodes before being canceled due to low ratings. In a
negative reception, you don't say, you don't say. Shining a
laser pointer at flaws the Flawfinder.

Speaker 1 (01:15:40):
We got it here, all right, it's time to dial
up the flawfinder the fader. There it is okay, miszoo,
let's get a closer look. Beautiful.

Speaker 2 (01:15:50):
Well, listen, big thanks Tim Murray for stopping on by
sharing his insight with us.

Speaker 1 (01:15:55):
We appreciate it.

Speaker 3 (01:15:56):
Uh.

Speaker 2 (01:15:56):
We're gonna go off now and record our first preview
and if that's cool with you, that drops on Tuesday
again next week. A one episode week, I'm going to
get our intro to the twenty five season. The following
week we're going to flip the switches, go to three,
start talking about the G five slash G six conferences,
and then I guess go into the ACC.

Speaker 1 (01:16:18):
The following week.

Speaker 2 (01:16:19):
Yes, so a lot is coming your way here. We
appreciate having you beside us. Verballers dot Com is where
you can go to support. If nothing more, hit follow
or subscribes that you don't miss any of those episodes.
For that guy over there are Lorenzo Lama, sufficient not O,
Dan Rubinstein, For myself, Ti Hilding, Right, we'll catch you
all next week.

Speaker 1 (01:16:39):
The Unite to Day saw peace

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