November 7, 2025 • 43 mins
Tim Reinbott sits down with Zack Leasor, University of Missouri’s State Extension Specialist for Climate, dive into the Missouri Mesonet and the launch of the new MoHIC weather stations.
Zack explains how these cutting-edge stations are improving the way we monitor weather across the state, providing critical data for farmers, researchers, and communities. Discover how this expanding network is transforming real-time decision-making for Missouri agriculture and beyond.
YouTube Video Part One: https://youtu.be/rqj7aHKRu2g
YouTube Video Part Two: https://youtu.be/ElfESuP8ErM
#Podcast #MissouriMesonet #MoHIC #WeatherData #MissouriAgriculture #zackleasor #TimReinbott #UniversityOfMissouri #Climate #Farmers #Innovation
Visit https://moaes.missouri.edu/ to learn more.
The Missouri Agricultural Experiment Station (MOAES) extends CAFNR research to nearly 14,000 acres across the state to meet regional research and demonstration needs of agricultural producers and natural resource managers. MOAES has a storied history of major impacts in advancing science in agriculture, food and natural resources — locally, nationally and globally. These CAFNR laboratories provide research faculty with a wide variety of real-world conditions to test and develop strategies for agricultural production based on the geographical and climatic differences of our diverse state.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:00):
[♫]
(Tim Reinbott) Well, welcome today to Tim's Take, and we are with Dr. Zack Leasor,
our State Extension Climatologist. (Zach Leasor) Yes, thank you for having me, Tim. (Tim) You know,
Zach, the climatologist, you either get credit or get blamed for everything. (Zach) Yes, absolutely.
(00:22):
And, uh... sometimes it feels like it can be both at the same time depending on what the weather's
doing in Missouri, too. (Tim) And we had that this past year. We had very wet conditions. Actually,
we thought we were going to have a really great growing season, then it turns out dry. (Zach) Yes.
And that kind of happened last year, too. (Tim) It did, didn't it? And... and... and what causes
(00:44):
that? (Zach) Yeah. So, you know, this year we really flipped the switch. It was wet in... in
April, May, and June. And in fact, um... some areas in southeast and southern Missouri were
too wet. Uh, April was the fourth wettest April on record for the state. Um, with records going back
to 1895. And a lot of that was from southeast and... and southern Missouri as well. So,
(01:06):
um... that started out the season, but once we got to July, um... really midway through July,
I-70 and south in the state, the... the rain really shut off, and we didn't see significant
precipitation until, uh... this last week here in mid-September. So, um... that's been tricky to...
to watch here. And it's really characteristic, though, of Missouri's climate. Being in the...
(01:29):
the center of the US, uh... we have a continental climate, which means we get all four seasons, but
it also means we can get, uh... all of these air masses moving from around us. And so, it's really
easy to switch from, uh... maybe a wet pattern to a dry pattern. In this part of the country, in
the... the central of the US, uh... that's really a notable thing. And so the past two years, we've
(01:52):
seen that switch from wet to dry so quickly that we actually call that a... a flash drought. And
so that's different from a regular drought where we think about monthly or seasonal differences
and kind of a long-term drought event. These flash droughts, once the rain stops and if it's
really hot like in July or August, um... you see conditions evolve in just a few weeks as opposed
(02:15):
to throughout the season. And so that's been two consecutive years with the flash drought. (Tim) Is
that because the jet stream has went back north? (Zach) Yeah. So, we're really prone this time of
year, um... for the jet stream to retreat far to the north, and then that leaves us just looking at
scattered precipitation chances. So, once that jet stream moves to the north, we don't get,
(02:38):
um... these big low-pressure systems with a front moving through where the whole state's going to
get needed rainfall. Instead, like we saw this summer, even when we got some rain in July and
August, it was these popup thunderstorms, and it was tough to really get a... a good rainfall from
those. And so, that's been, uh... tricky and... and is something we're still seeing here as we're
(02:58):
warm going into October is... is no sign of that jet stream currently. (Tim) Wow. And,
um... lot... a lot of times we're so dry that when we do start getting a big front coming through,
it just all evaporates before it gets to a dry area. (Zach) Yes. And that's
been something that always interests me is, uh... researching land atmosphere interactions. And so,
(03:22):
um... learning how a dry ground, dry vegetation, um... can actually impact how much moisture is
in the lower atmosphere. And so, you're right. As these systems, um... move across, we do know that
just those boundary conditions can also influence and, uh... maybe weaken some of the amount of
moisture there too. So, uh... kind of fascinating but scary also because when you're in drought,
(03:45):
it can kind of lead to more drought. (Tim) Right! Because it seemed like it takes a really big
system to... to end the drought and start going back the other way. (Zach) Yes. And... and that's
what we saw last year. It was around Halloween into the first week of November, um... we just
got several rounds of significant rainfall, and it kind of helped us out. And so, that'll be
(04:07):
the big question at this point because now we've had this drought over the past couple of months,
and we now see these precipitation deficits. Um... the rain was helpful last week in mid-September,
but we need to see kind of a wetter pattern, like you mentioned, to fully recover and...
and end this drought. (Tim) So, do some of our big droughts start actually in the fall, late
(04:29):
summer of the previous year and fall? (Zach) Yes. Um... so we don't always see a... a full growing
season drought. And even just looking at the past four years, we've had a drought every year,
but '22, '24, and now '25 were just kind of late season events. And so, that's been interesting to
me learning about Missouri's kind of drought characteristics because, uh... it has a lot
(04:52):
of impacts on what... what the ag impacts are as well. Because, if we saw this full growing season
drought, we might have, uh... issues everywhere, but when it's certain times of the year, it really
changes that too. (Tim) So the winter time, late fall/winter can change that? Can get us back to
more of a normal pattern again? (Zach) Yeah. So, um... usually during the... the winter,
(05:13):
uh... on average, that's a time of year when we do see some soil moisture recharge. And so, that's
really important to... to have that precip as we go into the winter and even during those colder
months, so that once we get into the spring next year, we're not, uh... starting with reduced soil
moisture there. (Tim) So, speaking of this fall and winter, what are you thinking? (Zach) Yeah.
(05:35):
So, you know, as we speak today, looking at the first week of October, unfortunately, it looks
like we've seen warm and dry. And so, um... we are still dealing with drought here, and... and we'll
be looking for rainfall. Unfortunately, the... the kind of official outlook for October from
the Climate Prediction Center in NOAA is leaning on the... the dry side. So, um, they're... they're
(05:58):
calling for slightly, uh... drier than average, or... or the probability of slightly drier than
average conditions. And so, one takeaway I have from their forecast is, though it isn't very
strong on the probabilities for... for dryness, but there's not much of an indication of a wet
October in their forecast. And so, to me that's... that says the drought will kind of persist or even
(06:21):
get worse if we do have a dry October there. So that's a little concerning. And then also to
kind of go along with that dry forecast, they're forecasting a higher probability of above average
temperatures too. And so, kind of a what we'd call a persistence forecast. So we had a warm and dry
September and... and August, so we... we would expect that into October, too. So, um... maybe a
(06:45):
late, uh... frost as a result of that because once we get into that third and last week of October,
that's when on average we see that first frost unless you're, um... in St. Louis or the Bootheel
where it's a little bit later into November, um... and then the drought there. And then looking into
the long-term though, there might be a little bit more optimism. Um... one thing we're looking for
(07:09):
is the chance of a La Nina. And so, last year was a La Nina winter. And when we look back
for the state, it was characterized by a really active start to the winter. November and December
we had a lot of rainfall, and then we got into this cold and snowy pattern as well. And that's,
um... really what we typically see in this part of the country for a La Nina event,
(07:33):
and so, we're watching that now. Um... the kind of factor that's making it a little bit difficult is,
uh... La Nina is where we monitor the Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures. And uh... when
they're cooler than average, that's these La Nina events. And right now, the temperatures are
actually closer to normal. Uh... we jokingly call it a La Nada because we haven't gotten to that La
(07:56):
Nina yet, but the forecast is for over the next couple of months, the temperatures to cool enough
where we're officially in a La Nina, but it's expected to be a really weak La Nina. Um... just
barely crossing that threshold, and then maybe not last that long. And so, as a seasonal forecaster,
that's usually the first thing we look at is El Nino or La Nina. That explains a lot of
(08:19):
the variance for a season, um... but we don't have that tool as much if it's a weak or short-lived La
Nina. So, I'd be optimistic for a La Nina winter like last year where we did see drought recovery,
um... but as of right now, that maybe cold and snowy, or cold and wet, forecast could be...
have a lot of uncertainty to behind it too. (Tim) So, if we don't... so, if we have a weak La Nina,
(08:45):
what about then this spring and next summer? Do we have any idea on that? (Zach) Yeah. So,
um... these models that try and forecast the really slow changes of ocean temperatures, um...
they are predicting us to eventually warm into an El Nino next year. But I will note that the
models have really struggled this past year. Um... I think they've been slow to the... the changes.
(09:10):
They've been predicting this La Nina event to happen since, uh... this summer. Um, but it
kind of keeps getting pushed back. And so, um... while next year could be an El Nino of a year, and
that's kind of what they're... they're showing, um... still a lot of uncertainty there. (Tim) So
if we're in between El Nino and La Nina, what's usually happens? What's... what's a typical summer
(09:31):
like then? (Zach) Yeah. So that's when we don't have as much kind of good, what we call composites
or analog years. So when we don't have the El Nino or La Nina that we see these characteristics,
um... there's not as much, uh... of a consensus on what the weather will be. And so, uh... you see
a lot of variability, and it's difficult to kind of make a... make a forecast when you don't have,
(09:54):
uh... this signal here. So, um... and this year, you know, it... it... it's... it's hard to tell
if... if maybe, um... as these surface, uh... or as these sea surface temperatures started to cool,
is that why we got dry because usually a La Nina, um... can mean a drier fall. Uh... but it's still
such a... a weak La Nina, it's hard to really draw that relationship. (Tim) So, what were we
(10:18):
in last spring and the summer then? Were we just in between or were we at El Nino? (Zach) Yeah. So,
actually we came out of La Nina last year. Um... warmed into this La Nada. We were wondering if
we would go into an El Nino, and then now have kind of dipped back into La Nina and will be over
the next couple of months. So, um... and that happens too. You don't always flip from El Nino
(10:40):
to La Nina. Sometimes, uh... like... like this year, we can go to normal and then back to La
Nina. So that's been kind of an interesting thing to see this year. (Tim) You know, in my career,
as far as agricultural career for 40... almost 50 years I guess now, uh... the two biggest droughts
(1980 and 2012), to me all started that fall because both times we had these beautiful falls
(11:09):
of getting everything harvested, and then we followed up with a really bad summer. And so,
that was probably a La Nina then going to El Nino, wasn't it? (Zach) Yeah. (Tim) It was...
that's... that's when that happens. (Zach) Yeah. And that would explain, especially 2012 too, where,
um... we also went from that a wet year in 2011, which probably led to a good harvest,
(11:33):
but then dried out and got into really one of our more extreme, not just drought, but warmest year
on record too. So that was a very strong El Nino event too. And so, and... and that observation is
really why we watch these as climatologists is because the ocean temperatures evolve so
slowly that they really do have an impact on these longer term trends. So an El Nino is not
(11:56):
going to help you forecast like a thunderstorm this week or the 7-day forecast, but these,
you know, three to six month kind of cooling or warming trends, you can really try and follow
that way. (Tim) And then blocking highs can have a lot to do with it too, can't it? (Zach) Yeah. So,
a lot of times when we get in a heat wave or just kind of a drought like this fall,
you hear about these blocking highs or a heat dome, just an area of high pressure that's really
(12:21):
suppressing any kind of convection or moisture. Um... those can be related to El Nino and La Nina,
um... when... when you get a blocking high for a few weeks or a few months. And that's because,
um... it's not just those ocean temperatures that are directly impacting our temperatures in precip,
um... but they're impacting the just general atmospheric circulation,
(12:43):
so the global jet stream as well. Um... and so you see these El Nino/La Nina impacts everywhere
here as well. (Tim) So what in the world changes the... the temperature of the ocean off the coast
of South America? What... what... what changes that? (Zach) Yeah. So it's, uh... it's really
kind of a... an interesting phenomenon, and it's a cycle and a feedback between the atmosphere and
(13:06):
ocean as well. And so, um... eventually what you get is a low pressure that... that sets up kind of
stationary off the coast of South America. And so, that low pressure is generally kind of rising air
there at the surface, and that starts bringing up cooler water from below the surface there as well.
And then your low pressure, um... also sets up with a... kind of a... a high pressure farther
(13:32):
west and you get this, uh... flow, westerly flow where now you move that cool water,
um... to the... the, uh... area of higher pressure too there as well. And so, um... this kind of goes
back and forth, this process where you'll develop the... the atmospheric pressure that pulls the
water and then... and then moves it across. And so basically, you've got this dipole in
(13:53):
the eastern and western Pacific of cooler and... and warmer, uh... sea surface temperatures. And
so when we measure El Nino or La Nina, there's actually, uh... several different boxes, but
the most commonly used is called the... the 3.4, and it's kind of just generally across the... the
whole Pacific, but from, uh... five degrees south to 5 degrees north. So that's where you'll really
(14:17):
see those changes in the water temperature. (Tim) And because they're southwest of us,
that's where we're... it effects us, isn't it? I suppose? (Zach) Yeah. So, um... but we really
see the... the global effects because there at the equator, um... you know, this kind of
starts where we see our... our global circulation patterns where ultimately the jet stream and all
these highs and low pressure, they're... they're really designed to move heat from the equator to
(14:41):
the poles. And so, when you change what's going on at the equator, it really changed kind of
the patterns as well. And so, that's why it's so important in that area in the Pacific. (Tim) They
have documented some ice that we're losing in Antarctica. Can that affect everything,
these... these... these patterns too? (Zach) Yeah. So that's where it gets tricky. Um... so we've seen,
(15:04):
uh... quite a bit of sea ice loss in both poles, including the Antarctic and Arctic,
and that can impact, um... global sea surface temperatures as well if there's enough, um... kind
of ice there. So, as a climatologist, we're kind of constantly trying to look at these sea surface
temperatures relative to normal. And so, you know, there's a lot of uncertainty with the ice because
(15:26):
it doesn't just go into the ocean and immediately cool the water. It can also impact sea surface
currents which impact how different temperature of water kind of piles up in the oceans there. So,
we're measuring the sea surface temperature in this box, but if it is changing due to other
factors, we might be a little bit off on what our La Nina or El Nino is. (Tim) Sure. Because the ice
(15:48):
reflects sun, doesn't it? (Zach) Yes. Yeah. (Tim) So that can change the amount of heat absorbed
and all that kind of... thing. (Zach) Yes. And so, you could have cooling from the ice, but also then
you're... you're removing your protection there as well. So then, uh... now the water's absorbing,
uh... more of that sunlight too. So, uh... a lot of things that can change. (Tim) It looks
(16:08):
like for 2025/2026 winter, we're setting up somewhat like last year, but maybe not quite as
strong. (Zach) Correct. Yes. And so, um... for me, I'm... I'm... I'm looking for kind of an active
pattern in the winter, um... and could... could be snowy, especially once we get into January and
February when we see most of our snow and maybe cooler temperatures there as well. (Tim) But a
(16:31):
beautiful harvest. (Zach) A beautiful harvest. Yeah. So, I mean, some are enjoying this dry
pattern in early October if... if you do need to get out there. (Tim) You know, I've... last couple
of falls, I've planted wheat, and I always keep remembering, "If you plant wheat in the dust, your
bins were bust." And we've had some really good wheat yields in the... in the... in the spring.
So... (Zach) Yes. And I think hopefully this year the... the mid-September rain will help for some
(16:55):
fall planting, too. Um... if we hadn't got that, things might be a little bit more dire with the...
the drought situation. (Tim) All right. Well... well, thanks. So... so... so we do have something
to look forward to that will... could break this pattern and... and by the next spring and summer,
we could be in totally different... back into a more of a normal rainfall pattern. (Zach) Yes.
There is reason for... for optimism. Um... and I'll note too, I've... we've gone now four
(17:19):
consecutive growing seasons with drought, and I've gotten the question, how rare is that in Missouri?
And... and these were... have been severe droughts as well going up to D2 or D3 on the
US drought monitor. And so looking back at... at our climate, we do see these long stretches, um...
but it is getting pretty rare. So, um... some of our... our longest droughts ever, uh... would be,
(17:42):
uh... from 1931 to '36. We had five consecutive growing seasons in the Dust Bowl. Maybe some
relief in the winter, but if you look at just April to November, they just kept getting hit with
drought. Um... and then also the early 50s. So, 1950 through '54, five consecutive drought years
there. So, we're not as extreme each of the past few years as some of those in the 30s and 50s,
(18:04):
but if we saw another drought year, um... that's one of the longest stretches on our... our climate
record. So it has been kind of an unusual drought stretch there. (Tim) Yeah. I've always heard my
dad and those groups talking about the 30s and the 50s being pretty rough years. (Zach) Yeah,
the 50s don't get as much attention because I think that... that we learned so much from
(18:27):
the Dust Bowl that the impacts were a little bit better mitigated, but still just from a weather
perspective, it was just as hot and dry then as... as far as extremes. (Tim) I heard some,
uh... farmers talking about how much more drought tolerant corn is now than it used
to be. (Zach) Yes! (Tim) And that's mitigated some of these issues. (Zach) And I've... I've seen that
too. I don't have a lot of expertise with the... the yields, but when I look at the climate data
(18:52):
and then corn yields, for example, in Missouri over the past 30 years, you see this increasing
yield, and it's sometimes hard as a climatologist to look at that year and see maybe a drought or no
drought and the impact it has on the corn because, uh... they've definitely become more resilient,
and you still get high yields when the weather's not perfect. (Tim) You know, I was looking at the
Sanborn Field data and, um... I was trying to figure out when we went with hybrid corn,
(19:18):
did that make a difference on the... on the... on the resiliency, you know... you know, to... to
the... to the drought and such. But I also saw in that period you're talking about in the early 30s,
some zero corn yields. (Zach) Wow. And I think today you... you wouldn't see those
zeros. (Tim) No. No, you wouldn't. (Zach) You'd at least grow something and... and
manage. (Tim) Right. Right. (Zach) So that's fascinating to... (Tim) Yeah. Even comparing,
(19:38):
we mentioned 1980 earlier and 2012, yet it was... '12 was just as bad as '80. (Zach) Sure. (Tim) But
we had a lot more corn yield. (Zach) Yes. (Tim) And soybean yield. So... so we are... our breeders
are helping us out a lot on that. (Zach) Yeah, and it's exciting for... for me too because all
I do as a climatologist is... is tell us how dry it is, but it's good that there's hope. You know,
(20:00):
others are finding ways to address this situation where we're going to see drought in Missouri,
what practices or... or what breeding techniques can make things more resilient. (Tim) Yeah, I... I
know we... we... we... we take a lot of soil data in... in the summer with and without cover crops
and we're seeing that we have more soil moisture in the middle of the summer with a cover crop
(20:21):
than we do without. (Zach) Yes. (Tim) Little things like that that we can do. (Zach) Yeah,
and... and I definitely, coming from a non-ag background but talking to farmers about drought,
hear a lot about that. They're thinking about solutions like cover crops or what
different forages can they plant that might be a little bit more resilient to drought. And so,
um... that's really interesting to... to learn about as well. (Tim) All right. All right. Well,
(20:45):
before we close on this, anything else you want to say about our forecast over the next six
months or so? (Zach) Yeah. Well, whenever kind of forecasting drought, I hope I'm wrong, and... and
we see a lot of rainfall here and... and a quicker recovery than expected. (Tim) Well, let's wait
till harvest gets done first. (Zach) Yes! That's a good compromise. (Tim) That's right. All right.
Well, hi, folks! Welcome back to Tim's Take, and we're continuing our discussion with Dr.
(21:07):
Zach Leasor, our State Extension Climatologist. But now we're going to talk about the Mesonet and
some neat things that you're going to be starting here real soon. (Zach Leasor) I definitely wanted
to talk about an exciting project that we're working on with the Missouri Department of Natural
Resources. It's called the Missouri Hydrology Information Center, or MoHIC. There's a lot of
(21:28):
different... (Tim) MoHIC?! (Zach) MoHIC. That's correct. (Tim) Missouri hick. (Zach) Yes. But,
uh... no, MoHIC is a... is a really exciting project. It in... it involves more than just,
uh... the Mesonet and the Missouri Climate Center, but our part is really exciting because we're
working on soil moisture monitoring and expanding that across the state. And so, this is something
(21:49):
that's really important here in Missouri, but honestly, all across the plains and the Midwest,
these states are taking initiatives like Missouri, um... to invest in more soil moisture data, to,
um... learn more about what happens after it rains, uh... whether that...
that rainfall is getting into the soil and... and monitor droughts and floods as well. So,
(22:09):
uh... lots of exciting things with soil moisture we're working on right now. (Tim) Because on... on
the, uh... on the Mesonet, describe that real quick. (Zach) Yeah, so the Missouri Mesonet,
um... has been in existence since the mid-90s. Um... but it is a network of 47 automated weather
stations across the... the state of Missouri. So, these automated weather stations mean that,
(22:32):
um... they provide lots of different weather data, not just rainfall but temperature, humidity,
um... winds, even some soil temperature data and other variables, but every five minutes.
And then these data are available, uh... free online at the Mesonet as well. And so,
um... so these stations have... have been in existence, and they're good for real-time,
(22:54):
you know, decision making. If you need to see if it rained last night or check the winds before you
go out, that data is right there. Certainly helps to monitor severe storm events. But I think the
real value, um... has been now that we have the climatology with the Mesonet too. So, uh... the
Mesonet has been in existence long before I got here, and... and the previous state climatologist
(23:15):
Pat Guinan and, uh... John Travlos, who still manages the Mesonet, um... they've worked a
long time and some of these stations now have 30 years of data! And that's a local climatology.
It's measured right where you're working or... or studying, and... and that's important because we
know weather can really vary over short... short spaces. And so, at those locations,
(23:38):
we've got the local average annual rainfall, how much we expect each year, but also based
on temperatures, we know the probability of frost dates and planting dates as well. So, you start to
build all of this decision-making information once you've invested in... in collecting that data for a
really long time. (Tim) Because one time we were talking about how you start talking about drought,
(24:01):
that that's changed because we are... are you talking about compared to 1934? Well,
it's pretty wet this year, you know, because we had those severe droughts. So, we have to compare
it to something, and now you got the data that you can compare it to. (Zach) Correct. And it's recent
data, too, that we're always adding to. And it's so important for things like drought. One of the
(24:24):
things I work on as a climatologist is how do we define drought? And we know drought is, uh... less
than normal precipitation, but we need to know the normal there too. And so that's one reason to
have a climatology because we can look at... at, for example, Sanborn Field, the two driest years,
2012, which everyone expects, but kind of surprisingly, 2023... (Tim) Yes! (Zach) ...at
(24:47):
Sanborn was drier! And... and that kind of context is... is really important. Now, it does get
tricky, though, and... and that we kind of look at the... the past 30 years as... as a normal,
or once we feel confident in a kind of statistical baseline to compare against, but sometimes that
normal is changing too, which makes, uh... drought assessment really tricky here. So,
(25:09):
um... long-term data though, really helped to... to tell the story with drought. (Tim) You know,
sometimes even if you go... well, we're talking about the just... just a growing season, but I
think in 2012, it was terribly dry and the very last couple days of August, we got a hurricane
remnants and we got a big inch and 8/10ths rain. Well, that kind of changes your... your monthly
(25:31):
totals a little bit. It skews them just a little bit. (Zach) Yes. (Tim) So, you... you almost need
to almost look at by day or week or something. (Zach) Yeah! No, you're absolutely right. And the
Mesonet gives us kind of more... I've mentioned, localized information, but often times better,
uh... resolution information for getting rainfall and other things. And so, a lot of times most of
(25:51):
our rainfall and... and snowfall data when you see it on the news, for example, is coming from a
rain gauge observer. Maybe it's a National Weather Service or a volunteer observer, um... but these
are usually going to be once a day, just rainfall totals, or they will report snowfall too. That's
a lot different than what the Mesonet can show. We can show five minute rainfall data and look at
(26:15):
things like the intensity of the rainfall, um... and then look at the month as a total for example.
It's... did this rain come an inch a week? Kind of how we would want it, or did it stack up as
well? Those are all reasons you want to keep a... as high quality of a record of the data as you
can. (Tim) I know I look at yours all the time because I look at about four of them in this area
(26:38):
just to try to see how, you know, how scattered is... is the rain and... and such. And sometimes
when I... a big front's coming, I'll look at some of the ones that's... that's already passed. Like
what do they get at Linneus? You know, for example. (Zach) Absolutely. (Tim) Because
it's coming this way. So I'll look, or... or at Marshall or someplace and, oh! They only
(26:58):
got a half inch. That means I'm not going to... this... this is moving so fast. I'm not going to
get much. (Zach) Yeah, and that real time's great for that. And you can also see if a front's coming
through, how cold is it getting behind there? And for severe weather, unfortunately, we often pick
up a lot of wind gusts that... that go into, you know, a severe storm local report if we get a 50
or 60 mph gust, too. So, really capture quite a bit of information. (Tim) Well, we've used your
(27:22):
data for... for insurance claims. (Zach) Yes. (Tim) To say, "It did get to 60 miles an hour.
Here it is." (Zach) Yes! (Tim) So that, that helps, too. (Zach) That's what they're designed
to... to measure, but um... they do unfortunately get impacted by severe weather. And over the past,
we've also seen hail, you know, hit the weather stations and cause repairs, and even tornadoes as
well. (Tim) So, you're going to be monitoring soil moisture then? (Zach) Yeah, so that's kind of the
(27:47):
next variable. So in the past, the Mesonets, at a few stations, set up some projects to measure
soil moisture, but only at some shallow depths and for a few locations. With this MoHIC project,
so the Mesonet and... and John and his team are looking at installing soil moisture sensors
at about half of the stations across the state. Really, a lot of us have been making an evaluation
(28:10):
of which stations. Some of the locations because of the topography in the site or maybe the soil's
been disturbed, it's just not a good site for soil moisture monitoring. And then in some
locations like Boone County, we might have some redundancies, so pick it just a couple spots. Um,
but it should be about half. And in fact, that's already started. So, um... DNR is really leading
(28:31):
the charge on digging and installing the... the sensors. And so, the first installation was
this fall at South Farm. And, uh, these sensors are, uh... 15-inch soil moisture probes. And so,
you would see two metal probes, and they go, uh... horizontally into the side of a... a soil profile.
And so, these are being buried at 2, 4, and 8 inch depths, which uh... are really important near
(28:55):
the... the surface for... (Tim) Right. Right. (Zach) ...soil temperatures and... and some
shallow root zone moisture, but also down to 20 and 40 inch depths where we're going to see a lot
more slower response to moisture, um... there as well. And so, um... that'll be soil moisture and
temperature data at all of those depths, um... in real time as well. So, um... by next season,
(29:16):
we... we really expect a lot of these data to be available, and... and also some tools we're
building on top of the soil moisture as well. (Tim) You'll have a... a grass crop or something
grown on top of it that'll suck the water out? (Zach) So, yeah. These will... all these will
not be under bare soil. So these will all be buried under sod. And so, that will be important
to consider and that this is going to reflect the soil moisture responding to the weather if
(29:40):
we just kind of let it be under sod and... and mow occasionally. So this isn't going to take
into account, um... management, like you would in a crop field of the soil moisture, or plant
water use of something that uses a little bit more water than sod, like if you had corn or soybeans.
So there will be some kind of communication and learning how to use that soil moisture, uh...
(30:02):
for crop management as well. But I think it'll be very important data. (Tim) Oh, it will! Because we
can see... what I'm interested in is how much our deeper profile get... gets depleted. (Zach) Yes!
And, um... I think that's a very relevant question to right now where we've been in a drought,
and we just received some rainfall in September. We can go outside and make a quick assessment,
(30:25):
see things have kind of greened up, and you can look at the soil and know that the top soil got
wet, but how deep did that... that rainfall infiltrate? Did we really get into the subsoil
and... and recharge the moisture? That's what these sensors can... can tell us there. And it
is fascinating to see the moisture at different depths because the top will respond pretty quickly
after a rainfall event, but you kind of get a better idea of the total water storage for
(30:51):
those deeper depths that... that take a little bit to dry out or... or moisten as well. (Tim) Well,
as we discussed last time, over the winter is... winter is when you can re... replenish some of
that subsoil moisture. (Zach) Yes. There is a... a kind of seasonal cycle of soil moisture in that,
um... by the spring we call it a moist plateau where usually on average your soil moisture is...
(31:11):
is, you've got full saturated soils from a wet spring, and then usually we see that soil moisture
decrease to a minimum in the fall just because of plant transpiration and evaporation, and then on
average we recharge the soils during the winter. And so, a lot of people think soil moisture and
growing season conditions, but then we're... we're looking down into the winter, and we'll... we
(31:32):
will have the data to watch, you know, how... how much is that soil moisture recharging? Are... are
we getting over these winter months rainfall into the deeper layers? And that can be tricky because,
in Missouri on average, we don't get, you know, a deep frost depth and... and see these frozen soils
for a long time. But we do see periods where we'll get cold and... and then have rainfall on frozen
(31:54):
soils where it may not infiltrate and being able to monitor that as well. (Tim) But a snowfall,
since it melts slowly often, it soaks in lot... a lot, doesn't it? (Zach) Yeah, it depends. It
can be. It depends all on the antecedent soil temperature. If you've kind of been warm and
you get a big snowfall, um... that's great for soil moisture because the soil's kind of melting
(32:18):
a lot of that snowfall... (Tim) Right. (Zach) ...from, uh... the ground on top of whatever
the sun's doing, too. And so that soaks in really nice. I would say though, what we had last winter,
without having a ton of measurements, uh... wasn't an ideal situation because we got into, you know,
our January polar vortex and really cold for a couple weeks, and that did freeze the soils.
(32:39):
And then we got some of those snowfall events, and they just stuck around for a couple weeks because
of the cold. And I would say in that situation, really you lost most of your moisture kind of
slowly evaporating each day instead of making it into the soil. But, you know, these are pretty
complex things too that we'll be able to monitor now having those temperature and moisture probes
(33:00):
at different depths. So, it's going to give us a lot more insight, um... during different parts of
the season. (Tim) You know, I'll never forget. We were having a dry summer, and I went up to a
field day in northwest Missouri, and they'd been having a dry summer, but I kept noticing that
their crops looked a lot worse than ours. So I got their field day book and realized they had had
(33:21):
two years of drought. They had not replenished their soil... subsoil moisture, so... so they were
really hurting. (Zach) Yes. (Tim) So... so that can... we can kind of judge that too is how bad
are we really... really, uh... deficit. (Zach) Absolutely. So that's going to be very relevant
for Missouri because another thing we then look at in the spring is... okay, usually the top soil
(33:45):
moisture is going to be there in March and April as long as we're having a normal Missouri spring,
but coming off of drought years, and in... in this case, coming off of multiple drought years
for a lot of our... our state, um... how's that deep moisture? (Tim) Yes. (Zach) Uh... because
that takes a longer time to recharge, and you really need a wetter pattern at that point.
That's important because you might not need it immediately in April and May, but if you get dry,
(34:08):
you're only going to go into drought quicker if you don't have some of that deeper moisture. And
so, um... that'll be another critical time of year where we'll be using that soil moisture. And then,
of course, once you get into the season, just how is it responding to temperatures and,
um... precipitation as well. (Tim) So is the one at South Farm up that we can actually see
(34:29):
it? (Zach) We have the sensors installed. The data are not up right now. (Tim) Ok. (Zach) So
currently, um... we're kind of calibrating the sensors, also waiting on... on some of the soil
to settle too. (Tim) Sure. (Zach) So, the way these are, it's really an interesting process,
but it takes a long time to install, but they'll dig down, um... into the pit and very carefully
remove the soil in the order of the profile. Um... then once the... the probes are installed, they
(34:54):
really backfill and tamp down that soil as in the right order as much as they can. Um... but then
we want to kind of wait and wait on some rainfall events to... to see how the data is looking. By
next spring, we should have the... the soil moisture at these stations available. Um... but also as
a part of the MoHIC project, uh... the climate center is also working with MoRAP, the Missouri
(35:16):
Resources Assessment Partnership on campus, and we're looking to make, uh... high resolution soil
moisture map. Even with, uh... soil moisture at these Mesonet stations, uh... there's still lots
of parts of the state that aren't going to have the... these data available to them. How can we
use what's available as far as the soil moisture measurements, um... but then also look at some
(35:37):
other data sets too? And so, uh... MoRAP has a lot of experience with, uh... geospatial modeling,
and so we're kind of looking at machine learning to use mixture of climate data, so knowing our
rainfall and temperatures, but also combining that with the soil characteristics too, um... to try
and model soil moisture. And so, um... the end goal of the project is that, um... by the end
(36:00):
of next summer, we'll have 250 meter resolution maps that show a grid of the soil moisture and
soil temperature across the state, and these would update daily. And we're really excited for those
too because it may not, you know, it's a model, so it may not perfectly get at that soil moisture,
um... but we are going to have some of the... the radar precipitation, and hopefully it can kind of
(36:22):
dive into the local variations of soil moisture there. So, that's another output of the project
that we're excited about. (Tim) That's great. Yeah, we can better anticipate what kind of
conditions that we're going to have now, don't... don't we? (Zach) Yes. (Tim) With this. Um... back
on your Mesonet, you know, I... I use it a lot, and... and one thing I see is evapotranspiration.
(36:46):
Can you explain to our listeners what that is? (Zach) Yes! Evapotranspiration is, um... the
combined movement of water from the land surface to the atmosphere through, uh... evaporation
but also transpiration, which is plant water movement. So where plants are taking up water,
um... from under the soil and... and moving it into the plant and out through their stomata.
(37:06):
And so evapotranspiration is basically how much water is moving from the ground to the atmosphere.
The Mesonet, we calculate it hourly and come up with a... a sum for the day. And so usually in a
hot summer day like today when we're recording, or a hot fall day, um... we might see up to two
tenths of an inch of evapotranspiration, and that basically means, uh... you've lost the equivalent
(37:30):
of a 0.2 inch rainfall event from your soil in water that day. (Tim) So that's more than an inch
a week?! (Zach) Yes. And in fact, that's really important during the summer. (Tim) Yes! (Zach) So,
um... (Tim) Cuz I've seen .35s before in the summer. (Zach) Yes. And, uh... the higher the
temperatures, the... the sunnier the conditions, that's when you're going to have the highest
evapotranspiration. And we can have very high rates during the summer, particularly during
(37:54):
drought, but a lot of times, it's really useful to have that evapotranspiration as a water balance
model because, our rule of thumb just from taking the monthly average rainfall is, on average,
we get about 1 inch a week of precipitation in the summer for rainfall anywhere across
the state. (Tim) Which is a deficit! (Zach) Yes! Exactly. And so if you're a farmer,
(38:15):
you need to know that that one inch on average is, you're losing water each week even if you get an
inch of rainfall. That gives you a better picture of where you're at from a water balance as far as
dryness and wetness there. And so, that's why we provide the evapotranspiration, um... data,
that to... to do the calculation, we have, uh... incoming solar radiation that we monitor with the
(38:37):
pyrometer, um... but then we have winds, humidity and temperature as well and... and are able to...
to estimate it with those calculations. (Tim) Yeah, I always look at those and get depressed
sometimes. I think, eww, we are losing! But... but, so we... that really tells us in the winter,
that's when we're going to build our soil moisture up. (Zach) Yes. And... and, um... yeah,
because you definitely don't lose much moisture at all, um... (Tim) Right. (Zach) ...compared
(39:01):
to the summer because you lose almost all of the vegetative component except for maybe some... some
tree species, um... and then evaporation is just so much lower during the winter months. So it's
kind of a bonus period where you can put a lot of rainfall and not worry about it being quickly,
um... removed and gone back to the atmosphere. (Tim) Oh, wow. So I think this... this helps
you really, really see where your... your balance is. And I also noticed on the Mesonet,
(39:25):
you do the feel like temperature. (Zach) Yes. Yeah. (Tim) That made me feel really, really
hot a few times. No wonder I feel so hot! (Zach) Yes. And... and that's a combination of the... the
humidity and temperature there, um... but it gives us a better idea of... of what the temperatures
actually are... are like outside. I think the past two or three years here in Missouri,
we've had a lot of heat waves that might not have been as impressive on paper from temperatures
(39:50):
where we might see 90s or upper 90s, but it was the humidity that was extremely high and creating
the more dangerous conditions. So, um... that's why we... we include that as well. (Tim) Because
our livestock producers, that's really important. (Zach) Yes. Um... they don't
want to just know temperature. (Tim) Not just for us. (Zach) Yeah. (Tim) That's not for Tim. That's
for the livestock. (Zach) Yep. Animals get... get uncomfortable too, and so they're looking at that.
(40:11):
A lot of factors, but the... the cattle definitely want to cool down at night too, and if we have
really high humidity in those muggy nights, that's not helpful. Um... but they also watch for, you
know, amount of sunlight, so how much the cattle are outside and, uh... winds too. The winds can
help kind of... the cattle sweat and remove some of that heat. (Tim) You know, we got to close up
(40:32):
here in just a minute, but you... you mentioned nighttime temperatures. Those are going up,
aren't they? (Zach) Yes. Um... (Tim) Our daytime really aren't. (Zach) Yeah, it's been interesting.
And... and the... our minimum temperatures are rising quite a bit. I get asked a lot, "What's
Missouri's, uh... temperature trend?" And really over the past 40 years, but over... over the whole
(40:52):
record we are seeing rising temperatures, but in Missouri, it doesn't tell the whole story.
You really have to break it down by season and then high and low temperatures. And basically,
our coldest temperatures are getting warmer. Our warmest temperatures are staying the same or...
or getting cooler. And so that means, we're seeing more warming during the winter months,
(41:14):
um... but also more warming with those overnight low temperatures. And so... (Tim) Being
higher. (Zach) Being higher as well. So... (Tim) In the summer? (Zach) In the summer. And so,
in... in the summer, our high temperatures are actually decreasing over the past 30 years where
minimum temperatures are increasing, um... and... and quite a bit more. So about two degrees, uh...
(41:34):
per century over the past 30 years for the minimum temperatures. And so, it kind of changes the flavor
of summer heat though. Um... we're still getting heat waves, but all of our all-time temperature
records that we set during the 30s and 50s, 100 to 110 or... we're not seeing that as much,
but instead, we're still getting these heat waves with a lot of humidity, but then not cooling down
(41:57):
at night. So you might have a night where the low is 80. (Tim) Right! (Zach) And that can be just
as bad for... for human and animal... (Tim) And plants! (Zach) Yeah. Plants don't like that either
as well. So that's an important trend to know because, uh... if we just say temperatures are
warmer, that doesn't tell the whole story. It's... it's these nighttime temperatures. (Zach) And
that's the beautiful thing about your Mesonet is that you can measure all of those. (Zach) Correct.
(42:20):
Yes. (Tim) And it's going to be different in the Bootheel versus northwest Missouri. They're
different climates. (Zach) Absolutely. Um... and we do see that. And we have really what we call
six climate divisions across Missouri, ranging from the Bootheel to the Northwest Prairie, as we
call it. But um... very diverse state climatically but also geographically too. (Tim) And probably
(42:40):
the Ozarks are a whole animal themselves. (Zach) Yes. Yep. And... and they kind of have their own
weird temperature records too because of the topography as well. So you see some,
some funny things. (Tim) Sometimes they're cold! (Zach) Yes. Exactly. (Tim) Yeah. All right,
Zach. We can talk about the weather all the time. This is... this is so much fun. But,
uh... thanks so much for coming out, and this is it for Tim's Take. (Zach) Thanks, Tim.
(43:02):
[♫]
[♫]
(Tim Reinbott) Well, welcome today to Tim's Take, and we are with Dr. Zack Leasor,
our State Extension Climatologist. (Zach Leasor) Yes, thank you for having me, Tim. (Tim) You know,
Zach, the climatologist, you either get credit or get blamed for everything. (Zach) Yes, absolutely.
(00:22):
And, uh... sometimes it feels like it can be both at the same time depending on what the weather's
doing in Missouri, too. (Tim) And we had that this past year. We had very wet conditions. Actually,
we thought we were going to have a really great growing season, then it turns out dry. (Zach) Yes.
And that kind of happened last year, too. (Tim) It did, didn't it? And... and... and what causes
(00:44):
that? (Zach) Yeah. So, you know, this year we really flipped the switch. It was wet in... in
April, May, and June. And in fact, um... some areas in southeast and southern Missouri were
too wet. Uh, April was the fourth wettest April on record for the state. Um, with records going back
to 1895. And a lot of that was from southeast and... and southern Missouri as well. So,
(01:06):
um... that started out the season, but once we got to July, um... really midway through July,
I-70 and south in the state, the... the rain really shut off, and we didn't see significant
precipitation until, uh... this last week here in mid-September. So, um... that's been tricky to...
to watch here. And it's really characteristic, though, of Missouri's climate. Being in the...
(01:29):
the center of the US, uh... we have a continental climate, which means we get all four seasons, but
it also means we can get, uh... all of these air masses moving from around us. And so, it's really
easy to switch from, uh... maybe a wet pattern to a dry pattern. In this part of the country, in
the... the central of the US, uh... that's really a notable thing. And so the past two years, we've
(01:52):
seen that switch from wet to dry so quickly that we actually call that a... a flash drought. And
so that's different from a regular drought where we think about monthly or seasonal differences
and kind of a long-term drought event. These flash droughts, once the rain stops and if it's
really hot like in July or August, um... you see conditions evolve in just a few weeks as opposed
(02:15):
to throughout the season. And so that's been two consecutive years with the flash drought. (Tim) Is
that because the jet stream has went back north? (Zach) Yeah. So, we're really prone this time of
year, um... for the jet stream to retreat far to the north, and then that leaves us just looking at
scattered precipitation chances. So, once that jet stream moves to the north, we don't get,
(02:38):
um... these big low-pressure systems with a front moving through where the whole state's going to
get needed rainfall. Instead, like we saw this summer, even when we got some rain in July and
August, it was these popup thunderstorms, and it was tough to really get a... a good rainfall from
those. And so, that's been, uh... tricky and... and is something we're still seeing here as we're
(02:58):
warm going into October is... is no sign of that jet stream currently. (Tim) Wow. And,
um... lot... a lot of times we're so dry that when we do start getting a big front coming through,
it just all evaporates before it gets to a dry area. (Zach) Yes. And that's
been something that always interests me is, uh... researching land atmosphere interactions. And so,
(03:22):
um... learning how a dry ground, dry vegetation, um... can actually impact how much moisture is
in the lower atmosphere. And so, you're right. As these systems, um... move across, we do know that
just those boundary conditions can also influence and, uh... maybe weaken some of the amount of
moisture there too. So, uh... kind of fascinating but scary also because when you're in drought,
(03:45):
it can kind of lead to more drought. (Tim) Right! Because it seemed like it takes a really big
system to... to end the drought and start going back the other way. (Zach) Yes. And... and that's
what we saw last year. It was around Halloween into the first week of November, um... we just
got several rounds of significant rainfall, and it kind of helped us out. And so, that'll be
(04:07):
the big question at this point because now we've had this drought over the past couple of months,
and we now see these precipitation deficits. Um... the rain was helpful last week in mid-September,
but we need to see kind of a wetter pattern, like you mentioned, to fully recover and...
and end this drought. (Tim) So, do some of our big droughts start actually in the fall, late
(04:29):
summer of the previous year and fall? (Zach) Yes. Um... so we don't always see a... a full growing
season drought. And even just looking at the past four years, we've had a drought every year,
but '22, '24, and now '25 were just kind of late season events. And so, that's been interesting to
me learning about Missouri's kind of drought characteristics because, uh... it has a lot
(04:52):
of impacts on what... what the ag impacts are as well. Because, if we saw this full growing season
drought, we might have, uh... issues everywhere, but when it's certain times of the year, it really
changes that too. (Tim) So the winter time, late fall/winter can change that? Can get us back to
more of a normal pattern again? (Zach) Yeah. So, um... usually during the... the winter,
(05:13):
uh... on average, that's a time of year when we do see some soil moisture recharge. And so, that's
really important to... to have that precip as we go into the winter and even during those colder
months, so that once we get into the spring next year, we're not, uh... starting with reduced soil
moisture there. (Tim) So, speaking of this fall and winter, what are you thinking? (Zach) Yeah.
(05:35):
So, you know, as we speak today, looking at the first week of October, unfortunately, it looks
like we've seen warm and dry. And so, um... we are still dealing with drought here, and... and we'll
be looking for rainfall. Unfortunately, the... the kind of official outlook for October from
the Climate Prediction Center in NOAA is leaning on the... the dry side. So, um, they're... they're
(05:58):
calling for slightly, uh... drier than average, or... or the probability of slightly drier than
average conditions. And so, one takeaway I have from their forecast is, though it isn't very
strong on the probabilities for... for dryness, but there's not much of an indication of a wet
October in their forecast. And so, to me that's... that says the drought will kind of persist or even
(06:21):
get worse if we do have a dry October there. So that's a little concerning. And then also to
kind of go along with that dry forecast, they're forecasting a higher probability of above average
temperatures too. And so, kind of a what we'd call a persistence forecast. So we had a warm and dry
September and... and August, so we... we would expect that into October, too. So, um... maybe a
(06:45):
late, uh... frost as a result of that because once we get into that third and last week of October,
that's when on average we see that first frost unless you're, um... in St. Louis or the Bootheel
where it's a little bit later into November, um... and then the drought there. And then looking into
the long-term though, there might be a little bit more optimism. Um... one thing we're looking for
(07:09):
is the chance of a La Nina. And so, last year was a La Nina winter. And when we look back
for the state, it was characterized by a really active start to the winter. November and December
we had a lot of rainfall, and then we got into this cold and snowy pattern as well. And that's,
um... really what we typically see in this part of the country for a La Nina event,
(07:33):
and so, we're watching that now. Um... the kind of factor that's making it a little bit difficult is,
uh... La Nina is where we monitor the Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures. And uh... when
they're cooler than average, that's these La Nina events. And right now, the temperatures are
actually closer to normal. Uh... we jokingly call it a La Nada because we haven't gotten to that La
(07:56):
Nina yet, but the forecast is for over the next couple of months, the temperatures to cool enough
where we're officially in a La Nina, but it's expected to be a really weak La Nina. Um... just
barely crossing that threshold, and then maybe not last that long. And so, as a seasonal forecaster,
that's usually the first thing we look at is El Nino or La Nina. That explains a lot of
(08:19):
the variance for a season, um... but we don't have that tool as much if it's a weak or short-lived La
Nina. So, I'd be optimistic for a La Nina winter like last year where we did see drought recovery,
um... but as of right now, that maybe cold and snowy, or cold and wet, forecast could be...
have a lot of uncertainty to behind it too. (Tim) So, if we don't... so, if we have a weak La Nina,
(08:45):
what about then this spring and next summer? Do we have any idea on that? (Zach) Yeah. So,
um... these models that try and forecast the really slow changes of ocean temperatures, um...
they are predicting us to eventually warm into an El Nino next year. But I will note that the
models have really struggled this past year. Um... I think they've been slow to the... the changes.
(09:10):
They've been predicting this La Nina event to happen since, uh... this summer. Um, but it
kind of keeps getting pushed back. And so, um... while next year could be an El Nino of a year, and
that's kind of what they're... they're showing, um... still a lot of uncertainty there. (Tim) So
if we're in between El Nino and La Nina, what's usually happens? What's... what's a typical summer
(09:31):
like then? (Zach) Yeah. So that's when we don't have as much kind of good, what we call composites
or analog years. So when we don't have the El Nino or La Nina that we see these characteristics,
um... there's not as much, uh... of a consensus on what the weather will be. And so, uh... you see
a lot of variability, and it's difficult to kind of make a... make a forecast when you don't have,
(09:54):
uh... this signal here. So, um... and this year, you know, it... it... it's... it's hard to tell
if... if maybe, um... as these surface, uh... or as these sea surface temperatures started to cool,
is that why we got dry because usually a La Nina, um... can mean a drier fall. Uh... but it's still
such a... a weak La Nina, it's hard to really draw that relationship. (Tim) So, what were we
(10:18):
in last spring and the summer then? Were we just in between or were we at El Nino? (Zach) Yeah. So,
actually we came out of La Nina last year. Um... warmed into this La Nada. We were wondering if
we would go into an El Nino, and then now have kind of dipped back into La Nina and will be over
the next couple of months. So, um... and that happens too. You don't always flip from El Nino
(10:40):
to La Nina. Sometimes, uh... like... like this year, we can go to normal and then back to La
Nina. So that's been kind of an interesting thing to see this year. (Tim) You know, in my career,
as far as agricultural career for 40... almost 50 years I guess now, uh... the two biggest droughts
(1980 and 2012), to me all started that fall because both times we had these beautiful falls
(11:09):
of getting everything harvested, and then we followed up with a really bad summer. And so,
that was probably a La Nina then going to El Nino, wasn't it? (Zach) Yeah. (Tim) It was...
that's... that's when that happens. (Zach) Yeah. And that would explain, especially 2012 too, where,
um... we also went from that a wet year in 2011, which probably led to a good harvest,
(11:33):
but then dried out and got into really one of our more extreme, not just drought, but warmest year
on record too. So that was a very strong El Nino event too. And so, and... and that observation is
really why we watch these as climatologists is because the ocean temperatures evolve so
slowly that they really do have an impact on these longer term trends. So an El Nino is not
(11:56):
going to help you forecast like a thunderstorm this week or the 7-day forecast, but these,
you know, three to six month kind of cooling or warming trends, you can really try and follow
that way. (Tim) And then blocking highs can have a lot to do with it too, can't it? (Zach) Yeah. So,
a lot of times when we get in a heat wave or just kind of a drought like this fall,
you hear about these blocking highs or a heat dome, just an area of high pressure that's really
(12:21):
suppressing any kind of convection or moisture. Um... those can be related to El Nino and La Nina,
um... when... when you get a blocking high for a few weeks or a few months. And that's because,
um... it's not just those ocean temperatures that are directly impacting our temperatures in precip,
um... but they're impacting the just general atmospheric circulation,
(12:43):
so the global jet stream as well. Um... and so you see these El Nino/La Nina impacts everywhere
here as well. (Tim) So what in the world changes the... the temperature of the ocean off the coast
of South America? What... what... what changes that? (Zach) Yeah. So it's, uh... it's really
kind of a... an interesting phenomenon, and it's a cycle and a feedback between the atmosphere and
(13:06):
ocean as well. And so, um... eventually what you get is a low pressure that... that sets up kind of
stationary off the coast of South America. And so, that low pressure is generally kind of rising air
there at the surface, and that starts bringing up cooler water from below the surface there as well.
And then your low pressure, um... also sets up with a... kind of a... a high pressure farther
(13:32):
west and you get this, uh... flow, westerly flow where now you move that cool water,
um... to the... the, uh... area of higher pressure too there as well. And so, um... this kind of goes
back and forth, this process where you'll develop the... the atmospheric pressure that pulls the
water and then... and then moves it across. And so basically, you've got this dipole in
(13:53):
the eastern and western Pacific of cooler and... and warmer, uh... sea surface temperatures. And
so when we measure El Nino or La Nina, there's actually, uh... several different boxes, but
the most commonly used is called the... the 3.4, and it's kind of just generally across the... the
whole Pacific, but from, uh... five degrees south to 5 degrees north. So that's where you'll really
(14:17):
see those changes in the water temperature. (Tim) And because they're southwest of us,
that's where we're... it effects us, isn't it? I suppose? (Zach) Yeah. So, um... but we really
see the... the global effects because there at the equator, um... you know, this kind of
starts where we see our... our global circulation patterns where ultimately the jet stream and all
these highs and low pressure, they're... they're really designed to move heat from the equator to
(14:41):
the poles. And so, when you change what's going on at the equator, it really changed kind of
the patterns as well. And so, that's why it's so important in that area in the Pacific. (Tim) They
have documented some ice that we're losing in Antarctica. Can that affect everything,
these... these... these patterns too? (Zach) Yeah. So that's where it gets tricky. Um... so we've seen,
(15:04):
uh... quite a bit of sea ice loss in both poles, including the Antarctic and Arctic,
and that can impact, um... global sea surface temperatures as well if there's enough, um... kind
of ice there. So, as a climatologist, we're kind of constantly trying to look at these sea surface
temperatures relative to normal. And so, you know, there's a lot of uncertainty with the ice because
(15:26):
it doesn't just go into the ocean and immediately cool the water. It can also impact sea surface
currents which impact how different temperature of water kind of piles up in the oceans there. So,
we're measuring the sea surface temperature in this box, but if it is changing due to other
factors, we might be a little bit off on what our La Nina or El Nino is. (Tim) Sure. Because the ice
(15:48):
reflects sun, doesn't it? (Zach) Yes. Yeah. (Tim) So that can change the amount of heat absorbed
and all that kind of... thing. (Zach) Yes. And so, you could have cooling from the ice, but also then
you're... you're removing your protection there as well. So then, uh... now the water's absorbing,
uh... more of that sunlight too. So, uh... a lot of things that can change. (Tim) It looks
(16:08):
like for 2025/2026 winter, we're setting up somewhat like last year, but maybe not quite as
strong. (Zach) Correct. Yes. And so, um... for me, I'm... I'm... I'm looking for kind of an active
pattern in the winter, um... and could... could be snowy, especially once we get into January and
February when we see most of our snow and maybe cooler temperatures there as well. (Tim) But a
(16:31):
beautiful harvest. (Zach) A beautiful harvest. Yeah. So, I mean, some are enjoying this dry
pattern in early October if... if you do need to get out there. (Tim) You know, I've... last couple
of falls, I've planted wheat, and I always keep remembering, "If you plant wheat in the dust, your
bins were bust." And we've had some really good wheat yields in the... in the... in the spring.
So... (Zach) Yes. And I think hopefully this year the... the mid-September rain will help for some
(16:55):
fall planting, too. Um... if we hadn't got that, things might be a little bit more dire with the...
the drought situation. (Tim) All right. Well... well, thanks. So... so... so we do have something
to look forward to that will... could break this pattern and... and by the next spring and summer,
we could be in totally different... back into a more of a normal rainfall pattern. (Zach) Yes.
There is reason for... for optimism. Um... and I'll note too, I've... we've gone now four
(17:19):
consecutive growing seasons with drought, and I've gotten the question, how rare is that in Missouri?
And... and these were... have been severe droughts as well going up to D2 or D3 on the
US drought monitor. And so looking back at... at our climate, we do see these long stretches, um...
but it is getting pretty rare. So, um... some of our... our longest droughts ever, uh... would be,
(17:42):
uh... from 1931 to '36. We had five consecutive growing seasons in the Dust Bowl. Maybe some
relief in the winter, but if you look at just April to November, they just kept getting hit with
drought. Um... and then also the early 50s. So, 1950 through '54, five consecutive drought years
there. So, we're not as extreme each of the past few years as some of those in the 30s and 50s,
(18:04):
but if we saw another drought year, um... that's one of the longest stretches on our... our climate
record. So it has been kind of an unusual drought stretch there. (Tim) Yeah. I've always heard my
dad and those groups talking about the 30s and the 50s being pretty rough years. (Zach) Yeah,
the 50s don't get as much attention because I think that... that we learned so much from
(18:27):
the Dust Bowl that the impacts were a little bit better mitigated, but still just from a weather
perspective, it was just as hot and dry then as... as far as extremes. (Tim) I heard some,
uh... farmers talking about how much more drought tolerant corn is now than it used
to be. (Zach) Yes! (Tim) And that's mitigated some of these issues. (Zach) And I've... I've seen that
too. I don't have a lot of expertise with the... the yields, but when I look at the climate data
(18:52):
and then corn yields, for example, in Missouri over the past 30 years, you see this increasing
yield, and it's sometimes hard as a climatologist to look at that year and see maybe a drought or no
drought and the impact it has on the corn because, uh... they've definitely become more resilient,
and you still get high yields when the weather's not perfect. (Tim) You know, I was looking at the
Sanborn Field data and, um... I was trying to figure out when we went with hybrid corn,
(19:18):
did that make a difference on the... on the... on the resiliency, you know... you know, to... to
the... to the drought and such. But I also saw in that period you're talking about in the early 30s,
some zero corn yields. (Zach) Wow. And I think today you... you wouldn't see those
zeros. (Tim) No. No, you wouldn't. (Zach) You'd at least grow something and... and
manage. (Tim) Right. Right. (Zach) So that's fascinating to... (Tim) Yeah. Even comparing,
(19:38):
we mentioned 1980 earlier and 2012, yet it was... '12 was just as bad as '80. (Zach) Sure. (Tim) But
we had a lot more corn yield. (Zach) Yes. (Tim) And soybean yield. So... so we are... our breeders
are helping us out a lot on that. (Zach) Yeah, and it's exciting for... for me too because all
I do as a climatologist is... is tell us how dry it is, but it's good that there's hope. You know,
(20:00):
others are finding ways to address this situation where we're going to see drought in Missouri,
what practices or... or what breeding techniques can make things more resilient. (Tim) Yeah, I... I
know we... we... we... we take a lot of soil data in... in the summer with and without cover crops
and we're seeing that we have more soil moisture in the middle of the summer with a cover crop
(20:21):
than we do without. (Zach) Yes. (Tim) Little things like that that we can do. (Zach) Yeah,
and... and I definitely, coming from a non-ag background but talking to farmers about drought,
hear a lot about that. They're thinking about solutions like cover crops or what
different forages can they plant that might be a little bit more resilient to drought. And so,
um... that's really interesting to... to learn about as well. (Tim) All right. All right. Well,
(20:45):
before we close on this, anything else you want to say about our forecast over the next six
months or so? (Zach) Yeah. Well, whenever kind of forecasting drought, I hope I'm wrong, and... and
we see a lot of rainfall here and... and a quicker recovery than expected. (Tim) Well, let's wait
till harvest gets done first. (Zach) Yes! That's a good compromise. (Tim) That's right. All right.
Well, hi, folks! Welcome back to Tim's Take, and we're continuing our discussion with Dr.
(21:07):
Zach Leasor, our State Extension Climatologist. But now we're going to talk about the Mesonet and
some neat things that you're going to be starting here real soon. (Zach Leasor) I definitely wanted
to talk about an exciting project that we're working on with the Missouri Department of Natural
Resources. It's called the Missouri Hydrology Information Center, or MoHIC. There's a lot of
(21:28):
different... (Tim) MoHIC?! (Zach) MoHIC. That's correct. (Tim) Missouri hick. (Zach) Yes. But,
uh... no, MoHIC is a... is a really exciting project. It in... it involves more than just,
uh... the Mesonet and the Missouri Climate Center, but our part is really exciting because we're
working on soil moisture monitoring and expanding that across the state. And so, this is something
(21:49):
that's really important here in Missouri, but honestly, all across the plains and the Midwest,
these states are taking initiatives like Missouri, um... to invest in more soil moisture data, to,
um... learn more about what happens after it rains, uh... whether that...
that rainfall is getting into the soil and... and monitor droughts and floods as well. So,
(22:09):
uh... lots of exciting things with soil moisture we're working on right now. (Tim) Because on... on
the, uh... on the Mesonet, describe that real quick. (Zach) Yeah, so the Missouri Mesonet,
um... has been in existence since the mid-90s. Um... but it is a network of 47 automated weather
stations across the... the state of Missouri. So, these automated weather stations mean that,
(22:32):
um... they provide lots of different weather data, not just rainfall but temperature, humidity,
um... winds, even some soil temperature data and other variables, but every five minutes.
And then these data are available, uh... free online at the Mesonet as well. And so,
um... so these stations have... have been in existence, and they're good for real-time,
(22:54):
you know, decision making. If you need to see if it rained last night or check the winds before you
go out, that data is right there. Certainly helps to monitor severe storm events. But I think the
real value, um... has been now that we have the climatology with the Mesonet too. So, uh... the
Mesonet has been in existence long before I got here, and... and the previous state climatologist
(23:15):
Pat Guinan and, uh... John Travlos, who still manages the Mesonet, um... they've worked a
long time and some of these stations now have 30 years of data! And that's a local climatology.
It's measured right where you're working or... or studying, and... and that's important because we
know weather can really vary over short... short spaces. And so, at those locations,
(23:38):
we've got the local average annual rainfall, how much we expect each year, but also based
on temperatures, we know the probability of frost dates and planting dates as well. So, you start to
build all of this decision-making information once you've invested in... in collecting that data for a
really long time. (Tim) Because one time we were talking about how you start talking about drought,
(24:01):
that that's changed because we are... are you talking about compared to 1934? Well,
it's pretty wet this year, you know, because we had those severe droughts. So, we have to compare
it to something, and now you got the data that you can compare it to. (Zach) Correct. And it's recent
data, too, that we're always adding to. And it's so important for things like drought. One of the
(24:24):
things I work on as a climatologist is how do we define drought? And we know drought is, uh... less
than normal precipitation, but we need to know the normal there too. And so that's one reason to
have a climatology because we can look at... at, for example, Sanborn Field, the two driest years,
2012, which everyone expects, but kind of surprisingly, 2023... (Tim) Yes! (Zach) ...at
(24:47):
Sanborn was drier! And... and that kind of context is... is really important. Now, it does get
tricky, though, and... and that we kind of look at the... the past 30 years as... as a normal,
or once we feel confident in a kind of statistical baseline to compare against, but sometimes that
normal is changing too, which makes, uh... drought assessment really tricky here. So,
(25:09):
um... long-term data though, really helped to... to tell the story with drought. (Tim) You know,
sometimes even if you go... well, we're talking about the just... just a growing season, but I
think in 2012, it was terribly dry and the very last couple days of August, we got a hurricane
remnants and we got a big inch and 8/10ths rain. Well, that kind of changes your... your monthly
(25:31):
totals a little bit. It skews them just a little bit. (Zach) Yes. (Tim) So, you... you almost need
to almost look at by day or week or something. (Zach) Yeah! No, you're absolutely right. And the
Mesonet gives us kind of more... I've mentioned, localized information, but often times better,
uh... resolution information for getting rainfall and other things. And so, a lot of times most of
(25:51):
our rainfall and... and snowfall data when you see it on the news, for example, is coming from a
rain gauge observer. Maybe it's a National Weather Service or a volunteer observer, um... but these
are usually going to be once a day, just rainfall totals, or they will report snowfall too. That's
a lot different than what the Mesonet can show. We can show five minute rainfall data and look at
(26:15):
things like the intensity of the rainfall, um... and then look at the month as a total for example.
It's... did this rain come an inch a week? Kind of how we would want it, or did it stack up as
well? Those are all reasons you want to keep a... as high quality of a record of the data as you
can. (Tim) I know I look at yours all the time because I look at about four of them in this area
(26:38):
just to try to see how, you know, how scattered is... is the rain and... and such. And sometimes
when I... a big front's coming, I'll look at some of the ones that's... that's already passed. Like
what do they get at Linneus? You know, for example. (Zach) Absolutely. (Tim) Because
it's coming this way. So I'll look, or... or at Marshall or someplace and, oh! They only
(26:58):
got a half inch. That means I'm not going to... this... this is moving so fast. I'm not going to
get much. (Zach) Yeah, and that real time's great for that. And you can also see if a front's coming
through, how cold is it getting behind there? And for severe weather, unfortunately, we often pick
up a lot of wind gusts that... that go into, you know, a severe storm local report if we get a 50
or 60 mph gust, too. So, really capture quite a bit of information. (Tim) Well, we've used your
(27:22):
data for... for insurance claims. (Zach) Yes. (Tim) To say, "It did get to 60 miles an hour.
Here it is." (Zach) Yes! (Tim) So that, that helps, too. (Zach) That's what they're designed
to... to measure, but um... they do unfortunately get impacted by severe weather. And over the past,
we've also seen hail, you know, hit the weather stations and cause repairs, and even tornadoes as
well. (Tim) So, you're going to be monitoring soil moisture then? (Zach) Yeah, so that's kind of the
(27:47):
next variable. So in the past, the Mesonets, at a few stations, set up some projects to measure
soil moisture, but only at some shallow depths and for a few locations. With this MoHIC project,
so the Mesonet and... and John and his team are looking at installing soil moisture sensors
at about half of the stations across the state. Really, a lot of us have been making an evaluation
(28:10):
of which stations. Some of the locations because of the topography in the site or maybe the soil's
been disturbed, it's just not a good site for soil moisture monitoring. And then in some
locations like Boone County, we might have some redundancies, so pick it just a couple spots. Um,
but it should be about half. And in fact, that's already started. So, um... DNR is really leading
(28:31):
the charge on digging and installing the... the sensors. And so, the first installation was
this fall at South Farm. And, uh, these sensors are, uh... 15-inch soil moisture probes. And so,
you would see two metal probes, and they go, uh... horizontally into the side of a... a soil profile.
And so, these are being buried at 2, 4, and 8 inch depths, which uh... are really important near
(28:55):
the... the surface for... (Tim) Right. Right. (Zach) ...soil temperatures and... and some
shallow root zone moisture, but also down to 20 and 40 inch depths where we're going to see a lot
more slower response to moisture, um... there as well. And so, um... that'll be soil moisture and
temperature data at all of those depths, um... in real time as well. So, um... by next season,
(29:16):
we... we really expect a lot of these data to be available, and... and also some tools we're
building on top of the soil moisture as well. (Tim) You'll have a... a grass crop or something
grown on top of it that'll suck the water out? (Zach) So, yeah. These will... all these will
not be under bare soil. So these will all be buried under sod. And so, that will be important
to consider and that this is going to reflect the soil moisture responding to the weather if
(29:40):
we just kind of let it be under sod and... and mow occasionally. So this isn't going to take
into account, um... management, like you would in a crop field of the soil moisture, or plant
water use of something that uses a little bit more water than sod, like if you had corn or soybeans.
So there will be some kind of communication and learning how to use that soil moisture, uh...
(30:02):
for crop management as well. But I think it'll be very important data. (Tim) Oh, it will! Because we
can see... what I'm interested in is how much our deeper profile get... gets depleted. (Zach) Yes!
And, um... I think that's a very relevant question to right now where we've been in a drought,
and we just received some rainfall in September. We can go outside and make a quick assessment,
(30:25):
see things have kind of greened up, and you can look at the soil and know that the top soil got
wet, but how deep did that... that rainfall infiltrate? Did we really get into the subsoil
and... and recharge the moisture? That's what these sensors can... can tell us there. And it
is fascinating to see the moisture at different depths because the top will respond pretty quickly
after a rainfall event, but you kind of get a better idea of the total water storage for
(30:51):
those deeper depths that... that take a little bit to dry out or... or moisten as well. (Tim) Well,
as we discussed last time, over the winter is... winter is when you can re... replenish some of
that subsoil moisture. (Zach) Yes. There is a... a kind of seasonal cycle of soil moisture in that,
um... by the spring we call it a moist plateau where usually on average your soil moisture is...
(31:11):
is, you've got full saturated soils from a wet spring, and then usually we see that soil moisture
decrease to a minimum in the fall just because of plant transpiration and evaporation, and then on
average we recharge the soils during the winter. And so, a lot of people think soil moisture and
growing season conditions, but then we're... we're looking down into the winter, and we'll... we
(31:32):
will have the data to watch, you know, how... how much is that soil moisture recharging? Are... are
we getting over these winter months rainfall into the deeper layers? And that can be tricky because,
in Missouri on average, we don't get, you know, a deep frost depth and... and see these frozen soils
for a long time. But we do see periods where we'll get cold and... and then have rainfall on frozen
(31:54):
soils where it may not infiltrate and being able to monitor that as well. (Tim) But a snowfall,
since it melts slowly often, it soaks in lot... a lot, doesn't it? (Zach) Yeah, it depends. It
can be. It depends all on the antecedent soil temperature. If you've kind of been warm and
you get a big snowfall, um... that's great for soil moisture because the soil's kind of melting
(32:18):
a lot of that snowfall... (Tim) Right. (Zach) ...from, uh... the ground on top of whatever
the sun's doing, too. And so that soaks in really nice. I would say though, what we had last winter,
without having a ton of measurements, uh... wasn't an ideal situation because we got into, you know,
our January polar vortex and really cold for a couple weeks, and that did freeze the soils.
(32:39):
And then we got some of those snowfall events, and they just stuck around for a couple weeks because
of the cold. And I would say in that situation, really you lost most of your moisture kind of
slowly evaporating each day instead of making it into the soil. But, you know, these are pretty
complex things too that we'll be able to monitor now having those temperature and moisture probes
(33:00):
at different depths. So, it's going to give us a lot more insight, um... during different parts of
the season. (Tim) You know, I'll never forget. We were having a dry summer, and I went up to a
field day in northwest Missouri, and they'd been having a dry summer, but I kept noticing that
their crops looked a lot worse than ours. So I got their field day book and realized they had had
(33:21):
two years of drought. They had not replenished their soil... subsoil moisture, so... so they were
really hurting. (Zach) Yes. (Tim) So... so that can... we can kind of judge that too is how bad
are we really... really, uh... deficit. (Zach) Absolutely. So that's going to be very relevant
for Missouri because another thing we then look at in the spring is... okay, usually the top soil
(33:45):
moisture is going to be there in March and April as long as we're having a normal Missouri spring,
but coming off of drought years, and in... in this case, coming off of multiple drought years
for a lot of our... our state, um... how's that deep moisture? (Tim) Yes. (Zach) Uh... because
that takes a longer time to recharge, and you really need a wetter pattern at that point.
That's important because you might not need it immediately in April and May, but if you get dry,
(34:08):
you're only going to go into drought quicker if you don't have some of that deeper moisture. And
so, um... that'll be another critical time of year where we'll be using that soil moisture. And then,
of course, once you get into the season, just how is it responding to temperatures and,
um... precipitation as well. (Tim) So is the one at South Farm up that we can actually see
(34:29):
it? (Zach) We have the sensors installed. The data are not up right now. (Tim) Ok. (Zach) So
currently, um... we're kind of calibrating the sensors, also waiting on... on some of the soil
to settle too. (Tim) Sure. (Zach) So, the way these are, it's really an interesting process,
but it takes a long time to install, but they'll dig down, um... into the pit and very carefully
remove the soil in the order of the profile. Um... then once the... the probes are installed, they
(34:54):
really backfill and tamp down that soil as in the right order as much as they can. Um... but then
we want to kind of wait and wait on some rainfall events to... to see how the data is looking. By
next spring, we should have the... the soil moisture at these stations available. Um... but also as
a part of the MoHIC project, uh... the climate center is also working with MoRAP, the Missouri
(35:16):
Resources Assessment Partnership on campus, and we're looking to make, uh... high resolution soil
moisture map. Even with, uh... soil moisture at these Mesonet stations, uh... there's still lots
of parts of the state that aren't going to have the... these data available to them. How can we
use what's available as far as the soil moisture measurements, um... but then also look at some
(35:37):
other data sets too? And so, uh... MoRAP has a lot of experience with, uh... geospatial modeling,
and so we're kind of looking at machine learning to use mixture of climate data, so knowing our
rainfall and temperatures, but also combining that with the soil characteristics too, um... to try
and model soil moisture. And so, um... the end goal of the project is that, um... by the end
(36:00):
of next summer, we'll have 250 meter resolution maps that show a grid of the soil moisture and
soil temperature across the state, and these would update daily. And we're really excited for those
too because it may not, you know, it's a model, so it may not perfectly get at that soil moisture,
um... but we are going to have some of the... the radar precipitation, and hopefully it can kind of
(36:22):
dive into the local variations of soil moisture there. So, that's another output of the project
that we're excited about. (Tim) That's great. Yeah, we can better anticipate what kind of
conditions that we're going to have now, don't... don't we? (Zach) Yes. (Tim) With this. Um... back
on your Mesonet, you know, I... I use it a lot, and... and one thing I see is evapotranspiration.
(36:46):
Can you explain to our listeners what that is? (Zach) Yes! Evapotranspiration is, um... the
combined movement of water from the land surface to the atmosphere through, uh... evaporation
but also transpiration, which is plant water movement. So where plants are taking up water,
um... from under the soil and... and moving it into the plant and out through their stomata.
(37:06):
And so evapotranspiration is basically how much water is moving from the ground to the atmosphere.
The Mesonet, we calculate it hourly and come up with a... a sum for the day. And so usually in a
hot summer day like today when we're recording, or a hot fall day, um... we might see up to two
tenths of an inch of evapotranspiration, and that basically means, uh... you've lost the equivalent
(37:30):
of a 0.2 inch rainfall event from your soil in water that day. (Tim) So that's more than an inch
a week?! (Zach) Yes. And in fact, that's really important during the summer. (Tim) Yes! (Zach) So,
um... (Tim) Cuz I've seen .35s before in the summer. (Zach) Yes. And, uh... the higher the
temperatures, the... the sunnier the conditions, that's when you're going to have the highest
evapotranspiration. And we can have very high rates during the summer, particularly during
(37:54):
drought, but a lot of times, it's really useful to have that evapotranspiration as a water balance
model because, our rule of thumb just from taking the monthly average rainfall is, on average,
we get about 1 inch a week of precipitation in the summer for rainfall anywhere across
the state. (Tim) Which is a deficit! (Zach) Yes! Exactly. And so if you're a farmer,
(38:15):
you need to know that that one inch on average is, you're losing water each week even if you get an
inch of rainfall. That gives you a better picture of where you're at from a water balance as far as
dryness and wetness there. And so, that's why we provide the evapotranspiration, um... data,
that to... to do the calculation, we have, uh... incoming solar radiation that we monitor with the
(38:37):
pyrometer, um... but then we have winds, humidity and temperature as well and... and are able to...
to estimate it with those calculations. (Tim) Yeah, I always look at those and get depressed
sometimes. I think, eww, we are losing! But... but, so we... that really tells us in the winter,
that's when we're going to build our soil moisture up. (Zach) Yes. And... and, um... yeah,
because you definitely don't lose much moisture at all, um... (Tim) Right. (Zach) ...compared
(39:01):
to the summer because you lose almost all of the vegetative component except for maybe some... some
tree species, um... and then evaporation is just so much lower during the winter months. So it's
kind of a bonus period where you can put a lot of rainfall and not worry about it being quickly,
um... removed and gone back to the atmosphere. (Tim) Oh, wow. So I think this... this helps
you really, really see where your... your balance is. And I also noticed on the Mesonet,
(39:25):
you do the feel like temperature. (Zach) Yes. Yeah. (Tim) That made me feel really, really
hot a few times. No wonder I feel so hot! (Zach) Yes. And... and that's a combination of the... the
humidity and temperature there, um... but it gives us a better idea of... of what the temperatures
actually are... are like outside. I think the past two or three years here in Missouri,
we've had a lot of heat waves that might not have been as impressive on paper from temperatures
(39:50):
where we might see 90s or upper 90s, but it was the humidity that was extremely high and creating
the more dangerous conditions. So, um... that's why we... we include that as well. (Tim) Because
our livestock producers, that's really important. (Zach) Yes. Um... they don't
want to just know temperature. (Tim) Not just for us. (Zach) Yeah. (Tim) That's not for Tim. That's
for the livestock. (Zach) Yep. Animals get... get uncomfortable too, and so they're looking at that.
(40:11):
A lot of factors, but the... the cattle definitely want to cool down at night too, and if we have
really high humidity in those muggy nights, that's not helpful. Um... but they also watch for, you
know, amount of sunlight, so how much the cattle are outside and, uh... winds too. The winds can
help kind of... the cattle sweat and remove some of that heat. (Tim) You know, we got to close up
(40:32):
here in just a minute, but you... you mentioned nighttime temperatures. Those are going up,
aren't they? (Zach) Yes. Um... (Tim) Our daytime really aren't. (Zach) Yeah, it's been interesting.
And... and the... our minimum temperatures are rising quite a bit. I get asked a lot, "What's
Missouri's, uh... temperature trend?" And really over the past 40 years, but over... over the whole
(40:52):
record we are seeing rising temperatures, but in Missouri, it doesn't tell the whole story.
You really have to break it down by season and then high and low temperatures. And basically,
our coldest temperatures are getting warmer. Our warmest temperatures are staying the same or...
or getting cooler. And so that means, we're seeing more warming during the winter months,
(41:14):
um... but also more warming with those overnight low temperatures. And so... (Tim) Being
higher. (Zach) Being higher as well. So... (Tim) In the summer? (Zach) In the summer. And so,
in... in the summer, our high temperatures are actually decreasing over the past 30 years where
minimum temperatures are increasing, um... and... and quite a bit more. So about two degrees, uh...
(41:34):
per century over the past 30 years for the minimum temperatures. And so, it kind of changes the flavor
of summer heat though. Um... we're still getting heat waves, but all of our all-time temperature
records that we set during the 30s and 50s, 100 to 110 or... we're not seeing that as much,
but instead, we're still getting these heat waves with a lot of humidity, but then not cooling down
(41:57):
at night. So you might have a night where the low is 80. (Tim) Right! (Zach) And that can be just
as bad for... for human and animal... (Tim) And plants! (Zach) Yeah. Plants don't like that either
as well. So that's an important trend to know because, uh... if we just say temperatures are
warmer, that doesn't tell the whole story. It's... it's these nighttime temperatures. (Zach) And
that's the beautiful thing about your Mesonet is that you can measure all of those. (Zach) Correct.
(42:20):
Yes. (Tim) And it's going to be different in the Bootheel versus northwest Missouri. They're
different climates. (Zach) Absolutely. Um... and we do see that. And we have really what we call
six climate divisions across Missouri, ranging from the Bootheel to the Northwest Prairie, as we
call it. But um... very diverse state climatically but also geographically too. (Tim) And probably
(42:40):
the Ozarks are a whole animal themselves. (Zach) Yes. Yep. And... and they kind of have their own
weird temperature records too because of the topography as well. So you see some,
some funny things. (Tim) Sometimes they're cold! (Zach) Yes. Exactly. (Tim) Yeah. All right,
Zach. We can talk about the weather all the time. This is... this is so much fun. But,
uh... thanks so much for coming out, and this is it for Tim's Take. (Zach) Thanks, Tim.
(43:02):
[♫]
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