Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Bit of a change of pace though right now, because
we know that Northern Australia, it's being reported, is increasingly
becoming a potential threat to Beijing. Well that is what
a former deputy ambassador to China has expressed when saying
that he's concerned as well that Southerners were naive to
the scale of US military build up across the top
(00:21):
end now. According to a report in The Northern Territory
News earlier this week, the cautionary words from John Lander
came after the Defense Industry Minister Pat Conroy announced the
government would be splashing seven billion dollars to acquire medium
and long term ranged missiles for the Royal Australian Navy.
Now joining us on the line is doctor John con
(00:42):
the director of National Security Programs at the Australian Strategic
Policy Units. Good morning to you.
Speaker 2 (00:48):
John, morning Katie.
Speaker 1 (00:50):
Lovely to have you on the show now, doctor coin
It was reported that during the visit to Washington, DC
last week that mister Conroy said the standard Missile two
block and Standard Missiles six would be added to the
Navy's arsenal of weapons. I mean, the greatest arms race
in our region since nineteen forty five. What do you
(01:12):
make of the comments? And I mean, where are we
at here in the Northern territory.
Speaker 2 (01:18):
Look, you know what, there's always that great saying, you know,
carry on and keep calm. So you know, right from
the start, what we can say is that we've entered
a period of real strategic uncertainty. We're seeing this massive
amount of competition between China and the US. We can
(01:39):
no longer talk about a post war Europe. You know,
the war in Ukraine is raging. People are dying every day.
We've seen conflict in the Middle East. We see the
Hoofies are a terrorist group attacking shipping. So we are
that layered with climate change and layered with economic uncer
(02:00):
think we've entered a period of time where there's great
strategic uncertainty. So that's the first thing. So in great
periods of strategic uncertainty, all of a sudden, the insurance
policy of building defense capability, the time frame for that
becomes much shorter and it becomes a higher priority. So,
you know, the Defense Strategic Review said, for the first
(02:22):
time since the nineteen eighties, we've probably entered a period
of less than ten years warning time of a major conflict.
But I want to be careful of this, which is
I'm not saying that a major conflict is inevitable, certain
or not avoidable. What I'm saying, though, is it does
mean that government has to take it's the threat of
conflict more seriously and.
Speaker 1 (02:44):
As such, I'm assuming has to make sure that we
have got everything that we need.
Speaker 2 (02:48):
Look absolutely, but also you know, this is about national
resilience as much as it it's about weapon systems, so
you know that there's a lot of challenges for government
in this space. I do think that any statement in
relation to Northern Australia going, you know, because of the
increased US presence, Australia is a greater target for Beijing
(03:11):
is mischievous and misleading. First off, it really makes a
statement that it makes an assumption that Australia wasn't that already. Secondly,
it says if we only toe the line, you know
what will happen is is Beijing will leave us alone.
But in fact, China that's turning around as saying you
must choose between your greatest trading partner and your longest
(03:34):
term strategic security partner. It's not the US saying that.
Speaker 1 (03:40):
So do you think that our relationship with the US
and our build up, you know, of US military here
in Northern Australia, does it make us a greater thread
or does it mean that we're more prepared should something rise.
Speaker 2 (03:55):
Look, I think it makes us more prepared. I also
think we need to put the US presidence in context.
So you know, you're being tricky if you turn around
and say this massive build up. You know, the Marines,
it took ten years to get to a six month
rotation of marine to come in, do training every for
a six month period and then leave. They are an
(04:18):
integral part of the community. They spend money and certainly
the relationships. So you remember when the osprays went down
and those deaths and how the Northern Territory community responded
to that in support of the Marines. You know, I
think this categorization that that's a massive build up. There's
no doubt that there's a greater presence in a raft
(04:40):
based hindle and money is being spent on the facilities.
But we're not talking here about you know, there's a
huge difference between comparing se Guam, where a large portion
of US capability is based, and what we're talking about
in northern Australia.
Speaker 1 (04:56):
We now, according to the report as well, mister Landro
had said there's he had reservations about the US presence
in Australia, the former deputy ambassador, maintaining that the top
end was being weaponized by Washington d C in favor
of America's interests. And also you know that it was
sort of happening with other parts of Australia, maybe not
(05:17):
even realizing or being too busy or pre consumed with
other things to realize. What do you make of those comments?
Speaker 2 (05:24):
Look, I think the issue here is is and let's
for a moment consider this through through a slightly different lens.
Speaker 3 (05:34):
Beijing, our greatest.
Speaker 2 (05:35):
Trading partner, put a number of trade barriers against our coal,
against our lobsters, against our wine, against our Barali, and
it said do what we want you to do or
you won't trade with US. Okay, So now that's not
good faith acting, you know. And if you shrink, you know,
(05:57):
anyone in relation to bullying tac if you shrink and
a peas you really do, run the risk that you'll
be of in a weaker position next time that that occurs.
And I'm not saying this is about conflict. We have
a long term, long term strategic relationship with the US
(06:20):
and so you know they're a natural partner of ours
where we collaborate and cooperate across a range of areas.
But we also compete with them too economically for markets.
So you know, for bodd time someone gets up and
says ase sorts of absolute things, you know that I'm
not convinced that that's in the best interest of good
public debate and good public policy discourse. Okay, it is
(06:43):
an incredibly complex environment. Australia wants to continue to trade coal,
iron or lobsters wine with China, but it also wants
to maintain its relationship in terms of security and cooperation
with the US. And certainly we shouldn't underplay the two
way trade balance between Australia and the US.
Speaker 1 (07:03):
I think they're very very good points, John, How do
you think things? I mean, I'm not asking you to
predict the US election on the weekend, but how do
you reckon the outcome of the election on the weekend
or could it, you know, in any way change our
relationship with the US or the build up that we
are seeing a US military in the top end.
Speaker 2 (07:25):
Look you know what the first thing is is predicting the.
Speaker 3 (07:27):
Future is always a bit of a mark game.
Speaker 1 (07:31):
You know.
Speaker 4 (07:31):
I spent a lot of time talking about this in
terms of I don't have a crystal ball on my desk.
I have a magic eight ball that I sometimes like
to ask questions and shake up and down. It doesn't
always give me honest answers, and sometimes it's just too
early to tell that before elections.
Speaker 1 (07:45):
Every time there's an election, John.
Speaker 3 (07:48):
But look, I think for those listening, okay, we know
that if we see a Harris win, we like to
see a continuation of the current strategy. Okay, if we
see a Trump win, and you know, admittedly President Trump
does suffer from a random thoughts while shaving in the
(08:10):
morning and making sudden decisions. But that said, he has
a great deal of continuity here, so if you're looking
at it, he's been very clear he doesn't want Europe
to be a free loader, so he wants to resolve
the war in Ukraine somehow, so he doesn't want to
be there. Similarly, in the Middle East, he doesn't want
to be entrenched in an ongoing Middle East conflicts. That said,
(08:34):
he is also extremely clear about his commitment to the
Indo Pacific and competition between the US and China. So
that was a very long way to get to the
short end for which his continuity seems to be likely
in terms of US presidency in Northern Australia.
Speaker 1 (08:52):
Well, we'll all be keeping a bit of an eye
on thing, so I'm sure, John Coin. I always appreciate
your time, always enjoy a chat with you. Thank you
so much for joining me this morning.
Speaker 2 (09:01):
Thank Cattie, thank you.
Speaker 1 (09:02):
Talk soon.
Bit of a change of pace though right now, because
we know that Northern Australia, it's being reported, is increasingly
becoming a potential threat to Beijing. Well that is what
a former deputy ambassador to China has expressed when saying
that he's concerned as well that Southerners were naive to
the scale of US military build up across the top
(00:21):
end now. According to a report in The Northern Territory
News earlier this week, the cautionary words from John Lander
came after the Defense Industry Minister Pat Conroy announced the
government would be splashing seven billion dollars to acquire medium
and long term ranged missiles for the Royal Australian Navy.
Now joining us on the line is doctor John con
(00:42):
the director of National Security Programs at the Australian Strategic
Policy Units. Good morning to you.
Speaker 2 (00:48):
John, morning Katie.
Speaker 1 (00:50):
Lovely to have you on the show now, doctor coin
It was reported that during the visit to Washington, DC
last week that mister Conroy said the standard Missile two
block and Standard Missiles six would be added to the
Navy's arsenal of weapons. I mean, the greatest arms race
in our region since nineteen forty five. What do you
(01:12):
make of the comments? And I mean, where are we
at here in the Northern territory.
Speaker 2 (01:18):
Look, you know what, there's always that great saying, you know,
carry on and keep calm. So you know, right from
the start, what we can say is that we've entered
a period of real strategic uncertainty. We're seeing this massive
amount of competition between China and the US. We can
(01:39):
no longer talk about a post war Europe. You know,
the war in Ukraine is raging. People are dying every day.
We've seen conflict in the Middle East. We see the
Hoofies are a terrorist group attacking shipping. So we are
that layered with climate change and layered with economic uncer
(02:00):
think we've entered a period of time where there's great
strategic uncertainty. So that's the first thing. So in great
periods of strategic uncertainty, all of a sudden, the insurance
policy of building defense capability, the time frame for that
becomes much shorter and it becomes a higher priority. So,
you know, the Defense Strategic Review said, for the first
(02:22):
time since the nineteen eighties, we've probably entered a period
of less than ten years warning time of a major conflict.
But I want to be careful of this, which is
I'm not saying that a major conflict is inevitable, certain
or not avoidable. What I'm saying, though, is it does
mean that government has to take it's the threat of
conflict more seriously and.
Speaker 1 (02:44):
As such, I'm assuming has to make sure that we
have got everything that we need.
Speaker 2 (02:48):
Look absolutely, but also you know, this is about national
resilience as much as it it's about weapon systems, so
you know that there's a lot of challenges for government
in this space. I do think that any statement in
relation to Northern Australia going, you know, because of the
increased US presence, Australia is a greater target for Beijing
(03:11):
is mischievous and misleading. First off, it really makes a
statement that it makes an assumption that Australia wasn't that already. Secondly,
it says if we only toe the line, you know
what will happen is is Beijing will leave us alone.
But in fact, China that's turning around as saying you
must choose between your greatest trading partner and your longest
(03:34):
term strategic security partner. It's not the US saying that.
Speaker 1 (03:40):
So do you think that our relationship with the US
and our build up, you know, of US military here
in Northern Australia, does it make us a greater thread
or does it mean that we're more prepared should something rise.
Speaker 2 (03:55):
Look, I think it makes us more prepared. I also
think we need to put the US presidence in context.
So you know, you're being tricky if you turn around
and say this massive build up. You know, the Marines,
it took ten years to get to a six month
rotation of marine to come in, do training every for
a six month period and then leave. They are an
(04:18):
integral part of the community. They spend money and certainly
the relationships. So you remember when the osprays went down
and those deaths and how the Northern Territory community responded
to that in support of the Marines. You know, I
think this categorization that that's a massive build up. There's
no doubt that there's a greater presence in a raft
(04:40):
based hindle and money is being spent on the facilities.
But we're not talking here about you know, there's a
huge difference between comparing se Guam, where a large portion
of US capability is based, and what we're talking about
in northern Australia.
Speaker 1 (04:56):
We now, according to the report as well, mister Landro
had said there's he had reservations about the US presence
in Australia, the former deputy ambassador, maintaining that the top
end was being weaponized by Washington d C in favor
of America's interests. And also you know that it was
sort of happening with other parts of Australia, maybe not
(05:17):
even realizing or being too busy or pre consumed with
other things to realize. What do you make of those comments?
Speaker 2 (05:24):
Look, I think the issue here is is and let's
for a moment consider this through through a slightly different lens.
Speaker 3 (05:34):
Beijing, our greatest.
Speaker 2 (05:35):
Trading partner, put a number of trade barriers against our coal,
against our lobsters, against our wine, against our Barali, and
it said do what we want you to do or
you won't trade with US. Okay, So now that's not
good faith acting, you know. And if you shrink, you know,
(05:57):
anyone in relation to bullying tac if you shrink and
a peas you really do, run the risk that you'll
be of in a weaker position next time that that occurs.
And I'm not saying this is about conflict. We have
a long term, long term strategic relationship with the US
(06:20):
and so you know they're a natural partner of ours
where we collaborate and cooperate across a range of areas.
But we also compete with them too economically for markets.
So you know, for bodd time someone gets up and
says ase sorts of absolute things, you know that I'm
not convinced that that's in the best interest of good
public debate and good public policy discourse. Okay, it is
(06:43):
an incredibly complex environment. Australia wants to continue to trade coal,
iron or lobsters wine with China, but it also wants
to maintain its relationship in terms of security and cooperation
with the US. And certainly we shouldn't underplay the two
way trade balance between Australia and the US.
Speaker 1 (07:03):
I think they're very very good points, John, How do
you think things? I mean, I'm not asking you to
predict the US election on the weekend, but how do
you reckon the outcome of the election on the weekend
or could it, you know, in any way change our
relationship with the US or the build up that we
are seeing a US military in the top end.
Speaker 2 (07:25):
Look you know what the first thing is is predicting the.
Speaker 3 (07:27):
Future is always a bit of a mark game.
Speaker 1 (07:31):
You know.
Speaker 4 (07:31):
I spent a lot of time talking about this in
terms of I don't have a crystal ball on my desk.
I have a magic eight ball that I sometimes like
to ask questions and shake up and down. It doesn't
always give me honest answers, and sometimes it's just too
early to tell that before elections.
Speaker 1 (07:45):
Every time there's an election, John.
Speaker 3 (07:48):
But look, I think for those listening, okay, we know
that if we see a Harris win, we like to
see a continuation of the current strategy. Okay, if we
see a Trump win, and you know, admittedly President Trump
does suffer from a random thoughts while shaving in the
(08:10):
morning and making sudden decisions. But that said, he has
a great deal of continuity here, so if you're looking
at it, he's been very clear he doesn't want Europe
to be a free loader, so he wants to resolve
the war in Ukraine somehow, so he doesn't want to
be there. Similarly, in the Middle East, he doesn't want
to be entrenched in an ongoing Middle East conflicts. That said,
(08:34):
he is also extremely clear about his commitment to the
Indo Pacific and competition between the US and China. So
that was a very long way to get to the
short end for which his continuity seems to be likely
in terms of US presidency in Northern Australia.
Speaker 1 (08:52):
Well, we'll all be keeping a bit of an eye
on thing, so I'm sure, John Coin. I always appreciate
your time, always enjoy a chat with you. Thank you
so much for joining me this morning.
Speaker 2 (09:01):
Thank Cattie, thank you.
Speaker 1 (09:02):
Talk soon.
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