Market Matters from New York Life Investments

This week on the podcast, Lauren Goodwin, Julia Hermann, and Michael LoGalbo launch their new economic outlook series: Macro Pulse. Tune in for their updated views on the global macro cycle themes impacting asset allocation.

The U.S.-China tech relationship has risen to the top of many investors’ geopolitical concerns. From TikTok to chip production, the past few weeks have seen several developments in this relationship, carrying both risks and opportunities. Tune in as Lauren Goodwin and Julia Hermann unpack this long-term market force. 

New data on immigration into the U.S. has sparked new discussions among economists. Is it the missing link to explain strong economic growth? Lauren Goodwin and Julia Hermann discuss what they learned – and what they didn’t – from the recent figures.  

The Bank of Japan’s historic decision to end its Negative Interest Rate Policy has far-reaching implications for global investors. Lauren Goodwin and Julia Hermann discuss the shifts in Japan’s economy that allowed for this policy adjustment, and what it means for government bond demand and the long-term path of global interest rates. 

2 months of slightly-too-hot inflation. A Fed meeting this week. A market eager for interest rate cuts. Lauren Goodwin and Julia Hermann are standing by their base case and sharing updated scenarios for prices ahead.  

The dollar’s up – but what does a strong dollar really mean for investors? Julia Hermann and Michael LoGalbo navigate the maze of recent short-term dollar movements and how this can translate into an international investing approach.  

This week, Super Tuesday marks a major point of progress in the 2024 U.S. president election. As candidates’ policies firm up, Lauren Goodwin and Julia Hermann give investors a guide to what’s still outstanding in the primaries, key policies on the table, and how to spot policy-based opportunities.  

The market’s late cycle jitters have been assuaged by the persistent AI trend, with a single company in the forefront. Lauren Goodwin and Julia Hermann dissect this year’s equity market leadership, and what investors can do when opportunities feel concentrated. 

China’s economic woes have been in the news lately, but investors’ picture is more dynamic: should we focus more on the risks of China’s old economic model, or the opportunities of its new one? Valentina Chen, co-head and portfolio manager of MacKay Shields’ emerging markets debt team, joins the podcast to share her perspective. 

Forecasts of short-term rates driven by Fed policy have been ever changing, but after the recent inflation print, it seems as though Fed Funds may have peaked. Investors looking to capture yields before they move lower may be able to do so through the bond market. Host Lauren Goodwin is joined by Thomas Musmanno and John Lawlor of MacKay Shields to discuss opportunities in short duration. 

Even with inflation and the jobs market both running hot, many investors are convinced of an imminent cut in interest rates. Lauren Goodwin and Julia Hermann discuss how the Fed’s shift in tone has contributed to this renewed investor debate. 

While the coming year is full of uncertainty, we’ve observed that much of the financial community is hugging consensus views around inflation, interest rates, and the likelihood of recession. In this episode, we discuss another three “black swan” risks that have the potential to disrupt investor consensus.

While the coming year is full of uncertainty, we’ve observed that much of the financial community is hugging consensus views around inflation, interest rates, and the likelihood of recession. In this episode, we discuss three “black swan” risks that have the potential to disrupt investor consensus.

New year, new views. Lauren Goodwin and Julia Hermann kick off their 2024 podcasting adventures with the key questions they see driving investment outcomes in the coming months. 

‘Twas NYLIM before Christmas… curl up by the fire for the final episode of Market Matters in 2023. Julia Hermann shares her ode to the markets. 

As 2023 draws to a close, the market has enjoyed some relief from the steady rise in interest rates. Lauren Goodwin and Julia Hermann look into why yields have been declining, and what investors can expect for 2024. 

In our 2024 Outlook, choose your own adventure. Lauren Goodwin, Julia Hermann, and Michael LoGalbo explore scenarios for 2024 along with the actionable investment ideas that can help investors navigate the coming year confidently, no matter where they end up on the map. 

The themes pervading 2024 investment outlooks – Fed tightening, chance of recession, and market volatility – are little changed from the start of the year. But much in the economy has shifted. Lauren Goodwin, Julia Hermann, and Michael LoGalbo cover the signposts for their base case view of 2024. 

The fates of the U.S. corporate sector and labor market are closely entwined, and in this cycle, labor hoarding by large companies has contributed to strong job creation and wage growth. As cost pressures mount for companies, though, can this dyamic continue? Tune in to the debate between Lauren Goodwin and Julia Hermann this week on the Market Matters podcast.