April 8, 2026 • 42 mins
A ceasefire in Iran gets announced, but the harder question lands: what if the side that took the most bombing still holds the real leverage? We dig into the Iran ceasefire through the one geographic fact no press conference can rewrite: the Strait of Hormuz. When a chokepoint can function like a toll booth for global shipping, “mission accomplished” starts to sound like marketing, not strategy.
I’m joined by retired British Army officer and former NATO deputy supreme allied commander General Richard Shirreff to unpack why military damage does not automatically translate into diplomatic advantage.
Then we bring it down to the ground in Dubai with luxury property CEO Imran Sheikh of BlackOak Global. He explains what he’s actually seeing in the Dubai real estate market, why pricing has not collapsed, how “rebalancing” shows up in the secondary market, and what developer incentives and payment-plan changes signal about confidence. If you care about Gulf stability, global trade routes, oil transit risk, or Dubai property investment, this conversation connects the dots.
Subscribe to Backstory, share this with someone following the region, and leave a review. After you listen, do you think this ceasefire has long legs or is it only a pause?
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SPEAKER_01 (00:00):
They've been subjected to an industrial-scale
aerial assault by the Americansand by the Israelis.
But at the end of this process,who's coming out stronger?
Probably, probably the Iranianregime.
SPEAKER_02 (00:12):
So I think it's very short-lived.
People have a very, veryshort-term memory of things like
this, however drastic it may be.
Um, I think people will forget.
Post-summer, you know, give it amonth, two months, three months,
people forget.
Um, you know, this market hasbeen strong and has been a
number one tourist destinationfor for a lot of uh cities
around the world.
SPEAKER_00 (00:34):
Hi everyone, and welcome to another edition of
Backstory.
I'm Dana Lewis.
Ceasefire with Iran.
What was the point of this warin the first place?
Well, now the preconditions Iranhas set for the ceasefire
negotiations seem daunting.
No American troops in the MiddleEast.
Iran controls the Strait ofHormuz.
What about the nuclear programand ballistic missiles and
(00:55):
regime change?
The Americans and Israelis willhave to polish this up to claim
victory.
I speak to General RichardSheriff, a former NATO
commander.
And what happens now to Gulfnations like the United Arab
Emirates, which have borne thebrunt of nightly drone and
missile attacks by Iran?
The property market, which isthe bread and butter economy
(01:17):
along with tourism in Dubai, hastaken a body blow.
Those are my words.
But CEO of Black Oak luxuryproperty agency Imran Sheikh
gives us his take on a marketthat he thinks is more resilient
than you may think.
General Richard Sheriff is aretired senior British Army
(01:39):
officer, and he is an author,and he has also served as the
deputy supreme allied commanderin Europe, which is a NATO
position general, correct?
Correct.
Yep.
Look, it's very timely to haveyou on, and hopefully this
doesn't get dated too quicklybecause things are moving pretty
rapidly.
But as you know, uh PresidentTrump has announced a ceasefire
(02:01):
with Iran.
I'm not sure who's agreeing tocease and who's still going to
be firing, but let's see how itplays out.
Um they'll they're they're gonnacall this, of course, anything
that uh Trump is behind as aterrific, fantastic, uh, you
know, best agreement uh ever.
What's your take on it so far?
SPEAKER_01 (02:21):
My take is that this last, well, it is how long it's
lasted since the war started,has been a masterclass in utter
futility.
Um I I the fact is that Trumphas accepted uh uh the Iranian
10 points, 10-point proposal asa workable basis on which to
negotiate.
(02:42):
And I can't see how he's goingto end up in a better position
than he was before he launchedthis attack.
SPEAKER_00 (02:52):
So he let's just build on that.
He says, first of all, that um,and also the vice president J.D.
Vance was speaking uh in Hungarythis morning, uh, throwing his
weight behind Viktor Orban,which is a completely different
subject, but uh notable, that uhthat Iran um that that America
(03:12):
has accomplished all of itsmilitary targets in Iran.
SPEAKER_01 (03:18):
Uh do you would you agree with that?
Yeah, that that might be thecase.
They might have done.
Um and they have decimatedalongside the Israelis, they
have decimated the leadership,they have destroyed large
quantities of the Iranianmilitary, they've destroyed the
navy, uh, and absolutely writtendown the Iranian military.
(03:41):
Although it has to be said thatthe Iranians continue to have
the ability to launch a lot ofdrones and and some ballistic
missiles back at at not only atIsrael but also the Gulf states.
But the fact is, that's that'salmost that's almost a side
issue.
The fact is, so long as theIranians hold the Gulf, the
Strait of Hormuz, Trump islosing.
(04:03):
And he knows that.
And I think that's why he gothis friend, Field Marshal Munir
of Pakistan, to broker thisparticular ceasefire.
And that's why he's behind it.
Um I mean the alternative we hadhis genocidal threats about
destroying a great civilizationyesterday.
(04:24):
He also knows, the penny hasfinally dropped, that there was
no military solution to openingthe Strait of Homers, that that
would not have led to a realcatastrophe for the United
States.
So what were the options?
Catastrophe followed byhumiliation, or in a sense, the
(04:44):
humiliation of a standby, astand down, and he's gone for
the latter.
SPEAKER_00 (04:49):
But according to this 10-point uh uh plan by the
Iranians or their proposal thathe says that he's, you know,
let's see how it plays out inthe next two weeks of
negotiations.
But Iran says they're gonnaremain in control of the Strait
of Hormuz along with Oman, Iguess, uh charging, you know,
upwards of two million uhdollars or euros or whatever it
(05:11):
may be on every ship that passesthrough there when this conflict
began, as as you will note andso many others, that Iran was
never in charge of the Strait ofHormuz to begin with.
How can that stand?
How can an internationalwaterway be controlled by the R
IRGC?
SPEAKER_01 (05:30):
This is my point.
That how can this be couldpossibly construed as a victory
for Trump if he has now ended upin a much worse place than he
was before he launched the war?
Now you're right.
How can it stand?
This is Iran and Amand, to befair, now planning to exercise
control as a sort of toll boothon the Strait of Hormuz, which
(05:52):
is a it's which is which is amuch worse position.
And it's gonna put shippingprices up massively.
It's gonna net a hell of a lotof money for the Iranian uh the
Iranian exchequer as well.
How do you change that?
You change the regime, younegotiate it away, or you launch
a military, some sort ofmilitary venture, which would be
ill start.
I think it's very difficult tosee how the international
(06:14):
community changes that positionuh without concessions to Iran,
about sanctions, uh, and maybeTrump has to accept a lot of
those points in the Iranian10-point plan, including, for
example, the removal of Americantroops in the Gulf.
So so I think Trump is on theback foot, and the Iranians know
(06:35):
it.
Removal of American troops inthe Gulf.
Well, that is one that is one ofthe concerns, you know, I think
a couple uh a number of thoseare the things that are.
That's on the list, certainly.
That's on the list.
Uh removal of sanctions is onthe list, cessation of
hostilities, not only againstpermanent cessation of
hostilities against Iran, butalso against Iranian allies.
So that would mean Hezbollah,presumably, which the Israelis
(06:58):
continue to hammer.
So the bottom line is that Iran,Iran now continues to hold the
vital ground, which is theStrait of Omar's, and can
negotiate from a position ofstrength.
Um, will America go back tobombing?
They might in two weeks' time.
But realistically, I think it'spretty unlikely because they
(07:19):
know, and it has demonstrated,they've however much they bomb,
they've not been able to changethat fundamental fact of
geography which the Iranians aretaking advantage of.
SPEAKER_00 (07:30):
So what kind of an agreement is this?
A ceasefire, and if if Iranremains in control of enriched
uranium, or you know, may maybeit's now buried under tons and
hundreds of tons of rubble, butit's there.
Um, and then what will the testbe, in your view, on the success
(07:52):
uh of an agreement on theirnuclear program, that they're
going to abandon that and thenany test with within that, and
sorry for the length of myquestion, but any test within
that then has to focus onverification?
SPEAKER_01 (08:06):
I mean, the answer is I I I'm I'm I don't know is
the answer.
These, you know, if you thinkthat what the JCPA took years to
negotiate, two years orsomething, they've now got two
weeks to try and negotiate thisone.
And and this is uh this is amatter for the you know for the
diplomats uh to try and gettheir heads round.
But at every stage, I thinkyou're demonstrating it with
(08:29):
these these really relevantquestions and points you're
raising, at every stage, theIranians have got the upper
hand.
Uh as long as, you know, so longas the ceasefire holds, that's
the thing.
Of course, America could go backto bombing, but is it going to
get them any further down theline?
I don't think it will.
SPEAKER_00 (08:48):
What about the ballistic missile program?
I mean, uh the Iranians haveshown, you know, that it's not
only is it muscular, that it wasresilient and they were able to
hide a lot of the launchers,continue the launch.
Um The New York Times has run uhinterviews uh quoting
intelligence sources in the U.S.
that maybe they only got 50% ofthe launchers and the drone
(09:11):
launch of uh sites, that therewere a lot of um that there were
a lot of uh sites that were fakein the first place, that the
Americans may have wasted timebombing.
It's a bit like what happened inKosovo, but um that that the
Iranians were able to rebuildwithin hours some of those silos
and launch facilities.
I mean, that that's also afailed aspect of this war, isn't
(09:34):
it?
For the Americans.
SPEAKER_01 (09:36):
Well, I I I I I I mean the figures you you you you
read out or you list are uh Imean are very compelling.
And if that is the case, it isabsolutely a failure.
And this is the point, in asense, because at every stage,
at regular points during thislast three weeks, four weeks or
so, five weeks, Trump hasproclaimed arrogantly that the
(09:57):
ballistic missile capability hasbeen obliterated.
And then what happens the nextday?
Wah, woomf, woof, woof, moremissiles come in to Israeli
cities uh or um uh Gulf states.
And it just demonstrates thatthis industrial, there's sort of
it's a typical Americanobsession with destruction and
(10:20):
listing destruction.
It almost goes back to, youknow, the body counts of the
Vietnam War.
Somehow it's it's it's reducedto an industrial process.
And it's not that simple.
It's much more complex thanthat.
And these, you know, these i ithe Iranians have been planning
for this for years.
They've known that that they'relikely to be in the firing line
uh under American missile attackand uh and bombing attack.
(10:43):
And so they've planned for it.
They've built a degree ofresilience, which I think has
demonstrated, you know, it'sbeen been demonstrated very
effectively.
And there's a sort of supremeirony here that Iranian military
capability, yes, it's beenabsolutely hammered.
They've been subjected to anindustrial-scale aerial assault
by uh by by by uh by theAmericans and by the Israelis.
(11:07):
But at the end of this process,who's coming out stronger?
Probably probably the Iranianregime.
And that is not what Trumpwanted.
That is absolutely a defeat forTrump.
Uh and, you know, as I say, Ithink this is a sort of, you
know, uh a moment where in avery real sense the American
(11:31):
position as the this you know,here is the global superpower
which has now beendiplomatically and strategically
uh bettered by uh a a theocracy,a fourth-rate theocracy,
autocracy, dictatorship,horrible regime, all the other
stuff that you can you candescribe Iran.
(11:53):
But Iran comes out stronger.
SPEAKER_00 (11:55):
General Sheriff, can you give me your take on that
regime?
Uh uh I and I know it's hard todo it because some of the faces
have changed, uh, but the IRGCremains the integral part of
that regime.
And part of Trump's campaign uhfor war was that they would uh
stop Iran from running itsproxies all over the region,
(12:17):
whether it be Hamas, Hezbollah,and d elements in Syria and on
and on.
Uh I don't think we I don'tthink the Americans have
accomplished that, have they?
SPEAKER_01 (12:29):
It's difficult to say at this rate.
I mean, the Israelis will go onhammering ha Hezbollah as we're
hearing thus far.
My take on the regime, I mean,it's a horrific regime.
It's massacred tens of thousandsof its people earlier this year
when they tried to protestagainst it.
Um, it has created mayhem,exported terrorism, and been a
(12:52):
massive thorn in theinternational side for for for
much of the 47 years it's beenin existence.
But it's clearly a regime whichis resilient, has organized
itself uh in order to cope withthe sort of attacks it has
faced, and it's like a hydra, ina sense, you cut off one head,
(13:13):
ten heads grow in its place.
Um and and the effect of bombingit.
I mean, the irony is just beforethis uh campaign was launched,
the word on the street was thatthe negotiations uh hosted by
the Amanis were actually gettingsomewhere, and the Iranians had
agreed to uh to give up thatenriched uranium.
(13:34):
What's happened now as a resultof the bombing, and funny old
thing, it always happens inhistory.
You've only got to look back inhistory.
Bombing entrenches regimes.
It entrenches and it and italmost acts as a sort of
unifying force.
And what you've got is a regime,I suspect, where, yeah, the the
(13:54):
leadership has been decimated,but the hardliners remain, uh,
and they are not going to giveup easily.
And they know exactly where theystand.
SPEAKER_00 (14:05):
Can you speak to Trump's uh you know, calling um
whether it be Prime MinisterKeir Starmer or whether it be
other European leaders, uh somesome pretty uh insulting names
and labels and essentiallylabeling NATO as cowards in this
for not coming and opening upthe Strait of Hormuz?
(14:27):
And then I see a lot of likesocial media comments from
Americans like the Europeansfailed us.
Um, you know, building on whatessentially the the US President
has said.
So why didn't Europe and NATO uhcome when they were called?
SPEAKER_01 (14:46):
Dead simple, Dana.
This is Trump's war.
It's not NATO's war.
NATO is an alliance devoted tothe defense of its members.
It is not an alliance that comeswhen with a dog whistle from
America prosecuting a hupristicwar without a strategy where
(15:08):
there was no imminent threat toAmerica.
That is not what NATO is about.
And it was absolutely right forNATO to say, your war, your
mess, you sort it out, exceptthat it's not quite that simple
because the whole internationalcommunity's got to sort it out.
It's now I can understandfrustration in America about
(15:31):
Europe, and I may say so aswell, Canada, unwillingness to
step up to the mark in defensespending.
That's a fair call.
But the fact is that that isthat NATO is not about
supporting a hubristic NATO uhAmerican attack on another
nation.
SPEAKER_00 (15:51):
Where goes NATO now?
Because you know that uhPresident Trump has said that,
you know, and and others in theUS administration uh are
questioning now the you knowNATO that they can't be counted
on and uh, you know, that NATO'sgonna pay a price later on.
By the way, while they're sayingthat, they are a member of NATO.
They're not saying that from theoutside, which people don't
(16:14):
sometimes process.
They are a key member of NATOand always have been.
SPEAKER_01 (16:20):
I think this just reinforces uh something I felt
for well, ever since really weheard Vegans and uh Vance, Vance
and Hegsif stand up at Brusselsand Munich Security Conference
at the beginning of last year,2025, making it very clear that
America was not going tounderpin European security.
That was the time NATO shouldhave started adjusting to the
(16:43):
reality that America'scommitment to Article V then was
going, it's now dead.
We have to assume that Americais no longer an ally.
Actually, America is a bully anda predator under Trump, and we
cannot trust America.
And if there's another thingthat comes out of this recent
(17:03):
saga, of course, it isabsolutely when you get the sort
of deranged posts of destroyingcivilizations that we've heard
from the the leader of of theUnited States, America under
Trump cannot in any way, shape,or form be trusted.
So what?
So America becomes, to use PrimeMinister Mark Carney's words, an
(17:28):
alliance of the middle powers,an alliance of America and
Canada.
And that is going, yes, ofcourse, there's gotta this is a
this is a rupture, absolutely arupture.
Again, to pick up uh PrimeMinister Carney's words at
Davos, it is a rupture.
But there's gotta be atransition.
There's gotta be a transitionthat says we move the alliance
(17:49):
from an alliance which dependedon the United States to an
alliance of Europe and Canadawhich can stand on its own
without dependence on the UnitedStates, while maintaining good,
strong links with the UnitedStates, because Trump and the
derangement of the White Houseis not going to go on forever,
we hope.
(18:10):
And that is the challenge now.
But NATO's got to recognize thatit's got to take responsibility,
or the Europeans and Canada havegot to take responsibility for
the allowance.
And they could do that.
We could do that.
NATO remains.
SPEAKER_00 (18:23):
That's my question.
Can you do, I mean, can that bedone without all that money from
the US?
The what uh two-thirdscontributors to NATO?
unknown (18:32):
Yeah.
SPEAKER_01 (18:32):
Well, I mean, in simple terms, Dana, it's got to
be done.
There's no there's no ifs orbuts here.
We've got to find the ways to doit.
We've got to find imaginative,innovative ways to fund the
capabilities required.
We've got to identify the gapsand fill those gaps.
And that's not going to happenover time, which is why it
without it's not going to happenshort in a quick time, which is
why you need that transition andwhy we've got to continue to
(18:55):
maintain.
We need a proper plan withAmerica, effectively, uh a
withdrawal plan.
I mean, you wouldn't launch amilitary withdrawal without
serious planning, and this isthe same sort of idea.
And then what would NATO do?
What would its mission be?
Absolutely what the mission isnow, to protect the land
borders, the airspace, and thesea lines of communication of
the member states of thetransatlantic region.
(19:17):
Uh, and it would still have to,you know, it would still be
dependent on Article V.
But, you know, the the plusside, of course, is that NATO
has institutional resilience.
Uh, it's it's survived as analliance for 77 years.
It's got a very efficient,effective uh commands, command
(19:39):
control structure, commandstructure.
Uh, it's got a very, veryunderstood, well understood and
and and widely disseminateddoctrine, which is the doctrine
under which which all NATOnations use.
It's got processes, it's gotpolicies, it's got uh uh an
understanding of multinationaloperations.
So we don't need to throw babiesout with bathwater here, but
(20:00):
we've just got to adapt it.
Now we've got to recognize thatyes, without that American
guarantee, there will be gaps.
And we've got to find ways tofill those gaps.
SPEAKER_00 (20:11):
Last word, just to come back to where we started,
if if you'll permit me.
Does this ceasefire, do youthink, uh in this deal with
Iran, does it have long legs?
Do you are you hopeful or areyou pretty pessimistic?
SPEAKER_01 (20:27):
I think we've got to be hopeful.
Uh, and I say that more fromheart than necessarily from
head.
And I mean, the first point isthat the winners here, you know,
are the Iranian, the Iranianpeople uh who've been bombed and
assaulted and terrorized for forfive weeks or four weeks.
Um, you know, I think of the thegirls, the girls who would who
(20:49):
who were who were murdered intheir their school when they
were bombed because America gotits targeting wrong.
So I think, you know, we've gotto be hopeful, but we've also
got to be realistic.
What happens when Iran hangs onto its ten points?
How does America negotiate?
Or what happens more likely whenTrump realizes he's gonna have
(21:13):
to accept Iranian control of theStrait of Homers?
He's gonna have to uh acceptsome form of reparations or uh
for the damage done.
Now that's a big ask.
Does Trump go back to bombing?
I'm not sure that he can go backto bombing in two weeks' time,
but frankly, the derangementthat exists in that office in
(21:36):
the White House, anything ispossible.
SPEAKER_00 (21:39):
General Sheriff, thank you so much for your time.
It's an honor to talk to youthrough.
Thank you.
Thank you for having me, Donna.
SPEAKER_01 (21:45):
Good to talk to you.
SPEAKER_00 (21:49):
Joining me now is Imran Sheikh, executive chairman
and CEO of Black Oak Global,which is a real estate company
that does projects in London,Macedonia.
And focuses a lot on Dubai, uh,luxury property.
And I should say that I'm anassociate partner at Black Oak
and we work together.
Hi, Imra.
SPEAKER_02 (22:09):
Hi, Dana.
Thank you so much for taking thetime.
SPEAKER_00 (22:12):
Thank you.
Um look, the a momentous day aswe record this, because uh we
have a ceasefire that has beenannounced, and uh hopefully it
it holds.
But uh, you know, tell me justfrom a human point of view, uh
five weeks into this, more thanfive weeks, uh how are you
(22:33):
feeling?
I mean, uh there must be a bigsense of relief with you and
your family and people you knowin Dubai.
Absolutely.
SPEAKER_02 (22:41):
Look, I think um, you know, it's it's a great
thing um that we have thisceasefire.
Um let's see how it sort ofplays out plays up over the next
few days.
Um you know, just to bring itback to real estate, um the
market has um really not shownany sign of dislocation.
We have been here on the groundevery single day, um, and you
(23:04):
know, in communication with ourinvestors that have invested
with us over the last few years.
Now, you know, I I think it'simportant to maybe frame that
the narrative is, you know,right now is not volume is
moderating, but the value isaccelerating.
And and that's a very healthysign.
You know, we uh naturally whenwhen this happened, you know,
(23:24):
people were concerned this issomething the first time that
something like this has happenedin the region at this uh at this
level.
So you're always going to get umyou know a certain um group of
people which are always gonnathink, okay, you know, what's
happening, getting nervous aboutthings.
But uh, but I think the markethas been super resilient, right?
We have seen transactionshappening.
(23:46):
Um it it hasn't been a completeflat line where no transactions
are happening, but um and realno real dislocation in pricing.
It's more what we're seeing as arebalancing window.
We you know, we've had a numberof strategy sessions.
SPEAKER_00 (24:00):
Can I can I jump in?
Like, when you say rebalancing,it's a really interesting term,
right?
Because I have people whoclients who want to sell,
they're worried about pricing.
Um, I have people who who youknow bargain hunting, kicking
tires, they're looking for youknow some grandiose discount.
(24:21):
Um, the bubble didn't burst.
So what is what is kind of thatrepricing in your view?
SPEAKER_02 (24:27):
So so what it what exists naturally um you know is
is a is a is a pause after thistremendous growth that we've
had.
And and smart money seems toknow what the difference is,
right?
So when a market has beenaccelerating at at such sort of
you know great lengths, you'retypically going to see a uh you
know a balancing where themarket will soften slightly, um,
(24:48):
and this creates uh anattractive um opportunity for
you know for buyers as well,right?
So um when you look at the youknow, our our market, as you
know, is predominantly, youknow, as as Black Oak has
traditionally been off plan.
Um and over the last few weekswe've kind of pivoted and spent
more time looking at thesecondary market and secondary
(25:09):
transactions.
And what I mean by rebalancingis that you're you're seeing
that um you know there's athere's a there's a correlation
which is expected to be mild andlimited to certain areas and
certain areas which are going tocontinue to have that paucity of
assets.
So when we when we look atmature communities, let's say uh
you know Arabian Ranches, JumeraIslands, Palm Jumera, etc., I
(25:32):
don't see there being any sortof major distress in the market,
and we haven't seen that.
Yes, by default, we've seenbuyers that have been a little
bit more incentivized, and thatis also a natural phenomenon
where, you know, typically, youknow, more of the savvy
investors will see opportunitiesin other markets.
So if they are very heavilyexposed to the market here, they
(25:55):
may say, okay, we're ready tosort of exit some of our
projects, take that liquidityand put it to work in other
markets.
Now, at that level, you startseeing some discounts, but no
real kind of distress deals assuch.
Just I'll give you an example.
Um, on Friday, actually, we metup with a client, um, a very
mature family office that's beenin the region for a number of
(26:17):
years, and they have a portfolioof approximately 400 million
Durham's worth of assets.
Um and you know, we've picked upum four assets on Palm Jamira
and a number of uh high-endapartments and penthouses that
they that they own in in Dubai.
And for them, you know, they'vethey've ridden the wave, they've
done extremely well.
And yes, maybe they wereplanning to hold on for a bit
(26:39):
longer, but now they're beingvery opportunistic and saying,
okay, let's you know, let's exitum the market today and we can
use that and maybe come backinto the market at a more
opportune cost.
So that's just one example.
SPEAKER_00 (26:51):
And so uh Well, I mean it's interesting, right?
Because if I if I can jump inand talk to you about a couple
of things that you raised.
Um so you know, people who feelthat they just have to tuck tuck
tuck in and weather the storm,yeah.
Um, sometimes you don't have todo that with clients, right?
You can advise and say, Well,when did you buy um what what is
(27:13):
your profit now?
Would you be better to you knowtake some of the gravy, take the
profit, and then reinvest insome of the new opportunities
that maybe this crisis hasopened up?
Absolutely.
SPEAKER_02 (27:25):
And and that's what we're advising.
So so some of the investors thatwe were advising that sort of
came into the market, let's say,um, you know, uh six, nine,
twelve months ago, have sort ofhit their benchmark of what
their returns were, they wereexpecting.
And some are sort of saying,okay, no, we're happy, we
completely understand what'shappening in the market, and
we're happy to wait this outbecause they're on payment plans
(27:47):
which sort of go on for two tothree years.
And they, they, you know, theyunderstand as sophisticated
investors that the value will beunlocked, you know, closer to
handover.
But again, some of them hit thatthreshold and saying, okay,
now's a good time uh where themarket's at, and we'll come back
into the market in a slightlydifferent strategy.
So we've been having you knowcalls continuously on a weekly
(28:08):
basis with our internationalinvestors, advising them, uh,
you know, really understanding.
But I would say a lot of thesmarter investors are are there
and saying, we're, you know,we're holding, we're holding
this.
I don't feel that um, and that'sreally on the invest in
investment perspective, but fromthe sellers that we're seeing in
the market, the example that Ijust gave you of this family
office, they're not under,they're not under any pressure.
(28:30):
There's no real false selling,no credit-driven distress.
You know, yes, discounts, it'sit's a nature which they would
have perhaps given anyhow,regardless of what the
circumstance was.
They might have given discountsto uh to to their sale price,
right?
Just by by the nature if theythought the timing was right,
depending on the negotiation.
SPEAKER_00 (28:50):
So it's not necessarily that it's the crisis
brought on that you know, five,ten, fifteen percent.
SPEAKER_02 (28:58):
You know.
Look, I think people who arelet's say slightly more cautious
in in what's happening, um,would probably increase those
discounts.
From a developer perspective,we're seeing some incentives as
well, um, you know, which whichyou'll start seeing from a lot
of the smaller investors just bythe nature of how the
development business worksthere.
(29:20):
Yeah.
So um, you know, it helps withtheir cash flows.
And if you you know, if you Butthere's there's there's there's
some some caution has to beinjected in there, right?
SPEAKER_00 (29:31):
Because if they start discounting what they've
already put out in the market,they start underselling uh
products that people have justbought.
And that wouldn't be healthy forthe market, would it?
SPEAKER_02 (29:42):
Very true.
And and that's why I think thefirst narrative that came out
from the developers are theprice is where it's at.
So we're not looking to sort ofdiscount the price because
that's truly a reflection ofwhere the market today sits.
SPEAKER_00 (29:53):
So what are they discounting?
SPEAKER_02 (29:54):
So they're discounting um land department
fees, for example, incentives,which which they tend to do at
different stages of the year.
SPEAKER_00 (30:01):
So when it's Ramadan, when it's Diwali, when
it's 4% in in uh in Dubai, 2% inAbu Dhabi.
And then also uh I've heard thatthey've changed maybe a little
bit of the payment plans.
They've sweetened some of thepayment plans.
SPEAKER_02 (30:14):
Exactly.
And and we've seen thatfirsthand where developers have
been sort of conscious as welland supporting the industry by
saying, okay, you know, weunderstand that they're what you
know what the market is goingthrough, and we're happy to sort
of extend those payment plansand be more flexible.
So that's also a very, very goodsign.
SPEAKER_00 (30:31):
All right.
Imran.
70% of the market is off plan,right?
So just in case somebody doesn'tunderstand off plan, that's when
builders are getting ready tobuild and they they announce the
the project and people areallowed to invest before the
ground is really dug in mostcases.
So um 70% of the market is offplan.
About what do we say, 65% areforeign investors?
(30:54):
Yeah, I I would say that's athat's a good indication of
where the market is.
So what happens to that market?
Because whether it's beenaccurate or whether it's been
inflated, certainly mediacoverage and social media um
have been flashing some of theseimages up of drone attacks and
missile attacks, those investorssurely uh have pulled in the
(31:18):
reins, and that's got to hitthat uh off-plan market.
SPEAKER_02 (31:24):
Yes.
I and I think you'll you'llstart seeing that that that has,
right?
And I think people and investorsinternationally, you're right,
just because by the nature ofwhat the media has kind of you
know portrayed how Dubai is, andjust gen uh generally investors
being more cautious, have sortof taken a pause.
Whether that's you know really apause in the market or they've
(31:44):
said, okay, this market is notfor us, and we'll start, you
know, investing that capitalelsewhere.
I I genuinely believe that it isa pause to sit on the sidelines
and see, you know, what otheroffers or you know, they uh I I
would say there's differentbuckets and psychology of
people, right?
So you're going to have somewhich are probably more retail
investors that might be shakenby what's happening.
(32:04):
And then you'll have the smartcapital and you know
institutional capital, which isstill coming in.
Um and you've seen that by uh byAbu Dhabi receiving$250 million
during uh during this period.
So there are, look,international inflows remain.
Um, you know, you're ha we havebuyers from India, UK, Pakistan,
Europe, Russia, North America,um, alongside the GCC and MENA
(32:27):
demand.
And what we genuinely have seenin the last two weeks is some of
the regional demand, whetherit's from um Abu Dhabi, whether
it's um, you know, UAE, RasaChema, whether it's Saudi
Kuwait, um, the peopleunderstand the dynamics of the
market more so.
We have a mandate from an AbuDhabi group that's looking for
completed buildings, assets.
(32:49):
I was on a call um on Fridaywith an ex um gentleman from
Goldman's who are veryinterested in setting up a
hospitality fund.
They see a dislocation uh in themarket when it comes to um
hospitality operations, andwe're supporting that by finding
um the you know viable assetsfor them.
So again, when it comes to thesmarter capital, I don't see
(33:10):
them leaving.
They're just putting a pause,reframing, you know, researching
the market, and they willthey'll be back.
SPEAKER_00 (33:16):
And why is the secondary market seemingly more
resilient?
The investors um just seem alittle more sophisticated about
the market.
Is that because the other marketis more speculative, off-plan,
and the secondary market, wetend to think that these are
people who have moved there andare living there, and they have
families there, and they havejobs there, and they have kids
(33:37):
in schools, and people don'tscare off so easily in that
market.
SPEAKER_02 (33:42):
Sure.
And if if if you look at thedemographic here, um uh you
know, a lot of the expats thatare here either own properties
or were always the intention, Ithink really post-COVID
sentiments change was that thisis our home, right?
The leadership has done anincredible job in supporting uh
incentives, the regulatoryframework, everything has
(34:03):
changed to make this a veryattractive place for expats.
So, you know, I I have friendsthat, you know, the intention
was always to buy a family homefor them right here, ones that
had been renting.
And they've always been, okay,you know, we'll get round to it.
And now they're saying, okay,what a perfect opportunity when
there is a little bit of a youknow a structural change in the
(34:23):
market where we might be able toget a better deal.
So, you know, as I said, andI'll bring back, you know, villa
communities, which are veryestablished, older, um, you
know, have a great strong expatsum community.
I don't see any slowdown or anyyou know discounts in pricing.
Yes, you're gonna have theoutliers, right, which is
normal.
SPEAKER_00 (34:43):
Tell me how important because I've said all
along when people ask me, itdepends how long this runs in
terms of what it does to theproperty market, to the tourism
market.
Um but it also is reallyimportant how it ends, right?
Because if people want stabilityand they want to know uh that
(35:04):
this ceasefire, which turns intoa long-term agreement,
hopefully, has long legs andthere isn't gonna be disruption
again in the market.
It's really important if thatpeople believe that this is here
to stay uh and that theceasefire is real.
SPEAKER_02 (35:21):
Sure.
Um so so the question is is howlong do I think this is gonna
last or the impact of what'sgoing to happen after this,
right?
And there there was a questionin there.
Sure.
SPEAKER_00 (35:31):
There was a question in there, but I I think.
But it's essentially howimportant is it for people how
it ends?
I mean, yeah that that this uhthis has got long legs and that
it there's real stabilitybecause if if people worry that
this could kick up in anothersix months or another year,
that's going to have verynegative effects on Dubai and
the market.
SPEAKER_02 (35:52):
Sure.
I mean, the the longer somethinglike this, you know, goes on,
naturally there's there's goingto be um, you know, a
challenging market here.
And I think people will willkind of have that effect of
what's happening andunderstanding.
And um it's gonna bechallenging.
I I I I will not say that.
And the sooner it is resolved,um, look, I think we're coming,
(36:13):
you know, very soon into summer.
Um the market does does sort ofshift when when people are
traveling, but then also umcoming back at the end of
summer, I think will be atestament to see how the market
is going to respond if thisceasefire holds.
Now, I truly believe that if wecompare Dubai to other major
(36:34):
cities around the world, um, andyou know, there's always the
question, can you compare Dubaito the London, the New York, the
Hong Kong, the Singapore, etc.?
Uh, and yes, you know, we've gotworld-class infrastructure,
we've got a great uh socialliving environment here.
So truly, I believe, although itis a fairly new city, you can
you can draw comparisons tothose.
(36:54):
And when you look at those, youknow, uh cities, we are trading
at a tremendous discount still.
Now, I know this argument hasbeen going on for for many years
on a price per square foot, butgenuinely, if uh I I truly
believe when when this does umand then it, you know, if if it
does resolve in in a verymeaningful time, I think you'll
see that um uh that um uh uh youknow the disparity, you'll see
(37:19):
the spread kind of tighten,you'll see prices kind of shoot
up.
I I truly believe that there'sgoing to be a tremendous growth
coming out of this.
Um so that that's where that'sthat's where my personal stance
stands, right?
I've I've been here 20 years, sowe've seen a lot, we've uh we've
learned a lot from the market.
SPEAKER_00 (37:36):
So last question to you.
I mean, uh how long are people'smemories, right?
If this is sorted, people and itstops.
How long does it take for thetourism market to come back?
How long does it take for theproperty market not only to come
back, but uh it may reallyblossom beyond anything we've
seen if people think there'sreal peace in the region and a
(37:58):
um and and that it's muchbrighter than it was before the
war started.
SPEAKER_02 (38:03):
It's funny, I I so I was speaking to friends in
London, um, actually justearlier on, and my friend is
like, I'm looking for dealscoming out in Christmas, right?
I'm scanning for deals at themoment for uh you know for
hotels.
So I think it's veryshort-lived.
People have a very, veryshort-term memory of things like
this, however drastic it may be.
Um, I think people will forget.
(38:24):
Post summer, you know, give it amonth, two months, three months,
people forget.
Um, you know, this market hasbeen strong and has been a
number one tourist destinationfor for a lot of uh cities
around the world.
Um, and I think that doesn'tchange, right?
Yes, if it does come out ofthis, I think tourism will
rebound very fast.
And and you know, it brings meback to my point when you see
(38:46):
sort of you know tier oneinternational institutions
looking at hospitality and F andB and those types of markets,
that really kind of uh gives youconfidence that they're seeing
from their research that thismarket is um very durable, it's
uh it's resilient, and we'llcome back fairly quickly.
SPEAKER_00 (39:04):
So Imran Sheikh of uh Black Oak Global, great to
talk to you.
Thank you, Dana.
Likewise, it was a pleasure.
And that's our backstory thisweek on the Iran ceasefire.
If you want to invest in Dubaior may already be an investor
trying to navigate the marketnow, reach out to me.
Black Oak or on Instagram.
(39:25):
Happy to talk to you aboutopportunities and your
portfolio.
And what next?
On Iran, I'm not sure who's deepand who's still fiery.
Let's hope it holds.
Quick comment.
Never in 30 years of journalismhave I seen a time in the
American administration whereevery development is worked so
hard to achieve politicalvictory and the facts are barely
(39:48):
present, in my opinion.
Defense Secretary Pete Hakesthat couldn't be less
forthcoming during this war.
They have undermined all themainstream media, boosting only
favorable journalists over thosewho actually report.
And so now when they want theAmerican public to believe,
there is so much skepticismbecause they really have minimal
(40:08):
amounts of credibility.
I guess that's price for tryingto control media.
You're not believable at the endof the day.
No one seems to get that.
Thanks for listening tobackstory.
I'm Dana Lewis, and I'll talk toyou against it.
They've been subjected to an industrial-scale
aerial assault by the Americansand by the Israelis.
But at the end of this process,who's coming out stronger?
Probably, probably the Iranianregime.
SPEAKER_02 (00:12):
So I think it's very short-lived.
People have a very, veryshort-term memory of things like
this, however drastic it may be.
Um, I think people will forget.
Post-summer, you know, give it amonth, two months, three months,
people forget.
Um, you know, this market hasbeen strong and has been a
number one tourist destinationfor for a lot of uh cities
around the world.
SPEAKER_00 (00:34):
Hi everyone, and welcome to another edition of
Backstory.
I'm Dana Lewis.
Ceasefire with Iran.
What was the point of this warin the first place?
Well, now the preconditions Iranhas set for the ceasefire
negotiations seem daunting.
No American troops in the MiddleEast.
Iran controls the Strait ofHormuz.
What about the nuclear programand ballistic missiles and
(00:55):
regime change?
The Americans and Israelis willhave to polish this up to claim
victory.
I speak to General RichardSheriff, a former NATO
commander.
And what happens now to Gulfnations like the United Arab
Emirates, which have borne thebrunt of nightly drone and
missile attacks by Iran?
The property market, which isthe bread and butter economy
(01:17):
along with tourism in Dubai, hastaken a body blow.
Those are my words.
But CEO of Black Oak luxuryproperty agency Imran Sheikh
gives us his take on a marketthat he thinks is more resilient
than you may think.
General Richard Sheriff is aretired senior British Army
(01:39):
officer, and he is an author,and he has also served as the
deputy supreme allied commanderin Europe, which is a NATO
position general, correct?
Correct.
Yep.
Look, it's very timely to haveyou on, and hopefully this
doesn't get dated too quicklybecause things are moving pretty
rapidly.
But as you know, uh PresidentTrump has announced a ceasefire
(02:01):
with Iran.
I'm not sure who's agreeing tocease and who's still going to
be firing, but let's see how itplays out.
Um they'll they're they're gonnacall this, of course, anything
that uh Trump is behind as aterrific, fantastic, uh, you
know, best agreement uh ever.
What's your take on it so far?
SPEAKER_01 (02:21):
My take is that this last, well, it is how long it's
lasted since the war started,has been a masterclass in utter
futility.
Um I I the fact is that Trumphas accepted uh uh the Iranian
10 points, 10-point proposal asa workable basis on which to
negotiate.
(02:42):
And I can't see how he's goingto end up in a better position
than he was before he launchedthis attack.
SPEAKER_00 (02:52):
So he let's just build on that.
He says, first of all, that um,and also the vice president J.D.
Vance was speaking uh in Hungarythis morning, uh, throwing his
weight behind Viktor Orban,which is a completely different
subject, but uh notable, that uhthat Iran um that that America
(03:12):
has accomplished all of itsmilitary targets in Iran.
SPEAKER_01 (03:18):
Uh do you would you agree with that?
Yeah, that that might be thecase.
They might have done.
Um and they have decimatedalongside the Israelis, they
have decimated the leadership,they have destroyed large
quantities of the Iranianmilitary, they've destroyed the
navy, uh, and absolutely writtendown the Iranian military.
(03:41):
Although it has to be said thatthe Iranians continue to have
the ability to launch a lot ofdrones and and some ballistic
missiles back at at not only atIsrael but also the Gulf states.
But the fact is, that's that'salmost that's almost a side
issue.
The fact is, so long as theIranians hold the Gulf, the
Strait of Hormuz, Trump islosing.
(04:03):
And he knows that.
And I think that's why he gothis friend, Field Marshal Munir
of Pakistan, to broker thisparticular ceasefire.
And that's why he's behind it.
Um I mean the alternative we hadhis genocidal threats about
destroying a great civilizationyesterday.
(04:24):
He also knows, the penny hasfinally dropped, that there was
no military solution to openingthe Strait of Homers, that that
would not have led to a realcatastrophe for the United
States.
So what were the options?
Catastrophe followed byhumiliation, or in a sense, the
(04:44):
humiliation of a standby, astand down, and he's gone for
the latter.
SPEAKER_00 (04:49):
But according to this 10-point uh uh plan by the
Iranians or their proposal thathe says that he's, you know,
let's see how it plays out inthe next two weeks of
negotiations.
But Iran says they're gonnaremain in control of the Strait
of Hormuz along with Oman, Iguess, uh charging, you know,
upwards of two million uhdollars or euros or whatever it
(05:11):
may be on every ship that passesthrough there when this conflict
began, as as you will note andso many others, that Iran was
never in charge of the Strait ofHormuz to begin with.
How can that stand?
How can an internationalwaterway be controlled by the R
IRGC?
SPEAKER_01 (05:30):
This is my point.
That how can this be couldpossibly construed as a victory
for Trump if he has now ended upin a much worse place than he
was before he launched the war?
Now you're right.
How can it stand?
This is Iran and Amand, to befair, now planning to exercise
control as a sort of toll boothon the Strait of Hormuz, which
(05:52):
is a it's which is which is amuch worse position.
And it's gonna put shippingprices up massively.
It's gonna net a hell of a lotof money for the Iranian uh the
Iranian exchequer as well.
How do you change that?
You change the regime, younegotiate it away, or you launch
a military, some sort ofmilitary venture, which would be
ill start.
I think it's very difficult tosee how the international
(06:14):
community changes that positionuh without concessions to Iran,
about sanctions, uh, and maybeTrump has to accept a lot of
those points in the Iranian10-point plan, including, for
example, the removal of Americantroops in the Gulf.
So so I think Trump is on theback foot, and the Iranians know
(06:35):
it.
Removal of American troops inthe Gulf.
Well, that is one that is one ofthe concerns, you know, I think
a couple uh a number of thoseare the things that are.
That's on the list, certainly.
That's on the list.
Uh removal of sanctions is onthe list, cessation of
hostilities, not only againstpermanent cessation of
hostilities against Iran, butalso against Iranian allies.
So that would mean Hezbollah,presumably, which the Israelis
(06:58):
continue to hammer.
So the bottom line is that Iran,Iran now continues to hold the
vital ground, which is theStrait of Omar's, and can
negotiate from a position ofstrength.
Um, will America go back tobombing?
They might in two weeks' time.
But realistically, I think it'spretty unlikely because they
(07:19):
know, and it has demonstrated,they've however much they bomb,
they've not been able to changethat fundamental fact of
geography which the Iranians aretaking advantage of.
SPEAKER_00 (07:30):
So what kind of an agreement is this?
A ceasefire, and if if Iranremains in control of enriched
uranium, or you know, may maybeit's now buried under tons and
hundreds of tons of rubble, butit's there.
Um, and then what will the testbe, in your view, on the success
(07:52):
uh of an agreement on theirnuclear program, that they're
going to abandon that and thenany test with within that, and
sorry for the length of myquestion, but any test within
that then has to focus onverification?
SPEAKER_01 (08:06):
I mean, the answer is I I I'm I'm I don't know is
the answer.
These, you know, if you thinkthat what the JCPA took years to
negotiate, two years orsomething, they've now got two
weeks to try and negotiate thisone.
And and this is uh this is amatter for the you know for the
diplomats uh to try and gettheir heads round.
But at every stage, I thinkyou're demonstrating it with
(08:29):
these these really relevantquestions and points you're
raising, at every stage, theIranians have got the upper
hand.
Uh as long as, you know, so longas the ceasefire holds, that's
the thing.
Of course, America could go backto bombing, but is it going to
get them any further down theline?
I don't think it will.
SPEAKER_00 (08:48):
What about the ballistic missile program?
I mean, uh the Iranians haveshown, you know, that it's not
only is it muscular, that it wasresilient and they were able to
hide a lot of the launchers,continue the launch.
Um The New York Times has run uhinterviews uh quoting
intelligence sources in the U.S.
that maybe they only got 50% ofthe launchers and the drone
(09:11):
launch of uh sites, that therewere a lot of um that there were
a lot of uh sites that were fakein the first place, that the
Americans may have wasted timebombing.
It's a bit like what happened inKosovo, but um that that the
Iranians were able to rebuildwithin hours some of those silos
and launch facilities.
I mean, that that's also afailed aspect of this war, isn't
(09:34):
it?
For the Americans.
SPEAKER_01 (09:36):
Well, I I I I I I mean the figures you you you you
read out or you list are uh Imean are very compelling.
And if that is the case, it isabsolutely a failure.
And this is the point, in asense, because at every stage,
at regular points during thislast three weeks, four weeks or
so, five weeks, Trump hasproclaimed arrogantly that the
(09:57):
ballistic missile capability hasbeen obliterated.
And then what happens the nextday?
Wah, woomf, woof, woof, moremissiles come in to Israeli
cities uh or um uh Gulf states.
And it just demonstrates thatthis industrial, there's sort of
it's a typical Americanobsession with destruction and
(10:20):
listing destruction.
It almost goes back to, youknow, the body counts of the
Vietnam War.
Somehow it's it's it's reducedto an industrial process.
And it's not that simple.
It's much more complex thanthat.
And these, you know, these i ithe Iranians have been planning
for this for years.
They've known that that they'relikely to be in the firing line
uh under American missile attackand uh and bombing attack.
(10:43):
And so they've planned for it.
They've built a degree ofresilience, which I think has
demonstrated, you know, it'sbeen been demonstrated very
effectively.
And there's a sort of supremeirony here that Iranian military
capability, yes, it's beenabsolutely hammered.
They've been subjected to anindustrial-scale aerial assault
by uh by by by uh by theAmericans and by the Israelis.
(11:07):
But at the end of this process,who's coming out stronger?
Probably probably the Iranianregime.
And that is not what Trumpwanted.
That is absolutely a defeat forTrump.
Uh and, you know, as I say, Ithink this is a sort of, you
know, uh a moment where in avery real sense the American
(11:31):
position as the this you know,here is the global superpower
which has now beendiplomatically and strategically
uh bettered by uh a a theocracy,a fourth-rate theocracy,
autocracy, dictatorship,horrible regime, all the other
stuff that you can you candescribe Iran.
(11:53):
But Iran comes out stronger.
SPEAKER_00 (11:55):
General Sheriff, can you give me your take on that
regime?
Uh uh I and I know it's hard todo it because some of the faces
have changed, uh, but the IRGCremains the integral part of
that regime.
And part of Trump's campaign uhfor war was that they would uh
stop Iran from running itsproxies all over the region,
(12:17):
whether it be Hamas, Hezbollah,and d elements in Syria and on
and on.
Uh I don't think we I don'tthink the Americans have
accomplished that, have they?
SPEAKER_01 (12:29):
It's difficult to say at this rate.
I mean, the Israelis will go onhammering ha Hezbollah as we're
hearing thus far.
My take on the regime, I mean,it's a horrific regime.
It's massacred tens of thousandsof its people earlier this year
when they tried to protestagainst it.
Um, it has created mayhem,exported terrorism, and been a
(12:52):
massive thorn in theinternational side for for for
much of the 47 years it's beenin existence.
But it's clearly a regime whichis resilient, has organized
itself uh in order to cope withthe sort of attacks it has
faced, and it's like a hydra, ina sense, you cut off one head,
(13:13):
ten heads grow in its place.
Um and and the effect of bombingit.
I mean, the irony is just beforethis uh campaign was launched,
the word on the street was thatthe negotiations uh hosted by
the Amanis were actually gettingsomewhere, and the Iranians had
agreed to uh to give up thatenriched uranium.
(13:34):
What's happened now as a resultof the bombing, and funny old
thing, it always happens inhistory.
You've only got to look back inhistory.
Bombing entrenches regimes.
It entrenches and it and italmost acts as a sort of
unifying force.
And what you've got is a regime,I suspect, where, yeah, the the
(13:54):
leadership has been decimated,but the hardliners remain, uh,
and they are not going to giveup easily.
And they know exactly where theystand.
SPEAKER_00 (14:05):
Can you speak to Trump's uh you know, calling um
whether it be Prime MinisterKeir Starmer or whether it be
other European leaders, uh somesome pretty uh insulting names
and labels and essentiallylabeling NATO as cowards in this
for not coming and opening upthe Strait of Hormuz?
(14:27):
And then I see a lot of likesocial media comments from
Americans like the Europeansfailed us.
Um, you know, building on whatessentially the the US President
has said.
So why didn't Europe and NATO uhcome when they were called?
SPEAKER_01 (14:46):
Dead simple, Dana.
This is Trump's war.
It's not NATO's war.
NATO is an alliance devoted tothe defense of its members.
It is not an alliance that comeswhen with a dog whistle from
America prosecuting a hupristicwar without a strategy where
(15:08):
there was no imminent threat toAmerica.
That is not what NATO is about.
And it was absolutely right forNATO to say, your war, your
mess, you sort it out, exceptthat it's not quite that simple
because the whole internationalcommunity's got to sort it out.
It's now I can understandfrustration in America about
(15:31):
Europe, and I may say so aswell, Canada, unwillingness to
step up to the mark in defensespending.
That's a fair call.
But the fact is that that isthat NATO is not about
supporting a hubristic NATO uhAmerican attack on another
nation.
SPEAKER_00 (15:51):
Where goes NATO now?
Because you know that uhPresident Trump has said that,
you know, and and others in theUS administration uh are
questioning now the you knowNATO that they can't be counted
on and uh, you know, that NATO'sgonna pay a price later on.
By the way, while they're sayingthat, they are a member of NATO.
They're not saying that from theoutside, which people don't
(16:14):
sometimes process.
They are a key member of NATOand always have been.
SPEAKER_01 (16:20):
I think this just reinforces uh something I felt
for well, ever since really weheard Vegans and uh Vance, Vance
and Hegsif stand up at Brusselsand Munich Security Conference
at the beginning of last year,2025, making it very clear that
America was not going tounderpin European security.
That was the time NATO shouldhave started adjusting to the
(16:43):
reality that America'scommitment to Article V then was
going, it's now dead.
We have to assume that Americais no longer an ally.
Actually, America is a bully anda predator under Trump, and we
cannot trust America.
And if there's another thingthat comes out of this recent
(17:03):
saga, of course, it isabsolutely when you get the sort
of deranged posts of destroyingcivilizations that we've heard
from the the leader of of theUnited States, America under
Trump cannot in any way, shape,or form be trusted.
So what?
So America becomes, to use PrimeMinister Mark Carney's words, an
(17:28):
alliance of the middle powers,an alliance of America and
Canada.
And that is going, yes, ofcourse, there's gotta this is a
this is a rupture, absolutely arupture.
Again, to pick up uh PrimeMinister Carney's words at
Davos, it is a rupture.
But there's gotta be atransition.
There's gotta be a transitionthat says we move the alliance
(17:49):
from an alliance which dependedon the United States to an
alliance of Europe and Canadawhich can stand on its own
without dependence on the UnitedStates, while maintaining good,
strong links with the UnitedStates, because Trump and the
derangement of the White Houseis not going to go on forever,
we hope.
(18:10):
And that is the challenge now.
But NATO's got to recognize thatit's got to take responsibility,
or the Europeans and Canada havegot to take responsibility for
the allowance.
And they could do that.
We could do that.
NATO remains.
SPEAKER_00 (18:23):
That's my question.
Can you do, I mean, can that bedone without all that money from
the US?
The what uh two-thirdscontributors to NATO?
unknown (18:32):
Yeah.
SPEAKER_01 (18:32):
Well, I mean, in simple terms, Dana, it's got to
be done.
There's no there's no ifs orbuts here.
We've got to find the ways to doit.
We've got to find imaginative,innovative ways to fund the
capabilities required.
We've got to identify the gapsand fill those gaps.
And that's not going to happenover time, which is why it
without it's not going to happenshort in a quick time, which is
why you need that transition andwhy we've got to continue to
(18:55):
maintain.
We need a proper plan withAmerica, effectively, uh a
withdrawal plan.
I mean, you wouldn't launch amilitary withdrawal without
serious planning, and this isthe same sort of idea.
And then what would NATO do?
What would its mission be?
Absolutely what the mission isnow, to protect the land
borders, the airspace, and thesea lines of communication of
the member states of thetransatlantic region.
(19:17):
Uh, and it would still have to,you know, it would still be
dependent on Article V.
But, you know, the the plusside, of course, is that NATO
has institutional resilience.
Uh, it's it's survived as analliance for 77 years.
It's got a very efficient,effective uh commands, command
(19:39):
control structure, commandstructure.
Uh, it's got a very, veryunderstood, well understood and
and and widely disseminateddoctrine, which is the doctrine
under which which all NATOnations use.
It's got processes, it's gotpolicies, it's got uh uh an
understanding of multinationaloperations.
So we don't need to throw babiesout with bathwater here, but
(20:00):
we've just got to adapt it.
Now we've got to recognize thatyes, without that American
guarantee, there will be gaps.
And we've got to find ways tofill those gaps.
SPEAKER_00 (20:11):
Last word, just to come back to where we started,
if if you'll permit me.
Does this ceasefire, do youthink, uh in this deal with
Iran, does it have long legs?
Do you are you hopeful or areyou pretty pessimistic?
SPEAKER_01 (20:27):
I think we've got to be hopeful.
Uh, and I say that more fromheart than necessarily from
head.
And I mean, the first point isthat the winners here, you know,
are the Iranian, the Iranianpeople uh who've been bombed and
assaulted and terrorized for forfive weeks or four weeks.
Um, you know, I think of the thegirls, the girls who would who
(20:49):
who were who were murdered intheir their school when they
were bombed because America gotits targeting wrong.
So I think, you know, we've gotto be hopeful, but we've also
got to be realistic.
What happens when Iran hangs onto its ten points?
How does America negotiate?
Or what happens more likely whenTrump realizes he's gonna have
(21:13):
to accept Iranian control of theStrait of Homers?
He's gonna have to uh acceptsome form of reparations or uh
for the damage done.
Now that's a big ask.
Does Trump go back to bombing?
I'm not sure that he can go backto bombing in two weeks' time,
but frankly, the derangementthat exists in that office in
(21:36):
the White House, anything ispossible.
SPEAKER_00 (21:39):
General Sheriff, thank you so much for your time.
It's an honor to talk to youthrough.
Thank you.
Thank you for having me, Donna.
SPEAKER_01 (21:45):
Good to talk to you.
SPEAKER_00 (21:49):
Joining me now is Imran Sheikh, executive chairman
and CEO of Black Oak Global,which is a real estate company
that does projects in London,Macedonia.
And focuses a lot on Dubai, uh,luxury property.
And I should say that I'm anassociate partner at Black Oak
and we work together.
Hi, Imra.
SPEAKER_02 (22:09):
Hi, Dana.
Thank you so much for taking thetime.
SPEAKER_00 (22:12):
Thank you.
Um look, the a momentous day aswe record this, because uh we
have a ceasefire that has beenannounced, and uh hopefully it
it holds.
But uh, you know, tell me justfrom a human point of view, uh
five weeks into this, more thanfive weeks, uh how are you
(22:33):
feeling?
I mean, uh there must be a bigsense of relief with you and
your family and people you knowin Dubai.
Absolutely.
SPEAKER_02 (22:41):
Look, I think um, you know, it's it's a great
thing um that we have thisceasefire.
Um let's see how it sort ofplays out plays up over the next
few days.
Um you know, just to bring itback to real estate, um the
market has um really not shownany sign of dislocation.
We have been here on the groundevery single day, um, and you
(23:04):
know, in communication with ourinvestors that have invested
with us over the last few years.
Now, you know, I I think it'simportant to maybe frame that
the narrative is, you know,right now is not volume is
moderating, but the value isaccelerating.
And and that's a very healthysign.
You know, we uh naturally whenwhen this happened, you know,
(23:24):
people were concerned this issomething the first time that
something like this has happenedin the region at this uh at this
level.
So you're always going to get umyou know a certain um group of
people which are always gonnathink, okay, you know, what's
happening, getting nervous aboutthings.
But uh, but I think the markethas been super resilient, right?
We have seen transactionshappening.
(23:46):
Um it it hasn't been a completeflat line where no transactions
are happening, but um and realno real dislocation in pricing.
It's more what we're seeing as arebalancing window.
We you know, we've had a numberof strategy sessions.
SPEAKER_00 (24:00):
Can I can I jump in?
Like, when you say rebalancing,it's a really interesting term,
right?
Because I have people whoclients who want to sell,
they're worried about pricing.
Um, I have people who who youknow bargain hunting, kicking
tires, they're looking for youknow some grandiose discount.
(24:21):
Um, the bubble didn't burst.
So what is what is kind of thatrepricing in your view?
SPEAKER_02 (24:27):
So so what it what exists naturally um you know is
is a is a is a pause after thistremendous growth that we've
had.
And and smart money seems toknow what the difference is,
right?
So when a market has beenaccelerating at at such sort of
you know great lengths, you'retypically going to see a uh you
know a balancing where themarket will soften slightly, um,
(24:48):
and this creates uh anattractive um opportunity for
you know for buyers as well,right?
So um when you look at the youknow, our our market, as you
know, is predominantly, youknow, as as Black Oak has
traditionally been off plan.
Um and over the last few weekswe've kind of pivoted and spent
more time looking at thesecondary market and secondary
(25:09):
transactions.
And what I mean by rebalancingis that you're you're seeing
that um you know there's athere's a there's a correlation
which is expected to be mild andlimited to certain areas and
certain areas which are going tocontinue to have that paucity of
assets.
So when we when we look atmature communities, let's say uh
you know Arabian Ranches, JumeraIslands, Palm Jumera, etc., I
(25:32):
don't see there being any sortof major distress in the market,
and we haven't seen that.
Yes, by default, we've seenbuyers that have been a little
bit more incentivized, and thatis also a natural phenomenon
where, you know, typically, youknow, more of the savvy
investors will see opportunitiesin other markets.
So if they are very heavilyexposed to the market here, they
(25:55):
may say, okay, we're ready tosort of exit some of our
projects, take that liquidityand put it to work in other
markets.
Now, at that level, you startseeing some discounts, but no
real kind of distress deals assuch.
Just I'll give you an example.
Um, on Friday, actually, we metup with a client, um, a very
mature family office that's beenin the region for a number of
(26:17):
years, and they have a portfolioof approximately 400 million
Durham's worth of assets.
Um and you know, we've picked upum four assets on Palm Jamira
and a number of uh high-endapartments and penthouses that
they that they own in in Dubai.
And for them, you know, they'vethey've ridden the wave, they've
done extremely well.
And yes, maybe they wereplanning to hold on for a bit
(26:39):
longer, but now they're beingvery opportunistic and saying,
okay, let's you know, let's exitum the market today and we can
use that and maybe come backinto the market at a more
opportune cost.
So that's just one example.
SPEAKER_00 (26:51):
And so uh Well, I mean it's interesting, right?
Because if I if I can jump inand talk to you about a couple
of things that you raised.
Um so you know, people who feelthat they just have to tuck tuck
tuck in and weather the storm,yeah.
Um, sometimes you don't have todo that with clients, right?
You can advise and say, Well,when did you buy um what what is
(27:13):
your profit now?
Would you be better to you knowtake some of the gravy, take the
profit, and then reinvest insome of the new opportunities
that maybe this crisis hasopened up?
Absolutely.
SPEAKER_02 (27:25):
And and that's what we're advising.
So so some of the investors thatwe were advising that sort of
came into the market, let's say,um, you know, uh six, nine,
twelve months ago, have sort ofhit their benchmark of what
their returns were, they wereexpecting.
And some are sort of saying,okay, no, we're happy, we
completely understand what'shappening in the market, and
we're happy to wait this outbecause they're on payment plans
(27:47):
which sort of go on for two tothree years.
And they, they, you know, theyunderstand as sophisticated
investors that the value will beunlocked, you know, closer to
handover.
But again, some of them hit thatthreshold and saying, okay,
now's a good time uh where themarket's at, and we'll come back
into the market in a slightlydifferent strategy.
So we've been having you knowcalls continuously on a weekly
(28:08):
basis with our internationalinvestors, advising them, uh,
you know, really understanding.
But I would say a lot of thesmarter investors are are there
and saying, we're, you know,we're holding, we're holding
this.
I don't feel that um, and that'sreally on the invest in
investment perspective, but fromthe sellers that we're seeing in
the market, the example that Ijust gave you of this family
office, they're not under,they're not under any pressure.
(28:30):
There's no real false selling,no credit-driven distress.
You know, yes, discounts, it'sit's a nature which they would
have perhaps given anyhow,regardless of what the
circumstance was.
They might have given discountsto uh to to their sale price,
right?
Just by by the nature if theythought the timing was right,
depending on the negotiation.
SPEAKER_00 (28:50):
So it's not necessarily that it's the crisis
brought on that you know, five,ten, fifteen percent.
SPEAKER_02 (28:58):
You know.
Look, I think people who arelet's say slightly more cautious
in in what's happening, um,would probably increase those
discounts.
From a developer perspective,we're seeing some incentives as
well, um, you know, which whichyou'll start seeing from a lot
of the smaller investors just bythe nature of how the
development business worksthere.
(29:20):
Yeah.
So um, you know, it helps withtheir cash flows.
And if you you know, if you Butthere's there's there's there's
some some caution has to beinjected in there, right?
SPEAKER_00 (29:31):
Because if they start discounting what they've
already put out in the market,they start underselling uh
products that people have justbought.
And that wouldn't be healthy forthe market, would it?
SPEAKER_02 (29:42):
Very true.
And and that's why I think thefirst narrative that came out
from the developers are theprice is where it's at.
So we're not looking to sort ofdiscount the price because
that's truly a reflection ofwhere the market today sits.
SPEAKER_00 (29:53):
So what are they discounting?
SPEAKER_02 (29:54):
So they're discounting um land department
fees, for example, incentives,which which they tend to do at
different stages of the year.
SPEAKER_00 (30:01):
So when it's Ramadan, when it's Diwali, when
it's 4% in in uh in Dubai, 2% inAbu Dhabi.
And then also uh I've heard thatthey've changed maybe a little
bit of the payment plans.
They've sweetened some of thepayment plans.
SPEAKER_02 (30:14):
Exactly.
And and we've seen thatfirsthand where developers have
been sort of conscious as welland supporting the industry by
saying, okay, you know, weunderstand that they're what you
know what the market is goingthrough, and we're happy to sort
of extend those payment plansand be more flexible.
So that's also a very, very goodsign.
SPEAKER_00 (30:31):
All right.
Imran.
70% of the market is off plan,right?
So just in case somebody doesn'tunderstand off plan, that's when
builders are getting ready tobuild and they they announce the
the project and people areallowed to invest before the
ground is really dug in mostcases.
So um 70% of the market is offplan.
About what do we say, 65% areforeign investors?
(30:54):
Yeah, I I would say that's athat's a good indication of
where the market is.
So what happens to that market?
Because whether it's beenaccurate or whether it's been
inflated, certainly mediacoverage and social media um
have been flashing some of theseimages up of drone attacks and
missile attacks, those investorssurely uh have pulled in the
(31:18):
reins, and that's got to hitthat uh off-plan market.
SPEAKER_02 (31:24):
Yes.
I and I think you'll you'llstart seeing that that that has,
right?
And I think people and investorsinternationally, you're right,
just because by the nature ofwhat the media has kind of you
know portrayed how Dubai is, andjust gen uh generally investors
being more cautious, have sortof taken a pause.
Whether that's you know really apause in the market or they've
(31:44):
said, okay, this market is notfor us, and we'll start, you
know, investing that capitalelsewhere.
I I genuinely believe that it isa pause to sit on the sidelines
and see, you know, what otheroffers or you know, they uh I I
would say there's differentbuckets and psychology of
people, right?
So you're going to have somewhich are probably more retail
investors that might be shakenby what's happening.
(32:04):
And then you'll have the smartcapital and you know
institutional capital, which isstill coming in.
Um and you've seen that by uh byAbu Dhabi receiving$250 million
during uh during this period.
So there are, look,international inflows remain.
Um, you know, you're ha we havebuyers from India, UK, Pakistan,
Europe, Russia, North America,um, alongside the GCC and MENA
(32:27):
demand.
And what we genuinely have seenin the last two weeks is some of
the regional demand, whetherit's from um Abu Dhabi, whether
it's um, you know, UAE, RasaChema, whether it's Saudi
Kuwait, um, the peopleunderstand the dynamics of the
market more so.
We have a mandate from an AbuDhabi group that's looking for
completed buildings, assets.
(32:49):
I was on a call um on Fridaywith an ex um gentleman from
Goldman's who are veryinterested in setting up a
hospitality fund.
They see a dislocation uh in themarket when it comes to um
hospitality operations, andwe're supporting that by finding
um the you know viable assetsfor them.
So again, when it comes to thesmarter capital, I don't see
(33:10):
them leaving.
They're just putting a pause,reframing, you know, researching
the market, and they willthey'll be back.
SPEAKER_00 (33:16):
And why is the secondary market seemingly more
resilient?
The investors um just seem alittle more sophisticated about
the market.
Is that because the other marketis more speculative, off-plan,
and the secondary market, wetend to think that these are
people who have moved there andare living there, and they have
families there, and they havejobs there, and they have kids
(33:37):
in schools, and people don'tscare off so easily in that
market.
SPEAKER_02 (33:42):
Sure.
And if if if you look at thedemographic here, um uh you
know, a lot of the expats thatare here either own properties
or were always the intention, Ithink really post-COVID
sentiments change was that thisis our home, right?
The leadership has done anincredible job in supporting uh
incentives, the regulatoryframework, everything has
(34:03):
changed to make this a veryattractive place for expats.
So, you know, I I have friendsthat, you know, the intention
was always to buy a family homefor them right here, ones that
had been renting.
And they've always been, okay,you know, we'll get round to it.
And now they're saying, okay,what a perfect opportunity when
there is a little bit of a youknow a structural change in the
(34:23):
market where we might be able toget a better deal.
So, you know, as I said, andI'll bring back, you know, villa
communities, which are veryestablished, older, um, you
know, have a great strong expatsum community.
I don't see any slowdown or anyyou know discounts in pricing.
Yes, you're gonna have theoutliers, right, which is
normal.
SPEAKER_00 (34:43):
Tell me how important because I've said all
along when people ask me, itdepends how long this runs in
terms of what it does to theproperty market, to the tourism
market.
Um but it also is reallyimportant how it ends, right?
Because if people want stabilityand they want to know uh that
(35:04):
this ceasefire, which turns intoa long-term agreement,
hopefully, has long legs andthere isn't gonna be disruption
again in the market.
It's really important if thatpeople believe that this is here
to stay uh and that theceasefire is real.
SPEAKER_02 (35:21):
Sure.
Um so so the question is is howlong do I think this is gonna
last or the impact of what'sgoing to happen after this,
right?
And there there was a questionin there.
Sure.
SPEAKER_00 (35:31):
There was a question in there, but I I think.
But it's essentially howimportant is it for people how
it ends?
I mean, yeah that that this uhthis has got long legs and that
it there's real stabilitybecause if if people worry that
this could kick up in anothersix months or another year,
that's going to have verynegative effects on Dubai and
the market.
SPEAKER_02 (35:52):
Sure.
I mean, the the longer somethinglike this, you know, goes on,
naturally there's there's goingto be um, you know, a
challenging market here.
And I think people will willkind of have that effect of
what's happening andunderstanding.
And um it's gonna bechallenging.
I I I I will not say that.
And the sooner it is resolved,um, look, I think we're coming,
(36:13):
you know, very soon into summer.
Um the market does does sort ofshift when when people are
traveling, but then also umcoming back at the end of
summer, I think will be atestament to see how the market
is going to respond if thisceasefire holds.
Now, I truly believe that if wecompare Dubai to other major
(36:34):
cities around the world, um, andyou know, there's always the
question, can you compare Dubaito the London, the New York, the
Hong Kong, the Singapore, etc.?
Uh, and yes, you know, we've gotworld-class infrastructure,
we've got a great uh socialliving environment here.
So truly, I believe, although itis a fairly new city, you can
you can draw comparisons tothose.
(36:54):
And when you look at those, youknow, uh cities, we are trading
at a tremendous discount still.
Now, I know this argument hasbeen going on for for many years
on a price per square foot, butgenuinely, if uh I I truly
believe when when this does umand then it, you know, if if it
does resolve in in a verymeaningful time, I think you'll
see that um uh that um uh uh youknow the disparity, you'll see
(37:19):
the spread kind of tighten,you'll see prices kind of shoot
up.
I I truly believe that there'sgoing to be a tremendous growth
coming out of this.
Um so that that's where that'sthat's where my personal stance
stands, right?
I've I've been here 20 years, sowe've seen a lot, we've uh we've
learned a lot from the market.
SPEAKER_00 (37:36):
So last question to you.
I mean, uh how long are people'smemories, right?
If this is sorted, people and itstops.
How long does it take for thetourism market to come back?
How long does it take for theproperty market not only to come
back, but uh it may reallyblossom beyond anything we've
seen if people think there'sreal peace in the region and a
(37:58):
um and and that it's muchbrighter than it was before the
war started.
SPEAKER_02 (38:03):
It's funny, I I so I was speaking to friends in
London, um, actually justearlier on, and my friend is
like, I'm looking for dealscoming out in Christmas, right?
I'm scanning for deals at themoment for uh you know for
hotels.
So I think it's veryshort-lived.
People have a very, veryshort-term memory of things like
this, however drastic it may be.
Um, I think people will forget.
(38:24):
Post summer, you know, give it amonth, two months, three months,
people forget.
Um, you know, this market hasbeen strong and has been a
number one tourist destinationfor for a lot of uh cities
around the world.
Um, and I think that doesn'tchange, right?
Yes, if it does come out ofthis, I think tourism will
rebound very fast.
And and you know, it brings meback to my point when you see
(38:46):
sort of you know tier oneinternational institutions
looking at hospitality and F andB and those types of markets,
that really kind of uh gives youconfidence that they're seeing
from their research that thismarket is um very durable, it's
uh it's resilient, and we'llcome back fairly quickly.
SPEAKER_00 (39:04):
So Imran Sheikh of uh Black Oak Global, great to
talk to you.
Thank you, Dana.
Likewise, it was a pleasure.
And that's our backstory thisweek on the Iran ceasefire.
If you want to invest in Dubaior may already be an investor
trying to navigate the marketnow, reach out to me.
Black Oak or on Instagram.
(39:25):
Happy to talk to you aboutopportunities and your
portfolio.
And what next?
On Iran, I'm not sure who's deepand who's still fiery.
Let's hope it holds.
Quick comment.
Never in 30 years of journalismhave I seen a time in the
American administration whereevery development is worked so
hard to achieve politicalvictory and the facts are barely
(39:48):
present, in my opinion.
Defense Secretary Pete Hakesthat couldn't be less
forthcoming during this war.
They have undermined all themainstream media, boosting only
favorable journalists over thosewho actually report.
And so now when they want theAmerican public to believe,
there is so much skepticismbecause they really have minimal
(40:08):
amounts of credibility.
I guess that's price for tryingto control media.
You're not believable at the endof the day.
No one seems to get that.
Thanks for listening tobackstory.
I'm Dana Lewis, and I'll talk toyou against it.
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