December 3, 2025 • 35 mins
Major League Baseball Offseason Hot Stove turns up the temperature on the 2025–2026 winter, breaking down how front offices are reshaping the league before a single pitch is thrown. In this episode, we walk through the biggest confirmed moves so far and what they actually mean on the field. From the New York Mets locking down elite closer Devin Williams to stabilize the back end of their bullpen, to the Toronto Blue Jays rolling the dice on Korean league MVP Cody Ponce, the show looks beyond the headline and into how these additions change depth charts, late-inning strategies, and clubhouse expectations. The Boston Red Sox’s move for veteran starter Sonny Gray gets extra attention, not only for the innings he can provide but for the way it stirs long-standing rivalries and sends a message to the rest of the division. From there, the conversation shifts into the rumor mill and the wider free agent market. The episode takes a close look at the sweepstakes surrounding power bat Kyle Schwarber, examining which contenders can afford him, which truly need him, and how one signing could reshape the DH and outfield market. Potential blockbuster trades involving stars like Tarik Skubal are explored in detail, with scenarios for what desperate contenders might be willing to sacrifice from their farm systems to push themselves over the top before the Winter Meetings. Club-by-club analysis highlights how different organizations are approaching this offseason. Listeners get an update on the Baltimore Orioles’ highly regarded prospect pipeline and how they might leverage it, either by promoting from within or dangling young talent in trades. The Cleveland Guardians’ roster needs are examined through the lens of payroll flexibility, positional holes, and long-term competitive windows. Throughout, the episode ties together themes of budget constraints, roster construction, and the balancing act between winning now and sustaining success. Beyond the splashy headlines, the show digs into the quieter but crucial work happening behind the scenes: international scouting investments, under-the-radar signings, and the way teams are using analytics to evaluate not just veterans but the next wave of prospects. It becomes clear that every minor deal and non-roster invite is part of a broader strategy. By the end of the episode, listeners come away with a clear picture of where the Hot Stove stands: which teams are all-in, which are quietly retooling, and which stars could still be on the move. If you follow every rumor, refresh your feed for transaction alerts, and love the chess match of team-building as much as the games themselves, this offseason deep dive is your perfect companion until pitchers and catchers report.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome in everybody. We are officially in the thick of
the off season. The hot stove is burning and with
the winter meetings right around the corner, the market is
already well, it's already setting some absolutely seismic precedents.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
It really is. I mean, things have gotten started way
faster than usual this offseason. Normally December is when things
just start to warm up. But some of the deals
we've already.
Speaker 1 (00:23):
Seen, especially on the pitching side.
Speaker 2 (00:24):
Oh, especially the nine figure contracts for pitchers. Yeah, it's
established these staggering market values for everyone who's left, all
the top free agents and you know the big trade candidates.
You're seeing the big clubs signaling they want to win now,
and they're doing it loudly and expensively.
Speaker 1 (00:41):
So today that's what we're going to unpack. We'll look
at these huge moves, the economics behind the free agent market,
and then get into the trade rumors that could, you know,
completely reshape the league. And of course we have to
talk about the Hall of Fame ballot.
Speaker 2 (00:55):
I was a contentious one always, But let's.
Speaker 1 (00:58):
Start with the team that has just completely dominated the headlines,
the Toronto Blue Jays after that heartbreaking World Series loss
Game seven against the Dodgers. They have gone absolutely all in.
Speaker 2 (01:09):
It's a really fascinating case study. Isn't it an immediate
aggressive pivot. They're just prioritizing getting talent right now, and
they don't seem to care about the long term financial
penalties or the draft picks. It's all about twenty twenty six.
Speaker 1 (01:23):
They are not messing around that taste of the World Series.
Even losing it clearly lit a fire under ownership. And
the biggest move, the defining move of the entire offseason
so far, has to be Dylancy's.
Speaker 2 (01:34):
Oh absolutely, And it wasn't just, you know, a standard trade.
They immediately signed him to that passive extension, a seven year,
two hundred and ten million dollars deal. That is a
monumental commitment, it is.
Speaker 1 (01:45):
And they're committing to a guy who gives them two
things they seem to value above all else, durability and
the ability to miss bats.
Speaker 2 (01:52):
He's a workhorse. I mean, look at the numbers, thirty
two or more starts and over two hundred strikeouts in
five straight seasons. That kind of volume, that reliability, it's
just incredibly rare in today's game, where every pitcher seems
so fragile.
Speaker 1 (02:06):
But you know, when you're paying a guy thirty million
dollars a year, you're not just buying innings, you're buying results.
And that's where the Seas analysis gets a little bit
tricky for me. His consistency in volume doesn't always translate
to consistency in you know, preventing runs.
Speaker 2 (02:20):
Man is the two hundred and ten million dollar gamble, right, Yeah,
Sees has elite stuff when he's on. He's a legit
SIY a young candidate. We've seen it, we have. But
his floor has been well, concerningly low in the last
couple of years. If you look at twenty twenty five
with the Padres, he had a four point five to
five ERA one point three to three WHIP.
Speaker 1 (02:39):
And that's almost identical to his last year with the
White Sox in twenty twenty three, a four point five
eight ERA one point four to two WHP. So the
Blue Jays are betting big that their pitching coaches can
get him back to a ceiling.
Speaker 2 (02:51):
They have to, Yeah, because paying that kind of money
for a guy who just eats innings with a four
and a half RA that's a tough pill to swallow
for any team, no matter how big your market.
Speaker 1 (02:59):
Is, and this commitment, this contract, it sends a clear
signal that they are in win now mode no matter
what it costs them long term. And this contract specifically
is so significant because of the resources well it ran.
Speaker 2 (03:12):
It pushes them past a really critical financial line. So
the C steal plus their other projections, it pushes their
payroll too. Are on two hundred and seventy two million dollars.
But the key number the luxury tax projection, that's now
over two hundred eighty million dollars.
Speaker 1 (03:27):
Which puts them in that second tier of the competitive
balance tax. So what does that actually mean for you
listening at home.
Speaker 2 (03:33):
It means the penalties get severe fast. For every dollar
you spend, the tax goes up dramatically. In the first tier,
it's a twenty percent tax, okay, But once you cross
into that second tier where the Jays are now, the
penalty jumps to forty two percent. On all the spending
between two hundred and sixty four million dollars and two
hundred and eighty four million dollars. They are knowingly consciously
(03:54):
accepting a massive financial.
Speaker 1 (03:56):
Hit, all because they think this one guy is the
difference between winning a World Series and an playoff disappointment.
Speaker 2 (04:01):
And it's not just money, right, The organizational cost tells
you even more about how all end they really are.
Speaker 1 (04:06):
Yeah, that's a great point.
Speaker 2 (04:07):
They had to forfeit their second and fifth highest picks
in next summer's draft, plus a million dollars from the
International bonus Pool, just to sign Cease.
Speaker 1 (04:17):
So it's not just about cash, it's about gutting your
future talent typeline.
Speaker 2 (04:21):
Precisely, they are prioritizing a championship in twenty twenty six
over building depth for say twenty thirty. It's a huge,
huge gamble on the present.
Speaker 1 (04:30):
Okay, So if Cease was the massive predictable move, their
next move was maybe the biggest surprise of the off season,
signing the KBO MVP Cody Punts.
Speaker 2 (04:40):
This is a truly intriguing one. Punce a righty gets
a three year, thirty million dollar deal. That's a record
for a pitcher coming back to MLB from the KBO.
Speaker 1 (04:49):
A ten million dollar AAV that says they see him
as a real rotation piece, not just some flyer they're
taking a chance on.
Speaker 2 (04:55):
Exactly, and all of that belief is based on the
season he just had with the.
Speaker 1 (04:58):
Hanwaii Eagles, which was just unbelievable.
Speaker 2 (05:01):
I mean the definition of dominant. Yeah, a one point
eight to nine ERA is seventeen and one record, and
he led the league with two hundred and fifty two
strikeouts in one hundred and eighty two innings.
Speaker 1 (05:08):
And a strikeout percentage was what over thirty six percent?
Speaker 2 (05:11):
Yeah, thirty six point two percent, the best in the league.
He's the only KBO pitcher with a sub two point
zero zero ERA who threw over one hundred innings. He
just completely mastered that league.
Speaker 1 (05:22):
But the big question, the shadow hanging over this whole deal,
is his time in MLB with the Pirates, which was
not good.
Speaker 2 (05:29):
And that's the gap the Blue Jays are betting they
can close his career. MLB ERA is five point eighty
six a WHP over one and a half. Yeah. The
leap you have to make from being dominant in the
KBO to just being competent in MLB is what makes
this such a fascinating gamble.
Speaker 1 (05:45):
You hear so many different comparisons for the KBO. Some
say it's like hi A, some say double A, and
then you hear others say it's closer to the majors.
How do you square that?
Speaker 2 (05:53):
The difference is really in the style of play. KBO
hitters generally have less power, they're more focused on contact,
hitting high fastballs. Pitchers tend to rely more on off
speed stuff and command over just you know, pure velocity,
which is what dominates here. So a picture like Punts
who thrives over there, he's often out smarting hitters who
are a little less aggressive. That one point eight to
(06:14):
nine ERA probably translates to something more like a four
point zero to four point three year ra in the majors.
The Jays are betting that his confidence and his improved
command will.
Speaker 1 (06:23):
Stick, and they're betting on a proven archetype. Right the
pitcher who goes overseas finds himself and comes back totally
transformed exactly.
Speaker 2 (06:31):
We've seen this blueprint work. Eric fed is the best
recent example, former first rounder struggled here, went to the
KBO and was amazing twenty wins two point zero zero ERA,
and came back to be a really effective big league arm.
Speaker 1 (06:43):
And then there's Meryl Kelly.
Speaker 2 (06:44):
Meryl Kelly a perfect example. He went forty eight and
thirty two over four years in Korea. Came back and
became the super reliable, valuable starter for the Diamondbacks, pitched
them deep into the playoffs in twenty twenty three.
Speaker 1 (06:55):
Can't forget Miles Micholas too, found his game in Japan,
came back to the Cardinals and became All Star. The
Blue Jays are clearly buying into the specific type of
calculated risk.
Speaker 2 (07:04):
And look, if Ponce gives them, say, one hundred and
fifty innings with an ERA in the low fours for
the next three years, that thirty million dollar contract is
going to look like an absolute bargain.
Speaker 1 (07:14):
So with these two big additions, the Blue Jays rotation
is just I mean, it looks absolutely stacked on paper.
Speaker 2 (07:20):
It really does. You're looking at a projected rotation of Cees,
Trey Y Savage, Kevin Gosman, Shane Bieber and now Ponce.
And the depth is what's really impressive. They've still got
Jose Burrios and er Klauer, who was solid in that
swing roll last year.
Speaker 1 (07:33):
That's seven deep with legitimate starters, which is.
Speaker 2 (07:37):
Critical in modern baseball, especially after a long playoff run
that really tacks their arms last year. You can never have.
Speaker 1 (07:42):
Enough pitching, but that surplus that depth creates a bit
of a financial problem, doesn't it. Specifically with Jose.
Speaker 2 (07:49):
Burrios, it absolutely does. Brios is owed eighteen million dollars
next season, and he hasn't opt out after twenty twenty six.
But given that his strikeout rate has been under twenty
percent for two years in a row, there's almost no
chance he ops out of the two years and forty
eight million dollars left on that deal.
Speaker 1 (08:05):
So if Toronto wants to clear some salary maybe to
help re sign a guy like Bobaschett, Burrio seems like
the most logical guy to trade.
Speaker 2 (08:12):
He is, but moving him is going to require some,
let's say, uncomfortable financial decisions. It's going to be tough
to find a team willing to take on that full
eighteen million dollars for a picture whose velocity is ticking down.
Speaker 1 (08:27):
So Toronto would have to eat some of that money.
Speaker 2 (08:29):
They almost certainly have to pay down a good chunk
of that eighteen million dollars he's owed next year, or
maybe take back another contract that's a little bit underwater
in return.
Speaker 1 (08:37):
Well wait, if they have to pay say, eight million
dollars just to move him, are they really saving enough
money to make a difference. Is a ten million dollars
savings enough to get them in on another big free
agent or are they just better off keeping him as
premium depth.
Speaker 2 (08:52):
That is the exact question their front office is wrestling
with right now. Saving ten million in AAV might not
be enough to drastically change their plans, but what it
does give you is flexibility. You can turn that rotation
spot into maybe a bat you need or a key
bullpen arm through a trade.
Speaker 1 (09:09):
So it's a move they only make if the right
deal comes along.
Speaker 2 (09:11):
Right, they'd have to find a team, maybe a team
like the Orioles, that desperately needs reliable innings that's willing
to take on most of that salary without Toronto having
to pay it all down. It's a tricky situation.
Speaker 1 (09:23):
Okay, let's pivot from all that pitching to the other
side of the ball. The market for power hitters has
been much quieter. The biggest bat still out there is
Kyle Schwarber, the DH who just finished second in the
NLMVP voting.
Speaker 2 (09:35):
The Schwarber situation is such a perfect case study. You
have this tension between a team's clear need, a player's
local connection and just severe budget limitations and it's all
focused on the Cincinnati Reds.
Speaker 1 (09:48):
Yeah, Schwarber's from Middletown, Ohio. The emotional connection is obvious,
but more than that, the fit on the field is
just perfect. The Reds need that scary bat in the
middle of their lineup and DH is their most glaring hole.
Speaker 2 (10:00):
Well, the money is the huge, huge hurdle. The Reds
have always been incredibly conservative with free agent spending. There
are two largest deals ever are matching four year, sixty
four million dollar contracts.
Speaker 1 (10:11):
So their record for average annual value their AAV is
only sixteen million dollars.
Speaker 2 (10:17):
Exactly, and Schwarberz is going to get a guarantee well
over one hundred million dollars. He could command thirty million
dollars a year, maybe more. He could literally require double
Cincinnati's all time record AAV.
Speaker 1 (10:29):
It just feels impossible for the Reds unless they get really,
really creative. And the rumor is that they're looking at
deferred money as a potential solution.
Speaker 2 (10:36):
This is the financial trick that could make it all work.
Deferred money is money that's paid to the player after
the contract is over, and the Reds have views this
before with guys like Ken Griffey Junior and Bronson Royo.
Speaker 1 (10:48):
So how does that actually help them with the payroll hit?
Right now, It's.
Speaker 2 (10:51):
All about how the competitive balance tax, the loaxury tax
is calculated. Deferred money is discounted based on its present value.
So if the Reds give him and let's say, a
four year, one hundred million dollar deal, but they defer
forty million dollars of it to be paid out starting
in twenty thirty.
Speaker 1 (11:06):
The immediate AAV goes way.
Speaker 2 (11:08):
Down, way down. Instead of a twenty five million dollar
AAV for luxury tax purposes, they could realistically get it
down to maybe fifteen million dollars a year through twenty
twenty nine.
Speaker 1 (11:17):
Which is right in their historical comfort zone exactly.
Speaker 2 (11:21):
Schwarber gets his big nine figure guarantee, his security, and
the Reds get their superstar bat without blowing up their budget.
Right now, it's a clever move for a small market
team trying to play with the big boys.
Speaker 1 (11:32):
But if the Reds can't pull it off, Schwarber has
plenty of other options.
Speaker 2 (11:36):
Oh for sure, the Red Sox are definitely in they
need a big middle of the order bat. After getting
Sunny Gray, the Orioles want more power, the Giants, the Mets.
He's got a lot of suitors. The feeling is he'll
probably sign by the end of the winter meetings.
Speaker 1 (11:51):
So beyond Schwarber, what other big names are still out there?
Speaker 2 (11:54):
Well, you still got a couple of star short stops waiting. Bobaschett,
whose future in Toronto is a little murky with all
their spending, and Hassan Kim who's waiting for the market
to develop.
Speaker 1 (12:04):
And then there's the whole Alex Bregman situation, which is
fascinating because of how many different teams he could fit on.
Speaker 2 (12:10):
He's such an interesting piece. He's still seen as a
perfect fit for the Yankees. He gives them production, he
can play third, he can fill in it short. But
the price has always been the issue for the Yankees,
who've been a little more disciplined lately.
Speaker 1 (12:21):
And the Red Sox are in on him too.
Speaker 2 (12:23):
Mm hmm. They got their picture and now they're focused
on a right handed bat for the middle of the order,
so they're reportedly looking at both Bregman and maybe even
Pete Alonzo depending on how the prices shake out.
Speaker 1 (12:33):
So while the big markets fight over the superstars, you
have teams like the Washington Nationals who are playing a
different game, looking at that next tier of free agents.
Speaker 2 (12:40):
That's right. They see the slow market as an opportunity.
If guys like Kyle Tucker are still unsigned in January,
the Nationals can make some smart, calculated moves on players
like Ryan O'Hearn, Eugenio Suarez, maybe a pitcher like Lucas
Gilito or Zach Eflin.
Speaker 1 (12:56):
And there's a really interesting rumor about a specific strategy
they might use for a high value pitcher like Michael King.
Speaker 2 (13:02):
Yeah that's pretty clever. Yeah. So King is projected to
get a big deal, maybe four years eighty eight million
dollars from a contender, but if that long term market
doesn't develop for.
Speaker 1 (13:13):
Him, the Nats could pounce with a different kind of offer.
Speaker 2 (13:15):
Exactly, They could offer a short term, high AAV deal.
The scenario being talked about is two years fifty two
million dollars, but with an opt out after year one.
Speaker 1 (13:26):
Wow, that's a huge AAV twenty six million a year.
What's in it for the Nats?
Speaker 2 (13:31):
Well, King gets a massive payday right now, and he
gets to try free agency again next winter. If you
pitch as well, for the Nationals, they either get a
frontline starter for two years to help them contend, or
it is the key part. If they're not in the race,
they can flip them at the trade deadline for a
huge package of prospects.
Speaker 1 (13:49):
So it turns a slow market into a chance to
get a massive return on a short term investment.
Speaker 2 (13:54):
It's a really smart, calculated risk. It's a way for
a rebuilding team to leverage its financial flexibility for long
term gain.
Speaker 1 (14:02):
Let's zoom out a bit. We keep talking about money,
payroll risk. How much of all this you know? The
Jay's spending, the Reds creativity is being driven by the
fact that the next collective bargaining agreement is coming up
in twenty twenty seven.
Speaker 2 (14:14):
I think it's influencing almost everything. There's a theory that
some of the teams that have been historically cheap, let's.
Speaker 1 (14:20):
Say the Marlins with their sixty seven million dollars payroll
last year, or the Pirates at eighty eight million dollars.
Speaker 2 (14:27):
Exactly those teams. The theory is that they are spending now,
or at least exploring spending specifically to influence those CBA talks.
Speaker 1 (14:37):
Why do they have to prove they're willing to spend
right now.
Speaker 2 (14:39):
It's all tied to the push for centralized broadcast revenue
and revised revenue sharing. The big market teams your Dodgers
in Red Sox, they've said they're willing to support pooling
that TV money, which would be a huge help to
the smaller markets.
Speaker 1 (14:54):
But there's a catch.
Speaker 2 (14:55):
There's a big catch. They'll only do it if the
small market owners prove they're actually committed to trying to win,
to putting a good product on the field.
Speaker 1 (15:02):
In other words, they don't want to just be handing
money to owners who are going to pocket it instead
of investing in the team.
Speaker 2 (15:08):
Precisely, so, this spending we're seeing, or at least the
rumors of spending, it's a strategic move. Its owners posturing
to show the big markets, hey, we're serious before they
all get to the negotiating table in twenty twenty seven.
Speaker 1 (15:20):
An essential part of that whole debate is the salary
floor versus a salary cap.
Speaker 2 (15:24):
Right. Hal Steinbrenner of the Yankees has said he supports
a minimum payroll a salary floor, but he wants it
tied to a hard salary cap. And that's the absolute
sticking point.
Speaker 1 (15:35):
Because the smaller teams are terrified of getting stuck with
a bad long term contract.
Speaker 2 (15:39):
They're terrified of it. Think about the deals for Chris
Bryant or Anthony Rendon. Those contracts can sink a small
market team for years if the player gets hurt or declines.
So they want a max contract length, maybe four or
five years, so that a player always has some trade
value if they need to rebuild.
Speaker 1 (15:57):
And when you talk about those huge, risky long term
you have to talk about the ultimate example from last season,
Wan Soto's fifteen years, seven hundred and sixty five million
dollar contract.
Speaker 2 (16:07):
The Soto deal is the benchmark. It is the ultimate
big Boys table gamble. And statistically, I mean Soto's an
absolute monster. His career on base percentage zo point four
to one seven. He averages one hundred and thirty two
walks a year. It's incredible.
Speaker 1 (16:19):
But you still hear the criticism from some fans and
even some owners that they want guys who swing the
damn lumber.
Speaker 2 (16:24):
They want hits, not just walks. Sodo's career high in
hits is only one hundred and sixty six. You compare
that to a guy like Bobby Witt junior, who's averaged
one hundred ninety one hits over the last three seasons.
Speaker 1 (16:34):
Now, analytically we know that Obp is probably more valuable.
Speaker 2 (16:37):
Oh for sure, Soto's walk rate is lethal, but there's
still this emotional preference for that traditional two hundred hit guy,
especially when an owner is thinking about spending three quarters
of a billion dollars. The success or failure of that
Sodo contract is this huge cloud hanging over every major
negotiation this winter.
Speaker 1 (16:55):
It sets the entire psychological bar for what kind of
risk teams are willing to take.
Speaker 2 (17:00):
It absolutely does.
Speaker 1 (17:01):
Okay, let's shish over to the trade market. There are
a few names being thrown around that could just fundamentally
change the league. And it all starts with the biggest
potential blockbuster, Detroit Tigers ace Terik Scuoball.
Speaker 2 (17:12):
Schooble's probably the single best trade asset available. He's a
two time reigning ALC Young Winner, and he's under team
control through twenty twenty six, and the extension talks have
apparently gone nowhere.
Speaker 1 (17:24):
So despite the Tigers saying, you know, he's not going anywhere,
the speculation is running wild.
Speaker 2 (17:29):
Well, when you have a pitcher that good. The contenders
are always going to be calling the Dodgers, even after
winning back to Backworld Series. They're always looking to get better.
They're definitely linked to him, But the.
Speaker 1 (17:40):
Cubs are the team you here mentioned most often.
Speaker 2 (17:43):
Yeah, a lot of insiders think the Cubs of the
prime landing spot for him if he does get moved.
Speaker 1 (17:47):
So why would the Tigers even think about moving a
two time cy Young winner even if the extension talks
have stalled.
Speaker 2 (17:54):
It's all about the return. They could get a massive,
massive haul of prospects for him, only controllable for two
more seasons, the Tigers could basically restock their entire farm
system for the next five years with one trade.
Speaker 1 (18:07):
It's that classic trade off immediate dominance for long term
security exactly.
Speaker 2 (18:12):
And the price to get him would be enormous.
Speaker 1 (18:15):
What kind of package are we talking about here? For
two years of a picture like that?
Speaker 2 (18:19):
The rumored package from the Cubs would be something like
catcher Moyses, Bilesto's right hander Jackson Wiggins, outfielder Kevin al Cantera,
and another writery, Javier as'ad That is four very highly
regarded young players.
Speaker 1 (18:35):
And what does giving up those specific guys mean for
the Cub's future.
Speaker 2 (18:39):
It's a huge price. Losing al Kantara and Blestros means
you're sacrificing two potential cornerstone pieces of your next core.
You're trading future potential for immediate elite win now performance.
It's a deal that would make them World Series favorites
right away, but it definitely shortens their long term contention window.
Speaker 1 (18:58):
Speaking of the Dodgers, they won it all again, but
they did it despite some pretty clear holes in their
bullpen late in games.
Speaker 2 (19:05):
Right, they're looking for another high leverage guy for the
eighth or ninth inning. They have expensive options like Tanner Scott,
and they even use Roki Sasaki as a weapon out
of the pen in the playoffs, but they need to
solidify that group for the long haul of the regular season.
Speaker 1 (19:19):
And that search for perfection has led to some pretty
surprising rumors, the idea that the Dodgers might actually trade
one of their starters, specifically Tyler Glasnow.
Speaker 2 (19:27):
Yeah, this one is interesting. Moving Glasnow, who's owed thirty
two point five million dollars over the next two years.
It feels counterintuitive.
Speaker 1 (19:35):
He's so talented, so why would the World Series champs
even consider it.
Speaker 2 (19:39):
It's all about creative flexibility. If they move Glasno's salary,
it frees up the money to go get another impact player,
maybe an outfielder like Stephen Kwan. Or they could use
Glass Now as the centerpiece of a deal to get
an even better starter like Scoble.
Speaker 1 (19:53):
And their rotation is still deep enough to handle it.
Speaker 2 (19:56):
On paper, Yeah, they'd still have Otani, Yamamoto, Snell, Emmett, Chehan,
and Sasaki. So moving glass Now, while it would hurt,
is plausible if it makes the overall roster better.
Speaker 1 (20:08):
And that brings us to Blake Snell, who's now a Dodger,
but his old contract is still causing major headaches for
his former team, the Giants.
Speaker 2 (20:16):
This is just a fantastic piece of financial irony. The
Giants are reportedly really hesitant to offer big contracts with
opt outs or deferred money this offseason, and it's all
because of their experience with Snell.
Speaker 1 (20:27):
They're still paying him, aren't they.
Speaker 2 (20:29):
They are. They still have to pay him seventeen million
dollars in deferred signing bonus money on January fifteenth, even
though he's now pitching for their biggest rival, and just
help the Dodgers win the World Series. It's a really
harsh lesson in how deferred money can come back to
bite you.
Speaker 1 (20:43):
Ouch. Okay, Let's look at the position player trademarket. It
starts with the Red Sox, who suddenly have a very
crowded outfield now that Roman Anthony has broken out, and
that makes Jared Duran pretty expendable.
Speaker 2 (20:55):
Duran's an interesting case. He just had a career best
twenty five homers and twenty twenty five but his trade
value is a little complicated because his walk rate just
it cratered. He strikes out a ton, But that power
and speed combination is still really attractive to teams that
need offense, and.
Speaker 1 (21:12):
There are a couple of really interesting trade proposals out
there for him. Let's start with the Seattle Mariners.
Speaker 2 (21:18):
The Mariners need a bat. Duran would be a huge
upgrade over trying to re sign Eugenio Suarez Jorge Polanco.
You could slot him in right ahead of Julio Rodriguez
and Cal Rawley, and that lineup suddenly looks a lot.
Speaker 1 (21:30):
Deeper and what would it cost them.
Speaker 2 (21:33):
Seattle might be able to get him with prospects like
Cole Young or Michael Royo without how to give up
their top guy, cold Emerson. It's a deal that makes
a lot of sense for them.
Speaker 1 (21:41):
The other proposal is more of a one for one
swap Duran to the Phillies for Alec Bohm.
Speaker 2 (21:45):
This is the kind of creative trade that's so fun
to think about. The Phillies get Duran, which solves their
need for a center fielder with some speed and pop,
and the Red Sox get Alec Bohm, a steady, capable
third baseman who fits their current ross perfectly.
Speaker 1 (22:00):
And that whole idea is fueled by the rumor that
Boehm is as good as gone if the Phillies managed
to sign Alex Bregman.
Speaker 2 (22:08):
That's exactly right. Bowm only makes ten million dollars next year,
so he's very easy to move. If they land Brigmant,
that's another superstar to go with Harper and Turner. Bowem
becomes the obvious odd man out and they can use
him as a trade chip to fill their hole in
center field.
Speaker 1 (22:23):
Elsewhere, you've got the Cardinals, whose rebuild seems to be
pushing Wilson Contreras toward waving his no trade clause.
Speaker 2 (22:29):
Yeah, he's reportedly more open to a move now they've
already traded Sunny Gray. The rebuild is on, and this
is a big shift. Just a few months ago, analysts
were saying there was only about a fifteen percent chance
he'd get moved. If he agrees to a trade, he
instantly becomes the best catcher available on the market.
Speaker 1 (22:45):
And the Nationals are listening on their young lefty Mackenzie Gore.
Speaker 2 (22:49):
They're listening, but they're not actively shopping him. Gore is
only twenty six. He has a ton of upside. The
Nationals aren't going to move him unless they get a
particularly strong proposal. Is going to give away years of
control for a middling return.
Speaker 1 (23:03):
Before we move on, we have to talk about the
weirdest rumor of the off season so far, the Pittsburgh
Pirates being linked to Nick Castianos.
Speaker 2 (23:10):
This one just makes absolutely no sense none. Castianos has
owed twenty million dollars in the last year of his deal.
He was awful in twenty twenty five, a negative f
war a WRC plus of ninety, which is ten percent
below league average. The Phillies are desperate to get rid of.
Speaker 1 (23:27):
Him because of the contract, the lack of production, and
his defense.
Speaker 2 (23:30):
His awful defense, as sources call it. He is a
full time DH at this point in his career, so
why on earth would the Pirates even consider this. He'd
be a significant downgrade from Andrew McCutcheon.
Speaker 1 (23:40):
So it's just spending money to spend money.
Speaker 2 (23:42):
That's what it looks like. Even if the Phillies paid
down his contract, It's a move that feels like a
huge mistake for a team like Pittsburgh, which needs to
be smart about how it adds payroll, not just throwing
money at declining big name players.
Speaker 1 (23:54):
Let's turn to the bullpen. The Mets are making a
really aggressive push to build a Super Bowl and it
started with them signing Devin Williams.
Speaker 2 (24:02):
Mm hmm a three year, fifty one million dollar contract.
Williams has eighty six career saves, He's a legitimate closer.
That one move instantly takes the back end of their
bullpen from a weakness to a major strength.
Speaker 1 (24:15):
But according to Ken Rosenthal, they shouldn't stop there. He's
saying the Mets need to push hard to re sign
Edwin Diaz.
Speaker 2 (24:21):
The whole super bullpen idea is built on that. Pairing
Williams in the eighth inning Dz in the ninth that
would be the most feared one two punch in all
of baseball. And Diaz was incredible in twenty twenty five,
a one point sixty three ERA ninety eight strikeouts, just
elite stuff.
Speaker 1 (24:36):
So if the plan is that clear, what's the hold
up on bringing Diaz back.
Speaker 2 (24:39):
It's all about the contract length. Diaz's camp is looking
for a five year deal, but the Mets are really
hesitant to give more than three years to a closer
who's about to turn thirty two. That's usually when you
start to see some decline, and.
Speaker 1 (24:51):
Having Williams already signed gives them some leverage.
Speaker 2 (24:54):
It gives them a great fallback option. But the financial
risk of a five year deal for any reliever, even
one as good as Diz, is just really, really significant.
Speaker 1 (25:04):
The Baltimore Orioles also made a big move for their bullpens,
signing Ryan Helsley to a two year, twenty eight million
dollar deal, But this one feels like a big risk
reward play.
Speaker 2 (25:14):
It is because Hellsley has been two completely different pitchers lately.
With the Cardinals from twenty twenty two to twenty twenty five,
he was a phenomenal closer. But then he got traded
to the Mets mid season, and he just fell apart
a seven point two zero era, a one point eight
zero whip in twenty innings.
Speaker 1 (25:31):
So the Orioles are betting twenty eight million dollars that
their coaches can fix him.
Speaker 2 (25:35):
They're betting they can get the Cardinals version back.
Speaker 1 (25:37):
Let's do a real deep dive here on why he
struggled so much. He said his stuff looked fine on
the Mets model, So what actually went wrong?
Speaker 2 (25:44):
This is a perfect example of how tiny mechanical changes
can completely derail an elite pitcher. Helsley himself said that
even though his velocity was still high, he was being
really predictable in certain counts. He was basically tipping his pitches.
Speaker 1 (25:58):
Giving hitters double confirmation, as he put it. But it
was more than that, right, There was a physical change too.
Speaker 2 (26:03):
There was His average velocity only dropped a little bit
from ninety nine point six down to ninety nine point three,
but his average arm angle climbed dramatically from around fifty
two degrees up to sixty two degrees.
Speaker 1 (26:14):
Wow, that's a ten degree jump. Why does that matter
so much if he's still throwing ninety nine because.
Speaker 2 (26:19):
A fastballs deception comes from its rise, its induced vertical break,
and Asley has great vertical break about eighteen inches, but
that higher, more vertical arm angle basically negated the deception.
The pitch was easier for hitters to see out of
his hand.
Speaker 1 (26:34):
So even though the movement was a lead, it wasn't
as effective exactly.
Speaker 2 (26:38):
The data proves it. Hitters lug points sixty sixty seven
against his four seamer. His whiff rate dropped all the
way to the twenty six percentile.
Speaker 1 (26:46):
So the Orioles are betting they can fix the tipping
and maybe get that arm slot back down a little.
Speaker 2 (26:50):
They're confident they can fix the sequencing and the predictability. Yeah,
and if they can unlock that top tier arm again,
a two year deal with an opt out is an
absolute steal for team trying to win a championship.
Speaker 1 (27:02):
We've had a few other pitching moves to touch on.
Sonny Gray is now with the Red Sox.
Speaker 2 (27:06):
M Gray is thirty six. The Cardinals traded him to
Boston to give them some stability in the middle of
that rotation. He's a reliable that won fourteen games last year.
The only real concern was his fate in the second
half of twenty twenty five. He had a rough five
point four or five ERA after.
Speaker 1 (27:22):
The All Star break, but the Red Sox are betting
he can bounce back.
Speaker 2 (27:25):
He has a long history of doing just that. He
should be a solid inning zetter for them.
Speaker 1 (27:30):
The Angels also made a couple of interesting moves, bringing
in Alc Minoa and Grayson Rodriguez.
Speaker 2 (27:35):
The Minoa signing is a low risk, high reward deal.
They're hoping he can find that all star form he
had early in his career. The Rodriguez trade is more intriguing.
They got him from the Orioles for Taylor Ward.
Speaker 1 (27:46):
Rodriguez was a huge prospect, but he missed all of
twenty twenty five with elbow issues.
Speaker 2 (27:51):
Right, it's a risk, but for an Angels team that's
desperate for starting pitching, getting a guy with his kind
of ceiling is a risk worth taking, even if it
meant giving up a rollable bat like Ward.
Speaker 1 (28:01):
And finally, the Giants are looking for bullpen help, which
brings us to their Rule five prospect Trevor McDonald.
Speaker 2 (28:07):
The Giants need arms badly. McDonald had a tiny but
impressive sample size in the Major's in September, and what
really stood out was his insane reliance on his curveball.
He threw it over fifty percent of the time.
Speaker 1 (28:19):
Fifty percent for a starter that seems completely unsustainable.
Speaker 2 (28:24):
It is the best curveball starters in the league. Guys
like Framber Valdez or Aaron Nola, they use it maybe
thirty thirty five percent of the time. McDonald's high usage
plus a fastball that's a bit underpowered, it just screams reliever.
Speaker 1 (28:36):
So his future is definitely in the bullpen almost certainly.
Speaker 2 (28:39):
That curveball sinker mix could play really well in short bursts.
And because of his Rule five status, the Giants have
to keep him on the big league roster, so they'll
be grooming him as a multi inning reliever for twenty.
Speaker 1 (28:50):
Twenty six and one last international note. The Astro is
also one shopping overseas, signing Ryan Weiss, another pitcher from
the KBO. The pipeline is officially wide open.
Speaker 2 (29:00):
It's clearly as strategy teams are using to find value.
Speaker 1 (29:02):
Now, Okay, we've covered the moves, but sometimes the most
interesting stories are in the numbers that are hiding in
plain sight. And I want to get into some really
specific deep cut data about a catastrophic flaw the Cincinnati
Reds had last year.
Speaker 2 (29:18):
This is a great one. It just exposes a complete
failure in situational hitting and plate discipline. The Reds went
zero and six on the road in extra innings last season.
Speaker 1 (29:27):
But it's worse than that. In five of those six losses,
they failed to score a single run with the free
runner on second base to start the inning. It's staggering.
They played nine total extra innings on the road. The
automatic runner scored only one time, and that was on
a bunt and a throwing air.
Speaker 2 (29:43):
It's just a total indictment of their inability to execute
fundamentals when the pressure's on. They only got the runner
to third base three times in nine tries. Their young
guys were totally exposed. Ellie de la Cruz led off
three of those innings. His results two strikeouts and a PopOut,
all on pitches he chased out of the.
Speaker 1 (30:00):
Zone, and the overall whiff rate in those moments tells
the whole story.
Speaker 2 (30:04):
The whiff rate in extra innings was thirty two point
six percent. That would have been the worst in all
of Major League Baseball for the entire season, they saw
seventy two pitches right down the middle of the plate
and only six of them resulted in hits.
Speaker 1 (30:15):
It just shows a huge organizational failure to lock in
and focus their approach when the game is on the line, and.
Speaker 2 (30:21):
That leads right into the great philosophical baseball debate to
bunt or not to bunt? When you are failing that badly,
do you have to stop trying for the big inning
and just play for one run.
Speaker 1 (30:32):
It's a tough question. In today's game.
Speaker 2 (30:34):
It is the Reds showed bunt seven times in those situations,
and it worked three times. When your offense is that inept,
the argument for just conservatively bunting the runner to third
and hoping for a sac fly becomes a lot more compelling.
The new manager, Terry Francona, he has to fix this
in spring training, all.
Speaker 1 (30:51):
Right, let's switch from strategy to pure drama. Sunny Gray
did not go quietly after being traded from the Cardinals
to the rival Red Sox.
Speaker 2 (31:00):
Oh, he did not. That trade was basically like handing
him a megaphone to air all his grievances about his
time in New York. His comments were pretty shocking, He
said he never wanted to go there New York in
the first.
Speaker 1 (31:11):
Place, which is just an unbelievable reversal from what he
said when the Yankees first traded for him back in
twenty seventeen. He said he couldn't be happier.
Speaker 2 (31:19):
The change in tone just shows how much of a
bad fit it was psychologically. He completely embraced the rivalry
when he got to Boston. He said, it's easy for
me to go to a place where it's easy to
hate the Yankees. I like the challenge. He made it
clear he just felt stifled in New York, and.
Speaker 1 (31:36):
His performance there really backs up that feeling.
Speaker 2 (31:38):
It does. His numbers with the Yankees were easily the
worst of his career, a four point five one, one
point four to two wh FP. He's clearly betting that
by getting out of that environment and being allowed to
be himself, he can get back to being the picture
he was everywhere else.
Speaker 1 (31:52):
Okay, finally, let's get to the Contemporary era Hall of
Fame ballot. The results are coming at the Winter meetings,
and while it always sparks a ton of debate, it's
a tough one.
Speaker 2 (32:03):
This is for players whose careers ended after nineteen eighty
and you've got this mix of guys who probably deserved
to be in and then these borderline cases who are
caught up in the whole steroid era mess.
Speaker 1 (32:13):
Let's start with the guys who are back on the ballot,
the front runners, Don Mattingly and Dale Murphy.
Speaker 2 (32:18):
Maddingly probably has the best shot. He got fifty percent
of the vote last time. His case is all about
his incredible peak with the Yankees nineteen eighty five MVP
runner up in eighty six nine Gold Gloves. The challenge
is he still needs to convince half the committee that
voted against him to change their minds.
Speaker 1 (32:35):
And Dale Murphy.
Speaker 2 (32:36):
Murphy's got a similar profile to Maddingly beloved guy really
high peak, but a shorter run of dominance. A lot
of people think they'll both get serious consideration because they
were clean players and icons of their era.
Speaker 1 (32:48):
Now for the newcomers with strong cases, Let's start with
Carlos Delgado.
Speaker 2 (32:52):
Delgado is a guy who gets overlooked a lot. He
was a terrifying slugger, and crucially, he was never linked
to steroids. He hit twenty four more homers for thirteen
straight seasons, finished with four hundred and seventy three career
home runs.
Speaker 1 (33:05):
And what about his advanced stats his ops plus.
Speaker 2 (33:08):
His career ops plus is one thirty eight, which puts
him right there with guys like Reggie Jackson who was
one hundred and thirty nine and Alex Rodriguezo one hundred
and forty. Statistically, Delgado has a very very strong case.
He's exactly the kind of player the committee should be
taking a closer look at.
Speaker 1 (33:22):
What about Jeff Kent.
Speaker 2 (33:24):
Kent is a true borderline case. His career war is
fifty five point four. He had great power for a
second baseman, but he was a notoriously bad defender. To
put that war in context, Ryan Sandberg was at sixty
eight point one, Roberto Lamar was at sixty seven point one.
Kent is a clear step below the Hall of Fame
standard at his position.
Speaker 1 (33:43):
And Fernando Venezuela is the real wild card this year.
Speaker 2 (33:45):
His case is almost entirely about his cultural impact, which
was just monumental. Fernando Mania changed the game's global appeal.
Many people feel he deserves to be for that reason alone,
but this committee usually struggles with that kind of nuance.
They prefer the hard numbers.
Speaker 1 (34:00):
And Finally, you have the most difficult cases, the guys
from the steroid era, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens and Gary Sheffield.
Speaker 2 (34:09):
Bonds and Clemens are statistically two of the greatest to
ever play, but they're forever tied to steroid used. They've
never shown any remorse. It's just highly unlikely this committee
is going to vote them. Man. They got almost no
support from the Veterans Committee.
Speaker 1 (34:23):
In twenty twenty three and Sheffield.
Speaker 2 (34:25):
Sheffield's case is tricky. He hit five hundred and nine
home runs, but he was also linked to steroids, and
maybe just as importantly, he was an absolutely atrocious fielder.
Some people argue his case would be borderline even without
the steroid connection. He's not expected to get much support either,
So a.
Speaker 1 (34:42):
Really complex group of players. The results from the Winter
meetings are definitely going to be a huge topic of conversation,
no doubt about it. So we've covered a ton of
ground today. The Blue Jays massive spending spree, the tension
in the market for bats as teams like the Reds
get creative, and the big trade chips like Scooball and
Duran who could still move.
Speaker 2 (35:00):
What really stands out from all this is the sheer
amount of calculated risk that teams are taking high leverage
gambles on volatile arms like Pons and Hellsley, all of
it happening under the shadow of those twenty twenty seven
CBA negotiations.
Speaker 1 (35:13):
The entire market is being driven by teams trying to
manage spending constraints, whether they're real or just perceived, all
with an eye on that next labor battle.
Speaker 2 (35:22):
So the big question for you, the listener, as you
watch all this unfold, is this, when every single move
is being viewed through the lens of CBA leverage and
short term risk, are the economics of the game pushing
every team, even the normally cautious ones, into making these
huge gambles, gambles that could completely destabilize them if that
twenty twenty seven agreement doesn't fundamentally change the financial rules
(35:43):
of the game. That's the real high stake strategy we're
all watching play out right now.
Welcome in everybody. We are officially in the thick of
the off season. The hot stove is burning and with
the winter meetings right around the corner, the market is
already well, it's already setting some absolutely seismic precedents.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
It really is. I mean, things have gotten started way
faster than usual this offseason. Normally December is when things
just start to warm up. But some of the deals
we've already.
Speaker 1 (00:23):
Seen, especially on the pitching side.
Speaker 2 (00:24):
Oh, especially the nine figure contracts for pitchers. Yeah, it's
established these staggering market values for everyone who's left, all
the top free agents and you know the big trade candidates.
You're seeing the big clubs signaling they want to win now,
and they're doing it loudly and expensively.
Speaker 1 (00:41):
So today that's what we're going to unpack. We'll look
at these huge moves, the economics behind the free agent market,
and then get into the trade rumors that could, you know,
completely reshape the league. And of course we have to
talk about the Hall of Fame ballot.
Speaker 2 (00:55):
I was a contentious one always, But let's.
Speaker 1 (00:58):
Start with the team that has just completely dominated the headlines,
the Toronto Blue Jays after that heartbreaking World Series loss
Game seven against the Dodgers. They have gone absolutely all in.
Speaker 2 (01:09):
It's a really fascinating case study. Isn't it an immediate
aggressive pivot. They're just prioritizing getting talent right now, and
they don't seem to care about the long term financial
penalties or the draft picks. It's all about twenty twenty six.
Speaker 1 (01:23):
They are not messing around that taste of the World Series.
Even losing it clearly lit a fire under ownership. And
the biggest move, the defining move of the entire offseason
so far, has to be Dylancy's.
Speaker 2 (01:34):
Oh absolutely, And it wasn't just, you know, a standard trade.
They immediately signed him to that passive extension, a seven year,
two hundred and ten million dollars deal. That is a
monumental commitment, it is.
Speaker 1 (01:45):
And they're committing to a guy who gives them two
things they seem to value above all else, durability and
the ability to miss bats.
Speaker 2 (01:52):
He's a workhorse. I mean, look at the numbers, thirty
two or more starts and over two hundred strikeouts in
five straight seasons. That kind of volume, that reliability, it's
just incredibly rare in today's game, where every pitcher seems
so fragile.
Speaker 1 (02:06):
But you know, when you're paying a guy thirty million
dollars a year, you're not just buying innings, you're buying results.
And that's where the Seas analysis gets a little bit
tricky for me. His consistency in volume doesn't always translate
to consistency in you know, preventing runs.
Speaker 2 (02:20):
Man is the two hundred and ten million dollar gamble, right, Yeah,
Sees has elite stuff when he's on. He's a legit
SIY a young candidate. We've seen it, we have. But
his floor has been well, concerningly low in the last
couple of years. If you look at twenty twenty five
with the Padres, he had a four point five to
five ERA one point three to three WHIP.
Speaker 1 (02:39):
And that's almost identical to his last year with the
White Sox in twenty twenty three, a four point five
eight ERA one point four to two WHP. So the
Blue Jays are betting big that their pitching coaches can
get him back to a ceiling.
Speaker 2 (02:51):
They have to, Yeah, because paying that kind of money
for a guy who just eats innings with a four
and a half RA that's a tough pill to swallow
for any team, no matter how big your market.
Speaker 1 (02:59):
Is, and this commitment, this contract, it sends a clear
signal that they are in win now mode no matter
what it costs them long term. And this contract specifically
is so significant because of the resources well it ran.
Speaker 2 (03:12):
It pushes them past a really critical financial line. So
the C steal plus their other projections, it pushes their
payroll too. Are on two hundred and seventy two million dollars.
But the key number the luxury tax projection, that's now
over two hundred eighty million dollars.
Speaker 1 (03:27):
Which puts them in that second tier of the competitive
balance tax. So what does that actually mean for you
listening at home.
Speaker 2 (03:33):
It means the penalties get severe fast. For every dollar
you spend, the tax goes up dramatically. In the first tier,
it's a twenty percent tax, okay, But once you cross
into that second tier where the Jays are now, the
penalty jumps to forty two percent. On all the spending
between two hundred and sixty four million dollars and two
hundred and eighty four million dollars. They are knowingly consciously
(03:54):
accepting a massive financial.
Speaker 1 (03:56):
Hit, all because they think this one guy is the
difference between winning a World Series and an playoff disappointment.
Speaker 2 (04:01):
And it's not just money, right, The organizational cost tells
you even more about how all end they really are.
Speaker 1 (04:06):
Yeah, that's a great point.
Speaker 2 (04:07):
They had to forfeit their second and fifth highest picks
in next summer's draft, plus a million dollars from the
International bonus Pool, just to sign Cease.
Speaker 1 (04:17):
So it's not just about cash, it's about gutting your
future talent typeline.
Speaker 2 (04:21):
Precisely, they are prioritizing a championship in twenty twenty six
over building depth for say twenty thirty. It's a huge,
huge gamble on the present.
Speaker 1 (04:30):
Okay, So if Cease was the massive predictable move, their
next move was maybe the biggest surprise of the off season,
signing the KBO MVP Cody Punts.
Speaker 2 (04:40):
This is a truly intriguing one. Punce a righty gets
a three year, thirty million dollar deal. That's a record
for a pitcher coming back to MLB from the KBO.
Speaker 1 (04:49):
A ten million dollar AAV that says they see him
as a real rotation piece, not just some flyer they're
taking a chance on.
Speaker 2 (04:55):
Exactly, and all of that belief is based on the
season he just had with the.
Speaker 1 (04:58):
Hanwaii Eagles, which was just unbelievable.
Speaker 2 (05:01):
I mean the definition of dominant. Yeah, a one point
eight to nine ERA is seventeen and one record, and
he led the league with two hundred and fifty two
strikeouts in one hundred and eighty two innings.
Speaker 1 (05:08):
And a strikeout percentage was what over thirty six percent?
Speaker 2 (05:11):
Yeah, thirty six point two percent, the best in the league.
He's the only KBO pitcher with a sub two point
zero zero ERA who threw over one hundred innings. He
just completely mastered that league.
Speaker 1 (05:22):
But the big question, the shadow hanging over this whole deal,
is his time in MLB with the Pirates, which was
not good.
Speaker 2 (05:29):
And that's the gap the Blue Jays are betting they
can close his career. MLB ERA is five point eighty
six a WHP over one and a half. Yeah. The
leap you have to make from being dominant in the
KBO to just being competent in MLB is what makes
this such a fascinating gamble.
Speaker 1 (05:45):
You hear so many different comparisons for the KBO. Some
say it's like hi A, some say double A, and
then you hear others say it's closer to the majors.
How do you square that?
Speaker 2 (05:53):
The difference is really in the style of play. KBO
hitters generally have less power, they're more focused on contact,
hitting high fastballs. Pitchers tend to rely more on off
speed stuff and command over just you know, pure velocity,
which is what dominates here. So a picture like Punts
who thrives over there, he's often out smarting hitters who
are a little less aggressive. That one point eight to
(06:14):
nine ERA probably translates to something more like a four
point zero to four point three year ra in the majors.
The Jays are betting that his confidence and his improved
command will.
Speaker 1 (06:23):
Stick, and they're betting on a proven archetype. Right the
pitcher who goes overseas finds himself and comes back totally
transformed exactly.
Speaker 2 (06:31):
We've seen this blueprint work. Eric fed is the best
recent example, former first rounder struggled here, went to the
KBO and was amazing twenty wins two point zero zero ERA,
and came back to be a really effective big league arm.
Speaker 1 (06:43):
And then there's Meryl Kelly.
Speaker 2 (06:44):
Meryl Kelly a perfect example. He went forty eight and
thirty two over four years in Korea. Came back and
became the super reliable, valuable starter for the Diamondbacks, pitched
them deep into the playoffs in twenty twenty three.
Speaker 1 (06:55):
Can't forget Miles Micholas too, found his game in Japan,
came back to the Cardinals and became All Star. The
Blue Jays are clearly buying into the specific type of
calculated risk.
Speaker 2 (07:04):
And look, if Ponce gives them, say, one hundred and
fifty innings with an ERA in the low fours for
the next three years, that thirty million dollar contract is
going to look like an absolute bargain.
Speaker 1 (07:14):
So with these two big additions, the Blue Jays rotation
is just I mean, it looks absolutely stacked on paper.
Speaker 2 (07:20):
It really does. You're looking at a projected rotation of Cees,
Trey Y Savage, Kevin Gosman, Shane Bieber and now Ponce.
And the depth is what's really impressive. They've still got
Jose Burrios and er Klauer, who was solid in that
swing roll last year.
Speaker 1 (07:33):
That's seven deep with legitimate starters, which is.
Speaker 2 (07:37):
Critical in modern baseball, especially after a long playoff run
that really tacks their arms last year. You can never have.
Speaker 1 (07:42):
Enough pitching, but that surplus that depth creates a bit
of a financial problem, doesn't it. Specifically with Jose.
Speaker 2 (07:49):
Burrios, it absolutely does. Brios is owed eighteen million dollars
next season, and he hasn't opt out after twenty twenty six.
But given that his strikeout rate has been under twenty
percent for two years in a row, there's almost no
chance he ops out of the two years and forty
eight million dollars left on that deal.
Speaker 1 (08:05):
So if Toronto wants to clear some salary maybe to
help re sign a guy like Bobaschett, Burrio seems like
the most logical guy to trade.
Speaker 2 (08:12):
He is, but moving him is going to require some,
let's say, uncomfortable financial decisions. It's going to be tough
to find a team willing to take on that full
eighteen million dollars for a picture whose velocity is ticking down.
Speaker 1 (08:27):
So Toronto would have to eat some of that money.
Speaker 2 (08:29):
They almost certainly have to pay down a good chunk
of that eighteen million dollars he's owed next year, or
maybe take back another contract that's a little bit underwater
in return.
Speaker 1 (08:37):
Well wait, if they have to pay say, eight million
dollars just to move him, are they really saving enough
money to make a difference. Is a ten million dollars
savings enough to get them in on another big free
agent or are they just better off keeping him as
premium depth.
Speaker 2 (08:52):
That is the exact question their front office is wrestling
with right now. Saving ten million in AAV might not
be enough to drastically change their plans, but what it
does give you is flexibility. You can turn that rotation
spot into maybe a bat you need or a key
bullpen arm through a trade.
Speaker 1 (09:09):
So it's a move they only make if the right
deal comes along.
Speaker 2 (09:11):
Right, they'd have to find a team, maybe a team
like the Orioles, that desperately needs reliable innings that's willing
to take on most of that salary without Toronto having
to pay it all down. It's a tricky situation.
Speaker 1 (09:23):
Okay, let's pivot from all that pitching to the other
side of the ball. The market for power hitters has
been much quieter. The biggest bat still out there is
Kyle Schwarber, the DH who just finished second in the
NLMVP voting.
Speaker 2 (09:35):
The Schwarber situation is such a perfect case study. You
have this tension between a team's clear need, a player's
local connection and just severe budget limitations and it's all
focused on the Cincinnati Reds.
Speaker 1 (09:48):
Yeah, Schwarber's from Middletown, Ohio. The emotional connection is obvious,
but more than that, the fit on the field is
just perfect. The Reds need that scary bat in the
middle of their lineup and DH is their most glaring hole.
Speaker 2 (10:00):
Well, the money is the huge, huge hurdle. The Reds
have always been incredibly conservative with free agent spending. There
are two largest deals ever are matching four year, sixty
four million dollar contracts.
Speaker 1 (10:11):
So their record for average annual value their AAV is
only sixteen million dollars.
Speaker 2 (10:17):
Exactly, and Schwarberz is going to get a guarantee well
over one hundred million dollars. He could command thirty million
dollars a year, maybe more. He could literally require double
Cincinnati's all time record AAV.
Speaker 1 (10:29):
It just feels impossible for the Reds unless they get really,
really creative. And the rumor is that they're looking at
deferred money as a potential solution.
Speaker 2 (10:36):
This is the financial trick that could make it all work.
Deferred money is money that's paid to the player after
the contract is over, and the Reds have views this
before with guys like Ken Griffey Junior and Bronson Royo.
Speaker 1 (10:48):
So how does that actually help them with the payroll hit?
Right now, It's.
Speaker 2 (10:51):
All about how the competitive balance tax, the loaxury tax
is calculated. Deferred money is discounted based on its present value.
So if the Reds give him and let's say, a
four year, one hundred million dollar deal, but they defer
forty million dollars of it to be paid out starting
in twenty thirty.
Speaker 1 (11:06):
The immediate AAV goes way.
Speaker 2 (11:08):
Down, way down. Instead of a twenty five million dollar
AAV for luxury tax purposes, they could realistically get it
down to maybe fifteen million dollars a year through twenty
twenty nine.
Speaker 1 (11:17):
Which is right in their historical comfort zone exactly.
Speaker 2 (11:21):
Schwarber gets his big nine figure guarantee, his security, and
the Reds get their superstar bat without blowing up their budget.
Right now, it's a clever move for a small market
team trying to play with the big boys.
Speaker 1 (11:32):
But if the Reds can't pull it off, Schwarber has
plenty of other options.
Speaker 2 (11:36):
Oh for sure, the Red Sox are definitely in they
need a big middle of the order bat. After getting
Sunny Gray, the Orioles want more power, the Giants, the Mets.
He's got a lot of suitors. The feeling is he'll
probably sign by the end of the winter meetings.
Speaker 1 (11:51):
So beyond Schwarber, what other big names are still out there?
Speaker 2 (11:54):
Well, you still got a couple of star short stops waiting. Bobaschett,
whose future in Toronto is a little murky with all
their spending, and Hassan Kim who's waiting for the market
to develop.
Speaker 1 (12:04):
And then there's the whole Alex Bregman situation, which is
fascinating because of how many different teams he could fit on.
Speaker 2 (12:10):
He's such an interesting piece. He's still seen as a
perfect fit for the Yankees. He gives them production, he
can play third, he can fill in it short. But
the price has always been the issue for the Yankees,
who've been a little more disciplined lately.
Speaker 1 (12:21):
And the Red Sox are in on him too.
Speaker 2 (12:23):
Mm hmm. They got their picture and now they're focused
on a right handed bat for the middle of the order,
so they're reportedly looking at both Bregman and maybe even
Pete Alonzo depending on how the prices shake out.
Speaker 1 (12:33):
So while the big markets fight over the superstars, you
have teams like the Washington Nationals who are playing a
different game, looking at that next tier of free agents.
Speaker 2 (12:40):
That's right. They see the slow market as an opportunity.
If guys like Kyle Tucker are still unsigned in January,
the Nationals can make some smart, calculated moves on players
like Ryan O'Hearn, Eugenio Suarez, maybe a pitcher like Lucas
Gilito or Zach Eflin.
Speaker 1 (12:56):
And there's a really interesting rumor about a specific strategy
they might use for a high value pitcher like Michael King.
Speaker 2 (13:02):
Yeah that's pretty clever. Yeah. So King is projected to
get a big deal, maybe four years eighty eight million
dollars from a contender, but if that long term market
doesn't develop for.
Speaker 1 (13:13):
Him, the Nats could pounce with a different kind of offer.
Speaker 2 (13:15):
Exactly, They could offer a short term, high AAV deal.
The scenario being talked about is two years fifty two
million dollars, but with an opt out after year one.
Speaker 1 (13:26):
Wow, that's a huge AAV twenty six million a year.
What's in it for the Nats?
Speaker 2 (13:31):
Well, King gets a massive payday right now, and he
gets to try free agency again next winter. If you
pitch as well, for the Nationals, they either get a
frontline starter for two years to help them contend, or
it is the key part. If they're not in the race,
they can flip them at the trade deadline for a
huge package of prospects.
Speaker 1 (13:49):
So it turns a slow market into a chance to
get a massive return on a short term investment.
Speaker 2 (13:54):
It's a really smart, calculated risk. It's a way for
a rebuilding team to leverage its financial flexibility for long
term gain.
Speaker 1 (14:02):
Let's zoom out a bit. We keep talking about money,
payroll risk. How much of all this you know? The
Jay's spending, the Reds creativity is being driven by the
fact that the next collective bargaining agreement is coming up
in twenty twenty seven.
Speaker 2 (14:14):
I think it's influencing almost everything. There's a theory that
some of the teams that have been historically cheap, let's.
Speaker 1 (14:20):
Say the Marlins with their sixty seven million dollars payroll
last year, or the Pirates at eighty eight million dollars.
Speaker 2 (14:27):
Exactly those teams. The theory is that they are spending now,
or at least exploring spending specifically to influence those CBA talks.
Speaker 1 (14:37):
Why do they have to prove they're willing to spend
right now.
Speaker 2 (14:39):
It's all tied to the push for centralized broadcast revenue
and revised revenue sharing. The big market teams your Dodgers
in Red Sox, they've said they're willing to support pooling
that TV money, which would be a huge help to
the smaller markets.
Speaker 1 (14:54):
But there's a catch.
Speaker 2 (14:55):
There's a big catch. They'll only do it if the
small market owners prove they're actually committed to trying to win,
to putting a good product on the field.
Speaker 1 (15:02):
In other words, they don't want to just be handing
money to owners who are going to pocket it instead
of investing in the team.
Speaker 2 (15:08):
Precisely, so, this spending we're seeing, or at least the
rumors of spending, it's a strategic move. Its owners posturing
to show the big markets, hey, we're serious before they
all get to the negotiating table in twenty twenty seven.
Speaker 1 (15:20):
An essential part of that whole debate is the salary
floor versus a salary cap.
Speaker 2 (15:24):
Right. Hal Steinbrenner of the Yankees has said he supports
a minimum payroll a salary floor, but he wants it
tied to a hard salary cap. And that's the absolute
sticking point.
Speaker 1 (15:35):
Because the smaller teams are terrified of getting stuck with
a bad long term contract.
Speaker 2 (15:39):
They're terrified of it. Think about the deals for Chris
Bryant or Anthony Rendon. Those contracts can sink a small
market team for years if the player gets hurt or declines.
So they want a max contract length, maybe four or
five years, so that a player always has some trade
value if they need to rebuild.
Speaker 1 (15:57):
And when you talk about those huge, risky long term
you have to talk about the ultimate example from last season,
Wan Soto's fifteen years, seven hundred and sixty five million
dollar contract.
Speaker 2 (16:07):
The Soto deal is the benchmark. It is the ultimate
big Boys table gamble. And statistically, I mean Soto's an
absolute monster. His career on base percentage zo point four
to one seven. He averages one hundred and thirty two
walks a year. It's incredible.
Speaker 1 (16:19):
But you still hear the criticism from some fans and
even some owners that they want guys who swing the
damn lumber.
Speaker 2 (16:24):
They want hits, not just walks. Sodo's career high in
hits is only one hundred and sixty six. You compare
that to a guy like Bobby Witt junior, who's averaged
one hundred ninety one hits over the last three seasons.
Speaker 1 (16:34):
Now, analytically we know that Obp is probably more valuable.
Speaker 2 (16:37):
Oh for sure, Soto's walk rate is lethal, but there's
still this emotional preference for that traditional two hundred hit guy,
especially when an owner is thinking about spending three quarters
of a billion dollars. The success or failure of that
Sodo contract is this huge cloud hanging over every major
negotiation this winter.
Speaker 1 (16:55):
It sets the entire psychological bar for what kind of
risk teams are willing to take.
Speaker 2 (17:00):
It absolutely does.
Speaker 1 (17:01):
Okay, let's shish over to the trade market. There are
a few names being thrown around that could just fundamentally
change the league. And it all starts with the biggest
potential blockbuster, Detroit Tigers ace Terik Scuoball.
Speaker 2 (17:12):
Schooble's probably the single best trade asset available. He's a
two time reigning ALC Young Winner, and he's under team
control through twenty twenty six, and the extension talks have
apparently gone nowhere.
Speaker 1 (17:24):
So despite the Tigers saying, you know, he's not going anywhere,
the speculation is running wild.
Speaker 2 (17:29):
Well, when you have a pitcher that good. The contenders
are always going to be calling the Dodgers, even after
winning back to Backworld Series. They're always looking to get better.
They're definitely linked to him, But the.
Speaker 1 (17:40):
Cubs are the team you here mentioned most often.
Speaker 2 (17:43):
Yeah, a lot of insiders think the Cubs of the
prime landing spot for him if he does get moved.
Speaker 1 (17:47):
So why would the Tigers even think about moving a
two time cy Young winner even if the extension talks
have stalled.
Speaker 2 (17:54):
It's all about the return. They could get a massive,
massive haul of prospects for him, only controllable for two
more seasons, the Tigers could basically restock their entire farm
system for the next five years with one trade.
Speaker 1 (18:07):
It's that classic trade off immediate dominance for long term
security exactly.
Speaker 2 (18:12):
And the price to get him would be enormous.
Speaker 1 (18:15):
What kind of package are we talking about here? For
two years of a picture like that?
Speaker 2 (18:19):
The rumored package from the Cubs would be something like
catcher Moyses, Bilesto's right hander Jackson Wiggins, outfielder Kevin al Cantera,
and another writery, Javier as'ad That is four very highly
regarded young players.
Speaker 1 (18:35):
And what does giving up those specific guys mean for
the Cub's future.
Speaker 2 (18:39):
It's a huge price. Losing al Kantara and Blestros means
you're sacrificing two potential cornerstone pieces of your next core.
You're trading future potential for immediate elite win now performance.
It's a deal that would make them World Series favorites
right away, but it definitely shortens their long term contention window.
Speaker 1 (18:58):
Speaking of the Dodgers, they won it all again, but
they did it despite some pretty clear holes in their
bullpen late in games.
Speaker 2 (19:05):
Right, they're looking for another high leverage guy for the
eighth or ninth inning. They have expensive options like Tanner Scott,
and they even use Roki Sasaki as a weapon out
of the pen in the playoffs, but they need to
solidify that group for the long haul of the regular season.
Speaker 1 (19:19):
And that search for perfection has led to some pretty
surprising rumors, the idea that the Dodgers might actually trade
one of their starters, specifically Tyler Glasnow.
Speaker 2 (19:27):
Yeah, this one is interesting. Moving Glasnow, who's owed thirty
two point five million dollars over the next two years.
It feels counterintuitive.
Speaker 1 (19:35):
He's so talented, so why would the World Series champs
even consider it.
Speaker 2 (19:39):
It's all about creative flexibility. If they move Glasno's salary,
it frees up the money to go get another impact player,
maybe an outfielder like Stephen Kwan. Or they could use
Glass Now as the centerpiece of a deal to get
an even better starter like Scoble.
Speaker 1 (19:53):
And their rotation is still deep enough to handle it.
Speaker 2 (19:56):
On paper, Yeah, they'd still have Otani, Yamamoto, Snell, Emmett, Chehan,
and Sasaki. So moving glass Now, while it would hurt,
is plausible if it makes the overall roster better.
Speaker 1 (20:08):
And that brings us to Blake Snell, who's now a Dodger,
but his old contract is still causing major headaches for
his former team, the Giants.
Speaker 2 (20:16):
This is just a fantastic piece of financial irony. The
Giants are reportedly really hesitant to offer big contracts with
opt outs or deferred money this offseason, and it's all
because of their experience with Snell.
Speaker 1 (20:27):
They're still paying him, aren't they.
Speaker 2 (20:29):
They are. They still have to pay him seventeen million
dollars in deferred signing bonus money on January fifteenth, even
though he's now pitching for their biggest rival, and just
help the Dodgers win the World Series. It's a really
harsh lesson in how deferred money can come back to
bite you.
Speaker 1 (20:43):
Ouch. Okay, Let's look at the position player trademarket. It
starts with the Red Sox, who suddenly have a very
crowded outfield now that Roman Anthony has broken out, and
that makes Jared Duran pretty expendable.
Speaker 2 (20:55):
Duran's an interesting case. He just had a career best
twenty five homers and twenty twenty five but his trade
value is a little complicated because his walk rate just
it cratered. He strikes out a ton, But that power
and speed combination is still really attractive to teams that
need offense, and.
Speaker 1 (21:12):
There are a couple of really interesting trade proposals out
there for him. Let's start with the Seattle Mariners.
Speaker 2 (21:18):
The Mariners need a bat. Duran would be a huge
upgrade over trying to re sign Eugenio Suarez Jorge Polanco.
You could slot him in right ahead of Julio Rodriguez
and Cal Rawley, and that lineup suddenly looks a lot.
Speaker 1 (21:30):
Deeper and what would it cost them.
Speaker 2 (21:33):
Seattle might be able to get him with prospects like
Cole Young or Michael Royo without how to give up
their top guy, cold Emerson. It's a deal that makes
a lot of sense for them.
Speaker 1 (21:41):
The other proposal is more of a one for one
swap Duran to the Phillies for Alec Bohm.
Speaker 2 (21:45):
This is the kind of creative trade that's so fun
to think about. The Phillies get Duran, which solves their
need for a center fielder with some speed and pop,
and the Red Sox get Alec Bohm, a steady, capable
third baseman who fits their current ross perfectly.
Speaker 1 (22:00):
And that whole idea is fueled by the rumor that
Boehm is as good as gone if the Phillies managed
to sign Alex Bregman.
Speaker 2 (22:08):
That's exactly right. Bowm only makes ten million dollars next year,
so he's very easy to move. If they land Brigmant,
that's another superstar to go with Harper and Turner. Bowem
becomes the obvious odd man out and they can use
him as a trade chip to fill their hole in
center field.
Speaker 1 (22:23):
Elsewhere, you've got the Cardinals, whose rebuild seems to be
pushing Wilson Contreras toward waving his no trade clause.
Speaker 2 (22:29):
Yeah, he's reportedly more open to a move now they've
already traded Sunny Gray. The rebuild is on, and this
is a big shift. Just a few months ago, analysts
were saying there was only about a fifteen percent chance
he'd get moved. If he agrees to a trade, he
instantly becomes the best catcher available on the market.
Speaker 1 (22:45):
And the Nationals are listening on their young lefty Mackenzie Gore.
Speaker 2 (22:49):
They're listening, but they're not actively shopping him. Gore is
only twenty six. He has a ton of upside. The
Nationals aren't going to move him unless they get a
particularly strong proposal. Is going to give away years of
control for a middling return.
Speaker 1 (23:03):
Before we move on, we have to talk about the
weirdest rumor of the off season so far, the Pittsburgh
Pirates being linked to Nick Castianos.
Speaker 2 (23:10):
This one just makes absolutely no sense none. Castianos has
owed twenty million dollars in the last year of his deal.
He was awful in twenty twenty five, a negative f
war a WRC plus of ninety, which is ten percent
below league average. The Phillies are desperate to get rid of.
Speaker 1 (23:27):
Him because of the contract, the lack of production, and
his defense.
Speaker 2 (23:30):
His awful defense, as sources call it. He is a
full time DH at this point in his career, so
why on earth would the Pirates even consider this. He'd
be a significant downgrade from Andrew McCutcheon.
Speaker 1 (23:40):
So it's just spending money to spend money.
Speaker 2 (23:42):
That's what it looks like. Even if the Phillies paid
down his contract, It's a move that feels like a
huge mistake for a team like Pittsburgh, which needs to
be smart about how it adds payroll, not just throwing
money at declining big name players.
Speaker 1 (23:54):
Let's turn to the bullpen. The Mets are making a
really aggressive push to build a Super Bowl and it
started with them signing Devin Williams.
Speaker 2 (24:02):
Mm hmm a three year, fifty one million dollar contract.
Williams has eighty six career saves, He's a legitimate closer.
That one move instantly takes the back end of their
bullpen from a weakness to a major strength.
Speaker 1 (24:15):
But according to Ken Rosenthal, they shouldn't stop there. He's
saying the Mets need to push hard to re sign
Edwin Diaz.
Speaker 2 (24:21):
The whole super bullpen idea is built on that. Pairing
Williams in the eighth inning Dz in the ninth that
would be the most feared one two punch in all
of baseball. And Diaz was incredible in twenty twenty five,
a one point sixty three ERA ninety eight strikeouts, just
elite stuff.
Speaker 1 (24:36):
So if the plan is that clear, what's the hold
up on bringing Diaz back.
Speaker 2 (24:39):
It's all about the contract length. Diaz's camp is looking
for a five year deal, but the Mets are really
hesitant to give more than three years to a closer
who's about to turn thirty two. That's usually when you
start to see some decline, and.
Speaker 1 (24:51):
Having Williams already signed gives them some leverage.
Speaker 2 (24:54):
It gives them a great fallback option. But the financial
risk of a five year deal for any reliever, even
one as good as Diz, is just really, really significant.
Speaker 1 (25:04):
The Baltimore Orioles also made a big move for their bullpens,
signing Ryan Helsley to a two year, twenty eight million
dollar deal, But this one feels like a big risk
reward play.
Speaker 2 (25:14):
It is because Hellsley has been two completely different pitchers lately.
With the Cardinals from twenty twenty two to twenty twenty five,
he was a phenomenal closer. But then he got traded
to the Mets mid season, and he just fell apart
a seven point two zero era, a one point eight
zero whip in twenty innings.
Speaker 1 (25:31):
So the Orioles are betting twenty eight million dollars that
their coaches can fix him.
Speaker 2 (25:35):
They're betting they can get the Cardinals version back.
Speaker 1 (25:37):
Let's do a real deep dive here on why he
struggled so much. He said his stuff looked fine on
the Mets model, So what actually went wrong?
Speaker 2 (25:44):
This is a perfect example of how tiny mechanical changes
can completely derail an elite pitcher. Helsley himself said that
even though his velocity was still high, he was being
really predictable in certain counts. He was basically tipping his pitches.
Speaker 1 (25:58):
Giving hitters double confirmation, as he put it. But it
was more than that, right, There was a physical change too.
Speaker 2 (26:03):
There was His average velocity only dropped a little bit
from ninety nine point six down to ninety nine point three,
but his average arm angle climbed dramatically from around fifty
two degrees up to sixty two degrees.
Speaker 1 (26:14):
Wow, that's a ten degree jump. Why does that matter
so much if he's still throwing ninety nine because.
Speaker 2 (26:19):
A fastballs deception comes from its rise, its induced vertical break,
and Asley has great vertical break about eighteen inches, but
that higher, more vertical arm angle basically negated the deception.
The pitch was easier for hitters to see out of
his hand.
Speaker 1 (26:34):
So even though the movement was a lead, it wasn't
as effective exactly.
Speaker 2 (26:38):
The data proves it. Hitters lug points sixty sixty seven
against his four seamer. His whiff rate dropped all the
way to the twenty six percentile.
Speaker 1 (26:46):
So the Orioles are betting they can fix the tipping
and maybe get that arm slot back down a little.
Speaker 2 (26:50):
They're confident they can fix the sequencing and the predictability. Yeah,
and if they can unlock that top tier arm again,
a two year deal with an opt out is an
absolute steal for team trying to win a championship.
Speaker 1 (27:02):
We've had a few other pitching moves to touch on.
Sonny Gray is now with the Red Sox.
Speaker 2 (27:06):
M Gray is thirty six. The Cardinals traded him to
Boston to give them some stability in the middle of
that rotation. He's a reliable that won fourteen games last year.
The only real concern was his fate in the second
half of twenty twenty five. He had a rough five
point four or five ERA after.
Speaker 1 (27:22):
The All Star break, but the Red Sox are betting
he can bounce back.
Speaker 2 (27:25):
He has a long history of doing just that. He
should be a solid inning zetter for them.
Speaker 1 (27:30):
The Angels also made a couple of interesting moves, bringing
in Alc Minoa and Grayson Rodriguez.
Speaker 2 (27:35):
The Minoa signing is a low risk, high reward deal.
They're hoping he can find that all star form he
had early in his career. The Rodriguez trade is more intriguing.
They got him from the Orioles for Taylor Ward.
Speaker 1 (27:46):
Rodriguez was a huge prospect, but he missed all of
twenty twenty five with elbow issues.
Speaker 2 (27:51):
Right, it's a risk, but for an Angels team that's
desperate for starting pitching, getting a guy with his kind
of ceiling is a risk worth taking, even if it
meant giving up a rollable bat like Ward.
Speaker 1 (28:01):
And finally, the Giants are looking for bullpen help, which
brings us to their Rule five prospect Trevor McDonald.
Speaker 2 (28:07):
The Giants need arms badly. McDonald had a tiny but
impressive sample size in the Major's in September, and what
really stood out was his insane reliance on his curveball.
He threw it over fifty percent of the time.
Speaker 1 (28:19):
Fifty percent for a starter that seems completely unsustainable.
Speaker 2 (28:24):
It is the best curveball starters in the league. Guys
like Framber Valdez or Aaron Nola, they use it maybe
thirty thirty five percent of the time. McDonald's high usage
plus a fastball that's a bit underpowered, it just screams reliever.
Speaker 1 (28:36):
So his future is definitely in the bullpen almost certainly.
Speaker 2 (28:39):
That curveball sinker mix could play really well in short bursts.
And because of his Rule five status, the Giants have
to keep him on the big league roster, so they'll
be grooming him as a multi inning reliever for twenty.
Speaker 1 (28:50):
Twenty six and one last international note. The Astro is
also one shopping overseas, signing Ryan Weiss, another pitcher from
the KBO. The pipeline is officially wide open.
Speaker 2 (29:00):
It's clearly as strategy teams are using to find value.
Speaker 1 (29:02):
Now, Okay, we've covered the moves, but sometimes the most
interesting stories are in the numbers that are hiding in
plain sight. And I want to get into some really
specific deep cut data about a catastrophic flaw the Cincinnati
Reds had last year.
Speaker 2 (29:18):
This is a great one. It just exposes a complete
failure in situational hitting and plate discipline. The Reds went
zero and six on the road in extra innings last season.
Speaker 1 (29:27):
But it's worse than that. In five of those six losses,
they failed to score a single run with the free
runner on second base to start the inning. It's staggering.
They played nine total extra innings on the road. The
automatic runner scored only one time, and that was on
a bunt and a throwing air.
Speaker 2 (29:43):
It's just a total indictment of their inability to execute
fundamentals when the pressure's on. They only got the runner
to third base three times in nine tries. Their young
guys were totally exposed. Ellie de la Cruz led off
three of those innings. His results two strikeouts and a PopOut,
all on pitches he chased out of the.
Speaker 1 (30:00):
Zone, and the overall whiff rate in those moments tells
the whole story.
Speaker 2 (30:04):
The whiff rate in extra innings was thirty two point
six percent. That would have been the worst in all
of Major League Baseball for the entire season, they saw
seventy two pitches right down the middle of the plate
and only six of them resulted in hits.
Speaker 1 (30:15):
It just shows a huge organizational failure to lock in
and focus their approach when the game is on the line, and.
Speaker 2 (30:21):
That leads right into the great philosophical baseball debate to
bunt or not to bunt? When you are failing that badly,
do you have to stop trying for the big inning
and just play for one run.
Speaker 1 (30:32):
It's a tough question. In today's game.
Speaker 2 (30:34):
It is the Reds showed bunt seven times in those situations,
and it worked three times. When your offense is that inept,
the argument for just conservatively bunting the runner to third
and hoping for a sac fly becomes a lot more compelling.
The new manager, Terry Francona, he has to fix this
in spring training, all.
Speaker 1 (30:51):
Right, let's switch from strategy to pure drama. Sunny Gray
did not go quietly after being traded from the Cardinals
to the rival Red Sox.
Speaker 2 (31:00):
Oh, he did not. That trade was basically like handing
him a megaphone to air all his grievances about his
time in New York. His comments were pretty shocking, He
said he never wanted to go there New York in
the first.
Speaker 1 (31:11):
Place, which is just an unbelievable reversal from what he
said when the Yankees first traded for him back in
twenty seventeen. He said he couldn't be happier.
Speaker 2 (31:19):
The change in tone just shows how much of a
bad fit it was psychologically. He completely embraced the rivalry
when he got to Boston. He said, it's easy for
me to go to a place where it's easy to
hate the Yankees. I like the challenge. He made it
clear he just felt stifled in New York, and.
Speaker 1 (31:36):
His performance there really backs up that feeling.
Speaker 2 (31:38):
It does. His numbers with the Yankees were easily the
worst of his career, a four point five one, one
point four to two wh FP. He's clearly betting that
by getting out of that environment and being allowed to
be himself, he can get back to being the picture
he was everywhere else.
Speaker 1 (31:52):
Okay, finally, let's get to the Contemporary era Hall of
Fame ballot. The results are coming at the Winter meetings,
and while it always sparks a ton of debate, it's
a tough one.
Speaker 2 (32:03):
This is for players whose careers ended after nineteen eighty
and you've got this mix of guys who probably deserved
to be in and then these borderline cases who are
caught up in the whole steroid era mess.
Speaker 1 (32:13):
Let's start with the guys who are back on the ballot,
the front runners, Don Mattingly and Dale Murphy.
Speaker 2 (32:18):
Maddingly probably has the best shot. He got fifty percent
of the vote last time. His case is all about
his incredible peak with the Yankees nineteen eighty five MVP
runner up in eighty six nine Gold Gloves. The challenge
is he still needs to convince half the committee that
voted against him to change their minds.
Speaker 1 (32:35):
And Dale Murphy.
Speaker 2 (32:36):
Murphy's got a similar profile to Maddingly beloved guy really
high peak, but a shorter run of dominance. A lot
of people think they'll both get serious consideration because they
were clean players and icons of their era.
Speaker 1 (32:48):
Now for the newcomers with strong cases, Let's start with
Carlos Delgado.
Speaker 2 (32:52):
Delgado is a guy who gets overlooked a lot. He
was a terrifying slugger, and crucially, he was never linked
to steroids. He hit twenty four more homers for thirteen
straight seasons, finished with four hundred and seventy three career
home runs.
Speaker 1 (33:05):
And what about his advanced stats his ops plus.
Speaker 2 (33:08):
His career ops plus is one thirty eight, which puts
him right there with guys like Reggie Jackson who was
one hundred and thirty nine and Alex Rodriguezo one hundred
and forty. Statistically, Delgado has a very very strong case.
He's exactly the kind of player the committee should be
taking a closer look at.
Speaker 1 (33:22):
What about Jeff Kent.
Speaker 2 (33:24):
Kent is a true borderline case. His career war is
fifty five point four. He had great power for a
second baseman, but he was a notoriously bad defender. To
put that war in context, Ryan Sandberg was at sixty
eight point one, Roberto Lamar was at sixty seven point one.
Kent is a clear step below the Hall of Fame
standard at his position.
Speaker 1 (33:43):
And Fernando Venezuela is the real wild card this year.
Speaker 2 (33:45):
His case is almost entirely about his cultural impact, which
was just monumental. Fernando Mania changed the game's global appeal.
Many people feel he deserves to be for that reason alone,
but this committee usually struggles with that kind of nuance.
They prefer the hard numbers.
Speaker 1 (34:00):
And Finally, you have the most difficult cases, the guys
from the steroid era, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens and Gary Sheffield.
Speaker 2 (34:09):
Bonds and Clemens are statistically two of the greatest to
ever play, but they're forever tied to steroid used. They've
never shown any remorse. It's just highly unlikely this committee
is going to vote them. Man. They got almost no
support from the Veterans Committee.
Speaker 1 (34:23):
In twenty twenty three and Sheffield.
Speaker 2 (34:25):
Sheffield's case is tricky. He hit five hundred and nine
home runs, but he was also linked to steroids, and
maybe just as importantly, he was an absolutely atrocious fielder.
Some people argue his case would be borderline even without
the steroid connection. He's not expected to get much support either,
So a.
Speaker 1 (34:42):
Really complex group of players. The results from the Winter
meetings are definitely going to be a huge topic of conversation,
no doubt about it. So we've covered a ton of
ground today. The Blue Jays massive spending spree, the tension
in the market for bats as teams like the Reds
get creative, and the big trade chips like Scooball and
Duran who could still move.
Speaker 2 (35:00):
What really stands out from all this is the sheer
amount of calculated risk that teams are taking high leverage
gambles on volatile arms like Pons and Hellsley, all of
it happening under the shadow of those twenty twenty seven
CBA negotiations.
Speaker 1 (35:13):
The entire market is being driven by teams trying to
manage spending constraints, whether they're real or just perceived, all
with an eye on that next labor battle.
Speaker 2 (35:22):
So the big question for you, the listener, as you
watch all this unfold, is this, when every single move
is being viewed through the lens of CBA leverage and
short term risk, are the economics of the game pushing
every team, even the normally cautious ones, into making these
huge gambles, gambles that could completely destabilize them if that
twenty twenty seven agreement doesn't fundamentally change the financial rules
(35:43):
of the game. That's the real high stake strategy we're
all watching play out right now.
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