July 30, 2025 • 20 mins
Join Joe Pisapia and Terrell Furman Jr. as they break down everything you need to know before placing your NFL preseason wagers!
Timestamps: (May be off due to ads)
Intro - 0:00:00
Historical Preseason Trends - 0:00:50
Sharp AI at BettingPros - 0:05:03
QB Rotation and Betting Theory - 0:05:33
Sides, Public Fades, and Underdog Strategy - 0:09:23
BettingPros App - 0:13:36
Betting Strategies + Favorite Preseason and Futures Bets - 0:14:14
Outro - 0:19:45
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. It's time to place
your bets. This be Joey P Joe Pisapia, and this
is VP NFL. And before you know it, the regular
season will be upon us and we will be cashing
some tickets. But there's still preseason football to talk about.
It hasn't quite begun yet, probably just days away from
actually recording. This is when we're going to actually have
(00:21):
some preseason football. Does it matter sort of kind of
only to the players where it really matters to but
Terrell Furman Junior and I are going to try to
help you understand a little bit more about the theory
behind preseason NFL betting, some ways to make some money,
and some approaches you can take. Before we get going today,
don't forget to subscribe to the Betting Pros channel. Drop
(00:41):
your comments below. We love hearing from all of you,
and we're trying to get to one hundred thousand subscribers
this year. We can do it with your help, So
let's get on that right now. Hit that subscribe button, Terrell.
So let's talk in the opening here a little bit
about preseason laying out the structure here a little bit
in terms of how we're approaching it. Historical trends. I
know there's some things that we've you know, taken for
(01:01):
granted over the years, like the Baltimore Ravens never dropping
any preseason games, do home advantages exist against the spread,
the situations like that. So when you're looking at historical
data and trying to get kind of an overall picture
and some trends, what stands out to you the most
in terms of the meta when it comes to preseason
(01:21):
NFL betting.
Speaker 2 (01:22):
Well, it's really two that I'm really really locked in on.
I'm constantly looking, like trying to figure out, Hey it
is unders are thing? First half? Unders?
Speaker 3 (01:32):
Is it?
Speaker 2 (01:32):
Overs? Is it? I'm looking for all this stuff. The
first thing is the coaches trends are just money man, Like,
come on, jar Harball went through like, what was it,
a four year stretch not losing a preseason game like
that is ridiculous. And that's that's coaching. That's saying, hey,
we're taking this series. We're going out here trying to
win the game. It doesn't matter if it's preseason. And
(01:53):
it also coincides with the fact that John Harball teams
typically have fast starts in the regular season, Like, that's
just how he coaches up his team. So harpball, for
sure is one he's at like some seventy five percent
in the preseason. Now you got Mike Tomlin, you know
that's my guy. I'm gonna tell you about Mike t
every single show, Joe, every shot.
Speaker 1 (02:12):
I love Mike Tomlin. I just think that the uh,
what they got going there is just in a bad direction. Hey, look, man,
I love Bill Belichick. I said the same thing when
Belichick was at the end of his days. Sometimes that
stuff happens. But to your point, Nah, I don't think
it's even longer than you realize. Seven twenty four game
win streak that existed there for the Ravens. That's pretty amazing.
Twenty four games. I mean, that's absurd. But you're also
(02:33):
hearing some different trends too, because you're hearing like Zach
Taylor talking about, Hey, we're gonna play Joe Burrow Moore
in preseason this year because we felt like we get
off to slow starts last couple of years. We're trying
to avoid that. I think those little nuggets matter too.
When you hear coaches talk about those sort of things,
especially with the starting quarterbacks.
Speaker 2 (02:50):
Yeah. Absolutely, and maybe it's something where you're like, Okay,
maybe they can get out to a hot start first
half in the preseason, like you're gonna get a couple
of good drives. They want to showcase the offense. They
probably want to get a lot a lot of things going.
I think it was last year that Aaron Rodgers played
the preseason the first time in his career, Like, I mean,
it didn't work out for him, so will hopefully Joe
(03:11):
Burrow doesn't get anything like that. But yeah, I'm really
deep into the coaches. Mike Tomlin at some sixty percent
in the preseason and then also fading those coaches like
Kevin McConnell's like two and six in the preseason or
something like that, He's near twenty five percent. Dan Quinn
in multiple different locations hasn't been good in the preseason,
(03:33):
So that shows me that dan Quinn's teams just aren't
taking this serious. So he's a coach that I look
the fade as well. And then another trend that I'm
looking into Joe that I really really like and it
worked for me last year and I think the year
before that too, is the joint practices, and those teams
that have joint practices that week and then played the
preseason game, that game typically starts to go under because
(03:55):
they're putting all the effort and all the good football
and all the reps and all the physical into practices.
They're saying that those practices are way harder than the
actual preseason game, and things are actually the offense isn't going.
People might be beat up, might be slowed down, taking slightly,
moving slower, and so unders in those joint practices where
(04:17):
you played the joint practice and then you had the
game and taken the under there, that actually has been
pretty good.
Speaker 1 (04:22):
What about home versus road and travel scenarios too, is
or anything we can glean from that when we're talking
about trying to find an edge when it comes to
the preseason games.
Speaker 2 (04:31):
I haven't really seen it for me. I haven't really
got behind, Hey, this team has really been really really
good at home, and this one has been really really
good on the road. Per se. I think it's just
more of, hey, where's this team been practicing? Where have
they been located at? Where's this Because you know the Cowboys,
they're all the way out in California. Then you got
(04:52):
to go to Dallas play a game, so are you
factoring in that travel and all of that. But for
the most part, the home road thing really doesn't exist
for me.
Speaker 1 (05:00):
All right, let's switch gears here and talk a little
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Speaker 2 (05:33):
Terrell.
Speaker 1 (05:33):
Let's talk about the quarterbacks here for a second, because
there are instances, especially even we can look back to
last year, right, you saw JJ McCarthy after Sam Darnold
kind of you know, came out of the game. JJ
McCarthy coming in looking great, right, Unfortunately before the knee
injury happened. When we're looking here and the guys that
are getting limited reps a QB, but we either have
young quarterbacks behind them or proven veterans who are trying
(05:55):
to get reps. Is that a way to get an
edge in the preseason two? Because you know, especially situations
we have, like, for instance, it's very competitive in Cleveland
right now, right Is that a situation where you are
running two or running away from because of the quarterback play?
Speaker 3 (06:10):
No.
Speaker 2 (06:11):
I actually love a great quarterback competition. I love to
see a quarterback room where you don't know who the
second guy is. Everybody may know who the first guy is.
We're talking, we're recording this right before the Hall of
Fame game, and you know, Jared Goff is QB one,
there's no question, no doubt about that. But who's QB
(06:31):
two over there? Is it gonna be Hendon Hooker? Is
it gonna be Kyle Allen? Like who's gonna be the
guy that's gonna come up and be that second quarterback?
And so it's competitions like that all over. I mean,
the Saints just got to figure out who their guy
is in general, So the Saints are taking this very
very serious. So I may be looking into Kellen Moore's
team and seeing what they're doing in this preseason because
(06:54):
they really really gotta figure it out, so they're gonna
be giving their main quarterbacks a lot of the reps.
But I love to see a good quarterback competition, not
at just the QB one spot, but definitely that QB
two spot, and who's going to definitely lock in their
roster spot every single week as I'm dressing out.
Speaker 1 (07:09):
So when you see those situations right where there's either
quarterback dep or quarterback competition, does that portend a little
bit more potentially to you wanting to go for the
overs because you're talking about quarterbacks that really want to
push the football show off what they can do in
the offense. Because to me, it feels like that would
be a potential scenario, whereas some of these other ones
where it's just the regular number two guy that you
(07:31):
know kind of take for granted. We're just keeping him healthy,
we're just heading the football off trying not to get
hurt here because you know, we don't want to screw
up the depth shtart. But when it comes to battles,
that would mean to me at least that you would
be trying to again, you know, put some scores on
the board, trying to impress the coaching staff and the
general manager here to make sure that you have a
spot on this roster. So when you have those scenarios,
(07:52):
would you be pushing towards the actual overs as opposed
to the unders?
Speaker 2 (07:57):
I actually think it's a two way street because it
depends on who is the personnel. If you're sitting here
and you're looking, who was it, I think it was
the Carolina Panthers that had a quarterback battle going on
for who was behind Bryce Young And I think who
was it? Andy Dalton? And it was like, what was
(08:17):
my guy's name? Plumber over from Louisville or he was
from Louisville, Kentucky, something like that. He just wasn't any good.
He just wasn't good. He was turning the football over
all the time. And so like you have stuff like
that where you just don't have a good quarterback room.
New York Giants for sure ain't have no good quarterback room. So, yes,
there was a battle and they were going on and seeing, Hey,
who's gonna be the number two? Is it gonna be
(08:38):
Tommy Devido, Is it gonna be Drew Locke, is gonna
be this? Or is it gonna be that and it's horrible.
It's absolutely horrible and it doesn't look good. So I
think it's really just the personnel, because you have teams
who have had great QB rooms, like the Ravens who
had Tyler Huntley at the number two spot. They felt
good about that, and then they were going out and
rolling out different guys. At one point it was like
(09:00):
Trasmick Sorely that was getting some good burn for them
in the preseason because they just kept a good QB room.
So I think it depends on personnel and staff and
honestly the team.
Speaker 1 (09:09):
Yeah, I think it was Jack Plumber. Is that who
you're looking for?
Speaker 2 (09:12):
Jack Plumber?
Speaker 3 (09:13):
Yeah?
Speaker 1 (09:13):
Well, look good, good word of advice here on the show.
Probably don't invest too much in Jack Plumber, just saying
invest in a good plumber, yeah, because it's important in
your house. All right. Let's talk about the sides and
about the public here a little bit too, and the
potential for underdogs, because there are some teams, like you said,
that are bigger time teams like the Washington Commanders, have expectations.
(09:35):
Some other squads too, that are less appt to push
their players, are less app to really take these games seriously,
But you have some of these new coaches upstart situations
here where they are trying to prove themselves right away.
Are those opportunities there where you would say maybe you
were fading the public, because like, the public's on the commanders,
but you see a team like let's say the Carolina Panthers,
who really pressed forward last year towards the end of
(09:58):
the year, those scenario to me seem like there's potential.
Do you agree or disagree?
Speaker 2 (10:03):
Yeah? I think so too, Because for me and something
that is so violatile as the preseason, I think it's
really really hard for me to believe that the books
know what's gonna happen, and then the public also knows
what's gonna happen. Because when the books set a line
that I'm already like, okay, how are you even setting
this line? And then the public jumps all on one side,
(10:24):
I'm like, wait, how do you know that's one hundred
percent gonna be it? It's preseason now, I mean, of course,
the Baltimore Ravens and the Pittsburg Steelers, you just gotta
bet that, like you just know that's gonna happen. But
it's like some of the other games that I'm just like,
oh wait, how did everybody get to this one consensus?
And that's one thing that I like to do. I'll
definitely go for reverse line movement because in the preseason
(10:47):
there has been a trend of if the line moves
a point in the direction one way or another, that
that side has actually been the way to go. So
if the public is jumping on one side and it's
moving a point direction on the other side, and it's
already trend of if it moves the line moves a
certain way that that's pretty much how it ends up.
I'm like, oh wait, this becomes even more and more interesting.
(11:08):
And now I'm looking into that possibility. Okay, if this
team is gonna win, is what's gonna need to happen
for them to win? What kind of player is gonna
be able to go off? Looking through the team scouting
reports and looking through the beat reporters, the beat reporters
and all social media will tell you, Hey, these players
are the ones that you're not looking at that are
catching a lot of buzz and they're probably gonna be
(11:28):
playing in the third and fourth quarter of these games.
Speaker 1 (11:31):
Do you think those swings are too dramatic sometimes, like
when you get a late scratch in a game, or
they all they say so and so always gonna start today,
but unfortunately now it's actually not gonna be the case
because he's dealing with a hamstring issue or something like that.
Sometimes you see Vegas react or even overreact to that.
Are you somebody that you know is I guess is
the only way to put this is? Are you somebody
(11:52):
that has to kind of be waiting by your device
in order to see that in order to make sure
you're in on those moments? Or do you think it's
the Again, sometimes overrated in terms of how much the
lines might move depending on some of that late breaking news,
because we get a lot of it with these preseason
games too, especially we're told one thing on a Saturday
and then you get there Sunday and it's a difference.
Speaker 2 (12:13):
Yeah, oh absolutely. And I'm always into the team, team Reddit,
some'm in the team and spaces, communities all of that,
Like I'm really really locked in. I'm following because I
want to know what is this movement? If there's no noise,
no nothing, everything is quiet for a game and there's
a one point line move there's no injuries, there's no
(12:34):
QB update, there's no nothing, and it's just this random
line move. I'm like, oh, okay, that actually kind of
that's intriguing. Let me look into that a little bit more.
But if they're going out and they're automatically saying, oh,
the starting offense is going to get a quarter and
a half of work, starting offense is going to play
for the whole first half, people are jumping to play
that team automatically, and it doesn't always work like that.
(12:56):
Sometimes the starting offense is trying to figure it out
as well, and they're going into the game saying all right,
let's try this to see if it works. Let's try
that and see if it works. And then next thing
you know, turnovers are here, turnover there, and the other
team is getting to win. So I think all of that,
the line moves, all of that, the team reporting, and
maybe the overreaction underreaction, you can only take it with
(13:17):
a grain of salt and say, okay, let me look
into that more. Let me put some more analysis into that,
rather than just saying, oh, I see that happen.
Speaker 1 (13:24):
Let me bet it all right, Let's take a look
at some more strategy session here. I also we'll talk
a little bit about the preseason bets that maybe Terrell's
even in on already as we're starting to unfold. But
before we do, don't forget make sure you download the
Betting Pros app, whether it's iOS or Android, download it
sink your sportsbooks for free, and you can automatically track
(13:44):
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Easily monitor your bet performance by sport and by bet type,
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(14:05):
use that promo code Juice, baby, that's what you want
to use. The promo code is Juice, and activate your
trial on the upgrade screen right now for Betting Pros. Okay, Terrell,
Let's take a look right now at some of the
final strategies you have, philosophies you might have regarding this,
and then some favorite that's that you're already maybe potentially
looking at here in the preseason in the first couple weeks.
Speaker 2 (14:28):
All right, So I talked about the I look towards
the under in the games where they have joint practices.
That was really really good to me last year. I
felt really really good about it. It made sound logic
that hey, okay, we're getting really really physical here, and
so a lot of the starters, a lot of the
guys that play meaningful roles that are gonna be on
(14:50):
the fifty two man roster might be taking it easy.
He might not be going as hard out. It gets
to be a glorified scrimmage at that point, and you
don't see a lot of points in those games. One
thing that really kept with me my coaches trends, of course,
but then also we just talked about the line movement.
I'm not jumping immediately to jumping on a team as
(15:10):
soon as they say the first team offense is going
to be playing a quarter a half, Like I've done
that in the past, Joe, and it has it worked
out for me, And I've wondered, like what's going on,
Like what do you mean they said that they're playing
the first quarter first half and they didn't hit. So,
like I learned from like you remember how you're a
(15:30):
kid and they're like, hey, don't touch the stove, it's hot.
Speaker 1 (15:32):
And oh, my grandmother just do that to every kid
when they were young. There, come here and you actually
take your hand and put it near the stove so
you realize it was hot, and she's like, that's hot, right,
don't touch it there you go yep.
Speaker 2 (15:43):
Well that's me and thatw preseason. That's me and Brettington preseason.
I just learned from my mistakes from year after year
after year. That's really what it is. I really don't
think I'm any different than anybody else. I just learned
from my mistakes. I realize whenever I see a report
that this team is playing this offense the whole first
half and the line starts moving towards that seam, and
(16:03):
I'm like, okay, let me bet that seam. It has
not worked out for me. I'm sorry, it just has it,
So maybe look into it a little bit more. Do
your research. Hey, what is that? What are they not
seeing in practice from that first team offense that says, hey,
we need to put you in a game more. We
don't trust you to just go to practice. And then
we got to see it in a game setting more.
Maybe there's a reason that first team offense has to
(16:25):
play more, so maybe we need to start looking the
other way. And so it's different, different things that I
like to consider, but those are the main ones.
Speaker 1 (16:31):
All right. If you want full breakdowns, by the way, Terrell,
myself and Andrew Erickson here on the channel, but going
through every single division giving you our favorite win totals,
our favorite division winners, our favorite bets for each division
two but just to run through real quick too, just
some of these preseason bets that are again in there.
Now this is before August first, we haven't even really
kicked off preseason quite yet. But my first take on
(16:55):
MVP is Joe Burrow at plus six hundred. My first
take right now, offensive play of the year for the
rookie side. This one is where I struggle because no,
I don't think cam Ward is the clear favorite, you know,
like we've had in the pass where there's always quarterbacks
at the top of this award. Typically, I think it's tougher.
You got gent D, you got Tech McMillan, you got Hampton.
I think Teed McMillan at plus sixteen hundred is fascinating
(17:15):
because he could have a Brian Thomas junior type season.
Defensive Player of the Year, my early look is a
great value on plus fifteen hundred for Jared Verse, I
think is ready to take that next step potentially for
AP Offensive Player of the Year, I'm fading Barkley because
those four nt and thirty six carries that typically does
not go well the next season. So I'm looking at
Jamar Chase at plus nine hundred and Jon Robinson plus
(17:37):
sixteen hundred. To me, those are two really good bets
for Coach of the Year too. I gotta say I'm
loving Mike Rabel. I think a plus seven to fifty
you can get to ten wins. I think that's a
terrific spot there. And then Defensive Rookie of the Year.
I kind of feel like it's gonna be Abdul Carter,
which is your New York giant there, Terrell. I know
we'll be doing a lot more when it comes to
(17:58):
preseason in terms of the futures market, but so far
as we're kind of starting to dip our toes in
the water, any of these awards stick out to you
that you want to get early before any movement might happen.
Speaker 2 (18:11):
Oh well, the Joe Burrow MVP is just after the
Participation in Trophy that Josh Allen won last year. I
am so locked into now we're just passing the Participation
in trophy along. And they they wanted to give it
to Joe so bad last year too. They were begging
(18:33):
that Begels defense please please just get a stop and
get some wins so we can give it to him, please,
And so now, I mean, it's hard to be as
bad as they were last year. So if the defense
improves at all any little bit, I think the offense
is still gonna be rolling. And yeah, they're gonna give
it to Joe if he just has the wins to
(18:53):
go along with it, and I think they will, so
it's for sure Joe Burrow, like honestly truly, I get
to dabble in and like doing my long shots at
normal as normal, but then I just keep going back.
So they really just gave Josh Allen to Participation Trophy
last year.
Speaker 1 (19:07):
It's just pretty good. I mean, come on, a pro.
Speaker 2 (19:13):
Second scene, I agree with you.
Speaker 1 (19:15):
My vote, if I had one, which I don't, would
have been lamar easy, and my second vote might have
been Derrick Henry, But man, I will turn around and
say that, you know, look, if you it's always a
quarterback of war at this point. But as you said,
everybody kind of gets a turn uh here with the MVP,
and I just feel like and it plays right into
(19:36):
my whole narrative too, because the MVP never wins a
super Bowl, and I don't think the Bengals are gonna
win the super Bowl with that defense, and I think
the Ravens might finally get that ring for Lamar. But
what do you think? Drop your comments below? What are
your who's your MVP? Let's do that. Who is your
MVP prediction? Here? Drop it in the chat below. Was
it a participation trophy last year for Josh Allen? I
(19:56):
could feel all those Buffalo Bills fans in the comments already.
Drop hello, subscribe to the channel like this video too,
and be with us here at Betting Pros for all
of your NFL wagering. That'll do it for us, But
the story of the game goes on. For Terrell Furman Junior,
I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time, Kaz.
Speaker 3 (20:12):
Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you
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Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. It's time to place
your bets. This be Joey P Joe Pisapia, and this
is VP NFL. And before you know it, the regular
season will be upon us and we will be cashing
some tickets. But there's still preseason football to talk about.
It hasn't quite begun yet, probably just days away from
actually recording. This is when we're going to actually have
(00:21):
some preseason football. Does it matter sort of kind of
only to the players where it really matters to but
Terrell Furman Junior and I are going to try to
help you understand a little bit more about the theory
behind preseason NFL betting, some ways to make some money,
and some approaches you can take. Before we get going today,
don't forget to subscribe to the Betting Pros channel. Drop
(00:41):
your comments below. We love hearing from all of you,
and we're trying to get to one hundred thousand subscribers
this year. We can do it with your help, So
let's get on that right now. Hit that subscribe button, Terrell.
So let's talk in the opening here a little bit
about preseason laying out the structure here a little bit
in terms of how we're approaching it. Historical trends. I
know there's some things that we've you know, taken for
(01:01):
granted over the years, like the Baltimore Ravens never dropping
any preseason games, do home advantages exist against the spread,
the situations like that. So when you're looking at historical
data and trying to get kind of an overall picture
and some trends, what stands out to you the most
in terms of the meta when it comes to preseason
(01:21):
NFL betting.
Speaker 2 (01:22):
Well, it's really two that I'm really really locked in on.
I'm constantly looking, like trying to figure out, Hey it
is unders are thing? First half? Unders?
Speaker 3 (01:32):
Is it?
Speaker 2 (01:32):
Overs? Is it? I'm looking for all this stuff. The
first thing is the coaches trends are just money man, Like,
come on, jar Harball went through like, what was it,
a four year stretch not losing a preseason game like
that is ridiculous. And that's that's coaching. That's saying, hey,
we're taking this series. We're going out here trying to
win the game. It doesn't matter if it's preseason. And
(01:53):
it also coincides with the fact that John Harball teams
typically have fast starts in the regular season, Like, that's
just how he coaches up his team. So harpball, for
sure is one he's at like some seventy five percent
in the preseason. Now you got Mike Tomlin, you know
that's my guy. I'm gonna tell you about Mike t
every single show, Joe, every shot.
Speaker 1 (02:12):
I love Mike Tomlin. I just think that the uh,
what they got going there is just in a bad direction. Hey, look, man,
I love Bill Belichick. I said the same thing when
Belichick was at the end of his days. Sometimes that
stuff happens. But to your point, Nah, I don't think
it's even longer than you realize. Seven twenty four game
win streak that existed there for the Ravens. That's pretty amazing.
Twenty four games. I mean, that's absurd. But you're also
(02:33):
hearing some different trends too, because you're hearing like Zach
Taylor talking about, Hey, we're gonna play Joe Burrow Moore
in preseason this year because we felt like we get
off to slow starts last couple of years. We're trying
to avoid that. I think those little nuggets matter too.
When you hear coaches talk about those sort of things,
especially with the starting quarterbacks.
Speaker 2 (02:50):
Yeah. Absolutely, and maybe it's something where you're like, Okay,
maybe they can get out to a hot start first
half in the preseason, like you're gonna get a couple
of good drives. They want to showcase the offense. They
probably want to get a lot a lot of things going.
I think it was last year that Aaron Rodgers played
the preseason the first time in his career, Like, I mean,
it didn't work out for him, so will hopefully Joe
(03:11):
Burrow doesn't get anything like that. But yeah, I'm really
deep into the coaches. Mike Tomlin at some sixty percent
in the preseason and then also fading those coaches like
Kevin McConnell's like two and six in the preseason or
something like that, He's near twenty five percent. Dan Quinn
in multiple different locations hasn't been good in the preseason,
(03:33):
So that shows me that dan Quinn's teams just aren't
taking this serious. So he's a coach that I look
the fade as well. And then another trend that I'm
looking into Joe that I really really like and it
worked for me last year and I think the year
before that too, is the joint practices, and those teams
that have joint practices that week and then played the
preseason game, that game typically starts to go under because
(03:55):
they're putting all the effort and all the good football
and all the reps and all the physical into practices.
They're saying that those practices are way harder than the
actual preseason game, and things are actually the offense isn't going.
People might be beat up, might be slowed down, taking slightly,
moving slower, and so unders in those joint practices where
(04:17):
you played the joint practice and then you had the
game and taken the under there, that actually has been
pretty good.
Speaker 1 (04:22):
What about home versus road and travel scenarios too, is
or anything we can glean from that when we're talking
about trying to find an edge when it comes to
the preseason games.
Speaker 2 (04:31):
I haven't really seen it for me. I haven't really
got behind, Hey, this team has really been really really
good at home, and this one has been really really
good on the road. Per se. I think it's just
more of, hey, where's this team been practicing? Where have
they been located at? Where's this Because you know the Cowboys,
they're all the way out in California. Then you got
(04:52):
to go to Dallas play a game, so are you
factoring in that travel and all of that. But for
the most part, the home road thing really doesn't exist
for me.
Speaker 1 (05:00):
All right, let's switch gears here and talk a little
about quarterbacks before we do. Quick reminder about sharp AI,
because that is what we're talking about here on If
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(05:21):
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Speaker 2 (05:33):
Terrell.
Speaker 1 (05:33):
Let's talk about the quarterbacks here for a second, because
there are instances, especially even we can look back to
last year, right, you saw JJ McCarthy after Sam Darnold
kind of you know, came out of the game. JJ
McCarthy coming in looking great, right, Unfortunately before the knee
injury happened. When we're looking here and the guys that
are getting limited reps a QB, but we either have
young quarterbacks behind them or proven veterans who are trying
(05:55):
to get reps. Is that a way to get an
edge in the preseason two? Because you know, especially situations
we have, like, for instance, it's very competitive in Cleveland
right now, right Is that a situation where you are
running two or running away from because of the quarterback play?
Speaker 3 (06:10):
No.
Speaker 2 (06:11):
I actually love a great quarterback competition. I love to
see a quarterback room where you don't know who the
second guy is. Everybody may know who the first guy is.
We're talking, we're recording this right before the Hall of
Fame game, and you know, Jared Goff is QB one,
there's no question, no doubt about that. But who's QB
(06:31):
two over there? Is it gonna be Hendon Hooker? Is
it gonna be Kyle Allen? Like who's gonna be the
guy that's gonna come up and be that second quarterback?
And so it's competitions like that all over. I mean,
the Saints just got to figure out who their guy
is in general, So the Saints are taking this very
very serious. So I may be looking into Kellen Moore's
team and seeing what they're doing in this preseason because
(06:54):
they really really gotta figure it out, so they're gonna
be giving their main quarterbacks a lot of the reps.
But I love to see a good quarterback competition, not
at just the QB one spot, but definitely that QB
two spot, and who's going to definitely lock in their
roster spot every single week as I'm dressing out.
Speaker 1 (07:09):
So when you see those situations right where there's either
quarterback dep or quarterback competition, does that portend a little
bit more potentially to you wanting to go for the
overs because you're talking about quarterbacks that really want to
push the football show off what they can do in
the offense. Because to me, it feels like that would
be a potential scenario, whereas some of these other ones
where it's just the regular number two guy that you
(07:31):
know kind of take for granted. We're just keeping him healthy,
we're just heading the football off trying not to get
hurt here because you know, we don't want to screw
up the depth shtart. But when it comes to battles,
that would mean to me at least that you would
be trying to again, you know, put some scores on
the board, trying to impress the coaching staff and the
general manager here to make sure that you have a
spot on this roster. So when you have those scenarios,
(07:52):
would you be pushing towards the actual overs as opposed
to the unders?
Speaker 2 (07:57):
I actually think it's a two way street because it
depends on who is the personnel. If you're sitting here
and you're looking, who was it, I think it was
the Carolina Panthers that had a quarterback battle going on
for who was behind Bryce Young And I think who
was it? Andy Dalton? And it was like, what was
(08:17):
my guy's name? Plumber over from Louisville or he was
from Louisville, Kentucky, something like that. He just wasn't any good.
He just wasn't good. He was turning the football over
all the time. And so like you have stuff like
that where you just don't have a good quarterback room.
New York Giants for sure ain't have no good quarterback room. So, yes,
there was a battle and they were going on and seeing, Hey,
who's gonna be the number two? Is it gonna be
(08:38):
Tommy Devido, Is it gonna be Drew Locke, is gonna
be this? Or is it gonna be that and it's horrible.
It's absolutely horrible and it doesn't look good. So I
think it's really just the personnel, because you have teams
who have had great QB rooms, like the Ravens who
had Tyler Huntley at the number two spot. They felt
good about that, and then they were going out and
rolling out different guys. At one point it was like
(09:00):
Trasmick Sorely that was getting some good burn for them
in the preseason because they just kept a good QB room.
So I think it depends on personnel and staff and
honestly the team.
Speaker 1 (09:09):
Yeah, I think it was Jack Plumber. Is that who
you're looking for?
Speaker 2 (09:12):
Jack Plumber?
Speaker 3 (09:13):
Yeah?
Speaker 1 (09:13):
Well, look good, good word of advice here on the show.
Probably don't invest too much in Jack Plumber, just saying
invest in a good plumber, yeah, because it's important in
your house. All right. Let's talk about the sides and
about the public here a little bit too, and the
potential for underdogs, because there are some teams, like you said,
that are bigger time teams like the Washington Commanders, have expectations.
(09:35):
Some other squads too, that are less appt to push
their players, are less app to really take these games seriously,
But you have some of these new coaches upstart situations
here where they are trying to prove themselves right away.
Are those opportunities there where you would say maybe you
were fading the public, because like, the public's on the commanders,
but you see a team like let's say the Carolina Panthers,
who really pressed forward last year towards the end of
(09:58):
the year, those scenario to me seem like there's potential.
Do you agree or disagree?
Speaker 2 (10:03):
Yeah? I think so too, Because for me and something
that is so violatile as the preseason, I think it's
really really hard for me to believe that the books
know what's gonna happen, and then the public also knows
what's gonna happen. Because when the books set a line
that I'm already like, okay, how are you even setting
this line? And then the public jumps all on one side,
(10:24):
I'm like, wait, how do you know that's one hundred
percent gonna be it? It's preseason now, I mean, of course,
the Baltimore Ravens and the Pittsburg Steelers, you just gotta
bet that, like you just know that's gonna happen. But
it's like some of the other games that I'm just like,
oh wait, how did everybody get to this one consensus?
And that's one thing that I like to do. I'll
definitely go for reverse line movement because in the preseason
(10:47):
there has been a trend of if the line moves
a point in the direction one way or another, that
that side has actually been the way to go. So
if the public is jumping on one side and it's
moving a point direction on the other side, and it's
already trend of if it moves the line moves a
certain way that that's pretty much how it ends up.
I'm like, oh wait, this becomes even more and more interesting.
(11:08):
And now I'm looking into that possibility. Okay, if this
team is gonna win, is what's gonna need to happen
for them to win? What kind of player is gonna
be able to go off? Looking through the team scouting
reports and looking through the beat reporters, the beat reporters
and all social media will tell you, Hey, these players
are the ones that you're not looking at that are
catching a lot of buzz and they're probably gonna be
(11:28):
playing in the third and fourth quarter of these games.
Speaker 1 (11:31):
Do you think those swings are too dramatic sometimes, like
when you get a late scratch in a game, or
they all they say so and so always gonna start today,
but unfortunately now it's actually not gonna be the case
because he's dealing with a hamstring issue or something like that.
Sometimes you see Vegas react or even overreact to that.
Are you somebody that you know is I guess is
the only way to put this is? Are you somebody
(11:52):
that has to kind of be waiting by your device
in order to see that in order to make sure
you're in on those moments? Or do you think it's
the Again, sometimes overrated in terms of how much the
lines might move depending on some of that late breaking news,
because we get a lot of it with these preseason
games too, especially we're told one thing on a Saturday
and then you get there Sunday and it's a difference.
Speaker 2 (12:13):
Yeah, oh absolutely. And I'm always into the team, team Reddit,
some'm in the team and spaces, communities all of that,
Like I'm really really locked in. I'm following because I
want to know what is this movement? If there's no noise,
no nothing, everything is quiet for a game and there's
a one point line move there's no injuries, there's no
(12:34):
QB update, there's no nothing, and it's just this random
line move. I'm like, oh, okay, that actually kind of
that's intriguing. Let me look into that a little bit more.
But if they're going out and they're automatically saying, oh,
the starting offense is going to get a quarter and
a half of work, starting offense is going to play
for the whole first half, people are jumping to play
that team automatically, and it doesn't always work like that.
(12:56):
Sometimes the starting offense is trying to figure it out
as well, and they're going into the game saying all right,
let's try this to see if it works. Let's try
that and see if it works. And then next thing
you know, turnovers are here, turnover there, and the other
team is getting to win. So I think all of that,
the line moves, all of that, the team reporting, and
maybe the overreaction underreaction, you can only take it with
(13:17):
a grain of salt and say, okay, let me look
into that more. Let me put some more analysis into that,
rather than just saying, oh, I see that happen.
Speaker 1 (13:24):
Let me bet it all right, Let's take a look
at some more strategy session here. I also we'll talk
a little bit about the preseason bets that maybe Terrell's
even in on already as we're starting to unfold. But
before we do, don't forget make sure you download the
Betting Pros app, whether it's iOS or Android, download it
sink your sportsbooks for free, and you can automatically track
(13:44):
all your bets across all major sportsbooks in one spot.
Easily monitor your bet performance by sport and by bet type,
including game picks, props, and parlays. Create custom betting systems
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by downloading the app at Bettingpros dot com, slash apps
or ready ever get your apps. You download that bad boy,
(14:05):
use that promo code Juice, baby, that's what you want
to use. The promo code is Juice, and activate your
trial on the upgrade screen right now for Betting Pros. Okay, Terrell,
Let's take a look right now at some of the
final strategies you have, philosophies you might have regarding this,
and then some favorite that's that you're already maybe potentially
looking at here in the preseason in the first couple weeks.
Speaker 2 (14:28):
All right, So I talked about the I look towards
the under in the games where they have joint practices.
That was really really good to me last year. I
felt really really good about it. It made sound logic
that hey, okay, we're getting really really physical here, and
so a lot of the starters, a lot of the
guys that play meaningful roles that are gonna be on
(14:50):
the fifty two man roster might be taking it easy.
He might not be going as hard out. It gets
to be a glorified scrimmage at that point, and you
don't see a lot of points in those games. One
thing that really kept with me my coaches trends, of course,
but then also we just talked about the line movement.
I'm not jumping immediately to jumping on a team as
(15:10):
soon as they say the first team offense is going
to be playing a quarter a half, Like I've done
that in the past, Joe, and it has it worked
out for me, And I've wondered, like what's going on,
Like what do you mean they said that they're playing
the first quarter first half and they didn't hit. So,
like I learned from like you remember how you're a
(15:30):
kid and they're like, hey, don't touch the stove, it's hot.
Speaker 1 (15:32):
And oh, my grandmother just do that to every kid
when they were young. There, come here and you actually
take your hand and put it near the stove so
you realize it was hot, and she's like, that's hot, right,
don't touch it there you go yep.
Speaker 2 (15:43):
Well that's me and thatw preseason. That's me and Brettington preseason.
I just learned from my mistakes from year after year
after year. That's really what it is. I really don't
think I'm any different than anybody else. I just learned
from my mistakes. I realize whenever I see a report
that this team is playing this offense the whole first
half and the line starts moving towards that seam, and
(16:03):
I'm like, okay, let me bet that seam. It has
not worked out for me. I'm sorry, it just has it,
So maybe look into it a little bit more. Do
your research. Hey, what is that? What are they not
seeing in practice from that first team offense that says, hey,
we need to put you in a game more. We
don't trust you to just go to practice. And then
we got to see it in a game setting more.
Maybe there's a reason that first team offense has to
(16:25):
play more, so maybe we need to start looking the
other way. And so it's different, different things that I
like to consider, but those are the main ones.
Speaker 1 (16:31):
All right. If you want full breakdowns, by the way, Terrell,
myself and Andrew Erickson here on the channel, but going
through every single division giving you our favorite win totals,
our favorite division winners, our favorite bets for each division
two but just to run through real quick too, just
some of these preseason bets that are again in there.
Now this is before August first, we haven't even really
kicked off preseason quite yet. But my first take on
(16:55):
MVP is Joe Burrow at plus six hundred. My first
take right now, offensive play of the year for the
rookie side. This one is where I struggle because no,
I don't think cam Ward is the clear favorite, you know,
like we've had in the pass where there's always quarterbacks
at the top of this award. Typically, I think it's tougher.
You got gent D, you got Tech McMillan, you got Hampton.
I think Teed McMillan at plus sixteen hundred is fascinating
(17:15):
because he could have a Brian Thomas junior type season.
Defensive Player of the Year, my early look is a
great value on plus fifteen hundred for Jared Verse, I
think is ready to take that next step potentially for
AP Offensive Player of the Year, I'm fading Barkley because
those four nt and thirty six carries that typically does
not go well the next season. So I'm looking at
Jamar Chase at plus nine hundred and Jon Robinson plus
(17:37):
sixteen hundred. To me, those are two really good bets
for Coach of the Year too. I gotta say I'm
loving Mike Rabel. I think a plus seven to fifty
you can get to ten wins. I think that's a
terrific spot there. And then Defensive Rookie of the Year.
I kind of feel like it's gonna be Abdul Carter,
which is your New York giant there, Terrell. I know
we'll be doing a lot more when it comes to
(17:58):
preseason in terms of the futures market, but so far
as we're kind of starting to dip our toes in
the water, any of these awards stick out to you
that you want to get early before any movement might happen.
Speaker 2 (18:11):
Oh well, the Joe Burrow MVP is just after the
Participation in Trophy that Josh Allen won last year. I
am so locked into now we're just passing the Participation
in trophy along. And they they wanted to give it
to Joe so bad last year too. They were begging
(18:33):
that Begels defense please please just get a stop and
get some wins so we can give it to him, please,
And so now, I mean, it's hard to be as
bad as they were last year. So if the defense
improves at all any little bit, I think the offense
is still gonna be rolling. And yeah, they're gonna give
it to Joe if he just has the wins to
(18:53):
go along with it, and I think they will, so
it's for sure Joe Burrow, like honestly truly, I get
to dabble in and like doing my long shots at
normal as normal, but then I just keep going back.
So they really just gave Josh Allen to Participation Trophy
last year.
Speaker 1 (19:07):
It's just pretty good. I mean, come on, a pro.
Speaker 2 (19:13):
Second scene, I agree with you.
Speaker 1 (19:15):
My vote, if I had one, which I don't, would
have been lamar easy, and my second vote might have
been Derrick Henry, But man, I will turn around and
say that, you know, look, if you it's always a
quarterback of war at this point. But as you said,
everybody kind of gets a turn uh here with the MVP,
and I just feel like and it plays right into
(19:36):
my whole narrative too, because the MVP never wins a
super Bowl, and I don't think the Bengals are gonna
win the super Bowl with that defense, and I think
the Ravens might finally get that ring for Lamar. But
what do you think? Drop your comments below? What are
your who's your MVP? Let's do that. Who is your
MVP prediction? Here? Drop it in the chat below. Was
it a participation trophy last year for Josh Allen? I
(19:56):
could feel all those Buffalo Bills fans in the comments already.
Drop hello, subscribe to the channel like this video too,
and be with us here at Betting Pros for all
of your NFL wagering. That'll do it for us, But
the story of the game goes on. For Terrell Furman Junior,
I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time, Kaz.
Speaker 3 (20:12):
Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you
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