EP #44 : Chasing 82: Oklahoma Ride and Slide Open Derby

We have the data, stats and numbers as we look at the Open Derby this year and compare to last year.

Ep #44 Chasing 82 at the Oklahoma Ride and Slide Derby 2026 in Tulsa.

Episode Transcript

(00:00):
Welcome to the Cowboy Office Show, Your Co host are Jodi
Brainerd and Brian Dagger, reigning industry veterans with
over 120 years combined experience judging, training,
living and serving this western lifestyle.
The Cowboy Office Show brings you expert analysis and epic
discussion on the sport of reigning to encourage you to ask
more questions, get involved andmanage change.

(00:22):
Drop your e-mail at cowboyoffice.com to be the first
to receive updates and never miss an episode.
Saddle up as we ride into today's show.
Well, it's Showtime. Welcome to Chase in 82.
I'm Brian. And I'm Jody.
It's going to be another fun show.
The show's number 2, the Oklahoma Riding Slide Derby, and

(00:46):
we're going to uncover what the open level is doing in our
industry. I mean, our world's best step
man has been working overtime and he's got some great stuff
for us. Brian, before we get started,
I'd just like to mention a couple words about a guy named
Charlie Vaughn. We've known Charlie, knew
Charlie forever. Charlie and just recently passed
away and there was no greater supporter of the National

(01:06):
Raining Horse Association. That guy.
And Charlie was also a fine attorney.
I mean a a great non pro showmanlove better golfer than we were
and just a great guy and he willbe you missed.
He was, he's one of the finest guys that I've, I think I've
ever had a chance to meet in thein the business.
Yeah, I I remember him well and he did have a deep passion for
the reigning horses. Well, anyway, just our best and

(01:28):
condolences to Charlie's family and and Charlie, we know you're
watching. We miss you buddy.
And. We'll see you again.
Yes, absolutely. OK.
Well, if you if you've ever wondered are there enough horses
in the aged events sector of ourindustry, I think we got a
little bit of a feel for that answer because now as we look at
Oklahoma riding slide and this is their website, so anybody

(01:51):
that wants some more info can gostraight to them.
You don't have to be in Oklahoma.
Between Oklahoma and Florida, there was 243 total draws for
these two events. So this is the second one being
Oklahoma, only 3% of horses showed in both events.
So are there plenty of aged event horses?

(02:12):
The answer is yes, without a doubt.
I haven't doubted that for a long time, but it's interesting
as we start to compile the answers.
Jody, the numbers for it. Anyways, the other thing that's
very interesting and I'll show you a piece in a minute, is the
age break out, because in this one we were able to pull the age
of horses and gender. So it was actually quite

(02:33):
interesting. This is the entries because when
you put both of these events together, but this is the
entries for Oklahoma this year. Now you got to remember that
Oklahoma had three divisions in the open, Level 2, Level 3,
Level 4, and they've been consistent with that.
So we're comparing the same thing from last year as this

(02:54):
year and the blue is 2025 and the green is 2026.
Bahoma's entries were down just a little bit.
Their entries were down 20% and the draw was down 11%.
The difference of those two is cross entries, but you can look
at this graph is showing you theentries per the three divisions.

(03:15):
They had 59 compared to 71 in the level 457 compared to 91 in
the Level 3 and 53 this year compared to 67 in the level 2.
So I don't think that those are significant numbers.
They're not trends to the industry.
I think that they're actually trends to the region, still a
very strong component. Agree, it's still a good horse
show. I mean it's like, you know, by

(03:36):
by number standard. I think it was a yeah, I think
those are great numbers, that little drop off again, and we'll
talk more about this in a littlewhile, but it's just because
there are so many great horse shows with so much money at it.
I I just wonder if some of those, maybe if people are
taking a look at what's coming, you think?
Yes, I do think that they are taking a peek at what's coming

(03:58):
is the way that gender breaks out.
This is this year. So just looking at the open
Derby at Oklahoma, you had 4950%of them were studs, 29% are
geldings, 21% are mares. So that's the way the genders
break out. Here's the age.
And so it does not. I thought of you a lot when we

(04:18):
pulled this together and summarize it because look at the
amount of four year olds and this event was dominated by 4
year olds in volume. And the horse that wins it,
Fernando, wins it. He's a four year old mare.
Now. I think the thing that gets to
be interesting and not that theythey aren't great horses, they
are, but the four year old competing against the five and

(04:38):
the six year old, I think that that is getting to be very
interesting. The numbers say our industry can
pull the four year olds out if we want, but we are way into one
run, multiple purses, get the most we can with a run as
opposed to anything different. That's what's happening.
Yeah. And for me, it's not something

(04:59):
but because I just, I didn't have barns full of those nice,
nice horses and it was like those 4 year olds, I was trying
to save them even then, you know, a little bit.
And I mean, that was like tryingto protect them because they
were young. I have another quick question.
I would ask you back to the gender thing and the number of
studs we have 50% of these horses are stallions, right?

(05:20):
What do you think would happen if we pulled the trainers and
said would you rather be riding this horse is a stallion or the
source is in guilty? And are you leaving him a
stallion obviously because you think that he's going to be
worth more money than that. And if we take a look at all the
breeding horses that we have today, all the nice producing
horses and with frozen seamen oryou can bring to whoever you

(05:43):
want to forever. Why are we leaving those horses
stallions? Do you think that, do you think
that's going to equate money down the road?
Are they thinking that this horse is going to be tougher and
stronger because he's a stud? I mean, it's a question for me.
I think it should be the exact opposite.
I think there should do this many gildings and this many
stallions, you know. I would have thought the same

(06:05):
thing, because to me, where can the gildings go?
Go be show horses. And is there very good demand,
high demand on finished traininghorses?
And the answer is yes. I hear it all the time that
people can't find affordable ones.
There's there's plenty of them out there, but everybody wants
an arm and a leg. So if there was more, the prices
would come down a little bit. And if there were more geldings,

(06:25):
you'd find a nice sweet spot. And can more people be right?
That made logical sense to me. But the fact that the industry
is not, and I just assume they are, they're playing the game
that a stud, if it's a good one,it's going to ring the bell, but
the likelihood of having a good one, odds are against you.
Absolutely, yeah, You know, backyears ago when we were shipping

(06:47):
so many to Europe, there are such a huge luxury taxes on the
guildings, everybody left them astallion, right, Because the
we're going to get more money inEurope for this horse because
he's a breeding horse. And it's like, well, what are
they've got their own now so that that doesn't happen
anymore. So anyway.
Those days are gone. Yeah, those days are gone.
But yeah, it's just it would be interesting to pull the guys
that are riding the Guild, they're the stallions, and say,

(07:09):
hey, if you had your druthers, what would it be?
What? Would.
You do, yeah. So just an interesting question.
And that would be for for all. Interestingly enough, along that
line, I I rode lots and lots of horses for women, for females.
And I never had one of those ever questioned me if I said we
need to Guild this horse. They go, oh hell yeah, go for
it. But I had plenty of guy go, no,

(07:30):
no, don't do. I don't do that.
So I don't know what the reason is there, but it was, it was
interesting. Might have been an individual
emotional component, right? Yeah.
Exactly, perhaps. So well, when we look at the
last year, this year, total purse money, the fact that
Oklahoma's Derby this year was slightly down just in simple

(07:53):
numbers, just slightly, the purse money was actually up.
So that I thought it was 11% increase in purse.
Total purse money comes out to be almost identical.
And that's just a difference of the cross entries.
So that's the way that works out.
Now I know we talked about this last time, we'll have to do some
polling on this, but here's the probability and the probability

(08:13):
to make the cut lines. Now these guys pay 15 per
division, which is pretty standard.
So your probability is right in the same ball game.
And this is the difference between last year and this year,
which is almost no difference. And that that difference is
because the entries were slightly lower this year than
they were last year, but the purse money was up.

(08:35):
That's just the way it worked. The fact that they're driving
forward with the purses. I mean, they had a 50,000 added
across those 3 divisions at Level 2, Level 3, Level 4, more
than respectable quality of competition and quality of
volume. Fascinating.
I do want to bring up some interesting facts when we looked
at and cross reference both these events because we're going

(08:57):
to continue to do this across the year because nobody's ever
done it. And we can sit around and talk
and wonder and ask ourselves allthe hypothetical situations, but
the points this because again, you go back to 200 and 40, some
entries between the two shows, 240, some draws.

(09:17):
There were three horses that were in the open in Florida that
show up in the non pro in Oklahoma and seven horses that
were in the open in Florida thatcome back and show in the Derby
here in Oklahoma. And we've got the scores to all
of those. But it was fascinating.
I'm one of them, the level one that won, that won level 1 in

(09:39):
Florida. Wesley Brown's horse, it's
called Hey listen here, wins thelevel 1 in Florida and he comes
back and shows it here in Oklahoma, marks a 214 1/2 in the
non pros, marked A 218 1/2 to win the level 1 open in Florida,

(09:59):
and marks a 214 1/2 in the non pro here in Oklahoma.
I thought that was pretty cool, the seven horses that show up in
the open in both ways, and for the most part, I think they all
let let me just go through this real quick 'cause it was seven
horses I dream of stopping. Desiree Kilts.
She shows in Florida, Marks a 217 1/2, Shows in Oklahoma in

(10:20):
the first section. Marks a 216.
Very consistent mega American Matthew Baton, he shows in
Florida 215 1/2, Comes back to Oklahoma, shows in the first
section, 220 1/2. Gets a big piece of it, the
little Colonel Nathan Piper. He, he ended up, wasn't he tied?
Oh, he tied 25th in Florida on this one.

(10:42):
This was a different horse. Marks a 2/17 and 1/2.
He comes back to Oklahoma. Marks a 224 All white.
All white is a horse that Cade McCutcheon owns and shows he was
18th in the level 4 marked at 219 in Florida.
He didn't have a very good ride here in Oklahoma.
Two O 8 1/2 in the second section Titan Annie Spook.

(11:04):
This one I think is fascinating because you know how we talked
about that half point making a difference and the cut line from
the bubble of paychecks. Well, this horse and rider in
the any Spooks PGS Ronimo Lobo rides it.
He was tied in the level 4, tiedin the Level 3 and tied in the
level 2 in Florida. And he was right on the bubble

(11:27):
in level 2, which is 1 horse outof the paycheck.
And it was a great example when I saw him.
Well, he comes back to Oklahoma,marks a 218 1/2 in the second
section, but that's a horse that's sitting right on the
bubble that we always talk about.
And that's why that accuracy is so important.
Important, yes. And then there's two more.
America's Next Anthem with Matt Mills.

(11:49):
He shows Bosque Ranch owns him. He shows is tied in the level 4
and tied in the Level 3 in Florida.
Marks a 217, comes back to Oklahoma Section 2, Marks at
2:20, and then the last one is the next kid with Kate
Mccutchen. So he had two of them.
He owns it and showed it. He tied for 12th in the Level 4
in Florida with a 221. He marks at 225 1/2 in the

(12:11):
Section 2. He's right up there.
He's ringing the bell. So I thought that was
fascinating. Yeah, now that really is, I
think that's, that is so neat. And I'm glad that you're the
first one to to crack the comparison numbers here.
I mean, that's really, really good.
And I, I, I just can't wait to see what they're going to do,
not the next one. I mean, I'm already, I'm already
wanting to know, I mean, how many are going to be 4 year

(12:32):
olds? How many are going to show
again, how many show them this year?
And I mean, at the end of this year, I want to know how many
runs we put on some of these guys.
I mean, I, I really do what today's horses are so much
better than so much better than our, our yesterday's horses that
we had to ride. But you know what, they also
have to show so much harder and they have so much more laying on
them. So is that really, is there

(12:52):
really any difference? You know, I mean what the
pressure these guys are under. I hear you and I, I think about
that one a lot. And I wonder some of those
nuances and differences in today's time versus in our time.
In our time that the time that you had to get up there and
climax these things was a very short window.
It just was that you had to follow their three-year old year

(13:14):
and a little bit of the spring of the four year old year in the
Derby. And then if you had one that
wanted to step up and give the Open title a stab, OK, fine.
But we wouldn't see, you'd see five or ten horses that would do
that. Not we're seeing hundreds.
Right. Exactly, exactly.
Yeah, yeah. In heck, there was only a four
year old event, you know, there wasn't room for it.

(13:36):
There's either the Super Stakes or the Derby, whichever name,
whichever name got the money that year, right?
It was pretty funny. But yeah, it, it was, it's it's
amazing how many there are, how many good ones there are.
But yeah, I am, I'm really curious and this is great info
to see basically over the long term, how long they last at that

(13:57):
level and how many will drop down into that non pro category
to see maybe rather not. If they lighten their load up a
little bit and let those things out from underneath that open
pressure, maybe, maybe they can get better.
And you know how we used to always say, and I believe that
this is fundamentally true because the game, the control
game with the reigning horse is there's a spot where the horse
gets to second. They know too much.

(14:19):
And the more they know, the morethey're going to guess and try
and react on their own. There was always a philosophy on
a great reigning horse only had so many runs.
It would appear to me and I don't know this, but if we
looked over the lifetime of a reigning horse in today's time
one, they are older and it appears that they have any more
runs in them than what we did inthe older days, right.

(14:40):
Absolutely. And I think there's several
reasons for that. We've talked about that in the
past, but #1 I think is the vastimprovements in sports medicine,
you know, not only a pedigree, genetically these things better
and, and bred to do what we wantthem to do.
And, and in our day we're tryingto take some stuff that wasn't
near bred for this kind of stuffand trying to make them that
anyway. If they were hot, half the time

(15:01):
they were sore and we didn't know it.
We didn't know horse had Hawks in the day.
I was like, you didn't know thatjust, well, he's not stopping,
you know what I mean? So but if you put with fat got a
bad attitude, but that improvement in the sports
medicine is huge with these guys.
So I mean, the veterinary care with these things are getting
the care. Obviously the shoeing,
everything's improved. So it's just huge.
But I think, you know, the training techniques with the,

(15:23):
with the paid warmups that, you know, we never used to have or
you couldn't afford it, you knowwhat I mean?
Or there wasn't time, Just didn't have a horse show that
started three days early so you could practice.
It would have been great, but nobody can afford it.
Interesting. Yeah, Yeah.
Well, that's how much we've grown and learned.
I'm going to show you 2 pieces here.
These are metrics on the show itself, similar to what we did

(15:45):
last time, so that we're keepingsome consistency.
This is a scattergram. It goes fast.
What we did this time was just put it those lines or trend
lines, so you can see that they're all flat, which makes
last year to this year very equal except for one.
That's that blue line that takesa slight dip to the right.
That's the entry difference. But when you high score,

(16:05):
average, high score, cut lines, I want to show you because cut
lines and scores and the depth of competition, and here it
comes. This is cut lines, high scores
and entries per division for thetwo years.
So the top group is last year 2025 and the bottom group is
this year, 2026. In the three divisions, level 4

(16:26):
down to level 2. And it shows you the numbers in
each. And so you can look at the high
score. It's it's right in the ball
game. Last year was 228 1/2 and this
year's at 229 1/2. Cut lines 222 to 222 1/2.
Half point difference between last year and this year for
level 4 cut line. That's deep stuff, really.

(16:48):
Yeah. And, and being in Oklahoma,
would you be overly surprised about that?
The answer would be no, because the I-35 corridor, you're in the
heart of it, right? Right.
Yeah. So, but Florida is running right
with it. So it doesn't matter where you
are, that's where the industry is.
That's my take on that one, yes.That is, that is interesting and
I was looking at some of those comparing year to year.

(17:10):
It's just amazing. The 2026 horses may be slightly
higher as far as the winners areconcerned, but it's just good
horses or good horses when you're talking about even
between, you know, champions andreserve champions.
If you're talking about 1/2 point or a point between those
horses from a maneuver standpoint on a 5 judge system,
it's a thing, correct? So correct.

(17:31):
And yeah, that's that's the depth of the competition that
we're we've been dealing with for some time.
So yeah, that's not new news either, but it's a little bit
more factual because we're actually looking at those pieces
in more detail than we ever havebefore.
When we compare last year to this year, the scores are right
on the same target. Last year, Level 4, Casey Deary

(17:53):
wins it. I can customize my dream.
That horse at Devon Warren owns Phenomenal horse, right?
He is. Matthew Baton wins Level 3 and
David Moore wins level 2. And then this year?
But Fernando? Yep, Fernando, Fernando Salgado
wins it. Last horse in the draw.

(18:14):
Everybody can talk about that one.
The last horse in wins it ridingNo Rush, owned by Sky Lazaro,
lives in Utah. Last horse in the draw.
It was absolutely phenomenal, 229 1/2.
That's an average score of 76 1/2.
And that horse is by Spook's Gota Spark.
We're going to see more horses by that.
That's a son of Spook's Got a Whiz and we're starting to see

(18:36):
some of them. And holy moly and the dam of
that horse is going to rush you.And then reserve was Cade on
noise complaint owned by Bosky Ranch marks a 228 1/2.
That's an average 76.2. And if you just look at the
average between those two, it's a half a point.
That's what it is. And Cade's horse is a gunner out
of blaze by commander. I think that's interesting.

(18:59):
That's that's a maneuver. You know, that's a maneuver that
half point, right? So I mean, it's, it's just, it's
a maneuver and one that sticks. Those are great horses,
obviously great runs and a good big pen with really good ground.
And yeah, they're, they're stuff, if not tougher this year
than they were than they were last.
So it's just amazing to me. Can you, Brian, can you?

(19:21):
This might be a really good partof this.
You told me that that this show did something really interesting
in the draw that I found interesting and I didn't keep
track of it like you did. Can you share what they did with
the draw at this show as far as the levels were concerned?
Day one to Day 2 and the Derby. Absolutely.
I thought it was fascinating because first of all they split

(19:42):
the draw. So they started it midday on
Friday for the first section of the open Derby.
It started about 11:00 central time.
And then they came back Saturdaymorning and had second section.
And at first I I assumed they split that so that they could
handle volume if necessary. Because again.
We were talking about, you know,last year they had 129 draws.

(20:04):
Well, that's 13 plus hours sitting in the chair and your
consistency gets in trouble. So all of those things would be
somewhat Givens. So I assumed they split it 1 so
that they could handle volume and not be under pressure 2 What
it appears the way they did thatwas the Section 1 draw was level

(20:25):
2 and Level 3 riders. Plus they allowed you could ride
four horses in this open Derby as long as the fourth horse was
a stand alone 4 year old. And maybe that's why their four
year olds were so up there and in volume of section.
So the Section 1 draw had level 2 and three riders and the four

(20:47):
riders that had the four year old in it.
Then they come back on Saturday and that draw is Level 3 and
level 4 riders and it it flowed very well.
It was done outstanding. I think they did a phenomenal
job and I think they helped the officiating be way more
consistent because the depth of that competition was more equal

(21:10):
in your peer and you don't get those fluctuations as much.
And that's true. It really is.
So basically what you're saying day one, it was a horses that
were not entered didn't cross enter the level 4, just the two
and the three. Is that OK?
So and it was maybe as a little bit like some of those and and
really in today's day and age, Imean, I get it.
There's a fact that, you know, we looked at Shannon Ray Fax

(21:32):
last week talking about a horse that would have won the level 4
had she been entered on it. So this is not to say that those
level 2 and level three horses are capable of showing in the
level 4, but just some guys thatfelt like they probably had a
better shot if they stayed in inthat level 2 and three division
and they're one up or whatever they do instead of having to get
into the level 4. But I I completely agree with

(21:54):
you. That's been one of the biggest
gripes that I had, even when I was sure the committee and
monitoring a lot of those major events for NRHA when we would
have the Open finals or even thenon pro finals for for that
matter. But the Open finals, those guys
were judging so many horses before they got to the night
time performance of our top 35 or whatever it was it was.

(22:16):
You burnt. Your.
Fatigue is the biggest factor that they're not paying
attention to. So you need those officials to
peak when you want them to, which is the open finals and you
actually had. We've always we've had them more
out. So I think this is there.
There's some, there's some legitimately good, good things
to happen in this situation right here.
So yeah. I think many of the major events

(22:38):
could take note of this. I think their move was splitting
those sections that way, not in the same day but on two
different days is phenomenal. I think it was a great move.
So I give them a lot of credit. There's no doubt I want to show
you because we'll finish the winning of the three divisions.
Now this is the open division. You got to remember Oklahoma had
five divisions because they had a novice and a four year old

(22:58):
sticks in there. We're not pulling all the data
from that. This is this is the open.
So Fernando, riding a four year old stud, I think I said he was
a mayor earlier and I was wrong.It's a four year old stud, No
rush. Mark's a 229 1/2.
The Level 3 is Leonardo Kellerman and he's been knocking
on the door as hard as it gets. He's riding GT Major Money,

(23:22):
which is a six year old mare. Mark's a 225 1/2 for Leslie
Branca, and I've got the sires and dams down there too.
That's a gunner's tenses, tone. And then the Level 2 winner was
Edward Edward Win, riding next Top Gun and instructor.
That's the four year old mayor. That's great information though,
too. And like I said, pedigree and

(23:44):
genetics mean so much, play a big role now in in everything as
far as especially the money thatthese things bring to.
So it can be a great horse, but if they're out of that great
mayor, it makes a huge difference.
So yeah, rates. Well, I think the thing that's
interesting is this is what it'staking to win it.
I think the next interesting point is where the cut lines are
in each of those divisions, because level 2, you're at the

(24:07):
two 16217 mark and Level 4 is running consistent.
It was 222 1/2 this year, but you can take any level 4
anywhere and it's running 2:20 to 2:23.
That's where it is. And they're banging on the door
of this 2:30 and where's it going to be?
Just where we are. Yeah, yeah.
And it will be there when the scale gets used.

(24:29):
That's what that'll be. You think we'll live to see it?
I don't know, but yeah, we, we'll, you know, we're trying.
So, you know, there's, there's some interesting, interesting
information on that that you haven't had of us here yet.
So, yeah. Well.
We're going to go to using the scale.
Using the scale is a big one. This is because that now you got

(24:52):
to remember because Oklahoma split it.
So you can actually do the analysis on Section 1 and an
analysis on Section 2 or an analysis on the entire draw as
one open Derby. So we've got data that will look
at some of those nuances. This chart is looking at the
blue is 2025 and the green is 2026.

(25:13):
So it's 2026, both sections combined.
So when you put those two sections in the one big draw for
the open Derby, this is they're using the scale, comparing it to
last year because that's exactly, that's the same
comparison. Then when we look at the two
sections, it'll be a little bit more detailed.
This shows you what's going on. Plus half is obvious plus one.

(25:38):
Here's what I thought was interesting. 94.9% of all the
marks were from zero to +1. That's phenomenal and that's
deep and I don't care who you are, that's just a fact. 85% of
the marks are from minus half toplus half, but you're talking
about 9% of them being minus half to 0 having the oops.

(26:02):
The bulk of this is on the good side, which is not new news, no.
Yeah, the low end is correct. You know, I mean that's, it's so
many of these things between thezero and the plus one from a
maneuver evaluation standpoint 94 and almost 95% of those marks
it's it tells you that they're all either correct is the low

(26:22):
end and it goes up from there. So yeah, that's that's crazy
good. Yeah, I'm going to show you this
one just for the fun of it because it's using the scale,
but this is looking, this does two things.
On the left hand side you can see 2025 and then you have the
three, you have the two sections.
So it's first section on Friday,second section on Saturday and

(26:42):
you can see where Saturday obviously takes a step up the
depth of continent. And that's because you got your
Level 3 and 4 riders in second section, your level 2 and three.
It's horsepower, that's what it is.
And then the far right hand is the when you put it all
together, which we just looked at.
So when you look at the whole Derby this year compared to last
year, you can see it quite obviously across using that

(27:05):
scale. I will tell you these guys used
the plus 1 1/2 more than they did in Florida and don't ask me
why it's almost a half of 1/2 ofa percent better, but in
percentage of volume because you're talking about over 4000
maneuvers marked and they have point O 4% of all those

(27:26):
maneuvers. Mark A + 1 1/2 and I'm going to
show you just for the sake. And the point to that story is
obviously the spins and both rollbacks and you're stopping
back. That's where the plus 1 1/2's
were. They were not in the circles at
all. And I'm not sure I know I could
see a bunch of circles and I could have called them plus 1
1/2's. They're good movers.
They're well balanced. They're doing the thing highly

(27:48):
controlled. As an industry, we're struggling
there. I want to show you this one just
for fun sake because this is actually, this is a card of
Fernando that wins the Derby in Oklahoma and its bottom 5 lines,
which is right there. But the point is there's no one
and a halfs in there. He marks a 229 1/2 and

(28:10):
everything in it is a decision between plus half and plus one.
And that's where and if you lookat it, there was only there's
only one maneuver they are 100% unanimous on and that's the left
rollback. Everything else is teetering.
Even his left spin is almost hisleft spin and his right spin are

(28:31):
three quarters 7/8 to being unanimous, but still not quite
there. I just think it's interesting
and it does show the struggle, the hard work that the officials
got to do that's. All and now it's like I said, we
can talk about that forever. But yeah, it's and a lot of
times with the current system it, it's very difficult to

(28:52):
separate horses at that level because there's not, there's not
enough distinction in, in, in our scale.
So it's like I said, we we've talked about that till we're
blue in the face, but it is so hard.
You end up boxing those horses, which again is why we see tie
after tie after tie and they're so very, very close, but they're

(29:12):
very difficult to separate. Yes, they are.
It's just an area we've got to keep putting some work into.
The one that we talked about a lot, I'm going to take us here.
This is the one. This is about accuracy, and
we're also bringing in score spreads just so that everybody
can see it, so that you can talkabout and be factual about
what's happening in these two categories.

(29:32):
And these guys, if you want to look at score spreads, they're
doing outstanding. They're in the high 80
percentile, pushing right on. 90% of all runs are within the
normal 2 point spread. Not a big to do but now you
start to look at accuracy. They actually did better this
year than they did last year. So you can see that right across
the board what's going on it, because we talked about this,

(29:55):
it's crossing 0 and maneuver spreads at one point or more.
So you can see exactly what's happening.
And each one of those, because the blue is last year, the Peach
is the first section, the purpleor lavender is the second
section. In the green is when you put the
whole draw together and look at the Derby as one whole section.

(30:15):
That's what you're looking at. You can go right across this
thing and see exactly what's going on.
And this is an example of what we just looked at with the cards
because you're running in the low 60 percentile of being
accurate as the volume goes up, I think the accuracy goes down
regardless of what the final score spread does using 5
judges. I just think it's interesting.

(30:37):
Each and every show is interesting.
And like I said, I'm glad to see, I'm glad to see that we
have some improvements though asfar as the spreads are
concerned. That's a that's a big thing when
we're talking about 27% of the runs are crossing 0.
It's more than the quarter, you know, that's high.
It's high that that's an area that we need to continue to find
a reason to make that better. Yes, I think it's interesting

(31:00):
that our industry hasn't been screaming more than it does.
I'm not sure if it even does. I don't know but.
And the people that scream aboutare the ones that when they look
at their scorecards to see it happens to them, they don't care
about anybody else. Right aside this, this happened
to me. This is a bad thing.
I mean, that's, that's kind of funny, but it's a, it's a true
story. I'm also surprised again, what I
said. We we talked about that till
we're blue in the face, but thatthat maneuver evaluation, it's

(31:23):
you can't call it good and can'tcall it bad at the same time.
Today's time you can't call it correct and call it very good at
same time, or or or good and excellent.
You just can't. They are distinctly different.
Right. Yeah.
So, you know, there's at that point in time, each one of those
officials believe that what theymarked it was the correct thing.
Monitors. Monitors are important in that
respect for sure. They should be.

(31:45):
Yes. They should be, but by the data,
I, I question what they're doingand I say that in all due
respect, we've both been there in both forms.
So I, I get it and I give them full respect.
But again, we're talking about 2026.
We used to talk about that importance of winning the
fraternity because it was a big,big deal.
Not that it's not a big deal today.

(32:06):
Yes, but there's thirteen of them today.
It was 1 before, so now there's a lot more and so it's a big
deal. Yes, that's true.
Costs are up there too, by the numbers.
They're not. They're not progressing at the
same rate that the quality of competition is.
Quality of competition is movingfaster than the officiating can

(32:27):
make. Find distinctions, That's the
fact. Agreed.
And well put. So the last piece of data is
penalties because everybody talks about penalties a lot and
and it's true and I think that they are putting the emphasis
into being more accurate with penalties.
But this is going to emphasize and it's this trend is going to

(32:49):
continue through the year. That's my prediction.
Both those will the accuracy compared to score spread will
continue through the year because we've now seen it three
years in a row. And the penalties, because this
is total penalties is not our problem in the game is not
penalties when they show up, this is what happens.
And you're talking about 12% of all runs are going to have a

(33:11):
penalty in it. But of the runs that have the
penalties, the majority of them are non unanimous, which means
they're non reviewable. That begins to create you're now
splitting hairs by half a point and it does make a difference.
It's the bottom of cut lines. It's the bottom of paychecks.
Absolutely. Like I said, we've talked about
that in the past also penalties,they either happened or they did

(33:34):
not, right. It's not like maybe they happen.
So and anytime it's going to cost somebody a great deal of
money, that half point, that's another area that needs to be
looked at for sure. Yeah, yeah, Yeah, I agree.
And I just think that that's where we are as an industry.
So then I question what are the monitors doing because it
doesn't look like they're putting the emphasis in the

(33:54):
right areas. That's that's why do I say that
is because the numbers, the numbers say that their actual
performance says that. And I think Fernando Scorecard
is a great example of it to them.
In summary, we're off to a heck of a start.
End of story, $100,000 of prize money given out in 2 events.
Over 250 horses out there competing across the country and

(34:18):
it's taken 70 sixes to get the big prize.
It's as deep as ever, and it's going to be.
Yes and yeah. I'm going to continue to be,
though it's I'll promise you. We don't even have to.
We don't have to look at the finals of these next, but we
know where they're going to be at, you know, from a score
standpoint, we know what kind ofruns these horses are going to
have. So not just these more than an

(34:39):
accident. These first two shows that that
top end, those top half dozen horses in that level 4 open are
marking what they mark in our day.
You know, you got a horse markedat 74222.
He won everything, everyone's towin and now they struggle to get
a paycheck with it. So and and rightfully so, it's
not a I'll make it up. That's how deep this stuff is.

(35:01):
So we've often, you know, you and I have said that before a
second. Good gosh, I'm really happy.
I'm going to have to go try to search for one that can carry me
to a winner's circle today, because are they fine, you know?
I pose this as a question. This would be 3/4 of a major
chore at home. Horse trainers having to self

(35:22):
reflect how good their horse is because until you go get it
marked you, you can think it's plus one and plus 1 1/2
material, but until your peers are going to market for you,
that's a hard one to come to grips with, would you not agree?
Absolutely. I agree.
And I think that there's so muchof this that is I think probably
part of the reason that a lot ofthese horses are are at the

(35:44):
level that they're at today is that, you know, back in Hardy, a
lot of times we would work and we'd have somebody that worked
for us and maybe we had one employee or maybe we had two,
but only one Rd. with us becausea barn was full of if we needed
multiple riders. Unlike Casey, I don't know how
many Casey Deary's got riding for him.
He obviously turns out a great, great product because he's

(36:04):
winning like crazy and he's got good kids that are working for
him. But we we didn't have that, you
know it in our day from the number standpoint.
But I think one of the things that that I would lose all the
time when I would go get to a show, unless I was going to show
an all summer long was the speed.
And how many times have you had a non pro rider say you said you

(36:25):
got to go somewhere. I was flying and no, you were
really fast. But what I think these guys
today, a lot of these trainers in in stable that there's more
than one. They're riding together every
single day and they're looking at each other's horses and they
know what that level is. And you got good help and you're
looking at this thing and you know what it's going to take,

(36:45):
but you're there riding by yourself like we did back in the
day. You, you lose a little bit of
that, but you don't have that. You don't have that direct
challenge on a daily basis. And you get somewhere, you go,
oh wow, I got some work to do. We got to go back home, right?
So. Anyway, barn blindness.
Yeah, exactly. So it's A and and you know, you
can be, you can be woke up, but it's today what you you said

(37:05):
something that's earlier that's a, there's a niche or niche that
you can fill. I mean, young trainers that are
trying to figure out a spot to go.
And we just talked about that. There's a shortage of affordable
non pro horses that somebody cango find and get in the business,
but they're not there. And because they're all priced
through the roof and maybe some of them shouldn't be priced
through the roof, but they're going to be that way anyway.

(37:26):
But to create that product is still possible.
And and you don't have to worry about when you find that good,
when you can go take it. You don't have to go try to make
that, that send me through that 218 to 219 horse mark that 222
that he or she can't do anyway. There's a lot of room yet still
for good horses and good trailers.
Yes, I would say there's more room now than there's ever been.

(37:49):
Absolutely. Without a doubt.
So yes. And I think the Chor is finding
your place, your niche, your spot, what you're comfortable
with and what you can turn over and make money with and service
the industry. Does everybody have to be in the
top ten of the fraternity? No, you don't.
You don't even have to go to thefraternity.
No, absolutely, I agree. So there's a it's a it's a it's

(38:11):
a great, great sport, great industry.
And it's like and those those will get filled, I think.
But that, you know, so much is, I think in today's day and age
from that open riders put on that And there's there's a lot
there's, you know, good guys on a non pro horse or two in the
bar too, but they're focused mostly on on open and what can
carry me. And that's what I want instead
of what can I, what can I createto help this market?

(38:34):
Interesting. But yeah, good stuff.
We got all kinds of fun stuff coming up.
I can't wait to see. I can't wait to see the next one
already. We'll get to that in a second,
but I'm going to pose another interesting question because the
markets, the international market and reigning horses is
definitely different. It's different than it was.
They're not buying as much. They got a lot.
They can supply their own. Are they coming here?

(38:54):
The answer's yes. Are we shuffling around a little
bit? Yes, but not as much as we used
to. But and it's happening here in
the US more than anything. All of that is true.
But then comes and the amount ofstuds that are out there because
we've seen this play before too.Will we see, will the market re
establish itself in a new form that will bring prices down a

(39:17):
touch but still keep them? If prices came down a touch to
the middle part of our industry,would more people play this
game? That's the question.
And I think the volume of horsesbeing made because there's a lot
of, I don't think they're getting sold and it's because
they're holding out for that longer dollar.
Am I somewhat on target? Absolutely, no.

(39:38):
There's no question about that, that that's an accurate, that's
an accurate decision. I think probably a lot of times
what happens is in that list, because we're talking about this
because we can, we've been through it, we've lived it.
But what happens I think is thatthose prospects are oversold
many times in the market price. In other words, somebody comes
and they see that yearling because they can't afford to buy

(40:00):
the 2 year old. And that yearling still cost
them 1000 or 60,000 or 75,000 orwhatever the case may be.
And then all of a sudden it doesn't work and they've got
another 50,000 in training in itover 2 years time.
And all of a sudden we've got this 125 or $150,000 in this
thing and. And we can't sell it.
And we used to do that in our day that that same horse with us

(40:24):
was in dollars, you know what I mean?
By the time we. And, and if we could sell it for
20, that person would play againbecause they didn't mind losing
that $10,000. But if you tell them that, oh
shit, we're going to lose 100, we may not, we may not want to
go there again. And it costs a lot to get these
things to a horseshoe. But I think probably initially
that and granted, there's tons of cost involved in breeding and

(40:46):
raising these things. And like I said, the giant
jackpot, you know what I mean? The stallion owners have to pay
and the mayor owners are paying and that full enrollment fees
and all that stuff that goes with it.
The reason that some of those things are hard to sell for so
much money is because because they initially paid so much for
them. But people, a lot of times, we
often say that or did in the past, that people would pay more
for the dream than the reality. In other words, they would pay

(41:09):
more for prospect and they wouldthat finished a lot of times,
you know, so, yeah, yeah, yeah. It's food for thought.
Yeah, yeah. Well, that's that the fraternity
was always the carrot or the lottery or the you know, that
that dream, no doubt about it. And so having that dream and
pursuing that dream and having it come to fruition I think is,

(41:29):
yes, it's fantastic, which is different than wanting a good
Joe Horse and go show. Yes, I agree.
I think the interesting piece iswhen we talk about breeding
because have you been paying attention at all because the
AQHA and the two year rule, do you know what I'm talking about
when I'm putting that up? Well, because it's about
deceased horses and the fact that the breeding pressure is on

(41:51):
the stallion owners. That's not new news, but it's
higher pressure now economics and it's not like they're
breeding twice as many horses because they have cooled semen
and frozen semen. It's not true.
Those I just heard some stats because the AQHA is going
through the two year rule. Right now the leading studs in
the AQHA registry are 200 nightmares in a year.

(42:16):
Well, if you're spending whatever it is 30 to 40,000 to
have your stud in all these breeding programs so that the
foals are there, you're not breeding another 25 or 30% more
foals. And it's not because technology
will let you, it's because the markets not there.
So I think that's fascinating. Now we're going to start pushing

(42:37):
another 500 studs through the marketplace that are it should
be geldings, right? Yeah, absolutely.
And it's Sophie. Yeah.
That that's really, really funny.
And I mean, you know, we're talking back to that stunt thing
again. There's been many, many times
I've had somebody bring a horse to me.
I said, would you read a mare toit?
The guy's riding, right? Would you read a mare to that
thing? No.
He has done. Yeah, you know, but it's been

(43:02):
that way forever, so it's not going to change tomorrow either.
So, yeah, interesting. It's going to be interesting to
see how the year goes. So we got show #2 under the belt
and they're knocking on the door, which is what we expected.
The next ones are coming up. It's going to be back-to-back.
We'll probably do one show with both combined, depend on the
volume. But the Cactus Classics going to

(43:24):
have a Derby and the Run for theMillion qualifier is a stand
alone. That's there in Weatherford and
you're neck of the business and I I've they're talking about
everything sold out already. Nope.
You know what I don't know aboutthe live stream on that thing.
I haven't even tried to find that yet.
I I assume that it's going to bethere probably you're going to
need to pay for it. But yeah, go ahead.

(43:45):
As far as going to watch it likewe did in Scottsdale, not Yeah,
no chance, right? And it's because it's that I'm
assuming it's at a pride. I've never been to his ranch.
It can't be like going to a fairgrounds.
It's not that big, is it? Right.
No, I don't. I don't think so.
So, and you know, but actually it's, you know, I mean, it's a
it's not, it's not a bad problemto have.
No, it's a great one. Well, the thing that's

(44:06):
interesting, they're going to qualify nine horses because
remember, Fernando is automatically qualified because
he got hurt last year and they took his slot last year and
pushed it forward to this year. So he's already qualified, which
is like, pretty cool. I think it's great.
So it's going to be interesting to see, you know, do they get
100 head trying to get 9 slots? We'll see.

(44:26):
And the Cactus Classic is going to be running of another 80 to
100 head is what I would guess. And that's a set of horses that
will come back. Very likely those horses that
are going to be showing here areof going to be of Derby and NRBC
age. And you know, they go have a,
they're going to have a very difficult run and that run for a
million qualifier and they're going to have to come right back
and go show me it. Well, the thing that's

(44:49):
interesting that the qualifier is 100,000 headed, so it it will
pay well. And yes, they're trying to get
in the top 9 spots. The Cactus Classic Derby has
four divisions in it, 10,000 each.
So it's a 40,000 added for the four divisions.
So if you're going to enter two or three of them, that's where
you are. So it's going to be interesting

(45:09):
to see how they choose who goes where, not only who in the
rider, but what horse do they take.
Exactly. Yeah, Yeah, it's a, there's a
lot of, there's a lot of thoughtthat needs to go into this too,
because it's so, you know, where's my best shot going to
be? And Yep, absolutely.
I can't wait for that. And it'll be interesting to see
what the numbers look like on those two shows too.

(45:30):
Yes. So cool.
So don't forget, go to cowboyoffice.com, put your
e-mail in if you haven't already, join with us.
We do send out a routine newsletter keeps kind of a
highlight of all these things. It's another great way to stay
in touch with us. Drop us a note any questions,
inquiries or curiosities that you all may have and until the
next time, enjoy the ride. Hey, I want you to stay in the

(45:52):
middle of Vine. I'll leave you with a with a
little story that you know, thatcame from my father.
And this would have been this would have been back in the
early 70s. I remember this and it was it
was what happened in South Dakota.
My dad was was born just off thePine Ridge Reservation in South
Dakota. And he, he loved that country.
And that country was, you know, ranch country.
And it was tough country and tough people in that country.

(46:14):
We used to go out there and ride.
And my dad loved going out thereand riding with those ranchers
and go to that country. And he had some really, really
good, good friends out there. And I remember one time that
we'd gone out there and he'd he'd actually shown a couple of
the ranch hands out there how toput a better handle on their
horse at this time. Yeah.
And there's a guy named Jerry Sampson that was one of these
guys that, you know, had raised some horses.

(46:35):
And and Jack, my father said, well, Jerry said, have you been,
have you been working on those exercises?
I give you, you know, kind of put a better handle on your
horse? And, and Jerry said, yeah, Jack,
he said, I sure have. He said, you know, he said, I
got where I can write my name with it.
He said, that's how I'm good. He said, I've got this horse,
I'm broke this horse. And there was another one, these
old ranchers that was, I'm sure.I couldn't even tell how old he

(46:58):
was, but he was a tough old cookie and ranched out there in
that tough country forever. He just shook his head.
He said, I have no idea why the hell you'd want to teach a horse
all that unnecessary shit. Struck me as funny at today's
day and age. If you could have shown that
same set of guys what we're doing and what these horses are
doing, they didn't just, you know, the old rancher, I would

(47:19):
have still thought the same thing because it didn't do him
one bit good. But but right, your name was 1
was pretty darn broke. So anyway, I'll leave it with
that. And yeah, exactly, I can't wait
to see you all again. Thank you for tuning in and keep
it in the middle. You got it.
Today's episode is brought to you by 40 Productions in
cooperation with the Consultant Agency, a full service agency

(47:40):
that helps bring forward thinking equine brands into the
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