Freight rates on the move up

Kia ora,

Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news of some notable and sudden rises in freight rates.

But first, US jobless claims came in lower last week than expected at 197,200 in a holiday-affected period. Seasonal factors has expected a lesser decrease. There are now 1.7 mln people on these benefits nationally. A year ago, there were 1.66 mln on them.

The November job cut tracking shows it was less than in October, coming in for the latest month at 77,000. That ends a strong of outsized monthly cutbacks although it is +24% higher than year-ago levels. In fact for only the sixth time since 1993 has the year-to-date level been higher than 1.1 mln and the 2025 level is now the highest since the pandemic.

There was also catchup data out overnight for US factory orders for September. They were little-changed from August but were +5.3% higher than year-ago levels. They are still struggling to recover official stats and no revised dates are available for their October or November updates.

Meanwhile the NY Feds tracking of global supply chain pressure shows it is easing. Their index eased to -0.16 in November, weakening from -0.09 in October. The index reflects deviations in global supply chain conditions relative to its historical average, with negative values indicating below-average pressure.

EU retail sales were up +1.6% from a year ago in volume terms in October, better than the expected +1.2% gain. But that was a slowing in their retail expansion from what they have had for most of 2025.

In Australia, household spending rose +5.6% in October from the same month a year ago, and that was its fastest rise since November 2023. It was up +1.3% from September alone, its fastest pace since January 2024 on that basis. Spending on all categories except fuel and health costs rose notably in the month. This data adds to the chance the RBA will be raising rates in 2026.

Global container freight rates rose +7% last week from the prior week, ending the recent three-week retreats. Outbound rates from China to the US and to Europe rose while trans-Atlantic rates dipped. Overall container freight rates are now -45% lower than year-ago levels. Also rising, and even more sharply were bulk cargo rates, up +18% from a week ago and these rates are now +132% higher than year-ago levels.

The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.10%, up +3 bps from this time yesterday.

The price of gold will start today at US$4209/oz, and down -US$9 from yesterday.

American oil prices are +50 USc firmer at just over US$59.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is now at just under US$63.50/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is little-changed from yesterday, now at just over 57.7 USc. Against the Aussie though we are down -10 bps at just under 87.3 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 49.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.2, and little-changed from yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$92,607 and virtually unchanged from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest, at just over +/- 1.1%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.