Moving on, ignoring vital risks

Kia ora,

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news that with the Indian subcontinent on the edge of armed conflict and tit-for-tat terrorist moves and retaliation, the world's economy is ignoring these new risks.

First up today, the US House of Representatives is set to vote to end their latest and record-long shutdown, and by the time you read this, have probably approved the compromise. This has seen Wall Street react with a split personality. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen to a new record high. But the broader S&P500 is becalmed, and the Nasdaq is lower. The bond market is more risk-averse. The USD is weakening. Just guessing here, but it seems markets think the shutdown pain was a wasted exercise and the result will be negative for the giant US economy. Rebooting their economy won't be easy.

Meanwhile, US mortgage applications were little-changed last week, with the refinance market dipping slightly and the smaller new purchase market rising, actually with a notable increase. This came despite mortgage rates rising in the week.

And more Americans than ever are falling behind on their car payments. According to Fitch Ratings, the share of subprime borrowers at least 60 days past due on their car loans rose to 6.65% in October, the highest in data tracking that started in 1994. And selling a used car to pay off the debt won't help. Record numbers of people doing that still owe loan balances after these sales.

A well-supported US Treasury 10yr bond auction today brought a median yield of 4.02%, down from 4.06% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.

In Canada, there were more positive economic signals. Building consents rose in September from August more than expected, led by multi-family projects in Alberta and Quebec and single-family homes in Ontario. But overall, they were still -8% lower than year-ago levels.

In Japan, machine tool orders rose in October by more than +17% from the same month in 2024, driven by a +21% rise in export orders. They would have been happy about the +6% rise in orders from local manufacturers too.

In China, residential real estate developers are under pressure to generate cash - again. Meeting year-end sales targets is crucial to hold on to their finance lifelines. So there are not only steep discounts on offer, but other creative incentives, such as "move in, buy later". One Guangzhou developer as a scheme where buyers front with a ¥100,000 deposit (NZ$25,000), move in for one month, and if they are not happy can move out with the only cost being one month's rent.

In Malaysia, they have a buoyant retail sector with retail sales rising +7% in September from a year ago, accelerating from the +5% gain in the previous month. It was up +4.3% in volume terms and was their largest increase since January.

In India, CPI inflation there has fallen to a record low +0.3% pa, down from +1.4% in September. Driving this is -5% deflation for food. In turn, that was caused by very good food growing conditions and heavy haervests.The RBI has an inflation target range of 2%-6% and this was the third consecutive month it has been below the bottom of that target. They will likely now move to cut their 5.5% policy rate soon, maybe at their next meeting on December 5, 2025.

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