Polling Insights: Can Brian Bengs Defeat Mike Rounds in South Dakota? Zac McCrary says, YES, he can!

Zac McCrary, a partner at Impact Research, shares insights about the competitive political landscape in South Dakota, particularly focusing on the Senate race against incumbent Mike Rounds. With a significant portion of South Dakotans expressing a desire for change, Zac highlights the unique position that independent candidate Brian Bengs could occupy in this election, as he could effectively draw support from disenchanted voters across party lines. The discussion reveals an alarming trend for Rounds, as polling indicates a majority of voters are ready to move on from him, showcasing a notable anti-incumbent sentiment. Zac emphasizes that the dynamics of the race could shift dramatically depending on the viability of Bengs as a candidate, particularly given the challenges facing the Democratic nominee, Julian Baudoin. This episode dives deep into the nuances of voter sentiment and the potential for a surprising outcome in a traditionally Republican stronghold. Zac McCrary, a partner at Impact Research, shares his insights into the political landscape during a candid conversation with David Wheeler. The discussion delves into the intricacies of polling and the current electoral climate, particularly focusing on the upcoming Senate race in South Dakota. With a backdrop of increasing discontent among voters toward incumbents, Zac highlights the significant anti-incumbent sentiment building in South Dakota, particularly against Senator Mike Rounds. He notes that a striking 55% of South Dakotans express a desire for new representation, a number that transcends party lines, including a substantial portion of Republicans who are ready for a change. This dissatisfaction opens the door for independent candidate Brian Bengs, whose appeal lies in his background as a military veteran and constitutional law expert. The conversation further explores the dynamics of the race, emphasizing the challenges faced by the Democratic candidate, Julian Baudouin, who struggles to capitalize on the anti-incumbent wave due to the entrenched partisan divide in the state. Zac's analysis paints a picture of a potentially competitive race if Bengs can effectively mobilize the disaffected voters who are ready to oust Rounds. As they discuss the broader implications, both speakers reflect on the evolving political climate and the possibility of surprising outcomes in the upcoming elections, underscoring the importance of strategic campaigning in challenging environments.

Takeaways:

• Zac McCrary emphasizes the importance of helping Democratic candidates win in tough races, showcasing his extensive experience in political consulting and polling.
• Brian Bengs' independent candidacy is highlighted as a potential game changer in the South Dakota Senate race against incumbent Mike Rounds, especially given the anti-incumbent sentiment.
• Zac notes that polling shows a significant desire among South Dakotans for new leadership, with a majority preferring to elect someone other than Mike Rounds.
• The conversation reveals that Brian Bengs could potentially siphon votes from both independents and disaffected Republicans, making him a viable candidate against the incumbent.
• Both speakers discuss the dynamics of the electoral landscape in North Carolina, pointing out that Governor Roy Cooper has been successful in breaking through in statewide elections.
• Zac expresses optimism about the upcoming election cycle, drawing parallels to previous Democratic wave years and emphasizing the shifting sentiments among voters.

Companies mentioned in this episode:

• American Muckrakers
• Impact Research
• Public Policy Polling
• Marcy Kaptor
• Josh Stein
• Roy Cooper
• Kay Hagan
• Brian Bengs
• Julian Baudoin
• Mike Rounds
• Chuck Edwards
• Mark Robinson

Episode Transcript

(00:05):
David Wheeler with AmericanMuckrakers. It's another day. It's
another Brian Bengstestimonial and delighted to have
Brian's holster. Right. Well,Zac McCrary, welcome to the show
and thanks for doing this. Youprobably don't get drug into publicly
talking about your clients asmuch lately, but delighted to have

(00:28):
you here and tell us a littlebit about yourself, your work and
your experience.
Yeah, absolutely. Thanks forthe chance to come and chat a bit.
Yeah. Zac McCreary. I'm apartner at Impact Research. We're
a national politicalconsulting firm. Polling focus groups
is our trade. My own personalstory is I worked and started working

(00:53):
in politics. Got veryinterested in politics at a very
young age. I was reading abook called the American in the Almanac
of American Politics in highschool. I was reading it like a novel,
even though it's a referencebook. So got got bitten by the political,
political bug very early.Started volunteering for races in
my early days, did. Woredifferent hats. I did some field

(01:16):
organizing. I did somecommunications. I did some campaign
managing type. Type work. Butthe last 20 years or so, I've been
in polling. Impact Research isour current, my current firm and
I think my bread and butterand really our firm's bread and butter
has been helping beatRepublicans in tough terrain. Whether

(01:38):
that's, whether that's beatingRepublicans in North Carolina for
governor, beating Republicansin Louisiana for governor across
the country, that we do allsorts of different work. We have
all sorts of differentclients. But that's really what gets
my juices going, is helping anindependent win in a tough place,
helping a Democrat Democraticcandidate win in a tough place. And

(02:00):
that's, that's, I think our,our bread and butter and where I,
where my, I made my bones andwhy I think this race in South Dakota
is so, so interesting.
Cool. Well, we. Sounds likewe're birds of a feather in that
we're both masochists, enjoy agood fight. But, you know, sometimes
that's where the action isanyway and that's where the fun is.

(02:21):
And certainly we're inbusiness sometimes where the opportunity
is so good on you for takingon those races that there's certainly
lower profile, lower budget.But, you know, I think the Democrats
sometimes forget that they canwin in some of these races if they
just put some time andattention and had good guys like
you.
Yeah.
Involved with them.
Yeah, I appreciate that. Yeah.I do think these are races where

(02:43):
just as a strategist, theymake you better. As a, as an operative,
they make you Better becauseyou can't just coast on being on
the right side of the partisandivide. A lot of races are just basic.
You're just swimming, swimmingwith the current in a lot of places.
And you don't really have torun that smart, that creative of

(03:05):
a race. But anytime you'retrying to elect a Democratic governor
of Louisiana, Democraticgovernor in North Carolina, you're
trying to flip longtimeRepublican seats like I've been blessed
to be a part of in, across thecountry. One of my, one of my clients
is Marcy Kaptor, whorepresents a district in Toledo,
Ohio, a district that DonaldTrump won by double digits. She's

(03:27):
actually the longest servingwoman in the history of Congress.
So those are the races thatget me, get me really going like
working across the country,all sorts of different type of races.
But I think these types ofraces where you're never swimming,
if you're Marcy Captor in adistrict that Donald Trump won by
10, 12 points, you're neverswimming with the political current.

(03:48):
You're always swimmingupstream. If you're Brian Bengs in
South Dakota, you're neverswimming with the political current.
So that makes the campaignsmore important. That makes every
decision on a campaign moreimportant. I think that makes you
have to be better and sharperas an operative. And that's, that's
why I really enjoy these typesof races.
So I'm glad, I'm glad we havehaving you on this show then. I mean,

(04:09):
it's terrific to hear yourperspective. So did you, you worked
with Governor Stein at thetime, Attorney General Stein or,
or is that, or were you onCooper's campaigns?
Yeah, yeah. I actually go backto when he was state senator, Josh
Stein, one of his, in some ofhis estate Senate races, he had two
terms as Attorney General. Nownow winning a blowout race in 2024

(04:34):
at the same time Donald Trumpwas carrying North Carolina. Josh
Stein won by double J doubledigits in North Carolina. But yeah,
our, our firm actually worksfor Roy Cooper as well. And North
Carolina is one of thosestates where, where, where Democrats
have been able to breakthrough at the statewide level. I'm
actually very optimistic thatRoy Cooper can break through. His
decline of our firm as well,can break through at the federal

(04:55):
level. Democrats have had goodsuccess in Governor Coop line at
the state level. But, butreally since 1992, I believe I had
this right. Since 1992,there's only been one time where
a Democrat has won a Senaterace in North Carolina. That was
2008 with Kay Hagan, anotherclient of Our, of our firm as well.

(05:15):
But I really do feel like RoyCooper is well positioned to break
that streak and to breakthrough and flip that open Senate
seat in North Carolina. He'snot the, not the candidate who's
getting the most attention onthe Senate map. He's not, that's
not the race that's generatingthe most headlines, but I think he's
the best candidate on theSenate map for Democrats and I'm
very optimistic. NorthCarolina is always very close. That

(05:37):
race is going to be a 2, 3, 4point race, but I really feel like
Roy Cooper is well positionedto break through this year.
Yeah, I'm glad to hear thatyou're on the right side of those
races. Governor Stein. I havedeep respect for and really like
his governing style, which isget shit done and, and you know,
the publicity and all theattention will come after you've

(05:59):
done good things for people.You know, I live out here in western
North Carolina where we hadHurricane Helene come through and,
and tear up the place. And,and he has actually been into this
small little county of ours.Dozens, I mean, not dozens, probably
about I know of at least sixdifferent times over the last two
years. And you know, God blesshim for taking that time and the
effort to do that. And, andyou know, Governor Cooper is, is

(06:24):
probably the all star in NorthCarolina Democratic history. He's
just such a terrific personand he wins races. But it's always,
you're right, it's alwaysclose. I mean, he went through the
recount, his first governor run.
Yeah.
But even the second run, Ithink was fairly close. And so you're

(06:44):
right, it's not a top of linerace for people because Cooper's
such a quality candidate, butit's going to be damn close.
I think that's, I think that'sthe expectation. And actually western
North Carolina, I think isgoing to play host to a very, very
competitive House race aswell. I don't know if that's your
district or not, but is itNorth Carolina 11. Jamie Hager, the
Democratic candidate. That'sone. I think every day more and more

(07:07):
people are waking up to thefact that in a good political cycle
for Democrats, Jamie Eager, avery good candidate. The Republican
incumbent, Chuck Edwards, abeleaguered. It's always, it's always
a, a bad sign if you're anincumbent, if the word beleaguered
becomes your first name. Butbeleaguered incumbent Chuck Edwards
in North Carolina, bleakerRepublican incumbent. That feels

(07:29):
like this feels like the kindof cycle where Democrats can break
through in that western NorthCarolina seat, which a year ago or
previous cycles that reallydidn't feel that plausible. But it's,
this feels like a, in a racelike that, you need a good political
climate which I think isdeveloping for Democrats. You need
a quality Democraticcandidate, which I think you have
in Jamie Egger. And then youneed a damaged Republican and you

(07:52):
put all three of thosetogether, the three legs of that
stool. And I think Democratshave a really good shot at breaking
through in that House seat as well.
Yeah, I, you know, my guy wasMo Davis and he, he dropped out.
But again, I think the Eggerfamily is catching a break similar
to what Stein did in that thecandidate is such a scumbag, you

(08:17):
know, and Edwards had, youknow, I don't want you to talk about
this because you representthose campaigns, but I will. You
know, Edwards has gotgirlfriend problems, he's got staff
problems. He's trying, I thinkhe's or trying to some of his staff
and they've complained andagain, you don't need to comment
on that but you know that'sgoing to catch up with him. Similar

(08:38):
to what, you know, MarkRobinson. And we helped break that
story on Mark Robinson, by theway. We, I went in and I set up an
account on nudafrica.com andscreenshotted every single lewd comment
that he made and got those outreally fast. But.
Well that's gonna, that wouldgive you carpal tunnel syndrome to
screenshot all the, all theMark Robinson's loot comments.

(09:01):
Well, and it was disgusting tohave to set up an account there.
But all in, all in anything tohelp Governor Stein at the time AG
but all right, so let's, let'smove on. Zac, to our good friend
Brian Bengs. I know you'vedone some polling there. Can you
give folks kind of the topline read on this race?

(09:22):
Yeah, absolutely. And this isa survey done actually by the, the
firm Public Policy Polling,which polls all across the country.
I'm happy to dive into theirto their data and tell it to discuss
a little about what we've seenhere. And when you look under the
hood of this survey, there arereally three core elements that jump
out to me. First, a clearmajority of South Dakotans are ready

(09:46):
to hand Mike Rounds, theincumbent Republican, ready to hand
him his gold watch and moveon. If you look at the, the, the
the atmospheric doom loop forrounds here, 55 of South Dakotans
say the country's heading downthe wrong track. 59 of South Dakotans
give the other Senator JohnThune, an unfavorable rating which

(10:06):
to me is very striking anddemonstrates the anti incumbent wave
building that South Dakota'sother senator, he's not up for reelection
this cycle but Senate Majorityleader John Thune, nearly 60% of
the state rate himunfavorably. Now as it relates to
Mike Rounds, he's in that sameneighborhood right on cue. 55% by
God majority say explicitlysay they prefer electing someone

(10:29):
new over re electing MikeRounds. And Mike Rounds is not a.
Hold on a second there Zac. 55for an incumbent negative is not
really heard of, is it?
It's very unusual to be a sortof a conventional Republican in a
conventional Republican state.I think it speaks to the, this anti
incumbent wave that isbuilding. You've even seen some of

(10:52):
in North Carolina in thelegislative races. But we've, we've,
we've seen two RepublicanSenate incumbents lose in primaries.
We've seen several Houseincumbent, House incumbent Republicans,
members of Congress losetrying to run for governor lose trying
to run for Senate. There isthis anti incumbent sentiment building

(11:12):
here and that the Thune numberis a good example of that here. But
this is, this is somethingnew, this is something dynamic that
is going on. And yeah, this isnot something that we have seen in
previous cycles where youwould have a majority again 55% starting
with, with a desire to move onfrom their current Republican Senate.

(11:33):
Yeah, that's, that's a, thatis a very promising number. So what,
what else, what else did yousee in that poll?
Yeah, and this is a guy roundwho he was but he's been a fixture
in South Dakota politics sincethe movie Ghostbusters was fresh
in theaters. I think whenRounds was first elected there wasn't
even a South Dakota or NorthDakota, just the one Dakota. But,
but truthfully he entered theState Senate in 91, served two terms

(11:56):
as governor, now into hissecond term in the U. S. Senate,
literally 35 plus years in thesystem. South Dakota knows this guy
inside and out. And a majorityare telling us they've seen enough
before. $1 has been spentagainst him this year. South Dakota
wants a change, wants to moveon from Mike Rounds. It just has
to have a comfort level withthe alternative. And that's where

(12:17):
the catch is, the strategiccatch. That 55% majority who wants
someone new other than yetanother Rounds term. That majority
includes 2/3 of independents.It includes 40% of Republicans. That
both shows you how fragileRound standing is that a lot of conservative
minded voters are already outon him. But it Also proves that any

(12:39):
path to ousting him runsthrough non Democratic voters. No
one is arguing South Dakotawants to go blue. This is the same
state Donald Trump carriedwith ease in 2024. Joe Biden's approval
rating in this very poll,we're talking about it. 66% unfavorable.
The reality of the math inSouth Dakota is that if you carry

(13:00):
a D next to your name, you'rejust completely landlocked. There's
a deep partisan moat aroundyou that prevents a Democrat from
building the multi partisancoalition required to evict an unpopular
Republican incumbent. It mightnot always be like that, but that's
certainly where we are now.And that brings me to the second
piece of the puzzle. TheDemocratic candidate, Julian Baudouin

(13:22):
is just structurally incapableof leveraging this anti incumbent
climate and mobilizing thevoters who are already done with
Rounds. And it's not a knockon him as a person or even as a candidate.
It's just the cold, hardreality of the brand. Mike Rounds
is unpopular, but theDemocratic brand in South Dakota
is, is radioactive. So in astate where 55 of the electorate

(13:45):
is actively shopping for afresh face, Bodwan, the Democrat
still trails rounds by 25points, 56 to 31. Which is basically
the Trump over Harris marginin the state all over again. So a
Democrat hits a concreteceiling right out of the gate. The
good news is that it's anentirely different universe the second

(14:05):
you put independent BrianBengs in that slot. Suddenly Mike
Rounds drops from acomfortable majority 56 to 31 over
a Democrat. He drops from acomfortable majority down into the
mid-40s. On the initial ballotagainst independent Brian Bengs,
Rounds lead shrinks to anarrow four points within the margin

(14:26):
of error, 44 to 40. That's amargin of error squeaker with a universally
known incumbent well belowthat 50% survival line. And why does
that map completely shiftbetween those two scenarios? Because
the independent label breaksthe partisan gridlock. Bings instantly

(14:46):
captures a 30 point lead amongindependents right out of the gate.
The Democrat Bauduin was tiedwith Rounds among independents. Even
more striking, Bengs more thandoubles the share of disaffected
Republicans he can siphon awayfrom the incumbent. The independent
Brian Bings pulls 24 ofRepublicans away from rounds. Bodouan

(15:06):
takes more like 10%. Sofundamentally a Democrat is going
to hit a hard ceiling in thehigh 30s. Ahead to head of rounds
versus Bings, though, showsthat's really a live existential
threat to Mike Round's career.And the final piece of the puzzle
is really how this racematures when a campaign plays out

(15:28):
in this survey respondentshere a basic paragraph of positive
information about all threecandidates it's equal links all positive
no negatives are tested hereGrounds gets his turn at the plate
the Democrat does Bings doesand then you retest the ballot this
plays out what could happenover the course of a campaign when

(15:49):
that happens in the race whereit's Rounds versus the Democrat the
cement hardens Rounds leadactually solidifies to a 25 point
advantage 57 to 32 because aDemocratic challenger keeps the Republican
base entirely locked down inSouth Dakota Independents who are
more conservative are just notgoing to flock in mass to a Democrat.

(16:11):
But when you run that exactsame exercise with Rounds and independent
Brian Bings BS moves from a 4point deficit to a 2 point lead 44
to 42 once voters here andthis is after this is also including
replicating the positivemessage from Rounds from the incumbent
giving giving him his due butincluding they also hear about Brian's

(16:34):
Brian Bink's profile as amilitary veteran constitutional law
expert his blue collar rootsat that point he he leads rounds
by plus two. He's taking 70plus among Democrats 60 plus among
independents and capturingmore than one out of four 26% of
the Republican base andpeeling off more than a quarter of

(16:54):
the Republican base really isthe holy grail win number for a challenger
in South Dakota and it reallyat that point if you if that can
happen all an independent allBrian Bengs has to do to finish the
job is just to furthersolidify his hold on the Democrats
and independents and that'sreally the easier part of the coalition
versus taking the Republicansaway from a Republican senator which

(17:18):
again we find that he'salready pretty much about where he
would need to be amongsiphoning off Republicans and he
just has to better solidifyeverybody else to hit that 50% statewide.
So ultimately being status asan independent and is really appealing
Biography acts as a circuitbreaker for tribal partisan politics.

(17:39):
He gives frustratedconservative South Dakotans a way
to fire an incumbent they'retired of and these voters can still
sleep like a baby at night.Profile is a blue collar independent,
dual branch military vet,constitutional law expert. All of
that acts like a solvent ontraditional party lines. It dissolves
enough polarization not all ofit but enough polarization to allow

(18:01):
a totally new coalition toform underneath. Nobody's saying
it's easy to beat a two termincumbent in the Great Plains. We
know the drill, we know thecaveats. We know that the Republican
establishment will spendmillions to protect Rounds. But make
no mistake, this is a liverace. If it's a clean one on one
fight between Brian Bengs andMike Rounds, the raw anti incumbent

(18:24):
fury of the 2026 cycle meansthis is exactly the kind of race
that could actually flip.
Yeah, and this is, you know, Iread this poll and you did a terrific
job of kind of laying out themechanics of it or the, the numbers.
And it's extraordinary thatBrian Bengs, six months before or

(18:46):
seven months before anelection is polling this well in
a head to head match. Don'tyou think?
Yeah, it is, it is and it's,and it, you know, Brian's an appealing
guy, has an appealingbiography but really the, the, the
game changer here is the angerthat voters have where you have majorities
and it, you know, Rounds isyou know, part of the problem, but
it's less about Rounds. It'sjust, it's just the corrupt system.

(19:08):
It's the system that many,many voters, not just Democrats,
not just independents, but alot of Republicans are sick of and,
and looking for a way, lookingfor people to take out this anger
on. And somebody who's been inpolitics for 30 years, he's in his
second term in the Senate, butI guarantee you when we get into
focus groups in South Dakotapeople are going to think he's been

(19:28):
there forever, which he sortof has. He's been in politics forever.
He's the personification ofwhat really voters find so distasteful.
And Brian, Brian Bengs is areally great antidote to it. A blue
collar independent, militarycredentials. His most recent, most
recently he's working as apark ranger out in small town South
Dakota. So it really feelslike the moment here, if this was

(19:51):
four years ago, 10 years agoor maybe 10 years from now, maybe
the, the ingredients in thecocktail don't quite come to get
together but it really doesfeel like the man and the moment
are meeting here in terms of avery anti incumbent sentiment building
in the electric bubbling up.You have somebody who totally represents
what voters don't like aboutWashington about the political status

(20:14):
quo. And then you have BrianBengs who is, whose background, whose
bio, his, his, his vibe, theway he, he, who he is, how he comes
across is really a greatantidote. So that you put all that
together in a race like thiscomes online in a way that, that,
that, that you know, most ofthe experts would have thought well
this, not that it couldn'thappen until you actually see it

(20:36):
with the, the cold hard number.
Right. And, and PPP is This isa scientific poll. This isn't just,
you know, scratch your ownback, Poll. Correct.
Yeah, no, this is absolutely,this is, you know, from a, from an
outlet who pulls across thecountry who has, you know, very good,
very good track record here.And you know, the, this is a survey
where that accurate,accurately reflects the Trump I mentioned.

(21:00):
You know, Donald Trump won thestate in, in 2024 easily. He won
it by 28, 29 points. Thesample of the survey that we're talking
about reflects that. This isnot, you know, this is not looking
at pollyanish numbers here.This is very clear eyed in terms
of the fundamentals of thestate here and is accurately reflecting

(21:21):
the conservative underpinningof the state here. And despite all
of that, we, we find that theincumbent Republican is in real danger
here. And you know, frankly,uh, it, it, it does feel like the
Senate majority is in play ina way that, yeah, I would have been
skeptical. Would have been thecase six months ago, 12 months ago.
And certainly if whatever theRepublican path to keep 50 Senate

(21:46):
seats is, that path reallyhits a brick wall. If somebody like
a Mike Rounds, if they don'thave the Mike Rounds around, they
don't have his vote to rely onthe Republican, the Republicans who
are currently hanging on totheir majority with their fingernails.
We see Donald Trump'sapprovals in the country, you know,
melting like he's a wickedwitch of the West. If, if, if, if

(22:09):
Mike Rounds could be oustedhere, it gets very, very difficult
for Republicans to get to 50seats and a, in a majority in the
Senate.
Holy shit. Yeah. I mean, BrianBengs again, you know, he would come
in as an independent, but youknow, he's a constitutional lawyer
and I assume he could be avote to send Trump packing.

(22:32):
Yeah, I mean my understandingis that he's, that, I mean the way
he's talked about it, he's notgoing to caucus with either party.
So he would not be a, he wouldnot be a vote for, for either party
and he would vote for what'sbest for South Dakota on, on, across
the board. There's, there'sprecedent for that. There's other
independent senators in the,who have done that in, in, in the
history of the U.S. senate.Uh, there's multiple, as I'm sure

(22:56):
you know, David there andtalked about, there's other independents
running in, in Nebraska, inMontana, in Idaho. There could even
be a small group ofindependent senators that have a
lot of sway. But if nothingelse, that Brian Bengs in the Senate
would make it very, verydifficult, nearly impossible for

(23:18):
Republicans to return thegavel, return the power to the Trump
aligned Republican Senatemajority. Yeah.
And off the top of your head,do you remember what the Trump approval
was in this poll?
He's right around 50. 50. Andagain in a state where he carries,
you know, in a state whereTrump carried against Kamala Harris

(23:38):
with around 60% of the votethat, you know, to go from 60% in
2024 to now being right around50, 50 in this, in this survey, you
know, shows sort of the typeof freefall that he's in and tracks
with Trump's, you know, IfTrump's around 50%, 50% approval,
50% disapproval in, in SouthDakota, that, that tracks with Trump's

(24:01):
nationwide national numbersbeing in the, in the mid-30s, his
approvals being in themid-30s. So we've seen Trump in free
fall in the national pollingand really in free fall in a place
like South Dakota, even thoughstill closer to 50, 50, because it's
the DNA of the state of thelast decade plus has been, you know,

(24:22):
very, very Republican. ButTrump's numbers here are, are pretty
darn unimpressive for what,where you would expect a Republican
president to be in South Dakota.
Right. And that's reallywithout any active opposition to
Rounds or anybody else inSouth Dakota yet. I mean, obviously
Brian and Democrat are outthere campaigning, but you know,

(24:43):
they haven't, they haven'tbeen on the air like they will be.
So.
Yeah, yeah, here's a couplethings that make me excited about
this race. Number one, you're,you're telling us and, and obviously
this is a poll and kind oflooks back and things could change.
So I don't want to put wordsin your mouth, but this poll says

(25:04):
scientifically it would be amonumental hill for the Democrat
to beat Rounds in a head tohead race. Correct?
Yeah, it's very, it's, I can'teven, I would have to do much more
than squint. I don't know howthat happens. You know, as we see
here, when you replicatedespite all of Rounds baggage and
the liabilities and, andeverything we've talked about, when

(25:26):
you match Mike Rounds versus aDemocrat, voters pretty much just
default to where they were inthe 2024 race in South Dakota, which
is a 20 plus point Republican margin.
Right. And this guy isinexperienced, this candidate, and
I listen, I don't know him. Idon't mean to begrudge anybody that
sticks their neck out to runfor public office because that's

(25:48):
a sacrifice. However, I did alittle research myself, Zac, and
this guy has literally 20collection actions against him that
I found in court records. AndI don't, I don't want you to comment
but I think the voters ofSouth Dakota need to learn more about
this Democratic candidate andI doubt the Democrats that put him

(26:08):
up were aware of this. But youknow, he sounds like he's going to
be a flawed candidate. It'sgoing to be a waste of time and money.
Is there any indication thatRounds put this guy up to it?
You know that's a goodquestion. He certainly is, is useful
to Rounds, I can tell you thatmuch. And we actually saw that, we
actually saw that in Nebraskawhere in it thankfully it was thwarted

(26:28):
where the Republican senator,incumbent senator in Nebraska put
up a right wing activist totry to capture the Democratic nomination
To, to do exactly, to put, toput Dan Osborne in Nebraska in exactly
the same place Brian Bengs isnow of having to navigate being an
independent challenger with aDemocrat on the ballot. Thankfully

(26:50):
Nebraska that was thwarted.But that's exactly what happened
in Nebraska was the incumbentSenator Pete Ricketts put up and
they didn't even really denyit. It was, it was, it was almost
done in plain sight. And so ata minimum all I can say in South
Dakota, not all the, all theintricacies is that Julian Bowdoin,
the Democrat is, is serving avery useful, useful, playing a very

(27:12):
useful role to Mike Rounds ashe tries to navigate reelection despite
a majority of the state beingready to, to, to send him packing.
Yeah. And a three way Brianhas a really tough field of climb
because this Democrat's goingto get what, 30% of the vote?
Yeah, yeah, I'd admit, yeah,something like that. They probably

(27:32):
divide it down the middle. Youknow the, the, if you take the 55%
who are ready to do. To votefor somebody else other than Mike
Rounds but then you dividethose in half roughly between a Democratic
challenger and an independentchallenger then that's how Mike Rounds
slips back into office with 40some odd percent because the anti

(27:54):
Rounds vote is divided betweenthe two, two alternatives and unlike
a few other states there wouldbe no runoff. Georgia, we probably
many of us remember theGeorgia runoffs in after the 2020
elections. There, there's acouple states where you, you would
have a runoff if, if, if nocandidate hits 50% in the November

(28:15):
election. That's not the casein, in, in South Dakota. If, if Rounds
is the, if you have a dividedopposition to Rounds and he's only
42% in November he slips backinto office, slithers back into office
despite a Majority looking forsomebody, looking to do something
else.
Okay, so folks that arelistening to this, this is Zac McCrary,

(28:38):
pollster for Brian Bengs andan advisor to his campaign. And he's
talking about a PPP poll whichis a legitimate scientific poll.
And here's what you need totake away. Folk, this is just my
opinion. This is not Zac's orBrian's or anybody else's. So don't
attribute it to them. Butlisten, you need, you need to get
on the phone, you need toemail and, and see if we can gently

(29:01):
and pleasantly friend in afriendly manner, see if we can get
this Democrat to step downand, and endorse Brian just like
it happened in Nebraska. TheDemocrat who won that primary, I
don't even think it was 24hours after the primary, maybe 48
withdrew from the race andendorsed Dan Osbor who's an independent

(29:22):
labor guy there. We need thesame thing to happen up in South
Dakota and I'm willing tostick my neck out and try and make
that happen. But I need helpfrom folks like you that call the
Democratic Party in SouthDakota and I will put all this up
on the show notes, callJillian Bauduin or Bowdoin campaign

(29:44):
and ask him in a pleasant way,do not berate the guy, do not embarrass
him. We just need to logicallyexplain to him why he should drop
out. And listen, I firmly, Ibet I grew up in Iowa as most of
our listeners know and I'vebeen to South Dakota quite a bit
and I love this part of theworld. And Brian Bengs is just the

(30:06):
guy that South Dakota needs.And I'm saying that from my experience
of working with Tom Harkin andTom Vilsack, they're level headed
people, they're common sensepeople and they get shit done. I
mean you look at Harkin andVilsack both, they both did a lot
in their careers for thepeople they represented and there

(30:26):
was no bullshit and, and no,you know, long lasting controversies
about them. So. And I believeBrian Bengs is, is that guy and should
be the next senator from SouthDakota. But I need help folks, getting
this Democrat to see the lightand step down. So let's say this

(30:49):
Democrat does not get out ofthe race. Is there any path for Brian
at all? I mean did we, we haveto destroy this guy or you know,
Brian doesn't have to, but iswhat path would there be if, if it's
a three way race?
Yeah, I think it's just verydifficult at that point. You know,
I think one would have to justsort of take a deep breath once that

(31:09):
is locked in and determinewhat the path is. You know, again,
this is a cycle where I thinkthere's going to be some upsets.
If there's going to be a cyclewhere something like that could be
pulled off. I think that thisis the cycle. This is where we're
going to see a lot ofsurprises. Maybe not exclusively
with Republican incumbents,maybe some Democratic incumbents
too. We've seen Democraticincumbents, some Democratic incumbents

(31:32):
struggle in the primaries, forexample. So I don't even say this
is, this is not just as asingle, doesn't just go in one direction
in terms of the partisan piecehere. But, but certainly Rounds is
as weak as he's ever been. Ithink head and shoulders, a one on
one. Brian Bengs versus Roundsis. He's, he's extremely vulnerable.

(31:55):
It gets much more difficultafter, after that. But I think one
would just have to take a deepbreath and see where we stand. I
think that would be sort ofAugust when, when that would potentially
firm up if indeed Baudouinstays in the race and sort of take
a deep breath and figure outhow to make the math work at that
point. You know, the otherthing I would say, my understanding

(32:15):
and I, again, I have nottalked with anybody about this and
I could be over my skis here,but my understanding there's even
possibilities that theDemocrat Baudouin doesn't could run
for their other offices, otherstatewide offices available here
that is not necessarily USSenate or nothing, but there's other
down ballot offices in SouthDakota that that could be positions

(32:37):
he could land in. And so Ithink that could be perhaps the best
of both worlds.
Yeah, I agree with you 100%. Ithink there's a lieutenant governor
spot that's still open. Sothat could be an alternative. Folks
that are listening when youcall his campaign or call the Democratic
Party in South Dakota suggestthat he run for lieutenant governor,

(32:59):
that spot's open. This guy'san African American. That would be
a, a stepping stone for him tomaybe run for governor someday. He's
a former state trooper. Idon't want to question his motives,
but we gotta explain to himthat the time is now. We are at a
critical moment in thiscountry's history and imagine if

(33:20):
Mike Rounds goes down, howthat could affect this country. But,
and, and help folks in SouthDakota. So. All right, Zac, I really
appreciate you taking sometime to visit with me and, and listen
to my rumblings and ramblings.You clearly know your business what.
One final question, and thenwe'll say thank you and, and let

(33:44):
you have a enjoyable weekend.So what else are you seeing across
your clients? You know, thenumbers for some of your clients
across the country. Are thereany trend, any trends that are promising
or scary or keeping you up at night?
Yeah, I mean, I would say I'mvery optimistic. And I've, I've lived

(34:04):
through the early years of mycareer, the 2006, 2008 wave years,
Democratic wave years. There'sbeen some Republican wave years in
the interim as well. And Iwill say a lot of what we're seeing
in 2026 reminds me in of 2006,of 2008. Those are years where they
just weren't. It's not justthat they were good cycles for Democrats,
but Democrats won pretty mucheverything that was competitive in

(34:27):
2006, 2008. Democrats won in,in places where Democrats are not
supposed to win in 2006, 2008.And I think we're seeing some of
the, some of the, the stormclouds for Republicans starting to
resemble, resemble those,those cycles. So I think that's compelling.
And really what happens inwave years is I, I think of it as

(34:48):
the two eyes, they start toalign. One of that is the intensity
advantage. Democratic votersare angry. Republican voters are
sort of dispirited from whatthey're seeing out of the, out of
the Trump administration. MostRepublican voters didn't vote for
what they're seeing out of theTrump administration. You know, they

(35:09):
were hoodwinked in some waysby what Trump promised. Lower prices
has not been delivered. No,no, no. More wars has not been delivered,
among many other problemscoming out of the Trump administration.
So Democratic voters are angryand motivated. Republican voters
are dispirited and sluggish.That you see that in special elections

(35:29):
that we, over the last year,plus with the New Jersey, Virginia
gubernatorial elections whereDemocrats did really well. The primary
turnout we've seen has beenvery indicative of Democrats being
motivated. So that's one ofthe two elements that has to happen
in a political wave, theintensity advantage. And we see Democrats
have the intensity advantage.The other, the second I is independence.

(35:53):
Independents break in the samedirection and we actually see that
starting to develop as well.Independents in Most elections are
50, 50, 52, 48. You know,pretty, pretty competitive throughout
the election. In a, in a cyclelike 2006 and 2008, independent broke
60, 40 for Democrats. InRepublican wave elections like 2010,

(36:15):
2014, independents broke 60,40 for Republicans. And we're starting
to see independent votersharden and solidify against Republicans,
against the status quo inWashington. And that's when waves
happen, is when you havethose, the two eyes, the double barrel
eyes there, the intensityadvantage and the independent voters

(36:36):
breaking in that samedirection. We're just in June. There's
miles to go before we sleephere. But it really seems like the,
the elements are developingfor a really, really strong election
year for Democrats andRepublicans taking it on the chin
in a way that we haven't seenin perhaps 20 years in a generation

(36:58):
of politics. And when thosewave years develop, a Republican
like a Mike Rounds gets beat,a Republican Democrat like Jamie
Ager in western NorthCarolina, breakthrough. This is the
cycle when those types ofraces don't just get competitive,
but really have a chance tobreak through.
All right. Well, Zac McCrarydown in Alabama today. I really appreciate

(37:20):
your time, your insights.You're really kind all this time
to speak with myself and ourlisteners and.
Yeah, so much fun. David,thanks for having me and always,
always happy to.
And where can folks learn alittle bit more about you and your
firm if they want to?
Yeah, yeah. You know, ImpactResearch is our firm. You know, I've,
I've got a Twitter accountpeople can find. So, so yeah, just,

(37:43):
just Google me and you know,see what I've got to say. And you
can find out more about ourfirm. We, we uphold for I, I, we,
there's members of the squadthat we pull for and there's, there's
some more sort of moderate toconservative Democrats that we pull
for. So I enjoy the abilitythat to run the gamut and, and pull

(38:03):
for and be, be part ofcampaigns across the country, all
sorts of different races, allsorts of different candidates. That's,
that's what keeps my job a lotof fun in my mind. And folks can
find out more about me andImpact Research just with a simple,
simple Google.
All right, well, thank you somuch again, Zac. You're a terrific
guy for doing this and forhelping these candidates in races

(38:25):
that have a, a little more,more headwind than maybe some in
safe Democratic districts.You're a terrific guy for doing this.
And this has been muck u.