NFL Week 13 Break down

nmp - better bettors and jb break down week 13 NFL

Episode Transcript

(00:26):
Music. What's going on?

(01:04):
Not move nation. Welcome to the not move podcast.
Today is November 30th at 8:30 AM Eastern Time.
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(01:26):
and NFL Pro shops and W energy drinks.
All right, first and foremost, let's talk about some weather
here today looking at rotogrinders.com,
rotogrinders.com, their weather report think they do a great job
with reporting any weather concerns.

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So let's see what we got here. San Francisco at Cleveland,
sustained winds around 25 mph with wind gusts around 35 mph,
which can impact some longer throws and kicks, is what
they're saying here. Rams at Carolina, some light

(02:15):
rain is possible, though it doesn't look like a total
washout, is what they're saying.Winds stay light, around 10 mph
maximum. Atlanta at New York Jets, a
steady light rain early and thenanother round of rain.

(02:39):
It should taper off there for a little bit and then another
round of rain, likely late in the game.
They're saying, they're saying it's going to be wet but not a
true downpour. Winds 10 mph Max could cause for

(03:02):
some slick conditions. Saints at Dolphins, A rain
shower or a spotty downpour is possible.
Winds 10 to 15 mph. Buffalo at Pittsburgh, Rain

(03:23):
looks clear during the game. Winds likely over 15 mph early
in the game. Gusts around 30 mph and then
winds should decrease a little bit throughout the as the game
progresses. Might have some 25 mile per hour
gusts near the end of the game. It's also cold there.

(03:49):
They're saying mid 30°. I think that could be another
advantageous split that we look into.
You know, sometimes I look into like turf versus grass splits
and home versus away splits for certain players.
I think, you know, temperature splits is could take us to

(04:14):
another level here. You know, we're getting into
those colder months now. So maybe some of these players
are not too good in the cold weather or that they're even
better in colder weather. Denver at Washington tonight.
Looks like there's going to be some wind gusts.

(04:36):
Let's see, maybe around 30 mph is what they're saying at times.
So that could impact some longerthrows or kicks.
All right, so let's go through some injury updates for today's
slate. I'm looking at the FanDuel Daily

(04:57):
Fantasy app. I think they have maybe like a
partnership or something with rotogrinders.com because their
player injury updates are identical at times.
So I think they do a pretty goodjob, a really good job with
player injury updates. First guy on the list here.

(05:18):
Baker Mayfield questionable due to a shoulder injury but is
likely to play is what I'm saying.
Drake London, knee issue, wide receiver for the Falcons has
been ruled out. By the way, in case you guys

(05:43):
don't know, Baker Mayfield quarterback for the Tampa Bay
Buccaneers. That's why I mentioned first,
questionable with a shoulder issue but likely to play.
And Drake London, Bucky Irving running back for the Tampa Bay
Buccaneers shoulder slash foot injury is is questionable to

(06:04):
play but is expected to suit up.I think he's missing time if I'm
not mistaken. Yeah, his last game that he
played was September 28th against Philadelphia.
So he's missed quite some time. Even if he does suit up in this
game. I would try to find some if
you're interested in in this game or interested in Bucky

(06:26):
Irving. I would see if he was, if he's
going to be limited at any capacity, sometimes when
players, you know, miss several months that they could be
limited in that in that first game back or their first few
games back. So Chris Olaf, a wide receiver

(06:46):
for the New Orleans Saints, is questionable with a back injury
but is expected to play Marvin Harrison junior appendix.
He had, I think he had surgery, so he's expected to play today.

(07:10):
Like he's missed a couple games.His last game was November 9th,
so I would see if he would be limited at any capacity there.
JJ McCarthy, quarterback for theMinnesota Vikings, has been
ruled out due to a concussion, so it looks like rookie Max

(07:31):
Brosmer. I hope I'm pronouncing that
correctly. Do the best I can with these
pronunciations. But yeah, rookie Max Brosmer
will make his first NFL start inthat game.
Tyler Warren, questionable with an illness today.

(07:52):
He is the tight end for the Indianapolis Colts.
He's been doing great this season.
So if he's unable to go today, that could be a big downgrade
for the Colts. So we'll try to keep up to date
with that as the show progresses.
Alvin Kamara, running back for the New Orleans Saints out

(08:12):
today. Looks like Devin Neal is going
to fill in that lead running back spot for the Saints.
I don't know much about Devin Neil, but what I do know is that
he used to play for the Kansas Jayhawks.

(08:32):
So for you Jayhawks fans out there, we'll we'll look into
that a little bit later on. But he's going up against a a
weak rush defense. So I can see him maybe having a
good game. Obviously, Michael Pinnix,

(08:55):
junior, is still out quarterbackfor the Atlanta Falcons.
Zonopin Knight, running back forthe Arizona Cardinals,
questionable due to a knee injury, but is expected to suit
up. Dalton Kincaid, tied in for the

(09:17):
Buffalo Bills, is questionable with a hamstring issue today.
Joshua Palmer, wide receiver forthe Buffalo Bills.
It's questionable to play in this game today.

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Tyler Higbee, still out for the Rams.
A Kong Woo tight end for the Tennessee Titans is questionable
due to a foot injury but is expected to play.
Michael Mayer tied in for the Las Vegas Raiders.

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Backup Titan to Brock Bowers. He will not play today due to an
ankle issue. Jerome Ford, running back for
the Cleveland Browns, backup forJudkins, is questionable to play

(10:27):
today due to a hamstring issue. Tori Horton, wide receiver for
the Seattle Seahawks, is still out it looks like.
Curtis Samuel, wide receiver forthe Bills, out 22, Atwell 22.
Atwell still in the IR, wide receiver for the Rams.

(10:52):
That looks like about it for themost notable injuries.
There's some other injuries hereand there on the offensive side
of the ball. I don't really look for look
into the defensive injuries a whole lot unless I have time,
which I just didn't this week, you know, with it being, you
know, Thanksgiving week and all that had a lot, a lot of stuff
going on. I crammed in a lot of lot of

(11:14):
this research that that I'll be talking about today, yesterday
and this morning. So hopefully you guys
understand, but we're we're still going to talk about some
good stuff here today. If you guys have any questions
about any specific player props,feel free to let me know or any

(11:35):
game in particular that you wantme to cover, feel free to let me
know. You know, I'm not necessarily
here to give you guys picks. I mean, I'll give you which way
I'm leaning towards, but I'm really here to just hang out
with you guys and give you guys some information that you may
not have had, you know, before, before you tuned in.

(12:03):
So let's see. Hey, Judy.
Hey, good morning Blessed up P Let's see, what game do we want
to talk about first? You know, being a Cowboys fan,
you know, Deion Sanders used to play with the Cowboys.

(12:25):
That's kind of when I became a Cowboys fan.
So I'm excited to see, you know,Shadour Sanders today, get San
Francisco. Not necessarily the first game I
want to talk about, but I am hoping the best for Shadour
Sanders for sure. The Rams game, OK, cool.

(12:47):
Yeah, let's go cover that one first.
Like I said guys, my research time was limited this week, but
we'll still talk about some goodstuff here.
So Rams at Carolina, this game is being played on turf.
For any of you that are interested in those turf versus

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grass splits, Carolina leads theall time series 13 to 10 against
the Rams. Matt Stafford, quarterback for
the Rams has a three and three career record against Carolina.
Matt Stafford His over under on passing yards is 251 1/2 but he
needs 154 passing yards to move into 8th place on the all time

(13:32):
passing passing leaders list. Passing Yards leaders list He
would pass Matt Ryan if he got 154 passing yards today.
Also Devante Adams, wide receiver for the Rams, needs 2
receiving touchdowns to move into 7th place.
On the all time receiving touchdowns leaders list, he
would pass Antonio Gates. Also Devante Adams, a wide

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receiver for the Rams, needs just two touchdowns.
So if he got one by, you know, arushing touchdown on the odd
chance that he gets a rushing touchdown today.
But yeah, he needs 2 touchdowns total to move into 15th place on
the all time touchdowns leaders list.
He would pass. He would pass Antonio Gates and

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John Riggins on that list. Now, last that I checked, the
Rams were favored by 10 points and the over unders 45 1/2.
The Rams do have a better recordagainst the spread this season
than Carolina. And the Rams are 8 and three
against the spread. Carolina seven and five against
the spread, but the Rams are also three and O against the

(14:43):
spread as a road favorite, whereas Carolina's three and
one, which is still respectable.You know, Carolina's seven or
excuse me, 3 and one against thespread as a home underdog.
Now the Rams carry a nine and two record into this matchup,
having won six games in a row. They beat Tampa Bay 34 to 7 last

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week and then Carolinas on A1 game losing streak as they lost
to the San Francisco 49ers 20 to9 last week.
Ivan says, you know, I'm a run it back again.
Schubert Hubbard over 16 1/2 rushing yards.
I also took 18 1/2 on DK Yeah. So Hubbard's gone over the 18

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1/2 line in seven out of 10 games this season.
He's had 10 plus rushing yards and 10 out of 10 games this
season. If you guys were looking for an
alternate line with Hubbard, andthere's going to be some other
things I'm going to talk about with Hubbard here.
I'm looking at my notes last week and seeing if there were

(15:54):
any any splits that I saw with him that could have been
advantageous for us today. Not really seeing anything that
I wrote down last week. But if you go to ESPN.com, I do
have some players splits on, on some on some games today, some

(16:19):
players. But with Hubbard, I don't have
anything right now. I'm kind of looking right, right
this second. Looks like he has more rushing
yards. That's an inconsistent split
really maybe this the turf versus grass splits.

(16:39):
Let me just check this out real quick.
Turf versus grass looks like some inconsistencies with his
turf versus grass splits, home versus away splits and other
splits and I'm seeing here. But you know the Rams allow the
8th fewest rushing yards to running backs this season.

(17:01):
They actually ranked 12th beforethe week started in rushing
yards allowed per game. So they have an above average
rush defense. Same with their past defense
though it's pretty solid. They ranked 13th and passing
yards allowed per game. Carolina has a pretty balanced
play calling style. They ranked 19th and passing

(17:22):
play percentage. So they do call a higher
percentage of rushing plays relative to other teams in the
league, but not by much. It'd be nice to see like Hubbard
versus Rams statistics. I think I've looked at that this

(17:42):
morning and it took me to statmuse.com and he didn't get a
whole lot of playing time. I think he had seeing that he's
that he's had six rushing yards against them.

(18:02):
Let me just see real quick if I can see, because he's only
played five seasons. Should take me just a second
here to see if he's ever played the Rams before.
Yeah. I hope you guys are having a
great morning. Hope you guys had a great
Thanksgiving week. Thank you for joining today.
Yeah, he had only two carries and six rushing attempt or,
excuse me, two carries and six rushing yards in his only career

(18:25):
game against the Rams. Didn't didn't have a touchdown
in that game. Who did he play last week?
He played against San Francisco,who last week San Francisco was
a little weaker against that that run than at least through

(18:50):
that running back position, rushing yards allowed to running
backs. The Niners were a little bit
weaker last week than the Rams. And what did he get against the
Niners 16? I think it's cutting it close,
man, But I you know, I don't seeanything that makes me want to
just steer, steer you away from that play.

(19:12):
I think it's going to be close though.
I'd have to lean towards it going over too.
But yeah, weather is very important today for sure, man.
And did we mention, you know, wewe we did mention that this game
has some light rain possibilities.
Excuse me. Yeah, the winds are supposed to

(19:35):
be a little little light in thisone, but looks like there could
be some slick conditions, which makes me, you know, like ball
carriers a little bit more in this one.
Typically. Not saying that, you know,
players can't pass in bad weather, but but yeah, man,

(19:55):
you're you're you're right aboutthat.
Looks like there's going to be some rain in this one.
You know I mentioned Matt Stafford needs 154 passing yards
to move into 8th place on the all time Passings leaders list.
He would pass Matt Ryan. Carolina ranks 15th and passing

(20:18):
yards allowed per game this season.
And Carolina ranks 19th and rushing yards allowed per game.
So Carolina's weaker relative toother teams in the league and
rushing yards allowed per game and passing yards allowed per
game. But the Rams accumulate more
passing yards per game relative to other teams in the league.

(20:39):
And there's really not a big difference between Carolina's
passing and rushing yards allowed per game.
The Rams have a pretty balanced play calling style, a very
balanced they you know, they ranked 16th and passing play
percentage. So right in the middle and you
know, with that rain today, you could see the Rams call a few

(21:00):
more rushing plays and than whatthey're they're used to.
Also, they're favored by 10 points.
So, you know, being being favored by 10 points to me,
there's a bigger likelihood thatthe Rams run away with this game
are up, you know, in the pretty big in the third quarter, fourth

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quarter and opt to run the ball a little bit more.
But just because that line is 10, you know, doesn't doesn't
mean that it will happen, right?I mean, in Carolina, once again,
they've been pretty solid against the spread this season
and three and one against the spread as a home underdog.
So maybe they do keep it relatively close.

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I know they're probably hungrierfor a win today than the Rams
are. Not saying the Rams are not, you
know, but Carolina six and six and they're on A1 game losing
streak. This is a big game for Carolina.
You know, the Rams could afford to lose this.
They're nine and two. They're on a six game win
streak. But yeah, Matthew Stafford over

(22:06):
under 251 1/2 passing yards. He's gone over that line in six
out of 11 games this season. If you're looking for an
alternate line, he's had the 225plus passing yards in seven out
of 11 games this season, 200 plus passing yards in seven out
of 11 games this season as well,and then 175 plus passing yards

(22:30):
in 10 out of 11 games this season.
He's gone over the 251 1/2 in inthree out of six career games
against Carolina. I wonder.
What about the alternate lines? I think I would have wrote it
down if they were. OK, here we go.

(22:51):
So Matt Stafford has had 200 plus passing yards and five out
of six career games against Carolina, according to
statnews.com. And his lowest total he's ever
had against Carolina is 178. So I think there's a, you know,
a real good chance that he hits that 154 passing yard mark today

(23:13):
and then obviously 175. I feel like it's pretty
comfortable there. And then, you know, passing
touchdowns. He's had one plus passing
touchdown in five out of six career games against Carolina, 2
plus and two out of six career games against Carolina.
And he also had a 5 touchdown passing game against Carolina in

(23:35):
one of those games. Carolina does allow the 12th
most passing yards to quarterbacks this season.
So yeah, I mean, I would have tolean towards Stafford getting
that today. Obviously a concern would be
that the Rams run away with thisone and he's doesn't have to
pass a lot. But you know, kind of thinking

(23:58):
Carolina with with as hungry as I suspect them to be having that
six and six record. I'm kind of thinking Carolina
hangs around. Let's talk about Nakua, wide

(24:18):
receiver for the Rams. Now Carolina has limited
receiving yards to wide receivers and receptions to wide
receivers pretty decently this season.
Carolina ranks 12th best and receiving yards allowed to wide
receivers and 9th best and receptions allowed to wide
receivers. But the reason why I'm starting

(24:39):
with Puka Nakua 1st instead of Defonte Adams, well, there there
is no reason. Actually, I thought, I thought,
you know, I, I did see throughout my research that
Carolina has allowed the 6th most 40 plus yard receptions
this season. Nikua hasn't had any 40 plus
yard receptions, but Devante, Adams and Whittington have had

(25:03):
one apiece. So let's start with Adams.
And I already, I already mentioned that Adams needs what,
2 touchdowns, 2 receiving touchdowns to hit a milestone or
just two touchdowns in general to hit another milestone?
Devante Adams over under 55 1/2 receiving yards.
He's gone over this line and seven out of 11 games this

(25:24):
season. He's had 50 plus receiving yards
and eight out of 11 games this season. 40 plus in the same
amount that he's had 50 + 8 out of 11 games.
He's had 30 plus receiving yardsin 10 out of 11 games this
season. If you're looking for a safer
play, Adams 30 plus receiving yards once again, 10 out of 11
games this season. He's gone over that and then

(25:47):
he's gone over the 55 1/2 receiving yard line and three
out of six career games against Carolina.
He's had 40 plus receiving yardsin five out of six games against
Carolina, and then he scored exactly 1 touchdown in two out
of six career games against Carolina.
Now what I'm looking at pro-football-reference.com.

(26:11):
Devante Adams leads the entire NFL in red zone targets.
And when I'm looking at the red zone statistics here, the Rams
ranked second best in red zone attempts per game.
Carolina ranks 11th and red zoneattempts allowed per game.

(26:32):
So yeah, Rams have a pretty decent advantage there.
Also, when the Rams are getting into the red zone, they're
converting touchdowns pretty good.
One moment, please. I gotta get a drink.

(26:52):
Yeah, the Rams, they ranked 6th best in the NFL in red zone
conversion rate. And what I mean is that they're
converting touchdowns when they enter that red zone at a high
rate. Carolina's defense has been
pretty solid in holding their opponents from not just entering
the red zone, but converting touchdowns as well.

(27:13):
But the Rams offense ranks better the instead of that
Carolina defense. So yeah, I'm thinking that red
zone attack here for for the Rams today could be a good spot
to target. Now I want to see where
Carolina's vulnerable at. They've allowed a good chunk of

(27:35):
of rushing touchdowns to runningbacks this season.
So if you like Kyron Williams, who who who's never played
against Carolina throughout his career, but if you like Kyron
Williams or you know, maybe Blake Corum for an anytime
touchdown today, I could see that.

(27:57):
But I want to see where Carolinahas been the most vulnerable
relative to other teams in the league and allowing touchdowns.
I want to see Matt Stafford's rushing statistics against
Carolina. I want to see if he's ever,
excuse me, snuck into the end zone against Carolina.

(28:18):
Not something I'm going to spenda whole lot of time trying to
research if I can't find it realquick.
Let's see. No, he hasn't had a rushing
touchdown, but I just thought I'd look real quick because
because Carolina's allowed threerushing touchdowns to to
quarterbacks this season. Not, not a ton, but it was worth

(28:41):
looking up. What about wide receiver
touchdowns allowed by Carolina? They've done good in preventing
wide receiver touchdowns. So I think with that with that
spread being the way it is, I'm looking at tight end to I think
that with that spread with the way it is, I mean, maybe if you
like Parkinson for some reason, Colby Parkinson, any time

(29:05):
touchdown I could see possibly. But yeah, I'm just going to have
to go with the chalk here with, you know, probably Kyron
Williams. It's going to be man.
Parkinson actually has 10 red zone targets this season.
He he ranks second on the Rams. That's interesting.

(29:26):
Carolina, they have been vulnerable relative to other
teams in the league and allowingtight end touchdowns.
They've allowed five this season.
The Bengals have allowed thirteen tight end receiving
touchdowns this season. But then the next most, you
know, receiving touchdowns allowed is San Francisco and

(29:48):
Pittsburgh, some other teams with 7.
So I think I think Parkinson could be a maybe a sneaky play
here. How many touchdowns does
Parkinson have this season? And I know he probably, you
know, hasn't had a ton of playing time, but look, man,
Parkinson has had a touchdown inhis last three games.

(30:14):
I would say, you know, that would be my favorite pass
catching. It's it's tough to go against
Devante Adams. No, let's not let let's not get
let's not get crazy here. I mean, just relative to the
other teams in the league, though, Carolina's prevented

(30:36):
those touchdowns from wide receivers pretty well.
But let's not get crazy here. But yeah, my first touchdown
look would be Kyron Williams forthe Rams, and then Devante Adams
and then Colby Parkinson. I accidentally put Stafford in a
slip for 0.5 rushing yards. Now I'm going to sweat this

(31:00):
game. 0.5 rushing yards for Stafford.
Carolina's allowed the third fewest rushing yards to to
quarterbacks this season. But you're not asking for a lot,
right? You're asking for one rushing
yard, which he's gone over in four out of six career games

(31:22):
against Carolina. I'm not going to take the time
to look at like his splits or anything like that, But I'm
rooting for you, man. I'm rooting for you.
Rico Dowdle, over under 18 1/2 receiving yards.

(31:44):
Let's go take a look here. I do expect, you know, with that
line being the way it is, that the Panthers have to pass the
ball a little bit more today, call a higher percentage of
passing plays than they're used to.
Rams, they rank, you know, I, I,I talked about how they have a

(32:06):
pretty balanced defense. You know, they ranked 13th and
passing yards allowed per game. They rank 12th and rushing yards
allowed per game. So they're pretty decent on both
sides of the the ball defensively.
Dowdle you know, I just didn't get a whole my usual time to

(32:29):
look into these props. But you know, he's gone over
what line did you have? 18 1/2?
Let me let me fix my line here. I had 17 1/2.
I just don't have any information there.
But you know, he's gone over that line and the 18 1/2
receiving our line and 1234 out of 12 games this season.

(32:57):
So he's gone over that line and four out of 12.
Now, he did go over in his last two games, but those were on the
road. He's at home today, but he has
he has gone over that line twiceat home this season against

(33:20):
Miami and Dallas. And then I'm going to try to
look to see where the Rams are vulnerable in regards to yards
allowed. It looks like they locked down
the tight end the best, but it looks like they're about the
same against receivers and running back.
Receiving yards allowed just about the same.

(33:46):
You know we talked about potential bad weather that could
cause for some dump offs, right?I would.
I'd really be interested in the Dowdle splits.
I'm going to look at my notes last week to see if I if I have
Dowdell splits available here. What I do have is that Dowdell

(34:12):
has more yards per catch when his team wins or ties rather
than loses in every season that he's played in.
So I would give Dowdell a biggerlikelihood of getting 19 or more
receiving yards if the Panthers win this game.
But if they do not win this game, wouldn't have to lean

(34:34):
towards them not going over that.
Then Lee get over 22 1/2 receiving yards over under.
Didn't have a chance to look into Lee get but you had him at
22 1/2. That's what I saw him at as
well. Let's just go see how many times

(34:55):
he's gone over that this season to get.
I'll have to do a little bit more research on the fly today.
This was one game that I didn't have a whole lot, a whole lot
done. But I'll be much more prepared
next week hopefully, unless something happens.

(35:19):
But yeah, 23 plus receiving yards for the get 123.
He's gone over that line and three out of 10 games this
season. But if we took that hook off,
Ivan, if if, if, if somehow you can get that hook off to make it

(35:40):
22 plus receiving yards. He's had exactly 22 receiving
yards in two games this season. So you're increasing your, you
know, the amount of games that he's gone over that by two with
taking that hook off. He's had 22 plus receiving yards

(36:03):
in five out of 10 games this season.
I also want to know the target share for Carolina.
You know, it's going to be McMillan for sure.
And then, yeah, we get OK. Yeah, I'd be.

(36:26):
I'd be looking for that, that possession guy, maybe just
because of the weather. And the Rams do a good job at
limiting opponent yards per completion.
They ranked third best in the NFL.
So I don't know, man. I like, you know, I think I'd

(36:48):
rather lean towards McMillan again here today.
You know, I liked him in there in Carolina's last game and I
think I'd have to lean towards McMillan again here today.
Now, Mcmillan's gone over his 561/2 receiving line in seven out
of 12 games this season comparedto league get going over his and

(37:08):
only three out of 10 games of the season.
And even if we took that hook off with Leigh get and he yeah,
we got him at 5 out of 10, at 22plus receiving guards this
season. McMillan still, you know, has
gone over in a higher percentageof his games this season than
Leigh get. Now McMillan, if we took him for

(37:30):
50 plus, we're still looking at 7 out of 12 games that he's gone
over that this season. But 40 plus, now we're looking
at 9 out of 12 games where Mcmillan's had 40 plus receiving
yards and then he's had 30 plus receiving yards and 10 out of 11
games this season. So I think, yeah, with him being

(37:54):
that leader in target share, right?
And for this being a really big game for Carolina, yeah, sure,
any given Sunday, right, Anything can happen.
But if I'm Carolina, I'm really looking to to utilize my best
players that in this one, you know.
So yeah, I'd have to lean more towards the get there.

(38:20):
What else here? You know, that's about, you
know, all I really have for thisgame overall, Yeah, I give the
the Rams a big passing advantage, Carolina a good size
rushing advantage. Believe it or not, they've done
great at running the ball this season, picking up yardage.

(38:44):
The Rams, though, big third downconversion advantage, a big red
zone conversion advantage, a bigred zone attempts per game
advantage, a big sacks on the quarterback advantage and a big
turnover differential advantage.I mean, the Rams obviously are a
very dangerous team. And you know, I think the way

(39:04):
Carolina wins this game, if, if they do win, I got, I got to
still go with the Rams to at least win this one, right?
But I think the recipe for success for Carolina today is
running the ball, doing what they do best, running the ball.
They rank 11th and rushing yardsper game compared to their

(39:27):
ranking 27th and passing yards per game.
So, you know, I think they got to stick with what they know
best, what they do best. But that's tough against, you
know, the Rams if you're if you're down by 10 points at
halftime to continue running theball, you know, so I think
Carolina's got to jump out earlyif they if they have a chance in

(39:50):
this one. I know this is a like, you know,
this a big game for Carolina andthey've just, they've been
playing with some heart. Just by the end of the season
last year, you know, we go checkout the NFL standings real
quick. It's getting near that time, you
know, or we start looking at this playoff picture and you

(40:17):
know, the Rams have that top spot.
The bears are are breathing downthe Rams neck here for that top
spot. So this is definitely not a game
at the Rams. I mean, yes, they can afford to
lose, but pretty sure that they want to definitely hold on to
that one seed the Panthers. If they if they drop this one,

(40:44):
they'll they'll be 6 and seven and the Niners are in that seven
seed at 8 and four. Man, this is I'm not going to,
you know, I do expect the Rams to win this one.
But yeah, give me Carolina plus plus 10 in this game, Texans

(41:08):
versus Colts. CJCJ Stroud is back.
He better do well or he's about to lose his job at that number
one spot. Yeah, let's go look at it.
Yeah, the Colts past defense is weak, if I'm not mistaken.
Yeah, the Colts past defense ranks 28th and passing yards

(41:30):
allowed per game. So yeah, you're absolutely
right, man. This is definitely a game where
CJ Stroud's got to show up, showout over under 234 1/2 passing
yards. Last that I checked, the Colts
have allowed the six most passing yards to quarterbacks
this season when I checked before the week started.

(41:54):
And this is yeah, this is the Colts biggest weakness
defensively. The Colts have have defended
against that run very well. They're ranked 6th and rushing
yards allowed per game. And Houston actually has more
ranks better in passing yards per game.
So this this is actually a good match up for the OR for the

(42:14):
Texans, just because I think theTexans have a better chance
against a team with a bad pass defence and a good rush defense
than the other way around. A good pass defense and a bad
rush defense. Because this is what the Colts
do best in regards to passing yards per game relative to other
teams in the league. And the Colts call or excuse me,

(42:37):
the Texans call a high percentage of passing plays
relative to other teams in the league.
They ranked 10th in passing playpercentage.
So yeah, let's go look at CJ Stroud's pass attempts and if
you you know any anybody else has any other questions about

(42:58):
any props, feel free to to let us know.
If you guys like anything today,feel free to let us know.
Who do you guys got in the the Texans and Colts game today?
I'm thinking Colts are much better team, but let's talk
about it. Let's talk about it here.
I think Houston can maybe surprise some people in this

(43:20):
one. Passing attempts allowed by
Indianapolis this season to quarterbacks.
I mean, yeah, Ivan, they've allowed the the 4th most passing
attempts. Let me get out my calculator

(43:41):
here. 422 passing attempts to quarterbacks and we'll divide
that by the amount of games thatthey've played.
So they're per game. The Colts are allowing 38.36

(44:06):
pass attempts per game, and thenCJ Stroud need to go look at,
I'm going to add up all of his past attempts, you know, and I

(44:30):
don't know what line you gave me.
I'm just going to see if I can come up with a line by myself
here. 27 + 24 + 38 + 28 + 27 + 49 + 39.
Was he injured in that game against Denver?

(44:57):
If he if he was, yeah, he was inthe second quarter.
So I don't want to count that game against him because he only
had 10 passing attempts. So I'm not going to count that
game against him and I won't divide.
I'll, I'll leave that game out. When I divide the 200 and 22132
passing attempts that he's had this season, I'll divide that by

(45:19):
7 to get 33, you know, Stroud 33.14 pass attempts and then
I'll add that number with the 38.36.
But the Colts are allowing and divide that by two.
So you get about 3536 pass attempts for Stroud just based

(45:47):
on that calculation alone. Obviously we can get more
specific, you know, but let's see what you had his line at or
what his line actually is. Let's go take a look for past
attempts. Usually I think it's pretty
close, you know, to what I calculate looking at 34, 34 plus

(46:13):
at -115 on DK. I got him, I got him at 3536
pass attempts today, 33 1/2 overunder at -115.
Obviously there's some other stuff we could look at, you
know, like his turf versus grasssplits and stuff like that, home

(46:38):
versus away. I think the fact that he's going
up against, you know, a really bad pass defense, I feel like
the Colts or excuse me, the Texans will have to throw the
ball in order to be successful today.
I think this is a good game to do that in and the fact that
they're they're 3 1/2 point underdogs.
I mean, one would think that they, you know, have to play a

(47:06):
little catch up at some point inthis game.
We're at many points in this game.
I think that looks pretty solid there.
Ivan Betters, which running backdo you like in this game for the
Texans, Marks or Chubb? Let's see.

(47:28):
You know, I did mention Indianapolis's rush defense is
really good, but just because you're going up against a good
rush defense doesn't necessarilymean that you can't pick up some
good, good yardage here. Woody Marks over under 54 1/2
rushing yards. He's gone over that line in four

(47:49):
out of 11 games this season. Even if we took that to 50 plus,
we're still looking at 4 out of 11 games this season as well.
Once we get to 40 plus rushing yards, we're looking at 5 out of
11 games, 30 + 5 out of 11 games, 20 + 8 out of 11 games.
Whereas Nick Chubb has gone overhis 18 1/2 rushing line and

(48:10):
eight out of 11 games this season.
He's had 10 plus in all 11 gamesthis season.
I'm just based on that alone. I'm thinking Nick Chubb also,
you know, we're entering those, those later stages in the NFL

(48:31):
season. Houston, I mean, they they're
definitely hungry for a win right now with that six and five
record against, you know, they're, they got the eight
seed. They're they're on the bubble
right now. Yeah, I know Woody Marks is good
and everything, but in in his rushing yard total is 54 1/2,

(48:54):
right? So they're expecting him to get
more, more rushing yards than Nick Chubb.
But if I'm, if I'm Houston todayand I'm running the ball, I'm
doing it with a with a veteran, you know, that can take care of
the ball. That has been there has that

(49:16):
experience in some in a playoff like field game playoff like
field game for Houston. Nick Chubb versus versus Colt
statistics. I'm sure we'll find the fact.
I'm sure we'll find Nick Chubb'sdone good against the Colts.

(49:36):
If he's played against them throughout his career, which I'm
sure he probably has. It doesn't look like it's going
to be just available as quick, that information, available as
quick as I want. But you know, Nick, Nick Chubb

(50:00):
doesn't have the role that he once did in the NFL, right?
So I wouldn't be, you know, completely shocked.
In fact, I expect him to have gone over this line if he's ever
played the Colts in any career game besides maybe his rookie

(50:21):
season. I'm looking browsing his game
log right now and I just don't Idon't see that he's played the
the the Colts at all. He hasn't.
He's never played against the Colts.
Now, what did we say this this game is being played on turf.
So I kind of want to know and where is it at in in

(50:42):
Indianapolis? So I kind of want to know his
turf versus grass blitz here. I'm sure we'll probably find
some inconsistencies, but let's just look real quick with Chubb.

(51:04):
Yeah, it's it's back and forth between throughout his career.
What about Woody Marks this season though?
Because he's a rookie, right? And just and just go look at
Woody Marks, his turf versus grass splits this season.
He's has more yards per carry ongrass than turf.

(51:26):
So yeah, I mean, I'm leaning towards Chubb today, man.
Not just necessarily statistically on going over his
line, but also just, you know, that's how I'm feeling
instinctively. His line is now at 33 1/2.
Nick Chubb, what I've seen, you know, if you guys like player

(51:54):
props, man, I would look at these player props, right when
they dropped these lines, man, Isee these lines getting bumped
up, especially if you like taking the over on player props.
I see these lines jump up a lot from the time that they open and
close. Oh, I think you were talking

(52:18):
about Stroud, right? Yeah, Stroud.
So but yeah, but even just with other player props too, I mean,
I've seen lines jump up a lot from the time they open, you
know? So I took the Colts under team
total under 25 1/2, says Ivan. He believes he altered it.

(52:43):
Let's go. Well, yeah, let's go take a look
at some stuff here. Sounds, sounds good, man.
So, and I'm glad that you're bringing all a lot of this up
because some of these games I just don't have, you know, a lot
of readily information available.
I do have some player props thatI'll go over in this game that I

(53:07):
that I am prepared for. But yeah, let's look at that
team total. Let's look at the team total.
So we'll go to team props here, and I'm seeing that the Colts
over under team total, it's 23 1/2.

(53:29):
I won't do this for every game, but the way I like to start off
with team totals is, you know, looking at points per game.
Points per game Indianapolis Colts are playing at home, they

(53:51):
ranked first in the NFL and points per game at home. 34.2
points per game at home, but points allowed per game.

(54:14):
Houston allows the fewest on theroad, 16.8 allowed.
So let's divide that by what we got, 34.2 + 16.8.
Divide that by two, We're looking at 25.5 points for the

(54:41):
polls based on that statistic alone.
Now I'll go look at the Texans versus Colts history, right And
I want to know how many points per game the Colts have scored
in the last few games that they've played.

(55:03):
Houston in Indianapolis, they scored 27/19/31, 3127 out of the
last five. You know, I think 5's a decent
sample size when we're looking at this stuff, 27 + 19.

(55:27):
Usually the bigger the sample size, the better, but you know,
we get 27 points based on that and then 27, you know, plus plus
25 1/2 divided by two. I'm seeing like 26.25 points for

(55:47):
the Colts today. So probably like somewhere
between 24 and 27 just based on that alone.
But I think that, you know, we also have to consider that
Houston's got to be real hungry for a win in this one.
So, you know, maybe, maybe you maybe you found some other stuff

(56:10):
that you like about it. But Giants are going to beat the
Patriots tomorrow. Yeah, man, it seems like the the
Giants have had their numbers since, you know, Eli Manning and
Brady and their those Super Bowlmatchups.
Yeah, I'm looking forward to that game as well.

(56:30):
Man, That'd be, that'd be great.That'd be that'd be great to
see. Is Winston starting at
quarterback tomorrow? Uh, Dart looks like Dart is
back. Cool.
Yeah, I think I, I think that, you know, Dart gives him the

(56:51):
best chance to win. But yeah, I'm glad I got to see
Winston shine a little bit this year.
But you know, let's let's talk about Jonathan Taylor.
You know, Houston has a good rush defense.
They ranked 5th best in rushing yards allowed per game.
They ranked even better, better in passing yards allowed per
game. They ranked third best in

(57:13):
passing yards allowed per game. But let's talk about Jonathan
Taylor over the 87 1/2 rushing yard line.
You know, some of these guys andJonathan Taylor is one of those
guys who I really don't care whohe's going up against, what kind
of defense he's going up against, he can get it done
against anybody. I feel like, in fact, there was

(57:34):
a game that he went up against abad Miami rush defense week one
and only had 71 rushing yards, you know?
So what is Pittsburgh rank? Let me get back to this game.
What is Pittsburgh ranked this season?
Oh, they're they're the bad passdefense, right?
Yeah, 32nd and passing yards allowed per game, 15th.

(57:58):
They're OK at stopping the run, but yeah, so so he got it done
against Atlanta. He had a a ton of rushing yards
against Atlanta, who this seasonthey're batted against defending
that run. What about Tennessee?

(58:25):
Tennessee, I'm just looking at his big games this season.
Tennessee's bad against the run Arizona below average Tennessee
again. Denver Denver pass defense ranks

(58:49):
5th best, rush defense ranks third best.
And he had 165 rushing yards against Denver in Week 2.
So you know that that's just, you know, he can get it done
against anybody, right? Jonathan Taylor over under 87
1/2 rushing yards. He's gone over that line in six

(59:12):
out of 11 games this season. And if you were thinking about
taking that to 80 plus rushing yards, he has still gone over
that in six out of 11 games thisseason.
But once we get to 70 plus, we're looking at 8 out of 11
games, 60 + 9 out of 11 games this season, 50 + 10 out of 11
games this season. Then he's had 45 plus rushing

(59:32):
yards in all 11 games this season.
He has gone over the 87 1/2 rushing line and six out of
eight career games against Houston.
He's had 80 plus rushing yards in seven out of eight career
games against Houston. So good history here.
And then he had 48 yard rushing yards in the game that he didn't
have 80 plus rushing yards. And his eight career games

(59:54):
against Houston, he's had 100 plus rushing yards in five out
of 11 games, or excuse me, 5 outof eight.
Five out of eight career games against Houston and he said he's
had 100 plus rushing yards in infive out of 11 games this
season. We got here's a cool statistic

(01:00:15):
though, and I'm sure you probably already know, But in
case you don't, Jonathan Taylor has scored at least one
touchdown in all eight career games against Houston.
He scored exactly 2 touchdowns in two out of eight career games
against Houston. He has more rushing yards per
carry at home than the road in every season that he's played in

(01:00:39):
except one. And this is his sixth season,
which is a good trend. And then he's had more rushing
yards per attempt in every season except 1, when his team
wins or ties rather than loses. So if you think the Colts are
going to win today, you know, I say that Jonathan Taylor does go

(01:00:59):
over this rushing line. If the Colts win today, if I
mean, typically you would, you know, it looks good.
They look, they look good. I still do got the Colts winning
this game. But I won't be shocked if

(01:01:20):
Houston wins, much like a lot ofother games.
You know, I do want to say Houston's won the last four out
of five games against the Colts.The Colts are better against the
spread this season. But you know, even if the Colts
do not win, I think there's a decent chance Jonathan Taylor
goes over this line. But if you like the Colts to

(01:01:41):
win, I mean, I'll let I'll let you guys make that decision.
You know, if the Colts win, you know, I, I, I say Jonathan
Taylor goes over this line and yeah, that looks pretty solid.
But I do want to talk about, youknow, Jonathan Taylor's
receiving prop a little bit here.

(01:02:03):
Houston hasn't been great or terrible at defending receiving
yards allowed to wide receivers or, excuse me, running backs or
receptions allowed running backssomewhere in the middle of the
pack. And in regards to yards allowed
this season to that receiving yards allowed to running backs
or receptions over under 16 1/2 receiving yards for Jonathan

(01:02:25):
Taylor, He's gone over that in seven out of 11 games this
season. He's had 10 plus receiving yards
in 10 out of 11 games this season.
And but he's only gone over thatreceiving line in one out of
eight career games against Houston, which I don't like.
But if you're thinking about taking Jonathan Taylor to 10
plus receiving yards, that's theway I would have to go.

(01:02:48):
And he's gone, you know, over that in in five out of eight
career games against Houston. And then he's averaged more
yards per catch on grassland turf and every season that he's
played in. And this is his sixth season, so
that's a bad trend considering this game is on turf.
I don't have to lean towards Jonathan Taylor not getting 17

(01:03:10):
plus receiving yards today. And then the reception line, he
has gone over that in seven out of 11 games this season.
The 2 / 2 1/2 receptions, he's had two plus receptions in all
11 games this season. And the only half of his games
against Houston, he's had two plus receptions.
But I think with the the half ofthe games going, getting the two

(01:03:33):
plus receptions against Houston and the fact that he has two
plus receptions in all 11 games this season makes me, you know,
at least feel better about taking Jonathan, Jonathan Taylor
for for two plus receptions morethan, you know, the receiving
yards. Now, if I took it to 10 plus

(01:03:54):
receiving yards, maybe I do feel, I don't know.
I don't know. I think the two plus receptions
is just looking better. But I don't think really either
look great. You know what I mean?
So yeah, I got to lean towards Jonathan Taylor going over
those, those rushing yards today.

(01:04:15):
But it's hard to ignore the factonce again, that he has a
touchdown in all eight career games that he has played
against. Against.
Against Houston, I just went off.
Texans defense is really good. Yeah, for sure.

(01:04:35):
So far, all the road teams won, says Tembo Slice.
He's more comfortable with with JT over 14 receiving yards.
If the run game doesn't work, get JT out and open space.
Yeah, that and they may have to do something like that today
against that, that good Houston defense.

(01:04:56):
So, you know, great point there.Tempo Slice.
Yeah, absolutely, man. Yeah, I don't have to take that
JT down to 10 plus receiving yards, 2 plus reception.
Still leaning towards them getting over the 87 1/2 rushing
yards, though. And then Daniel Jones lasted.
I checked over under 8 1/2 rushing yards.

(01:05:20):
He's gone over that line in fiveout of 11 games this season.
He's had five plus rushing yardsin six out of 11 games this
season. He had 24 rushing yards in his
only career game against Houston.
He did not rush for a touchdown in that game.
And Daniel Jones has had more rushing yards per attempt at

(01:05:41):
home, which he's at home today. He's had more rushing yards per
attempt at home than on the roadin five out of seven career
seasons, which is a decent trendthere.
And then he has more rushing yards per attempt in games that
his team loses rather than wins or ties in five out of seven
career seasons. So I do give Daniel Jones a

(01:06:03):
bigger likelihood of getting 9 plus rushing yards if the Colts
lose based on that trend. And then I'm seeing he's had
more rushing yards per attempt on grass than turf in five out
of seven career seasons, which is not a good trend since this
game is being played on turf. And since I expect the Colts to
win today, I'm going to have to lean towards Daniel Jones not

(01:06:26):
going over that rushing line. Let's talk about his passing
here. You know, Houston just once
again all around good defense, but you know, they've only
allowed the 4th. They've allowed the 4th fewest
passing yards to quarterbacks this season.
And when I checked at the beginning of the week and Daniel
Jones over under 226 1/2 passingyards.

(01:06:48):
He's gone over that line in eight out of 11 games this
season. He's had 200 plus passing yards
in 10 out of 11 games this season.
The game that he didn't, he had 181, but he did not go over that
line, that 226 1/2. In his only career game against
Houston, he had 197 passing yards.
And he has more passing yards per attempt on the road than at

(01:07:11):
home and five career seasons, which is a bad trend since he's
playing at home today. But he has had more passing
yards per attempt when his team wins or ties rather than loses
in all seven career seasons. So if if the Colts win today, I,
you know, I got to lean towards Daniel Jones going over that.
If they lose, I got to lean towards them going under that.

(01:07:35):
I'm going to have to lean towards them going over over
that. And I just want to talk about
Nico Collins real quick. And then maybe some, like
anytime, touchdown statistics. Nico Collins, the reason why I

(01:07:58):
want to mention him, you know, we talked about how the Colts
have a bad pass defense, right? They've allowed the ninth most
receiving yards to wide receivers this season.
They've allowed the third most receptions.
Nico Collins over under 65 1/2 receiving yards.
He's gone over that in half of his games this season, 5 out of

(01:08:19):
10 and then he said 60 plus receiving yards.
So if we if we took that down from 65 1/2 to 60 plus, he has
still gone over that the same amount of times.
That was actually pretty cool what that did in my hand there.
He said 60 plus receiving yards and five out of 10 games this
season as well. But once we get to 50 plus

(01:08:39):
receiving yards for Nico Collins, we're looking at 8 out
of 10 games this season he's gone had 50 plus receiving
yards, which is pretty decent. You know, against a bad pass
defense against a in a game where I'm suspecting, you know,
Houston to to pass the ball, youknow, 50 plus looks pretty solid

(01:09:02):
there, I think. And then he's gone over the 65
1/2 receiving line and three outof six career games against the
Colts. Nico Collins has had at least
117 receiving yards in three career games against the Colts.
He's played the Colts three times and has had at least 117

(01:09:24):
receiving yards in each one of those games.
Or excuse me, let me, let me, let me let me rephrase that
because I said, and sometimes I got to check myself here because
I said he's gone over this line in three out of six career games
against Indianapolis. He's had at least three, OK, at

(01:09:45):
least 117 receiving yards in three career games that he's
gone over the 65 1/2 receiving line against against the Colts.
OK, So in the in his last three-game, three games against
the Colts, Nico Collins has had 117 plus receiving yards.

(01:10:09):
He's had a touchdown in two out of six career games against the
Colts. He's had he's had more receiving
yards per reception at home thanon the road in every season that
he's played in. And this is his fifth season in
the NFL. And that's a bad trend.
But here's a good trend. He has more yards per reception

(01:10:29):
on turf than grass in every season that he's played in.
So a bad trend and a good trend just kind of wipe each other out
there. But he does rank first on
Houston in red zone targets with12, and his next closest
teammate is Schultz with 7. So I want to just go look real

(01:10:50):
quick to see, you know, where Indianapolis is allowing a bulk
of their of their touchdowns. They've allowed ten wide
receiver touchdowns, which isn'tterrible, and then tight end
touchdowns 5. I just need to look real quick.

(01:11:13):
And if I look this up earlier, Schultz has scored it.
So Schultz has never scored a touchdown against the Colts 0
for six. So just based on that alone, you
know, I think I have to go Nico Collins Anytime touchdown for
the my favorite Anytime touchdown scorer today.

(01:11:34):
I like him going over those receiving yards too.
But I want to see if the Colts have been vulnerable to anything
else in regards to touchdowns allowed this season.
They haven't allowed a rushing touchdown to a quarterback.
What about the running bags? They're somewhat vulnerable to

(01:11:56):
that, that running back touchdown not terrible though.
So if you if you like a running back for Houston to to punch it
in today, I could I could see it, but I'm not going to look
into it too hard. So yeah, I'm going to have to go
with Nico Collins anytime touchdown and getting 66 plus

(01:12:18):
receiving yards in this one. And then his reception line.
He's gone over the 5 1/2 receptions in four out of 10
games this season. He said if you're thinking about
taking that hook off and lookingat 5 plus receptions, he still
has gone over that in four out of 10 games this season.
But once we drop Nico Collins down to 4 plus receptions, we're
looking at 7 out of 10 games this season, 3 plus receptions

(01:12:39):
in all 10 games this season. And he's gone over the five and
a half reception line and three out of six career games against
the Colts. In his last three games, though,
he's had 6 plus receptions against Indianapolis.
Still, I'm I'm leaning more towards the receiving yards over
than instead of the receptions. I could see both hitting, but

(01:13:01):
and then that anytime touchdown is going to be my favorite.
OK. Yeah, Timbo, let me let me
answer your question here. Just a second.
Let's see Daniel Jones playing with a slight injury.
Let's go take a look here. A fibula he doesn't carry an

(01:13:24):
injury designation for the contest is what I'm seeing here.
Yeah, you know, I'm reading, I'mreading this here and it kind of

(01:13:45):
and it makes sense. You know, I don't think the
Colts are going to put Daniel Jones in a unfavorable situation
if he truly was injured. You know, he means so much to
the Colts success and this is not a must win game for the
Colts. So, you know, if they had to sit

(01:14:09):
him out, man, I think they would.
So I think that injury designation there is just there
so people don't take Daniel Jones props today isn't it's
looking like another multi touchdown night for Hendis
Henderson. Your thoughts?

(01:14:30):
Yeah, Trayvon Henderson now he plays.
He plays tomorrow night, right? But yeah, I mean, the Giants
ranked 32nd in rushing yards allowed per game.
I'm doing a a specific show on that game tomorrow, a different
episode, but I haven't done any research for that game.

(01:14:52):
Well, I have, but not not a ton with the players, the player
props. But yeah, Henderson, I mean, how
many rushing touchdowns have theGiants allowed to running backs
this season? They've allowed the third most.

(01:15:12):
They've allowed the second most receiving.
I'm not sure if Trayvon Henderson has any receiving
touchdowns this season, but if he does, that's an added benefit
for him scoring A touchdown tomorrow.
I mean, the Giants are bad against the rush.
So, you know, I'll have to look into that a little bit more.
But yeah, I could. I could see him.
I could see him having some a multi touchdown game.

(01:15:39):
Call me crazy, says blessed up P.
But I got a feeling Raiders cover versus Chargers.
So this season I feel every timeRaiders line is 9 1/2 they've
covered it. I think I remember the same line
versus Broncos or Pass or the Bears.

(01:16:00):
Let me let me go see if I have it in my notes here.
Just give me a SEC. What?
What games did you say? Broncos.

(01:16:21):
Patrick Bears. Let's go take a look.
Broncos, Patch, Bears. I know it's supposed.

(01:17:06):
I know it's tells me the line somewhere on what it was.
I don't want to have to look into my word notes to find it.
Usually when I just go to ESPN.com, it tells me.

(01:17:29):
Oh, well, I mean, if I have to. Oh, here we go.
Yeah. Yeah, Ivan, they were.
The Broncos were they opened at 10 1/2.
Looks like closed at 9 1/2 against the Raiders in Week 10.
And the Broncos only won by or Excuse.

(01:17:51):
Yeah, the Broncos only won by three and then against the New
England Patriots. Oh, come on, Where did I find

(01:18:13):
that one? Right on the right on the front
cover here. It's not showing me on that one.
Bears were. The Raiders were actually
favored against the Bears, but when do they play?
New England here Week 1. See if I can find my Week 1
notes just real quick. But yeah, man, you're that's not

(01:18:45):
going to be them. I don't want to look too much
into it, but you're right, at least about the Broncos game.
And go look at that game a little bit here, Week 13.

(01:19:09):
I mean, the Raiders lead the alltime series, right?
The Raiders lead the all time series, 6961 and two against the
Chargers. The Chargers have won the last
four out of five games against the Raiders.
The Los Angeles Chargers are 7 and four against the Las Vegas
Raiders. Keenan Allen needs 2 receptions
to move into 13th place on the all time receptions leaders

(01:19:32):
list. He would pass Steve Smith senior
the the Raiders. Actually, I even have a better
record against the spread. Oh no, the Chargers do right?
I mean, they're close though. The Chargers Raiders are four
and seven against the spread. Chargers are four, six and one.

(01:19:52):
Raiders two and three against the spread as a road dog.
Chargers 2, two and one against the spread as a home favorite.
Vegas has lost their last five games in a row.
Chargers have lost one in a row.I give the Chargers a big
passing advantage, good sized rushing advantage, advantages

(01:20:16):
everywhere really. But I see for the Chargers.
But. We're not necessarily talking
about winning and losing, right?We're talking about covering the
9 1/2. I mean, that's usually when the

(01:20:37):
the best plays are made, right? Whenever you're, I feel like
whenever I'm naturally feeling something is going to happen and
then the statistics back it up. I don't think everything is just
statistics, right? I don't think everything is just
purely based on feel. Now, sometimes you can win just
based off statistics alone. Sometimes you win just based off

(01:21:00):
of feel alone. I think I make my best place
whenever I'm feeling it and it'sstatistically aligns.
It may be you have your reasons,you know why it statistically
aligns. Maybe, maybe you know, since
they are 9 1/2 point favorites, not only are you feeling, you
know, a type of way, but the statistics back it up too, at

(01:21:24):
least against that game against Denver.
It's a it's a divisional game too.
You know, I don't think you're crazy for that.
I mean, I got to go with the Chargers here even even to
cover. But yeah, I mean, I've seen

(01:21:45):
crazier things happen. The Raiders, they rank 18th and
passing yards allowed per game, 13th and rushing yards allowed
per game. So the Raiders relative to other
teams in the league, are more vulnerable against the pass.
The Chargers like to call a highpercentage of passing plays.
They rank 6th and passing play percentage.

(01:22:06):
So also the the Raiders allow the six most 40 plus yard
receptions this season. So I think I think the Chargers
should have no problem passing the ball against the Raiders.
The Raiders have allowed the 10th most receiving yards to
wide receivers and the six most receptions to the wide

(01:22:27):
receivers. Receivers before the week
started. I see that Mcconkey has gone
over his 52 1/2 receiving line in six out of 11 games this
season, 40 plus receiving yards and eight out of 11/30 plus and
9 out of 11. Keenan Allen.
He's gone over his 37 1/2 receiving yard line 8 out of 11

(01:22:49):
games this season, 30 plus and nine out of 11/20 plus and 10
out of 11 games this season. I didn't have time to look up
the, you know, the history that these guys have had against the
Raiders. But what I do know is that
Mcconkey, I mean, I, I can real quick.

(01:23:13):
I do, I, I can because I know that these guys haven't played
each other in the playoffs. I looked to see how many times
they've had a touchdown against the Raiders, Mcconkey and and
Keenan Allen. But you know, I can just look up
Mcconkey versus Raiders statistics.
Usually when I type that in my search engine, it takes me to
statnews.com. But stat news doesn't include

(01:23:36):
playoffs a lot of the time. So I have to like, I have to
look for that playoff, those playoff games that they've
played against teams in a different way.
But you know, Mcconkey, he's only gone over the 52 1/2
receiving line in one out of three career games against the

(01:23:57):
Raiders. He's also scored a touchdown in
one out of three career games against the Raiders.
And then, you know, the reception line is somewhat
interesting here for Mcconkey. He's had exactly.
His overall receptions is 4 1/2.He's a he's had five plus

(01:24:22):
receptions and six out of 11 games this season, which is more
than half and he's had exactly 5receptions and all three career
games against Vegas. So it does sound like that would
be it would be a little sweaty there, but that that looks
pretty good. So if you know, if you're
thinking about Mcconkey recept 5plus receptions today, you got

(01:24:43):
that working with you. But let's go look at Keenan
Allen real quick. I think I wrote on my notes that
he has a touchdown an 8 out of 19 games against against the
Raiders throughout his history. Let me double check that.
Yeah, 8 out of 19 games all timehe's gone over that line.
But I want to see how many timeshe's, you know, had 4038 plus

(01:25:06):
receiving yards. Really how many times he didn't.
He didn't in 123458 or 19 -. 5 is what, 14?
So 14 out of 19 career games Keenan Allen has gone over that
receiving line. We talked about how he needed a
couple of receptions to move into 13th place on the all time

(01:25:26):
receptions leaders list. Also, just you know, keep in
mind if you're interested in this game that that the Raiders
allow the six most 40 plus yard receptions this season.
I don't know who leads the Chargers in 40 plus yard
receptions this season, but whatI do like to do when I have the

(01:25:46):
time to look that information upis go to rotowire.com.
Rotowire.com and click on which game are we looking for Vegas
and Chargers. I'm clicking on each pass
catcher here for the Chargers. So Mcconkey has Mcconkey has 240

(01:26:17):
plus yard receptions this season.
Quentin Johnston has 140 plus yard reception and then Keenan
Allen has zero. So just based on that alone, I
got to give the nod to Mcconkey to be the the player that has

(01:26:42):
that possibly has a bigger, bigger, you know, receiving
gain. I think he has the biggest
likelihood of getting that 40 plus yard reception today.
But let's not let's not sleep onthis Gadsden tight end man,
because I think I've seen him have some big gains this season.
Yeah, he's had 240 plus yard receiving gains this season as

(01:27:05):
well. The Raiders just defend against
that tight end position better or much better.
They ranked 5th best. The Raiders do and receiving
yards, a lot of tight ends. So, you know, I think Mcconkey

(01:27:25):
here with the yards, I like Keenan Allen with the yards, you
know, 37 1/2. But yeah, Mcconkey I think has
the bigger biggest chance to geta 40 plus yard reception.
Allen and lad Mcconkey will havea good game today.
Allen definitely gets that record.

(01:27:46):
Yeah, the two, two receptions. You know, Keenan Allen has had
two plus receptions in 11 out of11 games this season.
Once again, the Raiders have allowed the 6th most receptions
to wide receivers before the week started.
So, so yeah, man, I think there's a real good chance

(01:28:07):
Keenan Allen moves up into 13th place on that all time
receptions leaders list. I thought Keenan Allen was #13
yeah, I was just looking at his jersey number and he's #13 All
right, so he'll move into 13th place on that all time

(01:28:33):
receptions leaders list with tworeceptions #13 All right.
Anything else that I really wanted to cover in this one?
Not a whole lot. I mean, I'm kind of feeling just

(01:28:55):
like balancing in between games and stuff right now.
Let me tell you guys, you know, let's, let's talk about who has
good history, you know, in Chargers.
Beat Raiders 20 to 9 already this season, says Ivan.

(01:29:16):
Yeah, I got to I got to lean towards chargers still, man.
I just I can't with the Raiders,man.
But I just want to go over some interesting, you know, career
histories for you guys in case you were thinking about, you
know, those anytime touchdown scores.

(01:29:38):
Let's let's look at who's got the best history out of the guys
that I have wrote down, you know, and see if that makes any
sense today. McCaffrey Christian McCaffrey
has had a touchdown in all threecareer games that he's played
the Cleveland Browns. He has exactly 2 touchdowns in
one out of three career games against Cleveland.

(01:30:02):
Cleveland has a really good defense.
Is it would be a concern that I have here.
They've only allowed the set. They've allowed the second
fewest rushing touchdowns to running backs this season.
They've allowed two receiving touchdowns to running backs.
So they're not allowing a a ton of a ton of, you know,

(01:30:29):
touchdowns to running backs. But Christa McCaffrey does rank
1st on the San Francisco 49ers and target share, red zone,
target share. I mean, he he's basically their
red zone wide receiver there in San Francisco.
Next man up would be Jawan Jennings, who I thought I maybe

(01:30:54):
had some statistics for him. No.
OK, maybe maybe. I saw that Cleveland was kind of
vulnerable to touchdowns to widereceivers.
I mean, yeah, they've allowed 10.
So those would be probably my first 2 looks.
But do I think McCaffrey scores today?

(01:31:15):
Yeah. Yeah.
Three out of three career games against Cleveland.
What else here? Brian Thomas, junior wide
receiver for Jacksonville, has scored a touchdown in one out of

(01:31:36):
two career games against Tennessee.
Travis Etn has never scored a touchdown against Tennessee in
six career games. Britton Strange, tight end for
Jacksonville, has not scored a touchdown in four career games
against Tennessee. When I'm when I'm picking
anytime touchdowns, I mean you know, I do think that the

(01:31:58):
current current history of the current data means more than the
historical data, but I mean I got to have at least a touchdown
in six games. ETN I mean can he get 1 today?
Absolutely Travis ETN, but just not something that I can you

(01:32:19):
know, Tennessee's allowed the second most rushing touchdowns,
2 running backs this season. 1 would all automatically think
you know, let me let me get on Travis ET in here.
Jacksonville has a big red zone attempts per game advantage and
a big red zone, a decent sized red zone conversion rate

(01:32:42):
advantage. Who do they have as their backup
running backs? I just don't like, once again,
the fact that he doesn't have a touchdown in six career games
against Tennessee Tooten. Maybe 2 would be the way I would

(01:33:04):
go there. Once again, though, Brian Thomas
junior has had a touchdown in one out of two career games
against Tennessee. I don't know Tooten's, I don't
know Tooten's history or if he even has any right, but I just
can't go with ETN today based onthat.
O for six any any given Sunday, though, right?
We already mentioned Jonathan Taylor has the touchdown in

(01:33:26):
eight out of eight career games against Houston.
That's a tough trend to go up against.
I don't care how good Houston's rush defense is, man.
And and Houston really hasn't been terrific at limiting
running back rushing touchdowns this season.
They're middle of the pack. So I got to I got to lean

(01:33:53):
towards JT today. It's funny, I was watching this,
this clip this guy was making the other day and he was like, I
am. So he's like, I used to be one
of those science guys. He's like I used to, you know,
look at he was talking about NBAI was looking at Josh Hart,
you know, for over 8 1/2 rebounds and he's the smallest

(01:34:18):
guy out there and stuff. And he's like from here on out,
I am putting nothing but ball hogs on my slips.
I'm putting nothing. At least I can go to sleep at
night saying, you know what? I I put put myself in the best
position possible. This guy, you know, shows up.

(01:34:38):
He's a big time player and I don't care what defense he's
going up against. That's kind of how I feel about
Jonathan Taylor here today. I don't have that necessarily
same philosophy, you know, for every game and every player.
But and I think some of it was sarcasm.
It was a funny clip, but I thinkthere was some truth to it too.
But yeah, I mean, I'm not, I'm not going against Jonathan

(01:35:02):
Taylor today. Nico Collins already mentioned,
you know, two out of six career games against the Colts, the
Colts have allowed. I've already covered that.
So I'm not going to talk about it again here.
What about for this game? Jalen Waddle has scored a
touchdown in his only career game against the Saints.

(01:35:23):
So if you like Waddle today getting a touchdown, you got
that working for you. The Saints looks like they have
been somewhat vulnerable. They've allowed third that
they're near the bottom of the league and allowing wide
receiver touchdowns. Miami they call a high

(01:35:45):
percentage of passing plays. They ranked 10th and passing
play percentage. I know earlier this year Miami
was real good at at converting touchdowns in the red zone.
I think it was maybe I'm mistaken, but I do give them,
you know, a red zone conversion advantage today, red zone
attempts per game advantage and we look at, you know, the red

(01:36:08):
zone targets for Miami. Waddle ranks first with 10 and
then it's 8 Chan with eight. But if we look at the Saints
receiving touchdowns allowed to running backs this season,
they've only allowed two. So you know, I got to learn more

(01:36:29):
towards towards Waddle. I love Waddles touchdown
celebration. You know what I mean?
The you guys know what I'm talking about.
If you don't, you got it. Got to see it because his name's
Waddle, so he'll start waddling around when he scores a
touchdown. I think that's one of the
coolest touchdown celebrations in the NFL.

(01:36:50):
Allen and Ladd Mcconkey will have a good.
We've already talked about that.Can we talk about that game of
the week, Falcons and Jets? Yeah, let's do it, man.
Let me just go through real quick.
Speaking of, I mean, here we are.
The Falcons and Jets is the gamethat I scroll to.
Something that I, that I want tomention first and foremost is

(01:37:13):
that The Jets before the week started had the best kickoff
returner in regards to average kickoff return yardage.
He also scored a kickoff return touchdown.
So if you're into those special team statistics, if you're
thinking about maybe taking The Jets today or at least to cover
or something like that, I would maybe look to see if Atlanta is

(01:37:36):
vulnerable to kickoff return yards, if they've allowed a lot,
if if they've even allowed a lotof punt return yardage or a punt
return touchdown. Because The Jets do have a punt
return touchdown this season anda kickoff return touchdown this
season. Blessed up.
He says alligator will get a touchdown.

(01:37:59):
Tyler Algier. Now, he did not get a touchdown
in his only career game against against The Jets, but The Jets
have allowed ten rushing touchdowns to running backs this
season. So they've allowed the what,
1234 fifth most? And I want to go see if I have

(01:38:26):
any splits information on Algiermaybe from last week.
OK, so I didn't have anything with his split here at least
last week. So I don't I don't know if he

(01:38:47):
has any favorable splits or not.Might usually with those backup
running backs. What seems to me like you, what
usually happens is if a team is up by 15 plus points or so, they
start using that second string, third string a little bit more.

(01:39:08):
So I would naturally think that he has a better chance of
getting a touchdown if the Falcons, you know, run away with
this game. But I can't tell you how many
times this season I've already I've seen Algiers score the
first touchdown of the game. I feel like he's done it at
least twice in prime time games too.

(01:39:34):
I mean, I like Algier, you know,for some reason now I'm just
kind of looking at the times he's he's scored a touchdown in
games of 15 plus points of margin of victory.
There doesn't seem to be like a huge lop side of, of touchdowns
scored regardless of the margin of victory with Algier.
And and that, that makes sense, you know, now that I'm really

(01:39:57):
thinking about it because. Yeah, once again, I don't, I
can't tell you how many times he's he's had the first
touchdown this season. Does anybody know?
I mean, I would like to know, but I'm not going to take take
you guys this time up to to to do that.
But yeah, game of the week, gameof the week.

(01:40:20):
I don't really, I don't know whoto give the passing advantage to
in this game. Both teams are pretty close in
regards to passing yards per game, passing yards allowed per
game. I do give Atlanta a good sized
rushing advantage, especially with Kamara being out.
Tamara, you know, somebody who I'm I'm looking forward to in

(01:40:44):
this game is is going to be, isn't it?
Isn't it? Hold up.
Oh, that. That's in a different game.

(01:41:08):
Let's see here. Let's just let's talk about some
Robinson props, OK? Bijan Robinson.
The Saints, excuse me, the Saints, they've allowed a lot
more rushing yards per game thanpassing yards per game.

(01:41:31):
Also, Atlanta calls a higher percentage of rushing plays
relative to other teams in the league, just barely.
They rank 18th in that passing play percentage and that was
week 12. No one I was confused there for

(01:41:51):
a second. Sorry guys, I got two different
sets of notes up. I was looking for for splits
here. Sorry the The Jets.
The Jets ranked 23rd and rushingyards allowed per game this
season. And if I start misspeaking,

(01:42:13):
usually I catch it. They ranked the the The Jets
ranked 10th in passing yards allowed per game this season.
So The Jets are more vulnerable relative to other teams in the
league in regards to to rushing yards allowed per game.
That's where they're weaker relative to other teams in the
league. Atlanta ranks 20th now in

(01:42:36):
passing play percentage, So theydo call a higher percentage of
rushing plays relative to leagueaverage.
I do want to mention that The Jets have allowed the ninth most
20 plus yard rushing plays this season and Bijon Robinson has
420 plus yard rushing games thisseason.
Alligator Algier has won. So I think that is an added

(01:43:01):
benefit if you want to take a Robinson or Algier rushing props
today. Robinson, you know The Jets have
allowed the the 12th most rushing yards to running backs
this season. Bijan Robinson over under 79 1/2
rushing yards. He's he's only gone over that
line in four out of 11 games this season.

(01:43:23):
If we take it down to 70 plus rushing yards for Robinson,
we're looking at 7 out of 11 games this season. 60 plus same
thing. 7 out of 11 games this season, even 50 + 7 out of 11.
40 plus rushing yards, 9 out of 11.
He's had 100 plus rushing yards in three out of 11 games this

(01:43:45):
season. His only career game against The
Jets, he had only 58 rushing yards, which is under that 79
1/2 total, and he did not score a touchdown in that game.
And Robinson does have more yards per attempt in rushing
yards per attempt in games that his team wins or ties rather
than loses in every season that he's played in.

(01:44:08):
And this is his third season he's he's had more yards per
carry on grass than turf and twoout of three seasons that he's
played. And not a big sample size.
Really. I shouldn't have even broke that
down on my notes here, but it's a bad trend.
But it's a small sample size, right?

(01:44:31):
I'm concerned about him going over the true line.
I do like the fact that, you know, The Jets have allowed the
ninth most 20 plus yard rushing plays this season and he has
four. But I don't like the fact that
he's only gone over that line infour out of 11 games.
And I don't like how I have. I mean, I'm probably taking him

(01:44:51):
for 70 plus or nothing and I don't think I can even take him
for 70 plus considering he only had 58 rushing yards in his only
career game against The Jets. And I think taking it down to
what 40 plus rushing yards is, you know, you're not going to
get a good payoff on that. So it's not not a player I'm

(01:45:12):
really looking forward to today in the running game.
But Algier, man, let's see. He's gone over his 30 1/2
rushing line and five out of 11 games this season, 20 plus and
six out of 11 games this season,10 plus rushing yards and eight
out of 11 games this season. And I just want to see if he's

(01:45:33):
ever played against The Jets. Alligator, maybe we have some
better history here. 26 rushing yards in his only career game
against The Jets. So yeah, 20 plus rushing yards
for Alligator is the way I wouldbe leaning towards.

(01:45:55):
And then that would be my favorite rushing prop and I'd
have to lean towards, man, I gotto well, I got to lean towards
Alligator over his rushing yardsinstead of Bijon Robinson just
at the normal lines. Alligator did not score a
touchdown in his only career game against The Jets.

(01:46:16):
I think I already mentioned that.
But hey, man, I think Kirk Cousins is somebody that we got
to look at. And I'll get to your to your
guy, your comments there, Ivan. I think Kirk Cousins is somebody
that I got to look at uh, against The Jets.
Now he's had a long history. He's had a long career.

(01:46:36):
So I'm just going to type it in the search engine here.
Hopefully he's never played The Jets in a playoff game.
Kirk cousins versus jets stats. I really want his rushing
statistics. What didn't didn't I say Cousins
could hit a milestone today or was that last week?

(01:47:00):
Kirk Cousins needs 2 passing touchdowns to move into 16th
place on the all time passing touchdowns leaders list.
He would pass Warren Moon. He's had two exactly 2
touchdowns and one out of three career games against The Jets if
he didn't play them in a playoffgame.
So I think that's cutting it close.
But if you like Cousins, you know to get that today, you got

(01:47:24):
that going for you. But I want Kirk Cousins rushing
stats, but I can go look becauseI know what years he's played
20/22 he played against The Jetsand I just want to see how many

(01:47:44):
times he's he's had the the one rushing yard against The Jets.
He had nine in his most recent game against The Jets, if it
wasn't a playoff game, which TheJets never make the playoffs.
No, I'm just, I'm kidding. Kind of what what year did he

(01:48:16):
like 2018? You know, when I was man, when I
was, he had -1 rushing yard in that game.
And then 2015 he had one yard rushing.
So Kirk Cousins has had at leastone yard rushing in two out of

(01:48:36):
three career games against The Jets.
That's my favorite rushing prop today for for Atlanta.
But let's let's talk about let'ssee what I've been saying here.
Alligator will get a touchdown. I'm a ladder up Mason Taylor on
receiving yards possibly to get like yards.
Truly, I think he can get like 70 to 100.

(01:49:02):
He's probably got a better chance of doing that with Tyrod
Taylor in, you know, and and Taylor is that projected
starting quarterback today. Let's go take a look real quick.
You know, Tyrod Taylor in his last few games.
Let's go take a look at these box scores, Ivan.

(01:49:24):
I mean, Atlanta has allowed the 4th fewest receiving yards to
tight ends and the second fewestreceptions.
But you know, what was it? You called Bryce Young going
over his passing yards against Atlanta the other week and he

(01:49:45):
had Atlanta had allowed the fewest passing yards to opposing
teams and he just and he wasn't he doesn't really accumulate a
lot of passing yards, but he he went for like 448, I think it
was. So I don't know what's up with
you in this Atlanta defense, butit seems like you know, you you

(01:50:07):
you're not afraid of it. And Mason Taylor Taylor to
Taylor connection. Mason Taylor led the second
second leader and targets in that game against Carolina.
It looks like Tyrod Taylor came in and filled in for what about

(01:50:27):
at the start? Mason Taylor had five total
targets behind Mitchell and and Mechi in the game against
Baltimore, which was hold on, let me close some of these tabs.

(01:50:48):
I still got still got Nick Chubbstats up.
OK, and we were looking at TyrodTaylor Taylor game log.
I just want to see, you know howmuch he targets Mason Taylor.

(01:51:09):
I just, I don't know about that one man, Mason Taylor, he's gone
over his 28 and half receiving line and five out of 11 games
this season. He's at 20 plus receiving yards
and seven out of 11 games this season.
If I had to take Mason Taylor for anything, it'd be 3
receptions and 20 yards receiving.

(01:51:31):
Man, he really, it seems like hereally likes to target a wide
receivers or wide receivers morethan his tight ends.
And I think in this game that makes more sense, too, because,
you know, Atlanta is more vulnerable to receiving yards
allowed to wide receivers and receptions than they are to the
tight end position. So, you know, I got to learn

(01:51:55):
more towards towards. I kind of like this Metchy guy.
I mean, he does. He does.
He doesn't pop off the charts here, right?
He's had Metchi over under 35 1/2 receiving yards.
I mean, that's just instinctively what I'm feeling

(01:52:16):
here. He's gone over that line and
only two out of seven games thisseason, but really two out of
six since he wasn't targeted in one of those games.
But he's gone over that line in two games in a row.
The two times that Metchi's goneover that line, it's been his
his last two games. I think maybe with a new
quarterback in now with Tyrod Taylor and let's go, let's go

(01:52:38):
look at that game against Baltimore.
How many times did was Mechi targeted 7 right there with
Mitchell 7. But Mechi had six receptions
compared to Mitchell's 2. So that catch rate I like too
with Mechi. Give me give me not a play that

(01:52:58):
I love right. But that's just how I'm which
way I'm leaning towards is Mechiover 35 1/2 receiving yards.
Yeah. Breece Hall receiving yards
might be a good way to go. Receptions is a must.
Yeah. Yep.
Atlanta. I think that's that's that is

(01:53:20):
the way to go. Ivan.
You know, we talked about, well,I don't know if we talked about
it, but I'm looking at it and you know, Atlanta is vulnerable
to that rush. They rank 26th and rushing yards

(01:53:42):
allowed per game, passing yards allowed per game, they rank 8th.
So they're much better against the pass than they are the rush
as a team as a whole. But Breeze Hall has only had 16
rushing yards in his only careergame against Atlanta.
And when we're we're looking at when we're looking at The Jets

(01:54:04):
do like to run the ball too. The Jets do like to run the
ball. So if, if he does have a good
game today, I, I won't be, I won't be surprised on the
ground. Bree Saul.
But when we're looking at BreeceHall receiving props here, OK,

(01:54:26):
Atlanta, let's look at Atlanta'sdefense first.
Atlanta's good. They're best at defending
against that tight end position,perceptions and receiving yards,
and then to the receiving yards and receptions allowed to wide
receivers. That's where they are better at

(01:54:47):
next. And then their biggest
vulnerability is the receiving yards to running backs and
receptions allowed to running backs.
And last week against Baltimore,Breece Hall had 75 receiving
yards. Now he was only targeted 4
times. Mason Taylor had an extra target

(01:55:09):
instead of Breece Hall, but you know Breece Hall over under 22
1/2 receiving yards. In case I didn't mention it,
Atlanta has allowed the 12th most receiving yards to running
backs and the eighth most receptions to running backs.
Breeze Hall has gone over the 221/2 receiving line in six out of
11 games this season. He's had 10 plus receiving yards

(01:55:29):
in eight out of 11 games this season.
Excuse me, Breeze Hall has gone over the 22 1/2 receiving yard
total 6 out of 11 times this season, as I mentioned just a
second ago. But he's also had 30 plus
receiving yards in the same amount of games this season.
And then he had 29 receiving yards in his only career game

(01:55:51):
against Atlanta. So I like the receiving yards
for Breece Hall today over that 22 1/2.
I like the history. Only one game against Atlanta,
right? But it's something it's better
than not going over that in his only career game against Atlanta
and the fact that he's gone overthis line in more than half of

(01:56:13):
his games this season looks, looks solid.
I mean, he's had 30 plus receiving yards in six out of 11
games this season as well. So it gives us a little bit of
wiggle room there, I feel like. And he led the team, he led The
Jets in receiving yards last week.

(01:56:36):
Can he replicate that is the bigquestion.
I'd have to lean towards him doing so Receptions, Ivan, you
were talking about that over under 2 1/2.
Now he's only gone over the reception line and four out of
11 games this season. So he has a higher success rate
with his receiving yard line. But if we take Breece Hall to

(01:56:58):
two plus receptions, we're looking at 9 out of 11 games
this season. And in his only career game
against Atlanta, Breece Hall hadsix.
Once again, he didn't have a touchdown in his only career
game against Atlanta. But you know, 2 plus receptions
for 23 plus yards, even 30 plus yards for Breece Hall, I think

(01:57:22):
looks like the best statistically looks like the
best, the best receiving prop for The Jets today.
I can see it happening too. You know, I, I mentioned Metchi.
I kind of like Metchi big match.But yeah, I think, you know,

(01:57:48):
statistically that Bruce Hall stuff looks the best in the
receiving game. Kyle Pitts, you know, The Jets
are good at defending against the tight end position.
Kyle Pitts, he's only gone over his line, 45 1/2 receiving yards
and four out of 11 games this season.

(01:58:09):
And he's gone under that 45 1/2 receiving line and four straight
games. Even if you take Kyle Pitts to
40 plus receiving yards, you're still looking at 4 out of 11
times that he's gone over this season.
And he's scored a touchdown and one out of two career games
against The Jets. I have and he's gone over.

(01:58:29):
But he has gone over the 45 1/2 receiving line in both career
games against The Jets. So I'm a little torn about Kyle
Pitts today. I probably have to lean towards
him not not getting there. You might be right.
Better. So I didn't look at Metchy.

(01:58:51):
I love it because Taylor's been in them two games met.
She went over, yeah. Uh, Mason or Meshy.

(01:59:12):
I mean, Tyrod Taylor seems like he's been favoring a wide
receiver in the games that he's played.
Now, some of these games Justin Fields played, right?
Let's see, against Tampa Bay, hetargeted Garrett Wilson 13

(01:59:35):
times. OK, So Garrett Wilson's out,
obviously, right? But then Breece Hall and Mason
Taylor were targeted the same. So I feel like, you know, not
just because of that one game, but because of that game against
Baltimore. I think every other game just
that Tyrod Taylor's played this season, Justin Fields has played

(01:59:55):
except these two. So I think we only have two
games to look at here for Tyrod Taylor.
And he targeted a wide receiver the most in both of those games.

(02:00:18):
Garrett Wilson once again, 13 total targets.
And then it was Breece Hall and Mason Taylor was 6 in that game
against Tampa Bay and then just last last week against
Baltimore. He goes right back to the wide
receivers. Mechi caught 66 catches for on 7
targets. Mason Taylor 3 receptions, 5

(02:00:42):
targets. Also, Baltimore has allowed more
receiving yards to wide receivers than the tight end
position relative to other teamsin the league.

(02:01:02):
Same case today with Atlanta. Atlanta allows more receiving
yards to wide receivers than tight ends relative to other
teams in the league. So I mean I got I got to lean
towards Metchi in this one. Man Fields don't throw the ball

(02:01:26):
dude would have 50 total. 50 total yards.
Yeah, man, anything else here for this game?

(02:01:50):
I mean, what an ugly game, dude.But give me, I mean, you know,
believe it or not, The Jets are actually better against the
spread this season than the Falcons, and the Falcons are
actually zero and two against the spread this season as a road
favorite. Atlanta slight passing advantage

(02:02:19):
New York Jets slight rushing advantage I have here on my
notes. So Jet slight third down
conversion advantage and the advantages that Atlanta has, you
know, in the red zone are slight.
And I feel like some of these numbers are skewed considering
meaning that they're just inaccurate, a little inaccurate

(02:02:40):
because Tyrod Taylor is in this game.
You know, Justin Fields is responsible for a lot of these
offensive numbers. I feel like, I'm not saying that
Tyrod Taylor is not, but I just feel like maybe it's more so
Justin Fields, and I don't thinkit landed.

(02:03:02):
Atlanta's advantages are too significant unless we're talking
about sacks on the quarterback advantage.
You know, hopefully Tyrod Taylor's not getting sacked a
whole lot. 3 sacks against Baltimore.
He's got sacked 3 times against Baltimore, three times against

(02:03:24):
Carolina. The reason why I say so is
because Atlanta's been getting after opposing quarterbacks
really well and The Jets just haven't been protecting their
quarterback at all. So hopefully, you know, Tyrod
Taylor can bring in some of thatveteran savvy and not get, you
know, get the ball out quick if he needs to, you know, which

(02:03:51):
makes me come probably like thatBruce Hall prop a little bit
more. But if he has some time, give me
a big match. But see, yeah, I mean, I don't
think The Jets are but, but I mean, can I go with The Jets to

(02:04:14):
cover? Look, if you like The Jets to
cover, I'm with you. I'm with you and I'm rooting for
you, all right? But I mean, I just, I just
couldn't do that. You know, I Jets are just one of
those teams where I can't touch them.
Forecast at 1:00 PM in New York City is rain.

(02:04:36):
Now I'm overthinking with winds at 13 mph.
Yeah. Let's do a little, let's do a
little weather update and maybe a player injury update here.
See if we got anything. Excuse me.
Yeah, Ivan, what I'm seeing hereon rotogrinders.com/weather

(02:04:59):
slash NFL is that there's a steady light rain early in this
Jets game and likely in the kickoff.
That rain should clear for a bitand then another round is likely
later in that game. It says that it's wet at the
game, but not a true downpour and it's likely not an all game

(02:05:19):
thing. Winds stay fairly light, 10 mph
Max. They don't, they're not thinking
that it's a it's a huge issue inthis one.

(02:05:40):
But you know, man, I think, I think obviously Michael Pinnix
Junior has better potential thanKirk Cousins, but I almost feel
like Atlanta could be a better team with Kirk Cousins just
because of that veteran leadership for the for the time

(02:06:01):
being. And I just, I can't go with The
Jets. But once again, man, if you're
going for The Jets today, I mean, I'm, I'm rooting for you.
I kind of like The Jets, you know, Tyrod, Taylor, Breeze

(02:06:24):
Hall, Mitch. I just can't today.
But once again, guys, I think that the special teams could be
huge in this one considering theThe Jets have the best kickoff
returner in regards to average kickoff return yards this

(02:06:45):
season. He also has a kickoff return for
a touchdown and you know, they also have the 9th ranked punt
return yarder average guy IsaiahWilliams this season and he has
also scored a punt return for a touchdown.
So, you know, if if you really do like The Jets to cover today,

(02:07:09):
I would look to see if Atlanta is vulnerable to allowing, you
know, kick off yards or punt return yards.
Sometimes I have difficulties finding that information.
Let me see if I just have it just readily available.
Real quick, special teams punt returns, I'm at NFL.com.

(02:07:32):
They don't make this. You know, I appreciate what you
guys are trying to do here, NFL.com, iusenfl.com, for a lot
of statistics, but it's just not, it's just not easily

(02:07:57):
readable. I cannot interpret this very
well. The whole entire live punt

(02:08:21):
return yards allowed It will probably take me to stat news or
something. Team kickoff return yards
allowed this season. Who am I looking for?
Atlanta Doesn't look like Atlanta's been terrible at
allowing kickoff return yards. Kickoff return, yard average.

(02:08:44):
This is I don't know, it's just it's tough for me to find that
information. If you can find it, I think it's
valuable information. All right.
But right now, yeah, give me, give me Atlanta.
Can't go with The Jets. But, you know, without Justin
Fields, I think The Jets do havea better chance.
Tyrod Taylor, We got to talk about 49ers and Browns.

(02:09:08):
People all over the Browns to cover because of the bad
weather, says Blessed up P Plus,Browns are better at home.
I got that feeling, man. What do you think about it?
Blessed up P, What do you guys think about it and chat?
I got this weird feeling. Browns give the Niners a small

(02:09:29):
run for their money today. There's a couple reasons why I
say that. One is because Cleveland leads
the all time series 13 to 8 against San Francisco.
The home team, which is Cleveland like you were talking
about, the home team has won thefast the past five meetings

(02:09:51):
between these two teams, Cleveland has beaten San
Francisco 4 times in a row when Cleveland was the home team.
Cleveland is 8 and two on the money line against San Francisco
all time when Cleveland is the home team.

(02:10:14):
Cleveland's also three and O against the spread as a home
underdog this season, but San Francisco is 4 and O as the road
favorite overall. I give San Francisco a big
passing advantage, although, youknow, maybe Chador Sanders gets

(02:10:36):
a little bit more comfortable now.
But yeah, still overall San Francisco big passing advantage,
slight rushing advantage, big third down conversion advantage.
They got the red zone conversionadvantages.
There's two advantages I see here for Cleveland though, a big
sacks on the quarterback advantage and a big turnover

(02:11:00):
differential advantage. I want to look at something I
want to look to see last week. I know this could be a little
bit boring for some here, but I'm going to look at it anyways.
I just want to look to see if there's any correlation with the

(02:11:24):
winners from last week, if they had a big Sachs advantage and a
big or, or let's just say a Sachs advantage and a turnover
differential advantage in my notes here.
You know, I just, I just wanted to see what happened last week.

(02:11:48):
I'd see I had my notes. New England had a big, big
advantages in both of those categories, and New England won
by 6 points. Shouldn't take me too long to
figure this out. Detroit had an advantage there.
They won by 7 against the giant the Giants in overtime.

(02:12:11):
So looking for both of those
statistics. Cleveland big Sachs advantage
and big turnover differential advantage last week against the
Raiders. Cleveland 124 to 10.

(02:12:40):
Makes me wonder though, is Cleveland always looking like
this? They ranked second.
No they don't, although they're good at getting sacks.
They ranked 2nd and team sacks per game.
Their turnover differential is +2.
So I'm just seeing if there's any correlation here with the

(02:13:03):
winners and losers based on this.
Atlanta last week I had on my notes they had a big sacks and a
big turnover differential advantage.
They won 24 to 10. I'd say the Rams technically had

(02:13:23):
it last week. They won 34 to 7 against Tampa.
So every time last week that I had in my notes, which was what
about four games that a team hadthe sax advantage and turnover
differential advantage, that team won every time.

(02:13:44):
And that's what we see today here with Cleveland, big Sachs
advantage, big turnover differential advantage.
And we're about to see, you know, with this game, how much
it how meaningful it really is, you know, because Cleveland has
no other advantage in the other categories that I look at.

(02:14:17):
Where do I feel like Cleveland'sgot a got a you know, you know,
you talked about weather Ivan seeing you know, some some heavy
sustained winds, 25 mph gusts around 35 mph.

(02:14:43):
So I think, you know, obviously for the deeper throws and kicks
that could be harmful. Who does that hurt more?
Probably San Francisco, you would think.
So maybe they they, they look for McCaffrey a little bit more

(02:15:03):
today. And though, you know, just dump
it off to McCaffrey, you know, keep it, keep it out of the air.
San Francisco McCaffrey over under 39 1/2 receiving yards.
He's gone over that line in 12 out of 12 games this season.
Is it really 39 1/2? I mean, it's rare that I see

(02:15:23):
something like this, you know, where they have the line set at
something a player has gone overin every game this season. 39
1/2 is what I'm seeing here on DK, and I'm pretty sure
McCaffrey has gone over that. I think I remember last week I
said 40 plus. He's gone over in every game

(02:15:45):
this year. Yeah, he's gone over that net.
He's had 40 plus receiving yardsin every game this year.
Statistically, I don't see anything better today than this
in regards to that success rate.You know, Cleveland ranks 12th
before the week started, 12th best in receiving yards allowed
to running backs. But I'm sure McCaffrey has

(02:16:10):
played up against some tough, you know, receiving yards
allowed to running backs defenses this year.
I mean, let's see Minnesota, Tennessee, Buffalo, MN,
Tennessee, Buffalo, MN, Tennessee or Buffalo.
I don't think he's played against any of those.
What about Jets, Saints, Lions, just Saints?

(02:16:34):
He had 52 receiving yards, so Pitt, Denver Chargers.
Anyways, yeah, so that looks good.
He's actually had 50 plus receiving yards and 10 out of 12

(02:16:58):
games this season, 60 plus receiving yards and eight out of
12 games this season. 70 plus iswhere we start getting into more
times than not he has. He's had 70 plus receiving yards
in five out of 12 games this season.
He's had more yards per catch athome than on the road in seven
out of nine career seasons, which is not a good trend since

(02:17:19):
he's on the road today, but he scored a touchdown in three out
of three career games against Cleveland.
I've already mentioned that leads this team in red zone
targets and 4th in the NFL in red zone targets.
Receptions for McCaffrey. You know he's gone over the four
and a half reception line and eight are, excuse me, 11 out of
12 games this season. He's had three plus receptions

(02:17:42):
in all 12 games. 6 plus receptions in nine out of 12
games this season. 7 out of seven plus receptions in seven
out of 12 games this season. I didn't mention how many times
McCaffrey has gone over these lines.

(02:18:02):
Against the Browns in his three-game history he had a 3824
and 9 receiving yards, so he's never gone over that.
Against Cleveland. The receiving yard line
receptions he did once he had 6/1 time.

(02:18:26):
So I think this is a great, you know, I want to put this on my
notes here. You know, let's let's stay,
let's watch out for this game. I think this is this is all all
of a sudden turned in the most interesting game of the day for
me, Ivan. There's a couple things that I
want to see. You know, how how meaningful is

(02:18:47):
this correlation between teams winning and having a big sax on
the quarterback advantage and a big turnover differential
advantage? Also with McCaffrey, what means
more the current 12 out of 12 games this season going over
these receiving yards and the receptions 4 1/2 Eleven out of

(02:19:09):
12 games this season or the factthat he's never gone over those
receiving yards in any career game against Cleveland.
It's going to be fun to watch and see what happens.
You know, maybe we should do that more.

(02:19:31):
Maybe I think that's something that I could do more of, right
is go recap, recap, see what went right and went went wrong
and do recap shows. It just takes me so much time to
prepare for these shows. I just don't know.
I mean, maybe down the road is something, you know, something
that I can fit in here. Just want to take the time real

(02:19:59):
quick to say thank you to our sponsors.
Bet US mybookie.agwalmart.com, Open goal, MLB and NFL Pro shops
and W energy drinks. But you know, I think there was
a game on Thanksgiving, right, where there was something that
really stuck out to me. I can't remember exactly what I

(02:20:22):
think it was receiving ours tight ends, right?
It was Gaseki and I just want tosee what happens.
I think both of these guys went under and then we'll get on,
we'll get on to the other games and stuff.
But I think it's just as important to see what happened

(02:20:42):
then and what happened with thisinformation just as much as the
information itself, right? So Gaseki, he had gone over the
36 1/2 receiving yard total in zero out of six games this

(02:21:05):
season on Thanksgiving, and he had 19 receiving yards.
So that stayed true. And then 3 1/2 receptions line,
he's only, he had only gone overthat in one out of six games
this season and he only had two receptions.
So that stayed true. But no offense guys, on
Thanksgiving, his over under was11 1/2 on receiving yards and he

(02:21:31):
had he had three receptions. He had gone over the 1 1/2
reception line and eight out of nine games this season, he only
had one. So we'll see what happens today.
And then that way we know, you know, I'll have to go through

(02:21:53):
these games and look to see how many other times throughout the
year this has happened, right? But, you know, it's fishy.
It's fishy to me when I see something that because you don't
I don't see that a lot right where somebody has gone over and

(02:22:14):
1212 out of 12 games like McCaffrey has gone over his
receiving line today 12 out of 12 games this season.
It's not often that I see that so it's it smells fishy and with
this game on Thanksgiving in regards to Noah fan receiving
yards and receptions, it not only was it fishy, but it didn't

(02:22:34):
happen. So we'll keep an eye out and see
what happens today with McCaffrey.
You know? Yeah, I appreciate you guys for

(02:22:56):
joining today. Let's keep rocking on here now
with alternate lines. I think that's probably a
different case, right? Alternate lines, I mean, that's
one thing, But when the line is set at 39 1/2 with McCaffrey and

(02:23:18):
he's gone over that every game this season, you don't see that
with every. You don't see that with a lot of
props. I mean, I'm just browsing
through it. Judy's gone over his current
receiving line in six out of 11 games this season.
Kittle 3 out of seven. I mean, all of these guys today,
McCaffrey rushing yards, 5 out of 12.
Why is it, you know, and I usually don't like to say why is

(02:23:42):
it? Why is this line set like that?
I try not to look at what the the books are necessarily set in
their lines to a whole lot because whether it's if it's
true or not, I like to think that I'm at least I like to
think even though I know I'm youknow, I'm only one guy.

(02:24:05):
I think having that confidence that you're that you're better
than the books is important. But so I so whenever I'm looking
at these lines, you know, you'readmitting that the books are no
more than you. And yeah, you're probably right.
You're probably true, but I mean, realistically, yeah,

(02:24:31):
you're you're right. But feel like we need that
confidence that we're better than the books, man.
All right, so let's see here. You know, Kittle, he's gone over
his 48 1/2 receiving line and three out of seven games this
season. He's gone over that in three
straight games. He's had 40 plus receiving yards

(02:24:53):
and four out of seven games thisseason, 30 plus receiving yards
and five out of 725 plus win 6 out of seven.
He's gone over the 48 1/2 receiving line in one out of two
career games against Cleveland. He's had a touchdown in one out
of two career games against Cleveland.
He's had more yards per catch athome than on the road in seven
out of nine career seasons, which is a bad trend for Kittle

(02:25:13):
today. And he has more yards per catch
when his team wins or ties rather than loses in seven out
of nine career seasons. So if you like San Francisco to
win today, I think there's a better chance for Kittle to go
over his receiving yards. But sounds like, hey, thanks,
blessed up. He you know, he that's if you

(02:25:35):
think that San Francisco is going to win, seems like there's
some uncertainty uncertainty outthere about that.
So I don't know about this Kittle, this Kittle yard pick
up, but what about tight end touchdowns allowed by Cleveland?

(02:25:59):
They've allowed five this year, which is middle of the pack.
I think that may be the best chance that San Francisco has
to, you know, get into the end zone here.
Now wide receivers, Cleveland's have been somewhat vulnerable
to, but running back position Cleveland has defended against

(02:26:20):
that running back position really good in regards to
touchdowns allowed. So although McCaffrey has good
touchdown history and I think hecan get it done against anybody,
you know, he's got his hands full today.
I'm just, I'm just a little unsure about San Francisco

(02:26:42):
touchdown scores, to be quite honest with you.
But I think, you know, McCaffreyobviously has to be in the
conversation. Kittle and Jawan Jennings, I
mean, they're pretty much in the, in the conversation every
week. But this week, man, I'm thinking
maybe, uh, Kittle gets a touchdown but doesn't get his

(02:27:05):
yardage. Kind of like Kelsey on
Thanksgiving. But yeah, McCaffrey does have a
touchdown in three out of three crude games against Cleveland.

(02:27:26):
I know I mentioned that 100 times, but yeah, give me, I'm
not gonna. I can't go against.
I can't go against you on this one, Ivan.
The vibes have been too good. Let's get the Browns here, man.
Plus, let's take him up to 6 1/2instead of 5 1/2.

(02:27:47):
Let's take him up to 6 1/2. I'm really just interested to
see what happens in this game. You know, let's see what other
game do we have here? I know some other guys on the
not move podcast. You're going to want to probably
get on the airwaves here pretty soon.

(02:28:07):
But yeah, Ivan are blessed up P.This has just been a little bit
more of a chilling show, just just hanging out a little bit
more today and and talking with you guys instead of breaking
down the analytics because it was Thanksgiving week.
I mean, I do have a lot of analytics here.

(02:28:29):
What about Tua? You know, Ivan, we talk about
Tua rushing yard all the time. I was actually looking into that
last night. You know, I see that New Orleans
ranks 11th best in rushing yardsallowed to quarterbacks.
But look, Tua's line is over under 0.5.
He's gone over that in seven outof 11 games this season.

(02:28:51):
I know, I know. He's gone under that in four
straight games, but he had one rushing yard in his only career
game against New Orleans. He did not get a rushing
touchdown with that with that rushing yard, in case you were
wondering. But you know, historically and

(02:29:12):
with this season's data, man to for a rushing yard, I like it.
I wouldn't say like, right, but I gotta lean towards.
I know, man. Where's JB?
I don't know, man. I'll let him know.
Hey, JB, I'm gonna let him know right now.

(02:29:35):
If you're watching this live, people are looking for you.
Yeah. No, he says on the way.
Cool. Yeah.
I love. I love having you guys in the
chat letting us know your guys'sthoughts.
And like I said, man, I'm not here necessarily telling you

(02:29:59):
guys what to do. I'm just hanging out with you
guys and giving you some statistics.
And I, I really do value everybody's, everybody's outlook
and opinions on things. So I think everybody from at
least time to time can come up with a piece of information
that's just like, whoa, I didn'tthink about that.

(02:30:20):
You know, I think Shador Sandershas an OK game today says
blessed up he that he played in College in Colorado.
It's cold, windy and snowy and he should be used to it compared
to Purdy point, case in point right there, man.
I didn't even think about that. 100 percent, 100%, man.

(02:30:43):
And the fact that Purdy came back from an injury, the cold
weather may affect his game. Don't be surprised if he if he
leaves the game hot. I love the hot take, man.

(02:31:03):
I got a buddy that does a bunch of hot takes and yeah, dude,
this is great. Dude.
That'd be that'd be. I don't wish injury on anybody.
OK, I don't wish injury on anybody.
But if you call this, you know, be pretty, pretty crazy.

(02:31:25):
I'm going to look into Tua and Trevor Lawrence and CJ for
rushing. I mean, I think the two rushing
yard is going to be a sweat man,but look to how many times you
know, man, can you pick up a rushing yard?
I guess he he picked up in his first seven games this season,
picked up a rushing yard in every game and now four games in

(02:31:45):
a row. Not what is going on to Oh no,
I'm mistaken. Why did I have that in my notes
here? So he's gone under he he's
actually only gone under the onerushing yard or 0.5 rushing
yards in the last two games. He actually picked one up
against Baltimore. So I'm mistaken on that.

(02:32:08):
But to begin the season he was two and three three and four,
four and five five and six, six and seven to picking up that one
rushing yard. Can't believe, I just, I can't
believe I just took up 5 minutesof this of your guys's time to
talk about two over or under 1 rushing yard.

(02:32:29):
You know who I'm actually excited to see in this game is
Devin Neil running back for New Orleans.
With Camara being out, I got a lot of friends that are Kansas
and Jayhawks football fans and Iknow Devin Neil used to play for
Kansas, so it'd be fun to see what he does today.

(02:32:54):
Miami does have a bad rush defense.
You know, they they've allowed the 4th most rushing yards to
running backs. They ranked 29th and rushing
yards allowed per game. So they're, you know, bad
against the run. I do want to mention though,
that the Saints have allowed theninth most 20 plus yard rushing

(02:33:17):
gains this season and HN has 920plus yard rushing gains.
A Chan has gone over his 80 1/2 rushing line in five out of 11
games this season. And even if you took that to 70
plus for a Chan, you're still looking at 5 out of 11.
But once we get to 60 plus rushing yards for a Chan, we

(02:33:39):
start seeing 8 out of 1150 plus rushing yards, 9 out of 11.
He's never played against the Saints, but I think a Chan you
know is in a good spot today, atleast for the the yardage.

(02:34:02):
Just because of his history thisseason, though, I would feel
more comfortable taking it to 60plus to at least getting that 8
out of 11 success rate instead of five out of 11 for his normal
rushing line. And then what about running back
touchdowns allowed by New Orleans, rushing touchdowns

(02:34:24):
about middle of the pack, receiving touchdowns allowed by
New Orleans to running backs because he is, you know, a good
pass catching running back they've allowed to middle of the
pack. So yeah, we'll be surprised to
see a Chan see the end zone today and have a pretty decent
game here in this one. You know, Miami does have a

(02:34:51):
better red zone attempts per game advantage and red zone
conversion rate advantage than New Orleans.
So I do expect, you know, Miami to get in the red zone a little
bit more than New Orleans. Today I got I got to go with,
with Miami covering in this 1 -,5 1/2.

(02:35:13):
They're better against the spread not just throughout the
season, but in the situation as well.
They're one and one against the spread as a home favorite
compared to New Orleans who's two and three against the spread
as a Rd. underdog. I do want to mention that New
Orleans is much weaker against the run than they are the past

(02:35:38):
relative to yardage allowed compared to other teams in the
league. But the thing about New Orleans
is although they ranked 9th in passing yards allowed per games,
which is good. You know, they've allowed the
eighth most 40 plus yard receptions this season.
And Waddle, I've already talked about him a little bit earlier

(02:35:59):
in in the show, but Waddle has 340 plus yard receptions this
season, whereas nobody else, youknow, a Chan Malik, Washington
kind and Darren Waller have all not had a 40 plus yard
reception. So I think that adds to Waddles

(02:36:22):
value here. If you like to Waddle for
receiving yards once again, he'shad 92 receiving yards off 10
receptions in his only career game against the Saints, and he
did score a touchdown in that game.
The Saints have specifically been pretty good against that
wide receiver position in regards to limiting yardage this

(02:36:42):
season. But Waddle has hit his over the
70 and a half, the 70 1/2 receiving line and five out of
11 games this season, 60 plus and six out of 11 games this
season. I think that 60 plus sounds
pretty good. 50 plus you're looking at 7 out of 11 times

(02:37:02):
this season, 40 + 8 out of 11, 30 + 10 out of 11.
But yeah, I like I like the factthat, you know, he's had 92
receiving yards in his only career game against the Saints.

(02:37:25):
Let's see, I have a great trend for that Saints Dolphin game.
Saints are one in 10 against thespread in the first quarter.
Wow. Yo, what's up JB?
You know man. JB, you want to you want to take

(02:37:50):
it over for a second while I take a station identification
break? Sure.
Yeah, all. Right.
Thanks man. I'll be right back man.
Give me 5 minutes tops. Maybe we can go over.
Shoot, the floor is yours. I'll be back within 5 minutes.
OK all. Right.
All right. Thanks, man.

(02:38:12):
So let's see let me mute this subway.
We ain't got no echo all right, umm really even know what's up
Bless the P bando, everybody, everybody in the club get umm
man NFL Sunday. I'm ready, uh, blessed up.

(02:38:37):
What's up, my guy? I've seen Avi was out there too
for a little bit, man. Browns I like, dude.
What's that man? I like the Browns.
I like the Browns today. I wasn't really ready for this

(02:38:59):
to be honest with you guys. Pick 2.
Alan Johnson, Gangwell, Wilson, Pierce, Go Gainwell man.

(02:39:20):
Gainwell and Johnson, maybe? The.
Other is catching some straight games since Wow, so Southgate
wow, I didn't know that yeah, I got Cleveland over San Fran.

(02:39:43):
You got you're talking about theNew Orleans game.
I I like New Orleans in this game.
To be honest with you. I don't really don't why I just
do. I just can't feelings.

(02:40:03):
That is really amazing though, what you said about them.
Oh, shoot my balls about that. Believed in, Yes, I got believed
in the Saints. I'm going to go with the Saints
as well as as my pick versus theDolphins.

(02:40:25):
I don't know. It's that time of the year, end
of the year. Saints probably muster up
another win or two by the time everything's said and done.
Yeah, I know it's kind of off topic, but what do you guys

(02:40:51):
think of Tyree Kill going home, Come back to Kansas City?
I love it, you guys. We are the Not Move podcast.
Thank you guys for tuning in. You guys are on Facebook,
Twitter, playback, YouTube, Twitch, kick bro.

(02:41:17):
It's like there ain't no place that we ain't.
We got that NFL jersey raffle you guys.
It's $10 a slot. Get you up in there.

(02:41:40):
Doesn't Casey have enough 5 receivers around?
Jeez, Casey says players, they don't have playmakers right?
They don't have weapons right? But yeah, we have the not moved
dash shop.fourthwall.com going there.
We got plenty of merch, merch onmerch on merch holiday seasons.

(02:42:03):
It's cold out. Get your merch, stay warm, get
your snooky, get your wooly. You know, it's about that time.
I know over here it's already start snowing Kansas City.
You guys get warm. Wow.

(02:42:38):
That's crazy, Jimmy. You think the Raiders cover nine
and a half ten point spread? Who do the Raiders even play
today? Chargers.
No, no, not at all. You're not covering the spread

(02:43:01):
at all. And I I don't personally think.
Yeah, there's a couple of teams that I just can't touch, man.
The Raiders are one of them, andI think The Jets are probably
another one. What game have we not covered a

(02:43:31):
lot of? Let me just look real quick.
You know Darnold. Darnold facing his former team
today, Minnesota at Seattle. Seattle leads the all time

(02:43:53):
series 13 to 7 against Minnesota.
Minnesota's won two games in a row against Seattle.
Darnold technically has a zero and two career record against
the Vikings. That's kind of crazy.
Yeah, because he played with another team before the Vikings.

(02:44:20):
You think there's any way you know Minnesota?
I mean, I don't think anybody's expecting Minnesota to win today
with that backup quarterback they got in there.
I don't know much about him. Nobody really does.
Max Brosmer. But man, JJ McCarthy, I lost my
my survivor pig to Minnesota in Minnesota like a couple weeks

(02:44:44):
ago. Minnesota was terrible with
McCarthy. At least McCarthy was just
missing guys left and right. So I don't think it can get much
worse with this backup in here. Like, yeah, you're probably
right on that. I just want to know like if he's

(02:45:04):
that bad looking like in a game action.
I mean that he looked that bad in practice.
It's just tough to go with Minnesota Viking props in this
one, like receiving props because of the unknown variable
with that quarterback. But you know, these guys do have

(02:45:27):
some good touchdown history. You know, Aaron Jones, two out
of four career games against Seattle, he's had two plus
touchdowns. He are exactly 2 touchdowns.
Justin Jefferson has had one plus touchdown in two out of
three career games against Seattle, he's had two touchdowns

(02:45:47):
and one out of three career games against them.
Addison has a touchdown and one out of one career game against
Seattle. Hawkinson has exactly 2
touchdowns and one out of two career games against Seattle.
So I think, you know, if he can put the ball in their hands,
man, they could have some solid games.

(02:46:14):
I mean, I do expect Seattle to win this one.
I really, I really expect Seattle to cover to, you know, I
got to put Minnesota up there onthat list of teams I can't
touch. I think it's more so because of
McCarthy, but we'll see about Bros.
Yeah, it's tough even taking player props on the Vikings side

(02:46:38):
today. Yeah, I'm interested to see what
happens. You know, is this a game where
everybody stays away from Vikings props and and just
everybody just has a great game.Otis, lots of rushing yards and
Niners Browns games, snow possible at 20 mile per hour

(02:46:59):
wins 70 plus rush for Judkins and McCaffrey with 100 combined.
I was leaning more towards McCaffrey receiving yards, You
know, even in that bad weather, I think they'll just on those
passing plays continue to dump the ball to McCaffrey.

(02:47:25):
But here's the thing about McCaffrey, right?
He's his, his receiving line is at 39 1/2, which he's gone over
that in every single game this season.
And something just smells fishy about that.
You know, there was a game on Thanksgiving, and I talked about
this just a few minutes ago. Otis, there's a game on

(02:47:46):
Thanksgiving. No offense.
I think it was. Yeah, I'm reading my notes here.
He had gone over the 11 1/2 receiving line in eight out of
nine games this season, and he did not go over that line on
Thanksgiving. And I feel like this is a
similar situation. I'm really interested to see if
McCaffrey goes over this line. Statistically, it looks great,

(02:48:07):
but something smells fishy. I'm excited to see like, you
know, Shadour Sanders. Ivan mentioned that.
I know you're a San Francisco fan, Otis, but Ivan was
mentioning, you know, Shadour Sanders used to play college
ball at Colorado. He's used to this cold weather

(02:48:30):
probably a little bit more than than Purdy is a lot of people
think. I think Cleveland take this game
today. What do you think Otis had to
lean towards Cleveland covering the plus 6 1/2?
I think they're 5 1/2 point dogs.
We'll take it up to 6 1/2. Oh, Buffalo at Pittsburgh.

(02:49:00):
I mean, this is a huge game. Buffalo at Pittsburgh.
I mean, Buffalo seven and four record.
Pittsburgh six and five. Pittsburgh does lead the all
time series 17 to 13 against Buffalo.
Buffalo's won the last four out of five meetings.
Josh Allen does have a four in one career record against
Pittsburgh, whereas Rogers is 3 and four against the Bills.

(02:49:30):
We lost to them by miss field goal last time.
I think we win by that field goal this time, says Otis.
And then I just I noticed that the Browns have won.
We'll go back to that Buffalo Pittsburgh game.
I'm interested on your take on that one, JB, since it's the
AFC, but Cleveland has won 8 outof 10 all time games against San

(02:49:59):
Francisco when Cleveland's the home team.
Cleveland has also beaten San Francisco 4 times in a row and
Cleveland was the home team and the home team has won the past
five meetings between these teams.
It's actually surprising that Cleveland has a 13 and eight all
time career history record against San Francisco.

(02:50:23):
What are you thinking about thisBuffalo and Pittsburgh game?
JBI do have some props I want togo over in this one, but I want
to know your thoughts real quick.
Who do you see coming away with this one?
Pittsburgh and Buffalo? I in.
Going. To man, Rodgers, I believe, has

(02:50:48):
a you know, he broke his, his, his, his feelings, broke his
wrist. I think he's in a cast.
I don't I, you know, I just don't.
I just don't see them doing it, man.
You get gotta give me gotta giveme Buffalo.
I know both of these teams are kind of wishy washy, both of
them kind of up in the air, can't really decipher and choose

(02:51:12):
like which one's going to win, right?
Like which one like it. That's the hard part with these
two. But I'm going to go with
Buffalo. Say Buffalo gets it right,
Pittsburgh, they're on outside looking in, trying to get in.
Let's talk about James Cook first and foremost.

(02:51:35):
Pittsburgh ranks 15th in rushingyards allowed per game.
Pittsburgh ranks 32nd. They are the worst team against
the pass in regards to passing yards allowed per game.
Buffalo is a better rushing teamin regards to rushing yards per
game. Buffalo also calls a high
percentage of rushing plays, so that makes me look into James

(02:52:01):
Cook rushing yards over under 831/2.
He's gone over that line in seven out of 11 games this
season. And even if you guys wanted to
take that down to 60 plus rushing yards for James Cook,
he's gone over that the same amount of times as he's gone
over 83 1/2. So just in that regard, you
know, if I were to take James Cook down from 83 1/2, I would

(02:52:23):
take him all the way down to 50 plus rushing yards.
He's gone over that in eight outof 11 times this season, 40 plus
rushing yards in all 11 games this season.
He's actually had 100 plus rushing yards in six out of 11
games this year. But he has never gone over the
83 1/2 rushing line in any career games against Pittsburgh.

(02:52:44):
He's played them in two games, had 31 and 79 rushing yards.
And I noticed that it seems likeJames Cook gets a bulk now.
He's had a touchdown in one out of two career games against
Pittsburgh. But it seems like James Cook has
a bulk of his rushing touchdownswhen the margin of victory is 15
points or greater. So it seems like there is some

(02:53:06):
sort of a correlation between James Cook rushing touchdowns
and blowout victories. But he's he's had more yards per
carry in every season that he's played in when his team wins.
And then he also has many more rushing touchdowns when his team
wins than when his team loses throughout history.
So if if Buffalo does win this game, I I think that there is a

(02:53:32):
stronger likelihood that James Cook goes over the rushing
yards. But let's go look at James Cook
receiving yards. I mentioned that Pittsburgh is
bad against the the pass, what they've done actually pretty
decently against defending, against the receiving yards and

(02:53:53):
receptions to running backs. But let's let's let's look at
James Cook, You know, over under12 1/2 receiving yards.
He's gone over that line in fiveout of 11 games this season.
He's gone over that 12 1/2 receiving line in three straight
games. He's had 10 plus receiving yards
in seven out of 11 games this season.
He's never gone over the 12 1/2 receiving yard line, and in any

(02:54:14):
career game against Pittsburgh, he has more yards per catch on
grass than turf in three out of Four Seasons, which is a good
trend since this game is being played on grass.
And then he has more yards per catch when his team wins or ties
rather than loses in three out of Four Seasons.
And he has more yards per catch at home than on the road in
three out of four career seasons, which is a bad trend.

(02:54:35):
James Cook is just not somebody who I'm thinking too highly of
today. Sam to Arnold 9 and O straight
up and seven and two against thespread, says Blessed up here.
Kind of crazy that you're not feeling too, too highly on him
with him playing. I think.

(02:54:57):
I think he can have a good day against Pittsburgh on the
ground. Cook.
I think James is going to cook. I like what James Cook has been
doing this year. I just don't necessarily like
this history that he has againstPittsburgh.
Yeah. And that so if I don't think

(02:55:18):
James Cook has a good day, that instantly makes me look for Josh
Allen, right? So if, if, if, if Cook doesn't
have a good day rushing, what about Josh Allen over under 28
1/2 rushing yards? Josh Allen's gone over that in
seven out of 11 games this season.
If we took that to 20 plus rushing yards, he's gone over

(02:55:38):
that 9 out of 11 games this season.
Josh Allen has had he's gone over the 28 1/2 rushing yard
line in three out of five careergames against Pittsburgh and had
exactly and and and he had exactly 28 rushing yards in the
games that he didn't. So if we if we take that hook

(02:56:01):
off instead of 28 1/2, we take if we can get it to over 27 1/2.
He has gone over that line and five out of five S all five
career games against Pittsburgh.He's had more yards per carry in
every season that he plays and when his team loses and then

(02:56:23):
when his team wins and this is his eighth season.
However, he has way more rushingtouchdowns in wins than losses
throughout his career. So if Buffalo wins, I like Josh
Allen anytime touchdown. If Buffalo loses, I think there

(02:56:44):
is a stronger likelihood that Josh Allen gets 29 plus rushing
yards. So I think he could do both.
And I just want to see what Pittsburgh has allowed rushing
touchdowns to quarterbacks this season.

(02:57:05):
They've allowed three. So they're not great or terrible
at defending against rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks.
I'd say, you know, just kind of depends on the game script that
you guys are going with my guts telling me Pittsburgh gets this

(02:57:26):
for some reason. But let's talk about Josh Allen
passing yards too, because Pittsburgh once again they've
allowed the most passing yards per game than any team in the
NFL. Josh Allen has gone over the 233
1/2 passing yards in six out of 11 games this season.
He's gone over that line in fourstraight games.

(02:57:46):
He's had 200 plus passing yards in eight out of 11 games this
season he's had. He's gone over his 233 1/2
passing yard total in three out of five career games against
Pittsburgh. He's had 200 plus and four out
of five career games against Pittsburgh.
He has averaged more yards per pass attempt in games that his

(02:58:07):
team wins or ties rather than loses in every season that he's
played in, and this is his eighth season.
Once again, if Buffalo wins thisgame today, I like Josh Allen
over the passing yards and Josh Allen any time touchdown.

(02:58:29):
If they lose, I learn more towards the rushing yards for
Josh Allen going over, although I can see all of that hitting if
you know Buffalo wins. Just the statistics tell me that
there's a strongly stronger likelihood that Josh Allen
reaches 29 plus rushing yards ifBuffalo loses.

(02:58:54):
Ivan said something about the past attempts, past attempts
versus Steelers today. Kincaid, is he back?
So now is a good time for us to go look at injury updates to see
if we have any injury updates. Let's go take a look throughout
the entire, throughout the entire league.

(02:59:15):
Is there anything that is popping out to us here?
Lava expected back. Just seeing if there's anybody
ruled out. OK, here's some news.
Tyler Warren, tied in for the Colts, is in line to play

(02:59:38):
against the Texans today due to an illness.
He was questionable. He still technically is, but I'm
seeing that he's in line to playtoday.
That's new news to me. Dalton Kincaid still
questionable due to a hamstring issue.
Is this a later game? Yeah.

(03:00:00):
So this game is at 4:25 PM Eastern Time.
The Buffalo and Pittsburgh game.That's definitely some news
worth monitoring there. I have mentioned in previous
shows that just because Kincaid is out doesn't mean that you
know Dawson Knox turns into thisall elusive superstar.

(03:00:21):
However, Pittsburgh has been vulnerable to, you know,
receiving yards and receptions allowed to tight ends this
season. And it's not just Knox.
It's the other guy, too. They got another tight end that
I can't think of at the top of my head who's, you know, getting
a little bit of work as well. But I remember Kincaid missed a

(03:00:45):
game earlier this year and Buffalo played on prime time and
I think they were going up against a weak tight end defense
and everybody was naturally gravitating towards Dawson Knox.
And I looked at the games where Kincaid hadn't played and Knox
really his, his statistics really just they didn't

(03:01:07):
skyrocket because of Knox's absence or, excuse me, Kincaid's
absence. Here's where I think Pittsburgh
absolutely has to take advantageof Buffalo.
Is that rushing attack. Jalen Warren, Oregon Gainwell,

(03:01:31):
you know Buffalo. Buffalo ranks 30th and rushing
yards allowed per game. They've allowed the 4th most 20
plus yard rushing gains, the second most 40 plus yard rushing
gains. I think there's that's where
Pittsburgh has to attack Buffaloand then get DK Metcalf involved
a little bit. You know, he has played one

(03:01:53):
career game against Buffalo and scored a touchdown in that game.
He had 108 receiving yards in his only career game against
Buffalo, 7 receptions in his only career game against
Buffalo. I think that's somebody that's

(03:02:13):
got to do good. If if Buff, if Pittsburgh trails
in this game, That's somebody you know, Pittsburgh's got to
look for. But yeah, man, I mean, I didn't
look up Jalen Warren, Oregon Gainwell statistics a whole lot
for this one. But if you like Pittsburgh in
this game, man, that's that's where Buffalo's vulnerable.

(03:02:42):
Overall, I do give Buffalo a bigpassing advantage, a good sized
rushing advantage, a slight third down conversion advantage,
a big red zone attempts per gameadvantage.
But here we are with Pittsburgh.Much like Cleveland, Pittsburgh
has a good sized sacks on the quarterback advantage and a big
turnover differential advantage.They also have a slight red zone

(03:03:05):
conversion advantage. When they are in the red zone,
they're converting touchdowns better than Buffalo, and
Buffalo's defense is allowing teams to convert touchdowns a
little bit more than Pittsburgh's defense.
I don't think Pittsburgh looks looks too bad here.

(03:03:30):
Also, Buffalo's two and three against the spread as a road
favorite, whereas Pittsburgh's one and one against the spread
is a home underdog. So technically, Pittsburgh has a
better record against the spreadas a home dog than Buffalo does
as a road favorite this season. I'm thinking, I'm thinking

(03:03:56):
Pittsburgh covers. Yeah.
And then give me the Chargers there some cover.
Yeah, definitely. Raiders.
Are we on the same page there, JB?
Yeah, charges over the Raiders. I like the Bills over
Pittsburgh. What about Carolina, JB and the

(03:04:17):
Rams Do I like? Metcalf says Blessed Up B.

(03:04:40):
Out of all out of all the the pass catchers for Pittsburgh,
yes, yeah, it's it's it's what makes most sense is what I
should say. It's easy for anybody to say,
yeah, I like Metcalf the best, right?
But I'm when I'm looking at how Buffalo defends against the
tight end position. They've allowed the fewest
receiving yards to tight ends and the fewest receptions.

(03:05:03):
They've allowed the third fewestreceiving yards to running backs
and 7th fewest receptions to running backs.
So that leaves us with their their wide receiver defense,
which they were not in the top 12 or so in defending against
that this season. So I think when Pittsburgh's
passing the ball, it makes the most sense for them to look for

(03:05:25):
wide receivers. And Metcalf has gone over the 46
1/2 receiving line in six out of11 games this season, a 108
receiving yards in his only career game against Buffalo.
So yeah, you know, I, I, I do. I do like Metcalf.

(03:05:55):
Seattle yeah. So JB, do you think there's any
possibility that Carolina upsetsthe the Rams today?
And almost a must win game for Carolina, right?
I think it is a must win, but no, I, I, I don't think there's
a possibility. I think the Rams are just too
freaking good, man. That's where I was leaning

(03:06:20):
towards. I think it was when we were
talking about that game. Rams as well.
Here's a game we haven't talked about at all, Arizona at Tampa
Bay. The all time series is tied
between these teams 11 to 11. Tampa Bay has won two games in a
row against Arizona. Arizona was actually three and
one against the spread as a Rd. underdog this season guys, and

(03:06:43):
Tampa Bay is 1 and two against the spread as a home favorite.
And Arizona, both of these teamshave lost three games in a row.
Tampa Bay does have a little bitmore to play for Arizona's three
and eight on the season and Tampa Bay's 6:00 and 5:00.
You know, I noticed that Tampa Bay has allowed the 4th most 20
plus yard receptions and the fourth most 40 plus yard

(03:07:05):
receptions. And Michael Wilson has 620 plus
yard receptions this season, 140plus yard reception.
McBride 620 plus yard receptions.
Marvin Harrison 8, 820 yard plusreceptions. 40 or 240 plus yard

(03:07:26):
receptions this season. He's back today.
Is he supposed to be back? Marvin Harrison, I think he's
somebody to look for in this game.
Dude, Jacoby Brissett is playinggreat, at least with his passing
yards. When I'm looking at his passing
yards this season, I mean he hasn't thrown below 250 plus

(03:07:50):
passing yards in a game this season and Tampa Bay ranks 27th
and passing yards allowed per game.
This guy is absolutely on my radar.
Jacoby Brissett passing yards 261 1/2 is what it was listed
at. I've seen that he's gone over
that in four out of six times this season where he's had two

(03:08:13):
plus passing attempts in a game.Yeah, I think, you know, Michael
Wilson and Marvin Harrison Junior are guys to consider
here. Michael Wilson, he's only gone
over the 54 1/2 receiving, the yards and three out of 11 games
this season, whereas Marvin Harrison's gone over his 52 1/2

(03:08:34):
receiving yards and five out of nine games this season.
I got to learn more towards Marvin Harrison just because of
his success rate this season. Trey McBride I think has his
hands a little bit full today. In his only career game against

(03:08:59):
Tampa Bay, he had 17 receiving yards and three receptions and
did not score a touchdown. Tampa Bay also ranks 8th best in
receiving yards allowed to tightends.
So Tampa Bay is more vulnerable to receiving yards allowed to
wide receivers, receptions allowed to wide receivers.
Now if you can find an Arizona, if if for some reason you guys

(03:09:23):
like an Arizona Cardinal to get receiving yards today for a
running back. Tampa Bay has allowed the most
receiving yards to running backsthis season.
Arizona doesn't have a terrific pass defense either.

(03:09:44):
Both of these teams are better against the rush relative to
other teams in the league. Any thoughts on Abuka today?
JB, Chris Godwin, even Tez Johnson.
Probably Abuka. Man, man, Baker's still out,

(03:10:04):
huh? He's supposed to play is the
last that I saw. I don't like the what I've seen
from him after he got injured. Obviously.
I think if it gets reactivated again, you know, you're looking
at a whole they're in trouble. I think they could be in big
trouble. We are, yeah.

(03:10:27):
Let's cash everything today, Ivan.
Let's cash everything today. Mariota has lost eight in a row
when listed as an underdog. See Ivan comes into the the chat
here with great statistics man. Drops that that that not.
Yeah. Oh man, about 20 minutes.

(03:10:55):
Right on. Yeah, I was.
I think Bryce Young was on my radar today, if I'm not
mistaken. Ivan, let me go take a look at
that Carolina game. Bryce Young over under 8 1/2
rushing yards. Now, the Rams have allowed the

(03:11:15):
12th fewest rushing yards to quarterbacks this season.
So I don't know about that man. Carolina, I think I would have
to look at his his trends and everything you know, Bryce
Young. Let me see if I have anything
from last week. Bryce Young, I don't know how

(03:11:43):
much I really like that prob. I liked it more so last week.
I think it was maybe the week before.
Just not a spot. I'm specifically looking for
today. Mariota has lost eight in a row
when listed as an underdog. Yeah, we haven't touched on that
Broncos game at all. I think that's what we'll do and

(03:12:06):
then call it a show. What do you guys like the most
of in chat? If you could let us know?
Do you guys like the history? What's most valuable?
The splits, you know, Rd. versushome splits, turf versus grass

(03:12:28):
splits, warm weather versus coldweather splits Is that is, are
those your guys favorite information about the show?
That's what really I think is going to be, you know,
beneficial moving forward. In retrospect, I wish I would

(03:12:51):
have done all that research in the offseason.
But I think that information is what really, I mean, I remember
on Thanksgiving, right, there was a, there was just one prop.

(03:13:13):
I think it was like a quarterbacks rushing yards.
And I said that I think it was Caleb Williams.
I said if the Bears win, I like him to go under.
Rushing yards. If the Bears lose, I like him to
go over because of those splits.And Bears won and he went under,
you know, so I think those splits are really important.

(03:13:44):
But yeah, let's talk about that Denver game a little bit here.
Yeah. And then and then call it a
show. Thanks for bearing with me today
guys. With it being Thanksgiving week
and everything, time was real limited on information, but we
still talked about some good stuff here today.

(03:14:05):
Had some fun, a little bit more fun.
OK Denver. The all time series is tied 8:00
and 8:00 between these two teams, Denver and Washington.
The Commanders. Since they changed their name to
the Commanders, they have a one and no all time record against
Denver. Last night I checked Denver's
favored by 6 1/2 over under 43 1/2.

(03:14:28):
These teams have gone under the 43 1/2 and six of their last ten
meetings. So Denver is 3 and eight to the
over this season, but don't I'm,I'm torn if this game goes over
or not because I see Denver's three and eight to the over and

(03:14:48):
I'm and I'm like, that makes sense.
They're a good defensive team, but they're one and O to the
over as a road favorite. Washington is 5 five and one to
the over this season, but they're two and O to the over as
a home underdog. I think.
Why do I feel like this game goes over?

(03:15:09):
JB? What do you what do you think?
Do you think there's 44 plus total points Statistics Tell me
maybe not so, but I'm looking into it a little bit more.
I don't know. What do you think, JB?
Maybe on the Denver side, maybe Denver scores it.
I think, I think it's going to be lopsided.
I think Denver's just going to Molly Wop Washington.

(03:15:33):
I don't think they stand a chance to be honest with you.
That's just being polite. Yeah, my feeling is that this
game goes over, but the the the statistics tell me it goes under
for the most part. So that's something that I'm not
touching the over under in this one.

(03:15:55):
Denver's won eight games in a row.
Washington's won. Washington has lost six games in
a row. I give Denver a big passing
advantage. I don't I don't actually give
anybody a clear rushing advantage, but the considering
that Jayden Daniels is out, probably give Denver a slight
rushing advantage here today. Denver slight third down

(03:16:21):
conversion advantage, big red zone attempts per game
advantage, big sacks on the quarterback advantage and a good
sized turnover differential advantage.
I don't I don't see how Denver loses this game.
JB you too. You're are we in the same boat?
Yeah, if they do, which I hope they do, it'd be awesome.

(03:16:44):
It'd be really awesome. That would I, but there's again
I I don't see any possibility ofthat happening.
Washington's vulnerable to the run.
They're vulnerable to the past. They do not have a good defense.
Denver. I think they can just kind of do

(03:17:06):
whatever they want to in this one.
Yeah, I think shop is pretty much open for all all Bronco
props. I'd probably have to learn more
towards rushing Props for the Broncos.

(03:17:29):
I could see them kind of runningaway with this one, you know,
but they got a rookie as their, you know, lead bag.
RJ Harvey, he's only gone over his rushing line and in two out
of 11 games this season, 53 1/2,which is which is not good, you
know, but he should. My guess is that he would get a

(03:17:50):
higher workload today. But, you know, they got
McLaughlin listed at over under 24 1/2.
So I think Mclaughlin's going toeat into his workload a little
bit. And I think that line is maybe a
little too high for Harvey. Yeah, it probably is.
Be honest with you. I really like Franklin, man.

(03:18:15):
When I'm looking at Broncos, Denver's red zone targets, I
know earlier this year Franklin led the Broncos and red zone
targets and he still does. He's near the top of the league.
I don't hear a whole lot of people talking about Troy
Franklin and I think that's somebody that's going under the

(03:18:35):
radar right now for this Broncosteam.
Now, he's only gone over the 47 1/2 receiving yards and four out
of 11 games this season. But if we took that the 40 plus,
we're looking at six out of 11 games this season.
But I'm not necessarily talking about his receiving yards.
I'm more so maybe interested in an any time touchdown for him

(03:18:56):
since he is the Broncos top Redstone target.
And I see Broncos. I think the Broncos will have
plenty of red zone opportunitiestoday and I think they'll have a
good chance of converting touchdowns when they enter the
red zone. Let's go see where Washington's

(03:19:17):
most vulnerable. They rank fifth worst and
receiving touchdowns allowed to wide receivers Let's go see some
other where Washington's vulnerable. 8 rushing touchdowns

(03:19:37):
to running backs, which is a little below league average.
A little not not good, I shouldn't say.
I mean tight ends, they've allowed the third most receiving
touchdowns to tight ends. So what about a rushing
touchdown for Bo Nicks? Possibly they've only allowed
one rushing touchdown to a quarterback.
So I'd maybe be a little bit weary about Bo Nicks getting in

(03:20:01):
today for a touchdown. I don't have Bo Nicks splits in
front of me either. You know, like Rd. versus.
Way home and and grass versus turf, I would look at you guys

(03:20:22):
have time to look into that stuff before before that game
tonight. I think that could be some
valuable information. I like to view that on ESPN.com.
You know, Sutton, he's gone overhis receiving line 49 1/2 and 7

(03:20:44):
out of 11 games this season compared to Franklin going over
his and four out of 11. So receiving yards and probably
learn more towards Sutton. I didn't, you know, Sutton
versus Washington. Let me see if he's played any
games against Washington. He had 40 and 66 receiving yards
and two career games against Washington, so that sounds about

(03:21:06):
right. Maybe taking him down to 40
plus, but he's gone over 40 plus, the same amount as he's
gone over the 49 1/2 plus this season.
But that history against Washington makes me feel more
comfortable taking Sutton for 40plus receiving yards.

(03:21:29):
So I do think Sutton has a better chance to hit 40 plus
receiving yards than Franklin does, but I think Franklin has a
better chance of getting a touchdown.
I would also look to see who wonthe Broncos has the most 40 plus
yard receptions this season. Same with believe it or not, the

(03:21:50):
Broncos have allowed the third most 40 plus yard receptions
too. So I think if Washington hangs
around in this one, they're going to need a big play or two
from somebody in that passing game.
You know, Debo's had a 4140 plus, or excuse me, Terry
Mclaurin had 140 plus yard receiving game this season.

(03:22:14):
Debo hasn't had any, but he's had 620 plus yard receptions and
well, Denver hasn't allowed a bunch of those.
Really it's the 40 plus yard receptions that I'm looking for
for Washington. Those explosive plays and
through the air for Washington is how I think they could

(03:22:35):
surprise people in this one. I really think that's that's
where it's at. I do want to mention real quick,
you know, Mariota, 26 1/2 rushing yards.
He's gone over that line in fourout of six games this season.
He's had 20 plus rushing yards in all six games this season.

(03:22:56):
Now, Denver does rank second best and rushing yards allowed
to quarterbacks, but it's a goodtrend there.
Also Krosky Merritt, 24 1/2 rushing yards.
He's gone over that line in 10 out of 11 games this season.
He had 17 rushing yards in the game that he didn't go over.
Denver once again, good rush defense, good at at limiting

(03:23:17):
running backs rushing yards. But you know, 10 out of 11.
Let's let's put it this way. If McCaffrey has 40 plus
receiving yards today, I think there's I think Mccroskey
Merritt gets 25 plus rushing yards.
But if McCaffrey does not have those 40 plus receiving yards
today, thinking maybe well, I think McCaffrey may be in a

(03:23:40):
little bit different of a situation and cross key merit,
but still give me cross key merits to go under the rushing
yards. If if McCaffrey doesn't have 40
plus receiving yards today, I know that's a completely
different game and all that, but.

(03:24:06):
Yeah, JBI was, I was telling people that I was, you know,
really trying to find some time and we might not be able to do
it this season, right? Hopefully I do.
But to analyze what went right and what went wrong in a lot of
these a lot of these games, you know that I'm talking about

(03:24:27):
here, which way I'm leaning. And then you know what?
Cool outcome was. Yeah, we definitely have to
bring to the table here, so. Yeah, see where the stats are,
man. You know, I think even even

(03:24:47):
maybe on like Tuesday, I think that'd be a good time for that
on every Tuesday, just kind of seeing which way the stats were
telling us to go and doing a little recap.
Yeah, I know you were trying to get me to do that earlier this
season, but I I feel like now it's just like we have to so.

(03:25:08):
Well, I'm thinking, I don't think I was trying to get you to
do it like earlier this. I think it was more sort of just
me trying to get like, because at that point there's not really
a lot of like NFL week 1, week two, Week 3, there's not a lot
of data, you know, for you to gooff of.
So yeah, in that same aspect, there wouldn't be a lot of data
to go off of. You know, you'd be like, oh, I'm

(03:25:28):
three and two, like OK, congratulations.
You know what I mean? Like peak me, you know, like it,
it'd be a lot better. And I think and it would look a
lot better and any aspect reallyif we were just like, yo, you
know, through weeks 12, you know, 106 and 3, you know what I

(03:25:51):
mean? Yeah, because I I absolutely, I
mean, I absolutely want to go back and look at all these games
where players have gone over this line and 12 out of all 12
games this season and see how many, yeah, man, hit versus it
hasn't. Yeah, man.
And a bunch of other stuff. So yeah, I yeah, I do.

(03:26:16):
I'm surprisingly most interestedabout San Francisco at Cleveland
today. I don't really pay attention to
either of these teams, but just really looking forward to it
today. You know, being a Rockies fan,
yeah. I mean, I know Shadour Sanders.
I like Shadour Sanders. And being a Cowboys fan, you
know, I want to see Shadour Sanders do good.

(03:26:39):
Being Deion's son and everything.
I grew up watching Deion Sanders, you know.
So right, right. We'll see how Shadour does today
anyways. Yeah, I'm, I'm excited to see
him. I mean, you know, I mean, he's
he's, you know, he played college ball not too far from
here, you know, But yeah, I'm, Iwould like to see him succeed,

(03:27:03):
you know, especially with with the way that everything
transpired with his draft and everything like that.
And since then, I'd really like to see him succeed.
I'd really like to see him succeed someplace else too.
Like there's a total slap in thein all faces.
That's what I really like to see.
But hey. Yeah, you know, I'll see you

(03:27:28):
guys tomorrow morning. We'll break down the the Giants
versus New England Patriots gamefor tomorrow nights.
We'll break that down tomorrow and I'm trying to think just
like a last question that I havefor you, JB.
Who do you think is a player that people are going to be high

(03:27:49):
on today that underperforms, that does not do well?
Jonathan Taylor. I'm going to go with shoot on
the spot. I don't know, man.
I think it was James Cook that Iwas a little weary about.

(03:28:10):
And then what about a sleeper player that that maybe is going
to go off and people are not expecting it?
Oh man, it's. Going to be Devin Neil, running
back for the Saints, Used to play, he's a rookie, used to
play for the Kansas Jayhawks. And with Camaro being out today,

(03:28:32):
he's got that lead running back role against like a pretty
vulnerable Miami rush defense. I'm going to say the third
string quarterback for the Minnesota Vikings.
OK. Yeah, Yeah, why not?
Sounds good, man. All right, Well, thank you guys

(03:28:52):
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(03:29:16):
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(03:30:00):
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Dark jersey. Hey.
Anytime. Jersey bro, you win winner gets

(03:30:23):
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(03:30:47):
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JB Do we have other people coming on now?
Yeah, yeah. OK, cool.
So they may be in tune with the injury updates if I didn't cover
any of them. I know we have some last minute
ones and then. Can we all give blessed up PA

(03:31:14):
round of applause. I mean, thank you so much for.
Those. Statistics, man, you know, like
every week you're in here dropping dropping statistics for
us. So we really appreciate it, man,
not just you being here and and tuning in but and hanging out
with us, but definitely those statistics as well.
So thanks, blessed up P and we'll see you guys tomorrow.

(03:31:38):
Good luck today. Have a great day and take care.
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