November 30, 2025 • 21 mins
Building on the success of footfall insights we broaden the conversation with the Basket & Barometer podcast. Diane Wehrle CEO at Rendle Intelligence and Insights joins Simon for their monthly chat
In this episode we cover why average transaction value now matters more than footfall, and how Black Friday has shifted the peak. We share sector signals, consumer confidence trends, and what the budget and labour market mean for Q4
• Footfall softness versus inflation-adjusted sales decline
• Average transaction value as core survival metric
• Examples of ATV growth in small towns
• Discounting patterns and price guarantees in Black Friday
• Staffing planning shifting towards November peak
• Sector signals in health and beauty and fashion
• Consumer confidence at minus 19 and job market risk
• Online share stabilising and omnichannel basics that matter
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
SPEAKER_01 (00:05):
Welcome to the Productivity Podcast.
This is the first in our seriesBasket and Barometer, which is
renamed from Football Insightswith Diane Well.
Welcoming back, Diane.
How are you doing?
SPEAKER_00 (00:15):
I'm very good, Simon.
How are you?
SPEAKER_01 (00:17):
Good, good.
We've both been away and allsorts of things.
So we're going to catch up ontwo months today, aren't we?
September and October.
Lots going on, and at the timeof recording, we are a couple of
days away from the budget.
I don't know if I'm I'm notlooking forward to it.
I'm keen to know what's in it,but I'm not looking forward to
it.
So yeah, lots happening in theworld, still a bit of political
(00:38):
unrest, all those things, DonaldTrump weighing in and out of all
sorts of things.
So consistent theme for you knowfootball insights and I'm sure
for basket and barometer movingforward is that the world, the
world's an ever-changing place,we're evolving, aren't we?
And and being agile and havingto make quick decisions, especi
especially in that retailhospitality space.
SPEAKER_00 (00:58):
Absolutely.
I mean it's interesting, isn'tit?
Because retail is reallychallenging this year, but then
it's always been challenging.
I mean, I've been working inretail for oh quite a long time
now.
SPEAKER_01 (01:08):
Don't mention years.
SPEAKER_00 (01:08):
I know exactly.
Um, I started very young.
Um, and it's it's never been acase of where we've gone, this
is a brilliant economicenvironment.
Even when it was pretty strong,we didn't really ri appreciate
that it was strong because wealways had something to groan
and moan about.
But it is challenging, butretail is still retail.
And I was out and about onSaturday, and the stores were
busy and people were stillbuying, and albeit they may not
(01:31):
be buying in the same quantitiesand the same values as before,
but they're still buying.
But you know, retailers need tobe nimble, so we can run through
some of the numbers.
SPEAKER_01 (01:38):
Um we can, but we'll start, I'll we'll start with the
story.
I didn't tell you off airbecause I wanted to tell you on
air and engage your reaction.
So I was out and about shoppingon Saturday as well in the
Trafford Centre in Manchester,and it was it was very, very
busy, probably a bit a bit toobusy for my liking, but you
know, we went on a Saturday andit was Black Friday week
weekend.
Really good deals, went into awell-known sports shop, bought
(02:00):
my son something for Christmas,queued up about eight minutes,
not that we measure timeparticularly actually, but it
was not eight minutes.
Yeah, I know, and I was uhgetting a bit frustrated, as was
everybody else in the queue,because it was busy.
Paid, the lady apologised, thankyou very much, and she said to
me these exact words are youpaying by card?
I said yes, please.
(02:20):
Said press the green button,press the red button, tap your
card.
What did I do?
Press the green button, pressthe red button, tap my card,
because that's what she told meto do.
Now, what I was actually doing,because it it didn't dawn on me
until I came out, because I readthe screens and still pressed
the buttons.
The green button was to say I'dhad a great customer experience,
and the the red button was tosay that I didn't want to
(02:41):
donate, I think it was 20prounding it up to charity.
Oh and it and I and I kind ofcame out thinking I've I've
slept walked through thatbecause all I've done is been so
frustrated and I want to get outbecause it's busy, I've done
what she's told me to do.
But that store looks like it'sgoing to have a great customer
experience on that Saturday, allthe staff will be happy, the
senior leader should be happy,head office will be happy, and
(03:02):
it and the reality is it wasn't.
And the poor charity, they'rejust telling everybody to press
the red button.
So, on one hand, it it looksgood that you've got this great
experience.
On the other hand, there's thispoor charity saying we're not
getting many donations from thisretail.
I wonder why.
Yeah, it was just a point of youknow, you've got to you've got
to sell to your existingcustomers because it's hard to
get new ones, but don't alwaysbelieve the hype of the data if
(03:25):
you're working in a retailer youget and you've got to go and see
it.
SPEAKER_00 (03:28):
Absolutely.
I mean, retail is people, isn'tit?
It's about relationships, andwhat they've done essentially is
soured your opinion of them forthe future, which is a very
short-term method of working,really, because you will think
twice about shopping in thereagain.
SPEAKER_01 (03:44):
Yeah, and the irony was the the lady on the till was
very good, very polite,apologetic.
The experience at the till wasokay, the overall experience I
waited too long, but they'lltheir data will show not that it
would have named me, but in mycontribution, that it was fine.
unknown (03:58):
Yes.
SPEAKER_00 (03:59):
So what are you gonna do?
SPEAKER_01 (03:59):
What are you gonna do differently?
Nothing.
SPEAKER_00 (04:01):
I know exactly.
We still get a great pat on theback and probably a bonus.
SPEAKER_01 (04:04):
Yeah, exactly.
And they might be incentivisedagainst it, I don't know.
But I think my wider point wasin an in an environment where
it's really difficult to get newcustomers and even retain the
ones you've got, kiddingyourself that something's good
when the reality was somethingvery, very different.
What action are you gonna takein it?
Well, probably none because youthink it's alright.
SPEAKER_00 (04:22):
Absolutely.
Well, sometimes it's a lotcheaper and a lot quicker and a
lot easier, isn't it?
Not to do abs uh anything at alland just carry on.
SPEAKER_01 (04:29):
Yeah, um so I I'll I'll monitor, I'll keep an eye
on when they're announcing theirtheir figures, and yeah, I'm
sure they'll be up and it'll allbe great, but the reality would
be it's probably probably not asgood as it could be, or not not
as bigger opportunities there.
Anyway, that would that was myinteresting recollection from my
Saturday shopping on BlackFriday.
I say I sleptwalked through itand it dawned on me in the way.
What have I just done?
SPEAKER_00 (04:50):
I have I have seen a greater pressure amongst people
I places I've transacted with toleave positive Google reviews as
well.
Actually, in fact, I was in onerestaurant and the girl actually
filled it in for me.
She pressed the button on thestars for me.
SPEAKER_01 (05:02):
Been there before, yeah.
SPEAKER_00 (05:03):
And I thought and I said, hang on a minute, you've
just filled that in for me.
SPEAKER_01 (05:08):
Yeah.
Well, and that and that's theproblem.
When it becomes what getsmeasured gets managed, age-old
retail stuff.
SPEAKER_00 (05:13):
Yes.
SPEAKER_01 (05:14):
And I know we're diversifying slightly, but
that's the point of this newerupdated podcast.
I think I've been in placesrecently where somebody's the
whoever's served me hasperceived they've given me good
service and they've circledtheir name on the receipt and
said if you don't mind fillingit out, you know, I'm Adam, da
da da da.
And I've also been in placeswhere somebody's not been very
happy, and guess what?
(05:35):
They don't give them somethingto fill in.
So you can, I suppose my widerpoint, and this isn't just about
customer experience surveysgenerally, you you can be very
selective in how you distribute,and that has a very, very
significant influence on the thestats, doesn't it?
SPEAKER_00 (05:51):
It does, and it's a very easy these days to collect
data.
I mean, data, you know, there'sa whole there's so many channels
to collect data, so there'sinevitably a greater reliance on
those data, the data that'scollected in an automated way.
But actually, if you go back to20, 30 years ago, a lot of
mystery shopping took place,yeah, and you get a lot greater
insights through that type ofapproach where you know
(06:12):
someone's sitting there as apotential customer experiencing
it and reporting back on theirindividual experience.
So I think uh you know, arealistic view on data and you
know processes needs to betaken, and but also a
willingness to change.
SPEAKER_01 (06:26):
I mean, I think that has to be the case rather than
and I think that's the pointwith all the the point we're
both making is if you're playingthe system, what that retailer
hospitality company is missingis that feedback that says this
this didn't work for a number ofpeople on a number of occasions,
what can you do differently tomake it work for others or those
people again?
And negative do differentlyfeedback is probably even more
(06:49):
powerful than the than the thisperson was amazing, because
they're probably always amazingand not everybody recognises
them, and it's great they getsome personal recommendation.
But anyway, the the wider pointis if if you're not acting on
the feedback you get, if it'snot true feedback, you can't be
different, therefore, you'reonly going to keep on getting
what you get, right?
SPEAKER_00 (07:07):
Absolutely.
I mean it's interesting becausethe data that Beauclair provides
looks at all the different salesmetrics, and one of those is
average transaction value, andthat's a really important metric
at the moment because we'reseeing continuously the number
of transactions and the numberof customers drop year on year.
So fewer people are buying, weknow that.
So there's a full smaller poolof expenditure for the retailers
(07:28):
to take out of, and what theyneed to be doing is maximizing
the value of every one of thosecustomers.
And I'm actually working with asmall town who are utilising
Bauclair's data, have seen a biguplift in their ATV over the
last year, continually, everymonth virtually, they've seen
this big uplift.
All that despite the fact thatthe number of customers and the
(07:49):
transactions is declining.
So they're obviously doingsomething right, you know, and
this uplift is greater thaninflation, so it's not just
inflationary uplift, it is morethan that.
So those businesses are actuallyimplementing something that's
attracting greater spend from asmaller number of customers, and
that can only be good,particularly for a small town
that has a constrained catchmentarea.
(08:09):
Yeah, so they're doing that, soit's a tick in the box for them,
and so that's that is that'sfantastic, and also they're
quite an interesting cut townbecause they've got a different
profile from a standard highstreet.
Fashion isn't a big player forthem because they're a small
town, grocery, functional items,household items, uh health and
beauty, and to a lesser extentfood and drink.
So it's a very different profilefrom some towns, but they're
(08:31):
actually starting to see somegrowth there, which is really
positive.
So there are some real shininglights out there that is taking
place.
SPEAKER_01 (08:38):
Yeah, and I think we've said it before, and I'll
say it again that one of thosekey metrics for any retailer at
the moment, hospitality businessis driving ATV growth.
It's much easier to sell to yourexisting customers than get new
ones.
SPEAKER_00 (08:49):
Absolutely, and it's so much more valuable.
And you know, if you have asmaller number, a smaller pool
of customers, you start to getto know them and start to
personalize shopping experienceto a far greater degree, and
everyone's much happier.
So that leads us back to thenumbers.
SPEAKER_01 (09:03):
Let's share that.
Show me the good news then thateverybody's doing that, it's all
in growth.
Rachel Rivers has got no worriescoming up.
September and October were.
SPEAKER_00 (09:11):
Well, let's start with footfall because clearly
most places need footfall tosurvive, and footfall has
dropped as it has been doing fora decade or more.
September dropped by 1.8% and0.7% across all of retail in
high streets by 2.5% inSeptember annually, and by but
it rose slightly in October by0.6%.
(09:32):
Now, that's great.
That means you know, there wereslightly more customers in
October this year than therewere last year.
But is this translating intospending?
Not so much.
So the BRC, which tracksspending across the entire
piece, online, offline, in intown, out of town, saw an uplift
of 1.6% in sales in October.
So, but that's not as great asthe rate of inflation, which is
(09:54):
sitting at 3.6.
So, you know, in real terms,spending has dropped.
And Beauclair, who look atspending just in towns and
cities, so taking out retailparks, taking out outtown
shopping centres, they saw adecline in both September and
October of 4.1% in each month.
So, you know, there'schallenging times ahead and
(10:15):
therefore for towns and cities.
You know, but you know, it'sbeen ever thus, you know,
people, you know, if you'refeeling insecure about your
long-term financial prospects,about your job, and we know
employment is now 5%, and that'sthe highest since January 2021.
People are going to be sittingthere feeling very nervous.
And of course, we, as youmentioned, we've got the budget,
(10:36):
which at the time we'rerecording, it's two or three
days away.
People are wondering how it'sgoing to impact their own
household budget.
So they're being, you know,mindful of what they spend, and
quite rightly so.
SPEAKER_01 (10:48):
Yeah, so we we predicted at our forum a couple
of months ago that it would peakat 5%.
So it's got there a little bitearly.
So with what's coming in mind,clearly lots of businesses will
make or break in in the nextcouple of months as well, in
terms of it being their biggestquarter outside of those
companies like DIY that it'sEaster.
(11:08):
I would suggest that it's goingto be higher than 5%, maybe even
touch six then coming next year.
SPEAKER_00 (11:15):
I agree.
I mean, I'd the you know, theunemployment rate is not going
to increase rapidly in the nextmonth or so because people want
to retain their staff forChristmas.
But once whatever is in thebudget comes comes to fruition,
and you know, whether that beincreasing the national living
wage, you know, VAT there, it'sall on the table, isn't it?
That is gonna hit come, youknow, it's gonna come to bear in
(11:38):
a couple of months' time.
So, you know, we get throughChristmas, get through New Year,
and it's sort of Fed March timethat we're gonna see the start
to see again some increases ingreat more increases in
unemployment.
SPEAKER_01 (11:48):
And there was a big pullback in graduate courses, I
think, announced this year fromyou know all the big consulting
houses, all the big motormanufacturers.
Yeah, so then you've got Isuppose that tailwind of uni
leavers come what April, May,June that hit the market, and
there's there's just no jobsthere again.
SPEAKER_00 (12:06):
Absolutely.
I mean, grad jobs are harder tocome by than they have been for
a long, long time.
And you know, the and also atthe same time, you know, when
grads jobs were hard to come by,a lot of graduates went and did
some temporary work in bars andpubs and restaurants, and
they're cutting back onunemployment as well.
So it's really tough out therefor a lot of people.
So it isn't surprising thatspending has been very subdued.
(12:29):
Having said that, we're nowlooking toward Black Friday,
which is the end of this week,as we record.
And I don't know about you, butmy inbox has been flooded with
Black Friday offers, as italways is, I have to say, but it
is clearly a much longer periodthan it was in the past, and we
know this now.
And I wouldn't say it's a BlackFriday month, but it's certainly
at least a week, if not two orthree.
(12:51):
Looking back, looking sort offorward to where we are likely
to be this Black Friday versuslast Black Friday, is quite
interesting because actuallylast Black Friday was actually
very strong in terms of sales intowns and cities.
They were 1.8% up on 2023.
So my forecast of Black Friday,which I put together just before
the beginning of Q4, was sayingthat we were anticipating that
(13:14):
sales would be down by 1% yearon year, but that still may come
to fruition because actuallythere's been a fair bit of
discounting out there.
So, you know, we're not we'reexpecting a better month in
October, but not as great amonth as last year.
SPEAKER_01 (13:28):
Yeah, and I'm seeing a lot of electrical discounting,
things like PlayStations, thePlot 5's the cheapest they've
ever been, certainly your whitegoods.
Probably not so much, I know wetalked about it before in terms
of that furniture space.
There's more blanket discountsof 20% off here and there.
But the one thing that I haveseen, I don't know if you've
seen it a lot more this year, isin those emails, I'm getting a
(13:51):
and we guarantee this pricewon't be any cheaper in our
sale.
SPEAKER_00 (13:55):
Yeah, yes.
SPEAKER_01 (13:56):
So that giving the consumer that confidence that
you can buy it now, that's fine,don't wait, because clearly the
sooner the retailer can bet getthe money the better.
SPEAKER_00 (14:05):
Yeah, I think I think that's true.
And I think actually what ishappening now is that everyone
was talking for years and yearsand years about Black Friday
bringing Christmas forward.
I think it's most definitelythat, and I think actually the
peak that we used to experiencejust before Christmas, that run
up to Christmas, I think that'sgoing to become much more
subdued.
It's going to be sort ofstocking fillers and you know
that sort of thing, and peopleare going to use that last week
(14:27):
for a bit of leisure shoppingrather than the full-on
Christmas shopping that used totake place because they are
going to maximise thediscounting available through
Black Friday.
So, really, you know, in termsof what you guys do in terms of
looking at productivity ofstaffing and efficiencies, it
they need you know, retailersneed to be laying it on thick
around now, um, and actuallyprobably then easing off as you
(14:49):
get a little bit as you gettowards Christmas, because now's
peak.
SPEAKER_01 (14:53):
Yeah, it reminds me a little bit of the the I call
it the iPhone rush years ago.
We we do a lot in telco andthere was that massive peak.
I can't remember when it is endof September, is it start of
October when the iPhone gotlaunched and it it's
non-existent now because it'sall it's all done online, you
pre-order it, you go and clickand collect, you have it
delivered.
So, but that really helps thembecause it flattens their
(15:14):
staffing profile, which makes amassive difference.
And actually, everybody stillgets their iPhone, so it um it's
not a bad thing.
SPEAKER_00 (15:20):
No, for retailers themselves, I mean obviously
they're looking to future-proofthemselves, and quite rightly
so.
They're looking to add processesthat become much more
streamlined and make sure allthose additional NI costs don't
hit them again and again andagain.
Not so great for retailemployment, of course, and
future longevity of jobs, butbetter for the retail
sustainability.
SPEAKER_01 (15:39):
And are there any particular sectors?
I know again we've talked abouthealth and beauty before, where
it's it's kind of beenrelatively stable.
Certainly, the the moreconsidered purchases, so
furniture track not particularlywell.
Are those still consistent orare there any movers and
shakers?
SPEAKER_00 (15:54):
Well, in October, health and beauty had a bit of a
torrid time.
The ATV went up by 3.1%, whichis still below inflation, but uh
transactions dropped by over 8%,customers dropped by 6%.
So we can see that people werereally starting to pull back on
those discretionary purchases.
You know, fashion,interestingly, transactions
(16:16):
dropped by 2%, customers by2.6%.
So fewer people were buying, butit wasn't this huge drop, but
they've come from a much lowerbase, you know, they've had
these big drops.
And at the same time, their ATVwould drop by 2%.
So that's reflecting really thediscounting that's been
happening in fashion.
SPEAKER_01 (16:30):
Um still, yeah, everywhere's Christmas party
dresses and stuff, and uh,everyone I speak to in any
pretty much every organizationwe work with says, yeah, we
don't really have a Christmasparty anymore.
They give us X each colleagueand you you do what you want.
It's less HR hassle, less peoplehassle.
So that I don't know if if bigChristmas do still exist, I'm
out of the loop of it.
SPEAKER_00 (16:52):
I mean, I'm sure they do.
I've spoken with some my friendsand someone who work for big
corporates.
They they do have a Christmasparty, but it's certainly a lot
less because people are workingfrom home, so getting people
together, you know, it's muchmore expensive, people need to
stay in hotels and all that sortof stuff than they used to.
So, and I think people are a bitless, a bit more mindful about
(17:12):
their time and the cost anddoing it and how they're going
to, you know, manage that interms of family life.
So you're right, I don't thinkthe Christmas party is as big a
deal as it used to be.
And I think, you know, fashion'ssort of just expecting to be
discounting now, really.
It's just part of the course.
You know, I think we all need tobe a little bit sceptical when
we see the discount labels go onbecause they're probably not
(17:34):
actually being discounted atall.
SPEAKER_01 (17:36):
Yeah, it could be made to discount.
SPEAKER_00 (17:38):
Absolutely.
SPEAKER_01 (17:39):
Any other insights that you want to share before
you have a quick think aboutDecember?
SPEAKER_00 (17:44):
Well, I mean, only the you know, another element
that we need to think about whenwe're looking at a whole piece
of consumer confidence, andthat's bumbling along at the
bottom still, it hasn'timproved, it dropped to, you
know, it's it's from the summerit it it it it decreased, it you
know, it dropped away and it'snot really gotten back.
It's sitting the GFK end it'ssitting at minus 19 now in
(18:06):
November, and their months areslightly off kilter, so their
their November is mid-October tomid-November.
October is mid-7 minus 17,September minus 19.
So it's sort of bumbling alongat the bottom.
So people, it's just reinforcingeverything we know, really.
All the indicators are sayingthe same thing that it's tough
out there, and people aren'tspending money and feeling
(18:28):
nervous.
So, you know, there isn'tanything that is surprising,
particularly.
Internet sales as a proportionof total retail sales, is sort
of sitting there or thereaboutsin October.
It was 28.1% of all retailspending was online, slight
increase from September, whichis 27.5, but it's still sitting
just over a quarter of all it ofall retail spends online.
(18:52):
So, and but interestingly, foodstores, online food, doesn't
shift away from 9.6% of totalfood spending.
You know, the vast majority ofus go into store and buy our
food and have always done andprobably always will continue to
do that.
So, but it's clothing really,and that's sitting sort of
(19:13):
20-29% of total clothing spendonline.
But again, that's it's it'sincreased slightly, but not
massively, slight movementupwards towards the 30%.
And people are saying it's gonnatop out about 30% or so, so we
shall see for that.
SPEAKER_01 (19:28):
Excellent.
Well, we we head into the goldenquarter there, don't we?
So we're kind of high stakes,high stakes now for those that
that that have got everythingplaced in this period, I think.
So, any insight, any predictionsyou've made for kind of the
December and festive periodstart of sale?
SPEAKER_00 (19:48):
Yeah, I mean November's gonna be the stronger
month of the quarter, thestrongest month of the quarter,
but it's not gonna be amazing.
I did forecast an increase inDecember, I have to say, just
because December was soshockingly bad last year.
Yeah.
But we'll have to wait and see.
I wasn't I mean, that was donebefore the budget fraudry kicked
(20:09):
off.
So that has changed really thenarrative a little bit.
So we shall see.
I was only forecasting a one anda half percent increase in sales
in in December from last year.
But um, last year was very poorat nearly 8% down.
So, you know, we are we shallsee, we shall see whether we
bounce back a little bit fromDecember.
(20:31):
But hopefully, I think Novemberwith Black Friday might be quite
strong.
SPEAKER_01 (20:35):
Yeah, let's say look when I was out the weekend
around Manchester, there wasthere was a lot of people almost
to the point where you thought,oh, it's probably the busiest
I've seen Trafford Centre, Idon't go that often, but there
were there were a lot of peopleand a lot of people with bags,
which was which was good to seepeople enjoying themselves in
the the leisure part as well.
So fingers crossed for all thoseout there who that it's their
key period, you know, we'vehopefully given you a couple of
(20:58):
things to think about and aconsistent theme throughout the
the various iterations of thispodcast.
So fingers crossed, Di, andwe'll um we'll reconvene once
more before Christmas, andhopefully that's got some Black
Friday info in, and then it'sover to everybody else to
deliver over Christmas.
SPEAKER_00 (21:13):
Absolutely.
We'll see each other postbudget.
SPEAKER_01 (21:15):
Brilliant.
Thanks, Di.
SPEAKER_00 (21:17):
Take care.
Welcome to the Productivity Podcast.
This is the first in our seriesBasket and Barometer, which is
renamed from Football Insightswith Diane Well.
Welcoming back, Diane.
How are you doing?
SPEAKER_00 (00:15):
I'm very good, Simon.
How are you?
SPEAKER_01 (00:17):
Good, good.
We've both been away and allsorts of things.
So we're going to catch up ontwo months today, aren't we?
September and October.
Lots going on, and at the timeof recording, we are a couple of
days away from the budget.
I don't know if I'm I'm notlooking forward to it.
I'm keen to know what's in it,but I'm not looking forward to
it.
So yeah, lots happening in theworld, still a bit of political
(00:38):
unrest, all those things, DonaldTrump weighing in and out of all
sorts of things.
So consistent theme for you knowfootball insights and I'm sure
for basket and barometer movingforward is that the world, the
world's an ever-changing place,we're evolving, aren't we?
And and being agile and havingto make quick decisions, especi
especially in that retailhospitality space.
SPEAKER_00 (00:58):
Absolutely.
I mean it's interesting, isn'tit?
Because retail is reallychallenging this year, but then
it's always been challenging.
I mean, I've been working inretail for oh quite a long time
now.
SPEAKER_01 (01:08):
Don't mention years.
SPEAKER_00 (01:08):
I know exactly.
Um, I started very young.
Um, and it's it's never been acase of where we've gone, this
is a brilliant economicenvironment.
Even when it was pretty strong,we didn't really ri appreciate
that it was strong because wealways had something to groan
and moan about.
But it is challenging, butretail is still retail.
And I was out and about onSaturday, and the stores were
busy and people were stillbuying, and albeit they may not
(01:31):
be buying in the same quantitiesand the same values as before,
but they're still buying.
But you know, retailers need tobe nimble, so we can run through
some of the numbers.
SPEAKER_01 (01:38):
Um we can, but we'll start, I'll we'll start with the
story.
I didn't tell you off airbecause I wanted to tell you on
air and engage your reaction.
So I was out and about shoppingon Saturday as well in the
Trafford Centre in Manchester,and it was it was very, very
busy, probably a bit a bit toobusy for my liking, but you
know, we went on a Saturday andit was Black Friday week
weekend.
Really good deals, went into awell-known sports shop, bought
(02:00):
my son something for Christmas,queued up about eight minutes,
not that we measure timeparticularly actually, but it
was not eight minutes.
Yeah, I know, and I was uhgetting a bit frustrated, as was
everybody else in the queue,because it was busy.
Paid, the lady apologised, thankyou very much, and she said to
me these exact words are youpaying by card?
I said yes, please.
(02:20):
Said press the green button,press the red button, tap your
card.
What did I do?
Press the green button, pressthe red button, tap my card,
because that's what she told meto do.
Now, what I was actually doing,because it it didn't dawn on me
until I came out, because I readthe screens and still pressed
the buttons.
The green button was to say I'dhad a great customer experience,
and the the red button was tosay that I didn't want to
(02:41):
donate, I think it was 20prounding it up to charity.
Oh and it and I and I kind ofcame out thinking I've I've
slept walked through thatbecause all I've done is been so
frustrated and I want to get outbecause it's busy, I've done
what she's told me to do.
But that store looks like it'sgoing to have a great customer
experience on that Saturday, allthe staff will be happy, the
senior leader should be happy,head office will be happy, and
(03:02):
it and the reality is it wasn't.
And the poor charity, they'rejust telling everybody to press
the red button.
So, on one hand, it it looksgood that you've got this great
experience.
On the other hand, there's thispoor charity saying we're not
getting many donations from thisretail.
I wonder why.
Yeah, it was just a point of youknow, you've got to you've got
to sell to your existingcustomers because it's hard to
get new ones, but don't alwaysbelieve the hype of the data if
(03:25):
you're working in a retailer youget and you've got to go and see
it.
SPEAKER_00 (03:28):
Absolutely.
I mean, retail is people, isn'tit?
It's about relationships, andwhat they've done essentially is
soured your opinion of them forthe future, which is a very
short-term method of working,really, because you will think
twice about shopping in thereagain.
SPEAKER_01 (03:44):
Yeah, and the irony was the the lady on the till was
very good, very polite,apologetic.
The experience at the till wasokay, the overall experience I
waited too long, but they'lltheir data will show not that it
would have named me, but in mycontribution, that it was fine.
unknown (03:58):
Yes.
SPEAKER_00 (03:59):
So what are you gonna do?
SPEAKER_01 (03:59):
What are you gonna do differently?
Nothing.
SPEAKER_00 (04:01):
I know exactly.
We still get a great pat on theback and probably a bonus.
SPEAKER_01 (04:04):
Yeah, exactly.
And they might be incentivisedagainst it, I don't know.
But I think my wider point wasin an in an environment where
it's really difficult to get newcustomers and even retain the
ones you've got, kiddingyourself that something's good
when the reality was somethingvery, very different.
What action are you gonna takein it?
Well, probably none because youthink it's alright.
SPEAKER_00 (04:22):
Absolutely.
Well, sometimes it's a lotcheaper and a lot quicker and a
lot easier, isn't it?
Not to do abs uh anything at alland just carry on.
SPEAKER_01 (04:29):
Yeah, um so I I'll I'll monitor, I'll keep an eye
on when they're announcing theirtheir figures, and yeah, I'm
sure they'll be up and it'll allbe great, but the reality would
be it's probably probably not asgood as it could be, or not not
as bigger opportunities there.
Anyway, that would that was myinteresting recollection from my
Saturday shopping on BlackFriday.
I say I sleptwalked through itand it dawned on me in the way.
What have I just done?
SPEAKER_00 (04:50):
I have I have seen a greater pressure amongst people
I places I've transacted with toleave positive Google reviews as
well.
Actually, in fact, I was in onerestaurant and the girl actually
filled it in for me.
She pressed the button on thestars for me.
SPEAKER_01 (05:02):
Been there before, yeah.
SPEAKER_00 (05:03):
And I thought and I said, hang on a minute, you've
just filled that in for me.
SPEAKER_01 (05:08):
Yeah.
Well, and that and that's theproblem.
When it becomes what getsmeasured gets managed, age-old
retail stuff.
SPEAKER_00 (05:13):
Yes.
SPEAKER_01 (05:14):
And I know we're diversifying slightly, but
that's the point of this newerupdated podcast.
I think I've been in placesrecently where somebody's the
whoever's served me hasperceived they've given me good
service and they've circledtheir name on the receipt and
said if you don't mind fillingit out, you know, I'm Adam, da
da da da.
And I've also been in placeswhere somebody's not been very
happy, and guess what?
(05:35):
They don't give them somethingto fill in.
So you can, I suppose my widerpoint, and this isn't just about
customer experience surveysgenerally, you you can be very
selective in how you distribute,and that has a very, very
significant influence on the thestats, doesn't it?
SPEAKER_00 (05:51):
It does, and it's a very easy these days to collect
data.
I mean, data, you know, there'sa whole there's so many channels
to collect data, so there'sinevitably a greater reliance on
those data, the data that'scollected in an automated way.
But actually, if you go back to20, 30 years ago, a lot of
mystery shopping took place,yeah, and you get a lot greater
insights through that type ofapproach where you know
(06:12):
someone's sitting there as apotential customer experiencing
it and reporting back on theirindividual experience.
So I think uh you know, arealistic view on data and you
know processes needs to betaken, and but also a
willingness to change.
SPEAKER_01 (06:26):
I mean, I think that has to be the case rather than
and I think that's the pointwith all the the point we're
both making is if you're playingthe system, what that retailer
hospitality company is missingis that feedback that says this
this didn't work for a number ofpeople on a number of occasions,
what can you do differently tomake it work for others or those
people again?
And negative do differentlyfeedback is probably even more
(06:49):
powerful than the than the thisperson was amazing, because
they're probably always amazingand not everybody recognises
them, and it's great they getsome personal recommendation.
But anyway, the the wider pointis if if you're not acting on
the feedback you get, if it'snot true feedback, you can't be
different, therefore, you'reonly going to keep on getting
what you get, right?
SPEAKER_00 (07:07):
Absolutely.
I mean it's interesting becausethe data that Beauclair provides
looks at all the different salesmetrics, and one of those is
average transaction value, andthat's a really important metric
at the moment because we'reseeing continuously the number
of transactions and the numberof customers drop year on year.
So fewer people are buying, weknow that.
So there's a full smaller poolof expenditure for the retailers
(07:28):
to take out of, and what theyneed to be doing is maximizing
the value of every one of thosecustomers.
And I'm actually working with asmall town who are utilising
Bauclair's data, have seen a biguplift in their ATV over the
last year, continually, everymonth virtually, they've seen
this big uplift.
All that despite the fact thatthe number of customers and the
(07:49):
transactions is declining.
So they're obviously doingsomething right, you know, and
this uplift is greater thaninflation, so it's not just
inflationary uplift, it is morethan that.
So those businesses are actuallyimplementing something that's
attracting greater spend from asmaller number of customers, and
that can only be good,particularly for a small town
that has a constrained catchmentarea.
(08:09):
Yeah, so they're doing that, soit's a tick in the box for them,
and so that's that is that'sfantastic, and also they're
quite an interesting cut townbecause they've got a different
profile from a standard highstreet.
Fashion isn't a big player forthem because they're a small
town, grocery, functional items,household items, uh health and
beauty, and to a lesser extentfood and drink.
So it's a very different profilefrom some towns, but they're
(08:31):
actually starting to see somegrowth there, which is really
positive.
So there are some real shininglights out there that is taking
place.
SPEAKER_01 (08:38):
Yeah, and I think we've said it before, and I'll
say it again that one of thosekey metrics for any retailer at
the moment, hospitality businessis driving ATV growth.
It's much easier to sell to yourexisting customers than get new
ones.
SPEAKER_00 (08:49):
Absolutely, and it's so much more valuable.
And you know, if you have asmaller number, a smaller pool
of customers, you start to getto know them and start to
personalize shopping experienceto a far greater degree, and
everyone's much happier.
So that leads us back to thenumbers.
SPEAKER_01 (09:03):
Let's share that.
Show me the good news then thateverybody's doing that, it's all
in growth.
Rachel Rivers has got no worriescoming up.
September and October were.
SPEAKER_00 (09:11):
Well, let's start with footfall because clearly
most places need footfall tosurvive, and footfall has
dropped as it has been doing fora decade or more.
September dropped by 1.8% and0.7% across all of retail in
high streets by 2.5% inSeptember annually, and by but
it rose slightly in October by0.6%.
(09:32):
Now, that's great.
That means you know, there wereslightly more customers in
October this year than therewere last year.
But is this translating intospending?
Not so much.
So the BRC, which tracksspending across the entire
piece, online, offline, in intown, out of town, saw an uplift
of 1.6% in sales in October.
So, but that's not as great asthe rate of inflation, which is
(09:54):
sitting at 3.6.
So, you know, in real terms,spending has dropped.
And Beauclair, who look atspending just in towns and
cities, so taking out retailparks, taking out outtown
shopping centres, they saw adecline in both September and
October of 4.1% in each month.
So, you know, there'schallenging times ahead and
(10:15):
therefore for towns and cities.
You know, but you know, it'sbeen ever thus, you know,
people, you know, if you'refeeling insecure about your
long-term financial prospects,about your job, and we know
employment is now 5%, and that'sthe highest since January 2021.
People are going to be sittingthere feeling very nervous.
And of course, we, as youmentioned, we've got the budget,
(10:36):
which at the time we'rerecording, it's two or three
days away.
People are wondering how it'sgoing to impact their own
household budget.
So they're being, you know,mindful of what they spend, and
quite rightly so.
SPEAKER_01 (10:48):
Yeah, so we we predicted at our forum a couple
of months ago that it would peakat 5%.
So it's got there a little bitearly.
So with what's coming in mind,clearly lots of businesses will
make or break in in the nextcouple of months as well, in
terms of it being their biggestquarter outside of those
companies like DIY that it'sEaster.
(11:08):
I would suggest that it's goingto be higher than 5%, maybe even
touch six then coming next year.
SPEAKER_00 (11:15):
I agree.
I mean, I'd the you know, theunemployment rate is not going
to increase rapidly in the nextmonth or so because people want
to retain their staff forChristmas.
But once whatever is in thebudget comes comes to fruition,
and you know, whether that beincreasing the national living
wage, you know, VAT there, it'sall on the table, isn't it?
That is gonna hit come, youknow, it's gonna come to bear in
(11:38):
a couple of months' time.
So, you know, we get throughChristmas, get through New Year,
and it's sort of Fed March timethat we're gonna see the start
to see again some increases ingreat more increases in
unemployment.
SPEAKER_01 (11:48):
And there was a big pullback in graduate courses, I
think, announced this year fromyou know all the big consulting
houses, all the big motormanufacturers.
Yeah, so then you've got Isuppose that tailwind of uni
leavers come what April, May,June that hit the market, and
there's there's just no jobsthere again.
SPEAKER_00 (12:06):
Absolutely.
I mean, grad jobs are harder tocome by than they have been for
a long, long time.
And you know, the and also atthe same time, you know, when
grads jobs were hard to come by,a lot of graduates went and did
some temporary work in bars andpubs and restaurants, and
they're cutting back onunemployment as well.
So it's really tough out therefor a lot of people.
So it isn't surprising thatspending has been very subdued.
(12:29):
Having said that, we're nowlooking toward Black Friday,
which is the end of this week,as we record.
And I don't know about you, butmy inbox has been flooded with
Black Friday offers, as italways is, I have to say, but it
is clearly a much longer periodthan it was in the past, and we
know this now.
And I wouldn't say it's a BlackFriday month, but it's certainly
at least a week, if not two orthree.
(12:51):
Looking back, looking sort offorward to where we are likely
to be this Black Friday versuslast Black Friday, is quite
interesting because actuallylast Black Friday was actually
very strong in terms of sales intowns and cities.
They were 1.8% up on 2023.
So my forecast of Black Friday,which I put together just before
the beginning of Q4, was sayingthat we were anticipating that
(13:14):
sales would be down by 1% yearon year, but that still may come
to fruition because actuallythere's been a fair bit of
discounting out there.
So, you know, we're not we'reexpecting a better month in
October, but not as great amonth as last year.
SPEAKER_01 (13:28):
Yeah, and I'm seeing a lot of electrical discounting,
things like PlayStations, thePlot 5's the cheapest they've
ever been, certainly your whitegoods.
Probably not so much, I know wetalked about it before in terms
of that furniture space.
There's more blanket discountsof 20% off here and there.
But the one thing that I haveseen, I don't know if you've
seen it a lot more this year, isin those emails, I'm getting a
(13:51):
and we guarantee this pricewon't be any cheaper in our
sale.
SPEAKER_00 (13:55):
Yeah, yes.
SPEAKER_01 (13:56):
So that giving the consumer that confidence that
you can buy it now, that's fine,don't wait, because clearly the
sooner the retailer can bet getthe money the better.
SPEAKER_00 (14:05):
Yeah, I think I think that's true.
And I think actually what ishappening now is that everyone
was talking for years and yearsand years about Black Friday
bringing Christmas forward.
I think it's most definitelythat, and I think actually the
peak that we used to experiencejust before Christmas, that run
up to Christmas, I think that'sgoing to become much more
subdued.
It's going to be sort ofstocking fillers and you know
that sort of thing, and peopleare going to use that last week
(14:27):
for a bit of leisure shoppingrather than the full-on
Christmas shopping that used totake place because they are
going to maximise thediscounting available through
Black Friday.
So, really, you know, in termsof what you guys do in terms of
looking at productivity ofstaffing and efficiencies, it
they need you know, retailersneed to be laying it on thick
around now, um, and actuallyprobably then easing off as you
(14:49):
get a little bit as you gettowards Christmas, because now's
peak.
SPEAKER_01 (14:53):
Yeah, it reminds me a little bit of the the I call
it the iPhone rush years ago.
We we do a lot in telco andthere was that massive peak.
I can't remember when it is endof September, is it start of
October when the iPhone gotlaunched and it it's
non-existent now because it'sall it's all done online, you
pre-order it, you go and clickand collect, you have it
delivered.
So, but that really helps thembecause it flattens their
(15:14):
staffing profile, which makes amassive difference.
And actually, everybody stillgets their iPhone, so it um it's
not a bad thing.
SPEAKER_00 (15:20):
No, for retailers themselves, I mean obviously
they're looking to future-proofthemselves, and quite rightly
so.
They're looking to add processesthat become much more
streamlined and make sure allthose additional NI costs don't
hit them again and again andagain.
Not so great for retailemployment, of course, and
future longevity of jobs, butbetter for the retail
sustainability.
SPEAKER_01 (15:39):
And are there any particular sectors?
I know again we've talked abouthealth and beauty before, where
it's it's kind of beenrelatively stable.
Certainly, the the moreconsidered purchases, so
furniture track not particularlywell.
Are those still consistent orare there any movers and
shakers?
SPEAKER_00 (15:54):
Well, in October, health and beauty had a bit of a
torrid time.
The ATV went up by 3.1%, whichis still below inflation, but uh
transactions dropped by over 8%,customers dropped by 6%.
So we can see that people werereally starting to pull back on
those discretionary purchases.
You know, fashion,interestingly, transactions
(16:16):
dropped by 2%, customers by2.6%.
So fewer people were buying, butit wasn't this huge drop, but
they've come from a much lowerbase, you know, they've had
these big drops.
And at the same time, their ATVwould drop by 2%.
So that's reflecting really thediscounting that's been
happening in fashion.
SPEAKER_01 (16:30):
Um still, yeah, everywhere's Christmas party
dresses and stuff, and uh,everyone I speak to in any
pretty much every organizationwe work with says, yeah, we
don't really have a Christmasparty anymore.
They give us X each colleagueand you you do what you want.
It's less HR hassle, less peoplehassle.
So that I don't know if if bigChristmas do still exist, I'm
out of the loop of it.
SPEAKER_00 (16:52):
I mean, I'm sure they do.
I've spoken with some my friendsand someone who work for big
corporates.
They they do have a Christmasparty, but it's certainly a lot
less because people are workingfrom home, so getting people
together, you know, it's muchmore expensive, people need to
stay in hotels and all that sortof stuff than they used to.
So, and I think people are a bitless, a bit more mindful about
(17:12):
their time and the cost anddoing it and how they're going
to, you know, manage that interms of family life.
So you're right, I don't thinkthe Christmas party is as big a
deal as it used to be.
And I think, you know, fashion'ssort of just expecting to be
discounting now, really.
It's just part of the course.
You know, I think we all need tobe a little bit sceptical when
we see the discount labels go onbecause they're probably not
(17:34):
actually being discounted atall.
SPEAKER_01 (17:36):
Yeah, it could be made to discount.
SPEAKER_00 (17:38):
Absolutely.
SPEAKER_01 (17:39):
Any other insights that you want to share before
you have a quick think aboutDecember?
SPEAKER_00 (17:44):
Well, I mean, only the you know, another element
that we need to think about whenwe're looking at a whole piece
of consumer confidence, andthat's bumbling along at the
bottom still, it hasn'timproved, it dropped to, you
know, it's it's from the summerit it it it it decreased, it you
know, it dropped away and it'snot really gotten back.
It's sitting the GFK end it'ssitting at minus 19 now in
(18:06):
November, and their months areslightly off kilter, so their
their November is mid-October tomid-November.
October is mid-7 minus 17,September minus 19.
So it's sort of bumbling alongat the bottom.
So people, it's just reinforcingeverything we know, really.
All the indicators are sayingthe same thing that it's tough
out there, and people aren'tspending money and feeling
(18:28):
nervous.
So, you know, there isn'tanything that is surprising,
particularly.
Internet sales as a proportionof total retail sales, is sort
of sitting there or thereaboutsin October.
It was 28.1% of all retailspending was online, slight
increase from September, whichis 27.5, but it's still sitting
just over a quarter of all it ofall retail spends online.
(18:52):
So, and but interestingly, foodstores, online food, doesn't
shift away from 9.6% of totalfood spending.
You know, the vast majority ofus go into store and buy our
food and have always done andprobably always will continue to
do that.
So, but it's clothing really,and that's sitting sort of
(19:13):
20-29% of total clothing spendonline.
But again, that's it's it'sincreased slightly, but not
massively, slight movementupwards towards the 30%.
And people are saying it's gonnatop out about 30% or so, so we
shall see for that.
SPEAKER_01 (19:28):
Excellent.
Well, we we head into the goldenquarter there, don't we?
So we're kind of high stakes,high stakes now for those that
that that have got everythingplaced in this period, I think.
So, any insight, any predictionsyou've made for kind of the
December and festive periodstart of sale?
SPEAKER_00 (19:48):
Yeah, I mean November's gonna be the stronger
month of the quarter, thestrongest month of the quarter,
but it's not gonna be amazing.
I did forecast an increase inDecember, I have to say, just
because December was soshockingly bad last year.
Yeah.
But we'll have to wait and see.
I wasn't I mean, that was donebefore the budget fraudry kicked
(20:09):
off.
So that has changed really thenarrative a little bit.
So we shall see.
I was only forecasting a one anda half percent increase in sales
in in December from last year.
But um, last year was very poorat nearly 8% down.
So, you know, we are we shallsee, we shall see whether we
bounce back a little bit fromDecember.
(20:31):
But hopefully, I think Novemberwith Black Friday might be quite
strong.
SPEAKER_01 (20:35):
Yeah, let's say look when I was out the weekend
around Manchester, there wasthere was a lot of people almost
to the point where you thought,oh, it's probably the busiest
I've seen Trafford Centre, Idon't go that often, but there
were there were a lot of peopleand a lot of people with bags,
which was which was good to seepeople enjoying themselves in
the the leisure part as well.
So fingers crossed for all thoseout there who that it's their
key period, you know, we'vehopefully given you a couple of
(20:58):
things to think about and aconsistent theme throughout the
the various iterations of thispodcast.
So fingers crossed, Di, andwe'll um we'll reconvene once
more before Christmas, andhopefully that's got some Black
Friday info in, and then it'sover to everybody else to
deliver over Christmas.
SPEAKER_00 (21:13):
Absolutely.
We'll see each other postbudget.
SPEAKER_01 (21:15):
Brilliant.
Thanks, Di.
SPEAKER_00 (21:17):
Take care.
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