October 3, 2025 • 11 mins
Diane Wehrle CEO at Rendle Intelligence and Insights joins Simon for their monthly chat about footfall trends.August retail sales dipped 4.8% year-on-year despite stable footfall, with fashion and general retail taking significant hits. Consumers are demonstrating caution by making fewer transactions while spending slightly more per purchase, reflecting broader economic uncertainty and diminished confidence
• Consumer confidence remains low at -19 according to GFK's Consumer Confidence Index
• The savings ratio has reached its highest level since COVID, indicating people are saving rather than spending
• Mortgage approvals have dropped 2.4% compared to last August's 15.5% rise
• Upcoming November budget, rising unemployment, and global conflicts all contribute to consumer caution
• Q4 forecast predicts October sales down 3%, November down 1%, but December up 1.5%
• Food and drink remains strong at 25% of town centre sales
• Health and beauty continues to perform well, showing opportunity for retailers
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:05):
Welcome to the Productivity Podcast.
We have our favourite returningguest and world CEO and founder
of Rendall Intelligence andInsights to talk about August in
the high street and retail HiDi.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
Hi, simon.
Well, that's a lovelyintroduction.
Speaker 1 (00:18):
It is.
You are our favourite,favourite and most frequent
guest.
Oh, that's really nice to know.
Everybody values your opinion.
Speaker 2 (00:24):
Oh, that's lovely, Apart from my husband.
Yeah, that's a differentpodcast.
Speaker 1 (00:29):
So let's get into the detail then.
This is August, so peak summer,Well before kids get back to
school.
I'm just trying to recall.
The weather was all right, Ithink, wasn't it?
Speaker 2 (00:39):
It was good, it was nice.
It was hot, but not too hot.
Speaker 1 (00:42):
It was movable.
Speaker 2 (00:44):
Unfortunately the results weren't hot, sadly the
footfall, so activity intostores and also in high streets
was about flat, to be fair, onlast year, so it wasn't
disastrous at all.
But retail sales in highstreets were not so flat.
They actually dipped by 4.8%from August last year, which is
(01:06):
a bit disappointing because inJuly they were only 1.4% below
last year.
So it seemed to be gettingbetter.
But August took a bit of a dip.
Fashion took another hit, as didgeneral retail.
General retail is a mixture ofstores and they include
department stores, but also thediscounters you know B&M, home
(01:28):
Bargains, that sort of stuff, sothat sales in those retailers
dropped by 7.6%.
So it wasn't a great August, tobe fair.
But every cloud has a silverlining and whilst the reason for
the fall was a droppingtransactions rather than
customers, so the customersactually were about level for
(01:48):
last year, so that's a number ofunique customers buying, which
is good.
So that mirrored the footfalldata.
People were actually buyingfewer, so they were making less
transactions, so they were justvery cautious.
But those who did purchasetheir transactions that were
made, the average transactionvalue rose slightly, so bought
fewer items or made fewerpurchases, but actually spent a
(02:11):
bit more on what they did buy.
Speaker 1 (02:13):
So not it's good and bad yeah, but we've talked quite
a lot over the years about thisdriving the atv has got to be
one of the key metrics, becausegetting new customers clearly,
as we've seen throughout theconversation, certainly in the
last 12 months, is tricky, yeah,and there's a lot happening now
in the world isn isn't there?
I mean, certainly, if you focuson the UK, we've got budget
(02:33):
coming up.
I think we said it was Novemberwhen we were doing some
research offline.
There's quite a bit ofuncertainty around that isn't
there, of you know, taxes, ofwhat's going to happen to
certain things with stamp dutyor not, unemployment's taken a
bit of a spike, amp duty or not,unemployment's taking a bit of
(02:54):
a spike.
We did productivity forum acouple of weeks ago.
We ran it through a load of the, the models, gemini and all the
others and they were predictingit's going to continue to rise
to kind of mid-late 2025, 2026,sorry, and then drop off, so
that that's not great.
Clearly, there's donald's stillstill around and, unfortunately
, ukraine war is still around,so there's loads of stuff going
on, isn't there?
Speaker 2 (03:14):
Absolutely.
I mean people.
You know, the more people hearabout bad news in the media and
uncertainty, the more they feelnervous.
And you know there are a coupleof indicators that really
reflect that.
One is actually the savingsratio, which is produced every
quarter and it's lagged by aquarter, so it's a bit out of
date.
Which is produced every quarterand it's lagged by a quarter,
so it's a bit out of date.
But quarter one, 2025, thesavings ratio is sort of the
highest it's been since covidand, excluding covid, it's the
(03:37):
highest it's been since therecession in 2009, 2010.
So people are stashing moneyaway.
Then they feel nervous, theyfeel cautious, so they're not
spending unnecessarily and beingprofitably good, they're saving
for a rainy day and also, youknow, they're not spending
unnecessarily and beingprofitably good, they're saving
for a rainy day.
And also, the housing market isalways a good barometer of
confidence, I always think,because when people feel
(03:58):
confident in their employment,they feel confident in the
economy, they feel ready to makewhat can be the most
significant move for anyone intheir entire life.
And house price index is arelatively poor indicator of
what's happening because it'sdependent on what houses are up
for sale, which doesn't actuallyshow demand.
But if you look at the number ofmortgages granted last year, in
(04:21):
last August they rose by 15.5%from August 24.
This August they've dropped by2.4%.
So people are just not takingnew mortgages out.
They are being very, veryresistant to making that
enormous move because they justdon't know what's around the
corner.
And that shows in the GFKConsumer Confidence their latest
numbers, which actually are forSeptember but are published
(04:42):
mid-month.
They've dropped back again tothe July level of minus 19.
So we're not seeing anyimprovement in consumer
confidence at all.
Speaker 1 (04:51):
So people are just very, very cautious at the
moment and that other housemarket stuff's on the back of
interest rates going down isn'tit.
Speaker 2 (04:58):
Yeah well, they went down to four percent, but you
know they're because inflationis sitting at 3.8 percent.
They're not going to go downmuch further, if at all, until
the bank of england can see somereduction in cost pressures
that you know, push inflationdown a bit.
So we've got this balance ofhigh costs higher than desirable
interest rates, which is greatif you're saving, but not if
(05:20):
you're borrowing.
Unemployment that is higherthan people want it to be.
And people feel vulnerable attheir jobs because, as we talked
about in previous months, theNI changes have meant a lot of
organizations have streamlinedtheir workforce yeah and I don't
, and I might be doing peoplelistening to this service.
I don't know for those peoplethat don't see payroll figures
(05:43):
if they really grasp how big adeal that is no, they probably
don't actually, and I think Imean, you have some really good
take on that, you know, and Ithink people don't really
realize how big it is, even fora small business, even for me.
I'm a one-man consultant, ithit me, you know so yeah, it
cost it.
Speaker 1 (06:03):
It without giving figures away.
We're 30 people and it cost it,cost us recruiting one person
absolutely so that's one smallbusiness across the UK and how
many are there?
Speaker 2 (06:14):
Yeah, so you know.
And then I think you know, mostrecently has been the cyber
attacks and whilst this doesn'taffect every business, there's a
vulnerability to business thereand you know the fallout from
the JLR cyber attack on smallbusiness.
You know, I think if you're asmall business, you're thinking
(06:34):
to yourself.
Actually, if my biggestcustomer has an attack and I
lose business over the next year, what am I going to do?
You know, contingency planshave been put into place which
hit everyone.
Speaker 1 (06:44):
Absolutely.
So we turn the corner and we'reheading into some big events.
So Halloween seems to getbigger and bigger every year.
It feels like an americanismpasses me by slightly, but
anyway it's everywhere.
It's already in the shops, asare all the christmas tubs and
things.
So halloween's on the way.
Then we're black friday, cybermonday week month to christmas,
(07:06):
then clearly we're at christmas,so I know you've been doing
some thinking about what whatthe quarter four forecast might
look like.
Is there anything you can share?
Speaker 2 (07:15):
Yeah, absolutely.
I mean it's interesting withquarter four.
Obviously we're not in quarterfour yet, so we've still got
September to go, but it ispossible to look at what might
happen on the back of whathappened last year.
And the thing about looking atannual change or year-on-year
percentage change is that it'svery much a response to the
previous year.
So if you had a very strongcomparable in the previous year,
(07:36):
it's unlikely unless anythinglike we've gone into boom
condition that we're going tocarry on that trend.
Likewise, if it was very poorlast year, you're more likely to
have a better number this yearand I think every retailer in
the world knows that, and that'sthe upside of having poor
results in the previous year.
So last year we had not apositive October, but it wasn't
(07:59):
too bad.
So I'm anticipating thisOctober is going to be worse
than last year.
So I'm saying that we'relooking at a drop in sales.
Minus 3% In November was stronglast year.
I don't know if anyoneremembers, but Black Friday was
a really, really successfulperiod.
Of course, it's not just a day,it's a week now and actually
black friday itself led to asales increase in the history of
(08:20):
15 and a half percent annually,which is amazing.
This year I'm I'm seeing thatI'm forecasting that november
will be one percent down on lastyear, because it was about two
percent up last year.
Likewise, december was adisaster.
I think it was recognised thatthat boom that we'd hoped would
happen in the last week or twodidn't happen and sales were
(08:42):
down by nearly 8%.
So I'm actually forecasting anincrease in sales this year in
December of 1.5%.
I mean, it's not amazing but itis a positive change.
So we shall see how it startsto pan out, because you can
never anticipate At the momentit's very difficult to
anticipate what's going tohappen economically and you know
(09:03):
December will depend on, Ithink, what happens in the
budget at the end of Novemberhow people feel.
Speaker 1 (09:10):
Yeah, clearly there's some stuff that's hitting the
press, as I mentioned before,about stuff on houses and prices
, and they're back on pensionsagain.
So they're obviously feelingtheir way through and gauging
some reaction.
But yeah, I think there's a lotriding in november, certainly
from probably a business pointof view, if they touch business
rates or even vat I'mhypothesizing here, but that
(09:33):
that could be significant yeah,it all is.
Speaker 2 (09:36):
I mean, I think everything is just so sensitive
at the moment there isn't reallyenough buffer to be able to
withstand a change in any of themetrics, you know, any of the
inputs and people, to not reactto that.
Employees are feeling reallyquite vulnerable, as you know,
because employers are feelingvulnerable.
Speaker 1 (09:57):
Yeah, yeah, the market switched.
We'd been having thisconversation probably two years
ago.
It was a an employee's marketand people would switch jobs
when they saw it on linkedin andratings were going up and there
were retention bonuses and ifyou cast your mind back, they
couldn't.
I don't think they could findamazon delivery drivers, could
they?
And there were five, ten granda year there and everywhere to
sign on.
Yeah, that's completely flippednow.
(10:18):
So hence unemployment's goingup and that nervousness.
So not maybe a great avenue toturn the corner into the fourth
quarter and that golden periodfor lots of organizations.
But and we say every time,don't, there's still loads to
play for, there's still moneyout there.
There's this as a consumer.
There's some great offers.
Be really interesting to seehow the, the big multiples and
(10:41):
the supermarkets go from BlackFriday through to Christmas.
It could be a play intoconsumers' hands, with it being
a buyer's market.
Speaker 2 (10:49):
Absolutely, and I mean there have been some
positive shifts in sales.
So the drop that we've seen inclothing sales, that drop is
becoming smaller.
It's improved over the lastsort of eight months.
So fashion isn't as bad as itwas.
At the same time, food anddrink is still very, very strong
.
It's 25% of town centre salesnow.
(11:10):
Food and drink, followed byfood, then followed by fashion
and health and beauty, was stillonly about 9-10% of total sales
in town centres.
You know we've seen strongincreases in health and beauty
in the high streets.
So people are going into storesto buy health and beauty and
it's not just buying theproducts, it's, you know, the
gyms and the nail bars and youknow all of that self-care
(11:32):
element is really, really strong.
So there's lots ofopportunities for retailers to
climb on the back of that and toget some gains excellent lots
to play for positive news forthe next couple of months,
hopefully.
Speaker 1 (11:46):
Yeah, we will pause there and we will catch up next
month.
Thank you very much lovely,thank you.
Welcome to the Productivity Podcast.
We have our favourite returningguest and world CEO and founder
of Rendall Intelligence andInsights to talk about August in
the high street and retail HiDi.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
Hi, simon.
Well, that's a lovelyintroduction.
Speaker 1 (00:18):
It is.
You are our favourite,favourite and most frequent
guest.
Oh, that's really nice to know.
Everybody values your opinion.
Speaker 2 (00:24):
Oh, that's lovely, Apart from my husband.
Yeah, that's a differentpodcast.
Speaker 1 (00:29):
So let's get into the detail then.
This is August, so peak summer,Well before kids get back to
school.
I'm just trying to recall.
The weather was all right, Ithink, wasn't it?
Speaker 2 (00:39):
It was good, it was nice.
It was hot, but not too hot.
Speaker 1 (00:42):
It was movable.
Speaker 2 (00:44):
Unfortunately the results weren't hot, sadly the
footfall, so activity intostores and also in high streets
was about flat, to be fair, onlast year, so it wasn't
disastrous at all.
But retail sales in highstreets were not so flat.
They actually dipped by 4.8%from August last year, which is
(01:06):
a bit disappointing because inJuly they were only 1.4% below
last year.
So it seemed to be gettingbetter.
But August took a bit of a dip.
Fashion took another hit, as didgeneral retail.
General retail is a mixture ofstores and they include
department stores, but also thediscounters you know B&M, home
(01:28):
Bargains, that sort of stuff, sothat sales in those retailers
dropped by 7.6%.
So it wasn't a great August, tobe fair.
But every cloud has a silverlining and whilst the reason for
the fall was a droppingtransactions rather than
customers, so the customersactually were about level for
(01:48):
last year, so that's a number ofunique customers buying, which
is good.
So that mirrored the footfalldata.
People were actually buyingfewer, so they were making less
transactions, so they were justvery cautious.
But those who did purchasetheir transactions that were
made, the average transactionvalue rose slightly, so bought
fewer items or made fewerpurchases, but actually spent a
(02:11):
bit more on what they did buy.
Speaker 1 (02:13):
So not it's good and bad yeah, but we've talked quite
a lot over the years about thisdriving the atv has got to be
one of the key metrics, becausegetting new customers clearly,
as we've seen throughout theconversation, certainly in the
last 12 months, is tricky, yeah,and there's a lot happening now
in the world isn isn't there?
I mean, certainly, if you focuson the UK, we've got budget
(02:33):
coming up.
I think we said it was Novemberwhen we were doing some
research offline.
There's quite a bit ofuncertainty around that isn't
there, of you know, taxes, ofwhat's going to happen to
certain things with stamp dutyor not, unemployment's taken a
bit of a spike, amp duty or not,unemployment's taking a bit of
(02:54):
a spike.
We did productivity forum acouple of weeks ago.
We ran it through a load of the, the models, gemini and all the
others and they were predictingit's going to continue to rise
to kind of mid-late 2025, 2026,sorry, and then drop off, so
that that's not great.
Clearly, there's donald's stillstill around and, unfortunately
, ukraine war is still around,so there's loads of stuff going
on, isn't there?
Speaker 2 (03:14):
Absolutely.
I mean people.
You know, the more people hearabout bad news in the media and
uncertainty, the more they feelnervous.
And you know there are a coupleof indicators that really
reflect that.
One is actually the savingsratio, which is produced every
quarter and it's lagged by aquarter, so it's a bit out of
date.
Which is produced every quarterand it's lagged by a quarter,
so it's a bit out of date.
But quarter one, 2025, thesavings ratio is sort of the
highest it's been since covidand, excluding covid, it's the
(03:37):
highest it's been since therecession in 2009, 2010.
So people are stashing moneyaway.
Then they feel nervous, theyfeel cautious, so they're not
spending unnecessarily and beingprofitably good, they're saving
for a rainy day and also, youknow, they're not spending
unnecessarily and beingprofitably good, they're saving
for a rainy day.
And also, the housing market isalways a good barometer of
confidence, I always think,because when people feel
(03:58):
confident in their employment,they feel confident in the
economy, they feel ready to makewhat can be the most
significant move for anyone intheir entire life.
And house price index is arelatively poor indicator of
what's happening because it'sdependent on what houses are up
for sale, which doesn't actuallyshow demand.
But if you look at the number ofmortgages granted last year, in
(04:21):
last August they rose by 15.5%from August 24.
This August they've dropped by2.4%.
So people are just not takingnew mortgages out.
They are being very, veryresistant to making that
enormous move because they justdon't know what's around the
corner.
And that shows in the GFKConsumer Confidence their latest
numbers, which actually are forSeptember but are published
(04:42):
mid-month.
They've dropped back again tothe July level of minus 19.
So we're not seeing anyimprovement in consumer
confidence at all.
Speaker 1 (04:51):
So people are just very, very cautious at the
moment and that other housemarket stuff's on the back of
interest rates going down isn'tit.
Speaker 2 (04:58):
Yeah well, they went down to four percent, but you
know they're because inflationis sitting at 3.8 percent.
They're not going to go downmuch further, if at all, until
the bank of england can see somereduction in cost pressures
that you know, push inflationdown a bit.
So we've got this balance ofhigh costs higher than desirable
interest rates, which is greatif you're saving, but not if
(05:20):
you're borrowing.
Unemployment that is higherthan people want it to be.
And people feel vulnerable attheir jobs because, as we talked
about in previous months, theNI changes have meant a lot of
organizations have streamlinedtheir workforce yeah and I don't
, and I might be doing peoplelistening to this service.
I don't know for those peoplethat don't see payroll figures
(05:43):
if they really grasp how big adeal that is no, they probably
don't actually, and I think Imean, you have some really good
take on that, you know, and Ithink people don't really
realize how big it is, even fora small business, even for me.
I'm a one-man consultant, ithit me, you know so yeah, it
cost it.
Speaker 1 (06:03):
It without giving figures away.
We're 30 people and it cost it,cost us recruiting one person
absolutely so that's one smallbusiness across the UK and how
many are there?
Speaker 2 (06:14):
Yeah, so you know.
And then I think you know, mostrecently has been the cyber
attacks and whilst this doesn'taffect every business, there's a
vulnerability to business thereand you know the fallout from
the JLR cyber attack on smallbusiness.
You know, I think if you're asmall business, you're thinking
(06:34):
to yourself.
Actually, if my biggestcustomer has an attack and I
lose business over the next year, what am I going to do?
You know, contingency planshave been put into place which
hit everyone.
Speaker 1 (06:44):
Absolutely.
So we turn the corner and we'reheading into some big events.
So Halloween seems to getbigger and bigger every year.
It feels like an americanismpasses me by slightly, but
anyway it's everywhere.
It's already in the shops, asare all the christmas tubs and
things.
So halloween's on the way.
Then we're black friday, cybermonday week month to christmas,
(07:06):
then clearly we're at christmas,so I know you've been doing
some thinking about what whatthe quarter four forecast might
look like.
Is there anything you can share?
Speaker 2 (07:15):
Yeah, absolutely.
I mean it's interesting withquarter four.
Obviously we're not in quarterfour yet, so we've still got
September to go, but it ispossible to look at what might
happen on the back of whathappened last year.
And the thing about looking atannual change or year-on-year
percentage change is that it'svery much a response to the
previous year.
So if you had a very strongcomparable in the previous year,
(07:36):
it's unlikely unless anythinglike we've gone into boom
condition that we're going tocarry on that trend.
Likewise, if it was very poorlast year, you're more likely to
have a better number this yearand I think every retailer in
the world knows that, and that'sthe upside of having poor
results in the previous year.
So last year we had not apositive October, but it wasn't
(07:59):
too bad.
So I'm anticipating thisOctober is going to be worse
than last year.
So I'm saying that we'relooking at a drop in sales.
Minus 3% In November was stronglast year.
I don't know if anyoneremembers, but Black Friday was
a really, really successfulperiod.
Of course, it's not just a day,it's a week now and actually
black friday itself led to asales increase in the history of
(08:20):
15 and a half percent annually,which is amazing.
This year I'm I'm seeing thatI'm forecasting that november
will be one percent down on lastyear, because it was about two
percent up last year.
Likewise, december was adisaster.
I think it was recognised thatthat boom that we'd hoped would
happen in the last week or twodidn't happen and sales were
(08:42):
down by nearly 8%.
So I'm actually forecasting anincrease in sales this year in
December of 1.5%.
I mean, it's not amazing but itis a positive change.
So we shall see how it startsto pan out, because you can
never anticipate At the momentit's very difficult to
anticipate what's going tohappen economically and you know
(09:03):
December will depend on, Ithink, what happens in the
budget at the end of Novemberhow people feel.
Speaker 1 (09:10):
Yeah, clearly there's some stuff that's hitting the
press, as I mentioned before,about stuff on houses and prices
, and they're back on pensionsagain.
So they're obviously feelingtheir way through and gauging
some reaction.
But yeah, I think there's a lotriding in november, certainly
from probably a business pointof view, if they touch business
rates or even vat I'mhypothesizing here, but that
(09:33):
that could be significant yeah,it all is.
Speaker 2 (09:36):
I mean, I think everything is just so sensitive
at the moment there isn't reallyenough buffer to be able to
withstand a change in any of themetrics, you know, any of the
inputs and people, to not reactto that.
Employees are feeling reallyquite vulnerable, as you know,
because employers are feelingvulnerable.
Speaker 1 (09:57):
Yeah, yeah, the market switched.
We'd been having thisconversation probably two years
ago.
It was a an employee's marketand people would switch jobs
when they saw it on linkedin andratings were going up and there
were retention bonuses and ifyou cast your mind back, they
couldn't.
I don't think they could findamazon delivery drivers, could
they?
And there were five, ten granda year there and everywhere to
sign on.
Yeah, that's completely flippednow.
(10:18):
So hence unemployment's goingup and that nervousness.
So not maybe a great avenue toturn the corner into the fourth
quarter and that golden periodfor lots of organizations.
But and we say every time,don't, there's still loads to
play for, there's still moneyout there.
There's this as a consumer.
There's some great offers.
Be really interesting to seehow the, the big multiples and
(10:41):
the supermarkets go from BlackFriday through to Christmas.
It could be a play intoconsumers' hands, with it being
a buyer's market.
Speaker 2 (10:49):
Absolutely, and I mean there have been some
positive shifts in sales.
So the drop that we've seen inclothing sales, that drop is
becoming smaller.
It's improved over the lastsort of eight months.
So fashion isn't as bad as itwas.
At the same time, food anddrink is still very, very strong
.
It's 25% of town centre salesnow.
(11:10):
Food and drink, followed byfood, then followed by fashion
and health and beauty, was stillonly about 9-10% of total sales
in town centres.
You know we've seen strongincreases in health and beauty
in the high streets.
So people are going into storesto buy health and beauty and
it's not just buying theproducts, it's, you know, the
gyms and the nail bars and youknow all of that self-care
(11:32):
element is really, really strong.
So there's lots ofopportunities for retailers to
climb on the back of that and toget some gains excellent lots
to play for positive news forthe next couple of months,
hopefully.
Speaker 1 (11:46):
Yeah, we will pause there and we will catch up next
month.
Thank you very much lovely,thank you.
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