November 19, 2025 • 28 mins
Please text and tell us what you like
Markets don’t break because of a single headline—they bend under the weight of what we choose to trust. We dig into where confidence belongs right now, from focused bets on innovation to the steady ballast of cash and gold. Along the way, we spotlight an underrated growth engine: America’s university system, where research, endowments, and relentless training keep producing the people and ideas that power AI, advanced chips, health tech, and the next wave of startups.
We get honest about risk. Crypto’s shifting identity and the chorus of promoters look a lot more like a sentiment trade than a true hedge, and parts of private credit carry opacity and liquidity traps that investors too often ignore. Time horizon is a real edge; illiquidity by itself isn’t. We also unpack why government policy and tariff theatrics can distort decisions, and how markets frequently climb despite policy noise, not because of it. If you’re searching for a practical framework for innovation investing, risk management, and portfolio construction, this conversation offers a grounded path.
There’s a human side to returns that rarely trends. Attention spans are shrinking, snap decisions are rising, and that’s bad for compounding. We make the case for a slower, clearer process—sleep on choices, define outcomes, and check assumptions—while elevating wellness as central to financial performance. Health, focus, and flexibility aren’t perks; they are part of your capital stack. Employers who support hybrid work and recovery build stronger teams, and investors who protect their energy make better calls across cycles.
If this resonates, follow the show, share it with a friend, and leave a quick review. Your feedback shapes what we explore next, and your questions might steer a future episode—tell us where you place your trust.
Straight Talk for All - Nonsense for None
Please check out our other podcasts:
https://skepticsguidetoinvesting.buzzsprout.com
Disclaimer - These podcasts are not intended as investment advice. Individuals please consult your own investment, tax and legal advisors. They provide these insights for educational purposes only.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Steve Davenport (00:26):
Hello, everyone, and welcome to
Skeptic's Guide to Investing.
I'm Steve Davenport, and I'mhere with Clem Miller.
And we're talking about trust.
We're looking at what'shappening with the government
shutdown ending and the datathat everybody is waiting for
with bated breath.
And I sit here and I think,okay, should we have more data?
(00:52):
And is data gonna necessarilymake our lives better because we
trust it and we believe itinfluences the macroeconomic and
the business results?
Or does we trust patience andjust wait and say these are
long-term investments andlooking at monthly inventory
(01:14):
data or looking at monthlydata on employment and whether
this many teachers were laid offfor the holidays or this many
people were hired at Amazon towork in the warehouse during the
busy time of Black Friday?
I would say, Clem, that thisis a tough topic because
(01:38):
different people have differenthot points on which two things
they think they trust and whichtwo things they distrust.
Let's start in the positive andthen we'll end in the the
negative.
, which two things do youtrust the most in the financial
system?
That is it the data, is it theCEOs and the people?
(02:00):
Is it the companies'technology?
Is it the government assertingand helping companies with
ownership stakes?
Is it the you know the tariffprocess that's gonna right the
wrongs against America?
Where is your trust?
What two items do you have themost faith in that are in the
(02:22):
financial system that are gonnahelp our average investor you
know improve their financialwellness?
Where's your trust right now?
Clem Miller (02:32):
So I've got two areas of trust.
one is in innovation.
I'm a strong believer ininnovation, technological
innovation.
I believe that this is an areawhere you cannot take a beta
approach, , but you have to takean alpha approach and pick
(02:56):
individual companies.
Because certainly there areindividual companies that are in
in innovative, but yet have notbeen performing too well.
So you have to you have tochoose your areas of innovation,
choose the individualcompanies.
But I'm very, very trustfulof the innovation process, AI
(03:19):
and other things and where thatmight be going.
Are there issues we should beconcerned about with AI?
Yes, there are.
but and are there areas ofof where we might want to
distrust AI?
Certainly there are.
We can at some point zero in onthose.
(03:40):
But I think in general,innovation is a very big
positive.
Second area of of trust isyou know, when you're talking
about portfolio construction,you know, you got innovation on
one side.
This is in my portfolio,innovation on one side.
On the other side, I have cashand gold.
(04:03):
And cash and gold, , I do trustin.
And I trust in those because,first of all, if there is a
market downturn, my mydownturn will be lower than
those of other investors.
So that's one way I I I trustthat.
(04:23):
And then the second way I trustthat is that if there is a
market downturn, I I will havethe resources to be able to buy
cheap and ride the ride theuphill.
So I have some faith in that.
It's all a matter of you knowwhat, you know, what do you, you
know, how what the proportionsare of of what you put into
(04:47):
the innovation and whatproportions you put into the
cash and gold.
So those are my two areas oftrust, Steve.
Steve Davenport (04:54):
Okay.
They seem like they're verysimilar.
Like on the on the one sideyou got innovation, which is
your 50 or 60 percent of theportfolio that you're invested
in long term, and then the otherside is in safety, which I
think that growth and safety arealways the two things that
we're playing off of each other.
And if we believe more in onethan the other, then we let our
(05:18):
money go where our you knowfeelings are.
Clem Miller (05:21):
Yeah, and note that we I don't have bonds in there.
Steve Davenport (05:24):
I know you don't have bonds.
I realize that you're you'reyou've been pretty clear of what
you like and what you don'tlike.
, I guess from myperspective, the things I
trust and I believe in, andmaybe this is because I have two
daughters who are professors,but I think our college system
in the United States is anextraordinary collection of
(05:48):
assets for all people in allthese states.
I'm in North Carolina nowwith one of the best state-run
college systems, and I look atUNC Asheville, UNC Charlotte, I
look at NC State and UNC andChapel Hill and UNC Wilmington,
and I know I'm leaving somebodyout, but I just look at this
(06:11):
system and this state, and thenI think about the private
universities like the Dukes andthe Davidson's, and I look and
say, you know, we have acollection of faculties and
people who are doing amazingwork in areas of AI and areas of
health and and wellness andareas of aging.
(06:33):
And I just think that, youknow, for when you talk about
innovation, I'm being a littlemore specific.
I think corporate innovation isone thing, but a system that
keeps preparing more and morepeople every year to come out
into the marketplace, have animpact, have skill sets that
line up to businesses, and havean ability to do something new
(06:58):
and creative.
And I look at what is going onat NVIDIA and the way that they
have taken the nanometer chipsand the the things and tried to
you know put them in paralleland make things faster and make
things better.
And I I do think there is acorporate, you know, part of
(07:18):
that responsibility, but I Ikind of go back to where are the
people learning the skills,where are the people getting the
abilities, and where are thepeople who are starting the next
companies?
They're coming out of some ofthe greatest colleges in the
world.
And I, you know, maybe I'm I'mmissing something.
(07:38):
I I've had my time as a Col biagrad where I've been frustrated
by what's going on in thecampus and the different things,
and we can focus on thenegative, but I have a great
deal of trust that our educationsystem, because of the
endowments and because of theway they work, , are going to
(08:00):
continue to produce great peoplewho are going to be great
leaders and are help ourbusiness community.
And if you want to know why Ilike America and America
investment, it's the colleges.
And I don't want to stealsomething from one of the
Clinton's strategists there,Carville, but it's the it's the
(08:24):
university stupid.
he used to say it's theeconomy stupid, but I I really
believe in the universities, andI also one thing I trust is
that there's a lot of people outthere who are being kind to
others.
I'm involved in variousvolunteer efforts and and
(08:46):
things, and I would just saythat I see a lot of great people
doing great things for others,and I think at this time of
year, it's you know, we seepeople who are eating at the
food shelters and getting foodsfor, you know, taking home a bag
of stuff to to have a a mealand celebrate.
I I really believe there's alot of inherent kindness in
(09:12):
mankind, particularly in theUnited States.
And I look at the people whoare arguing and the people who
are attacking each other, and Isay, you know, I think that the
media might cover that a littlemore than it covers, you know,
the acts of kindness by a lot ofpeople.
And I am gonna be idealistichere and say, , the thing I
(09:36):
trust is the American will tosurvive and to thrive and to
help others.
So American will anduniversities would be my two
things I trust in.
, and I trust in them prettydeeply, so I don't think I'm
gonna get shaken from those.
But now we go to the two thingsthat we distrust about the
(10:01):
system and the financials.
, what are the two things youdistrust in Clem?
Is it is it anything to do withgovernment data, or is it have
to do with our ability tocollect tariffs, or how how how
what do you distrust about thismarket or environment for the
(10:23):
average investor to think aboutthis?
Clem Miller (10:25):
Okay, so I've got two totally different areas of
distrust.
So, first of all, is mystandard distrust of fads in
markets.
Steve Davenport (10:38):
Okay, and different than themes?
Or is it the same thing?
Clem Miller (10:42):
Well, yeah, I mean, others might call them themes.
I call them fads, right?
Okay, so crypto is a fad thatis extremely dangerous, and you
can see that you know, over thelast few weeks of of or few
months of behavior with regardto Bitcoin and and other crypto
and companies that you know haveinvested in crypto.
(11:07):
and so I know you knowevery time crypto starts to go
up a little bit, all thepromoters come out of the
woodwork.
and then when crypto goesdown a little bit, they they go
and hide back in the woodwork.
yeah, I mean, I think thefunny thing is that when the
people say no, it's it's it's ait's a currency.
(11:29):
Oh, okay.
well, as a currency, why didthe currency go down when
technology stocks started to godown?
I thought the currencies were alittle more independent.
And it's tell me, is it acurrency or is it a it's
whatever it's whatever thepromoters want it to be, is what
they tell people, right?
It's whatever works, it's whatever falls into
(11:52):
their story or supports theirstory, whether it's quote a
currency or a commodity or anasset or whatever they want to
call it.
the reality is that it'snone of those things.
it's a fad.
And , and so you know, if youwant to waste your money on
fads, be by all means go dothat.
(12:13):
but you know, I'm I it'ssomething that I've I've long
distrusted.
I'm consistent on that.
And I would never put one pennyof of anything I I wouldn't
put one penny of my own money inin crypto.
Not one penny of crypto.
How about your wife's money?
(12:34):
Would you put her money in it?
No, I wouldn't I wouldn't putput her money in that either.
But like I said, you know, Ican't tell people what to do.
So if you know, and I know thatthere are advisors and others
out there who say, well, hold alittle bit of crypto.
Why?
Okay.
Why?
Right?
You know, it's just it's it'sit's ridiculous, right?
(12:58):
So the other thing I distrustis I distrust government.
And all government or only theUS government, or , I think it's
fair to distrust all governmentand in particular the US
government, and at this point,and and and you know, I would
(13:22):
have to, you know, to be fair,I would also throw in the
Russian government and theChinese government and the
Korean government and theIranian government and the
Israeli government.
, I think you know, roguestates, okay.
I have some issues with withrogue states.
Well, you just mentioned threeor four of them.
Steve Davenport (13:41):
What do you who else are you talking about?
well, I guess you could putVenezuela in the rogue state
category, too.
All right.
But yeah, I mean, , you know,arguably the U.S.
is, but then Russia, China,Iran, Venezuela, Israel, , North
Korea.
, you know, those are the ,you know, those are what I would
(14:04):
call rogue.
I saw an article this week about, you
know, some kind of a deal goingon with Zelensky and whether
he's you know involved in somekind of a scandal.
Clem Miller (14:15):
Yeah, well, yeah, Ukraine has been known for
corruption, but I don't knowthat I don't know that it's
actually touched them, but I'mnot really talking about
corruption.
Corruption is a widespreadissue in lots of countries.
I'm really talking aboutbehavior in the international
system, right?
Whether you know, countries arejust pursuing their own
(14:39):
narrow their own narrow goalswithout any consideration for
their for their neighbors orthe broader international
community, or whether they'reyou know, whether they're
willing to cooperate.
And those rogue states I justmentioned are clearly looking
out for themselves and notcooperating with the with the
(15:02):
global community.
And unfortunately, the US hasentered that that that group of
you know come that group ofcountries, and and and that's
why I think it's fair not tonot to trust the US as much as
as one could before.
And I think as far as you know,this has you know, as I'm as
(15:24):
I've indicated elsewhere, Ithink that markets have done
extraordinarily well despite ofUS government policies, not
because of them, right?
I mean, I don't, you know, acountry whose government can
impose enormous tariffs and saythat you know, say that they're
(15:49):
because of some kind of tradebalance emergency, and say that
foreign countries are paying thetariffs, I mean that's wacko
stuff, right?
it's it's not classiceconomics.
It has no basis in reality.
And and if you're talking abouta government that makes
decisions without a basis inreality, that's a problem.
(16:12):
Right?
That's a problem.
and so that's you know, ifwe didn't have that kind of
problem, that kind of reality,you know, the possibility of
decisions being made on thefringes of reality or beyond
what's what is reality, I thinkif that weren't an issue, I
(16:33):
probably wouldn't have as muchcash and gold in the portfolio
as I do now.
but I feel like I have tobecause of you know these policy
issues and and you know therest is sort of AI kind of
related, and I think AI is gonnado innovation is gonna do I
(16:55):
mean it may be overvalued rightnow and it may have a pullback,
but I think it's going to dowell regardless of what of what
government does.
Okay.
So what's item n ber two?
I gave you two.
Oh, okay.
N ber one was was fads.
Fads, okay.
(17:16):
Yeah, fads, crypto and andand I I would I would put you
know also into fads potentiallyyou know certain elements of
private markets now.
So private credit has beenhaving some issues lately.
And I know that private credithas been like the darling of a
(17:39):
lot of a lot of investors, alot of advisors.
People read a lot about privatecredit, but there have been
some issues with that, with thatlately, with BlackRock and and
and so on.
So it's a it's an issue, right?
private credit.
And so I don't know that Iwould be advising anybody right
(18:01):
now to get into any kind ofprivate credit vehicle.
I think it's you know, II'm a public markets kind of
guy, right?
I like public markets.
I think there's like yourliquidity.
There's liquidity, there'svisibility.
you know, this this kind ofacademic, it's really an
(18:41):
academic thought that if yougive up liquidity, you get
return.
I mean, just think about thatlogically.
Why is that?
I mean, what's logical aboutthat?
There's no there's no guaranteethat by giving up liquidity
you're going to get higherreturn.
Steve Davenport (18:59):
I think I think when they say giving up
liquidity, , they're asking youto be patient and have a longer
time horizon.
Right.
And I would say that the timehorizon determines a lot of the
private success, not the lack ofliquidity.
Right.
Time horizon to me is theanswer, not liquidity.
Clem Miller (19:18):
Okay, so yeah, I agree with you, but think about
this a little bit.
You know, a longer time horizonmeans that there's a greater
there, yes, there's a longerlonger term possibility that
there will be success.
But there's a longer termpossibility there could be
(19:39):
failure too, and yet you'relocked in.
Steve Davenport (19:42):
So I I just I just I think that I think
there's two different pointsyou're making.
One one is I I don't have fullclarity.
So without full clarity on theunderlying company, because
privates are necessarily lessknown, that un unknowable aspect
(20:02):
makes it risky.
And that's that's true of youknow, if hey, all of these
companies release data, but youknow, public companies who have
things going on that are notpresent in their data, they have
the same risk as that private.
It's just that you know what Imean.
They're they they've been ableto keep this research project
(20:25):
they've been doing, and it'sbeen successful or not
successful.
I mean, there's things goingon, and I think it's do we have
full knowledge?
And I don't think we have fullknowledge even of the most
public company.
, I think it if I could goto my two, the thing that I
(20:47):
find and distrust the most isquick judgments and decisions.
I think the averageconcentration of investors
today, I think is somethingaround nine seconds that we
focus on an idea for about nineseconds.
It was 16 seconds just a coupleof years ago.
(21:08):
It's been as high as 30, youknow, five years ago.
I I look at this and I thinkthis is what I believe will be
the most disturbing part of AIand all of this information is
if we react and think aboutitems for shorter periods of
time, we're gonna be less likelyto discern a difference or a
(21:30):
mistake by AI in the process ofhelping us.
And if they make obviousdecisions wrong and make
statements that are incorrect, ,we have to pull back and say,
okay, I thought this was, youknow, taken care of, and I
thought this had this type ofability.
But you know, I I reallydistrust what I would call
(21:55):
quickness.
If the quickness of a decision,and we say that it's a really
good decision, comes through.
I kind of believe that thatspeed isn't the answer when we
look at how we should invest.
I think you should take sometime.
I think you should sleep on it.
If you should sleep on whetherto spy a $500 TV, what should
(22:20):
you do with a $2,000 investmentin, you know, your child's
college account?
I think you should think about.
I think that you should thinkabout what you want and what
you're trying to achieve, andthen apply what I would call
some rigor and analysis that'sgreater than the standard.
(22:41):
I distrust short-term thinkingbecause I believe that it misses
the boat.
I believe that as a country, asa civilization, as a society,
we need to think a little harderand a little longer in order to
truly get to what I think isyou know a better world.
(23:03):
And that's just me.
that's where I am.
and I guess I would also saythat as a whole, I distrust
people's decisions in terms ofhow you make and decide on what
(23:24):
things are important in yourlife.
I think that individuals needto put their physical, mental,
and spiritual well-being first,not second.
I I think that you talked aboutit.
I did the same thing when I wasworking.
I was trying to get into thatseat early.
I was trying to get to mycomputer so I could check the
(23:48):
news, check how things wereopening in Europe, and look at,
and I was just absorbed withbeing fully absorbed.
I wasn't really taking care of,you know, what I'd say is body,
mind, and soul.
And I think that the thing Idistrust is that we as a society
don't do a good enough job oftaking care of the greatest
(24:10):
asset we have, which is our h ancapital.
And that h an capital can doamazing things for you.
But just like the car, you gotto change the oil, you got to
make sure it's running right,you got to make sure it has good
tires.
I think there's a a realrenewal that we need to do as
(24:32):
part of this.
Coming out of COVID, myrealization was I needed to
focus on some basic things likeexercise, better diet, better,
you know, time for meditationand prayer.
So those things matter to me.
And I think for everyone, yourfinancial health and wealth is
(24:53):
one part of your overallbalance sheet.
The main part is your youryour h an capital.
So in terms of distrust, Idistrust short-term thinking,
and I distrust that we are notputting ourselves first.
(25:14):
So those of mine, I don't knowif they fully captured what we
distrust in markets.
I guess I would say that when Ithink about the second part
about wellness, , I want theoverall goal of everyone to be
how do we make lives andinfluence things that are
(25:36):
better.
And I'd love to see companiesdoing more to try to help people
with this wellness goal.
And if they were, I think itwould really have a bigger
impact because I think people,when when they have more balance
in their life, I think they'rebetter employees and ultimately
better for the overall economy.
So if I could, you know, sayone thing.
(26:00):
I think that getting back inthe office to me, I understand
communication, but I also thinkthat part of that is that people
have gotten used to a healthierlifestyle at home doing things
and pushing them back into theoffice is gonna not enhance that
wellness.
I think it will degrade it.
(26:21):
So I hope that we as companiesrealize that okay, if we're
gonna want people in the office,then maybe we need to do
something to allow them to havethe same flexibility and some of
the things that they have toimprove the quality of their
life because ultimately betteremployees, better community,
better results for everyone.
(26:41):
So anything else you want tosay about trust?
Clem Miller (26:46):
No, I think I've I think I've covered it.
, I agree with you aboutwellness, and I think it's
very important to to focus onyourself with the wellness.
Steve Davenport (27:01):
All right, everybody.
Thanks for listening, and thiswill probably come out sometime
close to Thanksgiving.
So have a great Thanksgivingand please like, share, and let
other people know that youenjoy the podcast.
And we look forward to servingyou.
And check out the survey thatis under Clem's LinkedIn account
(27:22):
and let us know what it is wedo that you like and what you
wanted us to do more of.
All right.
So everybody, thanks.
Have a great day.
We appreciate you.
Hello, everyone, and welcome to
Skeptic's Guide to Investing.
I'm Steve Davenport, and I'mhere with Clem Miller.
And we're talking about trust.
We're looking at what'shappening with the government
shutdown ending and the datathat everybody is waiting for
with bated breath.
And I sit here and I think,okay, should we have more data?
(00:52):
And is data gonna necessarilymake our lives better because we
trust it and we believe itinfluences the macroeconomic and
the business results?
Or does we trust patience andjust wait and say these are
long-term investments andlooking at monthly inventory
(01:14):
data or looking at monthlydata on employment and whether
this many teachers were laid offfor the holidays or this many
people were hired at Amazon towork in the warehouse during the
busy time of Black Friday?
I would say, Clem, that thisis a tough topic because
(01:38):
different people have differenthot points on which two things
they think they trust and whichtwo things they distrust.
Let's start in the positive andthen we'll end in the the
negative.
, which two things do youtrust the most in the financial
system?
That is it the data, is it theCEOs and the people?
(02:00):
Is it the companies'technology?
Is it the government assertingand helping companies with
ownership stakes?
Is it the you know the tariffprocess that's gonna right the
wrongs against America?
Where is your trust?
What two items do you have themost faith in that are in the
(02:22):
financial system that are gonnahelp our average investor you
know improve their financialwellness?
Where's your trust right now?
Clem Miller (02:32):
So I've got two areas of trust.
one is in innovation.
I'm a strong believer ininnovation, technological
innovation.
I believe that this is an areawhere you cannot take a beta
approach, , but you have to takean alpha approach and pick
(02:56):
individual companies.
Because certainly there areindividual companies that are in
in innovative, but yet have notbeen performing too well.
So you have to you have tochoose your areas of innovation,
choose the individualcompanies.
But I'm very, very trustfulof the innovation process, AI
(03:19):
and other things and where thatmight be going.
Are there issues we should beconcerned about with AI?
Yes, there are.
but and are there areas ofof where we might want to
distrust AI?
Certainly there are.
We can at some point zero in onthose.
(03:40):
But I think in general,innovation is a very big
positive.
Second area of of trust isyou know, when you're talking
about portfolio construction,you know, you got innovation on
one side.
This is in my portfolio,innovation on one side.
On the other side, I have cashand gold.
(04:03):
And cash and gold, , I do trustin.
And I trust in those because,first of all, if there is a
market downturn, my mydownturn will be lower than
those of other investors.
So that's one way I I I trustthat.
(04:23):
And then the second way I trustthat is that if there is a
market downturn, I I will havethe resources to be able to buy
cheap and ride the ride theuphill.
So I have some faith in that.
It's all a matter of you knowwhat, you know, what do you, you
know, how what the proportionsare of of what you put into
(04:47):
the innovation and whatproportions you put into the
cash and gold.
So those are my two areas oftrust, Steve.
Steve Davenport (04:54):
Okay.
They seem like they're verysimilar.
Like on the on the one sideyou got innovation, which is
your 50 or 60 percent of theportfolio that you're invested
in long term, and then the otherside is in safety, which I
think that growth and safety arealways the two things that
we're playing off of each other.
And if we believe more in onethan the other, then we let our
(05:18):
money go where our you knowfeelings are.
Clem Miller (05:21):
Yeah, and note that we I don't have bonds in there.
Steve Davenport (05:24):
I know you don't have bonds.
I realize that you're you'reyou've been pretty clear of what
you like and what you don'tlike.
, I guess from myperspective, the things I
trust and I believe in, andmaybe this is because I have two
daughters who are professors,but I think our college system
in the United States is anextraordinary collection of
(05:48):
assets for all people in allthese states.
I'm in North Carolina nowwith one of the best state-run
college systems, and I look atUNC Asheville, UNC Charlotte, I
look at NC State and UNC andChapel Hill and UNC Wilmington,
and I know I'm leaving somebodyout, but I just look at this
(06:11):
system and this state, and thenI think about the private
universities like the Dukes andthe Davidson's, and I look and
say, you know, we have acollection of faculties and
people who are doing amazingwork in areas of AI and areas of
health and and wellness andareas of aging.
(06:33):
And I just think that, youknow, for when you talk about
innovation, I'm being a littlemore specific.
I think corporate innovation isone thing, but a system that
keeps preparing more and morepeople every year to come out
into the marketplace, have animpact, have skill sets that
line up to businesses, and havean ability to do something new
(06:58):
and creative.
And I look at what is going onat NVIDIA and the way that they
have taken the nanometer chipsand the the things and tried to
you know put them in paralleland make things faster and make
things better.
And I I do think there is acorporate, you know, part of
(07:18):
that responsibility, but I Ikind of go back to where are the
people learning the skills,where are the people getting the
abilities, and where are thepeople who are starting the next
companies?
They're coming out of some ofthe greatest colleges in the
world.
And I, you know, maybe I'm I'mmissing something.
(07:38):
I I've had my time as a Col biagrad where I've been frustrated
by what's going on in thecampus and the different things,
and we can focus on thenegative, but I have a great
deal of trust that our educationsystem, because of the
endowments and because of theway they work, , are going to
(08:00):
continue to produce great peoplewho are going to be great
leaders and are help ourbusiness community.
And if you want to know why Ilike America and America
investment, it's the colleges.
And I don't want to stealsomething from one of the
Clinton's strategists there,Carville, but it's the it's the
(08:24):
university stupid.
he used to say it's theeconomy stupid, but I I really
believe in the universities, andI also one thing I trust is
that there's a lot of people outthere who are being kind to
others.
I'm involved in variousvolunteer efforts and and
(08:46):
things, and I would just saythat I see a lot of great people
doing great things for others,and I think at this time of
year, it's you know, we seepeople who are eating at the
food shelters and getting foodsfor, you know, taking home a bag
of stuff to to have a a mealand celebrate.
I I really believe there's alot of inherent kindness in
(09:12):
mankind, particularly in theUnited States.
And I look at the people whoare arguing and the people who
are attacking each other, and Isay, you know, I think that the
media might cover that a littlemore than it covers, you know,
the acts of kindness by a lot ofpeople.
And I am gonna be idealistichere and say, , the thing I
(09:36):
trust is the American will tosurvive and to thrive and to
help others.
So American will anduniversities would be my two
things I trust in.
, and I trust in them prettydeeply, so I don't think I'm
gonna get shaken from those.
But now we go to the two thingsthat we distrust about the
(10:01):
system and the financials.
, what are the two things youdistrust in Clem?
Is it is it anything to do withgovernment data, or is it have
to do with our ability tocollect tariffs, or how how how
what do you distrust about thismarket or environment for the
(10:23):
average investor to think aboutthis?
Clem Miller (10:25):
Okay, so I've got two totally different areas of
distrust.
So, first of all, is mystandard distrust of fads in
markets.
Steve Davenport (10:38):
Okay, and different than themes?
Or is it the same thing?
Clem Miller (10:42):
Well, yeah, I mean, others might call them themes.
I call them fads, right?
Okay, so crypto is a fad thatis extremely dangerous, and you
can see that you know, over thelast few weeks of of or few
months of behavior with regardto Bitcoin and and other crypto
and companies that you know haveinvested in crypto.
(11:07):
and so I know you knowevery time crypto starts to go
up a little bit, all thepromoters come out of the
woodwork.
and then when crypto goesdown a little bit, they they go
and hide back in the woodwork.
yeah, I mean, I think thefunny thing is that when the
people say no, it's it's it's ait's a currency.
(11:29):
Oh, okay.
well, as a currency, why didthe currency go down when
technology stocks started to godown?
I thought the currencies were alittle more independent.
And it's tell me, is it acurrency or is it a it's
whatever it's whatever thepromoters want it to be, is what
they tell people, right?
It's whatever works, it's whatever falls into
(11:52):
their story or supports theirstory, whether it's quote a
currency or a commodity or anasset or whatever they want to
call it.
the reality is that it'snone of those things.
it's a fad.
And , and so you know, if youwant to waste your money on
fads, be by all means go dothat.
(12:13):
but you know, I'm I it'ssomething that I've I've long
distrusted.
I'm consistent on that.
And I would never put one pennyof of anything I I wouldn't
put one penny of my own money inin crypto.
Not one penny of crypto.
How about your wife's money?
(12:34):
Would you put her money in it?
No, I wouldn't I wouldn't putput her money in that either.
But like I said, you know, Ican't tell people what to do.
So if you know, and I know thatthere are advisors and others
out there who say, well, hold alittle bit of crypto.
Why?
Okay.
Why?
Right?
You know, it's just it's it'sit's ridiculous, right?
(12:58):
So the other thing I distrustis I distrust government.
And all government or only theUS government, or , I think it's
fair to distrust all governmentand in particular the US
government, and at this point,and and and you know, I would
(13:22):
have to, you know, to be fair,I would also throw in the
Russian government and theChinese government and the
Korean government and theIranian government and the
Israeli government.
, I think you know, roguestates, okay.
I have some issues with withrogue states.
Well, you just mentioned threeor four of them.
Steve Davenport (13:41):
What do you who else are you talking about?
well, I guess you could putVenezuela in the rogue state
category, too.
All right.
But yeah, I mean, , you know,arguably the U.S.
is, but then Russia, China,Iran, Venezuela, Israel, , North
Korea.
, you know, those are the ,you know, those are what I would
(14:04):
call rogue.
I saw an article this week about, you
know, some kind of a deal goingon with Zelensky and whether
he's you know involved in somekind of a scandal.
Clem Miller (14:15):
Yeah, well, yeah, Ukraine has been known for
corruption, but I don't knowthat I don't know that it's
actually touched them, but I'mnot really talking about
corruption.
Corruption is a widespreadissue in lots of countries.
I'm really talking aboutbehavior in the international
system, right?
Whether you know, countries arejust pursuing their own
(14:39):
narrow their own narrow goalswithout any consideration for
their for their neighbors orthe broader international
community, or whether they'reyou know, whether they're
willing to cooperate.
And those rogue states I justmentioned are clearly looking
out for themselves and notcooperating with the with the
(15:02):
global community.
And unfortunately, the US hasentered that that that group of
you know come that group ofcountries, and and and that's
why I think it's fair not tonot to trust the US as much as
as one could before.
And I think as far as you know,this has you know, as I'm as
(15:24):
I've indicated elsewhere, Ithink that markets have done
extraordinarily well despite ofUS government policies, not
because of them, right?
I mean, I don't, you know, acountry whose government can
impose enormous tariffs and saythat you know, say that they're
(15:49):
because of some kind of tradebalance emergency, and say that
foreign countries are paying thetariffs, I mean that's wacko
stuff, right?
it's it's not classiceconomics.
It has no basis in reality.
And and if you're talking abouta government that makes
decisions without a basis inreality, that's a problem.
(16:12):
Right?
That's a problem.
and so that's you know, ifwe didn't have that kind of
problem, that kind of reality,you know, the possibility of
decisions being made on thefringes of reality or beyond
what's what is reality, I thinkif that weren't an issue, I
(16:33):
probably wouldn't have as muchcash and gold in the portfolio
as I do now.
but I feel like I have tobecause of you know these policy
issues and and you know therest is sort of AI kind of
related, and I think AI is gonnado innovation is gonna do I
(16:55):
mean it may be overvalued rightnow and it may have a pullback,
but I think it's going to dowell regardless of what of what
government does.
Okay.
So what's item n ber two?
I gave you two.
Oh, okay.
N ber one was was fads.
Fads, okay.
(17:16):
Yeah, fads, crypto and andand I I would I would put you
know also into fads potentiallyyou know certain elements of
private markets now.
So private credit has beenhaving some issues lately.
And I know that private credithas been like the darling of a
(17:39):
lot of a lot of investors, alot of advisors.
People read a lot about privatecredit, but there have been
some issues with that, with thatlately, with BlackRock and and
and so on.
So it's a it's an issue, right?
private credit.
And so I don't know that Iwould be advising anybody right
(18:01):
now to get into any kind ofprivate credit vehicle.
I think it's you know, II'm a public markets kind of
guy, right?
I like public markets.
I think there's like yourliquidity.
There's liquidity, there'svisibility.
you know, this this kind ofacademic, it's really an
(18:41):
academic thought that if yougive up liquidity, you get
return.
I mean, just think about thatlogically.
Why is that?
I mean, what's logical aboutthat?
There's no there's no guaranteethat by giving up liquidity
you're going to get higherreturn.
Steve Davenport (18:59):
I think I think when they say giving up
liquidity, , they're asking youto be patient and have a longer
time horizon.
Right.
And I would say that the timehorizon determines a lot of the
private success, not the lack ofliquidity.
Right.
Time horizon to me is theanswer, not liquidity.
Clem Miller (19:18):
Okay, so yeah, I agree with you, but think about
this a little bit.
You know, a longer time horizonmeans that there's a greater
there, yes, there's a longerlonger term possibility that
there will be success.
But there's a longer termpossibility there could be
(19:39):
failure too, and yet you'relocked in.
Steve Davenport (19:42):
So I I just I just I think that I think
there's two different pointsyou're making.
One one is I I don't have fullclarity.
So without full clarity on theunderlying company, because
privates are necessarily lessknown, that un unknowable aspect
(20:02):
makes it risky.
And that's that's true of youknow, if hey, all of these
companies release data, but youknow, public companies who have
things going on that are notpresent in their data, they have
the same risk as that private.
It's just that you know what Imean.
They're they they've been ableto keep this research project
(20:25):
they've been doing, and it'sbeen successful or not
successful.
I mean, there's things goingon, and I think it's do we have
full knowledge?
And I don't think we have fullknowledge even of the most
public company.
, I think it if I could goto my two, the thing that I
(20:47):
find and distrust the most isquick judgments and decisions.
I think the averageconcentration of investors
today, I think is somethingaround nine seconds that we
focus on an idea for about nineseconds.
It was 16 seconds just a coupleof years ago.
(21:08):
It's been as high as 30, youknow, five years ago.
I I look at this and I thinkthis is what I believe will be
the most disturbing part of AIand all of this information is
if we react and think aboutitems for shorter periods of
time, we're gonna be less likelyto discern a difference or a
(21:30):
mistake by AI in the process ofhelping us.
And if they make obviousdecisions wrong and make
statements that are incorrect, ,we have to pull back and say,
okay, I thought this was, youknow, taken care of, and I
thought this had this type ofability.
But you know, I I reallydistrust what I would call
(21:55):
quickness.
If the quickness of a decision,and we say that it's a really
good decision, comes through.
I kind of believe that thatspeed isn't the answer when we
look at how we should invest.
I think you should take sometime.
I think you should sleep on it.
If you should sleep on whetherto spy a $500 TV, what should
(22:20):
you do with a $2,000 investmentin, you know, your child's
college account?
I think you should think about.
I think that you should thinkabout what you want and what
you're trying to achieve, andthen apply what I would call
some rigor and analysis that'sgreater than the standard.
(22:41):
I distrust short-term thinkingbecause I believe that it misses
the boat.
I believe that as a country, asa civilization, as a society,
we need to think a little harderand a little longer in order to
truly get to what I think isyou know a better world.
(23:03):
And that's just me.
that's where I am.
and I guess I would also saythat as a whole, I distrust
people's decisions in terms ofhow you make and decide on what
(23:24):
things are important in yourlife.
I think that individuals needto put their physical, mental,
and spiritual well-being first,not second.
I I think that you talked aboutit.
I did the same thing when I wasworking.
I was trying to get into thatseat early.
I was trying to get to mycomputer so I could check the
(23:48):
news, check how things wereopening in Europe, and look at,
and I was just absorbed withbeing fully absorbed.
I wasn't really taking care of,you know, what I'd say is body,
mind, and soul.
And I think that the thing Idistrust is that we as a society
don't do a good enough job oftaking care of the greatest
(24:10):
asset we have, which is our h ancapital.
And that h an capital can doamazing things for you.
But just like the car, you gotto change the oil, you got to
make sure it's running right,you got to make sure it has good
tires.
I think there's a a realrenewal that we need to do as
(24:32):
part of this.
Coming out of COVID, myrealization was I needed to
focus on some basic things likeexercise, better diet, better,
you know, time for meditationand prayer.
So those things matter to me.
And I think for everyone, yourfinancial health and wealth is
(24:53):
one part of your overallbalance sheet.
The main part is your youryour h an capital.
So in terms of distrust, Idistrust short-term thinking,
and I distrust that we are notputting ourselves first.
(25:14):
So those of mine, I don't knowif they fully captured what we
distrust in markets.
I guess I would say that when Ithink about the second part
about wellness, , I want theoverall goal of everyone to be
how do we make lives andinfluence things that are
(25:36):
better.
And I'd love to see companiesdoing more to try to help people
with this wellness goal.
And if they were, I think itwould really have a bigger
impact because I think people,when when they have more balance
in their life, I think they'rebetter employees and ultimately
better for the overall economy.
So if I could, you know, sayone thing.
(26:00):
I think that getting back inthe office to me, I understand
communication, but I also thinkthat part of that is that people
have gotten used to a healthierlifestyle at home doing things
and pushing them back into theoffice is gonna not enhance that
wellness.
I think it will degrade it.
(26:21):
So I hope that we as companiesrealize that okay, if we're
gonna want people in the office,then maybe we need to do
something to allow them to havethe same flexibility and some of
the things that they have toimprove the quality of their
life because ultimately betteremployees, better community,
better results for everyone.
(26:41):
So anything else you want tosay about trust?
Clem Miller (26:46):
No, I think I've I think I've covered it.
, I agree with you aboutwellness, and I think it's
very important to to focus onyourself with the wellness.
Steve Davenport (27:01):
All right, everybody.
Thanks for listening, and thiswill probably come out sometime
close to Thanksgiving.
So have a great Thanksgivingand please like, share, and let
other people know that youenjoy the podcast.
And we look forward to servingyou.
And check out the survey thatis under Clem's LinkedIn account
(27:22):
and let us know what it is wedo that you like and what you
wanted us to do more of.
All right.
So everybody, thanks.
Have a great day.
We appreciate you.
Popular Podcasts
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
Las Culturistas with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang
Ding dong! Join your culture consultants, Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang, on an unforgettable journey into the beating heart of CULTURE. Alongside sizzling special guests, they GET INTO the hottest pop-culture moments of the day and the formative cultural experiences that turned them into Culturistas. Produced by the Big Money Players Network and iHeartRadio.
Crime Junkie
Does hearing about a true crime case always leave you scouring the internet for the truth behind the story? Dive into your next mystery with Crime Junkie. Every Monday, join your host Ashley Flowers as she unravels all the details of infamous and underreported true crime cases with her best friend Brit Prawat. From cold cases to missing persons and heroes in our community who seek justice, Crime Junkie is your destination for theories and stories you won’t hear anywhere else. Whether you're a seasoned true crime enthusiast or new to the genre, you'll find yourself on the edge of your seat awaiting a new episode every Monday. If you can never get enough true crime... Congratulations, you’ve found your people. Follow to join a community of Crime Junkies! Crime Junkie is presented by audiochuck Media Company.