Special Briefing on the Muni Debt Boom: Record Borrowing Amid Budget Strains

William Glasgall, Penn IUR Fellow and Volcker Alliance Public Finance Adviser, Susan Wachter, Co-Director of Penn IUR and Wharton professor, and our expert panel address the record-shattering boom in state and local borrowing even in the face of federal spending cuts and pressure on budgets. How long the boom will continue in the face of conflicting federal, state, and local priorities will be the big question for investors and governments over the coming year. Panelists include: • Matt Fabian, President, Municipal Market Analytics • Fitzroy Lee, Deputy Chief Financial Officer and Chief Economist, Office of the Chief Financial Officer (OCFO) • Vikram Rai, Portfolio Manager and Macro Trader, First New York and former Head of Municipal Markets Strategy at Wells Fargo • Sheila Weinberg, Founder and CEO, Truth in Accounting and • Mark Zandi, Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics. NOTABLE QUOTES Notable Quotes -Mark Zandi: “This is the first time I can recall where all those indicators are screaming, we’ve got a problem.” -Matt Fabian: “The Muni market has a chance to be part of the solution to make it not as bad as it might otherwise be.” -Sheila Weinberg: “The strength in the bond market is impressive but potentially misleading…this heightens the risk to investors and to taxpayers.” -Vikram Rai: “I never really believed the Fed was independent. I think there is an element of politics that goes on there… Once the President has control of the Fed, they can maneuver the yield curve.” -Fitzroy Lee: “The downsizing would cost the District about $300 million in revenue losses per year, about 3% of our own source revenue.” -Mark Zandi: “For every percentage point increase in the effective tariff rate, it adds about 10 basis points to inflation…and reduces GDP by 7-8 basis points.” -Matt Fabian: “On the demand side, the Muni market has been functioning fantastically…So long as nominal yields are high enough, individuals will continue to buy the bond.”