April 17, 2026 • 49 mins
Freight rates can jump 20 to 40 cents a mile in just a couple of weeks—and still have nothing to do with “more freight.” That’s the puzzle we break down with DAT’s Dean Croke, who brings a mix of data, economics, and real-world trucking experience to explain why the market feels so unpredictable right now.
We start with the big picture: a freight market near the bottom of its cycle, soft demand, and capacity slowly exiting—helping create a floor under dry van and reefer rates. Dean breaks down spot vs. contract rates and how weather tightens capacity by slowing the network, not adding freight. If you’ve chased hot lanes but still had a weak week, this connects volatility to real miles and revenue.
Then we go regional and seasonal—produce season in the South and Florida, reefer swings around holidays, and how enforcement and paperwork risks affect where drivers run. We also cover flatbed strength from construction and AI data centers, plus what to watch as produce shifts to California and ports rebound. On policy, we hit tariffs, bonded warehouses, and how “wait and see” behavior moves the market.
We wrap with practical insight: using ISM PMI and new orders as leading indicators, how Roadcheck Week (ELD focus) can tighten capacity fast, and a simple rule that works—start your day at the same time, every time.
If you want to better understand the market and stay ahead, this episode is for you.
Key Takeaways 👇
✅ Rate spikes don’t always mean more freight—capacity shifts drive volatility
✅ The market is near the bottom of the cycle, with capacity exits creating a rate floor
✅ Spot rates move fast, but contract rates lag—understanding both is key
✅ Weather impacts rates by slowing the network, not increasing demand
✅ Produce season and regional shifts can quickly change lane profitability
✅ Enforcement and paperwork risk influence where drivers choose to run
✅ Flatbed demand is supported by construction and AI data center growth
✅ Tariffs and policy uncertainty impact freight through shipper behavior, not just rules
✅ ISM PMI and new orders are strong leading indicators for freight trends
✅ Roadcheck Week (ELD focus) can tighten capacity almost overnight
✅ Consistency wins—starting your day at the same time improves performance and results
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
SPEAKER_01 (00:00):
Hi everyone, welcome back to That's Delivered Again.
(00:02):
I'm your host, Truck and Ray,and we have a very special guest
to be back on with us again.
It's Dan Croak.
All month uh we've beenhighlighting leaders from DAT,
and today we've got one of ourfavorites.
Uh Dean brings something uniqueto trucking.
He connects with hard data, uhreal world experience,
economics, and human performancein a way that actually helps
(00:23):
drivers make better decisions,um, especially with uh all the
information that DAT gets.
Dean puts it out there in a waythat's easy to digest.
Um, Dean, it's always good tohave you back on the show.
Dean, how are you doing?
Yeah, good.
Always good to be with you, Ray.
Oh man, it's uh it's a great daywhen I can get some information
(00:46):
from Dean and learn about allthe wonderful ways that uh we
can do better in the freightindustry and the freight market.
So yeah, let's start with thebig picture, uh the real market
pulse.
Um if you had to describe thefreight market in the world
right now, uh, what would it be?
What would you say?
SPEAKER_00 (01:05):
Um volatile.
Like this is uh we're at thebottom of the freight market,
right?
Which is this is extraordinary.
Um we're seeing rate volatilitylike we haven't seen in years,
but lacking demand.
Like so this isn't a freightdemand story.
Normally, when you see this kindof volatility in the freight
(01:25):
market, so for those that, youknow, when I say freight market,
I don't mean sand and gravel anddiesel and gasoline and jet
fuel, right?
Or what you do, LTL parcels.
Like I'm talking about freight.
So freight of all kinds, um,steel, you know, aluminum
produce, um, things that moveover 250 miles, they're freight
(01:47):
of all kinds.
So um demand is fairly sluggishto flat, maybe down in some
sectors.
So demand is not really strong,so it's not like we're hauling
more freight.
Um, but it's a real capacitystory, right?
We've seen a lot of capacityexit the market in the last
little while.
Some of it's because ofregulatory pressure.
(02:07):
Most of it's though, is becausethe industry's just been losing
more capacity because it's beensuch a poor rate market.
But that's been going on for thelast four or five years.
So uh we've lost something like10% of the number of employees
in the trucking industry overthe last three years in
particular.
When you look at the number ofemployees on the Bureau of Labor
and Statistics in payroll, likewe've been losing employees on
(02:31):
the uh employee side of theindustry, that's not owner
operators.
So we've been losing capacity.
I think that's the big story.
Now, when you look at theregulatory side, like there's
been a lot of uh headlinesaround the illegality or the
illegal side of our industry,whether it be uh, you know, sham
operators, chameleon carriers,uh uh non-domicile city or
(02:54):
carriers, English languageproficiency, all those sorts of
headlines.
That's part of the story.
Uh that's added to some of thecapacity leave in the industry.
The bigger picture is that therehas been a structural reduction
in capacity for a variety ofreasons.
So what we've ended up with iswe're down here at the bottom of
this freight cycle.
And that kind of happened inOctober last year.
(03:18):
So we get to Thanksgiving and wehad three weeks of back-to-back
weather, which I'm sure you werecaught up in on the road.
Now, when you get toThanksgiving, which was at the
latest possible time in thecalendar, then you had four
weeks of shipping, you know,freight market, which was a lot
of e-commerce sort of into thoseend consumer markets, and then
(03:42):
you had three weeks of freightuh congestion because of extreme
weather, particularly in thenorthern tier.
You had a scenario where thefreight networks were kind of
snarled up because the trucksliterally couldn't move.
And so spot rates went throughthe roof, and then they kind of
came back a little bit, and thenwe had winter storm fern and
(04:03):
Guiana, and then freight ratestook off again.
And some people misunderstoodthat as a sign that the market
had flipped.
And what they really didn'tunderstand was that you know,
the spot markets 20% of theloads moved, and contract
markets about 80% of the loadsmoved.
Well, the spot market really wasa sign that you know X there was
(04:25):
a surge in demand over and abovewhat contract carriers could
move.
Contract carriers haven't beenadding more trucks because rates
haven't been that good.
So they didn't have a lot morecapacity to move extra loads.
Now, it wasn't like we weremoving more loads, it's just
that the rest of the market wasmoving slower because the
weather was so bad.
(04:45):
Capacity tightened becausetrucks were moving slower, not
because we had more freight.
unknown (04:50):
Right?
SPEAKER_00 (04:51):
This is what a lot of people struggle with.
But during the pandemic,remember we had rates went
through the roof during thepandemic.
Well, it wasn't because we weremoving more loads, it was
because the freight networkreduced to a crawl because there
were no employees on loadingdocks to load trucks because of
the pandemic.
So the freight network sloweddown.
So when the average speed ofyour network slows down, it
(05:12):
tightens capacity.
So what we've so when weatherhits, capacity tightens and
rates go up.
Now, so this this weatherscenario capacity tightened
because the miles got harder andslower and people did fewer of
them.
And that's one of the thingsthat carriers get caught with is
well, the rates go up, but ofcourse you do fewer miles
(05:34):
because the miles are harder tocome by in the in the bad
weather.
So even though you might beearning another, you know, two
or three cents per mile or 40cents a mile, you it it doesn't,
it's kind of it's a bit of awash at the end of the week if
you couldn't do more miles, oryou're held over because of poor
weather.
So we're kind of at the bottomof this freight market where
(05:54):
there's a lot of volatility inthe market where rates go up and
down because of weather, and uh,but demand is really flat.
And um, what we've seen in thelast couple of weeks is that the
market has cooled off again,predictably.
So we've seen seasonality emergein the dry band and reefer
market.
In fact, in the last two weeks,the refrigerated market's given
(06:14):
up half of the gains that itpicked up from the winter storm
burn.
So when when Fern hit, rateswent up 24 cents a mile in two
weeks.
The last two weeks they'ddropped 11 cents.
So, but I think the the bigstory is so if you said where do
we sit now at the end ofFebruary?
Well, we're about 25% higherthan where we were a year ago.
(06:35):
So rates have definitelyincreased compared to where they
were a year ago.
So there's a new flaw.
And I think that's important.
If you said, what's the bigtakeaway from everything I've
just waffled that well, there'sa new flaw in the freight
market.
And that means that rates arehigher.
Why are they higher?
There's fewer trucks.
So if demand is flat and thereisn't any more loads being moved
(06:57):
relative to last year, if ifdemand is flat, it just means
that there's fewer trucks tohaul the same number of loads.
So rates are sitting a littlebit higher in the dry van and
reefer sector compared to lastyear.
So it looks like there's been astructural removal of capacity
in the market, somewhere in theorder of four to five percent of
the number of trucks on the roadhave been removed.
(07:17):
And I think it's got a lot to dowith the market's just been
terrible.
And there's been a lot ofcarriers leave, go bankrupt,
close their doors.
I do think there's been a lot ofcarriers that have been caught
up in the non-domicile CDLbusiness.
Insurance companies havesqueezed them out, have you
know, asked the question aboutwho are your drivers?
Are they legitimate carriers?
Um, a lot of drivers, though,Ray, have just said, you know
(07:40):
what, we're not interested ingoing anywhere near the southern
border and being harassed, likeAmerican citizens.
So we've actually had them sayto us, like, we look at the
rates out of McAllen back to LosAngeles, and those drivers come
from California.
SPEAKER_02 (07:54):
Yeah.
SPEAKER_00 (07:54):
And like there's a lot of produce carriers that
come from California that areAmerican citizen drivers that
just won't leave California ifyou were being harassed.
So when you look at the backhaulrefrigerated lanes, that the
capacity is supplied byCalifornia, you can see the
rates have been up 40% sinceSeptember when I set up camp on
the southern border.
(08:16):
So whether it's Laredo orMcAllen, and remember that
Laredo and McCallan, half yourproduce out of Mexico comes
through those two ports.
Most of it's McCallan, actually.
And the Mexico produce seasonruns from now through May.
So what we're seeing is that thethere is a structural removal in
capacity.
There's a lot of volatility onregional freight lanes.
(08:37):
So the so whilst the nationalrates are up, there is a lot
more volatility though on otherfreight lanes.
So so then let's go to Florida,which is sort of now we're
starting the 2026 produceseason.
We just had Valentine's Day.
Uh, spot rates were up out ofFlorida ahead of Valentine's
Day, where 90% of your freshflowers come from into Miami.
(09:00):
And uh spot rates are up in theorder of 40% in the week, you
know, leading up to Valentine'sDay for produce loads and refill
loads out of uh Miami.
Well, they crashed by as muchlast week, after Valentine's
Day, because the demanddisappeared.
So uh again, that's nosurpriser.
That shouldn't surprise anybody,but why did they go up so much?
(09:22):
Why were carriers getting paid athousand to fifteen hundred
dollars more per refrigeratedload out of Miami than a year
ago?
Like that's extraordinary.
Well, the reason is, and again,I'm I can't be 100% certain, but
the fact that ICE and DHSturned, well DHS in particular,
(09:43):
turned every scale house into animmigration enforcement center
in September last year inFlorida has a lot to do with
that.
Because anecdotally, we hadcarriers tell us we're just not
interested in going deep intoFlorida because there's only
certain roads in and out,Florida.
If your paperwork's not squeakyclean or you're a minority and
you're worried about beingtargeted, drivers were telling
(10:04):
us that they were fearful ofgoing anywhere near Florida.
And again, we had we hadCalifornia carriers rejecting
loads that were going toFlorida, out of California.
So so again, I sort of this I'myou could go back and search any
of those shows that I've doneback in January, and I said,
we're we're expecting to see alot of volatility in Florida
when produce season starts.
(10:26):
And here was one of the firstsigns.
Now, the cold weather fromwinter storm fern slowed down
berry season, strawberryseason's been damaged, uh,
blueberry season's been damaged.
So produce volumes are behindabout 31% year to date in
Florida right now.
So we're not seeing any of thatnow.
So I think the the capacity, thevolatility is going to be hit
(10:49):
the most in the refrigeratedproduce sector this year.
That's where I think the realstory is going to be.
Because I think the the pressurefrom the regulatory side has
been mostly in the reefersector, because I think that's
where a lot of our minoritytruckers have ended up, the ones
that are being targeted themost.
(11:09):
And I think that's where we'regoing to see the big story this
year is a lot of volatility isgoing to be in the refrigerated
sector when produce seasonreally starts.
Um, flatbed, it's doing what italways does.
Flatbed's having a wonderfulyear, largely because of the AI
data center boom.
Anything to do with data centerconstruction in the middle of
nowhere where there's a craneand permits and a big deadhead
(11:31):
component on the back end of it.
Flatbed carriers are having awonderful season.
But again, flatbed, we'reheading into building
construction, planting, nursery,farming, machinery import
season, which peaks in March.
And uh flatbed carriers areflatbed rates are up in the
order of about 15% year overyear.
So they're having another greatyear.
(11:51):
And um, but again, that's prettymuch on par with what flatbed
rates always do.
They always go up from Decemberthrough through March, April,
May, and then they kind of cooloff.
So it there's a the you know,dry band reefer behave pretty
much the same.
Flatbed rates kind of go up andthen flat uh then uh then their
(12:12):
plateau.
But I think the the real storyabout the freight market is
rates are observably higher thanwhere they were a year ago, and
that's because capacity has leftthe market.
But what I think I'll pause herebecause what it means is that
for anybody in this market, whenwe get to the bottom of this
market, which is when capacityhas largely exited the market
(12:34):
and we're at at a point ofequilibrium, where in very
simple terms the number of loadsequals the number of trucks,
whenever there's a surge infreight demand, rates will
skyrocket.
So there's that volatility.
So think about Mother's Day, uh,July 4, all those sort of
seasonal events, you'll see veryfew trucks able to handle that
(12:58):
surge in demand.
So I think this the story ofthis year will be um constrained
capacity meets, you know, sortof stabilizing freight demand.
And it just means that RoadCheck Week in particular this
year that's focusing on ELDs, Ithink you'll see a lot more
carriers take time off this yearbecause of the ELD focus.
And you'll see rates absolutelygo through the roof in that
(13:20):
10-day period, without doubt.
SPEAKER_01 (13:22):
Nice.
Awesome, man.
You you know how to cover it.
SPEAKER_00 (13:27):
Yeah, it's a big summary.
Sorry it takes so long to dothat.
SPEAKER_01 (13:30):
But no, everybody that's listening to Kroke here
from DAT.
I mean, you guys have all thedata and information.
Um, talking about data centers.
I mean, I'm sure you guys arealso staying prepared with all
the changes that are comingthrough.
What's um what do you thinkthings are gonna do with uh
possibly in the future withtariffs?
Um, there are people wonderingwhat that's gonna do to change.
(13:52):
Uh, I guess it's maybe too soonto know.
Um recording this.
So um what would you say?
SPEAKER_00 (13:58):
Probably probably by the time maybe in a few days
from when this airs, it it couldchange.
It could change by uh, you know,in a week's time.
Uh uh by the time um I think Ithink global trade's being
rewritten in real time.
I think that's the point.
But I do think, Ray, a lot ofthis is already baked in.
(14:19):
The uh the betting marketsalready had factored in that the
administration would lose this.
So I think a lot of shippers hadalready figured out that that
the administration was going tolose this and that we were going
to see um things revert back towhere they were.
So I think um I I think the uhyou know the net change of all
(14:40):
of this, the the the SupremeCourt ruling is that the global
shift to a 15% tariff, whichagain we didn't see coming, well
maybe we should have, um theYale budget lab estimates that
the change reduces the overalleffective of US tariffs by only
about 2%.
So the fact that all of thetariffs were made uh considered
(15:02):
illegal, the new 15% globaltariff effectively reduces UF
cap US tariffs by only 2%, butit varies by tariff.
So a 5% reduction for China.
So that's what that's what itmeans for China and Vietnam, no
change on the EU, 5% increasefor the UK, big reduction for
Brazil, down from 40% to 15%.
(15:24):
So it's a country by country uhchange, but I don't know, I
think there's going to be a waitand see approach.
I think that a lot of shippershave uh seen um, you know, the
whipsawing effect of the lastyear has made people a lot more
cautious.
(15:45):
I think shippers and carriersare going to be more cautious on
any major inventory bills givenpast tariff policy volatility.
Um, I do think we're going tosee um some near-term import
surges and bonded warehouseactivity.
I do suspect there's been a lotof freight sitting in bonded
warehouses around the countrywaiting to move.
And of course, the tariff andimport duties will be triggered
(16:07):
once as soon as they move out ofthat bonded warehouse.
So I think that could be ascenario, particularly along the
southern border and some ofthose big bonded warehouse
markets that we have around thecountry.
Um, so you know, you've got abunch down on Laredo, you've got
some around Miami, uh, Memphis,Dallas, Port Worth, big ones
around Chicago, Joliet, you'vegot a bunch around the southern
(16:28):
border, around uh Otta Mesa, um,you know, Long Beach, Oakland,
Seattle, Tacoma, New York, ofcourse.
So I think there's some bigwarehouse markets that could see
some dry van freight flood outof those markets.
As to whether it makes a bigimpact on the national freight
market, I don't think so.
But again, it all comes back toconsumer demand.
(16:49):
Like, are you and I going to buymore things?
That's going to fundamentallymean you're going to have more
LTL freight in the back of your28-foot pups tonight or your
53-foot vans.
Uh, I don't know.
I that's the real story.
I think that we're just notseeing anything that says we've
got more demand that's going totrigger more loads on trucks.
(17:09):
If anything, it creates moreuncertainty, which means more
doubt.
Because that was the real storylast year.
Was when Liberation Day camearound, everyone hit the pause
button and said, hang on, weneed to wait and see.
Well, what Friday told us was weneed to wait and see again.
SPEAKER_01 (17:27):
Yeah, patience.
SPEAKER_00 (17:28):
So I think, yeah, I think I think a lot of people
are going to say now, okay, weneed to wait and see how this
plays out.
And I think some of our tradingpartners have said, okay, if
this is illegal and we can get arefund on the you know tariffs
we've paid, we need to let thisyou know play its course.
I just don't think there'll be afundamental increase in
truckload demand to the levelpeople are you know hoping for.
SPEAKER_01 (17:51):
So yeah, so if it does spike, just still be
patient and wait it out.
Is that some of the mistakespeople are you're seeing?
Uh carriers, uh, once they seethe headlines, they see the
trends, uh what would you say tothem uh for you know not to make
this mistake or to repeat amistake?
SPEAKER_00 (18:10):
Yeah, I'd just say keep your powder dry.
Like, you know, don't be don'tget too caught up in the
headlines.
You know, the internet rushes tofill a vacuum with with
headlines, and uh and and we allwant rates to improve.
Now, we started the segmenttalking about rates are up 25%
year over year.
The rub there is that higherrates is going to attract
(18:32):
capacity back into the market.
People are gonna buy trucks andjoin the market.
Well, isn't that isn't that acrazy scenario?
You've just gone through a yearwhere everyone was bellyaching
about all these sham carriers inthe market that were driving
rates down.
Well, rates are going up now,which everyone wanted.
Well, that means that in a freemarket like this, people are
(18:54):
gonna go out and buy trucks andjoin the market again.
Now, that's a problem if demandisn't there.
So I would say be very carefulabout what you wish for and
don't get caught up in theheadlines.
I would just say to people,ignore the headlines and just
worry about your own backyard.
Like control what you can.
Like that's that's old advice.
(19:14):
That's not new advice.
Like control, worry about thethings you can control.
Because this isn't a time to begetting too caught up in the
headlines because we still don'thave any fundamental signs that
demand for truckload tonnage isstable enough that we can say
the market is improving.
Right now, so rates are up 25%year over year.
(19:35):
We had we've seen some capacityleave, but the market hasn't
flipped.
Now, I look at one data point Iwatched that's absolutely
critical for truckload carrierswatching is the ISM Purchasing
Managers Index, which comes outon the second or third of each
month.
Now, January came out, it was upfor the first time in almost a
year.
So the ISM PMI has a very strongpositive correlation to the
(19:58):
direction of dry ban rates.
So it's it comes out next week.
So now I I said it, I said backin January, if we see three
months of positive uh movement,so it's a it's a diffusion
index.
So it's anything above 50 meansthe economy is can expanding.
Anything below 50, it's it'scontracting.
(20:19):
So it's been below 50 for bestpart of last year.
Well, it was at 52.6 in January.
So if it's above 50 in Februaryand above 50 in March, and it's
in expansion territory, and neworders, which are new orders at
manufacturers, and new ordersmean loads on trucks eventually.
So all that, you know, domesticmanufacturing is sort of the
(20:40):
thing that underpins thetrucking industry.
It puts loads in the back ofyour trailer, it puts loads on
the back of trucks on the DATnetwork.
Those domestic manufacturingnumbers are absolutely critical
to more demand and then peoplebuying more trucks and large
truckload carriers like Wernerand Swift and Schneider ordering
(21:01):
more new trucks, right, frommanufacturers.
So all those demand isabsolutely critical, but we need
a couple of months of reallypositive indicators to say,
okay, now we've got something.
The market's on the way toimproving.
Well, the Supreme Court rulingand then 15% global tariffs
(21:21):
might have just pulled the airout of that.
We'll have to see what happensnow.
It's exactly what happened lastApril.
Like the market was improving inJanuary, February, March last
year.
There is no question the freightmarket was improving because all
the numbers were heading up.
And then the trade war startedand the market tanked.
(21:43):
Well, we've just had one monthof really positive numbers, and
we're waiting for February todrop shortly.
And now we had the Supreme Courtruling, and now a 15% global
tariff, and now moreuncertainty.
We may have another repeat oflast year on our hands.
I just don't know.
No, so it's kind of a wait andsee attitude.
I would be if my advice tocarriers would be this is still
(22:05):
a cost control market, likecontrolling your costs and and
being being very cautious is theabsolute name of the game.
Because even though rates are upand your margins may be
expanding, there's there's stillno certainty that freight demand
that underpins everything iswe're really on solid footing
just yet.
SPEAKER_01 (22:25):
Wow.
Yeah, that's beautifully said.
I think uh a lot of people canbenefit from that.
What would you say uh for thehotshot market?
A lot of people get into the boxtrucks and the smaller uh
vehicles because you don't haveto have the same type of
requirements, you know, maybeclass B or less.
Um what would you say about thatindustry?
SPEAKER_00 (22:44):
Yeah, I think there's opportunity there.
I think there's always beenopportunity.
That's one sector that has stuckduring the entire pandemic.
I think there's a lot ofopportunity, particularly when
rates start to go up.
I think there's an opportunityfor partloads at more attractive
rates.
I think that's gonna be asegment that's gonna hold.
Because I think there's, youknow, finding ways to move
(23:06):
freight um partloads at you knowlower costs per mile is probably
gonna be a segment that couldwin when rates start to rise.
I'm not an expert in the hotshot market, but I that's it,
it's it's one segment that Ihave seen do exceptionally well
during the entire pandemic.
So there seems to be a shiftfrom on the shipper side to part
(23:31):
loads.
So we've seen in our business,and it's largely been driven by
shippers' lack of willingness tohave higher levels of inventory
to fill full trailer loads.
SPEAKER_01 (23:41):
Yeah, yeah.
SPEAKER_00 (23:42):
So it means that they're they're they're when the
orders come in, they're lesslikely to put you know, weight
to fill a van, a dry van,they're shipping it out in into
hot shot segments rather thanwaiting for a 53-foot dry van.
So I think that's a segment thathas stuck and is likely to
continue.
And I think there's some realcost advantages for shippers on
(24:04):
that front.
So I think it's a segment that'sgoing to grow.
I I think on the demand side,there is there is uh still good
times ahead for that segment.
SPEAKER_01 (24:12):
Yeah, I mean, it's definitely a great time to think
about planning if uh if anythingfor the shipper, or also if you
are a person who's trying to dosomething different.
SPEAKER_00 (24:20):
Especially while diesel diesel stays relatively
low compared to where it's been,like lower.
I mean, still it's stillfavorable.
Like it's we've just seen dieselprices relatively um low
compared to where they were ayear ago.
Like so I don't see headwindsthere on the diesel front for
that segment.
So I think that's that's anotherpositive.
SPEAKER_01 (24:39):
Yeah, I think something that's something maybe
that will be more consistent.
Um, who knows how I got there?
Um, there'd be a lot ofspeculation, but uh maybe for
the next three years um we canexpect that at least.
Yeah.
Um what about the human factoruh performance when it comes to
sleep and efficiency?
I know you're an expert on thatas well.
(24:59):
We need to get your viewpoint onthat.
Um I mean, you got the ELD.
Um, there's some talk about themmaking some changes there.
Uh, what would you say for forthe interviews out there that
are, you know, maybe they'refighting burnout or maybe
they're looking for relief.
Yeah.
SPEAKER_00 (25:16):
Um talk of flexibility.
I see a lot of headlines aroundum people going back to paper
logs.
Um I think it's wishfulthinking.
I I do see a big push by theFMCSA to go towards get away
from self-certification.
So I think that's a really goodmove.
I think there's there's been abig problem around ELDs that are
(25:38):
um the self-certification modelhas has always been a problem in
my mind.
It's allowed a lot of companiesto come in and create these uh
software packages where they canum essentially allow carriers to
uh reset their hours everynight, which is kind of crazy,
right?
I don't know if I I listened toa large carrier CEO at a
(26:00):
conference last week in Miamisay that they're overnight uh
overnight resets.
And I said, What do you meanovernight resets?
And he said, Well, these areinter these are companies that
are international providers ofELDs and they're allowing
long-distance truckers to resettheir 60 and 70 every night.
Which I thought, that's crazy.
Like it's so it's not a 34-hourreset every week, and they said,
(26:22):
no, they're doing it everynight.
So it's it's kind of like thisjailbroke ELD concept where you
could run 4,000 miles physical,but only record 2,500 on your
ELD device.
unknown (26:33):
Wow.
SPEAKER_00 (26:33):
So it's a bit like an electronic paper log, if you
know what I mean.
SPEAKER_02 (26:36):
Yeah.
SPEAKER_00 (26:37):
Like so, so there's there's all of these carriers
out there that have been runningthese illegal ELD devices
running more miles, creatingmore capacity than and but
recording a much lower level ofhours and miles on their ELD
device.
And the and the FMCSA has beengetting rid of them on their
(26:59):
register.
You can see them, you can seethe company names on their on
the FMCSA website.
So that's why RoadCheck Week onMay the 12th to 14th is focusing
on ELDs this time around.
So I think there's a big focuson ELDs.
Now I think carriers, once theykick these companies off, they
go to paper logs.
And um so there's a there's thatside of it.
(27:20):
So I don't know how manycarriers are going to get caught
up in that side of it.
That's a concern.
But I think your broaderquestion is forget all that,
forget all the ELDs and andhuman performance.
The one thing I would say toyou, forget the compliance and
the ELD side of it.
The one thing that you alwaysneed to do, regardless of all
(27:40):
that, is just start work at thesame time every day.
Like it's a simple formula.
Doesn't matter how many hoursyou drive or whatever you do,
you know that from yourschedule.
SPEAKER_01 (27:49):
Yeah, you meant that last time, too.
SPEAKER_00 (27:51):
Yeah, you stay.
Um the human brain is really,really simple when it comes to
the sleep wake cycle.
It's got a the the biggestimportant uh input is light.
Like so our sleep-wake cycle isset by the rising and setting of
the sun.
So uh blue light in particularwithin the invisible light
spectrum is the thing thatreally starts your your uh sleep
(28:12):
wake cycle every day.
So if you're not starting workat the same time every day, your
sleep cycle is disrupted.
So an inconsistent start timemeans your sleep cycle is
disrupted.
And that's what drives safety inthe wrong direction every single
day.
So I would say to anyone,regardless of what how many
(28:32):
hours you work or where youdrive, or whether you're a hot
shot or a long distance truck oran LTL or a heavy hauler, the
one thing I would say to you,and and so this is someone
that's been in trucking for 48years, I would say to you, start
work at the same time every day,become a creature of habit.
No matter so design yourschedule, your pickups, your
delivery windows around when youget out of bed every day, but
(28:56):
make it the same time every day.
Become a creature of habit anddon't negotiate on it because
you will run better, you'll feelbetter, you'll be healthier,
you'll eat better.
It'll just power all of thosegood decisions you need to make
every day.
Because, hey, Ray, withoutsleep, we all behave like
two-year-olds.
We all know that, right?
SPEAKER_01 (29:14):
Yeah.
Yeah, yeah.
It comes out on their own too.
Don't we?
Wow, what's going on?
So you think biocapablescheduling is gaining any uh
traction at all for companieslike that?
SPEAKER_00 (29:25):
I don't think so.
You know, biocompatiblescheduling is it's um I'm a
learn voice when it comes tothis.
I think so.
Biocompatible scheduling wasvery popular during the paper
log era because that's what weall did.
We just didn't call itbiocompatible scheduling.
We just slept when we were tiredand drove when we were awake.
That's what it was called.
We just slept according to ourbiology.
(29:47):
Now, now it's got a fancy titlenow because we all know about
sleep science, but heck, go inand try and put in a
biocompatible schedule into atrucking company and get them to
design a schedule around adriver's sleep pattern and get
them to book appointments with ashipper or a receiver around
when a driver wants to sleep andsee how long that conversation
lasts.
(30:08):
They laugh at you.
But but if you actually get itto work, you would not believe
the difference it makes.
And it and it works.
Like it's not like you're doingless loads or less miles, you're
just doing them differently.
Like it's not complicated.
With all the technology we'vegot today, it's actually much
easier to do.
It just requires people to havethe right level of imagination
(30:28):
and commitment.
SPEAKER_01 (30:30):
Yeah, I mean, there's a there's a lot of uh
daytime sleepiness, there's alot of people that take uh
medicine to go to sleep.
And uh who knows what thelong-term effects are.
You know, you're gonna be ableto do it.
SPEAKER_00 (30:41):
Well, a lot of it's too with light, Ray.
You mean you talk about uhwinter time, like uh excessive
daytime sleepiness is a symptomof um, you know, it's a sleep
apnea symptom, but also inwinter when you get lot less of
less levels of light, you haveum you know, you have that sleep
disorder that comes from lack ofsunlight.
(31:02):
Yeah so it's a form ofdepression that you get.
So there's light is a reallyimportant thing to to um to you
know stay in touch with.
Um sleep doesn't happen byaccident.
Like I think that's the thingyou've got to focus on as a
driver.
It's not a one-size-fits-all,everybody's got to work harder
at this as they get older.
Um, light is a really importantthing.
(31:24):
So we tend to yeah.
SPEAKER_01 (31:27):
I go to Texas and the sun hits the windshield, and
I'm like, we're gonna go, man,this is nice.
You know, it's not gonna comeback to the Midwest.
And yeah, like you're up innorth uh northeastern part
there.
And I mean, man, yeah, yeah.
The weather makes a hugedifference on your morale and
just everything.
SPEAKER_00 (31:44):
Well, it's called SAD, right?
Seasonal affective disorder.
So that's what people innorthern latitudes or up in
Alaska get affected with.
That's what it's called, sad,and it's uh it's a form of
depression from lack of light.
So there's all sorts of lighttherapy you can use to
supplement, you know, light orblue light in particular, but
it's um you know, it's thereverse in summer.
(32:05):
Like so, you know, when you'vegot 15 hours of sunlight, um,
the sleep gate doesn't open tilllate at night because you've got
so much light.
Your sunset's not till nine atnight.
Yeah, your brain's not gettingthe signal at nights here.
And that's why truck accidentsand car accidents go up in
summer.
You know, you would think, oh,there's less accidents in
summer.
Well, no, you got less sleep.
(32:27):
So you had more accidents.
SPEAKER_01 (32:28):
So it's the insurance company, man, because
it's uh they had a bad stormcome through here and it was
dry.
And then when I got back, butthere were tons of semis that I
think they just leave in theditch and come back later.
Um yeah, because it's I think itpassed six um just in a short
period of time in one state.
(32:50):
And uh it's like, man, that wastwo days ago.
SPEAKER_00 (32:54):
Yeah.
Yeah, it's pretty wild what goeson in winter.
Um this is an amazing countryfor weather.
It's extreme.
SPEAKER_01 (33:04):
Yeah, tell me about that.
Um, I know you come from adifferent country, and that is
about the same size as the as uhUnited States, but you know,
it's a total climate.
SPEAKER_00 (33:14):
You have no jet stream, no gulf, no gulf stream,
you have no uh it's nothing.
Like it's flat and you have umno topography, no Sierras, no
Rocky Mountains, so you have umit's one-dimensional weather.
It's just hot and dry.
SPEAKER_01 (33:28):
Really?
Yeah.
Because I see a lot of um likethe desert like outback
backwoods, I call them out backin Australia.
But uh yeah, it looks like whatI would see in Colorado,
Wyoming.
SPEAKER_00 (33:43):
So if you go from um if you go from Kilgore in Texas
to Albuquerque, you know thatthat terrain, right?
You go from the pine trees inKilgore to the desert in uh uh
Albuquerque, that's the same asgoing from Sydney to Perth in
Australia.
Really?
That's like that's that three.
So what's that?
(34:03):
Is that I don't know how manymiles that is from Kilgore to
Albuquerque, but that's that'sthe 3200 miles across Australia.
And in between though, isnothing.
Like so, so in a truck from youknow Sydney to Perth in
Australia, it's uh used to do itwith express, it was 43 hours.
So we do it in express 43 hours.
(34:26):
Um it's 4200 kilometers.
I can't remember what that is inmiles, but um once you once you
get out outside of the metroarea, there's nothing.
Like so, there's a couple oftruck stops on the way, but it's
a lot of straight road nothingand no one to call.
Like, so you're not callinganybody for a flat tire.
So we've got four tires underthe trailer, and like we're
(34:46):
changing tires if we blow one,and and you got six tanks of
fuel, so you've got seven, eighthundred gallons, you've got
belly tanks, uh diesel.
So like you're um it's asurvival game.
Like, so you're not like it's awhole different deal in the when
you talk about the outback, likeit's a it's like a really
inhospitable area if you breakdown.
SPEAKER_01 (35:07):
Yeah.
SPEAKER_00 (35:08):
But but there's lots of but there's not lots, there's
other truckers around.
So it's like trucking's a littlebit different.
You never you never not pull upif someone's broken down.
So what's the golden rule?
You never, ever drive pastsomeone that's broken down
because it could be youtomorrow.
So and we're all we're allpretty handy at fixing things.
(35:30):
Like so the you know, the ruleis you fix what you break.
Um the other rule is you ringdispatch from a long way away in
the morning.
SPEAKER_01 (35:40):
No pens.
SPEAKER_00 (35:41):
You've got to be able to you've got to be able to
make a really good mile.
SPEAKER_01 (35:44):
Like you don't have anybody just showing up in a
pickup truck.
SPEAKER_00 (35:48):
So yeah, we we have we carry iron tools, like so.
We have toolboxes, like we carrytools, tool sets.
Like I still have a like I ha inmy Peterbelt, I've got tools,
like I got four toolboxes.
I can mine's a show truck.
SPEAKER_01 (36:02):
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
SPEAKER_00 (36:03):
I can call anybody to fix my truck anywhere, but I
have four toolboxes.
Right?
I have more spare parts under mytruck just in case.
It's a it's a habit.
Nice.
Like I just fix stuff.
So so yeah, trucking in theOutback is very different.
But again, it's it's like Ithink that's how it should be.
Like I think I think that's howyou I when I take the profession
(36:25):
seriously.
I I think it's a it's aprofession.
I mean, I think that's how itshould be.
Like you should take this jobseriously.
But um I don't say that gliblybecause this industry can spit
you up and spit you out reallyquickly if you don't take it
seriously.
You you know what it's likeevery night when you're out
there.
You're gonna take your eye offthe wheel for a second and it
(36:46):
can destroy you.
So not even that's just thephysical driving part.
Then there's the mental andhealth aspect if you don't take
it seriously.
I mean, this is a hard job, it'sa hard industry.
SPEAKER_01 (36:56):
Yeah, sleep after a while.
SPEAKER_00 (36:58):
You gotta take it seriously, yeah.
SPEAKER_01 (37:00):
You gotta really pay attention.
SPEAKER_00 (37:01):
Um great industry, like wonderful industry.
I love the people.
I've been involved in it all mylife.
Like it's a really goodindustry.
Yeah.
SPEAKER_01 (37:11):
Especially you guys over there at DAT, man.
I mean, I really love the wayyou guys present yourself, the
way you put things out there forpeople to understand, and the
knowledge that you guys are ableto obtain.
I mean, I mean, that's a lot ofdata that you guys are sifting
through.
SPEAKER_00 (37:24):
I mean, we've got a trillion trillion dollars worth
of rate data that's we'veamassed over the, you know, like
we were been around 47 years,but our rate data set's probably
spanning about 15 years now.
So it represents the you know,our average rates are a really
good starting point for anyonetrying to figure out what's the
rate on a lane.
Like it's a great startingpoint.
It's like no one's hauling ratesat$2.48 a mile today, but that's
(37:47):
a starting point.
If that's the average rate on adry van nationally, that's a
great starting point.
Or if you want to know what alane is, that's the place you
start your negotiation.
SPEAKER_01 (37:56):
So what would you say to someone that is just
looking at Facebook groups andnot really paying for a load
board?
SPEAKER_00 (38:02):
Or like be very careful.
They people could be trying tomisdirect you.
Like that's like someone at atruck stop telling you what a
rate is.
They could be trying to tell youwhat the rate is for the wrong
reasons.
Be very careful with that.
SPEAKER_01 (38:15):
Nice, nicely said.
SPEAKER_00 (38:17):
So just because it's on the internet doesn't mean
it's true.
SPEAKER_01 (38:19):
Right.
Yeah, just because someoneprints it.
So that's why I like theseinterviews also, is that we can
talk about it a little longerversus just a comment here and
there.
And um, and looking ahead, um,maybe over the remaining part of
the year, what are some earlyindicators you're watching more
closely?
Um, maybe like a catalyst thatcould accelerate recovery.
(38:40):
What would you say?
SPEAKER_00 (38:41):
Uh so the just to recap, the ISM PMI that we
talked about.
So next week's next Tuesday whenthe Institute of Supply
Management PMI comes out, I'mwatching two things.
If it's the headline number isabove 50, and if the new orders
number in particular is above 50and higher than what it was last
month, there are two numbers I'mwatching next that really
(39:03):
importantly.
Um, the next the next data pointI'm really watching is what
happens when um produce startsrunning out of Salinas,
California.
So when the transition happensfrom Yuma Um to Salinas, that's
an so humor is where iceberglettuce gets uh produced during
(39:25):
winter, it's the winter saladbowl.
Transition happens back toSalinas, that becomes the summer
salad bowl.
That's where you start to seemost of your produce,
strawberries, uh all of those,like so most of our produce is
going to come from Californiaover the summer.
Those volumes really start tomove in March or April, probably
late March.
(39:46):
What I'm really watching for isto see what happens with
refrigerated rates.
Um, capacity's been tight, butrates haven't accelerated yet.
Outbound California.
They're up about 10% compared tolast year.
Now, so if capacity has reallyexited the market, it'll start
to show in about three or fourweeks in California for outbound
(40:07):
produce.
If that's the case, that sets upa scenario where dry band rates
will also rise throughout therest of the year.
Because the because reeferrates, because the dry band
carriers, sorry, the reefercarriers that are under dry band
loads will switch back to thereefer market and that'll
tighten the dry band market.
(40:29):
That's that's why the two trackeach other.
So I think that's what I'mwatching for is the start of
produce season out ofCalifornia, if that provides any
lift in the market.
So there that's the first tell.
That's the second thing I'mreally watching for.
And I think we'll start to seeum we we may see a little bit
(40:50):
more lift on some of the portmarkets.
Um I'm watching for Californiato have a bit of a rebound in
their imports, maybe an earlypeak season.
We could see some of that if uhChina starts to send a few more
imports back in um in April.
So I'm watching some of that toto see.
So there that that's the I thinkthe produce season is going to
be the biggest tell, Ray.
SPEAKER_01 (41:11):
All right.
So personally, to close, uh,what's some things that keep you
optimistic about trucking uhthat you can share with people
out there to keep their headsup?
SPEAKER_00 (41:20):
Um truck shows.
I think truck shows are alwaysthe tell, right?
How many people go to truckshows?
The fact that Mid-America's in31 days or 30 days, um, it tells
me people are still makingmoney, they still care, there's
still the passion for theindustry.
Um there's a lot of doom andgloom in the industry if you
live on the internet.
(41:41):
There's a lot of rage baiting,there's a lot of negative
comments on Facebook.
Um, but hey, when I go to truckshows and I meet the backbone of
the country, the industry, theold school truckers, it gives me
hope that the industry isaligned well and people are
still making money, and thatthere's a lot of people that are
doing exceptionally well.
So truck show seasons are isweeks away, and that's what I
(42:05):
look forward to because that'swhat keeps me going.
Like it's sort of the it's thekind of that ray of sunshine
that's out there, you know, inin what can be a very dark,
gloomy industry.
SPEAKER_01 (42:17):
Wow.
I mean, what's something thatpeople when they look at the
industry uh that we get rightthat other people don't
understand?
What would you say to that?
SPEAKER_00 (42:28):
Uh what do we get right?
Um we yeah, we we get stuffdone.
Like we I think we do it with awe we do it without any fuss.
I mean, we we just get stuffdelivered.
Um we do it, we do it in a waythat we make it look so easy
(42:51):
that most people don't evennotice.
That's that's the part I I a lotof truckers think, oh that's
there's nothing to that.
Like, and I think no, there is alot to doing what you just did.
Like do you running an LTL turnat night?
There's an enormous amount ofrisk in doing what you do.
I know it.
Like I know what you fight everynight.
SPEAKER_01 (43:11):
Well, now I'm probably uh doing the sleeper
too, or I'm sleeping in the backwhile someone else drives.
SPEAKER_00 (43:16):
Oh, yeah, even harder, even harder.
So yeah, that's tough, man.
That's tough.
So so doing so I I think that'sthe part that most people don't
understand is that we just wemake you know, we deliver, we
carry the economy one load at atime, and I think that's the
part most people don'tunderstand is um we make it look
(43:38):
so effortless, yet it goesunnoticed.
And I think that's the to me,that's the part that makes us so
special.
SPEAKER_01 (43:46):
That's awesome.
Beautifully said.
Um we'll speak on that too.
I mean, that's delivered, youknow.
That's why I came up with thename.
Yeah, it's just that's the bestpart when you when you get it
delivered.
That's it's the final product.
You know, you don't have to sayanything.
There it is.
SPEAKER_00 (44:00):
Well it's a lot of pride.
I thought I think there's anenormous amount of pride.
People say, Why did you lovetrucking?
I said, I always take a lot ofpride in tying down a load on a
flatbed, delivering itundamaged, not wet, and in one
piece.
Like there's a that takes a lotof skill on terrible roads, mind
you.
Like wow, but turning up on timewith it in one place, not
(44:20):
damaged.
Like I used to take enormouspride in that.
SPEAKER_01 (44:23):
That's great.
SPEAKER_00 (44:24):
It's crazy.
Like people think, are you nuts?
Yeah, I used to love that.
SPEAKER_01 (44:30):
I mean, I think that's great.
Um especially the part where yousay it's dry.
I mean, those tarps doubletarped if you don't do it right,
I mean it can really take awayand even probably hurt somebody
too, because if they fly off,they'll cover entire cars and
stuff.
SPEAKER_00 (44:43):
So I saw a post the other day, Adam Wingfield, on
LinkedIn, and someone wastalking about straps on loads of
steel.
And I said, I would never haul aload of steel with straps.
I don't care if the ship hassaid no chains.
I'm chaining that load like youwouldn't pull that.
I'm putting every chain I've goton it.
I don't care about the rulesabout how many chains per every
10 feet.
I'm putting as many chains onthat thing as I can.
(45:05):
I don't care.
I'm putting every chain I've gotout of that toolbox.
Every chain.
I would never haul a load ofsteel with straps.
I don't care what you say.
That stuff moves like youwouldn't believe.
And uh minimum the minimalistapproach doesn't work for me
with steel.
And and and and this post wasabout a shipper saying you can't
(45:28):
use chains because it'll scratchthe steel.
And I'm thinking about it.
No, no, no, no, no, no, no.
That shipper doesn't understandhow steel moves because you
can't get enough bite on Ibeams.
I don't care.
You just they don't know howfreight moves under a load.
So um anyway, just I mean,that's just a personal opinion,
but I think there's a lot to umhandling freight.
(45:50):
There's and I think the onlything that makes it not a big
deal in this country is theroads are so good.
We just don't your roads, theroads here, right, are so good
that you don't need the level ofload securement that other
countries do.
SPEAKER_01 (46:07):
Oh I can only I can't there.
Wow, um I'm spoiled because uhyeah, I'm back to the bigger.
I think we are here.
SPEAKER_00 (46:14):
I think we are here, yeah, because you don't have the
soft shoulders and single-laneblacktop that I come from.
Um where you've got to chainthat bad boy down where there's
everything you've got, chain itwithin an inch of its life, so
it's not moving sideways orforward and back.
So I just but I think that'sthat's but that's part of the
psyche, right?
Because I always would load mytime I load down to to what's
(46:36):
the worst possible scenario thatcould happen.
SPEAKER_01 (46:39):
Yeah.
SPEAKER_00 (46:40):
Like not the minimal.
Like, what's the minimum theregulation says I need to do?
No, I'm what's the worst thingthat could happen?
That's what I'm protectingagainst.
Because you know one day itcould happen.
And in this country, yeah, thatthat could be jail.
SPEAKER_01 (46:57):
Yeah, yeah, or uh um worse.
SPEAKER_00 (47:00):
Right, yeah.
SPEAKER_01 (47:01):
So, man, we covered quite a bit.
As always, I'm I'm happy withall the things you're able to
inform people of and educate asto how they can get that
information through DAT.
Uh, I think you're a huge assetand also love your truck, they
can repeat.
So anytime anybody goes to thetruck show, check out the
Incroakes truck.
(47:21):
Uh, they can repeat, right?
SPEAKER_00 (47:23):
Yep, yeah.
We'll be at uh Mid AmericanTruck Show in a few days.
SPEAKER_01 (47:27):
Yeah, um, you're gonna be taking plenty of
pictures, I'm sure.
Yeah.
SPEAKER_00 (47:30):
Yep, yeah.
SPEAKER_01 (47:31):
What do you think about the uh I've seen another
uh you think any autonomoustrucks will show up there for
people to look at?
I hope not.
SPEAKER_00 (47:41):
Oh, there will be.
I'm I'm curious.
I I want to see if they'redriver assist.
You know, I I'm not I'm not soldon the whole autonomous thing,
but I do I do like the idea ofdriver assist.
Like so help me drive at four inthe morning.
You know, like you know, helpme.
Now we're talking.
Yeah, I think I think that's theapproach.
I don't like the whole idea oftake me out of the cab.
(48:02):
I don't that doesn't make sensebecause I just don't that
doesn't make sense to me.
Like I don't know.
SPEAKER_01 (48:08):
We're gonna find out, I guess.
SPEAKER_00 (48:10):
Yeah.
Yeah.
SPEAKER_01 (48:12):
Oh man, so as always, we really appreciate
your perspective, your datawithout the drama.
That's exactly what the industryneeds.
If anyone wants to check outthis episode or share with the
driver, uh we really appreciateit.
Leave a review, follow us as andalso if you uh check out DAT.
Um, we're gonna have a specialwhere all of these come out here
(48:34):
in April.
So um this is recorded a littleearlier, but uh we want to make
April a DAT month uh for thatdelivered.
So thank you so much, Dean.
And also, where can people reachyou?
Um, where's the best place tokeep all your updates and um
your posts?
What's the best place to look?
SPEAKER_00 (48:51):
Yeah, um you can catch the uh every 11 a.m.
Monday DAT freight and analyticsYouTube show.
That's where I do all my freightmarket analytics.
Uh, that's probably the best wayto get that.
Um, LinkedIn's the best place.
Um just shoot me a uh directmessage on LinkedIn.
You can uh send me your emailand I can get you on our weekly
uh market update email list.
That'll be the best way.
SPEAKER_01 (49:12):
Awesome, awesome.
Thank you so much again.
All right, well, appreciate youcoming on the show.
And uh that's delivered.
Hi everyone, welcome back to That's Delivered Again.
(00:02):
I'm your host, Truck and Ray,and we have a very special guest
to be back on with us again.
It's Dan Croak.
All month uh we've beenhighlighting leaders from DAT,
and today we've got one of ourfavorites.
Uh Dean brings something uniqueto trucking.
He connects with hard data, uhreal world experience,
economics, and human performancein a way that actually helps
(00:23):
drivers make better decisions,um, especially with uh all the
information that DAT gets.
Dean puts it out there in a waythat's easy to digest.
Um, Dean, it's always good tohave you back on the show.
Dean, how are you doing?
Yeah, good.
Always good to be with you, Ray.
Oh man, it's uh it's a great daywhen I can get some information
(00:46):
from Dean and learn about allthe wonderful ways that uh we
can do better in the freightindustry and the freight market.
So yeah, let's start with thebig picture, uh the real market
pulse.
Um if you had to describe thefreight market in the world
right now, uh, what would it be?
What would you say?
SPEAKER_00 (01:05):
Um volatile.
Like this is uh we're at thebottom of the freight market,
right?
Which is this is extraordinary.
Um we're seeing rate volatilitylike we haven't seen in years,
but lacking demand.
Like so this isn't a freightdemand story.
Normally, when you see this kindof volatility in the freight
(01:25):
market, so for those that, youknow, when I say freight market,
I don't mean sand and gravel anddiesel and gasoline and jet
fuel, right?
Or what you do, LTL parcels.
Like I'm talking about freight.
So freight of all kinds, um,steel, you know, aluminum
produce, um, things that moveover 250 miles, they're freight
(01:47):
of all kinds.
So um demand is fairly sluggishto flat, maybe down in some
sectors.
So demand is not really strong,so it's not like we're hauling
more freight.
Um, but it's a real capacitystory, right?
We've seen a lot of capacityexit the market in the last
little while.
Some of it's because ofregulatory pressure.
(02:07):
Most of it's though, is becausethe industry's just been losing
more capacity because it's beensuch a poor rate market.
But that's been going on for thelast four or five years.
So uh we've lost something like10% of the number of employees
in the trucking industry overthe last three years in
particular.
When you look at the number ofemployees on the Bureau of Labor
and Statistics in payroll, likewe've been losing employees on
(02:31):
the uh employee side of theindustry, that's not owner
operators.
So we've been losing capacity.
I think that's the big story.
Now, when you look at theregulatory side, like there's
been a lot of uh headlinesaround the illegality or the
illegal side of our industry,whether it be uh, you know, sham
operators, chameleon carriers,uh uh non-domicile city or
(02:54):
carriers, English languageproficiency, all those sorts of
headlines.
That's part of the story.
Uh that's added to some of thecapacity leave in the industry.
The bigger picture is that therehas been a structural reduction
in capacity for a variety ofreasons.
So what we've ended up with iswe're down here at the bottom of
this freight cycle.
And that kind of happened inOctober last year.
(03:18):
So we get to Thanksgiving and wehad three weeks of back-to-back
weather, which I'm sure you werecaught up in on the road.
Now, when you get toThanksgiving, which was at the
latest possible time in thecalendar, then you had four
weeks of shipping, you know,freight market, which was a lot
of e-commerce sort of into thoseend consumer markets, and then
(03:42):
you had three weeks of freightuh congestion because of extreme
weather, particularly in thenorthern tier.
You had a scenario where thefreight networks were kind of
snarled up because the trucksliterally couldn't move.
And so spot rates went throughthe roof, and then they kind of
came back a little bit, and thenwe had winter storm fern and
(04:03):
Guiana, and then freight ratestook off again.
And some people misunderstoodthat as a sign that the market
had flipped.
And what they really didn'tunderstand was that you know,
the spot markets 20% of theloads moved, and contract
markets about 80% of the loadsmoved.
Well, the spot market really wasa sign that you know X there was
(04:25):
a surge in demand over and abovewhat contract carriers could
move.
Contract carriers haven't beenadding more trucks because rates
haven't been that good.
So they didn't have a lot morecapacity to move extra loads.
Now, it wasn't like we weremoving more loads, it's just
that the rest of the market wasmoving slower because the
weather was so bad.
(04:45):
Capacity tightened becausetrucks were moving slower, not
because we had more freight.
unknown (04:50):
Right?
SPEAKER_00 (04:51):
This is what a lot of people struggle with.
But during the pandemic,remember we had rates went
through the roof during thepandemic.
Well, it wasn't because we weremoving more loads, it was
because the freight networkreduced to a crawl because there
were no employees on loadingdocks to load trucks because of
the pandemic.
So the freight network sloweddown.
So when the average speed ofyour network slows down, it
(05:12):
tightens capacity.
So what we've so when weatherhits, capacity tightens and
rates go up.
Now, so this this weatherscenario capacity tightened
because the miles got harder andslower and people did fewer of
them.
And that's one of the thingsthat carriers get caught with is
well, the rates go up, but ofcourse you do fewer miles
(05:34):
because the miles are harder tocome by in the in the bad
weather.
So even though you might beearning another, you know, two
or three cents per mile or 40cents a mile, you it it doesn't,
it's kind of it's a bit of awash at the end of the week if
you couldn't do more miles, oryou're held over because of poor
weather.
So we're kind of at the bottomof this freight market where
(05:54):
there's a lot of volatility inthe market where rates go up and
down because of weather, and uh,but demand is really flat.
And um, what we've seen in thelast couple of weeks is that the
market has cooled off again,predictably.
So we've seen seasonality emergein the dry band and reefer
market.
In fact, in the last two weeks,the refrigerated market's given
(06:14):
up half of the gains that itpicked up from the winter storm
burn.
So when when Fern hit, rateswent up 24 cents a mile in two
weeks.
The last two weeks they'ddropped 11 cents.
So, but I think the the bigstory is so if you said where do
we sit now at the end ofFebruary?
Well, we're about 25% higherthan where we were a year ago.
(06:35):
So rates have definitelyincreased compared to where they
were a year ago.
So there's a new flaw.
And I think that's important.
If you said, what's the bigtakeaway from everything I've
just waffled that well, there'sa new flaw in the freight
market.
And that means that rates arehigher.
Why are they higher?
There's fewer trucks.
So if demand is flat and thereisn't any more loads being moved
(06:57):
relative to last year, if ifdemand is flat, it just means
that there's fewer trucks tohaul the same number of loads.
So rates are sitting a littlebit higher in the dry van and
reefer sector compared to lastyear.
So it looks like there's been astructural removal of capacity
in the market, somewhere in theorder of four to five percent of
the number of trucks on the roadhave been removed.
(07:17):
And I think it's got a lot to dowith the market's just been
terrible.
And there's been a lot ofcarriers leave, go bankrupt,
close their doors.
I do think there's been a lot ofcarriers that have been caught
up in the non-domicile CDLbusiness.
Insurance companies havesqueezed them out, have you
know, asked the question aboutwho are your drivers?
Are they legitimate carriers?
Um, a lot of drivers, though,Ray, have just said, you know
(07:40):
what, we're not interested ingoing anywhere near the southern
border and being harassed, likeAmerican citizens.
So we've actually had them sayto us, like, we look at the
rates out of McAllen back to LosAngeles, and those drivers come
from California.
SPEAKER_02 (07:54):
Yeah.
SPEAKER_00 (07:54):
And like there's a lot of produce carriers that
come from California that areAmerican citizen drivers that
just won't leave California ifyou were being harassed.
So when you look at the backhaulrefrigerated lanes, that the
capacity is supplied byCalifornia, you can see the
rates have been up 40% sinceSeptember when I set up camp on
the southern border.
(08:16):
So whether it's Laredo orMcAllen, and remember that
Laredo and McCallan, half yourproduce out of Mexico comes
through those two ports.
Most of it's McCallan, actually.
And the Mexico produce seasonruns from now through May.
So what we're seeing is that thethere is a structural removal in
capacity.
There's a lot of volatility onregional freight lanes.
(08:37):
So the so whilst the nationalrates are up, there is a lot
more volatility though on otherfreight lanes.
So so then let's go to Florida,which is sort of now we're
starting the 2026 produceseason.
We just had Valentine's Day.
Uh, spot rates were up out ofFlorida ahead of Valentine's
Day, where 90% of your freshflowers come from into Miami.
(09:00):
And uh spot rates are up in theorder of 40% in the week, you
know, leading up to Valentine'sDay for produce loads and refill
loads out of uh Miami.
Well, they crashed by as muchlast week, after Valentine's
Day, because the demanddisappeared.
So uh again, that's nosurpriser.
That shouldn't surprise anybody,but why did they go up so much?
(09:22):
Why were carriers getting paid athousand to fifteen hundred
dollars more per refrigeratedload out of Miami than a year
ago?
Like that's extraordinary.
Well, the reason is, and again,I'm I can't be 100% certain, but
the fact that ICE and DHSturned, well DHS in particular,
(09:43):
turned every scale house into animmigration enforcement center
in September last year inFlorida has a lot to do with
that.
Because anecdotally, we hadcarriers tell us we're just not
interested in going deep intoFlorida because there's only
certain roads in and out,Florida.
If your paperwork's not squeakyclean or you're a minority and
you're worried about beingtargeted, drivers were telling
(10:04):
us that they were fearful ofgoing anywhere near Florida.
And again, we had we hadCalifornia carriers rejecting
loads that were going toFlorida, out of California.
So so again, I sort of this I'myou could go back and search any
of those shows that I've doneback in January, and I said,
we're we're expecting to see alot of volatility in Florida
when produce season starts.
(10:26):
And here was one of the firstsigns.
Now, the cold weather fromwinter storm fern slowed down
berry season, strawberryseason's been damaged, uh,
blueberry season's been damaged.
So produce volumes are behindabout 31% year to date in
Florida right now.
So we're not seeing any of thatnow.
So I think the the capacity, thevolatility is going to be hit
(10:49):
the most in the refrigeratedproduce sector this year.
That's where I think the realstory is going to be.
Because I think the the pressurefrom the regulatory side has
been mostly in the reefersector, because I think that's
where a lot of our minoritytruckers have ended up, the ones
that are being targeted themost.
(11:09):
And I think that's where we'regoing to see the big story this
year is a lot of volatility isgoing to be in the refrigerated
sector when produce seasonreally starts.
Um, flatbed, it's doing what italways does.
Flatbed's having a wonderfulyear, largely because of the AI
data center boom.
Anything to do with data centerconstruction in the middle of
nowhere where there's a craneand permits and a big deadhead
(11:31):
component on the back end of it.
Flatbed carriers are having awonderful season.
But again, flatbed, we'reheading into building
construction, planting, nursery,farming, machinery import
season, which peaks in March.
And uh flatbed carriers areflatbed rates are up in the
order of about 15% year overyear.
So they're having another greatyear.
(11:51):
And um, but again, that's prettymuch on par with what flatbed
rates always do.
They always go up from Decemberthrough through March, April,
May, and then they kind of cooloff.
So it there's a the you know,dry band reefer behave pretty
much the same.
Flatbed rates kind of go up andthen flat uh then uh then their
(12:12):
plateau.
But I think the the real storyabout the freight market is
rates are observably higher thanwhere they were a year ago, and
that's because capacity has leftthe market.
But what I think I'll pause herebecause what it means is that
for anybody in this market, whenwe get to the bottom of this
market, which is when capacityhas largely exited the market
(12:34):
and we're at at a point ofequilibrium, where in very
simple terms the number of loadsequals the number of trucks,
whenever there's a surge infreight demand, rates will
skyrocket.
So there's that volatility.
So think about Mother's Day, uh,July 4, all those sort of
seasonal events, you'll see veryfew trucks able to handle that
(12:58):
surge in demand.
So I think this the story ofthis year will be um constrained
capacity meets, you know, sortof stabilizing freight demand.
And it just means that RoadCheck Week in particular this
year that's focusing on ELDs, Ithink you'll see a lot more
carriers take time off this yearbecause of the ELD focus.
And you'll see rates absolutelygo through the roof in that
(13:20):
10-day period, without doubt.
SPEAKER_01 (13:22):
Nice.
Awesome, man.
You you know how to cover it.
SPEAKER_00 (13:27):
Yeah, it's a big summary.
Sorry it takes so long to dothat.
SPEAKER_01 (13:30):
But no, everybody that's listening to Kroke here
from DAT.
I mean, you guys have all thedata and information.
Um, talking about data centers.
I mean, I'm sure you guys arealso staying prepared with all
the changes that are comingthrough.
What's um what do you thinkthings are gonna do with uh
possibly in the future withtariffs?
Um, there are people wonderingwhat that's gonna do to change.
(13:52):
Uh, I guess it's maybe too soonto know.
Um recording this.
So um what would you say?
SPEAKER_00 (13:58):
Probably probably by the time maybe in a few days
from when this airs, it it couldchange.
It could change by uh, you know,in a week's time.
Uh uh by the time um I think Ithink global trade's being
rewritten in real time.
I think that's the point.
But I do think, Ray, a lot ofthis is already baked in.
(14:19):
The uh the betting marketsalready had factored in that the
administration would lose this.
So I think a lot of shippers hadalready figured out that that
the administration was going tolose this and that we were going
to see um things revert back towhere they were.
So I think um I I think the uhyou know the net change of all
(14:40):
of this, the the the SupremeCourt ruling is that the global
shift to a 15% tariff, whichagain we didn't see coming, well
maybe we should have, um theYale budget lab estimates that
the change reduces the overalleffective of US tariffs by only
about 2%.
So the fact that all of thetariffs were made uh considered
(15:02):
illegal, the new 15% globaltariff effectively reduces UF
cap US tariffs by only 2%, butit varies by tariff.
So a 5% reduction for China.
So that's what that's what itmeans for China and Vietnam, no
change on the EU, 5% increasefor the UK, big reduction for
Brazil, down from 40% to 15%.
(15:24):
So it's a country by country uhchange, but I don't know, I
think there's going to be a waitand see approach.
I think that a lot of shippershave uh seen um, you know, the
whipsawing effect of the lastyear has made people a lot more
cautious.
(15:45):
I think shippers and carriersare going to be more cautious on
any major inventory bills givenpast tariff policy volatility.
Um, I do think we're going tosee um some near-term import
surges and bonded warehouseactivity.
I do suspect there's been a lotof freight sitting in bonded
warehouses around the countrywaiting to move.
And of course, the tariff andimport duties will be triggered
(16:07):
once as soon as they move out ofthat bonded warehouse.
So I think that could be ascenario, particularly along the
southern border and some ofthose big bonded warehouse
markets that we have around thecountry.
Um, so you know, you've got abunch down on Laredo, you've got
some around Miami, uh, Memphis,Dallas, Port Worth, big ones
around Chicago, Joliet, you'vegot a bunch around the southern
(16:28):
border, around uh Otta Mesa, um,you know, Long Beach, Oakland,
Seattle, Tacoma, New York, ofcourse.
So I think there's some bigwarehouse markets that could see
some dry van freight flood outof those markets.
As to whether it makes a bigimpact on the national freight
market, I don't think so.
But again, it all comes back toconsumer demand.
(16:49):
Like, are you and I going to buymore things?
That's going to fundamentallymean you're going to have more
LTL freight in the back of your28-foot pups tonight or your
53-foot vans.
Uh, I don't know.
I that's the real story.
I think that we're just notseeing anything that says we've
got more demand that's going totrigger more loads on trucks.
(17:09):
If anything, it creates moreuncertainty, which means more
doubt.
Because that was the real storylast year.
Was when Liberation Day camearound, everyone hit the pause
button and said, hang on, weneed to wait and see.
Well, what Friday told us was weneed to wait and see again.
SPEAKER_01 (17:27):
Yeah, patience.
SPEAKER_00 (17:28):
So I think, yeah, I think I think a lot of people
are going to say now, okay, weneed to wait and see how this
plays out.
And I think some of our tradingpartners have said, okay, if
this is illegal and we can get arefund on the you know tariffs
we've paid, we need to let thisyou know play its course.
I just don't think there'll be afundamental increase in
truckload demand to the levelpeople are you know hoping for.
SPEAKER_01 (17:51):
So yeah, so if it does spike, just still be
patient and wait it out.
Is that some of the mistakespeople are you're seeing?
Uh carriers, uh, once they seethe headlines, they see the
trends, uh what would you say tothem uh for you know not to make
this mistake or to repeat amistake?
SPEAKER_00 (18:10):
Yeah, I'd just say keep your powder dry.
Like, you know, don't be don'tget too caught up in the
headlines.
You know, the internet rushes tofill a vacuum with with
headlines, and uh and and we allwant rates to improve.
Now, we started the segmenttalking about rates are up 25%
year over year.
The rub there is that higherrates is going to attract
(18:32):
capacity back into the market.
People are gonna buy trucks andjoin the market.
Well, isn't that isn't that acrazy scenario?
You've just gone through a yearwhere everyone was bellyaching
about all these sham carriers inthe market that were driving
rates down.
Well, rates are going up now,which everyone wanted.
Well, that means that in a freemarket like this, people are
(18:54):
gonna go out and buy trucks andjoin the market again.
Now, that's a problem if demandisn't there.
So I would say be very carefulabout what you wish for and
don't get caught up in theheadlines.
I would just say to people,ignore the headlines and just
worry about your own backyard.
Like control what you can.
Like that's that's old advice.
(19:14):
That's not new advice.
Like control, worry about thethings you can control.
Because this isn't a time to begetting too caught up in the
headlines because we still don'thave any fundamental signs that
demand for truckload tonnage isstable enough that we can say
the market is improving.
Right now, so rates are up 25%year over year.
(19:35):
We had we've seen some capacityleave, but the market hasn't
flipped.
Now, I look at one data point Iwatched that's absolutely
critical for truckload carrierswatching is the ISM Purchasing
Managers Index, which comes outon the second or third of each
month.
Now, January came out, it was upfor the first time in almost a
year.
So the ISM PMI has a very strongpositive correlation to the
(19:58):
direction of dry ban rates.
So it's it comes out next week.
So now I I said it, I said backin January, if we see three
months of positive uh movement,so it's a it's a diffusion
index.
So it's anything above 50 meansthe economy is can expanding.
Anything below 50, it's it'scontracting.
(20:19):
So it's been below 50 for bestpart of last year.
Well, it was at 52.6 in January.
So if it's above 50 in Februaryand above 50 in March, and it's
in expansion territory, and neworders, which are new orders at
manufacturers, and new ordersmean loads on trucks eventually.
So all that, you know, domesticmanufacturing is sort of the
(20:40):
thing that underpins thetrucking industry.
It puts loads in the back ofyour trailer, it puts loads on
the back of trucks on the DATnetwork.
Those domestic manufacturingnumbers are absolutely critical
to more demand and then peoplebuying more trucks and large
truckload carriers like Wernerand Swift and Schneider ordering
(21:01):
more new trucks, right, frommanufacturers.
So all those demand isabsolutely critical, but we need
a couple of months of reallypositive indicators to say,
okay, now we've got something.
The market's on the way toimproving.
Well, the Supreme Court rulingand then 15% global tariffs
(21:21):
might have just pulled the airout of that.
We'll have to see what happensnow.
It's exactly what happened lastApril.
Like the market was improving inJanuary, February, March last
year.
There is no question the freightmarket was improving because all
the numbers were heading up.
And then the trade war startedand the market tanked.
(21:43):
Well, we've just had one monthof really positive numbers, and
we're waiting for February todrop shortly.
And now we had the Supreme Courtruling, and now a 15% global
tariff, and now moreuncertainty.
We may have another repeat oflast year on our hands.
I just don't know.
No, so it's kind of a wait andsee attitude.
I would be if my advice tocarriers would be this is still
(22:05):
a cost control market, likecontrolling your costs and and
being being very cautious is theabsolute name of the game.
Because even though rates are upand your margins may be
expanding, there's there's stillno certainty that freight demand
that underpins everything iswe're really on solid footing
just yet.
SPEAKER_01 (22:25):
Wow.
Yeah, that's beautifully said.
I think uh a lot of people canbenefit from that.
What would you say uh for thehotshot market?
A lot of people get into the boxtrucks and the smaller uh
vehicles because you don't haveto have the same type of
requirements, you know, maybeclass B or less.
Um what would you say about thatindustry?
SPEAKER_00 (22:44):
Yeah, I think there's opportunity there.
I think there's always beenopportunity.
That's one sector that has stuckduring the entire pandemic.
I think there's a lot ofopportunity, particularly when
rates start to go up.
I think there's an opportunityfor partloads at more attractive
rates.
I think that's gonna be asegment that's gonna hold.
Because I think there's, youknow, finding ways to move
(23:06):
freight um partloads at you knowlower costs per mile is probably
gonna be a segment that couldwin when rates start to rise.
I'm not an expert in the hotshot market, but I that's it,
it's it's one segment that Ihave seen do exceptionally well
during the entire pandemic.
So there seems to be a shiftfrom on the shipper side to part
(23:31):
loads.
So we've seen in our business,and it's largely been driven by
shippers' lack of willingness tohave higher levels of inventory
to fill full trailer loads.
SPEAKER_01 (23:41):
Yeah, yeah.
SPEAKER_00 (23:42):
So it means that they're they're they're when the
orders come in, they're lesslikely to put you know, weight
to fill a van, a dry van,they're shipping it out in into
hot shot segments rather thanwaiting for a 53-foot dry van.
So I think that's a segment thathas stuck and is likely to
continue.
And I think there's some realcost advantages for shippers on
(24:04):
that front.
So I think it's a segment that'sgoing to grow.
I I think on the demand side,there is there is uh still good
times ahead for that segment.
SPEAKER_01 (24:12):
Yeah, I mean, it's definitely a great time to think
about planning if uh if anythingfor the shipper, or also if you
are a person who's trying to dosomething different.
SPEAKER_00 (24:20):
Especially while diesel diesel stays relatively
low compared to where it's been,like lower.
I mean, still it's stillfavorable.
Like it's we've just seen dieselprices relatively um low
compared to where they were ayear ago.
Like so I don't see headwindsthere on the diesel front for
that segment.
So I think that's that's anotherpositive.
SPEAKER_01 (24:39):
Yeah, I think something that's something maybe
that will be more consistent.
Um, who knows how I got there?
Um, there'd be a lot ofspeculation, but uh maybe for
the next three years um we canexpect that at least.
Yeah.
Um what about the human factoruh performance when it comes to
sleep and efficiency?
I know you're an expert on thatas well.
(24:59):
We need to get your viewpoint onthat.
Um I mean, you got the ELD.
Um, there's some talk about themmaking some changes there.
Uh, what would you say for forthe interviews out there that
are, you know, maybe they'refighting burnout or maybe
they're looking for relief.
Yeah.
SPEAKER_00 (25:16):
Um talk of flexibility.
I see a lot of headlines aroundum people going back to paper
logs.
Um I think it's wishfulthinking.
I I do see a big push by theFMCSA to go towards get away
from self-certification.
So I think that's a really goodmove.
I think there's there's been abig problem around ELDs that are
(25:38):
um the self-certification modelhas has always been a problem in
my mind.
It's allowed a lot of companiesto come in and create these uh
software packages where they canum essentially allow carriers to
uh reset their hours everynight, which is kind of crazy,
right?
I don't know if I I listened toa large carrier CEO at a
(26:00):
conference last week in Miamisay that they're overnight uh
overnight resets.
And I said, What do you meanovernight resets?
And he said, Well, these areinter these are companies that
are international providers ofELDs and they're allowing
long-distance truckers to resettheir 60 and 70 every night.
Which I thought, that's crazy.
Like it's so it's not a 34-hourreset every week, and they said,
(26:22):
no, they're doing it everynight.
So it's it's kind of like thisjailbroke ELD concept where you
could run 4,000 miles physical,but only record 2,500 on your
ELD device.
unknown (26:33):
Wow.
SPEAKER_00 (26:33):
So it's a bit like an electronic paper log, if you
know what I mean.
SPEAKER_02 (26:36):
Yeah.
SPEAKER_00 (26:37):
Like so, so there's there's all of these carriers
out there that have been runningthese illegal ELD devices
running more miles, creatingmore capacity than and but
recording a much lower level ofhours and miles on their ELD
device.
And the and the FMCSA has beengetting rid of them on their
(26:59):
register.
You can see them, you can seethe company names on their on
the FMCSA website.
So that's why RoadCheck Week onMay the 12th to 14th is focusing
on ELDs this time around.
So I think there's a big focuson ELDs.
Now I think carriers, once theykick these companies off, they
go to paper logs.
And um so there's a there's thatside of it.
(27:20):
So I don't know how manycarriers are going to get caught
up in that side of it.
That's a concern.
But I think your broaderquestion is forget all that,
forget all the ELDs and andhuman performance.
The one thing I would say toyou, forget the compliance and
the ELD side of it.
The one thing that you alwaysneed to do, regardless of all
(27:40):
that, is just start work at thesame time every day.
Like it's a simple formula.
Doesn't matter how many hoursyou drive or whatever you do,
you know that from yourschedule.
SPEAKER_01 (27:49):
Yeah, you meant that last time, too.
SPEAKER_00 (27:51):
Yeah, you stay.
Um the human brain is really,really simple when it comes to
the sleep wake cycle.
It's got a the the biggestimportant uh input is light.
Like so our sleep-wake cycle isset by the rising and setting of
the sun.
So uh blue light in particularwithin the invisible light
spectrum is the thing thatreally starts your your uh sleep
(28:12):
wake cycle every day.
So if you're not starting workat the same time every day, your
sleep cycle is disrupted.
So an inconsistent start timemeans your sleep cycle is
disrupted.
And that's what drives safety inthe wrong direction every single
day.
So I would say to anyone,regardless of what how many
(28:32):
hours you work or where youdrive, or whether you're a hot
shot or a long distance truck oran LTL or a heavy hauler, the
one thing I would say to you,and and so this is someone
that's been in trucking for 48years, I would say to you, start
work at the same time every day,become a creature of habit.
No matter so design yourschedule, your pickups, your
delivery windows around when youget out of bed every day, but
(28:56):
make it the same time every day.
Become a creature of habit anddon't negotiate on it because
you will run better, you'll feelbetter, you'll be healthier,
you'll eat better.
It'll just power all of thosegood decisions you need to make
every day.
Because, hey, Ray, withoutsleep, we all behave like
two-year-olds.
We all know that, right?
SPEAKER_01 (29:14):
Yeah.
Yeah, yeah.
It comes out on their own too.
Don't we?
Wow, what's going on?
So you think biocapablescheduling is gaining any uh
traction at all for companieslike that?
SPEAKER_00 (29:25):
I don't think so.
You know, biocompatiblescheduling is it's um I'm a
learn voice when it comes tothis.
I think so.
Biocompatible scheduling wasvery popular during the paper
log era because that's what weall did.
We just didn't call itbiocompatible scheduling.
We just slept when we were tiredand drove when we were awake.
That's what it was called.
We just slept according to ourbiology.
(29:47):
Now, now it's got a fancy titlenow because we all know about
sleep science, but heck, go inand try and put in a
biocompatible schedule into atrucking company and get them to
design a schedule around adriver's sleep pattern and get
them to book appointments with ashipper or a receiver around
when a driver wants to sleep andsee how long that conversation
lasts.
(30:08):
They laugh at you.
But but if you actually get itto work, you would not believe
the difference it makes.
And it and it works.
Like it's not like you're doingless loads or less miles, you're
just doing them differently.
Like it's not complicated.
With all the technology we'vegot today, it's actually much
easier to do.
It just requires people to havethe right level of imagination
(30:28):
and commitment.
SPEAKER_01 (30:30):
Yeah, I mean, there's a there's a lot of uh
daytime sleepiness, there's alot of people that take uh
medicine to go to sleep.
And uh who knows what thelong-term effects are.
You know, you're gonna be ableto do it.
SPEAKER_00 (30:41):
Well, a lot of it's too with light, Ray.
You mean you talk about uhwinter time, like uh excessive
daytime sleepiness is a symptomof um, you know, it's a sleep
apnea symptom, but also inwinter when you get lot less of
less levels of light, you haveum you know, you have that sleep
disorder that comes from lack ofsunlight.
(31:02):
Yeah so it's a form ofdepression that you get.
So there's light is a reallyimportant thing to to um to you
know stay in touch with.
Um sleep doesn't happen byaccident.
Like I think that's the thingyou've got to focus on as a
driver.
It's not a one-size-fits-all,everybody's got to work harder
at this as they get older.
Um, light is a really importantthing.
(31:24):
So we tend to yeah.
SPEAKER_01 (31:27):
I go to Texas and the sun hits the windshield, and
I'm like, we're gonna go, man,this is nice.
You know, it's not gonna comeback to the Midwest.
And yeah, like you're up innorth uh northeastern part
there.
And I mean, man, yeah, yeah.
The weather makes a hugedifference on your morale and
just everything.
SPEAKER_00 (31:44):
Well, it's called SAD, right?
Seasonal affective disorder.
So that's what people innorthern latitudes or up in
Alaska get affected with.
That's what it's called, sad,and it's uh it's a form of
depression from lack of light.
So there's all sorts of lighttherapy you can use to
supplement, you know, light orblue light in particular, but
it's um you know, it's thereverse in summer.
(32:05):
Like so, you know, when you'vegot 15 hours of sunlight, um,
the sleep gate doesn't open tilllate at night because you've got
so much light.
Your sunset's not till nine atnight.
Yeah, your brain's not gettingthe signal at nights here.
And that's why truck accidentsand car accidents go up in
summer.
You know, you would think, oh,there's less accidents in
summer.
Well, no, you got less sleep.
(32:27):
So you had more accidents.
SPEAKER_01 (32:28):
So it's the insurance company, man, because
it's uh they had a bad stormcome through here and it was
dry.
And then when I got back, butthere were tons of semis that I
think they just leave in theditch and come back later.
Um yeah, because it's I think itpassed six um just in a short
period of time in one state.
(32:50):
And uh it's like, man, that wastwo days ago.
SPEAKER_00 (32:54):
Yeah.
Yeah, it's pretty wild what goeson in winter.
Um this is an amazing countryfor weather.
It's extreme.
SPEAKER_01 (33:04):
Yeah, tell me about that.
Um, I know you come from adifferent country, and that is
about the same size as the as uhUnited States, but you know,
it's a total climate.
SPEAKER_00 (33:14):
You have no jet stream, no gulf, no gulf stream,
you have no uh it's nothing.
Like it's flat and you have umno topography, no Sierras, no
Rocky Mountains, so you have umit's one-dimensional weather.
It's just hot and dry.
SPEAKER_01 (33:28):
Really?
Yeah.
Because I see a lot of um likethe desert like outback
backwoods, I call them out backin Australia.
But uh yeah, it looks like whatI would see in Colorado,
Wyoming.
SPEAKER_00 (33:43):
So if you go from um if you go from Kilgore in Texas
to Albuquerque, you know thatthat terrain, right?
You go from the pine trees inKilgore to the desert in uh uh
Albuquerque, that's the same asgoing from Sydney to Perth in
Australia.
Really?
That's like that's that three.
So what's that?
(34:03):
Is that I don't know how manymiles that is from Kilgore to
Albuquerque, but that's that'sthe 3200 miles across Australia.
And in between though, isnothing.
Like so, so in a truck from youknow Sydney to Perth in
Australia, it's uh used to do itwith express, it was 43 hours.
So we do it in express 43 hours.
(34:26):
Um it's 4200 kilometers.
I can't remember what that is inmiles, but um once you once you
get out outside of the metroarea, there's nothing.
Like so, there's a couple oftruck stops on the way, but it's
a lot of straight road nothingand no one to call.
Like, so you're not callinganybody for a flat tire.
So we've got four tires underthe trailer, and like we're
(34:46):
changing tires if we blow one,and and you got six tanks of
fuel, so you've got seven, eighthundred gallons, you've got
belly tanks, uh diesel.
So like you're um it's asurvival game.
Like, so you're not like it's awhole different deal in the when
you talk about the outback, likeit's a it's like a really
inhospitable area if you breakdown.
SPEAKER_01 (35:07):
Yeah.
SPEAKER_00 (35:08):
But but there's lots of but there's not lots, there's
other truckers around.
So it's like trucking's a littlebit different.
You never you never not pull upif someone's broken down.
So what's the golden rule?
You never, ever drive pastsomeone that's broken down
because it could be youtomorrow.
So and we're all we're allpretty handy at fixing things.
(35:30):
Like so the you know, the ruleis you fix what you break.
Um the other rule is you ringdispatch from a long way away in
the morning.
SPEAKER_01 (35:40):
No pens.
SPEAKER_00 (35:41):
You've got to be able to you've got to be able to
make a really good mile.
SPEAKER_01 (35:44):
Like you don't have anybody just showing up in a
pickup truck.
SPEAKER_00 (35:48):
So yeah, we we have we carry iron tools, like so.
We have toolboxes, like we carrytools, tool sets.
Like I still have a like I ha inmy Peterbelt, I've got tools,
like I got four toolboxes.
I can mine's a show truck.
SPEAKER_01 (36:02):
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
SPEAKER_00 (36:03):
I can call anybody to fix my truck anywhere, but I
have four toolboxes.
Right?
I have more spare parts under mytruck just in case.
It's a it's a habit.
Nice.
Like I just fix stuff.
So so yeah, trucking in theOutback is very different.
But again, it's it's like Ithink that's how it should be.
Like I think I think that's howyou I when I take the profession
(36:25):
seriously.
I I think it's a it's aprofession.
I mean, I think that's how itshould be.
Like you should take this jobseriously.
But um I don't say that gliblybecause this industry can spit
you up and spit you out reallyquickly if you don't take it
seriously.
You you know what it's likeevery night when you're out
there.
You're gonna take your eye offthe wheel for a second and it
(36:46):
can destroy you.
So not even that's just thephysical driving part.
Then there's the mental andhealth aspect if you don't take
it seriously.
I mean, this is a hard job, it'sa hard industry.
SPEAKER_01 (36:56):
Yeah, sleep after a while.
SPEAKER_00 (36:58):
You gotta take it seriously, yeah.
SPEAKER_01 (37:00):
You gotta really pay attention.
SPEAKER_00 (37:01):
Um great industry, like wonderful industry.
I love the people.
I've been involved in it all mylife.
Like it's a really goodindustry.
Yeah.
SPEAKER_01 (37:11):
Especially you guys over there at DAT, man.
I mean, I really love the wayyou guys present yourself, the
way you put things out there forpeople to understand, and the
knowledge that you guys are ableto obtain.
I mean, I mean, that's a lot ofdata that you guys are sifting
through.
SPEAKER_00 (37:24):
I mean, we've got a trillion trillion dollars worth
of rate data that's we'veamassed over the, you know, like
we were been around 47 years,but our rate data set's probably
spanning about 15 years now.
So it represents the you know,our average rates are a really
good starting point for anyonetrying to figure out what's the
rate on a lane.
Like it's a great startingpoint.
It's like no one's hauling ratesat$2.48 a mile today, but that's
(37:47):
a starting point.
If that's the average rate on adry van nationally, that's a
great starting point.
Or if you want to know what alane is, that's the place you
start your negotiation.
SPEAKER_01 (37:56):
So what would you say to someone that is just
looking at Facebook groups andnot really paying for a load
board?
SPEAKER_00 (38:02):
Or like be very careful.
They people could be trying tomisdirect you.
Like that's like someone at atruck stop telling you what a
rate is.
They could be trying to tell youwhat the rate is for the wrong
reasons.
Be very careful with that.
SPEAKER_01 (38:15):
Nice, nicely said.
SPEAKER_00 (38:17):
So just because it's on the internet doesn't mean
it's true.
SPEAKER_01 (38:19):
Right.
Yeah, just because someoneprints it.
So that's why I like theseinterviews also, is that we can
talk about it a little longerversus just a comment here and
there.
And um, and looking ahead, um,maybe over the remaining part of
the year, what are some earlyindicators you're watching more
closely?
Um, maybe like a catalyst thatcould accelerate recovery.
(38:40):
What would you say?
SPEAKER_00 (38:41):
Uh so the just to recap, the ISM PMI that we
talked about.
So next week's next Tuesday whenthe Institute of Supply
Management PMI comes out, I'mwatching two things.
If it's the headline number isabove 50, and if the new orders
number in particular is above 50and higher than what it was last
month, there are two numbers I'mwatching next that really
(39:03):
importantly.
Um, the next the next data pointI'm really watching is what
happens when um produce startsrunning out of Salinas,
California.
So when the transition happensfrom Yuma Um to Salinas, that's
an so humor is where iceberglettuce gets uh produced during
(39:25):
winter, it's the winter saladbowl.
Transition happens back toSalinas, that becomes the summer
salad bowl.
That's where you start to seemost of your produce,
strawberries, uh all of those,like so most of our produce is
going to come from Californiaover the summer.
Those volumes really start tomove in March or April, probably
late March.
(39:46):
What I'm really watching for isto see what happens with
refrigerated rates.
Um, capacity's been tight, butrates haven't accelerated yet.
Outbound California.
They're up about 10% compared tolast year.
Now, so if capacity has reallyexited the market, it'll start
to show in about three or fourweeks in California for outbound
(40:07):
produce.
If that's the case, that sets upa scenario where dry band rates
will also rise throughout therest of the year.
Because the because reeferrates, because the dry band
carriers, sorry, the reefercarriers that are under dry band
loads will switch back to thereefer market and that'll
tighten the dry band market.
(40:29):
That's that's why the two trackeach other.
So I think that's what I'mwatching for is the start of
produce season out ofCalifornia, if that provides any
lift in the market.
So there that's the first tell.
That's the second thing I'mreally watching for.
And I think we'll start to seeum we we may see a little bit
(40:50):
more lift on some of the portmarkets.
Um I'm watching for Californiato have a bit of a rebound in
their imports, maybe an earlypeak season.
We could see some of that if uhChina starts to send a few more
imports back in um in April.
So I'm watching some of that toto see.
So there that that's the I thinkthe produce season is going to
be the biggest tell, Ray.
SPEAKER_01 (41:11):
All right.
So personally, to close, uh,what's some things that keep you
optimistic about trucking uhthat you can share with people
out there to keep their headsup?
SPEAKER_00 (41:20):
Um truck shows.
I think truck shows are alwaysthe tell, right?
How many people go to truckshows?
The fact that Mid-America's in31 days or 30 days, um, it tells
me people are still makingmoney, they still care, there's
still the passion for theindustry.
Um there's a lot of doom andgloom in the industry if you
live on the internet.
(41:41):
There's a lot of rage baiting,there's a lot of negative
comments on Facebook.
Um, but hey, when I go to truckshows and I meet the backbone of
the country, the industry, theold school truckers, it gives me
hope that the industry isaligned well and people are
still making money, and thatthere's a lot of people that are
doing exceptionally well.
So truck show seasons are isweeks away, and that's what I
(42:05):
look forward to because that'swhat keeps me going.
Like it's sort of the it's thekind of that ray of sunshine
that's out there, you know, inin what can be a very dark,
gloomy industry.
SPEAKER_01 (42:17):
Wow.
I mean, what's something thatpeople when they look at the
industry uh that we get rightthat other people don't
understand?
What would you say to that?
SPEAKER_00 (42:28):
Uh what do we get right?
Um we yeah, we we get stuffdone.
Like we I think we do it with awe we do it without any fuss.
I mean, we we just get stuffdelivered.
Um we do it, we do it in a waythat we make it look so easy
(42:51):
that most people don't evennotice.
That's that's the part I I a lotof truckers think, oh that's
there's nothing to that.
Like, and I think no, there is alot to doing what you just did.
Like do you running an LTL turnat night?
There's an enormous amount ofrisk in doing what you do.
I know it.
Like I know what you fight everynight.
SPEAKER_01 (43:11):
Well, now I'm probably uh doing the sleeper
too, or I'm sleeping in the backwhile someone else drives.
SPEAKER_00 (43:16):
Oh, yeah, even harder, even harder.
So yeah, that's tough, man.
That's tough.
So so doing so I I think that'sthe part that most people don't
understand is that we just wemake you know, we deliver, we
carry the economy one load at atime, and I think that's the
part most people don'tunderstand is um we make it look
(43:38):
so effortless, yet it goesunnoticed.
And I think that's the to me,that's the part that makes us so
special.
SPEAKER_01 (43:46):
That's awesome.
Beautifully said.
Um we'll speak on that too.
I mean, that's delivered, youknow.
That's why I came up with thename.
Yeah, it's just that's the bestpart when you when you get it
delivered.
That's it's the final product.
You know, you don't have to sayanything.
There it is.
SPEAKER_00 (44:00):
Well it's a lot of pride.
I thought I think there's anenormous amount of pride.
People say, Why did you lovetrucking?
I said, I always take a lot ofpride in tying down a load on a
flatbed, delivering itundamaged, not wet, and in one
piece.
Like there's a that takes a lotof skill on terrible roads, mind
you.
Like wow, but turning up on timewith it in one place, not
(44:20):
damaged.
Like I used to take enormouspride in that.
SPEAKER_01 (44:23):
That's great.
SPEAKER_00 (44:24):
It's crazy.
Like people think, are you nuts?
Yeah, I used to love that.
SPEAKER_01 (44:30):
I mean, I think that's great.
Um especially the part where yousay it's dry.
I mean, those tarps doubletarped if you don't do it right,
I mean it can really take awayand even probably hurt somebody
too, because if they fly off,they'll cover entire cars and
stuff.
SPEAKER_00 (44:43):
So I saw a post the other day, Adam Wingfield, on
LinkedIn, and someone wastalking about straps on loads of
steel.
And I said, I would never haul aload of steel with straps.
I don't care if the ship hassaid no chains.
I'm chaining that load like youwouldn't pull that.
I'm putting every chain I've goton it.
I don't care about the rulesabout how many chains per every
10 feet.
I'm putting as many chains onthat thing as I can.
(45:05):
I don't care.
I'm putting every chain I've gotout of that toolbox.
Every chain.
I would never haul a load ofsteel with straps.
I don't care what you say.
That stuff moves like youwouldn't believe.
And uh minimum the minimalistapproach doesn't work for me
with steel.
And and and and this post wasabout a shipper saying you can't
(45:28):
use chains because it'll scratchthe steel.
And I'm thinking about it.
No, no, no, no, no, no, no.
That shipper doesn't understandhow steel moves because you
can't get enough bite on Ibeams.
I don't care.
You just they don't know howfreight moves under a load.
So um anyway, just I mean,that's just a personal opinion,
but I think there's a lot to umhandling freight.
(45:50):
There's and I think the onlything that makes it not a big
deal in this country is theroads are so good.
We just don't your roads, theroads here, right, are so good
that you don't need the level ofload securement that other
countries do.
SPEAKER_01 (46:07):
Oh I can only I can't there.
Wow, um I'm spoiled because uhyeah, I'm back to the bigger.
I think we are here.
SPEAKER_00 (46:14):
I think we are here, yeah, because you don't have the
soft shoulders and single-laneblacktop that I come from.
Um where you've got to chainthat bad boy down where there's
everything you've got, chain itwithin an inch of its life, so
it's not moving sideways orforward and back.
So I just but I think that'sthat's but that's part of the
psyche, right?
Because I always would load mytime I load down to to what's
(46:36):
the worst possible scenario thatcould happen.
SPEAKER_01 (46:39):
Yeah.
SPEAKER_00 (46:40):
Like not the minimal.
Like, what's the minimum theregulation says I need to do?
No, I'm what's the worst thingthat could happen?
That's what I'm protectingagainst.
Because you know one day itcould happen.
And in this country, yeah, thatthat could be jail.
SPEAKER_01 (46:57):
Yeah, yeah, or uh um worse.
SPEAKER_00 (47:00):
Right, yeah.
SPEAKER_01 (47:01):
So, man, we covered quite a bit.
As always, I'm I'm happy withall the things you're able to
inform people of and educate asto how they can get that
information through DAT.
Uh, I think you're a huge assetand also love your truck, they
can repeat.
So anytime anybody goes to thetruck show, check out the
Incroakes truck.
(47:21):
Uh, they can repeat, right?
SPEAKER_00 (47:23):
Yep, yeah.
We'll be at uh Mid AmericanTruck Show in a few days.
SPEAKER_01 (47:27):
Yeah, um, you're gonna be taking plenty of
pictures, I'm sure.
Yeah.
SPEAKER_00 (47:30):
Yep, yeah.
SPEAKER_01 (47:31):
What do you think about the uh I've seen another
uh you think any autonomoustrucks will show up there for
people to look at?
I hope not.
SPEAKER_00 (47:41):
Oh, there will be.
I'm I'm curious.
I I want to see if they'redriver assist.
You know, I I'm not I'm not soldon the whole autonomous thing,
but I do I do like the idea ofdriver assist.
Like so help me drive at four inthe morning.
You know, like you know, helpme.
Now we're talking.
Yeah, I think I think that's theapproach.
I don't like the whole idea oftake me out of the cab.
(48:02):
I don't that doesn't make sensebecause I just don't that
doesn't make sense to me.
Like I don't know.
SPEAKER_01 (48:08):
We're gonna find out, I guess.
SPEAKER_00 (48:10):
Yeah.
Yeah.
SPEAKER_01 (48:12):
Oh man, so as always, we really appreciate
your perspective, your datawithout the drama.
That's exactly what the industryneeds.
If anyone wants to check outthis episode or share with the
driver, uh we really appreciateit.
Leave a review, follow us as andalso if you uh check out DAT.
Um, we're gonna have a specialwhere all of these come out here
(48:34):
in April.
So um this is recorded a littleearlier, but uh we want to make
April a DAT month uh for thatdelivered.
So thank you so much, Dean.
And also, where can people reachyou?
Um, where's the best place tokeep all your updates and um
your posts?
What's the best place to look?
SPEAKER_00 (48:51):
Yeah, um you can catch the uh every 11 a.m.
Monday DAT freight and analyticsYouTube show.
That's where I do all my freightmarket analytics.
Uh, that's probably the best wayto get that.
Um, LinkedIn's the best place.
Um just shoot me a uh directmessage on LinkedIn.
You can uh send me your emailand I can get you on our weekly
uh market update email list.
That'll be the best way.
SPEAKER_01 (49:12):
Awesome, awesome.
Thank you so much again.
All right, well, appreciate youcoming on the show.
And uh that's delivered.
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