June 28, 2025 • 20 mins
4 straight losing nights for host Matt Perrault is not the kind of streak is looking for out of this week. The good news is that the POD hit yesterday, but that's it. Matt is going to UFC 317 and that's the focus of the Saturday episode of the Daily Juice.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:14):
What's up, guys? How are you happy? Saturday? Welcome in
to another episode of the Daly Juice Podcast with me
Matt Pereltz. You guys can follow me across all of
my socials at Sports Talk Matt and we are just
ice cold. We're not losing tremendous amounts of money. We're
just losing. We started up three units and we have
since lost all of that and we have now gone
(00:37):
down about two units for the week. Not what we wanted.
The Rays got destroyed by the Baltimore Orioles. They gave
up like a hundred runs Texas and Seattle. That game
flew over the Dodgers and the Royals. Miracle. That was
a miracle to stay five to four, Like somehow we
got that bet right. And then the Astros win. The
(01:00):
Dodgers win, but as always, it's the third leg of
the darn parlay. The Mets get blown out by the Pirates.
If we had gotten the Mets to win that game
like they were supposed to, we would have been good.
Would have been a profitable day. Instead, we lose and
we're down. Unfortunately, so raise the worst bet of the day.
(01:21):
The parlay does not come in and it's a one
to three day down one point eight units on the
day for Friday. So winning Monday, losing Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday,
that's four straight days of losing. We got to turn
things around, don't we. Well, even if we don't, this
is one of those days where I'm going to the event.
(01:44):
So since I'm going to the event, I mean, these
are the bets I'm making, and whether they win or lose,
I don't care because I'm covering the event. So I'm
gonna watch my bets play out in front of me.
And we're going with a full UFC card, just fighting
no baseball, not betting baseball today. I can't lose baseball
if I don't bet baseball. No baseball today, only UFC
(02:07):
three seventeen International Fight Week Tmobile Arena Pay Poor View.
I will be in the building for the entire main card.
Most of the prelimbs cannot wait, so we should be
a super fun night. I have bets on the last
three bets of the main card and two title fights
that will happen here tonight. I will break them each
(02:28):
down for you here in just one second. But before
I give you the bets for today, a reminder about
the code we have available from no vig. What is
no vig. It is a peer to peer sportsbook, meaning
you're competing against other users, not the house. It is
legal in most states. They call themselves a sports trading
(02:48):
platform called no Vig. You guys can get better lines.
Sometimes you can set your own lines, no commission or
hidden fees, and it uses a coin deposit system. It
is real money. You can use the code daily Juice
for fifty percent off your first coin purchase coin purchase
up to twenty five dollars. Check it out now at
bettingpros dot com slash juice. That's bettingpros dot com slash
(03:13):
juice for no Vig. Okay, let's start with the third
to last fight of the night, and that is Brandon
Roval up against a gamer, and I mean an absolute
gamer in Joshua Van. He just fought last month at
UFC three sixteen. He was not supposed to be the
(03:35):
opponent tonight, but due to an injury, a swapout happens
and Joshua Van is now in this fight. Joshua Van
being favored is wild to me. I mean it is
wild that he is favored Brandon Roval has lost three
fights in the UFC, essentially both fights to Alexander Pentosia,
(04:02):
the light the flyweight champion, and one to Brandon Moreno
in which he got hurt, got knocked out in the
first round. He got hurt. This guy's really good. Brandon
Roval is really really good. He is five foot nine,
has a sixty eight inch reach. Joshua Van is five
(04:23):
to five. He has a sixty five inch reach. So
even in the flyweight division, this is a big deal
to me. Now it's at the one hundred and twenty
five pound weight, you know, for the for this fight,
there very well could be a third fight between Brandon
Roval and Alexandra Pentojia. More in Pentosia here in just
(04:45):
one second. But I just can't believe I'm getting even
money here. And you can shop around and you might
be able to get better numbers than what even I
turned into bed. But I mean, I've seen I'm seen
anywhere from even money to plus one oh five at
some books, minus one oh five at other books. But
for the most part, everywhere's got Joshua Van being the
(05:06):
favorite here. Joshua Van is a really good fighter, but
he's twenty three years of age, and he is stepping
right in to the lions den here in a big
step up in competition. Like he beat Bruno Silva last month,
but Bruno Silva going from him to Brandon Roval, whoa
(05:27):
hold on a second, big jump up, big big jump up.
I don't know when the odds first came out, the
numbers that first popped up here. It was a pick
em or even some of the you know, some of
the books had a pretty big number on Joshua Van,
but that's because of the fans. Like, the fans really
(05:49):
like this twenty three year old and they think he's
gonna be a champion one day. But I can't do it.
I can't back a guy. Yeah, activity is great and
be in camp and he suffered no damage in his
last fight. So he's revvd up and he's gonna be
a formidable opponent. And he's won four consecutive fights, but
(06:11):
he hasn't really fought the who's who of the division yet,
and so this is a pretty big step up. Roval
has been win with the best in the division. I
think Joshua Van's got a really good career ahead of him,
and I think he'll be a really good fighter. I
just don't think he wins this fight. This is a
three round fight. It may go the distance. Twelve minutes
(06:31):
in one second average fight time for Roval, thirteen thirty
seven for Joshua Van in terms of his average length time,
that's a long time. Strikes landed per minute eight point
two that's wild for Joshua Van, that's a huge number.
But strike's absorbed per minute for Brandon Royval three point
(06:53):
zero six. He's hard to hit. On the flip side,
Joshua Van five point twenty six. He takes more strikes
than Roval. He actually lands in the UFC four point
four to six strikes landed per fifteen minutes, so like
per minute rather four point four to six versus absorbed
(07:14):
at five point two six is a wild discrepancy. Take
down accuracy seventy five percent. Take down accuracy, take down
defense for Joshua Van's pretty good eighty one percent. But
I just in terms of submission, ground in pound, get
him on his back, wear him out. I'll take the
(07:34):
more experienced fighter. I'll take the guy whose resume is deeper.
Brandon Royval is an even money fight. One unit. Royval
on the money line even money to beat Joshua Van
at UFC three p seventeen Bet number two Pantojia against
kai Kiara France. Man want to fight this potentially could be.
(07:55):
Here's the thing with this which I find pretty interesting.
So if kai Kara is going to win this fight,
it most likely is going to be by knockout. Now,
if you look at the way that kai Kia France
ends most of his fights. He beat Steve Ersig, who
had a lot of buzz around him before kai Kira
Franz knocked him out in the first round and he
(08:17):
looked great. That snapped a two fight losing streak for Royval,
won by decision, one by knockout. He had a three
fight winning streak, including knocking out Cody Garbrandt, which was
really impressive by Kaikira Franz. He's had kind of like
an up and down. He's fought Brandon Royval, he lost,
he got submitted, he thought Brendon Moreno, he lost by decision.
(08:40):
Kai Kira Franz has a chance at the belt. Finally
he gets a chance at the belt. If he's gonna win,
he has to knock out Pantojo straight up knock him out.
I don't think he can win on the cards. It's
a five round fight. He has to use his quickness,
his boxing, and he has to lay out Pantojia. The
problem is for Antojia. Our problem is for any opponent
(09:02):
facing Pantosia. I mean he lost by decision back in
twenty twenty was his last loss. He lost by decision
against against Devison Figuredo way back in twenty nineteen. He
lost to a guy named Dustin Ortez in twenty eighteen.
Like Pantosia has been running through the division. He has
(09:25):
cleaned out the division, whether it be roy Val twice,
whether it be Erseg, whether it be Brandon Moreno, like
he's just beating everybody. Pantoja is a big favorite, too
expensive to lay it if you ask me. But Pantojia
by submission seems pretty likely. He won by submission in
his last fight he has finished. That snapped a three
(09:48):
fight streak where he won by decision. But I think
it's telling that inside the distance is only minus one
thirty five and the fight to go the distance is
plus one zero five. That at Circus Sports here in
Las Vegas, which is the bet that I primarily bet
my combat sports at here in Town. I respect their numbers,
I respect their lines, and that tells me something that
(10:11):
this is not heavily juiced to going the distance. To me,
it feels like this fight, yes, would go the distance.
It's plus one oh five. It's plus money, so I
don't care who wins. If kay Kara Franz wins, it's
by knockout. Most likely that prop bet at Circus Sports
Kaikarra France by knockout is plus five seventy five. On
(10:34):
the flip side, Pintosia by knockout it's plus six fifty
and Pantoza by submission is plus two to thirty. Most
likely it's Pantosia by submission or Kaikara France by knockout.
It could go to the carts, absolutely it could, and
you can bet the over four and a half rounds
if you want. If you want to do that, it's
miss one oh five. Gon bet over have it. Say okay,
(10:54):
it's gonna go over four and a half rounds and
you can play around with the last two and at
two minutes and thirty seconds of the fifth round. Very possible,
But I think this fight ends inside the distance. I
don't think we go to the carts and again. You
can bet under four and a half rounds at minus
one point fifteen if you want, but I'll pay the
twenty cents to get the full five rounds in case
something wonky happens late knockout, late submission, late in the
(11:18):
fifth round, somebody gets tired, somebody gets banged up, and
we get a late submission. I don't want to be caught,
you know, holding a ticket for under four and a
half rounds and the fight finishes inside the distance, and
yet it goes over, so I don't want to play
around with that. I'll pay the twenty cents extra to
get the full five rounds. I think this thing ends
inside the distance. I think Pantosia wins by submission or
(11:41):
kai Kara Franz wins by knockout. Not really sure which
one is more likely to happen, but I do think
Pantojia winning is probably pretty likely here. But this has
been the shot that Kai Kira Franz has been waiting for,
and let's see if his power can translate to go
ahead and knockout Pantosia. I mean again, this guy has
never been knocked out. In his UFC career, his only
(12:02):
losses have come by decision, So I mean he's been
the best of the best. Maybe his time's up. Maybe
this is Kai Karra Franz's moment. But if it's going
to be, it's not gonna be by decision, it's gonna
be by knockout. And Pantosia on the other side, because
kai Kara France I think will go after the knockout.
I think he'll Kai Kara Frantz is gonna be wide open,
(12:25):
wide open to being submitted, and he has been knocked out,
he has lost on the cards, and he's been submitted
by the guy Brandon roy Val who lost twice to Pantojia.
So inside the distance mins one thirty five for one
point three to five units. And finally we go to
(12:47):
the main event to Pouria against Ilia Ily, to Poria
against Charles Olavera. I have no idea who wins this fight.
To Poria is amazing. He's a monster favorite. I mean,
he's just a mass a favorite Mins three eighty at
Circus Sports. Should he be that big of a favorite, Well, yeah,
most likely he should. Tail of the tape is my problem.
(13:10):
So let's just lay it out. To Pooria is five
to seven. He is moving up to the one fifty
five lightweight weight. This is where Charles Olvera lives. This
is his division Kai Kira France. In these featherweights, these
these flyweights, these light these guys that have fought here
for a while at one thirty five and one twenty five. Okay,
(13:33):
these are guys. To Poria is going from forty five
to fifty five. He's not going to cut much weight.
So the question is going to be how quick will
he be, how fast will he be? How fast will
the hands be? At one fifty five, but he's five
to seven, Charles Olivera is five to ten. Olivera has
a seventy four inch reach. To Poria has a sixty
(13:56):
nine inch reach. This is a five inch reach advantage
and a three inch height advantage. So you tell me,
if you understand the principles of boxing, why in the
world would char Charles Olivera run at to Poria. Why
would he do that? So that's the theory in the
thought that Olivera is gonna walk forward and to Poria
(14:18):
is gonna catch him and knock him out in the
first round. That's been his projection all along. I'm gonna
knock Olivera out in the first round. My problem with this,
I think the public is falling for something here. Now.
I know that Olivera knocked out Darrouche, who's on this card,
in the first round. He catoed him. But Olivera beat
(14:40):
Chandler by decision, and that's what got him into this fight.
Zerukian he lost a three round fight, split decision. He
lost to Mackachief by submission in the second round. He
beat Gai Chee, he beat Porier, he beat Chandler, he
beat Ferguson, he beat ke Lee. I mean he's beaten
(15:01):
everyone in this stack division. He's got a you know,
someone's scalp on the mantelpiece due Bronx is ridiculous, Okay,
absolutely ridiculous. Average fight time is seven thirty eight for Olivera.
On the flip side to Pouria's average fight time is
ten fourteen. But if you're Charles Olivera, why are you
rushing to Poria? Well, why are you rushing a guy
(15:23):
who knocked out Max Holloway, who knocked out Alexander Voganowski,
who knocked out I guess decision by Josh Emmett, who
submitted Bryce Mitchell. Why would you go forward and put
yourself at risk immediately? Wouldn't you stay at distance and
try to feel your way through and see what you
can do at distance? You have a long reach advantage,
(15:46):
You can kick, you can prod, you can score points
without having to engage. To Pooria early and allow him
just to throw reckless, abandoned. The guy who needs to
close the distance is not Charles Olvera, So why would
he charge forward? I know he's claiming he's gonna walk forward,
(16:06):
but I think it's loning tunes to do that. I
don't think he's actually gonna do that. This fight actually
might be kind of boring. To be honest with you,
I think it might actually not be a great fight
because I don't think Olivera is gonna want to engage.
What's the point. Max Holloway wanted to sit there and
box to Poria. He wanted to teach him a lesson.
He was like, Okay, let's go ahead, let's go and
(16:27):
throw you me. You know, main event, Let's go, let's
throw hands and see what's gonna happen. Knockout in the
third round, knocked him out I mean, only guy in
the world ever knock out Max Holloway. But I mean,
but my problem that was the featherweight title belt. This
(16:47):
is not for the featherweight tighter about tele belt, this
is for the lightweight belt. So I just have a
hard time thinking that Olivera is going to somehow run
in and get I think Toporia does win the fight.
But the one and a half rounds, that's seven and
a half minutes. I need Charles Olivera to survive for
(17:09):
seven and a half minutes. How likely is that. I mean,
I think it's pretty likely. I'm really surprised at the numbers.
I mean again, Chandler was five rounds. Sarukim was three rounds.
He knocked out Da Ruche in the first. He lost
to makat Chef in the second round. That went three
sixteen into there. He knocked out Gaichi in the first sorry,
(17:31):
submitted Gaichee in the first round. Back in twenty twenty two, Chuck,
he choked out Porier in the third round. Back in
twenty twenty one. I mean, he knocked out Chandler. He
fought him twice, knocked him out in the second round.
I just have a hard time seeing Olivera going, yeah,
let's go ahead and get into a firefight with Taporia
(17:53):
right away. Taporia is gonna be carrying weight differently, He's
fighting at a higher weight class. What's the pay he's
gonna be? You know, Olavera is not gonna get tired.
Why would you get let him off the hook? I
don't understand the number. I think one and a half
is way too light. I think this fight goes like
three or four rounds. I'd be really surprised one and
(18:15):
a half rounds is reserved for a heavyweight belt. Like,
we're giving a lot of respect to to Poria, a
lot of respect for his punching power. Strikes landed per
minute four point sixty nine, that's not insane. Olivera only
three point twenty one strikes absorbed per minute. Tough guy
to hit, we know that. Takedowns averaging two takedowns every
(18:39):
fifteen minutes for to Poria two point twenty five for Olivera,
ninety two percent takedown defense for to Poria. It's incredible,
it's amazing. Du Bronx is only fifty six percent takedown defense,
but submission averages per three rounds per fifteen minutes is
one point one to two point seven. So if you're Olivera,
(19:00):
don't you want to get to the ground and see
if to Poria can defend. Can to Poriak be taken down?
They said ninety two percent takedown defense, But if Olivera
gets a gets a window and he takes him down,
it's gonna bleed clock, which is great for the over Again,
I think to Poria wins, but one and a half
rounds in a lightweight fight, I think is a little
(19:21):
bit too respectful. And look, maybe Toporiy knocks him out
in the first three minutes and I'm dead wrong. But
the price isn't bad. I mean, the price is actually
sort of amazing that we get minus one twenty five
onto Poria in over one and a half rounds in
Olivera at one point twenty five units. We're taking it
over one and a half rounds at minus one twenty
(19:43):
five for one point twenty five units. Pantosia and Kai
Kira France to end inside the distance. Don't care who wins,
just think that fight is not going to be a
decision at Mius one thirty five for one point three
five units and Brandon Roval even money money line win
for him, come out up in his fight up against
Joshua Van. Those are your last three fights of the
(20:04):
night at UFC three p. Seventeen. I'll be there. Let's
hopefully cash some tickets. Let's have some fun, no parlaying,
no wonky stuff, just trying to cash three bets for
us here tonight and get back on the winning track
after four straight winning days. Minus Matt Perelt find me,
follow me across all my socials at Sports Talk Matt
every morning wherever you guys get your podcasts. It is
(20:26):
the Daily Juice.
What's up, guys? How are you happy? Saturday? Welcome in
to another episode of the Daly Juice Podcast with me
Matt Pereltz. You guys can follow me across all of
my socials at Sports Talk Matt and we are just
ice cold. We're not losing tremendous amounts of money. We're
just losing. We started up three units and we have
since lost all of that and we have now gone
(00:37):
down about two units for the week. Not what we wanted.
The Rays got destroyed by the Baltimore Orioles. They gave
up like a hundred runs Texas and Seattle. That game
flew over the Dodgers and the Royals. Miracle. That was
a miracle to stay five to four, Like somehow we
got that bet right. And then the Astros win. The
(01:00):
Dodgers win, but as always, it's the third leg of
the darn parlay. The Mets get blown out by the Pirates.
If we had gotten the Mets to win that game
like they were supposed to, we would have been good.
Would have been a profitable day. Instead, we lose and
we're down. Unfortunately, so raise the worst bet of the day.
(01:21):
The parlay does not come in and it's a one
to three day down one point eight units on the
day for Friday. So winning Monday, losing Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday,
that's four straight days of losing. We got to turn
things around, don't we. Well, even if we don't, this
is one of those days where I'm going to the event.
(01:44):
So since I'm going to the event, I mean, these
are the bets I'm making, and whether they win or lose,
I don't care because I'm covering the event. So I'm
gonna watch my bets play out in front of me.
And we're going with a full UFC card, just fighting
no baseball, not betting baseball today. I can't lose baseball
if I don't bet baseball. No baseball today, only UFC
(02:07):
three seventeen International Fight Week Tmobile Arena Pay Poor View.
I will be in the building for the entire main card.
Most of the prelimbs cannot wait, so we should be
a super fun night. I have bets on the last
three bets of the main card and two title fights
that will happen here tonight. I will break them each
(02:28):
down for you here in just one second. But before
I give you the bets for today, a reminder about
the code we have available from no vig. What is
no vig. It is a peer to peer sportsbook, meaning
you're competing against other users, not the house. It is
legal in most states. They call themselves a sports trading
(02:48):
platform called no Vig. You guys can get better lines.
Sometimes you can set your own lines, no commission or
hidden fees, and it uses a coin deposit system. It
is real money. You can use the code daily Juice
for fifty percent off your first coin purchase coin purchase
up to twenty five dollars. Check it out now at
bettingpros dot com slash juice. That's bettingpros dot com slash
(03:13):
juice for no Vig. Okay, let's start with the third
to last fight of the night, and that is Brandon
Roval up against a gamer, and I mean an absolute
gamer in Joshua Van. He just fought last month at
UFC three sixteen. He was not supposed to be the
(03:35):
opponent tonight, but due to an injury, a swapout happens
and Joshua Van is now in this fight. Joshua Van
being favored is wild to me. I mean it is
wild that he is favored Brandon Roval has lost three
fights in the UFC, essentially both fights to Alexander Pentosia,
(04:02):
the light the flyweight champion, and one to Brandon Moreno
in which he got hurt, got knocked out in the
first round. He got hurt. This guy's really good. Brandon
Roval is really really good. He is five foot nine,
has a sixty eight inch reach. Joshua Van is five
(04:23):
to five. He has a sixty five inch reach. So
even in the flyweight division, this is a big deal
to me. Now it's at the one hundred and twenty
five pound weight, you know, for the for this fight,
there very well could be a third fight between Brandon
Roval and Alexandra Pentojia. More in Pentosia here in just
(04:45):
one second. But I just can't believe I'm getting even
money here. And you can shop around and you might
be able to get better numbers than what even I
turned into bed. But I mean, I've seen I'm seen
anywhere from even money to plus one oh five at
some books, minus one oh five at other books. But
for the most part, everywhere's got Joshua Van being the
(05:06):
favorite here. Joshua Van is a really good fighter, but
he's twenty three years of age, and he is stepping
right in to the lions den here in a big
step up in competition. Like he beat Bruno Silva last month,
but Bruno Silva going from him to Brandon Roval, whoa
(05:27):
hold on a second, big jump up, big big jump up.
I don't know when the odds first came out, the
numbers that first popped up here. It was a pick
em or even some of the you know, some of
the books had a pretty big number on Joshua Van,
but that's because of the fans. Like, the fans really
(05:49):
like this twenty three year old and they think he's
gonna be a champion one day. But I can't do it.
I can't back a guy. Yeah, activity is great and
be in camp and he suffered no damage in his
last fight. So he's revvd up and he's gonna be
a formidable opponent. And he's won four consecutive fights, but
(06:11):
he hasn't really fought the who's who of the division yet,
and so this is a pretty big step up. Roval
has been win with the best in the division. I
think Joshua Van's got a really good career ahead of him,
and I think he'll be a really good fighter. I
just don't think he wins this fight. This is a
three round fight. It may go the distance. Twelve minutes
(06:31):
in one second average fight time for Roval, thirteen thirty
seven for Joshua Van in terms of his average length time,
that's a long time. Strikes landed per minute eight point
two that's wild for Joshua Van, that's a huge number.
But strike's absorbed per minute for Brandon Royval three point
(06:53):
zero six. He's hard to hit. On the flip side,
Joshua Van five point twenty six. He takes more strikes
than Roval. He actually lands in the UFC four point
four to six strikes landed per fifteen minutes, so like
per minute rather four point four to six versus absorbed
(07:14):
at five point two six is a wild discrepancy. Take
down accuracy seventy five percent. Take down accuracy, take down
defense for Joshua Van's pretty good eighty one percent. But
I just in terms of submission, ground in pound, get
him on his back, wear him out. I'll take the
(07:34):
more experienced fighter. I'll take the guy whose resume is deeper.
Brandon Royval is an even money fight. One unit. Royval
on the money line even money to beat Joshua Van
at UFC three p seventeen Bet number two Pantojia against
kai Kiara France. Man want to fight this potentially could be.
(07:55):
Here's the thing with this which I find pretty interesting.
So if kai Kara is going to win this fight,
it most likely is going to be by knockout. Now,
if you look at the way that kai Kia France
ends most of his fights. He beat Steve Ersig, who
had a lot of buzz around him before kai Kira
Franz knocked him out in the first round and he
(08:17):
looked great. That snapped a two fight losing streak for Royval,
won by decision, one by knockout. He had a three
fight winning streak, including knocking out Cody Garbrandt, which was
really impressive by Kaikira Franz. He's had kind of like
an up and down. He's fought Brandon Royval, he lost,
he got submitted, he thought Brendon Moreno, he lost by decision.
(08:40):
Kai Kira Franz has a chance at the belt. Finally
he gets a chance at the belt. If he's gonna win,
he has to knock out Pantojo straight up knock him out.
I don't think he can win on the cards. It's
a five round fight. He has to use his quickness,
his boxing, and he has to lay out Pantojia. The
problem is for Antojia. Our problem is for any opponent
(09:02):
facing Pantosia. I mean he lost by decision back in
twenty twenty was his last loss. He lost by decision
against against Devison Figuredo way back in twenty nineteen. He
lost to a guy named Dustin Ortez in twenty eighteen.
Like Pantosia has been running through the division. He has
(09:25):
cleaned out the division, whether it be roy Val twice,
whether it be Erseg, whether it be Brandon Moreno, like
he's just beating everybody. Pantoja is a big favorite, too
expensive to lay it if you ask me. But Pantojia
by submission seems pretty likely. He won by submission in
his last fight he has finished. That snapped a three
(09:48):
fight streak where he won by decision. But I think
it's telling that inside the distance is only minus one
thirty five and the fight to go the distance is
plus one zero five. That at Circus Sports here in
Las Vegas, which is the bet that I primarily bet
my combat sports at here in Town. I respect their numbers,
I respect their lines, and that tells me something that
(10:11):
this is not heavily juiced to going the distance. To me,
it feels like this fight, yes, would go the distance.
It's plus one oh five. It's plus money, so I
don't care who wins. If kay Kara Franz wins, it's
by knockout. Most likely that prop bet at Circus Sports
Kaikarra France by knockout is plus five seventy five. On
(10:34):
the flip side, Pintosia by knockout it's plus six fifty
and Pantoza by submission is plus two to thirty. Most
likely it's Pantosia by submission or Kaikara France by knockout.
It could go to the carts, absolutely it could, and
you can bet the over four and a half rounds
if you want. If you want to do that, it's
miss one oh five. Gon bet over have it. Say okay,
(10:54):
it's gonna go over four and a half rounds and
you can play around with the last two and at
two minutes and thirty seconds of the fifth round. Very possible,
But I think this fight ends inside the distance. I
don't think we go to the carts and again. You
can bet under four and a half rounds at minus
one point fifteen if you want, but I'll pay the
twenty cents to get the full five rounds in case
something wonky happens late knockout, late submission, late in the
(11:18):
fifth round, somebody gets tired, somebody gets banged up, and
we get a late submission. I don't want to be caught,
you know, holding a ticket for under four and a
half rounds and the fight finishes inside the distance, and
yet it goes over, so I don't want to play
around with that. I'll pay the twenty cents extra to
get the full five rounds. I think this thing ends
inside the distance. I think Pantosia wins by submission or
(11:41):
kai Kara Franz wins by knockout. Not really sure which
one is more likely to happen, but I do think
Pantojia winning is probably pretty likely here. But this has
been the shot that Kai Kira Franz has been waiting for,
and let's see if his power can translate to go
ahead and knockout Pantosia. I mean again, this guy has
never been knocked out. In his UFC career, his only
(12:02):
losses have come by decision, So I mean he's been
the best of the best. Maybe his time's up. Maybe
this is Kai Karra Franz's moment. But if it's going
to be, it's not gonna be by decision, it's gonna
be by knockout. And Pantosia on the other side, because
kai Kara France I think will go after the knockout.
I think he'll Kai Kara Frantz is gonna be wide open,
(12:25):
wide open to being submitted, and he has been knocked out,
he has lost on the cards, and he's been submitted
by the guy Brandon roy Val who lost twice to Pantojia.
So inside the distance mins one thirty five for one
point three to five units. And finally we go to
(12:47):
the main event to Pouria against Ilia Ily, to Poria
against Charles Olavera. I have no idea who wins this fight.
To Poria is amazing. He's a monster favorite. I mean,
he's just a mass a favorite Mins three eighty at
Circus Sports. Should he be that big of a favorite, Well, yeah,
most likely he should. Tail of the tape is my problem.
(13:10):
So let's just lay it out. To Pooria is five
to seven. He is moving up to the one fifty
five lightweight weight. This is where Charles Olvera lives. This
is his division Kai Kira France. In these featherweights, these
these flyweights, these light these guys that have fought here
for a while at one thirty five and one twenty five. Okay,
(13:33):
these are guys. To Poria is going from forty five
to fifty five. He's not going to cut much weight.
So the question is going to be how quick will
he be, how fast will he be? How fast will
the hands be? At one fifty five, but he's five
to seven, Charles Olivera is five to ten. Olivera has
a seventy four inch reach. To Poria has a sixty
(13:56):
nine inch reach. This is a five inch reach advantage
and a three inch height advantage. So you tell me,
if you understand the principles of boxing, why in the
world would char Charles Olivera run at to Poria. Why
would he do that? So that's the theory in the
thought that Olivera is gonna walk forward and to Poria
(14:18):
is gonna catch him and knock him out in the
first round. That's been his projection all along. I'm gonna
knock Olivera out in the first round. My problem with this,
I think the public is falling for something here. Now.
I know that Olivera knocked out Darrouche, who's on this card,
in the first round. He catoed him. But Olivera beat
(14:40):
Chandler by decision, and that's what got him into this fight.
Zerukian he lost a three round fight, split decision. He
lost to Mackachief by submission in the second round. He
beat Gai Chee, he beat Porier, he beat Chandler, he
beat Ferguson, he beat ke Lee. I mean he's beaten
(15:01):
everyone in this stack division. He's got a you know,
someone's scalp on the mantelpiece due Bronx is ridiculous, Okay,
absolutely ridiculous. Average fight time is seven thirty eight for Olivera.
On the flip side to Pouria's average fight time is
ten fourteen. But if you're Charles Olivera, why are you
rushing to Poria? Well, why are you rushing a guy
(15:23):
who knocked out Max Holloway, who knocked out Alexander Voganowski,
who knocked out I guess decision by Josh Emmett, who
submitted Bryce Mitchell. Why would you go forward and put
yourself at risk immediately? Wouldn't you stay at distance and
try to feel your way through and see what you
can do at distance? You have a long reach advantage,
(15:46):
You can kick, you can prod, you can score points
without having to engage. To Pooria early and allow him
just to throw reckless, abandoned. The guy who needs to
close the distance is not Charles Olvera, So why would
he charge forward? I know he's claiming he's gonna walk forward,
(16:06):
but I think it's loning tunes to do that. I
don't think he's actually gonna do that. This fight actually
might be kind of boring. To be honest with you,
I think it might actually not be a great fight
because I don't think Olivera is gonna want to engage.
What's the point. Max Holloway wanted to sit there and
box to Poria. He wanted to teach him a lesson.
He was like, Okay, let's go ahead, let's go and
(16:27):
throw you me. You know, main event, Let's go, let's
throw hands and see what's gonna happen. Knockout in the
third round, knocked him out I mean, only guy in
the world ever knock out Max Holloway. But I mean,
but my problem that was the featherweight title belt. This
(16:47):
is not for the featherweight tighter about tele belt, this
is for the lightweight belt. So I just have a
hard time thinking that Olivera is going to somehow run
in and get I think Toporia does win the fight.
But the one and a half rounds, that's seven and
a half minutes. I need Charles Olivera to survive for
(17:09):
seven and a half minutes. How likely is that. I mean,
I think it's pretty likely. I'm really surprised at the numbers.
I mean again, Chandler was five rounds. Sarukim was three rounds.
He knocked out Da Ruche in the first. He lost
to makat Chef in the second round. That went three
sixteen into there. He knocked out Gaichi in the first sorry,
(17:31):
submitted Gaichee in the first round. Back in twenty twenty two, Chuck,
he choked out Porier in the third round. Back in
twenty twenty one. I mean, he knocked out Chandler. He
fought him twice, knocked him out in the second round.
I just have a hard time seeing Olivera going, yeah,
let's go ahead and get into a firefight with Taporia
(17:53):
right away. Taporia is gonna be carrying weight differently, He's
fighting at a higher weight class. What's the pay he's
gonna be? You know, Olavera is not gonna get tired.
Why would you get let him off the hook? I
don't understand the number. I think one and a half
is way too light. I think this fight goes like
three or four rounds. I'd be really surprised one and
(18:15):
a half rounds is reserved for a heavyweight belt. Like,
we're giving a lot of respect to to Poria, a
lot of respect for his punching power. Strikes landed per
minute four point sixty nine, that's not insane. Olivera only
three point twenty one strikes absorbed per minute. Tough guy
to hit, we know that. Takedowns averaging two takedowns every
(18:39):
fifteen minutes for to Poria two point twenty five for Olivera,
ninety two percent takedown defense for to Poria. It's incredible,
it's amazing. Du Bronx is only fifty six percent takedown defense,
but submission averages per three rounds per fifteen minutes is
one point one to two point seven. So if you're Olivera,
(19:00):
don't you want to get to the ground and see
if to Poria can defend. Can to Poriak be taken down?
They said ninety two percent takedown defense, But if Olivera
gets a gets a window and he takes him down,
it's gonna bleed clock, which is great for the over Again,
I think to Poria wins, but one and a half
rounds in a lightweight fight, I think is a little
(19:21):
bit too respectful. And look, maybe Toporiy knocks him out
in the first three minutes and I'm dead wrong. But
the price isn't bad. I mean, the price is actually
sort of amazing that we get minus one twenty five
onto Poria in over one and a half rounds in
Olivera at one point twenty five units. We're taking it
over one and a half rounds at minus one twenty
(19:43):
five for one point twenty five units. Pantosia and Kai
Kira France to end inside the distance. Don't care who wins,
just think that fight is not going to be a
decision at Mius one thirty five for one point three
five units and Brandon Roval even money money line win
for him, come out up in his fight up against
Joshua Van. Those are your last three fights of the
(20:04):
night at UFC three p. Seventeen. I'll be there. Let's
hopefully cash some tickets. Let's have some fun, no parlaying,
no wonky stuff, just trying to cash three bets for
us here tonight and get back on the winning track
after four straight winning days. Minus Matt Perelt find me,
follow me across all my socials at Sports Talk Matt
every morning wherever you guys get your podcasts. It is
(20:26):
the Daily Juice.
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