The NZ Property Market Podcast

The NZ Property Market Podcast

Brought to you by CoreLogic and produced by Agents TV. Each week co-hosts Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson will bring you all the latest news, stats and insight to keep you up to date with everything to do with the NZ residential property market. Including sales volumes, house price indices, buyer activity, interest rates, loan-to-value ratio restrictions and all of the macro economic factors that influence our largest asset class. Contact us on twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL... Show More

Episodes

March 1, 2021 28 min

This week Nick and Kelvin discuss the big news of last week - that the Reserve Bank must take house prices into account when setting their policy. 

The RBNZ also released their first Monetary Policy Statement for the year, which Kelvin reviews and considers where-to for interest rates.

The CoreLogic Affordability Report was released last week, illustrating the difficulty for first home buyers to get into the market. Kelvin provides a...

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This week Nick and Kelvin provide their take on the latest sales data for January, showing relatively low activity outside of Auckland.

A key release this week is the CoreLogic Housing Affordability Report so Kelvin provides a preview of that ahead of the official release on Wed/Thur.

There's also a bit more discussion around the reintroduction of the loan-to-value ratio restrictions as coverage of it in the media increases.

Then,...

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With the latest announcement of a move to alert level 3 in Auckland and 2 elsewhere, Nick and Kelvin cast their minds back to previous times this happened, using the early market indicators to help set expectations for the property market in the coming days.

With a bit more time to digest the announcement by RBNZ to reinstate the loan-to-value ratio (LVR) restrictions, there's also plenty more data from 2016 to get a feel for wh...

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A mid-podcast announcement from the RBNZ regarding the return of the LVR restrictions has Nick and Kelvin providing their 'live reaction'. With the proposed increase to 40% deposit requirement for investors from 1 May 2021 it aligns with most expectations and will likely lead to a slowing of property value growth from the middle of the year.

Before then Kelvin makes mention of the surprisingly strong labour market figures fo...

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Off the back of the latest Quarterly CoreLogic Property Market and Economic report, Kelvin and Nick (freshly back from holiday) muse the likelihood of the LVR limits returning to a 40% deposit requirement sooner rather than later, given strong recent investor activity.

Kelvin then rounds up last week's economic releases - consumer confidence and filled jobs, before the regular analysis of the CoreLogic early market indicators, w...

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With Nick away on leave in Northland, Kelvin takes up the reins and outlines how the Early Market Indicators still point to a tight supply/demand balance over the next few weeks and months.

 Meanwhile, the latest net migration figures have remained low and slow, and perhaps a bit ‘boring’ – certainly, other factors such as low mortgage rates and FOMO are more important for the property market right now.

 Kelvin also discusses how CPI...

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With REINZ releasing their sales statistics for December, Nick runs through the figures on sales volumes as well as the headline index results.

Kelvin then delves into the latest economic releases, including strong jobs data, increasing rental figures and yet more dwellings being consented.

This provides the back-drop for a discussion on the health of the economy, the state of the rental market (amid upcoming tenancy law changes) and...

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After a short summer break Nick and Kelvin are back on deck to chat about the year ahead in the property market. 

The December CoreLogic House Price Index first rounds out the year though, with growth the order of the day. 6.1% growth over the final quarter of the year brings sustainability and affordability to the fore so Nick takes a look at the data to reveal what's happening from an affordability perspective.

Kelvin provides ...

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December 21, 2020 45 min

In a bumper final episode of the year, number 55, Nick and Kelvin look back at the year that was 2020 in the property market. 

To kick things of this is done through the lens of the CoreLogic 'best of the best' report, released last week, before delving into a few highlights of the year.

A shorter look back at the last week of data and media coverage highlights Stuff's new affordability dashboard, complete with CoreLogic ...

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In episode 54 Nick and Kelvin discuss the latest correspondence between the RBNZ and the Minister of Finance. There's plenty to cover, including debt-to-income restrictions (a week after Kelvin wrote specifically about them) and other options to extend the RBNZ's mandate.

Sticking with the RBNZ, they're consulting on LVR re-introduction and the direct funding for lending programme is underway.

Meanwhile the Prime Minister...

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In episode 53 Nick covers off the latest CoreLogic House Price Index for November, as well as a few stats illustrating the affordability challenges at the moment.

Kelvin then gives an overview of DTIs (debt-to-income ratios) which have come back into the RBNZ's lingo again.

There's also a few solid economic release to cover, a seasonal drop away in listing and valuations activity and a lot to look forward to over the next wee...

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In episode 52 Nick and Kelvin weigh into what is becoming a very heated political topic right now - who is to 'blame' for the runaway growth in the NZ property market, and who needs to do what about it?

The CoreLogic Pain & Gain report also provides yet more evidence of the strong market and is available here.

And all signs from the CoreLogic Early Market Indicators reporting point to current trends to continue into and ...

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In episode 51 Nick and Kelvin discuss the release and results of the hugely popular first home buyer (FHB) report which showed how active FHBs have been and what part of the market they've been entering. Full report available here.

The RBNZ also released some revealing data with the total value of mortgages on deferral programme diminishing throughout October to significantly reduce the risk the proposed end of the scheme presen...

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In episode 50 Nick and Kelvin 'raise the microphone' to acknowledge the half century milestone and spend a decent amount of time reviewing a heck of a week for the Reserve Bank.

There's also plenty of October data to chew over - including the CoreLogic Buyer Classification series, NZ Activity Index and REINZ sales data.

And in a special treat for the 50th ep, Kelvin delves into the details of the CoreLogic First Home Buye...

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In Episode 49 (with shorter intro), there are a few higher profile news stories to chat about, starting with whether or not first home buyers are worsening the housing crisis. But there were also a few 'records' being touted that may not have been as significant as they sound.

Kelvin then rounds up the economic data releases from last week, including building consents and unemployment figures, before looking ahead to an intr...

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In Episode 48, Nick kicks the pod off by delving into the latest CoreLogic House Price Index data for October. Values have accelerated off the back of continually strong demand and a lack of supply, which are also illustrated by the latest RBNZ lending stats.

The labour market continues to weather the COVID storm well, as Stats NZ report from their 'jobs filled' data. Kelvin provides the detail on this as well as ANZ's l...

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In Episode 47, there's plenty of economic data to chew over, starting with the NZ Activity Index (NZAC). This is the more timely measure of economic activity, essentially pre-empting the official GDP figures. September's result was surprisingly strong and ends Q3 on a solid note.

There was also an update to the population growth figures for every TA (city/town) across the country, so Kelvin provides an overview of the areas ...

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In Episode 46, Nick and Kelvin discuss the election result from the weekend and potential implications for the property market.

Kelvin then goes over the latest migration data, and provides clarity on the strength or otherwise of NZ citizens on the overall migration picture. 

There's also the latest sales numbers for September following the REINZ data release and insight on the strength of mortgage demand through the banks.

The la...

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October 15, 2020 48 min

In Episode 45, Nick is joined by Rupert Gough, CEO and founder of Mortgage Lab and author of 'The Successful First Home Buyer' book.

Rupert began working in the mortgage advice industry in 2011 and, after moving to Auckland in 2014, started The Mortgage Lab in early 2017. 

He talks to Nick about how the market has reacted to the craziness of 2020 and talks through what's happening from a finance assessment point of view t...

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In Episode 44, Nick and Kelvin discuss the swathes of data which reflect the recent strength of the market. This includes results from the REINZ/Tony Alexander survey of agents, MBIE rental bond data and the preliminary ANZ Business Confidence data for October.

There's also a bit of housing policy to consider as the National Party released more details of their plans, if they're successful at the election this week.

Plus of c...

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