The NZ Property Market Podcast

Following Westpac's big call (at the time) and then the Government budget last week there's plenty to talk about as Nick and Kelvin essentially preview the RBNZ's next Monetary Policy Statement coming out this Wednesday at 2pm.

The RBNZ also released Q1 data for debt-to-income tracking. Meanwhile both the CoreLogic monthly chart pack for May and the first home buyer report for Q1 also went to market. 

Check out the lat...

This week Nick and Kelvin use the latest CoreLogic First Home Buyer report and April's buyer classification data to focus on the key players in the market.

For those first home buyers (or anyone really) who are credit approved there's no doubt this is a great market for them, with a shift down for the prices they're paying but a shift up (to houses) in the types of property they're buying. 

Meanwhile for other own...

The Reserve Bank's latest Financial Stability Report again promoted the NZ Economy's resilience and with very early signs of the property market approaching a trough and the labour market remaining tight it's hard to argue against.

The detail on jobseeker numbers and the difference to unemployment figures is available here:

https://www.msd.govt.nz/documents/about-msd-and-our-work/publications-resources/statistics/covid...

In this episode of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson discuss the state of the New Zealand economy, including the NZ Activity Index, inflation, and job statistics. They also discuss recent changes to the loan-to-value ratio (LVR) rules and the upcoming financial stability report from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The speakers touch on the possibility of tax reform, including a land value ta...

Inflation dropped in Q1, which is great news for everybody. The guys run through the latest data, the risk of any suprises in the coming quarters, and of course what it means for the official cash rate and mortgage rates.

They then quickly cover off the latest rent figures, before a discussion of the signs that this housing market downturn may be on its last legs (for better or worse, depending on your perspective). But th...

With Nick away in Northland on a family holiday, Kelvin leads the discussion today, joined by Alan Gilbert, who is CoreLogic’s Head of Banking and Finance Solutions.

The discussion runs through construction costs, the active buyer groups in the market at present, as well as migration trends, and upcoming rental figures.

The looming CPI release on Thursday 20th is also covered off, which is a really key release in terms of the next st...

After the RBNZ surprised everyone by lifting the OCR by 50 basis points, Nick and Kelvin dig into their statement and reasoning for the call. Given their consistency in messaging, are they actually quite a good 'referee'?

Plus, this week a detailed look into the latest CoreLogic House Price Index for March.

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@...

Amongst the usual review of weekly data and preview of the RBNZ OCR call this week, Nick and Kelvin also take a look at the RBNZ's latest paper on flooding exposure of the banking system. A couple of key insights extracted by Kelvin are:

• Property prices could fall 80 – 100% in the most extreme cases in NZ in the event of a large coastal flood – due at least in part to insurance withdrawal.
• 25% of Auckland mortgages are vulne...

Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson have called it, saying it’s “fairly likely” we’ve entered a recession.
Find out:

• How they came to this conclusion.
• What the Reserve Bank will likely say at next week’s OCR announcement. 
• Plus, the central bank has engineered a recession. When might they dial back their OCR hikes?

 Tune into all that and more in this week’s NZ Property Podcast. 

Sign up for news and insights or contact on Lin...

Cyclone Gabrielle and the Auckland flooding are likely to be a major drag on the country’s economy and may have plunged NZ into a recession earlier than expected. 

But is there a silver lining from this devastating event for our country’s shrinking economy?

In this week’s NZ Property Podcast, Kelvin Davidson and Nick Goodall make a case for the downturn coming to an end sooner than expected including:

• An expected boost in spending...

With a much quieter data week Nick and Kelvin find conversation in a range of topics, including the third edition of the CoreLogic Women & Property report, Kelvin's anecdotes from a week on the road with the Trade Me Property team and the National Party's Build to Rent announcement.

Hot off the press is the CoreLogic Mapping the Market report though, the interactive suburb map detailing the median value and change for ...

In a special edition podcast Nick and Kelvin are joined by Eliza Owen, Head of Research for CoreLogic Australia. Eliza is the author of the just-released third edition of the CoreLogic Women & Property Report.

Eliza takes Nick through the report - why does it exist, how is it done, and what does it tell us? Kelvin helps along the way with some NZ specific insight but the findings are relatively consistent across both countries a...

With the CoreLogic House Price Index (HPI) for February out last week, a question came up about why it differs to some other measures out there. This leads to a broader discussion some of the different stats out there and why the interpretation of them is important. 

This relates to other releases from the last week too, including the filled jobs data, business and consumer confidence results and even the affordability report releas...

This week it is all about the Reserve Bank's latest Monetary Policy Statement (MPS), and included OCR decision from last week. 

Perhaps the most important viewpoint was their take on what their role will or should be in response to supporting the recovery from the devastating impact of Cyclone Gabrielle as well as the severe flooding in Auckland a few weeks prior.

But as Nick and Kelvin discuss, the RBNZ quickly outlaid that bot...

Firstly, our thoughts are with all those affected by Cyclone Gabrielle and the damage it has caused. It is heart-breaking to see and hear about all the people affected by this event, the extent of which is still to be known.

There is so much to ponder this week, as the destruction caused by Cyclone Gabrielle poses yet another consideration for Te Pūtea Matua (The Reserve Bank of NZ) as they weigh up all the factors in deciding on th...

**Please note the original upload of this week's podcast was an older file. This has been updated but you may need to delete the original download and re-download this episode to get the proper version**

 With a little less data released last week, the focus for the podcast this week centres around the investor market. There's January's Buyer Classification data to first run through, showing first home buyer...

Coming from a data-heavy week, including the all-important labour market statistics, most of the conversation this week leads to the likelihood of the RBNZ plumping for a 50 basis point lift to the OCR in two weeks' time (rather than the previously expected 75 basis point lift).

As well as the increase in the unemployment rate, the CoreLogic HPI illustrated there's further to go in the property downturn, while consumer con...

With Nick away on holiday in and around Queenstown this week, Kelvin takes the reins and is joined by a special guest, Tom Coad, who is CoreLogic’s Head of Banking and Finance Platforms for NZ and Australia.

We kick off the episode with a brief intro for Tom, and then Kelvin kicks into the data, which is in abundance this week – inflation may have peaked (but is still high), which will trigger another OCR increase on 22nd February. ...

What else could start off this week’s discussion than the change of Prime Minister? Ultimately though, from a property perspective, the guys reckon that it’s ‘business as usual’ for now – what really matters is what will happen to property policy after the Election.

In fact, the biggest item this week is actually Wednesday’s CPI for Q4. If inflation rose above 7.5% (the Reserve Bank’s expectation), we could see some reacti...