The NZ Property Market Podcast

The NZ Property Market Podcast

Brought to you by CoreLogic and produced by Agents TV. Each week co-hosts Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson will bring you all the latest news, stats and insight to keep you up to date with everything to do with the NZ residential property market. Including sales volumes, house price indices, buyer activity, interest rates, loan-to-value ratio restrictions and all of the macro economic factors that influence our largest asset class. Contact us on twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL

Episodes

January 23, 2023 44 min

What else could start off this week’s discussion than the change of Prime Minister? Ultimately though, from a property perspective, the guys reckon that it’s ‘business as usual’ for now – what really matters is what will happen to property policy after the Election.

In fact, the biggest item this week is actually Wednesday’s CPI for Q4. If inflation rose above 7.5% (the Reserve Bank’s expectation), we could see some reaction in high...

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Apologies for the short audio cut-out at about 16 minutes. Please plough through it.

After a busy start to 2023 last week in terms of writing and media appearances, we’re back for the second podcast of the year, and there’s plenty to cover – most notably the guys cover off Kelvin’s ‘opinion piece’ setting out why the loan to value ratio rules won’t be loosened this year. This wasn’t triggered by any ‘whispers’ that we’ve heard; just...

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The CoreLogic House Price Index (HPI) for December provides the perfect platform to close out 2022 as Nick and Kelvin discuss why the moderation in value falls is likely a false dawn. 

Kelvin also wraps up a few other data releases you may have missed over the holidays weeks, most notably and concerning, the weak confidence results.

Plus beware of some of the headlines you may have read, there's a warning for reading too much int...

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For the final episode of the year, where else could we start than with the just-completed FIFA World Cup Final. An early start for Nick and some disappointment for the French friends he was watching it with! But what a game it was.

The guys then review recent data and preview what’s coming up for the final week of the year, including the ANZ business and consumer confidence surveys. The activity measures in these surveys could be pr...

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December 12, 2022 29 min

With no official macro economic data releases in the last week Nick and Kelvin take a look around for any other info and engagements worth reviewing. Migration data was hot off the press but otherwise there’s media coverage regarding mortgagee sales, reduced sales turnover at the suburb level and  Kelvins deeper look at recent investor activity.  

Centrix also released their latest credit indicator report, illustrating a lift in loa...

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December 6, 2022 39 min

The discussion kicks off this week on the topic of house prices, with the CoreLogic Index last week showing further falls. Sure, the drop was smaller than in recent months. But be careful of reaching the conclusion that the downturn might also be over. It probably isn’t, and the ultimate peak for mortgage rates could hold the key as to when property values find a floor.

Indeed, the macro news last week also had a negative tone, such...

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After the hotly anticipated Monetary Policy Statement was released last week Nick and Kelvin have a lot to discuss. From the OCR decision itself, to all the macro-economic forecasts and the language used in subsequent commentary - all with an eye to how the market is shaping up for 2023.

We also got October lending figures last week, Centrix's credit review, consumer confidence results and Xero's Small Business Index to dige...

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November 21, 2022 35 min

While Nick and Kelvin keenly await the next RBNZ Monetary Policy Review, being released on Wednesday, they first take the time to look back a week full of releases.

CoreLogic's Pain & Gain report for Q3, showing the proportion of owners selling at a loss has increased, but is still no where near the levels of previous downturn. 

REINZ latest release included what is likely a false dawn, as their HPI showed a minor increase in...

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November 14, 2022 41 min

A number of releases/announcements from the RBNZ once again dominate the discussion. We've got the reappointment of Governor Orr to discuss, along with their first 5-year review of monetary policy, the proposed framework for the introduction of Dti limits (not until 2024) and a paper analysing the effects of the FLP on funding costs and mortgage rates. 

Outside of RBNZ chat, Kelvin details the key insights from the release of ou...

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After a largely successful weekend of sports results, the dominant property issue for today’s episode is the Reserve Bank’s latest Financial Stability Report (FSR) – the chat may have a negative tone, but that’s the point. The FSR is all about looking at risk, and ‘plausible but severe’ scenarios which we might need to prepare for.

 Nick and Kelvin cover off various aspects of the FSR, including the overall conclusion that our finan...

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October 31, 2022 39 min

A number of data releases from a range of locations, but it still all boils down to businesses - are they investing and hiring - and  consumers - are they still working, borrowing and spending?

The answers are slightly mixed, with businesses not confident but still doing fine and consumers much the same, though the latest RBNZ lending data further reiterates they're not borrowing near as much as they were or could be.

A number of...

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There are no surprises what forms the bulk of this week's podcast - inflation! With the latest CPI data out last week, and it coming as a shock to many, forecasts for the OCR, mortgage interest rates and house prices have been seriously revised. To kick things off Kelvin provides a 'review of the reviews', summarising the response to the inflation data and potential flow through to the housing market.

Amongst a wide-rang...

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October 17, 2022 41 min

After a quick chat about the latest CoreLogic CCCI report on construction costs the focus quickly turns to the state of the market, following the latest REINZ monthly report detailing recent sales volumes and house value movements.

Neither measures provide much positivity for the future, as sales remain slow and values continue to fall, however in slightly better news the recent net migration figures provide a few shards of light at...

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The RBNZ increased the OCR by the expected 50 basis points last week but along with it opined the option of going even harder with a 75 basis point lift. What makes the call even more intriguing was that the Reserve Bank over the ditch (RBA) dialled back their tightening with only a 25 basis point increase

Nick and Kelvin ponder the potential reasons for the different approaches, including consideration of the RBNZ making a mistak...

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Making up for a few quieter weeks of data releases, this week the show is jam packed of official data releases as well as a few other pieces of news which piqued Nick and Kelvin's interest.

Reserve Bank lending data for August leads the discussion, followed by filled jobs, confidence data and dwelling consent figures.

A look ahead to this week sees the CoreLogic HPI out on Wednesday morning, the OCR review happening that afternoo...

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September 27, 2022 37 min

After yet another quiet week for data releases Nick and Kelvin take the opportunity to better discuss the report released last month by the Housing Technical Working Group (MHUD, Treasury, RBNZ) assessing the NZ housing system

Two recent podcasts at 'On the Tiles' and 'When the Facts Change' recently interviewed lead author Dominic Stephens (Chief Economist at Treasury) which lead to a number of great talking point...

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September 19, 2022 24 min

Making up for a quieter week prior, last week had a few of the more higher profile data releases. First up the GDP figures for Q2 were released by Stats NZ, with the main headlining being that we avoided a recession, but as Kelvin regularly points out does it really matter if confidence and sentiment is so low it felt like a recession anyway? And what now for inflation and the OCR?

REINZ also released their sales volumes and index f...

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September 12, 2022 32 min

It was a quieter week of data releases last week with just the CoreLogic Buyer Classification data for August and Kelvin's article on the cost to trade up to discuss. 

Stats NZ's release of migration data just prior to recording is also mentioned, however otherwise it's a look ahead to a busier week of data coming out, including REINZ HPI and sales volumes, the Stats NZ rental index and more importantly the official rele...

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The Corelogic House Price Index showed the downward trend in property values gather steam in August but after providing a bit more detail of the results, Nick also mentions the early signs of some light at the end of the tunnel.

The foundation of the NZ labour market appears to remain as solid as ever too, with Kelvin reporting filled jobs increased again in July and business confidence looks to be rising from the doldrums too.

Build...

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September 1, 2022 34 min

In another special addition podcast, Nick is joined by Mark Harris, Managing Director of Sotheby's International Realty NZ, to discuss all things Queenstown. 

As can often be the case, the Queenstown property market is currently marching to it's own beat and with the borders now open, optimism for the area is high.

Mark started Sotheby's in NZ almost 20 years ago and has extensive experience in the mid-high range property...

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