April 4, 2026 • 12 mins
In this episode of Paradyme Shift, Ryan Garland breaks down one of the most important principles in investing today: following data over hype.
With increasing market uncertainty and emotional decision-making at an all-time high, Ryan explains why relying on trends alone can lead to costly mistakes — and how data-driven strategies create more predictable outcomes.
He shares how Paradyme Companies evaluates opportunities using:
- Population growth and migration trends
- Rent demand and affordability metrics
- Institutional capital movements (BlackRock, Blackstone, etc.)
- Local economic activity and job markets
Ryan also dives into how Paradyme approaches development differently by:
- Prioritizing in-house manufacturing and cost control
- Using third-party market studies and regional data
- Focusing on a small number of asset classes to improve execution and reduce risk
The episode also highlights key investor education topics, including:
- Why most developers chase trends — and why that can be dangerous
- How emotional investing leads to poor decision-making
- The biggest mistakes new investors make when evaluating deals
- Why understanding deal structure is more important than chasing high returns
- The importance of balancing cash flow and long-term equity gains
Ryan reinforces that successful investing isn’t about reacting to what’s “hot” — it’s about understanding why markets move, where capital is flowing, and how to position accordingly.
This episode is a foundational guide for investors looking to make smarter, more disciplined decisions in today’s evolving market.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
SPEAKER_00 (00:20):
Hey everybody, welcome to the Paradigm Shift uh
podcast.
I'm gonna get right into ittoday.
Um, Joe pulled up some of thelatest um requests, but probably
one of the most popularengagements um from people on
all of our content.
And I'm gonna kind of list someof these things out and answer
these things to you.
But one of them is uh why don'twe chase trends?
(00:41):
We follow the data.
Data is massive.
You'll hear me say it about itall the time.
And I think right now theworld's already burning enough,
right?
We we don't want to try to leanon our own understanding.
There's things that we're gonnamiss.
I you know, to try to be more,you know, feeling driven right
now, I think is just naive.
I think what you need to dobefore you make any decisions is
look at data, look at where theworld's going, where spending
(01:02):
habits are going, what babyboomers are doing, uh,
healthcare, all of the thingsthat the wealth is moving into,
right?
So if you look at BlackRock,Blackstone, which way are they
gonna invest their money?
Which assets are they investinginto more heavy?
You know, those are the thingsthat are really important.
So if you're not tracking thedata, um, you're you're gonna
make a big mistake in yourinvestment um um endeavor or
(01:26):
journey.
Uh the other thing is thetrends.
The trends are part of thatdata, right?
What's trendy?
For example, barn dominums,steel building methods,
everything that happened withfires uh in LA, you know, uh
state farm leaving California.
I mean, it is just unbelievableof all of the things that are
going on that you have toconsider and then going after
those trends and understandingwhy they exist and then finding
(01:49):
out how those things are beingbuilt.
How is it actually beingaccomplished?
Okay, great.
I understand why, but like howis it actually being
accomplished?
You know, for us for us, we'reactually manufacturing a lot of
our own buildings right here inLake Cavas, so or at least a lot
of the components.
And then we'll go to maybeanother manufacturer, but we're
bringing it all in-house so wecan kind of control the
narrative, control the cost,control our timeline to mitigate
(02:09):
risk.
Um, so there's a lot of thosethings that you have to
understand the data, but thenwhy?
And then understand thateveryone that's going to be a
part of that trend actually hasthe ability to perform as well.
So it's not just the data thatwill kind of give you a spark.
It's how is it actually goingand all of the things in between
(02:30):
that also have supporting datatoo to accomplish what the goal
is, right?
So you have uh you know, youhave us kind of looking at
things from a different lens, Ithink most more than most, but
also very institutionallydriven.
We're getting third-party marketstudies, we're using specific
groups that all they do is focuson the southwest as an example,
or they have a uh a very goodunderstanding of this area, like
(02:51):
an appraiser would, right?
Those type of things.
Um, let's see.
Why most developers build basedon what's hot?
I would agree.
So I think I tell people thisall the time: builders and
developers are just kind of likebig kids that like Legos, okay?
So they could drive by aproperty and go, you know what?
It would be so cool to build agas station there, or so cool to
build apartments there, or socool.
But that doesn't mean that it'sgood for the city or it's good
(03:14):
for the community, right?
You so so, in essence, buildersand developers are just gigantic
children.
So you got to know that.
Um, but I think that's that isthe case.
Developers uh by nature like tobuild stuff they want to build,
which is great.
I do too.
You know, people go, hey Ryan,why aren't you building more
storage?
I'm like, well, storage justisn't sexy.
I mean, it's great numbers,great investments, but I just
(03:35):
don't really want to do it.
I'm at a point in my life whereI want to build things that I
genuinely like, but if I cankeep the same investment
strategy and structure as the asthe storage, then that's what
we'll do, right?
So you you kind of have to, youyou gotta have to know and
understand why developers starta process and that most of them,
80% of them, are just big kids,but you really have to drill
down into the trends in thedata.
(03:56):
So, okay, how paradigm usespopulation growth, rent demand,
migration trends, um, how how welook at those.
So rent demand uh is good whenyou're building apartments,
right?
Like how what's the migrationout there?
What's the affordability numberlook like?
What are what's the job uhmarket look like?
So when you're looking at rentalprofiles, if you're building,
(04:16):
like for example, apartments,that's a different, that's a
different data strategy, right?
You're by by nature, rentals forapartments are more lower income
overall.
So when you look at the theaverage medium income in a city,
it's a little bit 20, 25% lowerthan that, is where you want to
land in regards to your rentsfor whatever building or project
(04:39):
that you're developing.
So kind of keep that's like kindof a metric to follow, right?
So there's a lot of those kindof rule of thumbs that you can
use to kind of vet projects, butthat's one that's one big
component as far as rent uh rentgrowth, rent understanding.
Um, let's see, populationgrowth, of course, goes the same
way, right?
We all know Texas is boomingbecause people are migrating to
(05:00):
Texas.
We all know certain parts ofTennessee or Florida, right?
People are leaving uh New York.
For example, a lot of privateequity now that's leaving New
York and Chicago, they're allgoing to Fort Lauderdale.
I think there was a publicationout there floating around
talking about there's moreprivate equity firms in Fort
Lauderdale than anywhere else inthe country now, because
everybody and in companies weregetting out of New York and
again, Chicago.
So, you know, those are thethings that just happen, and you
(05:22):
want to follow that andunderstand why they made the
decisions.
And and so a lot of that popgrowth is money is gonna follow
as well.
So and and mind you, when likeI'll use Havisu as an example.
When people are retiring andthey're moving here, they're
also moving their money here,right?
They're buying their houses,they're buying their stuff,
they're gonna go get a creditunion, uh, you know, for
(05:45):
example, account, they're gonnastart banking at maybe a local
uh bank.
They start moving their moneyhere.
They open up and maybe anotherbusiness or or they buy you know
more real estate here.
They just move their wealthhere.
So when pop growth goes on, morewealth is gonna go there, which
means more job demand.
The list kind of goes on.
So you have a much better uhoutlook on making an investment,
(06:07):
and obviously depending on whatyou're trying to uh trying to
create.
So that's important.
Let's see.
Um, I keep scrolling here, soforgive me.
Uh examples of what you doavoid.
Oh, what we do to avoid umcertain assets.
I would say, you know, we'rekind of we were a little bit
more diversified um and spreadout, you know, before the
pandemic.
(06:27):
Uh, you know, we were a lot moreinvolved in more things.
I think what you're gonna see isthat we're kind of honing in our
craft more and really startingto become more professionals at
like one asset or two assetclasses.
Um, that's where we want tohover.
I think, you know, the businessis hard enough.
Uh, every project is difficultenough that it really does take
a lot of energy and a lot ofpolish and a lot of hand holding
(06:51):
to get anything built and donein today's environment.
It's just so different than itwas, you know, 10, 15 years ago.
So it's really, really importantthat we stay on that track and
stay super focused on that typeof development or asset class
and kind of focused as a firm.
So, one of the reasons why Iwant to share that with you guys
is because most people investbased off of emotion, not
(07:11):
necessarily the data.
And and and that's good, right?
You want to get the warm andfuzzies about the developer, the
the development.
If you're just a hands-offinvestor, more of a limited
partner, you know, you want toget the warm and fuzzies to make
sure that you're, you know,going getting the into the right
uh getting into the right group.
However, really take a look atour, you know, like our pitch
decks as an example.
We cite where we're getting thedata from that is ultimately
(07:33):
helping us make the decisionsthat we're making and why we're
going so far into a specificasset.
So, you know, again, becausepeople are more emotional
nowadays and because of thevolatility, it is important that
you really do consider the dataas being a uh uh kind of your
true north on your decisionmaking for your uh for your
wealth creation or uh preservingyour wealth.
Okay, guys, got another one foryou.
(07:55):
Uh the biggest mistakes newinvestors make.
I think this is reallyimportant.
Um, not trying to drive you intoa direction.
I think these are going to bemassive bullet points for
consideration as to why peoplemake big mistakes.
And to be candid, I getinvestors all the time that are
current investors that have madeinvestments into other uh
syndications that are justhaving much larger issues than I
could have ever expected.
(08:16):
And it's because they didn'tunderstand the structure.
So chasing returns instead ofunderstanding the structure,
that is the most common.
As an example, when I have thebarn caves, the returns on the
barn caves are much higher.
So we get a lot more uh hits onthat investment.
So, regardless of the term, theysee 30% plus and they're like, I
(08:36):
want to know about that onerather than the 20% plus.
They just people naturally go towhere the money's at.
So by nature, people aregreedier and so they want to
know where I'm gonna make themost money.
So that is a problem.
I think people need to identifyand try to understand the
structure first to then identifythe risk and how real that 30%
(08:58):
returns really is, right?
Because I'd say other operatorsand developers, they use those
numbers to try to get yourattention and then get you in,
but they really didn't weren'table to paint the picture and
explain the structure.
And investors really didn't knowwhat they're getting themselves
into from the beginning.
So that's a big, that's a bigthing.
So you have uh you have thatchasing returns over
(09:18):
understanding the structure, notknowing the operator and and the
misunderstanding.
So again, not knowing what it isthat you got yourself into.
Timelines, liquidity,waterfalls.
That's another thing.
You know, people, a lot ofpeople are looking for cash
flow, but they don't think thatequity investment opportunities
have cash flow components to it,which one of ours does, the
other one does not.
Meaning you can invest intosomething where you have a big
(09:40):
equity kicker like a 30% returnon the back end, but you get
cash flow throughout theprocess.
So you're getting cash flow a,you know, each year.
So you're getting some incomewhile you wait for that big
profit participation on the backend, right?
So again, not knowing, okay, Iknow I need cash flow right now,
but I also want to make a bunchof money on the back end uh
because you need it both, youknow, you may need both of it,
(10:01):
but you're unable to identifywhich investments or operators
have that.
So, you know, that's a big thingtoo.
People want cash flow and peoplewant equity kickers on the back
and they want to build theirwealth on top of generating cash
flow and putting their money towork.
Um, let's see.
Uh, most investors don't losemoney because uh because of the
market, they lose money becauseof the decisions.
(10:21):
I would I would agree with that.
I would say that most in mostdevelopers, it's not that
they're making bad decisions.
It's just that they're trying tonavigate shifts in the game.
And the most important thing youdo as a developer is stay on
track based on your structureand planning.
Where you mitigate the majorityof your risk is in planning,
(10:42):
design planning, making sure youhave the construction
management, make sure you havethe right numbers for you know
your line items, what you'rewhere you're gonna get your
materials, what your lead timesare, what your install times
are, which you know, how manysubs have how much labor, and
when how long they it's gonnatake for them to deliver, you
know, logistics too, right?
So it's all kind of comes aroundthe management and planning, is
(11:02):
where the majority of the riskis.
And as long as you've planned itproperly, you've you've got a
track record on how to navigateuh landmines, and you have a
good group of people, youtypically would do really well.
So um that is it for thatconcept.
If any of this segment was ofvalue to you, I encourage you to
take a look at some of the otherwebinars and what it is that
we're doing as a firm.
(11:24):
I manage a hundred milliondollar debt fund now, which is a
distressed asset fund.
I do a lot of things and privateequity from equity opportunities
and development and identifyingmaterials all the way down to
opening up gyms.
We just opened up a gym in LakeHavasu.
We'd encourage you to take alook at the Family Office
Society website, see what typeof product that we're bringing
to the town, and look how fastwe ramped up with memberships
(11:46):
and showed proof of concept ofthe way the world is moving, but
we use the data to support ourdecision making with that
investment.
We'd love to continue toencourage you to watch what it
is we're doing and how we'remitigating risk through these
unique times.
I really appreciate theopportunity to earn your
business.
And if there's something thatyou guys want me to touch on or
talk about or topics, feel freeto DM right, you know, right on
(12:08):
this post.
Let me know what it is you'dlike for me to touch on so I can
go ahead and give you more valueand continue to hit some of the
things that matter most.
So thank you very much forwatching.
We'll see you soon.
Hey everybody, welcome to the Paradigm Shift uh
podcast.
I'm gonna get right into ittoday.
Um, Joe pulled up some of thelatest um requests, but probably
one of the most popularengagements um from people on
all of our content.
And I'm gonna kind of list someof these things out and answer
these things to you.
But one of them is uh why don'twe chase trends?
(00:41):
We follow the data.
Data is massive.
You'll hear me say it about itall the time.
And I think right now theworld's already burning enough,
right?
We we don't want to try to leanon our own understanding.
There's things that we're gonnamiss.
I you know, to try to be more,you know, feeling driven right
now, I think is just naive.
I think what you need to dobefore you make any decisions is
look at data, look at where theworld's going, where spending
(01:02):
habits are going, what babyboomers are doing, uh,
healthcare, all of the thingsthat the wealth is moving into,
right?
So if you look at BlackRock,Blackstone, which way are they
gonna invest their money?
Which assets are they investinginto more heavy?
You know, those are the thingsthat are really important.
So if you're not tracking thedata, um, you're you're gonna
make a big mistake in yourinvestment um um endeavor or
(01:26):
journey.
Uh the other thing is thetrends.
The trends are part of thatdata, right?
What's trendy?
For example, barn dominums,steel building methods,
everything that happened withfires uh in LA, you know, uh
state farm leaving California.
I mean, it is just unbelievableof all of the things that are
going on that you have toconsider and then going after
those trends and understandingwhy they exist and then finding
(01:49):
out how those things are beingbuilt.
How is it actually beingaccomplished?
Okay, great.
I understand why, but like howis it actually being
accomplished?
You know, for us for us, we'reactually manufacturing a lot of
our own buildings right here inLake Cavas, so or at least a lot
of the components.
And then we'll go to maybeanother manufacturer, but we're
bringing it all in-house so wecan kind of control the
narrative, control the cost,control our timeline to mitigate
(02:09):
risk.
Um, so there's a lot of thosethings that you have to
understand the data, but thenwhy?
And then understand thateveryone that's going to be a
part of that trend actually hasthe ability to perform as well.
So it's not just the data thatwill kind of give you a spark.
It's how is it actually goingand all of the things in between
(02:30):
that also have supporting datatoo to accomplish what the goal
is, right?
So you have uh you know, youhave us kind of looking at
things from a different lens, Ithink most more than most, but
also very institutionallydriven.
We're getting third-party marketstudies, we're using specific
groups that all they do is focuson the southwest as an example,
or they have a uh a very goodunderstanding of this area, like
(02:51):
an appraiser would, right?
Those type of things.
Um, let's see.
Why most developers build basedon what's hot?
I would agree.
So I think I tell people thisall the time: builders and
developers are just kind of likebig kids that like Legos, okay?
So they could drive by aproperty and go, you know what?
It would be so cool to build agas station there, or so cool to
build apartments there, or socool.
But that doesn't mean that it'sgood for the city or it's good
(03:14):
for the community, right?
You so so, in essence, buildersand developers are just gigantic
children.
So you got to know that.
Um, but I think that's that isthe case.
Developers uh by nature like tobuild stuff they want to build,
which is great.
I do too.
You know, people go, hey Ryan,why aren't you building more
storage?
I'm like, well, storage justisn't sexy.
I mean, it's great numbers,great investments, but I just
(03:35):
don't really want to do it.
I'm at a point in my life whereI want to build things that I
genuinely like, but if I cankeep the same investment
strategy and structure as the asthe storage, then that's what
we'll do, right?
So you you kind of have to, youyou gotta have to know and
understand why developers starta process and that most of them,
80% of them, are just big kids,but you really have to drill
down into the trends in thedata.
(03:56):
So, okay, how paradigm usespopulation growth, rent demand,
migration trends, um, how how welook at those.
So rent demand uh is good whenyou're building apartments,
right?
Like how what's the migrationout there?
What's the affordability numberlook like?
What are what's the job uhmarket look like?
So when you're looking at rentalprofiles, if you're building,
(04:16):
like for example, apartments,that's a different, that's a
different data strategy, right?
You're by by nature, rentals forapartments are more lower income
overall.
So when you look at the theaverage medium income in a city,
it's a little bit 20, 25% lowerthan that, is where you want to
land in regards to your rentsfor whatever building or project
(04:39):
that you're developing.
So kind of keep that's like kindof a metric to follow, right?
So there's a lot of those kindof rule of thumbs that you can
use to kind of vet projects, butthat's one that's one big
component as far as rent uh rentgrowth, rent understanding.
Um, let's see, populationgrowth, of course, goes the same
way, right?
We all know Texas is boomingbecause people are migrating to
(05:00):
Texas.
We all know certain parts ofTennessee or Florida, right?
People are leaving uh New York.
For example, a lot of privateequity now that's leaving New
York and Chicago, they're allgoing to Fort Lauderdale.
I think there was a publicationout there floating around
talking about there's moreprivate equity firms in Fort
Lauderdale than anywhere else inthe country now, because
everybody and in companies weregetting out of New York and
again, Chicago.
So, you know, those are thethings that just happen, and you
(05:22):
want to follow that andunderstand why they made the
decisions.
And and so a lot of that popgrowth is money is gonna follow
as well.
So and and mind you, when likeI'll use Havisu as an example.
When people are retiring andthey're moving here, they're
also moving their money here,right?
They're buying their houses,they're buying their stuff,
they're gonna go get a creditunion, uh, you know, for
(05:45):
example, account, they're gonnastart banking at maybe a local
uh bank.
They start moving their moneyhere.
They open up and maybe anotherbusiness or or they buy you know
more real estate here.
They just move their wealthhere.
So when pop growth goes on, morewealth is gonna go there, which
means more job demand.
The list kind of goes on.
So you have a much better uhoutlook on making an investment,
(06:07):
and obviously depending on whatyou're trying to uh trying to
create.
So that's important.
Let's see.
Um, I keep scrolling here, soforgive me.
Uh examples of what you doavoid.
Oh, what we do to avoid umcertain assets.
I would say, you know, we'rekind of we were a little bit
more diversified um and spreadout, you know, before the
pandemic.
(06:27):
Uh, you know, we were a lot moreinvolved in more things.
I think what you're gonna see isthat we're kind of honing in our
craft more and really startingto become more professionals at
like one asset or two assetclasses.
Um, that's where we want tohover.
I think, you know, the businessis hard enough.
Uh, every project is difficultenough that it really does take
a lot of energy and a lot ofpolish and a lot of hand holding
(06:51):
to get anything built and donein today's environment.
It's just so different than itwas, you know, 10, 15 years ago.
So it's really, really importantthat we stay on that track and
stay super focused on that typeof development or asset class
and kind of focused as a firm.
So, one of the reasons why Iwant to share that with you guys
is because most people investbased off of emotion, not
(07:11):
necessarily the data.
And and and that's good, right?
You want to get the warm andfuzzies about the developer, the
the development.
If you're just a hands-offinvestor, more of a limited
partner, you know, you want toget the warm and fuzzies to make
sure that you're, you know,going getting the into the right
uh getting into the right group.
However, really take a look atour, you know, like our pitch
decks as an example.
We cite where we're getting thedata from that is ultimately
(07:33):
helping us make the decisionsthat we're making and why we're
going so far into a specificasset.
So, you know, again, becausepeople are more emotional
nowadays and because of thevolatility, it is important that
you really do consider the dataas being a uh uh kind of your
true north on your decisionmaking for your uh for your
wealth creation or uh preservingyour wealth.
Okay, guys, got another one foryou.
(07:55):
Uh the biggest mistakes newinvestors make.
I think this is reallyimportant.
Um, not trying to drive you intoa direction.
I think these are going to bemassive bullet points for
consideration as to why peoplemake big mistakes.
And to be candid, I getinvestors all the time that are
current investors that have madeinvestments into other uh
syndications that are justhaving much larger issues than I
could have ever expected.
(08:16):
And it's because they didn'tunderstand the structure.
So chasing returns instead ofunderstanding the structure,
that is the most common.
As an example, when I have thebarn caves, the returns on the
barn caves are much higher.
So we get a lot more uh hits onthat investment.
So, regardless of the term, theysee 30% plus and they're like, I
(08:36):
want to know about that onerather than the 20% plus.
They just people naturally go towhere the money's at.
So by nature, people aregreedier and so they want to
know where I'm gonna make themost money.
So that is a problem.
I think people need to identifyand try to understand the
structure first to then identifythe risk and how real that 30%
(08:58):
returns really is, right?
Because I'd say other operatorsand developers, they use those
numbers to try to get yourattention and then get you in,
but they really didn't weren'table to paint the picture and
explain the structure.
And investors really didn't knowwhat they're getting themselves
into from the beginning.
So that's a big, that's a bigthing.
So you have uh you have thatchasing returns over
(09:18):
understanding the structure, notknowing the operator and and the
misunderstanding.
So again, not knowing what it isthat you got yourself into.
Timelines, liquidity,waterfalls.
That's another thing.
You know, people, a lot ofpeople are looking for cash
flow, but they don't think thatequity investment opportunities
have cash flow components to it,which one of ours does, the
other one does not.
Meaning you can invest intosomething where you have a big
(09:40):
equity kicker like a 30% returnon the back end, but you get
cash flow throughout theprocess.
So you're getting cash flow a,you know, each year.
So you're getting some incomewhile you wait for that big
profit participation on the backend, right?
So again, not knowing, okay, Iknow I need cash flow right now,
but I also want to make a bunchof money on the back end uh
because you need it both, youknow, you may need both of it,
(10:01):
but you're unable to identifywhich investments or operators
have that.
So, you know, that's a big thingtoo.
People want cash flow and peoplewant equity kickers on the back
and they want to build theirwealth on top of generating cash
flow and putting their money towork.
Um, let's see.
Uh, most investors don't losemoney because uh because of the
market, they lose money becauseof the decisions.
(10:21):
I would I would agree with that.
I would say that most in mostdevelopers, it's not that
they're making bad decisions.
It's just that they're trying tonavigate shifts in the game.
And the most important thing youdo as a developer is stay on
track based on your structureand planning.
Where you mitigate the majorityof your risk is in planning,
(10:42):
design planning, making sure youhave the construction
management, make sure you havethe right numbers for you know
your line items, what you'rewhere you're gonna get your
materials, what your lead timesare, what your install times
are, which you know, how manysubs have how much labor, and
when how long they it's gonnatake for them to deliver, you
know, logistics too, right?
So it's all kind of comes aroundthe management and planning, is
(11:02):
where the majority of the riskis.
And as long as you've planned itproperly, you've you've got a
track record on how to navigateuh landmines, and you have a
good group of people, youtypically would do really well.
So um that is it for thatconcept.
If any of this segment was ofvalue to you, I encourage you to
take a look at some of the otherwebinars and what it is that
we're doing as a firm.
(11:24):
I manage a hundred milliondollar debt fund now, which is a
distressed asset fund.
I do a lot of things and privateequity from equity opportunities
and development and identifyingmaterials all the way down to
opening up gyms.
We just opened up a gym in LakeHavasu.
We'd encourage you to take alook at the Family Office
Society website, see what typeof product that we're bringing
to the town, and look how fastwe ramped up with memberships
(11:46):
and showed proof of concept ofthe way the world is moving, but
we use the data to support ourdecision making with that
investment.
We'd love to continue toencourage you to watch what it
is we're doing and how we'remitigating risk through these
unique times.
I really appreciate theopportunity to earn your
business.
And if there's something thatyou guys want me to touch on or
talk about or topics, feel freeto DM right, you know, right on
(12:08):
this post.
Let me know what it is you'dlike for me to touch on so I can
go ahead and give you more valueand continue to hit some of the
things that matter most.
So thank you very much forwatching.
We'll see you soon.
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