August 2, 2023 • 29 mins
On today’s episode, Jason kicks things off with a few quick thoughts on the USWNT’s disappointing performance thus far in the Women’s World Cup. Later, J-Mac is joined by The Athletic’s Mike Sando to discuss his controversial 2023 NFL Quarterback Tiers poll. During the interview, Sando discusses why Lamar Jackson has never been viewed as a Tier 1 guy, the narrative that Josh Allen is destined to regress this upcoming season, the likelihood that Russell Wilson actually starts every game this season for Sean Payton, whether or not guys like Kirk Cousins or Derek Carr can jump up a tier with good seasons in 2023 and much more!
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
The volume.
Speaker 2 (00:09):
This is Straight Fire with Jason McIntire. What is up
straight Fire, fam, It's me Jason McIntyre. Straight Fire for Wednesday,
August second. Got a great guest today on the podcast,
Mike Sando from The Athletic. He is the author of
the Tears piece that is sweeping the internet as everybody
(00:30):
gets ready for fantasy football gambling NFL. We're now what
thirty six hours away from Jeth's Brown's and preseason action
fully begins in earnest next weekend. I'll be out of
town next weekend. Part's unknown. It's an exciting podcast. You
guys are gonna like it. Sando and I kind of
disagree on some quarterbacks, agree on some other stuff, and
(00:51):
he talks about the process and what he you know,
what it was like seeing some of these massive leaps,
some of the I mean, Jalen Hurts's leap is quantum
and it's like one year. Really, So we get into that,
you guys will like it real quick. I did. Before
we get the Sando. I want to touch on this
two things actually, So first of all, US women's soccer team,
in the middle of the night laid a massive egg.
(01:13):
It would have been colossal and historically bad. If Portugal's
shot in the ninety first minute didn't hit the post
to win in the net, then we would have lost.
US settle for zero zero tie. They advance as the
number two seed, which has thrown off so many things. Folks,
it is so bad for the US, Like, you don't
understand how bad this tie was. Overall, they've played like garbage.
(01:36):
I would say, in five out of the six halfs
they've been equal or worse than their opponent. They now
play Sunday at five am. Then they play next Friday,
assuming they win at three thirty am the semi finals,
they would play in the worst game at four am,
like because they got put into like the second tier
(01:58):
because they finished second in the group. They're not getting
the favorable time slot. Everybody anticipated, Oh the US, they
might win their third World Cup. They'll be in their
favorite time slot. They're gonna win their group and advance.
And now it's like, whoa, this is not good, not
gonna be good at all for Fox and worse yet,
let's be real, this women's team does not look good.
They don't look ready for prime time. Carly Lloyd going
(02:20):
after them, it's just not great, you know, watching it.
I'm on a couple text threads with some dads who
play soccer in my area and they coach and everything.
They someone play college and it's like the coaching does
not look great and the team looks old and slow.
And I would just say the one thing that I've noticed,
and again this is on a granular level, but anytime
(02:40):
you win a championship, the targets on your back. Everybody's
coming for you. They're giving their a game all the time.
We won two in a row. Vietnam came out and
remember the spread was six and a half. I was like,
that's a layup. The US will smoke them, and it
was like one nothing at halftime. Now they did outshoot them,
I think twenty three zero, twenty seven nothing, something like that.
But Vietnam played incredible. Their goalie was outstanding, and the
(03:03):
US only won three to nothing. By the way, Netherlands
beat them seven nothing, and they didn't get the number
one seed in the group. And then the uninspiring tie
against Netherlands when they trailed for much of the match,
and then the Portugal game which they slept walked through,
was like geez, I mean if that goal had gone
into the US is going home. All this nonsense that
they've been talking about. We don't get the respect of
(03:25):
the men's team. We don't. It's almost like they focus
too much on that and less on the soccer. They
just don't look nearly as good. Disappointing stuff, but it's
not over. They could still win the World Cup. The
other story is the Major League Baseball trade deadline. Like
ten to fourteen days ago looked awesome. It was like
exciting because what Tani was in it. And then the
Angels decided we're gonna make a push, We're gonna keep Otani,
(03:46):
and it was like it lost all the juice. And
then the big move was Verlander. Ben Verlander was a
guest on the Pod last week. His brother Justin got
traded back to the Astros. The Mets fire sale is
in full swing. Just an absolute dumpster fire in Shay
or do they still call Shay or No City Bank,
I'm sorry, City City Bank Park. I think it is.
I have I I don't remember, it's been so long
(04:08):
since I lived in New York. But all in all,
like the Mets have to be the least impressive team
this season. The biggest disappointment. Yankees will get to the playoffs.
I'm confident in that. But this o Tani thing, it's
like the excitement of him maybe moving teams was juicy
as hell, and it would have been the double bonus
because somebody would have had him for three months on
a rental, been wooing him to try to secure him,
(04:31):
and that he would have hit free agency and it
would have been another mad scramble. So baseball really missed
out here on some fun, fun times. And I know
Anaheim should not care about that, but if they lose
him for nothing, they sure as hell will all right.
Without further adod, let's get to our guest, Mike Sando
of The Athletic. You know, Jason likes to think he
knows everything when it comes to sports. I know what
(04:53):
sports fans want, but for everything he doesn't. He knows
a guy who does.
Speaker 1 (04:57):
Let's just say I know a guy who knows the
guy who knows another guy.
Speaker 2 (05:03):
All right, let's welcome into straight fire Mike Sando of
the Athletic. Obviously, he is the man of the hour
this week in football circles because of his quarterback tiers list.
We broke it down on yesterday's podcast. He's been doing
the media rounds, getting a billion questions. Mike, how you
holding up in this media onslaught. Everybody's got to ask you.
Why is why quarterback rated so low? How you handling
(05:23):
it all?
Speaker 1 (05:23):
It's you know, really well. I love this week and
it feels like it's even more than in the past
this week. I don't know if it's a different buzz
or or what, but I have been bouncing around. In fact,
I was doing earlier today. I was doing something in
Pittsburgh and we went over like the start of my
next one, so I could see Cleveland was actually calling in.
(05:45):
We got They don't even know this, but like they're
in the same division that Cleveland was calling in. I said, hey,
I gotta got I got another one coming in. So
that's unusual, you know, to have so many that they
were overlapping each other. But it's a fun thing.
Speaker 2 (05:59):
Listen, We're not gonna break down every guy, obviously, but
I do have some questions about rising falling. I love,
by the way, the presentation now, there's like a drop
down tab on the Athletic you can compare, for instance,
Jalen Hurts last year heading into last season, medium grade,
nothing special, really got embarrassed in that playoff game against Tampa.
And then Jalen Hurts adds aj Brown on the outside,
(06:22):
Shane Stikeen dials up some greatness and now Jalen Hurts
is like a superstar in the NFL. But how do
you handle when league executives and these people you interview
are saying, listen, it's just one season. We need to
pump the brakes.
Speaker 1 (06:36):
It's the number one difference I think between in the
league and out of the league, right I think on
the out of the league, we go week to week. Man,
we're living in the moment a little bit, and some
people are like, hey, schoon so has had a good September,
where would he be in the tears? You know? And
that's not really how it is in the league. So
there's a little bit of a delay on this thing. Like,
(07:00):
for example, Russell Wilson plummeted from last year, but he
didn't go like all the way to garbage, you know.
I mean he dropped a tier and that's probably appropriate.
Or Jalen Hurts is in the same shoes as like
Lamar Jackson was when Lamar won MVP. He went right
to the top of Tier two and people are like, well,
how you're the MVP, how can you not be Tier one?
(07:20):
And it's like, well, people want to see it again
and they have some questions about his passing and just
whether the passing could come around enough for them to
advance in the playoffs. Well, we're two three years later,
Lamar still solidly in Tier two, but he hasn't really
made that jump into Tier one, and no one's asking
me right now, Hey, how come he's not up with Burrow? Right?
So sometimes that little bit of a delay or just
(07:42):
an extra year is warranted moving him up or down. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (07:46):
I also want to ask about Trevor Lawrence, who, you know,
everybody's high on coming out of Clemson. They loved him.
I loved him, but there seems to be like a
wide gap on what he is. A lot of people
obviously like him, but I did look at Focus only
had him as the fifteenth graded quarterback last year. DVA
loves him a lot more, they had him sixth. How
(08:06):
did you handle him with the Jags, because if memory serves,
they were three and seven to start last season and
nobody was talking about Trevor Lawrence being a Tier two
Tier one quarterback, and all of a sudden, they get
hot down the stretch. They win a playoff game, coming
back from a massive deficit. And now it's like Trevor
Lawrence season. I don't know, I like Lawrence, but you know,
he seems a little bit high.
Speaker 1 (08:28):
Interesting. So Trevor Lawrence moved into the middle of the
second tier. He's just beneath Lamar Jackson, just ahead of
Dak Prescott, who's obviously a lot more proven. I think
people are buying the upside now. They see the situation
in Jacksonville as having stabilized. They like Jet Doug Peterson generally,
there's good weaponry around him. There's actually a good team.
I think the defense is good. So I think people
(08:50):
are seeing where this is headed and they're not putting
him in Tier one. Where did he get three Tier
one votes? So three people out of fifty said, you
know what, I'm all in Trevor Lawrence. Here we go.
But I think for the most part, people really bought
into the second half of last year. Now that said,
before that, even when even though everyone knew urban Meyer
to blame all of that, I think he was sort
(09:11):
of disappointing and people expected more from him and really
have expected better accuracy from him. Now that seemed to
come around the second half of last year, But that
was one thing where like people were questioning whether he
could get to Tier one more a year ago than now.
Speaker 2 (09:30):
I'm a Jets fan, I was born in New York.
I root for them. That's the one team I like
root for. And I was not keen on bringing Aaron
Rodgers on board. Old guy ornery battling the front office
in Green Bay. And let's be real, after the two MVPs, Mike,
he fell precipitously. He didn't fall like Russell Wilson, but
he felt and it doesn't feel like he was treated
(09:51):
the same way Russ was in his fall. Now, I
don't know how much of that is a projection onto
the Jets where he's reunited with Hackett, whatever we think
of Hackett, and they have Garrett Wilson and better weapons
perceived on the outside than the Packers did. Last year.
Was Rogers a difficult one for you?
Speaker 1 (10:09):
So in the past, like the voters stood by Rogers
no matter what. Remember the end of McCarthy. It didn't
look good. There was kind of whispers in media not whispers.
People were saying, hey, this guy has declined. You know
you could all those stats were talking about EPA, DVOA,
all that stuff was being used to say that Rogers
didn't have it at that time, though everyone kept him
in Tier one. In fact, before this year, four hundred
(10:32):
and one of four hundred and eight votes for Rogers
over the last decade were in Tier one. Okay, he
had seven Tier one vote Tier two votes. Ever in
nine years, this year he has twenty. So there are
some people hopping off of that train. And I think
some of it is a combination of the age. He's
going to be forty this year, so people sort of
kind of start to see you decline at a certain age.
(10:53):
I think that happened to Brady. Remember twenty nineteen, Brady
doesn't look right like he's done with the Patriots. Weaponry
wasn't great, the offense just kind of stalled, and people said,
you know what this is it. He's old. This is
where he declines. And he was able to get in
a good situation, probably be motivated, and stay healthy, and
(11:15):
he played pretty much Tier one ball. I think he
led the league in a lot of categories that first
year in Tampa. So I think Rogers has that in
him with a little bit of a concern over the
injuries and durability. I think that's where seventeen game season,
as noted in the piece, fourteen games on turf this year,
only for last year. That's a little bit interesting for
(11:36):
someone who's had some lower leg injuries, was injured last year.
Tough division, might get knocked around a little bit. New
offensive line, everyone learning the protections, right, It's not the
same guys that he's had, which is a huge priority
for him. That's why they had all those guys like Lazard.
Speaker 2 (11:52):
You know, that's a great nugget. Fourteen games on turf.
I had not considered that. This is why you know,
this is why you got the goods, all right. I
do want to go to Josh Allen and the Bill
season last year was weird because they were steamrolling everybody,
leading in point differential, I think, and then that Bengals
game happens and it kind of throws everything off down
the stretch. They end up not getting home field advantage,
(12:15):
they have to face the Bengals, they get smashed, and
now it's like whoa Buffalo's going to fall back? And
you know everybody loves Josh Allen. I'm gonna give you
two stats, Mike that I'm sure you're aware of. Pro
Football Focus had Alan with the first well leading the
NFL in turnover worthy plays last year, and he also
led the NFL in red zone interceptions. Yet he's solidly
(12:36):
in Tier one. I get that he had a lot
of touchdown passes looked great last year. I just based
on the way they've finished the season, should we be cautious?
Maybe that's over a too strong a word. How should
we feel about Alan heading into the season?
Speaker 1 (12:50):
He actually he actually moved up in his average vote
this year. That surprised me a little bit. Now Burrow
passed them, like Burrow moved up more. But I kind
of thought there might be a little bit more questioning
of Josh Allen then there ended up being this year.
But I think you have to kind of step back
and say, wait a minute, this is a team that
was kind of top five on both sides of the
(13:11):
ball for the most part. Yes, he did put the
ball in Harm's way, but I think like that's kind
of part of him. He's kind of a superman. You know.
The concerns I would have for him. Are that much
usage and running, you know, is going to catch up
to your body. I don't care if you're as big
as Cam Newton and Josh Allen, it just does eventually.
I mean Cam hit a cliff, you know, after about
(13:33):
ten years. Cam was not the same guy Josh Allen's
way earlier in that throws the ball better, but he
runs it a lot and takes a lot of hits
and kind of goes down swinging a lot. Right, that's
what we're talking about with some of those turnover worthy plays.
He doesn't really live to see another day enough, and
I think that's an area of growth for him that
(13:54):
could be had. They've talked about it a little bit
this offseason, but he's got to kind of actually do it.
Speaker 2 (13:59):
Based on voting, Mike, was there any quarterback that you
felt when you saw the results, you were like, I
just disagree totally. I don't see it that way. I've
got this guy higher or lower who was the quarterback
that stuck out to you the most?
Speaker 1 (14:12):
So I'm so kind of on the inside myself and
talking to all these guys, I kind of agree with
the way that it came down. Although right, here's my
two kind of like right on the Tier two three borderline,
like Cousins improved, like Cousins is always kind of right
around there, but he moved up from Tier three into
Tier two, And I'm like, was there something we didn't
(14:33):
know about Kirk Cousins. Are people overvaluing the fact that
they won all those close games? And then you know,
when you look at it, he did have eight fourth
quarter game winning drives and that is tied for the
most in a season since nineteen sixty according to Pro
Football Reference, So he does get some credit for that.
I thought also, people were nicer to Kyler Murray than
(14:54):
I was respecting. I mean, Kyler Murray got one Tier
one vote. Can you believe that?
Speaker 2 (14:58):
Oh my gosh.
Speaker 1 (15:00):
Yeah. And I used to quote from the guy who
did it. I mean, the guy was like, look, they
have a lot of problems around there that aren't him.
I mean, when they were a playoff team recently, it
wasn't because of any reason except for him. He showed
he can make the plays and carry him. Now he's
got to show the leadership and all of that stuff.
You might do him there. But I thought there'd be
a little bit more negativity around him and people kind
(15:21):
of made maybe excuses depending on your point of view,
but at least sort of had reasons for why it
wasn't all his fault.
Speaker 2 (15:29):
It seems like Cliff Kingsbury's being the scapegoat there. I
don't even is he in the league? Is he in
college football? Where is Cliff Kingsbury these days? By Kyler
Murray getting a first place vote, the guy who demanded
that a Clasby removed from his contract, stumped his feet,
removed the cardinal stuff like your right leadership is the
word with him, I can't believe that he got one
quarterback Tier one vote. But Mike I should ask. The
(15:52):
NFL is notorious for struggling to draft quarterbacks. They have
missed so many times, so many whiff in the top ten,
top five, first round. I just wonder how when you're
talking to these guys, are some of them like, you
know what, I just did not see this. I did
not see this coming at all. I know we know
(16:13):
Mahomes is number one, but nobody who analyzes football can
tell me they saw anything close to this for like
a Patrick Mahomes after what five years?
Speaker 1 (16:22):
Right?
Speaker 2 (16:23):
So how much stocks should we put in the guy
who's voting Kyler Murray Tier one.
Speaker 1 (16:27):
Yeah. Absolutely, Well, I think if you talk to fifty people,
you're going to get a couple outliers, right, You're going
to get someone who sees it a different way. Or
you know what they played against Kyler Murray and it
was a root and he gave him fits. You know,
he saw the best of them. Whatever, you're going to
get a little bit of that. You mailed it all together.
I think it's pretty good. Now. I think there's a
reason I don't have rookies in here because I think
(16:49):
the projection of from college to pro is a complete
guessing game. I mean, there's people I know that I
respect who have great knowledge of football and quarterback play.
They can watch the film on Rosen in college and
think he's going to be good.
Speaker 2 (17:02):
Okay, everybody did.
Speaker 1 (17:03):
Yeah, I mean that's the sort of thing that happens.
That's why I take that out because I think we're
a lot better. We're a lot better at getting at
what matters of guys you've actually played. Now, there's some
guys in here haven't played much, and so they're a
little bit harder. I include some of those anyway, if
they're going to if they've at least played some, but
like last year, no one saw Geno Smith doing what
(17:24):
he did, and that includes the Seahawks. The Seahawks didn't
think he would. The Seahawks, I bet you six weeks
before the season probably thought Drew Lock was gonna be
their quarterback. Wow, you know, so Gino Smith. Good for him.
There are surprises. There are guys who play better than
they've ever played before, and you know, you tip your
(17:45):
hat to them and say, great job. Yeah, you know,
and those are few and far between. Really, you know,
I think most of the evaluations are pretty good.
Speaker 2 (17:55):
If you're trying to identify the next Geno Smith who
can make the leap? Is there or anything we can
take away because Seattle was weird last year, right they
dumped Russell Wilson for Gino Smith. They all of a
sudden are throwing a lot more on early downs. They've
got a young team, and then Gino Smith, who's basically
been you know, kicked around the league for almost a decade,
(18:16):
was a disaster with my Jets. Looks like a competent
I don't know about franchise quarterback, but look like a
competent guy who could be that guy this year. Is
there anyone that jumps out to you?
Speaker 1 (18:27):
I don't think so when you go through and just
there's not really anyone like him. I don't think who's
on this that started that's going to be the starter
for a team who hadn't been a starter for a
long time. But as a veteran, I mean, who would
you peck out? I mean, just kind of looking through
the list of guys, I think he's a little bit
of a one off. Now. I do think there's guys
that can go either way, you know. I think, like, like,
(18:50):
I feel like Lamar Jackson could climb into Tier one
if this passing offense suits him and he really takes
a step there, or they could come back to him
if that's not really for him. Any struggles and throws,
you know, leads the league in interceptions or something and
misses the final five games, he could slip. So I
think there's volatility for him. I think Tua is somebody
(19:11):
who people have a hard time figuring out because, uh,
you know, the supporting casts around him have been either
terrible or great, you know, and the play calling has
either been terrible or great, and so we know he
throws accurately, but Kenny even stay on the field. If
he does, I mean, he could have a he could
have a great season. But people don't want to anoint
(19:33):
somebody who sort of has to have it set up
a certain way. You know, it's got to be on
a certain timing to make it work, and the minute
it's not, it doesn't look good. So that's what he
probably has to overcome.
Speaker 2 (19:48):
Yeah, field is not hugely oh Justin Fields. Yeah yeah, Yeah,
you're right.
Speaker 1 (19:52):
So that's somebody who could really rock it up. But
I mean he's a first round pick recently, so there's
hope look for that. It's not like he's Geno Smith.
Speaker 2 (20:00):
While we're on Justin Fields. Some people, like my partner
on TV, Colin Coward, he really believes in quarterback record.
He can't seem to get over five and twenty for
Justin Fields. You study quarterbacks, you talk to people aroun
the league. You've got a weekly NFL column quarterback, I say,
quarterback record, and your response is.
Speaker 1 (20:19):
You've really got to know how to contextualize it. I'll
give you an example. Okay, if you look. I was
doing this for a conversation on Jimmy Garoppolo. Okay, Jimmy
Garoppolo is going from the forty nine Ers, who had
a great defense while he was there, to the Raiders
who've had a bad defense. Okay, so over the last
five years, the forty nine Ers are six statistically on
(20:41):
defense and special teams. The Raiders are thirty second. Right,
Jimmy's got a great record, right, amazing record. He wins
all the games. But guess what. All the teams in
the top eight statistically defense and special teams have a
winning record, all of them. The bottom eight, the only
ones that have winning records are the guys who have
Tier one quarterbacks. It's Mahomes, It's Rogers, and it's River
(21:03):
slash Herbert. So if you're gonna be bad, I would
say for a guy like for a guy like Mahomes
and Rogers, the record does say something because they have
throughout their career been able to overcome whether or not
they have a bad defense, So their record means something
to me. Jimmy's record is more of grain of salt
(21:24):
to me. He's a Tier three, upper Tier three, maybe
on his good day's tier two quarterback who has a
Tier one record because of factors that are beyond his
control and watch when he goes to the Raiders. He's
not gonna win seventy percent of his games guaranteed.
Speaker 2 (21:39):
Reminds me of Zach Wilson last year, who I think
he missed the first couple of games, and then he
goes on a five and oh tear right five and
oh record and the Jets are seven and three. But
nobody should look at Zach Wilson in those games, is
that he's the reason they won any of them, other
than the Pittsburgh game when he was good down the stretch,
but they needed some luck there. Anyway, I guess the
guy I would look at go back to Gino's men
(22:00):
for a sec. Again, it's not a direct comparison, but
Derek Carr, I think is like seventeen games under five
hundred for his career. He's over one in the playoffs.
He's been around the league for what nine ten years. Yeah,
I'm extremely bullish on the Saints this year, not because
of Carr or the coach really, but mostly because of
that schedule. And there's a chance that Carr not having
(22:23):
to play Mahomes twice Herbert twice. You know, there's a
chance in this week NFC South he Pops as a
guy who you know, surges worse he third tier, maybe
he surges to top of the second tier. Is that possible?
Speaker 1 (22:36):
Well, the funny thing about it is like, so when
he was with the Raiders, they were only kind of
middle of the pack on defense special teams one year
and they went twelve and four. That was the one
twelve and four year. The rest they were horrible. So
when you look at the Saints and you really look
at like in recent years they've kind of been a
top five defensive team, right, And so when you look
(22:58):
at Sean Payton there towards the end, Sean Payton's five
and two with Jamis, He's five and one with Bridgewater,
He's seven and two with Taysom Hill. Not because those
guys were money, it's because they were great in other
areas around him. So Derek Carr is certainly better than
those three guys, Right, those three guys had to combine
seventeen and five record when Sean Payton was there, and
(23:20):
none of them is a starting quarterback in the league, right,
So I think there's real promise for Derek Carr to
go in there and if they are top five, top
ten on defense, he can win games. And when you
go through the NFC, you get to the Saints real
quick when you start looking at who could go deep
because it's the NFC, I mean, they could win that division.
Speaker 2 (23:42):
So yeah, I got to ask how much of that
quarterback record stuff with the Saints is should we attribute
to Peyton as opposed to special teams of defense? Because
that makes me wonder is the ero going to be
pointing back up for Russell Wilson although they just lost
Tim Patrick again he didn't play last year to an achilles,
and I don't know. They have Sutland and Judy Sutton
(24:04):
and Judy and Hamler seemed to be healthy. But I
don't know how much we expect from Sean Payton and
Russell Wilson.
Speaker 1 (24:10):
Give I do give Sean Payton some of the credit
for that that he was able to win with those guys.
I remember writing about it at the time, going wait
a minute, Drew Brees is gone, this offense is gone,
and they continue to win and you have to have
the deep players on defense to do that. And Denver
probably has enough players on defense to be pretty good,
so they may be able to do that. I think
the Russell Wilson. Part of the equation though, is a
little dice here. He going into the twenty twenty season
(24:34):
was unanimous tier one. Then the next year he had
forty out of fifty votes in Tier one, then he
had fifteen out of fifty in Tier one, then he
had zero this year. So wow, he's declined for three
years in a row. And I think the one thing
we've seen about Sean Payton is it's not going to
be his fault for a while they're in dunder. That's
(24:56):
a good point, and Russell Wilson is in a dicey situation. Now.
He has a good opportunity. He could bounce back and
he could play well for them, But I think his
days as a superstar athletically are probably over.
Speaker 2 (25:10):
Wow.
Speaker 1 (25:11):
So you know, to me, I just think he's lost
the athletic quickness you know that he had when he
was really special, and so like, it's not going to
shock me if they switch quarterbacks.
Speaker 2 (25:22):
During the year to Jared'stidham.
Speaker 1 (25:25):
Sure that wouldn't shock me. Wow.
Speaker 2 (25:28):
Now I'm trying to think, is there been a quarterback
who has lost the athletic ability in his mid thirties
and then regained it we know Russ is a tireless worker.
We've seen all the silly airplane videos. Is there any
precedents of this?
Speaker 1 (25:42):
I don't know about losing the athleticism part. I mean,
I think there's been some athletic quarterbacks who have done
well late in their careers, like a rich Gannon, you know,
I think he was somebody who played till an older age. Probably,
I think he had a nick injury late in his career.
Steve Young was you know, didn't hit immediately and was
a good ath a quarterback later. But I don't know.
(26:02):
I think that Russell Wilson was pretty dependent on the
special ability to escape to really make the big play
on the field. You thought you had him so many times,
like this guy was dead to rights and then it's
a forty yard game. He would turn a ten yard
loss into a forty yard game, like routinely. You do
that two times in a game, you win the game,
like it changes everything. And so I think he may
(26:24):
be able to do that some, But I don't think
that's necessarily how Sean Payton's going to want to play
offense either. So I think it remains to be seen
how that fit is.
Speaker 2 (26:36):
We'll get you out of here on this mic. Any
thoughts on Jets Browns this week? Jets getting all the love,
hard knocks the first game they opened with the Bills.
Brutal early schedule, understandable with Aaron Rodgers, but I'm just curious.
I know that's the first six games are really brutal,
and it's early August. I'm not trying to pin you down,
but your expectation for the Jets would be first with
(26:57):
the preseason game and then going forward in to the season.
Speaker 1 (27:01):
Your thoughts, Yeah, no expectations for a preseason game. I mean,
I don't even pay I don't know who won the
preseason last year. I think there's zero value in it.
Just try not to get anybody hurts the season. I
expect him to be a playoff team. I think what
Rogers doesn't guarantee anything, but he raises the ceiling for them.
The ceiling is way higher than it'spin for a long time.
(27:23):
There's a lot of ways you cannot reach the ceiling.
Rogers gets hurt again. It just doesn't mesh well. Hey,
maybe he is not a Tier one quarterback. All those
things could happen, but he gives them the possibility I
think when your team has the possibility and knows that
you have a better chance to get the best out
of your guys. There's an energy that somebody like that
(27:43):
brings when everybody knows, hey, we got a shot, we
got a shot here. So I'm kind of glassed that full.
I think they're going to have a winning record. I
know it's tough and they FC no idea what'll happen
in the playoffs. I think you could lose to anyone
and they see in the playoffs and it's not the
end of the world. But I think they're going to
be in the mix at the end.
Speaker 2 (28:01):
Last two years, we've had surprise Super Bowl teams. The Eagles.
Not many had them, I mean people had them being good,
but super Bowl, I think it was a bit of
a stretch. And then two years ago Bengals, I'm almost
certain nobody had them. Could you give us a middle tier,
a middle class team that you think could make that
leap to Super Bowl?
Speaker 1 (28:18):
Yeah? So I think in the NFC, you know, Dallas
is kind of a team lurking in the Eagle shadows
that has good talent that they've been pretty good on
defense the last couple of years. They ran into the
forty nine ers last year in the playoffs. I don't
think there's any shame in losing to the forty nine ers.
I think they're a really good team. But there's a
thinness in the NFC that could allow we were talking
about the Saints. You know, there's some teams in there
(28:40):
that could break through because of that. I think it's
much easier to make the Super Bowl from the NFC
than it is to win it. I think getting to
the super Bowl is the problem in the AFC. A
team that has been really on the outs but will
be heard from this year could be Jacksonville. Oh. I
think they've done a good job putting that roster together,
(29:01):
and I think they're going to have a good defense,
pretty good defense, and what we saw on offense, that's
a team that hasn't done anything, has had a terrible record,
that got a taste last year, and maybe could be
a little dangerous.
Speaker 2 (29:16):
Wow. So Jacksonville, I guess if they steal the number
one seed in the division, maybe they make the leap
and get the number one seed. I mean, it's gonna
be tough, Kansas, You're right. The AFC is just brutal
that's why we're leaning unders in the AFC with Allen
and Burrow and Mahomes, and it's just wild.
Speaker 1 (29:31):
Yeah. I mean, I think in the end, the Chiefs
are probably going to be there. Last shoot. They won
it last year and I didn't even think it was
going to be their year as they transitioned from Tyreek Hills,
So you got to give them the big edge.
Speaker 2 (29:41):
Yeah, all right, Mike Sando the Athletic get a subscription
read all their fun stuff. The Tears quarterback thing is awesome.
Congrats Mike on the success and we'll talk to you soon.
Speaker 1 (29:50):
Thanks so much, appreciate it.
The volume.
Speaker 2 (00:09):
This is Straight Fire with Jason McIntire. What is up
straight Fire, fam, It's me Jason McIntyre. Straight Fire for Wednesday,
August second. Got a great guest today on the podcast,
Mike Sando from The Athletic. He is the author of
the Tears piece that is sweeping the internet as everybody
(00:30):
gets ready for fantasy football gambling NFL. We're now what
thirty six hours away from Jeth's Brown's and preseason action
fully begins in earnest next weekend. I'll be out of
town next weekend. Part's unknown. It's an exciting podcast. You
guys are gonna like it. Sando and I kind of
disagree on some quarterbacks, agree on some other stuff, and
(00:51):
he talks about the process and what he you know,
what it was like seeing some of these massive leaps,
some of the I mean, Jalen Hurts's leap is quantum
and it's like one year. Really, So we get into that,
you guys will like it real quick. I did. Before
we get the Sando. I want to touch on this
two things actually, So first of all, US women's soccer team,
in the middle of the night laid a massive egg.
(01:13):
It would have been colossal and historically bad. If Portugal's
shot in the ninety first minute didn't hit the post
to win in the net, then we would have lost.
US settle for zero zero tie. They advance as the
number two seed, which has thrown off so many things. Folks,
it is so bad for the US, Like, you don't
understand how bad this tie was. Overall, they've played like garbage.
(01:36):
I would say, in five out of the six halfs
they've been equal or worse than their opponent. They now
play Sunday at five am. Then they play next Friday,
assuming they win at three thirty am the semi finals,
they would play in the worst game at four am,
like because they got put into like the second tier
(01:58):
because they finished second in the group. They're not getting
the favorable time slot. Everybody anticipated, Oh the US, they
might win their third World Cup. They'll be in their
favorite time slot. They're gonna win their group and advance.
And now it's like, whoa, this is not good, not
gonna be good at all for Fox and worse yet,
let's be real, this women's team does not look good.
They don't look ready for prime time. Carly Lloyd going
(02:20):
after them, it's just not great, you know, watching it.
I'm on a couple text threads with some dads who
play soccer in my area and they coach and everything.
They someone play college and it's like the coaching does
not look great and the team looks old and slow.
And I would just say the one thing that I've noticed,
and again this is on a granular level, but anytime
(02:40):
you win a championship, the targets on your back. Everybody's
coming for you. They're giving their a game all the time.
We won two in a row. Vietnam came out and
remember the spread was six and a half. I was like,
that's a layup. The US will smoke them, and it
was like one nothing at halftime. Now they did outshoot them,
I think twenty three zero, twenty seven nothing, something like that.
But Vietnam played incredible. Their goalie was outstanding, and the
(03:03):
US only won three to nothing. By the way, Netherlands
beat them seven nothing, and they didn't get the number
one seed in the group. And then the uninspiring tie
against Netherlands when they trailed for much of the match,
and then the Portugal game which they slept walked through,
was like geez, I mean if that goal had gone
into the US is going home. All this nonsense that
they've been talking about. We don't get the respect of
(03:25):
the men's team. We don't. It's almost like they focus
too much on that and less on the soccer. They
just don't look nearly as good. Disappointing stuff, but it's
not over. They could still win the World Cup. The
other story is the Major League Baseball trade deadline. Like
ten to fourteen days ago looked awesome. It was like
exciting because what Tani was in it. And then the
Angels decided we're gonna make a push, We're gonna keep Otani,
(03:46):
and it was like it lost all the juice. And
then the big move was Verlander. Ben Verlander was a
guest on the Pod last week. His brother Justin got
traded back to the Astros. The Mets fire sale is
in full swing. Just an absolute dumpster fire in Shay
or do they still call Shay or No City Bank,
I'm sorry, City City Bank Park. I think it is.
I have I I don't remember, it's been so long
(04:08):
since I lived in New York. But all in all,
like the Mets have to be the least impressive team
this season. The biggest disappointment. Yankees will get to the playoffs.
I'm confident in that. But this o Tani thing, it's
like the excitement of him maybe moving teams was juicy
as hell, and it would have been the double bonus
because somebody would have had him for three months on
a rental, been wooing him to try to secure him,
(04:31):
and that he would have hit free agency and it
would have been another mad scramble. So baseball really missed
out here on some fun, fun times. And I know
Anaheim should not care about that, but if they lose
him for nothing, they sure as hell will all right.
Without further adod, let's get to our guest, Mike Sando
of The Athletic. You know, Jason likes to think he
knows everything when it comes to sports. I know what
(04:53):
sports fans want, but for everything he doesn't. He knows
a guy who does.
Speaker 1 (04:57):
Let's just say I know a guy who knows the
guy who knows another guy.
Speaker 2 (05:03):
All right, let's welcome into straight fire Mike Sando of
the Athletic. Obviously, he is the man of the hour
this week in football circles because of his quarterback tiers list.
We broke it down on yesterday's podcast. He's been doing
the media rounds, getting a billion questions. Mike, how you
holding up in this media onslaught. Everybody's got to ask you.
Why is why quarterback rated so low? How you handling
(05:23):
it all?
Speaker 1 (05:23):
It's you know, really well. I love this week and
it feels like it's even more than in the past
this week. I don't know if it's a different buzz
or or what, but I have been bouncing around. In fact,
I was doing earlier today. I was doing something in
Pittsburgh and we went over like the start of my
next one, so I could see Cleveland was actually calling in.
(05:45):
We got They don't even know this, but like they're
in the same division that Cleveland was calling in. I said, hey,
I gotta got I got another one coming in. So
that's unusual, you know, to have so many that they
were overlapping each other. But it's a fun thing.
Speaker 2 (05:59):
Listen, We're not gonna break down every guy, obviously, but
I do have some questions about rising falling. I love,
by the way, the presentation now, there's like a drop
down tab on the Athletic you can compare, for instance,
Jalen Hurts last year heading into last season, medium grade,
nothing special, really got embarrassed in that playoff game against Tampa.
And then Jalen Hurts adds aj Brown on the outside,
(06:22):
Shane Stikeen dials up some greatness and now Jalen Hurts
is like a superstar in the NFL. But how do
you handle when league executives and these people you interview
are saying, listen, it's just one season. We need to
pump the brakes.
Speaker 1 (06:36):
It's the number one difference I think between in the
league and out of the league, right I think on
the out of the league, we go week to week. Man,
we're living in the moment a little bit, and some
people are like, hey, schoon so has had a good September,
where would he be in the tears? You know? And
that's not really how it is in the league. So
there's a little bit of a delay on this thing. Like,
(07:00):
for example, Russell Wilson plummeted from last year, but he
didn't go like all the way to garbage, you know.
I mean he dropped a tier and that's probably appropriate.
Or Jalen Hurts is in the same shoes as like
Lamar Jackson was when Lamar won MVP. He went right
to the top of Tier two and people are like, well,
how you're the MVP, how can you not be Tier one?
(07:20):
And it's like, well, people want to see it again
and they have some questions about his passing and just
whether the passing could come around enough for them to
advance in the playoffs. Well, we're two three years later,
Lamar still solidly in Tier two, but he hasn't really
made that jump into Tier one, and no one's asking
me right now, Hey, how come he's not up with Burrow? Right?
So sometimes that little bit of a delay or just
(07:42):
an extra year is warranted moving him up or down. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (07:46):
I also want to ask about Trevor Lawrence, who, you know,
everybody's high on coming out of Clemson. They loved him.
I loved him, but there seems to be like a
wide gap on what he is. A lot of people
obviously like him, but I did look at Focus only
had him as the fifteenth graded quarterback last year. DVA
loves him a lot more, they had him sixth. How
(08:06):
did you handle him with the Jags, because if memory serves,
they were three and seven to start last season and
nobody was talking about Trevor Lawrence being a Tier two
Tier one quarterback, and all of a sudden, they get
hot down the stretch. They win a playoff game, coming
back from a massive deficit. And now it's like Trevor
Lawrence season. I don't know, I like Lawrence, but you know,
he seems a little bit high.
Speaker 1 (08:28):
Interesting. So Trevor Lawrence moved into the middle of the
second tier. He's just beneath Lamar Jackson, just ahead of
Dak Prescott, who's obviously a lot more proven. I think
people are buying the upside now. They see the situation
in Jacksonville as having stabilized. They like Jet Doug Peterson generally,
there's good weaponry around him. There's actually a good team.
I think the defense is good. So I think people
(08:50):
are seeing where this is headed and they're not putting
him in Tier one. Where did he get three Tier
one votes? So three people out of fifty said, you
know what, I'm all in Trevor Lawrence. Here we go.
But I think for the most part, people really bought
into the second half of last year. Now that said,
before that, even when even though everyone knew urban Meyer
to blame all of that, I think he was sort
(09:11):
of disappointing and people expected more from him and really
have expected better accuracy from him. Now that seemed to
come around the second half of last year, But that
was one thing where like people were questioning whether he
could get to Tier one more a year ago than now.
Speaker 2 (09:30):
I'm a Jets fan, I was born in New York.
I root for them. That's the one team I like
root for. And I was not keen on bringing Aaron
Rodgers on board. Old guy ornery battling the front office
in Green Bay. And let's be real, after the two MVPs, Mike,
he fell precipitously. He didn't fall like Russell Wilson, but
he felt and it doesn't feel like he was treated
(09:51):
the same way Russ was in his fall. Now, I
don't know how much of that is a projection onto
the Jets where he's reunited with Hackett, whatever we think
of Hackett, and they have Garrett Wilson and better weapons
perceived on the outside than the Packers did. Last year.
Was Rogers a difficult one for you?
Speaker 1 (10:09):
So in the past, like the voters stood by Rogers
no matter what. Remember the end of McCarthy. It didn't
look good. There was kind of whispers in media not whispers.
People were saying, hey, this guy has declined. You know
you could all those stats were talking about EPA, DVOA,
all that stuff was being used to say that Rogers
didn't have it at that time, though everyone kept him
in Tier one. In fact, before this year, four hundred
(10:32):
and one of four hundred and eight votes for Rogers
over the last decade were in Tier one. Okay, he
had seven Tier one vote Tier two votes. Ever in
nine years, this year he has twenty. So there are
some people hopping off of that train. And I think
some of it is a combination of the age. He's
going to be forty this year, so people sort of
kind of start to see you decline at a certain age.
(10:53):
I think that happened to Brady. Remember twenty nineteen, Brady
doesn't look right like he's done with the Patriots. Weaponry
wasn't great, the offense just kind of stalled, and people said,
you know what this is it. He's old. This is
where he declines. And he was able to get in
a good situation, probably be motivated, and stay healthy, and
(11:15):
he played pretty much Tier one ball. I think he
led the league in a lot of categories that first
year in Tampa. So I think Rogers has that in
him with a little bit of a concern over the
injuries and durability. I think that's where seventeen game season,
as noted in the piece, fourteen games on turf this year,
only for last year. That's a little bit interesting for
(11:36):
someone who's had some lower leg injuries, was injured last year.
Tough division, might get knocked around a little bit. New
offensive line, everyone learning the protections, right, It's not the
same guys that he's had, which is a huge priority
for him. That's why they had all those guys like Lazard.
Speaker 2 (11:52):
You know, that's a great nugget. Fourteen games on turf.
I had not considered that. This is why you know,
this is why you got the goods, all right. I
do want to go to Josh Allen and the Bill
season last year was weird because they were steamrolling everybody,
leading in point differential, I think, and then that Bengals
game happens and it kind of throws everything off down
the stretch. They end up not getting home field advantage,
(12:15):
they have to face the Bengals, they get smashed, and
now it's like whoa Buffalo's going to fall back? And
you know everybody loves Josh Allen. I'm gonna give you
two stats, Mike that I'm sure you're aware of. Pro
Football Focus had Alan with the first well leading the
NFL in turnover worthy plays last year, and he also
led the NFL in red zone interceptions. Yet he's solidly
(12:36):
in Tier one. I get that he had a lot
of touchdown passes looked great last year. I just based
on the way they've finished the season, should we be cautious?
Maybe that's over a too strong a word. How should
we feel about Alan heading into the season?
Speaker 1 (12:50):
He actually he actually moved up in his average vote
this year. That surprised me a little bit. Now Burrow
passed them, like Burrow moved up more. But I kind
of thought there might be a little bit more questioning
of Josh Allen then there ended up being this year.
But I think you have to kind of step back
and say, wait a minute, this is a team that
was kind of top five on both sides of the
(13:11):
ball for the most part. Yes, he did put the
ball in Harm's way, but I think like that's kind
of part of him. He's kind of a superman. You know.
The concerns I would have for him. Are that much
usage and running, you know, is going to catch up
to your body. I don't care if you're as big
as Cam Newton and Josh Allen, it just does eventually.
I mean Cam hit a cliff, you know, after about
(13:33):
ten years. Cam was not the same guy Josh Allen's
way earlier in that throws the ball better, but he
runs it a lot and takes a lot of hits
and kind of goes down swinging a lot. Right, that's
what we're talking about with some of those turnover worthy plays.
He doesn't really live to see another day enough, and
I think that's an area of growth for him that
(13:54):
could be had. They've talked about it a little bit
this offseason, but he's got to kind of actually do it.
Speaker 2 (13:59):
Based on voting, Mike, was there any quarterback that you
felt when you saw the results, you were like, I
just disagree totally. I don't see it that way. I've
got this guy higher or lower who was the quarterback
that stuck out to you the most?
Speaker 1 (14:12):
So I'm so kind of on the inside myself and
talking to all these guys, I kind of agree with
the way that it came down. Although right, here's my
two kind of like right on the Tier two three borderline,
like Cousins improved, like Cousins is always kind of right
around there, but he moved up from Tier three into
Tier two, And I'm like, was there something we didn't
(14:33):
know about Kirk Cousins. Are people overvaluing the fact that
they won all those close games? And then you know,
when you look at it, he did have eight fourth
quarter game winning drives and that is tied for the
most in a season since nineteen sixty according to Pro
Football Reference, So he does get some credit for that.
I thought also, people were nicer to Kyler Murray than
(14:54):
I was respecting. I mean, Kyler Murray got one Tier
one vote. Can you believe that?
Speaker 2 (14:58):
Oh my gosh.
Speaker 1 (15:00):
Yeah. And I used to quote from the guy who
did it. I mean, the guy was like, look, they
have a lot of problems around there that aren't him.
I mean, when they were a playoff team recently, it
wasn't because of any reason except for him. He showed
he can make the plays and carry him. Now he's
got to show the leadership and all of that stuff.
You might do him there. But I thought there'd be
a little bit more negativity around him and people kind
(15:21):
of made maybe excuses depending on your point of view,
but at least sort of had reasons for why it
wasn't all his fault.
Speaker 2 (15:29):
It seems like Cliff Kingsbury's being the scapegoat there. I
don't even is he in the league? Is he in
college football? Where is Cliff Kingsbury these days? By Kyler
Murray getting a first place vote, the guy who demanded
that a Clasby removed from his contract, stumped his feet,
removed the cardinal stuff like your right leadership is the
word with him, I can't believe that he got one
quarterback Tier one vote. But Mike I should ask. The
(15:52):
NFL is notorious for struggling to draft quarterbacks. They have
missed so many times, so many whiff in the top ten,
top five, first round. I just wonder how when you're
talking to these guys, are some of them like, you
know what, I just did not see this. I did
not see this coming at all. I know we know
(16:13):
Mahomes is number one, but nobody who analyzes football can
tell me they saw anything close to this for like
a Patrick Mahomes after what five years?
Speaker 1 (16:22):
Right?
Speaker 2 (16:23):
So how much stocks should we put in the guy
who's voting Kyler Murray Tier one.
Speaker 1 (16:27):
Yeah. Absolutely, Well, I think if you talk to fifty people,
you're going to get a couple outliers, right, You're going
to get someone who sees it a different way. Or
you know what they played against Kyler Murray and it
was a root and he gave him fits. You know,
he saw the best of them. Whatever, you're going to
get a little bit of that. You mailed it all together.
I think it's pretty good. Now. I think there's a
reason I don't have rookies in here because I think
(16:49):
the projection of from college to pro is a complete
guessing game. I mean, there's people I know that I
respect who have great knowledge of football and quarterback play.
They can watch the film on Rosen in college and
think he's going to be good.
Speaker 2 (17:02):
Okay, everybody did.
Speaker 1 (17:03):
Yeah, I mean that's the sort of thing that happens.
That's why I take that out because I think we're
a lot better. We're a lot better at getting at
what matters of guys you've actually played. Now, there's some
guys in here haven't played much, and so they're a
little bit harder. I include some of those anyway, if
they're going to if they've at least played some, but
like last year, no one saw Geno Smith doing what
(17:24):
he did, and that includes the Seahawks. The Seahawks didn't
think he would. The Seahawks, I bet you six weeks
before the season probably thought Drew Lock was gonna be
their quarterback. Wow, you know, so Gino Smith. Good for him.
There are surprises. There are guys who play better than
they've ever played before, and you know, you tip your
(17:45):
hat to them and say, great job. Yeah, you know,
and those are few and far between. Really, you know,
I think most of the evaluations are pretty good.
Speaker 2 (17:55):
If you're trying to identify the next Geno Smith who
can make the leap? Is there or anything we can
take away because Seattle was weird last year, right they
dumped Russell Wilson for Gino Smith. They all of a
sudden are throwing a lot more on early downs. They've
got a young team, and then Gino Smith, who's basically
been you know, kicked around the league for almost a decade,
(18:16):
was a disaster with my Jets. Looks like a competent
I don't know about franchise quarterback, but look like a
competent guy who could be that guy this year. Is
there anyone that jumps out to you?
Speaker 1 (18:27):
I don't think so when you go through and just
there's not really anyone like him. I don't think who's
on this that started that's going to be the starter
for a team who hadn't been a starter for a
long time. But as a veteran, I mean, who would
you peck out? I mean, just kind of looking through
the list of guys, I think he's a little bit
of a one off. Now. I do think there's guys
that can go either way, you know. I think, like, like,
(18:50):
I feel like Lamar Jackson could climb into Tier one
if this passing offense suits him and he really takes
a step there, or they could come back to him
if that's not really for him. Any struggles and throws,
you know, leads the league in interceptions or something and
misses the final five games, he could slip. So I
think there's volatility for him. I think Tua is somebody
(19:11):
who people have a hard time figuring out because, uh,
you know, the supporting casts around him have been either
terrible or great, you know, and the play calling has
either been terrible or great, and so we know he
throws accurately, but Kenny even stay on the field. If
he does, I mean, he could have a he could
have a great season. But people don't want to anoint
(19:33):
somebody who sort of has to have it set up
a certain way. You know, it's got to be on
a certain timing to make it work, and the minute
it's not, it doesn't look good. So that's what he
probably has to overcome.
Speaker 2 (19:48):
Yeah, field is not hugely oh Justin Fields. Yeah yeah, Yeah,
you're right.
Speaker 1 (19:52):
So that's somebody who could really rock it up. But
I mean he's a first round pick recently, so there's
hope look for that. It's not like he's Geno Smith.
Speaker 2 (20:00):
While we're on Justin Fields. Some people, like my partner
on TV, Colin Coward, he really believes in quarterback record.
He can't seem to get over five and twenty for
Justin Fields. You study quarterbacks, you talk to people aroun
the league. You've got a weekly NFL column quarterback, I say,
quarterback record, and your response is.
Speaker 1 (20:19):
You've really got to know how to contextualize it. I'll
give you an example. Okay, if you look. I was
doing this for a conversation on Jimmy Garoppolo. Okay, Jimmy
Garoppolo is going from the forty nine Ers, who had
a great defense while he was there, to the Raiders
who've had a bad defense. Okay, so over the last
five years, the forty nine Ers are six statistically on
(20:41):
defense and special teams. The Raiders are thirty second. Right,
Jimmy's got a great record, right, amazing record. He wins
all the games. But guess what. All the teams in
the top eight statistically defense and special teams have a
winning record, all of them. The bottom eight, the only
ones that have winning records are the guys who have
Tier one quarterbacks. It's Mahomes, It's Rogers, and it's River
(21:03):
slash Herbert. So if you're gonna be bad, I would
say for a guy like for a guy like Mahomes
and Rogers, the record does say something because they have
throughout their career been able to overcome whether or not
they have a bad defense, So their record means something
to me. Jimmy's record is more of grain of salt
(21:24):
to me. He's a Tier three, upper Tier three, maybe
on his good day's tier two quarterback who has a
Tier one record because of factors that are beyond his
control and watch when he goes to the Raiders. He's
not gonna win seventy percent of his games guaranteed.
Speaker 2 (21:39):
Reminds me of Zach Wilson last year, who I think
he missed the first couple of games, and then he
goes on a five and oh tear right five and
oh record and the Jets are seven and three. But
nobody should look at Zach Wilson in those games, is
that he's the reason they won any of them, other
than the Pittsburgh game when he was good down the stretch,
but they needed some luck there. Anyway, I guess the
guy I would look at go back to Gino's men
(22:00):
for a sec. Again, it's not a direct comparison, but
Derek Carr, I think is like seventeen games under five
hundred for his career. He's over one in the playoffs.
He's been around the league for what nine ten years. Yeah,
I'm extremely bullish on the Saints this year, not because
of Carr or the coach really, but mostly because of
that schedule. And there's a chance that Carr not having
(22:23):
to play Mahomes twice Herbert twice. You know, there's a
chance in this week NFC South he Pops as a
guy who you know, surges worse he third tier, maybe
he surges to top of the second tier. Is that possible?
Speaker 1 (22:36):
Well, the funny thing about it is like, so when
he was with the Raiders, they were only kind of
middle of the pack on defense special teams one year
and they went twelve and four. That was the one
twelve and four year. The rest they were horrible. So
when you look at the Saints and you really look
at like in recent years they've kind of been a
top five defensive team, right, And so when you look
(22:58):
at Sean Payton there towards the end, Sean Payton's five
and two with Jamis, He's five and one with Bridgewater,
He's seven and two with Taysom Hill. Not because those
guys were money, it's because they were great in other
areas around him. So Derek Carr is certainly better than
those three guys, Right, those three guys had to combine
seventeen and five record when Sean Payton was there, and
(23:20):
none of them is a starting quarterback in the league, right,
So I think there's real promise for Derek Carr to
go in there and if they are top five, top
ten on defense, he can win games. And when you
go through the NFC, you get to the Saints real
quick when you start looking at who could go deep
because it's the NFC, I mean, they could win that division.
Speaker 2 (23:42):
So yeah, I got to ask how much of that
quarterback record stuff with the Saints is should we attribute
to Peyton as opposed to special teams of defense? Because
that makes me wonder is the ero going to be
pointing back up for Russell Wilson although they just lost
Tim Patrick again he didn't play last year to an achilles,
and I don't know. They have Sutland and Judy Sutton
(24:04):
and Judy and Hamler seemed to be healthy. But I
don't know how much we expect from Sean Payton and
Russell Wilson.
Speaker 1 (24:10):
Give I do give Sean Payton some of the credit
for that that he was able to win with those guys.
I remember writing about it at the time, going wait
a minute, Drew Brees is gone, this offense is gone,
and they continue to win and you have to have
the deep players on defense to do that. And Denver
probably has enough players on defense to be pretty good,
so they may be able to do that. I think
the Russell Wilson. Part of the equation though, is a
little dice here. He going into the twenty twenty season
(24:34):
was unanimous tier one. Then the next year he had
forty out of fifty votes in Tier one, then he
had fifteen out of fifty in Tier one, then he
had zero this year. So wow, he's declined for three
years in a row. And I think the one thing
we've seen about Sean Payton is it's not going to
be his fault for a while they're in dunder. That's
(24:56):
a good point, and Russell Wilson is in a dicey situation. Now.
He has a good opportunity. He could bounce back and
he could play well for them, But I think his
days as a superstar athletically are probably over.
Speaker 2 (25:10):
Wow.
Speaker 1 (25:11):
So you know, to me, I just think he's lost
the athletic quickness you know that he had when he
was really special, and so like, it's not going to
shock me if they switch quarterbacks.
Speaker 2 (25:22):
During the year to Jared'stidham.
Speaker 1 (25:25):
Sure that wouldn't shock me. Wow.
Speaker 2 (25:28):
Now I'm trying to think, is there been a quarterback
who has lost the athletic ability in his mid thirties
and then regained it we know Russ is a tireless worker.
We've seen all the silly airplane videos. Is there any
precedents of this?
Speaker 1 (25:42):
I don't know about losing the athleticism part. I mean,
I think there's been some athletic quarterbacks who have done
well late in their careers, like a rich Gannon, you know,
I think he was somebody who played till an older age. Probably,
I think he had a nick injury late in his career.
Steve Young was you know, didn't hit immediately and was
a good ath a quarterback later. But I don't know.
(26:02):
I think that Russell Wilson was pretty dependent on the
special ability to escape to really make the big play
on the field. You thought you had him so many times,
like this guy was dead to rights and then it's
a forty yard game. He would turn a ten yard
loss into a forty yard game, like routinely. You do
that two times in a game, you win the game,
like it changes everything. And so I think he may
(26:24):
be able to do that some, But I don't think
that's necessarily how Sean Payton's going to want to play
offense either. So I think it remains to be seen
how that fit is.
Speaker 2 (26:36):
We'll get you out of here on this mic. Any
thoughts on Jets Browns this week? Jets getting all the love,
hard knocks the first game they opened with the Bills.
Brutal early schedule, understandable with Aaron Rodgers, but I'm just curious.
I know that's the first six games are really brutal,
and it's early August. I'm not trying to pin you down,
but your expectation for the Jets would be first with
(26:57):
the preseason game and then going forward in to the season.
Speaker 1 (27:01):
Your thoughts, Yeah, no expectations for a preseason game. I mean,
I don't even pay I don't know who won the
preseason last year. I think there's zero value in it.
Just try not to get anybody hurts the season. I
expect him to be a playoff team. I think what
Rogers doesn't guarantee anything, but he raises the ceiling for them.
The ceiling is way higher than it'spin for a long time.
(27:23):
There's a lot of ways you cannot reach the ceiling.
Rogers gets hurt again. It just doesn't mesh well. Hey,
maybe he is not a Tier one quarterback. All those
things could happen, but he gives them the possibility I
think when your team has the possibility and knows that
you have a better chance to get the best out
of your guys. There's an energy that somebody like that
(27:43):
brings when everybody knows, hey, we got a shot, we
got a shot here. So I'm kind of glassed that full.
I think they're going to have a winning record. I
know it's tough and they FC no idea what'll happen
in the playoffs. I think you could lose to anyone
and they see in the playoffs and it's not the
end of the world. But I think they're going to
be in the mix at the end.
Speaker 2 (28:01):
Last two years, we've had surprise Super Bowl teams. The Eagles.
Not many had them, I mean people had them being good,
but super Bowl, I think it was a bit of
a stretch. And then two years ago Bengals, I'm almost
certain nobody had them. Could you give us a middle tier,
a middle class team that you think could make that
leap to Super Bowl?
Speaker 1 (28:18):
Yeah? So I think in the NFC, you know, Dallas
is kind of a team lurking in the Eagle shadows
that has good talent that they've been pretty good on
defense the last couple of years. They ran into the
forty nine ers last year in the playoffs. I don't
think there's any shame in losing to the forty nine ers.
I think they're a really good team. But there's a
thinness in the NFC that could allow we were talking
about the Saints. You know, there's some teams in there
(28:40):
that could break through because of that. I think it's
much easier to make the Super Bowl from the NFC
than it is to win it. I think getting to
the super Bowl is the problem in the AFC. A
team that has been really on the outs but will
be heard from this year could be Jacksonville. Oh. I
think they've done a good job putting that roster together,
(29:01):
and I think they're going to have a good defense,
pretty good defense, and what we saw on offense, that's
a team that hasn't done anything, has had a terrible record,
that got a taste last year, and maybe could be
a little dangerous.
Speaker 2 (29:16):
Wow. So Jacksonville, I guess if they steal the number
one seed in the division, maybe they make the leap
and get the number one seed. I mean, it's gonna
be tough, Kansas, You're right. The AFC is just brutal
that's why we're leaning unders in the AFC with Allen
and Burrow and Mahomes, and it's just wild.
Speaker 1 (29:31):
Yeah. I mean, I think in the end, the Chiefs
are probably going to be there. Last shoot. They won
it last year and I didn't even think it was
going to be their year as they transitioned from Tyreek Hills,
So you got to give them the big edge.
Speaker 2 (29:41):
Yeah, all right, Mike Sando the Athletic get a subscription
read all their fun stuff. The Tears quarterback thing is awesome.
Congrats Mike on the success and we'll talk to you soon.
Speaker 1 (29:50):
Thanks so much, appreciate it.
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Colin Cowherd
Jason McIntyre
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