The Favorites - NFL Week 2 Betting Preview - The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
sixty five. We are parts of the Volume Podcast Network.
I am Chad Moman, chief content Officer of the Action Network.
We are live from our Tommy John home studios. I
just love the fact that Tommy John is basically sponsoring

(00:32):
my office. I'm joined as always by my co host,
my companion, Michael Padre might BFF professional better signon Hunter,
Hello som it.

Speaker 2 (00:41):
Hello Chad.

Speaker 3 (00:42):
Week two a reaction week. Brother, what are we overacting to?

Speaker 1 (00:45):
Oh? Basically everything I know? Like I know the second
we mentioned the Carolina Panthers, We're just gonna blow up
our YouTube chat and uh bring the the power of
vikings upon our head from our listeners. And we deserve
it for that look. Wild and wacky Week one that

(01:06):
ended with the Jets Niners game on Monday night, which
we had included in our Phase five picks, and we
had the Jets. Because of that game, we finished two
and three for the week. Our foxhole was very lonely
because that pick was the Giants. My exact decision was
Carolina enough said there, Your assignment says was indeed very

(01:28):
well done. Our first Tommy John, Big balls better the
season was Detroit and we won that. Simon, Is it
possible we're the Cincinnati Bengals of podcast prognosticators because this
is the second year in a row where we started

(01:49):
off a little bit slow.

Speaker 3 (01:51):
No, I think I think it was two years ago
we started five and now I think it just says
more that it's good to be Joe Public. Right, four
and oh five the Favorites with four in the primetime games?
Was it thirteen and three straight up favorites?

Speaker 1 (02:05):
Yep? Yeah, last year the Favorites. By the way, if
you were betting the Favorites, you were ROI positive for
the first time in the entire generation. We've been tracking
that in the Action Network with all of our data.
So listen, I don't want to dwell on the week.
This is what our Sunday recap episode is for. You

(02:26):
can catch that episode in every episode of the Favorites
live only on the Action Network YouTube channel. Be sure
to like and subscribe. In a moment, we'll recap the
results of week one in our contest, will announce the
winner of our first one thousand dollars weekly cash prize.
If you're new here, you need to sign up for

(02:47):
the Free Favorites Podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football
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(03:08):
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Network dot Com. No reason to be listening to the
show and not signing up for that if you can
win money every week just by just putting picks in

(03:29):
a free game as a reminder of the Favorite podcast's presented
by Bet three sixty five and now new BET three
sixty five. Customers get two hundred dollars in bonus bets
when you bet five bucks. Sign up using promo code
Favorites deposit ten dollars in place a bet for five
dollars to get two hundred dollars in bonus bets. Those

(03:50):
bonus bets can be used for spreads, totals, player props, futures,
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(04:11):
conditioned restrictions apply. Finally, Contest Recap Tough Week. In the contest,
only one point three percent of participants went five to oh, sigmon.
Congratulations to our first weekly winner the season. See J
Childs nineteen ninety three went five and oh in the
contest and missed the tiebreaker by one yards. So did

(04:32):
another entry. However, c J submitted picks first and the
earlier submission time wins, So enjoy your thousand dollars cash, CJ.
As always, our producer Matt Mitchell, has selected his Producer's
Cup award for the entry that finished dead fucking last
in the contest.

Speaker 2 (04:52):
Have you heard about the Lord and lose?

Speaker 3 (04:57):
He's a louis About He's still kidding try.

Speaker 1 (05:04):
This week's Producer's Cup goes to Seth Dog, who went
zero to five and missed the tiebreaker by four hundred
and fourteen yards seth Dog. Please email Matt Podcasts at
Actionnetwork dot com to claim your prize time for week two.
So some of this season long props that we are

(05:24):
going to be tracking. Trevor Lawrence with the league in
passing twenty two to one in the first half. He
looked like a world beater. Aiden hutchinsonid to lead the
league in sacks at fourteen to one. If anyone watched
Convince Me, our Sunday morning YouTube show eleven am in
the Action Network app on YouTube, Sean Kerner gave out
Aiden Hutchinson over seven point seventy five sacks. He got

(05:49):
that on the second and last play of the game
and he was in Matthew Stafford's grill all freaking night.
So that was a deserved win. Cooper Cup thirty to
one to lead the league in receiving yard it pretty strong.

Speaker 2 (06:01):
That started ten to one, ten to one, Yeah, so
that was a nice one.

Speaker 1 (06:07):
Dude, Simon, you know what, You're so good.

Speaker 2 (06:12):
That's all it takes.

Speaker 1 (06:13):
Thanks, Jeff, You're so good man. I love you. I'm
gonna give a couple of friends that are relevant. I
don't want to repeat them every time, So if I
if I say the trends are relevant during the game
during one of our breakdowns. It's referring to these Week
one and two one to five and a half point
underdogs are sixty four percent since two thousand and eighteen,

(06:37):
but they did go four and eight in week one,
So should we expect a regression at this point? Favorites
of one to three and a half forty three percent
in September the past twenty years, and those small favorites
especially don't perform well in the first three weeks when

(06:57):
they are just forty two percent two thousand and fourteen,
flip side eight and four in week one. So either
the trend is dead this year because the public is
doing so well as we've seen, or there's going to
be a regression. Here we go, buddy, Here we go.

(07:20):
Thursday night football, Buffalo, Miami. A lot of intrigue here.
Josh Allen injured practicing. Game opened at one Miami at
one on Sunday night. Moved up, got up to two
and a half, and I was back down to two
at bet three six five seeing one and a half
at some at some books, give me the under I don't.
I don't have any Wow.

Speaker 3 (07:41):
Now the only play here is Miami and Miami is
the play definitely in the spot short week the Bills
coming off that win they had compared to this Miami
team that they know they stole one, right, I just
think it they played as bad as they could possibly
play and they still won that game, where I think
we might have seen one of the best games you
possibly see at a job shound that Bills team.

Speaker 1 (08:01):
Right, there's number one rule when you when you love somebody,
tell him my God.

Speaker 4 (08:05):
I love Josh Allen, so we love love God.

Speaker 2 (08:07):
Goodbye.

Speaker 3 (08:08):
I think he had four total touchdowns and he was
just it was all clicking, especially in that second half
against an Arizona defense. I think Miami's defense is much
better than Arizona's defense, especially their secondary and offensively. I
like the matchup for Miami, man, like they're the speedsters.
I don't know what the counter to that is for

(08:28):
this Bills team. So we talk all the time. Chat
if it's under three and it's two at home, we
take this spot, don't we like? Unless unless they're playing,
you know, one of the better teams of football. If
they're playing the forty nine ers or the Chiefs, I
would definitely be hesitating less. They're a big dog. But
in this spot, this doesn't feel like this is the

(08:49):
same old Bills man, Like there is a weakness to
this team. There is a reason to doubt this Bills team.
So yeah, before he came on, Matt Mitchell gave me
a little bit of relief, said that the the the
whatever is going on, Josh Allen, It's not a break, right,
That's what the fear was that he had maybe broken
his wrist. It's you know, we don't know what it

(09:09):
is yet, right, it's still early.

Speaker 2 (09:10):
In the week.

Speaker 3 (09:11):
I mean, God forbid, the forty nine ers didn te
Us McCaffrey was out until an hour before. Like, we
might not really know until right before kick what is
happening with his wrist. But if you can't take snaps
under center, that's a huge deal going forward for this
Hill's team. That he's always gonna have to be in shotgun,
that is a big deal. So yeah, this this feels

(09:32):
that kind of spot we like to play Miami. I
know we can't take them to contest, but if people
are gonna ask me what side do I like here
at minus two? As long as it you know, hopefully
maybe goes back down on one and a half, but
it might go up to two and a half. But
as long as it's two or down to one and
a half, I like Miami at that number.

Speaker 1 (09:48):
So I guess what was confusing to me is this
seems to me like you're playing what you saw on
the field in one game for each team and discounting
a lot of the trends that we usually rely on
in the first two weeks, all of which I just mentioned.

Speaker 3 (10:08):
And well you said historically I always take my like
I take two in the spot, so this is not
this year.

Speaker 2 (10:14):
This is last year too.

Speaker 3 (10:15):
So my guy, Evan Abrams, you got this in the
chat chat. Yeah, it's just sad two of favors of
three or less at home nine to three against the spread.
So suck on that, mister. One week chat.

Speaker 1 (10:29):
It wasn't the criticism what you're saying, but no, it's observation.
Just that.

Speaker 2 (10:35):
No, I'm with you.

Speaker 1 (10:37):
You know, like normally we like at least two weeks
of sort of data, and I always feel like week
three is when we can maybe be a week ahead
of the public, like we will have been able to
see things in the games and then apply that to
how bookmakers are lining these games after two weeks efectively

(11:00):
than we can after one week. And so to me,
all I'm saying is you're seeing on the fields some
things that make you feel like after both teams kind
of snuck out of the game at home for each
of them with a win. Right the Bills, they were
kind of they were getting blown out early, they were
down ten. I think they had to come back. They

(11:21):
got that game.

Speaker 2 (11:22):
It was seventeen to three in that game.

Speaker 1 (11:23):
Seventeen to three. So they came back with like you know,
because the Cardinals did Cardinals things. They made mistakes. Their defense,
you know, wasn't very good, which we expected. Kyler Murray
was playing as we hoped he would, and the Jags
basically gave that game away to Miami. So neither team
showed anything on the upside. They played like the teams

(11:45):
that are fallible that we expect them to be. That's
why I'm surprised a little bit by your strong opinion here.

Speaker 3 (11:50):
And wait on the injury report to ken because Miami
also both their starting runbacks might be hurt. And again
we don't know what the deals with Josh Allen. So
if you want to wait, I tell that A and
I'm just grabbing this number now just in case it
does go up.

Speaker 1 (12:03):
I am going to spare our listeners time on the
next game, LA Chargers of Carolina. Carolina is a six
and a half point undered up. Should we even bother?
Of course, the right side is the Panthers. I refuse
to subject our listeners to this kind of torture or
open ourselves up to even more ridicule.

Speaker 3 (12:25):
No, just know this is the pro side. Of course,
it's bet in Carolina and the Chargers. If you have time,
go and watch Herbert.

Speaker 2 (12:36):
In that game.

Speaker 3 (12:37):
I mean, oh my god, this man did not look
like the Herbert we all know and love. So the
horrball identity of just the run scheme I love so much.
So I understand why the movements come in here because
they do have an identity where this Carolina team has
zero and they have zero leadership. So Chad's Hesitation's right.

(12:58):
I won't be giving this out on this show people.
If you're gonna ask what side I'm on, obviously I'm
on the side of Carolina and probably gonna put them
in our money line round robin that I like to
give out.

Speaker 2 (13:08):
So I know it's gross, but it's.

Speaker 3 (13:10):
Like giving me plus two point fifty at home against
this Chargers team on the road. I have to do it.
So we'll not be one of our one of our five.
I promise you that. But yeah, Chad's right, we'll keep
it moving.

Speaker 1 (13:22):
This is the hard part about what we do and
doing it for public consumption, is we love the Panthers.
We talked about the Panthers. You know, we were standing
our ground on the Panthers. We also stood our ground
on the Lions. We also stood our ground on the Colts.

(13:44):
And like each game is only one game, but because
the Panthers were such an ugly dog, and because we
leaned into them so hard, even though it only counts
as one loss and the same way the Colts only
count as one win, it has just become so much
harder for us to swallow that that they've become a

(14:05):
little bit of poison for us. We will both probably
be on the Panthers. We will not put this in
the contest naked a big balls or anything else, as
tempted as we are going to be. When this game
all of a sudden rockets to seven on Thursday, Like
we just can't do it to people.

Speaker 2 (14:23):
We can the Panthers.

Speaker 3 (14:24):
It's what people hate about someone like me who does profession,
which is like you think you're so smart, you think
you know what so much more than me. I could
have told you six months ago that was a bad bet,
that the Panthers suck and they're a shitty team. It's
like you got me, like there is no rebuttal to that,
Like you got me after one week. So that's why
I'm praying, praying shad that that was mirage and they'd

(14:47):
turn around here. But man, me and you talked about it.
We watched that game tape. I broke that film down.
There is not much hope to grab onto. It just
all looks bad. So you are you and the fans
all right, we are not putting this team in. Even
if they do win and cover this game, I'm still
not gonna be convinced to put this one in for
a little bit.

Speaker 1 (15:05):
Well, that's also the hard part about the trends and
doing this on a week to week basis, and especially
like making big bets and taking big risks in week one,
is people hear that and we try to say with
the trends, you got to bet them every time, because
that's how you get the ROI, and that's how you
win fifty three percent of the time. Because if you

(15:26):
pick and choose your spots, then it could be that
you only choose it the four and a half to
five times that you lose. So you kind of once
you're in the game and you're grinding, you kind of
got to be in the game. It's it's like playing craps.
You can't just decide, like retenth role, you're gonna put
your money on the table. You got you gotta go

(15:47):
with it.

Speaker 3 (15:47):
Man. Even even last night, right we had the best
of the number and we were in a spot of
a trend we loved. Right, the team that loses the
Super Bowl, they're five and nineteen against the spread in
those spots. The forty nine ers have had covered a
home game in seven straight games up to that point.

Speaker 2 (16:01):
So it was like all these little things we loved
all let up to it. We got waxed.

Speaker 3 (16:05):
We looked like an idiot, eg in our face are
we We're nineteen and six on that bet. So it's
just like it is brutal right, you're so right, Like
it didn't work out for this time, but long term
that's a winner.

Speaker 2 (16:16):
So it's one we're gonna stick to long term.

Speaker 1 (16:18):
We're long term players here. We're not looking to score
big wins and then cash out. We just want to
keep going for the rest of our lives. New Orleans
at Dallas. Dallas is a six and a half point favorite.
The line was six on Sunday and it was moving.
We talked about it on Sunday night. Is one of
the first games that we talked about and sort of

(16:41):
our look ahead, we both hit it. You thought it
might get the seven. It's currently headed that way. Where
do you have this power rated? Actually, before I get into.

Speaker 3 (16:48):
That seven, and like, I liked it at the six, and
now it's at six and a half, it's like, all right, really,
do we still really want to play this one or
really that confident because this is pretty chalky.

Speaker 2 (17:01):
Yes, So we'll see as week.

Speaker 3 (17:02):
Goes along here if this is one of the favorites,
we do put in. But I'm assum we're all the
other favorites we like more than this one. But like
at six, that felt like a good number to take
Dallas at that number at home in this spot, you know,
we crossed that key number of six into six and
a half now, so it's like, yeah, my model says
there's still value here, But I can't tell you how

(17:23):
many times me and chat had been burned by that
extra point when we take a favorite in this spot.
So I don't want people here just to take the
six and a half just thinking, well, the guys are
on at six, I'll take the six and a half.

Speaker 2 (17:33):
It is a big deal to me.

Speaker 3 (17:35):
So if this is a game me and you pass
on this week, I have no issue with that. But
still like the Cowboys in this spot against a team
that we don't think they're that great just because they
put up fifty points against bad Carolina team. It's just,
you know, my hope is that this would have got
bet down and we would have got great value. And
that's a game I would have gave it on the show.

(17:55):
If this was five and a half, I would have
played this in contest. But actually it's called the other way.
I don't think the public's behind the bullshit. The Saints
are selling. So yeah, this is up to six and
a half of most books.

Speaker 2 (18:06):
Job.

Speaker 1 (18:06):
Well, look, that's what's really interesting. That's what I was
going to say, is you've got two teams coming off
of blowouts. Yeah, except the Cowboys. If you unpack it,
it's just so much more impressive. Right, And at the
end of the day, we're still talking about Dennis Allen
and Derek Carr, who are historically bad as coach and

(18:30):
quarterback straight up in this spot. So I have no
fear of betting the Cowboys here. This is a game
where Dak and the Cowboys tend to overperform. We like
Dallas at six six and a half. It's a question mark.
This game may steam to seven because Dallas was so
good and people may realize how bad the Saints really

(18:54):
are and that they beat up on just a really
bad team. Yeah, Las Vegas at Baltimore.

Speaker 2 (19:00):
It's Baltimore, gentlemen. The gods will not save you.

Speaker 1 (19:05):
I know this number is way too high. I want
to tell you something. I read this in The Athletic
this weekend the other day, and I thought this was
great in a wrap up of the Raiders game, because
I thought the decision making by Antonio Pierce was atrocious.

Speaker 2 (19:20):
Now that game.

Speaker 1 (19:21):
All the way around, it cost them the game.

Speaker 2 (19:23):
It definitely did.

Speaker 1 (19:25):
In the fourth quarter, they were down sixteen to ten.
They were on the Charger's forty three yard line. With
seven minutes fifteen seconds remaining, they had a fourth and one.
He decided not to go for it, and the camera
actually caught him saying, as they're lining up for the punt,
should I be going for this? For the Athletic, it

(19:48):
was the first time an NFL team had punted on
fourth and one from the opposing team's territory while trailing
in the fourth quarter since September eleventh, twenty sixteen, so
eight years. The Athletic rowth this was funny. It was
the league's most timid play call in that situation in

(20:09):
nearly eight years. I mean, what, how can we count
a coach like that, even as a nine and a
half point dog?

Speaker 2 (20:18):
Ah?

Speaker 3 (20:19):
Man, I know what if it's ten points, does that
intrigue you a little? Because I think it's going to
get there. I just I think the public'sent of the
view just as you're viewing it. And my hope is,
you know, someone gets in his ear and says, listen,
last year, when you were playing for a job, you
were winning, you were aggressive, it worked out for you.

(20:39):
Now you're playing to keep your job and you're going
to lose your job if you play to keep if
you're playing this way.

Speaker 2 (20:43):
So my fear with him is he doesn't know what
he's doing.

Speaker 3 (20:46):
Right in the first half, he was going for it
on their own side of the ball, like he was
super aggressive, and then it didn't work out for him.
So now he's going the other way and playing really conservative,
and it's like, dude, you're the team that has the
two turnovers in this game.

Speaker 2 (21:00):
You can't be going conservative.

Speaker 3 (21:01):
You're You're they're out gaining them and doing everything they
wanted to against that charges team and they only put
up ten points.

Speaker 2 (21:07):
I mean, Minshew had a good game.

Speaker 3 (21:09):
I know people want a bag on them, but it's
like he actually played pretty well in that game all
things considered.

Speaker 2 (21:15):
So uh yeah, I get I get.

Speaker 3 (21:18):
The hesitation, Chad, but you probably don't remember it. I do,
just because I remember a lot of our fun, ugly wins.
But we took the Raiders this exact scenario, you know,
not even I don't know, two years ago, and they
were like a ten point dog I think against the Ravens,
and I'm pretty sure they won outright, So.

Speaker 2 (21:39):
How do we not play this spot.

Speaker 3 (21:40):
I'm just I'm so tempted to take it because it
is one of the ugly dogs of the week, and
this this feels like what since he was last week, right,
since he losing outright broke all the survivor pools, That's
what feels like this Ravens team could be this week
where it's like everyone looks at like an easy game
where I like the guys up front match up again,
says Ravens front. Like again, that's the questions, right, the

(22:03):
Ravens front. I don't think they looked that great against
that Chiefs team.

Speaker 1 (22:07):
Chet so about their offensive line.

Speaker 3 (22:10):
Yeah, so, I don't know. Maybe I'll better get you
there by Thursday show. But if it's ten ten and
a half, how do we not get this in contest?
That's such a huge number for a Ravens team that
I don't think they deserve that type of respect yet.

Speaker 1 (22:24):
Well, look, I'm not gonna lie to you. I'm feeling
a little chalky today. A lot of games. I like, Okay,
we're chalky. I wasn't saying I wanted to bet the
Ravens at minus nine and a half. I was just
saying I wasn't committed to the Raiders yet, even though
of course this is the right side part of it
is a bias, Like you know, I don't think this

(22:46):
is a very good team, and you and I just
happened to disagree on this. I know you like the
Raiders and they're over. We couldn't get together and decide
that we liked the Raiders in the game last weekend.
I just don't trust them as a team right now. Minshew,
it was great twenty five or three three, I think,
yeah for two fifty seven in a touchdown one thing.

(23:07):
And the Ravens were not great on Thursday night. They
were not great on Thursday night, and they were a
toenail away from tying the game against the Kansas City Chiefs,
who will make all of this look so freaking easy,
right And so like then, I know John Harbaugh, if

(23:27):
he is coming off a buy or has at least
ten days to prepare twenty seven and eight straight up
twenty thirteen and two against the spread. Technically this is
nine days. So do I count this as nine days?
Do I count this as ten days?

Speaker 2 (23:46):
Do I put this in the spread?

Speaker 3 (23:47):
The lad brother, I mean it was seven seven and
a half and now it's up to nine and a half. Ten,
So like that's that is a lot of movement as well.

Speaker 1 (23:55):
Yeah, you're right, we're probably gonna have to bet this
gonna be. This is gonna be a hold your nose
and bet the number game. It is not right now,
we're not announcing it's a foxhole. It's definitely not assignment
says it's not an exec decision. Bucks at Lions another
big number. That number has moved from six to seven. Look,

(24:16):
we wanted to bet the Rams last week, and the
more we broke it down foundationally roster wise, we truly
believe this Lions team was just better all the way around,
and in the end we were proven right. It had
to be a terrible sweat because the Rams realized their
offensive line is so bad. Matthew Stafford basically had to
look at his first read and get rid of the ball,

(24:38):
and even doing that, Aiden Hutchinson nearly got to him
about fifteen times. For those of us who were on
Convince Me and if you watched Convince Me, our pregame
show on Sunday mornings in the Action Happen on YouTube.
We hit our same game parlay for that because we
had the Lions minus four and a half, we had
the under and we had Aiden Hutchinson over point seventy

(25:00):
five sacks, So we had to wait until the second
or last play of the game and then an overtime
dominant drive to cover both of those bets and cover
the SGP. But the Lions proved in the overtime. Why
are we bet on them? They just forced their will
on the Rams and ran down the field. They're just good.

(25:21):
They're really good.

Speaker 5 (25:22):
Every week is different and you don't know what it's
going to take. Do not, do not ever feel bad
about a win, man, They're too hard to come by.
You earn that win, no matter what you say. You
earn that win, and we will accept it.

Speaker 3 (25:35):
I know, I'm so torn on this game because it's
like I wanted to do the Lions and now it's
up to seven, and it's like they put it all
the way up there just so that I'd have to
question this where it's like I did like the value
on them, because let's face the Bucks, they might have
just played the worst defense on football. The Commanders they
might be atrocious on defense. We talked that head into
the season. They just they kind of sold it all,

(25:57):
got rid of everybody. You expect it to be like this,
but yeah, Yeah, this is tough, brother, this is this
is up to seven now, it's like, you know, seven,
seven and a half, I kind of want to be
on the Bucks there. It's like I just I still
see the Lions having some issues that can be taken
advantage of by this Bucks team. And even in the

(26:17):
playoffs last year, right like if if Baker had played well,
this is a totally different game, right Like this is
they they could have upset them, like they did have
some some things that we're working for them. So this
Detroit team, like we talked about, I think they're much
better than they were last year. So I'm gonna give
them the benefit of doubt here and I'll take this

(26:39):
if it gets down to six and a half again
on the Lions. But seven I'd pass on that.

Speaker 1 (26:44):
Yeah, I was gonna say it feels like a pass overall.
Like I don't trust the Bucks.

Speaker 2 (26:49):
No.

Speaker 1 (26:50):
I feel like against the Commanders they're going to get
too much credit. They're not a good team yet. And
this Lions team and Dan Campbell best coach against spread
the past five years, Jared Goff twenty six and nine
indoors against the spread the past three years. I think

(27:15):
like it's just they're really really good. Yeah, really good.
Line's average five point three years per carry.

Speaker 2 (27:27):
All of it too.

Speaker 3 (27:28):
It's just like we said, they can beat you in
so many different ways offensively, and we just, you know,
we saw what our hope was when we're like, okay,
we think this is one of the three best teams
in NFC. I know, I said I might have them
even ranked the number one.

Speaker 2 (27:40):
At one point.

Speaker 3 (27:42):
Jamis and Williams seen him take that next step for them.
That was probably the most exciting part of that game
to me. It's like, Okay, not only do they have
maybe a shutdown corner, their number two receiver might be
the guy they drafted, you know, whenever he was a
top twelve, top thirteen pick. Yeah, you got to be
feeling pretty damn good if you're Detroit Lions fan.

Speaker 1 (27:59):
Oh yeah. I mentioned at the top of the show
that we are coming to you live from our Tommy
John Home studios. That is because the good people of
Tommy John are the show's newest sponsor. If you haven't
heard me glow about Tommy John, let me just say this.
Sunday was an excruciating day in which my bets included

(28:24):
sweating the Detroit Lions to cover in overtime, the Aiden
Hutchinson sack and the Colts miracle backdoor cover against the Texans.
I was comfortable the whole day, the whole day, never
lost my cool because I was wearing my Tommy John underwear.

(28:46):
It is like a second skin, Simon. It makes me
feel so better on Sundays, I'm so much less stressed
because I'm wearing my Tommy John's. I'm just staying cool
only because of how comfortable and confident we feel in
Tommy John underwear. We were able to nail our big

(29:09):
balls better the week that Lions game, and Tommy John
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(29:30):
Save twenty five percent at Tommy John dot com slash favorites.
New York Tennessee Titans. Help me not overreact to what
we saw, which was Will Levis being confused making rookie
mistakes that cost his team the game. Evan gave us
that great stat about the Titans collapse on the Sunday

(29:51):
Night Show. They led the Bear seventeen nothing and lost
twenty four to seventeen. They failed to cover the spread
dogs of four plus points to lead by seven. Team
at any point in the game were sixty six one
and one against the spread since two thousand and nineteen.

(30:11):
What are we doing here?

Speaker 2 (30:13):
Yeah?

Speaker 3 (30:13):
I wanted to go Jets, you know, to me, this
is me one of our chalkier picks, because I was like,
you know what, the Jets will covered last night and
then this number will probably get down or I mean
I should say go up to minus six. Didn't work
that way, right, I think there are still some major
questions about this Jets defense, still some questions about what

(30:34):
their identity is going to be on offense. So I
get the public being a little weary of this game, right.
This numbers moved to three and a half now to
a couple of books. You know, professionals are just guys
taking this number here with Tennessee because I just I
can't see who publicly.

Speaker 2 (30:49):
Is betting Tennessee, right, I think, you know.

Speaker 3 (30:52):
They were one of the more public dogs of the
week last week, and everyone got burned, Like everyone got burned.
So Tennessee was definitely gonna be a team that was like, Okay,
me and Chat will probably have to bet this next week. Now,
I'm not feeling as forced into it because I think
you have the same hesitation as I do. What confidence
do we have? And Will levis I just I have none.

(31:13):
I just if it's third and five, I'm just I'm terrified,
And especially when it's him thrown against Sauce and like
these other guys they got it's it's not good. So
I'm trying to view this of the Jets just ran
into maybe the best team in the NFC. Rogers, to me,
he looked like his old self. I don't know you
thought about a Chad, but like seeing a couple of
his throws, I mean it's just like, Wow, this guy's

(31:35):
arm talent is just out of this world, and you
kind of forget that sometimes.

Speaker 1 (31:38):
So oh my god, there was that laser, not the
deep ball, but along the sideline. Oh my god.

Speaker 2 (31:47):
That Yeah.

Speaker 3 (31:48):
So that's where I'm mad at with it, where it's
like you're gonna give me three and a half, I'll
go with the public. I'll take the Jets here, But
I don't know if this will be one of our five.
I don't know if this is one of our favorites,
but it could be come Thursday, because right now I
have bet at minus three and a half. But I'm
just trying not to overreact too much to what happened

(32:09):
to this Jets team against the forty nine ers, and
I feel like I'm properly reacting with Will Levis against
that Bears defense, where it's like, if you have a
good secondary, I think that's gonna be this Tennessee's teams kryptonite,
where they're good at running the ball and everything like that,
but when it comes time to pass it, he just
he's not gonna be that guy for you. So I
think the Bears have a really good secondary. I think
the Jets have even better of a secondary. So I'm

(32:30):
I'm gonna back the Jets.

Speaker 2 (32:31):
In the spot.

Speaker 1 (32:32):
Yeah, look, the trends are all over back in the Titans.
Everything I mentioned at the top of the show, they
all back the Titans. And then I'll give you a
couple others here from Evan. Teams that open as four
or higher at home in weeks one and two fifty
eight percent against the spread the past twenty years. Teams

(32:53):
that open at four or higher at home after losing
their previous game sixty four percent since twenty twenty and
this this is one that we usually love. Teams to
blow a ten point lead in week one, the next
week in week two, twenty eight, seventeen and one against

(33:14):
the spread since nineteen ninety That includes the Cardinals, the Jags,
and the Titans.

Speaker 2 (33:23):
Interesting, I know, interesting.

Speaker 1 (33:28):
I know, But it's like, why are we making We
say all the time like we don't want to overreact,
and I know you just said you're trying not to,
but I have we just decided Will Levis is so
bad that he breaks the trend? Right? Is that is
that where we're at?

Speaker 3 (33:46):
Well, like you say all the time, Chad, there's a
couple on the other side of those trends, there's winners, right,
So it's like they don't always win.

Speaker 2 (33:53):
I think we'll love us as part of that other
side of that trend. So interesting.

Speaker 3 (33:57):
Tik though, on the game other games you mentioned, because
I do obviously reviewing those games that that could help
skew me towards the side I want to go to
with those those games.

Speaker 2 (34:04):
We're about to talk to you. You're gambler who bets
on the Jets. Have you not learned anything about betting?

Speaker 1 (34:10):
The Jets are gonna come back, gonna Seattle in New England.
New England is a three point underdog at home right now.
So with this, this hits the trends. But I don't
like it. Ed ain't no go ahead.

Speaker 3 (34:25):
Yeah, I was gonna say. I just saw Brandon Anderson.
He was telling me one of his early bets, I
believe with Seattle.

Speaker 1 (34:30):
Which I'm about to say that.

Speaker 2 (34:32):
Yeah, I think that's fair. I said to me, that's
a fair bet.

Speaker 3 (34:35):
But it's like, man, is that offensive line terrible for Seattle?
Like they're so bad it makes me a little scary
to bet them because most books are showing minus three
and a half.

Speaker 2 (34:48):
So yeah, that's that's crazy.

Speaker 3 (34:51):
People are taking Seattle at minus three and a half
on the road in this spot.

Speaker 1 (34:54):
But Evan and Brandon Anderson and Brendan Glasheen, who's the
show the Action Network podcast Sunday Night wrap up show.
One of my favorite segments that we do is Brandon's
very early lines breakdown. He's always got a nugget we
may have missed right, and you and I did not
talk about the Seahawks in early betting. On Sunday night

(35:18):
on our show, he was saying, you got to get
it before it gets to three and a half. It
was already getting into three and a half Monday morning,
came back down, it's gone back up, so we know
that like Wise guys are hitting that three. It's not
the public betting Seattle early in the week, and I
think some of this is sort of carryover from the
week before. I think the Wise guys love Mike McDonald's defense.

(35:41):
They love what he is going to be able to
do with that team. They only allow three point three
yards per play, even though it was against a rookie quarterback.
But the truth is the Pat's O line is actually
worse than Denvers. So I can see why there is
sentiment to play New England or to play Seattle in
this spot.

Speaker 3 (36:01):
Yeah, to me, the three you take. If you can
get the three for Seattle, you take it. I just
the three and a half. I feel like that's where
we're having contest. That's gonna be hard to do. But
New England's bad. Like even when I went back and
watched the tape, it's like it really was just Cincinnati shooting.

Speaker 2 (36:15):
Themselves in the foot. Constant.

Speaker 3 (36:17):
I mean, you know, Stevenson, he might being more underrated
running backs and all football for this Patriots team.

Speaker 2 (36:23):
I think it was like one.

Speaker 3 (36:24):
Hundred and nineteen yards of his was after contact, Like
this guy is getting hit in the backfield and still
turning out three and four yards at a chunk.

Speaker 2 (36:33):
So yeah, I wish it was lower. Check is two
and a half.

Speaker 3 (36:37):
This is a no brainer. Seattle minus two and a half.
I would have loved that. But that's my pause where
I'm trying to play this in the contest. It's like,
I don't want to put this in a minus three
and a half. This just feels like this game is
gonna land on three right. It just that's just how
I see it going where. Yeah, on paper, Seattle is
way better, like even we even talk about their offense

(37:00):
weapons here, like Kenneth Walker. I know this sounds crazy,
you say compared to Cincinnati, but I'd much rather have
Kenneth Walker than anything Cincinnati is running out there.

Speaker 2 (37:09):
DK Metcalf.

Speaker 3 (37:10):
I know he doesn't get the praise that Chase gets
because Chase was a top five receiver taken. DK is
not that far off, and now you're bringing in the
number two receiver Locket. We love Lockett, like he played
great in that game for them against Denver, Like whenever
you know, needed a big third down, he went to
Locket a lot. So yeah, I like it like I

(37:31):
like it at minus three. Chat, It's just we're talking
contests here.

Speaker 2 (37:34):
I know.

Speaker 3 (37:35):
I know these son of the bitches that do our contest.
They're not gonna give us the two and a half.
They're gonna give us the minus three and a half.
So that that is tough, knowing that it's just it's
just a bad number.

Speaker 2 (37:46):
But yeah, grab grab the three.

Speaker 3 (37:48):
Now.

Speaker 2 (37:48):
If you want to be on the chalky side and
take Seattle, don't forget.

Speaker 1 (37:51):
You can still sign up for the contest, win some
money every single week. Plus you get to drop your
worst score after the first five weeks, so you still
got a shot. Favorite dot actionnetwork dot com.

Speaker 4 (38:02):
They are a mature, physically powerful squad with a special
confidence that allows them to reach for heroism instead of
merely trying to avoid mistakes.

Speaker 1 (38:15):
San Francisco at Minnesota. Minnesota is a six point dog.
This one moved a point off of the Niners win
on Monday Night Football, and it's not hard to see
why they had zero problems moving the ball against what
is supposed to be the top ranked d line in

(38:35):
the league. What's interesting to me last week against the Giants,
Brian Flores, who's known for bringing pressure, did not really
bring pressure very often and they still dominated Daniel Jones,
because you know, it's the Giants or whatever. But if
they do that this week, I don't know that it

(38:55):
would impact Rock Party all that much because Brock Party
last year one of only six qbs to allow fewer
than fifteen percent of their pressured dropbacks to become sacks.
He's just nifty, He's nifty in the pocket. He's very crafty, Simon.
So I don't want to bet this game.

Speaker 2 (39:19):
Yeah, I like I like the forty nine ers.

Speaker 3 (39:21):
I think it's still public perception here of like a
little bit of questioning this forty nine ers team.

Speaker 2 (39:26):
I can't believe this isn't seven.

Speaker 3 (39:27):
So me and Chatt when we did our show Sunday night,
they were minus five just because the Vikings had played
so well and people are still a little unsure this
forty ures team. Terrifying that this only moved to point
Chad like this. This feels a lot like the colch
Houston game where the books are taking that position here
and they know this will be in every money line teaser,

(39:49):
like everyone's gonna throw this game in because they're just
like me. And you're right that the forty nine Ers
were the best team in football or number two behind
the Chiefs.

Speaker 2 (39:57):
It's like nothing changed.

Speaker 3 (39:59):
They came out and what were they dominant at. They
were dominant running the ball, and they were dominant at
the linebacker position. I mean, it's incredible if eyone wer
just changes the whole game, right like that strip sack
in the very beginning of the game, I go, yeah,
that's the best linebacker in football.

Speaker 2 (40:14):
Not shocking.

Speaker 3 (40:15):
Oh, they have some undrafted free agent running the ball
for them, and he's runs for one hundred and forty
yards and a touchdown for the forty nine Ers.

Speaker 2 (40:22):
Not that shocking.

Speaker 3 (40:23):
Kyle Shanahan is calling one of the best run blocking
schemes in all of football. We all know this, So yeah,
crazy number here. I'll take the six for now. Maybe wow,
just because I think I'll keep going up. But yeah,
this is a this is an interesting game here, Chad,
where it's like I still think they're a little bit

(40:43):
undervalue in this forty nine ers team.

Speaker 1 (40:46):
I don't think we really have so far. We don't
have many games that we are dying to take in
this contest right now. I've got four games listed that
were kind of looking at, but we have not planted
a flag in the sand on any game at this point.
I just want you to know that, Yeah, And.

Speaker 3 (41:07):
I definitely think it's because of all these high six lines.
We have a lot of six six and a half's
right now. So it's making me a little uneasy here
because it's like I immediately want to take the dogs,
right I think I even't had a great stat last week.
I think every dog that was six points are more covered,
and so it's like I'm trying not to do what
I did last week of just taking all dogs again

(41:28):
because it seems like the favorites have been good to
these Joe public bets. So I'm trying not to let
the public money scare me off, just because again, me
and you a year ago, we would have been all
over this Vikings in this spot, like this feels like
the exact game we like to play. But it's just like,
you know, these have not been cashing for me and
Chad like they used to, So I'm trying to adjust
to that.

Speaker 1 (41:47):
Yeah, we got to be smart, got to look at
the market as it is, not as we want it
to be. Hey man, I thought that was pretty good.
It was right there Indianapolis at Green Bay. So look,
this game was two and a half on night. We
knew that we had a feeling Jordan Love wouldn't be playing.
We had seen the injury on Friday. You said, bet

(42:09):
the Cults to two and a half. If you were
smart enough to get the Cult to two and a half,
good for you. It is now at three and a half.
Malik Willis will be the starter. This one scares me
as it gets higher because all of these trends are
in play, and this is exactly when the public is
going to jump off the Packers bandwagon. But you know,

(42:31):
the backups coming into games as dogs in their first
start the past three seasons fifty five percent against the spread.
So it's not crazy for a backup to come in
and perform better than the public expects them to perform.
And it's not like the Cults are super Bowl team

(42:53):
right now. It's ANTHONYA. Richardson's nineteenth start since college, right
and now he's going to Green Bay. They're not going
to roll over. Like they still have a good defense,
Like there's still going to be a team that tries
to confuse a young quarterback. They're just not going to
be as effective with Malik Willis, at least we don't
think they will be. But no one's ever seen the

(43:14):
guy play.

Speaker 3 (43:16):
Yeah, and we last week of the Colts, we played
the number and we got lucky, Like the guy was
nine for nineteen, right, and so lucky a couple of
those completions. It's like, like we said, him missing a
guy wide opening the end zone and throwing a pick,
You just you don't come back from that, especially a
guy like him who's only made four or five starts
in the NFL. So you wanna play roulette again, Chad,

(43:40):
that's what you're kind of doing here, trying to take this.

Speaker 2 (43:44):
I don't know.

Speaker 3 (43:45):
It's I felt good about the Colts when we got
two and a half in three. Now that it's up
to three and a half and maybe going to four,
it's like this is usually where me and you like
to back the floor in these kind of spots, Like he's, yeah.

Speaker 1 (43:56):
This is a no brainer to me to back the floor,
even though it's Phillips. Yeah, like like to me, I
just added green Bay A plus three and a half
to our list of games to review on Thursday, because
I feel like la Floor early season is also a
brilliant coach against right, we got a lot of numbers
to back it up. So it's hard not to think

(44:20):
about backing Green Bay in this point. Matt Mitchell, Man,
Mitchell here going, it's distracting me right now, Matt Mitchell
like he is losing his mind that we were talking
about back in the league. Willison wown.

Speaker 2 (44:35):
I gotta say, I'm a little ashamed of you. How
much is enough?

Speaker 1 (44:38):
But look like it's it's like I'm backing the number
at this point.

Speaker 2 (44:43):
Back That's what I feel about it. I'm a little nauseous. Yeah,
it's outrageous. It's like I trust Lafloor.

Speaker 3 (44:50):
If this kid can't complete it two yards, Lafloor is
going to know that and they will run some type
of spread off. He's just another running back. Like it's
going to be ugly. It's going to be I mean,
trust me, Matte. No one here wants to make this bet.
We're doing this because we have to. Like Chad, you said,
we're playing the numbers here and the trends, so I

(45:10):
feel like they're all gonna point to see I'm like,
we have another game coming up that's even grosser that.

Speaker 2 (45:15):
I mean.

Speaker 3 (45:15):
I know Evan's gonna have some amazing trends on that
just backs this team, and it's like eating me.

Speaker 2 (45:20):
That we have to bet them.

Speaker 3 (45:21):
But this is another team that's like, I hate that
we have to do it, and I know our fans hate.

Speaker 2 (45:26):
But this is what makes this show so great.

Speaker 3 (45:27):
This is why we always have a winning record, is
we do bet these ugly dogs on long term, they
pay out for us. So yeah, three and a half,
I'll take Green Bay, But the hope is this gets
the four.

Speaker 1 (45:39):
I mean, here's the problem right now. The games that
we've shown the most passion for Raiders at nine and
a half and the Packers at three and a half.
I mean, come on, oh my god, we are just
thank god I got those times.

Speaker 3 (45:56):
You have some favorites done. You just hate betting favorites.
I'm I'm trying to give you favorite. You just hate
betting favorites.

Speaker 1 (46:01):
I hate betting favorite. Look, I want to bet the
favorites too. I actually do want to bet.

Speaker 2 (46:04):
The county to the trends.

Speaker 1 (46:06):
You know, I think the Cowboys are going to blow
the Saints out. I don't think it's going to be
even close. So okay, I think I think we'll get
there with them. But Jesus, I cannot believe we were
taking the Packers seriously right now.

Speaker 5 (46:22):
So go on side in it's raining bull shit.

Speaker 1 (46:29):
Not I do think. I do think it will be
proven out. We still owe assignment says, we still owe
an exact decision. We'll probably do Foxhole like on Thursday,
as we do Big Best. Yeah, I saw New York
Giants at Washington Commanders two and a half. Look, I

(46:49):
saw a lot of bets this week piloting into the
action app for Jaydon Daniels at Offensive Rookie of the
Year plus five hundred. Overall home favorites in the division
are five hundred against the spread or worse in six
straight seasons. So not a trend where you wouln't necessarily
want to back the Commanders. Home division favorites four points

(47:14):
or less forty five percent against the spread weeks in
the past twenty years weeks one to three forty forty
one percent against the spread, so I'm not betting the Giants.

Speaker 2 (47:28):
That's to the pros are on.

Speaker 3 (47:30):
It's already down at one and a half in almost
every book, So well.

Speaker 1 (47:34):
Then we're definitely not betting the Giants because we're not
even getting the best of the number.

Speaker 3 (47:37):
Dan, I just don't want to fucking do it. I'm
sick of it like that. That just left the worst
taste you can possibly in my mouth. I don't really
have a read on either team here. It's like, Okay,
the biggest weakness in this game is the Commander's defense.
Do we really believe Daniel Jones in this offense can
take advantage of that. No, but they're going to They're
gonna find a way. Like they're not going to play

(47:58):
as bad as they were last week. I guarantee you
that they're gonna have more than six points. The question
is can they outscore this Commander's offense that does seem
to have somewhat of an identity. They have a rookie
quarterback that can panic and pull the ball down and
he can run for days.

Speaker 2 (48:14):
And you know, we talked about it before the season started.

Speaker 3 (48:18):
I just I said, I can't see this kid, Daniels
last in the season I stand by it, like he
just feels a little bit of pressure on him. He's off,
he's doing one or two reads and he's off, and
he doesn't slide either. He goes for the contact. Like
this kid, he's gonna learn the hard way. So yeah,
the the pro pro money's gonna come in the Giants.

Speaker 2 (48:40):
So not shocked that this number has moved down here.

Speaker 3 (48:43):
I'm with Chat. This left such a bad daste in
my mouth. I don't want to bet either team in
this one.

Speaker 1 (48:48):
Jacksonville and Cleveland here, I think it's a really interesting game,
Cleveland at Jacksonville. Look, we had another lawsuit file against
Deshaan Watson. There are questions about wherehether or not he
is cooked or should even be starting at this point.
He genuinely looks like he doesn't know what is what
he was doing out there. I think the only person

(49:09):
coming out of the Dallas game with more criticism is
Tom Brady. But I'm bump, you're that at you right,
It's true, But look the Jags like they withered, They
completely withered in the heat against the Dolphins. Like Doug
Peterson lost his ever loving mind. He went for it

(49:31):
on fourth down deep in his own territory in a
close game. What was he thinking, like to just give
up field position like that. It didn't really matter because
the Dolphins ended up missing a field goal. But like,
to me, that was the mindset we got Trevor Lawrence.
And like in the first half he looked like he
was on pace to throw, pace to throw for thrive

(49:51):
five hundred yards, ended the game with less than two hundred.
Like they couldn't operate in the second half.

Speaker 3 (49:57):
Yeah, And it's also rare in life for like, you know,
bad people sometimes get away with it in life, right,
they can go through life, they can succeed, they have
a good life. It seems like all this horrible karma
is finally coming back on Watson, which is just I
love it. He just seems like everything you read about him,
he just seems like truly a horrible, horrible person. And

(50:20):
even the last one I just read about it, it's like,
oh my god, this guy's so horrible, so uh looking
out that we're supposed to me and Chad be on
Cleveland here like this is this is the bet me
and Chad always make the last six years and even
the trends.

Speaker 2 (50:37):
I couldn't believe.

Speaker 3 (50:37):
I was looking through our data and pulling up trends
and trying to see, like, okay, all the trends also
point too this Cleveland team here. But then I went
back to what me and Chad talk about all the time,
which is up front, right, the guy's up front. And
you know, before the Jaguars blew that game to Miami,
their front four was getting an incredible amount of pressure

(51:00):
on Tua.

Speaker 2 (51:01):
Yes, what will be different there?

Speaker 3 (51:03):
And then for this game, they're going against even worse
offensive line here, Like you know, I you know Joshua Allen,
say what you want about the kid.

Speaker 2 (51:14):
He was incredible last game.

Speaker 3 (51:15):
Even the you know, they have a couple guys up
front they can get pressure for this Jags team. So
I'm having a tough time because this is up to
minus three and a half chat. But there are a
couple of books out there that have the minus three
because the pro money is going to come in on
this Cleveland team. Like I said, there's a lot of
benefits to betting Cleveland team if you like just betting trends.

Speaker 2 (51:34):
The human part of me, I can't get over there.
I just think this Jaguars seems the better team, and
I do have questions like you talked about you and
you nailed it.

Speaker 3 (51:43):
Like Callahan leaving this that Browns organization and going down
to Tennessee and leaving that offensive line that was such
a huge deal. And now yeah, they got two or
three backups coming into the offensive line, which to me,
he would have helped, right, he would have coached them
up to make it work for a game or two.

Speaker 2 (52:00):
They don't have that luxury.

Speaker 3 (52:01):
So I think the line's right, Like I think the
Jaguars should be mine three and a half. So again,
another chalky pick by me. But it's like, I just
can't get there with this this Cleveland team.

Speaker 2 (52:13):
So I'm hoping Evan's.

Speaker 3 (52:14):
Gonna put out his trends article maybe he can try
to get me on the other side. But right now
I'm pretty dug in on the Jaguars.

Speaker 1 (52:22):
Deshaun Watson had one hundred and sixty nine passing yards
on forty five attempts. No quarterback has ever had fewer
than two hundred yards on forty five attempts in a
week one, and it has only been done twice in
the regular season since two thousand.

Speaker 2 (52:39):
I mean, it doesn't even sound real.

Speaker 1 (52:41):
Forty five attempts one hundred and sixty nine yards. That's insanity,
it really is. But what I'm getting is you you
said this game is lined right, but you're also on
the Jaguars. So does that mean you're finding an edge
in the Jaguars or because you said you're betting it?

Speaker 3 (52:59):
Yeah, because I had this four so to me minus three, Like,
I like the value there. I told you my fear
is I talked to a bunch of professionals and they
are giving me all the reasons why they're back in
Cleveland here and apparently a bunch of trends point to it.

Speaker 2 (53:11):
And I found a couple of trends they did.

Speaker 3 (53:12):
But I'm hoping again Evan has an article about what
these trends are, because it's just like, I don't really
see their reasoning for it.

Speaker 2 (53:19):
Like they're.

Speaker 3 (53:22):
Everyone with eyes watched Watson play that game. I know
they the same people say, well, what about the Jaguars?
And Trevor Lawrence has been incredibly disappointing. They're not even
on the same planet, the disappointment between him and Watson,
Like we can attribute a lot of what failed Trevor
Lawrence up to Doug Peterson, right, and so I think
there's stuff there you could correct. Stefanski's putting Watson in

(53:43):
the best position he could possibly put this guy in.
He's getting the entire offense to him and it's not working.
So that's that's my big takeaway from this one.

Speaker 1 (53:52):
Feel bad for Stefanski. I think he's a brilliant coach
and he has just been saddled with an albatross of
a quarterback and a contract that they can not get
out of.

Speaker 3 (54:01):
I think he had an opinion though, and he had
an opinion on Baker.

Speaker 2 (54:04):
I think he was part of it. So don't feel
too bad for him.

Speaker 1 (54:07):
Yeah, you're right. He doesn't feel bad for me if
things don't go right, like if I go to if
I go to and during in the contest, it's not
like he's sitting there saying, you know what, I feel
bad for Chad, Like they did good work, they made
the right.

Speaker 2 (54:16):
Thing, Dallas against me.

Speaker 1 (54:18):
You know he's not that Uh, don't forget sign up
for the Favorites podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football
Pick Him Contest presented by bet three six five. If
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Speaker 2 (54:41):
First, Lads of takes.

Speaker 1 (54:43):
All Right, really interesting game. Rams at Arizona Cardinals. Arizona
is a one and a half point favorite. They open
is a two and a half point underdog. Teams to
open as the underdog and close as the favorite forty
two percent against the spreads two thousand and eighteen one

(55:03):
in one so far this year, Vikings and Browns in
Week one. Look, I thought the Rams were outperformed. I
thought the Rams outperformed the Lions, especially in the second half.
Like I said, Stafford knew he was going to get
rocked if he didn't get rid of the ball, and
he did that brilliantly. They really lost just because at

(55:24):
the end of the day, the Lions are a better team.
Arizona came out hot and then did what Arizona always dogs.
It made the mistakes. I don't think their defense is
good enough, and I think there's enough on film for
the Rams to figure out, Okay, here's what we can
do against the Cardinals. And I was really impressed with

(55:44):
the Rams defense in that game.

Speaker 2 (55:49):
Make this line a pick so IBOs.

Speaker 3 (55:51):
When it opened, I was like, okay, we'll be on
the Cardinals here now, like you had just said, it's
moved so much.

Speaker 2 (55:58):
The Rams are probably the play here. But it's like, man,
this this is a coin flip game.

Speaker 3 (56:05):
There really isn't that much value either side to me,
and I think you did nail a chat where it's
like both defenses are terrible, so whoever as the ball last,
they win and cover this number, right, And that's yeah
to us, that's impossible for us to know.

Speaker 2 (56:20):
You know, my.

Speaker 3 (56:21):
Safe cowardly play here. It's the tease number. It's perfect.
It's it's minus one and a half. It's plus one
and a half right now for the Rams, you can
take it up to seven and a half.

Speaker 2 (56:29):
So do it.

Speaker 3 (56:32):
Take that Take that teaser right now, take it up
to seven and a half. Because Chad just nailed it.
It's like, I don't know how professionals don't come in
on the Rams at this point.

Speaker 2 (56:40):
How does that money.

Speaker 3 (56:41):
Not come in on them as this week goes alonger
Because you just said it, It's like, okay, the Rams
big weakness right now, what's failing them is their all
offensive line and all those injuries.

Speaker 2 (56:51):
Who's taking advantage of that for this Arizona team.

Speaker 1 (56:54):
We just watched it.

Speaker 2 (56:54):
I mean, I know it's Josh Allen. It's like he's
the ultimate cheat code.

Speaker 3 (56:57):
But they had no push up front, and especially that
second half when they got tired, like their legs were
just gone by the second half.

Speaker 2 (57:05):
So, yeah, Chad this maybe.

Speaker 3 (57:08):
On Thursday, I'll have a clear view on it. Right now,
but I hate when it's just these one one and
a half numbers where it's like, I don't really feel
like I'm getting any value here. You know, maybe we'll
get it like the Colts, right maybe the bets will
come in on Arizona and we'll get it up to
two and a half, such a key number, and we'll
take the Rams there. But one and a half, I'm
just teasing this number.

Speaker 1 (57:26):
Look, I think Arizona is still a trendy public dog.
I think people love them against the Bills, and I
think the way they performed against the Bills is going
to have people more excited and more enthusiastic. I'm hopeful
this number will move in our direction because I would
I would like to take the Rams in the spot

(57:48):
I'm not. I'm purposely not talking about tickets and money
percentages yet because it's still just too early, like there's.

Speaker 2 (57:56):
Nothing to Yeah, it's too early for that, you.

Speaker 1 (57:58):
Know, So like I don't, I know people like it
when I do that. I'm just there's not enough volume.

Speaker 3 (58:04):
Once once the public gets weed it out, like in
four or five weeks, then we can really do the
Tuesday money because that's that's literally professional money.

Speaker 2 (58:13):
Well, they better read on it.

Speaker 3 (58:14):
Right now, it's still the next bag early in the season.
Kind of everyone's like, you know, throwing the money around
early in the year.

Speaker 1 (58:21):
Simon, we still owe a Simon says, we still own
exec decision. Oh, it's going up on a game.

Speaker 3 (58:25):
We're probably gonna play over the same game, aren't we.

Speaker 1 (58:28):
No, No, I know, I know. How strong will you
feel about one of the games coming up? I'm deferring
to you Cincinnati and Kansas City. Kansas City is a
six point favorite. You set it on Sunday night. You
were all over it on Sunday night. It was at six,
it moved down to five and a half. You liked
the Bengals. You were on the side of the money

(58:48):
moving the number back to six.

Speaker 3 (58:52):
Go ahead, yeah, And it's a funny thing where we
talk on the show Sunday Night and I have a
guy called me up and he's telling me all the
reasons why he likes the Chiefs, and I said, fuck you,
then keep ben the Chiefs to get me a seven, Like,
don't fucking tell me about it.

Speaker 2 (59:04):
Put your money up so I can get a better number.
I get where.

Speaker 3 (59:06):
Everyone's coming from this. It's like Joe Burrow Evan might
have a stat on this. I don't think he's never
won a Week two game, Chad, I could be wrong.

Speaker 1 (59:14):
Well, look I can tell you right now that Joe
Burrow is now two and seven in weeks one and
two against the spread. Yeah, he's terrible. Obviously lost and
didn't cover in week one, so keep going.

Speaker 3 (59:29):
So with all that said, Simon says, give me.

Speaker 1 (59:31):
The Simon say.

Speaker 2 (59:34):
When we do what Sion say, I do think what
Chad just says. True though, I think this will go down.

Speaker 3 (59:41):
I just I see the professional money coming in, like
we said us Sunda Night. When I got to six
and a half, it's like, did did he really get
three points worse than he was a week ago? I
just I think that was the game from hell, everything
went wrong and maybe I am overlooking that DJ Reader
left and you know he isn't right. His throwing wrist
isn't right, and you know T Higgins might miss another game.

(01:00:02):
And they did lose Joe Mixon. Now they don't have
a running game for Joe. Burt will fall back on
in We have overrated Joe Burrow just because he beat
Mahomes at one time to make it to the super Bowl.

Speaker 2 (01:00:12):
And it's like, Okay, I hear all this noise.

Speaker 3 (01:00:16):
I still got to trust the number. It's like Mahomes
at this price point. He does not blow teams out.
We always talk about this. It's like, Okay, put him
in your teaser. He's gonna win this game, no doubt. Right,
this is the games he usually wins. He doesn't roll
teams in these kind of scenarios. So the fear is
what you just talked about. Joe Burrow in his career,

(01:00:37):
he has struggled early in the season. The first two weeks.
He is bad Evan just putting on our his thing.
He's zeroing four straight up in week two. Joe Burrow
in his career, So I'm not asking to bet that
money line here.

Speaker 5 (01:00:47):
I won't.

Speaker 3 (01:00:47):
I promise I won't put the money line around Robin,
but I am asking to grab the six now just
because this could go down to five and a half.

Speaker 2 (01:00:53):
And six is such a key number.

Speaker 3 (01:00:55):
So yeah, I feel confident in taking making the Simons says,
if this is six and a half in our co
I think meetchad no doubt we'll have this one in.
At five and a half, that's a discussion. But at
six and a half, I definitely feel confident in putting
it in.

Speaker 1 (01:01:08):
So look, everybody knows that I love the luck rankings.
We talk about it all the time. It's become a
really important signal for us when we talk about these games.
And Nick Giffen is now coming on convince me one
of the predictive analytics gurus we have in our team
who helped create the luck rankings. This is one of
our two luck ranking sides of the week. We're going

(01:01:30):
to talk about the other one. But this is one
of the games where if you separate the signals from
the noise, you are looking at a game in which
the Chiefs might have been overly lucky the week before
and the Bengals might have been unlucky the week before
and if you bring those two factors together, you're finding
a lot of value on the plus six. Also, Patrick

(01:01:54):
Mahomes has more than a field goal favorite forty eight
percent against spread seventy five percent by the way three
or shorter, so well above three. As Simon said, this
has moved more than three points since last week, from
three to three and a half to six. Mahomes ten

(01:02:16):
thirteen and two against the spread. When the line moves
two plus points towards his team, we're betting the overreaction here,
Like we can't be timid, we can't be shy. We
still got to exercise the same best practices we know
to exercise. The game hasn't changed that much, just because
the public hasn't lost in nineteen freaking weeks, including eighteen

(01:02:38):
last year and one week this year. Like some things
need to be true. We need something to be freaking
true right now. But yes, Simon says, on the Bengals,
I bet at plus six, you're betting at plus six.
We're all betting at plus six. Pittsburgh at Denver. We
miffed last week, but what.

Speaker 4 (01:02:58):
No one had counted on was the surprising resolve of
these young Steelers.

Speaker 1 (01:03:02):
Like we should have bet the Steelers. It was the
prime Mike Tomlin spot. I don't know why we didn't.
We got cowardly because of Justin Fields, which was stupid.
The aggressive Steelers turned the game around.

Speaker 2 (01:03:14):
Mike Tomlin just kept with too much noise. I think
you're the same boat as me.

Speaker 3 (01:03:17):
You just you had too many people in your ear
telling you too much shit and just stare us off it.

Speaker 1 (01:03:20):
I agree, And also I think, honestly, I think we
were too locked in on games from from the offseason.
We firmly had bias. That was just the problem. Mike
Tomlin has a dog on the road. You book it
one hundred percent. Book it. Mike Tomlin is a road favorite.
Forty four percent spread.

Speaker 3 (01:03:38):
Last week was last week, This week was this week,
next week will be next week.

Speaker 1 (01:03:42):
When Tomlin opens is three or higher on the road
thirty eight percent that alone, and this has been a
spot we have bet for years. Right, So we're gonna
have to bet Denver plus three here. I will say
Denver is another team that fits into the luck rankings.
There is a caveat Week two, home locked teams are

(01:04:04):
five hundred against the spread, so there isn't I can't
give you that as a factor, but I do like
everything else going the Broncos way. To be honest, I
was impressed with the Broncos last week. Like I thought
they were super competitive. It was a backdoor, you know,
sort of pushed for them because the game landed on six.

(01:04:25):
But I was impressed with the bank with the Broncos.

Speaker 3 (01:04:27):
I'm still glad because I was so worried You're gonna
come in Pittsburgh with this is a no brain or Denver.
I dare the sports books to move this up to
three and a half. Oh my god, I can't have
that much money I'd put on this If it's justin
Fields as a minus three and a half favorite on
the road, It's like, man, too much love and respect,
and you know, unlike whatever the hell Atlanta did last week,

(01:04:50):
Chempaign's going to have it schemed up just for JJ Watt.
Everything they do will be either throwing him off balance
or moving the ball the other way. Just keep him
totally out out of involvement of this entire game. So yeah,
I love this number. And it also wouldn't even talk
about Denver at home. This is another thing I need
to get off. Evan but it's like in my lifetime,

(01:05:11):
in the first two weeks, whatever the number used to be,
I used to always take Denver at home. And now
you know, these last four or five years I've taken
I've taken a step back from just betting it blindly
just because Denver had drafted so terribly and they just
kept putting out terrible teams.

Speaker 2 (01:05:25):
Chad nailed it, though.

Speaker 3 (01:05:26):
Like this team we talked about going the year, I
felt like they were going to be hungry and they'd
have some fight in them.

Speaker 2 (01:05:30):
We saw that in Seattle game.

Speaker 3 (01:05:31):
They could have laid down and died when they were
down by double digits, and they didn't. Like I'll admit
I had, you know, Seattle in the survivor pool. I
thought for sure they were going to get the ball
back and bone Mix was going to drive the field
and just ruin our lives again. So it's like, I
can't believe I'm giving any fear to this kid who
you know, on all Temper's purposes, he did not look
great in that game, but like Chad said, when he

(01:05:52):
had to make big plays, he was able to make it.
So I like this matchup for Denver, not just offensively,
but defense will be I like they're gonna be able
to do against fields. I think they're gonna be able
to give him problems. And this Pittsburgh offensive line, we
saw it against Atlanta. They're they're banged up, they got injuries.
They really can't move the ball like they want to either.
So let's buy a low one Denver here and sell

(01:06:12):
high on this Pittsburgh team in this spot chat.

Speaker 1 (01:06:15):
You know what, I'm making it my exact decision, the.

Speaker 4 (01:06:19):
Choice between the unthinkable and the impossible?

Speaker 2 (01:06:22):
Are you your honors?

Speaker 4 (01:06:24):
Text to.

Speaker 2 (01:06:25):
Executive decision, Wow the rookie.

Speaker 1 (01:06:31):
Okay, I'm okay. I was debating between this and another game,
and no it's not the Bears game, as must be
the last game. And I think I've just convinced myself
and you've convinced me that I'm going with this as
the execut Yeah.

Speaker 2 (01:06:43):
It's definitely a good spot to take Denver.

Speaker 1 (01:06:45):
Sunday Night Football Chicago at Houston. Houston is a six
and a half point favorite. This one opened a three
and a half. It's now at six and a half.
I don't think we know what we know yet about
Caleb Williams and the Bears. You got to throw that
game away. It was just freaky in Week one. Yeah,
he did all these bad things that he used to

(01:07:06):
do in college and can't get away with that in
the NFL. The scrambling back, the throwing off his back foot.
It was just a bad game for him, and the
CJ was CJ like. The Texans were aggressive, they won
on the road and a vision against a really well
coached team. I don't really have a strong opinion here.

Speaker 2 (01:07:26):
I said it Sunday night.

Speaker 3 (01:07:27):
I would have taken Houston at minus six, minus six
and a half.

Speaker 2 (01:07:31):
I was like, Okay, this sumber will keep going up. Now.

Speaker 3 (01:07:33):
I think you're right, Chack. Now the dust is settle.
We've had time to relax.

Speaker 2 (01:07:36):
A little bit, probably overrating a little bit.

Speaker 3 (01:07:40):
On this Houston team just because the Beary's defense is
really good. But my fear of Chat is like, Okay,
if CJ's in his back and he's cooking a little bit,
this game is totally overfast. Because you just can't can't
expect no Caleb Williams to really step up in these
kind of moments. He just has so much to learn
and he is learning on the fly here. So yeah,

(01:08:03):
for us, this this makes sense of we're passing this
one just because this is a weird number. And again
everyone's gonna be teasing this with the Eagles, like this
is going to be the chrukiest Sunday Night and Monday
Night two team teaser of the season. So as wish
I want to shot on it, it already hit in
Week one. Like everyone was teasing the Lions with the
forty nine ers and they're like, well, I'm taking them

(01:08:23):
through zero and getting them at a plus number. It's like, yeah,
I would love to tell you're an idiot. You're a
winner though, So yeah, that's this one. This one will
keep it moving. We both want to take the Bears,
we know, we just we just can't do it because
we're just so terrified of the Texans.

Speaker 1 (01:08:37):
Yeah, Monday Night Football, Speaking of Atlanta, Atlanta Philly six
and a half point favorite, the Eagles are like, look.
Producer Tito showed a great clip from the Falcons game
of Kirk Cousins dropping back to throw and basically not

(01:09:00):
being able to plant office reconstructed achilles. He threw one
hopper off of one leg. We expect rust the Steelers
D line and the edge dominated a really great Falcons
offensive line. This line has moved two and a half
points towards the Eagles. Simon, and this is our second

(01:09:24):
luck side of the week. It would have been my
exac decision. Feel like we got to take the Falcons.

Speaker 3 (01:09:34):
We do, but let's wait and see. Evan will have
some numbers for us. I feel like in his career
he has not done well in these spots, Kirk coming
to Philadelphia in these prime time games. The question here
with Kirk is this man can't move. What's the ego's
only true strength on the D line. There are two
D tackles who push up the middle, Jalen Carter Jordan Davis.
That's a terrible match for them. Next week Kirk gets

(01:09:56):
the Chiefs and you know, guess who's coming up the
middle of there.

Speaker 2 (01:09:59):
You know Christians.

Speaker 3 (01:10:00):
So it's just like he's gonna get back to back
weeks of really talented D.

Speaker 2 (01:10:03):
Lions coming up the middle.

Speaker 3 (01:10:04):
So the movement here feels warrant to compare to a
lot of the other lines because people did have high expectations.
I moved him down in my own ratings and moved
him down number wise with Kirk just because he is
not the Kirk. We saw in the Vikings, right, this
is Kirk in a new offense, getting comfortable, and they're
really dealing with baby gloves. Right, everything is a little predetermined,

(01:10:25):
like if he was in shotgun and it was like
basically a guarantee he was going to drop back and pass.
If he's in you know, underneath center, he was gonna
hand it off. And it was just like they were
literally dictating exactly what they were gonna do in Pittsburgh
by the second half, just dominate him because they knew
exactly what plays they were gonna run if it was
gonna be run her pass, which is just like I
can't believe that happened at the NFL levels.

Speaker 2 (01:10:46):
It's pretty mind boggling. So Chad's right. Professional wise, it's
just like the Bears.

Speaker 3 (01:10:51):
It's like everything in my body's telling me to take
this other side, especially the six and a half.

Speaker 2 (01:10:56):
But it's like, you know, is this moved enough? Should
call this? Not be up to seven at this point.

Speaker 3 (01:11:01):
It's just I feel like we already know for a
fact the Eagles are going to put up thirty points.
Is Kirk kind of get us to twenty fours? That's
the question here. So I'm with Chad. I'll pass on
this one for now. Hopefully we come back Thursday, this
will be seven. Now I'll be able to take this
Atlanta side.

Speaker 1 (01:11:16):
Yeah. The one thing that's interesting to me about this
game versus the Steelers game, I think the Steelers are
much better on the edge than the Eagles are.

Speaker 2 (01:11:24):
Oh yeah, no doubt.

Speaker 1 (01:11:26):
I do think like the strength of the Falcons offensive line,
which is one of the best in the league, is
their right guard in their center. So if there's any
spot where they can match up well with the Eagle strengths,
it's the center of the line, which gives Bejon a
better chance to get to the edge. I agree like
it's a scary game. That's why I didn't ultimately pull
the trigy ground exact decision. But it is a luck

(01:11:48):
game if we're looking for if we're looking for reasons.

Speaker 3 (01:11:51):
And before we hop off, Chad, the Miami Dolphins are
up to minus two and a half now against the
Bills on Thursday night, So grabbed the two if.

Speaker 2 (01:11:59):
You can moving.

Speaker 1 (01:12:00):
Because we're saying it. We say it, we say it here,
it happens there. It's like broadcast news. It's like you
and I are are Albert Brooks and the rest of
the world is William Hurt. I'm referencing a movie from
the eighties. I don't care, doesn't matter. You know what.
The old heads are going to get it. They're gonna
be like I appreciate check.

Speaker 2 (01:12:18):
Here you go.

Speaker 1 (01:12:19):
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(01:12:39):
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(01:13:22):
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