Colin Cowherd Podcast Prime Cuts - Giants Are “Close”, CFB Picks, Vikings Strong Start, Sharp or Square - NFL Week 4 Bets - The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
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What time is it game Time? I want to start
with the New York Giants, because if I said there's

(01:03):
a team in the state of New York, Brian Daboles
on the offensive side, Singletary's one of the running backs,
good left tackle, serviceable o line, one, great weapon, really
strong defensive front. No, that's not the Buffalo Bills. That's
the Giants. And if you gave Josh Allen to the Giants,

(01:23):
we would talk about them in the Super Bowl bubble.
The Giants have a lot of components that Super Bowl
teams have outside of quarterback. They need to draft the
running back. They need more juice in the backfield, which
the Bills did for years until they drafted James Cook.
They had Devin Singletary, who who doesn't didn't have a
lot of breakaway speed, but for years, you know, once

(01:43):
they got Stefon Diggs, it was good defensive front, capable coach,
dable in the room, Singletary at back, good left tackle,
serviceable ole line, excellent defensive front, one great weapon. So
I don't think the Giants are hopeless. They just Brian
Dabole is coaching his butt off. I mean Daniel Jones
to night. They dominate time of possession. With no run

(02:06):
game and an average quarterback below average, they literally dominate
time of possession. Daniel Jones goes twenty nine to forty
until the very end, didn't have an interception, no touchdowns.
He's not throwing interceptions anymore. And they go against Dallas
and with no deep down the field thread, they're getting

(02:29):
the ball the neighbors. He had twelve catches, but the Giants,
with no run game and a mediocre quarterback, dominate time
of possession against Dak Prescott, pretty good quarterback, and Mike
McCarthy a Super Bowl winning coach. I think Dable is
you know he would never win like even honorable mentioned
Coach of the Year, but because their record won't be good.
But it's not like the Giants are hopeless. They're just

(02:51):
hopeless quarterback. And so that's where an owner interfered and
a general manager and a coach are doing the best
they can. But they're a little bit trap because you
know they're gonna have dead cap money if they move off.
Daniel Jones. He is serviceable now. He could certainly on
the market. Somebody would come after him. He's serviceable. He
probably wouldn't be good elsewhere because he wouldn't have neighbors

(03:14):
and he wouldn't have Dable. But there's pieces of the
Giants that super Bowl teams have really good defensively up front,
above average left tackle, great weapon, dable on the offensive side,
if they had the quarterback right So people look at
the Giants and think they're hopeless. If it was a
great cornerback class. This is a six win team, five

(03:36):
win team, you'd get one of them. It's not you.
There's a couple of guys. Even the Georgia quarterback now
with George's O line beat up, looks pretty average. Right
like against Kentucky couldn't move the ball. Quinn Ewers maybe
at number one cam Ward, I like those two shouldar standards.
Worries me a little, you know, you know, I wish

(03:57):
he would be a little more chill, but he can.
So you probably have three or four quarterbacks in the
first round. They probably have to draft one. If I
was a Giants, I would draft one because I don't
think they have a ton of needs. You can get
running backs. I was just talking to a general manager
last night. History tells you, analytics tell you the running backs.
You can get your running backs third, fourth, fifth, sixth rounds.

(04:17):
Don't draft them in the first two rounds unless you
get like a Saquan or an Adrian Peterson or a Z.
You know you don't need to, so it's you. Giants
will draft a quarterback. They considered it this year, and
you know, if the kids, you know, the offensive line
now is more than capable. But Brian Dables excellent. He's
doing a great job to dominate time of possession and
the until the end. Again, Daniel Jones didn't have an interception.

(04:41):
More than capable. I mean the guy threw for you know,
two hundred and some seventy five, two hundred eighty yards
with really no deep balls and no run game. They
just got to get the quarterback right. And again, Quinn
Ewers is an NFL quarterback, Shaner Sanders is back from
Georgia and cam mood So you're gonna have four first
round quarterbacks. I think Riley Leonard late first second. He's

(05:04):
a little wild, you know, great athlete, big size, not
great in the accuracy. Can you teach him to do that?
You know NFL people probably could. Josh Allen was wild.
People still like Anthony Richardson and he is forty nine
completion percentage. So I know you think that the Giants.
I know Jmack probably thinks all is lost with the Giants.

(05:24):
They just got to get the quarterback right, stable, left tackle, neighbors,
good defensive front. They got pieces. They got pieces the
Dallas Cowboys. Meanwhile, it was eleven penalties. Jesus, if you
took Ceede Lamb out of this team, there is nothing there.
I mean, there's just and their fullback is like a weapon,

(05:51):
you know. I like their field goalkicker. He missed one
at the end, damn it. But you know, neither of
team really had a run game tonight. I just think,
you know, again, let's talk about this, Oh, if the
New York Giants hit on a quarterback next year, Let's
say the Patriots aren't going to draft the quarterback because
they have Drake May. Carolina probably would, right Tennessee, if

(06:16):
they're bad, probably would. Although I think they figure out
a way to win four or five six games. But
a lot of the bad teams have their quarterbacks, right,
they're gonna give them a shot. So the Giants win
five games, you know, they're not going to be Dallas
five or six wins. They'll probably have the fifth, sixth pick,
and a lot of the bad teams just got their quarterback,
so they're gonna get one of these quarterbacks. I like

(06:38):
their future. I like Dable more than Mike McCarthy. I
like the Giants defensive line more than Dallas. I like
their left tackle more than Dallas. They both have good weapons. Owner,
I'll take the Giants. I guess the Giants just need
a quarterback and pick up a running back in the
fourth or fifth round. They've got a lot of components.
Dallas is kind of trapped. They're paying Fortune. They'll pay Micah,

(07:01):
who I like. I don't love a fortune. They're paying
Dak of fortune. Owner vain more about, you know, getting
attention than and being remarkably interesting and talked about more
than I think really winning titles. Despite what he says,
their offensive line is just okay, no juice in the

(07:23):
backfield average it tight end very ced Lamb and he's great,
but very Cede Lamb centric. I don't see this great future.
And they're stuck with Dak, who's good B plus, it's
like having Kirk Cousins.

Speaker 2 (07:35):
In his prime.

Speaker 1 (07:36):
It's good, be plush. We wouldn't get to the playoffs.
But if the Giants next year, let's say they have
the fourth pick in the draft, and you know, Travis
Hunter from Colorado goes number one. And let's say somebody
likes cam Ward. He goes to and the Giants move
up a spot, give up some draft picks, and they
get Quinn yours and he's good. And Brian Dable is

(07:58):
really good with quarterbacks. He's made Daniel Jones now that
he has one weapon and a more serviceable old line capable,
not special capable. So it's like, who would have the
better future if you got Quinn viewers or back and
you established pretty quickly. Guy can play little Bumpy for sure,
guy can play whose future?

Speaker 2 (08:18):
Do you like?

Speaker 1 (08:19):
Dabors stable weapons? You can get a running back every year,
just draft them. They're out there. I don't know's I
know Dallas dominates this series, and I know everybody thinks
you know, ooh Dallas Dax. You know, the star in
the helbot is very influential. But you know you're stuck
with McCarthy at least for the rest of this year.

(08:39):
Eleven penalties. He's always been penalty plagued. I mean, tonight
Mike has heard DeMarcus Lawrence banged up. I don't know,
maybe I'm being just overly negative. Laker fans feel the
same way, but this I said this to day on
FS one. You know, family owned and operated just felt
better twenty years ago. I think now you can have

(09:01):
a deli like that. But in tech, I don't want
a family owned and operated tech giant.

Speaker 2 (09:07):
You know.

Speaker 1 (09:08):
Maybe that's what Larry Ellison has with Oracle, maybe that's it.
But by and large, I like the staying kronkey of
the world. I like, you know, the Allen family in Seattle,
York family in San Francisco. I big money, something beyond

(09:29):
just the team. I don't think Dallas's future is bright.
I really don't. And it's not a shot at DAK.
I mean, God, if you put Daniel Jones on the
Cowboys and Dak on the Giants, Giants or playoff team,
absolutely Cowboys are bad, bad. I mean, you wouldn't even
have to get a great quarterback. With Dable and the

(09:52):
Giants defensive front neighbors and they're left tackle. You wouldn't
need a great quarterback. You'd need Dak. You'd be a
playoff team every year. Hell Eli Manning was in the
great regular season quarterback, but he was great, always arrived, Ohlways, healthy,
always playing two minute drill, and good in the playoffs.
Think about this, Dak is twenty four and four against

(10:13):
Washington and the New York Giants. That's not going to continue.
Davil's getting his quarterback next year. Washington has there. It
was like Big Ben for years eight on Cincinnati and Cleveland.
Then Burrow showed up, Baker showed up and didn't feel
the same. And so when you get that eight nine
year window with a big franchise a Dallas or at

(10:33):
Pittsburgh and you have the lesser halves or the have
nots in your division and you're just dominating it for
like nine years. You got to get multiple playoff wins.
You got to show up in the conference championship, you
got to show up in a super Bowl. Pittsburgh did it.
You know, Pittsburgh, Tomlin, they get to a couple of
Super Bowls. Okay, they beat in Arizona, they beat the Seattle.
They got theirs. It didn't end like you'd like in Pittsburgh,

(10:55):
but they got theirs. When Cincinnati and Cleveland were, you know,
not great have star quarterbacks. Well, Washington and New York
since Eli left have been a mess. What's Dallas having
a show for it? Twenty four to four? It's just
two and oho every year not in the show for it.
They beat the New York Giants last year by seventy
two combined points. The Cowboys did tonight. They needed a

(11:18):
guy who can kick long field goals, So I and
Dable's getting his guy in this draft. They're going to
have a top six to seven pick, and there's four
quarterbacks and Travis Hunter's going to be one of the
top guys taken. Will Johnson that corner for Michigan's going
to be one of the top guys taken. So there's
a tackle of Texas probably going to be one of
those guys taken. There's a defensive tackle for Kentucky's probably

(11:41):
going to be one of those guys taken. Giants are
getting a quarterback, maybe the second choice for Dable, but
they're getting somebody. So is that too negative? I just
I don't know. I you know, Dak has over forty
percent of his wins on the Giants and Washington. But

(12:01):
now that Jadeen Daniels is cooking and he looks like
he can't really play. Now that jade Daniels is cooking,
and the Eagles role is gonna have players with Harry Roseman,
I think I think the days of getting fat on
Washington and the Giants are over and the Giants are
gonna get into their quarterback next year. And Dable's really
good with quarterbacks. This was not Davie's quarterback. He wouldn't

(12:22):
have drafted him. He's not his guy. They didn't want
to give him the extension. Don't don't blame Dabel for this.
That's that's upstairs, that's Mara. He'll get the quarterback he
wants next year. Dabel and those quarterbacks, he'll have the influence,
he'll have the call with Joe Shane the GM. They'll
get somebody. Cam Wod can play in the NFL. Quin
youwrs can play. Schador can play a little bit too
much personality for me, but he can play and back

(12:44):
at Georgia. So that's that's four. That's four guys, and
somebody will emerge over the next six to seven weeks.
I and I know, I know it. It's easy to
beat up on teams that like the New York Giants
right now. But I see a lot of good pieces
with Dallas. I see a lot of big contracts and
one great player in cd Land.

Speaker 2 (13:04):
That's all I see.

Speaker 1 (13:05):
So I like USC to beat at home beat Wisconsin soundly.
It's a fifteen and a half point spread, so Wisconsin's
coming off the buye. But they lost their starting quarterback
for the season. Tyler Van Dyk got injured against Alabama.
He is out. This is a team that's the opposite
of Michigan. They do not run the football. They average

(13:25):
four yards a rush. And now we are with a
backup quarterback. So I mean, Luke Fickle is yet to
beat a ranked team at Wisconsin. This is a work
in progress. And so we knew that the pounding of Michigan.
We knew the defensive line of Michigan would give USC's
really talented but young o line issues. They don't present

(13:49):
any of these problems. They don't have a dominant run game.
They're good upfront, not special, and USC at home passing
offense and something to prove, did stop the run except
for about three big carries. So you say, well, Michigan
average six point three yards a carry. That's not what
they were averaging before that last big run. I think

(14:11):
USC wins in LA. They win comfortably. They get their
first big ten. W USC brings back essentially the entire
offense next year, outside of their center and a running back.
They're young but really talented. I think they blow the
Badgers out. So I think Alabama is a two point

(14:35):
underdog at home against Georgia. And I like Alabama, so
George's banged up on the offensive line. Now, they do
have forty two straight regular season wins, and Alabama got
into one of these stretches a few years ago where
they were just unbeatable in the regular season. But I
don't think George is playing particularly well. I watched Kentucky's
defensive front push the Bulldogs around for long seaquences in

(15:00):
that football game. I thought Kentucky was the more physical
team up front, and Georgia ann is banged up Alabama
Kaylin de boor this is what he did at Washington.
That offense got really good, really quickly. And right now
Bama is sixth in the country. They have an athletic quarterback,

(15:21):
Jalen Milroe, who also throws one of the prettiest deep
balls in the country, so they can run the ball,
they can throw the ball, and particularly deep. The quarterback
is athletic, so Milroll already has fourteen touchdowns this season
and in his last thirteen games against ranked opponents. I
think Kaylen de Boor is special. He's twelve and one.

(15:45):
Oregon had better players. Washington had Kaylan de Boer and
they beat him three straight times. I think Alabama as
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Speaker 1 (17:26):
Sam Darnold four touchdowns, no pick so thirty four thirty
four to seven Vikings did everything right and hammered Houston.
And I was thinking about this is that what makes
it tough for Caleb Williams is if you watch what
Matt Lafleur is doing with Malik Willis who looked like

(17:49):
he could not play the position a year ago. And
you watch what Kevin O'Connell is doing with Sam Darnald
and listen, I don't think Dan Campbell is situationally a
great coach, but he's a culture builder. We got three
coaches in that division who are really good at what
they do. Right, Like I'm watching Kevin and I look

(18:12):
at Matt Eberflus and I'm like, bro, you're not in
that class. Forget that from now. I'm watching Kevin O'Connell.
Everything Donald does, Now this is the USC version. And
I keep waiting for the bubble to burst. Accuracy, playmaking,
running deep ball and these reckless plays. Now he got

(18:33):
you know, he tried to extend a play today. Ball
gets on the carpet. But it's not just that Donald's winning, John,
He's clean the four touchdowns, no picks. And this has
been with banged up players. Like I keep waiting for
the bubble to burst. But I watched them today and
I'm like, shit, that wasn't competitive. Houston got smoked.

Speaker 4 (18:55):
Yeah, I mean that was a team that I don't
think any of us would be shocked as playing the
Chiefs in the AFC championship game, right, and that was
And listen, one thing Donald and that franchise that their
home field advantage is pretty awesome.

Speaker 1 (19:07):
Yeah, you can tell Houston he was out of sorts
to the line of scrimmage.

Speaker 4 (19:11):
The other thing that got going for him is this
guy has some serious question marks with his ability to
relate and deal with quarterbacks. But I don't think there's
any disputing that Flores is right up there with Spagnola's
the two best defensive coordinators in the NFL, non head coach, right,
like true defensive coordinator. It's just last week Kyle and
Perdy were like, we didn't even know what we were seeing,

(19:33):
and clearly Slowick and CJ were just over their head. Today,
what has happened to Sam Donald these last couple weeks,
last three weeks lead little pressure off that he plays comfortable.
Obviously they got skill guys, but as we talk on
September twenty second, we got a long way to go.
Like we're talking like an MVP candidate. I mean, if

(19:54):
you just vote today, he might win it. But I
mean this guy and back to the Bears, you go.
I don't think the Bears have any chance to not
be the fourth best team in this division with what
I'm seeing right now, because these other teams from a
coaching Lafleur's pulling like a picasso.

Speaker 1 (20:09):
It's incredible.

Speaker 4 (20:10):
I mean they dominated. He had Malik Willis looking like
a varsity guy versus Will Levis that looks like a
pee wee guy. I mean, it's just like not even
a fair fight when they just handed you Malik Willis
three weeks ago. So it's that's insane. Obviously, the Lions
are good, and what Minnesota is doing. Once you get
to like three and oh or four and one, you

(20:32):
can have a two game losing streak and still get
the ten wins pretty easily.

Speaker 2 (20:36):
You watch the Bears, they.

Speaker 4 (20:39):
Look as dysfunctional as a team I would say is
any team in the league. When you just watch them play,
you just go, this is not good. And when you
watch Minnesota pull the opposite, you go it feels crazy
to say, but like, is this an NFC contender?

Speaker 1 (20:54):
Well, it's funny. First of all, the three or four
things that we think create that great head coach got it,
quarterback playing at an elite level. Darnold is weapons. Usually there's
a great coordinator on a Super Bowl team Demiko Ryans
with the Niners. Okay, so they've got a great coordinator

(21:16):
and then usually situationally a good defensive team, there's a
pass rusher somewhere. Well, they're playing good situational defense. So
you know, it sounds crazy, but you know if they
go four and oh, you can go five hundred until
week seventeen and you're a ten and sixteen, you go
four and oh, you can scuff it. I mean, you know,
if you go back to last year, the good Kansas

(21:37):
City had a bad month November. It's like the Super
Bowl year when the Rams won it. They had they
were choppy early with Stafford.

Speaker 4 (21:46):
Remember two years ago when the Vikings they ended up
losing the Giants in the first round, but they won
the division and they had that crazy record in all
those one score games. Yeah, I think they went twelve
and five and they had like a historic record one
score games, like twelve and one. Everyone's like, this is
smoking mirrors. This team isn't that good. This team looks
completely different than that team. Yes, right, they look real.
That team look a little fraudulent.

Speaker 2 (22:08):
It is.

Speaker 4 (22:09):
I mean, Sam's by the time they get toward the
big game is gonna keep getting a lot of reps
and be really comfortable. And the other thing is your
head coach gets to really know what he's good at,
what he's not good at, you know. And when you
got that good of a defense, it is just we
talk about like a running game and a tight end
being a quarterbacks best friend. You know, what's the quarterback's
best friend when the other team can't score, right, and

(22:30):
that's what the other team can't do. They can't they
can barely move the ball past midfield. The Texans offense
has one of the best year on quarterbacks we've ever seen,
just based on record and stats. They are loaded with
skill guys and have a coach that basically everyone has
already put into a head coaching position by next year
or the next two years, in Bobby Sloak, and they
got ransacked today.

Speaker 1 (22:51):
Well, at the end of you know, not only do
the Vikings have the components of a really good team,
but I had said this when they exchanged Darnold and McCarthy,
by the way, who they drafted for Kirk Cousins, they
just lacked juice, Like they can't do anything off script,
which is always been a golf actually ran for a
first down in the game, stealing play today, which I

(23:12):
thought was kind of funny. But by and large, with
Kirk Cousins, you can win a lot of games without
a quarterback that moves. But Darnald gives them what they
were hoping. JJ McCarthy gives them. With Kevin o'caonn he
just gives you juice. Now, Stafford doesn't give you a
ton of that. But Matt is as good as Brady
pre snap and throws the prettiest ball arguably in the league.
So when you're that good Brady in the pocket pre snap,

(23:33):
Brady throws a ball like that, it allows you. And
also Brady and Stafford moved great within the pocket. They're
great between the tackles. They move constantly. But I, you know,
I just I'm just watching them, and I'm like the coach,
the coordinator, the quarterback, and Darnald. To knock on Darnal,
I always said this, there's a little Andrew Lock, a
little and a little Carson Wentz, and he became a

(23:56):
bad version of Carson Wentz, which is he's big, he's strong,
he's athletic, he's tough, but Jesus is he reckless. You
take out the reckless from Darnold, and I get the big, strong,
tough playmaker. You know, this is why people drafted him early.

Speaker 2 (24:10):
Yeah, I think last year changed his life.

Speaker 4 (24:12):
I think, you know, seeing Brock, who's not as talented him,
and he even said this, he's like watching the way
that guy prepared, and then being around Kyle, who is like,
you know, an old school nineteen eighties coach in terms
of how he wants things done. I think gave him
a whole new perspective on just his football career. And
then Kevin O'Connell came through. The Niners wanted to keep him,

(24:35):
but they couldn't pay ten million dollars. I think I
said this last week, and I don't know how I
can't say it again. If this continues and they make
the playoffs and they win a playoff game, it's not
like they traded up like some of these other teams
to get JJ. He just fell into their lap, right essentially, right,
they didn't mortgage three first round picks. Do you just

(24:55):
let him go? I mean, the everyone's like, why do
we talk? These are conversations that you you start having.
This is a real life thing. JJ's on a chief contract.
He wasn't the number one pick. He was like the
tenth or eleventh, So his contract's not crazy. Do you
extend Sam Darnald of this if you win twelve games
and he's that good with your head? Isn't the whole
point of this just to find a quarterback?

Speaker 1 (25:16):
Yeah?

Speaker 4 (25:17):
Right, So it's like you don't just let him hit
free agency and go, we'll see with JJ, because we're going,
we're going, we'll see with Caleb. And how's that going.

Speaker 1 (25:25):
By the way, you could probably get Donald for a
he's so appreciative of five. You know, Sam's made some
money in his career. You get him for a steal.
I had said before the season, let's go to Tampa
Bay Denver Klobbershm twenty six to seven, and I had
sent in the first couple of weeks, I said, listen
bo Nick's opening against Mike McDonald, the Seahawks, crowd, corners

(25:50):
and a pro and Gino Smith. That's a bad open.
Then we go next week it's the Steelers and it's like, oh,
this is a real defense. Go ask the Chargers today
today a Tampa defense that's dinged up Vitavilla at the
back end. Bon NICKX forty seven rushing yards twenty five
to thirty six, Denver blow them out. Wasn't competitive second

(26:11):
straight week. I'll say this, I'm not anti Baker. Second
straight week he was really rough on third down. He
was just not moving the chains.

Speaker 4 (26:18):
And that awful interception today on this SI Yeah.

Speaker 1 (26:21):
Baker is off. And again second straight week they couldn't
make crucial plays on third down. But when I watched
Bonex today, this is what Sean Payton kept texting me.
It's like, you know it's gonna be bumpy, but he
moves you. And I talked about this. He moves much
better than people think. I'm not he you know. It's
like Jalen Hurts isn't fast, but he's elusive. Bone Nicks

(26:44):
is not quite as elusive, but he's kind of quick,
like he can get to the corner. And I'll say
this again, they're not babying him. Remember Big Ben's first
year with Pittsburgh, he'd throw like sixteen times a game,
even to the.

Speaker 2 (26:56):
Super Bowl, like they it was like Michigan.

Speaker 1 (26:58):
Yeah, they just for protect him. Shawn's not protecting him.
He threw it like forty some times against the Steelers.
He threw thirty six times. Today, they're running an offense
that you would run with Geno Smith. They don't care.
And I said before the season, all these young quarterbacks,
Caleb Jaden, they all have defensive coaches, Drake May, Sean Peyton.

(27:20):
I think the development of what this kid is doing
is I'm watching him. He made a leap today, John,
he looked like a grown up.

Speaker 4 (27:28):
Yeah to me, when you can run the ball and
your defense plays well, Sean Payton like, he's gonna learn
what I can call and what I can't call for
this player and what he's comfortable with. And the only
way you learn that is through going through it. Like
you said, Seattle looks freaking good. Yeah, I mean, and
obviously Pittsburgh's defense is elite, but today felt like the

(27:49):
Buccaneers spent all week looking at their record and looking
at the Broncos record and we're like, yeah, we're not
really going to pay attention. We'll see on game day,
and they just got boat raced. That's the thing with
the NFL. All of a sudden, you're row in two
to zero to three. Yeah, teams who not want to
get embarrassed. Bob had that awesome play with his legs,
you don't turn the ball over. That helps because he's

(28:10):
been throwing the ball to the other team. I mean
he's had some passes that also did not get picked
that should have been. Yeah, he just looked like in
complete control. And you have to wonder mature guy, a
little older, maybe his speed up process, Like maybe we
don't have to wait till December. Maybe within three or
four weeks, he's gonna look more comfortable now. They're talent
around them. When they play the better team. I think
they play the Chiefs next week. He's gonna get overwhelmed

(28:33):
at times. Look at Sean's quotes. He had a quote
last week.

Speaker 2 (28:36):
Like I feel great about it. We're unfazed.

Speaker 4 (28:39):
That to me speaks to when you get these veteran
head coaches, like what's Eberflu's gonna be able to say?
You know, I can lean on my seven playoff appearances,
like he can't say any of that. And that's where
Sean everyone, we're gonna be okay, even though, like what
do you think best case is for them this year?
Seven eight wins?

Speaker 1 (28:58):
That's best case? Listen, I thought they would people said
they were five to five and a half. I thought
they would get eight. They don't have a consistent pass rush.
Bo is still young. They're in a tough division. The
charters and the Chiefs are really good, so you know,
their schedule is pretty damn formidable. I think if they
I think, if you get to seven, and you yeah,
if you get to seven. Because I thought they were

(29:20):
one of the better over teams. I've always said, I
think they're receivers. I think they have more talent on
the perimeter. But I think they have more talent on
the perimeter. I thought there did a running back make
a hell of a run today around the corner. He
did a I forget the name of the player, sorry
about that. I just think Denver's got a little more
juice offensively than people give him credit for. But I

(29:43):
just like and Bo had some bad throws. He had
a really he missed on a couple, But I just
I like what I see. First of all, he's older,
he's married, sixty one, starts the offensive coach pretty damn
good receivers and backs this. I think he's got an
advantage that the market isn't recognizing. Between the college starts,
the maturity body had five coordinators in five years in

(30:06):
college this kid's seen everything. I just now he may
be really close to his ceiling. John like, this may be,
you know, he may be seventy percent of the ceiling.
But I see an athletic guy who's accurate, coachable, gets
rid of the ball quickly. If they can improve their
offensive line, I think you can.

Speaker 2 (30:23):
You can.

Speaker 1 (30:23):
This is a wild card team potentially over the next
few years. We should do an award every week for
Coach of the Week. So Green Bay tags Tennessee thirty
to fourteen, crosses them. Matt Lafleur on scripted stuff. Now,
you and I know first couples, first quarters, scripted, Green

(30:45):
Bay gets seventeen points quickly. That's scripted for Malik Willis.
Malite the one hundred ninety passing, one hundred and eighty
eight rushing. The kid goes thirteen for nineteen a touchdown,
no pick, seven different targets. This is a young team.
It's not like he can rely on a veteran third
down receiver or he's got a Devonte Adams. These are

(31:07):
all kids. These are twenty three year old receivers. For
them to take Malik Willis, I'm watching today and I'm
like they had almost four hundred yards offense and on
the scripted stuff early. That's what really worries me about Chicago.
They're horrible. They're terrible on their first three serdemic. It's like,

(31:27):
that's the scripted stuff Green Bay. I mean, I'm Matt Lafleur.
You know, for years and years it was always understood
that Aaron and him kind of almost shared offensive duties.
Like Aaron's gonna do some of his own stuff, and
he'd earned that. I'm good with that. What he's done
with Malik Willis. I mean, I'll say this one year ago.

(31:48):
I mean, good God, Tennessee got rid of I mean,
they bailed on him. I mean, you almost always just
keep a guy, make him a backup. They didn't even
want to give him a shot to start. They thought
will lev Us wasn't upgrade. Matt Leffleur is a great
football coach. That's my take.

Speaker 4 (32:05):
They traded him to a team that they were playing
three weeks later. I mean that you just never know, right,
I mean, if you traded in a team that you
might have to see and they probably never even thought
twice about it, and within two if you would have
told me two weeks ago that Malik Willis looks like
everything we thought Anthony Richardson was going to look like.
That's the crazy part. I mean today he's running around.

(32:25):
He's obviously been much more accurate than I think anyone anticipated.
Give him the game ball last week he gives it
to the entire team. It really is people, you know,
Mike McDaniel is a media favorite, like he's got Schrager
loves them, and some of the guys love him, and
I get it. He's a nice guy. Might be the

(32:46):
most overrated coach in the NFL. I mean that, look
he's got is gonna wear thin when he goes five
and twelve. But Lafleur does not get discussed nearly as much.
And part of that, like you said, get a little
overwhelmed by Aaron Rodgers gone now for a while, and
he had Jordan Love through thirty three touchdowns. Jordan Love
gets hurt on a night game halfway across the world,

(33:08):
comes back and wins two games with a guy that
no other team probably would have traded for, and pretty convincingly.
I mean today they beat the shit out of him
on the road. It's one thing, okay at home playing
a bad then you go on the road and win
a game, went with a team that knows this player
like all the defensive players. Who do you think they
had been seeing for three years as a scout team quarterback.

(33:29):
And that thing was of all the games to day
and that thing truly was not close.

Speaker 2 (33:33):
It was over fast.

Speaker 4 (33:35):
And I think Lafloor, I don't want to just throw
out the elite status, cause you got to win in
the playoffs. And he did last year though, and he's
gonna beat the night Like I think Lafloor's easily one
of the best young coach. I mean the way McVeigh, Kyle,
Kevin O'Connell, we got to include Lafloor, and we gotta
kick Mike out for right now. He hasn't won an
important game ever.

Speaker 1 (34:02):
All Right, Danny Parkins has gone from the most talented
young sports talk radio show host in the country to
one of the co hosts on Breakfast Ball in FS one.
An interesting guy who's got a lot of different thoughts
and a lot of different things, and so I'm gonna
try to bring him on regular to hear on the volume.
So obviously when I bring you on, there's Chicago stories,

(34:22):
and there's you have real keen insight to Chicago, and
it's interesting because I think Caleb Williams is one of
the most talented quarterbacks I've ever seen in college. I
think there's an l way, a little Andrew Luck. He's
like Josh Allen. He's not consistently accurate out of college.
You have to work on that. With Josh Allen. Aaron

(34:44):
Rodgers was very accurate in college. Certain guys are that's
not what he is.

Speaker 2 (34:50):
He is.

Speaker 1 (34:51):
You got a sandpaper him. And when I talk about
the Bears dysfunction, you and I get it, you especially.
You tend to think of Detroit, Loserville, in Cleveland. But
because Chicago did have one of the great teams ever,
and because they had Michael Jordan and we've had Oprah
and Siskel and Ebert, and it's a big city and

(35:11):
everybody loves it, you tend to think, oh, the Bears
are well funded, the facilities are this, that's the outside.
But take the audience to the mccaskeys. The dysfunction of
this organization since you've been a kid.

Speaker 5 (35:27):
Yeah, I mean they got an indoor practice facility with
a roof that was high enough where you could hunt
a football within the last decade, like it's every other
team in the league had it. So multiple practice facilities,
like John Fox, to his credit, did kind of bring

(35:48):
them forward him and Ryan Pace of like, hey, we
need to upgrade these things. But like that's twenty seventeen
we're talking about here. So just in terms of the
investment the practice facilities, the old thing on the mc
caskey's back with the eighty five Bears was that they
would throw around, you know, nickels like manhole covers, like
it is a historically cheap organization. They are owners that

(36:11):
inherited it, right, it's a charter heritage franchise. But so
their wealth is the Bears, right, They're not an oil tycoon.
They're not real estate magnets. Their wealth is in this
valuation of a football team that they don't have hundreds
and hundreds of millions of dollars just sitting in cash
from some other business. They're not the Walmart people. And

(36:31):
so it's a big family. It's a dysfunctional family. It's
been passed down. There's like nine siblings. Some of them
have no interest in football whatsoever and want to get
out and want to cash in and liquidate. George McCaskey,
who's kind of the face of it now is self
admittedly just a fan. He's like, I know nothing about football.

(36:52):
It's like, George, you've been doing this forever, Like either
learn something about football or stop saying or stop saying
that you don't know any think about football, because then
you're like in the meetings hiring all these people. So
there's been there's countless examples of the historic dysfunction and
the cheapness with the Bears. I do think it's gotten
a lot better in the last five to ten years,

(37:15):
and the money has gotten so crazy with the national
television contracts that it's it's harder to be cheap. There
are some ways still, like they were not going to
hire Jim Harbaugh. That was never going to happen. They
were they were not going to give someone twenty million
dollars a year, fifteen million dollars a year with that
type of go and celebrity.

Speaker 2 (37:37):
They were just not prepared to do it.

Speaker 5 (37:38):
And that is a huge bummer because he wanted to
be the Bears coach, or he was at least very
intrigued by being the Bears coach for the last like
two hiring cycles.

Speaker 2 (37:47):
So it holds them back in some ways. For sure.

Speaker 5 (37:51):
Ryan Poles I think is really smart and I think
he's been a very good hire overall. I would not
have kept Matt Eberflus. I think that was a mistake
when they got the number one draft pick with Caleb Williams,
I would have lined up Caleb Williams with the best
offensive head coach you could get. Yeah, because my thing
was like, by definition, you are limiting your talent pool,

(38:13):
Like you're only able to hire coordinators for Caleb, who
then could leave to go be head coaches somewhere else
Whereas if you fire Matt Eberflus, I think Ben Johnson
leaves Detroit like that would have.

Speaker 2 (38:27):
Been pretty good.

Speaker 5 (38:28):
Like if you don't get Harbaugh Ben Johnson, he leaves
your division rival and he comes and coaches Caleb, that's
a pretty good spot to be in. So I thought
keeping Eberflus was a mistake. And where there. What I'm
afraid of right now is not Caleb Williams. I think
his talent is so undeniable that he actually will be
able to overcome some of the stink of the Bears.

(38:51):
We've seen that before, like Josh Allen to use your example.
He's had a defensive head coach and Sean McDermott. He's
had one guy who is maybe a borderline top five
receiver in Stefan Diggs. Other than that, not much in
terms of elite playmakers.

Speaker 1 (39:06):
Just got a run game, just got one this year.

Speaker 2 (39:09):
Yeah, and that's it is what I mean.

Speaker 5 (39:10):
He had Dable and Dorsey and now he's got Brady.
So he's had three different play callers, defensive head coach,
terrible drafters. Took him a couple of years, but the
talent was undeniable that he got there. So the Chargers
have changed over a bunch with Justin Herbert, bad coaches,
different play callers. He hasn't won big, but as a

(39:32):
talent has overcome it. So I think Caleb is going
to be fine. What I am worried about, though, is
when it was John Fox with Mitch Trubisky. Everyone knew
that Fox was not going to be the guy for
Mitch long term, but they didn't want to fire him
a year early and pay him to go away. So

(39:54):
it was John Fox and Dow Loggins for a year
in Mitch Trubisky. Then they fired the whole staff and
hired Matt Naggy. So now it's two systems in two years.
And that put Mitch Trubisky behind the eight ball. And
then they did the exact same thing with Justin Fields.
He was there for one year of Matt Naggy and
then they fired him and they moved on to the

(40:15):
next guy. And so that Justin Fields had two systems
in two years, two different went from Matt Naggy to
Luke Getzi. So now you're learning two different offenses, two
different play callers, two different sets of ideas and fundamentals.
And so if this doesn't work and you end up
firing Eberflus and Shane Waldron, it will be the exact
same thing that you did to your last two first

(40:39):
round pick quarterbacks, and that just I don't care who
it is, it stunts your development to not have continuity
of coaching. So I'm not worried about the talent. I
am absolutely worried about the coaching around him. And the
line is clearly regressing and even worse than it was
supposed to be. But I think a lot of that

(41:00):
is also Shane Waldron because and I'm giving you a
long answer, but you wanted all of the context yeah,
they were the second ranked rushing team in the NFL
last year. It's the four of the five offensive linemen
are the exact same and in theory they upgraded at center,
though it looks like they maybe somehow downgraded and Ryan
Bates has been hurt. But that's not all justin fields.

(41:22):
Like Huil Herbert was a five yard per carry guy. So,
like I would have told you coming into the year,
Kevin Jenkins their left guard, Nate Davis their right guard
when he plays, and Darnell Wright their right tackle, who
was the tenth overall pick. All better run blockers than
pass blockers, and they're the worst running team in the NFL.

Speaker 1 (41:42):
Yes, there's no question the O line has significantly regressed.
And most of those guys were young, ascending players, right.

Speaker 5 (41:50):
And so to me, I don't believe that these guys
just forgot how to run block. I think that there's
something in and I can't I'm not able to tell
you what it is, but I think Shane Waldron clearly
is not doing a good job. Another example, week one,
Gerald Everett out snapped Cole Kment.

Speaker 2 (42:12):
That makes no sense.

Speaker 5 (42:14):
It makes sense, It makes no Cole Commett top ten
tight end in the NFL for sure, young athletic, good blocker,
good pass catcher, coming off the best season of his career,
homegrown kid under contract in his athletic prime. That made
no sense, and they corrected it in week two, in
Week three and week three at a Monster game. But
it's like, how do I know more about the personnel

(42:36):
of the Bears than Shane Waldron does? And I get
that there's a learning curve, but come on, man, you're
a professional coach making seven figures. So I think Shane
Waldron's been a disaster through three weeks, and I hope
that he can correct it.

Speaker 1 (42:49):
I don't talk Cowboys as much, mostly because let's not
do it. Yeah, and I'm not. It does doesn't interest me.
But it is interesting that the Lakers and the Cowboys
have become sort of the same business where the brand
is way better than the product, and that they're basically
a family business. I mean, the Lakers are run by

(43:10):
Kobe's agent, and I know Kurt Rambis and like him,
but the Rambas family is involved. It is a lot
of it's a lot of people close to the Bus family,
and that's the same thing. It's Charlotte Jones it's Stephen Jones,
it's Jerry Jones. There's not a lot of outside influence,
but they're they're remarkable brands. I don't think the Lakers are.
I think Anthony Davis is just fantastic. I thought last

(43:33):
year he was easily the best defensive player in the league.
And you know, Rudy Gobert whatever. But I don't think
they're a championship team. They just don't have They're not close.
These teams like Boston have like eight really good players,
seven are the good players. But I look at the
Cowboys and it's this is what I'm about to say,
is really insane. Oh good that the if you really

(43:58):
take a deep breath, the Cowboys have not won multiple
playoff games in any year in twenty nine years.

Speaker 2 (44:08):
Now.

Speaker 1 (44:08):
Just think of that. That's not a big ask at
the NFC. The last four they've had good quarterback play.
Romo and Dak are b plus to a minus quarterback.
They're a very good quarterback play, and the Kirk Cousins mode.
They've had offensive coaches who are more than competent. I mean,
I've had some offensive coaches, and I'm always fascinated by

(44:32):
really successful people. Jerry Jones that have a blind spot
that is so obvious. The radio hits the fact that
he wants to be called GM and I'm like, Jerry,
you're this oil maverick. You're a brilliant businessman. He and
Stan Kronk are two of the smartest guys in the league.
Other owners lean on Jerry. Does he not get how disfunctional?

(44:58):
I mean they really they always the NFL in retaining
their own draft picks, And so is it ego? Is
it a blind spot Jerry's vanity and personality. I'm fascinated
when I see, like Elon Musk similarly, does he not
see what he is? Well sociopathic?

Speaker 2 (45:18):
You know, yeah, I think.

Speaker 5 (45:22):
You've probably met a lot more billionaires than I have,
you know, a lot of normal ones. It's not it's
not a you get into this like stratosphere of ego entitlement,
you literally own the building. It's just, you know, it's

(45:43):
it's just it has to warp your sense of reality
and things that make sense. But I do think that
the media sometimes gets it wrong with with Jerry. And
I'm not saying he's crazy like a fox or that
like everything is calculated, but.

Speaker 2 (46:01):
He likes it chaos is his fuel. He does not.

Speaker 5 (46:08):
Believe that us talking about Ceedee Lamb's contract and Dak
Prescott's contract and Mike McCarthy's contract and his radio appearances
and weird things that he says. He does not believe
that that has any impact on wins and losses. He
doesn't and in fact, he probably thinks that it has

(46:31):
an absolute impact on the ratings that they get on
Sunday Night Football and at four twenty five on Sunday
on Fox. And he very well might be right, because
they are Everyone cares about him. You might hate him,
you might love him, but the numbers bear out people
care about him. So I think that he is feeding

(46:52):
the sports take industrial complex because it's oxygen for him.
He wants to be relevant, he wants to be talked about.
It's clearly an ego play, but also it programs a
lot of airtime and that has to be good for business.
I guarantee he subscribes to the all publicity is good

(47:13):
publicity mantra. We're talking about him and that's making him money,
either directly or indirectly. So that's what And by the way,
I also think, and I said this on the first
week of breakfast Ball because we were on before the
season started. I was like, these contracts all get done,
no one holds out anymore? Like they not really, Yeah,

(47:35):
Jonathan Taylor for a game, Melvin Gordon for four games,
Chris Jones for a game, like host Levy on Bell.
No one actually holds out. You're like, Oh, they should
have signed Dak Prescott early. Dak didn't want to sign early.
Dak wanted to go to sign first. He wanted Jordan

(47:56):
Love to sign first because that just gave him more money.
Me Ceedee Lamb wanted aj Brown to sign first. He
wanted Devonte Smith to sign first. He wanted Justin Jefferson
to sign first, because they know that they have the
Cowboys over a barrel, because Dak had a no tag
clause and a no trade clause and Ceedee Lamb got

(48:18):
one hundred and eighty targets last year. If Ceedee Lamb
isn't on the Cowboys, they would go from the highest
scoring team in the league to awful. He matters more
to Dallas than any non quarterback, matters to their offense,
more than Christian McCaffrey, more than Tyreek Hill. Like I

(48:39):
just I think chaos is part of the formula to
the popularity in Dallas, and I think it's all by design.

Speaker 1 (48:46):
So I played a game today with Jamak on the
air and we were talking about Deshaun Watson, and I said,
Deshaun Watson has is considered a star. But if you
had a minute thirty left in a game, one time
out and had to go seventy yards doable same players,

(49:10):
would you take Gardner Minshew or Deshaun Watson to be
your quarterback? And I said I'd take Gardner Minshew because
he moves about as well as Deshaun. He plays with
more confidence, and I think he's more accurate. And he's like, no,
that's crazy. And so we got into talking about this
and I said, Jaden Daniels or Trevor Lawrence. And I said,
here's what I know about Jaden Daniels. He moves better

(49:32):
than Trevor. He appears to be more accurate than Trevor.
And I like, I love Trevor Lawrence, but I have
seen him now that Buffalo game, which was at least
the first half a standalone game. Dude, he missed the
crossing route that is a any college quarterback can make
it effortlessly. He missed a pass in the flat that

(49:54):
he was low and behind him, and I said he's
too loose. I said, he looks like a quarterback. But
if you said, hey, you want to go golf Friday
afternoon or watch more film, he choose golf. He's too
talented to be that loose and bad on the layups.

(50:17):
It's not mechanical because he was great in high school,
he was great in college, and he was he's shown signs. Yes,
you put Trevor Lawrence down there right now, minute thirty
in a game, I would take Kirk Cousins over him.
I think i'd take Gardner Minshew over I'm not joking
on Trevor Lawrence.

Speaker 5 (50:35):
No, I think that it is totally fair. I do
think that you can lose your mechanics. He brought up clear,
he brought up you brought up golf right like golfers. Yeah, yeah,
any any golfer will tell you that you can lose
your mechanics, you can lose your swing. So I do
think it is in play that Trevor Lawrence is I mean, hell,

(50:55):
Mahomes said it this week that he doesn't think that
he his mechanics are completely locked in that he's relying
too much on his arm and he's not seat right
now with his feet and his footwork. So I do
think that when you have an arm like Trevor Lawrence,
which is a top ten arm in the NFL, it
makes it possible that you you lose your fundamentals a

(51:16):
little bit more. And so I don't think they're gonna
bench him like Thug Peterson was like anything's on the table, Like,
I don't think it is, Like I don't think you're
benching a two hundred and fifty million dollar quarterback. But
I do think that you need to be working on
footwork fundamentals and breaking him down a little bit. Deshaun
Watson in Week one looked like he forgot how to

(51:38):
play football.

Speaker 2 (51:40):
We charted it.

Speaker 5 (51:41):
He had six passes that landed out of bounce, like
they're just like straight not catchable balls. And then that's
not including airmailing guys throwing it at their feet, hurtling up.
So I think he's regressed. I mean, he's been a
little bit better since, but he's regressed terribly. Trevor Lawrence

(52:02):
has regressed terribly, and Minshew, it's just funny you bring
him up. What I've always said about him is like
he's gonna go down swinging, like he's a fun quarterback
to watch, yes, oh, and like but like delusional confidence,
like he will he believes he can make every throw. Uh.
It's like Mario Chalmers when he was on the heat

(52:23):
and he had teammates that were Lebron, Bosh and Wade,
and he was like, why don't you ever drop up
the final play for me? And it's like, it's like
I had a pretty big shot at Kansas in the
final four. It's like, yeah, buddy, but that's Dwayne Wade,
you know what I mean, Like your Gardner Minshew, why
do you think you can make that throw? Uh? But
like one out of two or three times he can
make it, and so he does it. So he's a

(52:44):
fun guy to watch. But I will say too, man,
it's hard. Quarterback play in the NFL is very clearly hard.
It's hard to project, it's hard to pay, it's hard
to be consent and in and so that's also why
and this isn't what you asked about, but I'm gonna

(53:04):
say it anyway. Everyone being surprised by Josh Allen. It
bothers me. He is clearly the second best quarterback in football,
and he has been for a couple of years now. Yeah, yards, touchdowns, wins.

(53:24):
Since twenty twenty, he's second in wins, He's second in yards,
and he's first in touchdowns.

Speaker 2 (53:33):
All the Mahomes, you look at their numbers. Now, it's
regular season.

Speaker 5 (53:38):
Mahomes obviously has him in the postseason undeniable, but yards, touchdowns, wins,
he's two to two and one in terms of ranks
since twenty twenty. And he doesn't have Andy Reid, he
didn't have Tyreek Hill, he didn't have Travis Kelcey.

Speaker 2 (53:55):
He is a remarkable football player.

Speaker 5 (53:59):
And so be like, I'm so surprised that Josh Allen
is doing this this year. Why because he lost Gabe
Davis and Stefan Diggs, who like wit the last seven
games of last season.

Speaker 2 (54:11):
Like it's just we need to do a better job.

Speaker 5 (54:15):
I think of, like, oh, you're not Mahomes, so we
can like pick you apart and criticize you. I'm not
saying no criticism is fair. Mahomes has thrown three terrible
interceptions this year for total, Like, obviously anybody can be criticized,
but like, if you've got a problem with Josh Allen
at quarterback. Then the only guy you're allowed to like
is Mahomes.

Speaker 2 (54:37):
He's the only one.

Speaker 5 (54:38):
It's a really hard position to be consistently great at.

Speaker 1 (54:48):
All. Right time for an utter edition of Sharper Square.
Chad Millman, CEO Action Network. All of our odds provided
by DraftKings. All Right, this is an interesting week. So
I usually feel first cup of weeks, I'm kind of
feeling it out. I never used to feel that way,
but because nobody plays anybody in preseason, fewer padded practices,
I kind of feel like the Jets in Week one

(55:10):
offensively or awful. Then all of a sudden you watch
them and you're like, wow, they lead the NFL in
third down percentage. Like stuff happens fast because either Sean McVay,
fewer padded practices. I'm not going to play any starters,
but I do feel like I have. I kind of
feel like I have. I got my feet beneath me
on the league. But this is an instructive moment, and

(55:32):
I'll tell you I want to start with this because
I part of why I like doing Sharper Square. I
like teaching myself stuff and the audience. So I really
liked the Jets early in the week at minus six
and a half. I think it's a bad spot for
a rookie quarterback traveling going back, I get a veteran
extra rest. This is a bad spot for bow Nicks.

(55:53):
I thought Tampa I picked them in that week it
was a good spot. And with rookie quarterbacks, it's a
lot of where you land and how the schedule looks.
Same with rookie coaches. New England on a Thursday night,
bad spot off an overtime game. So I liked the
Jets a lot. And now it's seven and a half.
And I don't bet teams. I bet numbers in this league.
So now I like Denver and just because of a

(56:16):
point swing. So just as a point of instruction, how
do the wise guys view that game?

Speaker 6 (56:23):
Well, they're going to bet Denver at seven and a half,
and that's sort of what they've been waiting for. What
you're doing, naturally, because you've been watching football and thinking
about this for a long time, is looking at the
number seven. It's a key number, right, and the key
numbers mean that's the number, that's the delta between the

(56:47):
two scores. That a lot of games land on in
the NFL seven four three two with the extra point
changes the past couple of years, those are now the
key num and those are the ones that wise guys
want to get on the right side of. So you
liked New York at six and a half because it

(57:08):
was on the right side of that key number of seven.
You like Denver on the seven and a half because
now you're on the right side of seven for Denver.
So that is the delta, by the way, and that
is the very very thin line between success and failure.
We're talking about half a point in your logic, but

(57:30):
that is the difference between winning and losing in so
many of these games.

Speaker 1 (57:35):
So another point. I'm going to reflect on this because
this week I don't have as strong as a conviction
on games. But I'm fascinated by why a number is
so about. Once a week there is a number I
don't understand. Last week it was Seattle in Miami. I
had a winning week. I didn't get the number Skyler
Thompson against Mike McDonald's defense. That felt like a blowout
to me. It's a hard place to play for TUA.

(57:57):
Miami doesn't play well West or North usually They're just
a different team. So the Steelers minus one and a
half going to be four to zero, best defense arguably
in the league against a quarterback who is in a
t bow level forty nine percent completion percentage. I talked
to one executive this week. He said his tapes as
bad as a thrower as anybody he remembers. So I

(58:19):
look at it and I think that number doesn't make sense.
It should be Steelers minus two to two and a
half to three. I would take Pittsburgh, but the market's
confusing me. Explain the line.

Speaker 6 (58:29):
The market is confusing you because the Steelers are undefeated.
They opened as two point favorites, and the line has
moved in the direction of the Indianapolis cults. And what's more,
what you can see in a lot of places, and
most operators offer those DraftKings does as well. You can

(58:50):
usually see the betting tickets and the betting money tickets
means that the squares are coming in on a side.
Money means that the professionals are coming in. And aside,
the delta on this game is squares on the Steelers,
money on the professionals. The line usually moves, I mean

(59:11):
money on the Colts professionals on the Colts. The line
usually moves in the direction of the money. That tells
you that what the professionals are doing. The reason that's
happening in this game is because a Mike Tomlin is
historically great as a road underdog and historically bad as
a road favorite. They are also not believing in Justin

(59:36):
fields right now. They love the Steelers defense. They know
if the Steelers get up that TJ. Watt is going
to slam the door closed, and that's when he's amazing.
But it's not like they're dominating teams. And if you
even look at that Chargers game, it's ten to ten
with a one legged Justin Herbert and it doesn't become

(59:56):
a Steelers win until Justin Herbert is out of the game.
Now they're going on the road in a game that
should probably be pick based on the talent levels, and
the strength of the Colts is not going to be
Anthony Richardson throwing or trying to evade TJ.

Speaker 2 (01:00:14):
Watt.

Speaker 6 (01:00:15):
It's going to be what this offensive line, which is
one of the top rated run blocking and top rated
pass blocking lines in the league, can do to get
Jonathan Taylor free in the open field. So that's why
the wise guys like this matchup. They're getting a home
underdog and an overvalued favorite.

Speaker 1 (01:00:32):
Okay, let's get into my picks this line. Initially I
felt like Chicago was to play. It's now up to
plus three. It's a coach quarterback league. It wasn't. The
Rams won this game basically on special teams. But now
they have both their tackles back. The interior offensive line
is now played together for three games, so have these receivers.

(01:00:55):
So the Niners were missing elements. But I don't try
Steeber Flues or Shane Waldron. I'm not giving up a
field goal to just a winning culture, the one that's
trying to find their way. Bears are getting better. But
I'll play the number Rams plus three Sharper square.

Speaker 6 (01:01:13):
Yeah, at three, it's sort of in the middle. We
just talked about key numbers. If this game gets up
to three and a half, the wise guys will play
the Rams. But it opened at one, and the wise
guys played the one, the one and a half, the two,
the two and a half, and now it's at three.
And their logic here is very much by low Sell

(01:01:35):
high right, you just talked about last week. With four
minutes and fifty seven seconds left in that game against
the Niners, the Rams had a five percent chance to
win that game. They needed every single thing to go
right in that game, and it did. The Niners could
not advance the ball deeper into the Rams side of

(01:01:56):
the field. They missed a fifty five yard field goals
scored in three straight plays. The play the next series,
the forty nine Ers can't advance the ball, They punt.
The Rams get a great punt return, They get three
penalties on one play, including a twenty eight yard pass interference.
They win the game. The Bears, meanwhile, couldn't have played worse.

(01:02:18):
Caleb Williams was confusing Colts defenders for Bears receivers. They
were truly terrible. They had no running game. Right twenty
five seconds left in the third quarter, they're still down
seven to three. When the Colts score a touchdown to
go fourteen to three, five minutes left in that game,
they're still down fourteen to nine. They had a chance

(01:02:38):
to keep winning that game. Their pass rush is elite,
their defense is getting better and better. You have to
assume in this game that the Bears are not as
bad as they were which is what the wise guys think,
and the Rams cannot replicate that kind of luck no
matter who's back on the field. All that said, your

(01:03:01):
about Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford versus Ebra Flus and
Caleb Williams is the one reason I've talked about this
game all week. It is the one reason why I
have heard wise guys saying I'm kind of hesitating. Those
who are in are in, but those who are hesitating
or hesitating because of that exact reason.

Speaker 1 (01:03:20):
All right, I'm going to take the Packers minus two
and a half at home against the Vikings. The Vikings
are playing really well, but they've always been a little
better at home than on the road. Also, green Bay
is winning without Jordan Love. The team is gaining confidence.
Jordan Love is a massive step up. I also think
Green Bay this year, for the first time in recent memory,

(01:03:42):
is kind of a ball hawking defense that's creating turnovers.
Sam Darnold historically will give you opportunities. So at minus
two and a half, green Bay at home, I don't
think people quite understand the coaching job. Winning with Malik
Willis and looking good with Malik Willis, these aren't Luke Wins,
I would swallow the two and a half take Green

(01:04:02):
Bay sharper square.

Speaker 6 (01:04:03):
Yeah, this is a really tricky one because there is
just universal split on this one. Wow, it went to two,
It was at two, it got up to two and
a half, it got up to three. The wise guys
took the three bet it down to two and a half.
You'll see it bouncing around back and forth. Everybody has
an opinion on this game, and they are very strongly

(01:04:24):
on Minnesota, very strongly on Green Bay. I can't give
you a definitive answer. You could be right. Wise guys
could be right. What's interesting in this game?

Speaker 1 (01:04:33):
I agree with you.

Speaker 6 (01:04:35):
Matt Lafleur has been a genius in this scenario, and
you have to credit what he has done with Milik Willis.
You also have to credit Kevin O'Connell what he has
done with Sam Donold to make him look like an
MVP worthy quarterback to get his team undefeated. You have
to credit Brian Flores, whose team is number one defensively
in Dboa and make Brock Purdy and CJ. Shroud look

(01:04:59):
mediocre to bad in two upsets for this team against
quarterbacks who are really good against the blitz. Then there's
one stat that keeps sticking in my craw teams that
are short home favorites in divisional games against the spread
since twenty sixteen. So I am completely torn on this game.

(01:05:25):
I lean Minnesota. I'm hoping it gets back to three.

Speaker 1 (01:05:30):
I like Seattle plus three and a half at the Lions.
Lions are missing their top center, Byron Murphy, the really
really good defensive tackle number one pick for the Seahawks,
has elevated a defensive front. I think one of the
things about Seattle. I think they're one of the best
coach teams in the league right now. On the defensive side.
I don't quite feel like they finally figured out their

(01:05:52):
offense last week with Detroit. Thirty five carries Montgomery and Gibbs,
but you're not going to run like that on Seattle.
See Adele has big playmakers. Detroit's Ohwa was susceptible if
you can block Hudgson. Detroit's olways susceptible. The big plays.
Three and a half's too big of a number. Gino
complete seventy four percent of his throats. This is a
highly competent offense efficient component and occasionally explosive. I don't

(01:06:16):
trust the Lions here, Sharper square.

Speaker 6 (01:06:19):
Yeah, whyse guys still like the Seahawks here. If you
can get the hook, that's what they're planning. The line
has moved in their direction, even though it's Detroit at
home inside when they are historically great against the spread.
It went from four and a half down to four.
Now it's at three and a half. All the things
you said, there is some sort of hesitation because who

(01:06:41):
of the Seahawks really beaten right?

Speaker 5 (01:06:44):
Right?

Speaker 6 (01:06:44):
Like they beat up Skyler Thompson and Tim Boyle, they
beat up Jacoby Brissett, and by the way, the pass
played tough in that game, and if you look at
the spread, it was a push. They beat up bo
Nicks in his first game, and by the way, the
Broncos came back at the end of that game and
it was a push. So I'm not fully bought in

(01:07:05):
on the Seahawks. They have been one of those teams
professional betters have lid since before the season began. The
number play is the Seahawks, but it's not like a
slam dumb for me.

Speaker 1 (01:07:18):
And finally, there are games sometimes I just like to
watch Bills getting two and a half the Ravens bills
in a short week. I said this, the Ravens are
a toe away from just having one really bad loss
and crushing Dallas and beating the Chiefs. I like Baltimore.

(01:07:45):
They had to replace a coordinator and some offensive linemen.
I think that stuff, especially on the O line, takes time.
I think the Ravens cover here sharper.

Speaker 6 (01:07:55):
Square totally sharp wise. Guys are on the Ravens. That's
the play. It's scary, right you're going to betting against
Josh Allen, who is wicked right now and is now
the odds on favorite to win the MVP after what
he did to the Jags on Monday Night. I mean,
he was fierce right, his passes were pinpoint. He was

(01:08:17):
running through the middle of that Jaguars line. But I
do think that the value is on Lamar Jackson, who's
twenty one and seven, as a short favorite or an underdog.
It's a really good spot for the Ravens. Their defensive
back line against the rush, they're getting a little bit better.

(01:08:39):
I think the big fear is like, what are they
going to do when Josh Allen is scrambling and improvising.
They haven't proven to be able to really defend against
that right now. We saw the Cowboys come back, but
Ravens are definitely the right side the volume.

Speaker 1 (01:08:56):
Thanks so much for listening. If you've enjoyed the podcast,
take a moment rate and review

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Colin Cowherd Podcast Prime Cuts - Giants Are “Close”, CFB Picks, Vikings Strong Start, Sharp or Square - NFL Week 4 Bets

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