October 20, 2024 • 45 mins
As the Kansas City Chiefs stay undefeated in San Francisco, Action Network NFL betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter once again join forces to discuss all things betting for NFL Week 7. Together they talk about Cleveland's failures, a rousing Lions victory, Gardner Minshew keeping things close and so much more. We get a recap of all their weekly picks, good and bad, as they take accountability before Sunday Night Football kicks off in Steel City between the New York Jets and Pittsburgh Steelers. Plus, we get their early looks at NFL Week 8.
And for new listeners, The Favorites $100K Pro Football Pick 'Em Contest is underway! Presented by bet365, this totally free-to-play contest has over $100,000 in cash prizes up for grabs to our listeners this NFL season. Just visit Favorites.ActionNetwork.com to sign up for free and make your picks today. #Volume #Herd
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network,
Live from our Tommy John Holmes Studios. I am Chad
Mellman of the Action Network. This is our Sunday night episode.
We will review the faves five picks we put into
the contest di sect, why we left some games out, fascinating,
(00:32):
fascinating conversations Simon and I had in the noon hour
before we finalized our picks. We're gonna preview the lines
we like for week eight. I'm joined as always by
the mentioned co host companion Campadre BFF Professional Better Simed
Hunter Ella Simed. Hello, Chad, dude, a fascinating, fascinating day.
(00:57):
We're gonna break it down. But before the early games,
there was a run on betting the Niners. When they
were favored by one and a half, it got up
to two. It got up to two and a half
at a lot of books. The number also moved in
the contest right, So for anybody listening, you can make
contest picks anytime during the week, but if you decide
(01:19):
to make a change, you got to change all your numbers.
Speaker 2 (01:22):
I have been hesitating on.
Speaker 1 (01:23):
The Chiefs from a math perspective and a team health perspective.
To me, it just didn't make sense to bet them
at less than the key number of two. Simon didn't care.
Simon was headstrong that betting against Patrick Mahomes in this spot.
It doesn't matter what anything says in the box score
or what any injuries are existing for the team. You
(01:47):
just bet Patrick Mahomes is a dog or a short favorite.
So on Sunday morning, we did something.
Speaker 2 (01:51):
We never do.
Speaker 1 (01:52):
We made a flurry of last second changes to our picks,
all in service of getting the Chiefs at plus two
and a half half. How did it impact us? Let's
find out. And by the way, if you believe you
could beat our picks this season, be our guest. Let
us pay you forty thousand dollars. Sign up at Favorites
dot actionnetwork dot com catch every episode of The Favorites
(02:15):
live on YouTube. For those enjoying on YouTube, don't forget
to give us a like and subscribe to the Action
Network YouTube page. Reminder, The Favorites podcast is presented by
Bet three sixty five and now new BET three sixty
five Customers get two hundred dollars in bonus bets. When
you bet five dollars, sign up using promo code favorites,
(02:35):
deposit ten dollars, place a bet for five dollars to
get two hundred dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus bets
can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more,
whatever the moment.
Speaker 2 (02:48):
It's never ordinary.
Speaker 1 (02:49):
At bet three sixty five, must be twenty one or
older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina,
New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, we're eighteen and older. In Kentucky,
gambling problem call one eight hundred gambler or one eight
hundred bets off. In Iowa terms, conditions restrictions apply, all right.
So when we decided we wanted to get the Chiefs
(03:11):
in at plus two and a half, we had to
go with all the updated lines. As I mentioned before,
at that point, the Packers, who we had been leaning
towards all week, we're now at three and a half,
not the two and a half that we had lucked in.
We took out the packers. Great trade. Better to get
the number on the Chiefs. So and we will get
(03:34):
to this, so don't say anything yet, Simon, because my
bff here loved, loved, loved the Giants. He wanted them
in so bad he tried to get me to take them.
Unconvinced me. All week long. I had been saying, I
don't trust this team. I don't trust the team. Without
Andrew Thomas, zero packed protection, they can't score at home.
(03:56):
Simon insisted we will discuss. He will defend in a moment.
Here's a crazy stat from Evan that he gave on
convince me this morning. Catch it live on YouTube and
in the Action Network app. Heading into today, overall road
teams sixty one percent against the spread this season, second
(04:19):
best win percentage through seven weeks in the Wildcard era.
That's since nineteen ninety. Today, road teams against the spread
seven and three. Also, road favorites are undefeated since week
five fifteen and oh, road faves.
Speaker 2 (04:41):
Since week five.
Speaker 1 (04:42):
That is insane. Today they went to and oh about
the Bengals and the Eagles covered as road faves. We
of course, were on the other side of both of
those games. Let's start with Cincinnati and Cleveland. One of
those games. You know, Look, the way it started was
exactly as we expected it to start. Simon like wighs
(05:03):
good and bad. You know, the Bengals run the opening
kickback for a touchdown. The Browns defense was awesome. They
were in the Bengals backfield. They were stopping Joe Burrow
on third down, stopping on the run. The Bengals could
not score. The only thing was, of course, the missed
(05:23):
field goal by the Browns. As soon as that happened,
we knew it was terrible.
Speaker 2 (05:30):
But then the Browns are driving.
Speaker 1 (05:34):
Deshaun Watson doesn't look terrible, drops back, moves forward, ruptures
his achilles and I don't know if you saw this,
but watching it on slow motion, I've never seen what
the injury looks like. And they had the perfect angle
where the bot his heel just dropped like he steps.
(05:55):
You see it snap. You see the heel drop when
it should not be dropping.
Speaker 2 (05:59):
It was.
Speaker 1 (06:00):
It was disconcerting and uncomfortable. I don't know what you
were thinking.
Speaker 3 (06:03):
Then it's the worst. It makes my skin crawl even
here and you talk about it. Yeah, it's one of
my biggest fears. I'm one of those people where it's
like every time my leg's a little tight, I'm like,
oh my god, that is tearing my achilles. So now
you're right that that was probably his best drive of
the season. Honestly, that's how bad he's been. He was
making good throws driving down the field, and yeah, got
(06:24):
bit by the injury bug.
Speaker 2 (06:26):
It was. And I felt like we had a little
bit of a shot.
Speaker 1 (06:32):
In that game because I thought they were playing really
well and their defense was lights out. It was I mean,
I'm i it was a super bummer. And then Dorian
Thompson Robinson comes in, makes a good sort of throw
to the outside shoulder of the receiver, gets the call
(06:53):
for pass interference.
Speaker 2 (06:55):
They're on the one.
Speaker 1 (06:56):
Of course, like they get called for a legal formation
or whatever, so they back it up, but they still
go for it, and then they missed the extra point.
Speaker 3 (07:07):
Yeah, and just we talked about before the show, when
he missed that fieldgal in the first half and they
get a kick return, you're already down ten now with
a dog Usually it's really tough to come back from that.
And you know, I don't know what happened, but they
made Jameis Winston their third quarterback and end up coming
at end of the game actually giving us a chance
(07:28):
at giving the back door still thank you, Jamis. But yeah,
just it's bad, like we're having this bad luck on
these home dogs. Things are just that's why you take
these dogs. So you have stupid bounces in football, and
they usually bounce the way of the dog, I mean
historically long term. Like I said, that's why you want
to make these bets. So the reason I want to
(07:49):
take Cleveland the same reason I want to take the Giants.
It's like, at worst I thought we would go one
on one. I thought we had a really good chance
of going to and out where it's like I like
these spots. We're getting good point value. Both these teams
coming in are a little bit overrated and a little
shakey offensively, and both teams are boom and busts. And
we saw that, like the Eagles had a couple of
big boom plays that worked out from same with Cincinnati. Right,
(08:10):
Cincinnati's offense, like you said, they didn't do much. Brown's
defense did pretty good. And you know, I was filing
pretty good going to half, even though we had lost Watson.
It was seven to six, like they just got to
keep this in arm's length and he had fortunately a
couple of bad turnovers. You know, twenty one to six
that Brown's bet was dead.
Speaker 1 (08:30):
Yeah, there was a key play. I think the Browns
were in field goal range, had a fourth and one,
and I said to my kid sitting next to me
on the couch, you got to run the RPO like
Dorian Thompson. Robinson had been having his way with running
the ball in that game. Why they drop him back?
(08:52):
Why they don't give him the option to run? He's
so fast. The Bengals still had not been able to
really adjust for or a different kind of quarterback in
the game. You gotta go one freaking yard and you
got Nick chub like, let him make the play at
the point of contact with the running back.
Speaker 2 (09:12):
You you're with me right like? It didn't make it
any Like. I'm an idiot.
Speaker 1 (09:18):
I don't know anything about football, and I knew that
the most common play right now, that every running quarterback,
that every athletic quarterback, that even non athletic quarterbacks run,
is an r PO. And Kevin Stefanski, who I love,
does not call an RPO.
Speaker 2 (09:36):
That's you. You deserve what you get in that spot.
Speaker 3 (09:39):
That's how I view it.
Speaker 2 (09:42):
Good.
Speaker 1 (09:42):
I'm glad we agree mentioned the Giants. You insisted we
had the Giants plus three and a half. Yeah, all
week you tried to tempt me.
Speaker 2 (09:51):
You didn't. Bully, Definitely I.
Speaker 3 (09:54):
Got you, though, I eventually got you come around the under.
Speaker 1 (09:57):
But you did and and I appreciate that. I mean,
this game was dreadful to start, like, just sacks on
every single both.
Speaker 3 (10:04):
Sides are just That's why I thought it was going
to be just an ugly, sloppy like game. But the
Giants quickly learned. The difference of the game was the
guy that got rid of Barkley. He was a game changer, right.
I think he had one hundred and sixty yards rushing.
Speaker 2 (10:17):
More than that?
Speaker 3 (10:18):
Did he really look it up?
Speaker 2 (10:19):
Right now?
Speaker 1 (10:20):
He had more than that? I think he said a record.
He's already the leading rusher in the history of the Meadowlands.
I think he had like one hundred and seventy five
yards rushing.
Speaker 3 (10:30):
Yeah, I mean it was a bad bet. And like again,
it's a game where the things when we need to
bounce our way just didn't. I think it was a
fourth and three, you know, Hurts throws a bomb. Aj
Browns was a touchdown on a fourth down, you know.
Daniel Jones finally puts a good drive together, they score
a touchdown, his first touchdown in six hundred days passing
(10:53):
in the meadowlands. They call it back on offensive pass interference.
It was just, yeah, the little thing that we need
to go ourway to not and yeah, I'm just getting
burned right now in these home divisional dogs, like I
love taking home dogs, and man, it is not coming around.
Speaker 1 (11:11):
Saquon Barkley had one hundred and seventy six yards rushing,
and you the Giants' defense has been playing lights out.
And before the season, we all sort of thought that
the coverage unit for the Giants was going to be terrible.
They haven't been. We didn't know what the pass rush
(11:32):
is going to be. They've been amazing, leading the league
in sacks.
Speaker 2 (11:36):
Yeah, and I.
Speaker 1 (11:38):
Feel terrible for this Giants defensive unit because they are
playing lights out. They really are. They're playing amazing. They
are getting less than help from their office. They're getting
negative help. They're getting the opposite of help. They're getting
like the defense is actually made. The offense is making
it much much harder for them, right, and at some
(12:01):
point they're gonna break, Like they they barely gave up
the big plays in the first half, there were two
of them to Saque and then like you meant mentioned
the fourth and three from Jalen Hurst to AJ Brown,
Like they're not going to be perfect, but the Giants
offense is terrible, can't do anything. It's so it's so frustrating, dude,
(12:22):
it's so frustrating. At one point in the middle of
the second quarter, the Giants had been sacked four times
and they had four touchdowns, I mean four first downs,
four first downs, not touchdowns.
Speaker 3 (12:35):
Right right right, Yeah, again, it's it's a bad read,
but this is this is life betting ugly dogs. So
it's like, I agree with everything you said, but it's
just it's just brutal where we can't catch breaks right
now in these ugly dogs and it's like the only
thing hitting for us is chalk, Like we're vetting. You know,
normally I wouldn't loved that Lions line, but we just
(12:57):
kept talking about something was off with that line. So
it's just, you know, another week of the bets that
we usually win we lose, and the chalky bets we
make that we usually are a little scared to even make.
They're no brain or hitters right now, Like it's just
chalk is king and we kind of need to adjust
to it. So yeah, hopefully that ends with the Bucks
on Monday night.
Speaker 1 (13:19):
Evan, if you could look this up real fast, I'd
love to know and just throw it in the chat.
How is the public doing this week? We know they
crushed last week, Simon and I won with the public.
We're winning today again with the public. Detroit was a
public side, The Chiefs were a public side, The Bills
(13:40):
were a public side. I think those were three of
the bigger public sides this week. But I'd love to know, like,
are we headed for another regression? Is it two weeks
in a row that were sort of The public is
cashing on a regular basis, much more than they had
been in the past.
Speaker 2 (13:58):
Remember the first five.
Speaker 1 (14:00):
Weeks of the year, the public had been doing historically bad,
so obviously there was going to be some regression, But
how much is too much at this point? Just to
close the book on the Giants, Daniel Jones threw for
ninety nine yards, which is less than four point seven
yards per attempt. They had one hundred and nineteen total
(14:23):
yards in the game, and they were sacked eight times
and Daniel Jones was pulled for Drew freaking lock. You
know it's a lock that your bet has lost when
Drew Locke enters the chap. Imagine being John Marra, the
(14:48):
owner of the Giants and the GM for the Giants,
knowing that the story of the summer was them on.
Speaker 2 (14:59):
Whatever that's show is called that I can't remember, Hard Knocks,
Hard Knocks, and the.
Speaker 1 (15:04):
Whole first couple episodes are about keeping Saquon, letting him go,
and the owner being like.
Speaker 2 (15:11):
He's the most popular player.
Speaker 1 (15:13):
I'm gonna be really disappointed if he's in the division,
in the division, one hundred and seventy six touchdowns, domination
station makes.
Speaker 2 (15:24):
The Eagles look healthy.
Speaker 3 (15:25):
No, he's incredible.
Speaker 1 (15:27):
Detroit plus one and a half at Minnesota, we had
it and this one was going so well for us
and for me, like we were all in on Detroit,
never waivered.
Speaker 3 (15:36):
That's the way to win.
Speaker 2 (15:37):
Man.
Speaker 3 (15:37):
Now you're figuring it out. Now we're figuring it out.
That's outstanding, gentlemen.
Speaker 1 (15:42):
Oh, I was on the over, never even close to
not covering. I was on Jared goff over twenty three
and a half completions. Crunner had given it out at
twenty two and a half. I barely missed the best
of the number and look, after a sluggish start, I
thrilled because the Lions they came roaring back.
Speaker 3 (16:09):
It has been years since the Detroit crowd has been
this excited about the Lions. Talk about restoring the roar.
Speaker 1 (16:17):
Listen to him.
Speaker 2 (16:19):
They were up twenty one to ten and a half.
Speaker 1 (16:21):
Jared Goff continued his hot streak of not even throwing incompletions.
True story, Simon at halftime, I bet Jared Goff seventeen
to one to win MVP.
Speaker 3 (16:36):
So go ahead and apologize to Detroit fans right now
because we are career enders this year. Chat everyone we
bet on dies.
Speaker 2 (16:43):
I mean, look we had It's not true.
Speaker 3 (16:44):
It's true we had. How bad luck we are, so
I wouldn't even said anything. You better be.
Speaker 2 (16:51):
Careful getting the number one seed gets hurt.
Speaker 3 (16:56):
Now everyone's gonna blame you. I'm gonna blame you. I'll
be honest.
Speaker 2 (17:00):
Yeah, I know you're right. Listen, We're about transparency, and.
Speaker 1 (17:03):
So we have to share what we do, both the
good and the bad. Right we talked about the Panthers.
We didn't do anything with the Panthers this week. Good
for us, Thank god you know, but if we're going to.
Speaker 2 (17:15):
Bet the Lions, and I'm going to.
Speaker 3 (17:16):
Bet it was so tempting too. I don't know about you,
but it got up to ten. That was tempting.
Speaker 2 (17:21):
Wow. Listen, we'll talk for a second.
Speaker 1 (17:26):
At the end of this about me panic texting you
this morning when Mason Rudolph.
Speaker 3 (17:32):
I get it, you know, I know. We're just trying
to find winners wherever we fucking can chat. I get it.
Speaker 2 (17:38):
Jesus all right.
Speaker 1 (17:39):
So then the lines were up twenty at seventeen. Yeah,
and I don't know about you, you can tell me
what you think. The last couple of weeks, we've just
been snaked it right the Giant Vangels.
Speaker 3 (17:49):
I was like, this is too easy.
Speaker 1 (17:51):
Yeah, it was not going to go our way.
Speaker 3 (17:54):
No Montgomery, as soon as he fumbled that when he
punched that out perfectly and it skip bounced right up
to that, I think it was either cornerback of linebacker,
just perfect, right in full step. He takes it for
a touchdown. I was like, Okay, at least it's on
the one, right, as long as they don't get the
two point or me and Chad will somehow cover this number.
They didn't get to two, and all I think to
(18:17):
myself was, please don't throw a pick six golf like,
because at the time, again we were staring at oh
and two and it's like, are we really about to
start another week? Ohen three? I know I can't handle
Chad certainly cannot handle another oh and three start to
a week, and yeah, you're MVP. Jared goff Man took
us right down the field and Gibbs too. Gibbs, what
(18:39):
a great game by the kid. I mean, the second
year player. You know, the port has disappeared. Gibbs is
not in his second year, and that was a huge
game by him, just because Montgomery had the injury. Then
he has the fumble and it's like, we need this
kid to have big plays for us, and he did.
And you know, our fear was the Hutchinson thing would
be a big deal. It wasn't. It wasn't right. They
(19:01):
got pressure at times. I mean again, they're like you said,
they're up twenty one ten at one point. But at
the end of the game, that's when you really felt it,
where it's like they're not getting to him and he
is making completions right now. But we got kind of
lucky too. That was a bad game overall by the
Vikings offense, so their defense kind of was up to
(19:24):
the task, and then it got away for them pretty
quick once. Like we talked about, once the Lions get
it going, you can't stop it. That's why I mean,
you love betting them right now. It's like it's all
clicking offensively. We didn't care they lost touchingson because offensively
it's all there. And we both agreed this number should
have been you know, Detroit minus one and a half
minus two. The line was fishy, it was off. You know,
(19:47):
the books took a stand. We disagreed with it, and
that's that's nice when those ones come through, cause it's
like I bet that one heavy. I know you bet
it heavy, and it's like what am I not seeing here? Again?
I still couldn't get over that number got to two
and a half a day and a half. It was
just a weird week where we all know the Vikings
are pretty good, but they're not that good and even
(20:08):
in this game they need a couple of weird bounces
just to get it to be a close one. So
once again, this Vikings team, the values gonna come back around.
We're gonna betting on them again. But right now I
still think they're probably still overvalued heading into this next
week because that game was once again so close. They
didn't get blown out, they kept it close once again,
and it's gonna be interest see what their number is
this upcoming week.
Speaker 1 (20:28):
Well, I was checking, and I'm glad I wanted to
talk about that. I will be very interested they're playing Tennessee.
Speaker 2 (20:36):
The number is one of the biggest numbers we've.
Speaker 1 (20:38):
Seen all season, and I do want to talk about
it when we get into that part of the show.
I'm glad you bring up Hutchinson because like that was
sort of the note that I wanted to end on
when reviewing this game that I put in the script,
because when we needed aidd Hutchinson to get pressure, the
(21:03):
Vikings were able to sort of get down the field
and get that field goal because the line just could
not get the pressure like he had the time at
the end of the game. It was not his best game,
but he was able to make the throws he needed
to make because no one was getting to him.
Speaker 2 (21:19):
So that is something to think about.
Speaker 1 (21:21):
It's why Jared Goff will probably win MVP when they
go fifteen and or sixteen and one. However many games
they play now, But that's something to think about, for sure. Yeah,
for sure. Right now there is reporting that Kyle Shanahan
(21:42):
is worried Brandon Ayuk has an aco injury. Fuck Kansas
City plus two and a half at San Francisco. All
week long, we had been debating are we going to
put in Green Bay? Are we going to put in
Kansas City? Are we going to put in Green Bay?
Are we going to put in Kansas City? As much
as you were adamant about the Giants, you were also
(22:03):
adamant about Kansas City, which I like was just having
a hard time wrapping my head around because I have
such belief in the Niners and because I've been so
worried about the lack of productivity from the Chiefs overall
on offense.
Speaker 2 (22:20):
Dude, you were spot.
Speaker 1 (22:23):
On standing oh for you, standing, oh for Patrick Mahomes
because it played exactly like you said it was going
to And why we have to bet the Kansas City Chiefs.
Speaker 3 (22:37):
Yeah, I just can't believe you haven't learned your lesson.
I thought forever you. I was humbled by that Ravens
Chiefs game last year in the playoffs. I told you
a million times there will never be a better team
and a better spot that could beat Mahomes with less talent,
Like that was such a bad Mahomes team playing against
the best, one of the best Raven teams I've ever
(22:58):
had on paper, and it was a lesson. It was
just like when he is a dog, you trust the
number and then we mixed in that whole thing about
and you read off the bye week. I know it
sounds corny, but it's like the guy is automatic after
the bye week, especially as a dog. So this was
going to be no matter what. This is like, this
is like the Rams game. This is one of my
(23:19):
biggest bets of the year. Hammered it all in, didn't
care this morning. I think it went up to two
and a half. Even better, Like when that's.
Speaker 1 (23:28):
A lie that you were a little nervous this morning.
Like when it got up to two and a half,
you're like, I'm all in on this.
Speaker 2 (23:35):
It's weird to me. There wasn't.
Speaker 1 (23:37):
I'm not saying there was any hesitation at all, but
you did make a note that it was weird.
Speaker 3 (23:44):
I thought he was dumb enough to bet six figures
against my Homes here it's like, you know, I know
a couple of guys who came on the other side,
and it's like you're the same suckers from the Super
Bowl that just we all have the same models. That's
why I keep saying to people, anyone that has a
model would make the forty nine ers favorite in this spot.
And I said it to you before the game. I
know they have the bad left tackle. I know their
(24:04):
number one receiver Rice is out. Like everyone knows Isaiah
pa Checko's not playing everything. Everyone knows all the negatives
with this Chiefs team. But I just kept saying, it
doesn't matter. It's just such a mismatch in pedigree and
coaching and those situations where it's like Spags and Reid
after a bye week. I mean, you saw it, all
(24:26):
those stupid wacky plays they run. I mean, how many
dumb catches did their tight end or third receiver have,
Like it just Reid is in his bag. It's incredible watching.
And we got the Mahomes fluke right, the Mahomes running
up the sideline, Mahomes picking up the third down so easily.
A game where I was terrified when I was fourteen twelve,
(24:46):
because again I had a lot of money on it.
It's like you felt the snowball right with the forty
nine ers. Everything was going their way. But Purdy, I
mean one of the worst games I've ever seen him had.
I mean this and that Ravens game, Like, yeah, you know,
two big games at home, and he kind of has melted,
like buttering both those games. Like I think you had
three picks in that Ravens game as well. He was
terrible today. So yeah, that's it's nice when it comes through.
(25:09):
But you know what makes me really happy, especially for
the show where it's like, you know we've had a
grind this year, is when we give out that boost
and you know our fans, you know, the week before
we're giving them Carolina Panthers money line with the Jets
money line. It's nice in a week we can give
them the Lines money line and the Chiefs money line.
(25:29):
It's like, we're not always assholes people. We're not always
going to make you bet the worst teams and make
you hit your life. We are going to give you
a little bit of chalk. So yeah, it's a nice hit.
And you came around on it, like I saw in
the app you bet the Chiefs. Yeah, before kickoffs, So
it's like I knew i'd break you eventually. It's just
the the trends were overwhelming, and then the matchup when
you really thought about it, it's just like, this is
(25:51):
a nice, nice play to this Chiefs team, But I
can't wait for next week because this is a cell
high as we can get on this Chiefs team.
Speaker 2 (25:58):
Well, we're gonna get that opportunity. And I wrote that.
Speaker 1 (26:02):
I wrote that line down to talk about I want
to give three examples that when Patrick Mahomes made these plays,
I thought to myself, I had your voice in my head.
This is why we bet Patrick Mahomes. This is making
your own luck. This is why things go his way.
At the end of the game, nine minutes left in
(26:23):
the first half, Kansas City up seven to three, just
outside the red zone. It's a third and medium. He's
pressured in the pocket, sidesteps the sack like does a
backhanded flip to an open receiver for a first down.
Three plays later, they go up fourteen to three, second
and seven from the thirty seven. Towards the end of
(26:45):
the third, he breaks contain runs for the first fakes
a pass. He is far beyond the line of scrimmage,
fakes it, the tackler is dumbfounded, he runs past him
and then no one tackles him against third three yards.
Speaker 2 (27:00):
That's going to be the play of the year.
Speaker 1 (27:03):
And that's why stupid media suckers are going to vote
for him for MVP instead of Jared Goff because of
that stupid play. And then here's why we hate betting
against Mahomes. It's third and eight with just under five.
They're bleeding the clock. He steps up to avoid the sack.
He has guys hanging on his waist, makes a perfect
(27:23):
nine yard pass to convert the first down. Kevin Burkhart,
who was announcing the game, it says out loud, you
just have to laugh because there's there's nothing you can
do about it. And I'm with you, I am converted.
That is why you have to do it the.
Speaker 3 (27:39):
Rest of your life though. That's what I'm saying, like
you need to just anytime he's a dog, even if
we fucking hate the spot, we just have to say
to ourselves long term until proven otherwise, like if he
loses four straight, that's what it would take to get
me off betting Mahomes as an underdog because it's so
rare and every time he does it, even today, right,
it was eighty percent of the tickets or something like that,
(28:00):
Evan told us. Unconvinced me didn't matter, like it don't matter.
The public note the secret's out. So yeah, that that
was fun. And like I said, it's a game we
desperately needed. We needed to be two and two here
tonight on the show. So thank god it came through.
Speaker 1 (28:17):
Public against the spread in the past two weeks so
far nineteen five and one.
Speaker 3 (28:23):
Fuck crazy, we're surviving this right now. We should be
getting zero for five to one for four weeks.
Speaker 1 (28:29):
We should but like I don't want to, like I
honestly like I don't want to praise ourselves. We don't
deserve it in any way. But I will say, like,
we do think a lot about this, and we don't
just blindly make the bets, like we look for the
spots and we know chalk can win. You've said chalk
(28:51):
can win. Like we're we're trying to be flexible and
adapt We're not just trying to be people who do
the same thing over and over because the trends say it,
like that's what we talk about every week. You don't
just bet the trend. We love the numbers that Evan
gives us, but they have to be part of an
overall philosophy in which you're paying attention to the situation.
(29:12):
You're paying attention to the matchups on the field, you're
paying attention to what you're seeing with your eyes, and
then the trends helped to sort of inform that they do.
Speaker 3 (29:21):
I view it as like we talk any more in
my whole job. I viewed as just trying to get
you not to step in a bunch of shit, and like,
that's that's hard because I have to try to I
need someone out there to get me now the step
of my own shit, like the Giants. But like that
green Bay number, it stanked to me all week. I
hate it all week, and I'm like, the minute that
game kicked off, I was like, thank fucking god, we
(29:41):
don't have this green Bay minus two and a half.
Like you just knew it was gonna either land on
the two or somehow Houston was gonna win. And of
course they landed either on one or two. And Sam
goes for us, dodging that Tennessee bullet because it's like
everything you said is true, right, that's a huge number
for that Bills team, and you know you're getting Mason
(30:01):
Rudolph at a will Levis price. Apparently they're both will Levis.
Don't matter if you switch the name on the back
of the jersey, They're just both equally terrible. So it
was a week where I feel fortunate to be tune
and two because there was just a lot of games
that were tempting and we luckily stayed away from them.
The only big miss for us is what I think
you agree on is just the Seahawks. We both liked
(30:23):
it three and a half. Yeah, I gave out the
money line. It was just a nice spot and a
nice team. I like, you know, my fear with that
one was just not that their defense is horrible, but
I just have a lot of questions about the Seahawks
defense coming to this game, and they stepped up right.
They played really well. So yeah, kudos to the Seahawks
(30:44):
and anyone that took him a three and a half.
That was a really nice number. It was never a
sweat stuck.
Speaker 1 (30:48):
You had him in the Sunday six pack for the
Action Network podcast, and I agree. I wish we had
talked about it this morning for even a second, like
we were both just mean.
Speaker 3 (30:57):
You mentioned it and I was like, I like it,
but I liked unfortunately, like the fucking Giants words sucks.
Speaker 1 (31:02):
You know, It's like it was the like the Falcons
have been so lucky this year they were due against
a good team to regress a little bit. Speaking of
the public, you know, we like the Jets.
Speaker 2 (31:13):
We talked about it all week.
Speaker 1 (31:15):
They are definitely the public side, although they also the
sharp side. Uh, tomorrow night we have Tampa Bay. We're
two and two right now on the contest. Tampa Bay
is not the public side at all. In fact, like
this number is going up, there are some places where
it's for it's been sitting at three and a half
a week. I will say it makes me a little
(31:37):
nervous right now because Mike Evans we expect him to play.
I saw in the latest injury report Vitevea is now questionable.
One of the main reasons we liked that game was
him able to control the line of scrimmage.
Speaker 3 (31:53):
So, I mean, if we really wanted to, we could
switch it out technically for Arizona Vida Vey's out, but
I don't know. I already can sell see us hating
ourselves for making that change.
Speaker 1 (32:02):
Yeah, we're gonna be UPSETI their way because either we're
going to keep it and lose, or we change it
out and they win. Yeah, there's no way, there's no way.
If we change it out, the Bucks don't cover. It's like, yeah,
we might as well put the mortgage on the Bucks
covering if we decide to change it out. We need
to look ahead to week eight. Couple of really interesting lines.
(32:25):
First one up, let's talk about Kansas City ten point
favorites right now on the road at Las Vegas raiders.
What are we gonna do here? We got a we
got we gotta buck the trend of road favorites. We
gotta buck the trend of road teams covering. We gotta
(32:47):
get ourselves to sack.
Speaker 3 (32:48):
Up divisional road favorites.
Speaker 2 (32:51):
Yeah, all of it. It sucks a double digit favorite.
Speaker 3 (32:56):
No, it's it's the brutal We have no choice. That's
what like again is tough about the show where it's like,
this is how we win long term. We have to
stick to it. We'd be fools not to take it.
It's an insane number. And you know again, shoot on
Minshew all you want people he was in the game
again at the end of the game. This this this game,
like they almost upset the Rams, and it's just, yeah,
(33:18):
he has one play where you are like, this is
the worst quarterback in the league, and then you'll have
a couple of throws where it's like, Okay, this is
why he's a stable backup. So it's another spot where
if it's the if it's Minshew in the ten, I
take it. If it's an O'Connell, I don't, but he
might have broken his thumb, so it's unlikely it's going
(33:38):
to be him. So you know, we love the Raiders
matchup historically against the Chiefs that you just always play
them tough and it's disgusting. But this is going to
be around money, money line round, Robin, I can tell
you that much. Like it's just long term. I'm sure
Evan will have some stats for us come Tuesday, you know,
in his breakdown. But in my lifetime, there's only one
(33:59):
team in this division that beats Mahomes and it's the Raiders.
And I think it's might have happened three times, but
each of those times I've gotten like a plus three
hundred plus four hundred on the Raiders money line. So yeah,
this is a gross number, but like you just said,
I'm taking it now. It can only it only goes down, right,
There's no way this goes higher. Just the way the
(34:19):
books have been this year, it's tough to see this
getting up to eleven or twelve.
Speaker 1 (34:25):
The other game we got to talk about at least
for a second. You just mentioned Detroit twelve and a
half point favorite at home against Tennessee.
Speaker 3 (34:35):
I mean, it's a shocking to say that's still too
low to me. Really, Yeah, the way that Lion's offense
is playing, get us the thirteen fourteen, that's where this
should be. The Titans are fucking horrible. They were up
ten to nothing on the bill, Yeah, yeah, and then
just got rolled. And you know that's that's the hard part,
(34:56):
chat is we're trying to bet on teams that we
don't think quit. Like there's a couple of games you
see see guys making them like that that Giants Eagles game.
A couple of Giants players made business decisions like they
could have made hits on guys and they pull up
or they don't make the tackle. Where it's like that's
something I'm always in the lookout for because that just
shows the view of the team right now. And the
(35:17):
Titans made a lot of business decision against that Bills team.
So yeah, I would, honestly, wait, I think that one
keeps going up and just detroitsa juggernaut right now in Tennessee.
You know, they're like the Patriots of they're one of
the worst teams in football.
Speaker 1 (35:28):
Raybon, it's being reported that Chris Raybon just put Cowboys
plus six and a half into the app. They're at
the Niners. That number I'm seeing in the app is
down to five and a half. I don't know if
you have a strong opinion here.
Speaker 3 (35:44):
I mean, yeah, it's six and a half. It's it's
it's a great number. But I'm with you, I don't.
I don't know where that number exists. I'm trying to
see and if any books have it still now. I
think he might have got the Early Line movie, because
I'm seeing almost every book now, You're right, is down
to five and a.
Speaker 2 (36:01):
Half, five and a half.
Speaker 3 (36:02):
It's a key number, like that's six. Six is a
big deal.
Speaker 1 (36:05):
A couple other that are interesting to me real quickly,
I want to run through before we get to yours.
Speaker 2 (36:09):
Sure, the Bears.
Speaker 1 (36:10):
Are one and a half point underdogs at the Commanders
right now, coming off a bye. It's weird to me
they're still dogs, not knowing the Jade and Daniels situation.
Speaker 3 (36:21):
Yeah, I one of my first bets it was actually two,
so it is moving a little bit that it's down
to one and a half. I just I can see
that easily flipping right. Yeah to making the Bears a favorite,
which is a little scary having him on the road
is a favorite. But that, you know, whatever you want
to say about that win today against Carolina. They're a
(36:45):
good team, but it's like Mariota at one point had
like three yards passing, They're up twenty nothing right Like
that was just what can we really take away from
that game and from Mariota. My view of Mariota is
he's a bad quarterback and your guys are looking for
Your guys defense is really good, like the Bears as
good as you know Williams is playing, the offense has
(37:05):
been playing. I still think the biggest mainstead of that
team right now the Bears is your guys defense. So
I'm with you on that one. I'd grabbed that now
plus one and a half you.
Speaker 1 (37:15):
Know what's interesting to me, Mariota. When he came in,
they showed his career stats. I was shocked that he
had twenty or thirty more touchdown passes in his career.
Then he has interceptions like I've always thought.
Speaker 2 (37:30):
He was so bad that.
Speaker 1 (37:33):
Oh wow, the Bears commanders is now I think off
the board because I'm not Oh, I'm not getting it
anywhere right now. And I wonder if that's because of
Jayden Daniels.
Speaker 3 (37:47):
Has to be because that Nuver didn't sound right anyway.
I just don't. I can't see them being a favorite
against this Bears team coming off of bye week.
Speaker 1 (37:56):
Yeah, I was trying to make the bet as you
were talking, and it's off the board.
Speaker 2 (38:02):
Seattle plus three at home against Buffalo.
Speaker 3 (38:10):
I don't know what to do with this number.
Speaker 2 (38:12):
What are you talking about it?
Speaker 1 (38:13):
I'm pinpointing numbers that like look a little bit interesting
to me. I don't think Buffalo is should be a
three point favorite on the road against Seattle yet.
Speaker 3 (38:23):
Me either. But at the same time, it makes sense
because it's Josh Allen Verstino Smith, right.
Speaker 1 (38:28):
Yeah, but Gino Smith is still a very accurate passer
who's going against a defense that has holes in the middle.
Speaker 3 (38:35):
I agree, So you know, I'll take the plus three
on Seattle. But this is easily a position I could
maybe change come Tuesday or Thursday, Like if this is
down to two minus two and a half with the Bills,
I could be tempted here, But you're right, right now,
the right number to take is Seattle plus three, Like
that's that's a good number and an inflated number with
(38:57):
what you just said. This again, my hesitation here is
the Seattle defense. Chat. They've just been so bad against
comparable offenses, and I know they stepped up today, but
I felt like a lot of that was self inflicted
wounds by the Atlanta team. And you're right though, like
this is a nice cell high spot right on this
Bills team, such a huge win. We've seen them struggle
(39:21):
as well against comparable offenses. So this is tough, but
I'll take the plus three with you right now. This
is easily a game I could flip on.
Speaker 2 (39:30):
I did find while you were talking.
Speaker 1 (39:32):
I did find the Bears plus one and a half
at one book still available. It was down at the
two other books here in Connecticut, last one and this
line is already moving Cincinnati minus two versus Philly at home.
Speaker 3 (39:50):
Yeah, another game where it's two teams I just don't
trust right now. Offensively, I'll probably end up on just
taking the under. But I would say you're if you're thinking,
here're the smart side is Cincinnati. So that's fair, Like,
that's probably a good number against this Eagles team that
you know, they're just they're not as good as their
(40:12):
record states right now. That is an interesting number though,
just hang in the two like they're literally just letting
us dictate where they're going to move this number.
Speaker 2 (40:22):
That's that's what surprised me.
Speaker 3 (40:24):
And so you don't see many two So I'll tell
you that much. You don't see many. You don't see
a lot of twos on Sunday night.
Speaker 2 (40:30):
No, all right, So.
Speaker 3 (40:35):
You want to get a game that immediately jumps out
to me, Colts plus six and a half against Houston,
Like again, I'm going to rush to bed it because
I do think it'll go up because Anthony Rusians not
played well. You know, people just think that Colts team
a little fraud in Houston played really well, probably should
have won that game. I just I don't know, there's
(40:56):
something about c J when he's a big favorite like this,
I always kind of want to take the other like
he just has teams play it close, and they kind
of keep teams in these games. So that's the number
that jumped out to me. It's like, I'll be patient.
I'll grab it now just because it's six and a half,
but I won't put a lot on it because it's
like this only goes up right teasers, parlays. Everything's gonna
coming on this Houston team. Yeah, I'm hoping I get
(41:18):
up to a seven. I'm taking it just in case
I'm missing something here. But you can get the Packers
minus five right now against the Jaguars.
Speaker 2 (41:30):
That's weird.
Speaker 3 (41:31):
In what world? The Jaguars are horrible? I don't care.
I mean, okay, they just blew out a team in England.
I know Evan's gonna have the stats too about these
teams not that don't take a bye week and they
just come back from anything play the following week in
the one PM games.
Speaker 2 (41:47):
Yeah, that number four and a half.
Speaker 3 (41:50):
Yeah, so like that's I told you, I'll take some
chalk every now and then. That's a nice chalk spot.
It feels like this is the week.
Speaker 2 (41:57):
Why would that number go down.
Speaker 3 (42:00):
I mean, honestly, there could be a bunch of different
reasons where maybe people think they saw some of the
Jaguars today like winning that game, But I'm totally selling them.
I just think they're such a bad, poorly coach team
right now. I can't see it. So I'll definitely grab
the minus four and a half.
Speaker 2 (42:17):
Cut anyone else.
Speaker 3 (42:20):
Yeah, this is the last one that really jumped out
to me there, just of like, Okay, is this a
line that you know I'm missing something here. It's because
they think because two is coming back, it's a huge
boost from Miami. You can get Cardinals plus two and
a half right now.
Speaker 2 (42:38):
I saw that, and to me, it's all about Tua.
Speaker 3 (42:40):
I know, I think there's been no guarantee he's going
to be back, so it's like an easy number to
take now if we need to, we can buy to
have for a position later. But watching the Miami team today,
they should have won that game in ten different ways
and they just couldn't do it because they just have
nothing to keep you position. I mean, I think Tyreek
(43:01):
Hill had ten yards receiving. Like it's just all bad
right now for that offense. Nothing's right and you know,
even if two it comes back, I mean, how much
will this number really move? It's coming off a major
head injury in his first start. The craziest, the highest
I can see this guy is minus three. So yeah,
from early bet I ticked the two and a half.
Speaker 2 (43:22):
Yeah, right now.
Speaker 1 (43:23):
The Dolphins, they went through Tyler Huntley, they ended with Tim.
Speaker 3 (43:27):
Boyle, ended with Tim Boyle. Yeah, which was that might
be the quarterback?
Speaker 2 (43:32):
That's that's no good. No, that's no good.
Speaker 1 (43:35):
All right, we've run through the games. We're going to
go deeper on Tuesday. Obviously we're rooting hard for the Jets.
Speaker 3 (43:44):
No, we didn't even talk Vikings minus three versus the Rams.
There's a lot of really fun games this will coming
week that we'd even touch.
Speaker 1 (43:50):
Yeah, rooting hard for the Jets tonight, rooting hard, hard,
hard for the Bucks tomorrow.
Speaker 2 (43:58):
We'd like to feel good on Tuesday.
Speaker 1 (44:02):
As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet
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bet five dollars sign up using promo code Favorites, deposit
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two hundred dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can
(44:22):
be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more.
Whatever the moment, It's never ordinary. At bet three sixty five.
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(44:42):
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restrictions apply. Catch our next episode of the Favorites live
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whole NFL Week eight board, announce our Week seven test winner.
Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods wherever you get your pods,
(45:04):
Rate review, subscribe, weave us five stars, say.
Speaker 2 (45:06):
Whatever you want. Feedback is a gift until Tuesday. Love You.
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Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network,
Live from our Tommy John Holmes Studios. I am Chad
Mellman of the Action Network. This is our Sunday night episode.
We will review the faves five picks we put into
the contest di sect, why we left some games out, fascinating,
(00:32):
fascinating conversations Simon and I had in the noon hour
before we finalized our picks. We're gonna preview the lines
we like for week eight. I'm joined as always by
the mentioned co host companion Campadre BFF Professional Better Simed
Hunter Ella Simed. Hello, Chad, dude, a fascinating, fascinating day.
(00:57):
We're gonna break it down. But before the early games,
there was a run on betting the Niners. When they
were favored by one and a half, it got up
to two. It got up to two and a half
at a lot of books. The number also moved in
the contest right, So for anybody listening, you can make
contest picks anytime during the week, but if you decide
(01:19):
to make a change, you got to change all your numbers.
Speaker 2 (01:22):
I have been hesitating on.
Speaker 1 (01:23):
The Chiefs from a math perspective and a team health perspective.
To me, it just didn't make sense to bet them
at less than the key number of two. Simon didn't care.
Simon was headstrong that betting against Patrick Mahomes in this spot.
It doesn't matter what anything says in the box score
or what any injuries are existing for the team. You
(01:47):
just bet Patrick Mahomes is a dog or a short favorite.
So on Sunday morning, we did something.
Speaker 2 (01:51):
We never do.
Speaker 1 (01:52):
We made a flurry of last second changes to our picks,
all in service of getting the Chiefs at plus two
and a half half. How did it impact us? Let's
find out. And by the way, if you believe you
could beat our picks this season, be our guest. Let
us pay you forty thousand dollars. Sign up at Favorites
dot actionnetwork dot com catch every episode of The Favorites
(02:15):
live on YouTube. For those enjoying on YouTube, don't forget
to give us a like and subscribe to the Action
Network YouTube page. Reminder, The Favorites podcast is presented by
Bet three sixty five and now new BET three sixty
five Customers get two hundred dollars in bonus bets. When
you bet five dollars, sign up using promo code favorites,
(02:35):
deposit ten dollars, place a bet for five dollars to
get two hundred dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus bets
can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more,
whatever the moment.
Speaker 2 (02:48):
It's never ordinary.
Speaker 1 (02:49):
At bet three sixty five, must be twenty one or
older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina,
New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, we're eighteen and older. In Kentucky,
gambling problem call one eight hundred gambler or one eight
hundred bets off. In Iowa terms, conditions restrictions apply, all right.
So when we decided we wanted to get the Chiefs
(03:11):
in at plus two and a half, we had to
go with all the updated lines. As I mentioned before,
at that point, the Packers, who we had been leaning
towards all week, we're now at three and a half,
not the two and a half that we had lucked in.
We took out the packers. Great trade. Better to get
the number on the Chiefs. So and we will get
(03:34):
to this, so don't say anything yet, Simon, because my
bff here loved, loved, loved the Giants. He wanted them
in so bad he tried to get me to take them.
Unconvinced me. All week long. I had been saying, I
don't trust this team. I don't trust the team. Without
Andrew Thomas, zero packed protection, they can't score at home.
(03:56):
Simon insisted we will discuss. He will defend in a moment.
Here's a crazy stat from Evan that he gave on
convince me this morning. Catch it live on YouTube and
in the Action Network app. Heading into today, overall road
teams sixty one percent against the spread this season, second
(04:19):
best win percentage through seven weeks in the Wildcard era.
That's since nineteen ninety. Today, road teams against the spread
seven and three. Also, road favorites are undefeated since week
five fifteen and oh, road faves.
Speaker 2 (04:41):
Since week five.
Speaker 1 (04:42):
That is insane. Today they went to and oh about
the Bengals and the Eagles covered as road faves. We
of course, were on the other side of both of
those games. Let's start with Cincinnati and Cleveland. One of
those games. You know, Look, the way it started was
exactly as we expected it to start. Simon like wighs
(05:03):
good and bad. You know, the Bengals run the opening
kickback for a touchdown. The Browns defense was awesome. They
were in the Bengals backfield. They were stopping Joe Burrow
on third down, stopping on the run. The Bengals could
not score. The only thing was, of course, the missed
(05:23):
field goal by the Browns. As soon as that happened,
we knew it was terrible.
Speaker 2 (05:30):
But then the Browns are driving.
Speaker 1 (05:34):
Deshaun Watson doesn't look terrible, drops back, moves forward, ruptures
his achilles and I don't know if you saw this,
but watching it on slow motion, I've never seen what
the injury looks like. And they had the perfect angle
where the bot his heel just dropped like he steps.
(05:55):
You see it snap. You see the heel drop when
it should not be dropping.
Speaker 2 (05:59):
It was.
Speaker 1 (06:00):
It was disconcerting and uncomfortable. I don't know what you
were thinking.
Speaker 3 (06:03):
Then it's the worst. It makes my skin crawl even
here and you talk about it. Yeah, it's one of
my biggest fears. I'm one of those people where it's
like every time my leg's a little tight, I'm like,
oh my god, that is tearing my achilles. So now
you're right that that was probably his best drive of
the season. Honestly, that's how bad he's been. He was
making good throws driving down the field, and yeah, got
(06:24):
bit by the injury bug.
Speaker 2 (06:26):
It was. And I felt like we had a little
bit of a shot.
Speaker 1 (06:32):
In that game because I thought they were playing really
well and their defense was lights out. It was I mean,
I'm i it was a super bummer. And then Dorian
Thompson Robinson comes in, makes a good sort of throw
to the outside shoulder of the receiver, gets the call
(06:53):
for pass interference.
Speaker 2 (06:55):
They're on the one.
Speaker 1 (06:56):
Of course, like they get called for a legal formation
or whatever, so they back it up, but they still
go for it, and then they missed the extra point.
Speaker 3 (07:07):
Yeah, and just we talked about before the show, when
he missed that fieldgal in the first half and they
get a kick return, you're already down ten now with
a dog Usually it's really tough to come back from that.
And you know, I don't know what happened, but they
made Jameis Winston their third quarterback and end up coming
at end of the game actually giving us a chance
(07:28):
at giving the back door still thank you, Jamis. But yeah,
just it's bad, like we're having this bad luck on
these home dogs. Things are just that's why you take
these dogs. So you have stupid bounces in football, and
they usually bounce the way of the dog, I mean
historically long term. Like I said, that's why you want
to make these bets. So the reason I want to
(07:49):
take Cleveland the same reason I want to take the Giants.
It's like, at worst I thought we would go one
on one. I thought we had a really good chance
of going to and out where it's like I like
these spots. We're getting good point value. Both these teams
coming in are a little bit overrated and a little
shakey offensively, and both teams are boom and busts. And
we saw that, like the Eagles had a couple of
big boom plays that worked out from same with Cincinnati. Right,
(08:10):
Cincinnati's offense, like you said, they didn't do much. Brown's
defense did pretty good. And you know, I was filing
pretty good going to half, even though we had lost Watson.
It was seven to six, like they just got to
keep this in arm's length and he had fortunately a
couple of bad turnovers. You know, twenty one to six
that Brown's bet was dead.
Speaker 1 (08:30):
Yeah, there was a key play. I think the Browns
were in field goal range, had a fourth and one,
and I said to my kid sitting next to me
on the couch, you got to run the RPO like
Dorian Thompson. Robinson had been having his way with running
the ball in that game. Why they drop him back?
(08:52):
Why they don't give him the option to run? He's
so fast. The Bengals still had not been able to
really adjust for or a different kind of quarterback in
the game. You gotta go one freaking yard and you
got Nick chub like, let him make the play at
the point of contact with the running back.
Speaker 2 (09:12):
You you're with me right like? It didn't make it
any Like. I'm an idiot.
Speaker 1 (09:18):
I don't know anything about football, and I knew that
the most common play right now, that every running quarterback,
that every athletic quarterback, that even non athletic quarterbacks run,
is an r PO. And Kevin Stefanski, who I love,
does not call an RPO.
Speaker 2 (09:36):
That's you. You deserve what you get in that spot.
Speaker 3 (09:39):
That's how I view it.
Speaker 2 (09:42):
Good.
Speaker 1 (09:42):
I'm glad we agree mentioned the Giants. You insisted we
had the Giants plus three and a half. Yeah, all
week you tried to tempt me.
Speaker 2 (09:51):
You didn't. Bully, Definitely I.
Speaker 3 (09:54):
Got you, though, I eventually got you come around the under.
Speaker 1 (09:57):
But you did and and I appreciate that. I mean,
this game was dreadful to start, like, just sacks on
every single both.
Speaker 3 (10:04):
Sides are just That's why I thought it was going
to be just an ugly, sloppy like game. But the
Giants quickly learned. The difference of the game was the
guy that got rid of Barkley. He was a game changer, right.
I think he had one hundred and sixty yards rushing.
Speaker 2 (10:17):
More than that?
Speaker 3 (10:18):
Did he really look it up?
Speaker 2 (10:19):
Right now?
Speaker 1 (10:20):
He had more than that? I think he said a record.
He's already the leading rusher in the history of the Meadowlands.
I think he had like one hundred and seventy five
yards rushing.
Speaker 3 (10:30):
Yeah, I mean it was a bad bet. And like again,
it's a game where the things when we need to
bounce our way just didn't. I think it was a
fourth and three, you know, Hurts throws a bomb. Aj
Browns was a touchdown on a fourth down, you know.
Daniel Jones finally puts a good drive together, they score
a touchdown, his first touchdown in six hundred days passing
(10:53):
in the meadowlands. They call it back on offensive pass interference.
It was just, yeah, the little thing that we need
to go ourway to not and yeah, I'm just getting
burned right now in these home divisional dogs, like I
love taking home dogs, and man, it is not coming around.
Speaker 1 (11:11):
Saquon Barkley had one hundred and seventy six yards rushing,
and you the Giants' defense has been playing lights out.
And before the season, we all sort of thought that
the coverage unit for the Giants was going to be terrible.
They haven't been. We didn't know what the pass rush
(11:32):
is going to be. They've been amazing, leading the league
in sacks.
Speaker 2 (11:36):
Yeah, and I.
Speaker 1 (11:38):
Feel terrible for this Giants defensive unit because they are
playing lights out. They really are. They're playing amazing. They
are getting less than help from their office. They're getting
negative help. They're getting the opposite of help. They're getting
like the defense is actually made. The offense is making
it much much harder for them, right, and at some
(12:01):
point they're gonna break, Like they they barely gave up
the big plays in the first half, there were two
of them to Saque and then like you meant mentioned
the fourth and three from Jalen Hurst to AJ Brown,
Like they're not going to be perfect, but the Giants
offense is terrible, can't do anything. It's so it's so frustrating, dude,
(12:22):
it's so frustrating. At one point in the middle of
the second quarter, the Giants had been sacked four times
and they had four touchdowns, I mean four first downs,
four first downs, not touchdowns.
Speaker 3 (12:35):
Right right right, Yeah, again, it's it's a bad read,
but this is this is life betting ugly dogs. So
it's like, I agree with everything you said, but it's
just it's just brutal where we can't catch breaks right
now in these ugly dogs and it's like the only
thing hitting for us is chalk, Like we're vetting. You know,
normally I wouldn't loved that Lions line, but we just
(12:57):
kept talking about something was off with that line. So
it's just, you know, another week of the bets that
we usually win we lose, and the chalky bets we
make that we usually are a little scared to even make.
They're no brain or hitters right now, Like it's just
chalk is king and we kind of need to adjust
to it. So yeah, hopefully that ends with the Bucks
on Monday night.
Speaker 1 (13:19):
Evan, if you could look this up real fast, I'd
love to know and just throw it in the chat.
How is the public doing this week? We know they
crushed last week, Simon and I won with the public.
We're winning today again with the public. Detroit was a
public side, The Chiefs were a public side, The Bills
(13:40):
were a public side. I think those were three of
the bigger public sides this week. But I'd love to know, like,
are we headed for another regression? Is it two weeks
in a row that were sort of The public is
cashing on a regular basis, much more than they had
been in the past.
Speaker 2 (13:58):
Remember the first five.
Speaker 1 (14:00):
Weeks of the year, the public had been doing historically bad,
so obviously there was going to be some regression, But
how much is too much at this point? Just to
close the book on the Giants, Daniel Jones threw for
ninety nine yards, which is less than four point seven
yards per attempt. They had one hundred and nineteen total
(14:23):
yards in the game, and they were sacked eight times
and Daniel Jones was pulled for Drew freaking lock. You
know it's a lock that your bet has lost when
Drew Locke enters the chap. Imagine being John Marra, the
(14:48):
owner of the Giants and the GM for the Giants,
knowing that the story of the summer was them on.
Speaker 2 (14:59):
Whatever that's show is called that I can't remember, Hard Knocks,
Hard Knocks, and the.
Speaker 1 (15:04):
Whole first couple episodes are about keeping Saquon, letting him go,
and the owner being like.
Speaker 2 (15:11):
He's the most popular player.
Speaker 1 (15:13):
I'm gonna be really disappointed if he's in the division,
in the division, one hundred and seventy six touchdowns, domination
station makes.
Speaker 2 (15:24):
The Eagles look healthy.
Speaker 3 (15:25):
No, he's incredible.
Speaker 1 (15:27):
Detroit plus one and a half at Minnesota, we had
it and this one was going so well for us
and for me, like we were all in on Detroit,
never waivered.
Speaker 3 (15:36):
That's the way to win.
Speaker 2 (15:37):
Man.
Speaker 3 (15:37):
Now you're figuring it out. Now we're figuring it out.
That's outstanding, gentlemen.
Speaker 1 (15:42):
Oh, I was on the over, never even close to
not covering. I was on Jared goff over twenty three
and a half completions. Crunner had given it out at
twenty two and a half. I barely missed the best
of the number and look, after a sluggish start, I
thrilled because the Lions they came roaring back.
Speaker 3 (16:09):
It has been years since the Detroit crowd has been
this excited about the Lions. Talk about restoring the roar.
Speaker 1 (16:17):
Listen to him.
Speaker 2 (16:19):
They were up twenty one to ten and a half.
Speaker 1 (16:21):
Jared Goff continued his hot streak of not even throwing incompletions.
True story, Simon at halftime, I bet Jared Goff seventeen
to one to win MVP.
Speaker 3 (16:36):
So go ahead and apologize to Detroit fans right now
because we are career enders this year. Chat everyone we
bet on dies.
Speaker 2 (16:43):
I mean, look we had It's not true.
Speaker 3 (16:44):
It's true we had. How bad luck we are, so
I wouldn't even said anything. You better be.
Speaker 2 (16:51):
Careful getting the number one seed gets hurt.
Speaker 3 (16:56):
Now everyone's gonna blame you. I'm gonna blame you. I'll
be honest.
Speaker 2 (17:00):
Yeah, I know you're right. Listen, We're about transparency, and.
Speaker 1 (17:03):
So we have to share what we do, both the
good and the bad. Right we talked about the Panthers.
We didn't do anything with the Panthers this week. Good
for us, Thank god you know, but if we're going to.
Speaker 2 (17:15):
Bet the Lions, and I'm going to.
Speaker 3 (17:16):
Bet it was so tempting too. I don't know about you,
but it got up to ten. That was tempting.
Speaker 2 (17:21):
Wow. Listen, we'll talk for a second.
Speaker 1 (17:26):
At the end of this about me panic texting you
this morning when Mason Rudolph.
Speaker 3 (17:32):
I get it, you know, I know. We're just trying
to find winners wherever we fucking can chat. I get it.
Speaker 2 (17:38):
Jesus all right.
Speaker 1 (17:39):
So then the lines were up twenty at seventeen. Yeah,
and I don't know about you, you can tell me
what you think. The last couple of weeks, we've just
been snaked it right the Giant Vangels.
Speaker 3 (17:49):
I was like, this is too easy.
Speaker 1 (17:51):
Yeah, it was not going to go our way.
Speaker 3 (17:54):
No Montgomery, as soon as he fumbled that when he
punched that out perfectly and it skip bounced right up
to that, I think it was either cornerback of linebacker,
just perfect, right in full step. He takes it for
a touchdown. I was like, Okay, at least it's on
the one, right, as long as they don't get the
two point or me and Chad will somehow cover this number.
They didn't get to two, and all I think to
(18:17):
myself was, please don't throw a pick six golf like,
because at the time, again we were staring at oh
and two and it's like, are we really about to
start another week? Ohen three? I know I can't handle
Chad certainly cannot handle another oh and three start to
a week, and yeah, you're MVP. Jared goff Man took
us right down the field and Gibbs too. Gibbs, what
(18:39):
a great game by the kid. I mean, the second
year player. You know, the port has disappeared. Gibbs is
not in his second year, and that was a huge
game by him, just because Montgomery had the injury. Then
he has the fumble and it's like, we need this
kid to have big plays for us, and he did.
And you know, our fear was the Hutchinson thing would
be a big deal. It wasn't. It wasn't right. They
(19:01):
got pressure at times. I mean again, they're like you said,
they're up twenty one ten at one point. But at
the end of the game, that's when you really felt it,
where it's like they're not getting to him and he
is making completions right now. But we got kind of
lucky too. That was a bad game overall by the
Vikings offense, so their defense kind of was up to
(19:24):
the task, and then it got away for them pretty
quick once. Like we talked about, once the Lions get
it going, you can't stop it. That's why I mean,
you love betting them right now. It's like it's all
clicking offensively. We didn't care they lost touchingson because offensively
it's all there. And we both agreed this number should
have been you know, Detroit minus one and a half
minus two. The line was fishy, it was off. You know,
(19:47):
the books took a stand. We disagreed with it, and
that's that's nice when those ones come through, cause it's
like I bet that one heavy. I know you bet
it heavy, and it's like what am I not seeing here? Again?
I still couldn't get over that number got to two
and a half a day and a half. It was
just a weird week where we all know the Vikings
are pretty good, but they're not that good and even
(20:08):
in this game they need a couple of weird bounces
just to get it to be a close one. So
once again, this Vikings team, the values gonna come back around.
We're gonna betting on them again. But right now I
still think they're probably still overvalued heading into this next
week because that game was once again so close. They
didn't get blown out, they kept it close once again,
and it's gonna be interest see what their number is
this upcoming week.
Speaker 1 (20:28):
Well, I was checking, and I'm glad I wanted to
talk about that. I will be very interested they're playing Tennessee.
Speaker 2 (20:36):
The number is one of the biggest numbers we've.
Speaker 1 (20:38):
Seen all season, and I do want to talk about
it when we get into that part of the show.
I'm glad you bring up Hutchinson because like that was
sort of the note that I wanted to end on
when reviewing this game that I put in the script,
because when we needed aidd Hutchinson to get pressure, the
(21:03):
Vikings were able to sort of get down the field
and get that field goal because the line just could
not get the pressure like he had the time at
the end of the game. It was not his best game,
but he was able to make the throws he needed
to make because no one was getting to him.
Speaker 2 (21:19):
So that is something to think about.
Speaker 1 (21:21):
It's why Jared Goff will probably win MVP when they
go fifteen and or sixteen and one. However many games
they play now, But that's something to think about, for sure. Yeah,
for sure. Right now there is reporting that Kyle Shanahan
(21:42):
is worried Brandon Ayuk has an aco injury. Fuck Kansas
City plus two and a half at San Francisco. All
week long, we had been debating are we going to
put in Green Bay? Are we going to put in
Kansas City? Are we going to put in Green Bay?
Are we going to put in Kansas City? As much
as you were adamant about the Giants, you were also
(22:03):
adamant about Kansas City, which I like was just having
a hard time wrapping my head around because I have
such belief in the Niners and because I've been so
worried about the lack of productivity from the Chiefs overall
on offense.
Speaker 2 (22:20):
Dude, you were spot.
Speaker 1 (22:23):
On standing oh for you, standing, oh for Patrick Mahomes
because it played exactly like you said it was going
to And why we have to bet the Kansas City Chiefs.
Speaker 3 (22:37):
Yeah, I just can't believe you haven't learned your lesson.
I thought forever you. I was humbled by that Ravens
Chiefs game last year in the playoffs. I told you
a million times there will never be a better team
and a better spot that could beat Mahomes with less talent,
Like that was such a bad Mahomes team playing against
the best, one of the best Raven teams I've ever
(22:58):
had on paper, and it was a lesson. It was
just like when he is a dog, you trust the
number and then we mixed in that whole thing about
and you read off the bye week. I know it
sounds corny, but it's like the guy is automatic after
the bye week, especially as a dog. So this was
going to be no matter what. This is like, this
is like the Rams game. This is one of my
(23:19):
biggest bets of the year. Hammered it all in, didn't
care this morning. I think it went up to two
and a half. Even better, Like when that's.
Speaker 1 (23:28):
A lie that you were a little nervous this morning.
Like when it got up to two and a half,
you're like, I'm all in on this.
Speaker 2 (23:35):
It's weird to me. There wasn't.
Speaker 1 (23:37):
I'm not saying there was any hesitation at all, but
you did make a note that it was weird.
Speaker 3 (23:44):
I thought he was dumb enough to bet six figures
against my Homes here it's like, you know, I know
a couple of guys who came on the other side,
and it's like you're the same suckers from the Super
Bowl that just we all have the same models. That's
why I keep saying to people, anyone that has a
model would make the forty nine ers favorite in this spot.
And I said it to you before the game. I
know they have the bad left tackle. I know their
(24:04):
number one receiver Rice is out. Like everyone knows Isaiah
pa Checko's not playing everything. Everyone knows all the negatives
with this Chiefs team. But I just kept saying, it
doesn't matter. It's just such a mismatch in pedigree and
coaching and those situations where it's like Spags and Reid
after a bye week. I mean, you saw it, all
(24:26):
those stupid wacky plays they run. I mean, how many
dumb catches did their tight end or third receiver have,
Like it just Reid is in his bag. It's incredible watching.
And we got the Mahomes fluke right, the Mahomes running
up the sideline, Mahomes picking up the third down so easily.
A game where I was terrified when I was fourteen twelve,
(24:46):
because again I had a lot of money on it.
It's like you felt the snowball right with the forty
nine ers. Everything was going their way. But Purdy, I
mean one of the worst games I've ever seen him had.
I mean this and that Ravens game, Like, yeah, you know,
two big games at home, and he kind of has melted,
like buttering both those games. Like I think you had
three picks in that Ravens game as well. He was
terrible today. So yeah, that's it's nice when it comes through.
(25:09):
But you know what makes me really happy, especially for
the show where it's like, you know we've had a
grind this year, is when we give out that boost
and you know our fans, you know, the week before
we're giving them Carolina Panthers money line with the Jets
money line. It's nice in a week we can give
them the Lines money line and the Chiefs money line.
(25:29):
It's like, we're not always assholes people. We're not always
going to make you bet the worst teams and make
you hit your life. We are going to give you
a little bit of chalk. So yeah, it's a nice hit.
And you came around on it, like I saw in
the app you bet the Chiefs. Yeah, before kickoffs, So
it's like I knew i'd break you eventually. It's just
the the trends were overwhelming, and then the matchup when
you really thought about it, it's just like, this is
(25:51):
a nice, nice play to this Chiefs team, But I
can't wait for next week because this is a cell
high as we can get on this Chiefs team.
Speaker 2 (25:58):
Well, we're gonna get that opportunity. And I wrote that.
Speaker 1 (26:02):
I wrote that line down to talk about I want
to give three examples that when Patrick Mahomes made these plays,
I thought to myself, I had your voice in my head.
This is why we bet Patrick Mahomes. This is making
your own luck. This is why things go his way.
At the end of the game, nine minutes left in
(26:23):
the first half, Kansas City up seven to three, just
outside the red zone. It's a third and medium. He's
pressured in the pocket, sidesteps the sack like does a
backhanded flip to an open receiver for a first down.
Three plays later, they go up fourteen to three, second
and seven from the thirty seven. Towards the end of
(26:45):
the third, he breaks contain runs for the first fakes
a pass. He is far beyond the line of scrimmage,
fakes it, the tackler is dumbfounded, he runs past him
and then no one tackles him against third three yards.
Speaker 2 (27:00):
That's going to be the play of the year.
Speaker 1 (27:03):
And that's why stupid media suckers are going to vote
for him for MVP instead of Jared Goff because of
that stupid play. And then here's why we hate betting
against Mahomes. It's third and eight with just under five.
They're bleeding the clock. He steps up to avoid the sack.
He has guys hanging on his waist, makes a perfect
(27:23):
nine yard pass to convert the first down. Kevin Burkhart,
who was announcing the game, it says out loud, you
just have to laugh because there's there's nothing you can
do about it. And I'm with you, I am converted.
That is why you have to do it the.
Speaker 3 (27:39):
Rest of your life though. That's what I'm saying, like
you need to just anytime he's a dog, even if
we fucking hate the spot, we just have to say
to ourselves long term until proven otherwise, like if he
loses four straight, that's what it would take to get
me off betting Mahomes as an underdog because it's so
rare and every time he does it, even today, right,
it was eighty percent of the tickets or something like that,
(28:00):
Evan told us. Unconvinced me didn't matter, like it don't matter.
The public note the secret's out. So yeah, that that
was fun. And like I said, it's a game we
desperately needed. We needed to be two and two here
tonight on the show. So thank god it came through.
Speaker 1 (28:17):
Public against the spread in the past two weeks so
far nineteen five and one.
Speaker 3 (28:23):
Fuck crazy, we're surviving this right now. We should be
getting zero for five to one for four weeks.
Speaker 1 (28:29):
We should but like I don't want to, like I
honestly like I don't want to praise ourselves. We don't
deserve it in any way. But I will say, like,
we do think a lot about this, and we don't
just blindly make the bets, like we look for the
spots and we know chalk can win. You've said chalk
(28:51):
can win. Like we're we're trying to be flexible and
adapt We're not just trying to be people who do
the same thing over and over because the trends say it,
like that's what we talk about every week. You don't
just bet the trend. We love the numbers that Evan
gives us, but they have to be part of an
overall philosophy in which you're paying attention to the situation.
(29:12):
You're paying attention to the matchups on the field, you're
paying attention to what you're seeing with your eyes, and
then the trends helped to sort of inform that they do.
Speaker 3 (29:21):
I view it as like we talk any more in
my whole job. I viewed as just trying to get
you not to step in a bunch of shit, and like,
that's that's hard because I have to try to I
need someone out there to get me now the step
of my own shit, like the Giants. But like that
green Bay number, it stanked to me all week. I
hate it all week, and I'm like, the minute that
game kicked off, I was like, thank fucking god, we
(29:41):
don't have this green Bay minus two and a half.
Like you just knew it was gonna either land on
the two or somehow Houston was gonna win. And of
course they landed either on one or two. And Sam
goes for us, dodging that Tennessee bullet because it's like
everything you said is true, right, that's a huge number
for that Bills team, and you know you're getting Mason
(30:01):
Rudolph at a will Levis price. Apparently they're both will Levis.
Don't matter if you switch the name on the back
of the jersey, They're just both equally terrible. So it
was a week where I feel fortunate to be tune
and two because there was just a lot of games
that were tempting and we luckily stayed away from them.
The only big miss for us is what I think
you agree on is just the Seahawks. We both liked
(30:23):
it three and a half. Yeah, I gave out the
money line. It was just a nice spot and a
nice team. I like, you know, my fear with that
one was just not that their defense is horrible, but
I just have a lot of questions about the Seahawks
defense coming to this game, and they stepped up right.
They played really well. So yeah, kudos to the Seahawks
(30:44):
and anyone that took him a three and a half.
That was a really nice number. It was never a
sweat stuck.
Speaker 1 (30:48):
You had him in the Sunday six pack for the
Action Network podcast, and I agree. I wish we had
talked about it this morning for even a second, like
we were both just mean.
Speaker 3 (30:57):
You mentioned it and I was like, I like it,
but I liked unfortunately, like the fucking Giants words sucks.
Speaker 1 (31:02):
You know, It's like it was the like the Falcons
have been so lucky this year they were due against
a good team to regress a little bit. Speaking of
the public, you know, we like the Jets.
Speaker 2 (31:13):
We talked about it all week.
Speaker 1 (31:15):
They are definitely the public side, although they also the
sharp side. Uh, tomorrow night we have Tampa Bay. We're
two and two right now on the contest. Tampa Bay
is not the public side at all. In fact, like
this number is going up, there are some places where
it's for it's been sitting at three and a half
a week. I will say it makes me a little
(31:37):
nervous right now because Mike Evans we expect him to play.
I saw in the latest injury report Vitevea is now questionable.
One of the main reasons we liked that game was
him able to control the line of scrimmage.
Speaker 3 (31:53):
So, I mean, if we really wanted to, we could
switch it out technically for Arizona Vida Vey's out, but
I don't know. I already can sell see us hating
ourselves for making that change.
Speaker 1 (32:02):
Yeah, we're gonna be UPSETI their way because either we're
going to keep it and lose, or we change it
out and they win. Yeah, there's no way, there's no way.
If we change it out, the Bucks don't cover. It's like, yeah,
we might as well put the mortgage on the Bucks
covering if we decide to change it out. We need
to look ahead to week eight. Couple of really interesting lines.
(32:25):
First one up, let's talk about Kansas City ten point
favorites right now on the road at Las Vegas raiders.
What are we gonna do here? We got a we
got we gotta buck the trend of road favorites. We
gotta buck the trend of road teams covering. We gotta
(32:47):
get ourselves to sack.
Speaker 3 (32:48):
Up divisional road favorites.
Speaker 2 (32:51):
Yeah, all of it. It sucks a double digit favorite.
Speaker 3 (32:56):
No, it's it's the brutal We have no choice. That's
what like again is tough about the show where it's like,
this is how we win long term. We have to
stick to it. We'd be fools not to take it.
It's an insane number. And you know again, shoot on
Minshew all you want people he was in the game
again at the end of the game. This this this game,
like they almost upset the Rams, and it's just, yeah,
(33:18):
he has one play where you are like, this is
the worst quarterback in the league, and then you'll have
a couple of throws where it's like, Okay, this is
why he's a stable backup. So it's another spot where
if it's the if it's Minshew in the ten, I
take it. If it's an O'Connell, I don't, but he
might have broken his thumb, so it's unlikely it's going
(33:38):
to be him. So you know, we love the Raiders
matchup historically against the Chiefs that you just always play
them tough and it's disgusting. But this is going to
be around money, money line round, Robin, I can tell
you that much. Like it's just long term. I'm sure
Evan will have some stats for us come Tuesday, you know,
in his breakdown. But in my lifetime, there's only one
(33:59):
team in this division that beats Mahomes and it's the Raiders.
And I think it's might have happened three times, but
each of those times I've gotten like a plus three
hundred plus four hundred on the Raiders money line. So yeah,
this is a gross number, but like you just said,
I'm taking it now. It can only it only goes down, right,
There's no way this goes higher. Just the way the
(34:19):
books have been this year, it's tough to see this
getting up to eleven or twelve.
Speaker 1 (34:25):
The other game we got to talk about at least
for a second. You just mentioned Detroit twelve and a
half point favorite at home against Tennessee.
Speaker 3 (34:35):
I mean, it's a shocking to say that's still too
low to me. Really, Yeah, the way that Lion's offense
is playing, get us the thirteen fourteen, that's where this
should be. The Titans are fucking horrible. They were up
ten to nothing on the bill, Yeah, yeah, and then
just got rolled. And you know that's that's the hard part,
(34:56):
chat is we're trying to bet on teams that we
don't think quit. Like there's a couple of games you
see see guys making them like that that Giants Eagles game.
A couple of Giants players made business decisions like they
could have made hits on guys and they pull up
or they don't make the tackle. Where it's like that's
something I'm always in the lookout for because that just
shows the view of the team right now. And the
(35:17):
Titans made a lot of business decision against that Bills team.
So yeah, I would, honestly, wait, I think that one
keeps going up and just detroitsa juggernaut right now in Tennessee.
You know, they're like the Patriots of they're one of
the worst teams in football.
Speaker 1 (35:28):
Raybon, it's being reported that Chris Raybon just put Cowboys
plus six and a half into the app. They're at
the Niners. That number I'm seeing in the app is
down to five and a half. I don't know if
you have a strong opinion here.
Speaker 3 (35:44):
I mean, yeah, it's six and a half. It's it's
it's a great number. But I'm with you, I don't.
I don't know where that number exists. I'm trying to
see and if any books have it still now. I
think he might have got the Early Line movie, because
I'm seeing almost every book now, You're right, is down
to five and a.
Speaker 2 (36:01):
Half, five and a half.
Speaker 3 (36:02):
It's a key number, like that's six. Six is a
big deal.
Speaker 1 (36:05):
A couple other that are interesting to me real quickly,
I want to run through before we get to yours.
Speaker 2 (36:09):
Sure, the Bears.
Speaker 1 (36:10):
Are one and a half point underdogs at the Commanders
right now, coming off a bye. It's weird to me
they're still dogs, not knowing the Jade and Daniels situation.
Speaker 3 (36:21):
Yeah, I one of my first bets it was actually two,
so it is moving a little bit that it's down
to one and a half. I just I can see
that easily flipping right. Yeah to making the Bears a favorite,
which is a little scary having him on the road
is a favorite. But that, you know, whatever you want
to say about that win today against Carolina. They're a
(36:45):
good team, but it's like Mariota at one point had
like three yards passing, They're up twenty nothing right Like
that was just what can we really take away from
that game and from Mariota. My view of Mariota is
he's a bad quarterback and your guys are looking for
Your guys defense is really good, like the Bears as
good as you know Williams is playing, the offense has
(37:05):
been playing. I still think the biggest mainstead of that
team right now the Bears is your guys defense. So
I'm with you on that one. I'd grabbed that now
plus one and a half you.
Speaker 1 (37:15):
Know what's interesting to me, Mariota. When he came in,
they showed his career stats. I was shocked that he
had twenty or thirty more touchdown passes in his career.
Then he has interceptions like I've always thought.
Speaker 2 (37:30):
He was so bad that.
Speaker 1 (37:33):
Oh wow, the Bears commanders is now I think off
the board because I'm not Oh, I'm not getting it
anywhere right now. And I wonder if that's because of
Jayden Daniels.
Speaker 3 (37:47):
Has to be because that Nuver didn't sound right anyway.
I just don't. I can't see them being a favorite
against this Bears team coming off of bye week.
Speaker 1 (37:56):
Yeah, I was trying to make the bet as you
were talking, and it's off the board.
Speaker 2 (38:02):
Seattle plus three at home against Buffalo.
Speaker 3 (38:10):
I don't know what to do with this number.
Speaker 2 (38:12):
What are you talking about it?
Speaker 1 (38:13):
I'm pinpointing numbers that like look a little bit interesting
to me. I don't think Buffalo is should be a
three point favorite on the road against Seattle yet.
Speaker 3 (38:23):
Me either. But at the same time, it makes sense
because it's Josh Allen Verstino Smith, right.
Speaker 1 (38:28):
Yeah, but Gino Smith is still a very accurate passer
who's going against a defense that has holes in the middle.
Speaker 3 (38:35):
I agree, So you know, I'll take the plus three
on Seattle. But this is easily a position I could
maybe change come Tuesday or Thursday, Like if this is
down to two minus two and a half with the Bills,
I could be tempted here, But you're right, right now,
the right number to take is Seattle plus three, Like
that's that's a good number and an inflated number with
(38:57):
what you just said. This again, my hesitation here is
the Seattle defense. Chat. They've just been so bad against
comparable offenses, and I know they stepped up today, but
I felt like a lot of that was self inflicted
wounds by the Atlanta team. And you're right though, like
this is a nice cell high spot right on this
Bills team, such a huge win. We've seen them struggle
(39:21):
as well against comparable offenses. So this is tough, but
I'll take the plus three with you right now. This
is easily a game I could flip on.
Speaker 2 (39:30):
I did find while you were talking.
Speaker 1 (39:32):
I did find the Bears plus one and a half
at one book still available. It was down at the
two other books here in Connecticut, last one and this
line is already moving Cincinnati minus two versus Philly at home.
Speaker 3 (39:50):
Yeah, another game where it's two teams I just don't
trust right now. Offensively, I'll probably end up on just
taking the under. But I would say you're if you're thinking,
here're the smart side is Cincinnati. So that's fair, Like,
that's probably a good number against this Eagles team that
you know, they're just they're not as good as their
(40:12):
record states right now. That is an interesting number though,
just hang in the two like they're literally just letting
us dictate where they're going to move this number.
Speaker 2 (40:22):
That's that's what surprised me.
Speaker 3 (40:24):
And so you don't see many two So I'll tell
you that much. You don't see many. You don't see
a lot of twos on Sunday night.
Speaker 2 (40:30):
No, all right, So.
Speaker 3 (40:35):
You want to get a game that immediately jumps out
to me, Colts plus six and a half against Houston,
Like again, I'm going to rush to bed it because
I do think it'll go up because Anthony Rusians not
played well. You know, people just think that Colts team
a little fraud in Houston played really well, probably should
have won that game. I just I don't know, there's
(40:56):
something about c J when he's a big favorite like this,
I always kind of want to take the other like
he just has teams play it close, and they kind
of keep teams in these games. So that's the number
that jumped out to me. It's like, I'll be patient.
I'll grab it now just because it's six and a half,
but I won't put a lot on it because it's
like this only goes up right teasers, parlays. Everything's gonna
coming on this Houston team. Yeah, I'm hoping I get
(41:18):
up to a seven. I'm taking it just in case
I'm missing something here. But you can get the Packers
minus five right now against the Jaguars.
Speaker 2 (41:30):
That's weird.
Speaker 3 (41:31):
In what world? The Jaguars are horrible? I don't care.
I mean, okay, they just blew out a team in England.
I know Evan's gonna have the stats too about these
teams not that don't take a bye week and they
just come back from anything play the following week in
the one PM games.
Speaker 2 (41:47):
Yeah, that number four and a half.
Speaker 3 (41:50):
Yeah, so like that's I told you, I'll take some
chalk every now and then. That's a nice chalk spot.
It feels like this is the week.
Speaker 2 (41:57):
Why would that number go down.
Speaker 3 (42:00):
I mean, honestly, there could be a bunch of different
reasons where maybe people think they saw some of the
Jaguars today like winning that game, But I'm totally selling them.
I just think they're such a bad, poorly coach team
right now. I can't see it. So I'll definitely grab
the minus four and a half.
Speaker 2 (42:17):
Cut anyone else.
Speaker 3 (42:20):
Yeah, this is the last one that really jumped out
to me there, just of like, Okay, is this a
line that you know I'm missing something here. It's because
they think because two is coming back, it's a huge
boost from Miami. You can get Cardinals plus two and
a half right now.
Speaker 2 (42:38):
I saw that, and to me, it's all about Tua.
Speaker 3 (42:40):
I know, I think there's been no guarantee he's going
to be back, so it's like an easy number to
take now if we need to, we can buy to
have for a position later. But watching the Miami team today,
they should have won that game in ten different ways
and they just couldn't do it because they just have
nothing to keep you position. I mean, I think Tyreek
(43:01):
Hill had ten yards receiving. Like it's just all bad
right now for that offense. Nothing's right and you know,
even if two it comes back, I mean, how much
will this number really move? It's coming off a major
head injury in his first start. The craziest, the highest
I can see this guy is minus three. So yeah,
from early bet I ticked the two and a half.
Speaker 2 (43:22):
Yeah, right now.
Speaker 1 (43:23):
The Dolphins, they went through Tyler Huntley, they ended with Tim.
Speaker 3 (43:27):
Boyle, ended with Tim Boyle. Yeah, which was that might
be the quarterback?
Speaker 2 (43:32):
That's that's no good. No, that's no good.
Speaker 1 (43:35):
All right, we've run through the games. We're going to
go deeper on Tuesday. Obviously we're rooting hard for the Jets.
Speaker 3 (43:44):
No, we didn't even talk Vikings minus three versus the Rams.
There's a lot of really fun games this will coming
week that we'd even touch.
Speaker 1 (43:50):
Yeah, rooting hard for the Jets tonight, rooting hard, hard,
hard for the Bucks tomorrow.
Speaker 2 (43:58):
We'd like to feel good on Tuesday.
Speaker 1 (44:02):
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