Sharp or Square - SHARP NFL BETS Week 11: Bears-Vikings, Seahawks-Rams, Broncos-Chiefs, Bills-Bucs, Lions-Eagles and more - The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock bet.

Speaker 2 (00:04):
We are part of the Volume podcast network.

Speaker 1 (00:07):
This is the show that makes the squares sharper and
makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chadmlman, I
am joined as always buying, my co host, my companion
Mike Caadre, my BFF, professional Better, Simon Hunter, Ella.

Speaker 2 (00:21):
Simn Chat.

Speaker 3 (00:23):
Are we doing?

Speaker 2 (00:25):
Felt extra excited to introduce you today.

Speaker 3 (00:30):
Fired up Week eleven?

Speaker 2 (00:31):
Week eleven. That doesn't fire me up. That just makes
me sad.

Speaker 1 (00:36):
It makes me sad that we're at week eleven, that
we're in double digit weeks, that we're staring down the
barrel of the end of the season.

Speaker 2 (00:43):
That just bums me out because I love football. This
is our week eleven episode.

Speaker 1 (00:48):
We're going to narrow down the options to get to
our final five. We're inching our way closer. Remember subscribe
to Sharper Square on YouTube, Apple Pods, Spotify. But first,
every single week, Simon, the Wise guys listen to the show,

(01:08):
and every single week they've got opinions about what we are.

Speaker 2 (01:12):
Saying, where we are leaning.

Speaker 1 (01:15):
They like to tell us what they think about everything
we discuss.

Speaker 2 (01:22):
So let's get right to it. It's time for sharp call.

Speaker 4 (01:27):
I have to answer this boat, all right, rain range
telephone range.

Speaker 2 (01:34):
Somebody said, maybe what you do?

Speaker 3 (01:37):
Man, It's been a crazy week chat.

Speaker 5 (01:40):
Honestly, a lot of calls about the different matchups and
obviously the conversation we had, and the biggest one I
got was our love for the Seattle. We're way off.
Got I get on the RAM. So that's deffin again.
We're gonna have to talk about.

Speaker 2 (01:52):
By the way, I'm so glad.

Speaker 1 (01:54):
I'm so glad because I was having a change of
heart yesterday and I like it when everything lines up
for us.

Speaker 5 (02:01):
Yeah, So definitely, definitely a game we're gonna to talk
about Rams. Another game we might be missing on, or
just I personally might be missing on Panthers. Tons of
pros love the Panthers there, so maybe I can just
avoid that game another game.

Speaker 3 (02:16):
Maybe I'll just avoid I really like the Bucks.

Speaker 5 (02:18):
Tons of pros I've talked tough, really liked the Bills,
and they have some good arguments about why they like
that spot. But maybe we'll we'll go against them together chat.
I don't know, we'll see with that game. But a
lot of back and forth about just the pros loving
the bills there, and that's what's holding that number because
I thought this number before, By this show today, it's
still five and a half. So love to talk about

(02:38):
that one. Games that I think we got a lot
of love and agreeance on our Cleveland game.

Speaker 3 (02:44):
I mean that game. We could have just walked into
it as well. I know that full well.

Speaker 5 (02:50):
We didn't know Lamar had a bad knee, so we
took a number.

Speaker 3 (02:54):
Took a spot. Hopefully you know Lamar is all right?

Speaker 5 (02:58):
What am I then missing this game for me chat though?
And we have an eight and a half because this
would definitely drop four and a half five or maybe
even three and a half. Fee is out tons of
love for that one Denver as well. It's a professional love.
Uh not a shaka there. Another game, actually, I was
pretty shocked. I thought it was going to be a
tons and tons of Eagles love. That Lin's Eagles game

(03:19):
is pretty split. I know some pros on both sides.
So that number has touched three at a couple of places
and then immediately got hit back to two and a half.
So a game I thought it would be all pros
and all public really split, right, public would be all
over the lines. Pros would be on Eagles. It's not
really looking like that that way. So interesting game and
another game I'm kind of left on my low some chat.

(03:40):
I thought the pros would be all over this Raiders game.
It just might be me and three other guys. I
don't think they trust this Raiders team too much love
for that one. Maybe it's just the Monday game. But
not too many opinions either way on that one, honestly, so,
I've had a couple ask about that. Why do I
love it so much? It really is just about the
number and that Dallas team. But I get why people

(04:00):
are so weary in this matchup.

Speaker 2 (04:03):
All right, let's get into it.

Speaker 1 (04:06):
Let's first talk about Cincinnati at Pittsburgh, which no one
has mentioned. The line's been generally holding at five and
a half bumped down five at hard Rock bet, but
I'm seeing other places where the juice is indicating it's
going to go up to six. I'm honestly surprised and
a little bit disappointed that it hasn't been more aggressively

(04:30):
moving to five like we're seeing at hard Rock. Obviously,
I bet into it at five and a half. To me,
it entirely comes down to the offensive weapons for the Bengals.
And I know everyone's going to say everything they want
to about the Steelers.

Speaker 2 (04:47):
Could be a bounce back spot. Aaron Rodgers played terrible.

Speaker 1 (04:50):
Maybe the line's deflated a little bit because of how
bad the Steelers did against the Chargers. Maybe Aaron Rodgers
and Pat Fryarmouth and Jalen Warren can get right against
a terrible, terrible, terrible Bengals defense. We know how bad
the Bengals defense is. We've also seen how good the
Bengals offense can be, especially against a suspect defense, and

(05:12):
right now the Steelers secondary is sus.

Speaker 2 (05:17):
Like it's just terrible.

Speaker 1 (05:20):
How are they going to defend against an exceptional group
of receivers and Joe Flacco, who he's ageless.

Speaker 3 (05:33):
Yeah, and we were both a little weird this one,
and we just understand the line.

Speaker 5 (05:37):
That's another game. We just thought it would make more
sense at three three and a half. Like we said,
it was just two weeks ago. This Bengals team upset
and beat the Steelers team. And Steelers are banged up
like they're not healthy. They have a bunch of injuries
in a bunch of key positions as well.

Speaker 3 (05:51):
Bengals like you just had coming off of bye week.

Speaker 5 (05:54):
I mean, I thought it was funny Joe Burrow who's
rushing back, which is really impressive for him, but that's
not going to fix any of their issues. Like this
Bengals team, they literally have been scoring more points, averaging
more points with Flacco at the helm than than Joe.
It doesn't matter. He's just he's not to fix this
this defense.

Speaker 3 (06:14):
It's just a trocia.

Speaker 5 (06:14):
So I agree with you. The number makes sense. You know,
we'll grab it and hope for a back door. Maybe
Joe will have the lead and the back door will
come from Rogers and we still have a key number
above three and that won't matter for us.

Speaker 3 (06:27):
But I thought it was interesting looking at Zach Taylor
the head coach.

Speaker 5 (06:31):
What can we take away from him and these type
of situations after a bye week? Is he a good coach?
Does you get guys prepared? He is one and four
against the spread bag.

Speaker 2 (06:40):
I don't expect anything. Taylor.

Speaker 3 (06:43):
I mean, Zach Taylor man just.

Speaker 5 (06:46):
Who some people it's crazy, So he's I mean, I
can't blame him. The offense has been good with Flacco
a lot of stuff, but apparently it's just been all
matchup base. So the last time they played, Joe Flacca
made fun of the Spitfik team. He said he'd even
know the bank those offense. They were just running the
same zone scheme over and over again. So I'm looking
for reasons to avoid it because I just don't this

(07:06):
number feels sofficient to me. I'm gonna join you. I'm
gonna bet the I'm gonna bet the Bengals. But I
have not made this one of my bigger best this week.

Speaker 3 (07:13):
I just I don't know. Something just seems awful.

Speaker 5 (07:15):
I just can't believe we're getting two extra free points
here on this Bengals teams. He said, Steelers defense is
just as bad, just as bad as the Spangles defense.

Speaker 3 (07:23):
So really weird line.

Speaker 1 (07:24):
Yeah, it's a very strange line. Also, not that it
matters one where the other. Trey Hendrickson doubtful to play
this week with that injured hip, even after the bye week.
When you say that about Zach Taylor, I'm just like,
I don't care like he's.

Speaker 3 (07:39):
So he just knows altrocious he is. He comes out
of a bye week, He's won and four against divisional opponents.

Speaker 1 (07:47):
Yeah, but he's also atrocious win they don't have a
buy Like, I'm not betting on Zach Taylor in this.

Speaker 3 (07:52):
Game, even more so.

Speaker 5 (07:57):
Straight up as a dog in the spot as an
underdog losing it by combined score of eighty five to
twenty three.

Speaker 2 (08:05):
Yeah, but here's the thing. Honestly, I'm just.

Speaker 3 (08:07):
Trying to make it so we're protecting you. I don't
know for to make it one of our five, but
I don't.

Speaker 2 (08:11):
Know that we're going to make it one of our
five either.

Speaker 1 (08:12):
But Zach Taylor just never entered the equation for me
in this is similar to what that Mike Tomlin didn't
enter the equation even though you know, historically we'd want
to fade Mike Tomlin as a relatively big favorite at
home in the division that that has tended to be
where he hasn't coached as well, right and where the
team has had a little bit of a letdown and
they played down to the level of their opponent.

Speaker 3 (08:36):
This is entirely It was actually good here for Tomlin.

Speaker 5 (08:40):
Like historically, him playing a divisional opponent after a bad
loss on the road coming home as a favorite, he
actually does pretty well.

Speaker 3 (08:45):
But I agree with you. I just do not like Ben.
Tomlin is a big favorite.

Speaker 4 (08:48):
Guys that played for me. They can tell you. One
of my sayings I got a lot of sayings is
don't seek comfort. I realized if you're going to have
special outcomes, that you got to be comfortable. Being uncomfortable
appreciating my resume is seeking comfort.

Speaker 2 (09:03):
Joe Flacco was playing so well.

Speaker 1 (09:05):
Joe Burrow's coming back early because he's worried about his job.

Speaker 2 (09:08):
That's what's going on here. And I think we both know.

Speaker 5 (09:10):
That's another Flacco stat He's nine to four in his
career against his president underdog against Tomlin. So he always
performs well against Tom and Donlin even said it so much.

Speaker 3 (09:19):
There was the boogeyman.

Speaker 5 (09:20):
He could not believe he had to face this guy
again and getting him traded in his own division.

Speaker 1 (09:23):
Yeah, that includes when they played against each other in
pee wee football, because they're basically the.

Speaker 2 (09:27):
Same age.

Speaker 1 (09:29):
Houston at Tennessee Simon, we said we were waiting until
this number got below seven. It took him minute, but
at lanted below seven yesterday Wednesday afternoon, middle of the afternoon,
and it's pretty much six and a half painted across
the board minus one ten. No official word on CJ,

(09:50):
but he did not practice. The Texans do not expect
him to play this weekend, so this number was moving
based on Davis Mills.

Speaker 2 (10:00):
Jeffrey Simmons is hopeful he will be back.

Speaker 1 (10:05):
I did bet the Texans at minus six and a
half because I think they might only have to score
one touchdown to cover this number. The defense is so
good that offense is so bad. There's there's virtually no
evidence that this offense can get the ball in the

(10:26):
end zone often enough against this defense to to cover
less than a touchdown.

Speaker 3 (10:34):
To me, yeah, I'm on it as well.

Speaker 5 (10:37):
It's the only polems I have for this one is
it's tons of tons of pros are on this Titans team,
and of course that's.

Speaker 2 (10:43):
Why it moved. No one's no one in the public
is betting.

Speaker 5 (10:50):
It came out eating practice on Wednesday or Tuesday, I
believe because it was concussion.

Speaker 3 (10:53):
I think that's when it moved to six and a half.

Speaker 1 (10:56):
It started moving Tuesday night to six and a half
because that's when I bet it, and by today it
was six and a half across the board.

Speaker 5 (11:02):
So, like you know, the fact that it's it's it's
more likely now that teaches out adds to that, you know,
you're looking at the early money here and it is
on Tennessee, so it looks like the public is joining them,
which makes sense. It's Davis Mills on the road as
a six and a half point favorite.

Speaker 3 (11:18):
So I get where they're coming from.

Speaker 5 (11:20):
I think we both agree we're taking this position for
the fact that we trust this defense but.

Speaker 3 (11:25):
Interesting and interesting number movement.

Speaker 5 (11:27):
I don't want to tell people to bet it or
hammer now because it could drop. If it is official
CJ is out, maybe this does get the four four
and a half, like this number.

Speaker 3 (11:35):
Does keep dropping.

Speaker 2 (11:36):
There's no way.

Speaker 5 (11:38):
I know I thought that too, but I just I
was shocked and moved off to seven once the CJ
concussion no practice because I was like, I was not
expecting him to play this week anyway.

Speaker 1 (11:48):
So yeah, but if it was going to move, it
would have already been. It would have been a much
more aggressive move in the past twenty four hours from this.

Speaker 3 (11:56):
Is a fair books.

Speaker 5 (11:59):
Because it's gone under the key number now, where like
they're taking tons and tons of bets and I'm sure
moneyland parlays and teasers now in this Texans team, but
they're fine with that position because they're in the back
of round. I think they're saying, well, we think it's
probably gonna be Davis Mills. That's why I thought it
was big. They moved off the seven. So yeah, I'm
just I'll be patient with this one. We'll see where
it goes. But like you said, we're both in six
and a half. It's just the more I think about it,

(12:23):
it's like the me and Check be forced to watch
this game and bet on this game. I don't know
if we're gonna have to make this one of those
games because I just how much I love the number
with Davis Mills.

Speaker 1 (12:32):
Well, we're of course going to be watching it. It'll
be in the multiview.

Speaker 3 (12:35):
There's no there's no chance.

Speaker 5 (12:37):
I'm not like, there's so many good games I.

Speaker 1 (12:41):
Know, But the problem is we have money. I'm not
saying it's going to be in the contest. I'm just
saying we have money on it. At this point. I
know that in the early windows, I got five screens
I can watch on. I'll watch the five games that
are in the contest and that we have bets on,
and I'm gonna have it on this game.

Speaker 3 (13:01):
Let's say if I was at home, I'd probably put
on the iPad. I won't even put on the TV.

Speaker 2 (13:04):
I think this game will probably be on my laptop.

Speaker 3 (13:06):
Yeah, that sounds right.

Speaker 2 (13:07):
We'll see, we'll see.

Speaker 1 (13:09):
I mean, I know I can know for a fact
Baltimore Cleveland's going to be on there. I know that
Cincinnati Pittsburgh's going to be on there. So we'll see. Simon,
I want to talk about the Green Bay Packers as
seven point favorites at the New York Giants, because on
Tuesday we talked about the Packers and you added slightly

(13:30):
into the Packers. I was wondering why, like we would
even try to make a decision. We didn't know who
was going to be quarterback. Now we know, famous Jameis
Winston is starting for the Giants on Sunday. Russell Wilson
has been demoted to third string, and Russell Wilson is

(13:51):
now doing videos on Cameo. He's made three hundred million
dollars in his career. He's doing videos on cameo. Yesterday,
at his presconf friends as the number one quarterback as
QB one, Jameis Winston gave a virtuoso performance, including a
Broadway musical interlude. Matt Mitchell roll it.

Speaker 3 (14:16):
I'm want fans to know that I'm gonna do my best.
You know, obviously I'm gonna have.

Speaker 6 (14:20):
Fun, but I'm gonna execute, have a surgical execution, and
just and just play ball, man, Like this is something
I've been doing since I've been four years old. Now
I just get to do it in the greatest city
in the world. I'm gonna be saying with my son,
what's the greatest city in the world. Yeah, that's a
Hamilton reference to now I don't know, and a ten
year reunion.

Speaker 1 (14:41):
Yeah, I mean, come on him acknowledging Hamilton's ten ten
year anniversary.

Speaker 2 (14:48):
He's a legend. He's a legend.

Speaker 1 (14:50):
It's like, Jamis is everything you love about betting. You
and I talk about this all the time. You love
the roller coaster of betting. I love knowing that I've
got the win in the first quarter and then relaxing
the rest of the day. I want to be right.
I don't want the emotion. You want the emotion. Jamis
is your type of QB.

Speaker 3 (15:12):
Dude.

Speaker 1 (15:13):
It's like, all the betting, how do you not put
in a small taste on Jamis. He is the full
experience on Sunday, the oh no throws, the oh yes throws,
the holy shit throws, signing Jamis a little taste.

Speaker 2 (15:31):
Come on.

Speaker 5 (15:33):
Yeah, The biggest sin in life is that James is
not like a top five quarterback in this week. It
just for he has so much personality we just don't
get from quarterbacks, right. Most quarterbacks are just robots, which
they should be right, they're protecting their brand. They don't
want to say anything that gets put on the board
and used against.

Speaker 3 (15:49):
Blah blah blah.

Speaker 5 (15:49):
But Jamis is just so free and just not negative
and just good vibes, like he never says the wrong things,
even when he's talking crazy. It's it's great, like he
just you never know where he's gonna go with it.
So yeah, I I just thought this was a green
Bay spot. We've talked this year, this green Bay team.

(16:11):
They're on a historical run right there. I think the
first team in like twenty years to be zero to
five as a seven point favorite against the spread. They
get to cover the season as a seven point favorite.
So the public's on the Giants. The broser they joning them.
This is gonna be a huge, huge bet all the teasers,
all the money line, partly as this Packers team, because

(16:32):
everyone's like me, They just I can't see the Packers
the three games in a row. So maybe I'll just
avoid it now, because like you said, Jamis could either
lose this game by thirty or win this game.

Speaker 3 (16:40):
Outright if he had such a wild Gay's passing the ball.

Speaker 2 (16:43):
Yeah, yeah, such a wild car.

Speaker 5 (16:45):
I just I don't know if he has a weapons
chat Like in other places where he's done stuff, he's
actually had guys on the outside that can make plays.
He does not have that in this scenario. And he's
going against a really good defensive front. So I'm still
I'm still on the Packers.

Speaker 3 (16:59):
But I get it.

Speaker 5 (17:00):
I get you're coming from. You want to go on
the Giants and it's fun. I just I can't. I
can't do it.

Speaker 1 (17:05):
I just want to bet as bet put us on Jamis,
Like he's won us so much money over the years, though,
and then and then.

Speaker 2 (17:13):
He's lost us so much many over the years.

Speaker 1 (17:15):
Last year we had a pretty good run of like
betting on Jamis at the right time and betting against
Jamis at the right time, And this just feels like
a bet on Jamis and I can't.

Speaker 2 (17:26):
I'm kind of bummed that he stayed in the.

Speaker 1 (17:28):
NFL, because I think he'd be so good as a broadcaster, analyst,
full time social media influencer, whatever it is. Oh goodness, Simon,
I'm just this is going to be on the TV
just to watch Jamis implode or blow up the Packers
either way. All right, let's talk about Tampa Bay at Buffalo.

(17:49):
I mentioned this the other day. I think we've underestimated
how much Bucky Irving means to the Buccaneers because we've
continued to want to bet on the Buccaneers and have
bet the Buccaneers, including last week against the Patriots. So
I looked it up because it's like it just we
believed so much in Baker ball.

Speaker 2 (18:09):
Have we leaned too much into that.

Speaker 1 (18:12):
The Buccaneers were running the ball thirty eight percent of
the time with Bucket Irving. Now they're doing just twenty
five percent of the time, and that impacts everything, Right,
they have fewer explosive ten plus yard runs, but also
it just changes the play action dynamic for Baker. It's
much less effective, and I think that's having an impact

(18:35):
on the entire game. It's like when you hurt your
toe and it hits the whole kinetic chain. I think
that that is really a big issue for them. We
were wondering why the wise guys might be all over
the Bucks. I don't know all the reasons, but I
look at this and it makes a little more sense
to me right now.

Speaker 5 (18:56):
Honestly, it sounds really simple. But this Bucks team, to me,
the big difference has been Baker doesn't hasn't scrambled in
about three weeks now, and if you look back, he
took a really bad shot in that win against the
forty nine ers, he hasn't. He didn't have one rushing
attemp against Detroit, that single rushing attempt against the Saints,

(19:18):
and same against New Orleans and.

Speaker 3 (19:20):
Remember all those insane wames earlier in the year.

Speaker 5 (19:23):
Yeah, so maybe that's what we're missing here, is he
sustained an injury. He doesn't want to be taking hits
like that, scrambling outside the pocket, and it's been a
difference to their offense. You need that Baker magic for
it to work for this team. So you know there
are some stats too. We talked about this would be
a spot Raffer Josh Allen. They just got embarrassed on

(19:45):
the road as a huge favorite, and it feels like
it's a unique spot, right, It's not often Josh Allen
goes on the road as a favorite and loses well
by double digits. And when I looked at it, it's
it's pretty alarming. He's after loss like that. He's six
and three against the spread, which isn't that drastic, but
he's covering by eleven points per game in those matchups,

(20:07):
so he tends to bounce back. Josh Allen these matchups,
and you know, if they have a game where they
score sixteen points or less in Josh Allen's career, the
following game, he's thirteen and six against the spread. So
we've just seen time and time again he tends to
bounce back. I had tons of people send me trend
numbers about Baker because they were agreeing with us about
our love for Baker. That's why it's like, can we

(20:29):
still get there? But I'm just alarmed that he has
not run. That was something that really jumped out to me.
It's like, is there just something we don't know because
he's not looked the same since that forty nine ers game,
and I thought, you know what, that's just football, right,
you have lows, ups and downs. He's just not I
thought he'd maybe get right after that bye a week,
but you saw against New England he didn't really run
the ball, he didn't use his legs like he usually does. So, yeah,

(20:53):
they're just those type of things jumped out to me. Obviously.
If you want to hear some Baker stats as a dog,
he's fifteen to four or against a spread in his career.
We know Baker's just he covers as a dog. So
I don't know what you want to do in this one.
It's it's a unique spot, right, it's Baker awful loss
now is a dog on the road again. Another stat

(21:14):
at him is a dog in the SAX spot seventeen
and seven against the spread when he's off the loss
even better last five seasons he's twelve and three.

Speaker 3 (21:24):
This is exactly pow.

Speaker 2 (21:25):
Yeah, I want to bet Baker here. I know I do.
At five and a half. The numbers in my notes
are we worried about Baker.

Speaker 5 (21:32):
That's what I'm trying to get us here.

Speaker 1 (21:34):
You're making a good point. I did the research yesterday.
I think they're a different team, even though without Bucky Irving,
we're seeing that in the trends. It could be a
combination of the lack of play action and Baker not
running the ball because he could be injured. All of
that seems to be missing from this Buccaneers team right now.

(21:55):
To me, it's it's not so much a bet on
the Bills. It's going to be a bet on the
box and how comfortable can we get on this team.

Speaker 2 (22:05):
It just feels to me like.

Speaker 3 (22:06):
So I can't convince you to back Josh Allen. Here
you the Josh Allen stats.

Speaker 5 (22:12):
I mean, it just seems like I know, I don't
trust I just don't trust his Bills team either.

Speaker 3 (22:15):
That's my issue. It's tough.

Speaker 2 (22:17):
This defense is just it's not very good.

Speaker 5 (22:20):
I know, but if Baker's not Baker, can you really
take advantage of an attack him. So it's a hard
game for me where it's like I wanted to be
on the Bucks. I thought I was going to be
on the book Sunday though I was me on Tuesday,
and I just I have looked into it and I
agree it's there's something missing with this book.

Speaker 3 (22:36):
See, I really do think it's that Russian ability of Baker.

Speaker 1 (22:39):
It's one of those weird games. Yeah, it's one of
those weird games where we this would be a smash
smart spot for us on a team that we almost
always love to bet on a quarterback. We always love
to bet. I don't know that we know enough yet.
I think we need to keep looking into it. I
haven't bet this game at all. I've tried to be patient.

Speaker 5 (22:58):
I'm not trying to work people, honestly is what I do.
And I'm like, I can't get anything. I can't get
anything about if he's had an injury, if he's been
resting an injury, because they haven't put anything on the injury
port either, so nothing's come out.

Speaker 3 (23:09):
So I don't know.

Speaker 5 (23:10):
But I just when someone brought that up, I looked
at it, go, oh my god, I've not even noticed that.
I have not noticed because you get sacked so much.
In my mind, I thought he's been running and scrambling,
but he has and he hasn't gained a yard in
three games.

Speaker 2 (23:21):
That's that's so weird.

Speaker 1 (23:22):
And you know now that you think about it, Like,
especially against the Patriots, there were a couple of times
where the pocket just cratered that would have been a
Baker escapes and he didn't. It just he sort of
just collapsed in the pocket.

Speaker 2 (23:38):
That's interesting.

Speaker 1 (23:40):
We got to keep talking about this one. I don't
think we can commit to it one way or the
other yet. I want to bring up.

Speaker 2 (23:44):
The Chargers and the Jags.

Speaker 1 (23:46):
We talked about the Jags the other day at plus
three at hard Rockets moved down to two and a half,
so we're seeing professionals come in on the Jags. I
really left it in only because isn't this our week
to fade the Chargers?

Speaker 2 (23:59):
Right?

Speaker 1 (23:59):
We'd want to say, oh my god, the Chargers looked
great last week, let's bet them, But then we know
we really should fade them. We talked about liking the Jags.
I just wanted to know from your opinion, are you
feeling strongly about the Jags. I am not feeling strongly
about the Jags, but I could understand if you did,

(24:19):
and I would be persuadable.

Speaker 2 (24:21):
You know why, Simon, you know why I'm agreeable.

Speaker 5 (24:26):
I think we both agree it's just about the number, right,
Like at the three, I think we both kind of
like taking the Jags of the dog here. But I
just maybe maybe it's just the Trevor Lawrence thing. I
just I hate having money on them and I don't
trust them.

Speaker 3 (24:42):
So at the three I like it for two and
a half.

Speaker 5 (24:44):
I'm just there's no way I'm going to make people
invest money into this game. And the Herbert side, I
know a couple of pros I taking a position on
them in this game because they like the match with
them in the sense that this Jaguars defense just I
mean went through an absolute ringer the week before. Historically
these defenses fail the next week. Right, If you have

(25:06):
a defense that gives a twenty points or more, it's
never good to follow in the weekend. Even more so,
you know a team like that, how do they react
to it? A first year head coach, how does you
react to giving up twenty nine.

Speaker 3 (25:18):
Points in the fourth quarter of Davis Mills the week before? Chad.

Speaker 5 (25:21):
So, we have a lot of stuff we've been into
here situationally that I don't love. And when you dive
into all the trends and anything like that, it's historically
a terrible spot for Trevor Lawrence.

Speaker 2 (25:30):
And what isn't what isn't a terrible spot right.

Speaker 5 (25:34):
Because he just his whole career has been that way,
So yeah, I'm just very uneasy about it.

Speaker 3 (25:38):
But I both I think we both agree.

Speaker 5 (25:40):
It's like this is usually where we go against the Chargers,
but the Joe Alt things kind of making a fuzzy
form where it's like it's making me love the Jaguars.
I'm trying to talk myself out of it. There's other
games I should have my money and don't go too
heavy on it.

Speaker 3 (25:52):
Two.

Speaker 5 (25:53):
Like we said, hard Rock right now is mine two
and a half. To me, that's a Chargers line. If
you want to take a position and I won't fault you,
But I'm going to be on the Jags play three.

Speaker 3 (26:00):
That just feels like a smarter side.

Speaker 5 (26:02):
But I just don't know how Herbert's going to be
against a front and in a matchup that offensively. I think,
you know, if Trevor Lawrence can move the ball downfield,
they should be great matchup. But he might be down
his number number two receiver again, Chad, it's a big deal.

Speaker 1 (26:18):
Right Brian Thomas Junior might not be playing. Travis Hunter
is out for the season now with a knee injury.
Who could have seen a slightly built two way player
not being able to make it through the season. That
seems crazy to me. Yeah, he's a TONI he's a tony.
There is a lot of social media sleuthing going on,

(26:39):
a lot of memes on Twitter of Liam Khne just
looking as disgusted as we are by Trevor Lawrence. The Internet,
for all its failings, sometimes is right. And you gotta
wonder if all the rumblings about Liam Kohne just not

(27:00):
being able to move on with Trevor Lawrence starts to
become a reality, is there a little bit of truth
in the memes? That's what I'm asking.

Speaker 5 (27:15):
Again, It's just year one, so I just can't I
can't overact too much to it. Yeah, if Trevor Lawrence
doesn't grow and improve this offseason in this offense, and
next year he's still doing these mistakes, I could see
ownership taking Liam's side over Trevor lawrence side. Like they've
given Trevor enough time in years you've seen his offense.
It works in my opinion, like the run block and

(27:36):
all of it. I think the offensive scheme works. I
just don't know if the quarterback is the right piece.

Speaker 2 (27:42):
I wonder if he'd rather have Mac Jones right.

Speaker 3 (27:44):
Now, donate that got him on the cheat right.

Speaker 1 (27:49):
He had him, they had him, and he left. Maybe
he'd be the better option for this offense. Hey, listen,
I'm talking about Mac Jones. He's a quarterback in the
NFC West. The two top teams in the NFC West
are the Seattle Seahawks and the Los Angeles Rams. Simon,
We're gonna have a deep conversation about this one because

(28:12):
the Los Angeles Rams are going to be our brass
balls Better the Week presented by hard Rock Bett.

Speaker 5 (28:21):
You know what it takes brass balls there.

Speaker 1 (28:27):
I know we had a long conversation on Tuesday about Seattle,
and I think we both have sort of come to
the conclusion that we like the Rams here.

Speaker 2 (28:36):
For me, it was about some of the research I did.

Speaker 1 (28:39):
On the matchups and the schemes despite seattle defensive prowess,
and how the Rams can take advantage of that. You
got a lot of blowback from the wise guys, and
this one might be I'm not going to say bullying.

Speaker 2 (28:51):
You, but effectively debating.

Speaker 1 (28:54):
You, positioning you, changing your mind, moving you off your opinion.
Tell me what you heard, why it change for you.
I will share with you some of what I've researched
and why it changed for me, But we both came
to that independently.

Speaker 5 (29:09):
Yeah, I just honestly my model like Seattle and I
like Seat. Just the way they've been playing, I thought
this would be a great matchup for them, But like
you said, the more you dive into it, there's some weaknesses.
Let's see how defense that we know the Rams will exploit,
and it's a unique game in a matchup, and it's
it's I'm happy we have some strong opinions on it
because it is probably the best game of the week

(29:30):
And early in the week I was like, am I
really going to bet heavy on one side or the
other end this game? Because it's such two really good teams.
I mean, I think Evan had this amazing stat. It's
the first time in NFL history we've had two teams
matchup week ten or later that are both seventy seven
percent against the spread and straight up matched up this late.

(29:53):
So it's really unique where it's like two teams. Betters
have loved profit it off heavily this season. Got to
pick a spot. Now, I thought most books would be split.
It's honestly really heavy the money towards this Ram side,
and we've seen some three and a half spop up,
So if you do like the Rams, I would grab
it now. I do think it could get the three
and a half by game time, just because so much
professional money is coming to the Rams here. And it's

(30:17):
really about McVeigh. Right in his career against Seattle, he's
just done so well and it's we always saw these
divisional teams these matchups. Certain teams just know how to
play against certain defenses. And it doesn't matter that they
had a regime change for Seattle, he still owned them
since that change.

Speaker 3 (30:35):
So just a.

Speaker 5 (30:36):
McVeigh in his career twelve and five against the spread
against Seattle and since twenty nineteen he's eleven and two
against the spread. So just interesting. McVeigh has just dominated
this franchise for so long now. And with Stafford, I
was like, okay, is there a bump with the Stafford
because this is by far the best quarterback he's had.

(30:57):
In that run, He's five and oh straight up one
and one against the spread against Seattle, covering by them
with seven points per game.

Speaker 3 (31:03):
So Staffords just dominated this matchup. And you know, I
agree with you.

Speaker 5 (31:10):
I probably overrated this Seattle defense a little too much
because they really have not faced a juggernaut path of quarterbacks.
They've had an easy kind of go here. So I
think this will be a true test for them. And
we're getting a great number with the Rams team that's
just playing insanely well. One last amazing stat I saw
Evan post.

Speaker 3 (31:28):
Again.

Speaker 5 (31:29):
I love stupid stats like this because it's just when
you really look into it, it's actually pretty smart. Since
twenty twenty four, when the Rams have seven games and
they commit three penalties or less in those seven games,
the following game they were seven to zero against the
spread in that matchup, it's zero penalties last week.

Speaker 2 (31:46):
Why is that smart though? What is that telling you?
What's the correlation there?

Speaker 5 (31:50):
That they're just playing sound football, which is like you see,
all these other teams are super sloppy right now, Like
that we joke that Raiders game the Raiders had nine penalties.
You don't really win like that, especially when you only
score seven points. The flip side, the Rams are putting
up thirty five points and against a divisional opponent, Evan
zero penalties on the road.

Speaker 3 (32:09):
That's just really impressive to me.

Speaker 5 (32:10):
It just shows when McVeigh, you know, he gets these
guys playing at a high level and they're in sync
like this, they just keep it rolling. So I just
love that stack because just shows this team is just
polly In tuned right now with everything.

Speaker 3 (32:21):
And you know, like we've been saying the.

Speaker 5 (32:23):
Rams fluky fluky loss against that Eagles team, and you know,
they could easily be the number one seed right now NFC.

Speaker 3 (32:30):
They've been playing like the best for sure.

Speaker 1 (32:32):
So a couple other things to keep in mind. You
just mentioned the money coming in on on the Rams.
The public is all over Seattle like this is a
pros Joker game. It is a they are the public
dog here. That's number one.

Speaker 2 (32:50):
Number two.

Speaker 1 (32:51):
You mentioned some softness in the Seahawks defense where they
are worst, and they're not bad at much, but where
they are worst is defending against tight ends. And all
of a sudden, the Los Angeles Rams have become the
highest tight end usage team in the NFL. They're going
four deep sometimes on tight ends. So we've been seeing

(33:14):
that and it's super exciting to watch, but it's also
devastating if you've bet against the Rams. I don't want
to be on the other side of the Rams and
thirteen personnel and Matthew Stafford against a team that has
not been playing very well against tight ends and in
a game where something small like that is what the
difference is going to be, right, It's going to be,

(33:34):
you know, tied game weight. And the Rams have the
ball with ninety seconds left from their own twenty yard line,
and Matthew Stafford finds Parkinson down the scene for thirty five.

Speaker 2 (33:47):
Yards and gets them into field goal range.

Speaker 1 (33:48):
Like that could easily happen, and that could be that
weakness could be the difference in the game. And I
don't mind fading the public in this spot.

Speaker 3 (33:57):
Agree.

Speaker 5 (33:58):
And DeVante Adams not practice this week, but he got
interview and he basically said, like I'm gonna be out
there and be playing. I'm not going to miss this game,
So don't be worried. If Divided it doesn't practice all week.
I think you'll I'll still play, even I believe you
is a bad hip, but I believe you'll still play.

Speaker 1 (34:11):
Los Angeles Rams Brass Balls Better than Week presented by
hard Rock Bet. Speaking of receivers who are injured and
their status being questionable or debated, The Samfisco forty nine
ers are at Arizona Arizona is a three point dog.

(34:32):
We liked Arizona on Tuesday. It was at two and
a half. We wanted it to get to three. It
did get to three. I don't know about you. I
bett did three. Marvin Harrison Junior is out with an appendectomy.

Speaker 2 (34:47):
I don't think that matters to me. This is to me.

Speaker 1 (34:49):
This is about Jacoby Brissett and Trey McBride, and we're
just talking about tight ends and a Niners defense that
cannot rush the passer right now has at the center
of its defense a new signal caller replacing Fred Wonner
who's played well. But it's still different when you're playing
against an all Pro tight end caliber tight end like

(35:11):
Trey McBride.

Speaker 3 (35:13):
Yeah, I'm with you.

Speaker 5 (35:14):
Other car knows it's another game though, just like a
Jags or I'm just betting this number.

Speaker 3 (35:18):
I don't really feel that great about so you might
have more opinions on this one than me. I simply
just took this number number. Obviously.

Speaker 5 (35:25):
Harris News sucks like that as much you want to
downplay it, he is their number one. He's a big,
big target who with Brissette seem like he's been playing
pretty well, so not ideal, but like you said, we're
just playing the number year in the matchup, and I
just I can't have this fur NiTi team catching more
than three points against anybody, let alone a divisional foe

(35:46):
that can move the ball offensively. Like you said, train wrecks.
Start to that game against Seattle. They fought, played well
throughout the game, and moved the ball pretty well. So
it's it's it's a good number, but man, is it's
a gross game.

Speaker 1 (36:01):
Do you want to hear my ependectomy story?

Speaker 3 (36:06):
Not really.

Speaker 2 (36:07):
The story is about how.

Speaker 1 (36:10):
I was trying to close the NFL preview at ESPN,
the magazine and I wasn't feeling well and for two
days I stayed in the office, barely leaving because my
boss at the time it was the first NFL preview
we were ever closing, and my boss was like, she
was like, you don't look good, but we really need you.

(36:32):
You're running this issue, we need you to be here
to close it. I under my desk. I had to
be removed and taken by ambulance to the hospital for
an emergency appandectomy, which I stayed in the hospital for
ten days after.

Speaker 2 (36:51):
Did you not know this?

Speaker 3 (36:52):
Yeah?

Speaker 1 (36:52):
Because I was closing the NFL preview for ESPN the
magazine in nineteen ninety eight.

Speaker 2 (36:56):
But here's the kicker. Here's the kicker.

Speaker 1 (37:00):
After the surgery, we had like our reviews and my
boss at the time, who I ended up quitting esp
IN the magazine because I just could not stand her.
She was one of the worst people I've ever worked,
who was still to this day horrible boss. Stole every idea,
what would not like, give me any help with assignments,

(37:23):
did not try to grow me in any particular way.
In my review that year, she gave me the equivalent
of a check minus in Disney grading rules for attendance,
essentially at work. And I'm like, what do you mean.

(37:45):
She goes, well, you know you were gone for two
weeks in June. I'm like, that was my honeymoon. I
just started four weeks earlier and everyone knew I was
getting married. She's like, and then there was that time
like in September where you were gone for like two
and a half weeks. I'm like, when I had when
an ambulance came and took me out because I had

(38:05):
an emergency appendectomy. The point of the story, Simon, I
played through it.

Speaker 3 (38:15):
Did you. It seems like the appendix one. I closed it,
put you down for ten days.

Speaker 2 (38:21):
I closed the issue. The point was, I closed the issue.

Speaker 3 (38:24):
We had.

Speaker 5 (38:26):
I had a buddy with it, basically the same thing,
but unlike you, he was. It was college and he's
boozing drinking. He goes, I think something's wrong. Is the
same thing where it's like right down, like above the crotch,
like below the stomach kind.

Speaker 2 (38:37):
Of yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.

Speaker 5 (38:38):
So basically the same thing as you where you probably
have like a sharp pain in that area. Yeah, And
he can't He basically couldn't stand up right a part.

Speaker 3 (38:46):
He says, he can't stand up.

Speaker 5 (38:46):
He said, so much pain, And I go, dude, you
should go to a hospital if you're in that much pain.
He goes, but I feel fine sitting here. It's just
when I stand up, I can't stand up. And I
basically buddy put him on his shoulder and carried him
down the street to a look doctor took.

Speaker 2 (39:01):
It doesn't sound like he was so committed to his job.

Speaker 1 (39:04):
He stayed at the office for two days in agony
to close the NFL preview issue.

Speaker 2 (39:08):
We haven't even really talked about the time.

Speaker 1 (39:10):
That I wrote a cover story for ESPN the magazine,
Uh after I had broken my back in a cab accident.

Speaker 2 (39:18):
Next time, we'll get to that one.

Speaker 1 (39:20):
Yes, Baltimore at Cleveland, this one was change choice when
it was eight and a half. The number of hard
rock is now down to seven and a half. You
mentioned there's some lingering news or issue news about a
knee issue with Lamar Jackson, But we were all over
this before. I'm glad here that the wise guys are

(39:41):
into it too. Give me some feedback on what they
were telling you. I have some thoughts on a very
specific point that you and I discussed about this game
the other day. But tell me what the wise guys
were telling you and how you're feeling about this forty
for forty eight hours later.

Speaker 5 (39:55):
Well, like I said, it feels like not that we
locked into it, but it should. The spot we both
loved were they. I feel like most of them knew
something was up with Lamar, that he was a little
banged up from that game, and they were taking position
on it because ifyew of it. If you're already getting
a bank of Lamore and he does play, you're handicapping
him because he's not gonna have the same Russian ability
against one of the best defensive lines in all football.
So the early line move as a shocked. I am

(40:15):
shocked though it has stuck at seven and a half.
I thought this would be just like that Houston Tennessee
linehere the book would head a little bit right, move
it down to seven, maybe six and a half, just
in case Lamar is out in this game. So they
must must be pretty positive confident that Lamar does play,
which I don't know how you can trust the Ravens
right now, Like I just anything hardball says to me.

Speaker 3 (40:36):
It's just I don't.

Speaker 5 (40:37):
Believe any of it now, Like I'll believe it come
Friday practice if he's with the first team, and you
know that's reported by reporters, not the team itself. So yeah,
it's I'm so glad we got the early line on Cleveland,
but it's it's a tough game to try to handicap
now because we really don't know if it's obviously if
it's not Lamar, I mean, we're elated. I would tell

(40:59):
people to bet now if you really think that. But
I do think Wamar plays. I just he's such a competitor.
He's missed so much time. I just unless he's really
really banged up and he can't move, I can't see
him missing this one.

Speaker 3 (41:10):
But for us, I wanted to play like I banged
up Lamar.

Speaker 5 (41:14):
I mean it's it's a great, great matchup for Miles
Garrett and the boys and just dive into this game more.
We talked a little bit about it. It's I'm not
putting so much faith in Dylan Gabriel. I still think
he's got issues, but I do think this cleand team
better run the ball against his Ravens team. I don't
think has fixed all of their issues. So yeah, still
love the numbers, still love the matchup. It's just what

(41:36):
will this number end up being. Hopefully people grabbed the eight
and a half when he gave it out.

Speaker 2 (41:41):
How do you feel about betting it at seven and
a half?

Speaker 3 (41:44):
I still bet it, just because it's just the unknown
of Lamar.

Speaker 5 (41:46):
I'm just I don't want people to go too crazy.
Because he does come back, this will definitely get back
to eight. I think eight and a half. Unless the
professionals really keep this down, I can't see it happens.
It's just gonna be so much public money on this
Ravens team. They're just one of the most belove teams
of football right now, especially by the betting and public.
They've just exactly what everyone predicted it to happen with
them has happened Lamar even before he came back in

(42:08):
with the backup, they've won it covered. It feels like
three games in a row here and they've totally flipped
that division with a losing record, They're the big odds
on favorite win that division. So it's just I don't
want people put us too much here into this number,
just in case he does come back. But how can
you that throw a little on if you didn't mistay
and a half. They're a little here on the seven
and a half on this Browns team, just in case
it has known little more and this does move by

(42:30):
another three or four points.

Speaker 1 (42:32):
We talked the other day about how much better the
Browns are at home than on the road, so I
did do a little research on it. The Browns at
home since the beginning of last season, when we really
started to notice this trend, give up twenty points per
game at home twenty nine points per game on the roads,
with thirty percent less at home. They also give up

(42:52):
thirty percent fewer rushing yards at home than on the road,
ninety five versus one hundred and thirty nine. They also
give up like ten percent for your passing yards. But
being at home does make a difference, you know, we
talked about all the time. It could be the grass.
It's obviously there's nuances, a plant of the will. The
weather certainly makes a difference. I also think, like the noise,

(43:14):
those fans are still rabid, and I think the dove
pound matters. I just do like that it makes a
difference for that team, and I think the fans know
it so the I like the Browns. They were shots choice.
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(43:35):
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Speaker 2 (43:40):
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New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, or Virginia. All right, Kansas City
at Denver. Denver is now three and a half a
hard rock There's still a bunch of fours out there
as well. This was almost almost your Simon says.

Speaker 2 (45:41):
We heard about it on sharp Calls. JK.

Speaker 1 (45:43):
Dobbins. Probably not planned because of a foot injury. He
may end up going on injured Reserve. They've been very
mom about it. Are you still there?

Speaker 3 (45:54):
Still on it?

Speaker 5 (45:55):
I'm definitely leaking a little confidence here because I thought
this would be all pros on this Broncos team. But
I just don't think guys trust bow Knicks.

Speaker 2 (46:04):
But it's either.

Speaker 5 (46:06):
Yeah, I mean that's fair. He's just he's regressed in
a lot of ways. But I'm glad I saw a
good Champayton stat that gives me a little confidence at least.

Speaker 3 (46:15):
Uh, this is a good.

Speaker 5 (46:16):
Champ Payton game where basically, if his teams only convert
one red zone trip in two consecutive games in his career,
they are fourteen and two straight up in that third
game five and one against the spread in his career.

Speaker 3 (46:31):
So take what you want from that. It's it really looks.

Speaker 5 (46:34):
Like it's the type of thing where he just gets
his offenses to bounce back and situationally after you know
it's been a rough go. Like I'll be the first
of him at this that Denver's game was atrocious. They
should have won that game by twenty points or more,
and just Bonicks gave him nothing and they didn't trust him,
Like they just were not letting them throw at certain
points because they just did not trust to putting the
ball downfield.

Speaker 3 (46:54):
So you know, this is just an interesting spot.

Speaker 5 (46:58):
So just like the fact in the last decade, you know,
Champagne seven to zero in the spot with the Broncos
used two and zero straight up and against the spread
in this exact spot where he's basically had a really
struggling offense and they bounced back in these games.

Speaker 3 (47:09):
So I don't know about you.

Speaker 5 (47:11):
It's just the Mahomes factor, because Mahomes, just I looked at,
historically dominates the Broncos in these games. He's been just
great divisionally on the road. But I just I can't
get to the fact how bad the Broncos have been
his whole career he's been on the chief So it's like,
I know, Bonnicks is no different those quarterbacks. I'm maybe
I'm overrating him still too much, But it just feels

(47:32):
like a lot of points for this this Chiefs team
going against a really good defense where I.

Speaker 3 (47:37):
Have some questions still about this Chiefs defense.

Speaker 5 (47:39):
There's still some ways I think they have holes that
teams have exploited, and the biggest one to be passing
downfield against them. So I know, I just that's why
I didn't make it sense. I just don't want to make
people invest once again in this Broncos team. I have
some other gross dogs I like better than this one,
but I'm on it. I've taken a pretty large position
on it at this point, but maybe I'll temperate as
we head into the weekend. I won't be put too

(48:00):
much in because just thought of Bonix as making me sick.

Speaker 1 (48:04):
Yeah, I feel like every time Bonnicks starts, he's so
amped up he could throw the ball through a wall.
And they missed so many opportunities in those first fifteen
scripted where Sean Payton and a lot of coaches are
at their best and it's usually calming for most quarterbacks,
and BONNICKX look like he's ready to jump out of

(48:25):
the stadium. And I also worry this defense without Pat
Certain against the Chiefs, that's a different kind of test
that they haven't really had since Certain was out, and
so it's a much more difficult proposition for them. We

(48:46):
don't love betting the Homes as a favorite of more
than three. I get it.

Speaker 2 (48:51):
I like Peyton in this spot. I get it.

Speaker 5 (48:53):
You should say that it is Chiefs off of Bye,
which we have in the past.

Speaker 3 (48:56):
We just automatically bet it, right, But true, I.

Speaker 1 (49:00):
Know I'm not gonna lie to you. I'm not bought
in on Denver at all here. I have not been
even the other day when you know it's at four
and you're hammering it and.

Speaker 3 (49:09):
Can give you some defensive stats that might help a little.

Speaker 2 (49:11):
Okay, that's here.

Speaker 5 (49:14):
It's just like it's like I'm trying to find a
reason there because I just it's just this number.

Speaker 3 (49:19):
I just can't get over it. But defensive reason defense.

Speaker 5 (49:24):
So they have forty plus sacks and this season they're
holding opponents on third down to less than three percent
conversion rate. They're the only defense to do that since
nineteen ninety other than the two thousand Bucks.

Speaker 3 (49:35):
Remember that team, right, So it's like covered that Super
Bowl nice, Yeah, it was a sick one. I just
I look at this.

Speaker 5 (49:43):
I'm just maybe I'm betting the defense here, like that
Houston game, and I got to stop thinking about bow knicks.
But we're gonna need him to make plays. That's the
hardest part here. It's like you're gonna need them to
show up. It's just brutal, brutal reals. So yeah, I
don't know if ial fortunate to be one of our
fives this week. If I'm really gonna be like Chad,
you gotta make guy take this one.

Speaker 3 (50:02):
If it was four and a half.

Speaker 5 (50:03):
I probably could have got you there, But like you said,
the fours have comeback down. The three and a half
feels like it's going to be out. So I do
like the Broncos, but there's other dogs I like better.

Speaker 1 (50:10):
This week Detroit at Philadelphia. You turned me around on this.

Speaker 2 (50:17):
The other day.

Speaker 1 (50:19):
I bet the Eagles at two and a half. That
is where the number is right now. It's not the
best of the number, but it's still below three. I
still liked it.

Speaker 2 (50:26):
I reran my model, because you know, I got a model.

Speaker 1 (50:29):
I worked on it during the off season with my
intern from Harvard's stats department, not even kidding. And I think,
if you can give me a good team that came
off of a tight win against a good team that
just had a big win, I'm still going to get
value on the good team off.

Speaker 2 (50:49):
Of the tight win. So I started to come around
on the Eagles.

Speaker 1 (50:53):
You're saying from the wise guys that it seemed like
it was split, but you kinda had me buy into
the Eagles the other day when I think I was
starting to lean towards the Lions.

Speaker 3 (51:04):
Yeah.

Speaker 5 (51:05):
I the hesitation, I feel like is a lot of
the why Gus you are taking positions on the Lions because
of all those crazy numbers and trends about golf in
prime time at night and how good himmc.

Speaker 3 (51:15):
Cambell have been covered. They're like covering machines.

Speaker 5 (51:17):
I think they're like sure, something like twenty five minute
against the spread. It's just something insane in these night games.
And then you factor in a stat we gave it
ear in the year, right when they blow teams out,
they cover at an insane rate. They're like a seventy
percent cover rate after they win by seven points or
more the following game. So we know all this, we
know what we're walking through. This is a really good team,
the Lions. Like we said, it's about the number, so

(51:39):
still like it. I mean we talked on Tuesday. Was
there was a couple one and a halfs out there. Yeah,
it's like as soon as the show was posted, they
were gone. Right, that got immediately up to two and
a half of basically every book, and.

Speaker 3 (51:49):
We moved hard Rock was hard Rock was the last one.

Speaker 5 (51:52):
Though hard Rock held at the two for a while,
and they did eventually move to a three and then
immediately went down to So there is a ton of
resistance to the three I feel like for professionals here
with the Lions, which I do get in matchup wise.
Like I said, I don't know if the books are
accounting for how good this defensive line now is for
this Eagles team with the upgrade to the position, because

(52:13):
for about four weeks there we had just two or
three guys. We had no rotation. So you saw last
week having guys submit and out. It's just fresh lugs.
Is such a huge deal with these defensive fronts. How
hard these guys run and work. And the biggest thing
I guess would be, well, Eagles are on a short week, right,
they traveled, you know, from Green Bay to this game home,

(52:35):
I guess. But to me it's the same with the Lions.
They were on the road against Washington and historically, actually
golf isn't great on back to back road games that
are both outdoors, which again I know it's stupid stats,
but all the stats for him are really dominant indoors,
Like it's insane. So we got to grasp with Charles.
We came people, it's he is a different and not
as good outdoors and matchup wise, I just keep getting

(52:59):
back to this Eagle's offense, as much as they have struggled,
this a trick team has so many injuries like this
is the exact type of defense you'd want to face, Yes,
for an Eagles team that needs to get right. So
I expect after a week filled with drama. I don't
know if you saw all the aj Brown stuff once again,
but oh yeah, basically was for the first time, honest,

(53:20):
which felt good to hear what actually is going on
rather than like these news reporters dictating how he's feeling
through his Instagram, which is just shows a level of
sports media reporting right now.

Speaker 3 (53:30):
If that's what we're going off.

Speaker 2 (53:31):
Don't to impugne the media.

Speaker 1 (53:34):
This isn't This isn't about how bad the media is.
Although if you watch you know social media, boy, they
ask a lot of stupid questions and open locker rooms
and press conferences.

Speaker 3 (53:46):
Yeah there you go chat.

Speaker 5 (53:48):
So I just he basically said it's him and Jaile
have no issues. Jalen's playing well, He's doing what's being
asked of him. He's got no problems with the OC.
He's doing what's being asked of him. So that leaves
one person he's got issues with, and that's a big
deal with's Sirianni.

Speaker 3 (54:04):
So we'll see what happens.

Speaker 5 (54:06):
Basically that it came out that him Syrianny had a
call and that fourth down play and hurts and AJ
went rogue and just said it's it's going to you
no matter what.

Speaker 3 (54:15):
Go deep. So there's a ton of drama.

Speaker 1 (54:19):
I mean, a couple of weeks ago against the Box,
was it is that we talking about?

Speaker 3 (54:22):
No last week?

Speaker 2 (54:23):
Last week? I don't remember the play.

Speaker 5 (54:25):
It was fourth It was fourth down for our lives.
The Eagles should have either pumped or kicked a field
goal against green Bay and they went for it. You
don't remember this fourth on like it was like a
fourth and eleven or something crazy.

Speaker 2 (54:36):
Maybe I went to bed at this point.

Speaker 5 (54:38):
Well, he took a deep shot to AJ and it
was incomplete and they left basically thirty seconds left for
green Bay that maybe tie with a field goal at
end the game.

Speaker 3 (54:44):
So it was just people were like, what the hell,
why wou's.

Speaker 5 (54:46):
Henny call that play? And he basically was just like,
I didn't call that. They they checked out it. So
there is a ton of drama, and I get why
people are freaking out about this Eagles team, but just
look at the matchup on the field. I just love
this matchup for this Eagles team, and the public's flyin
into a little bit. Like you said, the lines they're
getting all the money, all the tickets right now, they
are heavily a public dog, and then the line is

(55:08):
moving against him.

Speaker 3 (55:08):
Like I said, it's hit three to a couple of books.

Speaker 5 (55:10):
So if it touches three comes Sunday, I will feel
much better about our Eagles position because I mean some
real pro money is coming again on the two and
a half, which most people listening, that's what they're taking
on because right now all the pro money came in
on the one and a half. So love the Eagles here,
but obviously, like Chad said, we wish we give out
the best of the number.

Speaker 1 (55:29):
You know what, one team I don't worry about when
there's a lot of drama, The Eagles.

Speaker 2 (55:34):
Philly Justice, Welcome to Philly, bitch.

Speaker 1 (55:38):
There's always drama like there has been drama. I think
Nick Sirianni attracts the drama. I think people wanna like him,
not like him. I don't think he cares. I think
he says whatever is on his mind. I think he
likes to be partly trolling and enjoys it. And I
think the Eagles have the kind of personality that the
Bears had in the eighties and the Cowboys had in

(56:00):
the nineties. Like they're just these teams where there's big personalities,
a huge amount of talent, and there's always going to
be some kind of.

Speaker 2 (56:11):
Turmoil in that locker room.

Speaker 1 (56:14):
And I don't think it matters, Like I just don't
like that's It's all noise to me, And it's what's.

Speaker 3 (56:20):
That, Sirianni? He is John Madden.

Speaker 5 (56:23):
So they put up the stat the only other quarterback
that more wins through the first five seasons in NFL
history percentage wise John Madden, And I thought about that comparison.
It feels so right that man joined a team of
crazy drama raaders team just the head cases, and no
one took him serious for about five years, even though

(56:43):
he was leading the league and win percentage. So I'm
one of those people I hated Tierianni.

Speaker 3 (56:48):
I just hate the way he handled the media that way.

Speaker 5 (56:50):
He talks to the fans all of that, but all
he does is win and you gotta respect it. And
like you said, he seems like he thrives when there's
tons of in house dramas. So you're right, maybe I'm
over to too much. Strike Just there's so much affilure
right now. I can't get over how bad it is.

Speaker 1 (57:04):
Yeah, I mean, you're in the middle of the white noise.
You can't get away from it. Whereas like I'm just
seeing it as funny and it's the same story every
single week and every single year with this team, and
this team. Honestly, I know they're not being nearly as effective,
but there's something about their lack of effectiveness that to me,
I'm only watching Jalen Hurts, and Jalen Hurts when he's

(57:25):
on the field doesn't seem bothered by the lack of
effectiveness he has in the past. This year, it seems
like the lack of effectiveness is almost by a choice
where he's just making the right calls and doing the
right things and doing what needs to be one and
not trying to do things to make sort of dramatic
plays for lack of a better term. And so I'm

(57:47):
only watching him and he's just he's unbothered.

Speaker 3 (57:53):
It's fair.

Speaker 5 (57:54):
But like last year, I had a sneaky I guess
I was thinking because I gave him out heading the year.

Speaker 3 (57:59):
Bout was just all in on that ego steament.

Speaker 5 (58:01):
Wins Super Bowl, where this year I just have so
many questions where last year I did not. Like I
had one big question. It was about that defense, and
after the bye week they got it right the Eagles
after their bye week, the defense looked amazing, but the
offense left left a lot to the imagination. So yeah,
this is like I said, this is a perfect spot
for this egos offense to get right against a banged

(58:23):
up lines defense.

Speaker 1 (58:25):
Let's talk about that crazy Las Vegas Raiders plus three
and a half Simon Sas against the Dallas Cowboys on
Monday Night. Uh, you gotta want this, you gotta you
really gotta want it.

Speaker 2 (58:38):
Explain yourself, Simon Hunter on the Las Vegas Raiders.

Speaker 5 (58:43):
I still love it the pushback I got for people,
the pros that have talked about this when it is
that Cowboys did get people back to their defense that
are coming off into reserved and you know, could that
be a big upgrade for them, Sure, But my argument
with them is it's like trying to fix a whole
on the sinking ship with a truly a band aid,
Like there they have so many issues. Their top corner

(59:05):
Bland has no legs anymore. He has no speed, like
something made him so special from just having a couple injuries,
he's lost it. So I just love this match with
this Raiders offense wise, I just think this is the
perfect team they match up for them. And defensively, you know,
you've seen the Cowboys have struggle this year. It's whin
there's facing against a good pass rush. So to me,

(59:26):
Max Crosby, you know, I don't want to get too
much credence to podcast people, but because you know, every
week I'm frea might go on his.

Speaker 3 (59:34):
Pockets and stafe stuff.

Speaker 5 (59:34):
But I saw this week he's basically playing all these
clips from people in the media trashing them, saying how
bad he's been and how that loss was on him,
like he did nothing in that Denver game and they
can't stop the run, everything like that, And I just
love that type of thing for him, where he's just.

Speaker 3 (59:49):
Going to be a mental case in this game. So
it's it's shocking.

Speaker 5 (59:54):
To me that there's no pros on this Raiders team yet.
But like I said, maybe Sunday Morning shot, I'll have
more guys join me. But it's just because it's the
Monday game. I feel like it's either been for the
pro side at least they're taking the Cowboys, or nothing
at all at this point.

Speaker 2 (01:00:07):
All Right, we got a lot to discuss.

Speaker 5 (01:00:10):
We've got a couple of games you missed that I like, Oh,
tell me what I miss Where are we at with
this Panthers team?

Speaker 3 (01:00:18):
I told you I got a lot of calls about it.

Speaker 2 (01:00:19):
You know what's funny?

Speaker 3 (01:00:22):
Are we missing it here?

Speaker 2 (01:00:24):
I wonder if we are too.

Speaker 1 (01:00:25):
I was actually just scrolling through because I was looking
ahead to our underdog parlay, and the Panthers jumped out
as a team that we would want to put.

Speaker 2 (01:00:35):
In as the underdog parlay.

Speaker 1 (01:00:37):
And obviously I've got trepidation because of what's happening with
Bryce Young in the past couple weeks.

Speaker 2 (01:00:42):
He just hasn't looked good. But I do.

Speaker 1 (01:00:44):
Think I think there's much more systemic issues with the
Falcons than with the Panthers to.

Speaker 5 (01:00:53):
Be catching three and a half. That's I feel like
we both aree on that. Yeah, points for a the
Falcons team that has so many issues.

Speaker 1 (01:01:00):
Speaking of social media, there was a clip the other
day I think I saw yesterday on the X platform,
where Michael Pennix was asked about you know who he
leans on for support when things aren't going well and
who gives him advice. He talked about his fiance and
his high school coach, the people he didn't mention in

(01:01:20):
his ears sort of that are helping coach him up
Raheem Morris and Zach Robinson, his offensive coordinator and his
head coach. And I do think we're seeing some of
this on the field where his performance has not been
where it should be. But how much of that is
on the coaching and how much of that is on
the play calling. So I do think that there's probably,

(01:01:43):
for lack of a better term, better vibes in Carolina.
I just don't know. I guess at the hook, Yeah,
we're taking Carolina. That's really what it is.

Speaker 5 (01:01:52):
Yeah, And we didn't even talk about, which was a
mistake on my part. Atlanta is coming off an overtime
game and an international. This has never happened in the
history of football. Usually it's happened five times, will all
those teams had bye weeks. It's the first time ever
a team is playing an overtime game internationally come home
to play a game so there's there's that part of it,

(01:02:13):
and you know the Penix part, you know, like you
like we said, it's just inconsistent and that's a lot
of points for end me catching in a divisional matchup
where the Panthers have surprisingly owned the Falcons these last
few times they've played. So yeah, I just want to
make sure I bought this one up. Just don't appel
to be shocked if we do end up taking this
one on Sunday. It's a game I'm been into. I
like the Panthers here, and it's definitely was a miss

(01:02:35):
on my part. I should trust of my model, which
I had at two and a half. I just I
couldn't get what the books you're doing. You're hanging this number.
But I do think this comes down to three as
more professionals coming and bet the Spanther side.

Speaker 1 (01:02:45):
So all right, I'm into that. I'm into that because,
to be honest, I think we were struggling to find
five that we love, not even like agreed on, just
like five games that we were really in love with.

Speaker 2 (01:02:56):
So I could see that and.

Speaker 5 (01:02:58):
Then before you got just going to throw a two games,
just I'm line moving while we're doing the show live
Tampa has moved to plus six at a couple of
books Jesus, So yeah, that's that's happening as we speak,
and the Bears are shifting to two and a half.

Speaker 3 (01:03:16):
So yeah, we talked about a little bit.

Speaker 5 (01:03:19):
We both I feel like we're trying not to We
both are liking on the Bears at plus three.

Speaker 3 (01:03:24):
That's just and this was three and a half.

Speaker 2 (01:03:27):
This was at three and a half by the way,
last night, So it to me it's about.

Speaker 5 (01:03:33):
We don't know because we're doing the show right now,
but it's two and a half everywhere now.

Speaker 2 (01:03:37):
I do not like the Bears at two and a half.

Speaker 3 (01:03:39):
No, no, no, no, I like King.

Speaker 5 (01:03:42):
I'm bringing up for people if they want to grab
the Bears. I grabbed the three if you can before
it moves.

Speaker 2 (01:03:46):
That game was at three and a half.

Speaker 1 (01:03:47):
All right, Well, that the Vikings at two and a
half might be an interesting play on Sunday, Okay, I
keep thinking about the Bears keep coming back against really
bad teams, but like.

Speaker 3 (01:04:00):
Well, Caleb against the NFC North, right.

Speaker 2 (01:04:02):
Can I invest in JJ McCarthy. You know, that's just tricky.

Speaker 3 (01:04:07):
It's a really tricky one in his career, right, end
of the year.

Speaker 1 (01:04:13):
All right, So let's let's take a pause here for
a second, because I want to recap. Cincinnati plus five
and a half is a game we're both going to
be on. Houston minus six and a half. The Bucks
are now a plus six. That's scary. I'm glad we
really haven't bet that. We know we like the Rams
plus three. We know we like I mean minus three.
We know we like Cleveland, uh plus seven and a half,

(01:04:35):
plus eight plus eight and a half. We think we
like Philly, uh minus two and a half. I don't
love the Raiders, but I do like the Panthers a lot.

Speaker 3 (01:04:47):
Get it. The Raiders are tough. It's tough.

Speaker 2 (01:04:48):
Raiders are tough.

Speaker 5 (01:04:50):
You gotta keep fan This Dallas team is a big favorites.
It's been profitable this year, fading.

Speaker 1 (01:04:55):
So we got some decisions to make on Sunday. Give
me your biggest bets right now. It's it sounds like
Panthers might actually be in there.

Speaker 3 (01:05:02):
Pull up close pants and be a man. They're getting there.

Speaker 5 (01:05:06):
Like, honestly, I really took a heavy position on Cleveland,
like we talked about. I really thought not that that
number was gonna come steaming down because of what we
were talking about, but got very lucky that I bet
it before the all the Lamar news. Still like at
the seven plus seven and a half as long as
above the seven, rams keep hitting it like I got
tons on two and a half of a ton of

(01:05:28):
minus three. If it gets a minus three and a half,
I'm not gonna be that invested into it. It's all
about the number here, So if it stays on the three,
I really think I'd be one of my bigger bets
comes Sunday, and I'm probably gonna get there. Probably gonna
get there on this Eagles team. I just right now,
I haven't taken too big of a position, but it's

(01:05:48):
just so I thought the one and a half would
pop again, so I'm gonna try to be patient on
that one.

Speaker 3 (01:05:51):
But it seems like it keeps getting to the three.

Speaker 5 (01:05:53):
It's not going the way I wanted to, so I
might just have to suck it up and just take
the two and a half on this Eagles team.

Speaker 2 (01:05:59):
All right? With three? Team parlay for underdogs.

Speaker 3 (01:06:07):
My dog blocks.

Speaker 6 (01:06:08):
Your dog, Your dog blocks mo dog.

Speaker 1 (01:06:12):
I would do Carolina, mm hmm, gotta do Cincy Cincinnati.

Speaker 2 (01:06:17):
Yep.

Speaker 3 (01:06:17):
That was on my list plus two. Were you Cardinals?

Speaker 2 (01:06:22):
Well, we didn't talk about the Cardinals. No, we did briefly.

Speaker 5 (01:06:27):
I know I'm not crazy about it, but like it's
either them or the Jacks.

Speaker 3 (01:06:30):
Is a good home dogs.

Speaker 2 (01:06:32):
Let's do the Cardinals, all right?

Speaker 1 (01:06:35):
So three team Parlay, Carolina, Arizona and Cincinnati favorite Parlay.

Speaker 7 (01:06:46):
Gotta go Rams, Rams, Ravens, Ravens, Houston, Houston, Green Bay,
Green Bay.

Speaker 3 (01:07:00):
I mean it's tough, but it's it brings the juice down.
First little bit, Philly.

Speaker 2 (01:07:05):
I was looking at Philly.

Speaker 1 (01:07:06):
It feels like we could probably avoid that anxiety a
little bit.

Speaker 2 (01:07:11):
Can't we?

Speaker 3 (01:07:12):
What Eagles? Yeah, speak for yourself?

Speaker 2 (01:07:16):
Allright, fine, let's do Philly. Let's do silly all right?
Sharp versus Square? You won last week?

Speaker 3 (01:07:25):
You had just dominating you chat. You gotta get together, brother.

Speaker 2 (01:07:28):
You had Dolphins plus nine and a half.

Speaker 5 (01:07:31):
I gotta go with my guys. I guess give me
Panthers plus three and a half.

Speaker 1 (01:07:35):
All right, then I will take gimme Houston. This has
been Sharper Square, part of the Volume podcast Network. Will
be back for more Sharper Square on YouTube on Sunday morning.
As an eavesdrop on an intimate conversation between me and
Simon and which we will make utterly painful human decisions

(01:07:56):
in a total panic that we will regret the rest.

Speaker 2 (01:07:59):
Of the day.

Speaker 1 (01:08:00):
We'll be back on Sharper Square YouTube Sunday night, seven
thirty ish to recap all of that misery. Watch We'll
listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like the video, subscribe
to the channel. Also Donalds from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever
you get your pods, rate review subscribes say whatever you want.

Speaker 2 (01:08:14):
Feedback is a gift. Until next time, Love you.

Speaker 3 (01:08:19):
Hey, let's recap for

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