June 8, 2025 • 7 mins
The Meat Industry Association chairman, and former Minister for Primary Industries, talks tariffs, record meat prices, and whether he supports Federated Farmers' SOS (Save Our Sheep) campaign.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
He's the chair of the Meat Industry Association. Former Minister
of Agriculture Horrafinowa Cowcocky, Nathan Guy and Nathan no doubt
will catch up at field days. Our paths will cross,
but I want to start with this one. From a
report out today, most New Zealand businesses surveyed believe the
United States tariff policies will have a much greater impact
(00:22):
on them than COVID nineteen or the global financial crisis. Meat,
dairy and wine were seen as the most vulnerable from tariffs.
What do you make for that? What do you make
of that? Should I say?
Speaker 2 (00:35):
Well, I'm not sure. It might be a bit like
these international scientists that were ganging up on New Zealand
that we weren't doing enough to solve the meat dane
issues last week, and I heard the PM just kick
that for touch. This could be another one. My contacts
in the red meat industry are saying prices are still good,
pushing pretty hard to get it back into the customers,
(01:00):
and consumers having to pay rather than themselves. If you
look at meat company returns over the last twelve months,
they buy and large being sort of cigarette paper thin,
so they can't afford it, and the President's made the decisions,
which is basically going to drive up costs and inflation.
So meat companies are having a bit of an arm
wrestle in some cases with customers at the border. But
(01:23):
they want our product and they'll end up paying for it.
Speaker 1 (01:26):
Well, my information certainly would suggest that the Americans are
paying for it, and when it comes to the hamburger
beef that they so desperately need, they're almost happy to
pay it just to get it.
Speaker 2 (01:38):
That's right. I read an article when was a few
weeks back that the average US consumer has three burgers
a week. It's a shipload, isn't it. The other thing
is that our grinding beef is recession proof, so if
they do drop into recession as a result of these tariffs,
and who knows if they will, but it's going to
(01:58):
have some impact. Hamburger patties and burgers are a bit
like a staple for US, but like milk and cheese
and bread and eggs and things, so I think we're
in a bit of a sweet spot. The other thing
is we just don't know what's going to happen with
the tariff war between the US and China. That may
have some upside for US in due course. We're just
(02:19):
waiting to see how long will.
Speaker 1 (02:21):
These record meat prices last. Certainly for beef, it's looking
like they could be at least two or three years.
Great news.
Speaker 2 (02:29):
That's the feeling in the US, and that's why the
ten percent tariff is really going to just impact consumers
as opposed to our companies in the n Z the
demand is very strong. Their herd rebuild is going to
take a while to occur. Worse culling as a result
of successive droughts for I don't know, fifty to seventy
(02:49):
years a hell of a long time. I can't bring
those numbers back overnight. So once again, I think we're
looking pretty good in the US. If we look at
LAMB in the UK and Europe, there is talk that
they've got a lack of supply over there, so once again,
that's quite an important sweet spot for US and a
(03:09):
high value market. So I think overall, not discounting Asia
as well for fifth quarter and other growing markets, I
think we're looking pretty strong right now.
Speaker 1 (03:19):
We have some real though capacity issues within the red
meat industry. We're seeing sheep numbers four I'm going to
talk to Mike Peterson about this one. But Hawk's Bay
has lost more than two million sheep. They've gone from
five million to three million in the space of thirty years.
That's a huge drop in percentage terms.
Speaker 2 (03:40):
Yes, that's a real issue for meat companies across the board.
Too much capacity, real competitive pricing at the moment to
get stock through their plants to make sure that they
can be efficient. Farmers are benefiting as a result of that,
and of course Alliance we're all just waiting to see
what happens there in due course with their decisions. It
(04:03):
feels and sounds like suppliers aren't prepared to put their
hand in their pockets, so they're going to need to
look for some sternal investment. Or indeed it could come
from other meat companies in n Z. But who knows.
Wait and see, So do.
Speaker 1 (04:17):
You reckon Silver Firm Farms might have a crack at
the Alliance group.
Speaker 2 (04:22):
I don't know, Jamie, anymore than you'd be. There's rumors
flying around all over the place, but I really don't
listen to them and take any notice. The Alliance board
or make the decision in due course, and we'll wait
and see.
Speaker 1 (04:33):
What do you make a federated farmer's campaign, and I
say good on the FEDS for getting the billboards up
in central Wellington right across the road from the Beehive
to Save our Sheep campaign.
Speaker 2 (04:46):
Ah. Yes, I'm following that with a bit of interest.
I think it's great politics at the grassroots level because
trees have had an impact on rural communities. When I
was in Parliament, I stood up on several occasions and
said this policy will hollow out rural communities. It's indeed
done that. I'm waiting for the government to make a decision.
(05:06):
I think it's imminent on what they're going to do
about the forestry settings and land use changes and things.
It does feel a little bit like the horse has
bolted over the last few years, and of course that
started under the Ardurn government and this one has certainly
been very sympathetic to farmers and have made a lot
(05:28):
of changes in regulations and environmental stuff already. And this
is the next big one that we're waiting for. Should
we be.
Speaker 1 (05:35):
Enter out of Paris. I know what you're going to say.
Speaker 2 (05:38):
What do you think I'm going to say?
Speaker 1 (05:39):
I think you're going to say, we've got to stay
in the Paris Agreement.
Speaker 2 (05:43):
That's exactly what I think in a personal level, and
also being a former Minister of Primary Industries and being
involved in the trade space, it's a no brainer. We've
got to stay in there because what are we. One
hundred and ninety six other countries are in there and
it would cause us a huge amount of angst and
(06:06):
legal consequences if we pulled out. I know, once again
the politics and this at the grassroots, everyone thinks, get
the hell out of it, but here's a number for
farmers to put in their back pocket. In the last year,
we exported one point seven billion dollars of red meat
to the EU and the UK, and they would be
(06:28):
the two markets that would have a real crack at
us if we pulled out. We spend a lot of
time talking about non tariff barriers when we travel around
the world talking to countries that have these itches, and
once they're in place, they're hard to remove. So this
would be seen as a tariff barrier by New Zealand
and it doesn't make any economic sense. Ultimately, it would
(06:50):
cost a schedule on sheep meat and red meat into
the UK and the EU.
Speaker 1 (06:56):
Nathan guy, thank you very much. For your time. I'll
look forward to catching up with you for a coffee
or a bear or a burger. Who knows that Field Days,
it better.
Speaker 2 (07:04):
Be a bear, Jamie. Because I see that you've had
another award winning recognition. I hope your pull room at
home is big enough for all of these gongs that
you keep getting. Congratulations on your long service acknowledgment at
the Radio Awards last week.
Speaker 1 (07:18):
Well, well, it kind of has a farming connection. I
jokingly call it the about to be put out to
pasture Award. If you hang around for long enough, Nathan,
you get the chocolates. I'll see you later. See a
field Days.
Speaker 2 (07:32):
Cheers mate, Bye,
He's the chair of the Meat Industry Association. Former Minister
of Agriculture Horrafinowa Cowcocky, Nathan Guy and Nathan no doubt
will catch up at field days. Our paths will cross,
but I want to start with this one. From a
report out today, most New Zealand businesses surveyed believe the
United States tariff policies will have a much greater impact
(00:22):
on them than COVID nineteen or the global financial crisis. Meat,
dairy and wine were seen as the most vulnerable from tariffs.
What do you make for that? What do you make
of that? Should I say?
Speaker 2 (00:35):
Well, I'm not sure. It might be a bit like
these international scientists that were ganging up on New Zealand
that we weren't doing enough to solve the meat dane
issues last week, and I heard the PM just kick
that for touch. This could be another one. My contacts
in the red meat industry are saying prices are still good,
pushing pretty hard to get it back into the customers,
(01:00):
and consumers having to pay rather than themselves. If you
look at meat company returns over the last twelve months,
they buy and large being sort of cigarette paper thin,
so they can't afford it, and the President's made the decisions,
which is basically going to drive up costs and inflation.
So meat companies are having a bit of an arm
wrestle in some cases with customers at the border. But
(01:23):
they want our product and they'll end up paying for it.
Speaker 1 (01:26):
Well, my information certainly would suggest that the Americans are
paying for it, and when it comes to the hamburger
beef that they so desperately need, they're almost happy to
pay it just to get it.
Speaker 2 (01:38):
That's right. I read an article when was a few
weeks back that the average US consumer has three burgers
a week. It's a shipload, isn't it. The other thing
is that our grinding beef is recession proof, so if
they do drop into recession as a result of these tariffs,
and who knows if they will, but it's going to
(01:58):
have some impact. Hamburger patties and burgers are a bit
like a staple for US, but like milk and cheese
and bread and eggs and things, so I think we're
in a bit of a sweet spot. The other thing
is we just don't know what's going to happen with
the tariff war between the US and China. That may
have some upside for US in due course. We're just
(02:19):
waiting to see how long will.
Speaker 1 (02:21):
These record meat prices last. Certainly for beef, it's looking
like they could be at least two or three years.
Great news.
Speaker 2 (02:29):
That's the feeling in the US, and that's why the
ten percent tariff is really going to just impact consumers
as opposed to our companies in the n Z the
demand is very strong. Their herd rebuild is going to
take a while to occur. Worse culling as a result
of successive droughts for I don't know, fifty to seventy
(02:49):
years a hell of a long time. I can't bring
those numbers back overnight. So once again, I think we're
looking pretty good in the US. If we look at
LAMB in the UK and Europe, there is talk that
they've got a lack of supply over there, so once again,
that's quite an important sweet spot for US and a
(03:09):
high value market. So I think overall, not discounting Asia
as well for fifth quarter and other growing markets, I
think we're looking pretty strong right now.
Speaker 1 (03:19):
We have some real though capacity issues within the red
meat industry. We're seeing sheep numbers four I'm going to
talk to Mike Peterson about this one. But Hawk's Bay
has lost more than two million sheep. They've gone from
five million to three million in the space of thirty years.
That's a huge drop in percentage terms.
Speaker 2 (03:40):
Yes, that's a real issue for meat companies across the board.
Too much capacity, real competitive pricing at the moment to
get stock through their plants to make sure that they
can be efficient. Farmers are benefiting as a result of that,
and of course Alliance we're all just waiting to see
what happens there in due course with their decisions. It
(04:03):
feels and sounds like suppliers aren't prepared to put their
hand in their pockets, so they're going to need to
look for some sternal investment. Or indeed it could come
from other meat companies in n Z. But who knows.
Wait and see, So do.
Speaker 1 (04:17):
You reckon Silver Firm Farms might have a crack at
the Alliance group.
Speaker 2 (04:22):
I don't know, Jamie, anymore than you'd be. There's rumors
flying around all over the place, but I really don't
listen to them and take any notice. The Alliance board
or make the decision in due course, and we'll wait
and see.
Speaker 1 (04:33):
What do you make a federated farmer's campaign, and I
say good on the FEDS for getting the billboards up
in central Wellington right across the road from the Beehive
to Save our Sheep campaign.
Speaker 2 (04:46):
Ah. Yes, I'm following that with a bit of interest.
I think it's great politics at the grassroots level because
trees have had an impact on rural communities. When I
was in Parliament, I stood up on several occasions and
said this policy will hollow out rural communities. It's indeed
done that. I'm waiting for the government to make a decision.
(05:06):
I think it's imminent on what they're going to do
about the forestry settings and land use changes and things.
It does feel a little bit like the horse has
bolted over the last few years, and of course that
started under the Ardurn government and this one has certainly
been very sympathetic to farmers and have made a lot
(05:28):
of changes in regulations and environmental stuff already. And this
is the next big one that we're waiting for. Should
we be.
Speaker 1 (05:35):
Enter out of Paris. I know what you're going to say.
Speaker 2 (05:38):
What do you think I'm going to say?
Speaker 1 (05:39):
I think you're going to say, we've got to stay
in the Paris Agreement.
Speaker 2 (05:43):
That's exactly what I think in a personal level, and
also being a former Minister of Primary Industries and being
involved in the trade space, it's a no brainer. We've
got to stay in there because what are we. One
hundred and ninety six other countries are in there and
it would cause us a huge amount of angst and
(06:06):
legal consequences if we pulled out. I know, once again
the politics and this at the grassroots, everyone thinks, get
the hell out of it, but here's a number for
farmers to put in their back pocket. In the last year,
we exported one point seven billion dollars of red meat
to the EU and the UK, and they would be
(06:28):
the two markets that would have a real crack at
us if we pulled out. We spend a lot of
time talking about non tariff barriers when we travel around
the world talking to countries that have these itches, and
once they're in place, they're hard to remove. So this
would be seen as a tariff barrier by New Zealand
and it doesn't make any economic sense. Ultimately, it would
(06:50):
cost a schedule on sheep meat and red meat into
the UK and the EU.
Speaker 1 (06:56):
Nathan guy, thank you very much. For your time. I'll
look forward to catching up with you for a coffee
or a bear or a burger. Who knows that Field Days,
it better.
Speaker 2 (07:04):
Be a bear, Jamie. Because I see that you've had
another award winning recognition. I hope your pull room at
home is big enough for all of these gongs that
you keep getting. Congratulations on your long service acknowledgment at
the Radio Awards last week.
Speaker 1 (07:18):
Well, well, it kind of has a farming connection. I
jokingly call it the about to be put out to
pasture Award. If you hang around for long enough, Nathan,
you get the chocolates. I'll see you later. See a
field Days.
Speaker 2 (07:32):
Cheers mate, Bye,
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