The Country 03/11/25: Phil Duncan talks to Jamie Mackay

Monday’s weatherman on November’s change of fortunes.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Weather on the country with farmlands, with clothing to keep
you cool, dry and protected this summer phel Duncan a
bit of Alanas Morris set just for you. Had you
ever go to the movies?

Speaker 2 (00:13):
Not much of these days?

Speaker 1 (00:14):
No, Well, I went to the movies with the program
director The Last Night because Pike River, Melanie Lynskey world famous,
Robin Malcolm world famous in New Zealand, Lucy Lawless kind
of world famous as well. And I must say it
was quite a moving movie, but very politically orientated. John

(00:35):
Key came across as a gormleous sort of character, whereas
when well it wasn't him, they had someone acting in
his role. But when it came to Jasinda, guess who
played Jasinda herself? Yes, yes, she came out looking a
million dollars. So there you go. We'll see. I won't
ask Seymour what he thinks about that anyhow, onto the

(00:57):
issues of the day. October was awful, finished on a
real low with those terrible, terrible winds in the storm.
But gee, we're off to a flyer with November fill.
I only want good news.

Speaker 2 (01:08):
Yeah, you know, quite often I say to people, mother
nature doesn't know. It's the first of the month, and
so don't expect it to change like a switch. And
yet literally that's kind of what's happened much of New Zealand.
High pressure finally in control, a lot of dry weather,
a lot of sunny weather, and apart from probably Hawkes Bay,
most of the regions around the country will be loving
this change. Now. The interesting thing looking at kind of

(01:30):
a long range pattern, we've got a lot more high
pressure to move through this week and probably next week
as well. But it's worth noting two things. Number One,
the Southern Ocean is still very active and stormy, as
you would expect only a couple of months out of winter.
But the other second, perhaps more important feature, is all
the low pressure that is over Australia over the next
two weeks. So there's a lot of low pressure at

(01:52):
our latitude and so what that means is once these
highs move away from us, there is a good chance
that we could get another low I think November is
going to be fairly normal for this time of the year,
except that we were going to see production in the
severe weather events and we're not completely finished with the
cold snaps. There's very likely to be another one within
the next couple of weeks, but certainly not seeing severe

(02:15):
weather of forecasts around the country like we were seeing
just over the last few months.

Speaker 1 (02:19):
Well, we've needed this break in the weather because September
and October were truly awful depending on where you lived
in the country. We're going to be heading to Canterick,
excuse me, North Canterbury shortly. All the pivot Erra gate
is not all of them, but a lot of them
have been blown over and bent and buckled. They're starting
to get quite dry there. But when I look at
my kneewa oops, I mean Earth Sciences and Z Drought

(02:42):
Indicator map, it stands out like a sore thumb. And
you mentioned it Hawk's Bay.

Speaker 2 (02:48):
Yeah, very dry. It has had a little bit of
rain relief just here and there, but it has been
dry and the windy, very windy weather and some very
hot days as well, pushing close to thirty degrees. There's
really dry out the surface of the soil. It's had
a very dry year around parts of Hawk's Bay, especially
sort of around the Hastings area plus or minus thirty
minutes of driving that's the area that's been particularly dry.

(03:10):
Now we long range there is somewhere we're the coming
true into the country, including maybe eastern parts of the
North Island. But there is more high pressure than low pressure,
which means I think we're going to see places drying
out more so over the next couple of weeks than
we've seen over the last couple of weeks. But you know,
there are a couple of areas of low pressure to
keep an eye on. And the other feature is Larnina.

(03:32):
We may actually get a Larnina announced this month or
or in December. It doesn't look like it's going to
be very strong or last very long, but you couple
that up with the low pressure in Australia and we
may well get something out of the tropics or subtropics
that could help in those eats.

Speaker 1 (03:47):
Well sorry, Larnina, correct me if I'm wrong. Would be
good for the traditionally drier parts of the country, ie
the east coasts of both islands.

Speaker 2 (03:56):
If it's a grunty one, you know, if it's just
a meanderingly I mean you that's sort of borderline sort
of producing loads to the north. They might not have
the energy to reach this s far south. But if
we get some really good areas of low pressure, north
of New Zealand. Then absolutely what you're saying is right,
because it encourages high pressure further down over Southland. They'll
be loving that. And then you end up with easterlyes

(04:18):
at the top of the country, which can then drive
and rain to those areas. That's the formula. But I
get nervous with London because there's a lot of headlines
that say when it forms, we get rain, and it
really isn't as simplistic as that.

Speaker 1 (04:30):
Well, Southland needs a high to sit over it for
about a month and nothing else to help in the
recovery down there. Look, look, just finally, and I don't
want to be alarmist on this, but if you're on
the East coast and we're heading to North Canterbury shortly,
as I said, they're starting to dry out, but fore
warned is forearms. Should you be farming towards a dry season?

(04:52):
I suppose you always do in those parts of the country.

Speaker 2 (04:55):
Yeah, I mean Eastern New Zealand is traditionally an area
that dries out, but Hawks Bay is a bit dry
than it usually would be to this time of the year,
at least some parts of books day, not all of it. Yeah,
I would be a little bit cautious about how dry
it's going to become, because I do think we're seeing
higher temperatures, We've got a good chance of getting more
heat coming from the north and from out of Australia.

(05:16):
And we're not done with the windy weather. I mean,
while it's really lovely this week in a number of places,
it is still going to be a bit windy even
today in some places, so we're not finished with the
wind yet. November is still spring, so I think I
would be leaning towards dryer rather than wetter in the
East at this early stage.

Speaker 1 (05:32):
Bell Duncan, thanks as always for your time. I'm going
to roll out with a bit of Alana smareset just
for you. Perfect see Sol Duncan there from weather Watch