The Country 07/11/25: Chris Brandolino talks to Jamie Mackay

Our Friday weather man from Earth Sciences NZ talks about a drought map rearing its ugly head early in the season. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Weather on the country with farm lands helping to prevent
parasite outbreaks this summer. Righty o here he is from
newa or Earth Sciences, New Zealand. I'll better get it right,
Chris Brandolino. I'm looking at you, drought indigs, Matt Chris
and a farm and hawks By. I'm not locking it.

Speaker 2 (00:18):
Yeah, well there's a good reason not to like it.
It's dry, so yeah, we have dry too. Very dry
conditions have e merged in hawks Bay, particularly Central and
lower hawks Bay, so that is an area worth watching.
We did publish our latest hotspot report. My steam colleague
Chester he worked on that and that's on our website.
If you want to type in hotspot into uncle Google,

(00:41):
you could direct it to that and that'll kind of
articulate the expectations for rainfall or lack thereof over the
coming week. But yeah, it's certainly dry there.

Speaker 1 (00:49):
As I said about earlier in Michelle, I was talking
to Steven Harris, a Central hawk's By native, and he
was saying, yes, it's getting a bit worryingly dry. Nothing
they haven't seen before, and one good dollopara could change things,
he said. Gisbon was okay, but Wharepa is starting to
dry off as well, and Canterbury with all those winds
that they've had, you know, sometimes you're only a week

(01:11):
away from a drought in Canterbury.

Speaker 2 (01:14):
Yeah. Look, we've had these persistent sort of west and
northwest winds, sometimes going south of west and we turn cold,
but generally west and northwest. And that's traced back to
that sudden stratospheric warming event we've been talking about that
happened back in September over the South Pole over Antarctica,
and that basically displaced or moved all the storminess that

(01:35):
normally is over the continent into the Southern Ocean and
that has really accentuated the wind and we're still seeing
lingering effects of that, and that will probably continue for
the rest of the month, maybe in a slightly different fashion.
Indications are Jamie, that high pressure is going to be
quite strong and persistent near in east of the Chathams,
almost blocking and what that will do is when we

(01:58):
see a trough of low pressure go over and say
the Aussy Bite or the Southern Ocean or the Tasman
Sea areas to our west, we're going to see northwest
flows and these chances for maybe some bigger rainfalls because
of those airflows. In fact, as we look into next week,
well let's start with the weekend. In fact, we are
going to see some spotty but heavy showers and thunderstorms.

(02:21):
I think the day to watch is Saturday and well
Saturday and Sunday, which is the weekend by the way.
As I said, but if you're listening from northern Waikato
to Aukland and Northland regions, there will be spotty but
very heavy rain over the next couple of days, probably
triggered by the sea breeze that'll happen again on Sunday,

(02:41):
but probably a little farther south Central Plateau, maybe Hawks
Bay get some rain, but probably not the areas that
need it. Then we have to watch for a pretty
decent front that'll move through Monday afternoon and evening, give
a good drop of rain to Southland, maybe some thunderstorms,
good drop a rain to the west, to the South Island,
top of the South Island, much of the country except

(03:03):
the places that probably need it, eastern areas. And then, Jamie,
I guess you're interested in Canterbury for some reason. Next week,
is that right?

Speaker 1 (03:10):
Yeah, Well, it's cup on show. Week, and the rising's
on all week and the show let me just check
the show get is Thursday, Friday, Saturday.

Speaker 2 (03:19):
Okay. Well yeah, so it looks wet. So there's going
to be a load dropping down from the north basically,
and that looks to occur probably Wednesday into Thursday. So
the top of the North Island we got to watch
up for heavy rain could be a problem. That kind
of heavy rain that'll be Wednesday to Wednesday night. These

(03:41):
things will change with timing and the detail, but that's
the theme right now. And that same low is forecast
to drop south. It looks to give northern parts in
eastern parts of the South Island a good drop of rain.
It looks like Thursday from Canterbury North into Marlborough. Some
of that rain could be heavy. It won't last very long,

(04:01):
maybe twelve hours, but it could rain pretty good for
that period of time. And it's gonna stay warm. Generally speaking,
we're going to be unusually warm for the weekend into
early next week. We'll cool off maybe for a little
bit after that low passes Thursday, but generally speaking, warm
is going to be the theme. Could be a couple
of cooler days later next week, then we could see

(04:22):
another resurgence of some significant warmth later in the month.

Speaker 1 (04:27):
There we got Chris Brendolina from they we'll bring the jacket.
It sounds like the rain jacket to Christchurch won't be cold,
but it could be wet. And if you've got a
fascinator and you're at a cup on show week, you
might want to take an umbrella as well,