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Speaker 1 (00:09):
You're listening to a podcast from News talks'd be follow
this and our wide range of podcasts now on iHeartRadio Rewrap.
Speaker 2 (00:25):
Okay there and welcome to the Rewrap for Wednesday. All
the best bits from the Mic Husking breakfast on News Talks.
They'd be in a sillier package. I am Glen Hart today.
Central Bank Watch. It's become an obsession for some people.
Weird sports at the Olympics. We just can't let this go.
Who will the all black guests be on Friday? The
(00:50):
tensions building and we'll have a little bit more workplace bullying,
not talking about it, just doing it. But before any
of that jobs jobs, jobs, jobs figures out, what does
it mean?
Speaker 3 (01:03):
It's another chapter on this ongoing economic crisis of twenty
twenty one, twenty three, twenty four on four today with
the employment numbers or the unemployment numbers. This all ties in,
of course, with the broad idea from the Reserve Bank
that they have to take the life out of the
economy in order to see that inflation is tamed, and
therefore it's okay to go and drop the cash rate.
The unfortunate thing about the cash rate is that such
(01:23):
an emphasis has now been placed on it. It seems
to stand out in people's minds as some sort of panacea.
We're all waiting for these with this magic day that
will bring riches, growth, lights at the end of the tunnel,
and better tomorrows, and of course no such thing will happen.
It's being played in various parts of the world. In America,
they've gone from waiting for their cut because jobs and
spending was too strong, to Australia, where jobs seem so
(01:45):
plentiful that not only aren't they going to have a cut,
they may be getting a hike. This would also lead
apparently to political oblivion for the government as well as
economic disaster. As it turns out, they got a hold yesterday.
In America, they've gone from bullish optimism to fear of
a recession with a meager job's number out on Friday,
and you saw what happened yesterday. Here as far as
jobs go, it's getting worse. Trouble is the standoff between
(02:07):
the Reserve Bank qu forecast eventually five point five percent
unemployment versus the four point six or seven that's expected today.
In other words, while we're all misery and woe at
four point six or seven. We seemingly have a long
way to go. You think it's bad, you ain't seen
nothing yet, And yet is it really that bad? Well,
broadly yes, West Back are forecasting a big drop in
(02:28):
growth for the second quarter and another one for the
third quarter. Right, it's a recession, But specifically job losses
aren't bad. I mean, four point six ish isn't perfect,
but the best of times full employment is about three
five point five is historically about normal. Most people still
have work and that really isn't going to change, which
means it's not a crisis. It's miserable if you've lost
(02:50):
work in fifty seven. Others are our applying for the
same job you are. But of all the things that
are slowly killing us, New Zealand is leaving non tradable inflation, stuck, debt,
piling up businesses closing, the jobless number isn't the worst
of it, which in an ironic way, shows just how
bad these handful of years are proving to be.
Speaker 2 (03:08):
Before about how when I go on holiday, I ignore
all the news and then I end up being a
lot happier because it's essentially, as far as I'm concerned,
none of it's actually happening.
Speaker 4 (03:17):
Same with these sorts of numbers. Just don't count them.
Speaker 1 (03:20):
It's not rewrapped.
Speaker 2 (03:21):
There is the reason why I'm not in charge of
anything white money. I would never get a job at
her Central Bank anywhere anywhere in the world.
Speaker 3 (03:28):
Upside to COVID as most of us got into the
Reserve Bank thing, didn't we. I mean, we sort of
started thinking about it more than we ever have, had
a better understanding of what they're about and how profoundly
they've affected or continued to affect, all of our lives.
So the FED, I mean just this week, the Fed
not cutting until maybe September. But then the jobs report
comes out previous Friday, people panic, the recalls for emergency
(03:48):
cuts that won't happen, of course, And in a way
that's why we have Feds, not people who freak out
running around the place. Yesterday. The Australian Reserve Bank made
their call last week. There was the real suggestion, based
on job numbers there were too many of them. Not
only was there not going to be a cut, there
could be a hike. That led to headline right as
suggesting it would be the end of eld and easy
and that it was the decision of a generation. Next week,
(04:11):
we got our own Reserve Bank doing the same thing.
Now there's an amount, not a lot, but a bit,
a little bit of thought that they could cut. I
doubt they will. Jobs are not our problem. We certainly
don't have too many of those. But inflation has not
come down to a state that they will be comfortable
with that non tradable numbers five point four. That's not
cutting territory. Most retail banks, have you heard a moment ago,
say one or two cuts by the end of the year.
(04:32):
I think they're probably right, which means, in this bit's
important that the Reserve Bank is wrong, and they're currently
telling us they're not cutting until well into next year.
I don't think they're actually that sure. But the big
clue the game has changed. Although we all march to
our own beat, we're nevertheless entwined. If the feed in
America cuts, we're going to have to. We cannot be
an outlier. We are so flotsam and jetsam esque. We
(04:55):
go where the world goes. Basically, of course, what was
what has sort of rooted the US market in particular,
is this tech obsession. A bloke in a leather jacket
made some neat chips and everybody drank the kool aid
on what AI was going to do with the world.
It's another bubble basically, not AI itself, necessarily, but the
hype around the next cool thing made by the next
(05:18):
cool company. A lot of activity on markets is not
rooted in basics or fundamentals or common sense, but noise
and speculative greed. Basically that thing the good lords, while
the central banks don't dabble in it. Make no mistake,
this is all a mess. I mean, economically in New
Zealand's not doing remotely well, but increasingly the white heat
of expectation shines on central banks from Wall Street to
(05:39):
Shiftley Square yesterday in Australia to the Terrace next week.
Speaker 4 (05:43):
Seriously, I mean it.
Speaker 2 (05:45):
Don't be obsessed with interest rates and cats and hikes
and whatever the OCRs and whatever the Central Bank of
you know out in Mongolia is doing.
Speaker 4 (05:56):
Don't go there.
Speaker 2 (05:58):
It's a it's a number for stoomed rabbit hole.
Speaker 4 (06:03):
You don't need to go down.
Speaker 2 (06:04):
Rerap now a rabbit hole. We all seem to go
down every Olympiad as which sports should be there and
which shouldn't. And I think Mike's got this one completely wrong.
Speaker 3 (06:18):
It's the Olympics. I've questioned over the last week and
a half some of the stuff that we're seeing there.
And I watched the wall climbing, the speed wall climbing
this morning as a thing that you go, jeez, they're
pretty fit. They're pretty cool. Yep, that's impressive. I've climbed
a wall, not as fast as they have, but so
they're fast. Good on them. Is it an Olympic sport? No,
(06:38):
we are in the C two canoe sprint. That's the canoe,
the old what I would call, without getting in trouble
with anybody, the old Indian canoe, and you go down
on one knee with one paddle. There's two of you
in the canoe in your paddle. We're in that. In
our heat, we were more than forty seconds slower. Forty
seconds is a two minute race. Forty seconds slower than
(07:01):
the next worst finisher. In other words, we're hopeless. We
qualified for the Olympics in a race against just two
other crews. One of those crews involved people who are
aged seventy. This is the Olympic Games, so we beat
some seventy year olds. Still, not that good go to Paris,
(07:25):
turn out to be pretty hopeless, and you call that
an Olympic sport, I mean, give me a break.
Speaker 2 (07:30):
So I'm even after all that, I'm a bit unclear
whether Mike thinks that it shouldn't be at the Olympics
because we will bad at it.
Speaker 4 (07:40):
Or just because it is what it is. It's not
a recent addition.
Speaker 2 (07:46):
It's been there since nineteen thirty six. They've been doing
the canoe sprint like that. I won knee. I've watched
it at several previous Olympics. I mean, I'm not an
avid fan or anything, but I've seen it that it's
on that is a thing. So I'm assuming that he's
just mad that we went in it and we were
so bad at it. But then again, the there's a
(08:08):
story behind that too, because it's something to do with
qualifying for the other kind of kayaking that we do.
Speaker 4 (08:13):
We actually sit in the boat.
Speaker 2 (08:16):
I think you qualify for both, and so you can
go and boat, so why not give it a go? Right,
I think I've got that right. I might have that
last bit wrong, but I'm definitely right about that. They've
been doing it since nineteen thirty six. Part until you
get rid of the torturing horses to music event, you know,
the one where you make them dance, dance or I'll
whip you that event, and the shooting things with guns
(08:42):
events out of the Olympics. Let's not worry about something
that they've been doing. You know, since Hitler was in
charge the rewrap right, I didn't expect to get so
passionate about that. Let's try and calm things down. It's
cool things over, especially with the rugby union.
Speaker 3 (09:02):
We know who we've got on the program Friday from
the ORBS. It amazing with the or Blacks. Haven't updated
you on that. But it was very exciting meeting, and
I'm told was an exciting meeting. Was a convivial meeting.
Fireworks probably fireworks meeting anyway.
Speaker 4 (09:17):
Und of it been.
Speaker 3 (09:19):
We've got a resolution, as it turns out, and I'm
very proud of the resolution because it was only as
a result of me whining that they rang up and
they went, oh, I'm new to the job. What can
we do to assist? Which is not the first time
they've rung up. He doesn't talk like that, does he?
Speaker 4 (09:33):
To be fair to him, No, so I think anybody does.
Speaker 3 (09:35):
I don't think anyone does. Anyway, So they come up
and we had this meeting and they've guaranteed us in
all black each and every Friday before a test. There
is some loose interpretation the boss because it was that
sort of meeting. The Boss was there and he said,
a marquee player. That was the word he used with
us the other day, wasn't it was? He goes, oh,
it was a fab fabulous meeting. We're going to have
(09:56):
a marquee player. And I said, what sort of marquee
player would you have in mind? Jace, I said, And
that's where it got a bit loose around the edges.
He sort of thought he might have oversold that.
Speaker 4 (10:07):
Potentillar judge before it happened.
Speaker 2 (10:10):
Well, no, that's true, and they probably were listening avidly
to that very interview. And it's bound to be either
a hooker or a lock. I would say, they and
they'll have expert opinions. I'd line out jumping and.
Speaker 3 (10:21):
Well, the bare minimum is somebody's going to be actually
playing the game. So that doesn't make the marquee, just
makes them available. And then next way, so anyway, we'll
see how we go this, right, But the upshot is this.
The good news is this, we've reached a resolution. They're
going to be more all blacks on the Mike Hosking
breakfast and that is no bad thing.
Speaker 2 (10:40):
And all the while our boss was standing out in
the office with his hands on his hips, shaking his head.
Speaker 4 (10:50):
Well we were I thought.
Speaker 2 (10:51):
We were just sort of celebrating a good arrangement with
the Red Rugby.
Speaker 4 (10:55):
There there's anything wrong with that?
Speaker 1 (10:57):
Was there the rerap?
Speaker 4 (10:59):
Were we bullying him indirectly?
Speaker 2 (11:02):
And are you allowed to do that or is it
just the direct stuff that you're not allowed to do?
Speaker 3 (11:06):
Mike, Come on, let's see who's telling Paul he's pulled
the tapes. As Mark asked, you can't bring you can't
pull the tapes. It's not because it's not how it works.
I watch Question Time every day and I watched yesterday,
and the tapes don't cover You can really only hear
what's going on in terms of the person who's got
the microphone open and a little bit of noise around
them when it gets particularly raw, because you may occasionally
(11:27):
hear something, but in general, there's a lot of muttering
that's never captured by any microphone at all.
Speaker 2 (11:32):
So it's good to hear that you telling me how
hopeless I am is bullying.
Speaker 3 (11:38):
Well, that's only according to Ginny, I just say it's
a critique, and so you know, it's.
Speaker 4 (11:43):
Just at a shorthand of you're doing a hopeless job.
Speaker 3 (11:46):
Yeah, exactly right.
Speaker 4 (11:47):
And then that's as.
Speaker 3 (11:48):
Opposed to you being hopeless or you're a hope. That
really was a hopeless job, Glenn, as opposed to Glynn,
you are hopeless?
Speaker 4 (11:56):
Right, yeah, okay, quite a good. It's a fine line,
isn't difficult?
Speaker 2 (12:00):
And also as just saying facts like I am hopeless.
That's I don't think that can really be considered bullying.
It's just a fact, isn't it. It can't Can you
hurt somebody's feelings by telling the truth. I am hopeless?
(12:22):
I am Gleann, I mean, And I will see you
tomorrow with another rewrap, assuming I can make everything work,
push all the right buttons?
Speaker 4 (12:31):
How can it be?
Speaker 1 (12:39):
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