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Joel Labi: Joe Biden, Donald Trump and the latest US news - Politics Central
Politics Central
Six months from Election Day, President Donald Trump's prospects for winning a second term have been jolted by a historic pandemic and a cratering economy, rattling some of his Republican allies and upending the playbook his campaign had hoped to be using by now against Democrat Joe Biden.
Trump's standing has slumped as the nation's focus on him has intensified during the coronavirus outbreak, revealing an erratic and often self-absorbed approach to the crisis. The result: He's losing ground in some battleground states with key constituencies, including senior citizens and college-educated men — all without his Democratic challenger having devoted much energy or money to denting the president.
"It's Donald J. Trump versus the coronavirus and the recovery," said Scott Reed, the senior political strategist for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. "Biden is a sideshow."
For some Republicans, the prospect of an election that is almost wholly a referendum on Trump is unnerving. Though the president's base remains loyal, a significant portion of GOP voters view him skeptically on a range of personal qualities. He pulled many of those voters to his side in the 2016 election by drawing an aggressive contrast with Democrat Hillary Clinton. He planned to do the same in 2020 with Biden, with the added tailwind of a surging American economy.
Now, that economy is crumbling around Trump. A staggering 30 million Americans have lost their jobs in the past six weeks as businesses have shuttered due to stay-at-home restrictions aimed at containing the pandemic. One of the president's own economic advisers predicted nationwide unemployment could reach 20% by June.
When his back is against the wall, Trump often responds by lashing out at a political opponent, hoping to expose flaws that detract from his own. But with Americans consumed by the pandemic and economic uncertainty, Republicans close to the president and his campaign say Trump's team will struggle to break through with any attacks on Biden for some time. Instead, the public's focus remains squarely on Trump and his handling of the health and economic crises.
"Trump is completely dominating the public's attention, and it's not helping him," said Alex Conant, a Republican strategist who advised Sen. Marco Rubio's 2016 presidential campaign.
In public polling, the president's approval rating hasn't dropped significantly since the fast-moving virus swept through parts of the U.S. According to a poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research conducted in late April, 42% of Americans approved of Trump's job performance. That's about where it's been for the past few months.
But both Democratic and Republican pollsters and strategists say they are seeing signs of weakness in critical states and demographic groups. Those findings are confirmed by some of the Trump campaign's own data. When briefed on campaign polling in recent days, Trump erupted in anger, according to several people with knowledge of the conversation.
Private polling shows Trump in a weaker position in several pivotal states, including Michigan, Florida and Wisconsin. He's also sagging with senior citizens and college-educated men, according to GOP operatives who have viewed recent polling. Some pollsters said they've seen signs that lower-educated women are also drifting away from the president.
Independents are largely irrelevant, the operatives said, but only because they had already abandoned the president before the pandemic. A half-dozen operatives and pollsters spoke on condition of anonymity in order to discuss private data.
Trump's campaign argues the dynamic will reset after the president and his team can unleash a full array of attacks on Biden, who became the presumptive Democratic nominee just as the pandemic began bearing down on the United States. Trump campaign aides say they see vulnerabilities in Biden's previous dealings with China...
Trump's standing has slumped as the nation's focus on him has intensified during the coronavirus outbreak, revealing an erratic and often self-absorbed approach to the crisis. The result: He's losing ground in some battleground states with key constituencies, including senior citizens and college-educated men — all without his Democratic challenger having devoted much energy or money to denting the president.
"It's Donald J. Trump versus the coronavirus and the recovery," said Scott Reed, the senior political strategist for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. "Biden is a sideshow."
For some Republicans, the prospect of an election that is almost wholly a referendum on Trump is unnerving. Though the president's base remains loyal, a significant portion of GOP voters view him skeptically on a range of personal qualities. He pulled many of those voters to his side in the 2016 election by drawing an aggressive contrast with Democrat Hillary Clinton. He planned to do the same in 2020 with Biden, with the added tailwind of a surging American economy.
Now, that economy is crumbling around Trump. A staggering 30 million Americans have lost their jobs in the past six weeks as businesses have shuttered due to stay-at-home restrictions aimed at containing the pandemic. One of the president's own economic advisers predicted nationwide unemployment could reach 20% by June.
When his back is against the wall, Trump often responds by lashing out at a political opponent, hoping to expose flaws that detract from his own. But with Americans consumed by the pandemic and economic uncertainty, Republicans close to the president and his campaign say Trump's team will struggle to break through with any attacks on Biden for some time. Instead, the public's focus remains squarely on Trump and his handling of the health and economic crises.
"Trump is completely dominating the public's attention, and it's not helping him," said Alex Conant, a Republican strategist who advised Sen. Marco Rubio's 2016 presidential campaign.
In public polling, the president's approval rating hasn't dropped significantly since the fast-moving virus swept through parts of the U.S. According to a poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research conducted in late April, 42% of Americans approved of Trump's job performance. That's about where it's been for the past few months.
But both Democratic and Republican pollsters and strategists say they are seeing signs of weakness in critical states and demographic groups. Those findings are confirmed by some of the Trump campaign's own data. When briefed on campaign polling in recent days, Trump erupted in anger, according to several people with knowledge of the conversation.
Private polling shows Trump in a weaker position in several pivotal states, including Michigan, Florida and Wisconsin. He's also sagging with senior citizens and college-educated men, according to GOP operatives who have viewed recent polling. Some pollsters said they've seen signs that lower-educated women are also drifting away from the president.
Independents are largely irrelevant, the operatives said, but only because they had already abandoned the president before the pandemic. A half-dozen operatives and pollsters spoke on condition of anonymity in order to discuss private data.
Trump's campaign argues the dynamic will reset after the president and his team can unleash a full array of attacks on Biden, who became the presumptive Democratic nominee just as the pandemic began bearing down on the United States. Trump campaign aides say they see vulnerabilities in Biden's previous dealings with China...
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