Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Whoa baby. It's cold outside, folks. If you're still at
better you just put on a pot of coffee, or
better yet, turn on a fireplace and make some hot
chocolate for the kids. When I got up this morning,
it was a bomby thirty eight degrees. Now we're talking.
This is spring in upstate New York. It's almost summer.
(00:22):
Isn't going to be summer in a few weeks? Holy cow,
mother nature, what did we do? Come on? Warm us
up a little. Good morning, folks. Thank you for tuning
in today. Thank you for tuning in every weekend, every
Saturday at ten, every Sunday at eight. And I truly
I can't begin to thank you enough. I would love
(00:45):
to talk to you. Katie and I are sitting here
sipping on our cup of coffee, and we would love
to point you in the right direction. Get you set up,
tongue tied, it's too early or I'm too wired. Get
you set up so that you can have a chance
to retire with the quality of lifestyle that you want.
(01:06):
I always say, if you want to work during retirement years,
that's fine. Do it because you're bored, silly, But don't
do it because you have to and that means that
you have to be prepared. Whatever your retirement age is,
fifty five, sixty, sixty five, seventy I said yesterday, warned
Buppet ninety four. I mean, whatever your retirement age is,
(01:29):
that's okay. The key is to know how much you
need to have to draw on the average social security
I said yesterday about twenty thousand, but it's actually close
to twenty five thousand. So that's good news, right. If
you only need twenty five thousand to live on, perfect,
you don't need to save any money. If you're married,
(01:49):
the average obviously double that fifty thousand dollars. If that's
all you need, perfect, you don't need to save any money.
But if you need seventy five or one hundred thousand, whatever,
that number is a year to live on to have
the quality of life that you want. Listen, when you
(02:09):
work in decades and I mean decades, you deserve to
have some good years during retirement, and you have to
be prepared. So if social Security is not going to
cut it, if you're single at twenty five thousand or
married at let's say an average of fifty thousand, if
that's not enough, come on, we got to start saving
(02:29):
some money. If you're not saving ten to fifteen percent
of your salary weekend week out, you're probably not saving
a lot. And I know that sounds like a lot,
but folks, that's how much you should be putting away
until you do some really good comprehensive financial planning. If
you don't have a clue, then you need to start
(02:52):
thinking about saving ten at least ten percent of your
salary into a retirement plan somehow, some and if you
start to met as. Sooner you do that, the better
off you'll be. Folks. It's expensive to retire, so I
want to get you prepared. One eight hundred talk w
(03:14):
g y one eight hundred eight two five five nine
four nine Any questions whatsoever? One eight hundred eight two
five fifty nine forty nine. Let's go to the phone lines.
We have Ron from Northville. Ron, tell me how warm
it is up there?
Speaker 2 (03:33):
Well, it's not terrible. I'm sitting on the back deck
looking at the lake. Is nice and calm here chilling,
not too bad?
Speaker 1 (03:40):
Nice, nice? What can I help you with this morning?
Speaker 2 (03:45):
Anyway? I am I've got exposure already through the Baron
Partners one face. I love Ron Public excuse me.
Speaker 1 (03:56):
I love Ron Baron. Ron Baron is one of the
all time great if you're going to buy an active
managed mutual fund, Ron Baron is truly one of the
one of the great money managers out there, I believe
it or not. I used to have Ron Barron on
my radio show when I was investing in mutual funds
and everything thirty one years ago. Ron Barron was my
(04:19):
my my guests on the show more than more than once.
I used to like to have some of the money
managers on there. So he's a good he's a good manager.
Speaker 2 (04:31):
Yeah. Anyway, I have quite an exposure to SpaceX already. Yeah,
and I know it's going public in June twelfth, I believe.
And I want to know what your thoughts of where
that's stock gonna go to?
Speaker 1 (04:46):
Yeah, that stock may go to the moon, no pun intended.
Hang on to it obviously, Ron Barron, you know with
in that Partner's fun on you, I guess let's get
the Ron straight right. You're Ron from Northville, Ron Baron,
who manages the Baron Partner Fund. His number one holding
(05:08):
is Tesla twenty four percent almost so just about a
quarter of that mutual fund is invested in Tesla and
believe it or not, the top ten stocks. This is
how Ron Baron manages money. He has a total of
twenty eight stocks. The top ten stocks represent eighty four
(05:28):
percent of the Baron Partner fund. And that's pretty darn good.
You have Tesla being number one, arch Capital, MSCI, Hyatt Hotels,
Charles Schwab believe it or not, is in the top ten.
You know, he's a good focused manager and you are
going to have representation of SpaceX, and I like SpaceX.
(05:53):
I would let Ron Baron do his thing and just
manage that fund and really, you know, take take the ride.
Speaker 2 (06:03):
Yeah, I know, I read that through some shareholders concerns.
He's limited. He actually sold some of the Tesla last
year and he's put more exposure into the space Ax now.
But what I see, it's like thirty percent is not
with SpaceX unless less than that is in Tesla that
(06:24):
was like eighteen percent.
Speaker 1 (06:26):
Yeah, well, I mean the appreciation basically SpaceX is going
to be about thirty percent of net assets. But we're
going back. You know that report was September twenty twenty five.
I don't know exactly. This is the problem with mutual
funds getting exact information. It's not like exchange traded funds,
(06:48):
so you're going to have to.
Speaker 2 (06:50):
Do some I still get. My question is what do
you think SpaceX is going to do it with.
Speaker 1 (06:55):
I think SpaceX is going to go to the Moon.
I told you that.
Speaker 2 (06:58):
Well that's fine. Well then I'm happy.
Speaker 1 (07:02):
Now listen, I'm either going to be right or wrong.
And when when SpaceX? Not the first day or week,
but give it a month, let's talk. I'm wanting to
call me back and let's see where SpaceX is a month.
Speaker 2 (07:17):
Actually, actually I saw on the internet the other day
somebody said that one hundred thousand dollars with the SpaceX,
we're going to eighteen million.
Speaker 1 (07:25):
Yeah. Well, you know, there's a lot so funny story round.
There's longtime listeners that have recently become a client of ours,
and I went down to visit them. They were in
the Detroit office two weeks ago and they said, we
have a present for you, Steve. I said, you do,
(07:45):
I said, I love presents. They pull out and this
is real crystal, a crystal ball that was in her
family forever. She said, I hear you talk about your
crystal ball on radio all the time, and how you
don't have one. We wanted to give you money. So
now I really have a crystal ball. It sits in
(08:05):
my Saratoga conference room. And I look at that crystal ball.
It's pretty, it's real crystal. But I do have a
crystal ball.
Speaker 2 (08:14):
Now, well, hope you read it and say stay sex
going to the moon.
Speaker 1 (08:20):
I think it will. But I'm either going to be
right or wrong. So a month after it goes public,
I want you to call back. You and I are
going to talk about this.
Speaker 2 (08:30):
All right. Sounds like a plan.
Speaker 1 (08:32):
Ron you'd be well, stay, stay warm, and more importantly,
stay healthy. Okay, thank you for calling one eight hundred
eight two five five nine four nine one eight hundred
eight two five fifty nine forty nine. Any questions, folks,
I mean and and and this is the rub you
heard me say yesterday. We manage about one point seven
(08:55):
billion dollars. We we do not own one mutual fund
and we have obviously because I talked about annudies yesterday.
I'm not a fan of anudies, never have been. We
obviously don't own any annuities. We manage our client's money.
We have mostly exchange traded funds. They're very efficient, they're
(09:16):
very good. Our returns I shared with you year to
date up seventeen percent. Our equity sleeve, the S and
P year to date is up about eleven percent, so
we're out performing it by almost seven seven percentage points.
And my investment team is doing an amazing job, like
(09:37):
an amazing job. And this is so Baron Partners Fund
retail shares. If you look over the last fifteen years,
the average return year in year out nineteen percent, year in,
year out nineteen percent. When you look at QQQ, guess
(09:59):
what they ever return over the last fifteen years is
nineteen point five percent year in year out. There you
have a good, well managed, actively managed mutual fund like
Baron Partners. And believe me, Ron Baron, the manager is
one of the best in the business. This is a
(10:20):
very focused fund. It obviously has you know, I just
shared with you the top ten holdings represent eighty four
percent of this fund and that's that's a lot. It's
very focused. Ron Baron is a kind of a let's say,
buy and hold guy, like in his Baron fund, he said,
(10:42):
Ralph Lauran for forever through three different styles, right, don't
they change styles? How many years. He's owned that that long.
Thirty one years ago, I think Polo was Ron Barn's
top top holding. But he you know, he's got some
some some good investments that have done well, but it's
very focused. Now. When you compare that to QQQ same
(11:05):
return over the last fifteen years, you're in year out
saying average between nineteen and twenty percent. The difference is
the top ten holdings of NASDAK represent just about almost half,
not eighty five percent, and NASDAK has one hundred and
three holdings, whereas the Baron Partner Fund has only twenty
(11:27):
eight holdings. But it's a good fund, and you know,
out of all actively managed funds, that's that's one you're
you're taking on a lot of risk because there's only
twenty eight holdings and Tesla is a quarter of that.
So if you want exposure to Tesla, that's that's the
one for you. One eight hundred eight two five five
(11:50):
nine four nine, one eight hundred eighty two five fifty
nine forty nine. Folks, let me take a quick break.
Don't go anywhere. I'll see inteen quick seconds. Hello, folks,
thank you for letting me wet my whistle. What eight
hundred eight, two, five, five, nine, four nine are the
phone numbers. So you know, another good week. Nine weeks,
(12:12):
running baby nine weeks. This is why you can't get
scared out of the market. Not even a war in
the Middle East should scare you out of the market.
Let the market do what it does best, high to low.
Pete de Trough fourteen percent swing over the last forty
seven years. Fourteen percent from high to low. That's how
(12:32):
much the market swings on average. This year we go
to war in the Middle East. The worst that the
S and P was down at the lowest point was
less than ten percent. When I woke up to that war,
I thought for sure the markets would drop big time.
And at the worst, at the worst down less than
(12:53):
ten percent. This is a resilient market. Nine weeks. We've
had up weeks. This past week, the Nastak composite up
two point four percent QQQ and for our clients QQQN
up almost three percent this week alone, the S and
P up one point four percent. Even the Russell two
(13:15):
thousand was up one point seventy five percent. Year to date,
the S and P is up eleven percent, close to
let's say twelve and a half percent with dividends NASDAK
up sixteen percent, QQQ and QQQN up twenty percent over
just a smidgeon over twenty percent year to date, folks.
(13:36):
That's pretty good. And if you listen to that, you know,
saying selling may go away, come back in November. For
the month of May, NASNAK is up over eight percent,
the S and P is up over five percent. That
is only the month of May, folks, So that's selling
may and go away, saying if you listen to that, oh,
(13:59):
you out and you missed out big. You can't. You
can't listen. Have a well diversified portfolio, take on the
amount of risk that you're comfortable taking on, and let
the markets do their thing. They'll be up. I guarantee
you they'll be down. And guess what history has shown.
The market's always gone back and made all new highs,
(14:25):
new all time highs. The market. It's funny how it
keeps doing that. So you know, we finished Friday at
record highs again. You know, the rally driven mostly by technology,
artificial intelligence, rate related stocks, information technology. You know, for
the month sixteen to eighteen percent during the month. If
(14:47):
you look at just the information technology. You know, corporate
earnings a major driver. First quarter SMP earnings were approaching
twenty nine percent year over year. And if I told
you I May first that we'd be dealing with inflation concerns,
interest rate uncertainty, iron conflicts still going on, would you
(15:10):
have guessed that the SMP was up over five percent
and NANSDAC up over eight percent for the month. No,
you wouldn't. I mean, how could you? It just doesn't
seem possible. It's crazy. But the stock market is not
the economy, folks. The stock market is a discounting mechanism
(15:31):
that looks and you've heard me say this for thirty
one years on the radio. The stock market looks at
the LECs three, six, nine, twelve months, that's how much.
That's how much. The stock market looks ahead. So that
takes the news today. But the news today is already
(15:51):
built into it. And I'm telling you two months April
and May, we had the and P up about fifteen percent,
and you have NANSDAG up twenty eight percent just April
and May. What a beautiful thing. That's that's why you
hear me say I am invested just like my clients.
(16:14):
The only difference is I'm one hundred percent in the
stock market. I could care less when the stock market
goes down. I'm still working. I get a paycheck. I
don't need to dip into my savings, thank God. And
when I do, I'll have, as you hear me say
often almost weekly, one to two years worth of what
I need to live on set off to the side,
(16:36):
so I'm not gambling. And that's how we protect our clients.
That gives us up to two years to manage the portfolio.
In just about every stock market correction has recovered within
two years. So you can't let those headlines get to
your folks. You can't think with your heart. You always
have to think rationally with information. And that's why our
(16:58):
clients engage our SERVI is they literally put their full
trust and faith in us to manage their wealth. That's
why they come to us, and we do I think
a stellar job between managing their wealth and doing all
the financial planning and tax planning. I talked yesterday about
tax planning. We do more tax planning. Then I can
(17:20):
begin to tell you I have, you know, a pretty
good team. I got a pretty good stable. I have
two CPAs, I have no actually I have three CPAs,
I'm sorry, an irs and road agent, and nine CFP professionals.
I got a pretty good stable, folks, No pun intended.
(17:40):
I guess I'm getting ready for Belmont next week, the
last leg of the Triple Crown, and then we're gonna
have a good summer, folks. I think horse racing, and
Saratoga goes to Labor Day right after the Belmont week
next week. They'll take a couple of weeks off, but
they're back Friday, July third, right through Labor Day. Right
Labor Day. That's the longest ever. So if you like
(18:04):
horse racing, man, you're gonna have your fill of it
this summer. And even if you don't like horse racing, folks,
I say you often. And I just had this conversation
the other night at one of the fundraisers that I
was at for the Gary Date Foundation, Stewart's the Date family.
They give back so much to the community and I
(18:25):
respect them so much. But I just had this conversation
there that the that the hold on. I got a
wet my whistle. Fifteen second break, Katie, Oh, folks, thank you,
I had I had my whistle. Anyway, the markets are
are resilient beyond your wildest dreams. And that's what stocks,
(18:47):
for the most part, trayed on. Are the fundamentals of
the economy, corporate earnings, jobs, inflation. Uh. You know, the
data that the FED looks at is pretty intense, and
they're looking for inflation. And when inflation bumps up a little,
that means that. And I don't think the Fed will
be lowering interest rates anytime too soon. But we have
(19:10):
a new Federal Reserve share, Kevin worsh so maybe, just
maybe he will be lower interest rates. So you raise
interest rates when inflation is rearing its ugly head because
you want to slow down the price of goods and
the price of services and goods from going up too much.
That's why the FED raises interest rates to slow down
(19:31):
the economy, kind of tapping the brakes on the economy.
That's what you see when you see interest rates go up,
and when you see the FED lower Fed Funds rate,
that means they're trying to stimulate the economy. They want
more folks like you and I and businesses to go
out and borrow more money and reinvest it into the economy.
(19:54):
And that's why they lower interest rates. So when inflation
looks like it's hot, and it's hotter than then the
FED would like. You know, J Powell just stepped down
in his Fed Reserve chair and his target was two percent.
I'm guessing Kevin's target will probably be the same. We'll
see and when he comes out after his first FED
Fund's Open Market Committee meeting, we'll see what he has.
(20:19):
He's a pretty brilliant guy, and he happens to be homegrown.
He is from Loudon, Bill and we're you know, listen,
that's that's big. That's big when you have a local
neighbor of ours that that is now the FED Reserve chair,
that puts us on the map. That's that's really pretty good.
One eight hundred eight two five five, nine, four nine,
(20:42):
any questions, give me a call. So you know who
he had wasn't oil. So I just told you SMP
up over five percent, NASDAC up over eight percent just
for the month of May alone. Oil drop. And that's
a beautiful thing. These Oil is a big part of inflation. Obviously,
(21:05):
you need to put gas in your car to get
back and forth to work. And if you're not putting
gas in your car, if you're taking the bus, they're
putting gas in their car, right down to the pizza
delivery guy in the door. Dash delivery folks, they're putting
gas in their car, and gas oil. The price of
oil really reflects a big part of inflation. So it
(21:27):
was nice to see the price of oil down eight
percent in the month of May, and we needed that,
you know, because of this war, the price of oil
was up, so having it fall is a good thing.
You want the price of oil to come down. So
here we're sitting at about eighty seven dollars barrel. In
(21:51):
the high was one hundred and almost one hundred and
thirteen dollars a barrel. Well, we're coming up to the
bottom of the hour. You are listening to Talk Money
brought to you by Bouchet and Andrew Group, where we
help our clients prioritize their health while we manage their
wealth for life. We're going to take a quick break
for the news. We are not going anywhere, and I
(22:12):
hope you don't either fill up your cup of coffee
if you're still in bed, get up, put the fireplace on,
put some hot cocoa on for the kids or for yourself,
and come back right after the news. I'll be here
one eight hundred eight two five five nine four nine.
The bone mines are open. Katie and I are here, ready,
(22:33):
willing and able to take your call. I would love
to talk to you about your portfolio, your plan. One
eight hundred eighty two five nine four nine. I think
Katie plays some pretty nice jazzy music. Well, folks, it's
warming up out there. I woke up it was thirty
eight degrees. It's up to fifty degrees now. Oh, we
(22:55):
got a lot to be thankful for today, don't we.
Living in the great Northeast where we if gray sky's cold,
rainy weather or snow on the ground. And believe me,
at thirty eight degrees, I'm sure there's probably places in
the mountains where they're worse snow. I know my wife
came from Tupper Lake, and I'm sure her whole family
up there has snow. Folks, thank you for tuning in,
(23:18):
Thank you for hanging in through the news. I can't
thank you enough. I truly appreciate it. I'm here to
help you. My producer, Katie is here to help get
you on with me, and we are ready for your call.
If you have any questions, any questions whatsoever? One eight
hundred talk WGY one eight hundred eighty two five five
(23:41):
nine four nine Any questions whatsoever, folks, give me a call.
So just before the news break, I talked about the
S and P beating up over five percent, dance that
cup over eight percent in the month of May alone.
Now it's that twenty eight percent for April and May combined,
and year to date, the nansdak QQQ is up twenty percent.
(24:04):
Sm P, you know, up over five percent for May,
up you know, seventeen percent for April and May year
to date right now, with dividends up about eleven and
a half percent. That's not bad, folks, that's not bad.
I mean, with all the headlines and we're not even
(24:24):
you know, we're just just five months into the year.
That's pretty good. But I talked about oil basically falling
nineteen percent in May and the international benchmark. You know,
that's the biggest monthly drop since March of twenty twenty.
So we were down just eleven percent just this week alone.
(24:48):
As I said, Brent was down nineteen percent. The US
oil benchmark fell seventeen percent in May. So it's all good.
When when the price of oil goes down, you'll see
the price of gas come down a little bit. You'll
see the price of gas come down. And that's good news.
I mean, listen, if we go back just let's just
(25:11):
go back to the beginning of COVID. The price of
gas was about two twenty five two sixty a gallon
in twenty twenty one, about three point thirty a gallon.
The peak was twenty twenty two. We are not at
the peak today, folks. The peak was twenty twenty two,
five dollars and one penny. That was the peak for
(25:32):
the price of gas. Twenty twenty three about three dollars
and fifty cents, twenty twenty four, about three dollars and
twenty cents, twenty twenty five, three dollars and ten cents.
But with the war in Iran, the price of oil
from last year three ten a gallon is now nationally
about four forty a gallon. Every obviously, every every community,
(25:56):
every state is different, depending on the taxes and so forth.
But we're looking at about four forty nationally. And when
you see this war come to an end, this war
will come to an end, folks. The world's not coming
to an end. This war will come to an end.
It's like when the market goes down, investors think that
the world's coming to an end, and it never comes
(26:18):
to an end. It doesn't. It's fol it all goes
up and down, but it doesn't come to an end.
This war will come to an end. And when that happens,
I think you're going to see the price of gas
really fall because the price of oil will fall once
iron and the Strait of horn Mouse, which plays a
major role in this, when that's closed down. I think
(26:41):
that accounts for about twenty percent of oil flowing, especially
to Asian countries. So you know, listen, oil up over
a dollar or one hundred dollars a barrel because of
this war. And as I said, sitting here today, we're
looking at eighty seven dollars a barrel for US crew
(27:04):
compared to one hundred and twelve dollars a barrel, which
was the highest. So that's pretty good that it came down,
and it can't come down quick enough. So when this
war is over, I think two things you'll see. Obviously
the price of oil come down, which relates to the
(27:26):
price of gas at the pump. And I also think
you'll see the stock market continue its rally. I think
it'll be good news when the war comes to an end.
Right now. That's the dark cloud hanging over the stock
market is the war and Iran. So it was nice
to see oil down. It was nice to see stocks up.
On Friday, President Trump wrote that he would be meeting
(27:49):
with his team to make a final determination about a
piece deal with Iron. Well, you know, when it happens,
it happens. I don't get anxious over it anymore because
how many you know, resolutions had we looked at over
the last several weeks. It's like, oh, yeah, it's going
to end by you know, tomorrow, within forty eight hours.
(28:10):
And it still hasn't ended, but it will end. I'm
hopeful that it will end. So it was nice on
Friday to see NASDAC and SMP close to record highs.
I mean, forget that sell and may go away. I mean,
what a robust month we had the NASAC composite, as
I said, up, you know, over twenty five percent, and
(28:36):
that's the best two month climbs since two thousand and two.
So that's pretty darn, pretty darn good. Investors are betting
that corporate earnings will continue to add to the higher
stock prices. In the first quarter, year over year earnings
growth for companies in the SMP is about twenty eight percent.
(28:57):
This is according to fact Set calculation based on actual
results and analyst estimates. If maintained, the index will lock
in its highest learning's growth since the fourth quarter of
twenty one. Artificial intelligence. Where would we be if we
didn't talk about artificial intelligence? And am I correct? And
(29:17):
I'm telling you, folks, if you haven't played around with it,
go and play around with it, get in this sandbox
and really have fun. Artificial intelligence, I believe is here
to stay. We've taken a position in it. Of the
reasons why you're to date with the SMP up about
eleven percent, we're up almost eighteen percent. Our equity sleep
(29:39):
because of the investments that my investment committee have made.
Believe me, it's hard to outperform the SMP, and we're
outperforming it by about seven percentage points. So I'm real happy,
real proud of my investment team. And they're doing a
good job. They're diligent about the investments that we have.
(30:00):
When we take some tactical positions, they are really doing
an amazing job. So artificial intelligence, you know, it's a
big catalyst for corporate profits. Del for instance, up thirty
three percent Friday, after the technology company raised its full
quarter outlook and said first quarter sales climbed by about
(30:21):
eighty eight percent on demand for AI products. AI is
artificial intelligence, So we'll see what happens. Obviously, we have
inflation rearing and s ugly had from some of the
latest reason readings. We had the war in iron. There's
still a lot of uncertainty. You have consumer sentiment at
(30:44):
a low, so things aren't all rosy out there. We
need to have the overall picture be a little brighter
so that consumers feel better. They make up two thirds
of the economy. Think about that. The consumer makes up
two thirds of the economy, and the consumer is really
(31:05):
important folks. And when they're not feeling too good and
they're not out there spending money, it shows. So we
want the consumer to feel really good. We want them
to feel safe, have job security, make a decent pay
so they can go out and do some shopping. One
eight hundred eighty two five five nine four nine. Any questions,
(31:28):
any questions whatsoever. Give me a call. I would love
to talk to You love to talk to you. So
let's talk a little bit about social security. You talk
about having your headspin. Whenever I talk about social security,
my head spins. There's so much, you know, so much
to think about when it comes to social security. Myth
number one, everyone should take social Security at sixty two. No,
(31:54):
that's not true. Myth number two everyone should wait until age. No,
that's not true either. It all depends, folks, It all depends.
So why are those two numbers important? Well, sixty two
is the earliest that somebody can start taking social Security,
(32:14):
and when they do, they are taking a huge discount
by you know, almost thirty percent less than waiting until
full retirement age. So whatever your full retirement age is,
let's make believe it's sixty seven. If you take it
at sixty two, you're taking about thirty percent less than
(32:34):
you would get at that full retirement age. Does that
make sense? It makes sense if obviously, if you need
the money, it makes sense. If you feel you're not
going to have a long life expectancy, then it makes
sense to take it. If you're still working, it does
(32:55):
not make sense to take it because you're going to
be giving most of it back. Because you're going to
be penalized. And why is age seventy important Because when
you do reach your full retirement age, then Social Security
grows about eight percent a year until you make until
you reach age seventy, eight percent a year until you
(33:15):
reach age seventy. Think about that. So for the high earners,
the maximum monthly benefit at age sixty two about twenty
nine hundred, almost three thousand. Let's round it off in
three thousand. So if you are in the highest bracket,
if you qualify for the maximum monthly benefit, it's going
(33:37):
to be about three thousand dollars a month at age
sixty two. If you wait until sixty seven, it's going
to be almost forty two hundred a month. Think about that,
just about twelve hundred more. And if you're fortunate enough
not to need that Social Security to supplement your retirement
and you can let it grow and start taking at
(33:59):
age seventy, fifty two hundred a month at age seventy,
So at age sixty two you're looking at three thousand
at full retirement age about forty two hundred at age
seventy about fifty two hundred. That's why you have to
put some real thought into planning for social Security and
(34:19):
you know, listen. Obviously, the longer you wait, the more
you're going to get. But if you pass away shortly thereafter,
then obviously you should have taken it sooner if you
wanted to max out, you know, take taking it. What
happens to your spouse. If the higher earning spouse delays benefits,
(34:43):
it can significantly increase the survivor benefit for the remaining
spouse later in life. That's one reason why a lot
of planners we do favor delaying benefits when financially feasible.
But there's more that comes into that. There's more that
goes into that. Would you rather get a smaller check
(35:04):
for a longer period of time or a much larger
guaranteed check for the rest of your life? These are
things to think about. This is why we do a
lot of tax planning in our office with our clients,
and we really do. We pride ourselves on all the
tax planning that we do. I'm blessed to have twenty
(35:24):
two professionals that I'm surrounded by, and they're all smarter
than I am. I am so proud of my team,
and we do a lot of listen our returns are stellar.
We manage our clients' money, and we do well. Managing
our clients' money, we do really, really, really well. But
then we do a lot of planning what we call
(35:46):
value added services. Will help clients figure out retirement, will
help clients figure out paying for college for their children
or grandchildren. Will help clients figure out what's the best
way of doing this or that so they pay less
in taxes. You're always going to pay tax I said yesterday,
it's okay to make money if it makes sense to sell.
(36:10):
Don't not sell because you're afraid of paying taxes. Folks,
you want to pay taxes all day long. That means
you're making money. What's wrong with making money? It's so
much better than taking and harvesting losses, right, So there's
nothing wrong with taking Listen, if you're managing your portfolio.
We just made some changes in the portfolio, and we
(36:33):
informed our clients we're gonna take some gains and we're
going to redistribute those proceeds. And there's something we think
can even make you more money, so we'll pay a
little tax along the way. We will never let the
tail wag the dog think about that. You never want
the tail to wag the dog. You always want the
dog wagging the tail. There's nothing like a puppy with
(36:56):
the tail waggon. But you don't want the tail wagging
the dog. When it comes to making money, don't be
afraid of taxes. I'm gonna take a quick fifteen second break.
Don't go anywhere. One eight hundred and eighty two, five, five, nine,
four nine. Hello, folks, Thank you for letting me wet
my whistle. Thank you for tuning in. I can't thank
(37:16):
you enough. You really your loyalty to listening to myself
and my colleagues for thirty one years. Thirty one years,
I've been on radio close to you every weekend. Somehow,
some way, you always hear what we're thinking, and we
disclose it all. I wear my emotions on my sleeve,
so I truly appreciate you tuning in and making this
(37:39):
show really one of the most listened to shows, not
only in the Capital region area, but right across the country.
We get a lot of respect on this show. We
do a good job, my colleagues and I and you know,
for thirty one years, we've been helping guide the listening audience,
helping them think outside of the box, helping them ask
(38:00):
those hard questions to their current advisors, helping them really
hopefully be better prepared for retirement, because when you're working
thirty forty fifty years, you should enjoy the short time
you have in retirement. That's the key in life. You
(38:20):
hear me say often. When you have your health, you
have everything. When you have your loved one, your partner's spouse,
you're pretty fortunate, blessed. And if financially you can do it,
don't waste around because you never know when your help
or your loved one that will change. So that's that's
what you want to think about. So one eight hundred
(38:45):
eighty two five five nine four nine. If you have
any questions, give me a call. One eight hundred eighty
two five fifty nine forty nine. So if I handed
you a million dollars today, would you know how to
turn it into a paycheck for the rest of your life?
Think about that. That question always always gets people thinking,
(39:06):
because retirement isn't about building wealth, it's about converting wealth
into income. You only get one retirement, folks. There's no
practice round, whether it's social security, investing, taxes, healthcare, estate, planning.
Make sure you're planning in the right way. Make sure
(39:30):
you're making decisions based on a true solid plan, not headlines.
A true solid plan, not headlines. And what I mean
about turning a million dollars into a paycheck for the
rest of your life. On average, if you're fortunate enough
(39:51):
to save a million dollars and you retire that million dollars,
if it's invested properly, rule of li you should be
able to get four or five six percent distribution from
that million dollars if it's invested properly. Now, when they
say invested properly, I'm not talking about putting it under
(40:12):
your mattress. I'm not talking about putting it into a
CD or a bond. Have a well diversified portfolio, because remember,
when you retire, you don't plan on dying. You just
plan on retiring. You got to keep that thought in
your mind. Just let me say it again, When you retire,
(40:35):
you don't plan on dying. If you retire it sixty
five right now, the average life expectancy is about eighty
years old. Women outlive men. God bless the women. They
always outdo men somehow, some way, and they should. But
(40:56):
know in all seriousness, women outlive men. I think the
average age for women is like eighty one eighty two
and for men about seventy eight seventy nine, So the
average is eighty years old. So if you retired at
age sixty five, you know we have a good fifteen
twenty years that we need to plan Now. Our firm
(41:17):
we plan up until age ninety five, and it's because
more and more people are living longer. If you're married
and you're healthy at sixty five, there's a real good
chance that you're going to be living, or at least
one of you will be living. If you're married or
you have a partner, at least one of you will
be living into well into your eighties early nineties. So
(41:40):
we plan for age ninety five now. Obviously, when we
do financial planning for clients at age sixty five, listen,
those are your go two years. If you're able to
retire at sixty five, enjoy the next ten years from
when you're sixty five to seventy five. When you look
at the money you need to spend, front load that
bucket that ten year period, Beau, You're going to do
(42:03):
more between the age of sixty five and seventy five
than you are between the age of seventy five and
eighty five. Obviously, it's just natural you're going to slow down,
not eat as much, maybe not do as much. So
sixty five to seventy five, that's that's that's your focus,
that you want to enjoy those years. So we always reduce.
(42:27):
Let's make believe a point needs one hundred thousand dollars
a year at age sixty five. I'm making these numbers up.
Everybody's different, so one hundred thousand dollars a year will
inflate it. Obviously, next year you're going to need one
hundred and three thousand to buy what one hundred thousand
buys today. That's inflation. That's three percent inflation. If we're
lucky and get two percent, you only need one hundred
(42:49):
and two thousand. So if you're taking one hundred thousand
out this year, next year you have to take out
one hundred and two or one hundred and three thousand
to buy what one hundred thousand buys today. In the
next ten years, we're going to give you one hundred
thousand dollars a year inflate it. Have a well diversified portfolio,
take two years worth of what you are living on
(43:11):
off of your portfolio. Set it aside so we can
be more proactive managing that portfolio. Then when you reach
seventy five, we may reduce that down the ninety thousand
a year or eighty thousand a year because you're not
going to be spending as much money, and then when
you reach eighty five, it'll be reduced even more. I mean, listen,
(43:35):
it's just makes sense, doesn't it. So when you're planning
for your retirement, don't think about the same amount from
now to your age ninety five. Think about having more
between now and seventy five, between sixty five and seventy five,
and a little less between seventy five and eighty five,
and a little less more between eighty five and ninety five.
(44:00):
So if you're working with a planner, now, talk to
he or she make sure they are putting everything in perspective.
Because when you have your help and you're blessed to
have your loved money, your partner, your spouse, don't pool
around a financially you can do it, because you just
never know when all of that may change, when that
may be taken away from you. And that's how you
(44:21):
want to think about retirement. So if I hand it,
you're a million dollars today, would you know how to
turn it into a paycheck for the rest of your life?
Will you be able to So if you have a
million dollars, that's going to give you, let's say fifty
thousand a year and income, and you should be able
to take that. And then you have another if you're married,
(44:42):
on average, fifty thousand and social Security. Bingo, there's your
one hundred thousand dollars. That's not a bad that's not
a bad paycheck. Right, plan it out, folks. I can't
believe we're coming up to the end of the show.
You are listening to Let's Talk Money, brought to you
by bouchefing It, where we help our clients prioritize their
(45:02):
health while we manage their wealth for life. I can't
thank you enough for tuning in. I truly can't. Go
to our website bouchet dot com, folks. There's a lot
of good information on our website. We really we have
our podcasts, you get to see our team, you see
(45:24):
our white papers that my team writes. We have so
so so much to share with you. And listen It's
the key in retirement is knowing how much you can spend.
This is the last thought I'm leaving you with knowing
how much you can spend. So sit down with your advisor,
(45:47):
say how much can I spend? If you can spend
fifty thousand and you're spending sixty, then you're going to
run out of money. If you're only spending forty, then
you're good. Folks. Thank you for tuning in. Go to
our website bouchet dot com. Be well, enjoy the day,
see you next week.
Whoa baby. It's cold outside, folks. If you're still at
better you just put on a pot of coffee, or
better yet, turn on a fireplace and make some hot
chocolate for the kids. When I got up this morning,
it was a bomby thirty eight degrees. Now we're talking.
This is spring in upstate New York. It's almost summer.
(00:22):
Isn't going to be summer in a few weeks? Holy cow,
mother nature, what did we do? Come on? Warm us
up a little. Good morning, folks. Thank you for tuning
in today. Thank you for tuning in every weekend, every
Saturday at ten, every Sunday at eight. And I truly
I can't begin to thank you enough. I would love
(00:45):
to talk to you. Katie and I are sitting here
sipping on our cup of coffee, and we would love
to point you in the right direction. Get you set up,
tongue tied, it's too early or I'm too wired. Get
you set up so that you can have a chance
to retire with the quality of lifestyle that you want.
(01:06):
I always say, if you want to work during retirement years,
that's fine. Do it because you're bored, silly, But don't
do it because you have to and that means that
you have to be prepared. Whatever your retirement age is,
fifty five, sixty, sixty five, seventy I said yesterday, warned
Buppet ninety four. I mean, whatever your retirement age is,
(01:29):
that's okay. The key is to know how much you
need to have to draw on the average social security
I said yesterday about twenty thousand, but it's actually close
to twenty five thousand. So that's good news, right. If
you only need twenty five thousand to live on, perfect,
you don't need to save any money. If you're married,
(01:49):
the average obviously double that fifty thousand dollars. If that's
all you need, perfect, you don't need to save any money.
But if you need seventy five or one hundred thousand, whatever,
that number is a year to live on to have
the quality of life that you want. Listen, when you
(02:09):
work in decades and I mean decades, you deserve to
have some good years during retirement, and you have to
be prepared. So if social Security is not going to
cut it, if you're single at twenty five thousand or
married at let's say an average of fifty thousand, if
that's not enough, come on, we got to start saving
(02:29):
some money. If you're not saving ten to fifteen percent
of your salary weekend week out, you're probably not saving
a lot. And I know that sounds like a lot,
but folks, that's how much you should be putting away
until you do some really good comprehensive financial planning. If
you don't have a clue, then you need to start
(02:52):
thinking about saving ten at least ten percent of your
salary into a retirement plan somehow, some and if you
start to met as. Sooner you do that, the better
off you'll be. Folks. It's expensive to retire, so I
want to get you prepared. One eight hundred talk w
(03:14):
g y one eight hundred eight two five five nine
four nine Any questions whatsoever? One eight hundred eight two
five fifty nine forty nine. Let's go to the phone lines.
We have Ron from Northville. Ron, tell me how warm
it is up there?
Speaker 2 (03:33):
Well, it's not terrible. I'm sitting on the back deck
looking at the lake. Is nice and calm here chilling,
not too bad?
Speaker 1 (03:40):
Nice, nice? What can I help you with this morning?
Speaker 2 (03:45):
Anyway? I am I've got exposure already through the Baron
Partners one face. I love Ron Public excuse me.
Speaker 1 (03:56):
I love Ron Baron. Ron Baron is one of the
all time great if you're going to buy an active
managed mutual fund, Ron Baron is truly one of the
one of the great money managers out there, I believe
it or not. I used to have Ron Barron on
my radio show when I was investing in mutual funds
and everything thirty one years ago. Ron Barron was my
(04:19):
my my guests on the show more than more than once.
I used to like to have some of the money
managers on there. So he's a good he's a good manager.
Speaker 2 (04:31):
Yeah. Anyway, I have quite an exposure to SpaceX already. Yeah,
and I know it's going public in June twelfth, I believe.
And I want to know what your thoughts of where
that's stock gonna go to?
Speaker 1 (04:46):
Yeah, that stock may go to the moon, no pun intended.
Hang on to it obviously, Ron Barron, you know with
in that Partner's fun on you, I guess let's get
the Ron straight right. You're Ron from Northville, Ron Baron,
who manages the Baron Partner Fund. His number one holding
(05:08):
is Tesla twenty four percent almost so just about a
quarter of that mutual fund is invested in Tesla and
believe it or not, the top ten stocks. This is
how Ron Baron manages money. He has a total of
twenty eight stocks. The top ten stocks represent eighty four
(05:28):
percent of the Baron Partner fund. And that's pretty darn good.
You have Tesla being number one, arch Capital, MSCI, Hyatt Hotels,
Charles Schwab believe it or not, is in the top ten.
You know, he's a good focused manager and you are
going to have representation of SpaceX, and I like SpaceX.
(05:53):
I would let Ron Baron do his thing and just
manage that fund and really, you know, take take the ride.
Speaker 2 (06:03):
Yeah, I know, I read that through some shareholders concerns.
He's limited. He actually sold some of the Tesla last
year and he's put more exposure into the space Ax now.
But what I see, it's like thirty percent is not
with SpaceX unless less than that is in Tesla that
(06:24):
was like eighteen percent.
Speaker 1 (06:26):
Yeah, well, I mean the appreciation basically SpaceX is going
to be about thirty percent of net assets. But we're
going back. You know that report was September twenty twenty five.
I don't know exactly. This is the problem with mutual
funds getting exact information. It's not like exchange traded funds,
(06:48):
so you're going to have to.
Speaker 2 (06:50):
Do some I still get. My question is what do
you think SpaceX is going to do it with.
Speaker 1 (06:55):
I think SpaceX is going to go to the Moon.
I told you that.
Speaker 2 (06:58):
Well that's fine. Well then I'm happy.
Speaker 1 (07:02):
Now listen, I'm either going to be right or wrong.
And when when SpaceX? Not the first day or week,
but give it a month, let's talk. I'm wanting to
call me back and let's see where SpaceX is a month.
Speaker 2 (07:17):
Actually, actually I saw on the internet the other day
somebody said that one hundred thousand dollars with the SpaceX,
we're going to eighteen million.
Speaker 1 (07:25):
Yeah. Well, you know, there's a lot so funny story round.
There's longtime listeners that have recently become a client of ours,
and I went down to visit them. They were in
the Detroit office two weeks ago and they said, we
have a present for you, Steve. I said, you do,
(07:45):
I said, I love presents. They pull out and this
is real crystal, a crystal ball that was in her
family forever. She said, I hear you talk about your
crystal ball on radio all the time, and how you
don't have one. We wanted to give you money. So
now I really have a crystal ball. It sits in
(08:05):
my Saratoga conference room. And I look at that crystal ball.
It's pretty, it's real crystal. But I do have a
crystal ball.
Speaker 2 (08:14):
Now, well, hope you read it and say stay sex
going to the moon.
Speaker 1 (08:20):
I think it will. But I'm either going to be
right or wrong. So a month after it goes public,
I want you to call back. You and I are
going to talk about this.
Speaker 2 (08:30):
All right. Sounds like a plan.
Speaker 1 (08:32):
Ron you'd be well, stay, stay warm, and more importantly,
stay healthy. Okay, thank you for calling one eight hundred
eight two five five nine four nine one eight hundred
eight two five fifty nine forty nine. Any questions, folks,
I mean and and and this is the rub you
heard me say yesterday. We manage about one point seven
(08:55):
billion dollars. We we do not own one mutual fund
and we have obviously because I talked about annudies yesterday.
I'm not a fan of anudies, never have been. We
obviously don't own any annuities. We manage our client's money.
We have mostly exchange traded funds. They're very efficient, they're
(09:16):
very good. Our returns I shared with you year to
date up seventeen percent. Our equity sleeve, the S and
P year to date is up about eleven percent, so
we're out performing it by almost seven seven percentage points.
And my investment team is doing an amazing job, like
(09:37):
an amazing job. And this is so Baron Partners Fund
retail shares. If you look over the last fifteen years,
the average return year in year out nineteen percent, year in,
year out nineteen percent. When you look at QQQ, guess
(09:59):
what they ever return over the last fifteen years is
nineteen point five percent year in year out. There you
have a good, well managed, actively managed mutual fund like
Baron Partners. And believe me, Ron Baron, the manager is
one of the best in the business. This is a
(10:20):
very focused fund. It obviously has you know, I just
shared with you the top ten holdings represent eighty four
percent of this fund and that's that's a lot. It's
very focused. Ron Baron is a kind of a let's say,
buy and hold guy, like in his Baron fund, he said,
(10:42):
Ralph Lauran for forever through three different styles, right, don't
they change styles? How many years. He's owned that that long.
Thirty one years ago, I think Polo was Ron Barn's
top top holding. But he you know, he's got some
some some good investments that have done well, but it's
very focused. Now. When you compare that to QQQ same
(11:05):
return over the last fifteen years, you're in year out
saying average between nineteen and twenty percent. The difference is
the top ten holdings of NASDAK represent just about almost half,
not eighty five percent, and NASDAK has one hundred and
three holdings, whereas the Baron Partner Fund has only twenty
(11:27):
eight holdings. But it's a good fund, and you know,
out of all actively managed funds, that's that's one you're
you're taking on a lot of risk because there's only
twenty eight holdings and Tesla is a quarter of that.
So if you want exposure to Tesla, that's that's the
one for you. One eight hundred eight two five five
(11:50):
nine four nine, one eight hundred eighty two five fifty
nine forty nine. Folks, let me take a quick break.
Don't go anywhere. I'll see inteen quick seconds. Hello, folks,
thank you for letting me wet my whistle. What eight
hundred eight, two, five, five, nine, four nine are the
phone numbers. So you know, another good week. Nine weeks,
(12:12):
running baby nine weeks. This is why you can't get
scared out of the market. Not even a war in
the Middle East should scare you out of the market.
Let the market do what it does best, high to low.
Pete de Trough fourteen percent swing over the last forty
seven years. Fourteen percent from high to low. That's how
(12:32):
much the market swings on average. This year we go
to war in the Middle East. The worst that the
S and P was down at the lowest point was
less than ten percent. When I woke up to that war,
I thought for sure the markets would drop big time.
And at the worst, at the worst down less than
(12:53):
ten percent. This is a resilient market. Nine weeks. We've
had up weeks. This past week, the Nastak composite up
two point four percent QQQ and for our clients QQQN
up almost three percent this week alone, the S and
P up one point four percent. Even the Russell two
(13:15):
thousand was up one point seventy five percent. Year to date,
the S and P is up eleven percent, close to
let's say twelve and a half percent with dividends NASDAK
up sixteen percent, QQQ and QQQN up twenty percent over
just a smidgeon over twenty percent year to date, folks.
(13:36):
That's pretty good. And if you listen to that, you know,
saying selling may go away, come back in November. For
the month of May, NASNAK is up over eight percent,
the S and P is up over five percent. That
is only the month of May, folks, So that's selling
may and go away, saying if you listen to that, oh,
(13:59):
you out and you missed out big. You can't. You
can't listen. Have a well diversified portfolio, take on the
amount of risk that you're comfortable taking on, and let
the markets do their thing. They'll be up. I guarantee
you they'll be down. And guess what history has shown.
The market's always gone back and made all new highs,
(14:25):
new all time highs. The market. It's funny how it
keeps doing that. So you know, we finished Friday at
record highs again. You know, the rally driven mostly by technology,
artificial intelligence, rate related stocks, information technology. You know, for
the month sixteen to eighteen percent during the month. If
(14:47):
you look at just the information technology. You know, corporate
earnings a major driver. First quarter SMP earnings were approaching
twenty nine percent year over year. And if I told
you I May first that we'd be dealing with inflation concerns,
interest rate uncertainty, iron conflicts still going on, would you
(15:10):
have guessed that the SMP was up over five percent
and NANSDAC up over eight percent for the month. No,
you wouldn't. I mean, how could you? It just doesn't
seem possible. It's crazy. But the stock market is not
the economy, folks. The stock market is a discounting mechanism
(15:31):
that looks and you've heard me say this for thirty
one years on the radio. The stock market looks at
the LECs three, six, nine, twelve months, that's how much.
That's how much. The stock market looks ahead. So that
takes the news today. But the news today is already
(15:51):
built into it. And I'm telling you two months April
and May, we had the and P up about fifteen percent,
and you have NANSDAG up twenty eight percent just April
and May. What a beautiful thing. That's that's why you
hear me say I am invested just like my clients.
(16:14):
The only difference is I'm one hundred percent in the
stock market. I could care less when the stock market
goes down. I'm still working. I get a paycheck. I
don't need to dip into my savings, thank God. And
when I do, I'll have, as you hear me say
often almost weekly, one to two years worth of what
I need to live on set off to the side,
(16:36):
so I'm not gambling. And that's how we protect our clients.
That gives us up to two years to manage the portfolio.
In just about every stock market correction has recovered within
two years. So you can't let those headlines get to
your folks. You can't think with your heart. You always
have to think rationally with information. And that's why our
(16:58):
clients engage our SERVI is they literally put their full
trust and faith in us to manage their wealth. That's
why they come to us, and we do I think
a stellar job between managing their wealth and doing all
the financial planning and tax planning. I talked yesterday about
tax planning. We do more tax planning. Then I can
(17:20):
begin to tell you I have, you know, a pretty
good team. I got a pretty good stable. I have
two CPAs, I have no actually I have three CPAs,
I'm sorry, an irs and road agent, and nine CFP professionals.
I got a pretty good stable, folks, No pun intended.
(17:40):
I guess I'm getting ready for Belmont next week, the
last leg of the Triple Crown, and then we're gonna
have a good summer, folks. I think horse racing, and
Saratoga goes to Labor Day right after the Belmont week
next week. They'll take a couple of weeks off, but
they're back Friday, July third, right through Labor Day. Right
Labor Day. That's the longest ever. So if you like
(18:04):
horse racing, man, you're gonna have your fill of it
this summer. And even if you don't like horse racing, folks,
I say you often. And I just had this conversation
the other night at one of the fundraisers that I
was at for the Gary Date Foundation, Stewart's the Date family.
They give back so much to the community and I
(18:25):
respect them so much. But I just had this conversation
there that the that the hold on. I got a
wet my whistle. Fifteen second break, Katie, Oh, folks, thank you,
I had I had my whistle. Anyway, the markets are
are resilient beyond your wildest dreams. And that's what stocks,
(18:47):
for the most part, trayed on. Are the fundamentals of
the economy, corporate earnings, jobs, inflation. Uh. You know, the
data that the FED looks at is pretty intense, and
they're looking for inflation. And when inflation bumps up a little,
that means that. And I don't think the Fed will
be lowering interest rates anytime too soon. But we have
(19:10):
a new Federal Reserve share, Kevin worsh so maybe, just
maybe he will be lower interest rates. So you raise
interest rates when inflation is rearing its ugly head because
you want to slow down the price of goods and
the price of services and goods from going up too much.
That's why the FED raises interest rates to slow down
(19:31):
the economy, kind of tapping the brakes on the economy.
That's what you see when you see interest rates go up,
and when you see the FED lower Fed Funds rate,
that means they're trying to stimulate the economy. They want
more folks like you and I and businesses to go
out and borrow more money and reinvest it into the economy.
(19:54):
And that's why they lower interest rates. So when inflation
looks like it's hot, and it's hotter than then the
FED would like. You know, J Powell just stepped down
in his Fed Reserve chair and his target was two percent.
I'm guessing Kevin's target will probably be the same. We'll
see and when he comes out after his first FED
Fund's Open Market Committee meeting, we'll see what he has.
(20:19):
He's a pretty brilliant guy, and he happens to be homegrown.
He is from Loudon, Bill and we're you know, listen,
that's that's big. That's big when you have a local
neighbor of ours that that is now the FED Reserve chair,
that puts us on the map. That's that's really pretty good.
One eight hundred eight two five five, nine, four nine,
(20:42):
any questions, give me a call. So you know who
he had wasn't oil. So I just told you SMP
up over five percent, NASDAC up over eight percent just
for the month of May alone. Oil drop. And that's
a beautiful thing. These Oil is a big part of inflation. Obviously,
(21:05):
you need to put gas in your car to get
back and forth to work. And if you're not putting
gas in your car, if you're taking the bus, they're
putting gas in their car, right down to the pizza
delivery guy in the door. Dash delivery folks, they're putting
gas in their car, and gas oil. The price of
oil really reflects a big part of inflation. So it
(21:27):
was nice to see the price of oil down eight
percent in the month of May, and we needed that,
you know, because of this war, the price of oil
was up, so having it fall is a good thing.
You want the price of oil to come down. So
here we're sitting at about eighty seven dollars barrel. In
(21:51):
the high was one hundred and almost one hundred and
thirteen dollars a barrel. Well, we're coming up to the
bottom of the hour. You are listening to Talk Money
brought to you by Bouchet and Andrew Group, where we
help our clients prioritize their health while we manage their
wealth for life. We're going to take a quick break
for the news. We are not going anywhere, and I
(22:12):
hope you don't either fill up your cup of coffee
if you're still in bed, get up, put the fireplace on,
put some hot cocoa on for the kids or for yourself,
and come back right after the news. I'll be here
one eight hundred eight two five five nine four nine.
The bone mines are open. Katie and I are here, ready,
(22:33):
willing and able to take your call. I would love
to talk to you about your portfolio, your plan. One
eight hundred eighty two five nine four nine. I think
Katie plays some pretty nice jazzy music. Well, folks, it's
warming up out there. I woke up it was thirty
eight degrees. It's up to fifty degrees now. Oh, we
(22:55):
got a lot to be thankful for today, don't we.
Living in the great Northeast where we if gray sky's cold,
rainy weather or snow on the ground. And believe me,
at thirty eight degrees, I'm sure there's probably places in
the mountains where they're worse snow. I know my wife
came from Tupper Lake, and I'm sure her whole family
up there has snow. Folks, thank you for tuning in,
(23:18):
Thank you for hanging in through the news. I can't
thank you enough. I truly appreciate it. I'm here to
help you. My producer, Katie is here to help get
you on with me, and we are ready for your call.
If you have any questions, any questions whatsoever? One eight
hundred talk WGY one eight hundred eighty two five five
(23:41):
nine four nine Any questions whatsoever, folks, give me a call.
So just before the news break, I talked about the
S and P beating up over five percent, dance that
cup over eight percent in the month of May alone.
Now it's that twenty eight percent for April and May combined,
and year to date, the nansdak QQQ is up twenty percent.
(24:04):
Sm P, you know, up over five percent for May,
up you know, seventeen percent for April and May year
to date right now, with dividends up about eleven and
a half percent. That's not bad, folks, that's not bad.
I mean, with all the headlines and we're not even
(24:24):
you know, we're just just five months into the year.
That's pretty good. But I talked about oil basically falling
nineteen percent in May and the international benchmark. You know,
that's the biggest monthly drop since March of twenty twenty.
So we were down just eleven percent just this week alone.
(24:48):
As I said, Brent was down nineteen percent. The US
oil benchmark fell seventeen percent in May. So it's all good.
When when the price of oil goes down, you'll see
the price of gas come down a little bit. You'll
see the price of gas come down. And that's good news.
I mean, listen, if we go back just let's just
(25:11):
go back to the beginning of COVID. The price of
gas was about two twenty five two sixty a gallon
in twenty twenty one, about three point thirty a gallon.
The peak was twenty twenty two. We are not at
the peak today, folks. The peak was twenty twenty two,
five dollars and one penny. That was the peak for
(25:32):
the price of gas. Twenty twenty three about three dollars
and fifty cents, twenty twenty four, about three dollars and
twenty cents, twenty twenty five, three dollars and ten cents.
But with the war in Iran, the price of oil
from last year three ten a gallon is now nationally
about four forty a gallon. Every obviously, every every community,
(25:56):
every state is different, depending on the taxes and so forth.
But we're looking at about four forty nationally. And when
you see this war come to an end, this war
will come to an end, folks. The world's not coming
to an end. This war will come to an end.
It's like when the market goes down, investors think that
the world's coming to an end, and it never comes
(26:18):
to an end. It doesn't. It's fol it all goes
up and down, but it doesn't come to an end.
This war will come to an end. And when that happens,
I think you're going to see the price of gas
really fall because the price of oil will fall once
iron and the Strait of horn Mouse, which plays a
major role in this, when that's closed down. I think
(26:41):
that accounts for about twenty percent of oil flowing, especially
to Asian countries. So you know, listen, oil up over
a dollar or one hundred dollars a barrel because of
this war. And as I said, sitting here today, we're
looking at eighty seven dollars a barrel for US crew
(27:04):
compared to one hundred and twelve dollars a barrel, which
was the highest. So that's pretty good that it came down,
and it can't come down quick enough. So when this
war is over, I think two things you'll see. Obviously
the price of oil come down, which relates to the
(27:26):
price of gas at the pump. And I also think
you'll see the stock market continue its rally. I think
it'll be good news when the war comes to an end.
Right now. That's the dark cloud hanging over the stock
market is the war and Iran. So it was nice
to see oil down. It was nice to see stocks up.
On Friday, President Trump wrote that he would be meeting
(27:49):
with his team to make a final determination about a
piece deal with Iron. Well, you know, when it happens,
it happens. I don't get anxious over it anymore because
how many you know, resolutions had we looked at over
the last several weeks. It's like, oh, yeah, it's going
to end by you know, tomorrow, within forty eight hours.
(28:10):
And it still hasn't ended, but it will end. I'm
hopeful that it will end. So it was nice on
Friday to see NASDAC and SMP close to record highs.
I mean, forget that sell and may go away. I mean,
what a robust month we had the NASAC composite, as
I said, up, you know, over twenty five percent, and
(28:36):
that's the best two month climbs since two thousand and two.
So that's pretty darn, pretty darn good. Investors are betting
that corporate earnings will continue to add to the higher
stock prices. In the first quarter, year over year earnings
growth for companies in the SMP is about twenty eight percent.
(28:57):
This is according to fact Set calculation based on actual
results and analyst estimates. If maintained, the index will lock
in its highest learning's growth since the fourth quarter of
twenty one. Artificial intelligence. Where would we be if we
didn't talk about artificial intelligence? And am I correct? And
(29:17):
I'm telling you, folks, if you haven't played around with it,
go and play around with it, get in this sandbox
and really have fun. Artificial intelligence, I believe is here
to stay. We've taken a position in it. Of the
reasons why you're to date with the SMP up about
eleven percent, we're up almost eighteen percent. Our equity sleep
(29:39):
because of the investments that my investment committee have made.
Believe me, it's hard to outperform the SMP, and we're
outperforming it by about seven percentage points. So I'm real happy,
real proud of my investment team. And they're doing a
good job. They're diligent about the investments that we have.
(30:00):
When we take some tactical positions, they are really doing
an amazing job. So artificial intelligence, you know, it's a
big catalyst for corporate profits. Del for instance, up thirty
three percent Friday, after the technology company raised its full
quarter outlook and said first quarter sales climbed by about
(30:21):
eighty eight percent on demand for AI products. AI is
artificial intelligence, So we'll see what happens. Obviously, we have
inflation rearing and s ugly had from some of the
latest reason readings. We had the war in iron. There's
still a lot of uncertainty. You have consumer sentiment at
(30:44):
a low, so things aren't all rosy out there. We
need to have the overall picture be a little brighter
so that consumers feel better. They make up two thirds
of the economy. Think about that. The consumer makes up
two thirds of the economy, and the consumer is really
(31:05):
important folks. And when they're not feeling too good and
they're not out there spending money, it shows. So we
want the consumer to feel really good. We want them
to feel safe, have job security, make a decent pay
so they can go out and do some shopping. One
eight hundred eighty two five five nine four nine. Any questions,
(31:28):
any questions whatsoever. Give me a call. I would love
to talk to You love to talk to you. So
let's talk a little bit about social security. You talk
about having your headspin. Whenever I talk about social security,
my head spins. There's so much, you know, so much
to think about when it comes to social security. Myth
number one, everyone should take social Security at sixty two. No,
(31:54):
that's not true. Myth number two everyone should wait until age. No,
that's not true either. It all depends, folks, It all depends.
So why are those two numbers important? Well, sixty two
is the earliest that somebody can start taking social Security,
(32:14):
and when they do, they are taking a huge discount
by you know, almost thirty percent less than waiting until
full retirement age. So whatever your full retirement age is,
let's make believe it's sixty seven. If you take it
at sixty two, you're taking about thirty percent less than
(32:34):
you would get at that full retirement age. Does that
make sense? It makes sense if obviously, if you need
the money, it makes sense. If you feel you're not
going to have a long life expectancy, then it makes
sense to take it. If you're still working, it does
(32:55):
not make sense to take it because you're going to
be giving most of it back. Because you're going to
be penalized. And why is age seventy important Because when
you do reach your full retirement age, then Social Security
grows about eight percent a year until you make until
you reach age seventy, eight percent a year until you
(33:15):
reach age seventy. Think about that. So for the high earners,
the maximum monthly benefit at age sixty two about twenty
nine hundred, almost three thousand. Let's round it off in
three thousand. So if you are in the highest bracket,
if you qualify for the maximum monthly benefit, it's going
(33:37):
to be about three thousand dollars a month at age
sixty two. If you wait until sixty seven, it's going
to be almost forty two hundred a month. Think about that,
just about twelve hundred more. And if you're fortunate enough
not to need that Social Security to supplement your retirement
and you can let it grow and start taking at
(33:59):
age seventy, fifty two hundred a month at age seventy,
So at age sixty two you're looking at three thousand
at full retirement age about forty two hundred at age
seventy about fifty two hundred. That's why you have to
put some real thought into planning for social Security and
(34:19):
you know, listen. Obviously, the longer you wait, the more
you're going to get. But if you pass away shortly thereafter,
then obviously you should have taken it sooner if you
wanted to max out, you know, take taking it. What
happens to your spouse. If the higher earning spouse delays benefits,
(34:43):
it can significantly increase the survivor benefit for the remaining
spouse later in life. That's one reason why a lot
of planners we do favor delaying benefits when financially feasible.
But there's more that comes into that. There's more that
goes into that. Would you rather get a smaller check
(35:04):
for a longer period of time or a much larger
guaranteed check for the rest of your life? These are
things to think about. This is why we do a
lot of tax planning in our office with our clients,
and we really do. We pride ourselves on all the
tax planning that we do. I'm blessed to have twenty
(35:24):
two professionals that I'm surrounded by, and they're all smarter
than I am. I am so proud of my team,
and we do a lot of listen our returns are stellar.
We manage our clients' money, and we do well. Managing
our clients' money, we do really, really, really well. But
then we do a lot of planning what we call
(35:46):
value added services. Will help clients figure out retirement, will
help clients figure out paying for college for their children
or grandchildren. Will help clients figure out what's the best
way of doing this or that so they pay less
in taxes. You're always going to pay tax I said yesterday,
it's okay to make money if it makes sense to sell.
(36:10):
Don't not sell because you're afraid of paying taxes. Folks,
you want to pay taxes all day long. That means
you're making money. What's wrong with making money? It's so
much better than taking and harvesting losses, right, So there's
nothing wrong with taking Listen, if you're managing your portfolio.
We just made some changes in the portfolio, and we
(36:33):
informed our clients we're gonna take some gains and we're
going to redistribute those proceeds. And there's something we think
can even make you more money, so we'll pay a
little tax along the way. We will never let the
tail wag the dog think about that. You never want
the tail to wag the dog. You always want the
dog wagging the tail. There's nothing like a puppy with
(36:56):
the tail waggon. But you don't want the tail wagging
the dog. When it comes to making money, don't be
afraid of taxes. I'm gonna take a quick fifteen second break.
Don't go anywhere. One eight hundred and eighty two, five, five, nine,
four nine. Hello, folks, Thank you for letting me wet
my whistle. Thank you for tuning in. I can't thank
(37:16):
you enough. You really your loyalty to listening to myself
and my colleagues for thirty one years. Thirty one years,
I've been on radio close to you every weekend. Somehow,
some way, you always hear what we're thinking, and we
disclose it all. I wear my emotions on my sleeve,
so I truly appreciate you tuning in and making this
(37:39):
show really one of the most listened to shows, not
only in the Capital region area, but right across the country.
We get a lot of respect on this show. We
do a good job, my colleagues and I and you know,
for thirty one years, we've been helping guide the listening audience,
helping them think outside of the box, helping them ask
(38:00):
those hard questions to their current advisors, helping them really
hopefully be better prepared for retirement, because when you're working
thirty forty fifty years, you should enjoy the short time
you have in retirement. That's the key in life. You
(38:20):
hear me say often. When you have your health, you
have everything. When you have your loved one, your partner's spouse,
you're pretty fortunate, blessed. And if financially you can do it,
don't waste around because you never know when your help
or your loved one that will change. So that's that's
what you want to think about. So one eight hundred
(38:45):
eighty two five five nine four nine. If you have
any questions, give me a call. One eight hundred eighty
two five fifty nine forty nine. So if I handed
you a million dollars today, would you know how to
turn it into a paycheck for the rest of your life?
Think about that. That question always always gets people thinking,
(39:06):
because retirement isn't about building wealth, it's about converting wealth
into income. You only get one retirement, folks. There's no
practice round, whether it's social security, investing, taxes, healthcare, estate, planning.
Make sure you're planning in the right way. Make sure
(39:30):
you're making decisions based on a true solid plan, not headlines.
A true solid plan, not headlines. And what I mean
about turning a million dollars into a paycheck for the
rest of your life. On average, if you're fortunate enough
(39:51):
to save a million dollars and you retire that million dollars,
if it's invested properly, rule of li you should be
able to get four or five six percent distribution from
that million dollars if it's invested properly. Now, when they
say invested properly, I'm not talking about putting it under
(40:12):
your mattress. I'm not talking about putting it into a
CD or a bond. Have a well diversified portfolio, because remember,
when you retire, you don't plan on dying. You just
plan on retiring. You got to keep that thought in
your mind. Just let me say it again, When you retire,
(40:35):
you don't plan on dying. If you retire it sixty
five right now, the average life expectancy is about eighty
years old. Women outlive men. God bless the women. They
always outdo men somehow, some way, and they should. But
(40:56):
know in all seriousness, women outlive men. I think the
average age for women is like eighty one eighty two
and for men about seventy eight seventy nine, So the
average is eighty years old. So if you retired at
age sixty five, you know we have a good fifteen
twenty years that we need to plan Now. Our firm
(41:17):
we plan up until age ninety five, and it's because
more and more people are living longer. If you're married
and you're healthy at sixty five, there's a real good
chance that you're going to be living, or at least
one of you will be living. If you're married or
you have a partner, at least one of you will
be living into well into your eighties early nineties. So
(41:40):
we plan for age ninety five now. Obviously, when we
do financial planning for clients at age sixty five, listen,
those are your go two years. If you're able to
retire at sixty five, enjoy the next ten years from
when you're sixty five to seventy five. When you look
at the money you need to spend, front load that
bucket that ten year period, Beau, You're going to do
(42:03):
more between the age of sixty five and seventy five
than you are between the age of seventy five and
eighty five. Obviously, it's just natural you're going to slow down,
not eat as much, maybe not do as much. So
sixty five to seventy five, that's that's that's your focus,
that you want to enjoy those years. So we always reduce.
(42:27):
Let's make believe a point needs one hundred thousand dollars
a year at age sixty five. I'm making these numbers up.
Everybody's different, so one hundred thousand dollars a year will
inflate it. Obviously, next year you're going to need one
hundred and three thousand to buy what one hundred thousand
buys today. That's inflation. That's three percent inflation. If we're
lucky and get two percent, you only need one hundred
(42:49):
and two thousand. So if you're taking one hundred thousand
out this year, next year you have to take out
one hundred and two or one hundred and three thousand
to buy what one hundred thousand buys today. In the
next ten years, we're going to give you one hundred
thousand dollars a year inflate it. Have a well diversified portfolio,
take two years worth of what you are living on
(43:11):
off of your portfolio. Set it aside so we can
be more proactive managing that portfolio. Then when you reach
seventy five, we may reduce that down the ninety thousand
a year or eighty thousand a year because you're not
going to be spending as much money, and then when
you reach eighty five, it'll be reduced even more. I mean, listen,
(43:35):
it's just makes sense, doesn't it. So when you're planning
for your retirement, don't think about the same amount from
now to your age ninety five. Think about having more
between now and seventy five, between sixty five and seventy five,
and a little less between seventy five and eighty five,
and a little less more between eighty five and ninety five.
(44:00):
So if you're working with a planner, now, talk to
he or she make sure they are putting everything in perspective.
Because when you have your help and you're blessed to
have your loved money, your partner, your spouse, don't pool
around a financially you can do it, because you just
never know when all of that may change, when that
may be taken away from you. And that's how you
(44:21):
want to think about retirement. So if I hand it,
you're a million dollars today, would you know how to
turn it into a paycheck for the rest of your life?
Will you be able to So if you have a
million dollars, that's going to give you, let's say fifty
thousand a year and income, and you should be able
to take that. And then you have another if you're married,
(44:42):
on average, fifty thousand and social Security. Bingo, there's your
one hundred thousand dollars. That's not a bad that's not
a bad paycheck. Right, plan it out, folks. I can't
believe we're coming up to the end of the show.
You are listening to Let's Talk Money, brought to you
by bouchefing It, where we help our clients prioritize their
(45:02):
health while we manage their wealth for life. I can't
thank you enough for tuning in. I truly can't. Go
to our website bouchet dot com, folks. There's a lot
of good information on our website. We really we have
our podcasts, you get to see our team, you see
(45:24):
our white papers that my team writes. We have so
so so much to share with you. And listen It's
the key in retirement is knowing how much you can spend.
This is the last thought I'm leaving you with knowing
how much you can spend. So sit down with your advisor,
(45:47):
say how much can I spend? If you can spend
fifty thousand and you're spending sixty, then you're going to
run out of money. If you're only spending forty, then
you're good. Folks. Thank you for tuning in. Go to
our website bouchet dot com. Be well, enjoy the day,
see you next week.
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