August 1, 2024 • 18 mins
S&P 500 trade and trend levels. META, AAPL, AMZN, Bonds and Bitcoin
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Now here's your Care for My Wealth guy, Chris Klein.
All right, welcome to the Care for My Wealth Show.
I am your host, Chris Klein. It is August first,
and this recording is after the close on this Thursday's
trading action, fun, excitement, craziness. So of course Meta comes
(00:21):
through with what we're pretty good earnings numbers on Wednesday night,
and of course the stock opened up and went cuckoo
for cocoa puffs right out of the choot, jammed up
all the way to a high of five twenty seven,
and then just lost its steam pretty much all day,
closing up a little bit under five percent. That's interesting,
(00:46):
and it's interesting because it indicates that there was a
fair amount of selling into that particular earnings number, and
it was a good number. Earnings and revenues beat on
on both elements as an acceleration on a year over
year basis. So you know, you think you look at
that and say that's not terrible. It flipped back to
(01:08):
a bullish trend on its activity today and it pulled
back right to its trade level of four eight nine
sixty four. Now, what do I think is going to happen?
Chances are it's going to bounce from here, because that's
just what the math suggests. But the macro environment is
pulling everything in a little bit of a funky spot.
(01:28):
And what I mean by the macro environment is that
on a rated change basis, there is a slowing that's occurring,
and markets are anticipating the next CPI print to be
the last easy one that will be given here in August,
and then actually the last one will be right before
the September FED meeting, which everyone expects is you know,
(01:50):
going to be a rate cutting environment. And that's all
well and good. The two year Treasury continues to signal yep,
three rate cuts are coming sometime this year. You know,
you get two on this September meeting, you know right away,
a fifty basis point cut, you know, all that sort
of stuff. Right, So basically, what we're getting in this
macro environment is the attempt to price in well, I
(02:13):
guess the recession. And the reason why I say that
is simply because you can see it happening in the
rates market. You can see it happening to some extent
in oil, you can see it happening in just what's
happening with volatility itself. The volatility segment that we're dealing
with right now is interesting simply because dealers are in
(02:35):
this short gamma situation. And I'm not going to bore
you with all that. You can look up what gamma is.
But essentially, when we are in a dealer short gamma scenario,
it increases volatility, but it does it in both directions,
you know. And so some people will say, oh, you know,
it's the macro environment and the dollars move in higher
(02:58):
and rates are getting smashed. Everything's going to heck in
a bucket, because that's just what everything's saying in the
macro environment. All right, Well, some of that is true,
some of that is not. And the reality is is
that you still have a scenario with the S and
P five hundred trading in a bullish trend. Now, when
(03:18):
something's trading in a bullish trend, you let it be
your friend until it's not. And that's fine. And so
what do we have. We have this scenario where the
SMP five hundred keeps flirting with trend while volatility has
been elevated and it's getting very very very very close
to an over sold condition. Now. Today, August first was
(03:41):
interesting because of course markets jammed higher right at the open.
Everyone's excited about Meta's earnings numbers, and those things got
sold right into which is kind of what you get
heading into a macro environment like what we're seeing with
growth slowing, inflation slowing into perhaps a deflationary cycle. Right,
(04:01):
that stuff's that's happening. And so the S and P
five hundred traded literally right up to its trade level.
Now remember you hear me say trade. It's simply a
mathematical equation that identifies the rate of change of price,
volume and volatility. And it literally went to fifty five
sixty six, and the trade level for the day is
(04:23):
fifty five fifty eight. Yeah, it's not magic, I know,
it's just math. It is what it is. Those levels
give you an idea of where institutions want to place themselves,
either for selling or for perhaps buying. And there were
some volatility triggers that were in the system at for
the S and P five hundred, at fifty five fifteen,
(04:45):
we were above that. Markets were moving along, and so
you know, typically when you get those kinds of moves,
you anticipated to some extent continue but it failed, right,
and so therefore you have to kind of just let
the day play out. I mean, day doesn't make a market.
Let's face it, right, one day doesn't make a market.
(05:05):
So we have to ask ourselves, well, what was the
next what's the next spot? Well, the next spot is
always trend. If something fails at trade, which is again
rate of change, price volume, and volatility, but the time
series is a bottom month, right, three weeks less than
a month. Trend is a scenario where it's the same
thing price volume, volatility, rate of change, mathematical equation, but
(05:28):
at time series and more than three months, right, it's
the trend. And the trend is your friend until it's not.
And right now the S and P five hundred still
is flirting with its trend level. And I'm talking to
intermediate term trend level right less than or excuse me,
more than three months, and I don't just I just
don't get excited about it unless I see a close
(05:51):
below that that trend level for at least three days.
And now you might remember last week, if we look
at how this played out on Wednesday to twenty fourth,
it cut through trend on Wednesday to twenty fifth, that
stayed below trend, but then on Friday the twenty sixth
that popped up above trend, and then on Monday the
(06:12):
twenty ninth, it just kind of hung around trend. And
then the thirtieth, oh it dropped below trend again. Oh no, no.
And well then on Wednesday, last day of the month.
Sure it might have been window dressing popped up above trend,
and it did it on good volume, right, So, I
mean it clearly showed that it wasn't Aunt Mabel and
Uncle Bob buying stock. It was you know, it was
(06:32):
likely some institutional efforts that we're moving in. And so
we've got a volatility matrix that is suggesting a turnaround,
a bounce of some type. We've got an oversold overbought
scenario where it's more over sold and it hasn't triggered
an actual over sold condition, but it's very very close.
So trend for the S and P five hundred right
(06:54):
now is fifty four fifty six, and we closed at
fifty four forty six, just below it. Right, if the
line's thick enough, it's right on it. But point is
is that it's right there, it's just flirting with it.
So here's a scenario where we would anticipate a move
higher in the S and P five hundred to test
(07:14):
that trade level of fifty five to fifty eight one
more time. If it fails there, then chances are good that,
you know, some defensiveness might want to be put in place,
you know, perhaps a little bit stronger than not. And
and so we'll see what happens with that, right, We'll
just we've got to wait and see how it works. Now,
(07:36):
the NASDACK looks a little different. It's trading below its
intermediate term trend level. Intermediate term trend for the NASDACK
is seventeen seven oh six. It rallied up and failed
right at that level and then closed the day at
its longer term trend level, and that longer term trend
level is seventeen one thirty eight. Right, So it's literally
right there. Now, what we have with the NASDACK that
(07:57):
we don't have with the S and P five hundred
is an over sold condition. It's a pretty big over
sold condition. And when you consider interest rates dropping the
way that they have, it's creating a fairly large gap. Right,
And so you ask yourself, okay, at what point does
tech chase the reduced interest rate cycle? Right? Okay, it
(08:18):
might We just have to see how that plays out.
It's a you know, kind of a duration type asset,
So we don't have a strong buy signal anywhere, but
we've got a fairly strong over sold condition in the
Nasdaq right now that we just need to be mindful of.
Russell two thousand, of course, has had an interesting move
(08:39):
higher coming into the middle of July, and so it
closed just below its trade level of twenty one ninety.
It closed at twenty one eighty six, trade levels at
twenty one ninety. Trend level for the Russell two thousands
at twenty one fifteen twenty one sixteen, and chances are
it's going to test that. That's kind of the way
(08:59):
it looks. One of the things that is very different
with regards to the Rustle two thousand and the SMP
five hundred are its longer term trend ranges, right, And
so we'd look at them on a calculate them on
a daily basis, and then do it on a longer
term basis, something that would be out about three years
(09:21):
or so, right, And so it takes into consideration a
rate of change on a basis or time series of
three years or more. Okay, fine, beautiful. Well, the downside
on the SMP five hundred is now capped with its
current level of fifty three eight. So what does that mean?
Just means that if the SMP were to sell off
to fifty threeh eight, people would lose their minds, Volatility
(09:45):
would spike, everyone would think the world is coming to
an end, and yet it would hit a level that
it has not had the opportunity to hit since well
since really the April bottom and then prior to that,
the October bottom that kind of launched this bull market
that we're currently in. Right so October November of twenty
(10:07):
twenty three launched the current bull market. April was a
correction and a test of the bull market, and maybe
we're running through that same cycle again. I don't know.
You know, we'll see, but you know, you shouldn't lose
your mind if the market does sell off down to
that let's call it fifty three hundred level, and then
(10:30):
I think from there you'd see a fairly strong bounce higher.
Some of it's going to depend on what happens with
the volatility structure. Right now, VIX is in a bullish
condition and it's got a fairly strong trend level down
at about fifteen, and so's it's bounced off of that
fifteen ish area now for the last couple of weeks
(10:54):
after it had broken through it, and so we've got
a range on the SMP of about sixteen to twenty two. Now,
if you get into the twenties with VIX, it is
a lose your mind environment, because that's what bulls do.
They lose their minds. When VIX gets above twenty, it's
pack it in. The whole world is over. Forget about it.
(11:14):
And that's how people treat it. And it's unfortunate. It
doesn't necessarily mean that the whole world is coming to
an end or a close or you know, going to
completely get clobbered, but the point is is that it could.
And when you get increased degrees of volatility, when a
dealer structure is in negative gamma, then you get volatility
(11:35):
in both directions up and down right, you get hard
down days, you get hard up days, and that's what
we've been seeing over the past week, week and a half,
and so currently still in this short gamma position, there's
no reason why we should think anything other than what
we've been getting. And okay, fine, ticket day by day.
That's all you can do. It's all you can do.
(11:57):
Tenure treasury drop all four percent for the first time
in a long time, so that's below trend. Yields are bearish,
signaling lower lows, just again trying to price in the
possibility of a recession. To your treasury, interestingly got a
buy signal on its yield because it's over sold. So
(12:17):
what's that mean to your treasury probably bounces to four
forty ish, let's say four thirty three to four forty
that's the level that the two year treasury probably bounces to.
Ten year treasury probably bounces to about four ten to
four fourteen if it goes there. Just buy bonds, and
(12:40):
not just any bond by treasuries, by the belly of
the curve, by seven to ten year treasuries, by twenty
plus year treasuries. Proxies for that would be I e.
F Indigo, Edward foxtrot, and the longer term one would
be TLT. Those would not be bad positions to build
up into if we see interest rates get up to
(13:02):
those levels, because I think they're gonna fail, because they're
just signaling the potential impossibility of a recession. Gold everybody
loves gold. If it gets down to twenty three ninety one,
buy it. That's trade. It's very close to longer term trend.
Right below it is another trend level of twenty three
sixty nine. You might remember the last podcasts I have
(13:26):
talked about gold more likely than not heading up towards
twenty five hundred an ounce. Last time gold got down
to its trend of about twenty three seventy, I said
the same thing. I said, buy it, just own it.
And so we'll see how that one goes. But it
definitely looks right now like it's right for a small pullback,
(13:47):
and that pullback first stop would be twenty three ninety one.
So if you see twenty three ninety one, that's the
spot where you can add a little bit and then
see what happens bitcoin. Everybody wonders what's going on with bitcoin.
It's fine, it's fine, it's fine. Strong level sixty two nine,
sixty two nine, sixty three thousand somewhere in there is
(14:08):
a strong level. Sixty two five is another very strong level.
And if those levels get hit again they did today,
not a bad spot to add to your bitcoin portfolio.
If it hits sixty thousand five hundred. This is an
interesting spot. If bitcoin hits sixty thousand, five hundred, that
(14:30):
is a very strong level because if you look at
it on a weekly basis, so a longer term trade cycle,
longer term trade level, sixty thousand, five hundred is an
area that is definitely one that I would want to
be a buyer of, and if it hits that, I
will do my level best to buy some more bitcoin.
(14:52):
I do think bitcoin has a very strong future ahead
of it for a whole host of reasons. But right now,
you got to deal with some of the negativity, You
got to deal with some of the volatility, and hey,
welcome to markets, because that's how it goes and that's
what you get. So hey, all right, that's the end
of another quick update. What am I expecting for tomorrow,
(15:12):
August the second. I'm expecting a bounce in the major markets.
It would be interesting to see if whether or not
we get the S and P five hundred backup to
fifty five fifty eight, and if it can hold above
fifty five to fifty eight, we're often running again. I
don't have a lot of confidence that that happens. So
for us, if we see fifty five to fifty eight. Again,
(15:33):
Chances are we cut some exposure to our equity holdings
and step back and keep our bond and gold and
stuff like that and just kind of wait for this
macro market to cycle itself out a little bit. Maybe
we get an interesting move with earnings. So far, Amazon
and Apple announced tonight. Both had very very good numbers.
Apple beat on every metric with the exception of sales
(15:55):
of their Mac. Amazon did really well with their clouds
stuff Aws, and everybody was excited about Apple stuff, but
not so excited about Amazon's stuff. After hours is always
a mess. It's always hard to calibrate what's going on
in market space when after hour stuff is going on.
(16:17):
Like I said, yesterday you had Meta blowing it through
the roof after hours and the market ended up getting clobbered.
Today today you got Amazon getting hammered after hours to
seventy one. And who knows, maybe we wake up and
markets are rallying paradox right, crazy crazy stuff. So could
app Apple be a good catalyst for tomorrow? Maybe we'll see.
(16:40):
The market seems to like Apple's data a little bit
better than Amazon's at this point, only because it's it's
up slightly, and I mean slightly, like three quarters of
a percent. I would expect a much bigger bounce if
markets were really really excited to buy tech, and clearly
right here, right now, in this market side, they're not
(17:01):
excited to buy tech. So pay attention to the levels
I gave you. Watch out for what's going on in
the macro market with interest rates, the US dollar, and
of course oil. As oil continues to deflate, it just
points towards a weakening demand structure for global economic activity.
Same thing could be said for copper. Copper looks terrible.
(17:23):
Copper is something that probably continues to go down. If
it moves up towards for forty a pound for futures,
great spot to short it because it doesn't look good
on a global scale. So that's where we're at. If
you have any questions, shoot me an email info at
carefromiwealth dot com. If you'd like to be placed on
our morning email list that gives you the top things
(17:45):
that you want to pay attention to in very concise
bullet point format. I'd love to put you on the list.
Just again, shoot me an email info at carefromiwealth dot com.
This is the care for my Wealth Show. I'm your host,
Chris Clin. We'll see you next time.
Now here's your Care for My Wealth guy, Chris Klein.
All right, welcome to the Care for My Wealth Show.
I am your host, Chris Klein. It is August first,
and this recording is after the close on this Thursday's
trading action, fun, excitement, craziness. So of course Meta comes
(00:21):
through with what we're pretty good earnings numbers on Wednesday night,
and of course the stock opened up and went cuckoo
for cocoa puffs right out of the choot, jammed up
all the way to a high of five twenty seven,
and then just lost its steam pretty much all day,
closing up a little bit under five percent. That's interesting,
(00:46):
and it's interesting because it indicates that there was a
fair amount of selling into that particular earnings number, and
it was a good number. Earnings and revenues beat on
on both elements as an acceleration on a year over
year basis. So you know, you think you look at
that and say that's not terrible. It flipped back to
(01:08):
a bullish trend on its activity today and it pulled
back right to its trade level of four eight nine
sixty four. Now, what do I think is going to happen?
Chances are it's going to bounce from here, because that's
just what the math suggests. But the macro environment is
pulling everything in a little bit of a funky spot.
(01:28):
And what I mean by the macro environment is that
on a rated change basis, there is a slowing that's occurring,
and markets are anticipating the next CPI print to be
the last easy one that will be given here in August,
and then actually the last one will be right before
the September FED meeting, which everyone expects is you know,
(01:50):
going to be a rate cutting environment. And that's all
well and good. The two year Treasury continues to signal yep,
three rate cuts are coming sometime this year. You know,
you get two on this September meeting, you know right away,
a fifty basis point cut, you know, all that sort
of stuff. Right, So basically, what we're getting in this
macro environment is the attempt to price in well, I
(02:13):
guess the recession. And the reason why I say that
is simply because you can see it happening in the
rates market. You can see it happening to some extent
in oil, you can see it happening in just what's
happening with volatility itself. The volatility segment that we're dealing
with right now is interesting simply because dealers are in
(02:35):
this short gamma situation. And I'm not going to bore
you with all that. You can look up what gamma is.
But essentially, when we are in a dealer short gamma scenario,
it increases volatility, but it does it in both directions,
you know. And so some people will say, oh, you know,
it's the macro environment and the dollars move in higher
(02:58):
and rates are getting smashed. Everything's going to heck in
a bucket, because that's just what everything's saying in the
macro environment. All right, Well, some of that is true,
some of that is not. And the reality is is
that you still have a scenario with the S and
P five hundred trading in a bullish trend. Now, when
(03:18):
something's trading in a bullish trend, you let it be
your friend until it's not. And that's fine. And so
what do we have. We have this scenario where the
SMP five hundred keeps flirting with trend while volatility has
been elevated and it's getting very very very very close
to an over sold condition. Now. Today, August first was
(03:41):
interesting because of course markets jammed higher right at the open.
Everyone's excited about Meta's earnings numbers, and those things got
sold right into which is kind of what you get
heading into a macro environment like what we're seeing with
growth slowing, inflation slowing into perhaps a deflationary cycle. Right,
(04:01):
that stuff's that's happening. And so the S and P
five hundred traded literally right up to its trade level.
Now remember you hear me say trade. It's simply a
mathematical equation that identifies the rate of change of price,
volume and volatility. And it literally went to fifty five
sixty six, and the trade level for the day is
(04:23):
fifty five fifty eight. Yeah, it's not magic, I know,
it's just math. It is what it is. Those levels
give you an idea of where institutions want to place themselves,
either for selling or for perhaps buying. And there were
some volatility triggers that were in the system at for
the S and P five hundred, at fifty five fifteen,
(04:45):
we were above that. Markets were moving along, and so
you know, typically when you get those kinds of moves,
you anticipated to some extent continue but it failed, right,
and so therefore you have to kind of just let
the day play out. I mean, day doesn't make a market.
Let's face it, right, one day doesn't make a market.
(05:05):
So we have to ask ourselves, well, what was the
next what's the next spot? Well, the next spot is
always trend. If something fails at trade, which is again
rate of change, price volume, and volatility, but the time
series is a bottom month, right, three weeks less than
a month. Trend is a scenario where it's the same
thing price volume, volatility, rate of change, mathematical equation, but
(05:28):
at time series and more than three months, right, it's
the trend. And the trend is your friend until it's not.
And right now the S and P five hundred still
is flirting with its trend level. And I'm talking to
intermediate term trend level right less than or excuse me,
more than three months, and I don't just I just
don't get excited about it unless I see a close
(05:51):
below that that trend level for at least three days.
And now you might remember last week, if we look
at how this played out on Wednesday to twenty fourth,
it cut through trend on Wednesday to twenty fifth, that
stayed below trend, but then on Friday the twenty sixth
that popped up above trend, and then on Monday the
(06:12):
twenty ninth, it just kind of hung around trend. And
then the thirtieth, oh it dropped below trend again. Oh no, no.
And well then on Wednesday, last day of the month.
Sure it might have been window dressing popped up above trend,
and it did it on good volume, right, So, I
mean it clearly showed that it wasn't Aunt Mabel and
Uncle Bob buying stock. It was you know, it was
(06:32):
likely some institutional efforts that we're moving in. And so
we've got a volatility matrix that is suggesting a turnaround,
a bounce of some type. We've got an oversold overbought
scenario where it's more over sold and it hasn't triggered
an actual over sold condition, but it's very very close.
So trend for the S and P five hundred right
(06:54):
now is fifty four fifty six, and we closed at
fifty four forty six, just below it. Right, if the
line's thick enough, it's right on it. But point is
is that it's right there, it's just flirting with it.
So here's a scenario where we would anticipate a move
higher in the S and P five hundred to test
(07:14):
that trade level of fifty five to fifty eight one
more time. If it fails there, then chances are good that,
you know, some defensiveness might want to be put in place,
you know, perhaps a little bit stronger than not. And
and so we'll see what happens with that, right, We'll
just we've got to wait and see how it works. Now,
(07:36):
the NASDACK looks a little different. It's trading below its
intermediate term trend level. Intermediate term trend for the NASDACK
is seventeen seven oh six. It rallied up and failed
right at that level and then closed the day at
its longer term trend level, and that longer term trend
level is seventeen one thirty eight. Right, So it's literally
right there. Now, what we have with the NASDACK that
(07:57):
we don't have with the S and P five hundred
is an over sold condition. It's a pretty big over
sold condition. And when you consider interest rates dropping the
way that they have, it's creating a fairly large gap. Right,
And so you ask yourself, okay, at what point does
tech chase the reduced interest rate cycle? Right? Okay, it
(08:18):
might We just have to see how that plays out.
It's a you know, kind of a duration type asset,
So we don't have a strong buy signal anywhere, but
we've got a fairly strong over sold condition in the
Nasdaq right now that we just need to be mindful of.
Russell two thousand, of course, has had an interesting move
(08:39):
higher coming into the middle of July, and so it
closed just below its trade level of twenty one ninety.
It closed at twenty one eighty six, trade levels at
twenty one ninety. Trend level for the Russell two thousands
at twenty one fifteen twenty one sixteen, and chances are
it's going to test that. That's kind of the way
(08:59):
it looks. One of the things that is very different
with regards to the Rustle two thousand and the SMP
five hundred are its longer term trend ranges, right, And
so we'd look at them on a calculate them on
a daily basis, and then do it on a longer
term basis, something that would be out about three years
(09:21):
or so, right, And so it takes into consideration a
rate of change on a basis or time series of
three years or more. Okay, fine, beautiful. Well, the downside
on the SMP five hundred is now capped with its
current level of fifty three eight. So what does that mean?
Just means that if the SMP were to sell off
to fifty threeh eight, people would lose their minds, Volatility
(09:45):
would spike, everyone would think the world is coming to
an end, and yet it would hit a level that
it has not had the opportunity to hit since well
since really the April bottom and then prior to that,
the October bottom that kind of launched this bull market
that we're currently in. Right so October November of twenty
(10:07):
twenty three launched the current bull market. April was a
correction and a test of the bull market, and maybe
we're running through that same cycle again. I don't know.
You know, we'll see, but you know, you shouldn't lose
your mind if the market does sell off down to
that let's call it fifty three hundred level, and then
(10:30):
I think from there you'd see a fairly strong bounce higher.
Some of it's going to depend on what happens with
the volatility structure. Right now, VIX is in a bullish
condition and it's got a fairly strong trend level down
at about fifteen, and so's it's bounced off of that
fifteen ish area now for the last couple of weeks
(10:54):
after it had broken through it, and so we've got
a range on the SMP of about sixteen to twenty two. Now,
if you get into the twenties with VIX, it is
a lose your mind environment, because that's what bulls do.
They lose their minds. When VIX gets above twenty, it's
pack it in. The whole world is over. Forget about it.
(11:14):
And that's how people treat it. And it's unfortunate. It
doesn't necessarily mean that the whole world is coming to
an end or a close or you know, going to
completely get clobbered, but the point is is that it could.
And when you get increased degrees of volatility, when a
dealer structure is in negative gamma, then you get volatility
(11:35):
in both directions up and down right, you get hard
down days, you get hard up days, and that's what
we've been seeing over the past week, week and a half,
and so currently still in this short gamma position, there's
no reason why we should think anything other than what
we've been getting. And okay, fine, ticket day by day.
That's all you can do. It's all you can do.
(11:57):
Tenure treasury drop all four percent for the first time
in a long time, so that's below trend. Yields are bearish,
signaling lower lows, just again trying to price in the
possibility of a recession. To your treasury, interestingly got a
buy signal on its yield because it's over sold. So
(12:17):
what's that mean to your treasury probably bounces to four
forty ish, let's say four thirty three to four forty
that's the level that the two year treasury probably bounces to.
Ten year treasury probably bounces to about four ten to
four fourteen if it goes there. Just buy bonds, and
(12:40):
not just any bond by treasuries, by the belly of
the curve, by seven to ten year treasuries, by twenty
plus year treasuries. Proxies for that would be I e.
F Indigo, Edward foxtrot, and the longer term one would
be TLT. Those would not be bad positions to build
up into if we see interest rates get up to
(13:02):
those levels, because I think they're gonna fail, because they're
just signaling the potential impossibility of a recession. Gold everybody
loves gold. If it gets down to twenty three ninety one,
buy it. That's trade. It's very close to longer term trend.
Right below it is another trend level of twenty three
sixty nine. You might remember the last podcasts I have
(13:26):
talked about gold more likely than not heading up towards
twenty five hundred an ounce. Last time gold got down
to its trend of about twenty three seventy, I said
the same thing. I said, buy it, just own it.
And so we'll see how that one goes. But it
definitely looks right now like it's right for a small pullback,
(13:47):
and that pullback first stop would be twenty three ninety one.
So if you see twenty three ninety one, that's the
spot where you can add a little bit and then
see what happens bitcoin. Everybody wonders what's going on with bitcoin.
It's fine, it's fine, it's fine. Strong level sixty two nine,
sixty two nine, sixty three thousand somewhere in there is
(14:08):
a strong level. Sixty two five is another very strong level.
And if those levels get hit again they did today,
not a bad spot to add to your bitcoin portfolio.
If it hits sixty thousand five hundred. This is an
interesting spot. If bitcoin hits sixty thousand, five hundred, that
(14:30):
is a very strong level because if you look at
it on a weekly basis, so a longer term trade cycle,
longer term trade level, sixty thousand, five hundred is an
area that is definitely one that I would want to
be a buyer of, and if it hits that, I
will do my level best to buy some more bitcoin.
(14:52):
I do think bitcoin has a very strong future ahead
of it for a whole host of reasons. But right now,
you got to deal with some of the negativity, You
got to deal with some of the volatility, and hey,
welcome to markets, because that's how it goes and that's
what you get. So hey, all right, that's the end
of another quick update. What am I expecting for tomorrow,
(15:12):
August the second. I'm expecting a bounce in the major markets.
It would be interesting to see if whether or not
we get the S and P five hundred backup to
fifty five fifty eight, and if it can hold above
fifty five to fifty eight, we're often running again. I
don't have a lot of confidence that that happens. So
for us, if we see fifty five to fifty eight. Again,
(15:33):
Chances are we cut some exposure to our equity holdings
and step back and keep our bond and gold and
stuff like that and just kind of wait for this
macro market to cycle itself out a little bit. Maybe
we get an interesting move with earnings. So far, Amazon
and Apple announced tonight. Both had very very good numbers.
Apple beat on every metric with the exception of sales
(15:55):
of their Mac. Amazon did really well with their clouds
stuff Aws, and everybody was excited about Apple stuff, but
not so excited about Amazon's stuff. After hours is always
a mess. It's always hard to calibrate what's going on
in market space when after hour stuff is going on.
(16:17):
Like I said, yesterday you had Meta blowing it through
the roof after hours and the market ended up getting clobbered.
Today today you got Amazon getting hammered after hours to
seventy one. And who knows, maybe we wake up and
markets are rallying paradox right, crazy crazy stuff. So could
app Apple be a good catalyst for tomorrow? Maybe we'll see.
(16:40):
The market seems to like Apple's data a little bit
better than Amazon's at this point, only because it's it's
up slightly, and I mean slightly, like three quarters of
a percent. I would expect a much bigger bounce if
markets were really really excited to buy tech, and clearly
right here, right now, in this market side, they're not
(17:01):
excited to buy tech. So pay attention to the levels
I gave you. Watch out for what's going on in
the macro market with interest rates, the US dollar, and
of course oil. As oil continues to deflate, it just
points towards a weakening demand structure for global economic activity.
Same thing could be said for copper. Copper looks terrible.
(17:23):
Copper is something that probably continues to go down. If
it moves up towards for forty a pound for futures,
great spot to short it because it doesn't look good
on a global scale. So that's where we're at. If
you have any questions, shoot me an email info at
carefromiwealth dot com. If you'd like to be placed on
our morning email list that gives you the top things
(17:45):
that you want to pay attention to in very concise
bullet point format. I'd love to put you on the list.
Just again, shoot me an email info at carefromiwealth dot com.
This is the care for my Wealth Show. I'm your host,
Chris Clin. We'll see you next time.
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