March 12, 2026 • 10 mins
Hunter Sansom is "NKY Bracket Guy" (@BracketNKY), and he's our official bracketologist. We discussed Miami's situation following the Redhawks' loss to UMass, as well as the seeding possibilities Kentucky, Ohio State, and Louisville. We also discussed how bad the bubble is and what could've been for the Bearcats.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Thirty Cincinnati Sports Station. You cram a lot into two hours,
which we're having to do today. Tomorrow's show will be
even shorter. By the way, Tennessee just polished off Auburn
seventy two to sixty two. Tigers were in control of
that game and then they weren't. That is that is
good news for the Miami RedHawks, who unfortunately lost today
(00:23):
their first loss of the season, suffered at the hands
of UMass in Cleveland Mac Tournament eighty seven to eighty three.
The prevailing sentiment is that the RedHawks are still going
to be in. But I wanted to bring on the
Tri States resident bracketologist. He's no longer just the official
bracketologist of this show, NKY bracketology dot com our guy
(00:44):
Hunter Sansom and kind enough to join us. The RedHawks
are still in, right The.
Speaker 2 (00:53):
RedHawks are still in the tournament as of right now, Yes,
are they playing in Dayton. I want to see everything
update and kind of everything happened today before I say
definitely yes or no. But as of right now I
have them above Dayton, but they're my first team not
in Dayton at this time.
Speaker 1 (01:09):
How much does Auburn losing help it very much, so
helps just watch them lose.
Speaker 2 (01:15):
Gave up like a twenty nothing run here at the
end of the game to fall apart against Tennessee. Auburn
is below Miami at this point.
Speaker 1 (01:21):
Who still is playing that RedHawks fans should be paying
attention to.
Speaker 2 (01:27):
So anybody on the eight nine ten lines are teams
that you all should be paying attention to. For Miami, apologies,
my computer restarted, but VCU comes up tomorrow. I think
Missouri's out, yeah, I mean other than that, realistically, a
lot of these bubble teams are done. You can look
at the Mountain West teams, you'r New Mexico, your San
Diego States, But other than that, there's not much left
(01:51):
out there on the bubble. Seaton Hall is still playing
in the Big East, but they have to win the
conference to get in, so they wouldn't necessarily affect Miami
a ton, but definitely want Ukon Saint John's Villanova to
win that conference.
Speaker 1 (02:03):
Wednesday and well, I should say Tuesday and Wednesday were
filled with bubble teams not winning. How much? How much
do things get changed if even for Miami specifically, if
even a handful of those teams win games.
Speaker 2 (02:18):
We're probably having a completely different conversation about them at
least being in Dayton and being kind of locked into
that Dayton or worse. But I mean, with all of
this carnage that we've had along the bubble, you can't
tell me a team one game above five hundred should
be in over a team that went thirty one and
one at this point.
Speaker 1 (02:34):
They lose a four point game today on a neutral court.
If today's loss had been more lobsided, would that have
factored into their candidacy?
Speaker 2 (02:44):
I think so to an extent. However, with Miami, it's
never about the predictive metrics, which is really where that
the margin plays in. I think for Miami it's all
about just how strong that resume is, how strong the
record is, and I mean this six Q four loss
jump up to Q three, But I don't think margin
necessarily will be a big issue. That could have been
(03:05):
worse for sure.
Speaker 1 (03:06):
All Right, So as of right now, we have the
RedHawks in the Dance and not playing in Dayton. So
if they're not playing in Dayton and they fall because
the team are two wins, it's hard for me to believe.
And you know a lot more about this process than
I do that they go from team number sixty four
to team number sixty nine. Is that a okay way
of looking at it?
Speaker 2 (03:28):
I want to say yes. Right now, I'm going to
have them sixty four ish is about right, sixty three
sixty four, but I think they're in. But I have
trouble necessarily seeing them fall that far. It's definitely possible
at this point. But the committee, I mean again, we've
never had a team with this mini wins not make
the tournament. This is not the season to start picking
(03:51):
that kind of team to leave out.
Speaker 1 (03:52):
I feel like we hear the term weak bubble every year,
but this year feels historically weak. Would you agree?
Speaker 2 (04:00):
I agree? And the data back set up when you
start looking at cross comparing, and I won't get super
into the weeds, but when you cross compare like efficiencies
and these types of things, the top thirty teams are
just over heels better than the rest of the country,
and it's really affected just.
Speaker 1 (04:15):
How good the bubble is.
Speaker 2 (04:16):
It's the weakest bubble I've ever seen.
Speaker 1 (04:18):
Do the net ratings matter less this year than previous years?
Speaker 2 (04:23):
Great question and something I get all the time on
social media. The net ranking does not actually matter other
than getting you split into your quadrant rankings, your resume
and your predictive metrics are what matter. There are six
of them.
Speaker 1 (04:35):
I will have a.
Speaker 2 (04:36):
Video out this evening explaining that breakdown on bracket in
Ky on Twitter, and it'll be up on my website.
I would strongly suggest everybody watch that. But they matter.
The net does not necessarily matter a ton.
Speaker 1 (04:48):
I feel like I've heard the term wins above bubble
this year more than any other year. What is wins
above bubble?
Speaker 2 (04:55):
Whin's about bubble is actually a great new metric. It's
on the newer side, invented I think ty fifteen, and
it's basically, if you're a positive wins above bubble, then
that means you are two or three or whatever the
number is wins above what they would expect a traditional
Bubble team in this year's tournament to be. So for Miami,
they were roughly two wins above bubble this morning. That
(05:17):
means that they had won two more games than you
would expect an average Bubble team to win.
Speaker 1 (05:20):
Now, of course they lost.
Speaker 2 (05:22):
I think this is going to hurt them about half
a game two point seventy five games, so it will
knock them down a little bit, but they still stay
above what a typical bubble team would do.
Speaker 1 (05:30):
Given the fact that nobody else seemed to want to
grab a bid yesterday and on Tuesday, torture me. Had
Cincinnati held on to beat UCF, would they be in
the field.
Speaker 2 (05:41):
In the field, maybe not, but they would have at
least had a shot to jump up. With how everything
played out, without having seen what their wins above bubble
or strength, the record would have moved to. It's really
hard for me to give you yes or a no,
but I want to say they might have been.
Speaker 1 (05:56):
What can Kentucky do with their seed if they win
tomorrow and then keep winning after beating Florida.
Speaker 2 (06:03):
I think it's sixth seed is Kentucky's ceiling. We've seen
the committee not necessarily always value the conference tournaments, especially
in the SEC with A and M a.
Speaker 1 (06:11):
Couple of years back.
Speaker 2 (06:12):
So I think they might jump up another seed line
or so, but I don't see them jumping out much
more than that.
Speaker 1 (06:16):
Ohio State, I think deserves a lot of credit because
they've done what others haven't. Right, they've I don't know
that they needed to win today. You can correct me
on that, but with bids up for grabs. They've won
four consecutive games. What can the buck guys do for
their seed by beating Michigan tomorrow?
Speaker 2 (06:32):
If they meet Michigan, eight seeds not out of the question.
I currently have them on the nine line. You could
make an argument for the eight already, and you're absolutely right.
They did not have to win today, but this definitely
helps slip by them their lowest. I think they'll be
now as an eight, but they feel like they're gonna
end up playing in that eight to nine game, which
means you're gonna be looking at the number one seed.
Speaker 1 (06:51):
Indiana is not Indiana is not making the tournament correct correct?
What's the best case for Louisville?
Speaker 2 (06:58):
Best case I think for Louisville, especially after today, six
se feels about right for them. I do think Kentucky
could knock them down to the seven line, though.
Speaker 1 (07:07):
Is the current landscape the strongest argument against tournament expansion?
Speaker 2 (07:11):
Yes, I don't know how you can look at teams
like California, Indiana, Auburn, I mean, Cincinnati. You could make
an argument played better at the end of the year,
but you can't necessarily make an argument that these teams
deserve to be in the field right now. Expanding it,
those teams would all have been in.
Speaker 1 (07:26):
How do I get one of your polo shirts?
Speaker 2 (07:29):
I will send you a DM after this.
Speaker 1 (07:32):
Where can others buy one of your polo shirts?
Speaker 2 (07:35):
So right now the link is floating around. I will
tweet it out after we get done here. Had some
requests for merch. So there's a polo, there's a T shirt,
and there's a hoodie and there's a wineglass onto it.
So that is linked right now. You use the code
this is March. You get ten percent off your order.
I launched it last night. I appreciate everybody's support and
everybody's been great with it. So I'll tweet that link out.
(07:58):
I'll tag you moos so you have it as well,
and we'll go from.
Speaker 1 (08:00):
There at bracket nk Y on Twitter nky, bracketology dot com.
Uh enjoy, enjoy the weekend. Man. We'll probably bother you
early next week just to see how you did versus
the actual selection commedy man, thanks so much. Sounds great,
Thanks Fantas. That's our guy, Hunter sandsum Terran shows over,
Yes another day, no cuts, all right, I'll pull back
(08:23):
the curtain Tarn produces this show and does an awesome job.
And we talk about, like, here's some audio I want
to use, and he goes back and he cuts up
all this audio. And I had him cut up a
bunch of audio yesterday and we didn't use it, and
then today cut up a bunch of audio and we
didn't use it. Tell me about Jonathan Allen, really quick,
solid defensive tackle. We have got rid of them. Do
the money.
Speaker 3 (08:43):
Yeah, we got a second second year guy, Jaylen Redman,
who pretty much put up the same numbers.
Speaker 1 (08:48):
Looks a little cheaper, all right, but he thought he
played a lot last year. It wasn't he was. It
was okay, right, yeah, okay, he'll be great alongside Bjhare. Yeah, okay,
the A and linebacker. Cause you guys are cutting the
week he'd use. You can probably get Ivan Paige Junior
if you want, let's go. He plays linebacker. Literally, anybody
who plays linebacker I will take. I don't care who
(09:10):
they are. I don't care if you play linebacker in
the CFL. I don't care if you play linebacker in
the USFL or the Arena League. I don't care if
you played linebacker at Oak Hills High school. Can you
play linebacker? Well? Have you played linebacker on Like a
Man video game before ten yard Fight? Yes? Have you
got there and play linebacker? I could. Wouldn't go well
for the Bengals, but wouldn't go well for me. But anybody,
(09:32):
if you've ever played linebacker, call Duke Toven might have
a job for you. Maybe Philantho the phone All right
on the air tomorrow roughly four thirty because the UK Hoops.
Have a great night. Thanks to Terran for producing and
doing a bunch of work that we didn't take advantage of.
Have a great night. Talk to you tomorrow, ESPN fifteen thirty.
Cincinnati Sports Station Cincinnati's ESPN fifteen thirty Traffic.
Speaker 3 (10:11):
From the UC Health Traffic Center. The new uc Ohchher
Wellness Suite is a home for transformative whole person well
being backed by Science. Register for classes now visit UCHealth
dot com. The left three lanes are all blocked off
now from an overturned vehicle on westbound two seventy five
after Blue Rock traffic using the ramp lane to get
(10:32):
around that scene. Westbound nor Wood Lateral at Montgomery Road
and accident has got the right lane blocked off on
that exelic with traffic.
Speaker 1 (10:41):
This report is sponsored
Thirty Cincinnati Sports Station. You cram a lot into two hours,
which we're having to do today. Tomorrow's show will be
even shorter. By the way, Tennessee just polished off Auburn
seventy two to sixty two. Tigers were in control of
that game and then they weren't. That is that is
good news for the Miami RedHawks, who unfortunately lost today
(00:23):
their first loss of the season, suffered at the hands
of UMass in Cleveland Mac Tournament eighty seven to eighty three.
The prevailing sentiment is that the RedHawks are still going
to be in. But I wanted to bring on the
Tri States resident bracketologist. He's no longer just the official
bracketologist of this show, NKY bracketology dot com our guy
(00:44):
Hunter Sansom and kind enough to join us. The RedHawks
are still in, right The.
Speaker 2 (00:53):
RedHawks are still in the tournament as of right now, Yes,
are they playing in Dayton. I want to see everything
update and kind of everything happened today before I say
definitely yes or no. But as of right now I
have them above Dayton, but they're my first team not
in Dayton at this time.
Speaker 1 (01:09):
How much does Auburn losing help it very much, so
helps just watch them lose.
Speaker 2 (01:15):
Gave up like a twenty nothing run here at the
end of the game to fall apart against Tennessee. Auburn
is below Miami at this point.
Speaker 1 (01:21):
Who still is playing that RedHawks fans should be paying
attention to.
Speaker 2 (01:27):
So anybody on the eight nine ten lines are teams
that you all should be paying attention to. For Miami, apologies,
my computer restarted, but VCU comes up tomorrow. I think
Missouri's out, yeah, I mean other than that, realistically, a
lot of these bubble teams are done. You can look
at the Mountain West teams, you'r New Mexico, your San
Diego States, But other than that, there's not much left
(01:51):
out there on the bubble. Seaton Hall is still playing
in the Big East, but they have to win the
conference to get in, so they wouldn't necessarily affect Miami
a ton, but definitely want Ukon Saint John's Villanova to
win that conference.
Speaker 1 (02:03):
Wednesday and well, I should say Tuesday and Wednesday were
filled with bubble teams not winning. How much? How much
do things get changed if even for Miami specifically, if
even a handful of those teams win games.
Speaker 2 (02:18):
We're probably having a completely different conversation about them at
least being in Dayton and being kind of locked into
that Dayton or worse. But I mean, with all of
this carnage that we've had along the bubble, you can't
tell me a team one game above five hundred should
be in over a team that went thirty one and
one at this point.
Speaker 1 (02:34):
They lose a four point game today on a neutral court.
If today's loss had been more lobsided, would that have
factored into their candidacy?
Speaker 2 (02:44):
I think so to an extent. However, with Miami, it's
never about the predictive metrics, which is really where that
the margin plays in. I think for Miami it's all
about just how strong that resume is, how strong the
record is, and I mean this six Q four loss
jump up to Q three, But I don't think margin
necessarily will be a big issue. That could have been
(03:05):
worse for sure.
Speaker 1 (03:06):
All Right, So as of right now, we have the
RedHawks in the Dance and not playing in Dayton. So
if they're not playing in Dayton and they fall because
the team are two wins, it's hard for me to believe.
And you know a lot more about this process than
I do that they go from team number sixty four
to team number sixty nine. Is that a okay way
of looking at it?
Speaker 2 (03:28):
I want to say yes. Right now, I'm going to
have them sixty four ish is about right, sixty three
sixty four, but I think they're in. But I have
trouble necessarily seeing them fall that far. It's definitely possible
at this point. But the committee, I mean again, we've
never had a team with this mini wins not make
the tournament. This is not the season to start picking
(03:51):
that kind of team to leave out.
Speaker 1 (03:52):
I feel like we hear the term weak bubble every year,
but this year feels historically weak. Would you agree?
Speaker 2 (04:00):
I agree? And the data back set up when you
start looking at cross comparing, and I won't get super
into the weeds, but when you cross compare like efficiencies
and these types of things, the top thirty teams are
just over heels better than the rest of the country,
and it's really affected just.
Speaker 1 (04:15):
How good the bubble is.
Speaker 2 (04:16):
It's the weakest bubble I've ever seen.
Speaker 1 (04:18):
Do the net ratings matter less this year than previous years?
Speaker 2 (04:23):
Great question and something I get all the time on
social media. The net ranking does not actually matter other
than getting you split into your quadrant rankings, your resume
and your predictive metrics are what matter. There are six
of them.
Speaker 1 (04:35):
I will have a.
Speaker 2 (04:36):
Video out this evening explaining that breakdown on bracket in
Ky on Twitter, and it'll be up on my website.
I would strongly suggest everybody watch that. But they matter.
The net does not necessarily matter a ton.
Speaker 1 (04:48):
I feel like I've heard the term wins above bubble
this year more than any other year. What is wins
above bubble?
Speaker 2 (04:55):
Whin's about bubble is actually a great new metric. It's
on the newer side, invented I think ty fifteen, and
it's basically, if you're a positive wins above bubble, then
that means you are two or three or whatever the
number is wins above what they would expect a traditional
Bubble team in this year's tournament to be. So for Miami,
they were roughly two wins above bubble this morning. That
(05:17):
means that they had won two more games than you
would expect an average Bubble team to win.
Speaker 1 (05:20):
Now, of course they lost.
Speaker 2 (05:22):
I think this is going to hurt them about half
a game two point seventy five games, so it will
knock them down a little bit, but they still stay
above what a typical bubble team would do.
Speaker 1 (05:30):
Given the fact that nobody else seemed to want to
grab a bid yesterday and on Tuesday, torture me. Had
Cincinnati held on to beat UCF, would they be in
the field.
Speaker 2 (05:41):
In the field, maybe not, but they would have at
least had a shot to jump up. With how everything
played out, without having seen what their wins above bubble
or strength, the record would have moved to. It's really
hard for me to give you yes or a no,
but I want to say they might have been.
Speaker 1 (05:56):
What can Kentucky do with their seed if they win
tomorrow and then keep winning after beating Florida.
Speaker 2 (06:03):
I think it's sixth seed is Kentucky's ceiling. We've seen
the committee not necessarily always value the conference tournaments, especially
in the SEC with A and M a.
Speaker 1 (06:11):
Couple of years back.
Speaker 2 (06:12):
So I think they might jump up another seed line
or so, but I don't see them jumping out much
more than that.
Speaker 1 (06:16):
Ohio State, I think deserves a lot of credit because
they've done what others haven't. Right, they've I don't know
that they needed to win today. You can correct me
on that, but with bids up for grabs. They've won
four consecutive games. What can the buck guys do for
their seed by beating Michigan tomorrow?
Speaker 2 (06:32):
If they meet Michigan, eight seeds not out of the question.
I currently have them on the nine line. You could
make an argument for the eight already, and you're absolutely right.
They did not have to win today, but this definitely
helps slip by them their lowest. I think they'll be
now as an eight, but they feel like they're gonna
end up playing in that eight to nine game, which
means you're gonna be looking at the number one seed.
Speaker 1 (06:51):
Indiana is not Indiana is not making the tournament correct correct?
What's the best case for Louisville?
Speaker 2 (06:58):
Best case I think for Louisville, especially after today, six
se feels about right for them. I do think Kentucky
could knock them down to the seven line, though.
Speaker 1 (07:07):
Is the current landscape the strongest argument against tournament expansion?
Speaker 2 (07:11):
Yes, I don't know how you can look at teams
like California, Indiana, Auburn, I mean, Cincinnati. You could make
an argument played better at the end of the year,
but you can't necessarily make an argument that these teams
deserve to be in the field right now. Expanding it,
those teams would all have been in.
Speaker 1 (07:26):
How do I get one of your polo shirts?
Speaker 2 (07:29):
I will send you a DM after this.
Speaker 1 (07:32):
Where can others buy one of your polo shirts?
Speaker 2 (07:35):
So right now the link is floating around. I will
tweet it out after we get done here. Had some
requests for merch. So there's a polo, there's a T shirt,
and there's a hoodie and there's a wineglass onto it.
So that is linked right now. You use the code
this is March. You get ten percent off your order.
I launched it last night. I appreciate everybody's support and
everybody's been great with it. So I'll tweet that link out.
(07:58):
I'll tag you moos so you have it as well,
and we'll go from.
Speaker 1 (08:00):
There at bracket nk Y on Twitter nky, bracketology dot com.
Uh enjoy, enjoy the weekend. Man. We'll probably bother you
early next week just to see how you did versus
the actual selection commedy man, thanks so much. Sounds great,
Thanks Fantas. That's our guy, Hunter sandsum Terran shows over,
Yes another day, no cuts, all right, I'll pull back
(08:23):
the curtain Tarn produces this show and does an awesome job.
And we talk about, like, here's some audio I want
to use, and he goes back and he cuts up
all this audio. And I had him cut up a
bunch of audio yesterday and we didn't use it, and
then today cut up a bunch of audio and we
didn't use it. Tell me about Jonathan Allen, really quick,
solid defensive tackle. We have got rid of them. Do
the money.
Speaker 3 (08:43):
Yeah, we got a second second year guy, Jaylen Redman,
who pretty much put up the same numbers.
Speaker 1 (08:48):
Looks a little cheaper, all right, but he thought he
played a lot last year. It wasn't he was. It
was okay, right, yeah, okay, he'll be great alongside Bjhare. Yeah, okay,
the A and linebacker. Cause you guys are cutting the
week he'd use. You can probably get Ivan Paige Junior
if you want, let's go. He plays linebacker. Literally, anybody
who plays linebacker I will take. I don't care who
(09:10):
they are. I don't care if you play linebacker in
the CFL. I don't care if you play linebacker in
the USFL or the Arena League. I don't care if
you played linebacker at Oak Hills High school. Can you
play linebacker? Well? Have you played linebacker on Like a
Man video game before ten yard Fight? Yes? Have you
got there and play linebacker? I could. Wouldn't go well
for the Bengals, but wouldn't go well for me. But anybody,
(09:32):
if you've ever played linebacker, call Duke Toven might have
a job for you. Maybe Philantho the phone All right
on the air tomorrow roughly four thirty because the UK Hoops.
Have a great night. Thanks to Terran for producing and
doing a bunch of work that we didn't take advantage of.
Have a great night. Talk to you tomorrow, ESPN fifteen thirty.
Cincinnati Sports Station Cincinnati's ESPN fifteen thirty Traffic.
Speaker 3 (10:11):
From the UC Health Traffic Center. The new uc Ohchher
Wellness Suite is a home for transformative whole person well
being backed by Science. Register for classes now visit UCHealth
dot com. The left three lanes are all blocked off
now from an overturned vehicle on westbound two seventy five
after Blue Rock traffic using the ramp lane to get
(10:32):
around that scene. Westbound nor Wood Lateral at Montgomery Road
and accident has got the right lane blocked off on
that exelic with traffic.
Speaker 1 (10:41):
This report is sponsored
Mo Egger News
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