Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Well, speaking of a great podcast, he locked on Reds
podcast as hosted by Jeff Carr. He's with us, so
I don't know, man. The starting staff is a wreck,
the bullpen is a wreck, the offense is limited. They've
played forty seven games. I'm fearing that this is just
sort of what they are. Is that an overly pessimistic
(00:22):
and negative way of looking at things? From my being unfair, tell.
Speaker 2 (00:25):
Me, I think he might be just a slight bit
too pessimistic. I don't necessarily know that they're going to
win ninety five ball games. That's all some people going
that far after the month of April, and I never
thought that. But I still think they can win somewhere
between eighty seven and ninety and I think that could
get them the division championship. The reason for me that
I believe this is because I'm seeing the lineup really
(00:48):
start to come together. Albeit they got to figure out
the whole pitching thing, obviously, and most of that just
has to deal with throwing strikes. But I think that
we're seeing some guys really blossom. Eli Dela Cruz, hitting
three hundred, has every right to start the All Star
Game at shortstop for the National League. We've seen Spencer
stear really blossom. He even has some quality of contact
(01:10):
metrics that says this is only the beginning of how
good he can be this year. The South Stewart ended
his slump on Sunday, a slump that he still has
good quality of contact stuff behind it, and he's not
striking out a ton, So I believe that he will
be just fine. It's all going to be. Can we
get that reliability out of the bullpen that we had
(01:30):
even here just in the month of April, And honestly,
the entire pitching staff was second in all of Baseball
and wins above replacement last year. The only notable departures
outside of the injury to Hunter Green was Nick Martinez
and Brent Soonter. And while Nick Martinez is looking pretty
good down in Tampa Bay right now, I still believe
(01:51):
that they've got the talent that can figure some things
out and they're just going through a collective slump that
they'll bounce back from.
Speaker 1 (01:57):
You mentioned the offense. JJ Bleda has been a I
have two questions about him. I guess the first one
would be the most important is what he is doing sustainable.
Speaker 2 (02:07):
I think that I need to see a little bit
more for a little bit longer because of his career profile.
If this were Nate Low, I would say absolutely, But
I know who JJ Blade is on the back of
his baseball card, and what the back of his baseball
card says is have a little bit more patience than
what we've seen so far. It's been a very impressive
sample size, and at least when you watch him at
(02:30):
the plate, it doesn't feel like he's getting lucky. It
doesn't feel like pitchers are just randomly throwing meatball after
meatball and he's taking advantage of it. He's having good
at bats, but I do know that there's been some
years where he's been a little bit lean on the
offensive category, so I want to see more from him.
I've definitely been very excited about him, and I don't
think there's anyone else that should be starting in the
(02:51):
lineup over him, But I don't want to go as
far as saying, yes, he is a core member of
the twenty twenty sixth Cincinnati Reds lineup.
Speaker 1 (02:59):
I know that got off to a fast start, which
maybe makes the point move, but is a fair to
wonder why he wasn't on the opening day roster given
how good he was down on Arizona one hundred percent.
Speaker 2 (03:08):
I mean, Loelvie Marte was swinging at forty seven percent
of the pitches he saw outside of the strength zone
to begin the season. And while you say, yeah, he
finished the year super well last year and he had
the biggest moment of the season, how could you not
have him on the opening day roster? His spring training
was russ and JJ Bleday's wasn't. So I kind of
feel like the Reds went into that with a little
(03:30):
bit more tunnel vision than we give them credit for,
and JJ Bleday absolutely should have been on the opening
day roster.
Speaker 1 (03:36):
They're using Dane Myers and Will Benson in the leadoff spot.
Can can a team get to that win total that
you mentioned eighty seven and ninety And we're going to
talk about some of the pitching issues here in a second,
But can an offense guiding a team that's going to
win that many games have those two dudes leading off?
Speaker 2 (03:54):
Wow, that is a tough question. I feel better about
day Myers than I do about Will Benson. Albeit Will
Benson's had a deet on base ability this year, He's
just not hitting the ball very well at all, and
he's got a high whiff rate for a guy that
you're giving the most at bats too. In my opinion,
I think they should hit Ellie de la Cruz lead off.
(04:14):
You should hit your best guy the most times. It
kind of feels like a very simplified way of attacking
a lineup. But I think at this point, without the
clearly defined roles for each and every player in this lineup,
that the Reds are missing. Just in lieu of that,
just put him up top. And I mean, the Dodgers
do the show, Heytani. And if there's anybody in the
(04:35):
major leagues that has a lineup full of guys who
you could easily define their roles, it's the Los Angeles Dodgers.
And so I think that at this point we just
need to see Elliot pop. Let's see if they can
get some support behind him, and then move on from there,
because I don't worry so much about who's going to
hit Ellie in as I worry about how many outs
Ellie comes up to the plate with.
Speaker 1 (04:57):
Well said Jeff Carr, locked on Reds. What has happened
to Tyler Stephenson.
Speaker 2 (05:03):
Dude, he is swinging and missing at everything right now,
and he is the quintessential Like, don't go too crazy
about the quality of contact metrics, because every year since
he's been called up, his you know, hard hit rate,
average action of the lassie barrels, all that stuff points
to a guy who should be hitting much higher on
(05:24):
the batting average, much higher on the slugin percentage, and
getting on base a lot more. And yet that's not happened.
And he's twenty nine, and he's in his contract year,
and at this point you kind of wonder a little
bit about what's going on with him because it feels
like he's pressing his last at bat. He's struck out
on a pitch that was about three inches outside the
strike zone for him, and he went back to the
(05:46):
dugout just shaking his head as though he had no
clue what just happened. And that at that And so
for a guy that has struggled to this point in
the season, I really thought that we would begin to
see him break out of that. And if anything, it
looks like it's deepening. Yeah.
Speaker 1 (06:03):
No, I mean that's a guy who I would have thought,
by now five years ago was a perennial All Star
and the drop off has been has been stark. The
drop off. Speaking of drop offs, the Bullpen first three
weeks it was a bona fide weapon top to bottom.
Since it's been anything, But should we believe that the
(06:24):
group is currently constructed, and obviously they don't have Amelia Pegan,
But should we believe that this group is currently constructed
can get back to something replicating the form of the
first three weeks.
Speaker 2 (06:36):
I believe so, so long as Graham Ashcraft can prove
to me in his next outing that what just happened
on Saturday is not going to linger, because my goodness,
when you know, I was thinking of that. You remember
a couple of years ago, Texas A and I me
and maybe they still do it. But Texas A and
M and all the fans chanting ball four ball, eight
ball twelve. That's what I heard when I was watching
(06:58):
him pitch against the Cleveland Guardian. And then he goes
oh two on the next guy with the bases loaded
and throws him a meatball and he hits a two
r behind double and I'm like, Okay, that's this. This
was a moment that it felt like like sure Sunday stunk,
and the Guardians just could not miss anything that was
thrown plate with him and Brady Singer looked bad. The
(07:20):
game that you have to really harp on is Saturday,
because they had every chance to win it and the
bullpen gave it away in the worst way possible, just
by walking everybody. Who's your pitch? That I A'm dinning?
I don't know, because man, it was fun to talk
about Tjynton on Friday night. I'm I think I'm still
(07:42):
leaning on Graham Ashcraft for that. I think that Tito
has marked him as like a fireman where it's like,
if I've got a point in the game where I
need my guy, he's my guy. And so I kind
of like that, And that's hard to say that you
got to remainder him to the ninth inning only, but
I think if I need a save and I need
(08:03):
three outs to get through this game, he feels like
the guy right now because Pierce Johnson just seems a
little bit too volatile, like if the curve ball ain't working,
he ain't working. And when you see guys like that,
it's hard to trust them on a night in a
night out basis, We'll be happy with the good performances,
but for me to say that I believe Pierce Johnson
(08:23):
should be the closer. I liked his role as a
mid release guy much more than a high leverage guy.
And once they get Caleb Ferguson back, hopefully that could
be a dude who really blossoms for him in that role.
But as of right now, I just I don't know
that it's anybody but Graham Ashcraft.
Speaker 1 (08:40):
Brady Singer has made three starts out of ten where
he's gotten through six innings. I need six innings from him.
I think people forget, especially in August last year, how
good and how reliable he was. He has been anything
but for this team this year. What has gone wrong.
Speaker 2 (08:57):
He has this opposite problem from the rest of the
Reds pitching staff that doesn't seem to throw the ball
in the strike zone. His problem is throwing the ball
in the strike zone because ninety percent of the pitches
he throws in the strike zone are getting hit. And
he has a very high batting average on balls and play,
which might tell you he's getting a little bit lucky.
(09:18):
But he gives up so much contact and so much
hard hit contact that is so much different from last year.
Last year he was doing a really good job of
getting these types of hits, or guys that be popping
the ball up, hitting a weak fly ball, you move
on to the next guy. Right now. That guy is
hitting the ball more toward the barrel of a baseball.
(09:39):
His barrel rate is close to Ellie's barrel rate, And
while we're happy about Ellie's, we're not happy about Brady
Singer's barrel rate being that high. And so for me,
it's all about the fact that sure, he's filling up
the strike zone with a bunch of batting practice type
pitches and guys are just teeing off on him right now.
So he's got to figure out what it is that
(10:00):
next step is. Because this last start, according to the stack cast,
his velocity was up, So it has nothing to do
with how fast or how slow he's throwing his pitches.
Just don't know that he's getting the right amount of
movement on him. And I think that his confidence in turn,
has been affected such that it looks like he's really
trying to place every pitch, and any coach on down
(10:20):
to little Legal Dalla, you can't place pitches right now.
That seems to be his problem.
Speaker 1 (10:25):
One more, if you were in charge, what would the
plan be with Edwin Royo.
Speaker 2 (10:31):
He'd be here right now trying to think of what
the move would have to be to open up a spot.
Maybe you send down TJ. Friedel because I just I
feel like he's got to see the ball hit the
grass right now. Like there's nothing that TJ. Friedel is
going to go down and learn. Skill wise. It's going
to help him out. He already has the skills, it's
(10:52):
just he's been in such a deep slump. I think
he needs to see the ball hit the grass. And
in turn, I think you bring up a guy who's
as hot as the surface of the in Edwin Arroyo
at the plate right now, and you really open up
a possibility where keep Byan Hayes is literally just there
to be a defensive replacement. And that's where we've got
to be with this, because Edwin and Royo could provide
(11:13):
you so much more value than I think even a
lucky key Brian Hayes could at the plate.
Speaker 1 (11:20):
We're on the same page with everything you just said. Man,
I appreciate the time on somewhat short notice. We'll do
it again soon and by the next time we talk
to you, hopefully things will have a turn for the better.
Speaker 2 (11:30):
Well, I appreciate Stu dude, and go Reds.
Speaker 1 (11:33):
There you go, Yeah, you'll get in an argument for me.
Go Reds, Red's and Phillies tonight, first of three in Philadelphia.
Listen to Jeff's podcast, the Locked On Reds Podcast. As
we say all the time, where you get your podcasts,
including the iHeartRadio apph We are done tomorrow Paul Danner
Junior in studio on the Bengals, Red's, Philly's, Riching in
so much more. Thanks to Taran Plan for producing, and
(11:55):
thanks to you for listening. Have an awesome night and
we'll talk to you tomorrow on ESPN fifteen thirty Cincinnati Sports.
Speaker 2 (12:01):
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Speaker 1 (12:11):
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