September 12, 2026 • 10 mins
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Hey, what's up? I'm Mo Egger, and this is Back
of the Envelope Bets. Thank you for listening on the
iHeartRadio app or where you get your podcasts. Or if
you're watching on YouTube, thank you for watching. This is
our little betting show. When I say a little betting show,
these are not going to be 45-minute, one-hour-long, three-hour-long betting shows.
We're just talking college and pro football bets. This is
(00:21):
our fourth show we've done. We did one before week
zero of college football, kind of explained the concept. So
if you want to hear about it, go back there.
I'll just repeat this. on this show, sometimes you're going
to hear me talk about making a bet on a
team I care about. And sometimes you won't, um, because
sometimes I bet on teams I care about. And sometimes
(00:41):
I don't, uh, we did a show earlier this week
where we focused on a lot. And I mean, a
lot of NFL futures, including a lot of Bengals related
futures and props go listen to it. We also talked
about the two NFL games to start the season. We
went one in one. Uh, and so we, uh, We
missed on the Seahawks, who didn't cover. The 49ers covered easily.
(01:04):
Should have taken the money line with San Fran. One-on-one start.
We're going to start this week with NFL games and
then do college. Let's start with Detroit and New Orleans.
The Saints are a very– they're the hipster's pick to
be really good, to win the NFC South, to be
good in the NFC. And I get it, man. Like,
Tyler Shuck might be a good quarterback. They played very
well at the end of the season, but they beat
(01:25):
bad teams. And I think the hype train is moving
a little bit too quickly. I'm taking the Lions. The
Saints are the hipster pick. The Lions, to me, are
the fun pick to make the Super Bowl because if
you believe the Bengals can get there, is there a
more fun matchup than Cincinnati and Detroit? Two long-suffering Midwest cities,
(01:47):
two cold-weather cities, at least in February, with the teams
playing in Los Angeles like Zach Taylor and Dan Campbell
are BFFs. Going to get a lot of Jameer Gibbs
in this game. This number should be maybe a little
bit bigger. I'm going to lay the 6.5 points with Detroit.
I'm going to lay 7.5 with Jacksonville. Jags are the
most popular survivor pool pick week one. I've got them
(02:10):
in two survivor pools. We're going to lay 7.5 with
the Jags. I think the Jacksonville D is slept on.
This is a really tough spot for a team that's
got Deshaun Watson making his return, that's got a new
head coach, and doesn't have a lot of good established
NFL players. We're going to lay seven and a half
with the Jags. We're also going to take a Brian
(02:30):
Thomas anytime touchdown, not the 55 KRC morning host, but
the Jacksonville wide receiver. We're going to lay a point
and a half with Buffalo over Houston. The Texans are
going to be good. The Texans defense is going to
be really good. Texans defense has given Josh Allen fits,
completed just 30% of his passes against Houston two years ago,
sacked eight times last year. At some point, the reigning
(02:53):
MVP is going to have a good game against the Texans.
You talk about hype trains that I think are moving
a little bit too quickly, a little bit too fast.
I think the Texans, I am going to take a
David Montgomery anytime touchdown, but I am going to lay
the point and a half with the road team. Give
me the Bills over Houston. We already have a game
that's got possible NFL draft implications. Titans, Jets, Cam Ward.
(03:16):
Is there a recent quarterback taken number one overall who
has talked about less than Cam Ward? I will bet
on him making like a, a year to mini leap
more than I'll bet on Gino Smith doing anything. Gino
Smith is oddly washed up, although never really, really good.
I'll lay the point and a half with the Titans.
(03:37):
I'm going to lay nine and a half with the chargers.
We talked on the future show about the Cardinals and
our wager on them being the worst team in the NFL,
Jim Harbaugh, week one, six and oh, straight up. Um,
His two tackles are back. I'm bullish on the Chargers
this year. I'm going to go ahead and lay 9.5
with L.A. I'm going to take 3.5 with Indy over Baltimore.
(04:00):
We've talked on the future show about fading the Ravens
a little bit. There's just week one I'm looking for continuity.
And even though Daniel Jones is attempting to come back
and there's a lot of people who believe he's not
quite where he needs to be, I'm going to take
3.5 with the continuity and with the Colts. because even
(04:20):
if you believe that the Ravens are going to be
better than I do, isn't it going to take some
time for that team to coalesce with a new head coach?
We'll take the Colts. I'll lay three and a half. Oh,
and by the way, in that Baltimore Indy game, Zay Flowers,
we will go over four and a half receptions. We're
going to lay three and a half with the Dallas
Cowboys over the Giants on Sunday Night Football. That New
(04:41):
York secondary is not very good. We talk often on
betting segments I've done about fading the Cowboys off, whether
it's their posted total for the season or whether it's
their week one number. I'm not doing that here. I'll
take Dallas. I'll lay the three and a half. A
couple of prop bets for this week. Kirk Cousins, the
(05:02):
Miami Dolphins are not going to hold him to fewer
than 208 and a half passing yards. We're going to
go Kirk over 208 and a half in the air
against Miami. And we've got a Colston Loveland anytime touchdown
in the tilt between the Bears and And the Carolina Panthers.
Over the last, I didn't jot down how many years,
(05:26):
but over the last 128 week one games, the under
has hit 84 times. 84 and 44 to the under.
Bengals Bucks posted total is 50 and a half. I
don't know how you don't play the under here. Cincinnati's
week one issues go back a few years. Cincinnati's defense
(05:50):
is going to be, I think, markedly better. Tampa Bay's
defensive front could present some problems. I don't think this
is a high-scoring game. I don't think it's a high-enough
scoring game to go over 50.5 points. As for the
number itself, hard stay away. I made a promise two
years ago, and the promise was I'm not betting on
the Bengals week one anymore. And I kept the promise
(06:12):
last year, thankfully, because Bengals were 5.5-point favorites on the road.
They did not cover. They won the game. They didn't cover.
They got to cover three and a half. Hard, hard,
hard stay away. Hard stay away if I was looking
at this objectively from a Bengals fan perspective. If I
ain't betting on them, I ain't betting against them. I
ain't betting this game. Stay away from the Bengals and Bucs.
(06:34):
But I do like the under. And I do think,
and I'm not going to do this myself, a Bucky
Irving anytime touchdown is a smart prop wager. Let's talk
college football. I love market overreactions. We have one in
the game between Michigan and Oklahoma. The Wolverines are getting
five and a half. Now, we all know what happened
against Western Michigan. And by the way, can I ask
(06:55):
a question really quick? So chances are, if you're watching
or listening, you believe Western Michigan won. I believe Western
Michigan won. If I was on the college football playoff
committee and I had to assess the resume of Michigan,
I would look at that game as one that Michigan lost.
But Days of outrage after that game and days of
(07:18):
justifiable outrage for the most part. But let me ask this.
Let's say Western Michigan benefited from getting an extra second
and they got to run an extra play and throw
a Hail Mary and they win. Would the outrage level
be the same as it's been with Michigan beating Western
(07:39):
Michigan because they got an extra play? Market overreaction here.
We're taking the five and a half points. We're laying
a point and a half with Texas over Ohio State.
Offensive talent all over the place. I think this is
the like big sort of emphatic Arch Manning coming out party.
I've only got to lay a point and a half
at home. Yes, Julian's saying scares me. Yes, Jeremiah Smith
(08:02):
really scares me. Yes, I'm taking the Longhorns laying just
a point and a half. I'll grab eight and a
half with Memphis over Boise State. Boise State nearly beat
Oregon this past week, but I think the Tigers can
control the game on the ground. I think Appalachian State
can push around ECU. Their offensive line is atrocious. I
get seven and a half points with App State. I'll
(08:22):
lay 22 and a half with Oregon over Oklahoma State.
91 transfers, and they lose to Tulsa. I think the
Ducks bounce back. If you can bounce back from a
game you won, lay the 22 and a half. I
will lay 56 and a half with Indiana over Howard. Now,
we got burned last week because I took 50 and
(08:43):
a half with Ball State over Ohio State. That didn't
work out. Usually these numbers are like the hardest of
all stay-aways. But in Kurt Cignetti's first two seasons against
FCS opponents, year one, they beat Indiana State 73-0. That
was last year, 73-0. Year one, they beat Western Illinois 77-3, 56-1⁄2.
(09:10):
I'll take the Hoosiers. And I will lay 35 and
a half with Lane Kiffin and LSU. Look, you may
hate Lane Kiffin. Fine. You may detest what Lane Kiffin
stands for. Fine. What you have to appreciate, though, is
how focused and locked in his team looked on Saturday
(09:30):
night after a weather delay against Clemson. Because a lot
of noise, a lot of stuff going on, and they
looked awesome. Yes, Lane goes back to Ole Miss next week.
And so maybe there's a slight, like, trap game element here.
The number is only, I say only, 35.5 points. We'll
(09:53):
lay the number with the LSU Lane Kiffins. Hey, don't forget,
if you're going to the Bengals game, or even if
you're not, not on Sunday morning, join us at the
Holy Grail for pregame sports talk. Tony Pike, Ken Brew,
and myself, 9 to 1130. We hope to see you there.
Tony and Moe Football Show, Monday, 3 to 6 on
ESPN 1530 from Twin Peaks in Westchester. Love to see
(10:15):
you there for that. Have a great weekend. Good luck.
Thank you for listening to or watching Mo Eggers. That's me,
Mo Eggers, back of the envelope bets.
Hey, what's up? I'm Mo Egger, and this is Back
of the Envelope Bets. Thank you for listening on the
iHeartRadio app or where you get your podcasts. Or if
you're watching on YouTube, thank you for watching. This is
our little betting show. When I say a little betting show,
these are not going to be 45-minute, one-hour-long, three-hour-long betting shows.
We're just talking college and pro football bets. This is
(00:21):
our fourth show we've done. We did one before week
zero of college football, kind of explained the concept. So
if you want to hear about it, go back there.
I'll just repeat this. on this show, sometimes you're going
to hear me talk about making a bet on a
team I care about. And sometimes you won't, um, because
sometimes I bet on teams I care about. And sometimes
(00:41):
I don't, uh, we did a show earlier this week
where we focused on a lot. And I mean, a
lot of NFL futures, including a lot of Bengals related
futures and props go listen to it. We also talked
about the two NFL games to start the season. We
went one in one. Uh, and so we, uh, We
missed on the Seahawks, who didn't cover. The 49ers covered easily.
(01:04):
Should have taken the money line with San Fran. One-on-one start.
We're going to start this week with NFL games and
then do college. Let's start with Detroit and New Orleans.
The Saints are a very– they're the hipster's pick to
be really good, to win the NFC South, to be
good in the NFC. And I get it, man. Like,
Tyler Shuck might be a good quarterback. They played very
well at the end of the season, but they beat
(01:25):
bad teams. And I think the hype train is moving
a little bit too quickly. I'm taking the Lions. The
Saints are the hipster pick. The Lions, to me, are
the fun pick to make the Super Bowl because if
you believe the Bengals can get there, is there a
more fun matchup than Cincinnati and Detroit? Two long-suffering Midwest cities,
(01:47):
two cold-weather cities, at least in February, with the teams
playing in Los Angeles like Zach Taylor and Dan Campbell
are BFFs. Going to get a lot of Jameer Gibbs
in this game. This number should be maybe a little
bit bigger. I'm going to lay the 6.5 points with Detroit.
I'm going to lay 7.5 with Jacksonville. Jags are the
most popular survivor pool pick week one. I've got them
(02:10):
in two survivor pools. We're going to lay 7.5 with
the Jags. I think the Jacksonville D is slept on.
This is a really tough spot for a team that's
got Deshaun Watson making his return, that's got a new
head coach, and doesn't have a lot of good established
NFL players. We're going to lay seven and a half
with the Jags. We're also going to take a Brian
(02:30):
Thomas anytime touchdown, not the 55 KRC morning host, but
the Jacksonville wide receiver. We're going to lay a point
and a half with Buffalo over Houston. The Texans are
going to be good. The Texans defense is going to
be really good. Texans defense has given Josh Allen fits,
completed just 30% of his passes against Houston two years ago,
sacked eight times last year. At some point, the reigning
(02:53):
MVP is going to have a good game against the Texans.
You talk about hype trains that I think are moving
a little bit too quickly, a little bit too fast.
I think the Texans, I am going to take a
David Montgomery anytime touchdown, but I am going to lay
the point and a half with the road team. Give
me the Bills over Houston. We already have a game
that's got possible NFL draft implications. Titans, Jets, Cam Ward.
(03:16):
Is there a recent quarterback taken number one overall who
has talked about less than Cam Ward? I will bet
on him making like a, a year to mini leap
more than I'll bet on Gino Smith doing anything. Gino
Smith is oddly washed up, although never really, really good.
I'll lay the point and a half with the Titans.
(03:37):
I'm going to lay nine and a half with the chargers.
We talked on the future show about the Cardinals and
our wager on them being the worst team in the NFL,
Jim Harbaugh, week one, six and oh, straight up. Um,
His two tackles are back. I'm bullish on the Chargers
this year. I'm going to go ahead and lay 9.5
with L.A. I'm going to take 3.5 with Indy over Baltimore.
(04:00):
We've talked on the future show about fading the Ravens
a little bit. There's just week one I'm looking for continuity.
And even though Daniel Jones is attempting to come back
and there's a lot of people who believe he's not
quite where he needs to be, I'm going to take
3.5 with the continuity and with the Colts. because even
(04:20):
if you believe that the Ravens are going to be
better than I do, isn't it going to take some
time for that team to coalesce with a new head coach?
We'll take the Colts. I'll lay three and a half. Oh,
and by the way, in that Baltimore Indy game, Zay Flowers,
we will go over four and a half receptions. We're
going to lay three and a half with the Dallas
Cowboys over the Giants on Sunday Night Football. That New
(04:41):
York secondary is not very good. We talk often on
betting segments I've done about fading the Cowboys off, whether
it's their posted total for the season or whether it's
their week one number. I'm not doing that here. I'll
take Dallas. I'll lay the three and a half. A
couple of prop bets for this week. Kirk Cousins, the
(05:02):
Miami Dolphins are not going to hold him to fewer
than 208 and a half passing yards. We're going to
go Kirk over 208 and a half in the air
against Miami. And we've got a Colston Loveland anytime touchdown
in the tilt between the Bears and And the Carolina Panthers.
Over the last, I didn't jot down how many years,
(05:26):
but over the last 128 week one games, the under
has hit 84 times. 84 and 44 to the under.
Bengals Bucks posted total is 50 and a half. I
don't know how you don't play the under here. Cincinnati's
week one issues go back a few years. Cincinnati's defense
(05:50):
is going to be, I think, markedly better. Tampa Bay's
defensive front could present some problems. I don't think this
is a high-scoring game. I don't think it's a high-enough
scoring game to go over 50.5 points. As for the
number itself, hard stay away. I made a promise two
years ago, and the promise was I'm not betting on
the Bengals week one anymore. And I kept the promise
(06:12):
last year, thankfully, because Bengals were 5.5-point favorites on the road.
They did not cover. They won the game. They didn't cover.
They got to cover three and a half. Hard, hard,
hard stay away. Hard stay away if I was looking
at this objectively from a Bengals fan perspective. If I
ain't betting on them, I ain't betting against them. I
ain't betting this game. Stay away from the Bengals and Bucs.
(06:34):
But I do like the under. And I do think,
and I'm not going to do this myself, a Bucky
Irving anytime touchdown is a smart prop wager. Let's talk
college football. I love market overreactions. We have one in
the game between Michigan and Oklahoma. The Wolverines are getting
five and a half. Now, we all know what happened
against Western Michigan. And by the way, can I ask
(06:55):
a question really quick? So chances are, if you're watching
or listening, you believe Western Michigan won. I believe Western
Michigan won. If I was on the college football playoff
committee and I had to assess the resume of Michigan,
I would look at that game as one that Michigan lost.
But Days of outrage after that game and days of
(07:18):
justifiable outrage for the most part. But let me ask this.
Let's say Western Michigan benefited from getting an extra second
and they got to run an extra play and throw
a Hail Mary and they win. Would the outrage level
be the same as it's been with Michigan beating Western
(07:39):
Michigan because they got an extra play? Market overreaction here.
We're taking the five and a half points. We're laying
a point and a half with Texas over Ohio State.
Offensive talent all over the place. I think this is
the like big sort of emphatic Arch Manning coming out party.
I've only got to lay a point and a half
at home. Yes, Julian's saying scares me. Yes, Jeremiah Smith
(08:02):
really scares me. Yes, I'm taking the Longhorns laying just
a point and a half. I'll grab eight and a
half with Memphis over Boise State. Boise State nearly beat
Oregon this past week, but I think the Tigers can
control the game on the ground. I think Appalachian State
can push around ECU. Their offensive line is atrocious. I
get seven and a half points with App State. I'll
(08:22):
lay 22 and a half with Oregon over Oklahoma State.
91 transfers, and they lose to Tulsa. I think the
Ducks bounce back. If you can bounce back from a
game you won, lay the 22 and a half. I
will lay 56 and a half with Indiana over Howard. Now,
we got burned last week because I took 50 and
(08:43):
a half with Ball State over Ohio State. That didn't
work out. Usually these numbers are like the hardest of
all stay-aways. But in Kurt Cignetti's first two seasons against
FCS opponents, year one, they beat Indiana State 73-0. That
was last year, 73-0. Year one, they beat Western Illinois 77-3, 56-1⁄2.
(09:10):
I'll take the Hoosiers. And I will lay 35 and
a half with Lane Kiffin and LSU. Look, you may
hate Lane Kiffin. Fine. You may detest what Lane Kiffin
stands for. Fine. What you have to appreciate, though, is
how focused and locked in his team looked on Saturday
(09:30):
night after a weather delay against Clemson. Because a lot
of noise, a lot of stuff going on, and they
looked awesome. Yes, Lane goes back to Ole Miss next week.
And so maybe there's a slight, like, trap game element here.
The number is only, I say only, 35.5 points. We'll
(09:53):
lay the number with the LSU Lane Kiffins. Hey, don't forget,
if you're going to the Bengals game, or even if
you're not, not on Sunday morning, join us at the
Holy Grail for pregame sports talk. Tony Pike, Ken Brew,
and myself, 9 to 1130. We hope to see you there.
Tony and Moe Football Show, Monday, 3 to 6 on
ESPN 1530 from Twin Peaks in Westchester. Love to see
(10:15):
you there for that. Have a great weekend. Good luck.
Thank you for listening to or watching Mo Eggers. That's me,
Mo Eggers, back of the envelope bets.
Mo Egger News
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