March 10, 2026 • 13 mins
Dr. Steven Nolt and Dr. Kyle Kopko’s research examines how—and how much—the Amish community in Lancaster County participates in U.S. elections.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Now back to the RJ.
Speaker 2 (00:02):
Harris Show on WHP five eighty six, twenty four to
go on till eight o'clock.
Speaker 1 (00:08):
This is the RJ. Harris Breakfast Show. And I mentioned
earlier that we're going to have two guests after the
seven to thirty news and they are doctor Stephen M.
Nolt and Kyle Kopko, who did a report some research
on measuring the Amish vote in Lancaster County for twenty
(00:29):
twenty four. It was mentioned by quite a few, including
some media sources, that President Trump really won of Pennsylvania
and Lancaster County because of the Amish vote, And doctor Nolt,
is that pretty much what really inspired you to do
your research?
Speaker 3 (00:51):
Yes, in a sense, we actually had been tracking Amish
political participation in voting for some time, for some years,
and in fact, doctor Copco had started some of this
research way back when he was an undergraduate student back
in two thousand and four, so it is something that
we've had an interest in for some time. But yes,
the media stories in summer and fall of twenty twenty
(01:15):
four did prompt us to look at that election after
the fact to kind of see what was actually going
on under the service.
Speaker 1 (01:26):
So how many years have you actually been tracking the
Amish vote? And is it only Lancaster County.
Speaker 3 (01:35):
So we have looked carefully at twenty sixteen, twenty twenty,
and twenty twenty four, and for some of those years
we have also looked at some other counties in Pennsylvania
and some other Amish communities in other states. So right now,
for twenty twenty four, the results that we have are
just for Lancaster County, but we are continuing work on
(01:58):
twenty twenty four results in some other locations, but we
don't have those those results yet for twenty twenty four.
Speaker 1 (02:04):
But the report that you and doctor Copco published in
the Journal of Playing, is it Ada Baptist Communities that
was based on Lancaster communities? That was that was on
Lancaster County? Is that correct? That that's correct? Yes, okay,
and doctor cop Cooked morning, Good morning, r J. How
(02:26):
are you? I'm well? How about you? See long time though?
See last time I saw you you were thirteen?
Speaker 4 (02:32):
Maybe do you think that might be rightly?
Speaker 1 (02:35):
A little known fact. When I first got back to
Harrisburg at the end of eighty nine, I spent every
Friday night with Rick Copco, your father who was a
detective for Hampton Township at.
Speaker 4 (02:50):
The time, longtime policeman more than thirty years.
Speaker 1 (02:52):
Fine guy, Fine guy. So, so you know, I was
talking to doctor Nolt about what really prompt did you
folks to do this research right from the get go?
And I note that you've been following it over this
research over a number of years. Let's talk about this
(03:13):
presidential election and the last. Was there a change in
the Amish community between the two in terms of turnout,
the amount of people who vote and how many are registered.
Speaker 4 (03:25):
Sure, we saw a pretty steady level of voter turnout
between the twenty four and twenty elections. The biggest spike
that we observed over time really was in the two
thousand and four election that was categorically different. But what
we're seeing now, we think is this consistent turnout among
some Amish, which I think you can even say started
(03:48):
back in twenty sixteen. There were some efforts, particularly by
an outside party Amish pack, to start to mobilize Amish
voters during that election. It didn't pan out the way
that they had hoped, But then in twenty twenty and
twenty twenty four we've seen this consistent turnout a member
among members of the Amish community. I think the big
(04:08):
question is what does this mean going forward? Doctor may
have alluded to this already, but you know, the Amish
population grows pretty quickly, particularly in the Langster settlement. They
double in size every generation about every twenty years. Wow,
So what happens if you have a critical mass of
voters and the population keeps increasing it that size over time?
(04:29):
Now we're talking still about a pretty small number of
folks voting overall. We're looking at in terms of the
turnout as the percentage of all eligible Amish individuals only
eighteen percent fourteen percent in twenty twenty four. So it's
still relatively of the county total, correct within the within
(04:53):
the the Amish, within the Lankster County settlement itself. So
even though that's a small percent, what happens as the
raw numbers continue to grow within the community. Now, it's
not going to be enough really to say swing a
presidential election less we had like Florida, like two thousand
situation where you know, five hundred and thirty seven votes
(05:14):
decided that election. But it could matter in a tight race.
It could matter in the local.
Speaker 1 (05:18):
Election well, and doctor Nol correct me if I'm wrong.
These Medior reports were easy to debunk right off the
bat because there's a relatively small amount of Amish voters
and Trump won by what one hundred and twenty thousand
plus popular vote, right.
Speaker 3 (05:41):
Right, So the number of eligible Amish voters in Lancaster
County was in twenty twenty four was about seventeen thousand,
five hundred, Okay, so the Amish population is large. It's
also quite young, so like about half the population is
under age eighteen, which again this is part of part
of the rapid growth that Kyle alluded to, but it
(06:03):
also means at any given time, you know, at least
half the population are not eligible voters because they're not eighteen.
So they were about seventeen thousand, five hundred eligible Amish
voters in Leancaester County in twenty twenty four, and about
a quarter of those were registered to vote, And then
there was a voter turnout of among those Amish voters
of fifty eight percent. So there were about two thousand,
(06:26):
five hundred Amish people who voted in twenty twenty four,
so again not an insignificant number. Every vote counts, but
some of the claims early on that you know, there
were going to be eighty thousand Amish voters. Some of
the numbers were really not plausible.
Speaker 1 (06:41):
It's interesting to note all this though. I'll tell you
what I haven't told either of you is that I
have Amish friends, and I've been somewhat involved. I've been
to some rallies with them where it's been all Amish
except for me and you know, maybe the candidate. But
one of the things that I have noted is that
(07:03):
they were very, very active, and they were really going
out to uh, you know, recruit even more because some
Amish believe they shouldn't vote and that you know, that
that's not their job to vote, and so that's what
they're they're running against. Have you found that with recruitment
that that it's difficult for them?
Speaker 4 (07:26):
I think you hit on something really interesting. There's this
this kind of two camps within the Amish community right now,
and it really dates back to their theological worldview, the
two kingdom theology, if you will. Some younger Amish are
really active the entrepreneurial business owners within the Amish community,
some of them, believe it or not, there's a handful
(07:47):
that have contract lobbyists right now, Yeah, very interesting development
within the Langster Settlement. So there is a new generation
of Amish, it seems, we don't know how large it is,
that are pretty politically active, and even if they're not voting,
they're engaging with government to advance their business interests, dealing
with regulations, any sort of policies that may affect their
(08:09):
way of life. We maybe didn't see that twenty thirty
forty years ago as being a really common phenomenon, and
I think it's probably something that's distinctive to the Lancaster Settlement,
just because a large number of Amish interact with non Amish,
unlike many other more agrarian settlements across the United States
where they are really more isolated. So I think this
(08:30):
gets at the larger question where's the settlement heading? Are
they being more active politically?
Speaker 1 (08:36):
We need to take a break and then we'll come
back and finish this down. We'll only have a few minutes.
But by the way, one of my claims to fame
is I got doctor Ross to come to Aaron Esh's
family picnic, so he was there campaigning. It is seven
forty five at wealth Fan Health. We've always believed in
putting you first.
Speaker 4 (08:55):
When that personalization happens, you are getting better care like
they taken care somebody from their family.
Speaker 2 (09:01):
What we telling you HP five eighty clear thinking, strong voices.
Speaker 1 (09:07):
Quickly, So we only have a few minutes. I'm on
the year with doctor Stephen Nolton, doctor Kyle Kopco, and
we're talking about the Amish voting uh and what is
reality given that some media reports had them swinging the
election for Trump, which is not true because they're not
that sizable. But doctor Nold, doctor Copco said something about
(09:31):
this is dramatically different than four. What was the deal
in O four?
Speaker 3 (09:37):
Well, actually, I'm not sure if it's dramatically different than four.
What happened in two thousand and four was that the
Amish voter participation was dramatically different than what it had
been before two thousand and four. So two thousand and
four is really when we saw the first real sharp
increase in Amish voting participation and number of number of
(09:59):
issues there won. One was that two thousand and four
Pennsylvania was a focus of campaigning. After four years after
the very close two thousand election, Pennsylvania was regarded as
a swing state and so a lot of emphasis put
on Pennsylvania. George W. Bush campaigned here frequently, I believe,
visited Pennsylvania more often than any state other than his
(10:21):
home state of Texas. And there was also a sort
of ground game, get out the vote, door to door
sort of effort in Lancaster County among Amish voters in
two thousand and four by someone who was who had
been raised in the Amish community, was not Amish, but
(10:41):
was able to appeal in the Pennsylvania Dutch language in
terms of his individual interactions. So two thousand and four
was the first time that we saw a pretty sharp,
a sharp upswing in engagement.
Speaker 1 (10:55):
Well, I am Seed the Bush rally at the airport
in two thousand and four, and as I was getting
ready to MC there was a big tent out back backstage,
if you will, and I was told it was for
the Amish that they wanted to meet privately with him.
So exactly what you're saying happened back then, exactly.
Speaker 4 (11:17):
There was some reports out of Lancaster County of multiple
private meetings with the president at the time, even one
anecdote where a farmer came out of the field to
meet the president and gave him a straw hat, and
that seemed to just create this life of its own
as mythology within the Amish community. It spread like wildfire,
and that's where the title of our first article, bush fever,
(11:39):
came from. The Amish said it was a bush fever
if you will among members of the community.
Speaker 1 (11:43):
Where can people find your articles? I imagine they're online
readily available, right.
Speaker 4 (11:49):
Sure if you just google my name, Steve no Olt's name,
or doctor Don Crabild. Also, I have a number of
links on my website for Kylecopco dot com. More than
welcome to check it out.
Speaker 1 (12:01):
And Copco is kop Ko kop Ko. Okay. So where
do we go from here, doctor Noult. What's in the
future for this research.
Speaker 3 (12:15):
Well, we're continuing to look at results from two thousand
and four in some other Amish communities in Pennsylvania and
in some other states, and then we'll be keeping our
keeping our eyes out for twenty twenty eight. Certainly twenty
twenty six is important, although this is the research is
(12:36):
a fairly time consuming and tedious process. And so whether
we're able to do that do it for kind of
every election, or whether we'll focus on the every four
year presidential election still remains to be seen, but we're
we're going to be continuing to dig into the twenty
twenty four research and look ahead to twenty twenty eight.
Speaker 1 (12:55):
Well, if you need a casual setting, I'll make sure
that Aaron Nash extends a h an invitation to stop
by his picnic, because I got to tell you there,
it's it's it's big, it's big. There are a lot
of people there. So Uh, Doctor Stephen M. Nolt, Doctor
Kyle C. Copco, thank you so much for being here
and sharing this. Uh. And doctor Nolt, is there any
(13:18):
website that you wanted to mention over the music? As
we close?
Speaker 3 (13:23):
You could google my name and the Young Center yo
U n G the Young Center for Anabaptist and Pietists
that
Now back to the RJ.
Speaker 2 (00:02):
Harris Show on WHP five eighty six, twenty four to
go on till eight o'clock.
Speaker 1 (00:08):
This is the RJ. Harris Breakfast Show. And I mentioned
earlier that we're going to have two guests after the
seven to thirty news and they are doctor Stephen M.
Nolt and Kyle Kopko, who did a report some research
on measuring the Amish vote in Lancaster County for twenty
(00:29):
twenty four. It was mentioned by quite a few, including
some media sources, that President Trump really won of Pennsylvania
and Lancaster County because of the Amish vote, And doctor Nolt,
is that pretty much what really inspired you to do
your research?
Speaker 3 (00:51):
Yes, in a sense, we actually had been tracking Amish
political participation in voting for some time, for some years,
and in fact, doctor Copco had started some of this
research way back when he was an undergraduate student back
in two thousand and four, so it is something that
we've had an interest in for some time. But yes,
the media stories in summer and fall of twenty twenty
(01:15):
four did prompt us to look at that election after
the fact to kind of see what was actually going
on under the service.
Speaker 1 (01:26):
So how many years have you actually been tracking the
Amish vote? And is it only Lancaster County.
Speaker 3 (01:35):
So we have looked carefully at twenty sixteen, twenty twenty,
and twenty twenty four, and for some of those years
we have also looked at some other counties in Pennsylvania
and some other Amish communities in other states. So right now,
for twenty twenty four, the results that we have are
just for Lancaster County, but we are continuing work on
(01:58):
twenty twenty four results in some other locations, but we
don't have those those results yet for twenty twenty four.
Speaker 1 (02:04):
But the report that you and doctor Copco published in
the Journal of Playing, is it Ada Baptist Communities that
was based on Lancaster communities? That was that was on
Lancaster County? Is that correct? That that's correct? Yes, okay,
and doctor cop Cooked morning, Good morning, r J. How
(02:26):
are you? I'm well? How about you? See long time though?
See last time I saw you you were thirteen?
Speaker 4 (02:32):
Maybe do you think that might be rightly?
Speaker 1 (02:35):
A little known fact. When I first got back to
Harrisburg at the end of eighty nine, I spent every
Friday night with Rick Copco, your father who was a
detective for Hampton Township at.
Speaker 4 (02:50):
The time, longtime policeman more than thirty years.
Speaker 1 (02:52):
Fine guy, Fine guy. So, so you know, I was
talking to doctor Nolt about what really prompt did you
folks to do this research right from the get go?
And I note that you've been following it over this
research over a number of years. Let's talk about this
(03:13):
presidential election and the last. Was there a change in
the Amish community between the two in terms of turnout,
the amount of people who vote and how many are registered.
Speaker 4 (03:25):
Sure, we saw a pretty steady level of voter turnout
between the twenty four and twenty elections. The biggest spike
that we observed over time really was in the two
thousand and four election that was categorically different. But what
we're seeing now, we think is this consistent turnout among
some Amish, which I think you can even say started
(03:48):
back in twenty sixteen. There were some efforts, particularly by
an outside party Amish pack, to start to mobilize Amish
voters during that election. It didn't pan out the way
that they had hoped, But then in twenty twenty and
twenty twenty four we've seen this consistent turnout a member
among members of the Amish community. I think the big
(04:08):
question is what does this mean going forward? Doctor may
have alluded to this already, but you know, the Amish
population grows pretty quickly, particularly in the Langster settlement. They
double in size every generation about every twenty years. Wow,
So what happens if you have a critical mass of
voters and the population keeps increasing it that size over time?
(04:29):
Now we're talking still about a pretty small number of
folks voting overall. We're looking at in terms of the
turnout as the percentage of all eligible Amish individuals only
eighteen percent fourteen percent in twenty twenty four. So it's
still relatively of the county total, correct within the within
(04:53):
the the Amish, within the Lankster County settlement itself. So
even though that's a small percent, what happens as the
raw numbers continue to grow within the community. Now, it's
not going to be enough really to say swing a
presidential election less we had like Florida, like two thousand
situation where you know, five hundred and thirty seven votes
(05:14):
decided that election. But it could matter in a tight race.
It could matter in the local.
Speaker 1 (05:18):
Election well, and doctor Nol correct me if I'm wrong.
These Medior reports were easy to debunk right off the
bat because there's a relatively small amount of Amish voters
and Trump won by what one hundred and twenty thousand
plus popular vote, right.
Speaker 3 (05:41):
Right, So the number of eligible Amish voters in Lancaster
County was in twenty twenty four was about seventeen thousand,
five hundred, Okay, so the Amish population is large. It's
also quite young, so like about half the population is
under age eighteen, which again this is part of part
of the rapid growth that Kyle alluded to, but it
(06:03):
also means at any given time, you know, at least
half the population are not eligible voters because they're not eighteen.
So they were about seventeen thousand, five hundred eligible Amish
voters in Leancaester County in twenty twenty four, and about
a quarter of those were registered to vote, And then
there was a voter turnout of among those Amish voters
of fifty eight percent. So there were about two thousand,
(06:26):
five hundred Amish people who voted in twenty twenty four,
so again not an insignificant number. Every vote counts, but
some of the claims early on that you know, there
were going to be eighty thousand Amish voters. Some of
the numbers were really not plausible.
Speaker 1 (06:41):
It's interesting to note all this though. I'll tell you
what I haven't told either of you is that I
have Amish friends, and I've been somewhat involved. I've been
to some rallies with them where it's been all Amish
except for me and you know, maybe the candidate. But
one of the things that I have noted is that
(07:03):
they were very, very active, and they were really going
out to uh, you know, recruit even more because some
Amish believe they shouldn't vote and that you know, that
that's not their job to vote, and so that's what
they're they're running against. Have you found that with recruitment
that that it's difficult for them?
Speaker 4 (07:26):
I think you hit on something really interesting. There's this
this kind of two camps within the Amish community right now,
and it really dates back to their theological worldview, the
two kingdom theology, if you will. Some younger Amish are
really active the entrepreneurial business owners within the Amish community,
some of them, believe it or not, there's a handful
(07:47):
that have contract lobbyists right now, Yeah, very interesting development
within the Langster Settlement. So there is a new generation
of Amish, it seems, we don't know how large it is,
that are pretty politically active, and even if they're not voting,
they're engaging with government to advance their business interests, dealing
with regulations, any sort of policies that may affect their
(08:09):
way of life. We maybe didn't see that twenty thirty
forty years ago as being a really common phenomenon, and
I think it's probably something that's distinctive to the Lancaster Settlement,
just because a large number of Amish interact with non Amish,
unlike many other more agrarian settlements across the United States
where they are really more isolated. So I think this
(08:30):
gets at the larger question where's the settlement heading? Are
they being more active politically?
Speaker 1 (08:36):
We need to take a break and then we'll come
back and finish this down. We'll only have a few minutes.
But by the way, one of my claims to fame
is I got doctor Ross to come to Aaron Esh's
family picnic, so he was there campaigning. It is seven
forty five at wealth Fan Health. We've always believed in
putting you first.
Speaker 4 (08:55):
When that personalization happens, you are getting better care like
they taken care somebody from their family.
Speaker 2 (09:01):
What we telling you HP five eighty clear thinking, strong voices.
Speaker 1 (09:07):
Quickly, So we only have a few minutes. I'm on
the year with doctor Stephen Nolton, doctor Kyle Kopco, and
we're talking about the Amish voting uh and what is
reality given that some media reports had them swinging the
election for Trump, which is not true because they're not
that sizable. But doctor Nold, doctor Copco said something about
(09:31):
this is dramatically different than four. What was the deal
in O four?
Speaker 3 (09:37):
Well, actually, I'm not sure if it's dramatically different than four.
What happened in two thousand and four was that the
Amish voter participation was dramatically different than what it had
been before two thousand and four. So two thousand and
four is really when we saw the first real sharp
increase in Amish voting participation and number of number of
(09:59):
issues there won. One was that two thousand and four
Pennsylvania was a focus of campaigning. After four years after
the very close two thousand election, Pennsylvania was regarded as
a swing state and so a lot of emphasis put
on Pennsylvania. George W. Bush campaigned here frequently, I believe,
visited Pennsylvania more often than any state other than his
(10:21):
home state of Texas. And there was also a sort
of ground game, get out the vote, door to door
sort of effort in Lancaster County among Amish voters in
two thousand and four by someone who was who had
been raised in the Amish community, was not Amish, but
(10:41):
was able to appeal in the Pennsylvania Dutch language in
terms of his individual interactions. So two thousand and four
was the first time that we saw a pretty sharp,
a sharp upswing in engagement.
Speaker 1 (10:55):
Well, I am Seed the Bush rally at the airport
in two thousand and four, and as I was getting
ready to MC there was a big tent out back backstage,
if you will, and I was told it was for
the Amish that they wanted to meet privately with him.
So exactly what you're saying happened back then, exactly.
Speaker 4 (11:17):
There was some reports out of Lancaster County of multiple
private meetings with the president at the time, even one
anecdote where a farmer came out of the field to
meet the president and gave him a straw hat, and
that seemed to just create this life of its own
as mythology within the Amish community. It spread like wildfire,
and that's where the title of our first article, bush fever,
(11:39):
came from. The Amish said it was a bush fever
if you will among members of the community.
Speaker 1 (11:43):
Where can people find your articles? I imagine they're online
readily available, right.
Speaker 4 (11:49):
Sure if you just google my name, Steve no Olt's name,
or doctor Don Crabild. Also, I have a number of
links on my website for Kylecopco dot com. More than
welcome to check it out.
Speaker 1 (12:01):
And Copco is kop Ko kop Ko. Okay. So where
do we go from here, doctor Noult. What's in the
future for this research.
Speaker 3 (12:15):
Well, we're continuing to look at results from two thousand
and four in some other Amish communities in Pennsylvania and
in some other states, and then we'll be keeping our
keeping our eyes out for twenty twenty eight. Certainly twenty
twenty six is important, although this is the research is
(12:36):
a fairly time consuming and tedious process. And so whether
we're able to do that do it for kind of
every election, or whether we'll focus on the every four
year presidential election still remains to be seen, but we're
we're going to be continuing to dig into the twenty
twenty four research and look ahead to twenty twenty eight.
Speaker 1 (12:55):
Well, if you need a casual setting, I'll make sure
that Aaron Nash extends a h an invitation to stop
by his picnic, because I got to tell you there,
it's it's it's big, it's big. There are a lot
of people there. So Uh, Doctor Stephen M. Nolt, Doctor
Kyle C. Copco, thank you so much for being here
and sharing this. Uh. And doctor Nolt, is there any
(13:18):
website that you wanted to mention over the music? As
we close?
Speaker 3 (13:23):
You could google my name and the Young Center yo
U n G the Young Center for Anabaptist and Pietists
that
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