Thunderdome by Rock the Capital 2.28.26

Eric Epstein and Millennial Brian talk about Iran.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
All right, Well it's Saturday husite because we're in the
Studio America. Kep's done with Brian and Millennial Brian that is,
and we have art producing us. So it is unbelievably
beautiful given what we've been through. So I would assume
that's a signal of the end time.

Speaker 2 (00:18):
Well, yeah, I mean apparently there's possibly there's going to
snow again on Monday, which is just like it just
hits us, you know, you figure out of it. You
think it's overything, is that perfect weather where it's not
too hot, not too cold, and it just brings you back.

Speaker 1 (00:33):
In no insects. Sometimes the crow has come up too early.
But we are Rock to Capital. We're a non partisan,
nonprofit organization that fights corruption and advocates for good government.
We were established in July two thousand and five. Please
go to our website. We have something new on there
on a regular basis. The show is Thunderdome And as

(00:56):
you know, we don't take signs, we take aim. We
don't care who you are in terms of party, we
care who's throwing the party. So Jess, I'm just gonna
kind of go off the wing at the beginning here. Yeah,
I guess you weren't listening to there's a new product
from Wendy's Thin Mints.

Speaker 2 (01:12):
Thin Mints is trying to get I guess what the
Girl Scout cookie.

Speaker 1 (01:15):
But that's what's interesting. It's called thin Min's Frosty and
it says, like the Girl Scouts, it won't cookies, it
won't be around for a long time. I mean to
me that she's blatant co copyright infringement. Who's been On
the other hand, I mean, I think, and I know
what the polls say without a doubt that type of
Girl Scout cookies number one.

Speaker 2 (01:36):
Yeah, and and Girl Scouts have recognizable brand. They might
do something where they give a portion of the sales
to the Girl Scouts. I think the big thing is
not only have they lost to McDonald's and Burner Kine,
but now you have other I would say third kind
of third level. That's who places Popeyes, Chick fil A
that have come up and just taking their place. You know, Wendy's.
They're shutting down seven hundred locations. It's just basic market

(01:59):
actually were they don't They can't compete with the big
brands of McDonalds are burking and then kind of the
upstarts like the chicken places, Popeyes and Chicken fil A
are just just a better product.

Speaker 1 (02:08):
Well, look, the two attributes fast food had that made
them attractors that they were fast and they were cheap. Yeah,
now you know, the people hanging out the food can't
do math, and when they do the math, you know,
you need a credit card to pay for fast food.

Speaker 2 (02:24):
Yeah, it got it got way more expensive, you know,
you know, there's been tons of studies on this, but essentially,
you know a family, you know, they call it fast
food inflation. You know, family four, their order would be
has gone from like ten dollars up to like twenty
five thirty dollars, which is just a big, a big increase.
I think the problem for Wendy's though, is they had
like a frosty and an ice cream instead of like

(02:47):
different draws, and that's kind of just gone away. Whereas
you know, either McDonalds or burn can have their own
or you have Chick fil A and Popey's and the
chicken sandwiches.

Speaker 1 (02:56):
Can you get that at cheets to frosty.

Speaker 2 (02:58):
Or that's true? And you have the convenienced gas stations now,
which are just easier and they're cheap. You know, if
you wanted cheap stuff, you know you have sheets, you have.

Speaker 1 (03:05):
Yeah, but I mean if you look at how the
gas station has evolved. You know, I'm young enough to
remember when a guy would come and pump your gas,
ask you if you wanted your water an oil checked,
and without asking, you would clean the windshield. I mean,
it's that's I don't know art were you old enough
to have that kind of service? Oh? Yeah, yeah, I

(03:25):
mean and then when you went in there and look,
people don't want everybody had the same experience. Gas was intoxicating,
it smelled great. Oh yeah, I'm just telling you to
ask people, you know, what do you want to eat
off a gas sandwich? And part of what so you
could smell that it was around. I get it. But
you know, boy, gas stations, what's next? What more could

(03:49):
they expand?

Speaker 2 (03:50):
Well, I think we're seeing the things that is alcohol,
is gaming, that's an almost ever inconvenience store, even you know, restaurants,
they're all trying to get gaming licenses. They're all trying
to get alcohol licenses. So that's where it's going. And
then you know, we're just it's just different places where
you can kind of sit down and eat or have
a quick bite or something quick.

Speaker 1 (04:09):
For McDonald's. In the old days, they were known. They
never had a phone booth, the bathrooms were small, so
they were sending off the signal they did not want
people to hang out. And today it strikes me as
people want to hang out.

Speaker 2 (04:22):
Yeah. Well, for some of the businesses, it's their whole
business model is based on people hanging out. I would
say Panera is a perfect example of they want people
to stay. They want people to have their coffee there
and do work there, and they can charge much higher
prices than everyone. They make it kind of like a
more i would say, higher level experience.

Speaker 1 (04:40):
Yeah, but they're kind of like all the other restaurants
from that genre. You know, you could have a nice
hot turkey, not a hot turkey, but a turkey sandwich
on Tuesday, you come back on Wednesday and it's still there.
So look, let me hit real quickly something before we
get into Iran. Pennsylvania is one of the few states

(05:00):
that doesn't have a False Claims Act, and in False
Claims Act, whistleblowers can report fraud and abuse and get
a percent or the settlement. There's like twenty nine states
that already have that. In the most recent fiscal year,
these cases false claims recovered six point eight billion in

(05:23):
settlements and judgments and that and that, And we're talking
from the federal perspective, all right, So more than three
quarters of that comes from cases initiated by whistle blowers.
So there's twenty nine states that don't have it. And
this is like the All Star team. Yeah, I can
believe they don't California, Florida, New York, and Texas.

Speaker 2 (05:44):
So Pennsylvania's the largest state without ones. Those states have it.
We're the largest stay without one. And if you just
think about Philadelphia alone, the type of whistle broker place
that year that might.

Speaker 1 (05:56):
Like that actually has its own I think they have
their own.

Speaker 2 (06:00):
Legislation an Alligator County, yes, but I think you know,
if you want to incentivize good government, good behavior, and
you want to have people as advice to come forward,
obviously you have to verify their claims because people be
coming forward with anything and everything. But you know, if
you want to take down corruption, you have to have
kind of a political neutral policy that goes after both

(06:23):
parties and protection for the people that come out because
there's always going to try and be retribution. I mean,
one of the things they do so well is the
retribution is a lot of times better than the reward
or tougher than the rewards. So people are scared to
come out, whether it's inside the Congress, whether it's other groups.

Speaker 1 (06:38):
I mean, when I've worked with some blogers, I really
encourage them to think twice, because your career is going
to be over and you're likely to be harassed. But
when you have this all star team of California in
New York, which about as blue as you can get
in Florida, and the red star state Texas, yea, and
those are very very large economy. So the question is, Brian,

(06:59):
why do we not have one?

Speaker 2 (07:00):
Well, I think we know why we don't have one
is that, you know Pennsylvania not only is it corrupt,
but you don't even put the bridge after you do
the corruption, they say, you know, you want to keep
everything below board. You never want to take anything to
public or knowledge. They want the creditor reform we talked
about Shapiro, with this still come. They'll say, I want
perform with the legislative at a thing. I want this reform.

(07:21):
But then when it comes time to do it or
push it. He's like, well, that's not my job. I
can't do it. So there's there's talking reform, but there's
no actual reform.

Speaker 1 (07:29):
Well, so let me ask you this, and this is
a conundrum. Everybody claims to be a reformer, and if
you had one hundred percent of the politicians, they would say,
I support reform, I support open right transparency. So the
words have meant nothing. Now, the other argument is that
that people have it will sentivise people to make false claims.

Speaker 2 (07:50):
Which that's true, and you have to verify these claims.
You have to verify these claims. You have to go
through the legal process. But the reason why we have
a legal process that's so rigorous we're innocent and to
proven guilty is because you know you you don't want
people to just come over and over with these false claims,
and and you have if you want, if you're really
worried about false claims, is a reverse suit law where

(08:11):
if someone does make something up, you can sue them
for damages, lawyer fees, time and time incurred dealing with this.
So that's that way I would stop.

Speaker 1 (08:22):
I get that, But you go back to one of
the things you've advocated for years. Is that you're look
at Florida and you're looking about a Medicare fraud. Yeah,
but it's in the billions.

Speaker 2 (08:31):
Yeah, I mean.

Speaker 1 (08:33):
So we need to help people if we're not going
to investigate it uncover uh the abuse. Now, those really
didn't address that at all. I was surprised.

Speaker 2 (08:43):
Yeah, I'm shocked they stayed away from healthcare. I thought
the healthcare and would be the biggest one they went after.
And military. Those are the two of just we're talking
about fraud. We're talking about just whying. So saying you're
giving ten thousand MRIs or giving a thousand you know,
saying you're doing all these procedures, taking a normal reimbursement
for let's say, let's say a broken leg, and saying

(09:05):
it's actually a full body cast. So we're talking very
basic fraud. For private health care companies, they basically do
their due diligence, They call up, they check because they
have to pay out with their own money. The government
just gives the money and then well, unless there's a problem,
unless there's a fraud alert, they don't even check it out.

Speaker 1 (09:22):
It's an invitation of fraud. Well go to me, and
all COEs with this. Again, this is another brilliant idea
that won't be adapted. When you find, you know, fraud
in excess of a certain number, I think you bring
the CEO in and if he doesn't ad it, give
them two choices. Yeah, you can drink one of two drinks.
One that all looks delicious but it's really anthrax, okay,

(09:42):
and the other is your So yeah, I think it
would be a disincentive.

Speaker 2 (09:46):
So yeah, it would be a great this setive. Listen,
you need punishments for this stuff, obviously, that's but I
think you're right. I think if you had, if you
if you just brought in better fraud present prevention for
Medicare and medicaid you're talking about, I believe, two hundred
and fifty billion dollars every year, and that's something that everyone wants,
you know, because they want to get.

Speaker 1 (10:03):
Rid of it. No, Look, your idea has been a gem.
Two hundred and fifty billion billion a year, and look,
we can do it. And you know, in my mind,
if you look, unfortunately, we couldruple or whatever we did
to the military. So they're usually we're not going to
be looking at that. But and I'll end on this
the original false claims act art or Brian who was

(10:27):
the president who had the first one? The first one
false claims act?

Speaker 2 (10:35):
Was it Nixon?

Speaker 1 (10:36):
Abraham Lincoln? Wow, Abraham Lincoln because of Civil War abuse
from the munitions makers.

Speaker 2 (10:44):
Yeah, that's that's that's the persons. You even talked about
this during I believe were one World War two where
we had our own commission on military too World War two.

Speaker 1 (10:52):
Yeah, yeah, yeah, it went away so that it was
Harry Truman and they got rid of them by nominating
them for Vice president Eric EPs I did with Millennial
Brian Art Selby's producing We're Rock to Capital, the show's
thunder Dome Art. Sorry for going over there. So we're
back and just again every once in a while, like
to riff on the commercials Ethos, which.

Speaker 2 (11:15):
Is it said healthcare for dead spouses surviving spouse.

Speaker 1 (11:22):
I mean, if you're going to expand, wouldn't you expand
into also booking air pine fights, booking airplants because in
the event it went down, you'd have the life. All right, Okay,
that's a little too dark.

Speaker 2 (11:35):
This is this is some of your ideas. This goes
this goes along with marsh Madis with a spike pall
that I'm sticking to.

Speaker 1 (11:43):
Let's see, But yeah, sorry about that kind. I was
just and I was thinking about the one on telecommunications
there where they're uh, but they were celebrating Jackson and
who else do you remember? It was two two guys
that are.

Speaker 2 (11:59):
President Jackson and Roosevelt.

Speaker 1 (12:04):
But Jackson, I think is on the twenty dollars bill,
and they were saying that, you know, Franklin wasn't even
a president.

Speaker 2 (12:12):
Yeah, but you got us got the hundred dollar bill,
and he's the He's the guy who went to France
to help to give us the help turn the revolutionary.

Speaker 1 (12:19):
He was brilliant. Franklin essentially bankrupt France as he was
having sex all through Paris and.

Speaker 2 (12:27):
Got them to help us and then helps us win
the war and then helped set up a lot of
the you know, early functions.

Speaker 1 (12:34):
Well, I mean, I don't know what the criteria is
for me on the face of a bill. I can't
believe that Trump's face isn't on all the bills.

Speaker 2 (12:42):
But I think I think Jackson is the one where
it's like, could we have gotten someone better? I would,
I would think you just because you think either the
founders or whatever. I mean, because Franklin is up there.
I mean there was always there was arguments that you
should put Harriet Tubman on the twenty hour bill. That
was controversial gonna put her on a bill. Yeah, Look,

(13:03):
she's obviously a great figure in American history, I think,
but I think whenever you change it, people always are like,
why are you changing it in the first place? To
how how much does it cost? How how logistically possible
because now you're gonna have two decep for twenty hour
bills about.

Speaker 1 (13:16):
But you could also, okay, Jefferson on the two dollar bill,
which isn't heavily out there. But for Harriet Tubman is
an unbelievable heroic story. I mean, she went back time
and time again to free slaves at her own peril
and then use the underground h network. So that's that's
pretty remarkable. But look, I don't know what the criteria is.

(13:40):
I'm not really sure whoever made the decision. I think
everybody's comfortable with George.

Speaker 2 (13:44):
On the one and yeah, I think you gotta be
almost ord enough to kind of like the founding of
the Republic or like very important dates but were in
part of maybe like a patent on the twenty dollar
bill would have made sense because he was so important
or too. But you know who was that general?

Speaker 1 (14:02):
Well pat No, But I don't think that's a bad idea.
It's interesting, even Churchill, Reuverard Patton. I think you could
also look at it the other way. We should have
our most sludgeworthy presidents on the bills. I just you know, Coolidge, Nixon, Harrison.

(14:23):
He was only there for a month, so nobody kneho
the hell he was? Yeah, I mean, and then you
paint him in grateful dead colors. Nobody's losing money. Then
give me my Nixon back. All right, So on a
very serious note, probably take a while here on Iran.

(14:43):
I have no idea why the war began, and I
read Middle Eastern newspapers every morning. I would just say this,
So when the bombing began, I looked at the Middle
East and where we're at militarily. Now, this is under
a president who wanted no more forever wars.

Speaker 2 (15:04):
Right, all right?

Speaker 1 (15:06):
So you've got three military bases in Baharain, one in Cyprus,
one in Egypt, to in Iraq, one in Jordan, two
in Oman, two in Turkey, two in Saudi Arabia, three
in the Emirates, five in Kuwait, and I'm not really
sure the exact number any Raq. That together with the

(15:26):
fact that we have fifty thousand troops in the country.
So before we go here, just to give perspective, what
are the three largest countries with American troops that have
American troops station.

Speaker 2 (15:42):
I would guess Germany number two with thirty four thousand six,
Japan number one with thirty almost thirty nine thousand, and
then this is gonna be it is either I would
say South Korea or Saudi Arabia.

Speaker 1 (15:55):
South Korea.

Speaker 2 (15:56):
South Korea.

Speaker 1 (15:56):
Yeah, Saudi Arabia doesn't have a lot, but they have
the installation.

Speaker 2 (16:00):
Yes, that's it's the Biggess Lace.

Speaker 1 (16:02):
Yes, So people need to understand whether you're America first
or not, there's a substantial military presence. What's different with
this war, and what's interesting is the provocateur, which is America,
is unlikely to feel the full force of retribution.

Speaker 2 (16:20):
Well, of course, yeah, all so.

Speaker 1 (16:21):
The countries I just name, if they haven't they already
will get some excuse me, will received a hostile fire.
So let me end with this. A couple of weeks ago,
mister Trump said of the Iranians, helps on the way,
I mean, that's a brutal crackdown. Fifty four thousand people
people were killed, I mean murdered.

Speaker 2 (16:40):
Well, they believe it's around thirty to thirty five thousand
were murdered, straight murdered, and then fifty four thousand have
been detained or arrested. That's that's huge. And there's these
secret sites that they've sort of blacked out, these kind
of black boxes, so people don't know there's huge protests
in Iran. Their economy is not but not now, not
right No, absolutely, not right now. So they've part of

(17:01):
this because they called the protests. Part of that's also
because you know, once your country actually gets attacked and
in the consequence has become very stark, people change. They
huddle off their scared, obviously for their own families.

Speaker 1 (17:14):
So do you think me and my concern is this
could provoke the opposite response. This country is murderous in Iran,
it's brutal, It killed its people, prisons people awful conditions.
But now you have you've been programmed since seventy nine
that we are the great Saint.

Speaker 2 (17:31):
Yeah, and now they're coming and for reasons we don't know,
because remember we had we had a strike on Iran
very early the Trump administration that was supposed to end
the nuclear program. No more nuclear program, it's done, and
we'll have a negotiation. Now we now we say no,
we can't have negotiation. And then we're coming out and
saying they're developing ballistic weapons to attack the United States

(17:52):
and they're restarting their nuclear program. So the question is like,
what was what the attack before actually accomplished, what's the
plan now and what's the long term plant? I mean,
this takes I think this surprises that. Is that nowdy
run against I say long regime change? Or is that
this almost came out of nowhere. It was like it

(18:12):
seemed like there was no issue was a military action.

Speaker 1 (18:17):
What official said it was interesting. They asked why and
he said off the record is Trump is bored with peace.
And I know that he was really titillated when he
saw Israeli's bombing of Iran prior to the American bombing.
And again it's a very unusual and inconsistent stance to
bomb Venezuela, which is basically for oil. We're in Nigeria

(18:41):
now we have one hundred troops in Nigeria. We bombed Nigeria.
Nigeria is also a member of OPEK, and we bombed
Syria and now we're bombing Iran. So the point for
me being is I'm not opposed to military action if
I know what it's for. My assumption mister Trump's administration
going to say it's for regime check. Yeah.

Speaker 2 (19:02):
And then it's also the control maybe the oil going
through the Strait of Armose, which Iran has.

Speaker 1 (19:07):
Which Iran says is going to shut down the straight
up our Moose.

Speaker 2 (19:10):
And it also says that they want especially the end
not just a nuclear program, but their blistic weapons program.
The problem is that Iran will never end entirely. They're
because they're not only they are they against Israel, they're
also against Saudi Arabia and the Golf countries, so you have,
you know, these different rivalries. But they're never going to

(19:33):
be defenseless to the point of like a neutral.

Speaker 1 (19:35):
But Iran can fight. What we found when Iran was
in Syria is they can't fight well against a foreign enemy.
So Israel kicked the crap out of them right when
they were there. But Iran, I would imagine absent the
terrorist groups has borne to us are probably well, they

(19:57):
haven't fought any Rocks since the nineteen nineties.

Speaker 2 (19:59):
And they've either rock Rock have chemical weapons. I think
the thing is inside a country, it becomes way different.
If you're actually going to go into a country. Now
you have urban warfare. Now it's not just a straight
I don't think anyone thinks if you line up the
militaries that Israel in the United States would have trouble
with the wrong. But that's not what it is. It's
you know, you're dealing with urban warfare. It gets real
nasty of all these different groups.

Speaker 1 (20:20):
Well, anytime you occupy a country and you may be
able to preserve your military superiity superiority, you lose the
war for public support always. And so Israel is an
urban war. And I think it's likely war crimes have
been committed because you're fighting a war in such a
congested area. So my concern is I doubt because mister

(20:44):
Trump hasn't demonstrated a pension to invade, I have serious
concern that Iran has chemical weapons. I mean their close
ally Syria had it and they used it. I don't
know how long it takes or what this since that,
you know, you need to cover to deployment.

Speaker 2 (21:03):
There have been attacks, they've attacked, I believe American installations
in the different countries Bahrain and stuff. Obviously they're gonna
these other countries that host our military bies can be
very pissed because what's going on? Why do we essentially
attack for no you know, for the reasons.

Speaker 1 (21:16):
I think this could be bad news for Israel because
you're absolutely right, Baha, Rain, which used to be kind
of like the banking capital and Middle East, all these
other countries have basically tilted strongly towards America. Yeah, but
more than that, they've tilted strongly towards the Trump family.

Speaker 2 (21:31):
Yes, and it's how they got the Abraham Accords through too.

Speaker 1 (21:34):
Well, these and the Abraham Gorge were brilliant, and I mean,
I'm a Democrat, and you need to understand this was
a breakthrough. I think that Trump folks thought they could
expand it not so easy.

Speaker 2 (21:47):
Well, I think it was hard to expand because you
had the Israel, Palaestine, Flora well and with you know,
after the October seventh and the mass that created the
tension where the mility countries could no longer push for
normalization stuff. Whereas before that you had obviously problems with
contact and simmery instability. This is the same. Like I
just I guess I'm almost a little bit in like once,

(22:11):
I just don't understand the long term strategy. But here's
the thing I don't. I mean, shocked becomes a long
Irack style war because you'd have to put troops in,
and that's gonna be so so unpopular.

Speaker 1 (22:21):
I don't think he ever puts troops in.

Speaker 2 (22:23):
He Timmy does targeted strikes and then that's it, and
so is this it? It was just a targeted strike and
then it such he's gonna say, we're gonna try and
kind of deal. But then are you.

Speaker 1 (22:33):
Gonna look at Venezuela And let's end with this. Nothing
has changed except that they're exporting oil to us. Yeah,
there's no boots on the ground, that's right, you know.
And so you have people in Venezuela hoping for regime change.
Didn't happen. You have the same thing with Iran hoping
for regime change. But it's the same with Butch you
know Bush too, who thought well we'll get rid of

(22:55):
Hussein had some mortar mix it up and you got
instant democracy. These regimes aren't geared.

Speaker 2 (23:00):
Yeah, but I don't think it is like Bush two
because Bush two had a full all country approach. We
put tons of military.

Speaker 1 (23:08):
That's a good point. Uh, And I stand to be
corrected to the best time to be correct is when
we're going to breakshow. For the audience, we forget. This
is Eric epsteinding with money, O'Brien, we have Art Selby producing.
The organization has rocked the capital. The show is Thunderdome
and let's come back to Iran after the break. All right,
So let's get back to Iran. What you were I

(23:28):
don't want to put words of your mouth that you
were saying. There's a big difference.

Speaker 2 (23:32):
Right. So for George W. Bush, this was a nation
building project, a Marshall plan. You know, we sent billions
in aid, you know, one hundreds of thousands of troops
of political advisors, economics like, this was a Marshall plan.
And he's thinking Germany, Japan, South Korea, Poland Italy. With
any of these types of countries, whether it was after

(23:53):
World War Two, we're after the fall of the Soviet
Union or the Korean War, that's not how I would
say Trump operates. Trump operates by typically if he does
military very quick strikes and then kind of a deal afterwards.
So the Venezuela thing, you know, you would say, no
one sort of got exactly what they want. The people

(24:13):
that didn't want any intervention or pro Maduro obviously didn't
want that. But then the people that wanted full regime
change or changed to amocracy, and that's not what they
got either. They kind of got Bdua got captured. It's
a series of threats and then kind of an oil
deal and kind of working with the government that's that's
already been in place but is not Berdua, And that's

(24:34):
kind of it. So I'm wondering, is thatct what's gonna
happen with Iron because I don't see a prolonged we're
gonna send five hundred thousand troops and stay there and
try to make it Germany.

Speaker 1 (24:45):
I don't think he's gonna send any troops. I'm not. Yeah,
I don't know what the aim is. I mean, it's
that wild language, you know, make America safe again. I
think America's is strong, and I you know, I think
the Iranians demonstrated after the Israeli Twelve Day War and
the American strikes that they're they're more bluster than muscle.

(25:09):
Their their value I thought was funding has belah Umaus
and the Hutis. So they didn't do the fighting, but
they did the spunding.

Speaker 2 (25:19):
And they have their own problems. Semester, they had protests
at home. They're slow, they're weak economically, their biggest supporter
of Russia is basically completely contained in their own.

Speaker 1 (25:30):
Things are so bad for Russia and Iran that just
until recently, the Iranians were supplying the Russians.

Speaker 2 (25:36):
With drones, right, and that's how it was going to happen.

Speaker 1 (25:38):
And Russian is what. There's a million casualties in Russia. Yeah,
and you know one out of every four of their
working age men are gone. Yeah. So and we prove
it all right, so we moved half a million people
to the Middle East and we accomplished very little.

Speaker 2 (25:58):
Yeah. I don't see now, maybe what he maybe the
policy is, he's gonna do the same thing he tried
to do with Madroa. He's gonna do a quick strike,
maybe look for a quick resume change and then cut
a deal. And so it's not gonna be liberal democracy.
It's not gonna be a Germany Japan type of nation
building or Iraq type of nation building. This is a

(26:20):
strike and the deal.

Speaker 1 (26:21):
But what's in the deal? Because here here's the problem. Uh,
Democrat Republican administrations have been very effective when it comes
to essentially economic pressure on Iran. Iran is literally, I
don't want to say bankrupt, but pretty close.

Speaker 2 (26:39):
I listen, under the Obama administration was obviously left point administration.
He got all five of the big major economies Europe,
the United States, China, and Japan basically to ice out
Iran and to get the nuclear deal. And then we
we kind of ripped that up with the idea we
could get a better deal or we need more changes,
and now we're in this kind of, I guess, fluid

(27:00):
situation where we don't know, well, what's gonna happen.

Speaker 1 (27:03):
Positive for Trump is he's demonstrated he's willing to strike,
he's gonna be unwilling to deploy ground troops, and Israel
found out you can't win a war as you deploy
ground troops. And then it's just really.

Speaker 2 (27:16):
It'll be a nightmare because now you're dealing with urban warfare.
There's gonna be civilian casualties. Like I just I'd be
shocked if he does so to me. I guess we'll
have to see how this plays out in the next
two weeks, but it's I'm assuming it's gonna be a
quick series of strikes. They're gonna strike us back, which
they already in these different countries, and they're gonna go
to these countries and try to threaten them, and those
countries probably gonna go to loss and say, hey, you

(27:37):
need to cut a deal, and there might be the deal.

Speaker 1 (27:40):
I don't know if it's ever possible for the Middle
East to be exhausted by fighting, but I know it's possible.
And this is the likely pressure point. Is oil prices
to go up if they strangle the straight of hermose
and oil stops following and look as a favorite to trump.
A lot of these trees overproduced to drive down the price.

Speaker 2 (28:02):
That's right.

Speaker 1 (28:03):
I mean, oil is so fickle. It's like eating a
pomegranate in Greek mythology. It tastes good, but you have
to spend half your year in hell. It's the way
it works. So at any rate, unattended consequences millennial.

Speaker 2 (28:18):
Well, well, I think the obvious is that you and
the people that are supporting the regime instead of opposing it,
you get chaos instead of structure. You you move away
from any type of negotiation on a nuclear deal, and
then you're not able to and then you're essentially in
a series of consistent strikes year after year to stop

(28:39):
the nuclear program, or consistent undermining where they're they're constantly
in these proxy wars. I guess the the positives I
would be if the strikes work and then you're able
to cut a solid, long term deal which which can
provide stability and ends the threat, then we say, hey,
you know this was not the right move, or this

(29:00):
was maybe this was the right move, despite the fact
it's unpredictable because now we have a we have a
permanent end of the Iran Israel conflict in.

Speaker 1 (29:10):
The middle of Number one. I don't think there's ever
gonna be a permanent end. I think those hostilities will
fester forever. I think it's in the DNA Number two.
In order to get the oil out, we'd have to
rebuild the infrastructure based on what we sell in Venezuela.
None of the oil companies are gonna come and risk
being nationalized. And number three, it's just what the Iranians

(29:35):
want to some degree Americans in their country to pick off.

Speaker 2 (29:39):
Yeah, and this is going to create and pull back
in other places where or is this gonna affect our alliances?
How do the golf countries? The golf countries have looked
to push forward economically, and part of the deals they
made in the Abraham Accords, they did the hey, we're
going to become an economic powerhouse. The last thing they
want is another war in that region.

Speaker 1 (29:55):
Remind me who's on the Abraham Accords with America.

Speaker 2 (29:59):
So it's U Mo Rocco, Yeah, Morocco, I Bahrain. And
then there's one day Sudan, which as obviously work.

Speaker 1 (30:09):
So to me, I I don't really think the worst
case scenario is going to materialize. I don't see a
Vietnam here. I see what you see and that's probably
a quick response. And then you know, you leave the
country and you're hoping then that Iran agrees to some

(30:29):
of the terms you were negotiating.

Speaker 2 (30:31):
Right, So the big dispute is over the ballistic missile program.
But then Aroza come back and they're going to say, well,
we've seen, we've been attacked twice. We're not gonna get
rid of our missiles. So I think there has to
be hopefully that that that is what happens, that they say, hey,
we were attacked twice, we are gonna get rid of
our missiles. We're in a kind of deal, and any
of a long term deal, I think is because Venezuela,

(30:53):
the worst thing that could have happened did not happen.
It was not a total collapse. We do not see
war in the streets. It's not we don't have a
hundred thousand troops there with the Americans. Not you know,
it's not the worst. But it's also not the Poland
reforms after the Sovietia.

Speaker 1 (31:08):
Yeah, Poland Rush. It took a long time to make
Venicezuela is interesting. The vice president for Medoro is running
the country, right, you know, not a lot has changed.
There's still the potential of change. But the woman, when
the Nobel prize has been iced out, she's not a factor.
She gave her Nobel prize a jump.

Speaker 2 (31:29):
All right, Well, listen, The truth is because she always
could be. The factor is if you have a democratic
election and if you're going to cut a deal, you
can't go to them and say, hey, we're gonna overthrow you,
and we're a place with a democracy. You got to
cut a deal. So I think that's where it's like,
I maybe I'm wrong, but he's Trump was super skeptical
and all those campaigns about these these democracy building efforts.

(31:52):
So but he has done strikes and then deal strikes
and then deal. Is that gonna happen? But is there
a bullback? Because remember if there is an argument that
this is going to push them away from the table.

Speaker 1 (32:03):
Yeah, but I mean, look, regardless of how you feel
about mister Trump, making a deal with him is not
written in stone. It's not solid. It's fluid. You know,
it's invisiblying. So let me ask you three quick questions
because a lot of people are unaware of this. The
war now, the war now between Pakistan and Afghanshanistan. Is
that real.

Speaker 2 (32:23):
It's open, it's open. So the Pakistan president just said,
our generosity has basically ended. We're an open hostilities because
you know, Afghanistan has been centering essentially terrorists to them
and having bombings in Pakistan. And they're very angry because
the people that achieved, people that helped the Taliban was Pakistan.
You know, when the Talban was find the United States,

(32:43):
the Pakistanis were the ones that gave them shelter, gave
them resources, gave them essentially intelligence. I mean the argument
when we found Ben Lauden, he was, you know, fifty
fifty meters from essentially their version of the Air Force Academy.
It was fifty meters. You're telling me you couldn't find,
you know, in a house with ten people inside.

Speaker 1 (33:05):
I mean, so the second part of the first question
is they're very close. If Afghanistan Pakistan is a rival
of Iran, they're right across the body of water. Does
Afghanistan and Pakistan spill over to Iran? I mean, do
they see an opportunity there?

Speaker 2 (33:24):
Well, they have tensions of the Iran. I guess I'd
be skeptical just because I feel like they're already going
to bite off more than they can do, and so
would they go into Iran too? And in Iran, I
think is only gonna be concerned the messically, you know,
because their whole thing is if Russia's dealing with their
own thing, we have to rely on ourselves and if
we have essentially strikes that we have to deal with

(33:45):
I'd be shocked that they have any help outside of that.

Speaker 1 (33:47):
All right, So the third question is is Mexico in
a civil war.

Speaker 2 (33:51):
Mexico is not as war was in a cartel war.
One of the leaders of the main we've moved to
two big carts tell is basically the old Sineloa cartel
that got form to a new one. And then the
how Let's go New Boys, which is a very weird
tel Their leader got killed and they responded to military

(34:11):
and police.

Speaker 1 (34:12):
I think got killed. It's not like he ran in
front of a car. All right, Look, a lot of
military conflict. When we come back, Actually, we're gonna talk
about the biggest one that nobody talks about. Eric Epstein
in with Millennial Brian art Selbus producers will be back
in just a moment. I know it's hard to believe,

(34:35):
but in the last segment we're going to talk about
a war that's probably more brutal, vicious and had more
casualties than any other in the Middle East. It probably
rivals Russia. But in this Sue Dan, just to give
you an idea of the immense violence, there's a region
called alf for sure. It was taken over by the

(34:56):
rapid support forces. They're the insurgents in Sudan, and who,
by the way, are backed by the They're back by
the UAE and the government I believe is backed by
Saudi Arabia. So here's a proxy war between two oil countries.
But within like four or six weeks they think it

(35:17):
estimated sixty thousand people. All right, So let's put that
in perspective. So Hamas is saying sixty thousand people were
killed in Gaza. So this was in a couple of weeks.
Sixty thousand people were killed, they said, in just a
couple of days, twenty seven thousand. What makes is so
barbaric not that this is because this is essentially a

(35:39):
massive crime scene with nobody, not a lot of eyes
on the ground. They engage in two things that you
don't see elsewhere. They I don't say you don't see,
but sexual violence is a major component of the war.
And the other component. Again I'm not saying it doesn't
happen anywhere else, but a lot of the murder is

(36:00):
done hand to hand.

Speaker 2 (36:02):
Yes, So you're talking about, yes, a lot of very
we call it intimate I would say intimate violence.

Speaker 1 (36:08):
Uh.

Speaker 2 (36:09):
We was just under half a million people have been killed,
twenty five million facing famine, eight million UH displaced as
refugees because twenty five million affective by famine, eight point
eight million displaced, three and a half outside of the
country again, the rest inside the country four million children malnourished.

(36:31):
You're right, this is a proxy war between essentially different
factions of the Middle Eastern golf partners.

Speaker 1 (36:36):
Because I know you're on a riff. Where do these
people go. I mean, they're supposed to be part of
an Arab Muslim UH you know framework in the region.

Speaker 2 (36:47):
But that's not where they so mostly so the people
that the reason why most people haven't even left is
they basically are all forced to refugee camps. You're basically
just living in a tank. Then they're forced areas where
the fighting is not as brutal obviously can come to them.
And that's the thing is that it's because it's such
intimate violence that people just kind of show up at
like a village or a place and kill people and

(37:09):
then you're seeing it's such a weird display of you
have iPhone technology there, so people can film the killings, yes,
but then you have kind of I would say lower
level machetes, knives uses a bit because you don't have
enough guns and bullets for everyone. And that's so you
have essentially high level technology filming low level kind of

(37:32):
technical violence at an intimate level. And then you have
the RSF, which has been accused of genocide by other
such outside that's right, by outside organizations, that's supported by
the Emirates, and the government, which has not been accused
of genocide, has been accused of I believe, one hundred
and fifty burial sites for of not just people but civilians,

(37:53):
so also accused of their own what's say, war crimes,
support by Saudi Arabia.

Speaker 1 (37:58):
So those's that's incredible, and people need to understand the
term genocide has been misused, misappropriated and misunderstood. Genocide occurred
in Cambodia and Rwanda into the Jews and World War Two,
because essentially, with genocide, the goal is to kill all
the people of a certain ethnic.

Speaker 2 (38:19):
Group, complete extermination.

Speaker 1 (38:21):
That's not what's happening at Gaza. Even though it's a
brutal war here. It may be because it's tribal, and
I'm not really familiar with it.

Speaker 2 (38:30):
It is tribal. You've had since they required independence in
nineteen fifty. You've had twenty coups in civil conflicts, so
this is twenty So this is not just the first one.
And in that you have tons of factions. The only
other comparison I could just draw into my head is Lebanon,

(38:50):
that you had not just sort of Christian Muslim or
you had all these different factions and they fought for
years and years. Here you have similar the same things
and they have essentially roaming a lot answers where these
people work together, but they're not exactly from the same tribe.

Speaker 1 (39:03):
And these people, well, why are the United Emirates supporting
the insurgents and the Saudis supporting.

Speaker 2 (39:11):
So originally the Emirates was supporting the insurgence against the
government basically because the government I believe denied them mineral
rights and extraction rights, which is what they wanted.

Speaker 1 (39:20):
Uh Saudi right, I mean this is this is the
United Arab Emirates that probably couldn't fight itself out of
a paper bag, supporting a insurgency so that they could
secure This is interesting because this is an economic pattern,
so they can secure minerals.

Speaker 2 (39:35):
That's right. They concerned extraction rights in certain parts of
the country.

Speaker 1 (39:39):
And they're also part of the Abraham Cords.

Speaker 2 (39:41):
They're also part of the Aramic Courts. Although yeah, yeah,
and then you have Saudi Arabia that I believe either
does have or did have with the government dealers for
extraction rights, and so they want stability, they want the
exact because remember the biggest thing with distraction rights is
that you have to have a stable government. I mean,
even after let's say we left Afghanistan, people, Oh, there's
trillions of dollars and minerals there. China's gonna come in.

(40:03):
China never came in. Why because you got to deal
with Afghanistan. So it's not so that's.

Speaker 1 (40:09):
People need to listen to history. Nobody has successfully invaded Afghanistan.
Going back to Hannibal, Yeah, I mean it's so. I
guess what I'm asking Brian, is this pattern going to
be played out in other places and not.

Speaker 2 (40:26):
Just to Well, I think the worry is the Congo.
The Congo has a technically a deal. Although we'll see
the Congo and Rwanda. You see other parts of Africa
and Nigeria, although I think that's more religious violence, but
underneath that there are minerals and so I guess my
biggest question is the connection to extraction rights, mineral rights,

(40:48):
those deals with the overlapping of the ethnic and religious
conflicts and unstable governments.

Speaker 1 (40:56):
Is it?

Speaker 2 (40:57):
I mean, it couldn't get worse. Is this is just
the first step because in other places Morocco annex certain
parts of I'm in the country right below them, but
certain parts of their land. There has been a breakout
of civil conflict. But you have those those pushes and
pools in Africa, which is very much more diverse than
people realize. You have in the North era, I would

(41:18):
say more Arab Muslim thing, and then it's up to
the South Christian very let's say African, whether or not Muslim,
Well get a mix of Christian and Muslim, but more
I would say subs are an African complexion. And that
also has a factor because you see here one of
the groups said, I believe that when asked about the

(41:38):
racial killings, is that we want to kill all the
black people. We've been one of none of them in
the areas we rule, which is obviously horrible.

Speaker 1 (41:46):
But just so, the Epstein doctrine, as we know it
has two components, very simple, very basic, very true. All
wars are fought over geology or geography. If you don't
have the minerals or you don't have a location, nobody cares. Right,
you know, these wars aren't happening unless you've got the minerals.

(42:07):
In a lot of case, rare earth minerals, that's right, rare.
A lot of these are extended wars. So, okay, the
Emirates are fighting. They remember the accord. You know, maybe
there's minerals there that we will be able to get
without shedding blood. Congo is the u is, the prize,
is the trophy. There was genocide with Rwanda with you
know the Congo is being involved. But the Congo has everything.

Speaker 2 (42:32):
Yeah, it has everything. And if you look at the
methods of extraction, it is like I guess I would
compare it to like eighteen hundreds coal mines type of
labor for horrible for kids. But they're they're doing it
because they can get way more money, even in the
little money they get, than they can in a normal commy.

(42:52):
So these places that are already unstable, already have economic
problems now getting overlapped with other countries, mineral rights, and
then essentially their ethnic and religious tensions.

Speaker 1 (43:03):
The synthesis, and one here is that getting access to
other countries minerals using their country's inhabitants as slaves. Yeah,
it is profitable. I mean it's it is awful and horrible,
but profitable.

Speaker 2 (43:17):
Because I thought after World War Two there was a
push and after the nineties in particular, there was a
push for free trade, which is that we can't have
a mineral rights, we can't have extraction rights through just
basic commerce, through deals and deals. I mean the Saudi Arabia,
United States, the always gets brought up, no whatever it
res up as both countries benefit. The United States benefited
the loyal, Saudi Arabia benefit from the revenue, and both

(43:39):
countries had you want that more?

Speaker 1 (43:42):
Look, Saudi Arabia benefited by getting us as a bodyguard.
How much time do we have, art?

Speaker 3 (43:47):
How about two minutes?

Speaker 1 (43:48):
Oh my god? Art? Well, it's nice. I guess things
on the farm. Anything new for this week?

Speaker 3 (43:54):
Nothing too exciting at the farm? Do have Hershey Bears?
Hockey coming up tonight on our SIS your station, Fox
Sports fourteen sixty against Rockford tonight at seven thirty, And
I was confirmed. What we'll keep everyone up to date
this afternoon that the Ayatola Kamini was that was killed
over and Iran.

Speaker 1 (44:12):
Yeah, I suspect that's probably Israel.

Speaker 2 (44:15):
There was a joint. It was joints strike, so I'm
showing his joint.

Speaker 1 (44:18):
I still suspect it was. I mean, they just got
the intel. I don't know what that does. The most
powerful force in Iran wasn't the Iatla but the Revolutionary Guard.
So we'll see if there's a military coup. How's your
wife feel, an Art, She was sick there for a while.

Speaker 3 (44:35):
She's pretty close to back to normal now. Still she's
I still hear a coffin from time to time.

Speaker 1 (44:39):
All right, Well then if you had not been, if
you you know, when I was married, the way I
always dealt with that is by having earplugs. Yeah, divorced,
all right.

Speaker 2 (44:51):
I think it was to stay Mary.

Speaker 1 (44:53):
So I wonder why, huh I was the least eligible
bachelor on this face of the earth. So, Brian, what
do we got any sports?

Speaker 2 (45:02):
I guess Morsmass is coming up. I'm very excited because
I think there's a lot of great players in college basketball,
and I think there's a lot of great teams, So
I'm real excited for this year's Marshmadis. I think it's
gonna be good. I think Michigan's gonna win. That's just
my pick in my head. But you know, marsh manas
anything can happen.

Speaker 1 (45:19):
I never picked any of the four favorites, never, So
I was gonna go out to the Atlantic Ten for
the entire tournament with my friend Nick, who was a
national All American when we were in college. Turned out,
Nick just told me he can't come because he got
scammed by this ticket thing called Dollar Airplane. I don't
know if anybody's heard of it. But by the way,

(45:41):
if you haven't heard me, it's because I'm not talking
into the microphone. I was talking into the computer. I
didn't think I could get any weirder scam.

Speaker 2 (45:49):
You gotta be careful.

Speaker 1 (45:49):
Yeah, yeah, But the Atlantic ten in Pittsburgh, Man, there's
some good teams there. I'm just telling you. George Mason
VCU Saint Louis, although I'll have to watch it on TV.
So as we're coming to a close, everybody, have an
enjoyable weekend. Please don't drink and drive. We'll see you
in two weeks. Uh, show y'all