Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome folks. March twenty eighth. Actually it's a very significant date,
twenty twenty six. I'm Eric Epstein. I'm here with Millennia O'Brien.
We're Rock the Capital. We're a good government anti corruption organization.
We were founded after the illegal pay raise in two
thousand and five. So we don't really support either party.
(00:24):
What we try to do is who's find out as
who's throwing the party and whatever financial connections are evolved,
and we don't take sides, we take aim. So I
just ah Man Tiger Woods another DUI.
Speaker 2 (00:40):
Yeah, it's sad. I think he rolled over his car.
I actually saw him compete in his indoor golf league recently,
and he's just great for golf, and especially with this
new internet kind of YouTube type of golf. I thought
to have him as kind of like just to participate
in the events. It'd be great to bring him in.
Speaker 1 (01:00):
It's unfortunate, Yeah, I guess. I mean I heard that
at the Masters he's going to be playing with John Daily.
Speaker 2 (01:07):
Oh really, I mean listen, that'd be a pairing.
Speaker 1 (01:12):
Yeah, it would be a pairing, all right. I mean
it's so March twenty eighth, nineteen seventy nine. Has been
forty seven years since the action in a three mile Island.
Three Mile Island is back in the news this week
because PJM, the grid operator, told Constellation that they would
not be able to essentially attach it to the grid.
Speaker 2 (01:34):
What does that mean, Well, I mean it means that,
you know, if you produce energy, you have to have
the infrastructure and logistical support to take it places. I remember,
the energy that would be used a three mile Island
is not just going to go to Microsoft to Amazon,
It's going to go to Microsoft's Amazon in Indiana, right,
So you're talking about essentially need to be hooked up
to the grid. PJAM is the biggest grid in the country.
(01:55):
I think it has thirteen states roughly, and all energy
that's is brought online and it's permanent has to be
essentially integrated in their infrastructure to go state to state.
Speaker 1 (02:06):
So it's possible the plant could restart in twenty twenty seven,
twenty thirty one casts some doubt, and since the fate
of t MII too the plant damaged forty seven years ago,
it's still in limbo. The plant is not decontaminated or decommissioned,
so that issue is around, likely to be around for
a while. The No Kings March three thousand demonstrations throughout
(02:33):
the country. Is this significant.
Speaker 2 (02:35):
I think it might be significant because we've seen not
just you, I would say the traditional Democrat base, but
now because of the Iran War gas prices higher, a
bigger dissatisfied independence that would switch the other way, and
then a less energized Republican base. Even though I think
overall their stand with President Trump, there may be people
(02:58):
that stay home or not happy because of the sort
of the downward effects of the Iran War. I think
the the you know, we can have different debates about,
you know, how Trump hits with different groups, but if
the consequence of the Iran War get worse for a
long term, that's going to hurt Republicans because that's that
(03:20):
has immediate economic effects on everyone.
Speaker 1 (03:23):
So I mean, when you look at the three thousand rallies,
is a lot. And I think two, maybe three of
the key demographics that are starting to really swing against
Trump are the independents, yeah, and the soccer moms who
have become politically active, especially on immigration. But the third
part is, and this is cyclical, the Democrats have the
(03:47):
energy right now. The Republicans.
Speaker 2 (03:49):
Yeah, and I think listen, if you look at let's
say thet the weaker part of the Body administration, whence
it was high gas prices, high inflation in the Ukraine
War were not necessarily a direct participant, were indirect and
those downward effects I think we can see. Unlike the
venezuel operation, which was a very short successful and whether
(04:10):
you agree with it or not, doesn't have domestic political effects,
this could have if it extends for a long time,
domestic political effects.
Speaker 1 (04:18):
So let's rewind it backwards to Venezuela is back to
being run like it was prior to removing Maduro, who
now claims to be indigent and can't afford his own defense,
which would be wild if we kidnapped a guy and
then we had to provide him with the defense attorney.
But basically, if I read this right, in Venezuela it
(04:41):
only produces one percent of the world's oil supply, even
though it has the most reserves.
Speaker 2 (04:48):
I actually looked at the reserves. They do have a
ton of reserves. It might be a misunderstood number. It's
just because, uh, the way it went from let's say
second or third to one is Chavez ca in one
day and triple the reserve numbers, So we don't know
if he's being honest or if they actually found it.
In Venezuela. Because of their state run oil companies have
(05:08):
not updated their infrastructure, not updated their port infrastructure updated
because they wanted to keep those costs low. Because what
they did is they took the profits they made from
the oil and used to spend on their welfare budgets,
and so they never wanted to actually invest in a
way a normal private company would have make the oil transportation.
Speaker 1 (05:26):
So that's why it's an unattractive developmental proposition for the
Seven Sisters, the big oil companies. I mean, the infrastructure
like Iraq and Iran is antiquated, and I know that
the Trump administration I think, lifted sanctions on Venezuelas state
owned oil to sell.
Speaker 2 (05:47):
I think we might. What might happen is the United
States government is going to give insurances on Venezuelan and
oil initially, and then once the companies go in and
there's actual deals, then they'll eventually try to transition to
a friendly events. The problem is no one trusts, at
least right now, for the wyal companies, is this going
to be two years another Maduro where they flip all
(06:10):
their rules and they make a state wrong.
Speaker 1 (06:12):
Why would you, I mean, it's risky and devor Why
would you invest in a very unstable country in a
very unstable region when we have a lot of oil
and we have a lot of reserves within our own boundaries.
So I just wanted to back up to what we
were talking about earlier about the impact of the war
(06:33):
on the Trump administration. How do you read the two
victories by the Democrats in Florida on Tuesday?
Speaker 2 (06:40):
Well, I think it shows that the midterms are looking
very pro Democrats. So typically you look at early general
early elections and say, okay, what's the turnout? Is this representative?
What's going to happen during the midterms? And I think
that because the turnout in Republican areas was strong, it
shows that the independence are swinging to the Democrats. Now,
any midterm election almost always hurts the incumbent, hurts Joe Biden,
(07:04):
hurts Trump. The question is how much does it hurt
the incumbent and or their policy situations that are going
to make it worse. And you know, listen, gas prices
and general inflation have a cut through effect in the
economy that makes independent swing one way or the other.
We saw it with Joe Biden where gas prices were high,
inflation was high, it hurt under Obama. People forget there
(07:26):
was an a period in twenty twelve where or I'm sorry,
twenty fourteen where their gas prices were higher that hurt
him a lot in those midterms. So the question is
for the Iran war, what's the end state. If this
ends quickly and there's a long term, let's say, peace
agreement that can be trusted, then it's possible the oil
(07:47):
prices will come down. I don't think as strongly as
they were before, but at least that pressure go. If
this gets worse and there's energy infrastructure tax.
Speaker 1 (07:55):
Well, okay, we'll talk about this later, the warring at
any time soon. But I think you raise a good
point in that, and I think that what caught my
attention is this swing in two years for a Trump. Yeah.
One of the districts is his own home district. Yes,
you know, you know there's a radical swing. I get
(08:16):
it that midterms are usually not good, but based I
just wanted you to talk about it briefly because nobody's
really talked about it. Kevin Kyleie two weeks ago as
a Republican from California. I don't really get it, but
I think he switched parties.
Speaker 2 (08:34):
So he switched independent.
Speaker 1 (08:36):
Uh.
Speaker 2 (08:37):
And this is done in basically in any district, that's
to say, a swing districts where a party becomes very
unpopular quickly. Just having that next to your name could
hurt your your your chances, or your policy. So if
you have you see this in uh the other way too. Uh.
Let's say Republican districts. Uh, We're a Democrat one and they,
(09:00):
let's say the Democrat brand gets such a hit, they'll
switch independent if they think they can their policies are
moderate or can connect with voters enough.
Speaker 1 (09:08):
This guy wasn't a dependable Trump vote to begin with.
Speaker 2 (09:11):
That's right.
Speaker 1 (09:11):
So you have a razor thin margin, which is even
more fragile. Yeah, and then you have some discontent on
how the House Speaker Johnson handled the Senate passage of
the dh Yeah, which is not going to be taken
up by the House unless I miss something. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (09:32):
Well, their thing is they want to pass the Save Acts,
the Save Acts of voter id stuff, and they want
those connected, so they don't just want straight TSA funding.
Now you've heard on the reports and you heard from
the airports because of this are just horrible. If you
don't have extra personnel, I mean TSA's aren't getting paid,
the lines are out the door. That has a tangible
(09:54):
effect on everyone that wants to travel. And so the
people are gonna use as levers because DeMar is going
to say Republicans control House for the cent and probably
control the presidency. If they can't get stuff done, it's
on them, Yeah, or that it's.
Speaker 1 (10:06):
A gamble, it's a risk. I mean, at the end
of the day, I think the president did authorize the
employees to get paid, but there's been a number of stickouts.
And even before this occurred, you know, there's you know
a lot of airline employees either furloughed or left. But look,
let's take a break. I'm Eric Epstein with Millennial. Brian
art Selby is producing or organization has rocked the Capitol.
(10:30):
Please check our website and the program is Thunderdome. So
I mean every once in a while, I mean, you
listen to our advertisers. One is Burner with the less
lethal approach. I want more lethal. I mean, I mean,
if I get sued, I just want to make sure
that it's in a state, not a person. I mean,
(10:53):
we should come up with a product, Eric and Millennial
Brian's for home security land mines.
Speaker 2 (11:01):
Okay, so you might's we'll go to like Ukraine or
the straight Armus. Get the best mind you can find.
Speaker 1 (11:10):
You get people home invaders, you get people who nuisance people,
you knows anyone. Every once in a while, I get it,
the neighbor's dog is gonna get blown up. But I
mean it's it's it's a low.
Speaker 2 (11:24):
Cost, low costs, super effective.
Speaker 1 (11:28):
Super I mean unbelievable. So breakdown. There's two cases. We're
still on our ask Brian feature, which is becoming bigger
and bigger because Brian is smarter and smarter. So I'm
trying to understand the two suits that the one against
Meta that said they intentionally got people addicted, and then
(11:51):
the one against Elon Musk and where he was libel
for driving down Twitter stock. Are they connect?
Speaker 2 (12:00):
They're not connected, So there's two different suits. So for
Elon Musk when he bought Twitter in twenty twenty two,
the argument is that he used confidential informations that were
part of the deal on let's say interaction stuff or
about the company that when they were selling, and his
own sort of public you know, public image to sort
(12:23):
of drive down the value of what Twitter acquisition would cost.
And they're claiming it was that he bought it for
forty four billion and he's gotta have to pay two
point one billion dollars in damages. Now, this was done
in California and San Francisco, so there might be a
more favorable judge there to that, So he might appeal this.
(12:45):
But overall, I think what is the argument is that
you can't use public airwaves. There's there's rules on stockbroken
in this example, So you can't use public airwage to
drive down a company's value and then try to benefit
from it. So that's what they're trying to claim. Obviously,
he'll claim the exact opposite and appeal. Let's say, you know,
I'm just I have First Amendment right to free speech
(13:07):
and that none of the information I released was non public. Now,
I don't know how how true that is what.
Speaker 1 (13:12):
We'll see, Yeah, I mean, musk relationship with the First
Amendment is a very fluid concept. But you're right, he's
likely to appeal. Who is harmed? Who gets the money?
Speaker 2 (13:22):
Uh? The former sharehoords of x or Twitter, So they
essentially lost money in their argument in the acquisition they
would have got had this deal not been public or
the details have been released. We'll see. I don't think
anyone's gonna be crying over even you know, they might
like not like musk or but you know, we're talking
about billionaires and billion you know, it's not we're not
(13:44):
talking small people on the meta suite. It's a different thing.
So the medicituite claims, and there's been documentaries on Netflix.
John hat or Hate wrote a book about this that's
such a social media company's copy casinos and try to
figure out ways to get people addicted to their products.
(14:04):
And the argument is that they've used underheaded methods that
go beyond just normal consumersod that the way they put
the images on the screen of like liking and retweeting
and stuff like that, it's like a slot machine to
try and get people that addicted kind of rush feel.
Speaker 1 (14:24):
Uh.
Speaker 2 (14:24):
The argument that social new companies make is that we
just want to make our product better and that when
people are willing consumers of it, that makes our product better,
so we're not They said they're not actively doing anything
outside the law. They said that they're just making a
product that people want to use. People like interfaces that
are interactive and kind of bring them in and we've
seen different things. To're talking about brain chemistry that you know,
(14:45):
people that are on their screens all the time when
they're young, it rewires their brain chemistry. They should probably
be reading more and stuff like that. But then the
argument is, can you force a company that makes their
product good essentially with that withinside the LA to pay
damages on that? And I think that's gonna be hard.
It's gonna be a hard case.
Speaker 1 (15:05):
All right. So here's the issue that you also have
the liquor industry and as you said, the gaming industry
doing the same thing. Absolutely, I mean, they're enhancing their
products and more people will use it. I'm not surprised
by the verdict and I'm pretty sure I'm almost positive
that that's what's happening. But can you ask a company
(15:25):
to self debilitate?
Speaker 2 (15:28):
I mean, the argument, so people would make is this,
cigarettes are legal. Cigarettes have super restrictions on advertising, on selling.
If you know you want to go buy cigarettes, there's
age limits. Even gambling and liquor, there's age limits. There's
age of crommers. If you're at a bar and you're
super drunk, the bartender's supposed to cut you off at
some point. Are those type of restrictions on the social
(15:50):
media companies? Are there age restrictions to say, you know,
or time with restrictions. And then there's also been not
directly facilitated, but let's say indirectly hands off more serious
accusations of people taking private information, let's say from kids,
and there's not enough protection around that. Let's say, you know,
in very serious cases kids getting essentially having their data
(16:15):
or their information taken by actual predators.
Speaker 1 (16:18):
So those Yeah, but this goes back to I mean,
people need to understand that the First Amendment is an
absolute and I think at this point, I don't know
if there's any rollback machine. You know, we live in
a world with social media. Yeah, people are dependent, if
not addicted, that I get. I don't know how you
(16:39):
would enforce.
Speaker 2 (16:42):
I think the best you could do is you could
probably do content restrictions for kids, and you can maybe
have parental guidelines almost like used to have on the
TV where it's like, after these hours, these shows we're
going to ban. So you could do some things for kids,
but I think once you're of age at eighteen twenty one,
there's gonna be no because you have freedom of speech
(17:02):
but also freedom association, all the stuff that protects them.
Speaker 1 (17:05):
Yeah. But the problem is that the age group that
you're trying to prevent from participating is more tech savvy,
that's right, than the generation. So they'll look when you
tell somebody don't do what they do it, you know.
I mean it was what's the name of that movie
at Christmas Time with a guy with a BB gun.
Speaker 2 (17:25):
A screws or Christmas Story?
Speaker 1 (17:27):
Yeah, yeah, yeah, I always think of the guy with
the tongue on the flagpole. I mean, when you tell
people not to do something. Yeah, we used to say,
you know, hey, you know, don't put your head on
the oven. I think people got the memo. But here's
the problem. There's a reason the First Amendment is first,
it's not absolute, and I strongly opposed allowing demonstrators to protest.
Speaker 2 (17:52):
At social feral.
Speaker 1 (17:54):
Yeah. So the thing is that you can call it
whatever you want to call it. They can call it marketing, advertising,
free market. I just think we're still struggling to get
our arms around how to monitor and regulate something that
like social media, that's omdepressed. I mean no matter where
(18:14):
I go. I was out for dinner the other night,
two kids and two parents. Last night we were out
at what was that corral, Dodge Dodge City. Yeah, yeah,
and four people at the table, two parents and two kids,
all four, All four were on their cell phone. It's like,
(18:38):
oh my god. I remember one time during one Thanksgiving
the TV went out and everybody looked around in horror.
Is like, Wow, we've got to interact with each other.
Maybe we should introduce who we are. But I think
part of the negatives of a social media driven environment
people don't know how to interact with folks don't know
(19:00):
how to communicate through written form or verbal form. And
this reminds me. I don't know if Art remembers when
Tipper Gore was vice president, they wanted to have labels
for music.
Speaker 2 (19:17):
Okay, like almost like movie theaters.
Speaker 1 (19:21):
Nobody pays attention. Nobody pays attention. I mean growing up.
I think I don't know if Art remembers is at
midnight there would be a profile of an Indian seriously
and it would say this is the end of our
broadcasting day, and they would play the Star Spangled banner
and you had to fend for yourself intellectually six hours.
(19:46):
Can you imagine six hours no internet? People would be
out of their mind. People would move to Iran to
get the internet.
Speaker 2 (19:55):
Shut down. I mean, that's the thing. It's not just
the cats out of the bag. That every part of
our society is integrated. I almost think you have to
put you if you you almost to go the cigarette route,
where you put restrictions on it. Uh. A good example
is food. You know when people talk about American food
being different than the countries, that's partly true, but the
big thing is the portion size, where other countries have
(20:17):
almost wall based limitations on health and portion sizes. If
you actually tried to implement that here, you might say
it's healthy. But when people follow it, I think people
would lose their mind because I mean, remember when Bloomberg
tried to take away the Big Gulf. It's like a
it was like a gallon soda. It's like, this is unhealthy.
People are like this is you can't do this. It's
(20:38):
like but that's that's my point, is that I think
we have a a freedom drive in this country that
everyone wants, which you can make bad decisions, and we
have to if we want max freedom. You have to
accept people will make bad decisions.
Speaker 1 (20:51):
But you have to understand that there's limits to every amendment.
And like the Second Amendment, nobody's gonna take anybody's guns.
But you don't need to bazooka uhlan. Land mines are different, man.
Land mines are benign. You know. Now, the land minds
I have just to spell this out, wouldn't be fatal.
(21:13):
They would be just like stepping on what a stun gun. Yes,
a person would be stunned, and you know maybe you know,
we would rearrange their brain chemistry, you know we would.
We would just flip this last thought before we go
to break. I think we may have to do what
(21:34):
many states are doing with schools where the cell phone
is in a pouch, yeah, or not allowed. You have
to You're gonna have to have cell prone free areas,
like there's smoke free areas. I just think there anything
you try to do to regulate monitor diminished social media
is going to be met with a lot of resistance.
Speaker 2 (21:56):
Yeah, but I think you're right. I think schools are
the best place because I think if kids grow up
with you can't have your phone in school, and then
you have to do activities interact with people that at
least give them the social interactions they're losing because I
think you're right. In day day life, especially post COVID
where we had all the digital stuff, interactions of just
ceteria people are scared to say hi sometimes yeah.
Speaker 1 (22:15):
But on the other end, people are absolutely abusive and nasty,
you know. Yeah, you know you can see them at
the checkout, you know, like's let's use the big gulp.
It's like you said, you know, eight hundred ounces and
there's only seven sixty. You know, I'm gonna flip out.
I mean, people don't know how to talk to one
another or treat one another, you know. So that goes
(22:39):
back to one of my years ago. One of my
original thoughts is when it comes to gaming and tobacco,
first grade pack of smokes, gambling chips, let's get them
conditioned early. All right, Yeah, this segment's been sponsored by
the Landown Associate Landmine Association. Anyway, Eric Epstein Millennial Brian
(23:00):
were being produced by art selby the organization as Rock
The Capitol were Thunderdome again, art, I stretched it, I apologize.
We'll be back in a moment. Well, welcome back. We're
in a third segment and Sophie Cunningham, who plays with
KL Caitlyn Clark. So I did watch the videos and
(23:22):
she has like a.
Speaker 2 (23:22):
Massive following Sophie Cunningham. Yeah, yeah, Well I think what
happened is Caitlin Clark was getting let's say, attacked outside
of the basketball physicality. They hired Sophie Cunningham, who's a
taekwondo expert, so a fight expert, but also very attractive.
And so you' thatcher to the best basketball player ever
who has a lot of fans, and she's the only
(23:43):
one kind of defending her that that. I mean, she's
got commercials now basically because.
Speaker 1 (23:47):
No, she's She was the one who came out and said,
what's happening to Caitlyn is racism. She's being targeted because
she's white. Yeah, and she's unbelievably attractive and she also
listens to a lot. I mean, and this is what
sold me on her. A yeah, but she just said, look,
(24:08):
here's the deal. You know, I'm going to protect her.
You know, she is being targeted. She goes, I'm being targeted.
Yeah so she but I didn't think that. I mean,
she's like a southern California proto type.
Speaker 2 (24:22):
Yes, yes, she looks Yeah, she looks like a model.
She's also obviously a w NBA player, and she's a
taekwondo experts. She got you know, those crazy kicks.
Speaker 1 (24:30):
Right, so she would be the perfect face of our
landmine home security. Yeah yeah, well, go right to it.
So I want to read something to you. It's going
to take a minute. And this blew my mind. And
we're backing back into Iran because we have to, so
before the dust even settled. When the US and Israel
airstrikes began. By the way, as a newsflash, the hoodies
(24:52):
attacked Israel today. Yeah so, and we killed the Supreme Leader,
which all the I mean, killing the Supreme Leader is
like I what's the name of the animal when you
cut off a foot and then two more come back?
Yeah yeah, yeah. So anyway, but as the embassies and
(25:13):
international airports and hotels became targets of Iran, and this
blew my mind. Uh, the Emirates Kuwait, Qatar, Iraq, Saudi
Arabia and others were attacked. So here this is what's interesting.
Yet in each of those cases, there is no sitting
US ambassador to deal with an urgent foreign policy deal.
(25:37):
I mean, so is you know when you need like China,
Red China, Taipei, Teyhran, Caracas, all these places, you need
a full time team on the field. And so I
was looking at the number, and even in I said
that I'm getting this right. So Panama is the example.
(25:58):
From two hundred and eighteen to twenty twenty two, the
US Embassy lacked an ambassador on the ground in Panama. Yes, right,
So during those five critical years, Panama signed forty seven
bilateral agreements with China and became the first Latin American
country to join China's Belt and Road initiative. So China
(26:23):
rapidly expanded its influence and control around the Panama Canal.
That trade route carries about forty percent of all the
US container traffic. So you look at Latin America, you
know precisely the moment when US engagement is most needed
to rebuild relations with the Postmaduro Venezuela and stabilize the reason.
(26:44):
US embassies in seventeen seventeen countries across the hemisphere, including Brazil, Colombia,
Ecuador have no ambassador. So the final point is you
have much of Africa. I think there's forty one embassies
not filled in Africa. Yeah, why should you care? Because Africa,
(27:07):
which has the fastest growing population, holds eighty five percent
of the world's magnes eighty percent platinum and chromium, forty
seven percent cobalt, twenty one percent of graph fight and
six percent of COPPERA. So what the hell is going on? Man?
It's like both most administrations.
Speaker 2 (27:23):
Yes, but I think it started where they couldn't get
their nominees Senate confirmed. So rather than doing that, they
either left the post opened. They and they had other
problems that they had ideological disputes with I would say
career bureaucrats, and so they either left the post opened,
fire the people there, or they would a point people
through executive order. But you can only down on a
(27:43):
temporary emergency basis, so you had to do it every
sixty days, and then there was places left open that
just weren't important. And I think the reason is they
wanted more control to the head of the state's parts,
like Marco Rubio and have him directly administered the agenda.
So that was the plan. But you're right, if you
don't have one hundred an ambassador one hundred percent focused
(28:04):
on those countries, you're behind the eight ball. And in
this case with Iran, UH their strategy is, we can't
defeat the United States militarily. We cannot go totel with them.
I mean, they've had I think six deaths or thirteen
deaths for the US military, one death for the Israeli military.
Everything else has been civilian targets.
Speaker 1 (28:24):
Well, there's been many Israeli deaths civilians, yes, yeah, and
and and and but the UAE.
Speaker 2 (28:31):
Guitar, Jordan, Turkey, all these, all the golf countries I've
been targets. And their argument is, will hold the straight
uPAR mouse, will target all these areas that either host
U spaces or a friend of the United States with
civilian areas, and and we're not going to engage or
we can engage militarily, We're gonna use these asymmetric tactics.
Speaker 1 (28:51):
The problem is without representation. Obviously, we don't have an
ambassador in Iran, and in the past Whizerland or Canada representative,
so the people who would normally represent US the countries
are nado countries who are President just called cowards. Right,
So now you have what's getting to be really bizarre,
(29:14):
where the countries we just mentioned that don't have an
ambassador actually need America and Israel to pound away in
Iran because their fear is whatever we're doing here and
I'm not sure what it is after it's done.
Speaker 2 (29:30):
Or we're going to be exposed, right, and that Iran's
going to develop control of the Strait of armuse, They're
going to build up these asymmetric capabilities, and they're going
to try and get a nuke, and then once they
get a nuke, they have the blackmail card. And so
because you're not going to get it, seems like, at
least right now, although you have very much regime penetration
and it's super successful assassination campaigns, you won't get an
(29:54):
actual change in the regime like you did in Van Isleela,
where there's actually a change and at least how they're
dealing with it.
Speaker 1 (30:00):
The Vice President Dulcie, who's now running Venezuela, was.
Speaker 2 (30:04):
The right arm right, But the actual policy to the
United States is if you got someone, let's say you've
got the parlamentarian who they're saying they negotiate with Speaker
of Iran to become the president and he got and
you got at the ending of the nuclear program of
reduction of the ballistic missiles. Have you actually got that then,
even though you don't have a true democracy, it might
(30:27):
they might say a success. But if you don't get that,
or you get what we think is gonna happen, which
is a harder regime, then you're you're right.
Speaker 1 (30:34):
We're already in the nightmare scenario. Look, regime change has
never worked. You got to be honest. Either it's going
to be a coup and we're gonna militarily put somebody
on like we did with the Shaw. But out of
the seventeen hour nations, none of them have democracies. There's
kingdom's monarchies or dictatorships. So I mean that's where I
(30:55):
think Bush and Cheney were naive. All right, we'll just
pound the crap out of them, you know, add some
democratic Uh, I don't even know what you would start
with the water and you got democracy.
Speaker 2 (31:07):
Yes, you think it's it's not a pole in their Korea.
That's just that's what.
Speaker 1 (31:11):
The countries were made from. Artificial boundaries created by Europeans,
so in order to keep the countries and I hate
to say it in line or unified. Usually who say
or Assad, there's you you It only works and we
saw this, I mean we just talked about this earlier.
(31:33):
Regime change only works if you're going to put people.
Speaker 2 (31:35):
On the ground and stay there for for years. And
that's and that's obviously not in the cards. If you
look at the military answers of their their strike groups,
which are very quick missions, similar to Venezuela thing, but
it's a it's a much different deal in Iran. Now,
the question is the military has been super successful. It's
it's been incredibly stressful putting being the conventional forces of Iran?
(31:58):
Does that shame? Can you deal with their asymmetric capabilities?
And then does that change the calculus? And I think
right now, I'm obviously you're hopeful because you don't want
a worst regime in wrong, but I guess I'm skeptical.
Speaker 1 (32:12):
So I mean Americans, you know, or like Pennsylvanians, we
never miss an opportunity, to miss an opportunity, So yeah,
we're superior militarily. This is very similar to the bombing
of Cambodia and after just remember after we left, Cambodia
had to genocize pot all right, very similar to Afghanistan.
(32:37):
Why you would want that property? I don't know. I mean,
it's only cash crop, it's heroin. So you have in
both instances a lot of American fatalities, a lot of money.
By the way, and Trump is good at this the
famous peace dividend. You no peace dividend, you know. So
(32:57):
we're barking up the same tree. So the question I
have for you with all this going on, and essentially
we have military incursions and number of places throughout the world,
I don't know if you agree with it. We talked
about this in the car the other day. I listened
to a former Iranian diplomat and he said, first of all,
(33:19):
you're crazy if you don't think the Iranians were waiting
for this moment for forty seven years.
Speaker 2 (33:24):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (33:25):
Secondly, he said, the guy that is conducting negotiations for
the Iranians did the negotiations with the European nations and
Obama when they cut a deal. I think I told
you this, Yes, And the first time they met, the
dude gives them an hour lecture on the infallibility of Mohammed.
(33:45):
So you're going to go down a more radicalized you
know that's true.
Speaker 2 (33:50):
So yeah, I think the worry is if you look
at the iris GC commanders they've promoted and the way
the surviving so has acted, uh, that the ideological bent
is actually more hardline that the deal you had under
the j cpu A, which was done with the Irani
government in Iran, which he didn't have full power, but
(34:13):
he had enough power that the Supreme Leader gave him
the option to give right that's gone and then a
lot of them are wiped out and the question is
do you have now do you just have a worst
regime in general? The question is can they use that
power to actually threaten these other countries long term? If
(34:35):
basically their military industrial base has been destroyed? Can they
threaten the straight uPAR moose long term when their economy
depends on it? And he's so, I think there's there
are questions, but you're right that if you have a
more hard line regime and they feel like they have
no restrictions now, all the all the worst case scenarios
are on the tame.
Speaker 1 (34:54):
So last point I make. So it was really impressed
by this diplomat who was imprisoned in Iran, and he said,
you need to understand that death is a reward. So
the more people you kill, the more people that are
going to become martyred. It's a culture of death. We're
probably gonna have to end on something a little more pleasant.
So this is Eric Caps. Stayin on with Millennial Brian.
(35:15):
We're being produced by Art Selby. The show is Thunderdome
and the organization is Rock the Camp. All right, final segment.
At some point we'll try to find something positive to
talk about, but just to get back to Iran for
a moment. And I don't know if our listeners understand.
The Middle East now has Israel invading Lebanon Hamas. Okay,
(35:40):
so we have a fifteen point peace plan with Hamas
that's not going to go anywhere. I mean, Hamas is
effectively back in control of half half a guys. Okay,
So again you win militarily lose politically. Syria. Israel is
a lot with the DRUS against the Syrian government. Egypt
(36:04):
is terrified that Hamas will wind up being in Egypt,
and it goes on and on. Afghanistan and Pakistan in
a war India always close to being in a war.
Out of all these, what is the hottest of the hotspots.
Speaker 2 (36:21):
Well, the hottest of hotspot is still because of the
implications I would say of Ron. But also I think
the hutis that we talked about the Hooties bombing Israel,
the Strait of Titan, which no one knows about because
everyone's heard about Harmus is where the UTIs were firing
drones to stop shipping containers during the Israel in Gaza war,
(36:44):
and that stopped I think in twenty twenty five after
a bombing campaigned by the United States, and then the
deal basically saying you can't do this otherwise will keep
taking out your leaders if they get involved. That that
could be even more devastating because now you have the
Strait of Titan, which is you to take pressure off
our moose also being shut down. That would cut off
the world's oil supply significantly, and I think we'd have
(37:07):
to move to different different strategies about how to deal
with even in America we produce a ton of oil.
The one thing I would say is China's hurt by
this more than people realize. And people would say, well,
doesn't make sense they're not involved because they get so
much of their oil from not just Iran but the
Gulf States. They don't know how exactly the place they
(37:28):
need the Golf States for the oil, they need Iran
for their oil, and their Asian partners in general need
the Middle Eastern oil. In fact, today Iran stopped two
Chinese ships that were going to distray of oar moose
and actually blocked them for coming in. So I think
there's a chance that China wants this to be resolved too,
otherwise they can deal with, at least for the energy part,
(37:49):
even worse fallout.
Speaker 1 (37:50):
Than But they were getting oil from Venezuela, so they've
lost two sources. Yeah, but they also get oil from Russia.
So if you're China and if you're Russia, because Russia
seems to be the big winner from this war, you
know that sanctions lifted on right, you know what they Hell,
by the way back to Russia and the Ukraine, what
(38:11):
are we four years into this? Every even more? Yeah,
and the Trump administration American military should have learned from that.
That was gonna be over in forty eight hours, and
that is a draw.
Speaker 2 (38:23):
That's a draw Ukraine right now, is actually doing slightly
better because they've they've adapted probably the best drone defection
strategy of using radars and jammers and then drone use
of strategy of using a series of spread out drones
so you can't actually pinpoint where they are, so rather
having a swarm come from one location which was being used,
(38:45):
they actually have like the movable locations where they use
a series. They have a swarm here, a small swarm here,
and they converge on a tops.
Speaker 1 (38:52):
Russia, we were talking about this yesterday. They need to
replenish troops at the rate of thirty to thirty five
thousand a month. Yes, so they've lost a million, Oh yes.
Speaker 2 (39:04):
Or I think maybe a little wonder but yes, you're right,
so and it's just crazy. The question is Ukraine's also
lost a lot, and maybe even more than we realize.
So they've both lost at least in the hundreds of
thousands of troops.
Speaker 1 (39:16):
Well, it hits Ukraine harder because they don't have.
Speaker 2 (39:19):
As a big a population. And then but it also
shows the difference, which is, you know, we're in conflicts.
If you think about let's say Againstan, I think it
was like a twelve hundred Americans were killed, which is
obviously horrible. Russia has a just a resistance to no
matter how many bodies come home, they just don't care.
And maybe it's the government, maybe it's because of history,
(39:42):
but I think that's still the worry for Ukraine, which is,
even though they've shown unbelievable bravery and technological innovation beyond
what anyone could have imagined, does Russia care because they
can just keep throwing people out.
Speaker 1 (39:54):
Before we get to something positive. Point out three things.
In the mineral race in Africa, we're losing out to
Russia and China. And so with a war raging now
in the Ukraine and in the Middle East, that also
means Russia is limited to where they can intervene. Yes.
And so the third point is, and we talked about
(40:15):
this earlier, is with all this going on, it almost
seems to me that China is not as gung ho
to invade Taiwan.
Speaker 2 (40:26):
Yeah, And I think what this show is because for
a vision of Taiwan, they'd have to cross that strait
there and then they have to stand and hold territory.
And what we're seeing with the asymmetric capabilities is one
getting across any waterways. It is just it's almost just
sitting duck. You're just going that if you have any
drone capabilities, that you can just drone and drone, drone
(40:46):
and two once you get on there. The urban warfare
now with drones favors the defender a ton, so territory
geography have favored defenders for the time. So you would
need a change to how you deal with drone war
fare and change how you deal with asymmetric capabilities.
Speaker 1 (41:03):
Well, at some point, you know, I don't know that
people are going to adapt. It's a mess. And right
now I think and I think people are realizing We've
always said this politics is about geology and geography, what
you have under the ground and where you're located. If
the Middle East had no oil, we're not having this discussion.
Speaker 2 (41:22):
Yeah, I mean different conversation, you know, think about Sudan.
Sou Dan has been a much more brutal more than anything,
but they don't export twenty percent of the world's oil.
So it's it's different conversations, I do think, And maybe
I'm being too hopeful. The Iran conflict could end if
China and the United States cut a deal and they
put pressure on it wrong, because that would be because
(41:44):
if China needs not just wrong, but the Gulf States
for oil, and Russia has their own problems right now.
I think long term they want they'd want to settle there.
Speaker 1 (41:54):
The problem is we have an administration that's uh precocious, hostile, insulting.
So we'll see, all right, So we got a couple
of minutes left back to something positive other than Iran
and Land. Minds are who do you see what in
the NC double as.
Speaker 3 (42:12):
I'm gonna say Arizona probably at this point they look good.
Speaker 2 (42:15):
They look good. Is michig So is Arizona? Michigan in
two with the three ones left?
Speaker 1 (42:20):
Correct? Yeah, you know I'm part of got knocked out
by the team that suffered an injury. Who is who
the teams that neither one of you mentioned, Michigan and Arizona.
Who do you think is the one that's the most dangerous,
Because what I'm seeing now is that the cream is
coming to the top. These the guy The teams that
are left are deep, they're big, they can go inside outside.
(42:45):
I think Illinois and Purdue are interesting.
Speaker 2 (42:49):
It also shows the Big Ten is the conference now
basketball and else changed that Illinois, especially I think Illino.
Illinois has definitely.
Speaker 1 (42:58):
Illinois beat Michigan in the Big Ten tournament.
Speaker 2 (43:00):
Yeah, and I feel like they have a shot at
anyone If you wind up against Duke, Arizona or Michigan,
I think that the best teams have to beat those
teams consistently, we'll have a real chance rather than just
one off game.
Speaker 1 (43:11):
So in the women's bracket, who do you guys pick?
Speaker 3 (43:15):
It's Yukon. Yeah, they're just I mean they're thirty six,
thirty seven and oh I think now, jeez.
Speaker 2 (43:20):
He's getting the recruits, he has the support. South Carolina
and Notre Dame I've heard are competitive, But you're right,
I think it's just one of those Yukon teams.
Speaker 1 (43:30):
How many years has he been there? Because in sports,
especially basketball, he has had a phenomenal run. And look
about four or five years ago, I was thinking, oh,
they're down there, but you have Connecticut. Now that's the
team I would, by the way, I feel as dangerous.
Speaker 3 (43:49):
In the men's side, Yeah, they're dangerous, but I do
feel like Duke will get by them. And I think
Duke will beat Illinois or Iowa and then losing the
championship game. As my expectation.
Speaker 1 (43:59):
All right, So just going back to the women's bracket,
it looks like Connecticut.
Speaker 3 (44:04):
Is they play Notre Dame tomorrow and Notre Dame is
playing really well. And Notre Dame used to be a
big rival for Yukon when they were in the Big East,
So I feel like Notre Dame won't be intimidated and
they might be able to give them a good punch
in them af tomorrow. But I still think you connill
probably win.
Speaker 1 (44:21):
Is Notre Dame not in the Big East.
Speaker 3 (44:22):
No, Notre Dame's in the ACC.
Speaker 2 (44:24):
Now everything's gonna move. Notre Dame does have arguably the
best player in the country.
Speaker 3 (44:29):
Yeah, and Hidogo Yeah, so.
Speaker 2 (44:31):
And that list. If you have a great game and
other people step up, that can happen.
Speaker 1 (44:35):
But you know, all right, quick, not how much ty
do we have?
Speaker 3 (44:38):
About a minute?
Speaker 1 (44:39):
All right? Is anybody ever going to catch Penn State wrestling?
I mean, it looks like Oklahoma State's got some good
young guys.
Speaker 2 (44:48):
You have to catch them on like a transition here
where they're moving their seniors out and they're bringing new
guys in now, let's say, or as good as the
new guys they have now and Oklahoma State has to
keep or Ohio or some one of these just to
keep it.
Speaker 1 (44:59):
For Oklahoma's like Penn State West they have David tayl Or.
They got a lot of Penn State recruits going there.
Any final comments.
Speaker 3 (45:07):
Are Hershey Bears hockey tonight. Bears are in Allantown. You
can hear that game on her sister station at six
thirty five tonight.
Speaker 1 (45:14):
I'll be producing, all right, that sounds good.
Speaker 2 (45:17):
Millennial, I would say, I enjoy the weekend. Drive safe.
Speaker 1 (45:21):
Oh no, man, it's all basketball. It's all basketball for
the next two days and hockey and hockey. Yes, did
Penn State win in the Frozen Four?
Speaker 3 (45:29):
No, they lost three to one last night.
Speaker 1 (45:31):
Okay, all right, so look, we I don't know if
we're going to be back in two weeks, but we'll
see you when we come back. And shlom y'all.