August 12, 2026 • 37 mins
Jake and John are back covering a whole host of topics and give out some big bold predictions for the 2026 season! You'll want to hear what our analysts have to say about Caleb Williams' ceiling in Chicago, George Kittle's place in the tight end hierarchy, Alec Pierce's recovery time with the Colts and much more! The preseason is already underway, so catch the latest info to dominate your drafts in the coming days!
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Time now for Fantasy Football Weekly from iHeartRadio, your weekly
source for the nation's best fantasy speculation and advice.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
What's up everybody, Howdy, Hello, and a hio silver to
you another edition of the Fantasy Football Weekly off season
edition with your friend and faithful narrator John mcgay's the
same handle over on X my friend and yours, mister
Jake Trowbridge. Jake, another week in the books could only
mean another I think I've lost track. I had to
have tacked on another fifty drafts. How are you doing that?
Speaker 1 (00:34):
It's still absurd to me. I have to I have
to go back to that. And last week I asked
a couple of questions about your draft process, but I
got one more for you because it's somebody who does
so many drafts at this time of the year. Have
you felt like you've gotten away from the sort of
live in person feel of a draft, Like, do you
(00:54):
still like if you have a home league to have
like an old school draft board and to sort of
take things So? Are you so far past that now?
Speaker 2 (01:02):
No, that would be the one difference. The one thing
that makes it real are the people, the friends and
using draft stickers opposed to you know, this very cold
and automated process. But there are a lot of large
field tournaments going on right now. I do my own ranks,
I customize them, and the best way to test him
is to do just that. I battle test him and
(01:22):
lay out automated ranks, and I kind of you know,
you're running them all the time, and there's different sites
to play on at different price points. See, I'm pretty
active in the draft streets. You'll see me on DraftKings
and Underdog, of course, Drafters Fantasy. I'm really a little
bit of everywhere. When you see that moving avg avatar,
you know that's me.
Speaker 1 (01:41):
That's that's good. I just didn't know if you've gotten
so far removed that you can't even enjoy some simple
trash talk or looking a league made in the eye
as you steal their soul and their pick. At the
same time, I wasn't sure.
Speaker 2 (01:52):
No, no, no. The the redrafting takes up so much time.
I'm getting ready to make that transfer over. We might
even talk about that at some point, and it can
be difficult to me having the best bawl brain on
so firmly for so long, having to make that transfer
to redraft I'd rather focus my redraft into fewer leagues
(02:12):
with higher stakes because there's so much time that goes
into it. I spend a lot of time on these leagues,
which is also why I love Best Ball so much.
Having two young kids, it's easy to manage one hundred
teams because there's no management. So let's get into the
News and Notes, which is pushing hot and heavy. We've
got a little kind of program shift which I want
to have tip before. Instead of turning this into a
straight news desk, We're going to try and segment into
(02:33):
the show into News and Notes how it affects ADP
in the drafting landscape, which matters a ton right now right,
keeping ADP fresh, staying in front of it as they change,
and I'm doing more of a traditional maybe fantasy episode today.
We're going to do some bold predictions. Each of us
have a pair of them. Man, one of yours I
really like, but I want to push up against. I
guess we'll cross that bridge where you get there, all right. First,
(02:54):
across the news thatest today was Josh Jacobsy has been
a running theme, but now it's not just off field
stuff popped up DNP with a groin again. The only
quote is not believed to be anything serious. I saw
the video. He doesn't look great, but I already had
to take an off season l from elak neighbors and
judging him with that softball gait that he was showing
(03:16):
off in air quotes. What do you think about Josh
jacobs potential is there? Are you buying the dip? There's
a threat in Marshawn Lloyd. How are you tackling Josh
Jacobs for the Packers?
Speaker 1 (03:25):
John, It's just another thing against him. If this was it,
if this was a one off and oh Josh Jacobs
popped up with a little injury, whatever, we can navigate
that we shouldn't over analyze something like that that's not
expected to be a long term injury. But it's another
thing on top of so many other things that are
already going against Josh Jacobs. There's the offs field stuff.
(03:47):
There's the crazy big workload from last year and his
whole career frankly, which seemed to start affecting him last year.
There is the addition or the health at least of
Marshawn Lloyd. There's just a lot of factors that I
don't like. For Jacobs, so just pushing me even further
away from him.
Speaker 2 (04:03):
Yeah, I'm usually making the price based argument. That's been
my issue. Jacobs is still firmly inside the top three rounds.
He's carrying a thirty ADP. That's consensus. I was using
Fantasy pros NB. Fantasy Life also is a good page there.
All could be pretty similar regardless. Josh Jacobs not really
getting much of a discount. You could see why, but
it really has to do with a ton of volume.
(04:26):
You know, he had almost sixteen rushes a game, and
you're getting almost a half a Fantasy point per snap
because he's so prevalent near the goal line, right Jordan
will not really kind of running it in. That's all
his game, but he never really had a real threat.
The drum beats for Lloyd are really high. So I've
been staying away from Jacobs. I think I need to
see it. You mentioned it every kind of news slash note.
(04:48):
It's just another ding, it's another red flag, but it's
not being reflected in the price. So where would he
have to go maybe in the fourth round. Would you
be willing to snap or do you think you're out?
Speaker 1 (04:59):
I mean I was just out I've been out on
Josh Jacobs. I can't see myself getting back in if
he's in there in like the twelfth round. Maybe I'll
hold my nose and think about it. It feels weird
to say as a Packers fan, but I know I'm
just entirely out on the guy.
Speaker 2 (05:12):
Yeah, I would definitely second that. Just four yards per attempt,
just over three yards I have to contact per attempt.
We're starting to see a lack of explosivity, and that's
normally the sign of the aging running back. His age
might not be so much on the calendar so much
as the touches. This guy is always good for so
many touches. Next up it is camp hype superstar Luther
(05:36):
Burden for the Bears. His ADP is already starting to
sink pretty fast, though it appears to have found the
floor in the mid fifties. We have a confirmed growing strain.
He's expected to miss a full month. They are expecting
week one. Now. He did play This isn't a rookie.
He's familiar with the playbook. The one thing that Burden
himself mentioned was timing Johnson's off. He's very much predicated
(06:01):
on timing. Being in the right spot, which Burden attributes
his success to repetitions. Where are you on Burden. I'm
not out. I'm still buying. But the dip I wish
it was a little bit dippier.
Speaker 1 (06:12):
Maybe it's it's dippy, but it's not like dippy egg
dippy you know where that yolk is so soft you
can go ahead and dip a slice of toast in it.
It's not getting there yet. Maybe it will eventually, John,
Like if if we just haven't had enough time for
sort of the typical drafters to get back in and
push the ADP down, you know, maybe it don't happen.
(06:33):
Because I was out on Luther Burden previously. I just
felt like his cost was a little too presumptive. We
were it's going to tie into something I'm going to
talk about later, but I felt like we were overrating
Luthor Burden and his potential impact on the offense. So
this might actually get it down to a spot where
I'm comfortable drafting him because I don't mind that he
(06:54):
is missing this time. Right now. I'd rather be now,
certainly than at the beginning of the season. If he's healthy,
For one, I do have some confidence that he'll be
targeted heavily, so we'll see.
Speaker 2 (07:04):
Yeah, Burnen's so wildly efficient, which is the harder thing
to replicate. They did vacate some targets with more but
twenty five percent target per out, two point seven yards
per out, most eleven yards per target, I mean, just
crazy seven point two yards after the catch per reception.
We know that's the strength of his game, and Johnson's
very good at dalling it up, which is why I'm
(07:25):
not gonna get away from it. But again, yeah, I
wish the I wish the dip was a little more silky.
Let's say, next one up is a player both you
and I were drafting kind of kind of stings the
nostrils a little bit. Our guy, Makay Lemon for the Eagles.
At this point, the quote is, at this point, it's
fair to doubt mkayle Lemon will start early in the season.
(07:45):
For their beat reports, he's missed half of spring practices,
half of training camp due to that hamstring injury. You know,
we mentioned it happening at the same time as Devada.
The Smith injury doesn't seem like a big deal. He's fine.
Not so much for Lemon. What do you think Jake
Lemon or lemonee.
Speaker 1 (08:03):
Ugh, I was such a lemonhead. I've been a big
Mackai Lemon truther. The thing the context I should say
with this is it's not that they're projecting that he
won't be available week one. It's simply that he's missed
so much time this offseason as a rookie that they
don't feel comfortable trotting him out there as one of
the lead guys, which I understand and that makes sense.
(08:26):
The hope is that the talent is still so prevalent
the draft capital so high from the Eagles, that he
does work his way to the center of the offense
very quickly once he sort of gets some game action.
But if you're drafting him right now, you can't feel
confident that you're going to want to start him in
the first what I don't know, four to five weeks, Like,
(08:47):
if you see it right away in week one, you'll
be shocked. Even week two, I don't think you'd want
to get him in your lineup just based on some
of these comments, and maybe it was a fluke, So
it's something that you'll have to see him produce fairly
routinely before you get him into your life or I would.
So I'm staying away for right now.
Speaker 2 (09:04):
Ar audible sigh audible side Jake, who really kills when
one of your guys pops up on these reports? And
like I mentioned, the rookie not having that benefit of
continuity and repetitions under the belt where it's not just
timing here, it is establishing that connection with Hurts. They're
(09:26):
also going through a lot of changes in Philadelphia. I
think the big winner here has got to be Dontavian Wicks.
He hasn't really moved up yet. I guess people not
really buying it. I was digging into the spreadsheet. I
get it, There's not a ton there. I mean, he
was very good at getting first downs. He got a
first out every eleven routes, which is very good. He
was over eleven are yards per target. But other than that,
(09:48):
just not a ton there. I guess I just revamped
by twenty twenty six spreadsheets. You could tell because I
separated man and zone. I really wanted to get a
better idea of where these players were excelling, so I
would have to maybe back up to bring struggle on
Wicks a little bit. Twenty nine target per rate against
man almost two yards per rout and a very good
(10:09):
EPA with an extremely good success rate. So if you
know Smith is getting a lot of attention and Wix
looks like he's gonna be manned up on the outside,
he could still be a threat. I love him as
a late round pick just in case, worst case scenario,
something happens with Lemon and there's a bit of a setback.
Let's say you're getting a he's gonna be every down receiver.
(10:30):
It looks like he might be in every down receiver
for the first month anyway, more of a redraft pick
right now, I think Wix is a wonderful, you know,
back end pick or possible flex play early in the
season while no one is looking his direction. Next up.
It was one of my guys early. But it's also
I don't invite injuries. Alec Pearce. When we saw the
ankle pop up, then it was he had a second shot.
(10:53):
Oh wait, he didn't have a second shot. And then
I thought, wait, I don't know which is better or not,
Which is better to have the shot or the shot.
What do you think about Pierce right now? There's a
lot of uncertainty there for a guy who got a
tremendous contract to not be starting right away.
Speaker 1 (11:07):
Just tell us what's gonna happen? Why do we have
to keep doing this? Don't I don't like it. I
don't feel confident in Alex, but I've had my own
Alec Pierce woes already. I came into this with a
little bit of bias because I just didn't believe the
big contract was going to be enough to get him
consistent targets. Anyways, I still thought he would be low target,
(11:29):
high efficiency. So now with this injury that just keeps
on going. What's the efficiency going to look like? For
a guy who relies entirely on efficiency? I don't like it.
For Pierce. People are pivoting towards Josh Downs, which I
completely understand. I myself, this is just pumping Tyler Warren
further and further up my draft ranks because I was
(11:50):
already flirting. I felt like Colston Lovelin was getting all
of the offseason love for these tight ends, and I
thought Tyler Warren should be in that conversation. I might
flip flop and put Warren above Loveland at this point.
Speaker 2 (12:03):
Yeah, well, okay, now we're jumping the shark you had
me pushing war and up, I'd put him right behind that.
Loved what happened to be my guy. Not to bury
the lead for later, but he's really one of my guys.
I think I make a tremendous impact. Regardless all kidding aside,
I don't think you're that far off piece. Tyler Warren
is a freak of nature. He is so good. And
(12:23):
I think we allowed the Daniel Jones injury and the
way the Colts just completely, you know, took that nose
dive and flound it at the end of the season.
But I think we're just punishing everybody, and maybe we shouldn't.
He was a rookie at my dominy, just absolutely dominating.
He's also part of the goal line package. He's not
gonna get all the carries from JT, but he's part
(12:45):
of that package. The Chiefs became very popular for that,
those fake shifty handoffs. We don't know if their passes,
they keep changing in the back. It was a pass,
it was a reception, it wasn't it was a run.
But that really works. You get the ball in the
hands of a play. I think Warren is really undervalued
right now. I've actually been doing some two tight end
sets in those big tournaments, trying to be a little
(13:06):
bit unique. As far as Pierce goes, I would push
back just one thing. I don't want to argue about
the efficiency. He was highly efficient. However, I think the
way they used him is one of the ways to
be sustainable through efficiency. And he's so very good at
winning in the outer levels in the play action game,
so that was what they brought him back for the
(13:27):
threat of Jones plus Taylor to run in the backfield
opens up any defense that is going to allow peers
who I don't think it's enough credit, But again, I
don't think you're that far off. Piece all right, Next
up Isaiah P. Checko for the Lion, somebody I really
wasn't drafting anyway. He's now sunk like an absolute stone.
I was joking on Twitter, I'm moving Jamior Gibbs up
(13:47):
to the negative one to oh one. I'm now drafting
Gibbs before if I have the first pick, I'm drafting
him before I walk into the room because as the
only place left to go. Picchecko spring to mcl Campbell,
who can be a bit overly optimistic in my opinion
that I like I would run through a wall for him,
But I don't know if I'm buying. And he said
I'll be ready for the opener. I don't know if
I like Pacheco in the first place. Now he's a
(14:08):
spring knee. What do you think about Pacheco? Would you
be buying the dip here? He's like into the one fifties?
Speaker 1 (14:14):
Now, Well, you and I were talking about this before
we started recording, that there is a point where these
running backs in the late rounds get so groady, where
you're drafting names that you're like, I can't even believe
he's still in the league, let alone on this draft list.
So there's a world, yeah, where Pachecko is a very
very late round running back makes sense if you're in
(14:36):
a super deep league or something. In general, No, though,
it's still gonna be Jamir Gibbs. I don't think there's
going to be a true number two in this backfield
to worry about for our drafting purposes.
Speaker 2 (14:47):
Interesting, you kind of took the next question, where do
you think they go somebody else that's to touch the ball?
I mean that's just a fact of life here now,
So only Vaki I've heard that name get mentioned but
he's banged up all so the other names on the roster, Jake,
I'm not gonna lie. I never do. I'm very transparent.
I don't know who these people are. Jacob Sailors, Raheem Blacksheer,
(15:09):
I know that name. Jabari Small I if anybody should
we know about You're a lot more plugged into the
college stuff than I am. He've done a really great
job actually so far. And the little nuggets we've gotten
about these college players. I think you've been in front
of the market. Do any of those guys warn't a
twentieth rounder?
Speaker 1 (15:26):
Maybe I no, No, I don't want to know. D me,
I would say. The only name that I even really
know is Raheem Blackshear from his time with the Panthers,
but he was more of a special teams guy then.
He had occasional dips and running back. It wouldn't shock
me if we get to a point where Pacheco isn't
going to be available or healthy, that they take a
(15:46):
quick dip into the free agency market. Because there are
some interesting veteran names that are still out there, and
Naji Harris is still lingering around. I thought he might
get scooped up, So I just don't know if the
guy's on the roster yet, if they're gonna rely on
somebody else.
Speaker 2 (15:59):
Yeah, James Connor has been an interesting game, popping up
in like trade talks. I think they're telegraphed that he
could probably be had cheap and that would be a
perfect fit. I was actually just doing a little bit
of research. He popped in a lot of areas. I
know his best seasons James Connor are firmly in the
rearview mirror, but for a backup he could be interesting.
I say that because he's starting to get drafted. I'm
(16:21):
not sure so much it's for Arizona. I don't know
how impact will Whip be for them, though they're talking
them up. That really could be a trade bait thing anyway,
very last name, and I want to tell you I'm
really digging this kind of format shift before we get
into the fantasy stuff. That was a really good flow.
Hopefully everyone is in joying that last one is George
Kittle Superstation five G Wave seventeen George Kittle won. Looks
(16:46):
like we're now at a quote unquote high level of
confidence at this point that George Kittle will play Week one.
I saw some of those tapes. He's moving around unimpeded,
with no braces or anything. He was cutting and jumping.
They said he looks ready to go. So the reason
I mentioned that, I'm not sure if everyone is keen
to this Week one is an international game, and a
(17:06):
lot of people, like myself, we're definitely not anticipating that
he needed to trip. It just seemed like too much hassle,
right for somebody that might play, might be liminated, might
not play. Why drag him literally halfway across the globe
to play a game of football. If he's gonna play
Week one, I'm feeling pretty confident about him where he's
going right that game is in Melbourne. Thanks Robbie Ash.
(17:29):
There's very few tight ends with the weekly ceiling of
George Kittle, So poke this about Kittle, where you think
that ceiling peak may have moved to, and whether or
not you're interested at him at ADP one hundred, he
definitely sticks out at that point from a Spike week perspective.
Speaker 1 (17:44):
Yeah, I mean, George Kittle has been one of the
most consistent elite fantasy producers. Maybe not every single week,
but the highs are extremely high. For George Kittle, and
he's been known to play through all this stuff. That's
why I've been saying all offseason, it's not gonna surprised
me if both George Kittle and Tucker Craft are suiting
up week one, because they just there are those types
(18:05):
of dudes. Kittle especially is the what is it the
Black Night from Monty Python. He keeps getting limbs chopped off,
and he keeps pretending like it's no big deal and
he's gonna play through it anyways. So they're just flesh
runs for George Kittle at this point, and I think
that as long as he says he's gonna be out there,
we can believe him because he's gonna push for it.
(18:27):
I don't know that I'm ready to start him in
week one, like I'll draft him. I think week one
I want to have just a short term contingency plan
just in case, But after that I'm along for the ride.
Speaker 2 (18:37):
Yeah, you absolutely should. I think that's a really great point.
Draft Kittle and then maybe wait it, maybe make like
a week zero ad at tight end to figure it out.
I would even argue with Fifth saying he's gonna play
full time. I think you could play him again. He's
just so efficient. Last year there was even a little
bit of volume. He had more than six targets a game,
twenty four percent target for round, almost two in a
(18:59):
quarter yards route first down every seven and a half routes,
which is fantastic. He catches everything that's near him. He
beats man. He's an absolute zone killer. Twenty four percent
team target share against his own two and a half
yards per route. I mean, incredible success rate, big time EPA.
The Niners know where their bread is buttered against his zone,
(19:20):
and it's George Kittle. If you're playing PPR especially, he's
a He's a really big time target for me again.
Now I was, I was also so into Party. I'm
kind of kicking myself in my behind because I wasn't
pairing Kiddle with Party because I was worried. I thought
maybe Purty, you know, he could stand alone. If I
would have been this confident now as I was then,
(19:41):
ah man, I probably have a lot more Kiddle. But
the price hasn't really moved. I think we can get
with him. All right, Let's take a real quick break,
shuffle the papers. I'm gonna get my redraft hat on
and we'll do some Bowl projections and we're back. All right, Jake,
that's been a little bit too much of me. I
think litle bit of me can be too much sometimes.
(20:01):
What did you lead us off in your first prediction?
It was one I mentioned I was very much in
fever of and I really hope this happens. Take it away,
all right.
Speaker 1 (20:10):
So I'm gonna start with something positive here, John, I
want to lead in with positivity, which I guess means
I'm gonna end with negativity. So I don't actually know
if the order of this stands and if you're gonna
still be behind this, but I think that Garrett Wilson
is going to have himself a career year and land
in the top eight of all wide receivers. Because John,
(20:33):
I don't like to speak in hyperbole, okay, So I'm
just gonna say this, Garrett Wilson is the most underappreciated
wide receiver in the history of this planet and fantasy football.
There no hyperbolely spoken. Few Thank you, thank you. That
was very brave of me to say. I do think
(20:54):
if we're just looking at Garrett Wilson on the draft board,
he's going in the fourth round or so right now
in redraft leagues and he's around these names where you
can make the case for those guys over him, But
a lot of these guys being drafted around him don't
have his proven track record of production three straight thousand
yard seasons to start off his career, despite you know,
(21:15):
catching passes from a who's who of why them at quarterback,
which Zach Wilson and Mike White and Trevor Simeon and
Tim Boyle and late stage Aaron Rodgers coming off of Achilles,
Tiar and Taren You know, last year with Justin Fields,
it was a short amount of time, but people were
down on Wilson because Justin Fields, how was he going
(21:36):
to keep him fantasy viable? And here he is looking like,
I think, like the wide receiver five, wide receiver six
in his healthy games that he was playing. And now
he gets Geno Smith, who I would argue, strictly for fantasy,
John not looking at real life, but strictly for fantasy,
might just be the best quarterback that he's ever played
with in his career. And he's hyping him up. Gino
(21:58):
Smith has been talking about him a lot offseason. I
think his first quote about the guy was. It's my
job to get him the ball and get him the
ball early. And that is music to my ears and
anybody else who believes in the talent of Garrett Wilson,
Because I get that they added some guys right in
the draft. They add Omar Cooper Junior, they add Kenyon Sadiq.
(22:19):
He's kind of had his own health stuff that we've
talked about. But I just think there's no Lamar Jackson
walking through that door, folks for the Jets. So you're
not going to get better than Geno Smith right now,
is my point. But it's very much good enough, and
I think he should be drafted higher.
Speaker 2 (22:35):
Yeah, I want to agree with a few of those points.
Won the quarterback play the way you put it is funny.
I've heard it's a who's who of who who's who? Yeah,
just absolute nobody's And I've been taking flack for asserting
that I thought Gino Smith was a below average quarterback. Like,
imagine setting the bar that low, and still it's not
(22:57):
being enough to satisfy just about anybody. Gino's always run
good EPA numbers. Again, good enough, good enough, I don't know,
it's whatever. It's always in vogue to kind of dog
pile the Jets, which I totally get. Wilson just a
tremendous volume based play. Also a huge man beater man
(23:18):
two and a half yards were out versus Man, almost
a full point added per target against Man with a
sixteen percent success rate. Again with those guys throwing to
the ball. He is a super He is a superstar.
Ban's four or tenth overall pick at OSU. He's he
is legit hashtag good at football and a very good
example of how environment can kind of drag you down.
(23:39):
It's not gonna take much. Last point to the additions,
The addition of ad Ni Mitchell is a benefit to
Garrett Wilson. It's a part of the field that now
must be defended. We spoke about this again. I'm not
trying to get too bullish on Gino, but where he's
always been good is deep and outside the hashmarks, which
is where ad Ni Mitchell is a little he hid
(24:00):
killer out there. He is very very good out there.
So even if you're in disagreement that he's some world eater,
you have to defend all those blades of grass out
there thirty yards deep. That was not at all in
anyone's playbook. Defensively, last season, nobody thought for a second
about defending thirty yards off the line of scrimmage against
the Jets. So I love this for Wilson. Where he's going,
(24:22):
I think his criminal and he is a smash in
the fourth round. You may even get some home leagues
where he goes to the fifth. Yeah, now let's back
into mind. You already kind of fired astray at him.
It's mister Colston Lovelin, who I have is my tight
end one. I mean, I feel like we saw a
ton of it. It started with the one game missed
(24:45):
and Loveland had a tremendous breakout and I think that
was Week nine, and then when the chips were down,
and this is all through just this long standing drum
beat from Johnson and how Loveland was the offseason target
do Twothy targets for him. He was the first pick
he ever made. He had special plans for him online.
Off the ball was gonna be his yack guy, a
(25:07):
catcher release guy. We saw all of that, and it
really manifested in the last four games, including the playoffs,
where I know it's a small sample, and if that's
the argument, I get it. I'm pushing back that's baked
into the price. We're not paying second round McBride price.
I'm getting back end of the fourth. Sometimes these numbers
are absolutely crazy. I mean, he's running thirty five routes
(25:31):
a game, eleven and a half targets a game, eight
receptions for ninety three yards. He's an all per game
thirty three point three percent target per route, almost two
and three quarter yards per route, eight yards per target,
eleven a day after catch. Gosh, he was just fantastic,
almost one hundred air yards per game. He caught everything
that went his way. Again, he played in line, beating man,
(25:54):
beating zone, working the slot and an end zone target.
And now Luther Burden, you know, was banged end to
vacated targets with DJ Moore. All that tells me I
am so so bullish on the freak that is Colston Loveland.
Just tell us where I miss j No. John.
Speaker 1 (26:10):
I want to be very very clear about something, John.
The shot fired at Colston Loveland is simply is simply
that Tyler Warren is also extremely good, and I don't
want people to forget about that. That is not at
all to disparage Colston Loveland who I actually think is
the only piece of this Bears offense that I really
am confident in. Now, I don't have him as my
(26:32):
tight end one, just because I want to give some
respect to Brock Bauers. Frey McBride, I think still has
a case, though it is fading a little bit every week.
I think it's the tight end one. And again, I
love me some Tyler Warren. It's There's a lot about
this Bears offense that I'm going to talk about shortly,
but the one thing I will always say positively is
(26:53):
that Colston Loveland looks like an actual beast when he
plays football, and his turch victory never stopped once it
started going up. You see guys in their first season
have splashes, they have little stretches, little streaks where they
look really really good, and then they kind of fade
or fade in and out. That wasn't the case for
(27:14):
Colston Loveland. So I like it. If I'm going to
bother drafting a tight end very early, that's my cutoff
is Colston Loveland. And then you know, We've talked about
some mid and late range tight end targets as well.
But I love Coast and love it don't you try
to paint me into a corner against Colston Loveland.
Speaker 2 (27:34):
Yeah, and to make a counter to my own point
price adjusted, if you're getting worn in the sixth, that
could be a league winner, you know, he could be everything.
Next up is your your next Bowl call? Wh Why
don't you take it away? When I saw this again,
it it kind of hurt me because it was almost
against mine. But I think you're gonna say that it
(27:57):
might it might not right, Just take it away and
I'll go for there.
Speaker 1 (28:02):
Well, we're already talking about the Bears, so let me
continue to talk about the Bears, and I will try
to do this that the listeners cannot see this. But
this is me taking off my Packers fandom hat and
he's setting it. Yeah, and I'm throwing it off to
the side. I'm melting the cheese just for this segment,
so that you know I'm coming in without bias. But
(28:24):
I expect Caleb Williams to have a very down season,
and in fact, I think he falls outside of the
top twelve fantasy quarterbacks. I know that is shocking to hear.
People are throwing tomatoes at their phones right now, but
let me just get this out last year, Caleb Williams.
He's QB six overall in fantasy, QB nine in points
per game, which is important little asterisk there, But I
(28:47):
think it's a bit of a mirage of what we
saw because what we saw last year, the good stuff
that he had going for and was this. He had
opening drive magic, he had fourth quarter heroics, he had
big spectacular downfield plays and that's all good stuff and
that presents a very high ceiling for a fantasy quarterback,
which he achieved last year. But it's this other stuff.
(29:10):
It's the smaller stuff that really worries me with him.
I keep coming back to the stats. So I apologize
to anybody if you've heard this a million times already,
But among all quarterbacks who threw the ball at least
two hundred times last year and this includes the postseason,
Caleb Williams was second from the bottom in completion percentage.
He was only above Shador Sanders. His percentage of on
(29:31):
target throws was also second worst, better than only JJ McCarthy.
Those are not the names you want to surround yourself
with if people should have confidence in you. So Caleb's numbers,
you can say that they were bad because of how
often and how aggressively he was throwing downfield. I get
that those completions are harder to make, but if he
(29:54):
doesn't improve some of the other basic stuff, you cannot
bank on those plays being there. Because the guy got
a lot of those extra opportunities to make the big
plays because the Bears had a ball hawking defense, they
led the league in takeaways, They kept giving him more
chances to do what he didn't do previously. They also
had one of the easiest strengths of schedule in the NFL,
(30:15):
for what that's worth. So if the good fortune runs
out for Caleb John then is going to be tough,
I think for fantasy consistency, because he does not have
that Lamar Jackson, that Josh Allen level of rushing upside
to make up for this stuff. He's closer to Baker
Mayfield frankly in terms of rushing upside. And you know,
if you're also expecting some bounceback from guys who finished
(30:39):
poorly last year, like Justin Herbert, like Joe Burrow, like
Jayden Daniels. Heck, even Daniel Jones that we talked about
was very good when he was healthy. If you're expecting
those guys to come up. I think it's just easy
enough to say Caleb needs to get a lot positively,
you know, in terms of growth. It can't all be
going to Colston Loveland to your point and hoping for
(31:02):
the best.
Speaker 2 (31:03):
Yeah, when your off target rate is next to Shador
and JJ nine, you're doing something wrong. There are definitely
holes in this profile. And we were talking about this
how quarterback pricing has been very dependent on the draft room.
And I don't mean that in the general theoretical sense.
I mean where the pass catcher is, people are attaching
(31:25):
the quarterback. So if a guy with Burden and Loveland
was in front of you, then Caleb Williams was going
first in that. And I think he was leading the
ADP quarterback pack, if I'm saying that right, because he
had two pass catchers going before him, And I don't
think it was based on like his pure kind of
(31:45):
talent and fantasy expectations. And I actually pushed him back
in my ranks for a lot of what you're talking
about here. He took entirely too long to throw all
so I kind of worry about that. He had one
of the worst, if not the I it is time
to throw. He there's Shadoor Sanders again, only person with
a worse time to throw than Caleb wash your door,
(32:09):
which is not what you're looking for at all. It
was good to see cut down on the sacks, which
we love, but he doesn't really throw outside. Yeah, I
don't know. I totally get what you're saying here. A
lot of this feels very much faith based on the
you know, like the Johnson creativity, which we're gonna put
your stock in one guy. It's probably him, right, But
(32:32):
I do think the cart may be in front of
the horse for Caleb. I mean, we can't be relying
on buzzer beating game winning throws off your back foot
to the back of the end zone, which I happened
for than once. It's very hard to rely on those
kind of plays. All right now, how about mine? I'm
gonna go with a little more positivity of Fronny Human.
You're talking about that before, and I'm thinking, this is
(32:54):
fantasy football. There's no one there's no happiness here. You've
come to the You've come to the wrong place, my friend.
All right, I'm going with z Flowers, who I am
just over the moon for. I've got him as a
top five wide receiver, and it's it's almost one of
those things. I'm like, you're actually gonna make me like
explain this. I mean, great quarterback, volume guy, A new
(33:20):
coordinator in Decklen Doyle we're really excited about, who has
been mentioning him by name, and the spreadsheet just screaming,
you know, every down player. He had a ninety six
percent ral participation rate, earned one hundred and eighteen targets
for over twelve hundred yards. Of course, the hang up
is the touchdowns, which is not something we should be
(33:40):
focusing on, yet that seems to be carrying the price
where Flowers had more. He averaged over a half of
a red zone target per game for the year, just
over a quarter of an end zone target. These are
not great, but it's not like they're ignoring him. I
(34:01):
just think the touchdown based analysis is a little too
variant to be hanging our hats on. And then all
the trammings we love. Twenty five percent target per route,
over two and a half yards per route, over ten
yards per target. I mean, he beats man, he beats zone.
He gets all the lay up stuff underneath. You know,
he's a slot dominator with Yak and again, some of
(34:25):
these stats include missing Lamar, who's healthy right now. I'm
not trying to predict injuries. Give me Zay Flowers where
he's going. Especially again right Jake, we'd like to give
advice that people could actually deploy. And if I'm telling
you I'm drafting running backs early, man, I really am.
Third round Za feels like I'm getting a second round
(34:46):
wide receiver as my wide receiver one, and I get
to fill in those critical running back spots. Talk to
me about Zay Flowers and maybe if my expectations are
a little misplaced.
Speaker 1 (34:56):
I don't think so. I love Zay Flowers this year.
To your point about if you want to start your
draft with two running backs or a running back in
one of these tight ends that we're hyping up, if
you can get Zay Flowers and a Mecca Buca and
Garrett Wilson, Like, if you can get that trio in
rounds three through five, which is actually plausible depending on
where you're drafting from, that's a heck of a way
(35:17):
to build out your roster. And to your point about
the touchdowns, there should never be an expectation unless you
are like DeVante Adams that you're gonna have X amount
of opportunities every year at touchdowns and you're a shoe
in for double digits at wide receiver. Remember how many
years we hoped and prayed and kind of banked on
(35:41):
the fact that Julio Jones eventually has to score more
than like three touchdowns in a season, and it was
like eight years in a row. He was the exception
that proves the rule where Okay, yes, he continually gets
low touchdowns year after year, but he grew positive. Regression
should have caught up to him at some point, as
it did literally every other wide receiver. So I'm not
(36:02):
worried about Jay Flowers. And you mentioned the Declan Doyle thing.
I just have to point it out. Coming over from
the Bears, I do think that's a big positive for
the throwing game in general in Baltimore. And I know
there's been some hype about the rookie wide receiver there,
Jacobe Lane. There's no worry to me that he's gonna
eat into Jay Flowers. If anything, it's gonna be like
(36:25):
you mentioned with ad n I Wilson or ad Ni
Mitchell and Garrett Wilson. That's just something that should help
with the pressure on Zay Flowers. So I love the call.
Speaker 2 (36:35):
Yeah, I find myself in that camp of thought, and
it gets a lot of pushback. What about this guy?
Jamar Chas and t Higgins confeased? To me, it's not
about a number of stars. It's about the consolidation in
the offense. I feel like Baltimore is pretty consolidated. In fact,
they may have been overly consolidated. I don't want too
(36:56):
much attention. We don't want Zay Flowers getting bracket coverage.
You know, that's that's overdoing it. We don't want that.
We want to threat again with those deeper blades of grass.
It'll be yet to be seeing what we have in
Mark Andrew. So I'm glad to see another secondary weapon
added to the Ravens. All right, Jae, that was awesome.
I think that might have been the best episode of
the season. What's gonna do it for us? Here today?
(37:17):
A little bit news, you know, it's a little bit
of bold predictions. We'll be back next week. We have
a little bit more of the same, but a different
topic at the back end. So from John and Jake
and producer Robbie, we really do appreciate you for listening.
Thanks again, and everyone have a wonderful weekend.
Time now for Fantasy Football Weekly from iHeartRadio, your weekly
source for the nation's best fantasy speculation and advice.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
What's up everybody, Howdy, Hello, and a hio silver to
you another edition of the Fantasy Football Weekly off season
edition with your friend and faithful narrator John mcgay's the
same handle over on X my friend and yours, mister
Jake Trowbridge. Jake, another week in the books could only
mean another I think I've lost track. I had to
have tacked on another fifty drafts. How are you doing that?
Speaker 1 (00:34):
It's still absurd to me. I have to I have
to go back to that. And last week I asked
a couple of questions about your draft process, but I
got one more for you because it's somebody who does
so many drafts at this time of the year. Have
you felt like you've gotten away from the sort of
live in person feel of a draft, Like, do you
(00:54):
still like if you have a home league to have
like an old school draft board and to sort of
take things So? Are you so far past that now?
Speaker 2 (01:02):
No, that would be the one difference. The one thing
that makes it real are the people, the friends and
using draft stickers opposed to you know, this very cold
and automated process. But there are a lot of large
field tournaments going on right now. I do my own ranks,
I customize them, and the best way to test him
is to do just that. I battle test him and
(01:22):
lay out automated ranks, and I kind of you know,
you're running them all the time, and there's different sites
to play on at different price points. See, I'm pretty
active in the draft streets. You'll see me on DraftKings
and Underdog, of course, Drafters Fantasy. I'm really a little
bit of everywhere. When you see that moving avg avatar,
you know that's me.
Speaker 1 (01:41):
That's that's good. I just didn't know if you've gotten
so far removed that you can't even enjoy some simple
trash talk or looking a league made in the eye
as you steal their soul and their pick. At the
same time, I wasn't sure.
Speaker 2 (01:52):
No, no, no. The the redrafting takes up so much time.
I'm getting ready to make that transfer over. We might
even talk about that at some point, and it can
be difficult to me having the best bawl brain on
so firmly for so long, having to make that transfer
to redraft I'd rather focus my redraft into fewer leagues
(02:12):
with higher stakes because there's so much time that goes
into it. I spend a lot of time on these leagues,
which is also why I love Best Ball so much.
Having two young kids, it's easy to manage one hundred
teams because there's no management. So let's get into the
News and Notes, which is pushing hot and heavy. We've
got a little kind of program shift which I want
to have tip before. Instead of turning this into a
straight news desk, We're going to try and segment into
(02:33):
the show into News and Notes how it affects ADP
in the drafting landscape, which matters a ton right now right,
keeping ADP fresh, staying in front of it as they change,
and I'm doing more of a traditional maybe fantasy episode today.
We're going to do some bold predictions. Each of us
have a pair of them. Man, one of yours I
really like, but I want to push up against. I
guess we'll cross that bridge where you get there, all right. First,
(02:54):
across the news thatest today was Josh Jacobsy has been
a running theme, but now it's not just off field
stuff popped up DNP with a groin again. The only
quote is not believed to be anything serious. I saw
the video. He doesn't look great, but I already had
to take an off season l from elak neighbors and
judging him with that softball gait that he was showing
(03:16):
off in air quotes. What do you think about Josh
jacobs potential is there? Are you buying the dip? There's
a threat in Marshawn Lloyd. How are you tackling Josh
Jacobs for the Packers?
Speaker 1 (03:25):
John, It's just another thing against him. If this was it,
if this was a one off and oh Josh Jacobs
popped up with a little injury, whatever, we can navigate
that we shouldn't over analyze something like that that's not
expected to be a long term injury. But it's another
thing on top of so many other things that are
already going against Josh Jacobs. There's the offs field stuff.
(03:47):
There's the crazy big workload from last year and his
whole career frankly, which seemed to start affecting him last year.
There is the addition or the health at least of
Marshawn Lloyd. There's just a lot of factors that I
don't like. For Jacobs, so just pushing me even further
away from him.
Speaker 2 (04:03):
Yeah, I'm usually making the price based argument. That's been
my issue. Jacobs is still firmly inside the top three rounds.
He's carrying a thirty ADP. That's consensus. I was using
Fantasy pros NB. Fantasy Life also is a good page there.
All could be pretty similar regardless. Josh Jacobs not really
getting much of a discount. You could see why, but
it really has to do with a ton of volume.
(04:26):
You know, he had almost sixteen rushes a game, and
you're getting almost a half a Fantasy point per snap
because he's so prevalent near the goal line, right Jordan
will not really kind of running it in. That's all
his game, but he never really had a real threat.
The drum beats for Lloyd are really high. So I've
been staying away from Jacobs. I think I need to
see it. You mentioned it every kind of news slash note.
(04:48):
It's just another ding, it's another red flag, but it's
not being reflected in the price. So where would he
have to go maybe in the fourth round. Would you
be willing to snap or do you think you're out?
Speaker 1 (04:59):
I mean I was just out I've been out on
Josh Jacobs. I can't see myself getting back in if
he's in there in like the twelfth round. Maybe I'll
hold my nose and think about it. It feels weird
to say as a Packers fan, but I know I'm
just entirely out on the guy.
Speaker 2 (05:12):
Yeah, I would definitely second that. Just four yards per attempt,
just over three yards I have to contact per attempt.
We're starting to see a lack of explosivity, and that's
normally the sign of the aging running back. His age
might not be so much on the calendar so much
as the touches. This guy is always good for so
many touches. Next up it is camp hype superstar Luther
(05:36):
Burden for the Bears. His ADP is already starting to
sink pretty fast, though it appears to have found the
floor in the mid fifties. We have a confirmed growing strain.
He's expected to miss a full month. They are expecting
week one. Now. He did play This isn't a rookie.
He's familiar with the playbook. The one thing that Burden
himself mentioned was timing Johnson's off. He's very much predicated
(06:01):
on timing. Being in the right spot, which Burden attributes
his success to repetitions. Where are you on Burden. I'm
not out. I'm still buying. But the dip I wish
it was a little bit dippier.
Speaker 1 (06:12):
Maybe it's it's dippy, but it's not like dippy egg
dippy you know where that yolk is so soft you
can go ahead and dip a slice of toast in it.
It's not getting there yet. Maybe it will eventually, John,
Like if if we just haven't had enough time for
sort of the typical drafters to get back in and
push the ADP down, you know, maybe it don't happen.
(06:33):
Because I was out on Luther Burden previously. I just
felt like his cost was a little too presumptive. We
were it's going to tie into something I'm going to
talk about later, but I felt like we were overrating
Luthor Burden and his potential impact on the offense. So
this might actually get it down to a spot where
I'm comfortable drafting him because I don't mind that he
(06:54):
is missing this time. Right now. I'd rather be now,
certainly than at the beginning of the season. If he's healthy,
For one, I do have some confidence that he'll be
targeted heavily, so we'll see.
Speaker 2 (07:04):
Yeah, Burnen's so wildly efficient, which is the harder thing
to replicate. They did vacate some targets with more but
twenty five percent target per out, two point seven yards
per out, most eleven yards per target, I mean, just
crazy seven point two yards after the catch per reception.
We know that's the strength of his game, and Johnson's
very good at dalling it up, which is why I'm
(07:25):
not gonna get away from it. But again, yeah, I
wish the I wish the dip was a little more silky.
Let's say, next one up is a player both you
and I were drafting kind of kind of stings the
nostrils a little bit. Our guy, Makay Lemon for the Eagles.
At this point, the quote is, at this point, it's
fair to doubt mkayle Lemon will start early in the season.
(07:45):
For their beat reports, he's missed half of spring practices,
half of training camp due to that hamstring injury. You know,
we mentioned it happening at the same time as Devada.
The Smith injury doesn't seem like a big deal. He's fine.
Not so much for Lemon. What do you think Jake
Lemon or lemonee.
Speaker 1 (08:03):
Ugh, I was such a lemonhead. I've been a big
Mackai Lemon truther. The thing the context I should say
with this is it's not that they're projecting that he
won't be available week one. It's simply that he's missed
so much time this offseason as a rookie that they
don't feel comfortable trotting him out there as one of
the lead guys, which I understand and that makes sense.
(08:26):
The hope is that the talent is still so prevalent
the draft capital so high from the Eagles, that he
does work his way to the center of the offense
very quickly once he sort of gets some game action.
But if you're drafting him right now, you can't feel
confident that you're going to want to start him in
the first what I don't know, four to five weeks, Like,
(08:47):
if you see it right away in week one, you'll
be shocked. Even week two, I don't think you'd want
to get him in your lineup just based on some
of these comments, and maybe it was a fluke, So
it's something that you'll have to see him produce fairly
routinely before you get him into your life or I would.
So I'm staying away for right now.
Speaker 2 (09:04):
Ar audible sigh audible side Jake, who really kills when
one of your guys pops up on these reports? And
like I mentioned, the rookie not having that benefit of
continuity and repetitions under the belt where it's not just
timing here, it is establishing that connection with Hurts. They're
(09:26):
also going through a lot of changes in Philadelphia. I
think the big winner here has got to be Dontavian Wicks.
He hasn't really moved up yet. I guess people not
really buying it. I was digging into the spreadsheet. I
get it, There's not a ton there. I mean, he
was very good at getting first downs. He got a
first out every eleven routes, which is very good. He
was over eleven are yards per target. But other than that,
(09:48):
just not a ton there. I guess I just revamped
by twenty twenty six spreadsheets. You could tell because I
separated man and zone. I really wanted to get a
better idea of where these players were excelling, so I
would have to maybe back up to bring struggle on
Wicks a little bit. Twenty nine target per rate against
man almost two yards per rout and a very good
(10:09):
EPA with an extremely good success rate. So if you
know Smith is getting a lot of attention and Wix
looks like he's gonna be manned up on the outside,
he could still be a threat. I love him as
a late round pick just in case, worst case scenario,
something happens with Lemon and there's a bit of a setback.
Let's say you're getting a he's gonna be every down receiver.
(10:30):
It looks like he might be in every down receiver
for the first month anyway, more of a redraft pick
right now, I think Wix is a wonderful, you know,
back end pick or possible flex play early in the
season while no one is looking his direction. Next up.
It was one of my guys early. But it's also
I don't invite injuries. Alec Pearce. When we saw the
ankle pop up, then it was he had a second shot.
(10:53):
Oh wait, he didn't have a second shot. And then
I thought, wait, I don't know which is better or not,
Which is better to have the shot or the shot.
What do you think about Pierce right now? There's a
lot of uncertainty there for a guy who got a
tremendous contract to not be starting right away.
Speaker 1 (11:07):
Just tell us what's gonna happen? Why do we have
to keep doing this? Don't I don't like it. I
don't feel confident in Alex, but I've had my own
Alec Pierce woes already. I came into this with a
little bit of bias because I just didn't believe the
big contract was going to be enough to get him
consistent targets. Anyways, I still thought he would be low target,
(11:29):
high efficiency. So now with this injury that just keeps
on going. What's the efficiency going to look like? For
a guy who relies entirely on efficiency? I don't like it.
For Pierce. People are pivoting towards Josh Downs, which I
completely understand. I myself, this is just pumping Tyler Warren
further and further up my draft ranks because I was
(11:50):
already flirting. I felt like Colston Lovelin was getting all
of the offseason love for these tight ends, and I
thought Tyler Warren should be in that conversation. I might
flip flop and put Warren above Loveland at this point.
Speaker 2 (12:03):
Yeah, well, okay, now we're jumping the shark you had
me pushing war and up, I'd put him right behind that.
Loved what happened to be my guy. Not to bury
the lead for later, but he's really one of my guys.
I think I make a tremendous impact. Regardless all kidding aside,
I don't think you're that far off piece. Tyler Warren
is a freak of nature. He is so good. And
(12:23):
I think we allowed the Daniel Jones injury and the
way the Colts just completely, you know, took that nose
dive and flound it at the end of the season.
But I think we're just punishing everybody, and maybe we shouldn't.
He was a rookie at my dominy, just absolutely dominating.
He's also part of the goal line package. He's not
gonna get all the carries from JT, but he's part
(12:45):
of that package. The Chiefs became very popular for that,
those fake shifty handoffs. We don't know if their passes,
they keep changing in the back. It was a pass,
it was a reception, it wasn't it was a run.
But that really works. You get the ball in the
hands of a play. I think Warren is really undervalued
right now. I've actually been doing some two tight end
sets in those big tournaments, trying to be a little
(13:06):
bit unique. As far as Pierce goes, I would push
back just one thing. I don't want to argue about
the efficiency. He was highly efficient. However, I think the
way they used him is one of the ways to
be sustainable through efficiency. And he's so very good at
winning in the outer levels in the play action game,
so that was what they brought him back for the
(13:27):
threat of Jones plus Taylor to run in the backfield
opens up any defense that is going to allow peers
who I don't think it's enough credit, But again, I
don't think you're that far off. Piece all right, Next
up Isaiah P. Checko for the Lion, somebody I really
wasn't drafting anyway. He's now sunk like an absolute stone.
I was joking on Twitter, I'm moving Jamior Gibbs up
(13:47):
to the negative one to oh one. I'm now drafting
Gibbs before if I have the first pick, I'm drafting
him before I walk into the room because as the
only place left to go. Picchecko spring to mcl Campbell,
who can be a bit overly optimistic in my opinion
that I like I would run through a wall for him,
But I don't know if I'm buying. And he said
I'll be ready for the opener. I don't know if
I like Pacheco in the first place. Now he's a
(14:08):
spring knee. What do you think about Pacheco? Would you
be buying the dip here? He's like into the one fifties?
Speaker 1 (14:14):
Now, Well, you and I were talking about this before
we started recording, that there is a point where these
running backs in the late rounds get so groady, where
you're drafting names that you're like, I can't even believe
he's still in the league, let alone on this draft list.
So there's a world, yeah, where Pachecko is a very
very late round running back makes sense if you're in
(14:36):
a super deep league or something. In general, No, though,
it's still gonna be Jamir Gibbs. I don't think there's
going to be a true number two in this backfield
to worry about for our drafting purposes.
Speaker 2 (14:47):
Interesting, you kind of took the next question, where do
you think they go somebody else that's to touch the ball?
I mean that's just a fact of life here now,
So only Vaki I've heard that name get mentioned but
he's banged up all so the other names on the roster, Jake,
I'm not gonna lie. I never do. I'm very transparent.
I don't know who these people are. Jacob Sailors, Raheem Blacksheer,
(15:09):
I know that name. Jabari Small I if anybody should
we know about You're a lot more plugged into the
college stuff than I am. He've done a really great
job actually so far. And the little nuggets we've gotten
about these college players. I think you've been in front
of the market. Do any of those guys warn't a
twentieth rounder?
Speaker 1 (15:26):
Maybe I no, No, I don't want to know. D me,
I would say. The only name that I even really
know is Raheem Blackshear from his time with the Panthers,
but he was more of a special teams guy then.
He had occasional dips and running back. It wouldn't shock
me if we get to a point where Pacheco isn't
going to be available or healthy, that they take a
(15:46):
quick dip into the free agency market. Because there are
some interesting veteran names that are still out there, and
Naji Harris is still lingering around. I thought he might
get scooped up, So I just don't know if the
guy's on the roster yet, if they're gonna rely on
somebody else.
Speaker 2 (15:59):
Yeah, James Connor has been an interesting game, popping up
in like trade talks. I think they're telegraphed that he
could probably be had cheap and that would be a
perfect fit. I was actually just doing a little bit
of research. He popped in a lot of areas. I
know his best seasons James Connor are firmly in the
rearview mirror, but for a backup he could be interesting.
I say that because he's starting to get drafted. I'm
(16:21):
not sure so much it's for Arizona. I don't know
how impact will Whip be for them, though they're talking
them up. That really could be a trade bait thing anyway,
very last name, and I want to tell you I'm
really digging this kind of format shift before we get
into the fantasy stuff. That was a really good flow.
Hopefully everyone is in joying that last one is George
Kittle Superstation five G Wave seventeen George Kittle won. Looks
(16:46):
like we're now at a quote unquote high level of
confidence at this point that George Kittle will play Week one.
I saw some of those tapes. He's moving around unimpeded,
with no braces or anything. He was cutting and jumping.
They said he looks ready to go. So the reason
I mentioned that, I'm not sure if everyone is keen
to this Week one is an international game, and a
(17:06):
lot of people, like myself, we're definitely not anticipating that
he needed to trip. It just seemed like too much hassle,
right for somebody that might play, might be liminated, might
not play. Why drag him literally halfway across the globe
to play a game of football. If he's gonna play
Week one, I'm feeling pretty confident about him where he's
going right that game is in Melbourne. Thanks Robbie Ash.
(17:29):
There's very few tight ends with the weekly ceiling of
George Kittle, So poke this about Kittle, where you think
that ceiling peak may have moved to, and whether or
not you're interested at him at ADP one hundred, he
definitely sticks out at that point from a Spike week perspective.
Speaker 1 (17:44):
Yeah, I mean, George Kittle has been one of the
most consistent elite fantasy producers. Maybe not every single week,
but the highs are extremely high. For George Kittle, and
he's been known to play through all this stuff. That's
why I've been saying all offseason, it's not gonna surprised
me if both George Kittle and Tucker Craft are suiting
up week one, because they just there are those types
(18:05):
of dudes. Kittle especially is the what is it the
Black Night from Monty Python. He keeps getting limbs chopped off,
and he keeps pretending like it's no big deal and
he's gonna play through it anyways. So they're just flesh
runs for George Kittle at this point, and I think
that as long as he says he's gonna be out there,
we can believe him because he's gonna push for it.
(18:27):
I don't know that I'm ready to start him in
week one, like I'll draft him. I think week one
I want to have just a short term contingency plan
just in case, But after that I'm along for the ride.
Speaker 2 (18:37):
Yeah, you absolutely should. I think that's a really great point.
Draft Kittle and then maybe wait it, maybe make like
a week zero ad at tight end to figure it out.
I would even argue with Fifth saying he's gonna play
full time. I think you could play him again. He's
just so efficient. Last year there was even a little
bit of volume. He had more than six targets a game,
twenty four percent target for round, almost two in a
(18:59):
quarter yards route first down every seven and a half routes,
which is fantastic. He catches everything that's near him. He
beats man. He's an absolute zone killer. Twenty four percent
team target share against his own two and a half
yards per route. I mean, incredible success rate, big time EPA.
The Niners know where their bread is buttered against his zone,
(19:20):
and it's George Kittle. If you're playing PPR especially, he's
a He's a really big time target for me again.
Now I was, I was also so into Party. I'm
kind of kicking myself in my behind because I wasn't
pairing Kiddle with Party because I was worried. I thought
maybe Purty, you know, he could stand alone. If I
would have been this confident now as I was then,
(19:41):
ah man, I probably have a lot more Kiddle. But
the price hasn't really moved. I think we can get
with him. All right, Let's take a real quick break,
shuffle the papers. I'm gonna get my redraft hat on
and we'll do some Bowl projections and we're back. All right, Jake,
that's been a little bit too much of me. I
think litle bit of me can be too much sometimes.
(20:01):
What did you lead us off in your first prediction?
It was one I mentioned I was very much in
fever of and I really hope this happens. Take it away,
all right.
Speaker 1 (20:10):
So I'm gonna start with something positive here, John, I
want to lead in with positivity, which I guess means
I'm gonna end with negativity. So I don't actually know
if the order of this stands and if you're gonna
still be behind this, but I think that Garrett Wilson
is going to have himself a career year and land
in the top eight of all wide receivers. Because John,
(20:33):
I don't like to speak in hyperbole, okay, So I'm
just gonna say this, Garrett Wilson is the most underappreciated
wide receiver in the history of this planet and fantasy football.
There no hyperbolely spoken. Few Thank you, thank you. That
was very brave of me to say. I do think
(20:54):
if we're just looking at Garrett Wilson on the draft board,
he's going in the fourth round or so right now
in redraft leagues and he's around these names where you
can make the case for those guys over him, But
a lot of these guys being drafted around him don't
have his proven track record of production three straight thousand
yard seasons to start off his career, despite you know,
(21:15):
catching passes from a who's who of why them at quarterback,
which Zach Wilson and Mike White and Trevor Simeon and
Tim Boyle and late stage Aaron Rodgers coming off of Achilles,
Tiar and Taren You know, last year with Justin Fields,
it was a short amount of time, but people were
down on Wilson because Justin Fields, how was he going
(21:36):
to keep him fantasy viable? And here he is looking like,
I think, like the wide receiver five, wide receiver six
in his healthy games that he was playing. And now
he gets Geno Smith, who I would argue, strictly for fantasy,
John not looking at real life, but strictly for fantasy,
might just be the best quarterback that he's ever played
with in his career. And he's hyping him up. Gino
(21:58):
Smith has been talking about him a lot offseason. I
think his first quote about the guy was. It's my
job to get him the ball and get him the
ball early. And that is music to my ears and
anybody else who believes in the talent of Garrett Wilson,
Because I get that they added some guys right in
the draft. They add Omar Cooper Junior, they add Kenyon Sadiq.
(22:19):
He's kind of had his own health stuff that we've
talked about. But I just think there's no Lamar Jackson
walking through that door, folks for the Jets. So you're
not going to get better than Geno Smith right now,
is my point. But it's very much good enough, and
I think he should be drafted higher.
Speaker 2 (22:35):
Yeah, I want to agree with a few of those points.
Won the quarterback play the way you put it is funny.
I've heard it's a who's who of who who's who? Yeah,
just absolute nobody's And I've been taking flack for asserting
that I thought Gino Smith was a below average quarterback. Like,
imagine setting the bar that low, and still it's not
(22:57):
being enough to satisfy just about anybody. Gino's always run
good EPA numbers. Again, good enough, good enough, I don't know,
it's whatever. It's always in vogue to kind of dog
pile the Jets, which I totally get. Wilson just a
tremendous volume based play. Also a huge man beater man
(23:18):
two and a half yards were out versus Man, almost
a full point added per target against Man with a
sixteen percent success rate. Again with those guys throwing to
the ball. He is a super He is a superstar.
Ban's four or tenth overall pick at OSU. He's he
is legit hashtag good at football and a very good
example of how environment can kind of drag you down.
(23:39):
It's not gonna take much. Last point to the additions,
The addition of ad Ni Mitchell is a benefit to
Garrett Wilson. It's a part of the field that now
must be defended. We spoke about this again. I'm not
trying to get too bullish on Gino, but where he's
always been good is deep and outside the hashmarks, which
is where ad Ni Mitchell is a little he hid
(24:00):
killer out there. He is very very good out there.
So even if you're in disagreement that he's some world eater,
you have to defend all those blades of grass out
there thirty yards deep. That was not at all in
anyone's playbook. Defensively, last season, nobody thought for a second
about defending thirty yards off the line of scrimmage against
the Jets. So I love this for Wilson. Where he's going,
(24:22):
I think his criminal and he is a smash in
the fourth round. You may even get some home leagues
where he goes to the fifth. Yeah, now let's back
into mind. You already kind of fired astray at him.
It's mister Colston Lovelin, who I have is my tight
end one. I mean, I feel like we saw a
ton of it. It started with the one game missed
(24:45):
and Loveland had a tremendous breakout and I think that
was Week nine, and then when the chips were down,
and this is all through just this long standing drum
beat from Johnson and how Loveland was the offseason target
do Twothy targets for him. He was the first pick
he ever made. He had special plans for him online.
Off the ball was gonna be his yack guy, a
(25:07):
catcher release guy. We saw all of that, and it
really manifested in the last four games, including the playoffs,
where I know it's a small sample, and if that's
the argument, I get it. I'm pushing back that's baked
into the price. We're not paying second round McBride price.
I'm getting back end of the fourth. Sometimes these numbers
are absolutely crazy. I mean, he's running thirty five routes
(25:31):
a game, eleven and a half targets a game, eight
receptions for ninety three yards. He's an all per game
thirty three point three percent target per route, almost two
and three quarter yards per route, eight yards per target,
eleven a day after catch. Gosh, he was just fantastic,
almost one hundred air yards per game. He caught everything
that went his way. Again, he played in line, beating man,
(25:54):
beating zone, working the slot and an end zone target.
And now Luther Burden, you know, was banged end to
vacated targets with DJ Moore. All that tells me I
am so so bullish on the freak that is Colston Loveland.
Just tell us where I miss j No. John.
Speaker 1 (26:10):
I want to be very very clear about something, John.
The shot fired at Colston Loveland is simply is simply
that Tyler Warren is also extremely good, and I don't
want people to forget about that. That is not at
all to disparage Colston Loveland who I actually think is
the only piece of this Bears offense that I really
am confident in. Now, I don't have him as my
(26:32):
tight end one, just because I want to give some
respect to Brock Bauers. Frey McBride, I think still has
a case, though it is fading a little bit every week.
I think it's the tight end one. And again, I
love me some Tyler Warren. It's There's a lot about
this Bears offense that I'm going to talk about shortly,
but the one thing I will always say positively is
(26:53):
that Colston Loveland looks like an actual beast when he
plays football, and his turch victory never stopped once it
started going up. You see guys in their first season
have splashes, they have little stretches, little streaks where they
look really really good, and then they kind of fade
or fade in and out. That wasn't the case for
(27:14):
Colston Loveland. So I like it. If I'm going to
bother drafting a tight end very early, that's my cutoff
is Colston Loveland. And then you know, We've talked about
some mid and late range tight end targets as well.
But I love Coast and love it don't you try
to paint me into a corner against Colston Loveland.
Speaker 2 (27:34):
Yeah, and to make a counter to my own point
price adjusted, if you're getting worn in the sixth, that
could be a league winner, you know, he could be everything.
Next up is your your next Bowl call? Wh Why
don't you take it away? When I saw this again,
it it kind of hurt me because it was almost
against mine. But I think you're gonna say that it
(27:57):
might it might not right, Just take it away and
I'll go for there.
Speaker 1 (28:02):
Well, we're already talking about the Bears, so let me
continue to talk about the Bears, and I will try
to do this that the listeners cannot see this. But
this is me taking off my Packers fandom hat and
he's setting it. Yeah, and I'm throwing it off to
the side. I'm melting the cheese just for this segment,
so that you know I'm coming in without bias. But
(28:24):
I expect Caleb Williams to have a very down season,
and in fact, I think he falls outside of the
top twelve fantasy quarterbacks. I know that is shocking to hear.
People are throwing tomatoes at their phones right now, but
let me just get this out last year, Caleb Williams.
He's QB six overall in fantasy, QB nine in points
per game, which is important little asterisk there, But I
(28:47):
think it's a bit of a mirage of what we
saw because what we saw last year, the good stuff
that he had going for and was this. He had
opening drive magic, he had fourth quarter heroics, he had
big spectacular downfield plays and that's all good stuff and
that presents a very high ceiling for a fantasy quarterback,
which he achieved last year. But it's this other stuff.
(29:10):
It's the smaller stuff that really worries me with him.
I keep coming back to the stats. So I apologize
to anybody if you've heard this a million times already,
But among all quarterbacks who threw the ball at least
two hundred times last year and this includes the postseason,
Caleb Williams was second from the bottom in completion percentage.
He was only above Shador Sanders. His percentage of on
(29:31):
target throws was also second worst, better than only JJ McCarthy.
Those are not the names you want to surround yourself
with if people should have confidence in you. So Caleb's numbers,
you can say that they were bad because of how
often and how aggressively he was throwing downfield. I get
that those completions are harder to make, but if he
(29:54):
doesn't improve some of the other basic stuff, you cannot
bank on those plays being there. Because the guy got
a lot of those extra opportunities to make the big
plays because the Bears had a ball hawking defense, they
led the league in takeaways, They kept giving him more
chances to do what he didn't do previously. They also
had one of the easiest strengths of schedule in the NFL,
(30:15):
for what that's worth. So if the good fortune runs
out for Caleb John then is going to be tough,
I think for fantasy consistency, because he does not have
that Lamar Jackson, that Josh Allen level of rushing upside
to make up for this stuff. He's closer to Baker
Mayfield frankly in terms of rushing upside. And you know,
if you're also expecting some bounceback from guys who finished
(30:39):
poorly last year, like Justin Herbert, like Joe Burrow, like
Jayden Daniels. Heck, even Daniel Jones that we talked about
was very good when he was healthy. If you're expecting
those guys to come up. I think it's just easy
enough to say Caleb needs to get a lot positively,
you know, in terms of growth. It can't all be
going to Colston Loveland to your point and hoping for
(31:02):
the best.
Speaker 2 (31:03):
Yeah, when your off target rate is next to Shador
and JJ nine, you're doing something wrong. There are definitely
holes in this profile. And we were talking about this
how quarterback pricing has been very dependent on the draft room.
And I don't mean that in the general theoretical sense.
I mean where the pass catcher is, people are attaching
(31:25):
the quarterback. So if a guy with Burden and Loveland
was in front of you, then Caleb Williams was going
first in that. And I think he was leading the
ADP quarterback pack, if I'm saying that right, because he
had two pass catchers going before him, And I don't
think it was based on like his pure kind of
(31:45):
talent and fantasy expectations. And I actually pushed him back
in my ranks for a lot of what you're talking
about here. He took entirely too long to throw all
so I kind of worry about that. He had one
of the worst, if not the I it is time
to throw. He there's Shadoor Sanders again, only person with
a worse time to throw than Caleb wash your door,
(32:09):
which is not what you're looking for at all. It
was good to see cut down on the sacks, which
we love, but he doesn't really throw outside. Yeah, I
don't know. I totally get what you're saying here. A
lot of this feels very much faith based on the
you know, like the Johnson creativity, which we're gonna put
your stock in one guy. It's probably him, right, But
(32:32):
I do think the cart may be in front of
the horse for Caleb. I mean, we can't be relying
on buzzer beating game winning throws off your back foot
to the back of the end zone, which I happened
for than once. It's very hard to rely on those
kind of plays. All right now, how about mine? I'm
gonna go with a little more positivity of Fronny Human.
You're talking about that before, and I'm thinking, this is
(32:54):
fantasy football. There's no one there's no happiness here. You've
come to the You've come to the wrong place, my friend.
All right, I'm going with z Flowers, who I am
just over the moon for. I've got him as a
top five wide receiver, and it's it's almost one of
those things. I'm like, you're actually gonna make me like
explain this. I mean, great quarterback, volume guy, A new
(33:20):
coordinator in Decklen Doyle we're really excited about, who has
been mentioning him by name, and the spreadsheet just screaming,
you know, every down player. He had a ninety six
percent ral participation rate, earned one hundred and eighteen targets
for over twelve hundred yards. Of course, the hang up
is the touchdowns, which is not something we should be
(33:40):
focusing on, yet that seems to be carrying the price
where Flowers had more. He averaged over a half of
a red zone target per game for the year, just
over a quarter of an end zone target. These are
not great, but it's not like they're ignoring him. I
(34:01):
just think the touchdown based analysis is a little too
variant to be hanging our hats on. And then all
the trammings we love. Twenty five percent target per route,
over two and a half yards per route, over ten
yards per target. I mean, he beats man, he beats zone.
He gets all the lay up stuff underneath. You know,
he's a slot dominator with Yak and again, some of
(34:25):
these stats include missing Lamar, who's healthy right now. I'm
not trying to predict injuries. Give me Zay Flowers where
he's going. Especially again right Jake, we'd like to give
advice that people could actually deploy. And if I'm telling
you I'm drafting running backs early, man, I really am.
Third round Za feels like I'm getting a second round
(34:46):
wide receiver as my wide receiver one, and I get
to fill in those critical running back spots. Talk to
me about Zay Flowers and maybe if my expectations are
a little misplaced.
Speaker 1 (34:56):
I don't think so. I love Zay Flowers this year.
To your point about if you want to start your
draft with two running backs or a running back in
one of these tight ends that we're hyping up, if
you can get Zay Flowers and a Mecca Buca and
Garrett Wilson, Like, if you can get that trio in
rounds three through five, which is actually plausible depending on
where you're drafting from, that's a heck of a way
(35:17):
to build out your roster. And to your point about
the touchdowns, there should never be an expectation unless you
are like DeVante Adams that you're gonna have X amount
of opportunities every year at touchdowns and you're a shoe
in for double digits at wide receiver. Remember how many
years we hoped and prayed and kind of banked on
(35:41):
the fact that Julio Jones eventually has to score more
than like three touchdowns in a season, and it was
like eight years in a row. He was the exception
that proves the rule where Okay, yes, he continually gets
low touchdowns year after year, but he grew positive. Regression
should have caught up to him at some point, as
it did literally every other wide receiver. So I'm not
(36:02):
worried about Jay Flowers. And you mentioned the Declan Doyle thing.
I just have to point it out. Coming over from
the Bears, I do think that's a big positive for
the throwing game in general in Baltimore. And I know
there's been some hype about the rookie wide receiver there,
Jacobe Lane. There's no worry to me that he's gonna
eat into Jay Flowers. If anything, it's gonna be like
(36:25):
you mentioned with ad n I Wilson or ad Ni
Mitchell and Garrett Wilson. That's just something that should help
with the pressure on Zay Flowers. So I love the call.
Speaker 2 (36:35):
Yeah, I find myself in that camp of thought, and
it gets a lot of pushback. What about this guy?
Jamar Chas and t Higgins confeased? To me, it's not
about a number of stars. It's about the consolidation in
the offense. I feel like Baltimore is pretty consolidated. In fact,
they may have been overly consolidated. I don't want too
(36:56):
much attention. We don't want Zay Flowers getting bracket coverage.
You know, that's that's overdoing it. We don't want that.
We want to threat again with those deeper blades of grass.
It'll be yet to be seeing what we have in
Mark Andrew. So I'm glad to see another secondary weapon
added to the Ravens. All right, Jae, that was awesome.
I think that might have been the best episode of
the season. What's gonna do it for us? Here today?
(37:17):
A little bit news, you know, it's a little bit
of bold predictions. We'll be back next week. We have
a little bit more of the same, but a different
topic at the back end. So from John and Jake
and producer Robbie, we really do appreciate you for listening.
Thanks again, and everyone have a wonderful weekend.
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