May 22, 2026 • 33 mins
John Laghezza and Jake Trowbridge are back this week to review the latest news and notes in the fantasy sphere! Rashee Rice has legal and medical issues, so where does his value sit two months before training camp? Aaron Rodgers announces his final go round, so the guys get into a debate about the Steeler skill position players. They touch on Arizona's offense, Atlanta's offense and much more in this Memorial Day weekend edition of FFW!
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Time now for Fantasy Football Weekly from iHeartRadio, your weekly
source for the nation's best fantasy speculation and advice. Hello,
Welcome back through Fantasy Football Weekly with your host, faithful
narrator John mcgeza at the very creative handle on Social
(00:25):
John Lagaza, and my body and yours, mister Jake Trowbridge. Jake,
feels like a little bit of the quiet before the storm, right,
we had so much movement, so much action. The draft happens,
the snow globe gets shaken, and I was scrambling doing
ranks for moving players. And now this week things are
kind of settling. So we'll talk about some news and notes,
(00:47):
then some strength of schedule stuff that came out, and
everybody was really excited. How are you doing, my friend.
Speaker 2 (00:52):
I'm doing good.
Speaker 3 (00:53):
I'm trying to weed my way through some of this
white noise that happens this time of year. Though this
is the lull where you said it, there's not a
lot going on, but you know, voluntary OTAs are kicking off,
and this is guy where some of the weird offseason
narrative stuff, the fluff starts to come out that you
really gotta do well to sift through. So some of
the stuff I know we're going to talk about today
(01:14):
is actually impactful, and some of this other stuff out
there is just a little bit junkie.
Speaker 1 (01:18):
I think the word fluff is really fitting. It's like
junk food. You could consume as much of it as
you want, but it might just be a negative right
at the end of the day, a little satisfying as
you're getting your rumor on. But then, like you said,
is it actionable? And if you act on something that
it's not actual, you're only going to hurt yourself. I
(01:40):
try and tell myself this every year, whether it's baseball
spring training or NFL with these exhibition games, with the preseason, ignore, ignore, ignore,
just pay attention to health. I know sometimes there are
some signals in playing time, rotations and stuff, but I'll
be honest, I e betterrow sticking with my guns before
(02:01):
we dive in. Do you have a take on that,
because that's one of my most interesting questions for tried
and true you know, fantasy players and analysts, Well, how
do you treat the preseason? Do you even care?
Speaker 3 (02:10):
I try to ignore it preseason unless it's something that
is so out of left field, like wow, I can't
believe that they trotted out Joe Burrow for an entire
preseason game. That must mean something, because otherwise they're just
insane to do that. Obviously, that's a silly hypothetical. But otherwise, no,
I don't. I know some of these guys are still
(02:31):
fighting for roster spots, but in general, the preseason has
gotten so shrunken down, I think, and it's become a
little bit less meaningful than it used to once upon
a time, with fewer games and all that stuff. So
I just try to, uh, as you said, avoid it
and not overreact.
Speaker 1 (02:47):
Yeah, a lot of these coaches, and bless their hearts,
you know, they're taking their job seriously and we want
them to do that, but some of them think they're
protecting state secrets during these exhibition games, and I think
it actually hurts them where we want some repetition and
like you mentioned, guys will be sitting. But then some
analysts overreact. Did you see this third string back got
first quarter run? Those are the notes that I'm trying
(03:10):
to ignore, because then you see these giant moves and
drafting markets. All right, how about the actual news it
did happen. Old Man Rogers is on the move. I
think we were pretty much on that. It felt like
a foregone conclusion, but we mentioned the meeting that was
not Well, it did happen. Aaron Rodgers does sign a
one year contract extension to return to the Steelers. Then
(03:30):
there was a semi cole in like the next day
or two, he says he's going to retire afterwards, this
is it. Well from all of us, mister Rogers, thank goodness,
but for the time being, for the time being, Jake,
you know, this does have drafting impact. I saw a
couple analysts say that Rogers, up to date in Best
Ball drafts or maybe even some dynasty stuff, was one
of the more undervalued players. Right because he's off the
(03:53):
board and now he's gonna start. What do you think
about Rogers and then his impact on the steel and
how you're treating him going forward.
Speaker 3 (04:02):
I mean, I think I said last week, John that
it was getting to a point where like they were
just waiting and waiting and waiting on him, and I
didn't really get the appeal of that. And even from fantasy,
I was thinking, is it really going to be that
much worse if they tried out? You know, the rookie
Drew Alaar or last year's rookie, Will Howard or whoever.
Would it be worse than what we saw from Rogers
(04:23):
last year, who was getting the ball out of his
hands as fast as possible to avoid anybody breathing on him.
And it was just really a downtick. For all those
fantasy pieces outside of like Kenny Gainwell, I will say
I'm a little more interested now that he has admitted
this is his last season, Like I think we could
have all assumed that, but a thank you for saying
(04:44):
that so we don't have to drag this out even
longer into another offseason. But also maybe if he knows
that it's really his last season, it gets him to
play with a little less you know, conservatism, Like he's
a little more loose with it. He's trying to and
his legacy on top. Maybe it just forces him to
up his game a tiny bit. So for the fantasy pieces,
(05:06):
I'm trying to talk myself into some of these guys
from that perspective, like.
Speaker 2 (05:10):
Michael Pittman, DK Metcalf.
Speaker 3 (05:11):
Maybe I'm around a little bit more on them, but
I think I'm probably the outlier and staying away from
most of these guys.
Speaker 1 (05:17):
John Yeah, you really nailed it. The word for me
is aggression and something that Rogers was always known for
and that's not necessarily something we expect to drop off
with each right, because that's really a cerebral thing as
long as you have the arm talent, and that I
certainly think he does. Is because more about what you said,
(05:38):
they're really trying to avoid in taking hits, which they should,
but when it really starts to reflect onto the spreadsheet
and then onto the team, I think it really hurts you.
Rogers had a six air yard per tenth, Like that's
not going to cut it. One of my favorite stats
As we go, we'll get into some of my quarterback analysis.
I like percentage of throws to the sticks. I was
(05:59):
talking going to Mike Sando, and Sando has a real
great reputation in NFL circles. I think he might even
run with some GMS and stuff, and he would talk
about that all the time, and it really ranked me
because that really adds like a contextual element to efficiency. Right.
We want high completion rates and we want, you know,
(06:21):
deep targets, but not always what do we always want
the ball to go to the sticks that it was
at thirty three percent, so just a third of his
attempts last year went to the stick. Was So my
point is, Jake a low a dot like a low attempt,
it's not the end of the world providing it's getting
to the sticks because it means you're effective running. That
just wasn't the case with this pass game. So now
(06:44):
to the draft room itself. These are real time prices.
DK metcalf eightp. Seventy six. I won't bury the lead
for me. That feels very rich. Michael Pittman at one
oh six. All of a sudden, I'm like, maybe if
Rogers is gonna get it out. We've seen Pittman operate
with some success at shorter and intermediate routes. Do you
(07:04):
have a take on either one of them, either both, neither?
What do you think?
Speaker 3 (07:07):
I'm more into Pittman because he should be presumably the
shorter I doubt. I don't want to say dump off
because that is not what it's going to be necessarily,
but he will be the shorter pass guy. I would
like to see any of these guys be able to
catch the ball short and have massive yak potential. I
don't know that I see any of these guys having
(07:27):
both of those things unfortunately, but I would still be
more in on Michael Pittman, especially at that price.
Speaker 1 (07:33):
Yeah, metchalv is so interesting that he's got all the
yak on the deep target. So it really is very
much an all or nothing thing. I don't want to
say like on some tape guru, but just watching it
didn't really seem to click for me. He looked a
step slow, The continuity between the two didn't seem to
be there. Nice to have it back. Maybe that works.
(07:55):
We might have that same issue with Pittman. I think
Pittman is a better player right now apples to apples
that Metcalf. I think for fantasy purposes, at least maybe
if it was a real team, maybe I prefer Betcalf
for fantasy, especially with the price factored in. I think
Pittman's a really great play. My worry is also, what
does the quarterback back play look like if Rogers does
(08:17):
fall off, Because not only do we have this quarterback
that kind of plays slow, I mean, we liked it.
He doesn't run though. I like when quarterbacks run for
first downs because it does extend drives this Pittsburgh offense
from a macro standpoint on the passing side was just
really poor, you know, bottom five across the board no
matter how you slice it. I don't think I wanna
(08:39):
really invest too heavily in the Steelers. You could sell
me on Pittman, like you said, and I think I
might just want a one off it. If Pittman works
at the price, I'll take it. Metcalf feels like an overpay. Now,
I like to pick your brain for some of the
younger guys. How about this, Jeremy Bernard. I just say
it with that inflection, because I don't know much about
these players. He's the only one going inside the top
two hundred pick one eighty, and then it's Roman Wilson
(09:01):
two sixteen. So for would you agree, maybe Pittman is
the value and walk away. Do you think there's any
value in elite Pittsburgh stack? You know, best bowlers have
their you know, eye focused on that right now.
Speaker 2 (09:15):
Yeah, the best ball thing.
Speaker 3 (09:16):
I understand, because you do want to pivot away from
what is Chalky sometimes and.
Speaker 2 (09:21):
I get that.
Speaker 3 (09:22):
For me, it's like Jeremy Bernard, the young guy in Dynasty.
I've been doing a lot of Dynasty drafts. Those rookie
drafts and he's going in the second round, and I
think that's fair because I think he's talented. But Aaron
Rodgers hasn't had the greatest track record of working really
well with these young receivers. He tends to have a
very long learning curve and a very short leash with
these guys. So I'm staying away from Jeremy Bernard for
(09:43):
a redraft. Like I said, maybe I'll dabble in best Ball,
but it's really Michael Pittman or bust. And I just
hope that Mike McCarthy is able to dial up a
heavier passing game that makes some of this seem foolish
to look back on right now, But that's still just hope.
Speaker 2 (09:58):
It's not really a real I don't.
Speaker 1 (10:00):
Think, man. I don't think there's a better point to make.
I want to move on after that. The learning curve
point with Rogers and the youngsters is huge. Plus can
that offense really carry three pass catchers? I don't know.
I only mentioned because Bernard's getting a lot of love,
which tends to happen with rookies. It's the end of Bay,
which means it's time to get crazy for these youngsters
and again, I don't mean to knock them. They might
(10:21):
be fine. Next big news note, I mean, if this
is not like the eye roll of the century wide
receiver on the Chiefs, Rashie Rice to be jailed for
probation violation. He'll miss OTAs and mini camp after knee surgery.
So there's like a little one to two skdoo did
a little left right punch. Here's the news. Recovery for
(10:42):
the procedures expected to take two months, which sets them
up for a return to football activities just in time
for the start of training camp. As always, Jake, nothing
to worry about. Don't worry, guys, it's okay. That's assuming
the fourth year pro is able to rehab properly whilst
while serving his sentence. I mean, there are so many
uncertainties here. One, he's going off at ADP twenty four.
(11:05):
I think we can figuret that he'll absolutely drop. So
let's start there, Jake, is there a price in where
that you'd be interested in Rashie Rice. Let's try out
to roll eyes anymore than I already did.
Speaker 3 (11:16):
I will keep my eyes focused straight ahead as I
say this. I won't even consider him until round four.
That's the very first time that I would even look
in his direction, and it would there would have to
be a lot of things that go right from now
until the start of season when I start to get
to the point where I'm going to be drafting more
close to the season. If you're doing it right now,
I'm not even looking probably until round five at this
(11:38):
current moment. It's a matter of how many It's not
even just what's going to happen with his rehab, John
And yeah, can he rehab easily in that thirty day
span for jail, which seems to be a crucial time
span for his recovery.
Speaker 1 (11:53):
I don't know.
Speaker 2 (11:54):
It's not the ritz Carlton.
Speaker 3 (11:55):
He's not going to have access to all the full
rehab equipment and trainers and all that that he would otherwise.
So that is a concern. But also, and maybe I'm
overthinking this, I'm almost more concerned about what's potentially the
next thing that could happen.
Speaker 2 (12:09):
Now, this is a series of events for this guy.
Speaker 3 (12:12):
I know, we can make the argument that this infraction
was a small one.
Speaker 2 (12:17):
It was a probation thing.
Speaker 3 (12:19):
You know, it was marijuana usage, and you can say
maybe it was an extreme penalty for him, but it happened,
and he also knew that was part of the deal
and it still happened. So it just feels like one
negative decision after another with this guy, and I don't
want to have to deal with the headaches. Maybe in
season of is he gonna do something else that negatively
impacts his ability to be on the field. So that's
(12:41):
why I say, even starting at round four, as we
get closer, it's still gonna make me nervous, but I'll
at least start to consider it. I probably will just
avoid him.
Speaker 2 (12:50):
This is me.
Speaker 3 (12:50):
Talking big, like I would even draft him in round
four or round five, and I probably won't even do it. John,
If do you have a threshold in mind right now.
Speaker 1 (12:58):
Where you do it is to push him down where
I'll have exactly zero percent. Just I have no confidence
in all this stuff bothers me. The Mahomes question was
like I had one eyebrow up and now he has
his own issue lower body, twitchy player who needs to
(13:18):
create instant separation with speedbursts. These are all things that
you know, take time to recover from. If they ever
come back, then you have I don't want to talk
bad about people, but you know what At the very least,
it's an objective and quantifiable failure of discipline, and if
you want to make that part of your analysis, I
(13:39):
think that's fair. The person who no, I don't think
the infraction itself is jailable or even worthy of suspension. However,
you know the rules on thin ice. It would have
been a good time to show your organization, your team
meets yourself that you could keep it clean, keep it
(13:59):
between the lines, take it serious for whatever it is
ninety days or whatever it is. So yeah, I don't
know if they have kettlebells or parachute training, you know,
in the county lock up, like who knows. So there's
just way too much going off for me. I'm not interested.
Oh man, if if the pick starts with a five,
meaning if we're into the fifties, maybe I will capitulate
(14:21):
because the potential still is tremendous when it matters the most.
At the end of the season. The reports on the
homes are really good. Apparently he's out like swinging golf
clubs on Instagram or something, but everyone says he looks
really you know, he looks good and he's on track.
So if he's gonna be back to full strength in
the double digit weeks. Maybe Rice is enticing, but I
(14:42):
don't know. And then you have the whole thing if
you're even okay with drafting these terrible people. All right,
last news note, it's out of Atlanta, and I think
the question right the headline would be how many quarterbacks
do you have? Jake? When you have two? Right? They
brought in to U two. I'm doing air quotes for
the audio people to back up Michael Pennix, except Tua
(15:04):
is going ADP twoh eight and Penis is going at
QB two thirteen. When asked about splitting first team reps
at falcon OTAs head coach Kevin Stebanski said, and I quote,
it's all very intentional. Well, that's a relief to know
that he meant to put the quarterback back there. Jake,
(15:24):
I don't know. This is all of the kind of
coach speak that worries me. We don't know who's gonna
be the QB. What do you think about the Atlanta situation?
Do you think there's big value here? Do you draft
them both in let's say it's like a super flex league.
Let's say it's a super flex Best Bowl League. How
does it impact the Falcons talking about the quarterback game
(15:45):
there in the dirty dirty it bothers me.
Speaker 3 (15:47):
I mean, this is one of those things that I
try not to get so up in arms about because
it's early. We're still in May and we're talking about
voluntary OTAs. Who's getting how many first team reps? This
seems to track actually, which what I had thought was
going to happen with this team. You bring in another
left handed quarterback super cheap, you're barely paying to anything.
(16:10):
You have still a little bit unproven young quarterback, and
Michael Pennix. It's not the worst decision to just say
we're gonna let you guys fight it out now. They
can say one thing that he was gonna be backing
him up, and that's maybe because you want to instill
some confidence in the younger guy. Or you can have
(16:31):
them split reps because you truly want to see what
you have in this quarterback that you've never coached before.
I just I don't like either of these guys. I
haven't liked either of these guys from a drafting perspective,
So this whole split not split thing, I don't really care.
All I care about is can both of these guys
make Drake London a sustainable fantasy asset, and I think.
Speaker 1 (16:53):
They never can.
Speaker 2 (16:54):
I think they both can.
Speaker 3 (16:56):
So I'm completely fine with whoever gets the split because
somebody else is gonna be starting them for their fantasy team.
Speaker 1 (17:02):
Okay, so I guess let me kick it back too quick.
So even if you're not in love with the QB situation,
it's not preventing you from paying up the premium, and
that I think is a big question, right, you need
to have confidence in the engine of the offense if
they're gonna have two players going in the top whatever
eighteen overall, right, Bijon consensus number one or number two pick.
(17:24):
London is not going to get out of the second
round of any twelve teams drafts this year. So okay,
so you feel confident. I was actually thinking about that
with the best Bowl brain. Of course, right now, I
don't think I'm going with the quarterbacks, but maybe it
actually gives me some confidence to go further with London.
Worried that maybe if Pennix was bad or gets hurt,
(17:46):
you know, he goes down with the ship talking about
Drake London and maybe even Bijeon where hey having a
viable quarterback. Whatever you think about two, I think at
the very least he's a fantastic backup. Right if he
ends up as the two, I think he's a perfectly
crimulent backup in the end. So that should keep the
rest of the pieces afloat. What do you think about that?
Kind of a milk toast, kind of cop it out
a little bit, but what do you think about that
(18:07):
where maybe one plus one is three somehow?
Speaker 3 (18:09):
Well, First of all, excellent use of the word cromulate.
I haven't heard anybody use cromulate, And yes, but I
do think that, yeah, what you're trying to project at
some level of confidence into the really high draft picks,
especially in your fantasy drafts, Drake London, I think it's
okay to go heavily target now Kyle Pitts. When we
(18:30):
start talking about Kyle Pitts, I think it's a different
discussion John. That's the guy where I just don't like
Pits in particular.
Speaker 2 (18:37):
Anyways.
Speaker 3 (18:38):
I think he was propped up massively by the games
that he got to play without Drake London last year.
I don't think the quarterback thing is an issue for him.
I don't think the quarterback thing is an issue for
Bjeon Robinson for different reasons. Bijeon's going to be Bejon, So like,
I don't think that the split between the quarterbacks is
the thing that we need to worry about for the
ancillary pieces. It's just if you want to draft these
(19:00):
quarterbacks are not from my perspective.
Speaker 1 (19:02):
Yeah, and I don't unless they make If there's the
definitive clean need Panicx's guy, we're gonna go with him
as the one and two is the backup, then I
might draft him later on because that uncertainty. Again, if
you're using super flex brain right now, we're best ball
stuff to get who could be the number one quarterback
(19:23):
for what we think is gonna be a winning team
with consensus, fantastic elite pieces around him. That smells like
a value to me, Especially with Tua going first. I
think I think that's misplaced. Not like I have a
strong take. The one thing I do is, and I
was thinking about this guy was getting too deep into
the wieze between number one and number two overall, Gibbs
(19:44):
and Bijon and Tua. You know when he put h
in the history books, the way he throws to the
running back, and imagine if Bijeon takes on that pass load,
he'd probably be the a one with a bullet, if
that's possible to leave a guy like gives them the
So some interesting stuff, news and notes. We'll keep it up,
you know, we'll keep on top of everything. Let's switch
(20:06):
focus real quick. Let me shift gears and change my
spreadsheet tab. Let me take a quick break. I'm gonna
get right back to you, Jake. Hold on, all right,
let's pick it back up. I wanted to get into
some strength of schedule stuff, and I'm not going to
bury my own need here, Jake. I'm a quank guy,
I'm a better I'm a handicapper. I can't get into
(20:29):
the schedule stuff. We have such a difficult time predicting
Sunday on Saturday. The best handicappers, analyst, pundits, coaches, GMS players,
human beings cannot predict a single score twelve hours before kickoff,
let alone fifteen, sixteen, seventeen weeks out. So I'd like
(20:51):
to see the strength stuff, but maybe only because I
think it may influence markets. Now, I hope that didn't
burst your bubble. If you have a strong take, I'm
willing to concede talk to you about strength to schedule
even just to start how you digest it, what you're
looking for.
Speaker 3 (21:05):
Yeah, I don't have a strong opinion on strength to
schedule because there's so much year to year variance in
the NFL. Even teams that we can just maybe check
mark off as being bad. We're just like, well, it's
the Browns, the Browns are going to be bad. Well,
if it's the Jets, the Jets are going to be bad.
They could surprise us. There is massive overhauls happening with
(21:28):
these teams every offseason, So I don't want to be
so arrogant as to just be able to copy and
paste last year to this year. What I will say
is the strength and schedule stuff, for me is a
tiebreaker sometimes for some of these very closely valued players,
especially if you just look at like the first half
of the year's strength to schedule. I think that's more
(21:49):
important than the season as a whole, because I just think, again,
there's too much variance, too much injuries happen to be
able to look at a week fifteen, this is what
we expect to happen in Week fifteen, that's so far
out John, we don't know, Like you said, we don't
know day to day, week to week most of the time.
But some of these, you know teams, you go, well,
they look like they really have an easy strength to schedule,
(22:13):
you know. I mean, I look at some of these
and like the Giants, for example, it's like kinda thank
god that the Giants look like they're going to be
okay in the first half of the of the year
from an offensive perspective, because they're playing without Malik Neighbors
potentially potentially for a couple of games to open up.
(22:33):
And I go, okay, they're playing the Cowboys, the Titans,
the Cardinals, the Commanders in that stretch. They have good
to great offenses that group, and the Giants defense is
presumably bad, So I go, okay, maybe a guy like
Isaiah Likely, who we've talked about a lot, as like
a tight end sleeper. It makes me even more confident
to go out and get him. But that's the kind
(22:55):
of stuff that I get into the weeds with. Not
a lot of this matters that much for my view.
Speaker 1 (23:00):
There you go and totally redeem yourself, right, That's exactly
what I'm talking about. Now. I had to go looking
for the Giants. They weren't. I didn't have them listed,
you know, for d chess. Here I listed the best
five in the bottom five, the Giants leaned in the middle.
And what you did is my favorite thing is add
nuanced and context of things that need them. And that's
(23:21):
a great pick a team that might kind of fall
by the wayside, and maybe as long as they're not
facing the most difficult teams you can get out in
front of picks at me, not say Iffy, but we
think we're taking a bit of a chance on So
I actually do like that. Now I want to I
like to expose my old scars, you know, for the public,
and but it's pertinent to the conversation and it has
(23:43):
to do with how unpredictable these things are. I had
to go back on the year because you know, we
mentally blocked these things out. So it's twenty twenty three
and I remember it. I remember very clearly because you
mentioned Cleveland and all of the best ball bros and
all of the schedule bros were going, you know, nuts
over who is indoors and who is playing who, and
(24:04):
to make sure you needed to make sure to avoid
the Jets and the Browns. They'd be playing in Super
Bowl week, Fantasy super Bowl week, and you couldn't possibly
you must avoid this at all costs. That game ended
thirty seven to twenty and was a fantasy circus. I'm
looking at it right now. Flacco went for over three
(24:27):
hundred and three. It was It was an absolute circus.
And like the game that you needed to win all
of the monies, you know, Trancibion out of Mantzi out
of Monster Game. It was just nuts. Yeah, Brecee Hall
went from like one hundred and ninety total yards. He
had twelve catches and two scores. Just really crazy stuff.
And I know all these things happened in the vacuum
(24:48):
and their independent events, but that's really my point is
I like how you did it. Don't go too crazy,
look at it, try and discern something without over overreaction,
and have it just you know, add a layer to
an already tough decision that I think is just the
perfect way to do this stuff. Now, how about the
teams that I mentioned, You know, at the top of
(25:10):
the bottom, so the hardest schedules, and this is by
win percentage. Last year, what you poked the very obvious
hole in we don't know a ton about defenses in
particular don't necessarily tend to carry over, which I find
very weird. In baseball, it's pitching. You would think that works.
I would think defense would be the thing that sticks right.
(25:32):
It's you're imposing the will of stopping. But it proves
mathematically to not be the case. Chicago Bears are at
the top and now have a quick note. So Chicago,
I really don't have much. I think they play a
balanced offense. I really wouldn't be too worried. Miami was next.
I think you have to worry rookie quarterback lack of weapons,
but also probably a parenthesise wheels up for Devid h
(25:55):
Chan because if they're gonna be playing from negative game scripts,
he's gonna catch one hundred and twenty balls. Then third
is Arizona. Hardest schedule for Arizona. I put a green
light for everybody because we saw what a fantasy circus
the desert turns into when Arizona is behind. So I
think those maybe places where you're saying, oh, maybe we
do like the Cardinal offense because they're going to be
(26:16):
terrible predictably. So what do you think about that maybe
do you think I missed anything with the Bears? How
do you digest the toughest schedules? Take it wherever you like?
Speaker 3 (26:24):
Yep, the toughest schedule thing is again more useful in
my opinion, front loaded to look at the front half
of the season and say, Okay, how hard is this
thing truly going to be?
Speaker 2 (26:36):
And you're not wrong?
Speaker 3 (26:38):
Like there are now you looked at it differently with
like Arizona. For me, I actually went different and I said,
Arizona has a really hard strength of schedule. We know
that last year they were passing way more above average
than even the most pass heavy teams because they had
a decimated backfield, They had injuries kind of dealing with
(27:03):
you know, some of these players going out, Marv Harrison Junior, etc.
So when when Jacoby Brissett's passing forty times a game,
you go, well, that's fine for fantasy. So I understand
the playing from behind concept, but I honestly think that
they're just good enough now to where they're not going
to be playing from behind and get you the garbage
(27:23):
time that you want. So I'm actually staying away from
like Jacoby Brissett certainly is not going to be somebody
that I'm going after. But he's got his others. He's
holding out with a contract thing potentially, and there's some
other beij flags we have to worry about with him.
But it actually gives me pause about drafting Jeremiah Love.
I'd been really high on Jeremiah Love, thinking I know
he's a rookie, but I'll take him in, you know,
(27:46):
the second round and be happy.
Speaker 2 (27:47):
I'm kind of scooted off of that just a little
bit with the hard.
Speaker 3 (27:49):
Strength of schedule to start, because I don't know that
he's gonna be as dominant as you want and need
him to be right away. I don't care again, if
he's gonna get me a bunch of points in week twelve,
Am I gonna be patient enough to hold him and
not want to trade him away before that even happens.
Speaker 1 (28:04):
I don't.
Speaker 2 (28:05):
I don't think so, So I'm probably gonna not touch
him until round three.
Speaker 1 (28:07):
Now. Yeah, there's a couple of ways to look at that,
and I don't think I don't think you're wrong. I
think it's a it's the rational and very strong counter
to what I'm saying. Right One side of the coin
is negative game scripts and lots of passing. The other
side of the coin is defense is not so binary.
As you know, facing a good defense means behind points.
(28:29):
Sometimes facing a good defense, what does it really mean?
It means lots of disguise pressures, It means safety is
coming out of the backfield, and it means lots of
deceptive schematics that are very difficult for rookies to pick
up on. Right. These are all these are the reasons
why rookies fail. I've I've been joking about taking all
these backup veterans because they know where to stand. They
(28:51):
you know, and people laugh about that, but it's legit
the truth. You it's something that you were kind of
hinting towards with Aaron Rodgers. The second you miss it
alignment or you miss a rotational call, you know, left split.
If he wants you over on the right hand side
to pick up a pressure coming that way and you
don't get it, your time is short here, Parter. So
(29:16):
I'm not pushing these guys up, and I just kind
of cold on the Cardinals. Maybe they'll bad strength to schedule.
The high strength of schedule in the pants and gets
you back on Michael Wilson. You could tell I've been
trying to target and identify late wideouts that could pop
because I've been more focused on getting my running backs early.
So if you could have been drafting and I'm trying
(29:37):
to get the muscle memory going, giving up good advice
for everyone, but stuff that works, you can't say, well,
take all the early whiteouts and all the early running backs.
You can't have both those things. Yeah, it'd be a
wonderful world if we could, but we can't do that.
So I've been looking for guys like that. How about
the flip side now, So off the schedules, I've got Cleveland.
They're gonna need this need to work out pretty good
(29:58):
for these duds like Cleveland Orleans, which I like because
I was kind of high on them. So when I
see that maybe the soft one, maybe I am acting
on it. Where a guy like Shuck, I think second
year I'm expecting some growth wouldn't hurt to be facing
Bay defenses. And the third was Cincinnati. Who I mean,
if you were wheels up on Cincinnati anyway, you should
have been. One note I had on Cincinnati that I
(30:20):
found kept popping up was the wide receiver three situation. Right,
everyone is very high on chasing Higgins, as they should be,
but like we've seen Yoshivas kind of do some work.
He goes mostly undrafted, and if they're gonna be a
thirty eight point a week team, again, I think everybody
could eat. So what do you think about those teams Cleveland,
(30:40):
New Orleans, Cincy or anything else you have to add
about the weakest schedules.
Speaker 3 (30:44):
The Bengals is really interesting, and I think you're right.
I think also the other thing that we see sometimes
with these offenses, when they really get the chance to
dominate their opposition, which could very well happen with Cincinnati
especially proven that their defense should theoretically be better after
the investments that they made. Then you do start to
see towards the end of games some of these other
(31:05):
wide receivers just get more involved. Jamar Chase doesn't have
to go out there in the fourth quarter when they're
up by twenty points and do what he does. He
might want to just save himself, or the coaches rather
would probably want to save him a little bit. So
we even in situations like that, you could get some
garbage time from Yoshivas. I'm also looking now at Chase Brown,
which is somebody who's maybe just been kind of a
(31:27):
name in the cloud. He's just been kind of this
sure whatever. He seems fine, at least from my perspective.
But now I'm going, well, if they have this easy
of a schedule, I should probably be.
Speaker 2 (31:40):
Giving him better shrift.
Speaker 3 (31:41):
I should be bumping him up just a little bit
more because they didn't add any real competition for him.
So Chase Brown is somebody who stands out to me
from the Bengals. I also do think, yeah, the Saints
should be fine. I was already heavily invested in Dialer Shuck,
so this was more of a s I have relief
when I saw this, And with the Browns again, I
(32:03):
look at the running back and I say, Okay, Quinn
Shawn Judkins. I've never been a huge believer, just because
I think his pass catching abilities are capped, his touchdown
scoring opportunities are a little capped. But the strength the
schedule does help that. So he is somebody that I'm
more comfortable drafting in you know, round four, round five,
than I was a month ago.
Speaker 1 (32:25):
Love every bit of that. That was a really great
tease for next week. As we wrap up this edition
of the f FW. Jacob, it's the injury stuff because
Judkins is another one of those guys. He dissocated his
right ankle and fractured his fibula, So next week when
you'll be like, maybe we'll do it next week, if
not really coming soon all the injury guys during the year,
and how to treat him. So from Big John and
(32:46):
Cheek and all the lovely people here at f FW,
thank you and we'll see you next week. Have a
great weekend, everybody. Take care
Speaker 2 (33:00):
You
Time now for Fantasy Football Weekly from iHeartRadio, your weekly
source for the nation's best fantasy speculation and advice. Hello,
Welcome back through Fantasy Football Weekly with your host, faithful
narrator John mcgeza at the very creative handle on Social
(00:25):
John Lagaza, and my body and yours, mister Jake Trowbridge. Jake,
feels like a little bit of the quiet before the storm, right,
we had so much movement, so much action. The draft happens,
the snow globe gets shaken, and I was scrambling doing
ranks for moving players. And now this week things are
kind of settling. So we'll talk about some news and notes,
(00:47):
then some strength of schedule stuff that came out, and
everybody was really excited. How are you doing, my friend.
Speaker 2 (00:52):
I'm doing good.
Speaker 3 (00:53):
I'm trying to weed my way through some of this
white noise that happens this time of year. Though this
is the lull where you said it, there's not a
lot going on, but you know, voluntary OTAs are kicking off,
and this is guy where some of the weird offseason
narrative stuff, the fluff starts to come out that you
really gotta do well to sift through. So some of
the stuff I know we're going to talk about today
(01:14):
is actually impactful, and some of this other stuff out
there is just a little bit junkie.
Speaker 1 (01:18):
I think the word fluff is really fitting. It's like
junk food. You could consume as much of it as
you want, but it might just be a negative right
at the end of the day, a little satisfying as
you're getting your rumor on. But then, like you said,
is it actionable? And if you act on something that
it's not actual, you're only going to hurt yourself. I
(01:40):
try and tell myself this every year, whether it's baseball
spring training or NFL with these exhibition games, with the preseason, ignore, ignore, ignore,
just pay attention to health. I know sometimes there are
some signals in playing time, rotations and stuff, but I'll
be honest, I e betterrow sticking with my guns before
(02:01):
we dive in. Do you have a take on that,
because that's one of my most interesting questions for tried
and true you know, fantasy players and analysts, Well, how
do you treat the preseason? Do you even care?
Speaker 3 (02:10):
I try to ignore it preseason unless it's something that
is so out of left field, like wow, I can't
believe that they trotted out Joe Burrow for an entire
preseason game. That must mean something, because otherwise they're just
insane to do that. Obviously, that's a silly hypothetical. But otherwise, no,
I don't. I know some of these guys are still
(02:31):
fighting for roster spots, but in general, the preseason has
gotten so shrunken down, I think, and it's become a
little bit less meaningful than it used to once upon
a time, with fewer games and all that stuff. So
I just try to, uh, as you said, avoid it
and not overreact.
Speaker 1 (02:47):
Yeah, a lot of these coaches, and bless their hearts,
you know, they're taking their job seriously and we want
them to do that, but some of them think they're
protecting state secrets during these exhibition games, and I think
it actually hurts them where we want some repetition and
like you mentioned, guys will be sitting. But then some
analysts overreact. Did you see this third string back got
first quarter run? Those are the notes that I'm trying
(03:10):
to ignore, because then you see these giant moves and
drafting markets. All right, how about the actual news it
did happen. Old Man Rogers is on the move. I
think we were pretty much on that. It felt like
a foregone conclusion, but we mentioned the meeting that was
not Well, it did happen. Aaron Rodgers does sign a
one year contract extension to return to the Steelers. Then
(03:30):
there was a semi cole in like the next day
or two, he says he's going to retire afterwards, this
is it. Well from all of us, mister Rogers, thank goodness,
but for the time being, for the time being, Jake,
you know, this does have drafting impact. I saw a
couple analysts say that Rogers, up to date in Best
Ball drafts or maybe even some dynasty stuff, was one
of the more undervalued players. Right because he's off the
(03:53):
board and now he's gonna start. What do you think
about Rogers and then his impact on the steel and
how you're treating him going forward.
Speaker 3 (04:02):
I mean, I think I said last week, John that
it was getting to a point where like they were
just waiting and waiting and waiting on him, and I
didn't really get the appeal of that. And even from fantasy,
I was thinking, is it really going to be that
much worse if they tried out? You know, the rookie
Drew Alaar or last year's rookie, Will Howard or whoever.
Would it be worse than what we saw from Rogers
(04:23):
last year, who was getting the ball out of his
hands as fast as possible to avoid anybody breathing on him.
And it was just really a downtick. For all those
fantasy pieces outside of like Kenny Gainwell, I will say
I'm a little more interested now that he has admitted
this is his last season, Like I think we could
have all assumed that, but a thank you for saying
(04:44):
that so we don't have to drag this out even
longer into another offseason. But also maybe if he knows
that it's really his last season, it gets him to
play with a little less you know, conservatism, Like he's
a little more loose with it. He's trying to and
his legacy on top. Maybe it just forces him to
up his game a tiny bit. So for the fantasy pieces,
(05:06):
I'm trying to talk myself into some of these guys
from that perspective, like.
Speaker 2 (05:10):
Michael Pittman, DK Metcalf.
Speaker 3 (05:11):
Maybe I'm around a little bit more on them, but
I think I'm probably the outlier and staying away from
most of these guys.
Speaker 1 (05:17):
John Yeah, you really nailed it. The word for me
is aggression and something that Rogers was always known for
and that's not necessarily something we expect to drop off
with each right, because that's really a cerebral thing as
long as you have the arm talent, and that I
certainly think he does. Is because more about what you said,
(05:38):
they're really trying to avoid in taking hits, which they should,
but when it really starts to reflect onto the spreadsheet
and then onto the team, I think it really hurts you.
Rogers had a six air yard per tenth, Like that's
not going to cut it. One of my favorite stats
As we go, we'll get into some of my quarterback analysis.
I like percentage of throws to the sticks. I was
(05:59):
talking going to Mike Sando, and Sando has a real
great reputation in NFL circles. I think he might even
run with some GMS and stuff, and he would talk
about that all the time, and it really ranked me
because that really adds like a contextual element to efficiency. Right.
We want high completion rates and we want, you know,
(06:21):
deep targets, but not always what do we always want
the ball to go to the sticks that it was
at thirty three percent, so just a third of his
attempts last year went to the stick. Was So my
point is, Jake a low a dot like a low attempt,
it's not the end of the world providing it's getting
to the sticks because it means you're effective running. That
just wasn't the case with this pass game. So now
(06:44):
to the draft room itself. These are real time prices.
DK metcalf eightp. Seventy six. I won't bury the lead
for me. That feels very rich. Michael Pittman at one
oh six. All of a sudden, I'm like, maybe if
Rogers is gonna get it out. We've seen Pittman operate
with some success at shorter and intermediate routes. Do you
(07:04):
have a take on either one of them, either both, neither?
What do you think?
Speaker 3 (07:07):
I'm more into Pittman because he should be presumably the
shorter I doubt. I don't want to say dump off
because that is not what it's going to be necessarily,
but he will be the shorter pass guy. I would
like to see any of these guys be able to
catch the ball short and have massive yak potential. I
don't know that I see any of these guys having
(07:27):
both of those things unfortunately, but I would still be
more in on Michael Pittman, especially at that price.
Speaker 1 (07:33):
Yeah, metchalv is so interesting that he's got all the
yak on the deep target. So it really is very
much an all or nothing thing. I don't want to
say like on some tape guru, but just watching it
didn't really seem to click for me. He looked a
step slow, The continuity between the two didn't seem to
be there. Nice to have it back. Maybe that works.
(07:55):
We might have that same issue with Pittman. I think
Pittman is a better player right now apples to apples
that Metcalf. I think for fantasy purposes, at least maybe
if it was a real team, maybe I prefer Betcalf
for fantasy, especially with the price factored in. I think
Pittman's a really great play. My worry is also, what
does the quarterback back play look like if Rogers does
(08:17):
fall off, Because not only do we have this quarterback
that kind of plays slow, I mean, we liked it.
He doesn't run though. I like when quarterbacks run for
first downs because it does extend drives this Pittsburgh offense
from a macro standpoint on the passing side was just
really poor, you know, bottom five across the board no
matter how you slice it. I don't think I wanna
(08:39):
really invest too heavily in the Steelers. You could sell
me on Pittman, like you said, and I think I
might just want a one off it. If Pittman works
at the price, I'll take it. Metcalf feels like an overpay. Now,
I like to pick your brain for some of the
younger guys. How about this, Jeremy Bernard. I just say
it with that inflection, because I don't know much about
these players. He's the only one going inside the top
two hundred pick one eighty, and then it's Roman Wilson
(09:01):
two sixteen. So for would you agree, maybe Pittman is
the value and walk away. Do you think there's any
value in elite Pittsburgh stack? You know, best bowlers have
their you know, eye focused on that right now.
Speaker 2 (09:15):
Yeah, the best ball thing.
Speaker 3 (09:16):
I understand, because you do want to pivot away from
what is Chalky sometimes and.
Speaker 2 (09:21):
I get that.
Speaker 3 (09:22):
For me, it's like Jeremy Bernard, the young guy in Dynasty.
I've been doing a lot of Dynasty drafts. Those rookie
drafts and he's going in the second round, and I
think that's fair because I think he's talented. But Aaron
Rodgers hasn't had the greatest track record of working really
well with these young receivers. He tends to have a
very long learning curve and a very short leash with
these guys. So I'm staying away from Jeremy Bernard for
(09:43):
a redraft. Like I said, maybe I'll dabble in best Ball,
but it's really Michael Pittman or bust. And I just
hope that Mike McCarthy is able to dial up a
heavier passing game that makes some of this seem foolish
to look back on right now, But that's still just hope.
Speaker 2 (09:58):
It's not really a real I don't.
Speaker 1 (10:00):
Think, man. I don't think there's a better point to make.
I want to move on after that. The learning curve
point with Rogers and the youngsters is huge. Plus can
that offense really carry three pass catchers? I don't know.
I only mentioned because Bernard's getting a lot of love,
which tends to happen with rookies. It's the end of Bay,
which means it's time to get crazy for these youngsters
and again, I don't mean to knock them. They might
(10:21):
be fine. Next big news note, I mean, if this
is not like the eye roll of the century wide
receiver on the Chiefs, Rashie Rice to be jailed for
probation violation. He'll miss OTAs and mini camp after knee surgery.
So there's like a little one to two skdoo did
a little left right punch. Here's the news. Recovery for
(10:42):
the procedures expected to take two months, which sets them
up for a return to football activities just in time
for the start of training camp. As always, Jake, nothing
to worry about. Don't worry, guys, it's okay. That's assuming
the fourth year pro is able to rehab properly whilst
while serving his sentence. I mean, there are so many
uncertainties here. One, he's going off at ADP twenty four.
(11:05):
I think we can figuret that he'll absolutely drop. So
let's start there, Jake, is there a price in where
that you'd be interested in Rashie Rice. Let's try out
to roll eyes anymore than I already did.
Speaker 3 (11:16):
I will keep my eyes focused straight ahead as I
say this. I won't even consider him until round four.
That's the very first time that I would even look
in his direction, and it would there would have to
be a lot of things that go right from now
until the start of season when I start to get
to the point where I'm going to be drafting more
close to the season. If you're doing it right now,
I'm not even looking probably until round five at this
(11:38):
current moment. It's a matter of how many It's not
even just what's going to happen with his rehab, John
And yeah, can he rehab easily in that thirty day
span for jail, which seems to be a crucial time
span for his recovery.
Speaker 1 (11:53):
I don't know.
Speaker 2 (11:54):
It's not the ritz Carlton.
Speaker 3 (11:55):
He's not going to have access to all the full
rehab equipment and trainers and all that that he would otherwise.
So that is a concern. But also, and maybe I'm
overthinking this, I'm almost more concerned about what's potentially the
next thing that could happen.
Speaker 2 (12:09):
Now, this is a series of events for this guy.
Speaker 3 (12:12):
I know, we can make the argument that this infraction
was a small one.
Speaker 2 (12:17):
It was a probation thing.
Speaker 3 (12:19):
You know, it was marijuana usage, and you can say
maybe it was an extreme penalty for him, but it happened,
and he also knew that was part of the deal
and it still happened. So it just feels like one
negative decision after another with this guy, and I don't
want to have to deal with the headaches. Maybe in
season of is he gonna do something else that negatively
impacts his ability to be on the field. So that's
(12:41):
why I say, even starting at round four, as we
get closer, it's still gonna make me nervous, but I'll
at least start to consider it. I probably will just
avoid him.
Speaker 2 (12:50):
This is me.
Speaker 3 (12:50):
Talking big, like I would even draft him in round
four or round five, and I probably won't even do it. John,
If do you have a threshold in mind right now.
Speaker 1 (12:58):
Where you do it is to push him down where
I'll have exactly zero percent. Just I have no confidence
in all this stuff bothers me. The Mahomes question was
like I had one eyebrow up and now he has
his own issue lower body, twitchy player who needs to
(13:18):
create instant separation with speedbursts. These are all things that
you know, take time to recover from. If they ever
come back, then you have I don't want to talk
bad about people, but you know what At the very least,
it's an objective and quantifiable failure of discipline, and if
you want to make that part of your analysis, I
(13:39):
think that's fair. The person who no, I don't think
the infraction itself is jailable or even worthy of suspension. However,
you know the rules on thin ice. It would have
been a good time to show your organization, your team
meets yourself that you could keep it clean, keep it
(13:59):
between the lines, take it serious for whatever it is
ninety days or whatever it is. So yeah, I don't
know if they have kettlebells or parachute training, you know,
in the county lock up, like who knows. So there's
just way too much going off for me. I'm not interested.
Oh man, if if the pick starts with a five,
meaning if we're into the fifties, maybe I will capitulate
(14:21):
because the potential still is tremendous when it matters the most.
At the end of the season. The reports on the
homes are really good. Apparently he's out like swinging golf
clubs on Instagram or something, but everyone says he looks
really you know, he looks good and he's on track.
So if he's gonna be back to full strength in
the double digit weeks. Maybe Rice is enticing, but I
(14:42):
don't know. And then you have the whole thing if
you're even okay with drafting these terrible people. All right,
last news note, it's out of Atlanta, and I think
the question right the headline would be how many quarterbacks
do you have? Jake? When you have two? Right? They
brought in to U two. I'm doing air quotes for
the audio people to back up Michael Pennix, except Tua
(15:04):
is going ADP twoh eight and Penis is going at
QB two thirteen. When asked about splitting first team reps
at falcon OTAs head coach Kevin Stebanski said, and I quote,
it's all very intentional. Well, that's a relief to know
that he meant to put the quarterback back there. Jake,
(15:24):
I don't know. This is all of the kind of
coach speak that worries me. We don't know who's gonna
be the QB. What do you think about the Atlanta situation?
Do you think there's big value here? Do you draft
them both in let's say it's like a super flex league.
Let's say it's a super flex Best Bowl League. How
does it impact the Falcons talking about the quarterback game
(15:45):
there in the dirty dirty it bothers me.
Speaker 3 (15:47):
I mean, this is one of those things that I
try not to get so up in arms about because
it's early. We're still in May and we're talking about
voluntary OTAs. Who's getting how many first team reps? This
seems to track actually, which what I had thought was
going to happen with this team. You bring in another
left handed quarterback super cheap, you're barely paying to anything.
(16:10):
You have still a little bit unproven young quarterback, and
Michael Pennix. It's not the worst decision to just say
we're gonna let you guys fight it out now. They
can say one thing that he was gonna be backing
him up, and that's maybe because you want to instill
some confidence in the younger guy. Or you can have
(16:31):
them split reps because you truly want to see what
you have in this quarterback that you've never coached before.
I just I don't like either of these guys. I
haven't liked either of these guys from a drafting perspective,
So this whole split not split thing, I don't really care.
All I care about is can both of these guys
make Drake London a sustainable fantasy asset, and I think.
Speaker 1 (16:53):
They never can.
Speaker 2 (16:54):
I think they both can.
Speaker 3 (16:56):
So I'm completely fine with whoever gets the split because
somebody else is gonna be starting them for their fantasy team.
Speaker 1 (17:02):
Okay, so I guess let me kick it back too quick.
So even if you're not in love with the QB situation,
it's not preventing you from paying up the premium, and
that I think is a big question, right, you need
to have confidence in the engine of the offense if
they're gonna have two players going in the top whatever
eighteen overall, right, Bijon consensus number one or number two pick.
(17:24):
London is not going to get out of the second
round of any twelve teams drafts this year. So okay,
so you feel confident. I was actually thinking about that
with the best Bowl brain. Of course, right now, I
don't think I'm going with the quarterbacks, but maybe it
actually gives me some confidence to go further with London.
Worried that maybe if Pennix was bad or gets hurt,
(17:46):
you know, he goes down with the ship talking about
Drake London and maybe even Bijeon where hey having a
viable quarterback. Whatever you think about two, I think at
the very least he's a fantastic backup. Right if he
ends up as the two, I think he's a perfectly
crimulent backup in the end. So that should keep the
rest of the pieces afloat. What do you think about that?
Kind of a milk toast, kind of cop it out
a little bit, but what do you think about that
(18:07):
where maybe one plus one is three somehow?
Speaker 3 (18:09):
Well, First of all, excellent use of the word cromulate.
I haven't heard anybody use cromulate, And yes, but I
do think that, yeah, what you're trying to project at
some level of confidence into the really high draft picks,
especially in your fantasy drafts, Drake London, I think it's
okay to go heavily target now Kyle Pitts. When we
(18:30):
start talking about Kyle Pitts, I think it's a different
discussion John. That's the guy where I just don't like
Pits in particular.
Speaker 2 (18:37):
Anyways.
Speaker 3 (18:38):
I think he was propped up massively by the games
that he got to play without Drake London last year.
I don't think the quarterback thing is an issue for him.
I don't think the quarterback thing is an issue for
Bjeon Robinson for different reasons. Bijeon's going to be Bejon, So like,
I don't think that the split between the quarterbacks is
the thing that we need to worry about for the
ancillary pieces. It's just if you want to draft these
(19:00):
quarterbacks are not from my perspective.
Speaker 1 (19:02):
Yeah, and I don't unless they make If there's the
definitive clean need Panicx's guy, we're gonna go with him
as the one and two is the backup, then I
might draft him later on because that uncertainty. Again, if
you're using super flex brain right now, we're best ball
stuff to get who could be the number one quarterback
(19:23):
for what we think is gonna be a winning team
with consensus, fantastic elite pieces around him. That smells like
a value to me, Especially with Tua going first. I
think I think that's misplaced. Not like I have a
strong take. The one thing I do is, and I
was thinking about this guy was getting too deep into
the wieze between number one and number two overall, Gibbs
(19:44):
and Bijon and Tua. You know when he put h
in the history books, the way he throws to the
running back, and imagine if Bijeon takes on that pass load,
he'd probably be the a one with a bullet, if
that's possible to leave a guy like gives them the
So some interesting stuff, news and notes. We'll keep it up,
you know, we'll keep on top of everything. Let's switch
(20:06):
focus real quick. Let me shift gears and change my
spreadsheet tab. Let me take a quick break. I'm gonna
get right back to you, Jake. Hold on, all right,
let's pick it back up. I wanted to get into
some strength of schedule stuff, and I'm not going to
bury my own need here, Jake. I'm a quank guy,
I'm a better I'm a handicapper. I can't get into
(20:29):
the schedule stuff. We have such a difficult time predicting
Sunday on Saturday. The best handicappers, analyst, pundits, coaches, GMS players,
human beings cannot predict a single score twelve hours before kickoff,
let alone fifteen, sixteen, seventeen weeks out. So I'd like
(20:51):
to see the strength stuff, but maybe only because I
think it may influence markets. Now, I hope that didn't
burst your bubble. If you have a strong take, I'm
willing to concede talk to you about strength to schedule
even just to start how you digest it, what you're
looking for.
Speaker 3 (21:05):
Yeah, I don't have a strong opinion on strength to
schedule because there's so much year to year variance in
the NFL. Even teams that we can just maybe check
mark off as being bad. We're just like, well, it's
the Browns, the Browns are going to be bad. Well,
if it's the Jets, the Jets are going to be bad.
They could surprise us. There is massive overhauls happening with
(21:28):
these teams every offseason, So I don't want to be
so arrogant as to just be able to copy and
paste last year to this year. What I will say
is the strength and schedule stuff, for me is a
tiebreaker sometimes for some of these very closely valued players,
especially if you just look at like the first half
of the year's strength to schedule. I think that's more
(21:49):
important than the season as a whole, because I just think, again,
there's too much variance, too much injuries happen to be
able to look at a week fifteen, this is what
we expect to happen in Week fifteen, that's so far
out John, we don't know, Like you said, we don't
know day to day, week to week most of the time.
But some of these, you know teams, you go, well,
they look like they really have an easy strength to schedule,
(22:13):
you know. I mean, I look at some of these
and like the Giants, for example, it's like kinda thank
god that the Giants look like they're going to be
okay in the first half of the of the year
from an offensive perspective, because they're playing without Malik Neighbors
potentially potentially for a couple of games to open up.
(22:33):
And I go, okay, they're playing the Cowboys, the Titans,
the Cardinals, the Commanders in that stretch. They have good
to great offenses that group, and the Giants defense is
presumably bad, So I go, okay, maybe a guy like
Isaiah Likely, who we've talked about a lot, as like
a tight end sleeper. It makes me even more confident
to go out and get him. But that's the kind
(22:55):
of stuff that I get into the weeds with. Not
a lot of this matters that much for my view.
Speaker 1 (23:00):
There you go and totally redeem yourself, right, That's exactly
what I'm talking about. Now. I had to go looking
for the Giants. They weren't. I didn't have them listed,
you know, for d chess. Here I listed the best
five in the bottom five, the Giants leaned in the middle.
And what you did is my favorite thing is add
nuanced and context of things that need them. And that's
(23:21):
a great pick a team that might kind of fall
by the wayside, and maybe as long as they're not
facing the most difficult teams you can get out in
front of picks at me, not say Iffy, but we
think we're taking a bit of a chance on So
I actually do like that. Now I want to I
like to expose my old scars, you know, for the public,
and but it's pertinent to the conversation and it has
(23:43):
to do with how unpredictable these things are. I had
to go back on the year because you know, we
mentally blocked these things out. So it's twenty twenty three
and I remember it. I remember very clearly because you
mentioned Cleveland and all of the best ball bros and
all of the schedule bros were going, you know, nuts
over who is indoors and who is playing who, and
(24:04):
to make sure you needed to make sure to avoid
the Jets and the Browns. They'd be playing in Super
Bowl week, Fantasy super Bowl week, and you couldn't possibly
you must avoid this at all costs. That game ended
thirty seven to twenty and was a fantasy circus. I'm
looking at it right now. Flacco went for over three
(24:27):
hundred and three. It was It was an absolute circus.
And like the game that you needed to win all
of the monies, you know, Trancibion out of Mantzi out
of Monster Game. It was just nuts. Yeah, Brecee Hall
went from like one hundred and ninety total yards. He
had twelve catches and two scores. Just really crazy stuff.
And I know all these things happened in the vacuum
(24:48):
and their independent events, but that's really my point is
I like how you did it. Don't go too crazy,
look at it, try and discern something without over overreaction,
and have it just you know, add a layer to
an already tough decision that I think is just the
perfect way to do this stuff. Now, how about the
teams that I mentioned, You know, at the top of
(25:10):
the bottom, so the hardest schedules, and this is by
win percentage. Last year, what you poked the very obvious
hole in we don't know a ton about defenses in
particular don't necessarily tend to carry over, which I find
very weird. In baseball, it's pitching. You would think that works.
I would think defense would be the thing that sticks right.
(25:32):
It's you're imposing the will of stopping. But it proves
mathematically to not be the case. Chicago Bears are at
the top and now have a quick note. So Chicago,
I really don't have much. I think they play a
balanced offense. I really wouldn't be too worried. Miami was next.
I think you have to worry rookie quarterback lack of weapons,
but also probably a parenthesise wheels up for Devid h
(25:55):
Chan because if they're gonna be playing from negative game scripts,
he's gonna catch one hundred and twenty balls. Then third
is Arizona. Hardest schedule for Arizona. I put a green
light for everybody because we saw what a fantasy circus
the desert turns into when Arizona is behind. So I
think those maybe places where you're saying, oh, maybe we
do like the Cardinal offense because they're going to be
(26:16):
terrible predictably. So what do you think about that maybe
do you think I missed anything with the Bears? How
do you digest the toughest schedules? Take it wherever you like?
Speaker 3 (26:24):
Yep, the toughest schedule thing is again more useful in
my opinion, front loaded to look at the front half
of the season and say, Okay, how hard is this
thing truly going to be?
Speaker 2 (26:36):
And you're not wrong?
Speaker 3 (26:38):
Like there are now you looked at it differently with
like Arizona. For me, I actually went different and I said,
Arizona has a really hard strength of schedule. We know
that last year they were passing way more above average
than even the most pass heavy teams because they had
a decimated backfield, They had injuries kind of dealing with
(27:03):
you know, some of these players going out, Marv Harrison Junior, etc.
So when when Jacoby Brissett's passing forty times a game,
you go, well, that's fine for fantasy. So I understand
the playing from behind concept, but I honestly think that
they're just good enough now to where they're not going
to be playing from behind and get you the garbage
(27:23):
time that you want. So I'm actually staying away from
like Jacoby Brissett certainly is not going to be somebody
that I'm going after. But he's got his others. He's
holding out with a contract thing potentially, and there's some
other beij flags we have to worry about with him.
But it actually gives me pause about drafting Jeremiah Love.
I'd been really high on Jeremiah Love, thinking I know
he's a rookie, but I'll take him in, you know,
(27:46):
the second round and be happy.
Speaker 2 (27:47):
I'm kind of scooted off of that just a little
bit with the hard.
Speaker 3 (27:49):
Strength of schedule to start, because I don't know that
he's gonna be as dominant as you want and need
him to be right away. I don't care again, if
he's gonna get me a bunch of points in week twelve,
Am I gonna be patient enough to hold him and
not want to trade him away before that even happens.
Speaker 1 (28:04):
I don't.
Speaker 2 (28:05):
I don't think so, So I'm probably gonna not touch
him until round three.
Speaker 1 (28:07):
Now. Yeah, there's a couple of ways to look at that,
and I don't think I don't think you're wrong. I
think it's a it's the rational and very strong counter
to what I'm saying. Right One side of the coin
is negative game scripts and lots of passing. The other
side of the coin is defense is not so binary.
As you know, facing a good defense means behind points.
(28:29):
Sometimes facing a good defense, what does it really mean?
It means lots of disguise pressures, It means safety is
coming out of the backfield, and it means lots of
deceptive schematics that are very difficult for rookies to pick
up on. Right. These are all these are the reasons
why rookies fail. I've I've been joking about taking all
these backup veterans because they know where to stand. They
(28:51):
you know, and people laugh about that, but it's legit
the truth. You it's something that you were kind of
hinting towards with Aaron Rodgers. The second you miss it
alignment or you miss a rotational call, you know, left split.
If he wants you over on the right hand side
to pick up a pressure coming that way and you
don't get it, your time is short here, Parter. So
(29:16):
I'm not pushing these guys up, and I just kind
of cold on the Cardinals. Maybe they'll bad strength to schedule.
The high strength of schedule in the pants and gets
you back on Michael Wilson. You could tell I've been
trying to target and identify late wideouts that could pop
because I've been more focused on getting my running backs early.
So if you could have been drafting and I'm trying
(29:37):
to get the muscle memory going, giving up good advice
for everyone, but stuff that works, you can't say, well,
take all the early whiteouts and all the early running backs.
You can't have both those things. Yeah, it'd be a
wonderful world if we could, but we can't do that.
So I've been looking for guys like that. How about
the flip side now, So off the schedules, I've got Cleveland.
They're gonna need this need to work out pretty good
(29:58):
for these duds like Cleveland Orleans, which I like because
I was kind of high on them. So when I
see that maybe the soft one, maybe I am acting
on it. Where a guy like Shuck, I think second
year I'm expecting some growth wouldn't hurt to be facing
Bay defenses. And the third was Cincinnati. Who I mean,
if you were wheels up on Cincinnati anyway, you should
have been. One note I had on Cincinnati that I
(30:20):
found kept popping up was the wide receiver three situation. Right,
everyone is very high on chasing Higgins, as they should be,
but like we've seen Yoshivas kind of do some work.
He goes mostly undrafted, and if they're gonna be a
thirty eight point a week team, again, I think everybody
could eat. So what do you think about those teams Cleveland,
(30:40):
New Orleans, Cincy or anything else you have to add
about the weakest schedules.
Speaker 3 (30:44):
The Bengals is really interesting, and I think you're right.
I think also the other thing that we see sometimes
with these offenses, when they really get the chance to
dominate their opposition, which could very well happen with Cincinnati
especially proven that their defense should theoretically be better after
the investments that they made. Then you do start to
see towards the end of games some of these other
(31:05):
wide receivers just get more involved. Jamar Chase doesn't have
to go out there in the fourth quarter when they're
up by twenty points and do what he does. He
might want to just save himself, or the coaches rather
would probably want to save him a little bit. So
we even in situations like that, you could get some
garbage time from Yoshivas. I'm also looking now at Chase Brown,
which is somebody who's maybe just been kind of a
(31:27):
name in the cloud. He's just been kind of this
sure whatever. He seems fine, at least from my perspective.
But now I'm going, well, if they have this easy
of a schedule, I should probably be.
Speaker 2 (31:40):
Giving him better shrift.
Speaker 3 (31:41):
I should be bumping him up just a little bit
more because they didn't add any real competition for him.
So Chase Brown is somebody who stands out to me
from the Bengals. I also do think, yeah, the Saints
should be fine. I was already heavily invested in Dialer Shuck,
so this was more of a s I have relief
when I saw this, And with the Browns again, I
(32:03):
look at the running back and I say, Okay, Quinn
Shawn Judkins. I've never been a huge believer, just because
I think his pass catching abilities are capped, his touchdown
scoring opportunities are a little capped. But the strength the
schedule does help that. So he is somebody that I'm
more comfortable drafting in you know, round four, round five,
than I was a month ago.
Speaker 1 (32:25):
Love every bit of that. That was a really great
tease for next week. As we wrap up this edition
of the f FW. Jacob, it's the injury stuff because
Judkins is another one of those guys. He dissocated his
right ankle and fractured his fibula, So next week when
you'll be like, maybe we'll do it next week, if
not really coming soon all the injury guys during the year,
and how to treat him. So from Big John and
(32:46):
Cheek and all the lovely people here at f FW,
thank you and we'll see you next week. Have a
great weekend, everybody. Take care
Speaker 2 (33:00):
You
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