July 10, 2026 • 35 mins
Jake and John are back after a festive fourth with a jam packed episode focused on the quarterback position! Where to draft certain guys, who to avoid, value plays - it's all in this week's episode! The boys break down the ceilings for Kyler Murray, Caleb Williams and others so don't miss this week's cram session on signal callers!
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Time now for Fantasy Football Weekly from iHeartRadio, your weekly
source for the nation's best fantasy speculation and advice.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
What's up and welcome back everybody, another offseason edition of
your favorite fantasy football pod in Mind, It's Fantasy Football
Weekly with your host and faithful narrator John mcgaza, my
friend and yours, mister Jake Troubridge. How you doing, Jake.
I've tacked on at least thirty hand drafts since we've
spoken last, and I'm really excited to get into this
(00:33):
quarterback conversation we're going to be doing today. How are you,
my friend?
Speaker 1 (00:36):
Glad you said drafts, John, I wasn't quite sure where
you're going with that statement.
Speaker 3 (00:40):
In the last second you pull it through. So I'm
doing great though, John.
Speaker 1 (00:43):
I myself am very interested now because I found the
Packers released their training camp schedule, and I love to
get up to see one of these open practices because
it makes me feel tethered to real, actual football and
I can't wait to experience that in person.
Speaker 2 (01:01):
Yeah, 'tis the reason for the season. Funny, you're actually
mentioning things that happen which should move ADP. Right now,
ADP's are moving without anything happening, and it's just you know,
the market kind of pingponging ideas back and forth, analysts
making points, and then people following. Some high stake drafts
are starting to go on, and people do tend to
(01:23):
follow that. You know, Ashton Genty has found his way
into the middle of the first. That's kind of a
thing right now. So if you are trying to get
him in the second, that's gone. Can walk our guys
up at the turn. So things are moving. Those running
backs are moving up. But today we're gonna be talking
about quarterbacks. We've got last year's QB ADP steals with
a sprinkle of late round mobile QB's. We're gonna try
(01:45):
and put together a plan mostly redraft. I will try
and get my best ball hat on at the end
because in those formats you really need a second and
third quarterback. Right now, in redraft feels like a chicken
in every pot, Jake, There's enough to go around. If
you're drafting in a one QB league, just really short.
Do you see the pointing taking one really early when
(02:08):
there are really viable guys going in the QB two range.
Speaker 1 (02:11):
Well, John, when we talked last week about you know
our favorite team stacks. That was something that I noticed
as we were trying to figure out expensive and medium
priced and cheap stacks. A lot of it just hinges
on what do you really want to spend on a
quarterback and does it make sense to go early with
these guys. And we talked about Josh Allen, we talked
about Lamar Jackson. There are cases for those guys, for sure,
(02:35):
but I think these late round quarterbacks, even if you
do want a stack, present some really nice opportunities.
Speaker 3 (02:41):
So I'm excited to dig in a little bit.
Speaker 2 (02:43):
Yeah, it's funny this year the quarterback market feels cheaper
than last year. Yet you put together a list of
players that you could have drafted as a QB two
that finished as a QB one. So this is certainly
stuff that has happened. And man, I'm it's getting harder
and harder for me to make the Josh Allen argument,
(03:04):
even the Lamar Jackson argument though, as quarterbacks are consolidating
and this is really a first for me and at
least in recent history, Guys like Kamar he's moving back
to the fifth now, he's moved back to the pack
closer up to our first quarterback. We're gonna mention Caleb Williams.
Last year you can get him as the QB fifteen.
He finished as the QB seven. This is points per game.
(03:26):
This year he's the QB six at ADP eighty one.
But again, one of my first notes that I put
for Caleb was he's very much stack dependent. He has
so many pass catchers going in front of him that
he almost seems to go with whatever Bear drafter wants
him the most. Right the Luther Burdon drafter often wants him.
The Colson Lovelin drafter also wants him. So Caleb is
(03:50):
gone kind of early in the pack, but I'm not
sure it's because of his standalone value. What do you
think about Caleb william I don't.
Speaker 1 (03:56):
Know if it's just everybody's excitement over these newer pass
catchers that you referenced, especially Luther Burden and Colston Loveland,
or if it's just they witnessed him in the fourth
quarter decimate teams at the last second so much last
year that that is ingrained in everybody's heads. I am
very much out on Kleb Williams myself this year, John,
(04:19):
I'm okay with taking Colston Loveland. I'm less okay with
taking Luther Burden, but I just don't want anything to
do with Caleb Williams. The staff that sticks in my
craw from last year. Again, we look at all the
highlight reel stuff, and that's great, but if you just
look at quarterbacks who threw the ball at least two
hundred times, williams completion percentage was only above Shador Sanders.
(04:40):
That's it. That's a bad, bad stat That's a big
yikes for me. You're not gonna have probably as turnover
heavy of a defense for Kleb Williams to fall back
on and give him all these opportunities to get you
those last second fantasy points. So at that price range,
I just don't. I don't want to invest. Are you
investing John.
Speaker 2 (05:02):
When I've had the bear stack, especially if I have
Burden and Loveland, because that's something you can do. If
you're a back end draft of this year, then yes,
But otherwise no, only because Caleb is going before. He's
going before Jalen Hurts all the time, He's going before
our next quarterback, Drake May. A lot of the time.
I can't get there last point on Caleb, I'm glad
(05:22):
you mentioned the fourth quarter thing. I don't want to
read off too many numbers, but I did break down
his performance by quarter because we've all heard the narrative
and I was curious if it was true. So I'm
going to do completion percentage, EPA, passer rating and touchdowns
by quarter. First quarter sixty one point oh four ninety
one and six, which is solid. It gets significantly worse
(05:43):
than the second quarter seventy four passer rating, more of
a neutral EPA, only five tds, but it was really
the second half, like you mentioned, plus eleven EPA sixty
three percent. But again that fourth quarter completion percentage, I'm
glad you mentioned it was down at fifty six percent,
So even when he was kind of ball out, plus
point twenty five EPA partent is fantastic. That's something with
(06:05):
the very best, but that's also driven by tds. He
had nine touchdowns and at least a ninety four passer
rating each of the second half quarters, so yeah, he
was better. The tds kind of floated the whole thing up,
and I'm just not looking to pay a premium with
all the consolidation again going on next quarterback, Drake may
last year QB sixteen, it was all over that he
finishes the QB five. Now he's going again as the
(06:26):
QB five. I've got ADP fifty four on Fantasy Life,
which we've been using. That's using consensus right now. I
think he's going a little bit later. Again, it's very
much room dependent and going to depend on that Aj
Brown drafter and now Brown has moved up into the
middle of the second. What do you think about Drake May?
I mean, whenever he's going after Kleb, that's like a smash.
(06:48):
I will have one oe. Drake May is my highest
roster quarterback right now because I think he's a top
three contender and he's going fifth, six, seventh, You get running,
you get the pass. I'm seeing we're just seeing the
beginning of the ascension. I feel, man, I think he
could be getting drafted right beyond Josh Allen next year.
What say you on Drake May?
Speaker 1 (07:10):
Yeah, John, I hate to give myself a pat on
the back, mostly because it's harder to reach there as
I get older.
Speaker 3 (07:16):
But last offseason I.
Speaker 1 (07:18):
Was all over Drake May because it was a limited
sample size in his rookie season, but he had so
many of these big flashes that we love to see
for fantasy football in terms of both the passing proficiency
with just absolutely nobody to throw to, by the way,
and all of his rushing upside, and then that bears
out last year in a really big way. The thing
(07:39):
that gets some pushback these days is, well, it was
a soft schedule last year. It's gonna be a much
harder schedule for him this year. And I get that.
But the tools did not change. The personnel got upgraded
with this infusion of AJ Brown. So I'm not going
to galaxy to bring myself out of Drake May, just
because the schedule it's the cost thing still for me,
(08:02):
where it's like, well, I might as well just reach
a couple of rounds earlier and grab Josh Allen, you know,
and do and do the thing that I feel the
most confident in. That's where I'm at with Drake May.
But no no grudges against you if you're wanting to
go that route.
Speaker 2 (08:16):
Funny you did say, Alan, so are you going up
where he's going into late second, early third a postal.
If you would have said Lamar, I would have just
nodded along, because Lamar back for early five is like
a smash. I know we didn't really put Allen on
the forum, but just Cury, So are you taking Allen
where he's going.
Speaker 1 (08:33):
It's just a thing of if I want the best,
let me just go get the best. Let me not
mess with the rest. You know, I'll go early early
with Josh Allen, or I'm probably just gonna wait for
a lot of these much later round ADP guys rather
than messing with the guys in the middle who I
might like but has a lot more volatility in my opinion.
Speaker 2 (08:54):
Yeah, hard to argue with the consistency and ceiling case
for Josh Allen, especially we think they're going to pass
more because they brought in a receiver themselves. Yeah, it's
hard to argue against. So for me, it's really a
one v one thing, and maybe that is also me
wearing too much of the best ball brain. In redraft leagues,
you get to replace all those stuff, So take all
your shots at whiteouts are running back there. You could
(09:15):
turn knowing that you pretty much have a leg up
on every team. The thing with May of course me
man he was number four and EPA against the Blitz,
and he was number one in deep shot EPA like
you mentioned, without like a real legitimate elite receiver, and
now he's got one elite receiver. And I think Dobbs
is really good for the spot he's going to be
in working underneath. So m wheels up for May, especially
(09:37):
where he's going. If he's an ADP fifty four, where
I have left on NFL, I'm probably not getting there.
I've been getting in more in the sixties when the
entire wave begins to go all right. Next up, this
is like one of the most polarizing players and easily
what I think is the most polarizing situation. So we
head down to Jacksonville. Let's talk about Trevor Lawrence. Last year,
(09:58):
QB twenty finishes the QB three. This year he's the
QB ten at ADP ninety one. So the market just
kind of settling in the middle, right, not buying that
top side, but feeling that he's now at the very
least the back end QB one guy. He had seven
top ten finishes, four top five finishes. I think he
has one of the most talented wide receiver rooms in
(10:21):
the league. We're gonna have to make that a separate
table discussion. Now I have to bring up the R word.
It's regression six hundred and forty dropbacks. Hard to project
that again and nine rushing scores, hard to project that again.
That's the bow case, I mean the bear case. The
bow case is Liam Cohen whole nother year of continuity
(10:44):
in the offense. We saw progression, critical snaps, lots of
production with the arm with defeat, and they've added talent
mid stream, right, the Meyers thing was midstream, so a
lot of that concoction was just still being stirred. Now
and that fruit's been on the vine, it might be
ripe and juicy. What do you think about Trevor Lawrence
(11:04):
and can you address if you think he might have
standalone value also and even if maybe you have a
favorite pairing.
Speaker 1 (11:11):
Yeah, with the Trevor Lawrence ADP party, me wishes that
people were leaning into his fantas to finish last year
and he would get ballooned up draft boards just so
I wouldn't even have to think about him, because he
is such a frustrating case. But if you look at
what they both gained and lost, really what they lost
was Travis a Chan that's huge. We have Bachell Tuton
(11:32):
back there, we have Chris Rodriguez, but that's an unproven backfield.
So we go back to the nine rushing touchdowns that
Trevor Lawrence had. Is it impossible that he could do
that again this year, especially if there's some issues with
Chris Rodriguez. We've heard some health stuff. None of that's solidified,
of course, but he might be able to do that.
He has this same crew coming back from last year
(11:54):
that you mentioned. They've been working with Brian Thomas Junior
to try to get him back. You know that action reformed.
Everybody's gonna say that this time of year, but it
seems legitimate that it could happen. We love Travis Hunter
when he's on offense. We love Parker Washington. So I
think the standalone case for Trevor Lawrence does make a
lot of sense, if only because it's probably gonna be
(12:16):
a little bit frustrating to decide who to.
Speaker 3 (12:18):
Pair him with.
Speaker 1 (12:19):
But he has a lot of really good options to throw.
To me, I would probably go with Parker Washington out
of that group, or maybe even just if I'm punting
tight end, I might pair him up with Breton Strange,
who I think it's overlooked a lot of the times
because of the proficiency of some of these other receivers.
Speaker 2 (12:36):
I like strange too. I feel like there's gonna be
a lot of zeros baked into that because again, there's
so many mousifee they're so ridiculously talented. The draft capital
on Hunter and we're not even sure if he needs
to play. It's like will you It may not need
him to play, you know. Jacoby Myers has always earned targets.
So it's gonna be really crowded. And what are we
(12:57):
gonna get from Brian Thomas, like a really good discussion
for another day. I don't think I'm gonna end up
with much Lawrence again, unless I'm kind of building a
Jaguar stack. That's not really how I attack Redraft. You know,
this isn't your We're gonna get through Matthew Stafford and
Calvin Johnson. That used to be a Redraft stack that
you could sink your teeth into. When the trunk of
the tree right, we often talk about target trees, I've
(13:19):
equated into actual trees. Right the redwoods of big thick
trunk opposed to the jaguars might be more of a
Bonzie tree right now, the next tree just has two
major trunks. That would be the Rams. Matthew Stafford QB
twenty three last year finishes as QB four, So quick
pump of the brakes right off the bat. We've had
three quarterbacks finish in the top five getting drafted as
(13:40):
almost QB threes. This is crazy town. So keep your
mind open everyone as far as range of outcomes and
where to draft these guys. My first note for Stafford says,
stupid spaceship. If you remember what happened, Jake. I had
a RAMS to the Moon article written and almost public
(14:00):
that I had pulled because we found that that Matthew
Stafford had to have a chamber from out of space
that he was gonna be sleeping in outside of RAMS
training camp, and the neck was an issue. His wife
was on her podcast saying he might retire, but he
doesn't want to. We don't know. We'll play it by ear.
There were a lot of kind of red flags, so
I backed off the RAMS truck and they were awesome.
(14:24):
He was the passing yard leader. He had twelve more
touchdowns than the QB two. That's a thirty five percent
lead on the field, which is kind of crazy. However,
we were talking about regression seven point seven percent touchdown
per attempt. That was a career high by a mile,
though he has supported a five and a half percent
career rate, so he is very effective. And DeVante Adams
(14:44):
serves as a really unique piece around the goal line
to score. And then Nikua has gotten some of those
weird kind of handoff shimmy shake passes, so if anyone
could repeat it, it would be this team. What do you
think about Stafford with the zero running where he's going
QB fourteen eightyp one oh two. I mean, geez, you
could just not draft the quarterback and take Matthew Stafford
(15:06):
in the last round of your redraft formats. Hard to
argue with that, right And if he stink, should kind
of drop him. I don't think he could stink. He
just might get hurt. What do you think about Stafford?
Speaker 1 (15:15):
Yeah, John, we need at least one off season story
every year, like the dumb cryo chamber thing, just to
keep us all honest and keep us on our toes.
I think stupid demolition man, cryo chamber, whatever was going
on there.
Speaker 2 (15:30):
I will say, watch a language or you get a
ticket for that. The little robot is gonna call you
that's a.
Speaker 1 (15:34):
Great yeah, oh man, don't make me break out the
three Sea shows. I do think well, I do think
with Matt Stafford, though, if there's one guy on this
list that felt a little bit fluky, I actually think
it's Matt Stafford. You mentioned some really good career metrics
for him, But if we're just isolating last year compared
(15:55):
to more recent years with Stafford, it was such a
crazy outlier, and I want to believe that DeVante Adams
can help get him there again. But you know, the
year before last he was QB twenty six in points
per game. The year before that he was QB seventeen
in points per game. He threw twenty plus more touchdowns
(16:16):
last year than in those years. That is your difference
with Matt Stafford, because he doesn't run. Like you said,
you're more likely to get negative rushing yards on a
season than you are for him to cross sixty in
a year. So I think DeVante Adams is going to
be doing a lot of the heavy lifting for raising
Matt Stafford up. And we've talked on the show before
(16:37):
about how I don't know that DeVante adams numbers are
sustainable from last year. So it feels like if I'm
banking on regression for Davante, I kind of have to
bank on some of that for Matthew Stafford as well.
So for me last year it was great if you
could get him. I just don't think I'm going to
be waiting around on Matt Stafford this year.
Speaker 2 (16:56):
Yep, one hundred percent agreed. Again, that's your best ballpick
where he's a fantastic QB two where you'll get on
the spike weeks, but you don't have to worry about
all the other ones. And then, of course the age
is still a thing I wrote down. You know, playing
in the NFL doesn't make you more healthy. It just
doesn't work that way, all right. So that's pretty much
the halfway point. I want to shuffle some papers and
we'll get to the guys that are going a little
(17:16):
bit later on, and then a couple of running quarterbacks.
Give me just a second, Jake, all right, we're back
with a couple guys I was really interested in because
they again they're very polarizing and there is top side.
Firstus Daniel Jones, he was QB thirty one finishes to fifteen,
but that was with the injuries, right, So I did
some kind of time sorting Daniel Jones. He got hurt
(17:39):
week fourteen, but it was early, so I did week
one through thirteen. At the point, he was the QB
seven eighteen and a half Fantasy points per game. He
was top five and EPA per attempt n YPA. We
like that, but it's gonna come down to the news.
We saw how important he was to that offense, though
I was surprised. You know, we had four top tens
and I think it was two top five. So the
(18:02):
ceiling games that will be there again. Jonathan Taylor ate
all the touchdown equity. So as I was looking into it,
I think I'm kind of off of Jones. I want
to know more about Jones's health to boost you know,
Warren and the pass catchers. That's what I'm really into.
He's participating in seven on seven drills and is expected
to be a full participant at the start of training camp,
(18:23):
which would be wheels up for week one. I'm not
really drafting Daniel Jones. We want a little bit of mobility.
I'm worried about the leg. I'm a little iffy on
the Colts right now. Altogether, we've even mentioned Pierce with
the ankle. I'm just not looking to pay a premium
for any of this right now.
Speaker 1 (18:38):
Yeah, John, it feels a little bit deja vu ish
on Daniel Jones of We were going through a lot
of hemming and hallan last offseason about is he actually
going to be out there for most of this season?
Speaker 3 (18:50):
It wasn't really because of health stuff.
Speaker 1 (18:51):
It was really because, well, did we believe in Anthony
Anthony Richardson still at that point? At what point were
they going to be flip flopping.
Speaker 3 (18:58):
If at all?
Speaker 1 (18:58):
And it feels like his ADP is just settled back
to that area because of the injury. If you can
tell me for sure he will be out there and
fully healthy, fully healthy in week one, Okay, fine. It's
not that he's immobile. He's shown in the past that
he has some scoot to him. Granted, yes, he might
trip and fall about ten yards out from the red zone.
(19:21):
It happens to the best of us. But I do
think that he presents some upside, but it is zapped
because of the Alec Pierce of it all. I think
if he was still out there, Okay, fine, Michael Pittman's gone,
it can't all be Tyler Warren. I mean for fantasy purposes.
If I'm drafting Tyler Warren, of course I want to
believe that. But for Daniel Jones and getting any standalone value,
(19:44):
I just don't love it. So I think I'm also
out on Daniel Jones. He does present one of the
last ditch guys where I'm like, ugh, if I just
get to a point and draft where I haven't even
considered looking at quarterback because they're just getting scooped up
before I want them. Okay, you know, I'll see what
happens in the first couple of weeks and then figured
it out from there.
Speaker 2 (20:04):
Yeah, part of the full season thing with that consolidation,
everyone tends to dogpile on guys perceived as starters, and
that's when Jones getting pushed in redraft. You could just
take him as a compliment to maybe if you take
one of these other late darts that we're going to
talk about, hoping that he starts week one and is
good and if not, you just move on. We didn't
(20:27):
mention it. You've spoke about superflex before. I feel like
this new era of football, I think more people should
be playing super flex. It feels like there's enough quarterbacks
to you know, make it challenging for a twelve team
league if everybody needed to where twenty four to thirty
are playable rather than twelve, because there just seem like
(20:48):
there's so many guys like right, Daniel Jones should be
part of a conversation, and I don't think he's going
to be in redraft leagues. The next player certainly will be,
or at least maybe I think it's Jackson Dart. Maybe
I'm into running upside than everybody else. Drafted QB thirty
two last year, finishes to fourteen again, missed some games.
His per game stuff could be hard, below the in
(21:09):
and out and miss stuff. He's being drafted as a
QB thirteen ADP eighty five. He's one of my favorite
QB twos In season long formats again because of all
the spike weeks. In limited play, he had seven top
ten finishes. He had four top five finishes, and again
it's all about rushing upside. Twenty fantasy points per game
in the games he started, he was fifth in scramble rate.
(21:30):
He was number one in design rush rate. He was
number one in takeoffs per game that scrambles plus design runs.
He was number one in rush yards four to fifty five,
number one in touchdowns at nine, and number one at
first downs in that timeframe. Above Josh Allen in all
of that stuff, maybe not as great if a passer
as we like, also hampered by a lack of talent.
(21:53):
We've seen him force feed neighbors, then force feed Wandale.
I think where you're getting him to be able to
get a guy that I could finish as a weekly
top five guy. I would be rolling with Jackson Dart
and Jacob. He's truly going outside of the QB one
conversation in redraft leats and you can get him in
a last round or a second to last round situation.
(22:15):
I'm doing that every day and twice on Sunday. Where
are you on Dart? I know he is a flowed
player that'll take us into the last part, but the
upside just too juicy for me to say no.
Speaker 1 (22:26):
Yeah, I'm I'm going to say no. Actually, when it
comes to Jackson Dart, I look at what he was
able to do last year, and this was a player
that had just made a lot of sense. We've talked
about Fernando Mendoza a bunch of this offseason and when's
he going to be out there? Starting with Dart, that
was really always the only question was how many weeks
until he gets out on the field, Because when he's
(22:47):
out there, I was confident that he would provide plenty
of upside for fantasy. It was just that waiting game.
But now I look at the same player and a
he is without Wandale Robinson to force that ball to
could be without or with a substantially hampered Malik Neighbors.
We know that, you know, camp Scataboo runs like the
(23:09):
Juggernaut from X Men with head first and could be
out at any point himself, and Jackson Dart has plenty
of injury concerns as well, So all of that into
a pie. You know, I have one guy on the
Giants that I really really like, which is Isaiah. Likely
everybody else I'm just kind of staying away from. The
vibes are also just terrible around this team. And there's
a quarterback going much later that we are going to
(23:31):
talk about John that I think presents the exact same upside,
but you're getting him so much later that there's almost
zero risk.
Speaker 2 (23:40):
YEP, that's you make the all the rational counters to
Jackson Dart can I think he's a great spike week
playing season long again, you don't have to get cute
and pick and choose. And in redraft when I mentioned I, yes,
I'd be satisfied with him. I would normally leave a
redraft table with just one QB, and I think think
(24:00):
if you draft Art, you need to leave with two qbs,
which hurts some of the ball case that I'm making. Right,
it's not a perfect player. If you need a second quarterback,
that's pretty much a fact. Let's get into some of
these floor I call them flowed runners. If you ever
bet a description by all means Now all these guys
are really going extremely late. The earliest is one twenty five.
(24:20):
So man to be able to wait on a starter
and wait this late, it really again speaks to the
super flex conversation. Maybe talk to your commissioner first of it.
Be Tyler Shuck. I love Tyler Shuck. I think I
don't know if anyone had more puff pieces about him
than I did. Last year. I was on it early
and often. Kellen Moore, I put Gidda up. They're tied
(24:41):
for first in play clock speed. They were the only
team that ran more than sixty three plays a game
that scored less than twenty points per game. I think
that will correct with the QB change. And I can't
share charts with everybody here. Maybe I'll put them up
on Twitter or follow me up my name if you'd
like really bullish channels. If you were to chart Tyler
(25:04):
Shuck's EPA per attempt and rush sharts per game, the
things I like most in fantasy. They're both like, you know,
they look like the Atmazon chart from the early two thousands,
so we've seen improvement and you get the fast track
and man, I think he's a bowler and they surrounded
him with weapons. I really like what I see from
the scenes. He's another great kind of compliment. Late, do
(25:24):
you like what I'm seeing from Tyler Shuck?
Speaker 3 (25:26):
At least love it.
Speaker 1 (25:28):
This was a guy that got so dog piled on
last year, mostly because of his age.
Speaker 3 (25:34):
You know, he was really old.
Speaker 1 (25:35):
And I don't get me wrong, I cracked some jokes
about how old this guy is because that's fun to do.
But at a certain point you have to acknowledge the
draft capital that was spent on him by the Saints
and the complete lack of proven talent on their roster
to that point, so it took a long time for
Shuck to finally see the light to day. I was
hoping it would have happened much earlier in the season.
(25:55):
But now we don't have to worry about any of that.
Now all that's cleared for, it's a completely clear runway.
With Jordan Tyson being added, with Travis han being added
to the backfield, you could make an argument that could
hurt some of his rushing upside. I don't know that
I necessarily see that, because hey, I don't think that
Travis a Chan is that good of a running back
to be able to add where you're just going to
(26:16):
be pulling some of the great stuff that your quarterback
can do away from him. So I'm very very much
okay taking Tyler shock and above anybody that we've talked
about thus far on this episode because of where his
cost is. I think I want him the most to
this point.
Speaker 2 (26:33):
Yeah, And if you're buying Saints kind of like I am,
and you like Chris Alave like I do, that's a
really great one two punch at cost. You could be
talking about the back end QB one at the late
QB two Price with the back end wide receiver one
Price who finishes as a mid one wide receiver. We've
seen a lovey just command. He just commands targets and
(26:55):
gonna keep being the drum with the fast track in
the bad defense is trust me, You'll thank me when
it's December and we're talking about Oh man, it's a
game in Cincinnati and it's forty two mile and hour
wins be negative five. Yeah, and our guys are, you know,
wearing T shirts and stuff. It makes a difference. Those
over unders kind of speak for themselves. So yeah, I'm
(27:16):
glad to see a little bit of the Saint love.
I think they're a really exciting team coming at a discount.
I have a feeling this next quarterback is the gentleman
you were talking about. It's k One Kyler Murray, the
newest Viking. I wrote no short jokes or joking. How
when he's scrambling it looks like when my son steals
(27:37):
my cell phone and tries to run away from me.
The question is, is Kevin I promise I won't do it,
so don't let me do it, Jake. My question is,
is Kevin O'Connell the Kingmaker. That was the narrative going
in last year. If your answer is yes, then JJ
McCarthy is just that bad. I went to bring up
(27:59):
the Viking Stats macro stats with koc at the switches,
and I'll be honest, I thought that were gonna be
a little bit better. Very much middle pack. No, not bad,
not bad, but very much middle pack. I thought, just
from the narrative, it was gonna be a spike success rate,
spiked EPA yours for play again, not bad or right
(28:21):
in the middle, nothing near the bottom, but nothing top five,
really nothing that kind of screened. This is gonna make
a difference. I'm not really drafting Kyler Murray, but let
me tell you there's one player that has me really
nervous because tons of sharp people are into it, and
it's k one talk to us about Kyler Murray and
how and why my fantasy season might be in peril
right now.
Speaker 1 (28:42):
Well, I will say, John, this actually was not the
guy I was thinking of when we were talking about
Jackson Dart.
Speaker 3 (28:46):
He's coming up next.
Speaker 1 (28:47):
I believe that we're gonna talk about save him for
the bitter end. Kyler Murray is a very interesting question
because right now we're still going on with the assumption
that he's won the job, which we haven't really heard
vocalized by the team just yet, but ADP certainly suggests
that's the case, that JJ McCarthy's not getting this thing.
But if we do get definitive confirmation in the next
(29:08):
few weeks, yep, it's definitely Kyler Maurice shop. I think
his ADP climbs a little bit higher than where it
is right now because people are still looking at the
rushing upside that he has. You know, his last full season,
he had five hundred and seventy two rushing yards five
rushing touchdowns. That wasn't anywhere close to his career high.
You know, he was hitting eight hundred yards eleven touchdowns
back in twenty twenty. I don't know that he still
(29:29):
has quite that same level of hypermobility or not. But
the fact that Minnesota waited to draft a running back
until the sixth round this year, despite having old man
Aaron Jones who's really gotten worn down and Jordan Mason,
who's just kind of looked underwhelming in a Vikings uniform.
Part of me wonders if they are hiding their hand
a little bit but suggesting our backfield is going to
(29:51):
be fine, our run game is going to be fine
because this quarterback that we have can make up for
a lot of those deficiencies. So I think that Kyler
should be draft over bow Knicks Personally, he's coming off
that brutal ankle injury. Bo Nicks realized a lot of
mobility that he might not have this year. And you
can make an argument that you should also be taking
home over Matt Stafford because he is so TD dependent
(30:14):
and has no rushing upside. So that's where I'm comfortable
drafting Kyler Murray like at his price right now, I'll
take him. If he gets up a few more spots
in QB ranks and a few more rounds in ADP,
it'll be a consideration, but I might do it.
Speaker 2 (30:30):
I'm interested, man, I can be stubborn. That was very compelling.
I think I'm coming around to it. But I'm glad
right we're not full steam ahead, but I think I
need to be maybe a little bit more aggressive on him.
I was just looking to see if he's elevated in right.
There was a time when Hopkins he was elevating. Hopkins
was a ten catch a guy you know ten catch
(30:50):
a game guy for a while. One of those early
eighty few moves I was talking about is justin Jefferson
Is you know jumping CD Lamb right now. He's trump
McCaffrey and even John Taylor in some drafts. And if
you believe that K one has to at least pass,
that was really cool. Sorry, who was the last one?
(31:10):
Let's up every the league? You take the last guy away?
Who could it possibly be? Jake?
Speaker 1 (31:14):
I just can't leave this episode without at least talking
a little bit about Malik Willis. There is obviously a
ton of risk with Malik Willis, who has only started
six games in his entire career. He's playing for a
first year, defensive minded head coach. His offensive coordinator, Bobby Sloweck,
has a solid but not exactly inspiring track record with Houston,
(31:37):
and outside of Devin hn there's just this lack of
proven weapons on the offense that we've talked about a bunch,
and yet John the upside is just so tempting that
I can't look away. So teeniest of sample size alert here,
but let's just look at the three starts in Green
Bay real quick. He had six total touchdowns split evenly
(31:57):
between pass and run. He was averaging eighteen passing attempts
and just over two hundred passing yards per game with
an outrageous eighty percent completion percentage. His yards per attempt
in those games also matched Drake Mays from last year,
who was leading the pack in yards per attempt, so
(32:18):
high high volume, not high volume, excuse me, high velocity
throws and really accurate throws. He was also averaging seven
rush attempts per game fifty eight rush yards per game.
These are very quality numbers. You would be psyched to
have these numbers on your fantasy team every week. The question, though,
is how sustainable are they for an entire season In
(32:40):
one K formats, especially John it is a big swing.
But I'm looking for difference makers in one QB. I
don't want to just have somebody who will give me
replacement level fantasy numbers. I want the guy who can
win me weeks, get me top ten weeks at least.
I think he can still do that even with this
motley crew that he has. The island of misfit toys
(33:02):
that he's throwing to the upside is just it's justin
Field's esk. It's prime Kyler Murray esque. So if I'm
gonna wait, this is where I wait until the bitter end.
Speaker 2 (33:13):
I think, John, I mean, you are correct. The sample
is small, but you didn't mention any of the passing
stats and all the biggest sample I could find is
his career stats. I know it's not a huge sample,
but there's a you know, like a ton to like here.
The EPA is excellent, it's over point two. The completion
(33:34):
rates that's sixty eight percent. We love that the off
target raiders in the single digits. We love that the
passer rating is bordering on one hundred. We love that,
I mean he gets the ball to the sticks more
than forty percent of the time. There's a lot to
like here. Then you mentioned, of course, all the rushing
upside I mentioned. If I grab a guy like Dart,
knowing that it's risky and knowing that I need a supplement,
(33:56):
give me Dart and Malik Willis in the last two rounds.
If I could really get away with that, to me,
that feels like highway robbery. One of the best shots
at not just QB one upside, overall QB one upside.
That's really what we're dealing with I had to my
notes were kind of kind of weak on this one
because again the sample samall I wrote upside case. See
(34:18):
week three of twenty twenty five at Tennessee. He passed
for two oho two one without a pick, seven carries
seventy three and one. Awesome. Then week seventeen against Baltimore, who,
by the way, is a legitimately good defense. They were
at full strength at the time. He went to eighty
eight one to zero. Again, lots of passing, no turnovers,
nine sixty and two, and my fantasy antenna is popping
(34:41):
out of my forehead right now. So yeah, I love
the Willis call. I think you're all over that. He's
also one of my highest roster guys. I think he's
the best compliment on the board man, Jake. That was
one thousand miles an hour. We're putting a ton of
great influence for everybody. So from John and Jake, everyone,
thanks for listening. Hit us up on Social of femnity,
quie gents, and enjoy the weekend. Thanks for listening everyone.
(35:09):
I don't know
Time now for Fantasy Football Weekly from iHeartRadio, your weekly
source for the nation's best fantasy speculation and advice.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
What's up and welcome back everybody, another offseason edition of
your favorite fantasy football pod in Mind, It's Fantasy Football
Weekly with your host and faithful narrator John mcgaza, my
friend and yours, mister Jake Troubridge. How you doing, Jake.
I've tacked on at least thirty hand drafts since we've
spoken last, and I'm really excited to get into this
(00:33):
quarterback conversation we're going to be doing today. How are you,
my friend?
Speaker 1 (00:36):
Glad you said drafts, John, I wasn't quite sure where
you're going with that statement.
Speaker 3 (00:40):
In the last second you pull it through. So I'm
doing great though, John.
Speaker 1 (00:43):
I myself am very interested now because I found the
Packers released their training camp schedule, and I love to
get up to see one of these open practices because
it makes me feel tethered to real, actual football and
I can't wait to experience that in person.
Speaker 2 (01:01):
Yeah, 'tis the reason for the season. Funny, you're actually
mentioning things that happen which should move ADP. Right now,
ADP's are moving without anything happening, and it's just you know,
the market kind of pingponging ideas back and forth, analysts
making points, and then people following. Some high stake drafts
are starting to go on, and people do tend to
(01:23):
follow that. You know, Ashton Genty has found his way
into the middle of the first. That's kind of a
thing right now. So if you are trying to get
him in the second, that's gone. Can walk our guys
up at the turn. So things are moving. Those running
backs are moving up. But today we're gonna be talking
about quarterbacks. We've got last year's QB ADP steals with
a sprinkle of late round mobile QB's. We're gonna try
(01:45):
and put together a plan mostly redraft. I will try
and get my best ball hat on at the end
because in those formats you really need a second and
third quarterback. Right now, in redraft feels like a chicken
in every pot, Jake, There's enough to go around. If
you're drafting in a one QB league, just really short.
Do you see the pointing taking one really early when
(02:08):
there are really viable guys going in the QB two range.
Speaker 1 (02:11):
Well, John, when we talked last week about you know
our favorite team stacks. That was something that I noticed
as we were trying to figure out expensive and medium
priced and cheap stacks. A lot of it just hinges
on what do you really want to spend on a
quarterback and does it make sense to go early with
these guys. And we talked about Josh Allen, we talked
about Lamar Jackson. There are cases for those guys, for sure,
(02:35):
but I think these late round quarterbacks, even if you
do want a stack, present some really nice opportunities.
Speaker 3 (02:41):
So I'm excited to dig in a little bit.
Speaker 2 (02:43):
Yeah, it's funny this year the quarterback market feels cheaper
than last year. Yet you put together a list of
players that you could have drafted as a QB two
that finished as a QB one. So this is certainly
stuff that has happened. And man, I'm it's getting harder
and harder for me to make the Josh Allen argument,
(03:04):
even the Lamar Jackson argument though, as quarterbacks are consolidating
and this is really a first for me and at
least in recent history, Guys like Kamar he's moving back
to the fifth now, he's moved back to the pack
closer up to our first quarterback. We're gonna mention Caleb Williams.
Last year you can get him as the QB fifteen.
He finished as the QB seven. This is points per game.
(03:26):
This year he's the QB six at ADP eighty one.
But again, one of my first notes that I put
for Caleb was he's very much stack dependent. He has
so many pass catchers going in front of him that
he almost seems to go with whatever Bear drafter wants
him the most. Right the Luther Burdon drafter often wants him.
The Colson Lovelin drafter also wants him. So Caleb is
(03:50):
gone kind of early in the pack, but I'm not
sure it's because of his standalone value. What do you
think about Caleb william I don't.
Speaker 1 (03:56):
Know if it's just everybody's excitement over these newer pass
catchers that you referenced, especially Luther Burden and Colston Loveland,
or if it's just they witnessed him in the fourth
quarter decimate teams at the last second so much last
year that that is ingrained in everybody's heads. I am
very much out on Kleb Williams myself this year, John,
(04:19):
I'm okay with taking Colston Loveland. I'm less okay with
taking Luther Burden, but I just don't want anything to
do with Caleb Williams. The staff that sticks in my
craw from last year. Again, we look at all the
highlight reel stuff, and that's great, but if you just
look at quarterbacks who threw the ball at least two
hundred times, williams completion percentage was only above Shador Sanders.
(04:40):
That's it. That's a bad, bad stat That's a big
yikes for me. You're not gonna have probably as turnover
heavy of a defense for Kleb Williams to fall back
on and give him all these opportunities to get you
those last second fantasy points. So at that price range,
I just don't. I don't want to invest. Are you
investing John.
Speaker 2 (05:02):
When I've had the bear stack, especially if I have
Burden and Loveland, because that's something you can do. If
you're a back end draft of this year, then yes,
But otherwise no, only because Caleb is going before. He's
going before Jalen Hurts all the time, He's going before
our next quarterback, Drake May. A lot of the time.
I can't get there last point on Caleb, I'm glad
(05:22):
you mentioned the fourth quarter thing. I don't want to
read off too many numbers, but I did break down
his performance by quarter because we've all heard the narrative
and I was curious if it was true. So I'm
going to do completion percentage, EPA, passer rating and touchdowns
by quarter. First quarter sixty one point oh four ninety
one and six, which is solid. It gets significantly worse
(05:43):
than the second quarter seventy four passer rating, more of
a neutral EPA, only five tds, but it was really
the second half, like you mentioned, plus eleven EPA sixty
three percent. But again that fourth quarter completion percentage, I'm
glad you mentioned it was down at fifty six percent,
So even when he was kind of ball out, plus
point twenty five EPA partent is fantastic. That's something with
(06:05):
the very best, but that's also driven by tds. He
had nine touchdowns and at least a ninety four passer
rating each of the second half quarters, so yeah, he
was better. The tds kind of floated the whole thing up,
and I'm just not looking to pay a premium with
all the consolidation again going on next quarterback, Drake may
last year QB sixteen, it was all over that he
finishes the QB five. Now he's going again as the
(06:26):
QB five. I've got ADP fifty four on Fantasy Life,
which we've been using. That's using consensus right now. I
think he's going a little bit later. Again, it's very
much room dependent and going to depend on that Aj
Brown drafter and now Brown has moved up into the
middle of the second. What do you think about Drake May?
I mean, whenever he's going after Kleb, that's like a smash.
(06:48):
I will have one oe. Drake May is my highest
roster quarterback right now because I think he's a top
three contender and he's going fifth, six, seventh, You get running,
you get the pass. I'm seeing we're just seeing the
beginning of the ascension. I feel, man, I think he
could be getting drafted right beyond Josh Allen next year.
What say you on Drake May?
Speaker 1 (07:10):
Yeah, John, I hate to give myself a pat on
the back, mostly because it's harder to reach there as
I get older.
Speaker 3 (07:16):
But last offseason I.
Speaker 1 (07:18):
Was all over Drake May because it was a limited
sample size in his rookie season, but he had so
many of these big flashes that we love to see
for fantasy football in terms of both the passing proficiency
with just absolutely nobody to throw to, by the way,
and all of his rushing upside, and then that bears
out last year in a really big way. The thing
(07:39):
that gets some pushback these days is, well, it was
a soft schedule last year. It's gonna be a much
harder schedule for him this year. And I get that.
But the tools did not change. The personnel got upgraded
with this infusion of AJ Brown. So I'm not going
to galaxy to bring myself out of Drake May, just
because the schedule it's the cost thing still for me,
(08:02):
where it's like, well, I might as well just reach
a couple of rounds earlier and grab Josh Allen, you know,
and do and do the thing that I feel the
most confident in. That's where I'm at with Drake May.
But no no grudges against you if you're wanting to
go that route.
Speaker 2 (08:16):
Funny you did say, Alan, so are you going up
where he's going into late second, early third a postal.
If you would have said Lamar, I would have just
nodded along, because Lamar back for early five is like
a smash. I know we didn't really put Allen on
the forum, but just Cury, So are you taking Allen
where he's going.
Speaker 1 (08:33):
It's just a thing of if I want the best,
let me just go get the best. Let me not
mess with the rest. You know, I'll go early early
with Josh Allen, or I'm probably just gonna wait for
a lot of these much later round ADP guys rather
than messing with the guys in the middle who I
might like but has a lot more volatility in my opinion.
Speaker 2 (08:54):
Yeah, hard to argue with the consistency and ceiling case
for Josh Allen, especially we think they're going to pass
more because they brought in a receiver themselves. Yeah, it's
hard to argue against. So for me, it's really a
one v one thing, and maybe that is also me
wearing too much of the best ball brain. In redraft leagues,
you get to replace all those stuff, So take all
your shots at whiteouts are running back there. You could
(09:15):
turn knowing that you pretty much have a leg up
on every team. The thing with May of course me
man he was number four and EPA against the Blitz,
and he was number one in deep shot EPA like
you mentioned, without like a real legitimate elite receiver, and
now he's got one elite receiver. And I think Dobbs
is really good for the spot he's going to be
in working underneath. So m wheels up for May, especially
(09:37):
where he's going. If he's an ADP fifty four, where
I have left on NFL, I'm probably not getting there.
I've been getting in more in the sixties when the
entire wave begins to go all right. Next up, this
is like one of the most polarizing players and easily
what I think is the most polarizing situation. So we
head down to Jacksonville. Let's talk about Trevor Lawrence. Last year,
(09:58):
QB twenty finishes the QB three. This year he's the
QB ten at ADP ninety one. So the market just
kind of settling in the middle, right, not buying that
top side, but feeling that he's now at the very
least the back end QB one guy. He had seven
top ten finishes, four top five finishes. I think he
has one of the most talented wide receiver rooms in
(10:21):
the league. We're gonna have to make that a separate
table discussion. Now I have to bring up the R word.
It's regression six hundred and forty dropbacks. Hard to project
that again and nine rushing scores, hard to project that again.
That's the bow case, I mean the bear case. The
bow case is Liam Cohen whole nother year of continuity
(10:44):
in the offense. We saw progression, critical snaps, lots of
production with the arm with defeat, and they've added talent
mid stream, right, the Meyers thing was midstream, so a
lot of that concoction was just still being stirred. Now
and that fruit's been on the vine, it might be
ripe and juicy. What do you think about Trevor Lawrence
(11:04):
and can you address if you think he might have
standalone value also and even if maybe you have a
favorite pairing.
Speaker 1 (11:11):
Yeah, with the Trevor Lawrence ADP party, me wishes that
people were leaning into his fantas to finish last year
and he would get ballooned up draft boards just so
I wouldn't even have to think about him, because he
is such a frustrating case. But if you look at
what they both gained and lost, really what they lost
was Travis a Chan that's huge. We have Bachell Tuton
(11:32):
back there, we have Chris Rodriguez, but that's an unproven backfield.
So we go back to the nine rushing touchdowns that
Trevor Lawrence had. Is it impossible that he could do
that again this year, especially if there's some issues with
Chris Rodriguez. We've heard some health stuff. None of that's solidified,
of course, but he might be able to do that.
He has this same crew coming back from last year
(11:54):
that you mentioned. They've been working with Brian Thomas Junior
to try to get him back. You know that action reformed.
Everybody's gonna say that this time of year, but it
seems legitimate that it could happen. We love Travis Hunter
when he's on offense. We love Parker Washington. So I
think the standalone case for Trevor Lawrence does make a
lot of sense, if only because it's probably gonna be
(12:16):
a little bit frustrating to decide who to.
Speaker 3 (12:18):
Pair him with.
Speaker 1 (12:19):
But he has a lot of really good options to throw.
To me, I would probably go with Parker Washington out
of that group, or maybe even just if I'm punting
tight end, I might pair him up with Breton Strange,
who I think it's overlooked a lot of the times
because of the proficiency of some of these other receivers.
Speaker 2 (12:36):
I like strange too. I feel like there's gonna be
a lot of zeros baked into that because again, there's
so many mousifee they're so ridiculously talented. The draft capital
on Hunter and we're not even sure if he needs
to play. It's like will you It may not need
him to play, you know. Jacoby Myers has always earned targets.
So it's gonna be really crowded. And what are we
(12:57):
gonna get from Brian Thomas, like a really good discussion
for another day. I don't think I'm gonna end up
with much Lawrence again, unless I'm kind of building a
Jaguar stack. That's not really how I attack Redraft. You know,
this isn't your We're gonna get through Matthew Stafford and
Calvin Johnson. That used to be a Redraft stack that
you could sink your teeth into. When the trunk of
the tree right, we often talk about target trees, I've
(13:19):
equated into actual trees. Right the redwoods of big thick
trunk opposed to the jaguars might be more of a
Bonzie tree right now, the next tree just has two
major trunks. That would be the Rams. Matthew Stafford QB
twenty three last year finishes as QB four, So quick
pump of the brakes right off the bat. We've had
three quarterbacks finish in the top five getting drafted as
(13:40):
almost QB threes. This is crazy town. So keep your
mind open everyone as far as range of outcomes and
where to draft these guys. My first note for Stafford says,
stupid spaceship. If you remember what happened, Jake. I had
a RAMS to the Moon article written and almost public
(14:00):
that I had pulled because we found that that Matthew
Stafford had to have a chamber from out of space
that he was gonna be sleeping in outside of RAMS
training camp, and the neck was an issue. His wife
was on her podcast saying he might retire, but he
doesn't want to. We don't know. We'll play it by ear.
There were a lot of kind of red flags, so
I backed off the RAMS truck and they were awesome.
(14:24):
He was the passing yard leader. He had twelve more
touchdowns than the QB two. That's a thirty five percent
lead on the field, which is kind of crazy. However,
we were talking about regression seven point seven percent touchdown
per attempt. That was a career high by a mile,
though he has supported a five and a half percent
career rate, so he is very effective. And DeVante Adams
(14:44):
serves as a really unique piece around the goal line
to score. And then Nikua has gotten some of those
weird kind of handoff shimmy shake passes, so if anyone
could repeat it, it would be this team. What do you
think about Stafford with the zero running where he's going
QB fourteen eightyp one oh two. I mean, geez, you
could just not draft the quarterback and take Matthew Stafford
(15:06):
in the last round of your redraft formats. Hard to
argue with that, right And if he stink, should kind
of drop him. I don't think he could stink. He
just might get hurt. What do you think about Stafford?
Speaker 1 (15:15):
Yeah, John, we need at least one off season story
every year, like the dumb cryo chamber thing, just to
keep us all honest and keep us on our toes.
I think stupid demolition man, cryo chamber, whatever was going
on there.
Speaker 2 (15:30):
I will say, watch a language or you get a
ticket for that. The little robot is gonna call you
that's a.
Speaker 1 (15:34):
Great yeah, oh man, don't make me break out the
three Sea shows. I do think well, I do think
with Matt Stafford, though, if there's one guy on this
list that felt a little bit fluky, I actually think
it's Matt Stafford. You mentioned some really good career metrics
for him, But if we're just isolating last year compared
(15:55):
to more recent years with Stafford, it was such a
crazy outlier, and I want to believe that DeVante Adams
can help get him there again. But you know, the
year before last he was QB twenty six in points
per game. The year before that he was QB seventeen
in points per game. He threw twenty plus more touchdowns
(16:16):
last year than in those years. That is your difference
with Matt Stafford, because he doesn't run. Like you said,
you're more likely to get negative rushing yards on a
season than you are for him to cross sixty in
a year. So I think DeVante Adams is going to
be doing a lot of the heavy lifting for raising
Matt Stafford up. And we've talked on the show before
(16:37):
about how I don't know that DeVante adams numbers are
sustainable from last year. So it feels like if I'm
banking on regression for Davante, I kind of have to
bank on some of that for Matthew Stafford as well.
So for me last year it was great if you
could get him. I just don't think I'm going to
be waiting around on Matt Stafford this year.
Speaker 2 (16:56):
Yep, one hundred percent agreed. Again, that's your best ballpick
where he's a fantastic QB two where you'll get on
the spike weeks, but you don't have to worry about
all the other ones. And then, of course the age
is still a thing I wrote down. You know, playing
in the NFL doesn't make you more healthy. It just
doesn't work that way, all right. So that's pretty much
the halfway point. I want to shuffle some papers and
we'll get to the guys that are going a little
(17:16):
bit later on, and then a couple of running quarterbacks.
Give me just a second, Jake, all right, we're back
with a couple guys I was really interested in because
they again they're very polarizing and there is top side.
Firstus Daniel Jones, he was QB thirty one finishes to fifteen,
but that was with the injuries, right, So I did
some kind of time sorting Daniel Jones. He got hurt
(17:39):
week fourteen, but it was early, so I did week
one through thirteen. At the point, he was the QB
seven eighteen and a half Fantasy points per game. He
was top five and EPA per attempt n YPA. We
like that, but it's gonna come down to the news.
We saw how important he was to that offense, though
I was surprised. You know, we had four top tens
and I think it was two top five. So the
(18:02):
ceiling games that will be there again. Jonathan Taylor ate
all the touchdown equity. So as I was looking into it,
I think I'm kind of off of Jones. I want
to know more about Jones's health to boost you know,
Warren and the pass catchers. That's what I'm really into.
He's participating in seven on seven drills and is expected
to be a full participant at the start of training camp,
(18:23):
which would be wheels up for week one. I'm not
really drafting Daniel Jones. We want a little bit of mobility.
I'm worried about the leg. I'm a little iffy on
the Colts right now. Altogether, we've even mentioned Pierce with
the ankle. I'm just not looking to pay a premium
for any of this right now.
Speaker 1 (18:38):
Yeah, John, it feels a little bit deja vu ish
on Daniel Jones of We were going through a lot
of hemming and hallan last offseason about is he actually
going to be out there for most of this season?
Speaker 3 (18:50):
It wasn't really because of health stuff.
Speaker 1 (18:51):
It was really because, well, did we believe in Anthony
Anthony Richardson still at that point? At what point were
they going to be flip flopping.
Speaker 3 (18:58):
If at all?
Speaker 1 (18:58):
And it feels like his ADP is just settled back
to that area because of the injury. If you can
tell me for sure he will be out there and
fully healthy, fully healthy in week one, Okay, fine. It's
not that he's immobile. He's shown in the past that
he has some scoot to him. Granted, yes, he might
trip and fall about ten yards out from the red zone.
(19:21):
It happens to the best of us. But I do
think that he presents some upside, but it is zapped
because of the Alec Pierce of it all. I think
if he was still out there, Okay, fine, Michael Pittman's gone,
it can't all be Tyler Warren. I mean for fantasy purposes.
If I'm drafting Tyler Warren, of course I want to
believe that. But for Daniel Jones and getting any standalone value,
(19:44):
I just don't love it. So I think I'm also
out on Daniel Jones. He does present one of the
last ditch guys where I'm like, ugh, if I just
get to a point and draft where I haven't even
considered looking at quarterback because they're just getting scooped up
before I want them. Okay, you know, I'll see what
happens in the first couple of weeks and then figured
it out from there.
Speaker 2 (20:04):
Yeah, part of the full season thing with that consolidation,
everyone tends to dogpile on guys perceived as starters, and
that's when Jones getting pushed in redraft. You could just
take him as a compliment to maybe if you take
one of these other late darts that we're going to
talk about, hoping that he starts week one and is
good and if not, you just move on. We didn't
(20:27):
mention it. You've spoke about superflex before. I feel like
this new era of football, I think more people should
be playing super flex. It feels like there's enough quarterbacks
to you know, make it challenging for a twelve team
league if everybody needed to where twenty four to thirty
are playable rather than twelve, because there just seem like
(20:48):
there's so many guys like right, Daniel Jones should be
part of a conversation, and I don't think he's going
to be in redraft leagues. The next player certainly will be,
or at least maybe I think it's Jackson Dart. Maybe
I'm into running upside than everybody else. Drafted QB thirty
two last year, finishes to fourteen again, missed some games.
His per game stuff could be hard, below the in
(21:09):
and out and miss stuff. He's being drafted as a
QB thirteen ADP eighty five. He's one of my favorite
QB twos In season long formats again because of all
the spike weeks. In limited play, he had seven top
ten finishes. He had four top five finishes, and again
it's all about rushing upside. Twenty fantasy points per game
in the games he started, he was fifth in scramble rate.
(21:30):
He was number one in design rush rate. He was
number one in takeoffs per game that scrambles plus design runs.
He was number one in rush yards four to fifty five,
number one in touchdowns at nine, and number one at
first downs in that timeframe. Above Josh Allen in all
of that stuff, maybe not as great if a passer
as we like, also hampered by a lack of talent.
(21:53):
We've seen him force feed neighbors, then force feed Wandale.
I think where you're getting him to be able to
get a guy that I could finish as a weekly
top five guy. I would be rolling with Jackson Dart
and Jacob. He's truly going outside of the QB one
conversation in redraft leats and you can get him in
a last round or a second to last round situation.
(22:15):
I'm doing that every day and twice on Sunday. Where
are you on Dart? I know he is a flowed
player that'll take us into the last part, but the
upside just too juicy for me to say no.
Speaker 1 (22:26):
Yeah, I'm I'm going to say no. Actually, when it
comes to Jackson Dart, I look at what he was
able to do last year, and this was a player
that had just made a lot of sense. We've talked
about Fernando Mendoza a bunch of this offseason and when's
he going to be out there? Starting with Dart, that
was really always the only question was how many weeks
until he gets out on the field, Because when he's
(22:47):
out there, I was confident that he would provide plenty
of upside for fantasy. It was just that waiting game.
But now I look at the same player and a
he is without Wandale Robinson to force that ball to
could be without or with a substantially hampered Malik Neighbors.
We know that, you know, camp Scataboo runs like the
(23:09):
Juggernaut from X Men with head first and could be
out at any point himself, and Jackson Dart has plenty
of injury concerns as well, So all of that into
a pie. You know, I have one guy on the
Giants that I really really like, which is Isaiah. Likely
everybody else I'm just kind of staying away from. The
vibes are also just terrible around this team. And there's
a quarterback going much later that we are going to
(23:31):
talk about John that I think presents the exact same upside,
but you're getting him so much later that there's almost
zero risk.
Speaker 2 (23:40):
YEP, that's you make the all the rational counters to
Jackson Dart can I think he's a great spike week
playing season long again, you don't have to get cute
and pick and choose. And in redraft when I mentioned I, yes,
I'd be satisfied with him. I would normally leave a
redraft table with just one QB, and I think think
(24:00):
if you draft Art, you need to leave with two qbs,
which hurts some of the ball case that I'm making. Right,
it's not a perfect player. If you need a second quarterback,
that's pretty much a fact. Let's get into some of
these floor I call them flowed runners. If you ever
bet a description by all means Now all these guys
are really going extremely late. The earliest is one twenty five.
(24:20):
So man to be able to wait on a starter
and wait this late, it really again speaks to the
super flex conversation. Maybe talk to your commissioner first of it.
Be Tyler Shuck. I love Tyler Shuck. I think I
don't know if anyone had more puff pieces about him
than I did. Last year. I was on it early
and often. Kellen Moore, I put Gidda up. They're tied
(24:41):
for first in play clock speed. They were the only
team that ran more than sixty three plays a game
that scored less than twenty points per game. I think
that will correct with the QB change. And I can't
share charts with everybody here. Maybe I'll put them up
on Twitter or follow me up my name if you'd
like really bullish channels. If you were to chart Tyler
(25:04):
Shuck's EPA per attempt and rush sharts per game, the
things I like most in fantasy. They're both like, you know,
they look like the Atmazon chart from the early two thousands,
so we've seen improvement and you get the fast track
and man, I think he's a bowler and they surrounded
him with weapons. I really like what I see from
the scenes. He's another great kind of compliment. Late, do
(25:24):
you like what I'm seeing from Tyler Shuck?
Speaker 3 (25:26):
At least love it.
Speaker 1 (25:28):
This was a guy that got so dog piled on
last year, mostly because of his age.
Speaker 3 (25:34):
You know, he was really old.
Speaker 1 (25:35):
And I don't get me wrong, I cracked some jokes
about how old this guy is because that's fun to do.
But at a certain point you have to acknowledge the
draft capital that was spent on him by the Saints
and the complete lack of proven talent on their roster
to that point, so it took a long time for
Shuck to finally see the light to day. I was
hoping it would have happened much earlier in the season.
(25:55):
But now we don't have to worry about any of that.
Now all that's cleared for, it's a completely clear runway.
With Jordan Tyson being added, with Travis han being added
to the backfield, you could make an argument that could
hurt some of his rushing upside. I don't know that
I necessarily see that, because hey, I don't think that
Travis a Chan is that good of a running back
to be able to add where you're just going to
(26:16):
be pulling some of the great stuff that your quarterback
can do away from him. So I'm very very much
okay taking Tyler shock and above anybody that we've talked
about thus far on this episode because of where his
cost is. I think I want him the most to
this point.
Speaker 2 (26:33):
Yeah, And if you're buying Saints kind of like I am,
and you like Chris Alave like I do, that's a
really great one two punch at cost. You could be
talking about the back end QB one at the late
QB two Price with the back end wide receiver one
Price who finishes as a mid one wide receiver. We've
seen a lovey just command. He just commands targets and
(26:55):
gonna keep being the drum with the fast track in
the bad defense is trust me, You'll thank me when
it's December and we're talking about Oh man, it's a
game in Cincinnati and it's forty two mile and hour
wins be negative five. Yeah, and our guys are, you know,
wearing T shirts and stuff. It makes a difference. Those
over unders kind of speak for themselves. So yeah, I'm
(27:16):
glad to see a little bit of the Saint love.
I think they're a really exciting team coming at a discount.
I have a feeling this next quarterback is the gentleman
you were talking about. It's k One Kyler Murray, the
newest Viking. I wrote no short jokes or joking. How
when he's scrambling it looks like when my son steals
(27:37):
my cell phone and tries to run away from me.
The question is, is Kevin I promise I won't do it,
so don't let me do it, Jake. My question is,
is Kevin O'Connell the Kingmaker. That was the narrative going
in last year. If your answer is yes, then JJ
McCarthy is just that bad. I went to bring up
(27:59):
the Viking Stats macro stats with koc at the switches,
and I'll be honest, I thought that were gonna be
a little bit better. Very much middle pack. No, not bad,
not bad, but very much middle pack. I thought, just
from the narrative, it was gonna be a spike success rate,
spiked EPA yours for play again, not bad or right
(28:21):
in the middle, nothing near the bottom, but nothing top five,
really nothing that kind of screened. This is gonna make
a difference. I'm not really drafting Kyler Murray, but let
me tell you there's one player that has me really
nervous because tons of sharp people are into it, and
it's k one talk to us about Kyler Murray and
how and why my fantasy season might be in peril
right now.
Speaker 1 (28:42):
Well, I will say, John, this actually was not the
guy I was thinking of when we were talking about
Jackson Dart.
Speaker 3 (28:46):
He's coming up next.
Speaker 1 (28:47):
I believe that we're gonna talk about save him for
the bitter end. Kyler Murray is a very interesting question
because right now we're still going on with the assumption
that he's won the job, which we haven't really heard
vocalized by the team just yet, but ADP certainly suggests
that's the case, that JJ McCarthy's not getting this thing.
But if we do get definitive confirmation in the next
(29:08):
few weeks, yep, it's definitely Kyler Maurice shop. I think
his ADP climbs a little bit higher than where it
is right now because people are still looking at the
rushing upside that he has. You know, his last full season,
he had five hundred and seventy two rushing yards five
rushing touchdowns. That wasn't anywhere close to his career high.
You know, he was hitting eight hundred yards eleven touchdowns
back in twenty twenty. I don't know that he still
(29:29):
has quite that same level of hypermobility or not. But
the fact that Minnesota waited to draft a running back
until the sixth round this year, despite having old man
Aaron Jones who's really gotten worn down and Jordan Mason,
who's just kind of looked underwhelming in a Vikings uniform.
Part of me wonders if they are hiding their hand
a little bit but suggesting our backfield is going to
(29:51):
be fine, our run game is going to be fine
because this quarterback that we have can make up for
a lot of those deficiencies. So I think that Kyler
should be draft over bow Knicks Personally, he's coming off
that brutal ankle injury. Bo Nicks realized a lot of
mobility that he might not have this year. And you
can make an argument that you should also be taking
home over Matt Stafford because he is so TD dependent
(30:14):
and has no rushing upside. So that's where I'm comfortable
drafting Kyler Murray like at his price right now, I'll
take him. If he gets up a few more spots
in QB ranks and a few more rounds in ADP,
it'll be a consideration, but I might do it.
Speaker 2 (30:30):
I'm interested, man, I can be stubborn. That was very compelling.
I think I'm coming around to it. But I'm glad
right we're not full steam ahead, but I think I
need to be maybe a little bit more aggressive on him.
I was just looking to see if he's elevated in right.
There was a time when Hopkins he was elevating. Hopkins
was a ten catch a guy you know ten catch
(30:50):
a game guy for a while. One of those early
eighty few moves I was talking about is justin Jefferson
Is you know jumping CD Lamb right now. He's trump
McCaffrey and even John Taylor in some drafts. And if
you believe that K one has to at least pass,
that was really cool. Sorry, who was the last one?
(31:10):
Let's up every the league? You take the last guy away?
Who could it possibly be? Jake?
Speaker 1 (31:14):
I just can't leave this episode without at least talking
a little bit about Malik Willis. There is obviously a
ton of risk with Malik Willis, who has only started
six games in his entire career. He's playing for a
first year, defensive minded head coach. His offensive coordinator, Bobby Sloweck,
has a solid but not exactly inspiring track record with Houston,
(31:37):
and outside of Devin hn there's just this lack of
proven weapons on the offense that we've talked about a bunch,
and yet John the upside is just so tempting that
I can't look away. So teeniest of sample size alert here,
but let's just look at the three starts in Green
Bay real quick. He had six total touchdowns split evenly
(31:57):
between pass and run. He was averaging eighteen passing attempts
and just over two hundred passing yards per game with
an outrageous eighty percent completion percentage. His yards per attempt
in those games also matched Drake Mays from last year,
who was leading the pack in yards per attempt, so
(32:18):
high high volume, not high volume, excuse me, high velocity
throws and really accurate throws. He was also averaging seven
rush attempts per game fifty eight rush yards per game.
These are very quality numbers. You would be psyched to
have these numbers on your fantasy team every week. The question, though,
is how sustainable are they for an entire season In
(32:40):
one K formats, especially John it is a big swing.
But I'm looking for difference makers in one QB. I
don't want to just have somebody who will give me
replacement level fantasy numbers. I want the guy who can
win me weeks, get me top ten weeks at least.
I think he can still do that even with this
motley crew that he has. The island of misfit toys
(33:02):
that he's throwing to the upside is just it's justin
Field's esk. It's prime Kyler Murray esque. So if I'm
gonna wait, this is where I wait until the bitter end.
Speaker 2 (33:13):
I think, John, I mean, you are correct. The sample
is small, but you didn't mention any of the passing
stats and all the biggest sample I could find is
his career stats. I know it's not a huge sample,
but there's a you know, like a ton to like here.
The EPA is excellent, it's over point two. The completion
(33:34):
rates that's sixty eight percent. We love that the off
target raiders in the single digits. We love that the
passer rating is bordering on one hundred. We love that,
I mean he gets the ball to the sticks more
than forty percent of the time. There's a lot to
like here. Then you mentioned, of course, all the rushing
upside I mentioned. If I grab a guy like Dart,
knowing that it's risky and knowing that I need a supplement,
(33:56):
give me Dart and Malik Willis in the last two rounds.
If I could really get away with that, to me,
that feels like highway robbery. One of the best shots
at not just QB one upside, overall QB one upside.
That's really what we're dealing with I had to my
notes were kind of kind of weak on this one
because again the sample samall I wrote upside case. See
(34:18):
week three of twenty twenty five at Tennessee. He passed
for two oho two one without a pick, seven carries
seventy three and one. Awesome. Then week seventeen against Baltimore, who,
by the way, is a legitimately good defense. They were
at full strength at the time. He went to eighty
eight one to zero. Again, lots of passing, no turnovers,
nine sixty and two, and my fantasy antenna is popping
(34:41):
out of my forehead right now. So yeah, I love
the Willis call. I think you're all over that. He's
also one of my highest roster guys. I think he's
the best compliment on the board man, Jake. That was
one thousand miles an hour. We're putting a ton of
great influence for everybody. So from John and Jake, everyone,
thanks for listening. Hit us up on Social of femnity,
quie gents, and enjoy the weekend. Thanks for listening everyone.
(35:09):
I don't know
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