June 26, 2026 • 33 mins
Jake and John are making their way through several backfields this week, breaking down the potential splits, pitfalls and sleepers in cities such as Tampa, Nashville, Pittsburgh and Denver! The guys preview the upcoming sophomore campaign for the Patriots' Henderson, parse out the Panthers options and much more! Don't miss a special running back dedicated episode as we close out the month of June with a bang!
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Time now for Fantasy Football Weekly from iHeartRadio, your weekly
source for the nation's best fantasy speculation and advice.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
What's up, everyone, and welcome back to another offseason edition
of Fantasy Football Weekly with your host John mcgaze at
John mcgaze on Twitter. Hit us up with any questions,
my friend and yours, mister Jake Trowbridge running backs or
all the talk right now? Jake, it's because of that
right kind of perceived week draft class. We're now seeing
the impacts of that on drafting rooms. What's hold on
(00:33):
to You? Ready for a jam packed RB episode?
Speaker 3 (00:35):
Oh, I'm ready, I'm ready.
Speaker 1 (00:37):
The question is are the listeners ready to get all
the all goods on these you know? I was I
don't know what the title of this thing's gonna be
when it comes out, John, But when I was referring
to these, you know, murky backfields, initially I was calling
them muddy backfields, and I decided I'm gonna stop doing
that because it sounds too much like a euphemism that
you'd hear in a commercial for pepto bismol or something.
Speaker 3 (00:59):
Muddy backfield.
Speaker 1 (01:00):
I don't want to be that guy. So messy backfields
let's let's maybe go with that.
Speaker 2 (01:04):
Yeah, maybe be careful typing that one into Google. You
never know in front of people, you never know it's
gonna come up. Maybe not safe for work. All right,
So the discussion topic today is write those you know,
vague backfields right where it's kind of a gray area
and chaos being a ladder, Fantasy football being a game
of attrition. League are gonna be one and lost on
(01:28):
how you play these right, whether it's at the draft
table or in season. I think having a good idea
these murky backfields what it's like. So we have half
a dozen of them. I want to thank you for
putting them together. I do agree with the teams. We'll
get through them. First up is Washington. I'm gonna just
try and set the table as quick as I can,
and then we'll go from there because it's really just
(01:49):
an open form here. What do we think? Do we
like the lead? Are we off the lead? Do we
like the backup? Or we on both of them or
none of them or anything in between. So we start
with the Commanders. You know, they were number one in
your you have to contact per rush, top five in
rush rate, although they were fifteenth in running back rush
yards per game, right because they do run. It was
Jayden Daniels. It was also a little bit of Mariota
(02:10):
looking kind of spry at times. So right now the
room is constituted. They bring in Rashad White ADP one
to eleven from Tampa. He had two top ten weeks,
zero top five weeks. My quick note was he was
better than expected, running, not as much kind of plotted.
He was a little bit better than I thought. Then
we have JCM, everyone's favorite seventh rounder from last year,
ADP one twenty one, so right off the bat right
(02:31):
very close. He had two top ten weeks, one top
five week, a little bit of ceiling. I have good
yak Ypa, especially given the amount of eight men boxes
that he faced. I was a little surprised with what
I saw from j CM. And then k Tron Allen,
the rookie ADP two hundred and six rounder out of
Penn State, and I noticed a pretty good balance of
volume and catches decent amount of touchdowns. So where are
(02:54):
you on Washington? Rushad White is one of the bean
risers lately. I think just as people died just what's
going on. He appears to be the RB one and
that EDP is a little bit cheap for RB one's
nowadays you have to pick one hundred. What do you
think about the commander's backfield, Jake.
Speaker 1 (03:10):
Yeah, John, I think that's gonna be a recurring theme
throughout this episode.
Speaker 3 (03:14):
Probably is.
Speaker 1 (03:15):
You know, with all of these we're going to talk about,
they're all so cheap with very few exceptions that you
can take shots wherever you like on any of these.
It's not a big commitment. You know, if it doesn't
work out, you can drop them without too much regret.
So we're just looking for guys that can hit, and
if they do, you know, you'll be on a much
more linear route to the Fantasy Championships, like people who
(03:36):
got Javonte Williams last year. That's the kind of thing
that we're looking at with this. Of course, Paul Charchion
always called it the do the Opposite strategy aka zero RB,
and Rashad White is a heck of a zero RB
or do the opposite kind of running back because you
nailed it. I'm not gonna say that he's a great
pure runner because he's not. But he's a little better
(03:57):
than he gets credit for. And he's so good at
earning targets out of the backfield. I think that's where
I want to start with Washington, is which of these
guys do I think can actually be the checkdown option
for Jane Daniels, even though he doesn't check down a ton.
I think it's the most valuable thing. Because this team
also had a change of offensive coordinator, John, We're going
(04:19):
from Cliff Kingsbury to David Blow. Yeah, Blau was there
as the QB assistance coach last year. I don't really
know what that means other than, hey, you're comfortable being around.
Speaker 3 (04:31):
The practice field.
Speaker 1 (04:32):
I suppose David Blow, though we don't know what his
tendencies are going to be. We know Cliff Kingsbury was
very good at just getting a good rushing offense. But
you know, first year OC John, do you think it
makes sense like I do to say I'm gonna target
the veterans on this team because of that, because the
new guy coming in probably needs a little bit of
(04:54):
help that way.
Speaker 2 (04:55):
Yeah, I would say, especially in the running back room here.
I think with Sean White is one of the veterans here,
you know he's gonna know where to be and how
to produce, and you know the EPA and success rates
were better than I thought. He's actually getting me onto
Rashad White and maybe away from JCM, who feels like
again you mentioned White's how prolific he is in the
(05:17):
past game. Jayden Daniels is so good with RPO stuff.
This could be a match made in heaven. And yeah,
I think he's going entirely too late. Even if you're
gonna give up a little bit of maybe goal line equity,
I think that's fine at the price. So going through this,
I think I'm into Rashad White. I think maybe a
little lower on merrity. Maybe it's just a few picks
too high. And I think I like Alan. You know,
(05:39):
if you're doing these Best Bowl drafts and you're looking
to just fill in to backfill, I'm not sure i'd
be so into him in redraft. And then they also
have Jerome Ford, but I think that's a little bit
outside of our scope. Next up would be Tennessee oh
Man audible sigh. If you couldn't pick up on the
audible side, uh led with So my notes say, despite
the third lowest heavy box rate, they were still a
(06:02):
bottom five ozer line and a bottom five rushing offense
in terms of rush rate, rush per game, EPA, rush
yards per game, yards before contact per rush, rush success rate,
and explosive rush rate, so basically every single thing that
matters analytically. They did draft the fifth round guard, but
they're also ranked again to be bottom five going forward.
(06:25):
He got powered ADP seventy six. He had one top
five week. You get volume, but the efficiency not great.
He really is a pass game asset. Taji Spears pick
one sixty two, not a single top ten week. I
put same archetype as Pollared, but worse. I just think
Pollard is a much better player in both assets of
the game. And then they drafted Nicolas Singleton. He's only
(06:46):
EDP one ninety, which is a little bit high for
a third back, and a couple of thousand yard seasons
looks like some injuries and some low volume in the
last one, and he can catch the ball. I think
I'm just like so out on Tennessee until I see it.
People are excited about Ward. He could take a step forward.
They also have not done much in the way of
(07:08):
protecting him, mister Jake, And That's where I'm worried and
how defenses kind of react to that right. When you
don't present a threat to every blade of grass, defenses adjust,
and I think that kind of rolls downhill. So I'm
off the Titans. You have anything different. I mean, I've
landed on Pollard where he's fallen, just to be honest
when my roster rate comes out. But I'm not into
(07:29):
the Titans this year.
Speaker 1 (07:30):
I mean, I'm getting more interested in the Titans actually,
as I realized the pieces they added outside of that
guard and Nick Singleton, you know, they did add a
pretty solid wide receiver. A lot of folks seem to
think fourth overall in the draft by adding Carnal Tate,
they bring in Wanda Robinson. Maybe those guys can actually
(07:51):
keep the offense humming along more where all of the
guys in this backfield get more opportunities. That's the hope
at least. And of course bringing in Brian Dable change
of offensive coordinator.
Speaker 3 (08:02):
He's been good.
Speaker 1 (08:03):
You know, he has a good history of utilizing his
running backs. Probably more important, he has a good history
of emphasizing one running back, which is not common in
a lot of these backfields. We're talking about John So
that's why I'm into Tony Pollard, thinking that based on
Nicholas Singleton. You know, he broke his foot before the
senior ball. I think that's part of the reason that
(08:25):
caused him to slide down draft boards, and so Tony
Pollard should be the one who at least gets the
hot start, and you know in redraft that's more valuable
and his adp for a guy who's put up a
thousand yard rushing seasons four years in a row and
hovers around thirteen hundred scrimmage yards.
Speaker 3 (08:44):
I'm not gonna lie. I'm kind of enticed by it. John.
Speaker 1 (08:48):
I The issue is how long will Tony Pollard keep
that role? And will because I agree, I don't think
ty J. Spears is much to worry about. So I'm
just showing him away and I'm waiting on Nicholas Singleton
to get healthy. Maybe that's when he sneaks in and
then this rupts this whole thing, and then you're kind
of screwed.
Speaker 2 (09:05):
Yeah, the audio only people couldn't see, you know, luckily
for them my face and cheshire Cat's smile, because I
was a huge proponent of Tony Pollard last year. But
remember those total stats could be a little bit misleading.
By the time he was delivering. It was a little
too late for me. Although I don't want to blame
it on Pollard. I went down the Bucky Irving road
(09:26):
last year. That injury kept getting delayed and delayed and delayed.
You can't really keep fulling behind in fantasy football. Maybe
I wasn't proactive enough, but I did fall for it.
But it was funny with Pollard, who just I mean
by the time we were into week twelve, right, so
the two games after coming out of the by when
you're like, okay, maybe we'll get explosive again, he goes
ten for twenty two, then eleven for twenty. I made
(09:49):
a few catches but only total twenty five receiving yards,
and then like who would have funk it? You know,
he just went absolutely crazy. So he's also n plus one.
We talked about those lower body inches removed from Matt
tightrope surgery. Pollard was like a top ten overall pick
like two years ago. So I think I'm with you.
I think I am buying it again because of the price.
(10:10):
I also want to take a little bit of a
lowercase L on Tait And it's just like you mentioned,
the the draft capital is so high. Think about where
we were taking Marvin Harrison. Now that didn't work out,
and maybe this is an example of kind of once
bitten twice shy, But just to equate draft capital to
fantasy draft capital, you gotta think his sixty ADYP Tate
(10:34):
is a steal for we went in the draft, right.
Speaker 1 (10:37):
I'm more lukewarm on Carnal Tait as an individual fantasy
asset than most. I like him to hopefully help the
offense overall. And so if you're somebody in a two
QB league who wants to draft, you know, cam Ward
or again wants to invest in one of these running backs.
Speaker 3 (10:52):
I like Carnal Tait for that. For real life.
Speaker 1 (10:55):
I'm a little lukewarm because I actually think his ADP
is too high. Personally, I think he gets a pro
ready wide receiver. That's fine, But I don't see this
crazy high ceiling that a lot of people do.
Speaker 2 (11:06):
Interesting. Yeah, a lot of it is just based on
draft capital, and we've seen that mislead. But I'm a
price guy. I have not drafted Tait once. I tend
to be that kind of strict drafted Jake. I do
a lot of zeroing out. I zero out a lot
of teams in a lot of situations. I don't like
to put my hard earned money on players and teams
(11:28):
I don't really believe in. I like to see it.
First call me and Missouri, all right, next our third backfield,
that's buddy is Pittsburgh, right. We generally think of as
a running team. This is kind of interesting. Pittsburgh last
year bottom five in attemps per game. That's a running team.
With the Steelers or any Aaron Rodgers team. They move
like they're in molasses. However, they were top ten and
(11:49):
success rate. They do it well, low play volume in general,
like I mentioned. So it's Jalen Warren ADP seventy five.
He had three top ten weeks, one top five week,
and I have to admit this is one of the
reasons that I'm very glad to be doing the show
because when I kind of uncovered this stone, I was
really impressive what I saw from Warren. I were underrated
(12:11):
duel threat, you get efficiency, plus there was volume. I
didn't realize it, you know, kind of got out shown
by gain Well a little bit, who was fantastic. But
now he's gone. They bring in Rico Daudo, who I
put slightly better runner, but not much. He's the biggest,
so he's probably in line for all the you know,
empty calorie work, maybe a little bit more of the
(12:32):
goal one work. But man, I'm kind of getting into
Jalen Warren at ADP seventy five. What do you think
about the Steelers backfield? It's also split. They're a little
more expensive where I don't think you could take them both.
I think you have to have a stand here if
you like someone for Pittsburgh.
Speaker 1 (12:49):
Yeah, John, I think they're more expensive than the rest
of these guys. Because even though the Steelers had what
the fifth lowest team rushing attempts last year, because as
you said, they moved so slow, Warren and Gainwell were
the only backfield mates to eclip eclipse a thousand scrimmage
yards each, which is wild. That just speaks to how
(13:09):
efficient that both of them were, and frankly, how much
old man Rogers just dumped that ball off because he
was terrified if anybody on the defense looked at him
the wrong way. So I think leaning into that run
game was obviously a necessity. Maybe Michael Pittman coming on
board with this team gives him another option to feel
(13:29):
comfortable getting the ball out quick but not necessarily having
it go to one of these running backs or if
you're one of these Sikos out there, John, who've been
doing you know, a million rookie dynasty drafts. At this point,
this Eli Heidenreich name keeps popping up, and oh, we
have another next CMC, so drop the balloons. That's the
(13:51):
thousandth player that we've heard is going to be the
next CMC with zero actual basis for that other than
he caught a bunch of passes at Navy, so he's
got to be the same guy. But John, can we
at least agree Caleb Johnson is gone right, like completely
out of the realm of possibility of coming back.
Speaker 3 (14:11):
Is that fair at.
Speaker 2 (14:12):
Least for right now, especially after the draft pick here
and all the reports coming out, And I think, if anything,
you know, lessons learned because I unfortunately bought some of
that last season, and there's a place for rookies. You
just shouldn't really paying up for it, you know, because
you're oftentimes paying for the production that hasn't happened. And
(14:35):
I've joked about it before on my own show. On
this show, sometimes there's value and just knowing where to
stand right. Veterans know where to stand. They understand Cole's
and how to do audibles and be in the right
place at the right time. And we know, particularly in Pittsburgh,
there is a tax for not standing in the right place.
It's called the not standing in the right place tax.
(14:55):
And Aaron Rodgers make sure to get his pound of
black and yellow flesh every time that you betray him
on that it's the truth. Will he will grab you
by the face mask like you will hear it in
the press conferences and stuff, and then you see it
in the utilization. So I think you make a real
you make a well, you make a lot of great points,
but the usage point. If you saw me scrambling to
(15:16):
my post it note, I want to make sure that
I go back and circle all of these backfields you
mentioned Tony Pollard having a good route to singular use.
One hundred percent agreed that that's mostly gone the way
of the Dodo Jake. We're looking for two running back right.
That was the real point that I took from that
is ooh, a backfield with only two and not three
(15:39):
really boosts both of their value. Maybe I have to
pump the brakes on what I was saying about them
being a little too expensive. They are more expensive than
other tandems. But man, if you think even at a
slower rate and a lower like a smaller pie, that
they're going to be splitting all of it, which is
all the pass catching, all the garbage time, all the
end zone work. Young man, I think I'm getting sold
(16:00):
on the Pittsburgh Backs. I haven't really drafted them, but
I think I'm going through it. And again we saw
Rogers just hyper target game. Well, a little bit of
that goes to war and he's a smash. Well, let
me give you a little bit more.
Speaker 1 (16:13):
Just onto the fire here real quick, John, because I'm
gonna get you drafting both of these guys.
Speaker 3 (16:17):
So many times by the end of this offseason.
Speaker 1 (16:19):
The Steelers also have i would say, arguably the easiest
first half schedule of any team in the NFL. In
their first eight weeks, they're only going against one team
with a winning percentage in twenty twenty five, and that's
New England. The rest of these seven teams collected having
a total win loss record last year of forty six
(16:40):
wins and seventy three losses. Obviously, things change. We can't
just assume it's going to be the same year year
over year. But if you're looking at a team that's
gonna have positive game scripts, which we often need for
running backs, especially split backfield, to be.
Speaker 3 (16:55):
Successful, then I think this is the one to go with.
Speaker 1 (16:58):
Don And both have three down potential, so I think
both can handle the workload. Doudo does have the connection
with Mike McCarthy coming in from their year really or
year and a half, I guess in Dallas. So if
I had to choose, when, I'm going Dado, but I'll
take both.
Speaker 2 (17:13):
Wow, another awesome point. You had me scrambling to my
post it notes again about early scheduling, dude, it matters.
I have ignored it too often in redraft, where you
want to get out to a good start, they might
be injuries you don't plan for Week fifteen. In redraft,
get out to a good start. Those players have more
value out of the box. I think that was really great.
(17:36):
Sorry to rush on now, and I'm glad we got
that in. All right, So that's three of the six teams.
Let's take about at a quick breather, let's circle back.
I have another three teams that I really want to
get into. I think we're making good pace and we're
going to get through everything today. All right, Jake, let's
start a page into the second half here. Next up,
it's the Patriots, now a team that people are really
(17:57):
excited about, and another team right with that kind of
two had a backfield. They were sixth in rush yarts
per game, but eleventh in running back rush arts for him,
of course, Drake may taking that up. I wanted to
look at the goal to go carries. Henderson had sixteen
led the way, Mandre fifteen May thirteen, but Romandre did
miss three games in the middle of the season. They
faced the second heaviest, heaviest, highest box rate, and then
(18:20):
you know it's I just wrote the word frustrating in
the biggest letters that I could, where it didn't go
across the line. You know. The biggest surprise to me
was that in the games together, Romandre actually out snapped
Trevion when the Patriots were tied or trailing. They had
the same amount of targets, but Mandre actually had one
hundred more receiving yards. The reason I mentioned that is
(18:42):
I think I kind of been these players as thunder
and lightning. Right, It's very easy for us to do
that there's a bigger back that rungs and a more
scatty back that catches. That's not always the case for
Mare was a really good runner. He was also pretty
darn good in the past game man, their ADPs are
fifty one Henderson seventy five Madre who I think maybe
(19:05):
those should be flipped, And that, again is not a
very popular opinion. I was not drafting Henderson last year
because I was worried. We did see the potential in
those games about Stevenson, so that to say, it's still
it's a lot of gray matter going on here. What
do you think about the pet about the Patriots backs.
Speaker 3 (19:21):
Yeah, John, I don't.
Speaker 1 (19:22):
I don't know why didn't Henderson's ADP drop like at
all from last year. It feels like this is right
around where folks were drafting him last year. And I
understand the upside is very enticing. I get it, but
I just would have assumed he would have dropped down
because of the disappointment he gave everybody last year. And
I guess folks are looking at the end of year
(19:43):
stat totals, which I'm victim of doing sometimes myself. But
if you look at the time where Henderson actually started
to shine. It wasn't until week nine of last year,
and that's when Ramondra Stevenson got injured, as you said.
And when Stevenson got healthy again, then he was again
playing a lot more snaps than Henderson was because he's
a better pass blocker and a better pass catcher even
(20:05):
than Henderson was. I think the assumption was Henderson will
grow into this role as a receiving back, and he might.
He might, but Ramondre Stevenson looked better than he did.
And I just want to focus on the snap counts
from week thirteen on because that's when Ramondre came back
from his injury and was basically healthy. And you talked
about the snap counts. But week thirteen on, including the
(20:28):
actual NFL playoffs, Remondre Stevenson three hundred and eighty snaps
Traveon Henderson two hundred and twelve snaps. That's a wild
difference at the tail end of the season. To still
have a guy like that have such high ADP and
to have the ADPs not flipped like you said, so,
I don't know. You give me Ramondre Stevenson a few
(20:49):
rounds later if eventually things shift, I'll adapt, I'll move,
i'll trade, I'll drop him to waivers, whatever. But I'm
not going to start with Henderson on thessumption that he's
just gonna come out of the box looking great.
Speaker 2 (21:03):
There's no reason to think that. I mean, and the
playoff touchcounts were very heavily in favor of Stevenson thirteen
to ten against the Chargers, twenty to thirteen Houston, twenty
five to three at Denver. That's a blowout, and then
(21:25):
twelve nine Seattle, Like there wasn't a single time where
they said when the chips are down, Henderson is the guy.
He's just And it might be and Henderson drifters, might
get lucky. Maybe Stevenson, you know, hits the lottery and
goes into that mindful this retreat I'm always talking about. Maybe,
and then there's a case that Trevion could legit be
the RB one or among at least the top five
(21:47):
running backs. But until then, I think you're overpaying. And Stevenson,
to me at least is the most obvious smash zero
RP pick ever, right because generally when I go zero RB,
I'm asking myself, Jay, are there any points in Week one?
Are there anything? Because where I've made the mistake is
having the pendulum swing too far leave myself out in
(22:09):
the cold in the early weeks. Right, So would you
buy that like Rashad White and Ramandre Stevenson are going
to score points week one? Yes or no?
Speaker 1 (22:18):
I say yes, and I say definitively yes, and so
I think yeah, redraft and by the way, and I
will say even dynasty value for Trey Van Henderson way
too inflated. That's another one that took zero hit based
off of a performance last year. And I don't get
it in either format.
Speaker 2 (22:34):
Yeah, I don't. Sometimes this is really interesting when we
talk about market machinations and going against the trend and
wisdom of the crowd, sometimes you have to be willing
to say, like no, and you know, again, we're not
taking a player in the three hundred snowes I've heard of.
We're talking about an accomplished like back with success on
a winning team that's healthy and leading the way. I
(22:56):
don't know, it's weird. I asked her if they could
both score week one. I should have asked, can lead
the running back room in Fantasy points Week one? And
again the answer Jeffs. Next team up, Carolina Panthers. Okay,
so they were top twelve in rush rate, but bottom
ten in explosive rush rate. They're also thirtieth in rushing touchdowns.
You got Twoba Harbard his back ADP seventy three. He
had three top ten weeks, not a single top five week.
(23:18):
There's a question about ceiling here. We know what happened
when he got replaced by Rico Dawdel. I have not
been drafting Harvard at all. His ADP is now converging
with backup Jonathan Brooks. I haven't listed at one five,
but I've been in these draft room, Jake. They're getting
closer to about the low nineties. They're both they're going
next to each other in the low nineties. So ADP,
(23:41):
let me get closer to the season. We'll be using
tighter windows for larger samples. But John Brooks, I mean,
he had a really great twenty twenty three, but last
I checked, it's twenty twenty six. We haven't seen much
from him. They are over the moon about this guy. Though.
There was not a single report out of that teams
camp that does not include Brooks and how he looks
(24:03):
like he could be everything. So again, to me, if
you're playing for two types of ceiling in zero RB
Stevenson and White being that more vanilla lower higher floor,
lower ceiling Brooks. If this works out right, he could
be the RB one by week three, maybe sooner if
he outperforms him. In camp. We saw the Panthers be
willing to go away from Hubbard. So what do you
(24:23):
think about the Brooks room. You started nudging me into Brooks,
and the more I've looked, the more I've liked. Again,
the price is getting high. So I saw you nodding,
where's the cutoff for Brooks? Make sure you include that, please.
Speaker 1 (24:35):
Yeah, the cutoff if Brooks starts going, you know, into
this dead zone running back area, which to me starts
at around round six round seven, when he starts creeping
up at around six in round seven, as we get
more and more positive reports, I'm assuming that'll happen. I
don't know for sure. Then I'm gonna be out just
because we're still talking about a guy who's had two
(24:55):
ACL tears, you know, in the last two years to
the same AC, and I know he's gotten some distance
from the injury, and I'm excited to see what his
upside can look like but it's store up to bank
on something like that right now. But I do want
to try to follow the money on this, John, because
that's in these dicey backfields where you're just trying to
(25:15):
figure out who could be the real lead back. I
was working my way through this, and so the Panthers
signed Toba Hubbard to a four year extension thirty three million,
a few months only after spending their second round pick
on Brooks, and Brooks was coming into the season injured.
Obviously he was still recovering from that first ACL injury,
(25:36):
but Hubbard gave him a ton of or Hubbard got
a ton of money before Brooks tore the ACL a
second time, so they were already The Panther is being like,
we want Hubbard to be our guy, but I don't
know that it matters anymore, John, because a year prior
to that, they gave Miles Sanders.
Speaker 3 (25:54):
Remember that guy. They gave Miles Sanders.
Speaker 1 (25:56):
Almost an equivalent contract, And then we're just like, no,
it's through this guy.
Speaker 3 (26:00):
We're moving on.
Speaker 1 (26:01):
He says he's terrible. We're turning the backfield over to Hubbard.
So if Brooks is really as good as they're saying,
and they spent that second round pick on him, he
could absolutely leap frog Hubbard. And he does have a
higher ceiling, a much lower floor, but a way higher ceiling.
Like you said, So, I'm kind of willing to absorb
the risk here.
Speaker 2 (26:22):
Yep, one hundred percent love it, especially in redraft where
the floor is zero. Okay, snip snip, ceil aer pal.
You know, thanks for playing where again best ball, and
these year long commitments. It's a little harder to pay
the premium without at least the information that we want. Now,
keep in mind that I'm kind of setting you up here, Jay.
If you had the guess of the one hundred and
(26:43):
thirty four rush attempts that Chew Bahabber had in twenty
twenty five, do you know exactly how many went from
more than twenty yards?
Speaker 3 (26:51):
Ooh, more than twenty It's.
Speaker 2 (26:54):
How many twenty yard rushing a Bobber had in twenty
twenty five.
Speaker 3 (26:57):
I'll give him one just to be nice.
Speaker 2 (26:59):
Yeah, the zero. And you know there's a lack of
explosivity here, right, there's a lack of explosivity. In fact,
he only didn't stay away from the goose egg and
explosive rush rate. I think explosive rush rate might be thirteen,
so he had won between thirteen and twenty. But that's it.
So he's gonna like writs that three yards and a
(27:21):
cloud of dust thing because the success rate is actually
pretty good, right, forty eight percent success rate. You're gonna
take that and maybe the most impressive number. And this
is why they like him so much. Jake, is I
like to account for negative or zero? I guess like not,
so let's call it non positive. A tenth rate records
of zero is not great either. Some people just do losses,
(27:43):
but I don't think that's good either. And his was
down at just twelve percent. That is fantastic. There are
running backs that operate full workloads up and around or
above twenty, which is the truth. So he doesn't get
stopped for nothing, but he's not gonna get you everything.
And I think the more we kind of talk through
(28:04):
this analytically, you see why he's gotten replaced without being removed.
Does that make sense? Right? He got replaced, There areb
one kind of got replaced, but he didn't get removed
because his role is still extremely valuable. He's not gonna
give it up. He's not gonna put on the floor.
He's not gonna burn you. He's not gonna do happy
feet in the backfield and lose your six yards. He
(28:24):
doesn't do that. And those are like sacks, which we
all know kill drive. So I'd like Hubbard as a
real football player. I think I'm off him completely now
as a fantasy asset. Right, he kind of had that chance,
didn't run away with it. Man, This has been really
good episode. When I have quick notes, I keep myself
from tangenting too much. Last, but not least, of course,
(28:46):
Denver Broncos high expectations, bottom twelve rush rate, but also
bottom twelve in EPA per attempt. They were thirty first
in yards after contact per rush. Not great. You've got RJ.
Harvey to choose from. ADP eighty seven, also very late
for an RB one depending he had three top ten weeks,
two top five, so there is some ceiling because of
(29:07):
the rushing floor. JK. Dobbins ADP. One hundred, no top ten. Again,
it's all kind of rushing impact. This when I put
that phrase I mentioned before thunder and lightening, because this
really is the closest we have to it. Dobbins is
all the important ground yards and if they're down, he's
kind of out and they go right to Harvey. So
(29:28):
you have like weekly floors where you can get games
scripted out. They both seem startworthy on a per week basis,
though the Broncos have been known to go to RB three,
four and five sometimes. I've been finding myself kind of
out though Harvey's been one of the foilers Jake, and
when I've seen him in the triple digit ADP, I've
(29:50):
seen him at pick one hundred, then I'm jumping on board.
Dobbin's not so much because I like my running backs
to catch. What do you think about the Broncos tailbacks?
Speaker 1 (29:58):
Yeah, Harvey had the kind of season fall that I
expected from Trayvon Henderson last year, even though Harvey ended
on a much better note. Granted that was because JK.
Dobbins got injured and Harvey came in and he looked solid.
But I'll be honest, John, I hate this backfield. I
hate it with a burning, white hot passion because here's
the thing.
Speaker 3 (30:18):
I know that JK.
Speaker 1 (30:19):
Dobbins is going to lead this backfield and touches until
he gets hurt. But I don't know when that's gonna be,
and I'm not sure that I even care because, as
you said, Dobbins doesn't catch passes. Last year, ten games
he had eleven catches. He had more games with negative
receiving yards than games with double digit receiving yards.
Speaker 3 (30:38):
So you're just.
Speaker 1 (30:38):
Banking on touchdowns with him and Jonah Coleman. The rookie
comes in, who I've started to grow to like a lot,
especially in Dynasty. He's a legitimate three down running back,
so I think he's more competition for Dobbins straight up
than Harvey or Julia McLoughlin were last year. So I
think the bull case for any of these eyes and
(31:00):
it's picked your your poison. But the ball case is
the Broncos take a step forward as a scoring offense.
You know, they bring in Jalen Waddle, bow Knicks just
continues to improve.
Speaker 3 (31:10):
All that's great.
Speaker 1 (31:12):
We expect them to throw less because they threw a
ton last year, six hundred plus passes from bow Knicks.
You know bo Nix's late season ankle injury. Maybe he
doesn't take off and run himself so much and he
gives that to the actual running backs on the field.
Speaker 3 (31:26):
But I don't know.
Speaker 1 (31:27):
It just feels like even when Dobbins was healthy last year,
he was the RB twenty four in points per game.
That's fine, that's where you're drafting him. I'm not saying
there's anything wrong with that, but I don't know that
we're getting ten games, John. What if we get five
games of JK Dobbins as sort of this fringe RB two.
Speaker 3 (31:44):
I don't know.
Speaker 1 (31:45):
I kind of just don't even want to deal with it.
I don't think Harvey did anything to usurp Dobbins this year,
so I'm not banking on him. And yeah, Jonah Coleman
is somebody I'll probably just look at for a midseason
waiver pickup, assuming that JK.
Speaker 3 (31:59):
Dobbins gets hurt.
Speaker 2 (32:00):
Yeah, I'm with you. Coleman passes a lot of the
sniff tests usage and abilities and both sides of the game.
But it's always gonna be difficult because you know, last
year we saw it. You mentioned Julia McLaughlin, right, he
had at least four carries in eight of their last
nine games. Those are touches we want. And that as
(32:22):
if like that wasn't bad enough, you know, Tyler Batty
made at least one grab in more games than not,
and it doesn't sound like a lot, but when a
split backfield is sacrificing seven, eight, nine RB touches, that's
a bunch of snaps and it just hurts everybody across
the board. I guess I'm still taking Harvey as like
(32:45):
a flex pick, but I'm with you. I'd say you
talked me off and I was already kind of heading
towards the ledge. I'm gonna stick with my If Harvey
post one hundred, then press yes button. But other than that,
I'm really out. Like you mentioned, not only the Broncos
really creative with usage. They brought in pieces which is
going to shake up that etches ketch a gun Jake.
(33:05):
That was really awesome and we got through all six teams.
Like you said, you believed in us, and you were right.
So from John mcgay's and mister Jake Shrobridge, thank you
everybody for listening to Fantasy Football Weekly. Hit us up
on social media if you have any questions, and everyone
enjoy the weekend, take care of
Time now for Fantasy Football Weekly from iHeartRadio, your weekly
source for the nation's best fantasy speculation and advice.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
What's up, everyone, and welcome back to another offseason edition
of Fantasy Football Weekly with your host John mcgaze at
John mcgaze on Twitter. Hit us up with any questions,
my friend and yours, mister Jake Trowbridge running backs or
all the talk right now? Jake, it's because of that
right kind of perceived week draft class. We're now seeing
the impacts of that on drafting rooms. What's hold on
(00:33):
to You? Ready for a jam packed RB episode?
Speaker 3 (00:35):
Oh, I'm ready, I'm ready.
Speaker 1 (00:37):
The question is are the listeners ready to get all
the all goods on these you know? I was I
don't know what the title of this thing's gonna be
when it comes out, John, But when I was referring
to these, you know, murky backfields, initially I was calling
them muddy backfields, and I decided I'm gonna stop doing
that because it sounds too much like a euphemism that
you'd hear in a commercial for pepto bismol or something.
Speaker 3 (00:59):
Muddy backfield.
Speaker 1 (01:00):
I don't want to be that guy. So messy backfields
let's let's maybe go with that.
Speaker 2 (01:04):
Yeah, maybe be careful typing that one into Google. You
never know in front of people, you never know it's
gonna come up. Maybe not safe for work. All right,
So the discussion topic today is write those you know,
vague backfields right where it's kind of a gray area
and chaos being a ladder, Fantasy football being a game
of attrition. League are gonna be one and lost on
(01:28):
how you play these right, whether it's at the draft
table or in season. I think having a good idea
these murky backfields what it's like. So we have half
a dozen of them. I want to thank you for
putting them together. I do agree with the teams. We'll
get through them. First up is Washington. I'm gonna just
try and set the table as quick as I can,
and then we'll go from there because it's really just
(01:49):
an open form here. What do we think? Do we
like the lead? Are we off the lead? Do we
like the backup? Or we on both of them or
none of them or anything in between. So we start
with the Commanders. You know, they were number one in
your you have to contact per rush, top five in
rush rate, although they were fifteenth in running back rush
yards per game, right because they do run. It was
Jayden Daniels. It was also a little bit of Mariota
(02:10):
looking kind of spry at times. So right now the
room is constituted. They bring in Rashad White ADP one
to eleven from Tampa. He had two top ten weeks,
zero top five weeks. My quick note was he was
better than expected, running, not as much kind of plotted.
He was a little bit better than I thought. Then
we have JCM, everyone's favorite seventh rounder from last year,
ADP one twenty one, so right off the bat right
(02:31):
very close. He had two top ten weeks, one top
five week, a little bit of ceiling. I have good
yak Ypa, especially given the amount of eight men boxes
that he faced. I was a little surprised with what
I saw from j CM. And then k Tron Allen,
the rookie ADP two hundred and six rounder out of
Penn State, and I noticed a pretty good balance of
volume and catches decent amount of touchdowns. So where are
(02:54):
you on Washington? Rushad White is one of the bean
risers lately. I think just as people died just what's
going on. He appears to be the RB one and
that EDP is a little bit cheap for RB one's
nowadays you have to pick one hundred. What do you
think about the commander's backfield, Jake.
Speaker 1 (03:10):
Yeah, John, I think that's gonna be a recurring theme
throughout this episode.
Speaker 3 (03:14):
Probably is.
Speaker 1 (03:15):
You know, with all of these we're going to talk about,
they're all so cheap with very few exceptions that you
can take shots wherever you like on any of these.
It's not a big commitment. You know, if it doesn't
work out, you can drop them without too much regret.
So we're just looking for guys that can hit, and
if they do, you know, you'll be on a much
more linear route to the Fantasy Championships, like people who
(03:36):
got Javonte Williams last year. That's the kind of thing
that we're looking at with this. Of course, Paul Charchion
always called it the do the Opposite strategy aka zero RB,
and Rashad White is a heck of a zero RB
or do the opposite kind of running back because you
nailed it. I'm not gonna say that he's a great
pure runner because he's not. But he's a little better
(03:57):
than he gets credit for. And he's so good at
earning targets out of the backfield. I think that's where
I want to start with Washington, is which of these
guys do I think can actually be the checkdown option
for Jane Daniels, even though he doesn't check down a ton.
I think it's the most valuable thing. Because this team
also had a change of offensive coordinator, John, We're going
(04:19):
from Cliff Kingsbury to David Blow. Yeah, Blau was there
as the QB assistance coach last year. I don't really
know what that means other than, hey, you're comfortable being around.
Speaker 3 (04:31):
The practice field.
Speaker 1 (04:32):
I suppose David Blow, though we don't know what his
tendencies are going to be. We know Cliff Kingsbury was
very good at just getting a good rushing offense. But
you know, first year OC John, do you think it
makes sense like I do to say I'm gonna target
the veterans on this team because of that, because the
new guy coming in probably needs a little bit of
(04:54):
help that way.
Speaker 2 (04:55):
Yeah, I would say, especially in the running back room here.
I think with Sean White is one of the veterans here,
you know he's gonna know where to be and how
to produce, and you know the EPA and success rates
were better than I thought. He's actually getting me onto
Rashad White and maybe away from JCM, who feels like
again you mentioned White's how prolific he is in the
(05:17):
past game. Jayden Daniels is so good with RPO stuff.
This could be a match made in heaven. And yeah,
I think he's going entirely too late. Even if you're
gonna give up a little bit of maybe goal line equity,
I think that's fine at the price. So going through this,
I think I'm into Rashad White. I think maybe a
little lower on merrity. Maybe it's just a few picks
too high. And I think I like Alan. You know,
(05:39):
if you're doing these Best Bowl drafts and you're looking
to just fill in to backfill, I'm not sure i'd
be so into him in redraft. And then they also
have Jerome Ford, but I think that's a little bit
outside of our scope. Next up would be Tennessee oh
Man audible sigh. If you couldn't pick up on the
audible side, uh led with So my notes say, despite
the third lowest heavy box rate, they were still a
(06:02):
bottom five ozer line and a bottom five rushing offense
in terms of rush rate, rush per game, EPA, rush
yards per game, yards before contact per rush, rush success rate,
and explosive rush rate, so basically every single thing that
matters analytically. They did draft the fifth round guard, but
they're also ranked again to be bottom five going forward.
(06:25):
He got powered ADP seventy six. He had one top
five week. You get volume, but the efficiency not great.
He really is a pass game asset. Taji Spears pick
one sixty two, not a single top ten week. I
put same archetype as Pollared, but worse. I just think
Pollard is a much better player in both assets of
the game. And then they drafted Nicolas Singleton. He's only
(06:46):
EDP one ninety, which is a little bit high for
a third back, and a couple of thousand yard seasons
looks like some injuries and some low volume in the
last one, and he can catch the ball. I think
I'm just like so out on Tennessee until I see it.
People are excited about Ward. He could take a step forward.
They also have not done much in the way of
(07:08):
protecting him, mister Jake, And That's where I'm worried and
how defenses kind of react to that right. When you
don't present a threat to every blade of grass, defenses adjust,
and I think that kind of rolls downhill. So I'm
off the Titans. You have anything different. I mean, I've
landed on Pollard where he's fallen, just to be honest
when my roster rate comes out. But I'm not into
(07:29):
the Titans this year.
Speaker 1 (07:30):
I mean, I'm getting more interested in the Titans actually,
as I realized the pieces they added outside of that
guard and Nick Singleton, you know, they did add a
pretty solid wide receiver. A lot of folks seem to
think fourth overall in the draft by adding Carnal Tate,
they bring in Wanda Robinson. Maybe those guys can actually
(07:51):
keep the offense humming along more where all of the
guys in this backfield get more opportunities. That's the hope
at least. And of course bringing in Brian Dable change
of offensive coordinator.
Speaker 3 (08:02):
He's been good.
Speaker 1 (08:03):
You know, he has a good history of utilizing his
running backs. Probably more important, he has a good history
of emphasizing one running back, which is not common in
a lot of these backfields. We're talking about John So
that's why I'm into Tony Pollard, thinking that based on
Nicholas Singleton. You know, he broke his foot before the
senior ball. I think that's part of the reason that
(08:25):
caused him to slide down draft boards, and so Tony
Pollard should be the one who at least gets the
hot start, and you know in redraft that's more valuable
and his adp for a guy who's put up a
thousand yard rushing seasons four years in a row and
hovers around thirteen hundred scrimmage yards.
Speaker 3 (08:44):
I'm not gonna lie. I'm kind of enticed by it. John.
Speaker 1 (08:48):
I The issue is how long will Tony Pollard keep
that role? And will because I agree, I don't think
ty J. Spears is much to worry about. So I'm
just showing him away and I'm waiting on Nicholas Singleton
to get healthy. Maybe that's when he sneaks in and
then this rupts this whole thing, and then you're kind
of screwed.
Speaker 2 (09:05):
Yeah, the audio only people couldn't see, you know, luckily
for them my face and cheshire Cat's smile, because I
was a huge proponent of Tony Pollard last year. But
remember those total stats could be a little bit misleading.
By the time he was delivering. It was a little
too late for me. Although I don't want to blame
it on Pollard. I went down the Bucky Irving road
(09:26):
last year. That injury kept getting delayed and delayed and delayed.
You can't really keep fulling behind in fantasy football. Maybe
I wasn't proactive enough, but I did fall for it.
But it was funny with Pollard, who just I mean
by the time we were into week twelve, right, so
the two games after coming out of the by when
you're like, okay, maybe we'll get explosive again, he goes
ten for twenty two, then eleven for twenty. I made
(09:49):
a few catches but only total twenty five receiving yards,
and then like who would have funk it? You know,
he just went absolutely crazy. So he's also n plus one.
We talked about those lower body inches removed from Matt
tightrope surgery. Pollard was like a top ten overall pick
like two years ago. So I think I'm with you.
I think I am buying it again because of the price.
(10:10):
I also want to take a little bit of a
lowercase L on Tait And it's just like you mentioned,
the the draft capital is so high. Think about where
we were taking Marvin Harrison. Now that didn't work out,
and maybe this is an example of kind of once
bitten twice shy, But just to equate draft capital to
fantasy draft capital, you gotta think his sixty ADYP Tate
(10:34):
is a steal for we went in the draft, right.
Speaker 1 (10:37):
I'm more lukewarm on Carnal Tait as an individual fantasy
asset than most. I like him to hopefully help the
offense overall. And so if you're somebody in a two
QB league who wants to draft, you know, cam Ward
or again wants to invest in one of these running backs.
Speaker 3 (10:52):
I like Carnal Tait for that. For real life.
Speaker 1 (10:55):
I'm a little lukewarm because I actually think his ADP
is too high. Personally, I think he gets a pro
ready wide receiver. That's fine, But I don't see this
crazy high ceiling that a lot of people do.
Speaker 2 (11:06):
Interesting. Yeah, a lot of it is just based on
draft capital, and we've seen that mislead. But I'm a
price guy. I have not drafted Tait once. I tend
to be that kind of strict drafted Jake. I do
a lot of zeroing out. I zero out a lot
of teams in a lot of situations. I don't like
to put my hard earned money on players and teams
(11:28):
I don't really believe in. I like to see it.
First call me and Missouri, all right, next our third backfield,
that's buddy is Pittsburgh, right. We generally think of as
a running team. This is kind of interesting. Pittsburgh last
year bottom five in attemps per game. That's a running team.
With the Steelers or any Aaron Rodgers team. They move
like they're in molasses. However, they were top ten and
(11:49):
success rate. They do it well, low play volume in general,
like I mentioned. So it's Jalen Warren ADP seventy five.
He had three top ten weeks, one top five week,
and I have to admit this is one of the
reasons that I'm very glad to be doing the show
because when I kind of uncovered this stone, I was
really impressive what I saw from Warren. I were underrated
(12:11):
duel threat, you get efficiency, plus there was volume. I
didn't realize it, you know, kind of got out shown
by gain Well a little bit, who was fantastic. But
now he's gone. They bring in Rico Daudo, who I
put slightly better runner, but not much. He's the biggest,
so he's probably in line for all the you know,
empty calorie work, maybe a little bit more of the
(12:32):
goal one work. But man, I'm kind of getting into
Jalen Warren at ADP seventy five. What do you think
about the Steelers backfield? It's also split. They're a little
more expensive where I don't think you could take them both.
I think you have to have a stand here if
you like someone for Pittsburgh.
Speaker 1 (12:49):
Yeah, John, I think they're more expensive than the rest
of these guys. Because even though the Steelers had what
the fifth lowest team rushing attempts last year, because as
you said, they moved so slow, Warren and Gainwell were
the only backfield mates to eclip eclipse a thousand scrimmage
yards each, which is wild. That just speaks to how
(13:09):
efficient that both of them were, and frankly, how much
old man Rogers just dumped that ball off because he
was terrified if anybody on the defense looked at him
the wrong way. So I think leaning into that run
game was obviously a necessity. Maybe Michael Pittman coming on
board with this team gives him another option to feel
(13:29):
comfortable getting the ball out quick but not necessarily having
it go to one of these running backs or if
you're one of these Sikos out there, John, who've been
doing you know, a million rookie dynasty drafts. At this point,
this Eli Heidenreich name keeps popping up, and oh, we
have another next CMC, so drop the balloons. That's the
(13:51):
thousandth player that we've heard is going to be the
next CMC with zero actual basis for that other than
he caught a bunch of passes at Navy, so he's
got to be the same guy. But John, can we
at least agree Caleb Johnson is gone right, like completely
out of the realm of possibility of coming back.
Speaker 3 (14:11):
Is that fair at.
Speaker 2 (14:12):
Least for right now, especially after the draft pick here
and all the reports coming out, And I think, if anything,
you know, lessons learned because I unfortunately bought some of
that last season, and there's a place for rookies. You
just shouldn't really paying up for it, you know, because
you're oftentimes paying for the production that hasn't happened. And
(14:35):
I've joked about it before on my own show. On
this show, sometimes there's value and just knowing where to
stand right. Veterans know where to stand. They understand Cole's
and how to do audibles and be in the right
place at the right time. And we know, particularly in Pittsburgh,
there is a tax for not standing in the right place.
It's called the not standing in the right place tax.
(14:55):
And Aaron Rodgers make sure to get his pound of
black and yellow flesh every time that you betray him
on that it's the truth. Will he will grab you
by the face mask like you will hear it in
the press conferences and stuff, and then you see it
in the utilization. So I think you make a real
you make a well, you make a lot of great points,
but the usage point. If you saw me scrambling to
(15:16):
my post it note, I want to make sure that
I go back and circle all of these backfields you
mentioned Tony Pollard having a good route to singular use.
One hundred percent agreed that that's mostly gone the way
of the Dodo Jake. We're looking for two running back right.
That was the real point that I took from that
is ooh, a backfield with only two and not three
(15:39):
really boosts both of their value. Maybe I have to
pump the brakes on what I was saying about them
being a little too expensive. They are more expensive than
other tandems. But man, if you think even at a
slower rate and a lower like a smaller pie, that
they're going to be splitting all of it, which is
all the pass catching, all the garbage time, all the
end zone work. Young man, I think I'm getting sold
(16:00):
on the Pittsburgh Backs. I haven't really drafted them, but
I think I'm going through it. And again we saw
Rogers just hyper target game. Well, a little bit of
that goes to war and he's a smash. Well, let
me give you a little bit more.
Speaker 1 (16:13):
Just onto the fire here real quick, John, because I'm
gonna get you drafting both of these guys.
Speaker 3 (16:17):
So many times by the end of this offseason.
Speaker 1 (16:19):
The Steelers also have i would say, arguably the easiest
first half schedule of any team in the NFL. In
their first eight weeks, they're only going against one team
with a winning percentage in twenty twenty five, and that's
New England. The rest of these seven teams collected having
a total win loss record last year of forty six
(16:40):
wins and seventy three losses. Obviously, things change. We can't
just assume it's going to be the same year year
over year. But if you're looking at a team that's
gonna have positive game scripts, which we often need for
running backs, especially split backfield, to be.
Speaker 3 (16:55):
Successful, then I think this is the one to go with.
Speaker 1 (16:58):
Don And both have three down potential, so I think
both can handle the workload. Doudo does have the connection
with Mike McCarthy coming in from their year really or
year and a half, I guess in Dallas. So if
I had to choose, when, I'm going Dado, but I'll
take both.
Speaker 2 (17:13):
Wow, another awesome point. You had me scrambling to my
post it notes again about early scheduling, dude, it matters.
I have ignored it too often in redraft, where you
want to get out to a good start, they might
be injuries you don't plan for Week fifteen. In redraft,
get out to a good start. Those players have more
value out of the box. I think that was really great.
(17:36):
Sorry to rush on now, and I'm glad we got
that in. All right, So that's three of the six teams.
Let's take about at a quick breather, let's circle back.
I have another three teams that I really want to
get into. I think we're making good pace and we're
going to get through everything today. All right, Jake, let's
start a page into the second half here. Next up,
it's the Patriots, now a team that people are really
(17:57):
excited about, and another team right with that kind of
two had a backfield. They were sixth in rush yarts
per game, but eleventh in running back rush arts for him,
of course, Drake may taking that up. I wanted to
look at the goal to go carries. Henderson had sixteen
led the way, Mandre fifteen May thirteen, but Romandre did
miss three games in the middle of the season. They
faced the second heaviest, heaviest, highest box rate, and then
(18:20):
you know it's I just wrote the word frustrating in
the biggest letters that I could, where it didn't go
across the line. You know. The biggest surprise to me
was that in the games together, Romandre actually out snapped
Trevion when the Patriots were tied or trailing. They had
the same amount of targets, but Mandre actually had one
hundred more receiving yards. The reason I mentioned that is
(18:42):
I think I kind of been these players as thunder
and lightning. Right, It's very easy for us to do
that there's a bigger back that rungs and a more
scatty back that catches. That's not always the case for
Mare was a really good runner. He was also pretty
darn good in the past game man, their ADPs are
fifty one Henderson seventy five Madre who I think maybe
(19:05):
those should be flipped, And that, again is not a
very popular opinion. I was not drafting Henderson last year
because I was worried. We did see the potential in
those games about Stevenson, so that to say, it's still
it's a lot of gray matter going on here. What
do you think about the pet about the Patriots backs.
Speaker 3 (19:21):
Yeah, John, I don't.
Speaker 1 (19:22):
I don't know why didn't Henderson's ADP drop like at
all from last year. It feels like this is right
around where folks were drafting him last year. And I
understand the upside is very enticing. I get it, but
I just would have assumed he would have dropped down
because of the disappointment he gave everybody last year. And
I guess folks are looking at the end of year
(19:43):
stat totals, which I'm victim of doing sometimes myself. But
if you look at the time where Henderson actually started
to shine. It wasn't until week nine of last year,
and that's when Ramondra Stevenson got injured, as you said.
And when Stevenson got healthy again, then he was again
playing a lot more snaps than Henderson was because he's
a better pass blocker and a better pass catcher even
(20:05):
than Henderson was. I think the assumption was Henderson will
grow into this role as a receiving back, and he might.
He might, but Ramondre Stevenson looked better than he did.
And I just want to focus on the snap counts
from week thirteen on because that's when Ramondre came back
from his injury and was basically healthy. And you talked
about the snap counts. But week thirteen on, including the
(20:28):
actual NFL playoffs, Remondre Stevenson three hundred and eighty snaps
Traveon Henderson two hundred and twelve snaps. That's a wild
difference at the tail end of the season. To still
have a guy like that have such high ADP and
to have the ADPs not flipped like you said, so,
I don't know. You give me Ramondre Stevenson a few
(20:49):
rounds later if eventually things shift, I'll adapt, I'll move,
i'll trade, I'll drop him to waivers, whatever. But I'm
not going to start with Henderson on thessumption that he's
just gonna come out of the box looking great.
Speaker 2 (21:03):
There's no reason to think that. I mean, and the
playoff touchcounts were very heavily in favor of Stevenson thirteen
to ten against the Chargers, twenty to thirteen Houston, twenty
five to three at Denver. That's a blowout, and then
(21:25):
twelve nine Seattle, Like there wasn't a single time where
they said when the chips are down, Henderson is the guy.
He's just And it might be and Henderson drifters, might
get lucky. Maybe Stevenson, you know, hits the lottery and
goes into that mindful this retreat I'm always talking about. Maybe,
and then there's a case that Trevion could legit be
the RB one or among at least the top five
(21:47):
running backs. But until then, I think you're overpaying. And Stevenson,
to me at least is the most obvious smash zero
RP pick ever, right because generally when I go zero RB,
I'm asking myself, Jay, are there any points in Week one?
Are there anything? Because where I've made the mistake is
having the pendulum swing too far leave myself out in
(22:09):
the cold in the early weeks. Right, So would you
buy that like Rashad White and Ramandre Stevenson are going
to score points week one? Yes or no?
Speaker 1 (22:18):
I say yes, and I say definitively yes, and so
I think yeah, redraft and by the way, and I
will say even dynasty value for Trey Van Henderson way
too inflated. That's another one that took zero hit based
off of a performance last year. And I don't get
it in either format.
Speaker 2 (22:34):
Yeah, I don't. Sometimes this is really interesting when we
talk about market machinations and going against the trend and
wisdom of the crowd, sometimes you have to be willing
to say, like no, and you know, again, we're not
taking a player in the three hundred snowes I've heard of.
We're talking about an accomplished like back with success on
a winning team that's healthy and leading the way. I
(22:56):
don't know, it's weird. I asked her if they could
both score week one. I should have asked, can lead
the running back room in Fantasy points Week one? And
again the answer Jeffs. Next team up, Carolina Panthers. Okay,
so they were top twelve in rush rate, but bottom
ten in explosive rush rate. They're also thirtieth in rushing touchdowns.
You got Twoba Harbard his back ADP seventy three. He
had three top ten weeks, not a single top five week.
(23:18):
There's a question about ceiling here. We know what happened
when he got replaced by Rico Dawdel. I have not
been drafting Harvard at all. His ADP is now converging
with backup Jonathan Brooks. I haven't listed at one five,
but I've been in these draft room, Jake. They're getting
closer to about the low nineties. They're both they're going
next to each other in the low nineties. So ADP,
(23:41):
let me get closer to the season. We'll be using
tighter windows for larger samples. But John Brooks, I mean,
he had a really great twenty twenty three, but last
I checked, it's twenty twenty six. We haven't seen much
from him. They are over the moon about this guy. Though.
There was not a single report out of that teams
camp that does not include Brooks and how he looks
(24:03):
like he could be everything. So again, to me, if
you're playing for two types of ceiling in zero RB
Stevenson and White being that more vanilla lower higher floor,
lower ceiling Brooks. If this works out right, he could
be the RB one by week three, maybe sooner if
he outperforms him. In camp. We saw the Panthers be
willing to go away from Hubbard. So what do you
(24:23):
think about the Brooks room. You started nudging me into Brooks,
and the more I've looked, the more I've liked. Again,
the price is getting high. So I saw you nodding,
where's the cutoff for Brooks? Make sure you include that, please.
Speaker 1 (24:35):
Yeah, the cutoff if Brooks starts going, you know, into
this dead zone running back area, which to me starts
at around round six round seven, when he starts creeping
up at around six in round seven, as we get
more and more positive reports, I'm assuming that'll happen. I
don't know for sure. Then I'm gonna be out just
because we're still talking about a guy who's had two
(24:55):
ACL tears, you know, in the last two years to
the same AC, and I know he's gotten some distance
from the injury, and I'm excited to see what his
upside can look like but it's store up to bank
on something like that right now. But I do want
to try to follow the money on this, John, because
that's in these dicey backfields where you're just trying to
(25:15):
figure out who could be the real lead back. I
was working my way through this, and so the Panthers
signed Toba Hubbard to a four year extension thirty three million,
a few months only after spending their second round pick
on Brooks, and Brooks was coming into the season injured.
Obviously he was still recovering from that first ACL injury,
(25:36):
but Hubbard gave him a ton of or Hubbard got
a ton of money before Brooks tore the ACL a
second time, so they were already The Panther is being like,
we want Hubbard to be our guy, but I don't
know that it matters anymore, John, because a year prior
to that, they gave Miles Sanders.
Speaker 3 (25:54):
Remember that guy. They gave Miles Sanders.
Speaker 1 (25:56):
Almost an equivalent contract, And then we're just like, no,
it's through this guy.
Speaker 3 (26:00):
We're moving on.
Speaker 1 (26:01):
He says he's terrible. We're turning the backfield over to Hubbard.
So if Brooks is really as good as they're saying,
and they spent that second round pick on him, he
could absolutely leap frog Hubbard. And he does have a
higher ceiling, a much lower floor, but a way higher ceiling.
Like you said, So, I'm kind of willing to absorb
the risk here.
Speaker 2 (26:22):
Yep, one hundred percent love it, especially in redraft where
the floor is zero. Okay, snip snip, ceil aer pal.
You know, thanks for playing where again best ball, and
these year long commitments. It's a little harder to pay
the premium without at least the information that we want. Now,
keep in mind that I'm kind of setting you up here, Jay.
If you had the guess of the one hundred and
(26:43):
thirty four rush attempts that Chew Bahabber had in twenty
twenty five, do you know exactly how many went from
more than twenty yards?
Speaker 3 (26:51):
Ooh, more than twenty It's.
Speaker 2 (26:54):
How many twenty yard rushing a Bobber had in twenty
twenty five.
Speaker 3 (26:57):
I'll give him one just to be nice.
Speaker 2 (26:59):
Yeah, the zero. And you know there's a lack of
explosivity here, right, there's a lack of explosivity. In fact,
he only didn't stay away from the goose egg and
explosive rush rate. I think explosive rush rate might be thirteen,
so he had won between thirteen and twenty. But that's it.
So he's gonna like writs that three yards and a
(27:21):
cloud of dust thing because the success rate is actually
pretty good, right, forty eight percent success rate. You're gonna
take that and maybe the most impressive number. And this
is why they like him so much. Jake, is I
like to account for negative or zero? I guess like not,
so let's call it non positive. A tenth rate records
of zero is not great either. Some people just do losses,
(27:43):
but I don't think that's good either. And his was
down at just twelve percent. That is fantastic. There are
running backs that operate full workloads up and around or
above twenty, which is the truth. So he doesn't get
stopped for nothing, but he's not gonna get you everything.
And I think the more we kind of talk through
(28:04):
this analytically, you see why he's gotten replaced without being removed.
Does that make sense? Right? He got replaced, There areb
one kind of got replaced, but he didn't get removed
because his role is still extremely valuable. He's not gonna
give it up. He's not gonna put on the floor.
He's not gonna burn you. He's not gonna do happy
feet in the backfield and lose your six yards. He
(28:24):
doesn't do that. And those are like sacks, which we
all know kill drive. So I'd like Hubbard as a
real football player. I think I'm off him completely now
as a fantasy asset. Right, he kind of had that chance,
didn't run away with it. Man, This has been really
good episode. When I have quick notes, I keep myself
from tangenting too much. Last, but not least, of course,
(28:46):
Denver Broncos high expectations, bottom twelve rush rate, but also
bottom twelve in EPA per attempt. They were thirty first
in yards after contact per rush. Not great. You've got RJ.
Harvey to choose from. ADP eighty seven, also very late
for an RB one depending he had three top ten weeks,
two top five, so there is some ceiling because of
(29:07):
the rushing floor. JK. Dobbins ADP. One hundred, no top ten. Again,
it's all kind of rushing impact. This when I put
that phrase I mentioned before thunder and lightening, because this
really is the closest we have to it. Dobbins is
all the important ground yards and if they're down, he's
kind of out and they go right to Harvey. So
(29:28):
you have like weekly floors where you can get games
scripted out. They both seem startworthy on a per week basis,
though the Broncos have been known to go to RB three,
four and five sometimes. I've been finding myself kind of
out though Harvey's been one of the foilers Jake, and
when I've seen him in the triple digit ADP, I've
(29:50):
seen him at pick one hundred, then I'm jumping on board.
Dobbin's not so much because I like my running backs
to catch. What do you think about the Broncos tailbacks?
Speaker 1 (29:58):
Yeah, Harvey had the kind of season fall that I
expected from Trayvon Henderson last year, even though Harvey ended
on a much better note. Granted that was because JK.
Dobbins got injured and Harvey came in and he looked solid.
But I'll be honest, John, I hate this backfield. I
hate it with a burning, white hot passion because here's
the thing.
Speaker 3 (30:18):
I know that JK.
Speaker 1 (30:19):
Dobbins is going to lead this backfield and touches until
he gets hurt. But I don't know when that's gonna be,
and I'm not sure that I even care because, as
you said, Dobbins doesn't catch passes. Last year, ten games
he had eleven catches. He had more games with negative
receiving yards than games with double digit receiving yards.
Speaker 3 (30:38):
So you're just.
Speaker 1 (30:38):
Banking on touchdowns with him and Jonah Coleman. The rookie
comes in, who I've started to grow to like a lot,
especially in Dynasty. He's a legitimate three down running back,
so I think he's more competition for Dobbins straight up
than Harvey or Julia McLoughlin were last year. So I
think the bull case for any of these eyes and
(31:00):
it's picked your your poison. But the ball case is
the Broncos take a step forward as a scoring offense.
You know, they bring in Jalen Waddle, bow Knicks just
continues to improve.
Speaker 3 (31:10):
All that's great.
Speaker 1 (31:12):
We expect them to throw less because they threw a
ton last year, six hundred plus passes from bow Knicks.
You know bo Nix's late season ankle injury. Maybe he
doesn't take off and run himself so much and he
gives that to the actual running backs on the field.
Speaker 3 (31:26):
But I don't know.
Speaker 1 (31:27):
It just feels like even when Dobbins was healthy last year,
he was the RB twenty four in points per game.
That's fine, that's where you're drafting him. I'm not saying
there's anything wrong with that, but I don't know that
we're getting ten games, John. What if we get five
games of JK Dobbins as sort of this fringe RB two.
Speaker 3 (31:44):
I don't know.
Speaker 1 (31:45):
I kind of just don't even want to deal with it.
I don't think Harvey did anything to usurp Dobbins this year,
so I'm not banking on him. And yeah, Jonah Coleman
is somebody I'll probably just look at for a midseason
waiver pickup, assuming that JK.
Speaker 3 (31:59):
Dobbins gets hurt.
Speaker 2 (32:00):
Yeah, I'm with you. Coleman passes a lot of the
sniff tests usage and abilities and both sides of the game.
But it's always gonna be difficult because you know, last
year we saw it. You mentioned Julia McLaughlin, right, he
had at least four carries in eight of their last
nine games. Those are touches we want. And that as
(32:22):
if like that wasn't bad enough, you know, Tyler Batty
made at least one grab in more games than not,
and it doesn't sound like a lot, but when a
split backfield is sacrificing seven, eight, nine RB touches, that's
a bunch of snaps and it just hurts everybody across
the board. I guess I'm still taking Harvey as like
(32:45):
a flex pick, but I'm with you. I'd say you
talked me off and I was already kind of heading
towards the ledge. I'm gonna stick with my If Harvey
post one hundred, then press yes button. But other than that,
I'm really out. Like you mentioned, not only the Broncos
really creative with usage. They brought in pieces which is
going to shake up that etches ketch a gun Jake.
(33:05):
That was really awesome and we got through all six teams.
Like you said, you believed in us, and you were right.
So from John mcgay's and mister Jake Shrobridge, thank you
everybody for listening to Fantasy Football Weekly. Hit us up
on social media if you have any questions, and everyone
enjoy the weekend, take care of
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