July 24, 2026 • 34 mins
Jake and John are back this week to do a deep dive into players they have little to no interest in drafting this season! The guys tell you why they have no shares of a pair of top 10 running backs, debate a couple of tailbacks who used to be teammates in Detroit and give you a rundown of a group of players you should steer clear from! That and much more on a late July edition as camps start to open around the league!
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Listen
Watch
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
Time now for Fantasy Football Weekly from iHeartRadio, your weekly
source for the nation's best fantasy speculation and advice. What's
up and welcome back another four season edition of Fantasy
Football Weekly and your hopes and print. John mcgaza, and
my friend and your colors, mister Jake Trobridge. Jake, another
(00:24):
week that you pulled me away from drafting for half
an hour. This better be worth it. I have a feeling.
What it's good. You've got some good stuff on deck. Hey,
doing my man.
Speaker 2 (00:31):
I'm so sorry to have done that to you so
many times. Now I'm doing I'm doing phenomenal. And you
know why because it's officially fantasy football season for me now, John.
It doesn't really start for me until I've drafted in
Scott Fish Bowl. And I've done that this past weekend.
So it's feeling good.
Speaker 1 (00:53):
Well, that's a really great segue to the first thing.
In case anyone's wondering. It's an industry league set up
by Scott Fish who does it just so much great
work that we want to shout him out. Now. I
don't play in the tournament because I don't really have
the bandwidth for the wild scoring. We're gonna go over
in just one second. But I do always make sure
to donate, and you can get that at Fantasy Cares
(01:13):
or one word on social media just search Scott Fish
and I kind of give, you know more keeping piles
of respect and praise on someone. You know. I have
a soft spot for Christmas and giving family stuff myself,
but he really goes out there and puts a ton
ton metric ton of time and effort to this stuff. So, Jake,
(01:33):
I saw the scoring board, and I'll be honest, it
made my eyes cross at first, just really quick six
points for a touchdown, two points for conversion, and that's
where it kind of goes off the rails. It's half
point PPR half point for a first down, which is
kind of cool, but then tight ends just bonuses through
the roof. They get an extra full point perception, extra
(01:55):
full point for first down. Then there's ten point bonuses
for all the big games. Three hundred four, one hundred
yards passing but also explosive please forty yards passing rushing
and twenty yard receiving. You also don't need a quarterback
in this one, or any position in particular, so just
tell us how you attack this one. My first question was,
(02:15):
did you draft a lot of tight ends?
Speaker 2 (02:18):
You know, I might have drafted a few tight ends
this time around. What is really nice about this this
year is that you don't have to have a specific
set position at all. You can draft literally whoever you want.
And so I started, John, I looked at those big
play bonuses, and I got really enticed by the tight ends,
(02:41):
because yeah, you're getting three times to scoring for every
catch and every first down. So I was drafted out
of the four spot, and I felt very pleased when
brock Bauers was sitting there. Felt like a very reasonable pick. John.
Would you would you agree that coming out of the gates,
that's a nice start.
Speaker 1 (02:56):
Mike gut reaction was to be shocked at hours dropped
to four. There's a guy who could contend for the
target lead. And if you're gonna multiply those receptions by three,
that's massive pust. We know he's got twenty yard catches
in the bag. Also, So I would imagine that you
set a pace and all the other really good tight
(03:18):
ends went right after you. I mean, you weren't able
to stack any other really good tight ends, weren't you.
Speaker 2 (03:24):
Oh you would think so you would think all these
tight ends would fly off the board. But Trey McBride
went a few picks later. But I'm sitting on the
clock in the second round and Colston Loveland's still there. Yes,
so I simply had to smash the button on Colston
Loveland and I thought, you know, starting with two tight ends,
I got some giggles through the rooms. It's a unique start.
(03:47):
I come back in the third round. Guess who's still there?
John Tyler Warren, who I presume to be the leading
pass catcher on.
Speaker 1 (03:54):
The All bits aside, all bits aside, because I knew
that you took three tight ends out of the box.
I'm still legitimately shocked at a guy like Warren again
with all the target boyds, who's used in so many
creative ways. Who can be a volume guy, get tons
of first downs and explosive please fell so deep man,
(04:15):
I would have to think. You gotta wait with fantasy
murder here, all right, just take you through it, because
we do what to get into our zero share players. Yes,
but just wrap us up. How far into the draft
are you? How many tight ends did you go? And
who ended up on the squad.
Speaker 2 (04:29):
Yeah, let me cut through the bit here, but I
will tell you right now that I am currently Because
you start at the live draft, you draft ten rounds,
and then it continues as a slow draft. So I'm
still drafting technically. I've completed through round fifteen, and John,
I have literally nothing but tight ends on this roster.
I have fifteen tight ends and nothing else. Because it
(04:51):
started as a good strategy and then it turned into
a little bit of a bit, a comedy bit at
the live draft, and then it transitioned into an act
of charity because I started to say to folks, if
you want to keep this alive, you know, if you
want to see nothing but tight ends down this board,
chip in a few bucks to Fantasy Cares, show me
(05:12):
the receipt, and I'll keep drafting them. So they kept
doing that all day, so I kept drafting them, and
it looks like at this point, I'm gonna complete the run.
I'm gonna have twenty of these things when it's all
said and done.
Speaker 1 (05:23):
I love that you'll also be the busiest GM week zero.
It's kind of funny, though, what starts as a bit
may end up with a trophy. I'm dead serious. I
have to go get my hands on this full draft board.
Now I haven't done all of the math right now,
which just back at the napkin bud when you're tripling
up receptions. I'm sorry with first down bonuses. Man, I
(05:45):
can't believe that sounds like so much fun all right
now today kind of meat and potatoes of today. We've
done a little too much niceties, right, we gotta get
rid of that. Let's rub some feathers. Today. We're gonna
do zero share players. Now, I won't bury the lead.
I'm a zero out kind of guy. There are lots
of people that talk about building portfolios. Not my style.
(06:09):
There are players that I really am very binary on
and I go yes and I go no, and I
will handbuild literally several hundred drafts. I already have probably
close to two hundred. And there's a lot of players
I'm zero shared on and I'm gonna stay that way.
So we're gonna focus on a pair from each of us.
I guess you could start this one off because you
(06:31):
have the player that's the highest and man first round.
So it's funny because it sounds like a popular I'm
not fading him kind of guy. When you have an
EDP of six, someone's drafting Christian McCaffrey. Talk to us
about why you're off, you know, one of the best
players of this generation.
Speaker 2 (06:47):
Yeah, a lot of When you phrase it that way,
John's really hard to come back from. But he truly
is one of the best running backs of this generation.
I understand the argument for drafting him. Obviously, last year,
if you avoided him because of the off season injury
stuff that was happening, you felt very foolish watching him
finish as the overall RB one, And since twenty nineteen,
(07:12):
if Christian McCaffrey has played a full season, Christian McCaffrey
has finished as the overall RB one or at least
very close to it. But the problem is, in his
last six seasons, you've only gotten that healthy CMC half
of the time. Now he's sitting there at thirty years old,
and he's sixth off the board. It's RB three. It's
(07:34):
just hard for me to look at what he did
last year and be willing to try to copy and
paste that. You don't have to do that exactly right,
because he's not being taken first overall or even the
first running back, but it still feels like you're drafting
him very close to his ceiling, and I ask myself
what the most likely outcome is with this guy. Is
it that he repeats what he did last year, or
(07:56):
is it that he gets injured or falls off in
some capacity because he had everything going right for him
when the chips actually fell last year. It didn't look
that way at the start, John, but the forty nine
ers ended up unexpectedly without Brandon Ayuk for the entire season,
without Rock Purty for half the season, without Ricky Parsol
(08:17):
for half the season. George Kill of course missed his
requisite amount of time six games he ended up out for.
And I don't think that's a coincidence then that CMC
got a career high in carries and a career high
in total touches four hundred plus total touches for a
guy who's thirty years old. John, It's it's concerning. I
(08:37):
think I've maybe said this stat on the show before,
but I just want to put it out there one
more time because I keep coming back to it. I
don't into the vaults here, John, going back to twenty twenty,
there's been six times we're running back at least twenty
five years old, trying to filter out the super young guys,
not just at least three hundred and fifty touches and
five out of six times that running back basic traded
(09:00):
off the face of the year at the following season.
Derek Henry is the only guy who managed to avoid
that once. So it's a tough bet.
Speaker 1 (09:08):
Yeah, Henry really is like the living exception. I'm probably
gonna make the mistake of not being on him again
this year. Man, the CMC stuff really is kind of scary.
You mentioned a lot of the good meta points, right,
there's an efficiency decline generally over three hundred and fifty touches. Now,
he did have nine top five finishes last year. Oh
MACARRONI man, was he great? But it was all pass catching.
(09:31):
Like you mentioned, they've gone and addressed a lot of that.
You bring in Mike Evans and always that Shanahan X
spot has been one of the really desired you know,
retail right, location, location, location, one of the places you
want to be in fantasy football. You know me, I'm
not try of the spreadsheets. I wanted to see how
bad the rushing stuff was for CMC checked this out
(09:52):
of thirty three running backs last year, with at least
one hundred and fifty rushes, so thirty three running backs,
twenty ninth. In yard per rush, it was below four
twenty eighth yards after contact per rush, right around two
and three quarters, twenty third in EPA per rush, it
was negative, so he wasn't even adding positive value. He
(10:13):
was twenty second in success rate at forty two percent,
twenty second in explosive rush rate at six and a half,
and twenty first in that stat that I talk about
all the time with running backs zero or less, right,
I kind of call them negative. Zero is not necessarily negative,
but you know, negative rush attempts, it's not a positive rush.
Atemp Nearly nineteen percent of his attempts went for either
zero or negative yards. I don't know how many. He's
(10:38):
not the best running back right when we think of
running back in totality. Yes, he's still uber talented and
like I said, borderline, if not objectively generational. Right now,
stepping off the bus, I'm not so sure. One other
thing that we haven't mentioned, and I know because I've
stepped on that rake and had it smacked me over
and over. Like the side show, Bob's kind of bit
(11:01):
was the running backs behind him are actually healthy. This
time around, it was the big Isaac Grendo guy wompah,
you know, sand trombone. But this year. Last year they
drafted Caitlin Black out of Indiana third round. Year before
Jordan James out of Oregon fifth round. The drum beats
are not crazy for the one, but they have talked
(11:21):
them up and being competent, and there is at least
a non zero chance that one or both of those
young men get a chance for some of the low
calorie work might even be the work around the end
zone if it's short yardage, plenty of red flags here,
anything else in McCaffrey before we move on, I mean,
I think he's gonna be good. I think we both
(11:41):
think he's gonna score fantasy points. But at the number six,
you're you would be pretty sure this guy's a chance
to one finish the season and also finished the season
as a one oh one. I've got major concerns for
both of those.
Speaker 2 (11:53):
Yeah, that's my takeaway. That's the thing. It's not that
I don't want people to be like, Wow, Jake is
just really you know, trying to upset Christian McCaffrey out here,
trying to talk bad about him. Not at all, love you, CMC,
but it's just that type of risk in the first
six picks isn't something I'm prepared to do. I'll take
(12:14):
big risks later in drafts, but not that early in
the first round.
Speaker 1 (12:18):
Yeah, it's funny. That's kind of feedback I get all
the time for my own writing and streams where I'm
the first person to say I do not believe in
injury optimism. I don't like to pay for things we've
never seen before. Yeah, until the later rounds dot dot
in the parentheses after that is, until it doesn't cost
me anything, and the risk reward ratio we should be
prioritizing the entire time goes in my fever. Yeah, I'll
(12:42):
take injury optimism when it doesn't cost me anything. I
don't want it in the first round. I mean, you're
putting him next to a guy like Ashton Genty, who
we've been talking about all summer. So far, he's moved
from the front of the second into the middle of
the first. I've had him from in front of CMC
the entire time. High stakes leagues are reflecting that Genti's
(13:02):
inside the top eight, inside the top six, right next
to or in front of CMC. So not to necessarily
appeal to authority or look to confirm my priors, but
the market is agreeing with us. I'm with you. How
about where would you take CMC if he gets into
the second round, if he makes it to the turn,
are you taking him at thirteen?
Speaker 2 (13:20):
Absolutely? Okay, it's completely a matter of him. Honestly, if
I'm sitting there at I don't know the one eleven
and he's on the board and I have that short turn,
it's a lot easier to do that game because you're
not waiting so long to come back and playing the
guests and game of who's going to be there for
you in the second round quite as much.
Speaker 1 (13:37):
Yeah, I'm glad that I'm gonna you say that because
it's fair, but also it again reflects our true perspective.
You don't think he's bad at football, but there are
real opportunity costs going on here, all right. The next
player was one of my zero fay guys, not as
high as yours, but still inside the top thirty five picks.
Also another running back, Karen Williams of the Rams, And
(13:59):
I'm definitely getting some eye rolls already, and some you
know those teeth like sucking things on my daughter does up.
You know, I got it. But down the stretch we
saw that workload really start to converge. After Week eleven,
Kyroen only had two top eight finishes and I mentioned
eight because he never got above that, and Koram in
(14:19):
that same span was the overall RB three Week fourteen,
Kyen played that week twelve, one, twenty eight and two
and he caught a ball for three yards, So there
is some ceiling even when they were both on the field.
Then when you start to zoom in a little bit more,
it really gets worse for Kien. Again that same time frame,
he did out touch Korum sixteen to ten and a half.
(14:40):
But Korm was way better across the board, and we
can even look at the year to date stats. Last year,
Korm was better in terms of Fantasy points per snap.
He was better in yards per attempt, yards before contact
per rush, EPA per rush, and explosive rush rate and
a lot of these. The EPA and explosive rush rate
is nearly double, if not more than Kiren. And of
(15:01):
course I always add the layer of heavy or eight
man boxes. Korm faced more heavy boxes fifty two to
forty six, So it's not even like Kiren the banger
was easier to perceive as a run play, so they
were up on him. No, that wasn't the case. Korm
kind of had the tougher sledding and was better and
(15:22):
then the piece the resistance in that. You know, I'm
saying week eleven because that was really when the convergence happened.
How about goal line rushes, which I've defined as inside
the five yard line. Korm had ten to Karen Williams eight,
So this is not down the stretch. This was not
really Kiren's backfield anymore. Because if I'm gonna get the
(15:43):
majority of the goal line touches with what's like a
seventy pick ADP discount, maybe sixty pick ad B discount,
Korm has been one of the dead zone RB guys.
I like when I'm passing off Kiren. This is one
of these anti takes that we've been talking about. If
if you don't like Kien, you should be drafting Korum.
I've been trying to really address up my own fantasy game.
(16:05):
What do you think about Kien Williams or are you
even drafting him at all?
Speaker 2 (16:08):
I actually have been drafting a little bit of Kien Williams,
and you certainly make a lot of valid points in
terms of what his efficiency is and what his sort
of play by play looks like. I think what's hard
is when you step back and you just see in
totality that it seems like all Kien Williams does is
finish as a top ten running back despite all of
(16:30):
these struggles, and so it feels like year after year
you go, ugh, the logical case doesn't support what he
ends up becoming by the end of the season. And
I don't know if it's simply a factor of that offense,
if it's just something where maybe, yes, Blake Korum is
this efficient, or it seems to be much better than
(16:53):
Kyraen Williams because he's not getting quite as much work overall.
Sometimes that even just happens that there are guys who
have been known throughout their NFL careers as running backs,
you are really great if you get one hundred to
one hundred and fifty touches. If you start getting more
than that, then it starts to look a little bit shoddy.
I don't know that that's the case with Blake Koram.
(17:14):
I think it's probably just folks going well, Korum was
there last year and things still worked out for Kyon Williams,
so I'm gonna go ahead and invest. I don't hate it.
I don't love it either with Kien.
Speaker 1 (17:26):
Yeah, I conveniently left out all the counterpoints to my
own argument, which is, you know, the Rams are an
excellent offense that could support two running backs, and I
believe that. So it's similar to the CMC thing. We're
not trying to throw dirt on these guys Fantasy Grave
so much as it's really a price thing. For Kiron,
I'd like to see him around later. And again, I
(17:48):
think the Korum price is really good. I think they
should be a little bit closer together, and we've seen
that years past in the Steelers backfield and the Vikings
backfield last year, and it just hasn't been There's been
this disparity. So I'm going with the cheaper and kind
of younger option. But I fully understand if the Rams
are gonna produce at the same level. Right number one
(18:08):
in points per game, number one in yards per game,
number one in success rate, number one in first downs
per drive, number one in points per drives, and they're
objectively awesome. So yeah, there's no room for both to produce.
But I have found last thing, and maybe you could
add on this before we take a quick break. Is
the way I'm perceiving the Kiren price is there's been
(18:29):
this prevalence of pushing running backs to the four, which
I'm agreeing with. I think you need to do that,
But I think he's getting sucked into his tailwind right
the current. I'm coming from Virginia Beach. You can tell
that the current is kind of pulling him out where
I don't want where I don't quite feel the same
about Kiren. Opposed, Let's say a brite Hole is going
(18:50):
right next to him, or I think Hole might be
a better back, better in the past game that has
a greater share. I kin I could be wrong because
the offense is not nearly as good. So how are
you dealing with like those back end RB ones? Justin?
Is your like a metadraft plan type of Thingy's.
Speaker 2 (19:07):
This prevalence of gravitating towards anybody with a workhorse sensibility.
At this point, Iron Williams the feels to have the
workhorse sensibility, And you mentioned Brice Hall, who certainly Yeah,
it's like, you know, all due respect to the backups there,
(19:27):
Isaiah Davis, sure, Braylan Allen Wisconsin Alum, I have to
appreciate him, but you just go, well, Brice Hall is
getting all the work and it doesn't even matter necessarily
if he is a better individual running back. It's just
a matter of gauging the offenses times workload. It feels
like that's the equation right now. That's pumping all these
(19:48):
guys up into the same bubble. Javonte Williams, I think,
is probably categorically in that same boat, even though I
would say I would much rather have both Breisce Hall
and Kyen Williams than Javante Williams. It's kind of a
flattening I think of this group, probably just because everybody's
so desperate to get running backs.
Speaker 1 (20:07):
John, Yeah, I love that, and I really do agree,
which is part of why I'm trying to get in earlier.
Right before the wave kind of brings me out. That
was really well put. I wish I wish I'd put
it that way, all right, So before we move on,
it's a pretty good segue also into the second half.
The whistle is about to blow on our first half,
and it's a running back that I defaulted to. But
(20:29):
holding my nose and it's one of yours. Zero Fay
guys are gonna get to after this quick break. All right,
Jaked marching band is wrapping up, and we're gonna go
to that running back that I was alluding to that
I've been pulling the trigger on, not with confidence, but
also because I don't want to end up empty handed.
(20:52):
And it's David Montgomery with Houston. He's backed up but
been efficient. But it was a great team, right, a
team that could suppor guys. He's going to a team
that probably can't. But now he's the lead role ADP.
Fifty four. It feels fairly priced. Again. Whenever I take him,
I am almost literally holding my nose. Talk to us
about David Montgomery. You might push me right into the
(21:14):
zero cliff myself. Here.
Speaker 2 (21:16):
We'll see sometime some days, John, I look at David
Montgomery and go, I get it. Sure again, it's a
workload thing, and he's going much later that group that
we talked about just very recently. Kyron Williams, Breese Hall,
Javonte Williams. If you're just looking at the workload argument,
he fits in there, probably, But I think David Montgomery
(21:38):
is the trappiest trap that's ever trapped in fantasy football.
Right now. You are looking at that ADP fifty four
that puts him in that middle of the fifth round.
Every year, there's this group of running backs kind of
talk similar to what we were talking about earlier, where
they're getting pumped up the board and no one really
necessarily wants to draft them, but you kind of feel
(21:59):
like you have to because the position's really starting to
thin out. You know, this is the dead zone of
running backs. Fifth round should not be that, and yet
it feels like with David Montgomery there, that's exactly what
it is. This David Montgomery is that little kid from
the sixth sense's favorite running back, I have to imagine
because he sees dead zone running backs and he does
(22:20):
see David Montgomery sitting there as sort of the pack leader.
And I just don't get the upside argument. I guess
we're looking at David Montgomery going from a top four
scoring offense in Detroit to a middle of the pack
scoring offense in Houston. He's going from a very respectable
offensive line to what was one of the worst offensive
(22:42):
lines last year. Maybe it improves, maybe, but it's still
pretty unlikely to be as good as what he had.
And I also think that people are just under selling
what he Mark's potential in this backfield. I see him
going just desperately late into drafts. Nearing the last round
(23:02):
of drafts is like this cast off. And I understand
that Woody marks last year he was not a good
workhorse running back. He wasn't when he had to unexpectedly
fill in first for Joe Mixon, whose mysterious foot injury
kept him out all year. Houston clearly thought they were
gonna have him, they didn't, and then they bring in
Nick Chubb. Nick Chubb is running in sand basically the
(23:25):
whole time. So Woody Marx has to take on a
much bigger role than I think they wanted him to.
Because as a pure pass catcher, John Marx was the
best in his rookie class by a long shot, and
I think he still has that potential. We didn't get
to see much of it last year, which was so
flabbergasting because he was really great as a pass catcher.
(23:47):
I don't know how if you're the Texans, you see
what he did early in the season as that third
third down back eye and you just back away from it.
I mean, he was getting you know, ten yards per
target at a point in last season, and so I
think Montgomery is this guy. He looks good. We still
have visions of him in Detroit like he's gonna magically
(24:08):
get double digit touchdowns again. And I think that's what
you need if he's anything more than a decent flex play.
But I don't see it, John, Like I was looking
at guys going right after him. You tell me, I
guess who is more interesting to you in this range here,
So we've got Montgomery and right near him is DeAndre Swift.
(24:28):
Do you see a big gap there in value?
Speaker 1 (24:32):
I mean, if you really want to be attached to
the Chicago touchdowns in that case, if you could, I've
even kind of, I don't know, I've been dropping back
for guys like Rashaw White or even Tony Pollard. That
a lot of the arguments feel similar, and I keep
asking myself why I'm paying it, and you nailed all
of it. Radio listeners can't see just the really uncomfortable
(24:56):
a couple of faces I was making throughout your entire argument,
because I couldn't the only thing I might disagree with
is the double digit touchdowns. I do think Montgomery has
a chance to get there, because I do. I absolutely
think it's gonna be his job inside the five. Other
than that, I think he could lose every other aspect
of the work, and that is kind of worrisome. Inside
(25:18):
the top fifty five, it was really hard for me
to find positive notes. You know, I mentioned drafting, but
not excited. I put he's a little better than expected
because my expectations were pretty low, and I put goal
line work. That's not enough to draft the guy at
number fifty four or fifty five. He had a negative
(25:38):
ePaper rush forty three percent success rate. That fifteen percent
negative a tenth rate. Now, the fifteen percent is not terrible,
it's usually over eighteen is when you're worried. But he's
not explosive. Six percent He only had, you know, three
twenty yard rushes out of one hundred and fifty eight.
There might be a real lack of explosivity here. No one,
(26:00):
nobody's making a case for Montgomery explosive plays. So what
are we hoping for. He was already the second best
pass catcher, and I think you might be right he
might be the second best pass catcher again, So yeah,
he might lead the backfield in catches the first month,
but right now I think he might be an underdog
(26:23):
to lead them in catches. Let's say after the body
the thing I wrote at the bottom of the saving
grace here, because touchdowns will always matter, I think Houston
will be a little bit better. And my thought of
why they got away from the woody receptions was really
a condemnation of the state of that offensive line was horrendous.
(26:45):
They didn't really do it up to address it where
we should be really confident. So yeah, the more we
talk about it, the more I'm getting away from Montgomery.
My daughter would say, it gives me the icks.
Speaker 2 (26:56):
Garrett Blunt vibes. If you know what that.
Speaker 1 (27:00):
That if you went like Garrett Blunt plus like you
would just put in a kind of nebulous descriptor at
the end, I'd be fervently agreeing with you. I'm I
think I'm gonna get away from Montgomery. It's another one
where I don't think I'll bust out. But you shouldn't
be making picks, especially at that point in the draft,
that come with so many red flags. He feels like
(27:22):
the kind of guy that you won't even be able
to drop him either, and sometimes those are the worst picks.
You're invested in him. He plays, but he has no ceiling,
with kind of a relatively low for He feels like
the RB two that gets dropped into a flex role
and that's really not where we want to be. The
next player on the board was mine receiver moving to
(27:44):
Buffalo and he, you know, much more explosive offense, which
is usually a bullet sign. I'm not feeling the vibes.
It's DJ Moore. We've just had a bunch out of me.
Can we get your take first on djm Then he
might have been getting crowded out in Chicago. He did
have that one really good season with poor quarterback play.
(28:06):
I don't know, what do you think about DJ Wore's
going at pick sixty. If there's a lot of wide receivers,
I like at that point, he's not one of them.
Speaker 2 (28:13):
Jake, Yeah, I get that. I've been dabbling a little
bit with him, so I'm not completely staying away, but
I'm terrified to draft him because I see two paths
for DJ Moore. There's a fork in the woods and
he can go one or the other direction. He can
either be the next Stefan Diggs in Buffalo or he
(28:37):
can be the next Amari Cooper in Buffalo, and those
situations are drastically different. If he's the next Stefan Digs
in Buffalo, boy, we should just be thrilled that we're
able to draft him where he's going right now. If
he's the next to Mari Cooper in Buffalo, we shouldn't
be touching him at all. We shouldn't be touching him
(28:58):
with somebody else's draft at that point. I think, though,
Dj Moore, you've mentioned that he probably needed a change
of scenery, or at least that was an inference. I
think getting out of Chicago is probably a better result
than if he had stayed in Chicago. But that's not
saying a ton, it's just not I still think it's
gonna be a run heavy offense. John So he does
(29:20):
scare me.
Speaker 1 (29:21):
Yeah, it's nerve wracking. Last year Josh Allen had me
adding Brandon Cooks, so you know he can meet lemonade
out of Lemons apparently. But it's hard to get really
too excited give when you're diving on more. To me,
it looks a lot like a declining profile, right, that
(29:41):
feels quantifiable. Here we go twenty nine years old. He
did have three top ten finishes, but never above the
wide receiver seven, so there was already a lack of ceiling.
And again twenty nine with career lows. And this is
including a rookie year, which to me is very worrisome.
We've often talked about he takes repetitions, you know, so
(30:02):
usually an entire rookie season is not great. You wouldn't
want to be at your lowest point in Fantasy points
per route less than a third of a point pro route,
which is not good. He had his fewest receptions fifty,
but also fewest receptions per game below three yikes, fewest
receiving yards six eighty two, but also fewest receiving yards
per game forty point one. His lowest EPA on targets
(30:24):
and lowest EPA per targets just a tenth of a
point per target, not very good. His fewest amount of
first downs at thirty two, his fewest yards after the catch,
also yards after the catch perception, that's at four point one.
And then those you know, my advance numbers that I
look at the most lowest yards per route at less
than one in a quarter, and his lowest target per
(30:46):
route that was right around fifteen percent. He had never
been below nineteen. So no matter how you spin it,
he was worse deep, he was worse closed, He was
worse at earning targets. He earned fewer and did less
with them. Yes, Josh Allen could be the carrying tool.
I worry a little bit about the efficiency numbers because
(31:07):
the Bears offense was good, so you'd like to think that, yes,
totals might fall when you're surrounded with talent. That makes sense,
But shouldn't that talent draw attention to open up explosives?
And we just didn't get it. So when you put
it all together, you know, bibyd bobbity boom. I'm worried.
(31:29):
And again we talk about one v ones. Right now,
you can get either Christian Watson or Carnel Tate at
the same ADP. You have to make that decision. Very
hard to get both. You're never getting all three of them.
And I'm always taking Watson and usually preferring Tate in
that spot depending on my mood. Right, Watson with the
(31:51):
injuries opened up targets. We've seen him. Win feels like
a clear number one Tate. I'm a little bit worried
about the total kind of offensive environment. But we've seen
Dave om kingmakers of first early first rounders. He's got
a bone to pick with the league, and maybe we
get progression from ward. How can we take more of
either one of those guys, Man, I'm struggling least points
(32:13):
on more before we get out of here.
Speaker 2 (32:15):
Yeah, don't do it, Christian Watson. And just if you're
worried about the injuries there, well don't play him when
he's injuried.
Speaker 1 (32:23):
There.
Speaker 2 (32:24):
He goes simple, simple solution bench when he's when he's out,
playing when he's not. But I do think that if
anybody's still holding on Hope, I don't want to completely
rip it away from him, John, because I feel we
should end, try to end on a positive note in
some capacity. I will just say something positive about DJ
Moore while saying something kind of negative about the Chicago Bears,
(32:45):
which is my bread and butter. The Chicago Bears and
Caleb Williams. They looked good in totality when you look
at all their stats. But Caleb Williams not a great
or accurate passer in the basically fifty seven minutes of
most football games. He was just above STRs Sanders in
terms of accuracy completion percentage last year. So that's it
(33:09):
upgrade for DJ Moore. Going to Josh Allen.
Speaker 1 (33:12):
Yeah, you probably could have put that period after Pancer.
He's not an actor Pancer. He's just he's not an
actor Pancer, or at least yet. Now, if I was
gonna and with something positive, give me some credit front
and it was my anti take was that if I'm
not drafting More, I am really really bullish on Dalton Kinkaid,
who I think could be the major threat in the offense,
(33:33):
who is having a healthy camp and had all the
efficiency stats that we like. He was over one in
three quarter points, fantasy points per target. I love that,
over twenty four percent target perroute, over two point eight
yards per rout. Extrapoligue that at pick one twenty five
in the great offense because again we don't I don't
necessarily think More as bad. I think he's too expensive,
(33:54):
but I do want to be attached to the Buffalo offense,
and I think he's being good will be good, and
I'm just getting it a little bit later. That Andre forward,
So yeah, it was really great. We're off CMC, we're
off David Montgomery, we're off Karen Williams, we're off DJ Moore,
and we're making sure that we all donate through Fantasy
Cares or so. From John and Jake, we really do
appreciate everyone kind of hanging along with us as we
(34:15):
do the hard charge towards opening. Kickup. Man, I'm really excited, Jake,
So I'll see it in about one hundred drafts my friends.
Catch everybody later and haven't heard of your quat
Time now for Fantasy Football Weekly from iHeartRadio, your weekly
source for the nation's best fantasy speculation and advice. What's
up and welcome back another four season edition of Fantasy
Football Weekly and your hopes and print. John mcgaza, and
my friend and your colors, mister Jake Trobridge. Jake, another
(00:24):
week that you pulled me away from drafting for half
an hour. This better be worth it. I have a feeling.
What it's good. You've got some good stuff on deck. Hey,
doing my man.
Speaker 2 (00:31):
I'm so sorry to have done that to you so
many times. Now I'm doing I'm doing phenomenal. And you
know why because it's officially fantasy football season for me now, John.
It doesn't really start for me until I've drafted in
Scott Fish Bowl. And I've done that this past weekend.
So it's feeling good.
Speaker 1 (00:53):
Well, that's a really great segue to the first thing.
In case anyone's wondering. It's an industry league set up
by Scott Fish who does it just so much great
work that we want to shout him out. Now. I
don't play in the tournament because I don't really have
the bandwidth for the wild scoring. We're gonna go over
in just one second. But I do always make sure
to donate, and you can get that at Fantasy Cares
(01:13):
or one word on social media just search Scott Fish
and I kind of give, you know more keeping piles
of respect and praise on someone. You know. I have
a soft spot for Christmas and giving family stuff myself,
but he really goes out there and puts a ton
ton metric ton of time and effort to this stuff. So, Jake,
(01:33):
I saw the scoring board, and I'll be honest, it
made my eyes cross at first, just really quick six
points for a touchdown, two points for conversion, and that's
where it kind of goes off the rails. It's half
point PPR half point for a first down, which is
kind of cool, but then tight ends just bonuses through
the roof. They get an extra full point perception, extra
(01:55):
full point for first down. Then there's ten point bonuses
for all the big games. Three hundred four, one hundred
yards passing but also explosive please forty yards passing rushing
and twenty yard receiving. You also don't need a quarterback
in this one, or any position in particular, so just
tell us how you attack this one. My first question was,
(02:15):
did you draft a lot of tight ends?
Speaker 2 (02:18):
You know, I might have drafted a few tight ends
this time around. What is really nice about this this
year is that you don't have to have a specific
set position at all. You can draft literally whoever you want.
And so I started, John, I looked at those big
play bonuses, and I got really enticed by the tight ends,
(02:41):
because yeah, you're getting three times to scoring for every
catch and every first down. So I was drafted out
of the four spot, and I felt very pleased when
brock Bauers was sitting there. Felt like a very reasonable pick. John.
Would you would you agree that coming out of the gates,
that's a nice start.
Speaker 1 (02:56):
Mike gut reaction was to be shocked at hours dropped
to four. There's a guy who could contend for the
target lead. And if you're gonna multiply those receptions by three,
that's massive pust. We know he's got twenty yard catches
in the bag. Also, So I would imagine that you
set a pace and all the other really good tight
(03:18):
ends went right after you. I mean, you weren't able
to stack any other really good tight ends, weren't you.
Speaker 2 (03:24):
Oh you would think so you would think all these
tight ends would fly off the board. But Trey McBride
went a few picks later. But I'm sitting on the
clock in the second round and Colston Loveland's still there. Yes,
so I simply had to smash the button on Colston
Loveland and I thought, you know, starting with two tight ends,
I got some giggles through the rooms. It's a unique start.
(03:47):
I come back in the third round. Guess who's still there?
John Tyler Warren, who I presume to be the leading
pass catcher on.
Speaker 1 (03:54):
The All bits aside, all bits aside, because I knew
that you took three tight ends out of the box.
I'm still legitimately shocked at a guy like Warren again
with all the target boyds, who's used in so many
creative ways. Who can be a volume guy, get tons
of first downs and explosive please fell so deep man,
(04:15):
I would have to think. You gotta wait with fantasy
murder here, all right, just take you through it, because
we do what to get into our zero share players. Yes,
but just wrap us up. How far into the draft
are you? How many tight ends did you go? And
who ended up on the squad.
Speaker 2 (04:29):
Yeah, let me cut through the bit here, but I
will tell you right now that I am currently Because
you start at the live draft, you draft ten rounds,
and then it continues as a slow draft. So I'm
still drafting technically. I've completed through round fifteen, and John,
I have literally nothing but tight ends on this roster.
I have fifteen tight ends and nothing else. Because it
(04:51):
started as a good strategy and then it turned into
a little bit of a bit, a comedy bit at
the live draft, and then it transitioned into an act
of charity because I started to say to folks, if
you want to keep this alive, you know, if you
want to see nothing but tight ends down this board,
chip in a few bucks to Fantasy Cares, show me
(05:12):
the receipt, and I'll keep drafting them. So they kept
doing that all day, so I kept drafting them, and
it looks like at this point, I'm gonna complete the run.
I'm gonna have twenty of these things when it's all
said and done.
Speaker 1 (05:23):
I love that you'll also be the busiest GM week zero.
It's kind of funny, though, what starts as a bit
may end up with a trophy. I'm dead serious. I
have to go get my hands on this full draft board.
Now I haven't done all of the math right now,
which just back at the napkin bud when you're tripling
up receptions. I'm sorry with first down bonuses. Man, I
(05:45):
can't believe that sounds like so much fun all right
now today kind of meat and potatoes of today. We've
done a little too much niceties, right, we gotta get
rid of that. Let's rub some feathers. Today. We're gonna
do zero share players. Now, I won't bury the lead.
I'm a zero out kind of guy. There are lots
of people that talk about building portfolios. Not my style.
(06:09):
There are players that I really am very binary on
and I go yes and I go no, and I
will handbuild literally several hundred drafts. I already have probably
close to two hundred. And there's a lot of players
I'm zero shared on and I'm gonna stay that way.
So we're gonna focus on a pair from each of us.
I guess you could start this one off because you
(06:31):
have the player that's the highest and man first round.
So it's funny because it sounds like a popular I'm
not fading him kind of guy. When you have an
EDP of six, someone's drafting Christian McCaffrey. Talk to us
about why you're off, you know, one of the best
players of this generation.
Speaker 2 (06:47):
Yeah, a lot of When you phrase it that way,
John's really hard to come back from. But he truly
is one of the best running backs of this generation.
I understand the argument for drafting him. Obviously, last year,
if you avoided him because of the off season injury
stuff that was happening, you felt very foolish watching him
finish as the overall RB one, And since twenty nineteen,
(07:12):
if Christian McCaffrey has played a full season, Christian McCaffrey
has finished as the overall RB one or at least
very close to it. But the problem is, in his
last six seasons, you've only gotten that healthy CMC half
of the time. Now he's sitting there at thirty years old,
and he's sixth off the board. It's RB three. It's
(07:34):
just hard for me to look at what he did
last year and be willing to try to copy and
paste that. You don't have to do that exactly right,
because he's not being taken first overall or even the
first running back, but it still feels like you're drafting
him very close to his ceiling, and I ask myself
what the most likely outcome is with this guy. Is
it that he repeats what he did last year, or
(07:56):
is it that he gets injured or falls off in
some capacity because he had everything going right for him
when the chips actually fell last year. It didn't look
that way at the start, John, but the forty nine
ers ended up unexpectedly without Brandon Ayuk for the entire season,
without Rock Purty for half the season, without Ricky Parsol
(08:17):
for half the season. George Kill of course missed his
requisite amount of time six games he ended up out for.
And I don't think that's a coincidence then that CMC
got a career high in carries and a career high
in total touches four hundred plus total touches for a
guy who's thirty years old. John, It's it's concerning. I
(08:37):
think I've maybe said this stat on the show before,
but I just want to put it out there one
more time because I keep coming back to it. I
don't into the vaults here, John, going back to twenty twenty,
there's been six times we're running back at least twenty
five years old, trying to filter out the super young guys,
not just at least three hundred and fifty touches and
five out of six times that running back basic traded
(09:00):
off the face of the year at the following season.
Derek Henry is the only guy who managed to avoid
that once. So it's a tough bet.
Speaker 1 (09:08):
Yeah, Henry really is like the living exception. I'm probably
gonna make the mistake of not being on him again
this year. Man, the CMC stuff really is kind of scary.
You mentioned a lot of the good meta points, right,
there's an efficiency decline generally over three hundred and fifty touches. Now,
he did have nine top five finishes last year. Oh
MACARRONI man, was he great? But it was all pass catching.
(09:31):
Like you mentioned, they've gone and addressed a lot of that.
You bring in Mike Evans and always that Shanahan X
spot has been one of the really desired you know,
retail right, location, location, location, one of the places you
want to be in fantasy football. You know me, I'm
not try of the spreadsheets. I wanted to see how
bad the rushing stuff was for CMC checked this out
(09:52):
of thirty three running backs last year, with at least
one hundred and fifty rushes, so thirty three running backs,
twenty ninth. In yard per rush, it was below four
twenty eighth yards after contact per rush, right around two
and three quarters, twenty third in EPA per rush, it
was negative, so he wasn't even adding positive value. He
(10:13):
was twenty second in success rate at forty two percent,
twenty second in explosive rush rate at six and a half,
and twenty first in that stat that I talk about
all the time with running backs zero or less, right,
I kind of call them negative. Zero is not necessarily negative,
but you know, negative rush attempts, it's not a positive rush.
Atemp Nearly nineteen percent of his attempts went for either
zero or negative yards. I don't know how many. He's
(10:38):
not the best running back right when we think of
running back in totality. Yes, he's still uber talented and
like I said, borderline, if not objectively generational. Right now,
stepping off the bus, I'm not so sure. One other
thing that we haven't mentioned, and I know because I've
stepped on that rake and had it smacked me over
and over. Like the side show, Bob's kind of bit
(11:01):
was the running backs behind him are actually healthy. This
time around, it was the big Isaac Grendo guy wompah,
you know, sand trombone. But this year. Last year they
drafted Caitlin Black out of Indiana third round. Year before
Jordan James out of Oregon fifth round. The drum beats
are not crazy for the one, but they have talked
(11:21):
them up and being competent, and there is at least
a non zero chance that one or both of those
young men get a chance for some of the low
calorie work might even be the work around the end
zone if it's short yardage, plenty of red flags here,
anything else in McCaffrey before we move on, I mean,
I think he's gonna be good. I think we both
(11:41):
think he's gonna score fantasy points. But at the number six,
you're you would be pretty sure this guy's a chance
to one finish the season and also finished the season
as a one oh one. I've got major concerns for
both of those.
Speaker 2 (11:53):
Yeah, that's my takeaway. That's the thing. It's not that
I don't want people to be like, Wow, Jake is
just really you know, trying to upset Christian McCaffrey out here,
trying to talk bad about him. Not at all, love you, CMC,
but it's just that type of risk in the first
six picks isn't something I'm prepared to do. I'll take
(12:14):
big risks later in drafts, but not that early in
the first round.
Speaker 1 (12:18):
Yeah, it's funny. That's kind of feedback I get all
the time for my own writing and streams where I'm
the first person to say I do not believe in
injury optimism. I don't like to pay for things we've
never seen before. Yeah, until the later rounds dot dot
in the parentheses after that is, until it doesn't cost
me anything, and the risk reward ratio we should be
prioritizing the entire time goes in my fever. Yeah, I'll
(12:42):
take injury optimism when it doesn't cost me anything. I
don't want it in the first round. I mean, you're
putting him next to a guy like Ashton Genty, who
we've been talking about all summer. So far, he's moved
from the front of the second into the middle of
the first. I've had him from in front of CMC
the entire time. High stakes leagues are reflecting that Genti's
(13:02):
inside the top eight, inside the top six, right next
to or in front of CMC. So not to necessarily
appeal to authority or look to confirm my priors, but
the market is agreeing with us. I'm with you. How
about where would you take CMC if he gets into
the second round, if he makes it to the turn,
are you taking him at thirteen?
Speaker 2 (13:20):
Absolutely? Okay, it's completely a matter of him. Honestly, if
I'm sitting there at I don't know the one eleven
and he's on the board and I have that short turn,
it's a lot easier to do that game because you're
not waiting so long to come back and playing the
guests and game of who's going to be there for
you in the second round quite as much.
Speaker 1 (13:37):
Yeah, I'm glad that I'm gonna you say that because
it's fair, but also it again reflects our true perspective.
You don't think he's bad at football, but there are
real opportunity costs going on here, all right. The next
player was one of my zero fay guys, not as
high as yours, but still inside the top thirty five picks.
Also another running back, Karen Williams of the Rams, And
(13:59):
I'm definitely getting some eye rolls already, and some you
know those teeth like sucking things on my daughter does up.
You know, I got it. But down the stretch we
saw that workload really start to converge. After Week eleven,
Kyroen only had two top eight finishes and I mentioned
eight because he never got above that, and Koram in
(14:19):
that same span was the overall RB three Week fourteen,
Kyen played that week twelve, one, twenty eight and two
and he caught a ball for three yards, So there
is some ceiling even when they were both on the field.
Then when you start to zoom in a little bit more,
it really gets worse for Kien. Again that same time frame,
he did out touch Korum sixteen to ten and a half.
(14:40):
But Korm was way better across the board, and we
can even look at the year to date stats. Last year,
Korm was better in terms of Fantasy points per snap.
He was better in yards per attempt, yards before contact
per rush, EPA per rush, and explosive rush rate and
a lot of these. The EPA and explosive rush rate
is nearly double, if not more than Kiren. And of
(15:01):
course I always add the layer of heavy or eight
man boxes. Korm faced more heavy boxes fifty two to
forty six, So it's not even like Kiren the banger
was easier to perceive as a run play, so they
were up on him. No, that wasn't the case. Korm
kind of had the tougher sledding and was better and
(15:22):
then the piece the resistance in that. You know, I'm
saying week eleven because that was really when the convergence happened.
How about goal line rushes, which I've defined as inside
the five yard line. Korm had ten to Karen Williams eight,
So this is not down the stretch. This was not
really Kiren's backfield anymore. Because if I'm gonna get the
(15:43):
majority of the goal line touches with what's like a
seventy pick ADP discount, maybe sixty pick ad B discount,
Korm has been one of the dead zone RB guys.
I like when I'm passing off Kiren. This is one
of these anti takes that we've been talking about. If
if you don't like Kien, you should be drafting Korum.
I've been trying to really address up my own fantasy game.
(16:05):
What do you think about Kien Williams or are you
even drafting him at all?
Speaker 2 (16:08):
I actually have been drafting a little bit of Kien Williams,
and you certainly make a lot of valid points in
terms of what his efficiency is and what his sort
of play by play looks like. I think what's hard
is when you step back and you just see in
totality that it seems like all Kien Williams does is
finish as a top ten running back despite all of
(16:30):
these struggles, and so it feels like year after year
you go, ugh, the logical case doesn't support what he
ends up becoming by the end of the season. And
I don't know if it's simply a factor of that offense,
if it's just something where maybe, yes, Blake Korum is
this efficient, or it seems to be much better than
(16:53):
Kyraen Williams because he's not getting quite as much work overall.
Sometimes that even just happens that there are guys who
have been known throughout their NFL careers as running backs,
you are really great if you get one hundred to
one hundred and fifty touches. If you start getting more
than that, then it starts to look a little bit shoddy.
I don't know that that's the case with Blake Koram.
(17:14):
I think it's probably just folks going well, Korum was
there last year and things still worked out for Kyon Williams,
so I'm gonna go ahead and invest. I don't hate it.
I don't love it either with Kien.
Speaker 1 (17:26):
Yeah, I conveniently left out all the counterpoints to my
own argument, which is, you know, the Rams are an
excellent offense that could support two running backs, and I
believe that. So it's similar to the CMC thing. We're
not trying to throw dirt on these guys Fantasy Grave
so much as it's really a price thing. For Kiron,
I'd like to see him around later. And again, I
(17:48):
think the Korum price is really good. I think they
should be a little bit closer together, and we've seen
that years past in the Steelers backfield and the Vikings
backfield last year, and it just hasn't been There's been
this disparity. So I'm going with the cheaper and kind
of younger option. But I fully understand if the Rams
are gonna produce at the same level. Right number one
(18:08):
in points per game, number one in yards per game,
number one in success rate, number one in first downs
per drive, number one in points per drives, and they're
objectively awesome. So yeah, there's no room for both to produce.
But I have found last thing, and maybe you could
add on this before we take a quick break. Is
the way I'm perceiving the Kiren price is there's been
(18:29):
this prevalence of pushing running backs to the four, which
I'm agreeing with. I think you need to do that,
But I think he's getting sucked into his tailwind right
the current. I'm coming from Virginia Beach. You can tell
that the current is kind of pulling him out where
I don't want where I don't quite feel the same
about Kiren. Opposed, Let's say a brite Hole is going
(18:50):
right next to him, or I think Hole might be
a better back, better in the past game that has
a greater share. I kin I could be wrong because
the offense is not nearly as good. So how are
you dealing with like those back end RB ones? Justin?
Is your like a metadraft plan type of Thingy's.
Speaker 2 (19:07):
This prevalence of gravitating towards anybody with a workhorse sensibility.
At this point, Iron Williams the feels to have the
workhorse sensibility, And you mentioned Brice Hall, who certainly Yeah,
it's like, you know, all due respect to the backups there,
(19:27):
Isaiah Davis, sure, Braylan Allen Wisconsin Alum, I have to
appreciate him, but you just go, well, Brice Hall is
getting all the work and it doesn't even matter necessarily
if he is a better individual running back. It's just
a matter of gauging the offenses times workload. It feels
like that's the equation right now. That's pumping all these
(19:48):
guys up into the same bubble. Javonte Williams, I think,
is probably categorically in that same boat, even though I
would say I would much rather have both Breisce Hall
and Kyen Williams than Javante Williams. It's kind of a
flattening I think of this group, probably just because everybody's
so desperate to get running backs.
Speaker 1 (20:07):
John, Yeah, I love that, and I really do agree,
which is part of why I'm trying to get in earlier.
Right before the wave kind of brings me out. That
was really well put. I wish I wish I'd put
it that way, all right, So before we move on,
it's a pretty good segue also into the second half.
The whistle is about to blow on our first half,
and it's a running back that I defaulted to. But
(20:29):
holding my nose and it's one of yours. Zero Fay
guys are gonna get to after this quick break. All right,
Jaked marching band is wrapping up, and we're gonna go
to that running back that I was alluding to that
I've been pulling the trigger on, not with confidence, but
also because I don't want to end up empty handed.
(20:52):
And it's David Montgomery with Houston. He's backed up but
been efficient. But it was a great team, right, a
team that could suppor guys. He's going to a team
that probably can't. But now he's the lead role ADP.
Fifty four. It feels fairly priced. Again. Whenever I take him,
I am almost literally holding my nose. Talk to us
about David Montgomery. You might push me right into the
(21:14):
zero cliff myself. Here.
Speaker 2 (21:16):
We'll see sometime some days, John, I look at David
Montgomery and go, I get it. Sure again, it's a
workload thing, and he's going much later that group that
we talked about just very recently. Kyron Williams, Breese Hall,
Javonte Williams. If you're just looking at the workload argument,
he fits in there, probably, But I think David Montgomery
(21:38):
is the trappiest trap that's ever trapped in fantasy football.
Right now. You are looking at that ADP fifty four
that puts him in that middle of the fifth round.
Every year, there's this group of running backs kind of
talk similar to what we were talking about earlier, where
they're getting pumped up the board and no one really
necessarily wants to draft them, but you kind of feel
(21:59):
like you have to because the position's really starting to
thin out. You know, this is the dead zone of
running backs. Fifth round should not be that, and yet
it feels like with David Montgomery there, that's exactly what
it is. This David Montgomery is that little kid from
the sixth sense's favorite running back, I have to imagine
because he sees dead zone running backs and he does
(22:20):
see David Montgomery sitting there as sort of the pack leader.
And I just don't get the upside argument. I guess
we're looking at David Montgomery going from a top four
scoring offense in Detroit to a middle of the pack
scoring offense in Houston. He's going from a very respectable
offensive line to what was one of the worst offensive
(22:42):
lines last year. Maybe it improves, maybe, but it's still
pretty unlikely to be as good as what he had.
And I also think that people are just under selling
what he Mark's potential in this backfield. I see him
going just desperately late into drafts. Nearing the last round
(23:02):
of drafts is like this cast off. And I understand
that Woody marks last year he was not a good
workhorse running back. He wasn't when he had to unexpectedly
fill in first for Joe Mixon, whose mysterious foot injury
kept him out all year. Houston clearly thought they were
gonna have him, they didn't, and then they bring in
Nick Chubb. Nick Chubb is running in sand basically the
(23:25):
whole time. So Woody Marx has to take on a
much bigger role than I think they wanted him to.
Because as a pure pass catcher, John Marx was the
best in his rookie class by a long shot, and
I think he still has that potential. We didn't get
to see much of it last year, which was so
flabbergasting because he was really great as a pass catcher.
(23:47):
I don't know how if you're the Texans, you see
what he did early in the season as that third
third down back eye and you just back away from it.
I mean, he was getting you know, ten yards per
target at a point in last season, and so I
think Montgomery is this guy. He looks good. We still
have visions of him in Detroit like he's gonna magically
(24:08):
get double digit touchdowns again. And I think that's what
you need if he's anything more than a decent flex play.
But I don't see it, John, Like I was looking
at guys going right after him. You tell me, I
guess who is more interesting to you in this range here,
So we've got Montgomery and right near him is DeAndre Swift.
(24:28):
Do you see a big gap there in value?
Speaker 1 (24:32):
I mean, if you really want to be attached to
the Chicago touchdowns in that case, if you could, I've
even kind of, I don't know, I've been dropping back
for guys like Rashaw White or even Tony Pollard. That
a lot of the arguments feel similar, and I keep
asking myself why I'm paying it, and you nailed all
of it. Radio listeners can't see just the really uncomfortable
(24:56):
a couple of faces I was making throughout your entire argument,
because I couldn't the only thing I might disagree with
is the double digit touchdowns. I do think Montgomery has
a chance to get there, because I do. I absolutely
think it's gonna be his job inside the five. Other
than that, I think he could lose every other aspect
of the work, and that is kind of worrisome. Inside
(25:18):
the top fifty five, it was really hard for me
to find positive notes. You know, I mentioned drafting, but
not excited. I put he's a little better than expected
because my expectations were pretty low, and I put goal
line work. That's not enough to draft the guy at
number fifty four or fifty five. He had a negative
(25:38):
ePaper rush forty three percent success rate. That fifteen percent
negative a tenth rate. Now, the fifteen percent is not terrible,
it's usually over eighteen is when you're worried. But he's
not explosive. Six percent He only had, you know, three
twenty yard rushes out of one hundred and fifty eight.
There might be a real lack of explosivity here. No one,
(26:00):
nobody's making a case for Montgomery explosive plays. So what
are we hoping for. He was already the second best
pass catcher, and I think you might be right he
might be the second best pass catcher again, So yeah,
he might lead the backfield in catches the first month,
but right now I think he might be an underdog
(26:23):
to lead them in catches. Let's say after the body
the thing I wrote at the bottom of the saving
grace here, because touchdowns will always matter, I think Houston
will be a little bit better. And my thought of
why they got away from the woody receptions was really
a condemnation of the state of that offensive line was horrendous.
(26:45):
They didn't really do it up to address it where
we should be really confident. So yeah, the more we
talk about it, the more I'm getting away from Montgomery.
My daughter would say, it gives me the icks.
Speaker 2 (26:56):
Garrett Blunt vibes. If you know what that.
Speaker 1 (27:00):
That if you went like Garrett Blunt plus like you
would just put in a kind of nebulous descriptor at
the end, I'd be fervently agreeing with you. I'm I
think I'm gonna get away from Montgomery. It's another one
where I don't think I'll bust out. But you shouldn't
be making picks, especially at that point in the draft,
that come with so many red flags. He feels like
(27:22):
the kind of guy that you won't even be able
to drop him either, and sometimes those are the worst picks.
You're invested in him. He plays, but he has no ceiling,
with kind of a relatively low for He feels like
the RB two that gets dropped into a flex role
and that's really not where we want to be. The
next player on the board was mine receiver moving to
(27:44):
Buffalo and he, you know, much more explosive offense, which
is usually a bullet sign. I'm not feeling the vibes.
It's DJ Moore. We've just had a bunch out of me.
Can we get your take first on djm Then he
might have been getting crowded out in Chicago. He did
have that one really good season with poor quarterback play.
(28:06):
I don't know, what do you think about DJ Wore's
going at pick sixty. If there's a lot of wide receivers,
I like at that point, he's not one of them.
Speaker 2 (28:13):
Jake, Yeah, I get that. I've been dabbling a little
bit with him, so I'm not completely staying away, but
I'm terrified to draft him because I see two paths
for DJ Moore. There's a fork in the woods and
he can go one or the other direction. He can
either be the next Stefan Diggs in Buffalo or he
(28:37):
can be the next Amari Cooper in Buffalo, and those
situations are drastically different. If he's the next Stefan Digs
in Buffalo, boy, we should just be thrilled that we're
able to draft him where he's going right now. If
he's the next to Mari Cooper in Buffalo, we shouldn't
be touching him at all. We shouldn't be touching him
(28:58):
with somebody else's draft at that point. I think, though,
Dj Moore, you've mentioned that he probably needed a change
of scenery, or at least that was an inference. I
think getting out of Chicago is probably a better result
than if he had stayed in Chicago. But that's not
saying a ton, it's just not I still think it's
gonna be a run heavy offense. John So he does
(29:20):
scare me.
Speaker 1 (29:21):
Yeah, it's nerve wracking. Last year Josh Allen had me
adding Brandon Cooks, so you know he can meet lemonade
out of Lemons apparently. But it's hard to get really
too excited give when you're diving on more. To me,
it looks a lot like a declining profile, right, that
(29:41):
feels quantifiable. Here we go twenty nine years old. He
did have three top ten finishes, but never above the
wide receiver seven, so there was already a lack of ceiling.
And again twenty nine with career lows. And this is
including a rookie year, which to me is very worrisome.
We've often talked about he takes repetitions, you know, so
(30:02):
usually an entire rookie season is not great. You wouldn't
want to be at your lowest point in Fantasy points
per route less than a third of a point pro route,
which is not good. He had his fewest receptions fifty,
but also fewest receptions per game below three yikes, fewest
receiving yards six eighty two, but also fewest receiving yards
per game forty point one. His lowest EPA on targets
(30:24):
and lowest EPA per targets just a tenth of a
point per target, not very good. His fewest amount of
first downs at thirty two, his fewest yards after the catch,
also yards after the catch perception, that's at four point one.
And then those you know, my advance numbers that I
look at the most lowest yards per route at less
than one in a quarter, and his lowest target per
(30:46):
route that was right around fifteen percent. He had never
been below nineteen. So no matter how you spin it,
he was worse deep, he was worse closed, He was
worse at earning targets. He earned fewer and did less
with them. Yes, Josh Allen could be the carrying tool.
I worry a little bit about the efficiency numbers because
(31:07):
the Bears offense was good, so you'd like to think that, yes,
totals might fall when you're surrounded with talent. That makes sense,
But shouldn't that talent draw attention to open up explosives?
And we just didn't get it. So when you put
it all together, you know, bibyd bobbity boom. I'm worried.
(31:29):
And again we talk about one v ones. Right now,
you can get either Christian Watson or Carnel Tate at
the same ADP. You have to make that decision. Very
hard to get both. You're never getting all three of them.
And I'm always taking Watson and usually preferring Tate in
that spot depending on my mood. Right, Watson with the
(31:51):
injuries opened up targets. We've seen him. Win feels like
a clear number one Tate. I'm a little bit worried
about the total kind of offensive environment. But we've seen
Dave om kingmakers of first early first rounders. He's got
a bone to pick with the league, and maybe we
get progression from ward. How can we take more of
either one of those guys, Man, I'm struggling least points
(32:13):
on more before we get out of here.
Speaker 2 (32:15):
Yeah, don't do it, Christian Watson. And just if you're
worried about the injuries there, well don't play him when
he's injuried.
Speaker 1 (32:23):
There.
Speaker 2 (32:24):
He goes simple, simple solution bench when he's when he's out,
playing when he's not. But I do think that if
anybody's still holding on Hope, I don't want to completely
rip it away from him, John, because I feel we
should end, try to end on a positive note in
some capacity. I will just say something positive about DJ
Moore while saying something kind of negative about the Chicago Bears,
(32:45):
which is my bread and butter. The Chicago Bears and
Caleb Williams. They looked good in totality when you look
at all their stats. But Caleb Williams not a great
or accurate passer in the basically fifty seven minutes of
most football games. He was just above STRs Sanders in
terms of accuracy completion percentage last year. So that's it
(33:09):
upgrade for DJ Moore. Going to Josh Allen.
Speaker 1 (33:12):
Yeah, you probably could have put that period after Pancer.
He's not an actor Pancer. He's just he's not an
actor Pancer, or at least yet. Now, if I was
gonna and with something positive, give me some credit front
and it was my anti take was that if I'm
not drafting More, I am really really bullish on Dalton Kinkaid,
who I think could be the major threat in the offense,
(33:33):
who is having a healthy camp and had all the
efficiency stats that we like. He was over one in
three quarter points, fantasy points per target. I love that,
over twenty four percent target perroute, over two point eight
yards per rout. Extrapoligue that at pick one twenty five
in the great offense because again we don't I don't
necessarily think More as bad. I think he's too expensive,
(33:54):
but I do want to be attached to the Buffalo offense,
and I think he's being good will be good, and
I'm just getting it a little bit later. That Andre forward,
So yeah, it was really great. We're off CMC, we're
off David Montgomery, we're off Karen Williams, we're off DJ Moore,
and we're making sure that we all donate through Fantasy
Cares or so. From John and Jake, we really do
appreciate everyone kind of hanging along with us as we
(34:15):
do the hard charge towards opening. Kickup. Man, I'm really excited, Jake,
So I'll see it in about one hundred drafts my friends.
Catch everybody later and haven't heard of your quat
Popular Podcasts
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com
The Breakfast Club
The World's Most Dangerous Morning Show, The Breakfast Club, With DJ Envy, Jess Hilarious, And Charlamagne Tha God!