May 7, 2026 • 35 mins
John Laghezza and Jake Trowbridge are back with another episode covering a ton of topics to keep the fantasy conversation flowing! Some of the offseason topics we review are the depth at tight end, what the Cardinals may have in store for us and a spirited debate on early running back strategies!
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Time now for Fantasy Football Weekly from iHeartRadio, your weekly
source for the nation's best fantasy speculation and advice.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
Welcome back to the newest edition of Fantasy Football Weekly
with your faithful narrator and host, mister John mccayz. Are
here with my good friend and yours, Jake Trowbridge. Jake,
the draft is in the books and the chaos is ensuing.
Let's go. We've been talking about this moment. It happened
so fast, and I've already been in a couple draft lobbies.
(00:32):
I'm polishing up my first set of rankings for publishing.
You know, you like to get him out there and
battle test him first. How are you doing in this
new post draft environment, my friends, A whole new world.
Speaker 1 (00:44):
I don't even recognize what I see when I look
around anymore. No, I've been deep in the rookie drafts
for sure. I've locked up four dynasty rookie drafts. I
just have a couple that are still in the wings.
How do you feel, by the way, about drafting immediately
after the draft for your dynasty leagues versus waiting a
bit letting things kind of settle.
Speaker 2 (01:05):
My off season flavor is more best bawl than dynasty.
But I think the answer is the same. I want
this is when I want to be aggressive, because I
think now is the best chance to take advantage of
priors before the new wisdom of the crowd comes in football,
now that it's going year round. While it is technically around,
(01:29):
the vast majority of the work and real serious work
I think happens as we get closer. That's probably well understood.
That said, as the majority of new information and opinions
and analysis comes in, that's when the big moves happen,
and now is when I want to be in front
of it. A couple of spots you and I have
already mentioned in our episodes. We're seeing small moves. Guys,
(01:53):
I'm a full round higher on or lower than that,
are just starting to shimmy in shake. And I've already
put together a couple of teams. I really like that.
I'm not so sure I'm gonna be able to assemble
a month from now. How about yourself.
Speaker 3 (02:05):
Yeah, it's a good point.
Speaker 1 (02:07):
Like if you are convicted and you're quick enough on
your feet, right, you got to absolve or absorb all
this information right away. It's like, Okay, I'm locked into this.
This is how I really truly feel. Then now is
the time to take advantage, because you're right. Eventually consensus
gets everybody, and then the ADP's are going to start
to rise and fall, and you're not gonna be able
to get to find those nice little steals. It's like
(02:29):
when you have a restaurant in your neighborhood that only
you kind of know about right away and you just
love it. You go their time and time again, and
it's never busy, and then word gets around this is
a really nice restaurant.
Speaker 3 (02:40):
Let's go ahead and flood it.
Speaker 1 (02:42):
So this poor guy has to wait extra hour every
time he goes there.
Speaker 3 (02:46):
It's the same principle, John.
Speaker 2 (02:48):
And you know what the unfortunate endpoint of that is
everybody suffers, the product itself suffers. Generally, the price is
also suffer, which is you know, me being a nefarious
sheep's gate ah right to my happiness. So I got it.
You did us a really nice job of setting up
some statistics that jumped off the page. You came up
with some player level ones. I have more macro level ones,
(03:11):
but they're all going to relate to fantasy. I want
to dive into us first generally because I just think
I like them better. So it starts with Devanta Adams
on the Raiders. Check this out. Became the second past
catcher in NFL history to score fourteen touchdowns without notching
at least eight hundred yards. You put nearly one quarter
of his catches were for touchdowns. That is outrageous. So
(03:34):
this was your stat talking to me about Adams? What
you think if we're too high or were too low?
Let me just give the starting point would be ADP
fifty two next to Tyry McLaurin, DJ Moore and Roman
Doones for some perspective.
Speaker 1 (03:48):
Yeah, crazy sixty receptions, seven hundred and eighty nine yards,
fourteen touchdowns for Devonte last year. By the way, John,
can you guess what the only other player was to
do that in NFL history?
Speaker 2 (03:59):
Will?
Speaker 1 (04:00):
I'll give you a hint because there's a lot of
names to go through, but these guys were at one
point's teammates with each other.
Speaker 3 (04:07):
Do you know who the other guy was?
Speaker 2 (04:09):
No, that that threw me off. The name I was
thinking was like a Fits. Maybe Fits was too much volume.
I was trying to think of tight like end zone domination.
You have to give it to me.
Speaker 3 (04:21):
Yeah, this was I did not expect this. It was
James Jones in.
Speaker 1 (04:25):
Twenty really the only other guy to get at least
fourteen touchdowns. Fourteen touchdowns no figure for that guy. But
if we're talking about this in terms of what to
look for this year, and you mentioned DeVante's ADP, there
is a point where it's still okay if you still
think that at thirty four years old he can be
(04:45):
the dominant guy in the end zone. I just don't
know that I'm there with that right. Twenty five percent
of his catches go for touchdowns. Boy, with Matt Stafford
throwing the ball in a Sean McVay offense, I won't
rule it out, but I'm also not very confident in that.
And especially if we think that, you know, them drafting
(05:08):
a quarterback in round one is an omen of anything
for Matt Stafford, then I really get nervous for DeVante Adams.
So yeah, at a point, fine, it depends on who
he's going near. Do you happen to have some names
of who he's in the business?
Speaker 2 (05:21):
Did those two a few that that was? It was
Turn McLaurin, DJ Moore, Roman Doonsay. Oh, yeah, like one
of those.
Speaker 3 (05:29):
I'd rather have DeVante over McLaurin for sure.
Speaker 1 (05:32):
Okay, I think I'm I'm coming around on DJ Moore
enough to say, like, hey, they they traded for him,
they have a vision for him. He should be the
de fact a wide receiver one I'll get in on
DJ Moore. Romo Dunza still scares me, as does Luther
Burden if I'm being honest. Uh so, I I think
I was still gol O Dunsay over DeVante, though, would you.
Speaker 2 (05:53):
That's the one name of those three I'm probably not.
McLaurin is my coin flip. DJ Moore, you might be
able to sell me on because I think that might
be a little more there where. When you mentioned Adams
his age, the way he's so heavily tied to Stafford
and his age, I was trying to look for the
bull case because I'm with you it very much is
(06:14):
price dependent fifty two fields. I'm going, yeah, I'm thinking
about it, but I'm not into it yet. I'm not
running to smash the button. I think ten picks in
either direction makes the decision for me. If he moves
up ten picks, this is DeVonta Adams I'm out if
he moves back another ten or past pick sixty where
you're not really relying on him to carry your fantasy
(06:37):
roster as much as be a floor. I think you
could do that. Check this out. Last year, not another
single wide receiver had over twelve tds. To give you
an idea, how Varin is at only five scored double
digit touchdowns. That was past catchers, including tight ends. All
of them are top twenty five picks except for Dallas Goddard.
(06:57):
Now these are red zone stats. Davanta Adams had thirty
percent of the team target chair thirty seven percent target
the right run, which is crazy. However, thirteen catches for
twelve touchdowns, you know it took him thirty one targets
to get there. And that, my friend, maybe the more
unbelievable part of this. I think when presented, most people
(07:21):
imagine it was way more efficient than that. That's not efficient.
Speaker 3 (07:26):
At all, No at all.
Speaker 2 (07:28):
So there is a really good chance, even presented these
opportunities again, the number itself, the total would just be
a little bit lower. So I think I'm with you
and a little worried about Adams. The next one takes
us out to Arizona. Jacoby Brissett, a little legendary run,
averaged more than forty pass attenth per game in his
(07:49):
twelve starts, and for some perspective, Sam Donald right on
a winning team, right Arizona a losing team. I think
he might have won one of those starts, one in Dallas,
which of course was the what whatever, football is so funny,
but that was it. All the other Kings losses, so
of course in a game in a sport predicated on victory,
(08:10):
shaped the Arizona Cordals when I did nothing behind set
there looks like we're gonna get a heaping helping of
Bresset again. Yeah, what do you think talk to me about?
I guess volume what you think is gonna happen there
where you are in fantasy. I can't believe they didn't
bring into QB.
Speaker 1 (08:25):
I mean, I just don't understand the offseason moves. And
I know we've talked about it a little bit before,
but when you're saying that we're gonna draft Carson Beck
and we're gonna bring in Gardner Minshew and call it done,
that's absurd. That's absolutely absurd. After moving on from Kyler
and I wanted to highlight the Jacoby Presset forty pass
attempts thing, because even the guy who led the NFL
(08:48):
in total pass attempts last year, which was bo Nix,
had over six hundred, still only average thirty six per game.
This is so outrageously unusual, and there's a lot of factors. Yes,
they were losing games constantly, so they had to keep
chucking it, but also their backfield was completely decimated. That's
been fixed with the addition of Jeremiah Love, So all
(09:11):
of that should come down so drastically that if you
were going to be investing in Michael Wilson or Marv Harrison,
I will abstain Trey McBride from this conversation because I
don't think that it applies as much to him. But
if you're investing in those other pieces, just be so cautious,
like John, what would it take, I guess for you
to be confident in Michael Wilson given this info.
Speaker 2 (09:35):
Probably an injury at Marvin Harrison. The team has shown
a dedication to him, and I guess you should pedigree
draft capital. He's produced a little bit. But what with
what you got from Wilson talk about a sun run
that was an unbelievable It was Jerry Rice's stuff, which
is kind of crazy. But again, all that he's also
tied to the volume, which is tied to the pace
(09:57):
of play, which is tied to that lack of a
run game. All of those things, well, at least we
think they've corrected. I would imagine, at the very least,
we don't know how it's gonna shakeout, meaning the running
back load, but you would imagine there's gonna be a
bit more of a focus on the run game because
volume is really key here. Now Brissette is going, my gosh,
(10:19):
he's going outside pick one seventy right now, which is
next to our friend Fernando Mendoza, who we don't I
mean we think he's gonna start. We don't know who's
gonna start. I would take the starter, or even if
I'm unsure of the volume, for what it's worth. Present
in that run for week six on, he was the
QB eight and Fantasy points per game, number one in dropbacks,
(10:41):
like you mentioned, number two in passing yards, number three
in touchdowns. He had nine straight QB ones. However, and
this is the point that I wanted to make about
not to say you can't draft them, but you should
not pay a premium because the volume gets you the floor.
Jake nine straight QB ones. However, there was only a
single top five performance and it was a number four.
(11:03):
So without running, which is always gonna be the skeleton
key to getting into the top side and fantasy. I
think we have to pump the brace on Jacoby, but
it's baked into the price. So feature QB two or
three in Best Ball Redraft at all, I think that's fine.
The next stat is tight ends. I talk too much.
Fifty seven different tight ends registered at least one tight
end one week in PPR, which is nuts. Take it away,
(11:25):
talk this about tight ends, what it means going forward?
Speaker 1 (11:27):
Fifty seven different tight ends. I just had to repeat
it because.
Speaker 2 (11:33):
I think that's so crazy.
Speaker 3 (11:35):
I expect it.
Speaker 1 (11:37):
Like at running back, I understand because there's so many backups,
you have to start two running backs, and like for
fantasy purposes, Okay, it's not as wild of a stat
tight ends. We're only starting one. In most leagues, you're
only starting one tight end. You're only drafting one, maybe
two tight ends if you like to have a backup.
So this really reinforces something we've talked about before John,
(12:00):
which is in drafts, I'm going early, really early at
tight ends, like the top three guys, right, give me
Trey McBride, give me Brock Bauers, or I'm waiting until
the very end of my drafts to get one of
these guys who if you stream.
Speaker 3 (12:15):
Correctly, you know, change it up every week.
Speaker 1 (12:17):
If you got to pick somebody off of waivers, if
you can pick out who's going to get the top
twelve finished that week, you're in a way better position
than if you wasted your draft capital on a guy
in round six who's just kind of there and he's fine,
and he has a couple of these top twelve finishes,
but it wasn't worth it.
Speaker 3 (12:36):
So I don't know.
Speaker 1 (12:37):
We talk a lot about these late round sleepers, and
this just really got my head attuned to that, because
there are some wild names on this list too, Like
I didn't expect gunner Helm to have multiple top twelve weeks,
but he somehow did last year. So I don't know,
does this reinforce that for you or does this not
really say anything.
Speaker 2 (12:55):
Yeah, i'd mentioned working on those ranks and where I
thought i'd be dish agreeing with you about the top end.
I already let my cat out of the bag in
earlier episodes that the way it look like it was
shaping up. There's so many late tight ends that I
think could break into that conversation. Even though I don't
think any of them will catch Trey McBride, I do
think the one v one is worth it to wait
(13:17):
on the tight end. I don't think you're gonna find
that wide receiver one in the very last round where
you're getting again like Gunner Helm. There's a lot of
these guys that we mentioned. However, when I was doing
my ranks, you get into that second or third round
and it's hard not to take the ceiling plus the
floor of guys like Bowers or McBride, which I'm glad
(13:39):
you mentioned. He really feels very much right invulnerable to
almost anything. Right he's been through. He's been through a
lot as a fantasy player, and it always seems to
rise to the top. So yeah, with you, it is
okay to draft the elite players. I would not overpay
(14:01):
for them. I think you should be looking for them
to fall to you, even if it only means two
or three draft slots. That's okay. Other than that i'd
be looking to backfill. One thing. We also didn't mention
when there's a lot of tight ends or anything in
the onesie positions, Jake, people that spent draft capital. They
don't want to drop and churn those guys. So there's
even more supply and less demand on the wave wire.
(14:24):
All right, let's get into mine. I didn't really set
you up as well as you set me up. I
just wrote to you Stacy's terrible run production. It was
just insane. They were dead last in twenty yard runs.
Can you believe the Chiefs finished an entire season with
only three twenty yard runs. They were also dead last
(14:46):
in explosive run rate that was at five percent. However,
but butt butt, the big shaken butt as always, my friend.
They were top ten in yards before contact per rush,
which is generally thought of as the offensive line slash
schematic part of the statistical realm. So to me, that
(15:06):
feels like it even bigger wheels up For a guy
like Ken Walker, I think they're going to be looking
at lean into him, maybe without mahomes early on, or
even as you get him, and maybe he's not running
as much a player that I think I have him
way above market. Now, I know that's hard where he's
going so early, but I have him way above market.
(15:27):
I think he should be going in the second round.
I think there's a case for Ken Walker, as you know,
a late first round pick. So talk to me about
the turnaround that I think I might be seeing in
the Kansas City run game, which again is less forty
chess with kW three back there.
Speaker 1 (15:42):
Yeah, I'm glad you mentioned not only Patrick Mahomes potentially
missing games because of his injury, but what he's going
to be when he comes back, which, by the way,
you know, since we're on the subject in drafts, one
of my favorite things to do lately has been to
actually pair Patrick Mahomes with justin fields because you're getting
him so late in drafts. Any other year Patrick Mahomes
(16:05):
is I don't draft him because I don't draft quarterbacks early,
and he goes to early.
Speaker 3 (16:08):
This is the exception.
Speaker 1 (16:10):
Now, with that said, Patrick Mahomes should be fine still
when he comes back, but I don't expect him to
scramble nearly as much. I don't expect him to be
looking for that. The plays that they draw probably are
not going to even give that much flexibility at least
early on, so I think we'll see tons of Kenneth Walker.
I think another underrated aspect to this which should improve
(16:30):
those stats is bringing back Eric b Enemy as the
offensive coordinator. The offense is with and without him, going
back to what was it twenty twenty one or whatever,
it was compared to the last couple of years, so
drastically different, so much less explosive, so much less reliable
on a play to play basis. So I definitely am
(16:50):
on board with Kenneth Walker if he's there in the
second round, I have zero bones taking him because his
ADP is going to be close to another guy that
would just talk about, Jeremiah Love. I think when all
things are considered, because Love's ADP is going to keep rising.
It's what happens with rookies. And I want Kenneth Walker
one hundred times out of one hundred over Jeremiah Love.
Speaker 2 (17:12):
Yeah, me too. One other point that I wanted to
bring up, it's a rake that I stepped on myself
last year. I mean as a Jets fan, but it
really wasn't so much a laundry bro kind of thing,
and it was worrying about it was Breece hole, but
worrying about running back production in the passing game with
Justin Fields under center. That and there's not much good
(17:35):
to say about Justin Field's play last year for the Jets,
But one thing that did advance was his ability in
the RPO game, his ability to understand when maybe getting
the ball in a high percentage shovel pass to a
running back is a more effective play than trying to
tuck and run. And you know, Fields as exciting as
(17:57):
he can be, content to get happy feet and try
and break a million tackles. Sometimes he'll turn his back
on the defensive line, which you never really want to
be doing. So if we see that element, something else
you and I alluded to in another episode was Walker
showed that he could catch the ball. So you might
have a Justin Fields more willing to throw it to
a running back with a Ken Walker more able to
(18:19):
catch the ball than maybe people have given a credit for.
And this could be a perfect storm. I love that
Fields call out. I might love the Fields call out
even without Mahomes. Remember, there could be setbacks, there could
be problems. He's also a warrior. He could push the
reinjury and it Fields maybe figures it out. Also, you're
much more likely to figure it out whatever that it
(18:39):
is in Kansas City than you are in New York.
I don't even care what it is everything. You're just
more likely to do it whatever it is, providing it
is good. All right next time?
Speaker 3 (18:46):
For sure?
Speaker 2 (18:47):
Oh yes, absolutely absolutely? You know what yea Farnie The
Midwest got me into dry barbecue. I didn't really know
that was a thing where everything up here is very
much a wet barbecue. Alexim Yeah, I like some drive.
Well it's not the worst. I don't hate it, but man,
there's something to dry barbecue with good sauce on the side. Anyway,
we'll table that all right again. I didn't do you
(19:09):
many favors, my friend. I hoped I figured you would
pick up where I was going with this. I put
Las Vegas terrible run blocking Man, what an outline? Or
maybe I have another profession waiting for me. I was
hoping that you pick up on what it means for
Ashton Genty, I wrote, must read your spreadsheet. It's worse
(19:30):
than bad. So that just meant that there were so
many there were so many bad stats. I couldn't even
I couldn't even put them all. It's just atrocious. The
Raiders were objectively the worst running team. They had a
negative point twenty one ep per rush. Jake, I'm not
gonna put you on the spot. The second worst were
the Scents at point twelve, so were almost twice as
(19:50):
bad as the next worst team on a per snap basis.
That's objectively, and then they were worse than everything else.
Y'ad's before contact perrush keep that in mind. Rush success rate,
keep that in mind. I mean dead lasted anything five
twenty yard rushes. However, they were in the top ten
yards after contact per rush. They went out made a
(20:10):
big splash in free agency, they bringing in Tyler Linderbaum.
If you're going to bring in a Pro Bowl center
to go with what I think is a very good
left tackle in Colton Miller when he's happy, in fact
as a prop better, his playtime was very much tied
to Gent's success. I think we could be seeing maybe
(20:31):
a little bit of efficiency to go to that volume
that we're really worried about. Long story, really long. Maybe
I like Ashton genty at twelve to go with my
Keen Walker as that one to two back end pick,
like at to turn man you could make a major
splash with gent and Walker, two guys that could finish
his top five backs overall. I don't know if you
(20:53):
were on gent So answer that for us first, please Jake,
and then where you stand on maybe Gentin even the Raiders.
Speaker 1 (21:00):
Well, I mean, Genty showed last year what I think
his absolute floor is, because you don't come in as
a prospect like that and do that well on an
offense that is that poorly constructed without being really great.
So I do think Ashton Genty it could have only
gone up. I like that they at least tried to
(21:21):
fix the offensive line. I'm never gonna be somebody who says, hey,
look they brought in this guy, they drafted this guy,
it should all be better, because there's so many things
that have to happen for an offensive line to actually.
Speaker 3 (21:33):
Gel and be good together.
Speaker 1 (21:35):
But if you're at least taking the steps to do that,
I'll give you some bumps up right, Like I will
give Ashton Genty and that offensive line the benefit of
the doubt and say they're not going to be dead last.
Maybe they'll be twenty fifth, twenty fourth. That's fine because
Ashton Genty will benefit from that. He gets minimal competition
brought in. They ad Mike Washington, which I am bummed about.
(21:58):
I wanted him to go somewhere the lead guy. He'll
siphon some touches, but it's not it's gonna be the
Ashton Genti show. So yeah, I'm interested. I don't think
I would draft him as high as you if I
already have somebody like Kenneth Walker, because I like to
get a stud running back and then kind of fade in,
you know, let the other positions take over for a bit.
Speaker 3 (22:17):
But it's interesting.
Speaker 2 (22:19):
Okay, So that sounds like it puts you with Okay,
so one running back of the turn. I've avoided putting
you on the spot because I knew I had this
in my mind. You're gonna help me with my own
ranks by ranking those three running backs that I mentioned,
the three running backs that I think are the most
attractive at the turn. You're likely gonna have a crack
(22:39):
at all three of them, maybe two of them at
the turn. But give me one if you want a
more balanced build, which all of us think is a
very good plan for fantasy. That would be Ashton Jenny,
who we just mentioned. It'll be Ken Walker, who we
just mentioned, but also devon Ah Chanta is the other
player there that has shown real skill, talent, workload through
volume and explosives both between the tackles, right, He's not
(23:03):
really just a gimmicky kind of runner. So this is
where I've struggled. Could you rank those three right? If
you had to take one? Does one stand out? Don't
give us just who's the cheapest rankum?
Speaker 1 (23:12):
For us, it's Walker, h Chan and then Genty For me,
the thing that keeps Chan from being at the top,
by the way, is just the regime change of it all.
It's a completely different It's not just a new quarterback,
it's an entirely new system coming in with him as well.
I would like to say that they will just continue
to feed him. We never know that they have strong
preferences with how they want to employ a run game
(23:34):
sometimes and maybe Jalen Wright or Ali Gordon or something
you know, lurches into that workload just a little bit more.
But it's Kenneth Walker for me. I think he has
the highest ceiling and floor of those three.
Speaker 2 (23:47):
So the most interesting part of that for those of you,
unlike myself, buried in the spreadsheets all the time. That's
in reverse order of ADP. So right there we were
talking about timing of drafts. We don't know if that's
how it's going to shake out. We may get to
a point where the market agrees with you and I
(24:07):
that Walker should jump Barkley at fourteen, make it closer
to the turn, and maybe Genti has to slide back
behind Hn, which again would would make a lot of
sense personally. Again for me, Walker is the big jewel here.
It's the environment that I want to be attached to
the most when it counts. Again, that's the assumption that
(24:28):
Mahomes will get healthy for the double digit weeks, where
just keep that fantasy squad and contention right, it's about
how you finish, not how you start. Now, the next one,
I kept the poor outline and going I put Jets
terrible pass stats, hoping that you would pick up that
this is going to be something to do with Gino. Again.
The Jets were just It was the worst thing ever.
(24:48):
It was one of the worst iterations of Justin Field's
in a bad environment, which I don't believe he can thrive,
and I think he could be a good player if
guided properly. And they know how to maxim his strengths
and not emphasize his weaknesses. The Jets, of course, did
all the wrong things as expected. I mean, this is
just crazy. Yeah, some of these numbers Jake on a
(25:11):
season long basis are just kind of hard to swallow,
just as an analyst. Below one hundred and sixty five
pass yards a game, five point six yards per attempt,
single digit yards per completion, under seven air yards per attempt,
just twenty seven twenty yard completions the entire season, just
four and a half yards after the catch, and just
(25:35):
fifteen passing touchdowns. Hard to be worse than the Jets were.
They go and you know, reunited, and it feels so good.
I think Geno Smith is back in the saddle, and
though he is a professional quarterback, notice the inflection. This
was the worst we saw of him in a very
(25:58):
long time, maybe ever, Gino, I don't know what happened.
The picks were just out of control. For all the
other stuff that looked okay. Single digitwalf target rate, you know,
not terrible. H thirty three first down per attempt is
not terrible. Four percent TD per attempt not terrible. Seventeen
pick shake he was atrocious. I mean, this is Geno
enough to correct the Jets woes.
Speaker 1 (26:20):
We got to give him some credit, right, We were
just talking about how terrible that offensive line was with
the Raiders. It probably forced him to try to be
the hero when he shouldn't have been, and he didn't
have a nice system to thrive him.
Speaker 3 (26:33):
Like Seattle, I would argue, at.
Speaker 1 (26:35):
Least the Jets are minimally, minimally better than what he
was dealing with last year in Vegas. And I want
to be very, very pointed about this.
Speaker 4 (26:47):
Garrett Wilson is so underrated because he finally gets to
play with who I think is the most competent quarterback
of his career, Aaron Rodgers.
Speaker 1 (26:58):
That year, he was coming up off of burst achilles injury.
So I'm gonna go ahead and kind of wipe that out.
But in general, I do think that Geno Smith can
fix some of the things. You just need a guy
who is just okay. He just has to maintain a
level of okayness for the sake and sanity of that group.
So I think Garrett Wilson, bris Hall, those guys are
(27:20):
gonna be fine. I don't know about the rookies. We've
talked about them a little bit. Maybe he can help
get them some fantasy goodness as well, but I'm mostly
fixated on those two core players. I'm probably I mean,
I'm not probably not going to I'm not going to
draft Geno Smith anywhere, but I want him to help
the other pieces thrive.
Speaker 2 (27:39):
I hate that I have to see this, but I
love the Garrett Wilson play so much on its face
because I think objectively you could quantify that's a great pick.
I picked forty where he's going. I already loved Adinai
Mitchell as a stylistic match for Gino, who likes to
throw deep outside the numbers. When Mitchell is shown to
kind of be a bona fide star, he's probably was
(28:00):
always between the ears, it wasn't in the pads. So
once you like two wide receivers and a last round quarterback,
you're kind of into the stack. The fact though, so
here I am the Jets fan going to be drafting
the Jets. I think the price just makes all viable.
You don't have to overpay for any of it, so
I think we get with it. We have a little
(28:20):
bit of time. I want to circle back to your
last one that I kind of missed, and it was
a mecca at Buka. Who's going to be really a
point of contention. So your stat was at Buka had
fifty eight percent catchable target rate, wool Man, that was
one hundred and thirteenth among receivers who ran at least
two hundred routes. That's a nice solid compliment of playing
(28:40):
time right there, only eight at a worse rate. So
that's all really terrible. Talk to me where you're going
with this, because this could be a regression argument in
either direction. Where do you stand on Nigbuka Jig.
Speaker 1 (28:52):
I have become enamored with a Mecca Abuka, with drafting him,
with trading for him in Dynasty. I want as much
of a Bukah as I can get right now, because
that stat to me said a couple of things.
Speaker 3 (29:04):
One is that they really missed.
Speaker 1 (29:06):
Having healthy Mike Evans and healthy Chris Godwin, guys who
could help distribute these things for Baker. But the other
is that there kind of is nowhere to go for
him but up in terms of pass catching quality, in
terms of the quality of the targets that he's gonna get.
I would argue that the ceiling play for Abuka looks
a lot like the JSN trajectory. These guys were both
(29:28):
drafted into teams where it's like, hey, the depth chart's rough.
Speaker 3 (29:33):
You know, there's guys ahead of him. I don't really
love that.
Speaker 1 (29:36):
And then it thins out and they get to show
more of what they're capable of. I'm not saying that
Abukah is gonna come out and be the wide receiver
two this year, but I'm not saying that it's impossible
because I do believe in the talent for him. I
still think that Baker is a quality quarterback, at least
for fantasy purposes, and I think that some shifting of
the offensive scheme and just having dudes there who are
(29:58):
actually healthy the whole time time is going to help
the offense a lot. So I'm drafting him in Redraft
and Best Ball, and you betcha I'm trading for him
in Dynasty.
Speaker 2 (30:09):
Yeah. I love that too. In fact, as we talk
through today's topics, I always like to think how strategies
pair together, because we want to give out advice that
we can help ourselves with but also help any listeners.
And when I mentioned too, running backs at the turn
which I don't think is out of pocket. You could
do it, but you need a good wide receiver plan
(30:30):
and man Garrett Wilson and in Mecca Agbuka both going
between pick thirty eight and forty, which you know again
I like to, like I said, think in real pragmatic terms,
if you could get those two running backs at the
first turn, thirty eight and forty are both after number
thirty six, which would put you in a spot Jake
(30:54):
to then double tap Garrett Wilson and Agbuka. Now, I
guess there's a little bit of systemic risk, a little bit.
Let me do my Buka thing. What I saw, what
I wrote is what we remember, meaning fantasy hanks five
catches for sixty eight yards and zero touchdowns in the
last three games of the season combined. I made sure
(31:16):
to put a little yuck emoji. Okay, Then I wrote
what I want to remember, which was weeks four through
fourteen without Mike Evans, who has moved on to sunnier pastures.
At Buka was the overall wide receiver twenty four. Mind you,
this is an a rookie campaign. You know. In his
fourth career game, he was fifth in the league in
(31:37):
that timeframe in WOPPER, which is weighted opportunity rating. It's
a combination if anyone's interested in this combination of team target,
team air, but there's also like an efficiency, like a
value assigned to it, meaning end zone targets are worth more.
So the operating was to the roof twenty eight percent
(31:58):
of the team target chair forty four percent of the
teen air yards and included with that, because you know,
I like to look for specialty targets, Jake, My favorite
two types of targets because they're worth the most are
slot targets and end zone targets. In that frame, three
slot targets per game more than three quarters of an
end zone target per game. So at Buka like very
(32:19):
much not only a firm part of the game plan,
he is a versatile part of the game plan, which
I don't hate to be like. I think is important.
We know it's important. I've been writing about this stuff.
I have articles about this stuff coming out of my
nose at this point. That the reason you want guys
like CD Lamb where they elevate, because they could work
(32:40):
in and out of the slot and suck up some
of those volume targets when you're down low, So I'm
with you all the way on Abuka. Before we go,
we could forget my last mins of Titans. Don't want
to talk about that. I want to ask you your
response to that, Like you seemed pretty much set on
a balanced approach wide receiver running back early, which I get.
(33:00):
Could you see these later wide receiver ones convincing you
to double tap early running backs which have been foundational
winning pieces the last couple of years.
Speaker 1 (33:09):
Yeah, it's gotten harder with wide receivers and my estimation
to bank on guys later, and that has become the
trick of finding guys that not only are consistent, but
are even easy to pick for streamers. The streaming market
for wide receivers has gotten kind of gross, admittedly, so
I'm more inclined to get my wide receiver position shored
(33:31):
up as soon as possible. So it's not that I
won't double tap running backs early on. It's just like
you alluded to, though, I'd better have a really good
plan after that if I'm going to be doing it.
So if these ADPs stick around like this, I would
feel very confident with those two types of wide receivers
leading off my depth chart, not everybody's going to feel
that way, and then I'm sure I could find somebody
(33:54):
going a little bit later who i'd feel confident into.
Speaker 2 (33:57):
Yeah, I'm with you. I think the key to all
of this is understanding the percentage of your draft capital.
So I should have really been clear because it should
go without saying, but it doesn't. When you take two
running backs in the first two rounds, you're banking on
those players being winning picks. And I'm not saying you're
not taking anyone else, but you should not absolutely not
(34:20):
be taking another running back unless it's a flex later
later on, and then you look in a handcuff and
fill in because of what you said. Yeah, we have
confidence that Garrett Wilson and a book are gonna be
great picks, but you wanna still be backfilling that wide
receiver position looking to hit late. Jake, that was awesome
as always. I really appreciate the back and forth and
your time with us. If I had more time, I
(34:41):
would take it up. And you almost had to be
singing the whole New World when we opened, but I
think that'll probably wait un till next week. So from
Big John Lagaza and mister Jake Trobridge, everyone have a
wonderful week. We love you much well, Joya and we'll
see it the next off season episode of a fantasy
football weekly. No no, no
Time now for Fantasy Football Weekly from iHeartRadio, your weekly
source for the nation's best fantasy speculation and advice.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
Welcome back to the newest edition of Fantasy Football Weekly
with your faithful narrator and host, mister John mccayz. Are
here with my good friend and yours, Jake Trowbridge. Jake,
the draft is in the books and the chaos is ensuing.
Let's go. We've been talking about this moment. It happened
so fast, and I've already been in a couple draft lobbies.
(00:32):
I'm polishing up my first set of rankings for publishing.
You know, you like to get him out there and
battle test him first. How are you doing in this
new post draft environment, my friends, A whole new world.
Speaker 1 (00:44):
I don't even recognize what I see when I look
around anymore. No, I've been deep in the rookie drafts
for sure. I've locked up four dynasty rookie drafts. I
just have a couple that are still in the wings.
How do you feel, by the way, about drafting immediately
after the draft for your dynasty leagues versus waiting a
bit letting things kind of settle.
Speaker 2 (01:05):
My off season flavor is more best bawl than dynasty.
But I think the answer is the same. I want
this is when I want to be aggressive, because I
think now is the best chance to take advantage of
priors before the new wisdom of the crowd comes in football,
now that it's going year round. While it is technically around,
(01:29):
the vast majority of the work and real serious work
I think happens as we get closer. That's probably well understood.
That said, as the majority of new information and opinions
and analysis comes in, that's when the big moves happen,
and now is when I want to be in front
of it. A couple of spots you and I have
already mentioned in our episodes. We're seeing small moves. Guys,
(01:53):
I'm a full round higher on or lower than that,
are just starting to shimmy in shake. And I've already
put together a couple of teams. I really like that.
I'm not so sure I'm gonna be able to assemble
a month from now. How about yourself.
Speaker 3 (02:05):
Yeah, it's a good point.
Speaker 1 (02:07):
Like if you are convicted and you're quick enough on
your feet, right, you got to absolve or absorb all
this information right away. It's like, Okay, I'm locked into this.
This is how I really truly feel. Then now is
the time to take advantage, because you're right. Eventually consensus
gets everybody, and then the ADP's are going to start
to rise and fall, and you're not gonna be able
to get to find those nice little steals. It's like
(02:29):
when you have a restaurant in your neighborhood that only
you kind of know about right away and you just
love it. You go their time and time again, and
it's never busy, and then word gets around this is
a really nice restaurant.
Speaker 3 (02:40):
Let's go ahead and flood it.
Speaker 1 (02:42):
So this poor guy has to wait extra hour every
time he goes there.
Speaker 3 (02:46):
It's the same principle, John.
Speaker 2 (02:48):
And you know what the unfortunate endpoint of that is
everybody suffers, the product itself suffers. Generally, the price is
also suffer, which is you know, me being a nefarious
sheep's gate ah right to my happiness. So I got it.
You did us a really nice job of setting up
some statistics that jumped off the page. You came up
with some player level ones. I have more macro level ones,
(03:11):
but they're all going to relate to fantasy. I want
to dive into us first generally because I just think
I like them better. So it starts with Devanta Adams
on the Raiders. Check this out. Became the second past
catcher in NFL history to score fourteen touchdowns without notching
at least eight hundred yards. You put nearly one quarter
of his catches were for touchdowns. That is outrageous. So
(03:34):
this was your stat talking to me about Adams? What
you think if we're too high or were too low?
Let me just give the starting point would be ADP
fifty two next to Tyry McLaurin, DJ Moore and Roman
Doones for some perspective.
Speaker 1 (03:48):
Yeah, crazy sixty receptions, seven hundred and eighty nine yards,
fourteen touchdowns for Devonte last year. By the way, John,
can you guess what the only other player was to
do that in NFL history?
Speaker 2 (03:59):
Will?
Speaker 1 (04:00):
I'll give you a hint because there's a lot of
names to go through, but these guys were at one
point's teammates with each other.
Speaker 3 (04:07):
Do you know who the other guy was?
Speaker 2 (04:09):
No, that that threw me off. The name I was
thinking was like a Fits. Maybe Fits was too much volume.
I was trying to think of tight like end zone domination.
You have to give it to me.
Speaker 3 (04:21):
Yeah, this was I did not expect this. It was
James Jones in.
Speaker 1 (04:25):
Twenty really the only other guy to get at least
fourteen touchdowns. Fourteen touchdowns no figure for that guy. But
if we're talking about this in terms of what to
look for this year, and you mentioned DeVante's ADP, there
is a point where it's still okay if you still
think that at thirty four years old he can be
(04:45):
the dominant guy in the end zone. I just don't
know that I'm there with that right. Twenty five percent
of his catches go for touchdowns. Boy, with Matt Stafford
throwing the ball in a Sean McVay offense, I won't
rule it out, but I'm also not very confident in that.
And especially if we think that, you know, them drafting
(05:08):
a quarterback in round one is an omen of anything
for Matt Stafford, then I really get nervous for DeVante Adams.
So yeah, at a point, fine, it depends on who
he's going near. Do you happen to have some names
of who he's in the business?
Speaker 2 (05:21):
Did those two a few that that was? It was
Turn McLaurin, DJ Moore, Roman Doonsay. Oh, yeah, like one
of those.
Speaker 3 (05:29):
I'd rather have DeVante over McLaurin for sure.
Speaker 1 (05:32):
Okay, I think I'm I'm coming around on DJ Moore
enough to say, like, hey, they they traded for him,
they have a vision for him. He should be the
de fact a wide receiver one I'll get in on
DJ Moore. Romo Dunza still scares me, as does Luther
Burden if I'm being honest. Uh so, I I think
I was still gol O Dunsay over DeVante, though, would you.
Speaker 2 (05:53):
That's the one name of those three I'm probably not.
McLaurin is my coin flip. DJ Moore, you might be
able to sell me on because I think that might
be a little more there where. When you mentioned Adams
his age, the way he's so heavily tied to Stafford
and his age, I was trying to look for the
bull case because I'm with you it very much is
(06:14):
price dependent fifty two fields. I'm going, yeah, I'm thinking
about it, but I'm not into it yet. I'm not
running to smash the button. I think ten picks in
either direction makes the decision for me. If he moves
up ten picks, this is DeVonta Adams I'm out if
he moves back another ten or past pick sixty where
you're not really relying on him to carry your fantasy
(06:37):
roster as much as be a floor. I think you
could do that. Check this out. Last year, not another
single wide receiver had over twelve tds. To give you
an idea, how Varin is at only five scored double
digit touchdowns. That was past catchers, including tight ends. All
of them are top twenty five picks except for Dallas Goddard.
(06:57):
Now these are red zone stats. Davanta Adams had thirty
percent of the team target chair thirty seven percent target
the right run, which is crazy. However, thirteen catches for
twelve touchdowns, you know it took him thirty one targets
to get there. And that, my friend, maybe the more
unbelievable part of this. I think when presented, most people
(07:21):
imagine it was way more efficient than that. That's not efficient.
Speaker 3 (07:26):
At all, No at all.
Speaker 2 (07:28):
So there is a really good chance, even presented these
opportunities again, the number itself, the total would just be
a little bit lower. So I think I'm with you
and a little worried about Adams. The next one takes
us out to Arizona. Jacoby Brissett, a little legendary run,
averaged more than forty pass attenth per game in his
(07:49):
twelve starts, and for some perspective, Sam Donald right on
a winning team, right Arizona a losing team. I think
he might have won one of those starts, one in Dallas,
which of course was the what whatever, football is so funny,
but that was it. All the other Kings losses, so
of course in a game in a sport predicated on victory,
(08:10):
shaped the Arizona Cordals when I did nothing behind set
there looks like we're gonna get a heaping helping of
Bresset again. Yeah, what do you think talk to me about?
I guess volume what you think is gonna happen there
where you are in fantasy. I can't believe they didn't
bring into QB.
Speaker 1 (08:25):
I mean, I just don't understand the offseason moves. And
I know we've talked about it a little bit before,
but when you're saying that we're gonna draft Carson Beck
and we're gonna bring in Gardner Minshew and call it done,
that's absurd. That's absolutely absurd. After moving on from Kyler
and I wanted to highlight the Jacoby Presset forty pass
attempts thing, because even the guy who led the NFL
(08:48):
in total pass attempts last year, which was bo Nix,
had over six hundred, still only average thirty six per game.
This is so outrageously unusual, and there's a lot of factors. Yes,
they were losing games constantly, so they had to keep
chucking it, but also their backfield was completely decimated. That's
been fixed with the addition of Jeremiah Love, So all
(09:11):
of that should come down so drastically that if you
were going to be investing in Michael Wilson or Marv Harrison,
I will abstain Trey McBride from this conversation because I
don't think that it applies as much to him. But
if you're investing in those other pieces, just be so cautious,
like John, what would it take, I guess for you
to be confident in Michael Wilson given this info.
Speaker 2 (09:35):
Probably an injury at Marvin Harrison. The team has shown
a dedication to him, and I guess you should pedigree
draft capital. He's produced a little bit. But what with
what you got from Wilson talk about a sun run
that was an unbelievable It was Jerry Rice's stuff, which
is kind of crazy. But again, all that he's also
tied to the volume, which is tied to the pace
(09:57):
of play, which is tied to that lack of a
run game. All of those things, well, at least we
think they've corrected. I would imagine, at the very least,
we don't know how it's gonna shakeout, meaning the running
back load, but you would imagine there's gonna be a
bit more of a focus on the run game because
volume is really key here. Now Brissette is going, my gosh,
(10:19):
he's going outside pick one seventy right now, which is
next to our friend Fernando Mendoza, who we don't I
mean we think he's gonna start. We don't know who's
gonna start. I would take the starter, or even if
I'm unsure of the volume, for what it's worth. Present
in that run for week six on, he was the
QB eight and Fantasy points per game, number one in dropbacks,
(10:41):
like you mentioned, number two in passing yards, number three
in touchdowns. He had nine straight QB ones. However, and
this is the point that I wanted to make about
not to say you can't draft them, but you should
not pay a premium because the volume gets you the floor.
Jake nine straight QB ones. However, there was only a
single top five performance and it was a number four.
(11:03):
So without running, which is always gonna be the skeleton
key to getting into the top side and fantasy. I
think we have to pump the brace on Jacoby, but
it's baked into the price. So feature QB two or
three in Best Ball Redraft at all, I think that's fine.
The next stat is tight ends. I talk too much.
Fifty seven different tight ends registered at least one tight
end one week in PPR, which is nuts. Take it away,
(11:25):
talk this about tight ends, what it means going forward?
Speaker 1 (11:27):
Fifty seven different tight ends. I just had to repeat
it because.
Speaker 2 (11:33):
I think that's so crazy.
Speaker 3 (11:35):
I expect it.
Speaker 1 (11:37):
Like at running back, I understand because there's so many backups,
you have to start two running backs, and like for
fantasy purposes, Okay, it's not as wild of a stat
tight ends. We're only starting one. In most leagues, you're
only starting one tight end. You're only drafting one, maybe
two tight ends if you like to have a backup.
So this really reinforces something we've talked about before John,
(12:00):
which is in drafts, I'm going early, really early at
tight ends, like the top three guys, right, give me
Trey McBride, give me Brock Bauers, or I'm waiting until
the very end of my drafts to get one of
these guys who if you stream.
Speaker 3 (12:15):
Correctly, you know, change it up every week.
Speaker 1 (12:17):
If you got to pick somebody off of waivers, if
you can pick out who's going to get the top
twelve finished that week, you're in a way better position
than if you wasted your draft capital on a guy
in round six who's just kind of there and he's fine,
and he has a couple of these top twelve finishes,
but it wasn't worth it.
Speaker 3 (12:36):
So I don't know.
Speaker 1 (12:37):
We talk a lot about these late round sleepers, and
this just really got my head attuned to that, because
there are some wild names on this list too, Like
I didn't expect gunner Helm to have multiple top twelve weeks,
but he somehow did last year. So I don't know,
does this reinforce that for you or does this not
really say anything.
Speaker 2 (12:55):
Yeah, i'd mentioned working on those ranks and where I
thought i'd be dish agreeing with you about the top end.
I already let my cat out of the bag in
earlier episodes that the way it look like it was
shaping up. There's so many late tight ends that I
think could break into that conversation. Even though I don't
think any of them will catch Trey McBride, I do
think the one v one is worth it to wait
(13:17):
on the tight end. I don't think you're gonna find
that wide receiver one in the very last round where
you're getting again like Gunner Helm. There's a lot of
these guys that we mentioned. However, when I was doing
my ranks, you get into that second or third round
and it's hard not to take the ceiling plus the
floor of guys like Bowers or McBride, which I'm glad
(13:39):
you mentioned. He really feels very much right invulnerable to
almost anything. Right he's been through. He's been through a
lot as a fantasy player, and it always seems to
rise to the top. So yeah, with you, it is
okay to draft the elite players. I would not overpay
(14:01):
for them. I think you should be looking for them
to fall to you, even if it only means two
or three draft slots. That's okay. Other than that i'd
be looking to backfill. One thing. We also didn't mention
when there's a lot of tight ends or anything in
the onesie positions, Jake, people that spent draft capital. They
don't want to drop and churn those guys. So there's
even more supply and less demand on the wave wire.
(14:24):
All right, let's get into mine. I didn't really set
you up as well as you set me up. I
just wrote to you Stacy's terrible run production. It was
just insane. They were dead last in twenty yard runs.
Can you believe the Chiefs finished an entire season with
only three twenty yard runs. They were also dead last
(14:46):
in explosive run rate that was at five percent. However,
but butt butt, the big shaken butt as always, my friend.
They were top ten in yards before contact per rush,
which is generally thought of as the offensive line slash
schematic part of the statistical realm. So to me, that
(15:06):
feels like it even bigger wheels up For a guy
like Ken Walker, I think they're going to be looking
at lean into him, maybe without mahomes early on, or
even as you get him, and maybe he's not running
as much a player that I think I have him
way above market. Now, I know that's hard where he's
going so early, but I have him way above market.
(15:27):
I think he should be going in the second round.
I think there's a case for Ken Walker, as you know,
a late first round pick. So talk to me about
the turnaround that I think I might be seeing in
the Kansas City run game, which again is less forty
chess with kW three back there.
Speaker 1 (15:42):
Yeah, I'm glad you mentioned not only Patrick Mahomes potentially
missing games because of his injury, but what he's going
to be when he comes back, which, by the way,
you know, since we're on the subject in drafts, one
of my favorite things to do lately has been to
actually pair Patrick Mahomes with justin fields because you're getting
him so late in drafts. Any other year Patrick Mahomes
(16:05):
is I don't draft him because I don't draft quarterbacks early,
and he goes to early.
Speaker 3 (16:08):
This is the exception.
Speaker 1 (16:10):
Now, with that said, Patrick Mahomes should be fine still
when he comes back, but I don't expect him to
scramble nearly as much. I don't expect him to be
looking for that. The plays that they draw probably are
not going to even give that much flexibility at least
early on, so I think we'll see tons of Kenneth Walker.
I think another underrated aspect to this which should improve
(16:30):
those stats is bringing back Eric b Enemy as the
offensive coordinator. The offense is with and without him, going
back to what was it twenty twenty one or whatever,
it was compared to the last couple of years, so
drastically different, so much less explosive, so much less reliable
on a play to play basis. So I definitely am
(16:50):
on board with Kenneth Walker if he's there in the
second round, I have zero bones taking him because his
ADP is going to be close to another guy that
would just talk about, Jeremiah Love. I think when all
things are considered, because Love's ADP is going to keep rising.
It's what happens with rookies. And I want Kenneth Walker
one hundred times out of one hundred over Jeremiah Love.
Speaker 2 (17:12):
Yeah, me too. One other point that I wanted to
bring up, it's a rake that I stepped on myself
last year. I mean as a Jets fan, but it
really wasn't so much a laundry bro kind of thing,
and it was worrying about it was Breece hole, but
worrying about running back production in the passing game with
Justin Fields under center. That and there's not much good
(17:35):
to say about Justin Field's play last year for the Jets,
But one thing that did advance was his ability in
the RPO game, his ability to understand when maybe getting
the ball in a high percentage shovel pass to a
running back is a more effective play than trying to
tuck and run. And you know, Fields as exciting as
(17:57):
he can be, content to get happy feet and try
and break a million tackles. Sometimes he'll turn his back
on the defensive line, which you never really want to
be doing. So if we see that element, something else
you and I alluded to in another episode was Walker
showed that he could catch the ball. So you might
have a Justin Fields more willing to throw it to
a running back with a Ken Walker more able to
(18:19):
catch the ball than maybe people have given a credit for.
And this could be a perfect storm. I love that
Fields call out. I might love the Fields call out
even without Mahomes. Remember, there could be setbacks, there could
be problems. He's also a warrior. He could push the
reinjury and it Fields maybe figures it out. Also, you're
much more likely to figure it out whatever that it
(18:39):
is in Kansas City than you are in New York.
I don't even care what it is everything. You're just
more likely to do it whatever it is, providing it
is good. All right next time?
Speaker 3 (18:46):
For sure?
Speaker 2 (18:47):
Oh yes, absolutely absolutely? You know what yea Farnie The
Midwest got me into dry barbecue. I didn't really know
that was a thing where everything up here is very
much a wet barbecue. Alexim Yeah, I like some drive.
Well it's not the worst. I don't hate it, but man,
there's something to dry barbecue with good sauce on the side. Anyway,
we'll table that all right again. I didn't do you
(19:09):
many favors, my friend. I hoped I figured you would
pick up where I was going with this. I put
Las Vegas terrible run blocking Man, what an outline? Or
maybe I have another profession waiting for me. I was
hoping that you pick up on what it means for
Ashton Genty, I wrote, must read your spreadsheet. It's worse
(19:30):
than bad. So that just meant that there were so
many there were so many bad stats. I couldn't even
I couldn't even put them all. It's just atrocious. The
Raiders were objectively the worst running team. They had a
negative point twenty one ep per rush. Jake, I'm not
gonna put you on the spot. The second worst were
the Scents at point twelve, so were almost twice as
(19:50):
bad as the next worst team on a per snap basis.
That's objectively, and then they were worse than everything else.
Y'ad's before contact perrush keep that in mind. Rush success rate,
keep that in mind. I mean dead lasted anything five
twenty yard rushes. However, they were in the top ten
yards after contact per rush. They went out made a
(20:10):
big splash in free agency, they bringing in Tyler Linderbaum.
If you're going to bring in a Pro Bowl center
to go with what I think is a very good
left tackle in Colton Miller when he's happy, in fact
as a prop better, his playtime was very much tied
to Gent's success. I think we could be seeing maybe
(20:31):
a little bit of efficiency to go to that volume
that we're really worried about. Long story, really long. Maybe
I like Ashton genty at twelve to go with my
Keen Walker as that one to two back end pick,
like at to turn man you could make a major
splash with gent and Walker, two guys that could finish
his top five backs overall. I don't know if you
(20:53):
were on gent So answer that for us first, please Jake,
and then where you stand on maybe Gentin even the Raiders.
Speaker 1 (21:00):
Well, I mean, Genty showed last year what I think
his absolute floor is, because you don't come in as
a prospect like that and do that well on an
offense that is that poorly constructed without being really great.
So I do think Ashton Genty it could have only
gone up. I like that they at least tried to
(21:21):
fix the offensive line. I'm never gonna be somebody who says, hey,
look they brought in this guy, they drafted this guy,
it should all be better, because there's so many things
that have to happen for an offensive line to actually.
Speaker 3 (21:33):
Gel and be good together.
Speaker 1 (21:35):
But if you're at least taking the steps to do that,
I'll give you some bumps up right, Like I will
give Ashton Genty and that offensive line the benefit of
the doubt and say they're not going to be dead last.
Maybe they'll be twenty fifth, twenty fourth. That's fine because
Ashton Genty will benefit from that. He gets minimal competition
brought in. They ad Mike Washington, which I am bummed about.
(21:58):
I wanted him to go somewhere the lead guy. He'll
siphon some touches, but it's not it's gonna be the
Ashton Genti show. So yeah, I'm interested. I don't think
I would draft him as high as you if I
already have somebody like Kenneth Walker, because I like to
get a stud running back and then kind of fade in,
you know, let the other positions take over for a bit.
Speaker 3 (22:17):
But it's interesting.
Speaker 2 (22:19):
Okay, So that sounds like it puts you with Okay,
so one running back of the turn. I've avoided putting
you on the spot because I knew I had this
in my mind. You're gonna help me with my own
ranks by ranking those three running backs that I mentioned,
the three running backs that I think are the most
attractive at the turn. You're likely gonna have a crack
(22:39):
at all three of them, maybe two of them at
the turn. But give me one if you want a
more balanced build, which all of us think is a
very good plan for fantasy. That would be Ashton Jenny,
who we just mentioned. It'll be Ken Walker, who we
just mentioned, but also devon Ah Chanta is the other
player there that has shown real skill, talent, workload through
volume and explosives both between the tackles, right, He's not
(23:03):
really just a gimmicky kind of runner. So this is
where I've struggled. Could you rank those three right? If
you had to take one? Does one stand out? Don't
give us just who's the cheapest rankum?
Speaker 1 (23:12):
For us, it's Walker, h Chan and then Genty For me,
the thing that keeps Chan from being at the top,
by the way, is just the regime change of it all.
It's a completely different It's not just a new quarterback,
it's an entirely new system coming in with him as well.
I would like to say that they will just continue
to feed him. We never know that they have strong
preferences with how they want to employ a run game
(23:34):
sometimes and maybe Jalen Wright or Ali Gordon or something
you know, lurches into that workload just a little bit more.
But it's Kenneth Walker for me. I think he has
the highest ceiling and floor of those three.
Speaker 2 (23:47):
So the most interesting part of that for those of you,
unlike myself, buried in the spreadsheets all the time. That's
in reverse order of ADP. So right there we were
talking about timing of drafts. We don't know if that's
how it's going to shake out. We may get to
a point where the market agrees with you and I
(24:07):
that Walker should jump Barkley at fourteen, make it closer
to the turn, and maybe Genti has to slide back
behind Hn, which again would would make a lot of
sense personally. Again for me, Walker is the big jewel here.
It's the environment that I want to be attached to
the most when it counts. Again, that's the assumption that
(24:28):
Mahomes will get healthy for the double digit weeks, where
just keep that fantasy squad and contention right, it's about
how you finish, not how you start. Now, the next one,
I kept the poor outline and going I put Jets
terrible pass stats, hoping that you would pick up that
this is going to be something to do with Gino. Again.
The Jets were just It was the worst thing ever.
(24:48):
It was one of the worst iterations of Justin Field's
in a bad environment, which I don't believe he can thrive,
and I think he could be a good player if
guided properly. And they know how to maxim his strengths
and not emphasize his weaknesses. The Jets, of course, did
all the wrong things as expected. I mean, this is
just crazy. Yeah, some of these numbers Jake on a
(25:11):
season long basis are just kind of hard to swallow,
just as an analyst. Below one hundred and sixty five
pass yards a game, five point six yards per attempt,
single digit yards per completion, under seven air yards per attempt,
just twenty seven twenty yard completions the entire season, just
four and a half yards after the catch, and just
(25:35):
fifteen passing touchdowns. Hard to be worse than the Jets were.
They go and you know, reunited, and it feels so good.
I think Geno Smith is back in the saddle, and
though he is a professional quarterback, notice the inflection. This
was the worst we saw of him in a very
(25:58):
long time, maybe ever, Gino, I don't know what happened.
The picks were just out of control. For all the
other stuff that looked okay. Single digitwalf target rate, you know,
not terrible. H thirty three first down per attempt is
not terrible. Four percent TD per attempt not terrible. Seventeen
pick shake he was atrocious. I mean, this is Geno
enough to correct the Jets woes.
Speaker 1 (26:20):
We got to give him some credit, right, We were
just talking about how terrible that offensive line was with
the Raiders. It probably forced him to try to be
the hero when he shouldn't have been, and he didn't
have a nice system to thrive him.
Speaker 3 (26:33):
Like Seattle, I would argue, at.
Speaker 1 (26:35):
Least the Jets are minimally, minimally better than what he
was dealing with last year in Vegas. And I want
to be very, very pointed about this.
Speaker 4 (26:47):
Garrett Wilson is so underrated because he finally gets to
play with who I think is the most competent quarterback
of his career, Aaron Rodgers.
Speaker 1 (26:58):
That year, he was coming up off of burst achilles injury.
So I'm gonna go ahead and kind of wipe that out.
But in general, I do think that Geno Smith can
fix some of the things. You just need a guy
who is just okay. He just has to maintain a
level of okayness for the sake and sanity of that group.
So I think Garrett Wilson, bris Hall, those guys are
(27:20):
gonna be fine. I don't know about the rookies. We've
talked about them a little bit. Maybe he can help
get them some fantasy goodness as well, but I'm mostly
fixated on those two core players. I'm probably I mean,
I'm not probably not going to I'm not going to
draft Geno Smith anywhere, but I want him to help
the other pieces thrive.
Speaker 2 (27:39):
I hate that I have to see this, but I
love the Garrett Wilson play so much on its face
because I think objectively you could quantify that's a great pick.
I picked forty where he's going. I already loved Adinai
Mitchell as a stylistic match for Gino, who likes to
throw deep outside the numbers. When Mitchell is shown to
kind of be a bona fide star, he's probably was
(28:00):
always between the ears, it wasn't in the pads. So
once you like two wide receivers and a last round quarterback,
you're kind of into the stack. The fact though, so
here I am the Jets fan going to be drafting
the Jets. I think the price just makes all viable.
You don't have to overpay for any of it, so
I think we get with it. We have a little
(28:20):
bit of time. I want to circle back to your
last one that I kind of missed, and it was
a mecca at Buka. Who's going to be really a
point of contention. So your stat was at Buka had
fifty eight percent catchable target rate, wool Man, that was
one hundred and thirteenth among receivers who ran at least
two hundred routes. That's a nice solid compliment of playing
(28:40):
time right there, only eight at a worse rate. So
that's all really terrible. Talk to me where you're going
with this, because this could be a regression argument in
either direction. Where do you stand on Nigbuka Jig.
Speaker 1 (28:52):
I have become enamored with a Mecca Abuka, with drafting him,
with trading for him in Dynasty. I want as much
of a Bukah as I can get right now, because
that stat to me said a couple of things.
Speaker 3 (29:04):
One is that they really missed.
Speaker 1 (29:06):
Having healthy Mike Evans and healthy Chris Godwin, guys who
could help distribute these things for Baker. But the other
is that there kind of is nowhere to go for
him but up in terms of pass catching quality, in
terms of the quality of the targets that he's gonna get.
I would argue that the ceiling play for Abuka looks
a lot like the JSN trajectory. These guys were both
(29:28):
drafted into teams where it's like, hey, the depth chart's rough.
Speaker 3 (29:33):
You know, there's guys ahead of him. I don't really
love that.
Speaker 1 (29:36):
And then it thins out and they get to show
more of what they're capable of. I'm not saying that
Abukah is gonna come out and be the wide receiver
two this year, but I'm not saying that it's impossible
because I do believe in the talent for him. I
still think that Baker is a quality quarterback, at least
for fantasy purposes, and I think that some shifting of
the offensive scheme and just having dudes there who are
(29:58):
actually healthy the whole time time is going to help
the offense a lot. So I'm drafting him in Redraft
and Best Ball, and you betcha I'm trading for him
in Dynasty.
Speaker 2 (30:09):
Yeah. I love that too. In fact, as we talk
through today's topics, I always like to think how strategies
pair together, because we want to give out advice that
we can help ourselves with but also help any listeners.
And when I mentioned too, running backs at the turn
which I don't think is out of pocket. You could
do it, but you need a good wide receiver plan
(30:30):
and man Garrett Wilson and in Mecca Agbuka both going
between pick thirty eight and forty, which you know again
I like to, like I said, think in real pragmatic terms,
if you could get those two running backs at the
first turn, thirty eight and forty are both after number
thirty six, which would put you in a spot Jake
(30:54):
to then double tap Garrett Wilson and Agbuka. Now, I
guess there's a little bit of systemic risk, a little bit.
Let me do my Buka thing. What I saw, what
I wrote is what we remember, meaning fantasy hanks five
catches for sixty eight yards and zero touchdowns in the
last three games of the season combined. I made sure
(31:16):
to put a little yuck emoji. Okay, Then I wrote
what I want to remember, which was weeks four through
fourteen without Mike Evans, who has moved on to sunnier pastures.
At Buka was the overall wide receiver twenty four. Mind you,
this is an a rookie campaign. You know. In his
fourth career game, he was fifth in the league in
(31:37):
that timeframe in WOPPER, which is weighted opportunity rating. It's
a combination if anyone's interested in this combination of team target,
team air, but there's also like an efficiency, like a
value assigned to it, meaning end zone targets are worth more.
So the operating was to the roof twenty eight percent
(31:58):
of the team target chair forty four percent of the
teen air yards and included with that, because you know,
I like to look for specialty targets, Jake, My favorite
two types of targets because they're worth the most are
slot targets and end zone targets. In that frame, three
slot targets per game more than three quarters of an
end zone target per game. So at Buka like very
(32:19):
much not only a firm part of the game plan,
he is a versatile part of the game plan, which
I don't hate to be like. I think is important.
We know it's important. I've been writing about this stuff.
I have articles about this stuff coming out of my
nose at this point. That the reason you want guys
like CD Lamb where they elevate, because they could work
(32:40):
in and out of the slot and suck up some
of those volume targets when you're down low, So I'm
with you all the way on Abuka. Before we go,
we could forget my last mins of Titans. Don't want
to talk about that. I want to ask you your
response to that, Like you seemed pretty much set on
a balanced approach wide receiver running back early, which I get.
(33:00):
Could you see these later wide receiver ones convincing you
to double tap early running backs which have been foundational
winning pieces the last couple of years.
Speaker 1 (33:09):
Yeah, it's gotten harder with wide receivers and my estimation
to bank on guys later, and that has become the
trick of finding guys that not only are consistent, but
are even easy to pick for streamers. The streaming market
for wide receivers has gotten kind of gross, admittedly, so
I'm more inclined to get my wide receiver position shored
(33:31):
up as soon as possible. So it's not that I
won't double tap running backs early on. It's just like
you alluded to, though, I'd better have a really good
plan after that if I'm going to be doing it.
So if these ADPs stick around like this, I would
feel very confident with those two types of wide receivers
leading off my depth chart, not everybody's going to feel
that way, and then I'm sure I could find somebody
(33:54):
going a little bit later who i'd feel confident into.
Speaker 2 (33:57):
Yeah, I'm with you. I think the key to all
of this is understanding the percentage of your draft capital.
So I should have really been clear because it should
go without saying, but it doesn't. When you take two
running backs in the first two rounds, you're banking on
those players being winning picks. And I'm not saying you're
not taking anyone else, but you should not absolutely not
(34:20):
be taking another running back unless it's a flex later
later on, and then you look in a handcuff and
fill in because of what you said. Yeah, we have
confidence that Garrett Wilson and a book are gonna be
great picks, but you wanna still be backfilling that wide
receiver position looking to hit late. Jake, that was awesome
as always. I really appreciate the back and forth and
your time with us. If I had more time, I
(34:41):
would take it up. And you almost had to be
singing the whole New World when we opened, but I
think that'll probably wait un till next week. So from
Big John Lagaza and mister Jake Trobridge, everyone have a
wonderful week. We love you much well, Joya and we'll
see it the next off season episode of a fantasy
football weekly. No no, no
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