January 20, 2023 • 29 mins
Ben Maller & Danny G. have a special NFL Playoffs broadcast for you, as the popular BENNY VS. THE PENNY takes over the Friday podcast! Every Divisional Round Weekend game is picked against the spread, with Maller-style analysis! Will Ben make a comeback after getting trounced last weekend?
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Ka boom. If you thought four hours a day, minutes
a week was enough, think again. He's the last remnants
of the old republic, a sole fashion of fairness. He
treats crackheads in the ghetto gutter the same as the
rich pill poppers in the penthouse to clearing house of
hot takes, break free for something special. The Fifth Hour
(00:23):
with Ben Maller starts right now in the air Everywhere,
a brand new addition of the Fifth Hour with Ben
Mallard and Danny G. Radio. I love Tom Brady. I
would cuddle with him, that's how cool he is. We
(00:44):
welcome you into the podcast do jo content that you
will not hear anywhere else. Nobody else has this content
that you're about to hear, and it is our Friday
podcast during football season. This entire year. We have given
you the gift of Benny versus the Penny. It is
(01:06):
now the divisional round. So let's crank up the band.
Here we go. Welcome players, You're welcome. It's time now
Penny versus the Penny. Wow. Alright, that the Big you
(01:26):
have the Big Open, Danny g or else. It's not
officially you need the Big Open or else. It's just
an amateur operation, and we're not an amateur operation. No,
we are not amateur producing. We're producing this podcast here.
And Ben, I heard a rumor that The Penny had
an amazing weekend. Well we'll get into that as pillars
(01:49):
of the podcast community. We're going to move at a
break next bit. We don't really need to look back,
do we. I mean, we can look forward. Looking back
is over raight, it overaraded. But to be precise to
the n EG, people have been waiting all year. They've
been saying, you know, you've been win a lot of
(02:09):
games here, you killed the Penny during the regular season,
but it's a new season in the playoffs and you're
gonna lose. You're gonna lose. And well this this wild
Card weekend, was wont to forget the scoreboard. We go
to the tail of the tape, not the tail of
the tape. The post fight CompuBox stats on wild Card weekend.
(02:30):
There were six games on wild Card weekend, and yours
truly a man that has done a podcast all year
giving out advice on NFL games while smiling while do
it went one four and one against the spread, one
four and one against the spread. That sucks rocks and
(02:52):
pales in comparison to the Penny, who went four one
and one. So the opposite of my record, the Penny
three games ahead of me as we head into the
divisional round of the playoffs. Not just a defend myself
a little bit here, give you something to chew on, Danny,
I pushed on the Bengals. That was a seven point
(03:16):
line when we did Benny versus the Penny of the
game ended at seven, so I pushed on that I won.
The only game I won was the last game the Cowboys.
If the Buccaneers had won that game the Cowboys were favored,
then I would have not won a single game all
wild Card weekend. But there are reasons for this. Now
I look, I always look back when I have a
(03:37):
bad weekend, and my instincts are was my handicapping wrong
or did something walky happen? And I look back and
I still feel rather confident that I didn't f up.
Like the psychological part of things, I didn't screw up handicapping.
For example, I usually play underdogs, but I played Buffalo.
(03:58):
I thought they were gonna play much better, and they
came out and they had a couple of touchdowns early.
There was another touchdown that was taken off the board.
There was a play in the ends on the ball
hit the ground, and that was gut wrenching for me.
If you had Buffalo, you get out to a big lead,
snowballs up. But Josh Allen his turnovers and the fumbles interception.
(04:21):
It harppooned the Bills that and because of the turnovers,
the Dolphins third strain quarterback was able to have shorter
fields and was able to actually make some plays, which
is not does not bode well for the Buffalo defense.
I had the Vikings, that was anyone's game, but Minnesota's
defense couldn't stop and they couldn't stop a high school
(04:43):
team the way they were tackling, and it was embarrassing.
So I lost that one, the one that will last,
And I don't deserve criticism for this one. I had
the Chargers. They were up twenty seven to nothing. Danny,
no wonder, I thought clips of you this last week
(05:03):
asking for Brandon Staley's head on them. Ridiculous, man. This
was like the Chargers baptism that they're in the playoffs
and they've got Justin Herbert and all this stuff, and
they're gonna be fine, and and they have twenty seven
nothing and they end up losing the game, which seems
like a mathematical impossibility. It happens about once a generation,
(05:26):
and it happened on wild Card weekend. Then also, I
believe this is also on Saturday. The Seattle Seahawks. We're
leading seventeen sixteen over the forty Niners. At halftime, they're
getting ten points. Now, they didn't stop the Niners. If
you watched this game, you know in the first half,
(05:47):
they didn't really do much to stop the Niners, but
they were there. They had some some things go their way.
So you figure getting ten that you're you're thinking, okay,
we're in pretty good shape here, you're up by one,
and you're going to the bag of tree and you
just kind of hang around, just kind of hanging around,
and what happens, turnovers yet again, and Seattle just packed
(06:08):
it in at halftime and they end up losing. And
that's that and the Penny the Penny, the only game
of Penny loss was the Buccaneer game. The Penny also
had the Bengals, and so the Penny pushed on Cincinnati.
So that is what happened. But I would I would
like to point after the trolls Danny that overall I
(06:28):
am still ahead of the penny. If you include the
regular season, I am still way ahead of the penny. Well,
for somebody who doesn't like to be a historian, you're
digging back into the past, remember, Ben, the postseason is
a brand new season. But with that said, I'm not
exactly confident the Penny can produce like this two weeks
(06:50):
in a row. Well, the test is there because now
people have been swayed over to the Penny and they're
flashing back to the days of yore when the Penny
stood tall every week and that was the glamour side
Benny versus the Penny, not this year where Benny dominated.
All Right, with that said, let's get to it here.
It is Divisional Round, and this will not be a
(07:13):
super long podcast unless I have a lot of information
on these games. But we're not gonna bore you. There's
four games this weekend will be down to the final
four of the NFL after Sunday evening and the first
game to kick things off this weekend on the Divisional
Round Saturday, Jacksonville in the late afternoon or mid afternoon
(07:37):
depending on which time zone you're in. Jacksonville nine and
eight at Cansas City fourteen and three during the regular
season on and Be see Mike Tarico and Chris Collinsworth.
They have the call. The Chiefs opened up a ten
point favorite. They are favorite by nine in this game
(08:01):
and most people think this is a free money situation
and Kansas City getting almost seventy of the handle in
this Arrowheads Stadium clash, cloudy thirty four degrees at kickoff
on Saturday afternoon. Jacksonville eight in five outright and against
(08:23):
the spread as an underdog this season. That is tied
for the most underdog wins in a single season in
the modern era. Since they started playing the Super Bowl,
They've we've never had a great as great a dog
as Jacksonville. They have only been an underdog of seven
or more points once. That was at Kansas City. They
(08:46):
were nine point dogs, similar to what the line is
on Saturday. They lost that game by ten points. Jacksonville
they have won four straight as an underdog. Doug Peterson,
going back to his days in Philadelphia, has been wonderful
as a dog. He's six and against the spread, five
(09:07):
and one straight up when his team in the playoffs
has been an underdog, and that is the most playoff
games as an underdog by a coach without a loss
against the spread in the modern ears. I can go
on and on. I got all kinds of numbers. Kansas
City to and ten against the number when they play
(09:27):
conference opponents. They've also been dreadful when they've they've been
these these big favorites. This will be the fourteenth straight
playoff game that Kansas City has been favored in. That
is the longest streak by any team in this Super
Bowl era. Patrick Mahomes has been favored in all twelve
(09:48):
of his playoffs starts. That is also the longest streak
to begin a career in the NFL. So I got
all kinds of numbers here, but bottom line, I'm taking
Jacksonville and I'm taking the points. And here's why you're
getting over a touchdown in a playoff game. I got
burned last week picking a lot of chalk. I'm gonna
(10:08):
walk back on that plan. The Chiefs have been very
good this year. Fourteen wins is real sexy, but they
rarely blow anyone out. And these teams they we mentioned
they played months ago, a couple of months ago. Kansas
City in that game put up almost five yards. They
were up twenty enough, blowing the doors off Jacksonville in
(10:31):
that game. But what happened in the second half, the
Jacks were able to kind of work their way back
get within striking distance. They got a late garbage time
touchdown with about five minutes to go in the game.
And depending on what point spread you got, either they
covered the spread or they came ridiculously, ridiculously close for
(10:51):
us for our purposes, the line we had, they ended
up getting the back door cover in that game, in
part because the Chiefs had not one, not too but
three fumbles and an interception against Jacksonville. And as we
learned last weekend, we were reminded, turnovers are the great equalizer.
You don't know which Trevor Lawrence is gonna show up.
(11:12):
Is it gonna be first half Trevor Lawrence who's stunk,
or second half Trevor Lawrence who worked like clockwork, but
getting the points and knowing even if the Chiefs jump,
if Kansas City jumps out to US seventeen nothing lead
or seventeen to three lead, that the Jags they got
some dog in him. Danny They're gonna They're gonna fight back.
(11:33):
Chiefs thirty four Jaguars seven. The final and the first
flip lands on tails. The penny says, your pick was
a very penny like pick, going with the Jags, Penny
(11:53):
copying my pick wrong. Next up the New York Giants,
who went nine seven and one during the regular season,
playing their division rival Philadelphia fourteen and three, the number
one seed in the NFC as Kansas City and number
one in the a f C. This game is on
Fox with Joe Davis and Darryl moose Johnson on a
(12:14):
Saturday evening. The Eagles opened up a seven and a
half point favorite, and this is all of course controlled chaos,
and the Eagles still favored by seven and a half.
The Giants a live road dog just down in Philly,
and they are getting a slight lean on the money,
(12:36):
mostly cloudy thirty nine degrees that kick off at the link.
And this will be the third meeting between these teams
over the last seven weeks. Now, back in Week fourteen,
the Birds they won that game in a route or
route depending on which side you're on, forty two. They
covered as a seven point road favorite. In Week eighteen,
(13:00):
was the last week. The Giants didn't play a lot
of their starters. The Eagles did. They had to secure
the number one seed. Philly won that game, but only
by six against backups, and they were a seven team
point home favorite as as that game kicked off. And
so I'm giving you a a lot of numbers. Giants have
covered ten straight games on short rest New York fourteen
(13:23):
and four against the spread this year. That is number
one in the entire NFL. They're eleven in two as
an underdog. So the covers as an underdog tied for
the most by any team in the Super Bowl era.
So bottom, I'm I'm gonna take the Giants the pick.
(13:46):
Here's the Giants, and they won the nail bider with
the vikings. They actually dominated the statue against a crappy
Minnesota defense. They had almost a hundred more yards, They
were over fifty four, said almost on third down, had
seven more first downs. And and listen, this week is
(14:07):
a much better opponent. Philadelphia is legit defensively, but Jalen
Hurts is not. The Giants have been smothered head to
head with Philadelphia. Can they really close the gap with
a focused Eagle team? They were able to close it
a little bit with backups back to close out the
(14:30):
regular season, so the formula is no. Jimmy Johnson, the
old Dallas coach is now at Fox, pointed out the
Eagles offense is very gimmicky to gimmicky, heavy, heavy system,
and will they be able to make the necessary adjustments
here in a playoff game to enhance their performance? I
(14:51):
am skeptical now. I know this is a much better
Eago team, but I remember watching last year and maybe
you did too, when the Eagles played Bucks on wild
Card weekend and we're down thirty one to nothing, and
we can reminisce about that thirty one nothing going to
the fourth quarter. Then Philly got a couple of garbage
time touchdowns and they had some stat stuffing by Jalen Hurt,
(15:14):
so it didn't look quite as bad. But you're getting
over a touchdown with the Philadelphia Eagles. Jalen Hurts coming
off injury, will he be rusty? You've also got Lane Johnson,
the tackle who's going to attempt to play. He's got
a groin injury. There's a tear and his abductor in
(15:35):
his groin, which sounds terrible. What could possibly go wrong
to the tackle for the Eagles. So not that I
love Danny Dines. I know you look great and had
a wonderful stat line and that's against a weak defense
last week. I don't trust him, but I'm gonna bet
on him anyway. Why not, I'll take the Giants to
get the cover. This will be a much closer game
(15:55):
than it should be. Eagles twenty six, Giants twenty three,
which means the NFC Championship game will be in Philly.
And just like last week, the way the penny picked
the Niners to dominate, going with the Eagles to beat
(16:16):
the Giants convincingly. Is there a more annoying chant than
eat g eas Eagles? Yeah? The Jets chant bothers me
more for some reason. Well, because the Jets are never
any good? Is that? Why? Jack? That fireman guy back
in the day, But he had a legitimate fireman's helmet.
(16:36):
He had like a real medal, like like that was
like a legitimate helmet fireman. Ed got a lot of
TV time, but nobody gets more TV time than Jerry Jones.
And I know we'll get to the Cowboy game later,
but every every time the Cowboys scored on Monday night,
they showed Jerry making out with somebody in the owner's box.
It was fascinating men, women, anybody. He just wanted to
(16:57):
kiss and hug. It was a while. Uh all right.
Next up, let's get to the Sunday games on Benny
versus the Penny Divisional Round weekend. And then let's go
with Cincinnati twelve and four at Buffalo and three during
the regular season. This is the matchup that we did
not get to see on Monday night because a few
(17:20):
weeks ago because of the the injury that stopped the game.
And fortunately that is now passed, and and Hamlin is
good to go at least he's living and alive and
amongst us and all that. Now this game on CBS.
Jim Nance and Tony Romo have the call. The Bills
opened a three and a half point favorite, and they
(17:41):
are favored by five and a half, so less than
a touchdown. Many thought the Bills would be favored by
more than a touchdown, but only five and a half,
some saying there's value on Buffalo side. Most people think
this is another free money game Bills at home. How
what what could go wrong? And all that? Well, the
weather not gonna be a factor in this game. No
snow at kickoff, cloudy thirty six degrees at jam Pack
(18:07):
High Mark Stadium in this one. Some of the numbers,
some of the trends coming in. Cincinnati has covered eight
straight games as a dog, including the playoffs. That's the
longest active street going in the in the NFL right now,
and the past six times Cincinnati has been an underdog.
(18:28):
The game also went under if you're an over understate player.
We don't normally mess around with OBErs and unders on
benny versus the penny. It's just pure. We keep it
pure with with the point sprint now Joe Burrow fifteen
and seven in his career as an underdog, thirteen and
two against the spread as a dog of at least
(18:49):
three points. That is wicked good man is that good?
And Cincinnati five and one against the number their last
six playoff games. That goes back to but most of
that heavy lifting last year when the Ben Gals got
to the Super Bowl. So Buffalo, the only team that
(19:11):
has been favored in every game they played this season
is the Bill. Offense and defense, the whole deal. But Buffalo,
who started out like a wagon and they were great
man that was so good to begin the year. The
Bills over their last eleven games, if you've bet on
the Bills against the spread, you have gone three seven
(19:32):
and one. That's armageddon if you're a gambler, three seven
and one, oh and four against the spread their last
four games against teams with a winning record. I'm taking
the Bankers now summer writing off Cincinnati here because the
offensive line issues. Three starters appear out at the time
we're doing this, but we are writing with the natty.
(19:52):
Joe Burrow has shown that he can adapt. He's got
the Darwinism right adapted. I he can adapt to his surroundings.
The backups. Backups will be playing. But Joe Burrow showed
last year. I'm being a hype guy here. He showed
that with a week offensive line, he's still a samurai.
(20:15):
And Buffalo does not have Von Miller. They are no
longer as lethal as they had been. Buffalo almost almost
lost to a third string quarterback in Skyler Thompson last week. Now,
why did they do that? They lost because there were
a lot of that They almost lost because of a
lot of mistakes. You have the curious case of Josh Allen,
(20:39):
who is the real Josh Allen. This guy had the
most amazing playoff run last year. He's been dubbed Mr.
January by Tony Romo. Over the last month, Josh Allen
has been Jameis Winston of the thirty thirty year in
Tampa and my evidence against the Bears, the Patriots, and
(21:00):
the Dolphins, the last three opponents that Josh Allen has played,
He's got eight touchdowns and five interceptions plus four fumbles,
so nine turnover worthy plays and eight touchdowns. Buffalo three
and oh in those games. But that's juggling live hand
grenades here. Cincinnati's defense sneaky, good, opportunistic defense. The last
(21:24):
month their fifth in scoring defense. The Bills are actually
eighteen over the last month. What have you done for
me lately? And Cincinnati is the main reason I like
the Bengals. I know the offensive lines left up and
all that, but the ball hacking ability of the Bengals defense.
We saw it against the Ravens, the fumble the goal
line that was returned ninety yards for a touchdown, the
(21:45):
game breaking play against Baltimore last week. But over the
last month, Cincinnati leads the NFL enforced fumbles, So you
have a team that's mistake prone right now in Buffalo,
you've got a defense that is opportunistic at pulling the
ball out. And the arithmetic adds up to a close
(22:06):
game and Cincinnati spoiling the party, taking advantage of some
short fields here and getting her done. Bengals back in
the a f C title games, say today and so well,
it will not be playing in Atlanta in a neutral site.
That will be playing this game at Arrowhead Stadium. Bengals
seven bills and let the excuses rain down for Josh Allen.
(22:37):
And look at that. Two disagreements in a row. The
Penny going with the Bills, all right, So we have
gone back to back disagreements? Will we make it three disagreements?
Will find out right now the last game on the
card on Benny versus the Pennies. We grind through it.
On a divisional round of the playoffs, Dallas twelve and
(22:59):
five at San Francisco thirteen and four. It's on Fox
with Kevin Burkhardt and Greg Olsen. The Dallas Cowboys opened
up a four and a half point underdog, the Niners favored,
and the Niners are currently favored by three and a
half in this game. So the forty Niners getting that
(23:23):
hook is so you have to win by more than
the field goal. The money is almost dead even on
this at Levi's Stadium, mostly sunny at kickoff, temperatures in
the fifty high fifties, fifty seven degrees at kickoff. So
the forty Niners have won eleven straight games in that stretch.
(23:43):
They are nine and two against the spread, eight and
won their last nine games. It's been a magic carpet
right ever since they got Christian McCaffrey from Carolina and
Brock Purty the second rookie quarterbacks. It's the year two thousand,
almost a generation. Can you believe it's been almost a
(24:04):
generations in the year two thousand. That's crazy to me,
but that's the case anyway. So Brock party the second
quarterback since the year two thousand to be favored in
a playoff game in the divisional round or later. The
only other quarterback that has had that in the last
twenty three years is Dak Prescott. Dallas lost. They were
(24:25):
a five point favorite. That was way back in twenty sixteen,
seven years ago, and Dallas they've lost seven straight playoff
games as a dog. The last time a Dallas Cowboy
team pulled an upset in the playoffs nineteen ninety two,
(24:45):
the conference championship game, which was against the forty Niners.
Troy Aikman, Emmett Smith, Michael Irvan, we're getting four points
in that game. Dallas has been favored in twelve straight
games entering this week, the second longest active streaked. Dady
ends this will be the forty niners eleventh straight game
as a favorite. Bottom line, I'm taking the forty Niners
(25:08):
to pick is in. I'm taking the forty Niners. We
were on the Cowboys last week, but we are going
the other way now. Why you're only as good as
your next opponent, and the forty Niners are a wagon.
The Buccaneers were a hot wheels car. We tried to
tell you Tampa was a joke. They were a fraud.
And that's exactly the team that showed up in the
(25:29):
game at Raymond James Stadium on Monday night. Dak Prescott
is gonna have that glass slipper crack. He'll be staying
at the Heartache Hotel. San Francisco's defense has been the
real deal almost all year. They've had a couple of hiccups,
but they've been solid and they've gotten brock Purty. I
don't know how they've done it, but he's been the
(25:50):
alter ego of Jimmy Garoppolo. He's actually been a better
version of Garoppolo, which seemed impossible. Now, we were worried
about a meltdown against Seattle. We said that on Benny
versus the Penny last week, no chance. The Seahawks defense crumbled.
The forty Niners had nine real possessions. Take the one
out where they ran the clock out at the end
of the game. They've had nine real possessions. Or last
(26:13):
week wild Card weekend, they scored four field goals, they
had four touchdowns, and they punted once, put up five
yards of offense. Now that was against a much better,
much much worse defense. Is a much better opponent. Dallas
is a legit defense. In fact, this is the toughest
(26:33):
opponent that brock Purdy has played, the biggest test for
brock Purdy that he has faced in his young NFL career.
Based on the numbers, but the Niners, the whole is
greater than the sum of the parts. The the game plan,
I trust the coaching more. I'm not a big Mike
McCarthy guy. Trust Kyle Shanahan more in his head to
head matchup, and this should be a blowout, an absolute route,
(26:56):
and I'm going with the Niners in a rout. I
think that Cowboys come tumbling back down and Dak Prescott
is gonna be the wild thing, and not in a
good way. Here. We're gonna see more of the Dak
Prescott we saw against Washington and less of the Dak
Prescott we saw against an overrated and washed up bucketeer team.
Forty Niners thirty seven and the Cowboys is your final.
(27:27):
And just like last week, you only agreed with the
Penny on one game and one game alone because the
Penny is a fan of the Cowboys defense. That's too
many points for the Niners going with Dallas, all right,
So we'll see if things get harry for me again. Boy,
this could be really bad. This could be if I
(27:48):
if I have another crap weekend, I will be down
six games to the Penny based on the numbers. Now,
we could get some ties in there, we could get
a couple of pushes and all that. But are those
are the picks from member? Do with them as you
like you should handicap these games yourself. These are not
for entertainment purposes only Danny, because we don't have to
say that anymore. Gamblings legal in most places other than
(28:11):
the People's Republic of California, where we do the show from.
But these are changing times here, and only bet as
much as you can afford to lose. As we like
to say, we got a full week in the podcast though, Dan,
if you like this, great, but we'll be talking about
our lives and things that happened to us and stories
that have never been told before on the Saturday podcast.
(28:31):
We got the mail bag on Sunday, and so spend
some time with us. We are your weekend companion, myself
and Danny g and we will talk to you on
our next edition of the Fifth Hour. Have a great
rest of your day, and may all your pets win
(28:52):
and cover the spread. It's not whether you want to lose,
it's did you cover the spread? We'll talk to you
next time later. Skater Bophylation
Ka boom. If you thought four hours a day, minutes
a week was enough, think again. He's the last remnants
of the old republic, a sole fashion of fairness. He
treats crackheads in the ghetto gutter the same as the
rich pill poppers in the penthouse to clearing house of
hot takes, break free for something special. The Fifth Hour
(00:23):
with Ben Maller starts right now in the air Everywhere,
a brand new addition of the Fifth Hour with Ben
Mallard and Danny G. Radio. I love Tom Brady. I
would cuddle with him, that's how cool he is. We
(00:44):
welcome you into the podcast do jo content that you
will not hear anywhere else. Nobody else has this content
that you're about to hear, and it is our Friday
podcast during football season. This entire year. We have given
you the gift of Benny versus the Penny. It is
(01:06):
now the divisional round. So let's crank up the band.
Here we go. Welcome players, You're welcome. It's time now
Penny versus the Penny. Wow. Alright, that the Big you
(01:26):
have the Big Open, Danny g or else. It's not
officially you need the Big Open or else. It's just
an amateur operation, and we're not an amateur operation. No,
we are not amateur producing. We're producing this podcast here.
And Ben, I heard a rumor that The Penny had
an amazing weekend. Well we'll get into that as pillars
(01:49):
of the podcast community. We're going to move at a
break next bit. We don't really need to look back,
do we. I mean, we can look forward. Looking back
is over raight, it overaraded. But to be precise to
the n EG, people have been waiting all year. They've
been saying, you know, you've been win a lot of
(02:09):
games here, you killed the Penny during the regular season,
but it's a new season in the playoffs and you're
gonna lose. You're gonna lose. And well this this wild
Card weekend, was wont to forget the scoreboard. We go
to the tail of the tape, not the tail of
the tape. The post fight CompuBox stats on wild Card weekend.
(02:30):
There were six games on wild Card weekend, and yours
truly a man that has done a podcast all year
giving out advice on NFL games while smiling while do
it went one four and one against the spread, one
four and one against the spread. That sucks rocks and
(02:52):
pales in comparison to the Penny, who went four one
and one. So the opposite of my record, the Penny
three games ahead of me as we head into the
divisional round of the playoffs. Not just a defend myself
a little bit here, give you something to chew on, Danny,
I pushed on the Bengals. That was a seven point
(03:16):
line when we did Benny versus the Penny of the
game ended at seven, so I pushed on that I won.
The only game I won was the last game the Cowboys.
If the Buccaneers had won that game the Cowboys were favored,
then I would have not won a single game all
wild Card weekend. But there are reasons for this. Now
I look, I always look back when I have a
(03:37):
bad weekend, and my instincts are was my handicapping wrong
or did something walky happen? And I look back and
I still feel rather confident that I didn't f up.
Like the psychological part of things, I didn't screw up handicapping.
For example, I usually play underdogs, but I played Buffalo.
(03:58):
I thought they were gonna play much better, and they
came out and they had a couple of touchdowns early.
There was another touchdown that was taken off the board.
There was a play in the ends on the ball
hit the ground, and that was gut wrenching for me.
If you had Buffalo, you get out to a big lead,
snowballs up. But Josh Allen his turnovers and the fumbles interception.
(04:21):
It harppooned the Bills that and because of the turnovers,
the Dolphins third strain quarterback was able to have shorter
fields and was able to actually make some plays, which
is not does not bode well for the Buffalo defense.
I had the Vikings, that was anyone's game, but Minnesota's
defense couldn't stop and they couldn't stop a high school
(04:43):
team the way they were tackling, and it was embarrassing.
So I lost that one, the one that will last,
And I don't deserve criticism for this one. I had
the Chargers. They were up twenty seven to nothing. Danny,
no wonder, I thought clips of you this last week
(05:03):
asking for Brandon Staley's head on them. Ridiculous, man. This
was like the Chargers baptism that they're in the playoffs
and they've got Justin Herbert and all this stuff, and
they're gonna be fine, and and they have twenty seven
nothing and they end up losing the game, which seems
like a mathematical impossibility. It happens about once a generation,
(05:26):
and it happened on wild Card weekend. Then also, I
believe this is also on Saturday. The Seattle Seahawks. We're
leading seventeen sixteen over the forty Niners. At halftime, they're
getting ten points. Now, they didn't stop the Niners. If
you watched this game, you know in the first half,
(05:47):
they didn't really do much to stop the Niners, but
they were there. They had some some things go their way.
So you figure getting ten that you're you're thinking, okay,
we're in pretty good shape here, you're up by one,
and you're going to the bag of tree and you
just kind of hang around, just kind of hanging around,
and what happens, turnovers yet again, and Seattle just packed
(06:08):
it in at halftime and they end up losing. And
that's that and the Penny the Penny, the only game
of Penny loss was the Buccaneer game. The Penny also
had the Bengals, and so the Penny pushed on Cincinnati.
So that is what happened. But I would I would
like to point after the trolls Danny that overall I
(06:28):
am still ahead of the penny. If you include the
regular season, I am still way ahead of the penny. Well,
for somebody who doesn't like to be a historian, you're
digging back into the past, remember, Ben, the postseason is
a brand new season. But with that said, I'm not
exactly confident the Penny can produce like this two weeks
(06:50):
in a row. Well, the test is there because now
people have been swayed over to the Penny and they're
flashing back to the days of yore when the Penny
stood tall every week and that was the glamour side
Benny versus the Penny, not this year where Benny dominated.
All Right, with that said, let's get to it here.
It is Divisional Round, and this will not be a
(07:13):
super long podcast unless I have a lot of information
on these games. But we're not gonna bore you. There's
four games this weekend will be down to the final
four of the NFL after Sunday evening and the first
game to kick things off this weekend on the Divisional
Round Saturday, Jacksonville in the late afternoon or mid afternoon
(07:37):
depending on which time zone you're in. Jacksonville nine and
eight at Cansas City fourteen and three during the regular
season on and Be see Mike Tarico and Chris Collinsworth.
They have the call. The Chiefs opened up a ten
point favorite. They are favorite by nine in this game
(08:01):
and most people think this is a free money situation
and Kansas City getting almost seventy of the handle in
this Arrowheads Stadium clash, cloudy thirty four degrees at kickoff
on Saturday afternoon. Jacksonville eight in five outright and against
(08:23):
the spread as an underdog this season. That is tied
for the most underdog wins in a single season in
the modern era. Since they started playing the Super Bowl,
They've we've never had a great as great a dog
as Jacksonville. They have only been an underdog of seven
or more points once. That was at Kansas City. They
(08:46):
were nine point dogs, similar to what the line is
on Saturday. They lost that game by ten points. Jacksonville
they have won four straight as an underdog. Doug Peterson,
going back to his days in Philadelphia, has been wonderful
as a dog. He's six and against the spread, five
(09:07):
and one straight up when his team in the playoffs
has been an underdog, and that is the most playoff
games as an underdog by a coach without a loss
against the spread in the modern ears. I can go
on and on. I got all kinds of numbers. Kansas
City to and ten against the number when they play
(09:27):
conference opponents. They've also been dreadful when they've they've been
these these big favorites. This will be the fourteenth straight
playoff game that Kansas City has been favored in. That
is the longest streak by any team in this Super
Bowl era. Patrick Mahomes has been favored in all twelve
(09:48):
of his playoffs starts. That is also the longest streak
to begin a career in the NFL. So I got
all kinds of numbers here, but bottom line, I'm taking
Jacksonville and I'm taking the points. And here's why you're
getting over a touchdown in a playoff game. I got
burned last week picking a lot of chalk. I'm gonna
(10:08):
walk back on that plan. The Chiefs have been very
good this year. Fourteen wins is real sexy, but they
rarely blow anyone out. And these teams they we mentioned
they played months ago, a couple of months ago. Kansas
City in that game put up almost five yards. They
were up twenty enough, blowing the doors off Jacksonville in
(10:31):
that game. But what happened in the second half, the
Jacks were able to kind of work their way back
get within striking distance. They got a late garbage time
touchdown with about five minutes to go in the game.
And depending on what point spread you got, either they
covered the spread or they came ridiculously, ridiculously close for
(10:51):
us for our purposes, the line we had, they ended
up getting the back door cover in that game, in
part because the Chiefs had not one, not too but
three fumbles and an interception against Jacksonville. And as we
learned last weekend, we were reminded, turnovers are the great equalizer.
You don't know which Trevor Lawrence is gonna show up.
(11:12):
Is it gonna be first half Trevor Lawrence who's stunk,
or second half Trevor Lawrence who worked like clockwork, but
getting the points and knowing even if the Chiefs jump,
if Kansas City jumps out to US seventeen nothing lead
or seventeen to three lead, that the Jags they got
some dog in him. Danny They're gonna They're gonna fight back.
(11:33):
Chiefs thirty four Jaguars seven. The final and the first
flip lands on tails. The penny says, your pick was
a very penny like pick, going with the Jags, Penny
(11:53):
copying my pick wrong. Next up the New York Giants,
who went nine seven and one during the regular season,
playing their division rival Philadelphia fourteen and three, the number
one seed in the NFC as Kansas City and number
one in the a f C. This game is on
Fox with Joe Davis and Darryl moose Johnson on a
(12:14):
Saturday evening. The Eagles opened up a seven and a
half point favorite, and this is all of course controlled chaos,
and the Eagles still favored by seven and a half.
The Giants a live road dog just down in Philly,
and they are getting a slight lean on the money,
(12:36):
mostly cloudy thirty nine degrees that kick off at the link.
And this will be the third meeting between these teams
over the last seven weeks. Now, back in Week fourteen,
the Birds they won that game in a route or
route depending on which side you're on, forty two. They
covered as a seven point road favorite. In Week eighteen,
(13:00):
was the last week. The Giants didn't play a lot
of their starters. The Eagles did. They had to secure
the number one seed. Philly won that game, but only
by six against backups, and they were a seven team
point home favorite as as that game kicked off. And
so I'm giving you a a lot of numbers. Giants have
covered ten straight games on short rest New York fourteen
(13:23):
and four against the spread this year. That is number
one in the entire NFL. They're eleven in two as
an underdog. So the covers as an underdog tied for
the most by any team in the Super Bowl era.
So bottom, I'm I'm gonna take the Giants the pick.
(13:46):
Here's the Giants, and they won the nail bider with
the vikings. They actually dominated the statue against a crappy
Minnesota defense. They had almost a hundred more yards, They
were over fifty four, said almost on third down, had
seven more first downs. And and listen, this week is
(14:07):
a much better opponent. Philadelphia is legit defensively, but Jalen
Hurts is not. The Giants have been smothered head to
head with Philadelphia. Can they really close the gap with
a focused Eagle team? They were able to close it
a little bit with backups back to close out the
(14:30):
regular season, so the formula is no. Jimmy Johnson, the
old Dallas coach is now at Fox, pointed out the
Eagles offense is very gimmicky to gimmicky, heavy, heavy system,
and will they be able to make the necessary adjustments
here in a playoff game to enhance their performance? I
(14:51):
am skeptical now. I know this is a much better
Eago team, but I remember watching last year and maybe
you did too, when the Eagles played Bucks on wild
Card weekend and we're down thirty one to nothing, and
we can reminisce about that thirty one nothing going to
the fourth quarter. Then Philly got a couple of garbage
time touchdowns and they had some stat stuffing by Jalen Hurt,
(15:14):
so it didn't look quite as bad. But you're getting
over a touchdown with the Philadelphia Eagles. Jalen Hurts coming
off injury, will he be rusty? You've also got Lane Johnson,
the tackle who's going to attempt to play. He's got
a groin injury. There's a tear and his abductor in
(15:35):
his groin, which sounds terrible. What could possibly go wrong
to the tackle for the Eagles. So not that I
love Danny Dines. I know you look great and had
a wonderful stat line and that's against a weak defense
last week. I don't trust him, but I'm gonna bet
on him anyway. Why not, I'll take the Giants to
get the cover. This will be a much closer game
(15:55):
than it should be. Eagles twenty six, Giants twenty three,
which means the NFC Championship game will be in Philly.
And just like last week, the way the penny picked
the Niners to dominate, going with the Eagles to beat
(16:16):
the Giants convincingly. Is there a more annoying chant than
eat g eas Eagles? Yeah? The Jets chant bothers me
more for some reason. Well, because the Jets are never
any good? Is that? Why? Jack? That fireman guy back
in the day, But he had a legitimate fireman's helmet.
(16:36):
He had like a real medal, like like that was
like a legitimate helmet fireman. Ed got a lot of
TV time, but nobody gets more TV time than Jerry Jones.
And I know we'll get to the Cowboy game later,
but every every time the Cowboys scored on Monday night,
they showed Jerry making out with somebody in the owner's box.
It was fascinating men, women, anybody. He just wanted to
(16:57):
kiss and hug. It was a while. Uh all right.
Next up, let's get to the Sunday games on Benny
versus the Penny Divisional Round weekend. And then let's go
with Cincinnati twelve and four at Buffalo and three during
the regular season. This is the matchup that we did
not get to see on Monday night because a few
(17:20):
weeks ago because of the the injury that stopped the game.
And fortunately that is now passed, and and Hamlin is
good to go at least he's living and alive and
amongst us and all that. Now this game on CBS.
Jim Nance and Tony Romo have the call. The Bills
opened a three and a half point favorite, and they
(17:41):
are favored by five and a half, so less than
a touchdown. Many thought the Bills would be favored by
more than a touchdown, but only five and a half,
some saying there's value on Buffalo side. Most people think
this is another free money game Bills at home. How
what what could go wrong? And all that? Well, the
weather not gonna be a factor in this game. No
snow at kickoff, cloudy thirty six degrees at jam Pack
(18:07):
High Mark Stadium in this one. Some of the numbers,
some of the trends coming in. Cincinnati has covered eight
straight games as a dog, including the playoffs. That's the
longest active street going in the in the NFL right now,
and the past six times Cincinnati has been an underdog.
(18:28):
The game also went under if you're an over understate player.
We don't normally mess around with OBErs and unders on
benny versus the penny. It's just pure. We keep it
pure with with the point sprint now Joe Burrow fifteen
and seven in his career as an underdog, thirteen and
two against the spread as a dog of at least
(18:49):
three points. That is wicked good man is that good?
And Cincinnati five and one against the number their last
six playoff games. That goes back to but most of
that heavy lifting last year when the Ben Gals got
to the Super Bowl. So Buffalo, the only team that
(19:11):
has been favored in every game they played this season
is the Bill. Offense and defense, the whole deal. But Buffalo,
who started out like a wagon and they were great
man that was so good to begin the year. The
Bills over their last eleven games, if you've bet on
the Bills against the spread, you have gone three seven
(19:32):
and one. That's armageddon if you're a gambler, three seven
and one, oh and four against the spread their last
four games against teams with a winning record. I'm taking
the Bankers now summer writing off Cincinnati here because the
offensive line issues. Three starters appear out at the time
we're doing this, but we are writing with the natty.
(19:52):
Joe Burrow has shown that he can adapt. He's got
the Darwinism right adapted. I he can adapt to his surroundings.
The backups. Backups will be playing. But Joe Burrow showed
last year. I'm being a hype guy here. He showed
that with a week offensive line, he's still a samurai.
(20:15):
And Buffalo does not have Von Miller. They are no
longer as lethal as they had been. Buffalo almost almost
lost to a third string quarterback in Skyler Thompson last week. Now,
why did they do that? They lost because there were
a lot of that They almost lost because of a
lot of mistakes. You have the curious case of Josh Allen,
(20:39):
who is the real Josh Allen. This guy had the
most amazing playoff run last year. He's been dubbed Mr.
January by Tony Romo. Over the last month, Josh Allen
has been Jameis Winston of the thirty thirty year in
Tampa and my evidence against the Bears, the Patriots, and
(21:00):
the Dolphins, the last three opponents that Josh Allen has played,
He's got eight touchdowns and five interceptions plus four fumbles,
so nine turnover worthy plays and eight touchdowns. Buffalo three
and oh in those games. But that's juggling live hand
grenades here. Cincinnati's defense sneaky, good, opportunistic defense. The last
(21:24):
month their fifth in scoring defense. The Bills are actually
eighteen over the last month. What have you done for
me lately? And Cincinnati is the main reason I like
the Bengals. I know the offensive lines left up and
all that, but the ball hacking ability of the Bengals defense.
We saw it against the Ravens, the fumble the goal
line that was returned ninety yards for a touchdown, the
(21:45):
game breaking play against Baltimore last week. But over the
last month, Cincinnati leads the NFL enforced fumbles, So you
have a team that's mistake prone right now in Buffalo,
you've got a defense that is opportunistic at pulling the
ball out. And the arithmetic adds up to a close
(22:06):
game and Cincinnati spoiling the party, taking advantage of some
short fields here and getting her done. Bengals back in
the a f C title games, say today and so well,
it will not be playing in Atlanta in a neutral site.
That will be playing this game at Arrowhead Stadium. Bengals
seven bills and let the excuses rain down for Josh Allen.
(22:37):
And look at that. Two disagreements in a row. The
Penny going with the Bills, all right, So we have
gone back to back disagreements? Will we make it three disagreements?
Will find out right now the last game on the
card on Benny versus the Pennies. We grind through it.
On a divisional round of the playoffs, Dallas twelve and
(22:59):
five at San Francisco thirteen and four. It's on Fox
with Kevin Burkhardt and Greg Olsen. The Dallas Cowboys opened
up a four and a half point underdog, the Niners favored,
and the Niners are currently favored by three and a
half in this game. So the forty Niners getting that
(23:23):
hook is so you have to win by more than
the field goal. The money is almost dead even on
this at Levi's Stadium, mostly sunny at kickoff, temperatures in
the fifty high fifties, fifty seven degrees at kickoff. So
the forty Niners have won eleven straight games in that stretch.
(23:43):
They are nine and two against the spread, eight and
won their last nine games. It's been a magic carpet
right ever since they got Christian McCaffrey from Carolina and
Brock Purty the second rookie quarterbacks. It's the year two thousand,
almost a generation. Can you believe it's been almost a
(24:04):
generations in the year two thousand. That's crazy to me,
but that's the case anyway. So Brock party the second
quarterback since the year two thousand to be favored in
a playoff game in the divisional round or later. The
only other quarterback that has had that in the last
twenty three years is Dak Prescott. Dallas lost. They were
(24:25):
a five point favorite. That was way back in twenty sixteen,
seven years ago, and Dallas they've lost seven straight playoff
games as a dog. The last time a Dallas Cowboy
team pulled an upset in the playoffs nineteen ninety two,
(24:45):
the conference championship game, which was against the forty Niners.
Troy Aikman, Emmett Smith, Michael Irvan, we're getting four points
in that game. Dallas has been favored in twelve straight
games entering this week, the second longest active streaked. Dady
ends this will be the forty niners eleventh straight game
as a favorite. Bottom line, I'm taking the forty Niners
(25:08):
to pick is in. I'm taking the forty Niners. We
were on the Cowboys last week, but we are going
the other way now. Why you're only as good as
your next opponent, and the forty Niners are a wagon.
The Buccaneers were a hot wheels car. We tried to
tell you Tampa was a joke. They were a fraud.
And that's exactly the team that showed up in the
(25:29):
game at Raymond James Stadium on Monday night. Dak Prescott
is gonna have that glass slipper crack. He'll be staying
at the Heartache Hotel. San Francisco's defense has been the
real deal almost all year. They've had a couple of hiccups,
but they've been solid and they've gotten brock Purty. I
don't know how they've done it, but he's been the
(25:50):
alter ego of Jimmy Garoppolo. He's actually been a better
version of Garoppolo, which seemed impossible. Now, we were worried
about a meltdown against Seattle. We said that on Benny
versus the Penny last week, no chance. The Seahawks defense crumbled.
The forty Niners had nine real possessions. Take the one
out where they ran the clock out at the end
of the game. They've had nine real possessions. Or last
(26:13):
week wild Card weekend, they scored four field goals, they
had four touchdowns, and they punted once, put up five
yards of offense. Now that was against a much better,
much much worse defense. Is a much better opponent. Dallas
is a legit defense. In fact, this is the toughest
(26:33):
opponent that brock Purdy has played, the biggest test for
brock Purdy that he has faced in his young NFL career.
Based on the numbers, but the Niners, the whole is
greater than the sum of the parts. The the game plan,
I trust the coaching more. I'm not a big Mike
McCarthy guy. Trust Kyle Shanahan more in his head to
head matchup, and this should be a blowout, an absolute route,
(26:56):
and I'm going with the Niners in a rout. I
think that Cowboys come tumbling back down and Dak Prescott
is gonna be the wild thing, and not in a
good way. Here. We're gonna see more of the Dak
Prescott we saw against Washington and less of the Dak
Prescott we saw against an overrated and washed up bucketeer team.
Forty Niners thirty seven and the Cowboys is your final.
(27:27):
And just like last week, you only agreed with the
Penny on one game and one game alone because the
Penny is a fan of the Cowboys defense. That's too
many points for the Niners going with Dallas, all right,
So we'll see if things get harry for me again. Boy,
this could be really bad. This could be if I
(27:48):
if I have another crap weekend, I will be down
six games to the Penny based on the numbers. Now,
we could get some ties in there, we could get
a couple of pushes and all that. But are those
are the picks from member? Do with them as you
like you should handicap these games yourself. These are not
for entertainment purposes only Danny, because we don't have to
say that anymore. Gamblings legal in most places other than
(28:11):
the People's Republic of California, where we do the show from.
But these are changing times here, and only bet as
much as you can afford to lose. As we like
to say, we got a full week in the podcast though, Dan,
if you like this, great, but we'll be talking about
our lives and things that happened to us and stories
that have never been told before on the Saturday podcast.
(28:31):
We got the mail bag on Sunday, and so spend
some time with us. We are your weekend companion, myself
and Danny g and we will talk to you on
our next edition of the Fifth Hour. Have a great
rest of your day, and may all your pets win
(28:52):
and cover the spread. It's not whether you want to lose,
it's did you cover the spread? We'll talk to you
next time later. Skater Bophylation
Host
Ben Maller
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