January 18, 2026 • 38 mins
In this episode of the Duncan Duo Show, Andrew Duncan shares his insights on the Tampa Bay real estate market. He discusses the impact of the Trump administration's policies, including the recent mortgage-backed securities buy, which has led to a short-term drop in interest rates. Andrew also touches on the effects of California's proposed billionaire tax and the potential influx of wealthy individuals moving to Florida. He emphasizes the importance of being prepared for a potentially booming market in 2026 and offers advice for real estate agents and homebuyers.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
I'by Sunday, Tampa Bay.
Speaker 2 (00:01):
We're with you for another week here to talk about
the Tampa Bay real estate market like we are every
Sunday at ten here on the Duncan Duo Show. When
we're not on air, make sure to fall us on
all of our socials at the Duncan Duo X, Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, TikTok,
you name it. At the Duncan Duo follow us. We're
always putting out relevant content to keep you updated on
(00:23):
all things real estate in Tampa Bay. Lots of things
happening in the political world applying to real estate, and
I want to break a few of those down just
to help you understand how it impacts the market and
what you can be prepared for. First and foremost, the
Trump administration has made it very clear that they want
(00:45):
to have some impact on housing affordability and some positive
swings in the real estate market. They have obviously pressured
the FED to lower rates. It doesn't I don't think
we're going to get more FED rate cuts until there's
a potential new FED chair a little later in the
year that has to get appointed and then voted sworn
(01:06):
in and all that. So that's going to take some time,
but we've floated the idea of portable mortgages fifty year mortgages,
which I don't think are really going to have much
of an impact. We have now come to the place
where we're going to regulate out, or potentially regulate out
(01:26):
large institutional investors from buying single family homes. That is
another focus of an executive order of the Trump administration.
Again probably truthfully a small impact in terms of what
it will what it will do, the percentage of the
percentage of people that are are are kind of put
out by the institutional investors. For you know, from a
(01:48):
buying standpoint, it's not that much. I mean, Tampa's one
of the prime markets for it, but it's not a lot.
They're not buying like they used to and certainly not
pushing out as many families as they used to. That
would have been a lot more effective during the COVID
years or pre COVID years than it is now in
terms of the activity of them buying for rent. The
(02:08):
numbers just don't make sense in our market based on
taxes and insurances, so that's not much of an impact.
I do think we'll see continued FED rate cuts in
the second half of this year. I do think Tampa
Bay will have a positive real estate market this year,
simply from the momentum of the further away from the hurricanes,
(02:29):
the potential property tax relief that our state is floating,
which I think we'll move some people here continue no
state income tax, while other states are pushing legislation that
is going to push people out, specifically wealthy people. California
right now is floating a billionaire tax, basically a five
percent revocation of wealth to the state, which is the
(02:51):
craziest thing I've ever heard. It is being floated and
it is causing tech successful tech entrepreneurs nass to leave.
They're losing so much money just by floating this crazy idea,
thinking that people that already pay thirteen percent in state
income tax are now going to agree to let California
(03:11):
take their wealth from the companies they've created. So all
kinds of stuff on x about that, But the point
of that is is that is going to move more
people to Florida. Now, the biggest target for that is
probably Miami, but there are a lot of people that
are going to get attracted to the Tampa Bay area
as an alternate when they tour Miami and maybe it's
not their vibe, and then they come to Tampa. So again,
a lot of positive things. But the thing that the
(03:33):
Trump administration did recently do that did have a considerable
instantaneous impact on mortgage rates that I will tell you
is going is a short term window. Was a two
hundred billion dollar mortgage backed securities buy from Fanny and Freddy.
Now that instantly cut interest rates almost a quarter of
a point in the same day, they drop down pretty heavily.
(03:55):
We're seeing rates in the fives now, We're seeing buyers
get off the fence. We're seeing some sell because they
can buy and get something in the fives and sell
their house and the threes are the fours and not
feel like they're getting hose. It is going to move
the needle on momentum in our market. We're going to
see more transactions this year. We're going to see higher prices,
not dramatic on the higher prices. I want to make
(04:16):
it clear by kind of putting us into a framework
not compared to what we saw during the COVID years
where we're in twenty seven to thirty percent appreciation, but
I could see a year where we might see a
five percent increase in our average sell price, maybe to
outpace inflation for the first time in a few years.
So lots of good things, but the Trump administration. The
(04:37):
reason why I want to make it clear that this
is short term is because eventually those bonds are going
to kind of run out and the money is going
to have been spent, and then rates will float back
up again. So this is a short term window. So
if you have been thinking about buying and you don't
want to wait until the end of the year, now
would be the right time. How long the rates stay
(04:59):
where they are now now with the with the NBS spy,
it is hard to say, but it is a short
term window because when that runs out, they'll bump back
up again until there's more FED relief or you know,
qualitative easing, printing money. There are certainly things the government
could do to lower rates more outside of just a
FED but right now, that is a short term window.
So you know, I want to encourage you that if
(05:22):
you looked six months or a year ago, or you're
thinking about, you know, doing something in a relatively near future,
you should jump off the fence and do it now,
or it's going to cost you more money simply from
rates rising until what I suspect would be some relief
again late in the year with a new FED chair.
And there's no guarantee of that certainly, you know, I
(05:43):
believe that Trump administration wants that to happen, but there's
certainly no guarantee that that happens. So so those are
all things that are that are happening in a real
estate market. That are you know, that are that are
moving it both politically and then locally. So again you're
listening to the Duncan Do a real estate show Andrew
Duncan at the Duncan Duo. Twitter, Instagram, YouTube, TikTok. I
(06:05):
saw an article this week that the National Association Realtors
is calling for federal incentives to spur investor sales, and
and of course one of the obstacles you've got GNAR
pushing this, and then you've got the President kind of
against it. I'm definitely a free market person. I don't
love a lot of the overreach into the market, except
(06:28):
for when you know, maybe it's like the FED for example,
I don't I don't love the how they've determined to
control interest rates in a free market compared to everyone
else in the world. At the same time, I feel
like there's just a lot of overreach into let's let's
do this, let's do that, and I think most of
those things don't end very well. You need to let
the market shake itself out and and too much influence
(06:52):
one way or the other can have dire consequences in
the long term. So I want to I want to
preface this by saying that I'm very pro real estate,
and I'm optimistic, and I love the movement from GNAR
and from you know, from the administration to help kind of,
you know, recover our real estate market. In a bit,
I think some of that is in response to a
lot of people's belief that the FED has not been
(07:14):
aggressive enough in cutting rates, and some of these artificial
steps to try and stoke the real estate market might
have already been taken care of had that not happen.
But nonetheless, I'm very much a free market guy, so
when I see these things happening, it does cause me concerns.
We've gone down these paths before. So the good news, though,
(07:34):
a positive real estate market in twenty six is already underway.
In Tampa, already seeing record visits on my website. We
had a December is our best month of the year.
January is going to be on pace with December, which
is super rare. January February usually really slow, So a
good start of the year. Speaking of good starts of
(07:54):
the year, if you want to start your year with
a waterfront property in Bay Crest, Man got one of
the one of the best waterfront opportunities on the market
right now. Four six four three Bay Crest Drive. This
is in Baycrest Park. I lived in this area for
a long time and I really do like this area.
This is a three bedroom, three bath private pool waterfront
(08:18):
listed for eight twenty five, just short of nineteen hundred
square feet. You know, beautiful property, waterfront oasis, great vacation opportunity,
custom built wine cellar, luxury functionality and fun. Waterfront views
inspire in the you know, four panel glass just to
(08:39):
features go on and on and on. Check out the
pictures on our website. Another thing that I really love
about the home, You've got a floor plan. It's kind
of good for entertaining, but also good for you know,
formal rooms. Two hundred plus square foot dot complete with
the six thousand pound boat lift and a four hundred
and sixty two square foot bonus space perfect for a
(09:02):
game room, gym, or additional additional suite. So this area
in general, I lived there for several years, and you know,
the thing I liked about it was that it was waterfront.
It didn't seem to have as many obstacles with storms
just based on how the canals are set up. I
also liked the commute wasn't too bad. I could get
(09:23):
in and out of downtown Tampa while not being in
downtown Tampa. I didn't feel as congested as South Tampa
and that area in general when I lived there. One
of the drawbacks was that didn't have as many restaurants,
that didn't have as much commercial development, and that has
massively changed. So definitely a great house, a wonderful water
for an opportunity. And again that address is four six
(09:46):
four to three Baycrest Drive listed at eight twenty five.
You can get more information. You can google address, you
can see our YouTube video, you can go to our
website at the dunkin Duo dot com and look at
our featured properties. But a great opportunity on the market
right now, And speaking of waterfront and luxury homes on
the market. That is one of the places in our
market that I am very bullish about. You know, I
(10:07):
mentioned it in the beginning of the show, and I
think as we start this year, you know, so far
this year, we had a seven million dollar closing, We've
got multiple multi million dollar offers out there. We've got
you know, homes above a million coming on the market.
And so the reason why I think there's so much
(10:28):
momentum in our high end market this year is some
of it is pent up. That market got smoked from
the hurricanes. No like, it zapped a lot of demand
for last year because so many of those homes were
damaged and it took a while to rebuild them. Some
of the infrastructure was damaged, some of the areas around
some of the waterfront, and then there was a fear
(10:49):
factor of people deciding and thinking about moving somewhere else.
People have a short attention span. That hurricane stuck around
for a little bit, But now it's kind of off
the radar. That hurricane season we had that was bad.
So now you've had a year and a half since
you've got a new segment of buyers that are looking
that hurricane story is a year and a half in
the past. People aren't paying attention to it. So I
(11:11):
think that has a really positive impact on our high
end market because that was a lot of the real
estate that was affected by Helene and Milton in twenty
twenty four. So another reason our luxury real estate market
is going to continue doing well. You have these polarizing
political plays in states like California New York. I mentioned
the billionaire tax and the thirteen point three percent state
(11:33):
income tax in California. That is moving wealthy people away
from California. And there's plenty of those people because the
way California is set up, it's very spread out in
southern California and even in northern California. And there's a
lot of people that go to Miami and they don't
like how congested it is, or they don't like how
(11:53):
you know, they just don't like the setup. So I
think Tampa's going to benefit a lot from those wealthy
people from California. And then, of course in New York
and in the Northeast, you've got you know, you've got
a mayor in New York that is very polarizing and
very socialist in nature, and it is causing plenty of
New Yorkers to say, oh, I don't know if I
want to keep living here and get taxed to death.
(12:15):
I don't know if I love these new policies. And
even before they give him a chance to see if
these things work, there's plenty of them that just naturally
want to leave. So I think you're going to see
an exodus of that. And then I think you're gonna
but those states are also going to gain in population.
I think there's gonna be people that want to move
and live in that, but probably I think an algorithm
(12:36):
of wealth probably alternating. You know, if you think about
you know, like like the stock market, how major hedge
funds or large banks will alternate to rotate out of
certain asset classes depending on the time of year, depending
on how that market's doing. I think you're going to
see the same thing. I don't think those areas are
going to stop being desirable for people to live in.
I just think you're going to see a rotation out
(12:56):
of the people and the income that live there. I
think you're going to see people that are wealthy that
don't want to be taxed moving out of those areas
and moving to areas like Florida where we don't have
that state income tax and where we potentially have an
abolishment of a homestead property tax, and that is certainly
on the agenda and something I'm paying attention to. So
we're going to continue this conversation about the Tampa Bay
(13:17):
real estate market after a quick break here on the
Duncan Duo Show. So we're back here on the Duncan
Duo Show talking about the Tampa Bay real estate market.
Andrew Duncan, the Duncan Duo TMLPT Realty. When we aren't
on there, make sure to follo us on all of
our socials at the Duncan Duo. I was talking to
my team this week, and I know I have a
lot of real estate agents that listen to the show
or people that are kind of adjacent to the real
(13:37):
estate industry. And one of the things that I wanted
to mention on the show for anyone that is in
the real estate business or maybe in a comparable market
like mortgage. One of the things that I said to
my team this week was, you know, I suspect twenty
six and twenty seven to be massively better and potentially
twenty seven than late twenty six even a boom for
(13:59):
the residential real estate market in Tampa Bay, and we've
already started to see that pick up early in the year,
And unfortunately, I think there are a lot of real
estate agents out there that are going to fail at
capitalizing on it because they're running off the same twenty
twenty five operating system and then they're expected to get
busier in twenty six. So one of the things that
(14:19):
I've really encouraged our agents to do is, you know,
really have a good solid grasp on their time, manage
their time, better time block, be coachable to someone who's
been through these ups and these downs in the market,
Because if you're going to succeed in a market where
there's more transactions and more money to be made and
more opportunities to serve your clients, you can't create more
(14:42):
time in the day, but you can become more efficient
with your time. And I think the most successful real
estate agents in twenty six, you know that learn and adapt,
are going to do just that, simply not operating the
same way they did in twenty five. So you know,
if you're else agent and you're listening to this, the
(15:02):
best advice I have for you is really sit down
and get a better game plan, manage your time better,
and inject a better operating system into your life and
business to be able to capitalize. Because if you're set
up to do, you know, ten deals, you're going to
do ten deals. If you want to do twenty deals
or thirty deals, you better be set up to be
able to handle twenty or thirty deals because if you
operate from a ten deal mindset and a ten deal
(15:23):
time structure, you're gonna fail and you're gonna you're gonna
not serve a lot of your clients. So that's my
real estate tip for uh, you know, for this week.
So speaking of you know kind, I touched on this
a little bit earlier, but the drop in mortgage rates,
this is also a major opportunity for people to refinance
that have been sitting on the fence. If you've been
(15:45):
thinking about lowering your payment, if you've been thinking about,
you know, getting rid of your PMI, if you've been
paying attention to mortgage rates. We're at the lowest mortgage
rates that we've seen in three years now. There is
a suspicion that will get to lower rates in the
later half of this year. But maybe you can't wait,
and maybe that doesn't happen. There's a lot of variables
at play, but Trump buying mortgage backed securities in the
(16:08):
amount of two hundred billion push rates down about a
quarter point. So if your interest rate is in the
high sixes or into the sevens, you should definitely look
at refinancing. Go to citywide Tampa dot com, especially if
you have a VA or FAHA mortgage. There's so many
people that don't know this. VA and FHA allow you
to a streamline refinance product to simply lower your rate,
(16:28):
not cost you out of pocket money. It allows you
to lower your rate while not going through the typical
hassles and qualification, meaning that if the house you know
isn't if the house won't a praise, or if maybe
you wouldn't qualify today but you would have a few
years ago.
Speaker 1 (16:45):
Uh.
Speaker 2 (16:45):
Those are things that that are are less much less
relevant in a streamline refinance than in a typical refinance
or a typical purchase. So we have a we have
a couple of few great loan officers, you know Megan,
excuse me, Melissa Morgan combined those two there real quick.
Melissa Morgan and Oscar on our team that can help
(17:05):
you do a refinance. You just have to go to citywide,
to Tampa dot com. There's so many people out there
that can benefit from this. And again, could you wait
and maybe it goes lower? Possibly, but it could also
end up higher and the savings that you would have
over the next you know, several months or up to
a year before rates drop to the low. And the
reason why I say right now is the time to
maximize on the refinance is because the Trump mortgage backed
(17:28):
security buy that he did, where he's using Fanny and
Freddie money to buy two hundred billion in mortgage backed securities.
It is a short term thing. Okay, it instantly lowered rates.
Once that is kind of used up, the rates will
float back up again until there's more action from the
Fed or more action and treasuries. And that's not likely
to happen under the current FED chair. And based on
(17:50):
the economic data that's coming out, I suspect we won't.
We may not see another rate cut until March or
April at the earliest, and may not any at all
based on the political tension between Trump and Powell. So
the mortgage backed security buy was is a short term
window that will not last forever, so we could see
do I think we eventually get to a place where
(18:10):
rates are lower than they are right now? Yes, I
think we do. How long that takes is the question.
And if you're in a tough spot financially, if you've
missed some payments, if you've if you've you know, had
some job loss, if your property isn't worth what it
used to be, that you can still do a streamline
refinance and lower your payment. So again, the easiest way
to do that, you can go right to the application page,
(18:32):
and if you've got questions, you can definitely contact Melissa
Melissa Oscar Morgan directly from that link. And it's very
easy to remember city wide Tampa, so it's city wide Tampa,
citywide Tampa dot com. Just go to that link, go
right to the application, start your process, and mention when
you speak to them that you heard it on our
(18:53):
radio show here on w FLA News. So again, great
opportunity for refinance. Right now, there are plus any of
sellers that we're meeting with that are kind of weighing
that right they're weighing the financial benefits of do I
refinance or do I sell. That is one downside of
refinancing is you can't sell while you're refinancing. So if
your house is on the market and you're going to
do a refinance, it may have to come off the
(19:14):
market in order to qualify to do that. So we're
going to continue this conversation with our next segment on
the other side after a break here on the Duncan
Duo Show.
Speaker 1 (19:23):
St back here on the Duncan Duo Show.
Speaker 2 (19:24):
More optimistic real estate news out there this week. But
I want to make it something really clear, Okay, when
you have the.
Speaker 1 (19:32):
Real estate is the slowest moving.
Speaker 2 (19:35):
Market in the world. Again, this is Andrew Duncan to
Duncan do a TEMLPT realty. I have friends that, do
you know, private equity. I have friends that have millions
of dollars in stock market. I have people that do
a ton of crypto. Those are really volatle markets, meaning
that you can see like five and ten percent swings
in a day, much less sometimes even an hour, much
less months of the time. The reason why the real
(19:57):
estate market is such a stable place for am investment
and a stable place for to see things and how
they work is because it is so slow moving the
things that happen in real estate take a long time
to trickle down to actually having an impact on prices.
So when you hear this optimistic news, okay, it doesn't
(20:18):
mean the prices are all of a sudden rising. Okay,
it doesn't mean that it's now all of a sudden
massively more expensive, or that you can ask more for
your home. That that just isn't reality. We've been in
a depreciating especially when you compare to inflation, a depreciating
market for you know, a year plus, meaning that homes
aren't selling for slightly less than what they sold for
(20:38):
three or six months ago. We're starting to see that
corner turn where things stabilize and maybe we see some
decent appreciation this year, but it's not here yet. So
when you hear this, just know that it's kind of like,
you know, if you're paying attention to a stock and
news hit, the stock would surge instantly. Okay, when real
estate news hits, it doesn't surge prices instantly. However, it
(21:02):
is a really good sign towards future benefits if those
things keep up. So it's just slower moving. Those positive
things that happen definitely lead towards if they continue to
pile up increases in our prices. But it doesn't it
doesn't lead to instantaneous, instant gratification like in crypto or
(21:23):
the stock market. So, US December, existing home sales increased
five point one percent and pending home sales hit the
highest number nationally in three years. And we're seeing some
of the same thing in Tampa. So what does that
mean to you as a buyer or a seller of
real estate in Tampa Bay. It means that if those
things keep up, we're probably heading towards a better real
estate market in twenty six. Again, assuming no hurricanes, assuming
(21:47):
no national disasters, we're heading towards a better twenty twenty
six real estate market than we saw in twenty five.
We're heading towards more transactions and higher prices. But those
things need to keep up. Your price doesn't automatically get
higher because we had a good month. Those things need
to build on each other. But as a smart buyer
or a smart investor, these are the things that should
tip you off to start thinking about pivoting and looking
(22:09):
into investing in real estate. I taught a class this
week about buying rental properties at one point, I owned,
you know, to a lot of rental property, and I've
divested of some of it and certainly moved that money
into other investments and other properties. But it is a
great time to think about that is before the price
(22:29):
to start surging.
Speaker 1 (22:31):
So so real.
Speaker 2 (22:33):
Estate investing is something we teach our agents, but it's
something we're you know, we're proud of. And the last
couple of years, it's been hard to look at real
estate and say, yeah, let me let me invest here,
unless you unless you were able to get some killer deal.
You saw money moving to other things. That is starting
to change. You saw real estate stocks and mortgage stocks
(22:53):
increasing pretty considerably over the last couple couple of weeks,
with with the action from the Trump administration and his
discussion of wanting to improve the real estate market. Whether
or not you agree with his actions, the actions do
have an intended consequence of a very quick improvement in
real estate. So all of these things lead towards if
(23:15):
you're fearful of a market crash, you know every month
that we pile up existing home sales and pitting home
sales increasing, the market is telling us, even though it
moves slower than some of these other markets. It's heading
in a direction where things are going to be pretty healthy.
So home buyers expect that if this news continues and
(23:35):
you wait, it's going to cost you more. Okay, home sellers,
if you're upgrading, you should be looking to do that now.
You should be getting your house on the market to
go out and buy, because far too often I see
home sellers stay, oh, I want to wait until my
price gets to I got a four hundred and fifty
thousand dollars house. I want to wait till my house
gets to five hundred so I can go buy my
million dollar house. Had this conversation this week. Well, you know,
(23:58):
so your four to fifty gets to five hundred. You
know that's roughly a twelve percent you know, a little
short of a twelve percent increase. What do you think
your million's gonna do? Think it's gonna stay the same.
I think it's in a vacuum. It's gonna go up
twelve percent too. You just lost money by waiting to
get the number you want out of your house. Far
too many sellers get this emotional attachment to a number,
and it's bad math, especially in a move up scenario.
(24:21):
So sellers, especially if they're buying, they should be selling
right now and taking advantage of this window where rates
are lower. Buyers should obviously be doing it too, because
the data is starting to point to the direction of
an improved real estate market. And if we boom in
twenty seven, then you're gonna win with great appreciation. There's
so many people that are gonna just wait and wait
and wait, and they're gonna miss it, or they're gonna
(24:42):
wait until it's too late and they're gonna overpay. And
one of the things that I've seen in real estate
markets through the years is when rates get lower, and
we suspect late twenty six and twenty seven, we're gonna
see more interestrate relief. Okay. When they get lower, prices
rise dramatic. Okay. People buy real estate based on the payment.
(25:04):
The majority of the time, it's the payment, not the price.
So if that happens and you wait, you missed it, Okay,
you missed the gain. You bought the asset too late,
you bought it aft it already went up. You want
to buy it before it does that, okay. So this
data is starting to trickle out, it's kind of pointing
you in the direction that things are going to get
improved in real estate and home sellers. The other reason
(25:26):
why you should look at doing it now, especially if
you're moving up, is because you have to pay more
attention to the value proposition on your buy and the
dollar exchange on your buy than you are to your sell. Okay,
if you're moving up, if you're buying a higher priced
home and you expect prices are going to rise, you're
losing by waiting, and people don't understand that. I literally
(25:47):
I had two conversations this week with sellers who were
waiting until they can get a certain number to go
out and buy their more expensive house. And not because
they have to need the monthy, not because they have
to because they can qualify with the price that the
market will bear for their home, they can qualify to
buy the new home. They're just you know, there, it's
not a quality, it's an ego. It's a mental thing.
(26:08):
It's a I want to get to five hundred because
I want to get to five hundred, And then they're
losing money out of their egos. So the reality is
that home sellers are upgrading need to act sooner. The
only people where it really makes sense, you know, to
sit and wait. Are home sellers that are downgrading if
(26:30):
the if the suspicion is that prices are going to rise, well, yeah,
the home seller that's moving from a five hundred to
a two fifty will make more money selling their five
hundred than the than the loss and buying their two fifty.
So again, and the last segment of that, and the
last part of that that matters is what is going
on in the real estate market where you're buying. If
(26:50):
you're doing it in the same metro area and the
same market, everything I talked about applies. The only time
where it may not apply or may apply more aggressively,
is if you're buying into a real estate market that
is more aggressively growing or declining than the one you're
selling in. So those things certainly matter, but far too
often people don't have the vision to look ahead. It's funny.
(27:15):
One of my passions is cars, and I enjoy as
a hobby racing cars, and so I go to the
Motor Enclave on Sundays sometimes and there's a driver's club
thing that I'm a part of, and there's an instructor
there that's a professional race car driver that takes you
out and tells you you know what to do and
gives you this idea. And I thought of this great
(27:38):
analogy when he was telling me this while I was
driving one of my cars, and he said, you have
to look not just at the next turn, but you
have to be looking two or three turns ahead to
where you need to position your car. And it was
such a great analogy because it tells you how important
vision is, especially when you're moving fast in the vehicle.
You can't just be looking at that turnament, oh, now
(27:58):
it's time for me to handle this turn. You have
to know before you get to that turn where you're
going to be. And it's the same so as you
go out and you watch people that haven't gone on
a racetrack before and they haven't had instruction before, they
screw up all the time because they don't start turning
the turn and getting in the right spot until the
turn right. And so it's interesting when you see sometimes
(28:19):
these people that don't listen and they're they're they're sliding
all over the track, or you know, they're almost crashing,
or sometimes sometimes they are crashing, like there's been a
few crashes there. So it's the same thing for for
for real estate people, for people that are selling their house. Okay,
you cannot make the decision based on the turn that
(28:40):
you're in, the house that you're in. You have to
make the right real estate decision based on the actions
after that too, And so many people don't take that
into consideration. They say, I'm gonna sell, but I can't
sell until I get five hundred. Well, why can't you
sell because I really want five hundred. Okay, so you're
gonna wait for price to rise twelve percent, And the
same thing is gonna happen with what you're buying. If
you're buying some the more expensive, you're losing money. You're
(29:02):
you're being a stubborn idiot. And so you're basically being
the guy at the racetrack that says, I'm not going
to turn the wheel for this turn until I get
to the turn, instead of positioning yourself accordingly to be
able to handle the other turns that are coming. So
hopefully that makes sense, but it's definitely a common concern
that I have when I talk to people that are
(29:23):
that are in this space right now. So again, just
to summarize real estate, slowest moving market in the world,
you know, you you look at silver and gold and
they skyrocketed recently. Right, Bitcoin will have periods of time
where it goes up five or ten percent in days.
Certain stocks will twenty thirty forty percent surges in a day. Okay.
(29:45):
Real estate doesn't do that. All of the policy that
you hear about, you know, the data, the mortgage backed
security buy, the existing home sales increasing, the you know
in Tampa, the you know a year away from a hurricane,
or you know, property taxes might get abolished. Like none
of those things instantly moon real estate. Okay, it is
(30:08):
so slow moving. It will take time for all of
that to trickle down and have an impact positively on
real estate sales. And it will take a long period
of time in an antiquated industry. And let's face it,
real estate is antiquated. Okay. I mean we're still we're
still signing documents at title companies, and I mean there's
(30:28):
still people mailing checks, like title companies mail checks. And
I just laughed to myself thinking some of these other
businesses I'm a part of and involved with, I couldn't
imagine like, you know, calling up, you know, some bank
and mailing me a check. It's just it's just crazy.
So real estate, it's antiquated, it's slow. These things that
(30:48):
happen are not going to move the needle like you think.
If you're behind and you're down on your house and
you hear all this news, it doesn't mean it's all
of a sudden up. Okay, it will take a lot,
It will take months of that consistency in order to
move the needle. With real estate values, there's just so
many hands in the cookie jar. You've got insurance, you've
got taxes, you've got these other costs. You've got neighbors,
(31:08):
you've got their financial positions, you've got comps. It's just
so hard to value it. It's not like owning a
stock or a coin that is a commodity. There's a
uniqueness to it. So hopefully that helps you understand real
estate and it's in a full perspective and what this
positive stuff that's happening means for the long term. But
more than anything, the biggest point I want to get
(31:29):
across is if you're a home seller selling your home
to upgrade, stop stop putting the primary emphasis on what
you get out of your house unless you have to
get that amount. If you have to get that amount
because you can't qualify or you don't have enough money
to buy the next house, that's different. But if you're
doing it out of ego or trying to hit a target,
or wanting to beat your neighbor, or wanting to get
to a certain number to make you feel more comfortable,
(31:50):
not qualified just for you to feel better, you're losing money.
You're losing money because the house that you're going to
buy is going up if it goes up with the
same clip you lost. So hopefully that helps you make
the right decisions. And when you're ready to make the
right decision, hit up Duncan Duo dot com for your
free home value estimate. You can set an appointment with
one of our top agents. Whether you're looking to sell
an inexpensive property or a super luxury, high end property.
(32:12):
We'll align you with the right agent on our team,
the specialist and the market that you're looking to sell within.
And you could do that again at Duncan Duo dot com. Again,
that is Duncan Duo dot Com. We'll be back to
wrap up the last segment after a quick break here
on WFLA News, So back here on the Duncan duo
show talking about the Tampa Bay real estate market Andrew Duncan,
the Duncan duo team LPT Realty. So just you know,
(32:37):
had something interesting pop up this week. And I'm a
big proponent of using AI. I'm a Grock person, I'm
an Elon guy. In fact, I've got a SpaceX T
shirt on today because I'm an investor in SpaceX. And
so the interesting thing about AI, it is so moving
(32:58):
so fast that it is is starting to outpace humans
in terms of how how quickly it can do things
in its own analysis. But where it hasn't you know,
at least in my opinion, nailed it yet, is home values,
and it's it's going to have a hard time doing that.
Speaker 1 (33:17):
So I ran through and.
Speaker 2 (33:19):
And specifically especially with luxury stuff, but I ran through
some properties this week with Grock, asking it to value
the property knowing what I know about the neighborhood or
the property, and it was pretty far off. Because it's
using all the online aggregators to pull its data. Right,
So it's going to Zillow or homes dot com or
(33:41):
realtor dot com or or wherever, and it's pulling data
and that's how it's kind of calculating it and it's
looking at tax rolls. Well, the problem is that those
sites are markedly off if if an automatic valuation.
Speaker 1 (33:56):
And I'm not saying it won't get there, because.
Speaker 2 (33:57):
I think there's certainly a chance that it will, and
I think there is a chance that it's not a chance.
It has gotten better in neighborhoods where there's you know,
where the houses are very comparable, where there's you know,
it's very you know, kind of consistent in a neighborhood.
If you've got a neighborhood in Riverview where all the
houses are between four and six hundred thousand, and they're
(34:19):
all kind of comparable, they're all built around the same time,
it can be relatively accurate there. It can be accurate
in condo buildings, but where it struggles is with unique
or higher end homes. So you know, I've had customers
be like, oh, well, I put it in chat GPT
or I put it in GROCK and it said I
was worth this. And if the automation was effective enough,
(34:41):
then Zillo wouldn't have lost billions billions with a B
buying and selling real estate. Zillo got out of the
buying and selling real estate business. They had all the data,
they were the leading firm in the space. They opened
up this huge portal where consumers can sell their homes
to directly to Zilo, and then Zillow would turn around
(35:01):
flip them and sell them. Zillo abandoned it because they
were losing money hand over fists because what they learned
is computers can't get inside the house. There's still enough
variables at play that computers can't quite calculate, and consumers
can't do an inspection. They can't determine what might be
wrong with the house, what's not up to code. Those
things don't exist with valuing a lot of other things. Now.
(35:25):
Value in commercial property or income property, that's a math,
that's a math equation. But when you get into residential
real estate, especially if you're looking at luxury stuff, it's
not very accurate yet. I plugged in a particular luxury
property and it valued it based on all the inputs
I put in. It was like thirty five percent over market.
I was like, man, I Grock, please buy the house
(35:46):
for that. So it's getting there. It is an incredible tool,
but it is not up to part yet. With valuing
real estate. It can do a lot of great things,
and maybe it will get there. Maybe with photos and
sure things that you can load into it. It'll eventually improve,
and I think it'll probably be there at some point
in the future. But it isn't there yet. So if
(36:07):
you've grocked your home or plugged it into CLAW or
chat GBT and you want to know what it's worth,
and you're asking AI what your house is worth, it
isn't there yet. I promise you I've done it, I've
tested it's it's it's off again in the circumstances that
it is accurate. It's it's typically going to be in
a in a condo building where they're all the same,
(36:30):
or where there is a lot of product exactly or
specifically comparable, same floor plants, same year built, you know,
same architectural design, same builder, all those things. When when
that's present, it can it can get pretty close. But
we do live, especially if you go across Tampa Bay
into some of our most high priced communities, that's not
(36:51):
what you see. You don't see the cookie cutter. You
see a lot of different architectural designs. You see big houses,
small houses in those areas and neighborhoods which is a
lot out of Tampa Bay. It's not there yet. So
there are a lot of things AI is doing. There
are a lot of things that can help with It's
an incredible tool, but it hasn't quite grasped how to
(37:13):
evaluate real property yet. So again, you're listening to the
Dunkin do a real estate show when we aren't on air,
make sure to follow us all of our socials. We
are at the Duncan Duo. Twitter, Instagram, YouTube, TikTok, Facebook.
I said Twitter, I mean to say X. I gotta
get that right. I gotta say X. If you're a
real estate agent and you didn't have the year you
wanted to have in twenty five, I want you to
(37:35):
have the year that you want to have in twenty six.
We're looking to grow. We launch a new market VIP
program with realtor dot Com that is already having our
agents outright and offers and putting homes under contract within
just a few weeks, and we are looking to hire agents.
So if you didn't have the year that you wanted,
if you don't feel like you're getting coached, if you
also don't feel like you're learning about wealth building, we
(37:57):
do a wealth building. Wednesday's class at the office right
the agents, things I've done to grow my wealth and
make good financial decisions. And then we bring in guest
speakers and and you know, so our goal is having
real estate entrepreneurs that we can coach and grow and
then it can also go out and build and make
good financial decisions as well. So if that's something of interest,
(38:18):
you can go to join the duo dot com. You
can apply for our open positions. There, you can set
a calendarly appointment, you can message directly with our team.
You can also register for upcoming career nights. Again, that
is at jointheduo dot com. Thanks so much for tuning
in and have an awesome rest of your Sunday, Tampa
Bay
I'by Sunday, Tampa Bay.
Speaker 2 (00:01):
We're with you for another week here to talk about
the Tampa Bay real estate market like we are every
Sunday at ten here on the Duncan Duo Show. When
we're not on air, make sure to fall us on
all of our socials at the Duncan Duo X, Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, TikTok,
you name it. At the Duncan Duo follow us. We're
always putting out relevant content to keep you updated on
(00:23):
all things real estate in Tampa Bay. Lots of things
happening in the political world applying to real estate, and
I want to break a few of those down just
to help you understand how it impacts the market and
what you can be prepared for. First and foremost, the
Trump administration has made it very clear that they want
(00:45):
to have some impact on housing affordability and some positive
swings in the real estate market. They have obviously pressured
the FED to lower rates. It doesn't I don't think
we're going to get more FED rate cuts until there's
a potential new FED chair a little later in the
year that has to get appointed and then voted sworn
(01:06):
in and all that. So that's going to take some time,
but we've floated the idea of portable mortgages fifty year mortgages,
which I don't think are really going to have much
of an impact. We have now come to the place
where we're going to regulate out, or potentially regulate out
(01:26):
large institutional investors from buying single family homes. That is
another focus of an executive order of the Trump administration.
Again probably truthfully a small impact in terms of what
it will what it will do, the percentage of the
percentage of people that are are are kind of put
out by the institutional investors. For you know, from a
(01:48):
buying standpoint, it's not that much. I mean, Tampa's one
of the prime markets for it, but it's not a lot.
They're not buying like they used to and certainly not
pushing out as many families as they used to. That
would have been a lot more effective during the COVID
years or pre COVID years than it is now in
terms of the activity of them buying for rent. The
(02:08):
numbers just don't make sense in our market based on
taxes and insurances, so that's not much of an impact.
I do think we'll see continued FED rate cuts in
the second half of this year. I do think Tampa
Bay will have a positive real estate market this year,
simply from the momentum of the further away from the hurricanes,
(02:29):
the potential property tax relief that our state is floating,
which I think we'll move some people here continue no
state income tax, while other states are pushing legislation that
is going to push people out, specifically wealthy people. California
right now is floating a billionaire tax, basically a five
percent revocation of wealth to the state, which is the
(02:51):
craziest thing I've ever heard. It is being floated and
it is causing tech successful tech entrepreneurs nass to leave.
They're losing so much money just by floating this crazy idea,
thinking that people that already pay thirteen percent in state
income tax are now going to agree to let California
(03:11):
take their wealth from the companies they've created. So all
kinds of stuff on x about that, But the point
of that is is that is going to move more
people to Florida. Now, the biggest target for that is
probably Miami, but there are a lot of people that
are going to get attracted to the Tampa Bay area
as an alternate when they tour Miami and maybe it's
not their vibe, and then they come to Tampa. So again,
a lot of positive things. But the thing that the
(03:33):
Trump administration did recently do that did have a considerable
instantaneous impact on mortgage rates that I will tell you
is going is a short term window. Was a two
hundred billion dollar mortgage backed securities buy from Fanny and Freddy.
Now that instantly cut interest rates almost a quarter of
a point in the same day, they drop down pretty heavily.
(03:55):
We're seeing rates in the fives now, We're seeing buyers
get off the fence. We're seeing some sell because they
can buy and get something in the fives and sell
their house and the threes are the fours and not
feel like they're getting hose. It is going to move
the needle on momentum in our market. We're going to
see more transactions this year. We're going to see higher prices,
not dramatic on the higher prices. I want to make
(04:16):
it clear by kind of putting us into a framework
not compared to what we saw during the COVID years
where we're in twenty seven to thirty percent appreciation, but
I could see a year where we might see a
five percent increase in our average sell price, maybe to
outpace inflation for the first time in a few years.
So lots of good things, but the Trump administration. The
(04:37):
reason why I want to make it clear that this
is short term is because eventually those bonds are going
to kind of run out and the money is going
to have been spent, and then rates will float back
up again. So this is a short term window. So
if you have been thinking about buying and you don't
want to wait until the end of the year, now
would be the right time. How long the rates stay
(04:59):
where they are now now with the with the NBS spy,
it is hard to say, but it is a short
term window because when that runs out, they'll bump back
up again until there's more FED relief or you know,
qualitative easing, printing money. There are certainly things the government
could do to lower rates more outside of just a
FED but right now, that is a short term window.
So you know, I want to encourage you that if
(05:22):
you looked six months or a year ago, or you're
thinking about, you know, doing something in a relatively near future,
you should jump off the fence and do it now,
or it's going to cost you more money simply from
rates rising until what I suspect would be some relief
again late in the year with a new FED chair.
And there's no guarantee of that certainly, you know, I
(05:43):
believe that Trump administration wants that to happen, but there's
certainly no guarantee that that happens. So so those are
all things that are that are happening in a real
estate market. That are you know, that are that are
moving it both politically and then locally. So again you're
listening to the Duncan Do a real estate show Andrew
Duncan at the Duncan Duo. Twitter, Instagram, YouTube, TikTok. I
(06:05):
saw an article this week that the National Association Realtors
is calling for federal incentives to spur investor sales, and
and of course one of the obstacles you've got GNAR
pushing this, and then you've got the President kind of
against it. I'm definitely a free market person. I don't
love a lot of the overreach into the market, except
(06:28):
for when you know, maybe it's like the FED for example,
I don't I don't love the how they've determined to
control interest rates in a free market compared to everyone
else in the world. At the same time, I feel
like there's just a lot of overreach into let's let's
do this, let's do that, and I think most of
those things don't end very well. You need to let
the market shake itself out and and too much influence
(06:52):
one way or the other can have dire consequences in
the long term. So I want to I want to
preface this by saying that I'm very pro real estate,
and I'm optimistic, and I love the movement from GNAR
and from you know, from the administration to help kind of,
you know, recover our real estate market. In a bit,
I think some of that is in response to a
lot of people's belief that the FED has not been
(07:14):
aggressive enough in cutting rates, and some of these artificial
steps to try and stoke the real estate market might
have already been taken care of had that not happen.
But nonetheless, I'm very much a free market guy, so
when I see these things happening, it does cause me concerns.
We've gone down these paths before. So the good news, though,
(07:34):
a positive real estate market in twenty six is already underway.
In Tampa, already seeing record visits on my website. We
had a December is our best month of the year.
January is going to be on pace with December, which
is super rare. January February usually really slow, So a
good start of the year. Speaking of good starts of
(07:54):
the year, if you want to start your year with
a waterfront property in Bay Crest, Man got one of
the one of the best waterfront opportunities on the market
right now. Four six four three Bay Crest Drive. This
is in Baycrest Park. I lived in this area for
a long time and I really do like this area.
This is a three bedroom, three bath private pool waterfront
(08:18):
listed for eight twenty five, just short of nineteen hundred
square feet. You know, beautiful property, waterfront oasis, great vacation opportunity,
custom built wine cellar, luxury functionality and fun. Waterfront views
inspire in the you know, four panel glass just to
(08:39):
features go on and on and on. Check out the
pictures on our website. Another thing that I really love
about the home, You've got a floor plan. It's kind
of good for entertaining, but also good for you know,
formal rooms. Two hundred plus square foot dot complete with
the six thousand pound boat lift and a four hundred
and sixty two square foot bonus space perfect for a
(09:02):
game room, gym, or additional additional suite. So this area
in general, I lived there for several years, and you know,
the thing I liked about it was that it was waterfront.
It didn't seem to have as many obstacles with storms
just based on how the canals are set up. I
also liked the commute wasn't too bad. I could get
(09:23):
in and out of downtown Tampa while not being in
downtown Tampa. I didn't feel as congested as South Tampa
and that area in general when I lived there. One
of the drawbacks was that didn't have as many restaurants,
that didn't have as much commercial development, and that has
massively changed. So definitely a great house, a wonderful water
for an opportunity. And again that address is four six
(09:46):
four to three Baycrest Drive listed at eight twenty five.
You can get more information. You can google address, you
can see our YouTube video, you can go to our
website at the dunkin Duo dot com and look at
our featured properties. But a great opportunity on the market
right now, And speaking of waterfront and luxury homes on
the market. That is one of the places in our
market that I am very bullish about. You know, I
(10:07):
mentioned it in the beginning of the show, and I
think as we start this year, you know, so far
this year, we had a seven million dollar closing, We've
got multiple multi million dollar offers out there. We've got
you know, homes above a million coming on the market.
And so the reason why I think there's so much
(10:28):
momentum in our high end market this year is some
of it is pent up. That market got smoked from
the hurricanes. No like, it zapped a lot of demand
for last year because so many of those homes were
damaged and it took a while to rebuild them. Some
of the infrastructure was damaged, some of the areas around
some of the waterfront, and then there was a fear
(10:49):
factor of people deciding and thinking about moving somewhere else.
People have a short attention span. That hurricane stuck around
for a little bit, But now it's kind of off
the radar. That hurricane season we had that was bad.
So now you've had a year and a half since
you've got a new segment of buyers that are looking
that hurricane story is a year and a half in
the past. People aren't paying attention to it. So I
(11:11):
think that has a really positive impact on our high
end market because that was a lot of the real
estate that was affected by Helene and Milton in twenty
twenty four. So another reason our luxury real estate market
is going to continue doing well. You have these polarizing
political plays in states like California New York. I mentioned
the billionaire tax and the thirteen point three percent state
(11:33):
income tax in California. That is moving wealthy people away
from California. And there's plenty of those people because the
way California is set up, it's very spread out in
southern California and even in northern California. And there's a
lot of people that go to Miami and they don't
like how congested it is, or they don't like how
(11:53):
you know, they just don't like the setup. So I
think Tampa's going to benefit a lot from those wealthy
people from California. And then, of course in New York
and in the Northeast, you've got you know, you've got
a mayor in New York that is very polarizing and
very socialist in nature, and it is causing plenty of
New Yorkers to say, oh, I don't know if I
want to keep living here and get taxed to death.
(12:15):
I don't know if I love these new policies. And
even before they give him a chance to see if
these things work, there's plenty of them that just naturally
want to leave. So I think you're going to see
an exodus of that. And then I think you're gonna
but those states are also going to gain in population.
I think there's gonna be people that want to move
and live in that, but probably I think an algorithm
(12:36):
of wealth probably alternating. You know, if you think about
you know, like like the stock market, how major hedge
funds or large banks will alternate to rotate out of
certain asset classes depending on the time of year, depending
on how that market's doing. I think you're going to
see the same thing. I don't think those areas are
going to stop being desirable for people to live in.
I just think you're going to see a rotation out
(12:56):
of the people and the income that live there. I
think you're going to see people that are wealthy that
don't want to be taxed moving out of those areas
and moving to areas like Florida where we don't have
that state income tax and where we potentially have an
abolishment of a homestead property tax, and that is certainly
on the agenda and something I'm paying attention to. So
we're going to continue this conversation about the Tampa Bay
(13:17):
real estate market after a quick break here on the
Duncan Duo Show. So we're back here on the Duncan
Duo Show talking about the Tampa Bay real estate market.
Andrew Duncan, the Duncan Duo TMLPT Realty. When we aren't
on there, make sure to follo us on all of
our socials at the Duncan Duo. I was talking to
my team this week, and I know I have a
lot of real estate agents that listen to the show
or people that are kind of adjacent to the real
(13:37):
estate industry. And one of the things that I wanted
to mention on the show for anyone that is in
the real estate business or maybe in a comparable market
like mortgage. One of the things that I said to
my team this week was, you know, I suspect twenty
six and twenty seven to be massively better and potentially
twenty seven than late twenty six even a boom for
(13:59):
the residential real estate market in Tampa Bay, and we've
already started to see that pick up early in the year,
And unfortunately, I think there are a lot of real
estate agents out there that are going to fail at
capitalizing on it because they're running off the same twenty
twenty five operating system and then they're expected to get
busier in twenty six. So one of the things that
(14:19):
I've really encouraged our agents to do is, you know,
really have a good solid grasp on their time, manage
their time, better time block, be coachable to someone who's
been through these ups and these downs in the market,
Because if you're going to succeed in a market where
there's more transactions and more money to be made and
more opportunities to serve your clients, you can't create more
(14:42):
time in the day, but you can become more efficient
with your time. And I think the most successful real
estate agents in twenty six, you know that learn and adapt,
are going to do just that, simply not operating the
same way they did in twenty five. So you know,
if you're else agent and you're listening to this, the
(15:02):
best advice I have for you is really sit down
and get a better game plan, manage your time better,
and inject a better operating system into your life and
business to be able to capitalize. Because if you're set
up to do, you know, ten deals, you're going to
do ten deals. If you want to do twenty deals
or thirty deals, you better be set up to be
able to handle twenty or thirty deals because if you
operate from a ten deal mindset and a ten deal
(15:23):
time structure, you're gonna fail and you're gonna you're gonna
not serve a lot of your clients. So that's my
real estate tip for uh, you know, for this week.
So speaking of you know kind, I touched on this
a little bit earlier, but the drop in mortgage rates,
this is also a major opportunity for people to refinance
that have been sitting on the fence. If you've been
(15:45):
thinking about lowering your payment, if you've been thinking about,
you know, getting rid of your PMI, if you've been
paying attention to mortgage rates. We're at the lowest mortgage
rates that we've seen in three years now. There is
a suspicion that will get to lower rates in the
later half of this year. But maybe you can't wait,
and maybe that doesn't happen. There's a lot of variables
at play, but Trump buying mortgage backed securities in the
(16:08):
amount of two hundred billion push rates down about a
quarter point. So if your interest rate is in the
high sixes or into the sevens, you should definitely look
at refinancing. Go to citywide Tampa dot com, especially if
you have a VA or FAHA mortgage. There's so many
people that don't know this. VA and FHA allow you
to a streamline refinance product to simply lower your rate,
(16:28):
not cost you out of pocket money. It allows you
to lower your rate while not going through the typical
hassles and qualification, meaning that if the house you know
isn't if the house won't a praise, or if maybe
you wouldn't qualify today but you would have a few
years ago.
Speaker 1 (16:45):
Uh.
Speaker 2 (16:45):
Those are things that that are are less much less
relevant in a streamline refinance than in a typical refinance
or a typical purchase. So we have a we have
a couple of few great loan officers, you know Megan,
excuse me, Melissa Morgan combined those two there real quick.
Melissa Morgan and Oscar on our team that can help
(17:05):
you do a refinance. You just have to go to citywide,
to Tampa dot com. There's so many people out there
that can benefit from this. And again, could you wait
and maybe it goes lower? Possibly, but it could also
end up higher and the savings that you would have
over the next you know, several months or up to
a year before rates drop to the low. And the
reason why I say right now is the time to
maximize on the refinance is because the Trump mortgage backed
(17:28):
security buy that he did, where he's using Fanny and
Freddie money to buy two hundred billion in mortgage backed securities.
It is a short term thing. Okay, it instantly lowered rates.
Once that is kind of used up, the rates will
float back up again until there's more action from the
Fed or more action and treasuries. And that's not likely
to happen under the current FED chair. And based on
(17:50):
the economic data that's coming out, I suspect we won't.
We may not see another rate cut until March or
April at the earliest, and may not any at all
based on the political tension between Trump and Powell. So
the mortgage backed security buy was is a short term
window that will not last forever, so we could see
do I think we eventually get to a place where
(18:10):
rates are lower than they are right now? Yes, I
think we do. How long that takes is the question.
And if you're in a tough spot financially, if you've
missed some payments, if you've if you've you know, had
some job loss, if your property isn't worth what it
used to be, that you can still do a streamline
refinance and lower your payment. So again, the easiest way
to do that, you can go right to the application page,
(18:32):
and if you've got questions, you can definitely contact Melissa
Melissa Oscar Morgan directly from that link. And it's very
easy to remember city wide Tampa, so it's city wide Tampa,
citywide Tampa dot com. Just go to that link, go
right to the application, start your process, and mention when
you speak to them that you heard it on our
(18:53):
radio show here on w FLA News. So again, great
opportunity for refinance. Right now, there are plus any of
sellers that we're meeting with that are kind of weighing
that right they're weighing the financial benefits of do I
refinance or do I sell. That is one downside of
refinancing is you can't sell while you're refinancing. So if
your house is on the market and you're going to
do a refinance, it may have to come off the
(19:14):
market in order to qualify to do that. So we're
going to continue this conversation with our next segment on
the other side after a break here on the Duncan
Duo Show.
Speaker 1 (19:23):
St back here on the Duncan Duo Show.
Speaker 2 (19:24):
More optimistic real estate news out there this week. But
I want to make it something really clear, Okay, when
you have the.
Speaker 1 (19:32):
Real estate is the slowest moving.
Speaker 2 (19:35):
Market in the world. Again, this is Andrew Duncan to
Duncan do a TEMLPT realty. I have friends that, do
you know, private equity. I have friends that have millions
of dollars in stock market. I have people that do
a ton of crypto. Those are really volatle markets, meaning
that you can see like five and ten percent swings
in a day, much less sometimes even an hour, much
less months of the time. The reason why the real
(19:57):
estate market is such a stable place for am investment
and a stable place for to see things and how
they work is because it is so slow moving the
things that happen in real estate take a long time
to trickle down to actually having an impact on prices.
So when you hear this optimistic news, okay, it doesn't
(20:18):
mean the prices are all of a sudden rising. Okay,
it doesn't mean that it's now all of a sudden
massively more expensive, or that you can ask more for
your home. That that just isn't reality. We've been in
a depreciating especially when you compare to inflation, a depreciating
market for you know, a year plus, meaning that homes
aren't selling for slightly less than what they sold for
(20:38):
three or six months ago. We're starting to see that
corner turn where things stabilize and maybe we see some
decent appreciation this year, but it's not here yet. So
when you hear this, just know that it's kind of like,
you know, if you're paying attention to a stock and
news hit, the stock would surge instantly. Okay, when real
estate news hits, it doesn't surge prices instantly. However, it
(21:02):
is a really good sign towards future benefits if those
things keep up. So it's just slower moving. Those positive
things that happen definitely lead towards if they continue to
pile up increases in our prices. But it doesn't it
doesn't lead to instantaneous, instant gratification like in crypto or
(21:23):
the stock market. So, US December, existing home sales increased
five point one percent and pending home sales hit the
highest number nationally in three years. And we're seeing some
of the same thing in Tampa. So what does that
mean to you as a buyer or a seller of
real estate in Tampa Bay. It means that if those
things keep up, we're probably heading towards a better real
estate market in twenty six. Again, assuming no hurricanes, assuming
(21:47):
no national disasters, we're heading towards a better twenty twenty
six real estate market than we saw in twenty five.
We're heading towards more transactions and higher prices. But those
things need to keep up. Your price doesn't automatically get
higher because we had a good month. Those things need
to build on each other. But as a smart buyer
or a smart investor, these are the things that should
tip you off to start thinking about pivoting and looking
(22:09):
into investing in real estate. I taught a class this
week about buying rental properties at one point, I owned,
you know, to a lot of rental property, and I've
divested of some of it and certainly moved that money
into other investments and other properties. But it is a
great time to think about that is before the price
(22:29):
to start surging.
Speaker 1 (22:31):
So so real.
Speaker 2 (22:33):
Estate investing is something we teach our agents, but it's
something we're you know, we're proud of. And the last
couple of years, it's been hard to look at real
estate and say, yeah, let me let me invest here,
unless you unless you were able to get some killer deal.
You saw money moving to other things. That is starting
to change. You saw real estate stocks and mortgage stocks
(22:53):
increasing pretty considerably over the last couple couple of weeks,
with with the action from the Trump administration and his
discussion of wanting to improve the real estate market. Whether
or not you agree with his actions, the actions do
have an intended consequence of a very quick improvement in
real estate. So all of these things lead towards if
(23:15):
you're fearful of a market crash, you know every month
that we pile up existing home sales and pitting home
sales increasing, the market is telling us, even though it
moves slower than some of these other markets. It's heading
in a direction where things are going to be pretty healthy.
So home buyers expect that if this news continues and
(23:35):
you wait, it's going to cost you more. Okay, home sellers,
if you're upgrading, you should be looking to do that now.
You should be getting your house on the market to
go out and buy, because far too often I see
home sellers stay, oh, I want to wait until my
price gets to I got a four hundred and fifty
thousand dollars house. I want to wait till my house
gets to five hundred so I can go buy my
million dollar house. Had this conversation this week. Well, you know,
(23:58):
so your four to fifty gets to five hundred. You
know that's roughly a twelve percent you know, a little
short of a twelve percent increase. What do you think
your million's gonna do? Think it's gonna stay the same.
I think it's in a vacuum. It's gonna go up
twelve percent too. You just lost money by waiting to
get the number you want out of your house. Far
too many sellers get this emotional attachment to a number,
and it's bad math, especially in a move up scenario.
(24:21):
So sellers, especially if they're buying, they should be selling
right now and taking advantage of this window where rates
are lower. Buyers should obviously be doing it too, because
the data is starting to point to the direction of
an improved real estate market. And if we boom in
twenty seven, then you're gonna win with great appreciation. There's
so many people that are gonna just wait and wait
and wait, and they're gonna miss it, or they're gonna
(24:42):
wait until it's too late and they're gonna overpay. And
one of the things that I've seen in real estate
markets through the years is when rates get lower, and
we suspect late twenty six and twenty seven, we're gonna
see more interestrate relief. Okay. When they get lower, prices
rise dramatic. Okay. People buy real estate based on the payment.
(25:04):
The majority of the time, it's the payment, not the price.
So if that happens and you wait, you missed it, Okay,
you missed the gain. You bought the asset too late,
you bought it aft it already went up. You want
to buy it before it does that, okay. So this
data is starting to trickle out, it's kind of pointing
you in the direction that things are going to get
improved in real estate and home sellers. The other reason
(25:26):
why you should look at doing it now, especially if
you're moving up, is because you have to pay more
attention to the value proposition on your buy and the
dollar exchange on your buy than you are to your sell. Okay,
if you're moving up, if you're buying a higher priced
home and you expect prices are going to rise, you're
losing by waiting, and people don't understand that. I literally
(25:47):
I had two conversations this week with sellers who were
waiting until they can get a certain number to go
out and buy their more expensive house. And not because
they have to need the monthy, not because they have
to because they can qualify with the price that the
market will bear for their home, they can qualify to
buy the new home. They're just you know, there, it's
not a quality, it's an ego. It's a mental thing.
(26:08):
It's a I want to get to five hundred because
I want to get to five hundred, And then they're
losing money out of their egos. So the reality is
that home sellers are upgrading need to act sooner. The
only people where it really makes sense, you know, to
sit and wait. Are home sellers that are downgrading if
(26:30):
the if the suspicion is that prices are going to rise, well, yeah,
the home seller that's moving from a five hundred to
a two fifty will make more money selling their five
hundred than the than the loss and buying their two fifty.
So again, and the last segment of that, and the
last part of that that matters is what is going
on in the real estate market where you're buying. If
(26:50):
you're doing it in the same metro area and the
same market, everything I talked about applies. The only time
where it may not apply or may apply more aggressively,
is if you're buying into a real estate market that
is more aggressively growing or declining than the one you're
selling in. So those things certainly matter, but far too
often people don't have the vision to look ahead. It's funny.
(27:15):
One of my passions is cars, and I enjoy as
a hobby racing cars, and so I go to the
Motor Enclave on Sundays sometimes and there's a driver's club
thing that I'm a part of, and there's an instructor
there that's a professional race car driver that takes you
out and tells you you know what to do and
gives you this idea. And I thought of this great
(27:38):
analogy when he was telling me this while I was
driving one of my cars, and he said, you have
to look not just at the next turn, but you
have to be looking two or three turns ahead to
where you need to position your car. And it was
such a great analogy because it tells you how important
vision is, especially when you're moving fast in the vehicle.
You can't just be looking at that turnament, oh, now
(27:58):
it's time for me to handle this turn. You have
to know before you get to that turn where you're
going to be. And it's the same so as you
go out and you watch people that haven't gone on
a racetrack before and they haven't had instruction before, they
screw up all the time because they don't start turning
the turn and getting in the right spot until the
turn right. And so it's interesting when you see sometimes
(28:19):
these people that don't listen and they're they're they're sliding
all over the track, or you know, they're almost crashing,
or sometimes sometimes they are crashing, like there's been a
few crashes there. So it's the same thing for for
for real estate people, for people that are selling their house. Okay,
you cannot make the decision based on the turn that
(28:40):
you're in, the house that you're in. You have to
make the right real estate decision based on the actions
after that too, And so many people don't take that
into consideration. They say, I'm gonna sell, but I can't
sell until I get five hundred. Well, why can't you
sell because I really want five hundred. Okay, so you're
gonna wait for price to rise twelve percent, And the
same thing is gonna happen with what you're buying. If
you're buying some the more expensive, you're losing money. You're
(29:02):
you're being a stubborn idiot. And so you're basically being
the guy at the racetrack that says, I'm not going
to turn the wheel for this turn until I get
to the turn, instead of positioning yourself accordingly to be
able to handle the other turns that are coming. So
hopefully that makes sense, but it's definitely a common concern
that I have when I talk to people that are
(29:23):
that are in this space right now. So again, just
to summarize real estate, slowest moving market in the world,
you know, you you look at silver and gold and
they skyrocketed recently. Right, Bitcoin will have periods of time
where it goes up five or ten percent in days.
Certain stocks will twenty thirty forty percent surges in a day. Okay.
(29:45):
Real estate doesn't do that. All of the policy that
you hear about, you know, the data, the mortgage backed
security buy, the existing home sales increasing, the you know
in Tampa, the you know a year away from a hurricane,
or you know, property taxes might get abolished. Like none
of those things instantly moon real estate. Okay, it is
(30:08):
so slow moving. It will take time for all of
that to trickle down and have an impact positively on
real estate sales. And it will take a long period
of time in an antiquated industry. And let's face it,
real estate is antiquated. Okay. I mean we're still we're
still signing documents at title companies, and I mean there's
(30:28):
still people mailing checks, like title companies mail checks. And
I just laughed to myself thinking some of these other
businesses I'm a part of and involved with, I couldn't
imagine like, you know, calling up, you know, some bank
and mailing me a check. It's just it's just crazy.
So real estate, it's antiquated, it's slow. These things that
(30:48):
happen are not going to move the needle like you think.
If you're behind and you're down on your house and
you hear all this news, it doesn't mean it's all
of a sudden up. Okay, it will take a lot,
It will take months of that consistency in order to
move the needle. With real estate values, there's just so
many hands in the cookie jar. You've got insurance, you've
got taxes, you've got these other costs. You've got neighbors,
(31:08):
you've got their financial positions, you've got comps. It's just
so hard to value it. It's not like owning a
stock or a coin that is a commodity. There's a
uniqueness to it. So hopefully that helps you understand real
estate and it's in a full perspective and what this
positive stuff that's happening means for the long term. But
more than anything, the biggest point I want to get
(31:29):
across is if you're a home seller selling your home
to upgrade, stop stop putting the primary emphasis on what
you get out of your house unless you have to
get that amount. If you have to get that amount
because you can't qualify or you don't have enough money
to buy the next house, that's different. But if you're
doing it out of ego or trying to hit a target,
or wanting to beat your neighbor, or wanting to get
to a certain number to make you feel more comfortable,
(31:50):
not qualified just for you to feel better, you're losing money.
You're losing money because the house that you're going to
buy is going up if it goes up with the
same clip you lost. So hopefully that helps you make
the right decisions. And when you're ready to make the
right decision, hit up Duncan Duo dot com for your
free home value estimate. You can set an appointment with
one of our top agents. Whether you're looking to sell
an inexpensive property or a super luxury, high end property.
(32:12):
We'll align you with the right agent on our team,
the specialist and the market that you're looking to sell within.
And you could do that again at Duncan Duo dot com. Again,
that is Duncan Duo dot Com. We'll be back to
wrap up the last segment after a quick break here
on WFLA News, So back here on the Duncan duo
show talking about the Tampa Bay real estate market Andrew Duncan,
the Duncan duo team LPT Realty. So just you know,
(32:37):
had something interesting pop up this week. And I'm a
big proponent of using AI. I'm a Grock person, I'm
an Elon guy. In fact, I've got a SpaceX T
shirt on today because I'm an investor in SpaceX. And
so the interesting thing about AI, it is so moving
(32:58):
so fast that it is is starting to outpace humans
in terms of how how quickly it can do things
in its own analysis. But where it hasn't you know,
at least in my opinion, nailed it yet, is home values,
and it's it's going to have a hard time doing that.
Speaker 1 (33:17):
So I ran through and.
Speaker 2 (33:19):
And specifically especially with luxury stuff, but I ran through
some properties this week with Grock, asking it to value
the property knowing what I know about the neighborhood or
the property, and it was pretty far off. Because it's
using all the online aggregators to pull its data. Right,
So it's going to Zillow or homes dot com or
(33:41):
realtor dot com or or wherever, and it's pulling data
and that's how it's kind of calculating it and it's
looking at tax rolls. Well, the problem is that those
sites are markedly off if if an automatic valuation.
Speaker 1 (33:56):
And I'm not saying it won't get there, because.
Speaker 2 (33:57):
I think there's certainly a chance that it will, and
I think there is a chance that it's not a chance.
It has gotten better in neighborhoods where there's you know,
where the houses are very comparable, where there's you know,
it's very you know, kind of consistent in a neighborhood.
If you've got a neighborhood in Riverview where all the
houses are between four and six hundred thousand, and they're
(34:19):
all kind of comparable, they're all built around the same time,
it can be relatively accurate there. It can be accurate
in condo buildings, but where it struggles is with unique
or higher end homes. So you know, I've had customers
be like, oh, well, I put it in chat GPT
or I put it in GROCK and it said I
was worth this. And if the automation was effective enough,
(34:41):
then Zillo wouldn't have lost billions billions with a B
buying and selling real estate. Zillo got out of the
buying and selling real estate business. They had all the data,
they were the leading firm in the space. They opened
up this huge portal where consumers can sell their homes
to directly to Zilo, and then Zillow would turn around
(35:01):
flip them and sell them. Zillo abandoned it because they
were losing money hand over fists because what they learned
is computers can't get inside the house. There's still enough
variables at play that computers can't quite calculate, and consumers
can't do an inspection. They can't determine what might be
wrong with the house, what's not up to code. Those
things don't exist with valuing a lot of other things. Now.
(35:25):
Value in commercial property or income property, that's a math,
that's a math equation. But when you get into residential
real estate, especially if you're looking at luxury stuff, it's
not very accurate yet. I plugged in a particular luxury
property and it valued it based on all the inputs
I put in. It was like thirty five percent over market.
I was like, man, I Grock, please buy the house
(35:46):
for that. So it's getting there. It is an incredible tool,
but it is not up to part yet. With valuing
real estate. It can do a lot of great things,
and maybe it will get there. Maybe with photos and
sure things that you can load into it. It'll eventually improve,
and I think it'll probably be there at some point
in the future. But it isn't there yet. So if
(36:07):
you've grocked your home or plugged it into CLAW or
chat GBT and you want to know what it's worth,
and you're asking AI what your house is worth, it
isn't there yet. I promise you I've done it, I've
tested it's it's it's off again in the circumstances that
it is accurate. It's it's typically going to be in
a in a condo building where they're all the same,
(36:30):
or where there is a lot of product exactly or
specifically comparable, same floor plants, same year built, you know,
same architectural design, same builder, all those things. When when
that's present, it can it can get pretty close. But
we do live, especially if you go across Tampa Bay
into some of our most high priced communities, that's not
(36:51):
what you see. You don't see the cookie cutter. You
see a lot of different architectural designs. You see big houses,
small houses in those areas and neighborhoods which is a
lot out of Tampa Bay. It's not there yet. So
there are a lot of things AI is doing. There
are a lot of things that can help with It's
an incredible tool, but it hasn't quite grasped how to
(37:13):
evaluate real property yet. So again, you're listening to the
Dunkin do a real estate show when we aren't on air,
make sure to follow us all of our socials. We
are at the Duncan Duo. Twitter, Instagram, YouTube, TikTok, Facebook.
I said Twitter, I mean to say X. I gotta
get that right. I gotta say X. If you're a
real estate agent and you didn't have the year you
wanted to have in twenty five, I want you to
(37:35):
have the year that you want to have in twenty six.
We're looking to grow. We launch a new market VIP
program with realtor dot Com that is already having our
agents outright and offers and putting homes under contract within
just a few weeks, and we are looking to hire agents.
So if you didn't have the year that you wanted,
if you don't feel like you're getting coached, if you
also don't feel like you're learning about wealth building, we
(37:57):
do a wealth building. Wednesday's class at the office right
the agents, things I've done to grow my wealth and
make good financial decisions. And then we bring in guest
speakers and and you know, so our goal is having
real estate entrepreneurs that we can coach and grow and
then it can also go out and build and make
good financial decisions as well. So if that's something of interest,
(38:18):
you can go to join the duo dot com. You
can apply for our open positions. There, you can set
a calendarly appointment, you can message directly with our team.
You can also register for upcoming career nights. Again, that
is at jointheduo dot com. Thanks so much for tuning
in and have an awesome rest of your Sunday, Tampa
Bay
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