December 28, 2025 • 37 mins
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Happy Sunday, Tampa Bay with you for another week here
on the Duncan Duo Real Estate Show Christmas Weekend edition.
Hopefully you enjoyed your holiday week, and if you're listening
to us today, you are a committed listener and fan
of the Duncan Duo Show, and we're grateful for that.
So I want to start off the segment with just
(00:21):
a little bit of a recap of, you know, what
we've seen in the Tampa Bay real estate market, and
then talk about some really cool things come to Tampa Bay.
You know, last week's show I gave I gave you know,
some some highlights, and I'll do that in the second
segment today to talk about what I predict for twenty
twenty six is real estate market. Twenty twenty five was
a tough real estate market. We had you know, hurricane hangover,
(00:44):
high interest rates. You know, there is a lot of
optimism for you know for twenty twenty six, but our
prices took a hit this year. The number of transactions
took a hit year over year. We had fewer transactions
in the market and we had prices soften. Most Tampa
Bay homes unfortunately, most lost value in the past year.
(01:06):
Now the homeless that didn't lose value. You know, again,
new construction communities where they've kept building and values have
driven you know, those have done well, as well as
our luxury market and uber luxury market.
Speaker 2 (01:21):
Those have done well.
Speaker 1 (01:22):
But again, if you look at the number of homes
in Tampa Bay, the majority of them have lost value
in the last year. And we're hoping to reverse that
trend in twenty twenty six.
Speaker 2 (01:32):
But I want to.
Speaker 1 (01:32):
Talk about Tampa in general and why our real estate
market is an anomaly. Now you hear and again when
we aren't on airfols, on all of our socials at
the Duncan Duo, Twitter, Instagram, YouTube, TikTok, and Facebook, you
hear a lot of things about real estate from a
national perspective. Look, if you watch Fox News, if you
(01:55):
listen to any podcasts, if you check out CNBC. Most
of the time, unless you're hearing from a local real
estate professional in your market or a local publication, most
of the data that you're getting, even some of the
local publications. I saw something the other day. It's like
the real estate market in twenty six is going to
do this. Then everything in the article talked about the
case Shiller Index and different national reports which are irrelevant.
Speaker 2 (02:17):
Okay.
Speaker 1 (02:18):
A lot of news journalists do not understand how to
report on real estate.
Speaker 2 (02:22):
Okay. A lot of times it's given.
Speaker 1 (02:24):
To a lower or newer newsperson may not even be
a homeowner themselves, and they're just looking. They're either asking
AI or they're looking at national statistics and trends because
they don't understand real estate, or they think it's like
the stock market. If real estate is not typically stated
in a local fashion, the data that you're getting is
completely irrelevant. It's comparable to saying, like the high temperature
(02:47):
in the United States of America is sixty eight degrees today.
Real estate is so local. It's not the stock market.
It's not crypto. It doesn't go up big and go
down big. Okay, it doesn't move on this daily fluctuation.
It is the slowest moving economic market in the world.
Let me repeat that real estate is the slowest moving
(03:09):
economic market in the world. Things that happen take months
and months and months to trickle down and have an
impact on real estate. So when something happens from a
tax perspective, or there's a policy that gets passed or
there's something in your market that occurs takes months to
trickle down an impact.
Speaker 2 (03:27):
Okay.
Speaker 1 (03:28):
So Tampa, you know, has a bit of a positive
spin on twenty six and in prior years, prior to
this last year because of some of the things that
are happening economically.
Speaker 2 (03:42):
Now.
Speaker 1 (03:42):
We had hurricane impact, which which rocked our market in
twenty four and had some negative impact in twenty five
of course as well, but we still have population growth.
We have winning sports teams, you know, the Lightning, the
Buccaneers have been historically winning teams. The Race have been
a historically winning team. We have a client a business,
(04:05):
an economic climate that is very tax friendly, no state
income tax, potential abolishment of property taxes. People have made
political moves to Florida because they don't like what's happening
in other parts of the countries.
Speaker 2 (04:17):
All of these things are really positive.
Speaker 1 (04:19):
But some local things that are happening that I think
will continue to have a positive impact on Tampa Bay.
Speaker 2 (04:27):
Number One, we're getting younger. Okay.
Speaker 1 (04:30):
I remember a decade ago, if I talked to people
up north that were younger, they would say, oh, I
want to move to Orlando or Miami. We were kind
of not even in the conversation we reviewed as Oh,
you know, you go retire, you know, let's go retire
on the beach.
Speaker 2 (04:43):
Right.
Speaker 1 (04:44):
We're getting younger. Okay, more and more young people are
choosing Tampa and that is a really great thing for
our real estate market. The second thing is is development.
We continue to grow. We have land available. If you
look at some of the bigger cities throughoute the country,
their landlocked, they don't have land. They can't grow. Either
(05:05):
they're small or they're already over developed and they can't grow.
We still have a lot of land within close proximity
to our major employment centers, so our area still has
a massive amount of potential to grow. You can still,
you know, buy a home today, or have a home built,
or buy a new construction home being built and be
(05:25):
within a thirty ish minute drive to your job. Okay,
there are major cities throughout this country that can't do that.
Other things that are driving Tampa and look, I want
to give kudos to strategic property partners. What has happened
in downtown is amazing. I remember moving to Tampa Bay
(05:46):
twenty five years ago, and I lived and worked in
downtown Saint Pete and obviously over that period of time,
I remember thinking how sleepy, kind of snoozy it was,
and it was even better than tam at that point.
Both downtown Tampa and downtown Saint Pete have done remarkable
(06:06):
things to make our areas stand out and make our
area attractive, attracted to both tourists as well as people
that vacation here and say this is pretty awesome.
Speaker 2 (06:18):
Now.
Speaker 1 (06:19):
Ten years ago, if you went walked around downtown Tampa,
you didn't think that. But now you've got a winning team.
You've got incredible michel unrated restaurants and hotels. You've got uh,
walkable areas, You've got you know, apartments, condos, you've got
a waterfront and a riverfront that connects you to different
parts of Tampa. It's walkable, it's bikeable. You know, lots
(06:42):
of restaurants, lots of bars. You didn't have this.
Speaker 2 (06:45):
In the past.
Speaker 1 (06:46):
And so so if you cut across the bridge from
Tampa and you go to Saint Pete, it's a lot
of the same thing. You've got this you know, really
cool uh you know vibe in downtown Saint Pete. You've
got developedopment, you've got restaurants, you've got people, you've got
the pier, you've got the St. Pete Grand Prix. Over
(07:06):
the last ten years, both downtown Tampa and downtown Saint
Pete have had a remarkable transformation that is going to continue.
And it's going to continue because there's room for it.
There's there's plenty of areas then buildings that are still
old that can be redeveloped and turned into something cool.
There's some wonderful architects. But both the local governments, both
(07:28):
the local both the local governments have done incredible things
to move that development along, and it just continues to grow.
It continues to be a highlight that keeps people close.
And what's happened with Water Street. What's interesting is, for
the longest time you had this area kind of in
South Tampa that was the kind of the it area,
(07:49):
right where where.
Speaker 2 (07:50):
People wanted to live.
Speaker 1 (07:51):
And now that's expanded, it's expanded even further south. Okay,
so now there used to be a really negative stigma
attached to something south of Sandy Boulevard, where my office
is located. It's still not quite as positively viewed as
something north of Gandy, but it doesn't have nearly the
negative stigma used to same thing north of Kennedy Boulevard.
(08:11):
When you look at West Tampa, the area around Armature
Works and similar heights, that kind of cool, hip core
area has expanded and you see really cool urban design builds, walkable,
bikeable being built on the north side of downtown that
historically had been kind of, you know, look down upon
(08:32):
as maybe a not great area. Well, now that area
has really leveled up. Or again, same thing, nightlife, restaurants, walkable,
all of those things. So Water Street has basically caused
this expansion of kind of what you would consider like
our cool areas. The same thing happened to downtown Saint
Pete as downtown Saint.
Speaker 2 (08:51):
Pete got cool.
Speaker 1 (08:52):
Okay, there were areas that used to be frowned upon,
for example, the south side of Saint Pete. Property values
were pressed, they didn't perform as well. Those have definitely
moved up and become more attractive. You've seen this gentrification
and this youth movement into these areas, and it's massively
improved real estate values because those downtown areas become core targets.
(09:16):
People that were maybe living in you know, clear Water
or Palm Harbor or tarp and springs, They go out
to eat in downtown Saint Pete and they say, hey,
let's move a little closer, or someone visits on vacation,
they go to a hockey game. You know, despite what
some of the Canadian politicians say, we got a lot
of Canadians that have moved here that come and visit
(09:38):
and buy homes. They go to a hockey game, they
love it, and then they end up, you know, they
end up moving, they end up buying a second home here.
So this this movement towards these downtowns, and what it's
caused is this expansion and this attraction that we didn't
have before, because before we were reviewed as old and stodgy,
not cool and him. And in addition to that, you've
(09:59):
just got this move movement from from developers and builders
that are building really cool products. You've got properties being
built in downtown Tampa and Saint Pete as well as
in the Marina Point area that are hip, they're urban,
they're modern, they're they're they're much better than the sleepy
old condos that have been existing in Tampa for a
long time. So are our architecture and our build quality
(10:21):
is starting to attract. UH you know, people from all
over the world. The luxury client, the guy that is
used to a Manhattan penthouse. The millionaires that are wanting
to move to Florida, and it started during COVID. Okay,
the millionaires that are wanting to move here because they
can run their business from anywhere and they don't want
to pay state income tax. Okay, that crowd comes and
then what comes with it is money, job creation, gross
(10:48):
domestic product purchases. Restaurants need to be built. Okay, it's
a very positive thing for economy. Now here's the downside
of all that. So our real estate values have improved,
These downtowns are anchored. You know, we're past hurricane season,
or not past. We're another year of a clean hurricane season,
so that that that hurricane hangover has passed. We're moving
(11:11):
in a positive direction. It looks like interest rates moving
in a good direction. We may have some property tax relief.
The downside is our infrastructure. If you're a long time
Tampa resident, that the mart the real estate market gets improvement,
and the more people that come here, the more the
more are infrastructure struggles.
Speaker 2 (11:31):
So, uh, that's the downside.
Speaker 1 (11:33):
All these are good things for the real estate market,
for home values, for local economies, for job creation, for income.
They're not necessarily great for convenience. So that's the one
downside of all of this is that it's likely not
gonna get that much better. They're gonna be able to
add lanes and try and improve it, but that's simply reactive.
It's not ahead of in front of enough. If Tampa
(11:55):
keeps growing, it's gonna need to have very forward thinking
politicians and infrastructructure that make moves ahead of not not reactive,
but proactive to solve some of the traffic problems. And
of course we're no longer the secret we used to be.
The world has noticed we're going to get more people
move here, and our infrastructure is going to struggle. It's
(12:15):
going to take longer to get to work just going
to it's the commute's going to be longer. The traffic
is going to get worse. All of those things, again
can be seen negatively. A lot of people certainly economically
see them positively. So hopefully that helps you understand some
unique things that are helping drive Tampa's real estate Market'll
be back continue this conversation after a quick break here
on the Duncan Duo Show. So we're back here on
(12:36):
The Duncan Duo Show talking about the Tampa Bay real
estate market. And you know, I had this question and
I talked about it a week or two ago on
the show, and it was what was my prediction for
the real estate market in twenty twenty six? So I
want to use this segment to touch on that. And
you know, first and foremost, I believe that I'm already
(12:57):
seeing signs in the last couple of months of the
year in my big business that tell me that the
real estate market in Tampa Bay is going to be
better in twenty six than it was in twenty five.
And I'm going to go through a few you know,
points over the next few minutes about why that is
going to be. And again, this is Andrew Duncan with
the Doug and Duo team at LPT Realty, twenty year
(13:18):
real estate agent broker within the Tampa Bay market, a
few billion dollars in sales. So I got a little
bit of a track record and seeing the ups and
downs of real estate markets through my career, and what
I can tell you is that the last couple of
years have been rough and they've been rough for a
lot of reasons. One obviously economic pressures, two interest rates,
(13:39):
and three and probably the most pressing for Tampa Bay
were hurricane the hurricane impact from last year. So the
first reason why I believe our market will be better
in twenty six is the elephant in the room and
the biggest thing that's impacted and harmed our market, which is,
you know, the hurricane impact. So you know, I talked
to friends in other markets that had massive hrcane impacts,
(14:00):
and we got hit with two big ones back to back,
And even if your property wasn't damaged, the damage to
Tampa Bay as a region from a marketing perspective, from
a fear perspective, as well as the impact on areas
and the kind of the hangover from storm impact impacted
the entire market. It slowed down our market, It canceled sales,
(14:24):
It turned people to other parts of the country or
other parts of Florida. It had massive, a massive financial
as well as psychological impact. The longer we get away
from that without hurricane impact, the better our market kits.
So first and foremost, we had a clean hurricane season,
hopeful for another one and again another year with a
(14:46):
clean hurricane season and our market improves even more. The
second reason why I believe the real estate market will
improve in twenty six is because we have seen interst
rate relief. Now it hasn't translated did the FED drops
having completely translated to a you know, an interest rate drop.
(15:07):
And what I mean by that is the number of
BIPs that the FED has dropped hasn't completely turned into
the same number of BIPs on mortgages because the way
the Treasury yields work. But it has caused interest rates
for mortgages to drop. They are lower than they were
a year and two ago, so they're trending in that direction.
Most people expect that to continue. I expect that to continue.
(15:29):
I don't know if it'll continue as aggressively as the
President is pitching it, but I think that leads towards
the real estate market improving, and it does twofold because one,
it brings more buyers into the marketplace and gives them
more more budget. The second thing is that doesn't pull
some sellers off the fence. The lower the rate gets,
the more that sellers that are sitting in homes with
three percent and four percent mortgages, the more motivated they
(15:52):
get to say, you know what, now I want to
sell my home and buy another, and those are two transactions.
So I believe that increases transactions. Another reason why I
belie leave the real estate market in twenty six will
be better. Now that President Trump has been in office
for a year, he has another year maybe of maybe more,
but another year of controlling the House in the Senate,
(16:13):
I believe that we will see some pro real estate actions, legislation,
and politics that help improve our real estate market. Whether
that's the proposed fifty year mortgage, whether that's tax benefits,
whether those are executive actions to public make public Fanny
and Freddy or more publicize them. All of those things
(16:35):
lead towards me being more bullish about real estate in
twenty six. The last thing, which I think is the
wild card, and that is property taxes. One thing I've
learned about markets, whether it's real estate or stock or crypto,
whatever it is, the markets move ahead of the news.
They move ahead of the speculation. So when interest rates
(16:57):
are expected to drop, the market prices it in and
predicts it. When the Fed is expected to put in liquidity,
the markets move in the direction of the expectation, not
the actual news. So as we get closer to the
end of twenty six, there's going to be a lot
of talk about the abolishment of property taxes or massive
property tax relief in Florida that could lead toward towards
(17:20):
some home owners not having property taxes at all. There's
a big push throughout the country. It has momentum. Our
state is aligned from a political environment to have a
chance at having that pass a sixty percent constitutional amendment.
The closer we get to that date, the more bullish
real estate becomes. Because it will knock some people off
the fence. It will also move some people here as
(17:42):
it gets closer to that day to becoming more likely
if the constitutional amendment happens in twenty six and this
impacts in twenty seven, but the market moves ahead of that. Okay,
So if it starts to look more and more likely,
our real estate market will see some improvement. People will
act in anticipation of that because they'll want to act
before the pump up that the market would expect from
(18:03):
homeowners not having to pay property tax anymore.
Speaker 2 (18:05):
AKA, prices would go up and people would move here.
Speaker 1 (18:08):
We would have more demand, we would have more appreciation
and a lot of the rumblings and complaints about the
scarlet letter in our real estate market, insurance would go
away because taxes are a lot more than insurance. So
for all of those reasons, I'm very bullish and optimistic
about twenty twenty six and twenty twenty seven. And if
(18:29):
you want to stay up to date and see as
the statistics come out, you want to know what's going
on in the market, you can follow us at the
Dunkin Duo and all of our socials. You can also
know what's going on in your neighborhood with your house
dunkinduo dot com. Type in your address giuse you a
free market report. You get to know. You know what's
going on in your neighborhood, what your neighbors soldier house for,
(18:50):
who in your neighborhood's in foreclosure, You know all of that.
You can also get an instant cash offer at dunkinduo
dot com. Or We're going to be back continuing this
conversation after a quick break here on the Duncan Duo Show.
So back here on the Duncan Duo Show talking about
the Tampa Bay real estate market. Andrew Duncan, the Duncan
duo team LPT Realty at the Duncan Duo.
Speaker 2 (19:11):
When we aren't on.
Speaker 1 (19:12):
Air, I want to talk next about Airbnb, and we
get this question a lot. We get a lot of
customers that want to buy a home and airbnb it.
And I want to talk about this because there's a
lot of misinformation out there about doing an Airbnb for
(19:34):
real estate. And so the reason why I say misinformation
is because Airbnb kind of really blew up during COVID,
the COVID market when when mortgage rates were cheaper, When
write post COVID, more people are traveling, hotels were closed,
so it was a way for people to make extra money.
(19:55):
It was a way for people to find you know,
vacancye an occupancy. But it isn't nearly as hot of
a market as it used to be because Airbnb, for
the most part, the fees, costs, management structure in our market. Okay,
so I'm not talking about buying an Airbnb and Ashville
or somewhere in North Carolina or Tennessee. I'm talking about
(20:17):
Tampa Bay doing an Airbnb here. The cost of insurance,
the flood insurance, all of those things make it make
it economically not make a ton of sense if that's
your sole purpose. Now, if you're going to buy a
vacation home that you're going to use and you want
to airbnb at first some extra income here and there, okay,
maybe that can work. But if you're buying an airbnb
in Tampa Bay purely for return on investment, I would
(20:39):
tell you you're marking up the wrong tree, probably in
the wrong market, probably not quite grasping what our insurance
and taxes are, and you're probably gonna run into mistakes, challenges,
and frankly regulations. So the reason why the airbnbs were
so successful is because of cheap money. Well, money isn't
(21:01):
as cheap anymore. The other reason is because we were
seeing this massive appreciation, so somebody could run out of house,
make some money on Airbnb, and he or too later
exit that house and make a ton of money. We're
not seeing appreciation like that anymore. So the obstacle with
airbnb is that economically it doesn't make a ton of
sense in our market anymore. The cap rate, the numbers
(21:22):
just don't make sense. So if you're thinking about airbnbing,
here again my recommendation is look at other markets. The
second thing I would tell you if you're dead set
on doing an airbnb in Tampa Bay. There are so
many people that make the mistake of assuming that you know,
you have this you know right to do an airbnb. Well,
(21:44):
there are a lot of problems with doing an airbnb
in Tampa Bay. First, you've got to you know, we're
talking about a lot of local governments. You've got cities,
you've got counties, and then you've got all these little
cities along the beach and little cities and municipalities throughout
Tampa Bay. Okay, river View, Brain of Va Rico, Indian
Rocks Beach, Saint Pete Beach, Clearwater, Palm Harbor, tarp and Springs.
Speaker 2 (22:05):
Okay.
Speaker 1 (22:06):
The governmental choices and regulatory bodies and decisions about whether
or not short term rentals are allowed varies from one
to the other.
Speaker 2 (22:15):
Okay, there's not some.
Speaker 1 (22:16):
Rule that over arches the entire area that says you
can or you can't. Most of the local governments are
issuing or putting regulations in place that are pretty anti
short term rental, meaning putting limitations on how often you
can or can't do it. And if you do and
you don't have the proper regulation or permit or filing,
and they catch it, they find you. Okay, they find you,
(22:39):
they put leans on your house, they cause problems. So
local governments are causing a problem for people that want
to do an airbnb because they're against it. Okay, most
of them are against it. Most of them have regulations
that prevent you or limit how often you can do it.
The next part of the airbnb obstacle is the homeowners association. Okay,
(22:59):
so if a city has a regulation, then there could
be a HOA or condo board regulation on top of
whatever the city or county or a municipality says.
Speaker 2 (23:10):
So it's it's.
Speaker 1 (23:11):
From a regulatory environment. It is putting an extra strain
on your ability to rent out that house. Far too
many people buy them and think, oh, I'll just do it,
I'll get away with it, and you won't okay, and
you'll have problems. You're gonna get fined, you're gonna have
you're gonna have issues.
Speaker 2 (23:26):
Okay. So there are a lot.
Speaker 1 (23:28):
Of people that don't understand the nuances of what you know,
where you can do an airbnb, and and what the
benefits are. The second thing, like I mentioned, our market
isn't appreciating if you don't do your research. Okay, you
go and you buy a house and you're gonna airbnb it. Okay,
you didn't do your research ahead of time. Six months
later you're gonna go sell that house because you realize,
(23:49):
oh whoops, this.
Speaker 2 (23:50):
Is a lot harder than I thought.
Speaker 1 (23:51):
This isn't easy to do this. I can't really easily
airbnb this house. Guess what happens. Now you go to
sell it and you're in the red card feast is
buy it. You've incurd feest to sell it. You can't
recruit because homes aren't appreciating. You're selling it for less
than what you bought a four plus all the fees.
You take a huge hit. You have to do your
due diligence. Do not trust a real estate agent that
(24:15):
tells you you can airbn be a property. Let me
repeat that, do not trust a real estate agent that
tells you you can airbnb a property. Okay, do your
due diligence. Talk to the local municipalities, whatever the city,
whatever the county.
Speaker 2 (24:31):
Look at the HOA rules.
Speaker 1 (24:33):
Read the big binder of PDF documents that are sent
to you by your real estate agent that are the
HOA bylaws or the condominiing doactments actually read them? Ninety
nine percent of consumers don't. They don't read them, and
then they call six months later upset because they find
something in them because they didn't read them, and then
they blame the real estate agent who was expected to
read two hundred and seventy two pages and have it
(24:54):
all memorized. Okay, read the documents. Okay, read the documents.
So Airbnb proceed with caution. It can be a great
thing that a lot of markets, our market probably.
Speaker 2 (25:07):
Isn't the right one for that.
Speaker 1 (25:09):
So trending UH a trending topic that we're starting to
get questions about now. We have a partnership with Citywide
Home Mortgage Citywide Tampa dot com, Melissa and Oscar.
Speaker 2 (25:21):
Are you know loyal loan.
Speaker 1 (25:24):
Officers that are that are in the trenches every day
helping our helping our customers buy UH and and mortgage
and refinance real estate. We're starting to get questions now
about people thinking about refinancing. So I want to give
some tips today about what to look at when you're
thinking about doing a refinance on your existing home. First
and foremost, if you have a VA or an f
(25:46):
H A mortgage. Okay, you really want to look at
your rate and understand and know what refinance products are
out there. There are people that don't do FAHA or
VA loans, but we'll try and re finance you into
a conventional mortgage and cost you a bunch of money,
cost you closing costs, cost you extra feeds. VA and
(26:08):
FHA mortgagees have a streamline process okay, where you can
simply just lower your rate. The qualification steps are much lighter,
you don't have to jump through as many hoops. Okay,
it's an amazing product. If you have a VA FAHA
mortgage and you simply just want to lower your interest rate,
lower your payment, potentially even skip a payment, just go
(26:30):
to citywide Tampa dot com. Get that Citywide Tampa dot com.
If you've owned your home for the if you've bought
in the last few years, your rate maybe lower. And
if it's not yet, our loan officers will tell you, hey,
wait wait another six months, wait another three months, rates
will come down a little bit more. You may not
have an immediate need, but you might in the future. Okay,
(26:51):
So Citywide Tampa dot Com via FHA streamline refinance. If
you have one of those loans. It's a very quick
it's not very quick, but it's much quicker than a
typical refinance, is okay. Now, another thing to think about
when you're, you know, considering refinances on a conventional mortgage.
Speaker 2 (27:11):
So let's say that you are.
Speaker 1 (27:14):
Not necessarily a VIA or FHA person, you don't have
a VA or FH a loan, you have a traditional
conventional mortgage, and you're thinking about getting doing a refinance. Now,
it will depend on when you bought, but if you
don't have an FHA or VA, your home is going
to have to appraise at the number, at a particular number.
It's going to not have you know, if you're going
to refinance, the home has to appraise at what you're
(27:38):
going to refinance for. If it doesn't, then you may
not be able to. Secondly, you're going to need to
be able to prove you still have the ability you're
going to have to qualify for that refinance. Your income
still needs to be good, your credit still needs to
be good. It's it's similar to going through the qualification
to buy a house on a conventional loan. You're going
to need to be able to go through that process.
Show your income. Document your income, look at your look
(28:00):
at your assets. The bank is going to need to
make an informed decision to be able to help refinance you.
So if you don't have all those things lined up,
you need to do some homework on your credit score.
You need to be prepared. You need to make sure
your incomes are reported a certain way. If you haven't,
you know, if you haven't, you know locked in your taxes.
You've got a little bit of time left. Talk to
(28:22):
your CPA, say hey, I'm going to do a refinance.
Maybe this isn't the year that you're as aggressive with
your write offs. You need to weigh the benefits with
your CPA of what you write off or don't write
off if you're an self employed or business owner, depending
on your importance and need for that refinance. So the
refinance on the conventional side is much more in depth.
It's no different than qualifying. They're going to go through
(28:42):
your financials, They're going to look at your stuff, and
you need to know what your credit is, what's happened
in the last few years, and it needs to make
enough of a difference in your payment. You're very likely
going to have to lump some fees in or come
out of pocket for that for that refinance. I tell
people most of the time that if your plan is
to sell the home than a year or two refinance
doesn't make sense because you're not likely to get your
(29:03):
money back, unless, of course, it's a streamline, then it's
then it's a no brainer to do most of the time.
But if you're gonna have to lump a bunch of
fees and costs into the loan to control or limit
your out of pocket cost, the likelihood of you getting
that back generally as a few years. So every situation
is a little bit different. Oscar and Melissa will look
(29:24):
at your specific situation to help you determine the right path.
Maybe you did put a bunch of money down and
now you need some cash out, you know, Maybe maybe
the loan to value isn't an issue. Maybe it'll pray,
it'll praise amazingly, but all those things matter. Similarly, if
you have a condo okay, and you don't have an
f h A VA that you can streamline, not only
(29:46):
do you have to qualify for that refinance with your
credit score and your income okay, but so does the
condo association. If there's anything that I've learned about the
condos in the last few years. They don't They're not
as valuables a to be. They've been depressed. The has
have problems. There are people delinquent. There are boards that
didn't do the right things structurally with the new contractor
(30:10):
rules because the buildings fell in. There's insurance issues. There's
a lot of people running into problems if they have
a condo and they want to refinance it. Their credit's great,
their incomes great, but the actual condo itself won't qualify
for a new mortgage, So you won't get someone to
pay off you're existing to give you a new mortgage
because they don't want the risk of your condo association.
(30:30):
So it isn't just you that has to qualify, it's
the condo association as well that has to qualify because
they're managing the asset for you. And just before we
jump to the last segment, one last thing on that.
I am a fan of real estate because of the
control that it gives you as an investment vehicle and
(30:51):
for your own wealth and your ability to improve it.
The more of that control that you give away to
third parties, the more your asset can be impacted hoa's
condo boards. People that get elected into those positions that
make self interested decisions and not good business decisions, can
impact your ability to refinance, can impact your value, can
(31:14):
impact your appreciation. It can have such a massive impact.
So the main argument for real estate over investing in
other things is your ability to control or improve it. Okay,
you give that benefit away buying into the condos and
the hoa's and all that. So I'm not as much
of a proponent of investing in real estate where you're
(31:37):
giving too much of the control a way, So hopefully
that helps make sense. Rebacken and wrap up our last
segment after a quick break here on the Duncan Do
a real estate show. So back here on the Duncan
Duo show talking about the Tampa Bay real estate market.
Andrew Duncan Duncan Do a Team LPT Realty at the
Duncan Duo. When we aren't on air, we're in growth mode.
If you're listening to the show today and you're thinking
about a real estate career in twenty two, okay, you've
(32:02):
seen friends crush it, you think you could be great
at real estate, or you're a current real estate agent.
You're a fan of the show, why aren't you working
on our team? We're growing. We just signed a new
deal with Realtor dot com market VIP. We increased our
ad spend. I'm very optimistic that twenty six is going
to be great. December of this year is going to
(32:23):
be our best month of the year. We have tons
of momentum going into twenty twenty six. I'm looking for
agents both to work with buyers as well as agents
that will work exclusively with home sellers on our team
and be coached personally by me on a daily basis.
We're looking to grow, and we're hiring agents. If you're
not happy where you're at, if you don't have the
(32:44):
structure that you want, if you're not getting the at
bats the opportunities, if you're not getting the leads. The
real estate market has changed. The ability to generate leads
has gotten more expensive. The ability for an individual real
estate agent to have a successful business on their own
because of the increase in costs and the advancement of
technology and AI is shrinking. Real Estate teams are the future.
(33:08):
They're going to continue growing and if you're not at
the right place, we would love the opportunity to help you.
You can slide into those dms. You can go on
the Duncan Duo on any of our social channels and
send us a message. Neither myself personally or Kat Benicci
are our director of Growth, will reach out to talk
to you about what your goals are and see if
we're a fit. We're not a fit for everyone. Okay,
(33:30):
we're not a fit for the agent that doesn't want
to work. We're not a fit for the agent that
wants to do a deal here and there. But if
you want to make a lot of money, and you
want to work hard, and you want to learn and
be coachable, we're the right place for you. So join
the duo dot com. You can apply for our open positions.
You can message us, you can set a calendar event
to actually talk confidentially about your real estate business and
(33:53):
how we can help you grow. And again you can
you can slide into those dms underny of the social chains.
A couple other things I want to point out about
agents that join our team. Like I mentioned, you're somebody
that wants the leads in the vats. You're somebody that
cares more about the money that you bring home to
your family than the splits she gets to tell your
friends on talk to agents all at the time.
Speaker 2 (34:14):
Oh, I don't want to.
Speaker 1 (34:15):
Join your company. You know your splits aren't advantageous to me.
And I look them up and they did two deals.
You know, it's like, should have worked at Walmart, buddy. Uh.
The reality is is like you're gonna do a lot
of transactions, so we're not gonna be the highest split,
but we're gonna give you a lot of leads and
we're gonna give you great service. We're gonna have transaction coordinators,
you're gonna have office space, you're gonna have tools, gonna
(34:35):
you're gonna focus on what you do best, which is selling,
and we're gonna take care of the marketing, the lead generation,
the transaction coordination, the marketing of listenings, the photography, the videography,
the signage. We're gonna take it off, all the administrative
stuff off your plate. Help you sell. So you know,
one hundred percent of zero is zero. If you're at
a place now where you're not making the income that
(34:56):
you want, we would love to talk to you because
we want agents that want to make maximum income, not
just you know, flex to be able to tell their
friends when they get liquored up a happy hour that
they're one hundred percent commission split. So if maximum income
that you bring home to your families, what you want
were the place. We also teach our agents how to
flip real estate, so our agents get to partner with
(35:17):
us and invest in flips that we buy, and I've
got a pretty good track record for doing well on those,
so we teach you that you have the ability to
invest into that. We do wealth building Wednesdays where I
teach agents that work for us about how to build wealth,
how to look at investments outside of real estate. So
we look at agents on our team not just as
people selling, but little mini entrepreneurs that we want to
(35:37):
help that we want to help grow. So you have
you have that you have constant coaching and accountability. With
our follow up balls system, we're able to help you
compete against other agents on the team to see what
they're doing and how they're performing and why they're beating
you or selling more than you. As well as the
ability for you to listen to listen in on great
salespeople in their phone calls. AI technology we've rolled out
(35:59):
with our partnership with Fellow, we have AI chat agents
that are now communicating with our leads, text, email, phone
calls even which is really crazy, but those are the
leverage pieces that we're deploying. Office space obviously, you know
a great need, a great fun, positive culture environment where
(36:20):
you can work, plug in and learn from other productive people,
and last but not least, a massive database and brand awareness.
Our agents that join us do more business with their
sphere of influence on our team than they did somewhere
else because of our brand recognition that when the customer
knows that they're working at our company, they're out there
seeing it's a forced multiplier. When they see a billboard
(36:42):
about our company, or they go to a lightning game
and they see an ad, or they hear this radio show,
they hear a radio ad, our agents benefit from that
with their own sphere of influence. We even teach classes
about how to how agents can get more business from
their friends and family and their sphere of influence. So
if you want to build a real estate career right
way and also learn how to run a team. We
(37:03):
have a lot of people that have joined our team
over the years that have gone out and had great
success because they've worked with us for a few years
and then decide it's time for them to build their
own team and from what they've learned. So so, it's
definitely an entrepreneurial environment. We'd love the opportunity to talk
to you again. You can do it join the duo
dot com, or you can go to any one of
our social channels and send us a message. We are
(37:23):
interviewing agents, we are growing. We hope to double our
business in twenty six from twenty five and would love
to help you double your income too. So again, Joindoduo
dot com and it's almost the end of the show.
I hope you had a great Christmas. I hope you're
excited for new years. And if real estate is in
your future, please set us up. We'd love the opportunity
to partner with you as well as whether you're buying, selling,
(37:45):
or thinking about joining our real estate team. And have
an awesome rest of your weekend. Tampa Bay
Happy Sunday, Tampa Bay with you for another week here
on the Duncan Duo Real Estate Show Christmas Weekend edition.
Hopefully you enjoyed your holiday week, and if you're listening
to us today, you are a committed listener and fan
of the Duncan Duo Show, and we're grateful for that.
So I want to start off the segment with just
(00:21):
a little bit of a recap of, you know, what
we've seen in the Tampa Bay real estate market, and
then talk about some really cool things come to Tampa Bay.
You know, last week's show I gave I gave you know,
some some highlights, and I'll do that in the second
segment today to talk about what I predict for twenty
twenty six is real estate market. Twenty twenty five was
a tough real estate market. We had you know, hurricane hangover,
(00:44):
high interest rates. You know, there is a lot of
optimism for you know for twenty twenty six, but our
prices took a hit this year. The number of transactions
took a hit year over year. We had fewer transactions
in the market and we had prices soften. Most Tampa
Bay homes unfortunately, most lost value in the past year.
(01:06):
Now the homeless that didn't lose value. You know, again,
new construction communities where they've kept building and values have
driven you know, those have done well, as well as
our luxury market and uber luxury market.
Speaker 2 (01:21):
Those have done well.
Speaker 1 (01:22):
But again, if you look at the number of homes
in Tampa Bay, the majority of them have lost value
in the last year. And we're hoping to reverse that
trend in twenty twenty six.
Speaker 2 (01:32):
But I want to.
Speaker 1 (01:32):
Talk about Tampa in general and why our real estate
market is an anomaly. Now you hear and again when
we aren't on airfols, on all of our socials at
the Duncan Duo, Twitter, Instagram, YouTube, TikTok, and Facebook, you
hear a lot of things about real estate from a
national perspective. Look, if you watch Fox News, if you
(01:55):
listen to any podcasts, if you check out CNBC. Most
of the time, unless you're hearing from a local real
estate professional in your market or a local publication, most
of the data that you're getting, even some of the
local publications. I saw something the other day. It's like
the real estate market in twenty six is going to
do this. Then everything in the article talked about the
case Shiller Index and different national reports which are irrelevant.
Speaker 2 (02:17):
Okay.
Speaker 1 (02:18):
A lot of news journalists do not understand how to
report on real estate.
Speaker 2 (02:22):
Okay. A lot of times it's given.
Speaker 1 (02:24):
To a lower or newer newsperson may not even be
a homeowner themselves, and they're just looking. They're either asking
AI or they're looking at national statistics and trends because
they don't understand real estate, or they think it's like
the stock market. If real estate is not typically stated
in a local fashion, the data that you're getting is
completely irrelevant. It's comparable to saying, like the high temperature
(02:47):
in the United States of America is sixty eight degrees today.
Real estate is so local. It's not the stock market.
It's not crypto. It doesn't go up big and go
down big. Okay, it doesn't move on this daily fluctuation.
It is the slowest moving economic market in the world.
Let me repeat that real estate is the slowest moving
(03:09):
economic market in the world. Things that happen take months
and months and months to trickle down and have an
impact on real estate. So when something happens from a
tax perspective, or there's a policy that gets passed or
there's something in your market that occurs takes months to
trickle down an impact.
Speaker 2 (03:27):
Okay.
Speaker 1 (03:28):
So Tampa, you know, has a bit of a positive
spin on twenty six and in prior years, prior to
this last year because of some of the things that
are happening economically.
Speaker 2 (03:42):
Now.
Speaker 1 (03:42):
We had hurricane impact, which which rocked our market in
twenty four and had some negative impact in twenty five
of course as well, but we still have population growth.
We have winning sports teams, you know, the Lightning, the
Buccaneers have been historically winning teams. The Race have been
a historically winning team. We have a client a business,
(04:05):
an economic climate that is very tax friendly, no state
income tax, potential abolishment of property taxes. People have made
political moves to Florida because they don't like what's happening
in other parts of the countries.
Speaker 2 (04:17):
All of these things are really positive.
Speaker 1 (04:19):
But some local things that are happening that I think
will continue to have a positive impact on Tampa Bay.
Speaker 2 (04:27):
Number One, we're getting younger. Okay.
Speaker 1 (04:30):
I remember a decade ago, if I talked to people
up north that were younger, they would say, oh, I
want to move to Orlando or Miami. We were kind
of not even in the conversation we reviewed as Oh,
you know, you go retire, you know, let's go retire
on the beach.
Speaker 2 (04:43):
Right.
Speaker 1 (04:44):
We're getting younger. Okay, more and more young people are
choosing Tampa and that is a really great thing for
our real estate market. The second thing is is development.
We continue to grow. We have land available. If you
look at some of the bigger cities throughoute the country,
their landlocked, they don't have land. They can't grow. Either
(05:05):
they're small or they're already over developed and they can't grow.
We still have a lot of land within close proximity
to our major employment centers, so our area still has
a massive amount of potential to grow. You can still,
you know, buy a home today, or have a home built,
or buy a new construction home being built and be
(05:25):
within a thirty ish minute drive to your job. Okay,
there are major cities throughout this country that can't do that.
Other things that are driving Tampa and look, I want
to give kudos to strategic property partners. What has happened
in downtown is amazing. I remember moving to Tampa Bay
(05:46):
twenty five years ago, and I lived and worked in
downtown Saint Pete and obviously over that period of time,
I remember thinking how sleepy, kind of snoozy it was,
and it was even better than tam at that point.
Both downtown Tampa and downtown Saint Pete have done remarkable
(06:06):
things to make our areas stand out and make our
area attractive, attracted to both tourists as well as people
that vacation here and say this is pretty awesome.
Speaker 2 (06:18):
Now.
Speaker 1 (06:19):
Ten years ago, if you went walked around downtown Tampa,
you didn't think that. But now you've got a winning team.
You've got incredible michel unrated restaurants and hotels. You've got uh,
walkable areas, You've got you know, apartments, condos, you've got
a waterfront and a riverfront that connects you to different
parts of Tampa. It's walkable, it's bikeable. You know, lots
(06:42):
of restaurants, lots of bars. You didn't have this.
Speaker 2 (06:45):
In the past.
Speaker 1 (06:46):
And so so if you cut across the bridge from
Tampa and you go to Saint Pete, it's a lot
of the same thing. You've got this you know, really
cool uh you know vibe in downtown Saint Pete. You've
got developedopment, you've got restaurants, you've got people, you've got
the pier, you've got the St. Pete Grand Prix. Over
(07:06):
the last ten years, both downtown Tampa and downtown Saint
Pete have had a remarkable transformation that is going to continue.
And it's going to continue because there's room for it.
There's there's plenty of areas then buildings that are still
old that can be redeveloped and turned into something cool.
There's some wonderful architects. But both the local governments, both
(07:28):
the local both the local governments have done incredible things
to move that development along, and it just continues to grow.
It continues to be a highlight that keeps people close.
And what's happened with Water Street. What's interesting is, for
the longest time you had this area kind of in
South Tampa that was the kind of the it area,
(07:49):
right where where.
Speaker 2 (07:50):
People wanted to live.
Speaker 1 (07:51):
And now that's expanded, it's expanded even further south. Okay,
so now there used to be a really negative stigma
attached to something south of Sandy Boulevard, where my office
is located. It's still not quite as positively viewed as
something north of Gandy, but it doesn't have nearly the
negative stigma used to same thing north of Kennedy Boulevard.
(08:11):
When you look at West Tampa, the area around Armature
Works and similar heights, that kind of cool, hip core
area has expanded and you see really cool urban design builds, walkable,
bikeable being built on the north side of downtown that
historically had been kind of, you know, look down upon
(08:32):
as maybe a not great area. Well, now that area
has really leveled up. Or again, same thing, nightlife, restaurants, walkable,
all of those things. So Water Street has basically caused
this expansion of kind of what you would consider like
our cool areas. The same thing happened to downtown Saint
Pete as downtown Saint.
Speaker 2 (08:51):
Pete got cool.
Speaker 1 (08:52):
Okay, there were areas that used to be frowned upon,
for example, the south side of Saint Pete. Property values
were pressed, they didn't perform as well. Those have definitely
moved up and become more attractive. You've seen this gentrification
and this youth movement into these areas, and it's massively
improved real estate values because those downtown areas become core targets.
(09:16):
People that were maybe living in you know, clear Water
or Palm Harbor or tarp and springs, They go out
to eat in downtown Saint Pete and they say, hey,
let's move a little closer, or someone visits on vacation,
they go to a hockey game. You know, despite what
some of the Canadian politicians say, we got a lot
of Canadians that have moved here that come and visit
(09:38):
and buy homes. They go to a hockey game, they
love it, and then they end up, you know, they
end up moving, they end up buying a second home here.
So this this movement towards these downtowns, and what it's
caused is this expansion and this attraction that we didn't
have before, because before we were reviewed as old and stodgy,
not cool and him. And in addition to that, you've
(09:59):
just got this move movement from from developers and builders
that are building really cool products. You've got properties being
built in downtown Tampa and Saint Pete as well as
in the Marina Point area that are hip, they're urban,
they're modern, they're they're they're much better than the sleepy
old condos that have been existing in Tampa for a
long time. So are our architecture and our build quality
(10:21):
is starting to attract. UH you know, people from all
over the world. The luxury client, the guy that is
used to a Manhattan penthouse. The millionaires that are wanting
to move to Florida, and it started during COVID. Okay,
the millionaires that are wanting to move here because they
can run their business from anywhere and they don't want
to pay state income tax. Okay, that crowd comes and
then what comes with it is money, job creation, gross
(10:48):
domestic product purchases. Restaurants need to be built. Okay, it's
a very positive thing for economy. Now here's the downside
of all that. So our real estate values have improved,
These downtowns are anchored. You know, we're past hurricane season,
or not past. We're another year of a clean hurricane season,
so that that that hurricane hangover has passed. We're moving
(11:11):
in a positive direction. It looks like interest rates moving
in a good direction. We may have some property tax relief.
The downside is our infrastructure. If you're a long time
Tampa resident, that the mart the real estate market gets improvement,
and the more people that come here, the more the
more are infrastructure struggles.
Speaker 2 (11:31):
So, uh, that's the downside.
Speaker 1 (11:33):
All these are good things for the real estate market,
for home values, for local economies, for job creation, for income.
They're not necessarily great for convenience. So that's the one
downside of all of this is that it's likely not
gonna get that much better. They're gonna be able to
add lanes and try and improve it, but that's simply reactive.
It's not ahead of in front of enough. If Tampa
(11:55):
keeps growing, it's gonna need to have very forward thinking
politicians and infrastructructure that make moves ahead of not not reactive,
but proactive to solve some of the traffic problems. And
of course we're no longer the secret we used to be.
The world has noticed we're going to get more people
move here, and our infrastructure is going to struggle. It's
(12:15):
going to take longer to get to work just going
to it's the commute's going to be longer. The traffic
is going to get worse. All of those things, again
can be seen negatively. A lot of people certainly economically
see them positively. So hopefully that helps you understand some
unique things that are helping drive Tampa's real estate Market'll
be back continue this conversation after a quick break here
on the Duncan Duo Show. So we're back here on
(12:36):
The Duncan Duo Show talking about the Tampa Bay real
estate market. And you know, I had this question and
I talked about it a week or two ago on
the show, and it was what was my prediction for
the real estate market in twenty twenty six? So I
want to use this segment to touch on that. And
you know, first and foremost, I believe that I'm already
(12:57):
seeing signs in the last couple of months of the
year in my big business that tell me that the
real estate market in Tampa Bay is going to be
better in twenty six than it was in twenty five.
And I'm going to go through a few you know,
points over the next few minutes about why that is
going to be. And again, this is Andrew Duncan with
the Doug and Duo team at LPT Realty, twenty year
(13:18):
real estate agent broker within the Tampa Bay market, a
few billion dollars in sales. So I got a little
bit of a track record and seeing the ups and
downs of real estate markets through my career, and what
I can tell you is that the last couple of
years have been rough and they've been rough for a
lot of reasons. One obviously economic pressures, two interest rates,
(13:39):
and three and probably the most pressing for Tampa Bay
were hurricane the hurricane impact from last year. So the
first reason why I believe our market will be better
in twenty six is the elephant in the room and
the biggest thing that's impacted and harmed our market, which is,
you know, the hurricane impact. So you know, I talked
to friends in other markets that had massive hrcane impacts,
(14:00):
and we got hit with two big ones back to back,
And even if your property wasn't damaged, the damage to
Tampa Bay as a region from a marketing perspective, from
a fear perspective, as well as the impact on areas
and the kind of the hangover from storm impact impacted
the entire market. It slowed down our market, It canceled sales,
(14:24):
It turned people to other parts of the country or
other parts of Florida. It had massive, a massive financial
as well as psychological impact. The longer we get away
from that without hurricane impact, the better our market kits.
So first and foremost, we had a clean hurricane season,
hopeful for another one and again another year with a
(14:46):
clean hurricane season and our market improves even more. The
second reason why I believe the real estate market will
improve in twenty six is because we have seen interst
rate relief. Now it hasn't translated did the FED drops
having completely translated to a you know, an interest rate drop.
(15:07):
And what I mean by that is the number of
BIPs that the FED has dropped hasn't completely turned into
the same number of BIPs on mortgages because the way
the Treasury yields work. But it has caused interest rates
for mortgages to drop. They are lower than they were
a year and two ago, so they're trending in that direction.
Most people expect that to continue. I expect that to continue.
(15:29):
I don't know if it'll continue as aggressively as the
President is pitching it, but I think that leads towards
the real estate market improving, and it does twofold because one,
it brings more buyers into the marketplace and gives them
more more budget. The second thing is that doesn't pull
some sellers off the fence. The lower the rate gets,
the more that sellers that are sitting in homes with
three percent and four percent mortgages, the more motivated they
(15:52):
get to say, you know what, now I want to
sell my home and buy another, and those are two transactions.
So I believe that increases transactions. Another reason why I
belie leave the real estate market in twenty six will
be better. Now that President Trump has been in office
for a year, he has another year maybe of maybe more,
but another year of controlling the House in the Senate,
(16:13):
I believe that we will see some pro real estate actions, legislation,
and politics that help improve our real estate market. Whether
that's the proposed fifty year mortgage, whether that's tax benefits,
whether those are executive actions to public make public Fanny
and Freddy or more publicize them. All of those things
(16:35):
lead towards me being more bullish about real estate in
twenty six. The last thing, which I think is the
wild card, and that is property taxes. One thing I've
learned about markets, whether it's real estate or stock or crypto,
whatever it is, the markets move ahead of the news.
They move ahead of the speculation. So when interest rates
(16:57):
are expected to drop, the market prices it in and
predicts it. When the Fed is expected to put in liquidity,
the markets move in the direction of the expectation, not
the actual news. So as we get closer to the
end of twenty six, there's going to be a lot
of talk about the abolishment of property taxes or massive
property tax relief in Florida that could lead toward towards
(17:20):
some home owners not having property taxes at all. There's
a big push throughout the country. It has momentum. Our
state is aligned from a political environment to have a
chance at having that pass a sixty percent constitutional amendment.
The closer we get to that date, the more bullish
real estate becomes. Because it will knock some people off
the fence. It will also move some people here as
(17:42):
it gets closer to that day to becoming more likely
if the constitutional amendment happens in twenty six and this
impacts in twenty seven, but the market moves ahead of that. Okay,
So if it starts to look more and more likely,
our real estate market will see some improvement. People will
act in anticipation of that because they'll want to act
before the pump up that the market would expect from
(18:03):
homeowners not having to pay property tax anymore.
Speaker 2 (18:05):
AKA, prices would go up and people would move here.
Speaker 1 (18:08):
We would have more demand, we would have more appreciation
and a lot of the rumblings and complaints about the
scarlet letter in our real estate market, insurance would go
away because taxes are a lot more than insurance. So
for all of those reasons, I'm very bullish and optimistic
about twenty twenty six and twenty twenty seven. And if
(18:29):
you want to stay up to date and see as
the statistics come out, you want to know what's going
on in the market, you can follow us at the
Dunkin Duo and all of our socials. You can also
know what's going on in your neighborhood with your house
dunkinduo dot com. Type in your address giuse you a
free market report. You get to know. You know what's
going on in your neighborhood, what your neighbors soldier house for,
(18:50):
who in your neighborhood's in foreclosure, You know all of that.
You can also get an instant cash offer at dunkinduo
dot com. Or We're going to be back continuing this
conversation after a quick break here on the Duncan Duo Show.
So back here on the Duncan Duo Show talking about
the Tampa Bay real estate market. Andrew Duncan, the Duncan
duo team LPT Realty at the Duncan Duo.
Speaker 2 (19:11):
When we aren't on.
Speaker 1 (19:12):
Air, I want to talk next about Airbnb, and we
get this question a lot. We get a lot of
customers that want to buy a home and airbnb it.
And I want to talk about this because there's a
lot of misinformation out there about doing an Airbnb for
(19:34):
real estate. And so the reason why I say misinformation
is because Airbnb kind of really blew up during COVID,
the COVID market when when mortgage rates were cheaper, When
write post COVID, more people are traveling, hotels were closed,
so it was a way for people to make extra money.
(19:55):
It was a way for people to find you know,
vacancye an occupancy. But it isn't nearly as hot of
a market as it used to be because Airbnb, for
the most part, the fees, costs, management structure in our market. Okay,
so I'm not talking about buying an Airbnb and Ashville
or somewhere in North Carolina or Tennessee. I'm talking about
(20:17):
Tampa Bay doing an Airbnb here. The cost of insurance,
the flood insurance, all of those things make it make
it economically not make a ton of sense if that's
your sole purpose. Now, if you're going to buy a
vacation home that you're going to use and you want
to airbnb at first some extra income here and there, okay,
maybe that can work. But if you're buying an airbnb
in Tampa Bay purely for return on investment, I would
(20:39):
tell you you're marking up the wrong tree, probably in
the wrong market, probably not quite grasping what our insurance
and taxes are, and you're probably gonna run into mistakes, challenges,
and frankly regulations. So the reason why the airbnbs were
so successful is because of cheap money. Well, money isn't
(21:01):
as cheap anymore. The other reason is because we were
seeing this massive appreciation, so somebody could run out of house,
make some money on Airbnb, and he or too later
exit that house and make a ton of money. We're
not seeing appreciation like that anymore. So the obstacle with
airbnb is that economically it doesn't make a ton of
sense in our market anymore. The cap rate, the numbers
(21:22):
just don't make sense. So if you're thinking about airbnbing,
here again my recommendation is look at other markets. The
second thing I would tell you if you're dead set
on doing an airbnb in Tampa Bay. There are so
many people that make the mistake of assuming that you know,
you have this you know right to do an airbnb. Well,
(21:44):
there are a lot of problems with doing an airbnb
in Tampa Bay. First, you've got to you know, we're
talking about a lot of local governments. You've got cities,
you've got counties, and then you've got all these little
cities along the beach and little cities and municipalities throughout
Tampa Bay. Okay, river View, Brain of Va Rico, Indian
Rocks Beach, Saint Pete Beach, Clearwater, Palm Harbor, tarp and Springs.
Speaker 2 (22:05):
Okay.
Speaker 1 (22:06):
The governmental choices and regulatory bodies and decisions about whether
or not short term rentals are allowed varies from one
to the other.
Speaker 2 (22:15):
Okay, there's not some.
Speaker 1 (22:16):
Rule that over arches the entire area that says you
can or you can't. Most of the local governments are
issuing or putting regulations in place that are pretty anti
short term rental, meaning putting limitations on how often you
can or can't do it. And if you do and
you don't have the proper regulation or permit or filing,
and they catch it, they find you. Okay, they find you,
(22:39):
they put leans on your house, they cause problems. So
local governments are causing a problem for people that want
to do an airbnb because they're against it. Okay, most
of them are against it. Most of them have regulations
that prevent you or limit how often you can do it.
The next part of the airbnb obstacle is the homeowners association. Okay,
(22:59):
so if a city has a regulation, then there could
be a HOA or condo board regulation on top of
whatever the city or county or a municipality says.
Speaker 2 (23:10):
So it's it's.
Speaker 1 (23:11):
From a regulatory environment. It is putting an extra strain
on your ability to rent out that house. Far too
many people buy them and think, oh, I'll just do it,
I'll get away with it, and you won't okay, and
you'll have problems. You're gonna get fined, you're gonna have
you're gonna have issues.
Speaker 2 (23:26):
Okay. So there are a lot.
Speaker 1 (23:28):
Of people that don't understand the nuances of what you know,
where you can do an airbnb, and and what the
benefits are. The second thing, like I mentioned, our market
isn't appreciating if you don't do your research. Okay, you
go and you buy a house and you're gonna airbnb it. Okay,
you didn't do your research ahead of time. Six months
later you're gonna go sell that house because you realize,
(23:49):
oh whoops, this.
Speaker 2 (23:50):
Is a lot harder than I thought.
Speaker 1 (23:51):
This isn't easy to do this. I can't really easily
airbnb this house. Guess what happens. Now you go to
sell it and you're in the red card feast is
buy it. You've incurd feest to sell it. You can't
recruit because homes aren't appreciating. You're selling it for less
than what you bought a four plus all the fees.
You take a huge hit. You have to do your
due diligence. Do not trust a real estate agent that
(24:15):
tells you you can airbn be a property. Let me
repeat that, do not trust a real estate agent that
tells you you can airbnb a property. Okay, do your
due diligence. Talk to the local municipalities, whatever the city,
whatever the county.
Speaker 2 (24:31):
Look at the HOA rules.
Speaker 1 (24:33):
Read the big binder of PDF documents that are sent
to you by your real estate agent that are the
HOA bylaws or the condominiing doactments actually read them? Ninety
nine percent of consumers don't. They don't read them, and
then they call six months later upset because they find
something in them because they didn't read them, and then
they blame the real estate agent who was expected to
read two hundred and seventy two pages and have it
(24:54):
all memorized. Okay, read the documents. Okay, read the documents.
So Airbnb proceed with caution. It can be a great
thing that a lot of markets, our market probably.
Speaker 2 (25:07):
Isn't the right one for that.
Speaker 1 (25:09):
So trending UH a trending topic that we're starting to
get questions about now. We have a partnership with Citywide
Home Mortgage Citywide Tampa dot com, Melissa and Oscar.
Speaker 2 (25:21):
Are you know loyal loan.
Speaker 1 (25:24):
Officers that are that are in the trenches every day
helping our helping our customers buy UH and and mortgage
and refinance real estate. We're starting to get questions now
about people thinking about refinancing. So I want to give
some tips today about what to look at when you're
thinking about doing a refinance on your existing home. First
and foremost, if you have a VA or an f
(25:46):
H A mortgage. Okay, you really want to look at
your rate and understand and know what refinance products are
out there. There are people that don't do FAHA or
VA loans, but we'll try and re finance you into
a conventional mortgage and cost you a bunch of money,
cost you closing costs, cost you extra feeds. VA and
(26:08):
FHA mortgagees have a streamline process okay, where you can
simply just lower your rate. The qualification steps are much lighter,
you don't have to jump through as many hoops. Okay,
it's an amazing product. If you have a VA FAHA
mortgage and you simply just want to lower your interest rate,
lower your payment, potentially even skip a payment, just go
(26:30):
to citywide Tampa dot com. Get that Citywide Tampa dot com.
If you've owned your home for the if you've bought
in the last few years, your rate maybe lower. And
if it's not yet, our loan officers will tell you, hey,
wait wait another six months, wait another three months, rates
will come down a little bit more. You may not
have an immediate need, but you might in the future. Okay,
(26:51):
So Citywide Tampa dot Com via FHA streamline refinance. If
you have one of those loans. It's a very quick
it's not very quick, but it's much quicker than a
typical refinance, is okay. Now, another thing to think about
when you're, you know, considering refinances on a conventional mortgage.
Speaker 2 (27:11):
So let's say that you are.
Speaker 1 (27:14):
Not necessarily a VIA or FHA person, you don't have
a VA or FH a loan, you have a traditional
conventional mortgage, and you're thinking about getting doing a refinance. Now,
it will depend on when you bought, but if you
don't have an FHA or VA, your home is going
to have to appraise at the number, at a particular number.
It's going to not have you know, if you're going
to refinance, the home has to appraise at what you're
(27:38):
going to refinance for. If it doesn't, then you may
not be able to. Secondly, you're going to need to
be able to prove you still have the ability you're
going to have to qualify for that refinance. Your income
still needs to be good, your credit still needs to
be good. It's it's similar to going through the qualification
to buy a house on a conventional loan. You're going
to need to be able to go through that process.
Show your income. Document your income, look at your look
(28:00):
at your assets. The bank is going to need to
make an informed decision to be able to help refinance you.
So if you don't have all those things lined up,
you need to do some homework on your credit score.
You need to be prepared. You need to make sure
your incomes are reported a certain way. If you haven't,
you know, if you haven't, you know locked in your taxes.
You've got a little bit of time left. Talk to
(28:22):
your CPA, say hey, I'm going to do a refinance.
Maybe this isn't the year that you're as aggressive with
your write offs. You need to weigh the benefits with
your CPA of what you write off or don't write
off if you're an self employed or business owner, depending
on your importance and need for that refinance. So the
refinance on the conventional side is much more in depth.
It's no different than qualifying. They're going to go through
(28:42):
your financials, They're going to look at your stuff, and
you need to know what your credit is, what's happened
in the last few years, and it needs to make
enough of a difference in your payment. You're very likely
going to have to lump some fees in or come
out of pocket for that for that refinance. I tell
people most of the time that if your plan is
to sell the home than a year or two refinance
doesn't make sense because you're not likely to get your
(29:03):
money back, unless, of course, it's a streamline, then it's
then it's a no brainer to do most of the time.
But if you're gonna have to lump a bunch of
fees and costs into the loan to control or limit
your out of pocket cost, the likelihood of you getting
that back generally as a few years. So every situation
is a little bit different. Oscar and Melissa will look
(29:24):
at your specific situation to help you determine the right path.
Maybe you did put a bunch of money down and
now you need some cash out, you know, Maybe maybe
the loan to value isn't an issue. Maybe it'll pray,
it'll praise amazingly, but all those things matter. Similarly, if
you have a condo okay, and you don't have an
f h A VA that you can streamline, not only
(29:46):
do you have to qualify for that refinance with your
credit score and your income okay, but so does the
condo association. If there's anything that I've learned about the
condos in the last few years. They don't They're not
as valuables a to be. They've been depressed. The has
have problems. There are people delinquent. There are boards that
didn't do the right things structurally with the new contractor
(30:10):
rules because the buildings fell in. There's insurance issues. There's
a lot of people running into problems if they have
a condo and they want to refinance it. Their credit's great,
their incomes great, but the actual condo itself won't qualify
for a new mortgage, So you won't get someone to
pay off you're existing to give you a new mortgage
because they don't want the risk of your condo association.
(30:30):
So it isn't just you that has to qualify, it's
the condo association as well that has to qualify because
they're managing the asset for you. And just before we
jump to the last segment, one last thing on that.
I am a fan of real estate because of the
control that it gives you as an investment vehicle and
(30:51):
for your own wealth and your ability to improve it.
The more of that control that you give away to
third parties, the more your asset can be impacted hoa's
condo boards. People that get elected into those positions that
make self interested decisions and not good business decisions, can
impact your ability to refinance, can impact your value, can
(31:14):
impact your appreciation. It can have such a massive impact.
So the main argument for real estate over investing in
other things is your ability to control or improve it. Okay,
you give that benefit away buying into the condos and
the hoa's and all that. So I'm not as much
of a proponent of investing in real estate where you're
(31:37):
giving too much of the control a way, So hopefully
that helps make sense. Rebacken and wrap up our last
segment after a quick break here on the Duncan Do
a real estate show. So back here on the Duncan
Duo show talking about the Tampa Bay real estate market.
Andrew Duncan Duncan Do a Team LPT Realty at the
Duncan Duo. When we aren't on air, we're in growth mode.
If you're listening to the show today and you're thinking
about a real estate career in twenty two, okay, you've
(32:02):
seen friends crush it, you think you could be great
at real estate, or you're a current real estate agent.
You're a fan of the show, why aren't you working
on our team? We're growing. We just signed a new
deal with Realtor dot com market VIP. We increased our
ad spend. I'm very optimistic that twenty six is going
to be great. December of this year is going to
(32:23):
be our best month of the year. We have tons
of momentum going into twenty twenty six. I'm looking for
agents both to work with buyers as well as agents
that will work exclusively with home sellers on our team
and be coached personally by me on a daily basis.
We're looking to grow, and we're hiring agents. If you're
not happy where you're at, if you don't have the
(32:44):
structure that you want, if you're not getting the at
bats the opportunities, if you're not getting the leads. The
real estate market has changed. The ability to generate leads
has gotten more expensive. The ability for an individual real
estate agent to have a successful business on their own
because of the increase in costs and the advancement of
technology and AI is shrinking. Real Estate teams are the future.
(33:08):
They're going to continue growing and if you're not at
the right place, we would love the opportunity to help you.
You can slide into those dms. You can go on
the Duncan Duo on any of our social channels and
send us a message. Neither myself personally or Kat Benicci
are our director of Growth, will reach out to talk
to you about what your goals are and see if
we're a fit. We're not a fit for everyone. Okay,
(33:30):
we're not a fit for the agent that doesn't want
to work. We're not a fit for the agent that
wants to do a deal here and there. But if
you want to make a lot of money, and you
want to work hard, and you want to learn and
be coachable, we're the right place for you. So join
the duo dot com. You can apply for our open positions.
You can message us, you can set a calendar event
to actually talk confidentially about your real estate business and
(33:53):
how we can help you grow. And again you can
you can slide into those dms underny of the social chains.
A couple other things I want to point out about
agents that join our team. Like I mentioned, you're somebody
that wants the leads in the vats. You're somebody that
cares more about the money that you bring home to
your family than the splits she gets to tell your
friends on talk to agents all at the time.
Speaker 2 (34:14):
Oh, I don't want to.
Speaker 1 (34:15):
Join your company. You know your splits aren't advantageous to me.
And I look them up and they did two deals.
You know, it's like, should have worked at Walmart, buddy. Uh.
The reality is is like you're gonna do a lot
of transactions, so we're not gonna be the highest split,
but we're gonna give you a lot of leads and
we're gonna give you great service. We're gonna have transaction coordinators,
you're gonna have office space, you're gonna have tools, gonna
(34:35):
you're gonna focus on what you do best, which is selling,
and we're gonna take care of the marketing, the lead generation,
the transaction coordination, the marketing of listenings, the photography, the videography,
the signage. We're gonna take it off, all the administrative
stuff off your plate. Help you sell. So you know,
one hundred percent of zero is zero. If you're at
a place now where you're not making the income that
(34:56):
you want, we would love to talk to you because
we want agents that want to make maximum income, not
just you know, flex to be able to tell their
friends when they get liquored up a happy hour that
they're one hundred percent commission split. So if maximum income
that you bring home to your families, what you want
were the place. We also teach our agents how to
flip real estate, so our agents get to partner with
(35:17):
us and invest in flips that we buy, and I've
got a pretty good track record for doing well on those,
so we teach you that you have the ability to
invest into that. We do wealth building Wednesdays where I
teach agents that work for us about how to build wealth,
how to look at investments outside of real estate. So
we look at agents on our team not just as
people selling, but little mini entrepreneurs that we want to
(35:37):
help that we want to help grow. So you have
you have that you have constant coaching and accountability. With
our follow up balls system, we're able to help you
compete against other agents on the team to see what
they're doing and how they're performing and why they're beating
you or selling more than you. As well as the
ability for you to listen to listen in on great
salespeople in their phone calls. AI technology we've rolled out
(35:59):
with our partnership with Fellow, we have AI chat agents
that are now communicating with our leads, text, email, phone
calls even which is really crazy, but those are the
leverage pieces that we're deploying. Office space obviously, you know
a great need, a great fun, positive culture environment where
(36:20):
you can work, plug in and learn from other productive people,
and last but not least, a massive database and brand awareness.
Our agents that join us do more business with their
sphere of influence on our team than they did somewhere
else because of our brand recognition that when the customer
knows that they're working at our company, they're out there
seeing it's a forced multiplier. When they see a billboard
(36:42):
about our company, or they go to a lightning game
and they see an ad, or they hear this radio show,
they hear a radio ad, our agents benefit from that
with their own sphere of influence. We even teach classes
about how to how agents can get more business from
their friends and family and their sphere of influence. So
if you want to build a real estate career right
way and also learn how to run a team. We
(37:03):
have a lot of people that have joined our team
over the years that have gone out and had great
success because they've worked with us for a few years
and then decide it's time for them to build their
own team and from what they've learned. So so, it's
definitely an entrepreneurial environment. We'd love the opportunity to talk
to you again. You can do it join the duo
dot com, or you can go to any one of
our social channels and send us a message. We are
(37:23):
interviewing agents, we are growing. We hope to double our
business in twenty six from twenty five and would love
to help you double your income too. So again, Joindoduo
dot com and it's almost the end of the show.
I hope you had a great Christmas. I hope you're
excited for new years. And if real estate is in
your future, please set us up. We'd love the opportunity
to partner with you as well as whether you're buying, selling,
(37:45):
or thinking about joining our real estate team. And have
an awesome rest of your weekend. Tampa Bay
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