March 15, 2026 • 41 mins
In this episode of the Duncan Duo Radio Show, host Andrew Duncan discusses the impact of the Iran war on the real estate market in Tampa Bay. He breaks down the current market trends, explaining how the war is causing fear and volatility, leading to a decrease in home sales and prices. Andrew also highlights the disparity between different asset classes within the real estate market, such as single-family homes, condos, and townhomes, which are performing differently due to unique factors. He shares his optimism for the future of the market, citing potential rate cuts, insurance price drops, and tax reforms as positives.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to the Duncan Duo radio show hosted by Andrew Duncan,
the official real estate agents of the Tampa Bay Lightning.
It's Tampa Bay's top selling real estate team with over
three billion dollars in sales and thousands of homes closed.
Sell your home with these guaranteed in fourteen days or
they'll buy it. Basically at the Duncan Duo dot com.
(00:20):
Here's your host, Andrew Duncan.
Speaker 2 (00:26):
Happy Sunday, Tampa Bay. Here for another week talk and
about real estate. And you know, one of the topics
you know, circulating right now and obviously kind of controlling
the national narrative is the war in Iran and the
impact on oil prices, the economy, in the stock market.
I want to talk a little bit about what that
means to real estate and kind of how the real
(00:47):
estate market is impacted by what's going on. And so,
first and foremost, anytime you have a conflict like this,
it causes fear. It causes fear, but it also causes
massive volatility. You'll see the real estate market get some
impact from it because you know, people buying their home.
(01:07):
And when I say people buying their home, I don't
mean the investors or you know, naturally the people buying
commercial real estate aren't as impacted, but I mean people,
you know, regular people buying their house, their first time
home or their second home, selling their home, buying their home. Okay.
So the first thing that impacts in something like this
(01:29):
is the fear that kicks in from a war that's
going on. The volatility and the financial markets, and that
up and down causes people to look at the money
that they have invested, the money in their four oh
one K, their IRA, the money they have in stocks,
and they see it, you know, declining. Okay, They see
the downward portion of that swinging downward, and it causes
(01:51):
them to step back and be fearful and oftentimes maybe
continue sitting on the sidelines or cancel the deal, or
in some rare circumstances, it causes them not to have
enough reserves to be able to close or to be
able to have the down payment because there's enough of
a decline in there in their asset situation that causes problems.
So any time there is something that causes fear or volatility,
(02:14):
it does have an impact on real estate, specifically for
those buyers that are buying their own home to live in.
So what if you've experienced in the first year of
the Trump administration, much more so than his first four years,
is a massive amount of volatility. You've got. You know,
you've had the tariff escalation, You've had the you know,
the Iran war. We've had multiple trade things that have
(02:38):
caused you know, upswings and down swings in the market.
There's been stuff about AI that's caused some obstacles. All
of those things slow the real estate market because buying
a home is very emotional for most people. So when
they see this and experience this, their emotion kicks in
and their fear kicks in. And one thing I've learned
through all the years in this business is that the
(03:00):
majority of home buyers are more driven by fear than
they are excitement. So they're looking for a reason to
walk away. It's the same thing that happens in the
transaction itself. You're you're seeing right now record high cancelations
of contract and part of the reason for that is
because again, the housing market hasn't really recovered. We haven't
seen a boom in real estate yet. We've had higher
(03:22):
interest rates, and then of course you sprinkle on a
little war on there, and it's got people a little
bit concerned. So if they see something in their inspection report,
they're already a little bit more afraid and they run
to safety, which is, you know, back to their apartment
or back to their mom's house or you know, or
back to the house they're living in now that's cheaper,
not the one they really want to be in. So
whenever you have these situations and these escalations and conflicts
(03:45):
and you know, trade disputes, all these things that drive
down the stock market, it does impact real estate and
it causes that fear to kind of lead buyers. Now
what I want to talk about next, though, you know,
in that same token, you have the fear that kicks
in from you know, the consumers. They're afraid. They don't
(04:06):
want to act, they want to wait for this to
get cleared up. But it's also pressing down on them
financially because you're seeing gas prices rise, their expenses rise. Potentially,
if this carries on for a while, you know, we
get back into an increasing inflation environment and then you
start to have problems with affordability even more so so.
(04:27):
Interest rates have been down at their two or three
year low or four year low even which which is
improving affordability. But if people's everyday costs start increasing because
gas gets more expensive and you know, energy gets more expensive,
that also has a negative impact. You know. So in
addition to emotional there's the financial side of what happens
(04:51):
when we have this conflict. But it's one of the
beautiful parts about real estate. That that why I always
encourage people to do what they can to push through that.
We know most of these conflicts are short lived in
terms of their the you know, I call it fear
and desperation, the selling off of the market, the declining
of assets, the stocks that drop two or three percent
(05:11):
or sometimes even more depending on how volidle it is
in a day. Real estate doesn't do that. That's one
of the nicest, most beautiful benefits of real estate is
that if you buy real estate, it is such a
slow moving market that these upswings and down swings don't
cause your house to drop two to five percent in
a day like can happen in the stock market or
crypto for example. So real estate is such a great
(05:34):
hedge against what may be going on in the rest
of your financial life with that volatility, because it's not
going to experience the swings up and down in price.
It just doesn't move like that. It's so slow moving.
You're talking longer closings. It just takes so long for
things to trickle into an impact real estate. So from
a just from a flight to safety perspective, you see
(05:58):
real estate investors, you know, start an investment pick up
some during these situations because maybe there's they're allocating or
reallocating their assets from the public markets and saying, Okay,
I'm not loving what's happening in the stock market right now.
I'm not loving this volatility. Where can I put my
money where there's still probably a pretty good gain in there,
(06:19):
but I don't have these huge swings where it's up
and it's down. And every time the president you know,
post something on x that, you know, the market drops
two percent, or every time he goes on a speech
and says that the war isn't really over yet or
it's going to be a few more weeks, and then
the market gets crushed. Your how your home value doesn't
get impacted by that. So a lot of people acting
(06:41):
and pulling away from real estate, they actually should be
doing quite the opposite because it doesn't have the same
effect that people think that it does. People think, oh,
you know, I don't want to buy a house now
because the stock market's getting, you know, wrecked. That's actually
the reason you should be buying a house or investing
in real estate. You should be re allocating assets potentially
(07:01):
if you're too heavy in the stock market in a
period of volatility. And let's face it, the next few
years under President Trump, they're going to continue to be volatile. Uh,
there's just no question about it. He is a president
of action, good or bad. I think mostly good, some bad.
Uh he is. He's in a president of action. So
you're gonna see this volatility, and it's going to cause,
(07:23):
you know, the fear to kick in for people. So
if you're an experienced investor or someone who just simply
wants to move money out of the market because they're
tired of that volatility, now is a great time to
look at real estate. We've we've we've been in this
period of time for the last years where we've seen
a little bit of appreciate. We're starting to see some
appreciation again, not a ton sales are down and rates
(07:44):
have gotten better, so it is building up it's you know,
there's there's a pent up kind of build up that's
happening with real estate. And and I think this this
war and Iran is kind of holding it back a
little bit more than it would have been had it
not happened. Had it not hapen, and I think we
could potentially see some more interest rate relief. I think
inflation was heading in the right direction. We've got a
(08:05):
new FED share coming in. I think that people were
excited about housing. I think that specifically in Tampa Bay
where a couple you know, we're another year away from
you know, the bad hurricanes that we got. I feel
like everything was heading in a really positive direction for
real estate. But this is kind of that cloud that's
hanging over the real estate market. It's going to cause
some obstacles. But it is not based in fact or
(08:30):
historical precedent that people should run away from real estate
right now. In fact, it's quite the opposite. It is
a safe haven compared to the volatility of the stock market.
So we know that President Trump has an agenda to
juice the housing market. He has said it. He's made
it clear that he wants a better real estate market.
(08:50):
He wants to protect people's assets and protect their home
values and create more home sales. We know he's very
much involved with attempting to have some impact on interest
rates as well on housing policy. I think some of
that is a little bit tabled right now. I think
some of those things would have been in motion already,
but can't really get rolling until the conflict in Iran,
(09:13):
you know, gets resolved. So, like I mentioned, it's a
psychological emotional challenge to the real estate market, but it
is a financial one too because if it continues and
gas prices rise, that does start to hurt people. It
limits their debt to income ratio that now they're incurring
more expenses, their money is going towards things they are
more expensive than they were when they first looked at buying,
(09:34):
And unfortunately, even interest rates have this volatility. So what
I can tell you as a home buyer is take
a step back and really think about why you're buying
and does the thesis of why you're buying, especially if
you're buying for the long term change, because the situation
in Iran, Does the reason you're buying change? Most of
(09:55):
the time that answer is no, And in fact, I
think it is a a wonderful safe haven that can
provide people more stability in their financial world. So if
you needed to take money out of the market, obviously
maybe not on a really bad day, but if you
needed to take money out of the market to put
(10:15):
it into real estate, psychologically, I think you're going to
see less of that. You're gonna feel less of that
up and down. And there are people that go through
these volatile periods and they say, you know what, this
is now a time for me to think about maybe
buying some investment real estate because I'm tired of this,
these these fluctuations, these wild swings up and down. And
I can tell you the wild swings up and down.
(10:37):
They're going to continue. I mean, they just are. There's
just no way around it. It's going to keep going
in that direction. It's going to keep being volatile. I
don't know how quickly Iran is going to get resolved.
It's going to cause gas prices to rise. I don't
know for how long. But again, the point is that
if you're making a choice about buying or selling your
(10:57):
home because of a war thousands of miles away, that
realistically that asset has a very safe kind of protected
bubble over it that some of the other markets don't have.
It's it's more of a safe haven long term. So
I also saw something recently because I people get a
little bit fearmongered to death about real estate, especially anyone
(11:19):
that grew up during a great recession. I say, oh,
foreclosures are rising. Foreclosures are gonna, you know, take over
the war and the loss of labor and all these things.
That we had such a run up in prices that
the majority and and there's been so many cash sales
that the majority of people, the majority of sales people
(11:40):
are in strong equity positions. The number of foreclosures right
now is one tenth, one tenth what it was at peak.
So we're not in some situation where we're dealing with
a market crash. And Iran is certainly not going to
crash our real estate markets. So I am still very
optimistic about what's coming with the Tampa real estate market.
We've just got some things to get through. I think
the second half for this year, we get through the
(12:01):
conflict with Iran, so the kind of the emotional hangover
goes away and inflation kind of gets reeled in. We
see some rate cuts this year. We get through another
safe hurricane season. I think later this year and then
in twenty seven we're going to see some really really
healthy price appreciation and a much more balanced real estate market.
That's my prediction. That's what I'm sticking to. So, if
(12:21):
you're a buyer or seller right now and you're running
away because of the conflict with Iran and the constant
messaging of the mass media keeping you afraid, which is
what it's supposed to do, so you keep watching and
keep hearing the ads and advertisers keep paying, I would
tell you to take a deep breath, take a step back,
and evaluate whether or not the thesis for you buying
(12:44):
or selling still makes sense. And it probably still does.
So we'll be back after a quick break here on
the Duncan Duo Show.
Speaker 1 (12:50):
Back to the Duncan two oh radio show, the official
real estate Agents of the Tampa Bay Likening top team
in Tampa Bay over at three billion sold in counting
no Your host Andrew.
Speaker 2 (13:01):
Duncan back here chatting about the real estate market. I
talked in the first segment about the impact of the
Iran war, oil prices and the you know, kind of
the fluctuations and volatility and stock market and its impact
on real estate. What I want to talk about next though,
is kind of a more of a local approach to
what we have going on. And so the real estate
(13:25):
market kind of has different segments, no different than the
stock market. If you look at the stock market, you
might see a day where you're like, oh, the market's down,
but chip stocks did great today, or the market's up
and Walmart and retail did bad, you know, or you
know the the you know, kind of the traditional the
big seven, the meg mag seven they call them, you know, Google, Amazon,
(13:50):
Maybe they had a great day and then smaller, you know,
small companies and mid caps got crushed. So the real
estate market is similar in terms of its asset class
as well as location. So when you hear things like, oh,
prices didn't appreciate, okay, or home sales are down, you
(14:10):
have to understand that that is that is basically encapsulating
all product types. That is, you know, there is there
is a massive difference between what is going on right
now in our real estate market with single family homes
versus condos. So when you see the statistic that says, oh,
prices are down or inventory is higher, but you break
(14:34):
that down per asset class, and it's and it changes
a lot. So for example, single family home is still
appreciating while condos are depreciating. We sell modest couple percentage
points a year over year. We saw some zip codes
well priced homes in South Tampa West chased Carol Wood
moving quickly, going above asking prices accelerating. It really does
(14:58):
depend on the product type you're buying. You could say
the stock market had a bad day, but then there's
a sector that did really good. And I think you
could say the same thing about our real estate market
in Tampa Bay right now. There are parts of Tampa
Bay that aren't performing as well as others. There are
assets like single family homes that are outperforming condos. There
are townhomes that are kind of right in the middle.
There's land, there's commercial real estate, and then of course
(15:21):
there's coastal and luxury and average price points. When you
segment off all of these, you know, these these asset
classes within real estate, they're performing much differently, probably the
most disparity between the asset classes in my entire career,
where you know, different asset classes aren't performing the same
(15:44):
as others because of unique things that have happened, and
I want to talk about those. So I mentioned before
single family homes price is still rising. You could look
at the single family home market and if you separated
out all the condos and townhomes and just looked at
single family homes, you'd say, man, that looks like a
pretty healthy market right now. That there's appreciation, it's a
balanced inventory. It's doing well. And then you add to
(16:06):
town homes, and townhomes perform a little bit better than
condos because they can be financed at a higher loan
to value and you own the land. You have a
little bit more control over the property than in a
condo where you only own your internal walls. They're kind
of the in between that you know, that might look
like also a balanced, kind of even market. And then
you look at condos and say, my goodness, it's getting
(16:29):
crushed high inventory depreciation. You know, you know, massive problems
in certain communities where those communities are just getting smoked
things like you know, insurance and engineering reports and rising
HOA fees because people aren't paying or because the building
has to be retrofitted to some of the new guidelines.
(16:50):
So the condo market performing completely different than single family
and townhomes, and it's really dragging all the averages down.
So if you look at Tamny safe man Ah, it's
kind of I don't know about the markets. It doesn't
seem to be doing great. If you average all the
product types out, that's accurate. But if you took condos out,
you'd say man Mark's doing pretty good. On that same token.
(17:12):
You can also divvy it up by price range. And
one of the things I see going on in the
current administration, you're seeing the wealth gap widen. Whether you
like it or not, it appears to be that's what's happening.
And so the luxury real estate market still kicking, you know,
still doing incredibly well. But then when you look at
affordable and lower price point homes not performing as well.
(17:33):
So if you want to really know what's going on
with your specific property type in neighborhood, you can't pay attention.
You certainly can't pay attention to national stats, but you
can't even pay attention to the stats coming out about
Tampa because the product type batters. Just like if they
said the Dow is up one percent today, but then
semiconductor stocks and AI stocks got crushed, or the Nasdaq
(17:56):
is way up, but the Dow is down. Walmart had
you know, bad earnings or whatever. Whatever happens in the world,
it's the same thing happened in the real estate right now.
You're having this, you know, more so that I've seen
my entire career, this disparity between product types in terms
of how they're performing, how they can be financed, what
the risk tolerance is, and then of course by price
point as well. Certainly the storms had some impact on that.
(18:18):
Some things happening in other parts of the country with
the luxury market, things like, you know, some of the
draconian taxes in New York and California are driving people
to Florida. And then of course the overpopulation of Miami
is driving people to Tampa. They go down, they look
at Miami, they see the prices and they're like, man,
this is crazy. It's packed. And then they look at Tampa.
We look like a bargain. So our luxury market is
going to continue to outperform I think the next few years,
(18:41):
just because again that's the momentum and that's the direction
everything is headed, and the statistics and the data, you know,
kind of show us how those different product types are performing.
And if you want to know what's going on with
your specific property type. We worked with the technology partner
called Fellow, and Fellow brings in the data from all
of the major home value you websites. So if you've
(19:01):
looked at any of these websites, if you've looked at
your home value, our site has that data blended though
with a bunch of other sources. We believe we have
the most accurate statistical data so that you can know
what's going on, whether prices are rising in your neighborhood,
whether they're dropping, whether you've got foreclosures, whether you got
high inventory, whatever your product type is. If you're in
a condo building and you want to know what's going on,
(19:23):
our people behind or they delinquent. All of that and more,
and you can do that at Duncan Duo dot com.
You fill out a quick form, you get the information,
and it is really it saves you time. It's using
AI features that are pulling the data from bunches of
sites so that you don't have to go to each
one and compare in contrast to figure out which one's right.
We have the most accurate data. We're pulling all that
(19:45):
data in and again, you can do that yourself at
Duncan Duo dot com Dot know what's going on in
your neighborhood, with your house, with your condo building, with
your townhome community, with your luxury waterfront property, all of
those things. You can get a grasp on what's going
on on with your specific property type within this market
at duncandoo dot com. And we're back. We're going to
(20:05):
continue this conversation after a quick.
Speaker 1 (20:06):
Break, and we're back with the Duncan Duo Radio Show,
Tampa Bay's number one real estate team, over three billion
in sales, thousands of happy clients, and official partners of
the Lightning.
Speaker 2 (20:18):
Now your host Andrew Duncan. So we're back talking about
Tampa Bay real estate. You know, I talked in the
first couple of segments about the impact of the Iran
War on real estate, and then you know, I kind
of carried through with how you know, with with you know,
kind of what is happening within the different subsets of
(20:41):
the real estate market in Tampa Bay because it just
varies widely. You know, I'll have somebody calling and think
prices are dropping in their neighborhood. They're not, or they'll
think that their condo building is worth more. You know,
their condo is doing great, even though there's massive amounts
of inventory on the market. But I want to share
some some good news with you about Tampa Bay real estate.
(21:02):
I mentioned this, I've talked about this a lot that
I'm obviously very bullish about real estate. I can't be
in this business for twenty plus years and not be
and not think optimistically about the direction that it's going.
And I think the second half of this year we're
going to see a boom. I think we were going
to see it in the spring. I think we'll certainly
see an impact, a positive increase in the spring with
sales and prices, but not as much as we would
(21:23):
have because unfortunately, the hangover from the Iran War in
the volatility it causes will definitely knock some buyers back
onto the fence. So I think the second half of
this year, once we get that out of the way
and maybe some rate relief, we're going to start to
see that boom environment again where where prices are rising,
(21:43):
where you know people are buying, where more people are buying,
more people are selling, And I think that carries us
into twenty seven. But I want to talk about a
couple of local things that are wins for why I
am so optimistic about the real estate market seeing improvement
after the Iran War. The first thing is some of
(22:06):
the huge insurance wins going on right now. So Governor
DeSantis led a charge and really pushed to try and
control insurance costs because that is one of the biggest
complaints we get from customers, insurance and taxes. Right So
we'll talk about taxes, we'll talk about some of the
exciting stuff happening there. But from insurance eight point seven
percent average cuts this spring from citizens state white savings
(22:30):
up to six hundred and fifty million according to the
Florida Insurance Guarantee Association. They announced on March fourth to
kill the one percent emergency fee on policies by October one,
twenty six instead of twenty twenty eight. It's a massive
for Tampa affordability. Lower and carrying costs mean more buyers
can qualify and sellers can net more. So when people
(22:50):
when the real estate market booms, and the biggest upswings
that we've ever seen in our real estate market, well,
the first one that was really unexpected was COVID. Now
COVID happened for a couple of reasons. One, you know,
people were stuck in their homes more so they had
to be more conscientious about the environment they lived in,
so they wanted to improve that too. You saw massive,
(23:12):
you know, kind of printing of money. Truthfully, you saw
the ad juicing of the economy by you know, PPP
money and some of these free you know, kind of
loans that people use to be able to fund their
businesses and then kind of get through. And then the
biggest part of that was record record, record low interest rates.
And because we hadn't had any of the storms in
(23:33):
Tampa Bay, we had record low rates and we had
relatively affordable insurance, so our market just mooned right. Well,
now we're seeing some of those same things start to
move in the right direction. Buyers and the real estate
market massively moves based on payments, based on the payment
(23:53):
that they have to pay, and their payment is encapsulated
for most people unless you unless you take them out
of escrub pay them to directly. Your payment is including your
taxes and your insurance and your mortgage, which is your
interest rate. Well, interest rates for the last few years
have been higher than they are now, so interest rates
have come down, aka payments have come down. Second part
(24:14):
of that conversation is insurance, just like what I talked about.
Because we're another year past the storms and hopefully we
have another year or two of clean no major hurricane impacts,
we have another drop in people's payments. And then the
next segment of that is something I'm going to talk
about and I've talked about it on the show before.
(24:34):
But if you look at how buyer, how most buyers
buy based on payment, not on price, because they're they're
looking at what they can afford and they don't have
the money saved that you might think that they do.
It's very payment driven. Taxes. It has been a complaint
for a long time in Florida that our property tax
are too high, that there aren't enough exemptions, that people
(24:56):
are gouged on taxes that you know, again, it's been
out there and there is a massive push to have
in you know, what could be some incredible reform in
Tampa and in Florida about property taxes if this lines
up okay, which again, so if you think about what
we see happening, the Iran war gets done sometime soon,
(25:17):
hopefully a few weeks. Maybe then you have a new
FED chair that is pretty much had to assure President
Trump that he's gonna cut rates or he wouldn't have
been appointed. So we're going to see a drop in
the FED rate. Then you've got insurance prices that are
that are coming down. If we avoid hurricane season this year,
(25:37):
and we end up getting on the ballot in November,
a you know led not legislation and an amendment to
the Constitution that would require a sixty percent vote that
has a good chance at passing, that massively reforms, reduces
or maybe even for some people, eliminates non school homestead
(25:58):
property taxes. All those things line up to a robust
recovery in real estate. I think the second half of
the year will be very good, and I think twenty
seven will be potentially another boom. If we see rates
get down into the fours, we you know, abolish or
reduce property taxes, we keep cutting it, insurance rates, and again,
knock on wood, we avoid hurricane season, our real estate
(26:21):
market is going to skyrocket. It's just history has told
us that. Now again, there's some things that could not
work out. Maybe the bill doesn't pass, or dropping taxes
or maybe you know, maybe the FED doesn't, maybe inflation
picks back up and the FED can't cut rates as much.
But I believe all of those things line up to
a very juiced economy in the second half of this
(26:42):
year and in twenty twenty seven, where we will see
a price of rising again, more a lot more home sales,
and a better performing real estate market. All the national
economic things point to that. But again, affordability is the
biggest point of that. So if we see affordability improvement
on rates, we see affordability improvement on insurance, we see
(27:04):
affordability improvement on taxes. We Florida continues to be a
target for people to move to because of our lack
of state income taxes, you know, the Iran war gets
out of the way, and a clean hurricane season. All
of those things point to a massive boom that I
think will be incredible for real estate. I don't think
(27:25):
we'll get to COVID, you know, kind of the COVID
ramp up levels, but I do see well, I do
believe we will see a considerable increase in home sales.
I think we'll see a considerable increase in relocation. And
you know, it's never It's really never been more polarizing
in terms of people moving based on politics, but it
(27:46):
is that now. We hear it from people all the time.
They moved from a liberal state to Florida because they
want to be around or in an economy and environment
that thinks like they think people are vote, are moving
and vote you know, based on politics more than they
ever have before. COVID started it and really kind of,
you know, really exploded it, and I think we continue
(28:07):
to see that trend. Florida is going to continue to
be a red state. The numbers are pretty insurmountable at
this point, and you know you're going to get people
from these states to continue to go further left moving
here because of all of those benefits. But again, there
are some things that could you know, fail in that regard.
(28:28):
Maybe we do get hit with more bad hurricanes, maybe
the tax bill doesn't pass. I think there's a really
good chance it does pass, because here's what I think.
I think Governor DeSantis knows it's a legacy play for him.
Getting that done and on the ballot passed is something
he'll be able to celebrate as he continues to pursue
likely national political office. I think that it will. The
(28:52):
impact of that is important. But I think that the
House and the Senate in Florida and Governor DeSantis are
going to do a lot of homework to make sure
they put a bill out there that can pass the
sixth because they know if they look, there's no secret.
Then if they put on a bill that says, oh,
you know, taxes are getting abolished for everybody tomorrow. Look
there's no free lunch. A lot of the local cities, counties,
(29:12):
and communities depend on that tax money for you know,
police and schools and different things. However, if they do
some scaling out so that then they can scale up
other things or find you know, find you know, doge
level cuts and expenses, or you know, they look for
other savings. If they can scale it like that and
maybe start with the most affordable homes up to the
(29:35):
most expensive, some sort of scaling of that, I think
we'll get enough people comfortable enough to pass it, enough
homeowners and the people that vote to pass it in
a sixty percent you know, constitutional majority that's needed, so
that that is what I believe will happen. I think again,
the wild card and all of that is it passing
you know, and and then us stay clean for hurricane.
(29:57):
But if all these things line up, if we get
clean hurricane season, if we get a new FED shared
rate cuts, rates drop like they're hovering in the five.
You know, you can get into the fives now with
government back mortgages, you get you know, some relief on
insurance costs. And then last but not leafs, you get
massive relief on massive relief on property taxes. Our real
(30:21):
estate market will will will crush. And the other thing
is is that you'll have more money moving into Florida.
People that are wealthy look at taxes as their biggest
expense and they have to decide does the tax that
they pay in the area that they live in, does
that expense that they incur give them a value exchange?
(30:42):
Do they look at the state and local taxes they
pay in New York or in California and say it's
worth it for me to keep living here. And I
think the math is showing us that there are enough
of them that are saying no, it's not. I mean,
just this past week I saw the chairman and founder
of Starbucks moved to Miami in enormous hedge funds that
have always been in Cali moved, you know, tech companies
(31:05):
looking at Miami as the new hub. There's just going
to be a continued movement of people because they don't
like I think Doge and then you know, like Nick
Shirley and some of these investigators have exposed a level
of corruption that wealthy people look at that expensive taxes
and they don't believe that the government is a good
steward of the money. They don't believe that the local
(31:27):
government is taking that money and spending it on you know,
something other than you know, ridiculous pet projects. They don't
believe that it's really providing impact or benefit that they
could just it's just a waste and a drain on
their ability to grow businesses and employment and reinvest in
their companies. So I think you're going to continue to
see that movement of wealth to Florida, which again creates jobs,
(31:50):
brings people here. If all this keeps lining up and
we get a no, you know, a massive increase in
property taxes, imagine ten years down the line, some of
these people that are buying homes that have one hundred
thousand plus annual tax bills two hundred thousand plus, three
hundred thousand plus, especially if you get into the mansion
level of Miami. So imagine that goes away. That's money
(32:12):
that they now have in their pocket, in addition to
not having a state income tax, in addition to you know,
the pro business environment. That's money they can reinvest in
their businesses, that they can hire more people, they can
buy more technology, not just have it go away. So
my belief is if those things all do line up,
we get you know, all of that, we are going
to see a massive boom in the Tampa Bay and
(32:34):
Florida real estate markets that we haven't seen since COVID.
We're our real estate market will will you know Moon
and especially you know, when I talk about the luxury market,
people misunderstand this because they say, oh, well, you know
that that market doesn't really impact me. I'm a you know,
I'm going to buy an average priced home. It doesn't matter.
It does matter because they're bringing money here, they're bringing jobs,
(32:57):
they're bringing their facilities and their headquarters here, are spending
money in the local economy. But here's the part a
lot of people miss. If they're buying a let's just
start at the top. Let's just say somebody's buying a
thirty million dollar mansion. Okay, well, it's likely that the
guy buying the thirty million dollar mansion is selling his
fifteen million mansion to somebody. As you trickle down, there
(33:19):
are sales at a million five hundred that trickle that.
If those sales don't happen, the person doesn't move up
to the next price point, it creates buyers. So even
if you think it's just going to be concentrated wealthy people,
it's not. It absolutely does have other sales happen in
real estate because of those higher price transactions. It wouldn't
happen otherwise because that guy selling is ten million needs
(33:42):
to sell his ten million to buy a twenty million,
and so on and so forth. And that goes down
all the way to where somebody is having to sell
their five hundred to buy a million. Well, if they
don't buy the million, the five hundred never sell. So again,
those extra transactions get created no matter how you look
at it. That's my belief. That's what I think is
coming to Tampa Bay real estate. If you need some
help with it, with positioning, with evaluating what your choices are,
(34:04):
whether you buy, whether you whether you sell, and when
hit us up at Duncan Duo dot com and I'll
be back after a quick break here on WFLA News.
Speaker 1 (34:13):
Back to the Duncan Duo Radio Show hosted by Andrew Duncan,
official real estate agents of the Tampa Bay Lightning and
the team that guarantees your home sales with the especially
the Duncan Duo dot com. Right now, here's Andrew Duncan.
Speaker 2 (34:30):
Rapp renumber. Last segment here talking real estate in Tampa Bay.
I covered the impact of real estate from the Iran War,
the potential boom coming to real estate in Tampa Bay
later this year and next year, and I want to
talk next to the real estate agents that are out
there thinking about making a change. One of the things
that I have, you know, that I have the privilege
(34:51):
of of, you know, providing to my team is you know,
decades of experience going through these ups and downs in
the market, and through that time, I continue to stay
consistent with spending money to generate leads. So if you're
an agent out there that's struggling on transactions, you're not
getting enough leads. You know, we're spending hundreds of thousands
of dollars a month to generate leads for our agents. We
(35:13):
help our agents invest in real estate. We help our
agents grow to higher price points, to helping buyers, to
helping sellers, pretty much all the way across the spectrum
of real estate. We have a role for you and
an opportunity to grow. So if you are looking for
a change, if you're looking for a change of broker
or of leadership, or if you're thinking about getting into
real estate, I've always believed that the best time to
(35:37):
get into the real estate market isn't when it's you know,
high flying, crazy and all that, because that exposes bad
habits to where when the market corrects, a lot of
those people get crushed. And there are a lot of
them right now. And I'm sorry if it's you, but
there are a lot of them that experienced that got
into real estate when it was hot, thought it was
always going to be hot, and now they struggling because
they don't know how to adapt. So getting in at
(36:00):
that time unfortunately creates bad habits to where when the
market corrects or adjusts or stabilizes, a lot of those
agents fail out and they get out of business. Why
the failure rate in real estate is so high, so
we attempt to combat that with obviously increased advertising and
lead generation and marketing, extra coaching, role playing, and just
(36:20):
providing more and more tools for our agents to be
able to thrive and survive. We're very AI heavy. I
think one of the most AI heavy you know teams
locally in terms of using AI to communicate with our
leads and for our agents to get better and more productive.
And you know, I just think that is the way
that it's going. I've said it repeatedly on the air before.
(36:43):
I don't believe AI replaces real estate agents. I believe
the real estate agents that massively use AI to their
advantage will put out of business the ones that don't.
So AI isn't going to replace you as a real
estate agent, but the real estate agent that knows how
to adapt and use AI will. And if you're not
getting that coaching and training and that push, I told
(37:04):
my team this week, Hey, look, whatever your favorite AI
bod is, look at some of the other ones. Make
sure that you've got the right one, and then use
it and use it a lot. It teaches you, it's
your own personal assistant. Get good at your customers using it.
There are way too many real estate agents to this
day still don't even know how to use some of
the major AI tools. So we're incorporating and training and
(37:26):
coaching across that helping our agents grow despite the market
continuing to spend money on advertising lead generation because we
know a boom is coming. So if you're someone that
wants to learn about how to invest, how to build wealth,
how to grow as an agent, how to maybe go
from being working with buyers to working with sellers, or
working with regular price average priced homes to luxury homes,
(37:47):
all of those things are there and an opportunity for you,
and we would love to work with you. How to
contact us Hit us up on any of our socials
so you can go at the Duncan Duo, Twitter, Instagram, YouTube,
TikTok at the Dunkin Duo. You can also go to
join the duo dot com or you can apply for
open positions. You can also set an appointment to have
(38:08):
a confidential private consultation with us where we'll talk about
our team and look, we're not right for everybody. If
you're an agent that doesn't really want to work and
you want money to reign from the ceiling, we're probably
not the right one for you. I didn't build my
career my wealth by sitting around and waiting for terrain.
You got to go out and get it. If you're
somebody wants to go out and get it, we want
to work with you. We want to coach and teach you.
Even if you have no experience, but you just have
(38:30):
the right attitude. We would love the opportunity to talk
to you again. We are in growth mode. We're looking
to add a handful more agents to the team, and
you can apply again at Join the Duo dot Com. Last,
but not least, Look, I talked about in the first
segment about the Iran war and how that impacts real estate. Look,
there's some people out there where an increase in gas
(38:50):
prices and possible inflation are going to cause some financial
problems for some families. If you own a home and
you're interest rate is you know, set or higher or
even high six is depending on the type of product,
even probably mid sixes in some instances, you should definitely
look at doing a streamline refinance. If you have a
VA or an FAHA mortgage. You can do this at
(39:14):
Citywide Tampa dot Com. Again, that Citywide Tampa dot Com
could save you hundreds or maybe even thousands of dollars
a year by lowering your indust rate. Now, a streamline
refinance with VA or FHA. They are called different in
each companies, but I'm just going to kind of group
it in and call the streamline. If you do one
of those refinances, it just simply lowers your rate in
(39:36):
your payment. You don't have to qualify the same way
as you do. So if you're you know, if your mortgagees,
you know, if you're if the mouth of you owe,
if you're not in an equity position, or if you
don't have employment right now, the qualification process is much
different than if you're buying a home. It is very
much a streamline to lower your industrate. If you have
(39:57):
a higher interest rate than that, please go to city
wide Tampa dot com. You can talk to Melissa Morgan
or Oscar in my mortgage partner's office. They'll look at
your situation and come up with solutions to try and
help you get to a place where you can lower
your payments and maybe be able to afford the impact
that potentially inflation or increased gas prices could have. Also
(40:19):
options to potentially even with different products, maybe even tap
some of your equity. So if you need a loan,
if you're in a tough spot, please please go to
citywide Tampa dot com and my team there would be
glad to help you, you know, with your mortgage refinancing.
Needs to see if it makes sense. Sometimes it makes sense.
Sometimes we say hey, look now you should wait till
(40:39):
the next FED rate cut or you you know, you've
got a little bit of time, or let's kind of
monitor rates because rates do fluctuate, especially when the world's
vulnerable like it is right now with the war. You
see rates drop, you see them, you see them go up.
It's just the natural process that experience that that happens
when people are experiencing that fear. So on the last
(41:00):
great opportunity or refinance again, you can do that at
citywide Tampa dot com. And if you're a real estate
agent looking for a change, you want to learn how
to invest, you want to build wealth, you want to
become a better agent. You want to grow and be
held accountable. Maybe you're struggling, maybe you're not getting the
leads that you want to get. Maybe you don't like
the you know, I know some of the programs out
there where you're giving away such a large portion of
(41:21):
the commission. Maybe you're looking for an opportunity to not
pay as much of the commission split on your deals Again,
we'd love the opportunity join the Duo dot com or
at the dunkin dou owned into our social channels and
we hope you have an awesome rest of your weekend.
Tampa Bay, thanks for tuning in.
Welcome to the Duncan Duo radio show hosted by Andrew Duncan,
the official real estate agents of the Tampa Bay Lightning.
It's Tampa Bay's top selling real estate team with over
three billion dollars in sales and thousands of homes closed.
Sell your home with these guaranteed in fourteen days or
they'll buy it. Basically at the Duncan Duo dot com.
(00:20):
Here's your host, Andrew Duncan.
Speaker 2 (00:26):
Happy Sunday, Tampa Bay. Here for another week talk and
about real estate. And you know, one of the topics
you know, circulating right now and obviously kind of controlling
the national narrative is the war in Iran and the
impact on oil prices, the economy, in the stock market.
I want to talk a little bit about what that
means to real estate and kind of how the real
(00:47):
estate market is impacted by what's going on. And so,
first and foremost, anytime you have a conflict like this,
it causes fear. It causes fear, but it also causes
massive volatility. You'll see the real estate market get some
impact from it because you know, people buying their home.
(01:07):
And when I say people buying their home, I don't
mean the investors or you know, naturally the people buying
commercial real estate aren't as impacted, but I mean people,
you know, regular people buying their house, their first time
home or their second home, selling their home, buying their home. Okay.
So the first thing that impacts in something like this
(01:29):
is the fear that kicks in from a war that's
going on. The volatility and the financial markets, and that
up and down causes people to look at the money
that they have invested, the money in their four oh
one K, their IRA, the money they have in stocks,
and they see it, you know, declining. Okay, They see
the downward portion of that swinging downward, and it causes
(01:51):
them to step back and be fearful and oftentimes maybe
continue sitting on the sidelines or cancel the deal, or
in some rare circumstances, it causes them not to have
enough reserves to be able to close or to be
able to have the down payment because there's enough of
a decline in there in their asset situation that causes problems.
So any time there is something that causes fear or volatility,
(02:14):
it does have an impact on real estate, specifically for
those buyers that are buying their own home to live in.
So what if you've experienced in the first year of
the Trump administration, much more so than his first four years,
is a massive amount of volatility. You've got. You know,
you've had the tariff escalation, You've had the you know,
the Iran war. We've had multiple trade things that have
(02:38):
caused you know, upswings and down swings in the market.
There's been stuff about AI that's caused some obstacles. All
of those things slow the real estate market because buying
a home is very emotional for most people. So when
they see this and experience this, their emotion kicks in
and their fear kicks in. And one thing I've learned
through all the years in this business is that the
(03:00):
majority of home buyers are more driven by fear than
they are excitement. So they're looking for a reason to
walk away. It's the same thing that happens in the
transaction itself. You're you're seeing right now record high cancelations
of contract and part of the reason for that is
because again, the housing market hasn't really recovered. We haven't
seen a boom in real estate yet. We've had higher
(03:22):
interest rates, and then of course you sprinkle on a
little war on there, and it's got people a little
bit concerned. So if they see something in their inspection report,
they're already a little bit more afraid and they run
to safety, which is, you know, back to their apartment
or back to their mom's house or you know, or
back to the house they're living in now that's cheaper,
not the one they really want to be in. So
whenever you have these situations and these escalations and conflicts
(03:45):
and you know, trade disputes, all these things that drive
down the stock market, it does impact real estate and
it causes that fear to kind of lead buyers. Now
what I want to talk about next, though, you know,
in that same token, you have the fear that kicks
in from you know, the consumers. They're afraid. They don't
(04:06):
want to act, they want to wait for this to
get cleared up. But it's also pressing down on them
financially because you're seeing gas prices rise, their expenses rise. Potentially,
if this carries on for a while, you know, we
get back into an increasing inflation environment and then you
start to have problems with affordability even more so so.
(04:27):
Interest rates have been down at their two or three
year low or four year low even which which is
improving affordability. But if people's everyday costs start increasing because
gas gets more expensive and you know, energy gets more expensive,
that also has a negative impact. You know. So in
addition to emotional there's the financial side of what happens
(04:51):
when we have this conflict. But it's one of the
beautiful parts about real estate. That that why I always
encourage people to do what they can to push through that.
We know most of these conflicts are short lived in
terms of their the you know, I call it fear
and desperation, the selling off of the market, the declining
of assets, the stocks that drop two or three percent
(05:11):
or sometimes even more depending on how volidle it is
in a day. Real estate doesn't do that. That's one
of the nicest, most beautiful benefits of real estate is
that if you buy real estate, it is such a
slow moving market that these upswings and down swings don't
cause your house to drop two to five percent in
a day like can happen in the stock market or
crypto for example. So real estate is such a great
(05:34):
hedge against what may be going on in the rest
of your financial life with that volatility, because it's not
going to experience the swings up and down in price.
It just doesn't move like that. It's so slow moving.
You're talking longer closings. It just takes so long for
things to trickle into an impact real estate. So from
a just from a flight to safety perspective, you see
(05:58):
real estate investors, you know, start an investment pick up
some during these situations because maybe there's they're allocating or
reallocating their assets from the public markets and saying, Okay,
I'm not loving what's happening in the stock market right now.
I'm not loving this volatility. Where can I put my
money where there's still probably a pretty good gain in there,
(06:19):
but I don't have these huge swings where it's up
and it's down. And every time the president you know,
post something on x that, you know, the market drops
two percent, or every time he goes on a speech
and says that the war isn't really over yet or
it's going to be a few more weeks, and then
the market gets crushed. Your how your home value doesn't
get impacted by that. So a lot of people acting
(06:41):
and pulling away from real estate, they actually should be
doing quite the opposite because it doesn't have the same
effect that people think that it does. People think, oh,
you know, I don't want to buy a house now
because the stock market's getting, you know, wrecked. That's actually
the reason you should be buying a house or investing
in real estate. You should be re allocating assets potentially
(07:01):
if you're too heavy in the stock market in a
period of volatility. And let's face it, the next few
years under President Trump, they're going to continue to be volatile. Uh,
there's just no question about it. He is a president
of action, good or bad. I think mostly good, some bad.
Uh he is. He's in a president of action. So
you're gonna see this volatility, and it's going to cause,
(07:23):
you know, the fear to kick in for people. So
if you're an experienced investor or someone who just simply
wants to move money out of the market because they're
tired of that volatility, now is a great time to
look at real estate. We've we've we've been in this
period of time for the last years where we've seen
a little bit of appreciate. We're starting to see some
appreciation again, not a ton sales are down and rates
(07:44):
have gotten better, so it is building up it's you know,
there's there's a pent up kind of build up that's
happening with real estate. And and I think this this
war and Iran is kind of holding it back a
little bit more than it would have been had it
not happened. Had it not hapen, and I think we
could potentially see some more interest rate relief. I think
inflation was heading in the right direction. We've got a
(08:05):
new FED share coming in. I think that people were
excited about housing. I think that specifically in Tampa Bay
where a couple you know, we're another year away from
you know, the bad hurricanes that we got. I feel
like everything was heading in a really positive direction for
real estate. But this is kind of that cloud that's
hanging over the real estate market. It's going to cause
some obstacles. But it is not based in fact or
(08:30):
historical precedent that people should run away from real estate
right now. In fact, it's quite the opposite. It is
a safe haven compared to the volatility of the stock market.
So we know that President Trump has an agenda to
juice the housing market. He has said it. He's made
it clear that he wants a better real estate market.
(08:50):
He wants to protect people's assets and protect their home
values and create more home sales. We know he's very
much involved with attempting to have some impact on interest
rates as well on housing policy. I think some of
that is a little bit tabled right now. I think
some of those things would have been in motion already,
but can't really get rolling until the conflict in Iran,
(09:13):
you know, gets resolved. So, like I mentioned, it's a
psychological emotional challenge to the real estate market, but it
is a financial one too because if it continues and
gas prices rise, that does start to hurt people. It
limits their debt to income ratio that now they're incurring
more expenses, their money is going towards things they are
more expensive than they were when they first looked at buying,
(09:34):
And unfortunately, even interest rates have this volatility. So what
I can tell you as a home buyer is take
a step back and really think about why you're buying
and does the thesis of why you're buying, especially if
you're buying for the long term change, because the situation
in Iran, Does the reason you're buying change? Most of
(09:55):
the time that answer is no, And in fact, I
think it is a a wonderful safe haven that can
provide people more stability in their financial world. So if
you needed to take money out of the market, obviously
maybe not on a really bad day, but if you
needed to take money out of the market to put
(10:15):
it into real estate, psychologically, I think you're going to
see less of that. You're gonna feel less of that
up and down. And there are people that go through
these volatile periods and they say, you know what, this
is now a time for me to think about maybe
buying some investment real estate because I'm tired of this,
these these fluctuations, these wild swings up and down. And
I can tell you the wild swings up and down.
(10:37):
They're going to continue. I mean, they just are. There's
just no way around it. It's going to keep going
in that direction. It's going to keep being volatile. I
don't know how quickly Iran is going to get resolved.
It's going to cause gas prices to rise. I don't
know for how long. But again, the point is that
if you're making a choice about buying or selling your
(10:57):
home because of a war thousands of miles away, that
realistically that asset has a very safe kind of protected
bubble over it that some of the other markets don't have.
It's it's more of a safe haven long term. So
I also saw something recently because I people get a
little bit fearmongered to death about real estate, especially anyone
(11:19):
that grew up during a great recession. I say, oh,
foreclosures are rising. Foreclosures are gonna, you know, take over
the war and the loss of labor and all these things.
That we had such a run up in prices that
the majority and and there's been so many cash sales
that the majority of people, the majority of sales people
(11:40):
are in strong equity positions. The number of foreclosures right
now is one tenth, one tenth what it was at peak.
So we're not in some situation where we're dealing with
a market crash. And Iran is certainly not going to
crash our real estate markets. So I am still very
optimistic about what's coming with the Tampa real estate market.
We've just got some things to get through. I think
the second half for this year, we get through the
(12:01):
conflict with Iran, so the kind of the emotional hangover
goes away and inflation kind of gets reeled in. We
see some rate cuts this year. We get through another
safe hurricane season. I think later this year and then
in twenty seven we're going to see some really really
healthy price appreciation and a much more balanced real estate market.
That's my prediction. That's what I'm sticking to. So, if
(12:21):
you're a buyer or seller right now and you're running
away because of the conflict with Iran and the constant
messaging of the mass media keeping you afraid, which is
what it's supposed to do, so you keep watching and
keep hearing the ads and advertisers keep paying, I would
tell you to take a deep breath, take a step back,
and evaluate whether or not the thesis for you buying
(12:44):
or selling still makes sense. And it probably still does.
So we'll be back after a quick break here on
the Duncan Duo Show.
Speaker 1 (12:50):
Back to the Duncan two oh radio show, the official
real estate Agents of the Tampa Bay Likening top team
in Tampa Bay over at three billion sold in counting
no Your host Andrew.
Speaker 2 (13:01):
Duncan back here chatting about the real estate market. I
talked in the first segment about the impact of the
Iran war, oil prices and the you know, kind of
the fluctuations and volatility and stock market and its impact
on real estate. What I want to talk about next though,
is kind of a more of a local approach to
what we have going on. And so the real estate
(13:25):
market kind of has different segments, no different than the
stock market. If you look at the stock market, you
might see a day where you're like, oh, the market's down,
but chip stocks did great today, or the market's up
and Walmart and retail did bad, you know, or you
know the the you know, kind of the traditional the
big seven, the meg mag seven they call them, you know, Google, Amazon,
(13:50):
Maybe they had a great day and then smaller, you know,
small companies and mid caps got crushed. So the real
estate market is similar in terms of its asset class
as well as location. So when you hear things like, oh,
prices didn't appreciate, okay, or home sales are down, you
(14:10):
have to understand that that is that is basically encapsulating
all product types. That is, you know, there is there
is a massive difference between what is going on right
now in our real estate market with single family homes
versus condos. So when you see the statistic that says, oh,
prices are down or inventory is higher, but you break
(14:34):
that down per asset class, and it's and it changes
a lot. So for example, single family home is still
appreciating while condos are depreciating. We sell modest couple percentage
points a year over year. We saw some zip codes
well priced homes in South Tampa West chased Carol Wood
moving quickly, going above asking prices accelerating. It really does
(14:58):
depend on the product type you're buying. You could say
the stock market had a bad day, but then there's
a sector that did really good. And I think you
could say the same thing about our real estate market
in Tampa Bay right now. There are parts of Tampa
Bay that aren't performing as well as others. There are
assets like single family homes that are outperforming condos. There
are townhomes that are kind of right in the middle.
There's land, there's commercial real estate, and then of course
(15:21):
there's coastal and luxury and average price points. When you
segment off all of these, you know, these these asset
classes within real estate, they're performing much differently, probably the
most disparity between the asset classes in my entire career,
where you know, different asset classes aren't performing the same
(15:44):
as others because of unique things that have happened, and
I want to talk about those. So I mentioned before
single family homes price is still rising. You could look
at the single family home market and if you separated
out all the condos and townhomes and just looked at
single family homes, you'd say, man, that looks like a
pretty healthy market right now. That there's appreciation, it's a
balanced inventory. It's doing well. And then you add to
(16:06):
town homes, and townhomes perform a little bit better than
condos because they can be financed at a higher loan
to value and you own the land. You have a
little bit more control over the property than in a
condo where you only own your internal walls. They're kind
of the in between that you know, that might look
like also a balanced, kind of even market. And then
you look at condos and say, my goodness, it's getting
(16:29):
crushed high inventory depreciation. You know, you know, massive problems
in certain communities where those communities are just getting smoked
things like you know, insurance and engineering reports and rising
HOA fees because people aren't paying or because the building
has to be retrofitted to some of the new guidelines.
(16:50):
So the condo market performing completely different than single family
and townhomes, and it's really dragging all the averages down.
So if you look at Tamny safe man Ah, it's
kind of I don't know about the markets. It doesn't
seem to be doing great. If you average all the
product types out, that's accurate. But if you took condos out,
you'd say man Mark's doing pretty good. On that same token.
(17:12):
You can also divvy it up by price range. And
one of the things I see going on in the
current administration, you're seeing the wealth gap widen. Whether you
like it or not, it appears to be that's what's happening.
And so the luxury real estate market still kicking, you know,
still doing incredibly well. But then when you look at
affordable and lower price point homes not performing as well.
(17:33):
So if you want to really know what's going on
with your specific property type in neighborhood, you can't pay attention.
You certainly can't pay attention to national stats, but you
can't even pay attention to the stats coming out about
Tampa because the product type batters. Just like if they
said the Dow is up one percent today, but then
semiconductor stocks and AI stocks got crushed, or the Nasdaq
(17:56):
is way up, but the Dow is down. Walmart had
you know, bad earnings or whatever. Whatever happens in the world,
it's the same thing happened in the real estate right now.
You're having this, you know, more so that I've seen
my entire career, this disparity between product types in terms
of how they're performing, how they can be financed, what
the risk tolerance is, and then of course by price
point as well. Certainly the storms had some impact on that.
(18:18):
Some things happening in other parts of the country with
the luxury market, things like, you know, some of the
draconian taxes in New York and California are driving people
to Florida. And then of course the overpopulation of Miami
is driving people to Tampa. They go down, they look
at Miami, they see the prices and they're like, man,
this is crazy. It's packed. And then they look at Tampa.
We look like a bargain. So our luxury market is
going to continue to outperform I think the next few years,
(18:41):
just because again that's the momentum and that's the direction
everything is headed, and the statistics and the data, you know,
kind of show us how those different product types are performing.
And if you want to know what's going on with
your specific property type. We worked with the technology partner
called Fellow, and Fellow brings in the data from all
of the major home value you websites. So if you've
(19:01):
looked at any of these websites, if you've looked at
your home value, our site has that data blended though
with a bunch of other sources. We believe we have
the most accurate statistical data so that you can know
what's going on, whether prices are rising in your neighborhood,
whether they're dropping, whether you've got foreclosures, whether you got
high inventory, whatever your product type is. If you're in
a condo building and you want to know what's going on,
(19:23):
our people behind or they delinquent. All of that and more,
and you can do that at Duncan Duo dot com.
You fill out a quick form, you get the information,
and it is really it saves you time. It's using
AI features that are pulling the data from bunches of
sites so that you don't have to go to each
one and compare in contrast to figure out which one's right.
We have the most accurate data. We're pulling all that
(19:45):
data in and again, you can do that yourself at
Duncan Duo dot com Dot know what's going on in
your neighborhood, with your house, with your condo building, with
your townhome community, with your luxury waterfront property, all of
those things. You can get a grasp on what's going
on on with your specific property type within this market
at duncandoo dot com. And we're back. We're going to
(20:05):
continue this conversation after a quick.
Speaker 1 (20:06):
Break, and we're back with the Duncan Duo Radio Show,
Tampa Bay's number one real estate team, over three billion
in sales, thousands of happy clients, and official partners of
the Lightning.
Speaker 2 (20:18):
Now your host Andrew Duncan. So we're back talking about
Tampa Bay real estate. You know, I talked in the
first couple of segments about the impact of the Iran
War on real estate, and then you know, I kind
of carried through with how you know, with with you know,
kind of what is happening within the different subsets of
(20:41):
the real estate market in Tampa Bay because it just
varies widely. You know, I'll have somebody calling and think
prices are dropping in their neighborhood. They're not, or they'll
think that their condo building is worth more. You know,
their condo is doing great, even though there's massive amounts
of inventory on the market. But I want to share
some some good news with you about Tampa Bay real estate.
(21:02):
I mentioned this, I've talked about this a lot that
I'm obviously very bullish about real estate. I can't be
in this business for twenty plus years and not be
and not think optimistically about the direction that it's going.
And I think the second half of this year we're
going to see a boom. I think we were going
to see it in the spring. I think we'll certainly
see an impact, a positive increase in the spring with
sales and prices, but not as much as we would
(21:23):
have because unfortunately, the hangover from the Iran War in
the volatility it causes will definitely knock some buyers back
onto the fence. So I think the second half of
this year, once we get that out of the way
and maybe some rate relief, we're going to start to
see that boom environment again where where prices are rising,
(21:43):
where you know people are buying, where more people are buying,
more people are selling, And I think that carries us
into twenty seven. But I want to talk about a
couple of local things that are wins for why I
am so optimistic about the real estate market seeing improvement
after the Iran War. The first thing is some of
(22:06):
the huge insurance wins going on right now. So Governor
DeSantis led a charge and really pushed to try and
control insurance costs because that is one of the biggest
complaints we get from customers, insurance and taxes. Right So
we'll talk about taxes, we'll talk about some of the
exciting stuff happening there. But from insurance eight point seven
percent average cuts this spring from citizens state white savings
(22:30):
up to six hundred and fifty million according to the
Florida Insurance Guarantee Association. They announced on March fourth to
kill the one percent emergency fee on policies by October one,
twenty six instead of twenty twenty eight. It's a massive
for Tampa affordability. Lower and carrying costs mean more buyers
can qualify and sellers can net more. So when people
(22:50):
when the real estate market booms, and the biggest upswings
that we've ever seen in our real estate market, well,
the first one that was really unexpected was COVID. Now
COVID happened for a couple of reasons. One, you know,
people were stuck in their homes more so they had
to be more conscientious about the environment they lived in,
so they wanted to improve that too. You saw massive,
(23:12):
you know, kind of printing of money. Truthfully, you saw
the ad juicing of the economy by you know, PPP
money and some of these free you know, kind of
loans that people use to be able to fund their
businesses and then kind of get through. And then the
biggest part of that was record record, record low interest rates.
And because we hadn't had any of the storms in
(23:33):
Tampa Bay, we had record low rates and we had
relatively affordable insurance, so our market just mooned right. Well,
now we're seeing some of those same things start to
move in the right direction. Buyers and the real estate
market massively moves based on payments, based on the payment
(23:53):
that they have to pay, and their payment is encapsulated
for most people unless you unless you take them out
of escrub pay them to directly. Your payment is including your
taxes and your insurance and your mortgage, which is your
interest rate. Well, interest rates for the last few years
have been higher than they are now, so interest rates
have come down, aka payments have come down. Second part
(24:14):
of that conversation is insurance, just like what I talked about.
Because we're another year past the storms and hopefully we
have another year or two of clean no major hurricane impacts,
we have another drop in people's payments. And then the
next segment of that is something I'm going to talk
about and I've talked about it on the show before.
(24:34):
But if you look at how buyer, how most buyers
buy based on payment, not on price, because they're they're
looking at what they can afford and they don't have
the money saved that you might think that they do.
It's very payment driven. Taxes. It has been a complaint
for a long time in Florida that our property tax
are too high, that there aren't enough exemptions, that people
(24:56):
are gouged on taxes that you know, again, it's been
out there and there is a massive push to have
in you know, what could be some incredible reform in
Tampa and in Florida about property taxes if this lines
up okay, which again, so if you think about what
we see happening, the Iran war gets done sometime soon,
(25:17):
hopefully a few weeks. Maybe then you have a new
FED chair that is pretty much had to assure President
Trump that he's gonna cut rates or he wouldn't have
been appointed. So we're going to see a drop in
the FED rate. Then you've got insurance prices that are
that are coming down. If we avoid hurricane season this year,
(25:37):
and we end up getting on the ballot in November,
a you know led not legislation and an amendment to
the Constitution that would require a sixty percent vote that
has a good chance at passing, that massively reforms, reduces
or maybe even for some people, eliminates non school homestead
(25:58):
property taxes. All those things line up to a robust
recovery in real estate. I think the second half of
the year will be very good, and I think twenty
seven will be potentially another boom. If we see rates
get down into the fours, we you know, abolish or
reduce property taxes, we keep cutting it, insurance rates, and again,
knock on wood, we avoid hurricane season, our real estate
(26:21):
market is going to skyrocket. It's just history has told
us that. Now again, there's some things that could not
work out. Maybe the bill doesn't pass, or dropping taxes
or maybe you know, maybe the FED doesn't, maybe inflation
picks back up and the FED can't cut rates as much.
But I believe all of those things line up to
a very juiced economy in the second half of this
(26:42):
year and in twenty twenty seven, where we will see
a price of rising again, more a lot more home sales,
and a better performing real estate market. All the national
economic things point to that. But again, affordability is the
biggest point of that. So if we see affordability improvement
on rates, we see affordability improvement on insurance, we see
(27:04):
affordability improvement on taxes. We Florida continues to be a
target for people to move to because of our lack
of state income taxes, you know, the Iran war gets
out of the way, and a clean hurricane season. All
of those things point to a massive boom that I
think will be incredible for real estate. I don't think
(27:25):
we'll get to COVID, you know, kind of the COVID
ramp up levels, but I do see well, I do
believe we will see a considerable increase in home sales.
I think we'll see a considerable increase in relocation. And
you know, it's never It's really never been more polarizing
in terms of people moving based on politics, but it
(27:46):
is that now. We hear it from people all the time.
They moved from a liberal state to Florida because they
want to be around or in an economy and environment
that thinks like they think people are vote, are moving
and vote you know, based on politics more than they
ever have before. COVID started it and really kind of,
you know, really exploded it, and I think we continue
(28:07):
to see that trend. Florida is going to continue to
be a red state. The numbers are pretty insurmountable at
this point, and you know you're going to get people
from these states to continue to go further left moving
here because of all of those benefits. But again, there
are some things that could you know, fail in that regard.
(28:28):
Maybe we do get hit with more bad hurricanes, maybe
the tax bill doesn't pass. I think there's a really
good chance it does pass, because here's what I think.
I think Governor DeSantis knows it's a legacy play for him.
Getting that done and on the ballot passed is something
he'll be able to celebrate as he continues to pursue
likely national political office. I think that it will. The
(28:52):
impact of that is important. But I think that the
House and the Senate in Florida and Governor DeSantis are
going to do a lot of homework to make sure
they put a bill out there that can pass the
sixth because they know if they look, there's no secret.
Then if they put on a bill that says, oh,
you know, taxes are getting abolished for everybody tomorrow. Look
there's no free lunch. A lot of the local cities, counties,
(29:12):
and communities depend on that tax money for you know,
police and schools and different things. However, if they do
some scaling out so that then they can scale up
other things or find you know, find you know, doge
level cuts and expenses, or you know, they look for
other savings. If they can scale it like that and
maybe start with the most affordable homes up to the
(29:35):
most expensive, some sort of scaling of that, I think
we'll get enough people comfortable enough to pass it, enough
homeowners and the people that vote to pass it in
a sixty percent you know, constitutional majority that's needed, so
that that is what I believe will happen. I think again,
the wild card and all of that is it passing
you know, and and then us stay clean for hurricane.
(29:57):
But if all these things line up, if we get
clean hurricane season, if we get a new FED shared
rate cuts, rates drop like they're hovering in the five.
You know, you can get into the fives now with
government back mortgages, you get you know, some relief on
insurance costs. And then last but not leafs, you get
massive relief on massive relief on property taxes. Our real
(30:21):
estate market will will will crush. And the other thing
is is that you'll have more money moving into Florida.
People that are wealthy look at taxes as their biggest
expense and they have to decide does the tax that
they pay in the area that they live in, does
that expense that they incur give them a value exchange?
(30:42):
Do they look at the state and local taxes they
pay in New York or in California and say it's
worth it for me to keep living here. And I
think the math is showing us that there are enough
of them that are saying no, it's not. I mean,
just this past week I saw the chairman and founder
of Starbucks moved to Miami in enormous hedge funds that
have always been in Cali moved, you know, tech companies
(31:05):
looking at Miami as the new hub. There's just going
to be a continued movement of people because they don't
like I think Doge and then you know, like Nick
Shirley and some of these investigators have exposed a level
of corruption that wealthy people look at that expensive taxes
and they don't believe that the government is a good
steward of the money. They don't believe that the local
(31:27):
government is taking that money and spending it on you know,
something other than you know, ridiculous pet projects. They don't
believe that it's really providing impact or benefit that they
could just it's just a waste and a drain on
their ability to grow businesses and employment and reinvest in
their companies. So I think you're going to continue to
see that movement of wealth to Florida, which again creates jobs,
(31:50):
brings people here. If all this keeps lining up and
we get a no, you know, a massive increase in
property taxes, imagine ten years down the line, some of
these people that are buying homes that have one hundred
thousand plus annual tax bills two hundred thousand plus, three
hundred thousand plus, especially if you get into the mansion
level of Miami. So imagine that goes away. That's money
(32:12):
that they now have in their pocket, in addition to
not having a state income tax, in addition to you know,
the pro business environment. That's money they can reinvest in
their businesses, that they can hire more people, they can
buy more technology, not just have it go away. So
my belief is if those things all do line up,
we get you know, all of that, we are going
to see a massive boom in the Tampa Bay and
(32:34):
Florida real estate markets that we haven't seen since COVID.
We're our real estate market will will you know Moon
and especially you know, when I talk about the luxury market,
people misunderstand this because they say, oh, well, you know
that that market doesn't really impact me. I'm a you know,
I'm going to buy an average priced home. It doesn't matter.
It does matter because they're bringing money here, they're bringing jobs,
(32:57):
they're bringing their facilities and their headquarters here, are spending
money in the local economy. But here's the part a
lot of people miss. If they're buying a let's just
start at the top. Let's just say somebody's buying a
thirty million dollar mansion. Okay, well, it's likely that the
guy buying the thirty million dollar mansion is selling his
fifteen million mansion to somebody. As you trickle down, there
(33:19):
are sales at a million five hundred that trickle that.
If those sales don't happen, the person doesn't move up
to the next price point, it creates buyers. So even
if you think it's just going to be concentrated wealthy people,
it's not. It absolutely does have other sales happen in
real estate because of those higher price transactions. It wouldn't
happen otherwise because that guy selling is ten million needs
(33:42):
to sell his ten million to buy a twenty million,
and so on and so forth. And that goes down
all the way to where somebody is having to sell
their five hundred to buy a million. Well, if they
don't buy the million, the five hundred never sell. So again,
those extra transactions get created no matter how you look
at it. That's my belief. That's what I think is
coming to Tampa Bay real estate. If you need some
help with it, with positioning, with evaluating what your choices are,
(34:04):
whether you buy, whether you whether you sell, and when
hit us up at Duncan Duo dot com and I'll
be back after a quick break here on WFLA News.
Speaker 1 (34:13):
Back to the Duncan Duo Radio Show hosted by Andrew Duncan,
official real estate agents of the Tampa Bay Lightning and
the team that guarantees your home sales with the especially
the Duncan Duo dot com. Right now, here's Andrew Duncan.
Speaker 2 (34:30):
Rapp renumber. Last segment here talking real estate in Tampa Bay.
I covered the impact of real estate from the Iran War,
the potential boom coming to real estate in Tampa Bay
later this year and next year, and I want to
talk next to the real estate agents that are out
there thinking about making a change. One of the things
that I have, you know, that I have the privilege
(34:51):
of of, you know, providing to my team is you know,
decades of experience going through these ups and downs in
the market, and through that time, I continue to stay
consistent with spending money to generate leads. So if you're
an agent out there that's struggling on transactions, you're not
getting enough leads. You know, we're spending hundreds of thousands
of dollars a month to generate leads for our agents. We
(35:13):
help our agents invest in real estate. We help our
agents grow to higher price points, to helping buyers, to
helping sellers, pretty much all the way across the spectrum
of real estate. We have a role for you and
an opportunity to grow. So if you are looking for
a change, if you're looking for a change of broker
or of leadership, or if you're thinking about getting into
real estate, I've always believed that the best time to
(35:37):
get into the real estate market isn't when it's you know,
high flying, crazy and all that, because that exposes bad
habits to where when the market corrects, a lot of
those people get crushed. And there are a lot of
them right now. And I'm sorry if it's you, but
there are a lot of them that experienced that got
into real estate when it was hot, thought it was
always going to be hot, and now they struggling because
they don't know how to adapt. So getting in at
(36:00):
that time unfortunately creates bad habits to where when the
market corrects or adjusts or stabilizes, a lot of those
agents fail out and they get out of business. Why
the failure rate in real estate is so high, so
we attempt to combat that with obviously increased advertising and
lead generation and marketing, extra coaching, role playing, and just
(36:20):
providing more and more tools for our agents to be
able to thrive and survive. We're very AI heavy. I
think one of the most AI heavy you know teams
locally in terms of using AI to communicate with our
leads and for our agents to get better and more productive.
And you know, I just think that is the way
that it's going. I've said it repeatedly on the air before.
(36:43):
I don't believe AI replaces real estate agents. I believe
the real estate agents that massively use AI to their
advantage will put out of business the ones that don't.
So AI isn't going to replace you as a real
estate agent, but the real estate agent that knows how
to adapt and use AI will. And if you're not
getting that coaching and training and that push, I told
(37:04):
my team this week, Hey, look, whatever your favorite AI
bod is, look at some of the other ones. Make
sure that you've got the right one, and then use
it and use it a lot. It teaches you, it's
your own personal assistant. Get good at your customers using it.
There are way too many real estate agents to this
day still don't even know how to use some of
the major AI tools. So we're incorporating and training and
(37:26):
coaching across that helping our agents grow despite the market
continuing to spend money on advertising lead generation because we
know a boom is coming. So if you're someone that
wants to learn about how to invest, how to build wealth,
how to grow as an agent, how to maybe go
from being working with buyers to working with sellers, or
working with regular price average priced homes to luxury homes,
(37:47):
all of those things are there and an opportunity for you,
and we would love to work with you. How to
contact us Hit us up on any of our socials
so you can go at the Duncan Duo, Twitter, Instagram, YouTube,
TikTok at the Dunkin Duo. You can also go to
join the duo dot com or you can apply for
open positions. You can also set an appointment to have
(38:08):
a confidential private consultation with us where we'll talk about
our team and look, we're not right for everybody. If
you're an agent that doesn't really want to work and
you want money to reign from the ceiling, we're probably
not the right one for you. I didn't build my
career my wealth by sitting around and waiting for terrain.
You got to go out and get it. If you're
somebody wants to go out and get it, we want
to work with you. We want to coach and teach you.
Even if you have no experience, but you just have
(38:30):
the right attitude. We would love the opportunity to talk
to you again. We are in growth mode. We're looking
to add a handful more agents to the team, and
you can apply again at Join the Duo dot Com. Last,
but not least, Look, I talked about in the first
segment about the Iran war and how that impacts real estate. Look,
there's some people out there where an increase in gas
(38:50):
prices and possible inflation are going to cause some financial
problems for some families. If you own a home and
you're interest rate is you know, set or higher or
even high six is depending on the type of product,
even probably mid sixes in some instances, you should definitely
look at doing a streamline refinance. If you have a
VA or an FAHA mortgage. You can do this at
(39:14):
Citywide Tampa dot Com. Again, that Citywide Tampa dot Com
could save you hundreds or maybe even thousands of dollars
a year by lowering your indust rate. Now, a streamline
refinance with VA or FHA. They are called different in
each companies, but I'm just going to kind of group
it in and call the streamline. If you do one
of those refinances, it just simply lowers your rate in
(39:36):
your payment. You don't have to qualify the same way
as you do. So if you're you know, if your mortgagees,
you know, if you're if the mouth of you owe,
if you're not in an equity position, or if you
don't have employment right now, the qualification process is much
different than if you're buying a home. It is very
much a streamline to lower your industrate. If you have
(39:57):
a higher interest rate than that, please go to city
wide Tampa dot com. You can talk to Melissa Morgan
or Oscar in my mortgage partner's office. They'll look at
your situation and come up with solutions to try and
help you get to a place where you can lower
your payments and maybe be able to afford the impact
that potentially inflation or increased gas prices could have. Also
(40:19):
options to potentially even with different products, maybe even tap
some of your equity. So if you need a loan,
if you're in a tough spot, please please go to
citywide Tampa dot com and my team there would be
glad to help you, you know, with your mortgage refinancing.
Needs to see if it makes sense. Sometimes it makes sense.
Sometimes we say hey, look now you should wait till
(40:39):
the next FED rate cut or you you know, you've
got a little bit of time, or let's kind of
monitor rates because rates do fluctuate, especially when the world's
vulnerable like it is right now with the war. You
see rates drop, you see them, you see them go up.
It's just the natural process that experience that that happens
when people are experiencing that fear. So on the last
(41:00):
great opportunity or refinance again, you can do that at
citywide Tampa dot com. And if you're a real estate
agent looking for a change, you want to learn how
to invest, you want to build wealth, you want to
become a better agent. You want to grow and be
held accountable. Maybe you're struggling, maybe you're not getting the
leads that you want to get. Maybe you don't like
the you know, I know some of the programs out
there where you're giving away such a large portion of
(41:21):
the commission. Maybe you're looking for an opportunity to not
pay as much of the commission split on your deals Again,
we'd love the opportunity join the Duo dot com or
at the dunkin dou owned into our social channels and
we hope you have an awesome rest of your weekend.
Tampa Bay, thanks for tuning in.
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