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June 1, 2026 14 mins

Could Cuba be next as tensions rise across Latin America? Buck breaks down the latest developments involving Cuba, Venezuela, and the ongoing Iran negotiations. From renewed U.S. sanctions and pressure on Havana to major shifts in Venezuela’s oil industry after Maduro’s removal, the geopolitical landscape is changing fast.

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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Are we expecting big moves in Cuba while the Iran
negotiations continue to drag on. Also, what's happening with Venezuela.
Let's take a look at this, my friends. The relationship
to the United States and Cuba is very tense right now.
It's been adversarial for decades. Trump has been making some

(00:21):
very clear statements that state of play in Cuba is
going to change. This is not going to continue on.
And under the Trump administration's maximum pressure approach, there is
now a renewed push to isolate the communist regime in
Havana and to force real change upon it. Like I said,
after decades of just stagnation, because communists can ruin anything.

(00:43):
So Trump has taken executive actions. There are sanctions, and
there is a clear momentum of these things right now
after what happened in Venezuela. You know, Cuba is in
the midst of a severe energy and economic crisis. In
twenty twenty six this year, we've had blackouts lasting up
of twenty two hours, fuel shortages, widespread protests. Of course,

(01:07):
they just cracked down on the island has run out
of diesel and fuel. It's exacerbated the cut off. This
has been exacerbated by the cutoff of Venezuelan and oil supplies.
After Manduro's removal, the US has imposed tariffs on any
country supplying oil to Cuba and ramped up sanctions. Now recently,
this is really interesting. On Fox News, Cuban fourign Minister

(01:29):
Bruno Rodriguez Parilla went on the attack. He accused US
Secretary of State mark Or Rubio of intentionally lying to
the American people and the international community. Rodriguez claimed that
Rubio was fabricating threats to justify US actions against Cuba.
This is so classic with these kamis. They always blame

(01:50):
somebody else. It's always some imperialist or some Yankee or
some Norte Americano's fault. It's never that this is a
completely failed, old thugocracy, which is what Cuba is currently.
There's such a shame that it is this way. It
could be such a great country. So they're saying that
Rubio is lying about this. Now, Rubio has made strong

(02:12):
statements labeling Cuba a national security threat, a state sponsor
of terror in the region, and a failed state of course,
propped up by incompetence, which is not working out. So
well for them. Rubio has addressed the Cuban people directly,
urging them toward a new Cuba free from military control,
and he's warned that if he were in Havana's government,

(02:34):
he'd beat very concerned the regimes. Bluster reveals weakness, not strength.
Now that's the state of play. What's going to happen here?
As you know, recently the CIA director sat down with them.
We'll talk about that. And uh, there's the indictment of
Raoul Castro from the DOJ. President Trump's recent truth social

(02:57):
comments have cut through the noise in Trump in fashion,
of course. In posts from just earlier this month, he
declared there will be no more oil or money going
to Cuba. Zero all caps. When Trump goes all caps,
you know he's serious. He urged the Cuban regime to
make a deal before it is too late. Also all caps.

(03:20):
He has called Cuba failed country heading in one direction
down and noted that they're asking for help and that
talks are happening. Trump has signaled that Cuba could fall
off of its own volition after Venezuela, floating the idea,
rather could fall of its own volition, floating the idea
of a friendly takeover or regime change by the end

(03:41):
of twenty twenty six. The administration's Executive Order in late
January declared Cuba an unusual and extraordinary threat to US
national security, enabling further pressure. Diplomatic talks have occurred. Remember
I said this a CIA director was in Havana for
a meeting. But this is where we are. Fundamental core
change in Havana or else. I think there's gonna be

(04:04):
some Tier one operators knocking on the door with their
night vision goggles affixed of these Cuban thugs who run
that government. And with the loss of the Venezuelan lifeline,
remember this, there's a better time now than ever to
really pressure Cuba and to try to bring change to

(04:25):
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Today Birch Gold Group. All right, now, let's talk about
Venezuela a little bit. Well, just remember this. I think
Raul Castro is not going to show up in America.
We may bring him to America, may handle this the

(05:33):
old old Western way. We might have some guys with
guns show up who say, you know what you're coming
with us. Meanwhile, in Venezuela, things are I think getting
better and remember this is all because of Trump's very
bold action in both countries. I am hopeful for things
to get better with the Iran negotiations, although I think
that's a much more challenging that's a much harder lift
than Trump has really led on to the public here,

(05:56):
which I understand why because you don't want the Democrats
to be able to seize on this, certainly in a
midterm election year. But people are figuring out, I think
what's going on. Let's talk Venezuela. Though the game has
changed dramatically there. US military in twenty twenty six, as
we've discussed before, captured Nicholas Maduro and his wife. That's

(06:17):
got to be rough. This has been a real turning
point for the country. Murduro is now facing narco terrorism charges,
but he's no longer in power. Of course, he's in
a federal prison in New York, I believe, and the
interim leadership under Delsi Rodriguez has significantly improved relations with
the United States. Venezuela is in a place right now

(06:39):
where I think you could say cautious optimism is called for.
The oil is flowing, more sanctions have been eased for
energy deals, there's a push to rebuild the infrastructure in
that country. Remember, Venezuela not only has the largest proven
oil reserves in the world, larger than Saudi Arabia, well

(07:00):
as the third wealthiest country in the Western Hemisphere in
the nineteen nineties after the US and Canada. So there's
a recent history here of it being a prosperous place.
Democratic elections remain in the future, but the timeline seems
a bit vague. This is something that needs to get
worked out, and there are holdovers from the old regime

(07:20):
in the interim government. The opposition includes figures like Maria
Karina Mashado and so far the opposition has been pretty
much on the sidelines, but hopefully that will change with
an upcoming election slate. But new oil company activity is
the big story there. US firms are eyeing massive opportunities

(07:41):
in the world's largest proven reserves. As I said, Chevron
is expanding operations talks for big projects in the Orinoco Belt.
Other companies like Hunt Oil, Crossover Energy, Shell and service
firms are dusting off rigs and signing preliminary deals. A
new hydrocarbons law has opened the sector to private and
that's a huge, huge change and really important for the

(08:03):
country as well as joint ventures. I had ad moving
away from the national oil Company's total dominance of Venezuela
production is climbing toward over a million barrels a day.
Exports to the US are surging. Trump administration has encouraged
major investments potentially one hundred billion dollars or more to

(08:23):
rebuild the decrepit hydrocarbon infrastructure in that country. So rigs
are being repaired, contracts overhauled, and smaller players alongside majors
are testing the waters there. This is what we want
to see. This is really important. By the way, people
worried about GA understandably concerned about gas prices in the
US now getting a lot more Venezuelan oil online and

(08:46):
brought into the global market. But obviously it'll affect the
US market. That is helpful. It'll take time, but that
is certainly going to benefit us. So full he could
take years because of the years of neglect. Unfortunately, it's
gonna be a tens of billions of dollar process to

(09:06):
get the Venezuelan oil industry where it needs to be.
But it can happen. So there's no firm date yet.
For elections. That needs to get figured out. But in
the meantime, stabilizing oil output is the absolute focus of
this interim government with the considerable help of the Trump administration.

(09:27):
And Trump has said that event elections are going to
happen eventually after some of this energy infrastructure rebuilding, So
he's taking a pragmatic approach that prioritizes energy security and
economic leverage over a very rapid political transition. Now some
people are saying, well, but what about you know the
fact that there's still people from the regime. We learn

(09:48):
from what happens elsewhere. The biggest mistake of all mistakes
once we invaded a rock put aside the decision to
go in. The biggest mistake was debathification, where anybody who
was part of the Bath Party, which effectively meant anybody
who had any administrative role, or any security role, or
anything in the government whatsoever in Iraq before our two

(10:09):
thousand and three invasion was cut out of a new government.
So you get rid of the bureaucrats with whatever training
and expertise and connections even more important than at least
they have. You completely alienated them, and then a lot
of them went and joined the insurgency or even ran
the insurgency in different places. So that was a nightmare

(10:29):
and a terribly stupid decision that really almost cost Bush Well.
I think it did cost him his legacy, and it
certainly cost him dearly as the guy who spearheaded the
Iraq War. So we're taking a different approach. Trump's taking
a different approach where he's saying, look, we got rid
of the very bad guys. There's some other not so

(10:50):
good people left in the Venezuelan administration. Maybe they want
to play ball and improve now. So there's a reason
why amnesties. There's a reason why pardons exist as part
of the government toolkit, if you will, a governance toolkit,
because you want to be able to move forward to
something that is better and something that helps the interests

(11:13):
of the most people. So, in the case of Venezuela,
if Venezuela's future is a lot brighter because yeah, we've
got the main bad guy and maybe a few others
are going to have to face justice as well. That
has not yet been decided. But if we want to
be in a position where it's really recovering the way

(11:35):
that we are hoping for, then we might have to
turn a yes, maybe turn a not a blind eye,
because we're seeing what's going on, but we might have
to just sort of turn away from holding everybody who
was part of the thugish Maduro and before that Javez
regime accountable. So how has the Venezuelan economy improved after
Maduro's capture. Early signs are positive. GDP growth is accelerating,

(11:58):
potentially nine to twelve percent this year after consecutive quarters
of expansion, driven all by, of course, the oil recovery.
Exports have recovered sharply, some revenue is returning. Inflation remains high,
though it's moderating a little bit, and the basic food
basket is still expensive relative to wages. Humanitarian conditions are tough,
but the trajectory looks way better, and the hyperinflationary spiral

(12:21):
that was just getting worse and worse under Mardurero has stopped.
They're still high inflation, but it's not just getting worse
and worse and worse every single day. So with the
oil momentum, things are looking a whole lot better. And
that also means, by the way, they won't have the
migrant pressures that we've seen in the past. This is
so important for the US as well. We had a

(12:42):
lot of Venezuelan migrants coming here, people that need to
seeking asylum, everything else. So basically, to summarize all this,
Cuba faces mounting pressure and potential collapse, and this is
tied tied to the loss of its Venezuelan patron. Venezuela,
which is willing to play ball with America, is looking
much better and looking like things are heading in the
right direction. These stories are very much linked to their

(13:04):
key pieces of the Trump administration's foreign policy agenda. So
the coming months are going to test whether maximum pressure
yields breakthroughs or prolonged stalemates. But America's interests, security, energy,
liberty demand we stay engaged in resolute. The failed models
of the past are crumbling. The question is what replaces them. Freedom,
free enterprise, accountable governance definitely possible in Venezuela, and if

(13:27):
these thugs get ousted in Cuba, possible there too. So
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(14:12):
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Host

Buck Sexton

Buck Sexton

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